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15201  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1960 question on: May 04, 2010, 07:27:23 pm
I using swing with the same definition that Dave uses on the Atlas pages. Kennedy won North Carolina by a margin of 4.22%    in the percentages, so a swing greater than that would have been required for Nixon to win, and no endorsement is going to deliver that much of a punch in the general election for a major office.
15202  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Election 2010 on: May 04, 2010, 07:15:05 pm
So Simon thinks Gordon is a bit pitchy, does he?
15203  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1960 question on: May 04, 2010, 07:05:49 pm
North Carolina would have required a swing of about 5% magnitude.  I see Eisenhower campaigning vigorously for Nixon as being worth around ½%.  Ike wasn't as popular in '60 as he had been in '52 or '56, or is today.
15204  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1960 question on: May 04, 2010, 06:08:52 pm
You left Delaware and Pennsylvania out of your laundry list. Of those, I'd consider only New Jersey and New Mexico credible possibilities, but Eisenhower not helping enough in Missouri is also a possibility.  The only way Eisenhower would have caused a 5% vote swing by campaigning hard, would have been if he'd campaigned for Kennedy.
15205  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Election Night Drink of Choice on: May 04, 2010, 05:58:25 pm
diet root beer
15206  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Comedy Goldmine XII: A reimagining with Edward James Olmos and Mary McDonnell on: May 04, 2010, 05:25:40 pm
I once tried to rig a mock election; damn farmers children ruined everything by rigging it better than I did... though I'd have gotten away with it had the other kid counting the votes not betrayed me.
Scooby Dooby Doo!
15207  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1960 question on: May 04, 2010, 05:15:33 pm


Eisenhower has some effect, but not enough to win it for Nixon.

Nixon / Lodge 263 EV
Kennedy / Johnson 260 EV
Byrd / Thurmond 14 EV

Since Thurmond wouldn't be up for consideration in the Senate, Johnson easily wins the VP slot.

Assuming that the same House of Representatives in elected in this 1960 as our 1960, there will be 16 Republican delegations, 5 tied delegations, and 29 Democratic delegations of which at most 8 would go for Byrd (and it would have been 7 had it been anyone else since I don't see Virginia breaking Democratic ranks for anyone other than Byrd).

The point is, even if Nixon is willing to make a deal in 1960 with the Southern Democrats, it can't get him the Presidency if the election goes into the House.  How much dealmaking Kennedy has to do will depend on how many of the deep Southern delegations are willing to bolt.

16 R: IN, IA, KS, ME, MN, NE, NH. NJ, ND, OH, PA, SD, VT, WA, WI, WY
22 D: AK, CA, CT, DE, HI, ID, IL, KY, MD, MA, MO, NV, NM, NY, NC, OK, RI, TN, TX, UT, WV
7 S: AL, AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, SC, VA
5 N: AZ, CO, MI, MT, OR
15208  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: lol on: May 04, 2010, 03:33:21 pm
I don't get the humor, but that is probably because the humour depends upon some Britishism.

Here's some sign humor from South Carolina where the joke is obvious, even if you don't agree with it.



Of course, what is really hilarious are the idiots who thought in 2008 they were discovering a new joke.  The directional sign gag involving the towns of Clinton and Prosperity goes back to the 1992 election.
15209  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Opinion of the UK Independence Party on: May 04, 2010, 02:33:15 pm
Negative.

Their purpose seems to be to make the Conservative Party look reasonable. They claim to believe in "freedom and democracy", and yet they have a Lord as their Leader! He was also elected Leader with less than 50% of the vote.


No PM has gotten 50% of the vote for their party since 1931, so the vote share argument isn't particularly valid in a British context.
15210  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should FDR be removed from the dime? on: May 04, 2010, 02:22:36 pm
Altho, if Jackson is to be on any denomination, the $20 bill is the one he should be on, as one of the stands he took during the Bank War was that there should be no bill smaller than a $20 bill.  At the time, the highest value coin minted by the U.S. was the gold Eagle with a face value of $10. In other words, he was against the use of paper money when specie coins could in theory do the job.

Adjusting for inflation, his position is that there should be no bill smaller than a $500 bill.

Actually, a $1000 bill if one uses the value of gold as a guide, but we don't have specie currency anymore.
15211  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: biblical inerrancy on: May 04, 2010, 02:14:02 pm
By the same argument, that Acts ends where its does, is not proof of when it was written.  It is quite possible that the author wrote, or intended to write, a third book which continued the story of Luke-Acts but which was either never written or has been lost. Said third book would probably cover the martyrdoms of Peter and Paul, and possibly continue on to cover the destruction of Jerusalem.  The death of Luke the Evangelist is traditionally held to have happened in 84 AD, so if he is the author, he certainly could have continued the story if the tradition is accurate (and even if it missed his date of death by a good decade).

That’s pure conjecture and a bunch of rubbish, as both the Gospel of Luke and the Book of Acts are unabridged – The Gospel of Luke stated its goal (see Luke 1:1-4 and Acts 1:1-2) and completed it, therefore Acts is NOT meant to be simply a continuation of the Gospel of Luke (the history of the actions of Jesus), rather the book of Acts has a completely different focus (the history of the church)…and since Luke did NOT leave the reader hanging at the end of Gospel of Luke, there is no argument to be made that Luke all the sudden decided to leave the reader hanging at the end of the book of Acts.


I agree it's conjecture, but not that it is rubbish.  Unless all of the tradition concerning Luke is woefully inaccurate, he had plenty of time to finish the story had he written Acts in the period you believe Acts had been.  Of course, it is possible that Luke-Acts was written by someone other than Luke, but that doesn't throw any light on the question of dating.

Acts has a style consistent with the second book of a trilogy.  If Luke had planned on writing a hypothetical third book centered on the ministry and martyrdom of Peter and Paul in Rome, it would explain both why Paul's personal history ends where it does and why Peter disappears in the middle of Acts.

Even if one accepts your conjecture that Luke had not intended to end Acts abruptly, that does not prove that it was written c. 60 AD.  If Luke's death in 84 AD halted his writing, that too would explain what you consider an abrupt ending.

There are a number of details in Acts that call into question its accuracy and especially the date of its composition as being before the destruction of the Temple.  The most telling is these with respect to the date issue is the reference to the Roman province of Cilicia in Acts 6:9.  That province did not exist during the period 27 B.C. to 72 A.D.

Again, I don’t understand your point, but let me give it a try…the province of Cilicia had been under Roman control for a hundred years, then for about 30 years some of it was divided up among various client kings, all subject to Rome, and with the rest of the province falling under the governor of Syria who was also subject to Rome …and you think that greater Cilicia was NOT still commonly referred to as the province of Cilicia during that brief interlude, as if people just turned on a dime and instead of referring to greater Cilicia, started listing instead all the individual pieces in order to refer to the sum total, even though it still remained under Roman control?!  That hasn’t been my experience with people.

But, hey, I guess I have to make a note to stop calling the upper northeastern part of the United States by the name “New England”, since it hasn’t been an official confederation for a couple of hundred years, and therefore no one is going to know what geographical area I am talking about….although it is completely clear the reader would understand what geographical area to which Luke referred.

Sorry, but that is a very dumb argument you just made and is contrary every day experience.

The period of Cicilia being divided up was ten decades, not three, but that is beside the point.  While looking to buttress my argument, I see my problem was in relying upon the translation in the NIV, which stresses that Cicilia was a province, a stress not found in the original.  Absent that stress, I withdraw that point, as your point about regional names remaining in use is quite valid.

There are other problems with assuming that the dating of Acts absolutely must be before the destruction of the Temple, but none that I think would convince you that it could have been written post-Jewish revolt.
15212  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Will Other States Lose Representatives if Puerto Rico Becomes a State? on: May 03, 2010, 06:57:28 pm
Assuming that the precedent of the admission of Alaska and Hawaii is used, Puerto Rico would gain additional Representatives without any States losing theirs, but when the next census was held, the size of the House be reduced back to 435 at that time.
15213  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: U.S. State Mottos on: May 03, 2010, 06:53:27 pm
Michigan
15214  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the preceeding poster's signature thread on: May 03, 2010, 06:47:31 pm
You ought to get a yellow card for that pun.

Don't know what it's a map of.

Cornwall, with a Cornish flag.
15215  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: biblical inerrancy on: May 03, 2010, 06:40:23 pm
Also, the mere fact that the book of Acts ends with Paul living in his own rented apartment and awaiting trails shows that it was written before Paul died.

By that argument, Margaret Mitchell must have written Gone With the Wind before she was born.

what?

Margaret Mitchell was born in 1900, well after the last events depicted in her novel would have occurred had they been true.  I was trying to humorously point out the utter absurdity of your claim that because the last events depicted in Acts would have happened at a particular point in time, it proves that Acts must have been written at that time.


1)   It is simply impossible for the writer of the book of Acts not to have been an eyewitness to the events of Paul’s ministry.  His geographic and geopolitical knowledge of so many countries during the era of 35AD to 60AD is unmatched by anyone else in history, Christian or otherwise.  Only someone who had lived during that time and had traveled to those countries could make such accurate statements.  In fact, his knowledge is so unique, many of his recorded details were doubted because of lack of corroborating witnesses and this lack of corroboration was used by skeptics to cast doubt on the authenticity of the book.  But over the last few centuries, archeology has proven the book of Acts to have unsurpassed accuracy.
2)   Since the accuracy of the book proves that it was written by an eyewitness, there is no reason to end the book of Acts in the middle of Paul’s first imprisonment in Rome while awaiting trial. Therefore, the endpoint of the chronology as recorded in the book of Acts marks the time that the book of Acts was written.

There are a number of details in Acts that call into question its accuracy and especially the date of its composition as being before the destruction of the Temple.  The most telling is these with respect to the date issue is the reference to the Roman province of Cilicia in Acts 6:9.  That province did not exist during the period 27 B.C. to 72 A.D.

3)   And since the beginning of the book of Acts notes the Gospel of Luke, both written by the same author and addressed to the same person, the Gospel of Luke was written before the book of Acts was written.

No serious scholar doubts that Luke and Acts were written by the same author (traditionally Luke the Evangelist).

Even if it had been considered relevant, at least according to tradition, there were apostles such as John who lived for some years after the destruction of Herod's Temple, and who could have written commentary on the destruction of the Temple had they thought it important.

To think that the only letters John wrote are contained in the NT is crazy.  He obviously made oral and written comments not contained in the NT, so lack of surviving commentary is NOT proof that he made no other commentaries.

By the same argument, that Acts ends where its does, is not proof of when it was written.  It is quite possible that the author wrote, or intended to write, a third book which continued the story of Luke-Acts but which was either never written or has been lost. Said third book would probably cover the martyrdoms of Peter and Paul, and possibly continue on to cover the destruction of Jerusalem.  The death of Luke the Evangelist is traditionally held to have happened in 84 AD, so if he is the author, he certainly could have continued the story if the tradition is accurate (and even if it missed his date of death by a good decade).
15216  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Election 2010 on: May 03, 2010, 05:17:05 pm

Odd choice of target, since I can't see Greens switching to Tory.  Obviously Tory internal polling (or opinion) is that the seat will be up for grabs between themselves and the Greens and they hope to get Labourites who decided to go green this year to go back to Labour or flirt with Gregg and the Lib Dems.  Might work, but I doubt it.  Might even backfire and cause Labourites to vote Green to make certain that the seat doesn't go Tory.

By the way, considering that back in the Southeast Region of Atlasia there was a vote a few years ago on an anti-necromancy initiative, I'm surprised no one here has commented on the fact that Soraya Anne Kara is standing in Brighton Pavillion for Citizens for Undead Rights and Equality.
15217  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: biblical inerrancy on: May 03, 2010, 03:54:11 pm
Also, the mere fact that the book of Acts ends with Paul living in his own rented apartment and awaiting trails shows that it was written before Paul died.

By that argument, Margaret Mitchell must have written Gone With the Wind before she was born.

Also, if the NT books had been written after the destruction of the Temple in 70AD, then the NT surely would have mentioned the fact since its destruction is of extreme doctrinal importance to the NT.  (The book of Revelation is the only book that would have an excuse not to mention the destruction of the Temple since it is simply a account of a number of visions given to John about the endtimes and is not intended to given an historical accounting.)  So, outside of Revelation, there simply would have been no reason not to mention the destruction of the Temple in 70AD, demonstrating once again that it was written prior to 70AD.  And since the individual books of the NT were written in various locations by various people and over a period of decades, it is very hard to contemplate a grand conspiracy to not mention the destruction of the Temple.

Who needs a grand conspiracy?  The destruction happened well after the crucifixion, so it had no impact upon the life and times of Jesus.

While the temple buildings might be important to Dispensationalists today, that doesn't imply that Christians at the time would have thought it significant.

Assuming a pre-70 AD, writing, John 2:18-22 shows, that by the time Herod's Temple had come crashing down, Christians had come to the opinion that what happened to it was irrelevant. (A cynic might argue that the passage was written post-destruction to show why the destruction of the temple was irrelevant.)

Even if it had been considered relevant, at least according to tradition, there were apostles such as John who lived for some years after the destruction of Herod's Temple, and who could have written commentary on the destruction of the Temple had they thought it important.
15218  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The future of Puerto Rico on: May 03, 2010, 02:21:36 pm
I'd like to see it become a state that also includes the US Virgin Islands.

Problem is that the USVI speak English while PR speaks Spanish. More realistic would be to try to merge the USVI with Florida.

That wouldn't make any sense, we're WAY to far away from them to have effective govt.

It would cause a lot of problems for the DMV to have part of the state drive on the right and part on the left.

I know that's true about the BVI but I'm pretty sure the USVI drives on the correct side of the road, it's been a long time since I've been though.

USVI drives on the left, which is the practice it had when we acquired them from Denmark in 1917.
15219  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House passes Puerto Rico Democracy Act HR 2499 on: May 03, 2010, 02:08:14 pm
Cheesy Finally, a new state! (and now 540 EVs.)

It would have to be 541 or above no state can have under 3 EVs

But if the HoR was reset to 435 Representatives at apportionment after Puerto Rico becomes a State (as happened after the admission of Alaska and Hawaii) then in the long term there would be a gain of only 2 EVs for the increase in the Senate to 102 Senators.

Temporarily there would be a 7 to 8 EV gain depending on how Puerto Rico does in the 2010 census if Puerto Rico became a State in 2012.  (Puerto Rico would most likely gain 6 Representatives, which is what it would have under the 2000 Census, assuming either that all the other States kept their Representatives or there were still only 435 Representatives, but its estimated population growth this decade is slower than the national rate, so it is possible that it would only merit 5 under the 2010 Census.
15220  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the preceeding poster's signature thread on: May 02, 2010, 09:41:39 pm
Excellent taste in Bond movies.  It just was that the public wasn't in the mood for a James Bond film where there wasn't the typical Hollywood happy ending.

Still, if the public had known that it would be getting Roger Moore someday as a result of what they wanted, I think that they would have embraced George Lazenby.
15221  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The US population after the Census. on: May 02, 2010, 09:12:31 pm
I've yet to see anyone put forth a reason why more congresscritters would equal better government.

For better or worse, one of the jobs of a Representative is to provide constituent services, i.e., act as an ombudsman, for the people in their district.  Hence, more Critters would mean fewer people per Critter.

For another, smaller districts means that they are likelier to reflect the concerns of those districts as it would easier to make those districts homogeneous and compact.  For example, the concerns specific to Lexington and Beaufort Counties don't share much in common, even though they are both fairly Republican areas at opposite ends of the 2nd District.
15222  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Nevada, 1880 on: May 02, 2010, 12:47:38 pm
Chinese exclusion might have played a role since Hayes had vetoed a Chinese exclusion bill in 1878, but since Arthur didn't veto a similar bill in 1878, I'm fairly certain it wasn't a Republican plank to oppose it in 1880, as the only major difference in the two parties platforms was the tariff. Hancock was not only a veteran, he had served out west, both before and after the Civil War, though his actual service in California and Utah Territory in particular  had been before the War.
15223  General Politics / Economics / Re: The Problem with Rent Control on: May 02, 2010, 08:09:38 am
In theory, rent controls can work as a short term solution to stabilize rents during a temporary disruption of normal supply and demand.

In practice, said controls almost never are used only for a short term.
15224  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the preceeding poster's signature thread on: May 01, 2010, 10:13:13 pm
A ridiculously large picture for a signature.  I'd also prefer polar bears if you have to have a Coca-Cola advertisement.  Besides, in the future, they may be as mythical as the Santa Claus that Coke also uses in their wintertime ads.
15225  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: The US population after the Census. on: May 01, 2010, 09:42:11 pm
Agreed. Make the total number of Representatives 1,000. What is so special about the number 435, anyway?

We'd need to either give Representatives smaller offices (as if the House would ever agree to that or build more House office buildings (as if the Senate would ever agree to that).

More seriously, I don't see where we're going to ever get a sudden jump in the size.

Besides, we don't need 1,000 Representatives.  The ideal size according to the cube root axiom would be 677 for a population of 310 million, and even for States extreme prediction of 375 million, we only need 721.

I like the cube root axiom as it provides a good balance between wanting a small body to make the legislative process work better (The Senate's inability to work smoothly is due to the supermajority filibuster.  The House would be even worse than the Senate if Pelosi needed to corral another 43 Representatives to get anything done.) and larger body to allow Representatives to serve fewer constituents.

[EDIT: I must have been channeling the spirit of Carl Sagan earlier. Wink]
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