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15201  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What percent will Gary Johnson get Nationwide? on: July 17, 2012, 01:51:11 am
0.5% - 1.0%  The libertarian party has only done better than 1% once and this is not the year, nor is Johnson the Candidate who can duplicate that feat.

Johnson is a good candidate and this seems to be a year where third parties could overperform...

1-1.5%. God, why didn't he run for the Senate?

Exceeding 1.0% would require Johnson to do more than twice as well as any Libertarian candidate has done since 1980 when Clark/Koch hit 1.06%.  It's just not gonna happen folks, not unless Romney or Obama implodes so that people don't mind casting a wasted ballot.
15202  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Train to Nowhere: Full Speed Ahead on: July 17, 2012, 01:43:06 am
The sad thing about this project, and something the lefties here should really look at seriously, is that it will be environmentalists that will have killed this project. And yes this project will be killed. I would vote to kill it if given a chance and I am sure a majority of Californians agree with me. Does this mean that I don't like high speed rail or that I think it is a bad idea? No, of course not. Indeed, I did vote for the bond measure to create the high speed rail system. But I have to come to realize this state is full of a bunch of retard nimby dumbfukcs and that is why we cannot build anything nice anymore. Some stupid lizard or who knows what is more important than building something of this scale that really had the chance of transforming how people traveled within the state, and perhaps within the nation. But no, that will not happen due to the stupid environmentalists. Oh, the irony.

I understand that there are some environmental lawsuits against it, but those could just be NIMBYs. In any case, I imagine that most environmentalists are for this. The choice between California HSR and 5 more airport runways, and thousands of new freeway lane miles is pretty obvious.

O really?  The brand new rights of way that significant sections of any high-speed rail project will require will probably use up more land than any equivalent airport/freeway construction.   And that assumes that it doesn't turn into a low-usage white elephant so that those freeway and airport expansions don't get built anyway.  A case can be made that under certain conditions high-speed rail would be the eco-friendly option, but that those conditions actually are the case is far from obvious.
15203  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the Preceding Poster's Signature Thread VIII on: July 16, 2012, 11:22:45 pm
Nice cover.

There are plenty of such quotes that can be used to nicely rationalize away reaction; all of them are equally worthless.

If you want action that is what Congress is supposed to be for.
15204  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What percent will Gary Johnson get Nationwide? on: July 16, 2012, 10:37:38 pm
0.5% - 1.0%  The libertarian party has only done better than 1% once and this is not the year, not is Johnson the Candidate who can duplicate that feat.
15205  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: As the population grows... on: July 16, 2012, 04:26:23 pm
No state unfairly overrepresented? Ever hear of Wyoming?
Wyoming has enough population that even without the guaranteed seat for being a State it would still have a Representative of its own, so it isn't what I would call unfairly overrepresented.  Granted, the disparities between States would be reduced if we had enough Seats that every State would have at least two Seats, but that only would reduce us from 2:1 to √3:1 (1.73:1) as the maximum disparity possible.
15206  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Supreme Court issues split decision on Arizona immigration law on: July 16, 2012, 03:05:19 pm
Verify workers before they are hired. Increase enforcement to ensure proper verification is happening and of course make e verify available to help businesses and employers comply.

So, if alien s illegally present in this country are employed off the books as drug smugglers, prostitutes, etc, its ok since those lines of business don't use eVerity?

I do wonder why you keep acting as if the majority of illegals come here to commit other crimes.

Then catch the drug smugglers as you would regularly ( prostitution shouldn't be a crime) and then deport them. The US already departs criminals at high rates and that should continue. Of course the magnitude of the crime should be taken into account as well.

Agreed, and not just prostitution.  We should legalize, regulate, and tax the prostitution and recreational drug industries.  (Not all drugs, but the detrimental side effects from the international drug trade in marijuana, cocaine, and opiods combined with it being more cost effective to treat the use of those drugs as a medical problem rather than a criminal problem mean that I favor legalizing those.)
15207  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: McCain 2008 vs Romney 2012 on: July 16, 2012, 02:45:31 pm
Until McCain botched the collapse by acting like a chicken with his head cut off, he had a reasonable shot of winning.  In just two weeks, my prediction went from a 286-252 Obama victory (and my predictions had been trending towards McCain for several weeks) to a 364-174 Obama victory because of that.

To a large extent, Palin was the scapegoat for McCain's collapse.  Not that her perception didn't hurt the campaign, but McCain did far more damage to the campaign than Palin did.
15208  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Purple Strategies: Close races in VA, CO, OH, FL on: July 16, 2012, 02:25:57 pm
On a lighter note, they also chose handful of companies and asked which candidate voters associate more with those companies:

BMW
Romney- 46%
Obama- 22%

Which is why those who think Obama has any chance of winning South Carolina are delusional.
15209  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The historical trend I on: July 16, 2012, 02:21:35 pm
I still maintain that if Perot had not entered the race, Bush could have kept those doubts about Clinton uppermost in the public mind.

Ok, but the fact that you have to give him states that Dukakis won with 51% and 55% just to barely nudge him past 270 shows how difficult a case this is to make.

Your point is well made.

What you fail to understand is that Ernest automatically disagrees with any point I make.


What you fail to realize I made this point in the other thread well before you chimed in.  Don't flatter yourself CARL.  The opinions I hold are not determined in the slightest by yours.
15210  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: As the population grows... on: July 16, 2012, 10:28:04 am
How does a smaller House work to the advantage of smaller states? Montana has most number of people per congresscritter.

That's because Montana is at the sour spot for apportionment under our current system, just under √2 of an ideal House seat.  If it had had just a few more people then it would would had two Representatives and replaced Rhode Island for the distinction of having the least number of people per congresscritter.

Right now we have no States that are unfairly overrepresented because of the guaranteed House seat.  Back in 1900, Nevada had a population of only 42,335 at a time when an ideal House seat had 194,182 people.  That is the worst historical mismatch.
15211  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Train to Nowhere: Full Speed Ahead on: July 16, 2012, 10:04:02 am
IL seems to have taken a quite different approach. There seems to be a more incremental approach on the Chicago to St Louis proposal. The approval actually began in 2004 and the initial plan is to add track and improve crossings to bring the speed up to 110 mph. The state's commitment is $400 million to upgrade the existing service of five trains a day each way with $1.2 billion from the Feds. The upgrades are scheduled for completion by 2017. Based on those results, the state can look at next steps which may include further speed increases.

110mph? Is that it? We can get 140mph in this country on the East Coast Main Line.

Going faster than 110mph will generally require building along new rights of way with shallower curves.  That's what is keeping us from building truly high speed rail in the corridors that could use it.
15212  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Alaska in play? on: July 16, 2012, 09:55:24 am
The only way Alaska would in play is in Johnson or Goode somehow manage to catch fire and become a significant third party option, and if that happens, Romney's got bigger problems than Alaska.
15213  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama campaigning in Virginia on: July 16, 2012, 09:49:51 am
Why is it snowing on the President?

It looks like a double exposure -- the President against an astronomical shot.

Or perhaps the camera has imaged water droplets from a mister that is between the camera operator and the President.  Those can help keep things cool when you're outside.
15214  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The historical trend I on: July 15, 2012, 11:36:47 pm
I still maintain that if Perot had not entered the race, Bush could have kept those doubts about Clinton uppermost in the public mind.

Ok, but the fact that you have to give him states that Dukakis won with 51% and 55% just to barely nudge him past 270 shows how difficult a case this is to make.

Would it make you happier if I swapped out Michigan which Bush won in 1988 with 54% for Iowa and Wisconsin?  It wouldn't affect the EV total at all from the quick-and-dirty map I prepared using a uniform split of the Perot vote to get a rough tie in the PV for Bush and Clinton.  Plus there are several other States I gave to Clinton for which a case could be made that Bush would have kept from 1988 if Perot had not entered the race.
15215  General Politics / International General Discussion / North Korea shake up on: July 15, 2012, 11:16:36 pm
North Korea military head Ri Yong-ho 'removed from post'
Quote from: BBC
North Korean military chief Ri Yong-ho has been removed from all official posts, according to state media.

As well as being head of the army, he was vice-chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission and held top posts in the ruling Workers' Party.

In a short statement, the party said Mr Ri had been removed from his posts "because of illness".

Hard to say what in anything this means other than Kim Jong-un is likely putting his stamp on things. On the other hand, Ri is 69 years old, so it is possible his illness is real rather than political, but in either case, it's likely permanent.
15216  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The historical trend I on: July 15, 2012, 09:14:54 pm
I still maintain that if Perot had not entered the race, Bush could have kept those doubts about Clinton uppermost in the public mind.
15217  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Updated ballot access news for 3rd party candidates on: July 15, 2012, 09:01:41 pm
When's the deadline for each state? Pundits were saying that Johnson was supposed to make it in all 50 states.

Ballot Access News keeps track of those details for all the minor parties in their monthly newsletter, tho if you aren't a subscriber, you have to wait a month for the issue to go up on the website.  Oklahoma looks to be sticking point, as they have the strictest ballot access laws of any State.  Johnson needs to have submitted 43,890 signatures there by today.
15218  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: JZ Analytics (Zogby): Obama+3, but up 6 if Gary Johnson is included on: July 15, 2012, 07:54:41 pm
I love it how Zogby has renamed himself JZ.

Oh, and Johnson isn't going to get close to 5% on election day.

You forgot the Decimal Points.

.5% is quite possible.
15219  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The historical trend I on: July 15, 2012, 07:39:15 pm
Without Perot's attacks, Bush would not have been sub-40% in approvals.  Before Perot jumped into the race, Bush was leading Clinton in the polls, and without having to deal with Perot, his campaign could have maintained its focus on Clinton.  Instead, when Perot jumped in and led the race for a while with Clinton trailing in third, then for obvious reasons the Bush campaign had to pivot and focus on Perot and give Clinton the breathing space he needed to regroup.  Perot's peculiar personal charges against Bush also helped to ensure that when he lost support, his ex-supporters tended to go to Clinton instead of Bush.
15220  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The historical trend I on: July 15, 2012, 02:06:39 pm
As I mentioned in the other thread, the Presidents who ran and lost their reelection all had a smaller margin of victory in their first election than Obama did.

So, how do you explain the case of Bush I, who received 53.37% of the popular vote in 1988, but was defeated in 1992, while Obama received 52.87% of the popular vote in 2008?

Hmm...


Perot.  Factor him out of the race and H.W. at a minimum ekes out a narrow victory in a close contest. 



Bush/Quayle: 273
Clinton/Gore: 265

Obama won't be taking fire from two major opponents as H.W. did.  Further, to the degree third parties have an effect this year, it's more likely going to be Romney than Obama who is hurt.  Not that Obama can't lose, but it won't be unexpected if he wins.
15221  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: SCRANTON RUNS OUT OF MONEY, Cuts All City Salaries To Minimum Wage on: July 15, 2012, 01:20:45 pm
Ernest,

Not surprised you fail to understand.

Bill Scranton, was a 1964 nominal Republican, who we noted was morally bankrupt.

Not surprising that a city which bears his name (well, actually I believe his grandfather's name) is financially bankrupt.

If you ever mentioned him before, it wasn't in this thread.  Other than he opposed Goldwater for the nomination in 1964, I don't see why you might think he was morally bankrupt.  BTW, the city was named for his grandfather's second cousins who founded the Lackawanna Steel Company.
15222  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: "ISideWith.Com" Electoral Map on: July 15, 2012, 12:54:38 pm
90% Gary Johnson
on economic, domestic policy, foreign policy, science, healthcare, and social issues.

86% Ron Paul
on domestic policy, foreign policy, healthcare, social, immigration, and environmental issues.

63% Jill Stein
on healthcare, foreign policy, and environmental issues.

63% Jimmy McMillan
on healthcare and immigration issues.

62% Barack Obama
on science, foreign policy, and environmental issues.

60% Mitt Romney
on immigration and environmental issues.

34% Virgil Goode
no major issues.

20% Stewart Alexander
on environmental issues.

Party Time!

89% Libertarian
63% Green
62% Democratic
60% Republican

Science
I side the most with Barack Obama and Gary Johnson on 97% of science issues.

the Economy
I side the most with Gary Johnson on 91% of economic issues.

Domestic policy
I side the most with Ron Paul on 93% of domestic policy issues.

Healthcare
I side the most with Jill Stein on 97% of healthcare issues.

Immigration
I side the most with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul on 89% of immigration issues.

Foreign Policy
I side the most with Ron Paul on 96% of foreign policy issues.

Social
I side the most with Ron Paul on 96% of social issues.

the Environment
I side the most with Barack Obama on 99% of environmental issues.
15223  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Fall Debates on: July 15, 2012, 12:36:34 pm
WhyteRayne, while Romney won't be a disaster at the debate, neither will he be able to land a heavy blow.  A tie works to Obama's advantage not because of how the MSM might spin it but because Romney will likely be in the position that Gingrinch was in during the primaries of needing to land heavy blows on his opponent and his campaign crumbling when he failed to land them.

I don't think Romney needs to "win" the debates.  As I said, I thought Bush lost all three debates in 2000, but he still won.  But while I thought Bush "lost", I thought he never lost BADLY.  He did decently -- in boxing terms, Gore was winning by close decisions, not knockouts.

Bush still needed unintended help from Nader to win, but if anyone is hurt by the third parties this year it is more likely to be Romney than Obama.  Also, if one is going to compare Gore and Bush to Romney and Obama, I'd say Gore is more like Romney than Obama and Bush is more like Obama in terms of their political abilities which is what will matter most to voters who don't decide based purely on the issues.  Issues voters aren't likely to be swayed at all by the debates.
15224  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Fall Debates on: July 15, 2012, 10:12:58 am
WhyteRayne, while Romney won't be a disaster at the debate, neither will he be able to land a heavy blow.  A tie works to Obama's advantage not because of how the MSM might spin it but because Romney will likely be in the position that Gingrinch was in during the primaries of needing to land heavy blows on his opponent and his campaign crumbling when he failed to land them.
15225  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will the 2012 Election be a repeat of... on: July 15, 2012, 09:02:32 am
South Carolina is most definitely part of the Red Wall.  McCain won South Carolina by 9 points.  Everything points to Obama not doing as well in 2012 as he did in 2008, the only question is how much worse than 2008 will he do. And last but not least, even if By some miracle, Obama were to gain a 10 point national swing, he'd still lose.  We have a highly polarized electorate here. The only way Obama has a chance of winning South Carolina is if Johnson and/or Goode take large chunks of the vote away from Romney,

Georgia also ought to be counted as part of the Red Wall.  While it would go for Obama if he were able to conjure up a 400+EV landslide this year, that ain't happening.
In South Carolina, Obama got 45 percent of the vote, to McCain's 54. And the last South Carolina poll had Obama up 3 over Romney, 45-42. In a 9 point swing Obama would get 54 percent of the vote, so no, its not part of the Red Wall. And Georgia, Obama got 47 percent to McCain's 52. He only lost by 3 points. Demographic shifts means Georgia will probably be a swing state in about 2020. Remember, 4 years ago, the thought of Obama taking Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina would have gotten someone smacked down on this forum. Face it, the GOP's base is dying out, and young people are overwhelmingly Democratic. The GOP needs to branch out.

The South Carolina polls in the Forum database all date to January or earlier, a time when a lot of Republicans had not yet decided whether to embrace the Mittbot.  (And the last three which generate that 45-42 number you speak of are all Registered Voter polls which typically overstate Democratic performance at the voting booth.)  That 45% for Obama is pretty much his cieling in this State.  He definitely will not get a majority of the vote here and his only chance of winning here is if a third party contender takes enough votes from Romney that Obama can win with something like a 45-43-10 plurality. (Numbers do not add to 100 due to rounding and other third parties.)  South Carolina is not and will not be in play this year.
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