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15201  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Israel on: August 08, 2009, 11:50:47 pm
By Israeli law all settlements, except for some neighborhoods annexed to Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, are not located in Israel.  From the Israeli official standpoint, Israel runs a military occupation regime there and the government (in Israeli-controlled areas) is under the Ministry of Defense. No attempt has ever been made to annex those areas. So, at least from the standpoint of Israeli law, these areas are not part of Israel. Do you know of any other state or official entity, that, actualy, considers these to be part of Israel?

Israel could annex these territories and make them part of Israel, at least, from its own standpoint. However, it would then have to decide, what to do w/ the native population. It could be granted Israeli citizenship and allowed to vote in Israeli elections: in which case, I believe, most of us would agree that this is now an internal affair of the wonderful and democratic Israeli state. It could keep the population as non-citizens and have it continuously disenfranchized. In that case, at least in my book, it would not be much different from the apartheid South Africa, and should be treated as such. It could also expel and/or exterminate the population, which, I would conjecture, most of those around would take as casus beli (and, likely, subject to war crimes prosecution).

Since it Israel doesn't consider it part of Israel, how about revoking the right of the settlers to vote in Israeli elections since they don't live in Israel?
15202  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP name change? on: August 08, 2009, 06:48:02 pm
SDP would be good, if not better than NDP. More fitting and more telling than a name like NDP which can apply to any type of party, from fascist to Trot.

Progressive? No. There can only be one Progressive Party, the rural 1920s Progressives.

Well, they could change the name to the New Progressive Party. Tongue
15203  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will we ever elect a LGBT president? And if we do, when? on: August 08, 2009, 12:24:07 am
I do not expect to see an openly LGBT president be elected in my time.  Some of the youngsters on the forum will likely live to see one elected, but not I.

Don't like this phrasing.

Say the average President lasts 1.5 terms, or six years. That means, in the next 90 years (the longest we might expect the youngest members of this forum to live), there will be 15 Presidents. Assuming that it would not be possible for an LGBT President to be elected at least until gay marriage is legal nationwide, anti-discrimination laws are in effect nationwide, etc., that's around 24-30 years lopped off, or about 4-5 Presidents. That leaves 10-11 Presidents, one of whom has to be LGBT.

But the LGBT population is less than 9-10% of the population, probably close to 5% or a little less. So the odds are against one being elected in the next 90 years even if an LGBT candidate would stand an equal chance to a straight candidate 24 years from now. Certainly the situation will not reverse such that an LGBT candidate is more likely to be elected than a straight candidate, in which case we should not expect an LGBT President in our lifetimes--although, assuming around 5 major primary candidates at each election, a major LGBT candidate in a party primary would be very likely much sooner than that.

Actually, in order for it to be likely the EV (expected value not electoral votes) of the proposition 'How many LGBT presidents will be elected in the next 90 years' needs to be above 0.5, not above 1.  Plus, once we reach the point where an LGBT candidate becomes electable, I would say the electability of such candidates will continue to rise with each election even if it favors such candidates above others until the first such candidate is elected, at which point, electabilty of LGBT candidates will decline back to where it would have been without the "first" effect.
15204  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Planning a holiday to the States on: August 07, 2009, 08:23:59 pm
To borrow a slogan from WWII, "Is this trip necessary?"  What precisely is it you hope to do here that you couldn't do in Britain without engaging in a CO2 binge by flying and sabotaging the War on Climate Change?



Or alternatively, what other things might you do with the bonus as you spend it all like an ant instead of saving it like a grasshopper?
15205  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: most overrated poster? on: August 07, 2009, 08:08:22 pm
kljackson

I disagree.  kljackson is the most consistent member of the forum we have.  Granted, kl is predictable, but that predictability is precisely why jackson is not overrated.
15206  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Forum Political Census on: August 07, 2009, 06:34:36 pm
Independent, tho since I no longer participate in Atlasia per se, I refrained from voting in the poll.  In any case, it is impossible for me to be a registered member of a party, as South Carolina does not ask that question when register to vote.
15207  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you Support "Cash For Clunkers"? on: August 07, 2009, 06:12:10 pm

1) Pulls forward demand from the future, so when the subsidy ends, guess what will happen to the demand - it'll go below the long-term trendline in the future (whatever that number is - it's presently unsettled, I'll guess 10 million units a year, but that may be an overshoot).

I'm presently undecided, but this is the most worrying argument I've been hearing.  Are we simply pulling in tomorrow's sales for today?

If we were stripping the clunkers for parts, we would, but since the engine blocks are being rendered useless, we're drying up the supply of used cars. (Which has independent car mechanics grousing because the program is taking away fixable old cars that they can make money from repairing.) So while the program's direct effect is to cannibalize future sales, much as any rebate program does, the ripple effect from the smaller supply of used cars should raise their values and bump some people who would have bought recent used cars into the new car market instaed.  Net effect is some cannibalization, but not on a 1 for 1 basis.
15208  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: What does the Confederate Flag mean to you? on: August 07, 2009, 05:45:47 pm
And WillK, lets see how tolerant the Northern Army was of the Jew.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Order_%E2%84%96_11_(1862)

I'm right, you're wrong and that's the end of the story.

"Wikipedia does not have an article with this name."

lol

It works just fine for me, moron.



You put a dead link and i am the moron?

Dumbass.

Rather than castigate States for not realizing that the auto url detector didn't work quite right, you could have either pointed out the problem politely, or doing as I did and create the appropriate redirect on Wikipedia.  Instead, you chose to be a Jackass.  In any case I prefer Dumbasses to Jackasses.
15209  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will we ever elect a LGBT president? And if we do, when? on: August 07, 2009, 05:30:16 pm
Iowa can be explained by the fact that it was judges and not the electorate that made the change.

Some would say we already elected an LGBT president in 1856, but if Buchanan were gay, he certainly wasn't open about it, nor could he have been back then.I think it is safe to assume no openly LGBT person will be on Republican ticket for at least 75 years.

Nor would a Democratic LGBT nominee win the head of the ticket before then. Not only will the LGBT movement need to have won its fight to have LGBT issues treated the same as ethnic or women's issues, but a successful nominee would need to have such issues sufficiently behind them that an LGBT candidate can run without eir candidacy being perceived as something only for LGBT people to support.  The current state of the LGBT community has far more in common with the Negroes of 1948 than the African-Americans of 1968.  The Republican convention of 1992 has definite similarities to the Klanbake of 1924.

I do not expect to see an openly LGBT president be elected in my time.  Some of the youngsters on the forum will likely live to see one elected, but not I.
15210  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you Support "Cash For Clunkers"? on: August 07, 2009, 04:51:50 pm
The idea is good, but like most gov't programs the logistics aren't there

How much are we helping the environment if you can trade in a 16 MPG car and get an 18 MPG Hummer?

It's cute how you apparently know absolutely nothing about the requirements of the program.

There is a kernel of truth here.  It is possible to get the maximum $4500 credit with only a 2MPG difference between old and new vehicles, but both need to be class 2 trucks.
15211  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ohio Sen. George Voinovich-the problem with the GOP is the rednecks on: August 07, 2009, 01:29:49 pm
Bono, a Federal law mandating concealed carry reciprocity would be just as constitutional as for example a Federal law mandating that marriage reciprocity (i.e. States could be forced to recognize gay marriages).  Neither proposed law would be constitutional though, as they both contravene the 10th Amendment.

It would be constitutional under the full faith and credit clause. The proposed law would respect the public policy exception, since the two states that do not allow concealed carry would still not be required to recognize any permits.

No, it would make a mockery of the public policy exception.

Quote from: Pacific Employers Ins. Co. v. Industrial Accident Comm'n, 306 U.S. 493 (1939)
Full faith and credit does not here enable one state to legislate for the other or to project its laws across state lines so as to preclude the other from prescribing for itself the legal consequences of acts within it.

In that case a Massachusetts employee of a Massachusetts company with a California subsidiary was injured while temporarily at the California subsidiary. Both California and Massachusetts had workman's compensation laws, and the employee was entitled to file a lawsuit under California law, but not under Massachusetts law. (Massachusetts law at the time allowed employment contracts to require the use of binding arbitration for such claims, California law explicitly banned employment contracts from having binding arbitration.) The court held 8-0 that California was not required to use Massachusetts' law to determine whether the employee could file suit in a California court of law.

Similarly, a state may not be required to use the law of another state to determine if a person may carry a concealed weapon, nor may it be required to accept the validity of marriages contracted in another state if such marriages could not be legally entered into in that state.

Federalism means that on these issues, as well as many others, each State decides for itself what shall be the proper policy in that State, without the interference of other States.
15212  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / Re: SC: Dem SoE Jim Rex forms exploratory commitee for Gov race on: August 06, 2009, 10:09:51 pm
I'm supporting Haley.  As far as Rex goes, it's amusing that the man who hasn't done jack to fix South Carolina's pitiful school system seems to think he can fix the whole state.

To be fair, he's had to spend most of the past two and a half years defending the existing system against those who would rather destroy it instead of improving it.

Tactically, I think the Democrats would be better off if Rex runs for reelection and Sheheen wins the Gubernatorial nomination, but this is likely the only chance Rex will have to run for Governor, as he would be in his 70's come 2014.
15213  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Ohio Sen. George Voinovich-the problem with the GOP is the rednecks on: August 06, 2009, 09:28:49 pm
Was this the reason this scumbag voted against concealed carry reciprocity?



No, probably just because he's read the constitution.

Oh, was what he read in the part giving the President the power to run car companies?

Bono, a Federal law mandating concealed carry reciprocity would be just as constitutional as for example a Federal law mandating that marriage reciprocity (i.e. States could be forced to recognize gay marriages).  Neither proposed law would be constitutional though, as they both contravene the 10th Amendment.

As for GM and Chrysler, the Federal Government owning large chunks of them is at least as constitutional as owning shares in the Bank of the United States, and that issue was settled back in the 19th century.  Indeed, as an exercise of the Bankruptcy Clause, it could be argued that it is on a stronger Constitution footing.
15214  Election Archive / 2010 Elections / SC: Dem SoE Jim Rex forms exploratory commitee for Gov race on: August 06, 2009, 08:33:20 pm
South Carolina's only current Democratic statewide office holder, State Superintendent of Education Jim Rex, filed the paperwork today with the State Election Commission for an official exploratory committee.  He has stated that he may run for governor, for reelection, or not at all, but expects to decide by early September.

(link)

He has the best statewide name recognition among the Dems, but it's a crowded field already.  Unless he can convince the other major contenders to withdraw, possibly for attempts at other offices, I don't think his name recognition advantage will help him win in November, and the Democrats desperately need to avoid having a Gubernatorial runoff if they are gong to have the resources to win in November.
15215  General Discussion / History / Re: Was a Conservative GOP inevitable? on: August 06, 2009, 12:54:12 am
Economically, yes it was inevitable.  The Democrats needed to find a core principal to hew to after the American Civil War that the Republicans would decline to coopt.  In 1896 they at last found one by embracing the radical idea of economic populism, which they have done with varying degrees of enthusiasm ever since.

A socially conservative GOP was not inevitable.

In the wake of the Civil Rights Era of the 1960's, the Democratic coalition could have moved to embrace the religious left.  After all, traditionally the Democratic Party had been the one to embrace religion and religiously imagery moreso than the Republicans after their core religious issue of abolition had been achieved.  Instead the Democrats were hijacked by the secular left to the point of being largely antagonistic to religion in the 1970's and 1980's.

Possibly if Carter had been a successful two-term president the rise of the religious right to the point of dominating the GOP could have been prevented.
15216  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Dairy Queen on: August 06, 2009, 12:04:16 am
Ought to marry Burger King.
15217  General Politics / Economics / Re: Default on U.S. Treasuries Likely? on: August 05, 2009, 11:57:51 pm
At present, net interest (exclusive of the fictional interest paid to the Social Security trust funds and the like) is only $164 billion  for the FY 2010 budget.  Even a complete repudiation of the public debt does not eliminate the deficit.  Neither inflation nor repudiation can get us out of our current fiscal hole, only cuts in spending and/or increases in revenue (preferably by increasing the tax base instead of the tax rate) can do that.
15218  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DSCC Seems to be Playing with South Carolina on: August 04, 2009, 02:21:44 pm
First off, there was the heavily contested Republican primary.  DeMint exhausted his campaign funds in the primary and the subsequent runoff, while Inez breezed through token opposition.

Secondly, there was the familiarity factor in play.  2004 was DeMint's first statewide race, while Tenenbaum had won two statewide races before in 1998 and 2002 for Superintendent of Education.  (SoE elections lean Democratic because there are enough Republicans who want to gut public education, thus the Independents in the center are skeptical about putting a Republican in charge.)

Thirdly, while the campaign stayed on the issues, she was able to make headway against him, hitting him hard on his support of the so-called "Fair Tax".

DeMint managed to switch the subject to something totally unrelated to being a Senator when he made his "gaffe" in early October.  According to him, not only were gays are unfit to be teachers, so are unmarried mothers living with their boyfriends.  He then managed to distance himself from those remarks enough to unruffle the feathers of Independents by the time the election was held while he brought the GOP base solidly behind him.

I thought then and now that his "gaffe" was intentional, as he needed to get the voters distracted from the issues, and it worked. Partly that was because in 2004 people were talking about us being on the verge of an era of a permanent Republican majority.  If that had been true, having a 2nd GOP Senator would help bring the pork home from Washington, which likely influenced some voters. 2004 was a strong year for the GOP and SC tends Republican anyway.  Inez was formidable enough to do 7.6% better than Kerry, which would have been good enough to have held the open seat in Florida, but that wasn't good enough to hold onto Fritz's seat.
15219  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Forum World Cup --second match results on: August 04, 2009, 01:50:34 am
Honduras has no points left to spend.

In theory, Honduras can advance if we beat Germany by 4 goals and Australia and Hungary tie, or if Hungary beats Australia and we beat Germany by 2 more goals that Hungary beats Australia by.  Considering that for Honduras holding Germany to a draw would be an upset, Idoubt that will happen.

Nigeria will not spend any of its points.  We're advancing regardless.
15220  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: You just become President for Life on: August 04, 2009, 01:23:45 am
Item #1 on the agenda:
Replace the current tax code with something that fits in a 16-page booklet.
15221  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DSCC Seems to be Playing with South Carolina on: August 04, 2009, 12:00:09 am
Actually, Tenenbaum didn't come close. She lost by something like 11 percent.

9.5% actually, but a month earlier the polls were much closer.   By comparison Bush beat Kerry by 17.1%.

If it were an open seat in 2010, I'd rate it as Lean Republican, but between incumbency and other races for Democrats to aim for in the State, it's safe for DeMint. That said, I can think of one good reason for the DSCC to spend money here.  Every dollar they force DeMint to raise is one less dollar available to the GOP for the Statewide races.  It wouldn't be a particularly efficient way to funnel National dollars to help State candidates, but the Democrats need to regain the Governor's Mansion in 2010 if they hope to avoid a GOP gerrymander at redistricting.
15222  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Underage Drinking on: August 03, 2009, 11:39:21 am
By the way we have a couple of cases here in South Carolina concerning the drinking age that are percolating their way up from magistrate court.

(link)

The argument being made is that while the language of our State constitution allows the State to prohibit the sale of alcohol to 18 to 20 year olds, it does not allow the State to prohibit the possession of alcohol by 18 to 20 year olds.
15223  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Should Arnold Schwarzenegger be recalled? on: August 03, 2009, 11:01:21 am
Has California fixed its provisions for a recall election so we won't get a 100+ candidate ballot again?
15224  General Discussion / History / Re: The Trenches have left human memory on: August 02, 2009, 12:50:39 pm
Does anyone know when the last veteran of the Indian Wars died?  For that matter, when was the last "Indian War"?    1890?

The Pine Ridge Campaign is considered the last Indian War.  It includes the Wounded Knee Massacre of December 1890, but it officially lasted until January 1891 when the last of the starving Sioux were herded back onto their reservations.
15225  General Discussion / History / Re: Opinion of Woodrow Wilson on: August 01, 2009, 06:24:51 pm
the good things he did was the income tax, direct election of senators and women suffrage.

You do realize that none of those were due to Wilson.  Leaving aside the fact that Presidents can do nothing except make use of the bully pulpit to get amendments passed, he didn't even do that much.  The 16th and 17th Amendments were sent to the States for ratification while Taft was President. New Jersey (where Wilson had been governor) never ratified the 16th and only ratified the 17th after Wilson had resigned as Governor to become President.  (Not that Governors have anything more to do with passing amendments than do Presidents, but you'd think that if he were staunchly behind them, he'd have have gotten New Jersey to ratify them before he resigned on March 1.)

On Women's suffrage the evidence is quite clear that he had to be dragged into supporting it once it became the politically popular thing to do.
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