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16726  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1912... on: February 22, 2009, 04:51:16 pm
While most of Roosevelt's support came from the GOP not all of it did, so you can't simply combine the Roosevelt+Taft vote:

In a Wilson / Taft / Debs race:



Wilson: 351
Taft: 180

In a Wilson / Roosevelt / Debs race:



Roosevelt: 297
Taft: 234

Note that in either case, Wilson picks up California, which might seem counterintuitive, but Taft was a write-in in that state which IRL Roosevelt barely won.  Without both Taft and Roosevelt in the National race, enough of the Roosevelt voters will switch to Wilson and Debs to give Wilson the state.
16727  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: A North American Union? on: February 22, 2009, 04:03:58 pm
The problem is that since the United States of America is more than twice the heft of Canada and Mexico combined in both population and economic might, then an EU-style system would effectively be a transfer of control in Canada and Mexico to the United States.  That's not going to happen.  That's not even counting the language and economic disparity between Mexico and the other two members.  That said, a Pan-American Union would have a chance of progressing beyond a free trade pact, but not anytime soon.  It would need both Mexico and Brazil to advance to something closer to the United States in economic development that they currently are for it to have a chance.
16728  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Federal Election Tracker (as of 2:34 pm Eastern, SUNDAY)less than 10 hours l on: February 22, 2009, 03:07:46 pm
Absolutely. Remember what office he's currently holding.

And this is why people think Atlasia is dead! People not caring about activity at all while complaining the system is dead.

True. Look what JCP zombie voters are doing! Reelecting a president who did nothing and electing a senator who know nothing about Atlasia.

That's why instead of the Jesus Christ Party, people need to vote for the Judge Castillo Party.  Together with Judge Dredd, they will rid Mega-City One of zombies!
16729  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Gold and Silver Standard Act on: February 22, 2009, 03:02:31 pm
No it doesn't.  While it might make some sense to have either a gold standard or a silver standard if a hard ceiling on inflation is deemed necessary, bimetallism just doesn't work because the value of gold and silver fails to remain constant.
16730  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Knowing your Secretary of State. No, not that one. on: February 21, 2009, 09:55:04 pm
South Carolina's Secretary of State has nothing to with elections (that's the State Elections Commission's job), and we've actually had at times the incumbent holding the office arguing for the elimination of the position as fairly pointless.  However, considering we still elect our Adjutant General, that's not surprising.
16731  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: Germany wins WW1? on: February 21, 2009, 09:40:05 pm
Africa would be strongly redrawn in the aftermath of a Central Power victory.  Morocco likely regains independence for a while or becomes wholly Spanish if Germany desires to add Rio Muni to an expanded Kamerun.  Germany takes Walvis Bay and maybe Nyasaland (Malawi) and Northern Rhodesia (Zambia) from Britain, Angola and Northern Mozambique (making the Zambezi River the  southern limit of German control in East Africa) from the Portuguese, French Equatorial Africa and likely Dahomey from the French, and last but not least the Belgian Congo. (Expect many reports in the 1920s on the Belgian genocide there to justify taking away the entirety of Belgium's colonial territory.)

Italy might gain some territory, especially Tunisia, if Italy remains true to the Triple Alliance.
16732  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: February 21, 2009, 08:17:07 pm
Since I bothered to vote, I might as well update my registration as well.

Ernest
Judge Castillo Party
Delaware
16733  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: February 2009 Official Voting Booth on: February 21, 2009, 07:29:48 pm

Official ballot



President


[  ] bgwah/VP Meeker [meekermariner]
Jesus Christ Party/Silver Regional Protection Party


[ 2 ] Sen. AndrewCT [AndrewCT]/afleitch
Democratic Alliance


[ 1 ] Write-in: Lief /Earl


[  ] None of the above


Northeast Senator


[  ] Write-in:______________________________


[ 1 ] None of the above
16734  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: If you could change the winner of an election... on: February 19, 2009, 10:57:01 pm
The one I'd most care to change is 1844 to this map:

Clay: 179 EV
Polk: 96 EV

It wouldn't have taken much to produce this map either, just a 2% swing.
16735  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of George McClellan on: February 19, 2009, 01:48:14 am
McClellan gets a bit of a bum rap in my opinion.  Had Lincoln given the Peninsular Campaign the troop levels McClellan had expected to have, it likely would have worked despite McClellan's erroneous belief that the Confederate forces were larger than they actually were.  If the I Corps wasn't diverted to the Valley Campaign, Seven Pines proceeds differently, and even if Johnston is still wounded so that Lee takes over the command, Lee won't have the time to plan his counter-offensive that led to the Seven Days Battles. With Richmond falling in June 1862 it is obvious to all that the Confederacy is doomed and the only question is whether the war ends before or after the fall elections.  (Likely after the elections with what terms to offer the Confederate States for a peaceful end to the war as a major issue.)
16736  General Politics / Political Essays & Deliberation / Re: "Letís see the 'criticism' of Israel for what it really is" on: February 18, 2009, 01:42:30 pm
Anti-Semitism and Anti-Zionism are not the same thing. Unfortunately, there is considerable overlap because many anti-Semites are also anti-Zionists.  (Tho I imagine there are some anti-Semites who are Zionists as it gives a place for the Jews to be forced to go so they don't have to mix with them.)

Howard Jacobson

And the question has to be asked whether a Jewish state, however magnanimous and conciliatory, will ever be accepted in the Middle East.

The problem is, while the modern State of Israel is indeed in many ways a model country, it can't escape that without the ethnic cleansing carried out in 1947-9, even within the 1967 borders, Israel wouldn't be a Jewish state today.  That indisputable fact is why getting those who were cleansed and their descendants is not going to be easily accepted by the Arabs, especially when Israel continues the policy of cleansing known as "settlements".  Such a lovely word that implies that the land was barren and unused until it was settled, when the truth is anything but.

16737  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: High speed rails! on: February 18, 2009, 11:03:51 am
There was only $10 billion in this bill dedicated to high speed rail. There should have been much more.

Not really.  Whlle high-speed rail is generally a good idea, I doubt that there are many projects that are "shovel-ready" and thus deserving of being in a stimulus bill.  The main problem will the cost of land acquisition.  High speed rail needs straighter routings and more gentle curves than the rights-of-way the railroads currently use.  This land acquisition will need to go through built-up areas and likely run into some of the same problems that led to the freeway revolts of the 60s and 70s.  Getting suitable rights-of-way will be the most expensive and controversial part of any push to high-speed rail.
16738  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rasmussen Says Specter May Have Made a Mistake on: February 18, 2009, 10:44:04 am
Fair enough but I support the government paying for third party primaries as well as funding the GOP and Dem primaries.

Problem is, third parties generally have a hard enough time attracting one candidate for most offices, so even so-called parity in primary financing is still an advantage for the duopoly as they would still get a disproportionate benefit in government sponsored publicity.

...then that's their problem. Sorry.

And what about the taxpayers who don't belong to any political party?  Why should they have to pay for what should be party expenses?
16739  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: President's Day on: February 17, 2009, 11:37:22 pm
Yes, and if lassiez faire adherent Grover Cleveland had been President in 1893, the Panic of that year would never have degenerated into a depression.

Blaming Cleveland for the Panic of 1893 would be like blaming Obama for our current mess.  The Silver Republicans and Harrison set up the situation.
16740  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rasmussen Says Specter May Have Made a Mistake on: February 17, 2009, 11:19:11 pm
Fair enough but I support the government paying for third party primaries as well as funding the GOP and Dem primaries.

Problem is, third parties generally have a hard enough time attracting one candidate for most offices, so even so-called parity in primary financing is still an advantage for the duopoly as they would still get a disproportionate benefit in government sponsored publicity.
16741  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Idea for Something That Isn't Really a "Game" on: February 17, 2009, 09:34:37 pm
Count me in.
16742  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: President's Day on: February 17, 2009, 09:31:54 pm
If Coolidge had done what Hoover refused to do and veto Smoot-Hawley, the Panic of 1929 might well have not evolved into the Great Depression.  History certainly would have been different had Coolidge sought reelection.
16743  General Politics / Economics / Re: So, how long does GM/Chrysler have? on: February 17, 2009, 09:22:15 pm
If GM goes into bankruptcy this year it will be a pre-planned Chapter 11 reorganization under which they trim their labor costs, get rid of brands such as Saab, Saturn and Hummer, and last and not least, ditch their smaller dealers.

Chrysler on the other hand is likely to go into Chapter 7 liquidation if they don't get government money and Chapter 11 or the equivalent if they do.  Dodge is the only division I see as being assured of survival.  The Chrysler division will survive only if the FIAT deal goes through.  The Jeep brand will likely survive for a while longer, but not as part of Chrysler.  Most likely outcome for Chrysler is a passage through Chapter 11 to among other things, drop off the Jeep division to a Chinese company while keeping Chrysler and Dodge as North American divisions of Fiat. If it goes into Chapter 7, Tata Motors would likely be interested in acquiring Dodge, but not Jeep as they recently acquired Land Rover.  Unfortunately, there isn't anything special about the Chrysler brand that would make it likely to survive a passage though Chapter 7.
16744  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rasmussen Says Specter May Have Made a Mistake on: February 17, 2009, 08:28:37 pm
Can Democrats vote in the GOP primary?  I can't remember in PA.

No, we have a normal system. Independents rightfully can't vote in our primaries either.

WARNING! Potential thread hijack in progress!
It may be normal, but it ain't right.  Not that I disagree with the idea of party-only primaries, I just disagree with the idea of party-only primaries paid for and run the state government.  We need to get the government out of the business of supporting the party duopoly by having the government pay for party activities such as primaries.
WARNING! Potential thread hijack in progress!
16745  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Republicans should give up on abortion. on: February 17, 2009, 06:36:41 pm
Though...let's go through this exit poll. What does it tell you?
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#SDI01p1

Apparently, our generation IS pro-choice... Tongue

It tells me that Democratic voters in South Dakota are likelier to show up at the polls if they are young and less aware that South Dakota was going to be in the Republican column no matter what.
16746  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should General William T Sherman be put on any money? on: February 15, 2009, 12:37:35 am
Only if we want money to burn. Grin
16747  General Discussion / History / Re: Was World War I a Necessary War? on: February 15, 2009, 12:36:47 am
It was the last gasp of absolute monarchs who believed that any insult to their purported honor had to be met with war.

It may have been inevitable, but it certainly wasn't necessary. I can only imagine what the Romanovs thought as they were herded to a cellar to be shot. I can only imagine what Wilhelm II thought as he fled to Holland. I can only imagine how Austro-Hungarian leadership thought as it saw its own empire collapse.

Even if it were inevitable it should have been stopped when it became a futile effort for both sides. At least one country, the United States, could long have served as an honest broker of a settlement. 

Perhaps, but not with Wilson as President.  He wanted the Allies to win practically form the start, but kept us out of the war at first in hopes that entry later would give him more clout to set the terms of the peace.  If Wilson had been willing to push for the United States to enter the war in early 1915, before Bulgaria entered the war on the side of the Central powers, the war might well have been over in 1916, and certainly no later than 1917, and without a Russian Revolution.

OTOH, if the U.S. had been truly neutral instead of being the Allied arms supplier in 1915 and 1916, the Central powes would have likely won the war no later than 1917, unless Britain insisted on being stubborn and keeping up the fight after France and Russia collapsed.
16748  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British General Election on: February 15, 2009, 12:17:35 am
BTW, are there any swingometers already in place for the next general election, and if so, could I have a link please?
16749  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Constitutional Ammendments You would like to see passed on: February 13, 2009, 12:00:13 am
Repeal of the 17th Amendment.

Pass the Titles of Nobility Amendment

DC and Territorial Representation Amendment (to give them a single voting Representative, but no Senators, provided that they have a population at least as great as that of the least populous state, would at present give a Representative to DC and Puerto Rico.
16750  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Israel 2009 on: February 11, 2009, 01:26:01 am
Any chance Gil or Meimad gain enough soldier votes to put them over the 2% quota?  The Harretz site lists them at 1%, but whether that's 1.9% or 0.6% I can't tell.
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