Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 13, 2016, 06:00:45 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 604 605 606 607 608 [609] 610 611 612 613 614 ... 1135
15201  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: NH Union Leader endorses Newt on: November 28, 2011, 12:30:08 am
More than anything, the GOP wants to take back the White House, not just posture, and the only candidate who has consistently polled even with Obama has been Mitt, and because Mitt has done his groundwork in the last four years, he is drawing the lion's share of establishment support and money.  And, despite all the criticism of Romney's flip-flopping, he has managed to position himself in a very interesting way, taking centrist stances on lots of issues in prep for the general, but harder lines on tax reform and immigration for the nomination, and on the latter issue a harder line than some of his supposedly more conservative rivals.  Gingrich has been out of power for more than a decade, has his own flip-flop issues, has articulated positions lately that are likely to alienate the conservatives he has to court, and is incredibly undisciplined and gaffe-prone.  He is just all-around a much spookier, and more hostile, general election candidate than Romney is.  One paper's endorsement doesn't change any of that.  It's the sudden, flash in the pan, support for Gingrich that strikes me as an inch deep, not Romney's.   I'm sure my own biases are showing in this assessment, of course, so, JMO.  But if I were on the Obama campaign staff, I'd rest a lot easier with a Gingrich nomination than with a Romney nomination, for lots and lots of reasons.

anvi, to a large extent the general election race will depend on how the economy does, not how the candidates do.  It's one reason why the republican base is not making electability a litmus test.  As for myself, yes Gingrich has his problems, but Romney's flip-flops have always been a little too politically convenient.
15202  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Michael A. Naso Institute of Comedy on: November 27, 2011, 02:01:51 pm
Why did this last longer than most of the Comedy Goldmines?
Goldmines tend to play out quickly. This is a respectable Institute, and it's well-endowed.
Don't use the e-word.  I don't want this morphing into a replacement for the Hot Guys thread.
15203  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: NBA Lockout appears to be over on: November 27, 2011, 01:59:22 pm
Shame.  I was hoping they'd lose the season, but it appears the Grinch stole Christmas again.
15204  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The LibDems ended slavery, don't you know? on: November 26, 2011, 08:24:07 pm
There's a statute of limitations on being anti-slavery.  Three intervening name changes and multiple total ideological shifts mean that you can't talk about that anymore.

They why do the Democrats still claim Jefferson and the Republicans claim Lincoln?
15205  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: Hamilton vs. Jefferson? on: November 26, 2011, 05:32:49 pm
Hamilton was ineligible for election to the office of the Presidency.

Actually he was.  You need to either be a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the U.S. as of the adoption of the Constitution to be president.  While Hamilton does not meet the first possibility, he does the second as he was citizen of the United States as of 4 March 1789.

What I was thinking about, primarily, when I made this, was Hamilton's foreign policy given the trouble with the French. I'm wondering if this establishes an early precedent for American foreign intervention, and maybe even makes Conservatives warhawks earlier on than in OTL. Also, how America entering into war so early might effect it. How might these questions be changed with a Hamilton Presidency beginning in 1805?

Not nearly as much as they would have if he'd become President in 1797.  By 1805 it was clear that France was not going to be a bastion of republican virtue.  If Hamilton had tried to side with Britain in 1797, it could well have led to the breakup of the United States.  In 1805, war with France would have been a unifying factor both north and south.  The south would have had Louisiana and Cuba to gain from the war, while the north would have been able to maintain the more profitable trade with Britain.

Conversely, uninterrupted trade with the British will retard the development of Yankee manufactures.
15206  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: PPP to start weekly Iowa tracker next week on: November 26, 2011, 12:47:40 pm
Only weekly?

That's good enough I think - for a caucus.

I agree, but I was half-way expecting hourly the way races are overpolled these days.
15207  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Gary Johnson Threatens Third-Party Run on: November 26, 2011, 12:45:54 pm
The discontent with both parties makes a third-party run plausible, but the Libertarian, Constitution, and Green parties are all fourth-parties with no chance of having an impact on the election.
15208  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: PPP to start weekly Iowa tracker next week on: November 26, 2011, 12:35:09 pm
Only weekly?
15209  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CBO: Obama Stimulus Package Added 3.3 Million Jobs on: November 25, 2011, 11:42:49 pm
Wonkish,

You put it very well.

The "static" nature of CBO "analysis" has been under attack by economists for several years.

CBO counters that it is impossible to accurately project such changes.

The bottom line is the CBO is consistently wrong!

And honestly, I'm not really disputing that the CBO is...well...wrong...frequently...even consistently if you like...and you spelled out pretty decent reasons why it often errs.  If asked why the CBO isn't accurate, I'd rattle off many, but perhaps not all, the aforementioned reasons.  That said, I wouldn't make the leap that what the CBO does (forecasting, whatever) is malicious, or fraudulent.  Just on many occasions wrong, and there is a difference.

I wouldn't say its malicious. But they know their going to be off in the same direction every single time and they don't care. So call what you will, but its not accidental.

If they are consistently wrong in the same direction, then that makes their errors predictable and thus something that can be adjusted for because they are reproducible.  Conversely, if they keep adjusting their methodology in search of being more accurate, their estimates become less useful.

Which would you rather have, a clock that is consistently 15 minutes slow, or a clock that is always within 5 minutes of the correct time, but you can't be sure if it is fast or slow?
15210  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: name your favorite childhood toy on: November 24, 2011, 09:00:45 pm
G.I.Joe, not the wimpy little 4" figurines, but a 12" tall early 70's Adventure Team Commander with Kung Fu Grip and a pullstring to hear such classic lines as:

"We must get there before dark. Follow me"

and

"Set up Team Headquarters here"

And I was able to do exactly that as I had the Mobile Support Vehicle
15211  General Politics / Economics / Re: Credit union membership by state on: November 24, 2011, 04:22:22 pm
I also hope they aren't counting based on the number of memberships at the institution and including that for the state of branch or headquarters location otherwise I've added a large number to the state of Virginia for example and I don't even live there.

They probably are as it helps explain the huge percentage of members in Virginia, since the various credit unions used by the armed forces are mainly chartered there.
15212  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What do you consider a mansion? on: November 24, 2011, 04:11:16 pm
I still maintain 3 bathrooms for a single family is too many.

2 sure. 2 and 1 for a unit you rent out, yes. But 3?

Depends on how many kids.  I grew up as the fourth of four kids in a five bedroom, three bathroom house which was just right for our family size.
15213  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Andrew Jackson on: November 24, 2011, 04:06:26 pm
Total badass, but the push to destroy the national bank and replace it with easy money pet banks, as well as the whole genocide thing, puts him as a rather splendid example of a HP.

How could a leftist have supported the Second U.S. Bank?

From a leftist perspective, the Bank of the United States was preferable to the cronyism of the pet banks.
15214  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What would happen if the North Korean regime crumbles? on: November 23, 2011, 11:19:42 pm
According to Wikileaks, China would take over control of an interim puppet regime with South Korea annexing it peacefully in 10 years.

Why would the Chinese allow reunification? I thought their whole justification for supporting the Ils was to keep a US-aligned non-ally off its borders.

The Chinese may think that absent the threat of North Korea, a reunited Korea will return to being a Chinese client state as it historically was.  I don't think it will.
15215  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What happened to Rick Santorum? on: November 23, 2011, 10:25:10 pm

I can sympathize with jmfcst holding a grudge about a politician for a single stupid comment.  I feel the same way about Gore for the idiotic sucking up he did in the aftermath of the failure of the Clinton impeachment.  It was why in 2000 my choice between who to vote for in the general election was between Nader and Bush.  I eventually decided that since Bush was going to win South Carolina regardless of my vote I would vote for Nader to encourage third parties, but if I had been living in a close state such as Florida, I certainly would have voted for Bush to keep Gore out of the White House.

Even knowing what has happened in the eleven years since, I'd still vote the same way for the same reasons.

Fascinating post.  Mostly because I can relate.  I, too, remember very well Gore's statements about Clinton, and I remember how disappointed I was.  Honestly, I didn't much care for Gore before that, and didn't want him to win, but that just infuriated me even more.

As long as we're being honest, I did vote for Nader in 2000.  It was the only time I voted for a third-party candidate for president, though I have done so in some gubernatorial and senatorial elections.  I also attended Nader rallies--one particularly memorable one was at the National Guard Armory in Boston the night before the 2000 election in which Michael Moore, that fat bastard who represents all that is wrong with America, and who was ostensibly campaigning for Nader, seem to hedge his bets and tell folks to "do what you gotta do" as though the was still hoping that Gore defeats Bush.  What a bastard--but I digress, in the Nader rallies it was abundantly clear, despite what the newsies said then and still say now, that the Nader voters were not, and I repeat NOT, of the opinion that a Gore victory was preferable to a Bush victory.  You seem to confirm that view with your post.  We may not have particularly liked Bush, but we damned sure didn't like Gore.

My views on Gore had changed considerably more over the years.  In 1988 I was actually a Gore delegate at the county convention, which was such a disorganized mess that even if I had been offered the chance to go to the State convention as a delegate, I would have declined.  (I left before they picked the delegates.  I'd been there over five hours on a weeknight and they still hadn't done that!  It was disorganization like that which contributed to the collapse of the Democratic Party in South Carolina.)
15216  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Any chance that Gingrich could beat Obama? on: November 23, 2011, 08:56:37 pm
Yes, but it will be tough.  It also will be tough for Romney to beat Obama,
15217  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What happened to Rick Santorum? on: November 23, 2011, 08:48:04 pm
...

Ah, you do know how to carry a grudge, don't you?

At least you have shed light on the mystery.  Seriously, I was probably posting during that time, and probably noticed your posts, but I'd forgotten.  Now at least I can understand why he's hovering in the single digits after several fairly outstanding debate performances.

I can sympathize with jmfcst holding a grudge about a politician for a single stupid comment.  I feel the same way about Gore for the idiotic sucking up he did in the aftermath of the failure of the Clinton impeachment.  It was why in 2000 my choice between who to vote for in the general election was between Nader and Bush.  I eventually decided that since Bush was going to win South Carolina regardless of my vote I would vote for Nader to encourage third parties, but if I had been living in a close state such as Florida, I certainly would have voted for Bush to keep Gore out of the White House.

Even knowing what has happened in the eleven years since, I'd still vote the same way for the same reasons.
15218  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Numbers USA Grading of Gingrich on Immigration on: November 23, 2011, 08:37:52 pm
Considering that NumbersUSA takes the position that we have too much legal immigration, let alone too much illegal immigration, their opinion of Newt doesn't bother me in the least.
15219  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Official CNN/AEI/Heritage Foundation GOP Debate Thread on: November 22, 2011, 10:39:16 pm
Santorum, my Confederate veteran ancestors were not terrorist. I wont defend them, but they were NOT terrorist.

Ahh,  but they were.

I loved the look on Paul's face.
Then the American revolutionaries in 1776 were also terrorist...

Since some of my ancestors had to flee to Canada to escape the American terrorists after the tax revolt, I'd agree with that assessment.
15220  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Michael A. Naso Institute of Comedy on: November 22, 2011, 09:27:43 pm
I hereby nominate the following for the Blazing Saddles comedy award.

Not as bad as if you replaced Portugal with Norway...
15221  General Politics / Economics / Re: Harvard Students stage walk-out on Greg Mankiw on: November 22, 2011, 09:21:08 pm
So, let us get is straight. The students worked out on one of the world's major neo-Keynesians Smiley))

That's true. They weren't protesting his body of work as an economist, just the curriculum of Harvard's version of 'Econ 101' which sounds like almost the same as taught in any introductory undergraduate econ course across the US.

Considering how expensive Harvard is, students there have a perfect right to be upset at being overcharged for a course they could have taken elsewhere with the same content.
15222  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: CBO: Obama Stimulus Package Added 3.3 Million Jobs on: November 22, 2011, 09:05:44 pm
Even taking the CBO numbers as gospel, that's over $240,000 per job!  Not exactly a number to be crowing about.

After the stimulus the appetite for US government debt increased and our borrowing costs dropped to an all time low.  How would you like the CBO to adjust its numbers?



Of course there is high appetite for treasuries they are seen as not having a default risk. That has no bearing on the criticism I just made.

People that buy treasuries would have bought some other asset if the supply wasn't increased so much. The CBO doesn't acknowledge that this most basic fact is true.

I just don't understand how the current activities in the bond market post stimulus invalidate the CBOs numbers.

What he is saying is that if the money used to buy $800 billion of treasuries had been used for other purposes, it would have created jobs as well.  And considering that the CBO numbers have each of those stimulus provided jobs costing so much I find it hard to believe it couldn't have done as good a job at creating jobs elsewhere.
15223  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: STOLEN WATERS ARE SWEET on: November 22, 2011, 08:00:18 pm
On what biblical basis do you find masturbation to be a sin jmf?

Onan's sin...

masturbation has nothing to do with Onan's sin (he sinned by refusing to fulfill the required role of kinsman redeemer)

Agreed, but since his name is linked with masturbation, I thought it best to exclude that possible line of reasoning.

Quote

rather it has to do with lust and the proper context for sex.


If I gleaned correctly from what I got in the search your argument is similar to the Talmudic "waste of seed" argument save that it isn't as narrowly focused up procreation as the sole purpose of sex.

But even with the point of view that the sole purpose of sex is to facilitate the union of man and wife, I don't see how that jibes with the proposition that ALL masturbation is sinful.

What of those who are not married, or who are not able to be physically in the presence of their spouse?
15224  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Texas is screwed. on: November 21, 2011, 11:46:26 pm
And as water prices rise there becomes a high profit motive to build something like a water desalination plant.

And as water prices rise, there will be added incentives to be more efficient in using water, or even abandoning some uses.  The problem is, I don't think the incentives to do either will be there until the aquifers start to run dry, at which point there will be a sudden shock to the system.

Well there are incentives to do both. Be more efficient with it and innovate a solution. I would grant that municipal regulations that put a damper on a utilities ability to raise prices significantly as the water is running low may exasperate the problem(I don't know if this is much of an issue in a state like Texas), but the cost of extraction should rise as the water level drops, right?

Most aquifers are only a few hundred feet thick, so except for the most shallow of aquifers, the added costs of drilling deeper to reach the bottom of the aquifer will be negligible.  Some places will be lucky enough to have another deeper aquifer that they could draw on, but accessing it would be a sudden jump in cost, not a gradual one.
15225  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: STOLEN WATERS ARE SWEET on: November 21, 2011, 11:12:09 pm
you'll have to site what he said, how it contradicts the bible, and how it is misandic

While you wait for Stardust, perhaps you would care to answer my request that you explain on what biblical basis do you find masturbation to be a sin?
Pages: 1 ... 604 605 606 607 608 [609] 610 611 612 613 614 ... 1135


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines