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15201  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Supreme Court issues split decision on Arizona immigration law on: June 26, 2012, 07:50:19 pm
I have no problem dealing with citations, CARL; it's just irritating to have to open another webpage just because you couldn't be bothered to write a simple sentence.

CARL, if you don't think some of Arizona's finest won't use SB 1070 2(B) as an excuse to demand to see the identification of US citizens whose appearance they don't like, you are either naive or stupid.  However, I don't think you are either of those, but rather that you don't care if those people get hassled.
15202  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2012 Non-Presidential Primaries Thread (6/26 - SC runoff) on: June 26, 2012, 07:34:07 pm
Runoffs for both parties in SC's 7th Congressional District, plus a few local runoffs as well.

WYFF: http://www.wyff4.com/news/politics/South-Carolina-Runoff-Election-results/-/9324082/15195356/-/bw685kz/-/index.html

SC SEC: http://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/40277/89216/en/summary.html

WYFF has faster results, so far the State Election Commission has none.

With half the precincts in, Tinubu has a 73-27 lead over Brittain in a pointless Democratic runoff, while on the Republican side Horry County Council Chairman Tom Rice has a 58-42 lead over ex-Lt. Gov Andre Bauer.  Looks like Tom Rice will be going to Washington this January.


15203  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Which state will go for Romney first? on: June 26, 2012, 06:39:54 pm
Kentucky will be the first state called for Romney on Election Night, with a 50-50 chance that Indiana will also be called as of 7pm ET.
15204  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Supreme Court issues split decision on Arizona immigration law on: June 26, 2012, 06:01:10 pm
I suggest that you might want to check on Hiibel v. Sixth Judicial District Court of Nevada, 542 U.S. 177 (2004).  If that official cite is too "cryptic" for you, I'll provide a link to a brief on the case.

Yes, giving a bare cite without explaining why you think it is relevant is indeed cryptic.  Ideally, links should be for providing corroborating information for those who chose to peruse it, not something that must be examined in order to understand what a person means.  Simply mentioning you believe that Hibel establishes that simply giving a name is sufficient identification during a police stop-and-identify would have been far less cryptic, but denied you a chance for some snark.  At least from what you wrote that is what I think you believe.  If that is your belief, you are wrong.

In Hibel, the Court interpreted the Nevada statue as being satisfied by the interviewee giving a name to the policeman who stopped him, and found that there were Constitutional problems raised by requiring that a name be given, but it did not set that as the absolute limit as to what could be asked.  As cited in Hibel, in Kolender v. Lawson,  461 U.S. 352 (1983), the Court found that California's requirement that a person subjected to a stop and identify interview provide "credible and reliable" identification was too vague.  However, SB 1070 2(B) is not at all vague as to what identification it wants to end potential police harassment:
Quote
1. A valid Arizona Driver License.
2. A valid Arizona Nonoperating Identification License.
3. A valid Tribal Enrollment Card or other form of tribal identification.
4. If the entity requires proof of legal presence in the United States before issuance, any valid United States Federal, State or local government issued identification.

So I stand by my previous advice to you that you make certain you carry your "Get Out Of Jail Free" card at all times while in Arizona.  Depending on how 2(B) gets implemented, you may need to.
15205  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Do you pray before a meal? on: June 26, 2012, 02:33:51 pm
No. I'm an atheist, and I only pray to a faux-god/human idol.

So you watch TV at dinner?
15206  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Citizens! United! Will Never Be Defeated! on: June 26, 2012, 01:42:03 pm
Incorporation (which has been around since Gitlow 90 years ago) is a pretty logical conclusion of the 14th Amendment and overturning it would overturn...pretty much the entirety of Fourth and Fifth Amendment jurisprudence. 

How so? I don't follow most Supreme Court decisions and precedent, but how would overturning the idea that non-human entities (like corporations and unions) are legally persons overturn the Fourth and Fifth Amendment?

Incorporation here has nothing to do with whether corporations are people, but whether the XIVth Amendment caused the Bill of Rights to apply to the State governments as well as the Federal government.
15207  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever visited a facility for mentally challenged people ? on: June 26, 2012, 01:33:34 pm
Yes.  Several.  The largest typically handles around 540 mentally challenged people and is located atop a hill that has a commanding view of its surroundings and plenty of green space for the inmates to take advantage of it they wish.



More seriously, yes.  Had a family member who was in one for a couple of weeks because of side effects from some new medicine they tried to avoid some other side effects.  Got better as soon the docs went back to the old medicine, but it was still several weeks before discharge.
15208  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is it against Christian teachings to go to church dressed as a pony? on: June 26, 2012, 01:15:27 pm
Depends.  Males need to dress as colts and females as fillies.
15209  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Does Fast & Furious have leg's? on: June 26, 2012, 01:04:47 pm
While it's very unfortunate what happened to Brian Terry, I think this is a case where unless the other shoe is about to drop in some serious way, the cover-up is a much bigger deal politically than Fast and Furious itself.

The cover-up almost always is.  The Feds got Capone for tax evasion, not bootlegging.
15210  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney: No need to detail how I’ll pay for massive tax cuts. Just trust me. on: June 26, 2012, 12:53:03 pm
Whyte Rayne, you do realize that Romney wants to increase our war defense spending?
15211  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Nate Silver has shifted Ohio from Tossup/Tilt D to Tossup/Tilt R on: June 26, 2012, 12:32:26 pm
Exactly.  Since people are currently supporting Obama despite thinking we are already in a recession, then us actually going into one won't shake their support unless things get really bad really fast, and that doesn't appear to be what's happening.  Meanwhile commodity prices such as gasoline are going down now in anticipation of a probable downturn from the Euro crisis and to people who aren't political or economics junkies, that will seem like a good thing.  Most people don't base their feelings about what the economy is doing based on macroeconomic statistics, but on the microeconomics of what is happening to their own personal finances and how their friends and family are doing.  It's why Obama's support was going down earlier this year when gas prices were going up despite macroeconomic numbers that were somewhat encouraging.

James Carville wasn't precise enough with his famous quote.  It should be "It's the microeconomy, stupid."  Unlike what was happening with Carter, we have low interest rates and falling prices, both of which make the microeconomic situation for Obama much better than it was for ol' Peanuthead.
15212  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA: We Ask America: Romney by 5 on: June 26, 2012, 12:02:43 pm
While they did reasonably well in the Republican primaries, WAA has been so all over the place with their partisan polls so far that I have no confidence in them.  I'd much rather have a PPP or Rasmussen poll with a somewhat predictable house effect over what WAA is doing.  If they had some crosstabs, maybe these polls would have some use, but apparently they are not releasing them.
15213  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Nate Silver has shifted Ohio from Tossup/Tilt D to Tossup/Tilt R on: June 26, 2012, 10:36:26 am
The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.

The WSJ says people are pocketing the savings of lower gasoline costs, not spending them: 

Lower gasoline prices can be a bright spot for consumers in a weak economy. But so far, it appears they are pocketing the savings amid financial uncertainty rather than using the windfall to spend more on other things.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304441404577482761786743928.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Given what's happened the last few years, I expect it will be a few more years before people generally feel confident.  Still, the fatter wallets will make them happier than if they were slim.   With people unlikely to think we've double dipped, it's going to take some rather gloomy economic numbers to get people who favor Obama now to either stay home or switch to Romney.  Lower gas prices aren't gloomy even tho the reason they are lower is.
15214  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: Olympic Sports Survivor on: June 26, 2012, 10:29:35 am
Gold - Canoe/Kayak Sprint
Silver - Diving
Bronze - Artistic Gymnastics
15215  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: why thursday on: June 26, 2012, 10:24:13 am
In the case of the Supreme Court, they typically release decisions this time of year on a Monday or Thursday.  Monday was their last scheduled date, but they probably didn't want to release both the SB 1070 decision and the Obamacare decision on the same day.  Given that Scalia felt the need to insert some scathing remarks about Obama's imperial order implementing a Dream Act Lite into his opinion, it's possible the SB 1070 decision was originally supposed to come out last Thursday and the Obamacare decision Monday, but it's more likely that the Court wanted to give the Obamacare decision its own day since it took up three days of oral arguments.
15216  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA: Old Dominion University/The Virginian-Pilot: Obama up 7 on: June 26, 2012, 10:13:53 am
Essentially a junk poll since there is track record to judge it by.  The sole thing that keeps this from being utter junk is that the results of the question on who the respondents voted for in 2008, the results mirror those of the actual election.
15217  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: true or false: the vp pick will either be thune or pawlenty? on: June 26, 2012, 09:45:54 am
How is Pawlenty one of the safest picks? His "Obamneycare" remarks during the debates make him an awful choice.

You mean like how Bush's calling Reagan's plans "voodoo economics" made him an awful choice?
15218  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Nate Silver has shifted Ohio from Tossup/Tilt D to Tossup/Tilt R on: June 25, 2012, 11:04:19 pm
The economy is sliding back into recession.  Nothing can save Obama.

--Whose House?!

Weirdly enough, that could benefit Obama.  Surely you've notices how gas prices have plunged the past few weeks. A mild recession caused by the Euro crisis with its main effects not felt until after the election, but that keeps the easily noticed gas price down could cause people to feel good about the economy personally while it declines collectively.
15219  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Glasgow Rangers FC signal intent to go into administration. on: June 25, 2012, 10:01:35 pm
Is there any possibility whatsoever for the Celtics to leave the SPL or is it conceivable that one of the Edinburgh clubs could take the place of the Rangers?
15220  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Have the democrats shifted left? on: June 25, 2012, 08:56:48 pm

If you had bothered to check past posts you would have seen where I provided details on the movement of the Democrat party in Congress to the left.

Not in this thread, and if you think I'm going to check through your 10K+ posts to see if you ever backed up your point, you have a ridiculously high opinion of how much attention I pay to what you post.

By itself, all the Gallup data shows is evidence of the polarization of the political spectrum in the past decade.  It does not show how the political spectrum may have shifted.

Here is what Chris Bowers had to say on April 8, 2010, in an article entitled 'Long-term trends show Democrat Party moving to the left.'

“The trend through the decades, and over the last eleven Congress, is unmistakable: the party keeps moving to the left”.

http://www.openleft.com/diary/18195/longterm-trends-show-democratic-party-moving-to-the-left

Now this is the sort of analysis that could be used to support your claim, since it purports to include a basis that attempts to comparing policy preferences in different years.

The problem is, their basis is not immune to the problem of the wandering center, as shown by the following graph from the VoteView site that provided the data used in the OpenLeft article.



http://voteview.com/dwnomin_joint_house_and_senate.htm

Any analysis that shows that the Democrats of the Gilded Age were as liberal as the Democrats of today clearly is not using an unchanging definition of what it means to be liberal or conservative.  Instead all the VoteView data does is show with greater detail and over a longer period of time than the Gallup data did that the parties have been growing more polarized since the 1930s and -40s which was a period during which the two parties were the least polarized on economic matters.

15221  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: UT: Dan Jones: Romney nearing 70% on: June 25, 2012, 07:55:20 pm
Looks like Johnson might keep Romney from breaking 70% here.
15222  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Supreme Court cases decided 25 June 2012 on: June 25, 2012, 07:47:25 pm
For the record if I'm reading this correctly Scalia and Thomas actually did not agree in upholding the entire law, Scalia is the only one who would've upheld the entire law. Thomas would've upheld all of the law except the parts that are preempted by federal law. Alito basically agreed with Thomas but disagreed with which parts are preempted.

I presume you meant Alito and Thomas, not Scalia and Thomas, but you are slightly mistaken about Thomas. You said "Thomas would've upheld all of the law except the parts that are preempted by federal law."  That's slightly true except that Thomas found that none of SB 1070 was preempted.  Scalia was more expansive in his dissent and defended the ability of the States to establish some degree of immigration law beyond that enacted by the Federal government.  He was also quite scathing of Obama's imperial order implementing a Dream Act Lite by presidential fiat.
15223  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Supreme Court seems likely to uphold Arizona immigration law on: June 25, 2012, 04:58:42 pm
As long as they get rid of the provision forcing people to carry immigration documents with them, I will be happy. That part of the law is ridiculous and makes immigrants targets of criminals who would like to steal their documents to sell it. And then later on it can be challenged for racial profiling, which will inevitably happen. Anyone who thinks otherwise is either extremely naive, or doesn't really care whether it happens.

So, you want Title 8, Section 1304, subsection (e) of the United States Code, to be struck down?  On what basis?

I'm pretty sure Sbane articulated his basis in his post, but I already knew that you have the reading comprehension of a small child off his Ritalin, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

Nathan, while Sbane articulated why he thought it was a bad law, he gave no basis for why he wanted it to be found unconstitutional.  While it would have been nice if CARL had been a little less cryptic, 8 USC 1304 (e) is the provision of Federal law that requires resident aliens to carry their green card.  That said, depending on how SB 1070 2(B) is implemented it could effectively require U.S. citizens to carry an ID card with them at all times in order to minimize the harassment law enforcement could subject them to.  So CARL, make certain you carry your driver's license with you when you go jogging in case you get stopped by the cops while you get your exercise.
15224  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Supreme Court cases decided 25 June 2012 on: June 25, 2012, 02:13:08 pm
What's Alito's rationale for upholding 5C but not 3?   Section 6 looks the most problematic to me, since I don't get why a state can't help enforce federal law as long as they respect civil liberties.

In the case of section 5C, Alito agreed with Kennedy that Federal law could preempt such a State law, but disagreed that current Federal law actually did preempt State law in this area, interpreting it as being silent on the issue.
15225  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2012 Presidential Predictions (General) on: June 25, 2012, 01:55:58 pm
As of 25 June these states are most susceptible to being changed as they would require only 24 or fewer changed predictions (5% of the total predictions) to change.

The past 8 days have seen little change in sentiment, but once the Obamacare ruling is released I suspect there may be change, so I decided to go ahead and post an update now.

Alphabetical Order:
Florida: 8 changes (+1) to go from 50% R to 40% R
Nebraska 1: 5 changes (+2) to go from Lean R to Strong R
New Hampshire: 11 changes (+2) to go from 50% D to 40% D
New Mexico: 21 changes (+1) to go from Strong D to Lean D
Nevada: 14 changes (+2) to go from Tossup D to Lean D
North Dakota: 13 changes (+2) to go from Strong R to Lean R
South Carolina: 6 changes (+3) to go from Lean R to Strong R
Virginia: 7 changes (+4) to go from 40% D to 50% D

Size Order:
Nebraska 1: 5 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
South Carolina: 6 changes to go from Lean R to Strong R
Florida: 8 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R
North Dakota: 11 changes to go from Strong R to Lean R
Virginia: 11 changes to go from 40% D to 50% D
New Hampshire: 13 changes to go from 50% D to 40% D
Nevada: 14 changes to go from Tossup D to Lean D
New Mexico: 21 changes to go from Strong D to Lean D


Missouri now requires 27 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 8 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.

Nebraska 2 now requires 25 changes to go from 50% R to 40% R, up 3 from 8 days ago. This puts it above the 5% threshold, so it will be dropped from the list I track until sentiment rebounds to the Democrats.
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