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16726  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted on: June 18, 2008, 01:26:59 pm
2 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 872 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  California's shift from D Strong to D Lean now takes 46 changes to make it happen, so it will depart this list for now.  Definite change in favor of Obama today save for Nevada.

CO: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+5 changes needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  ( 3 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-9 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (14 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (16 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-5 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+4 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D  Lean[-4 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (12 changes can shift to R  Lean)   [unchanged]
16727  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Zogby Interactive State Polls out next week on: June 17, 2008, 03:53:59 pm
If you take a look at the states Zogby will be polling, it looks like his only criteria was whether he'd have a large enough sample size.



So what we need are some people to register on his site as being from Alabama. Wink
16728  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted on: June 17, 2008, 03:41:31 pm
6 new predictors since Sunday (2 days ago). With a total of 870 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  After remaining unchanged the last four times I checked, Ohio finally had a change, and in doing so flipped from D 40% to D 50%.  The latest Virginia poll apparently has caused people to be changing their Virginia predictions to be more favorable to Obama. (I was among them, but my change was not to the percentage but rather in my level of confidence from R Lean to R Tossup.)  Indeed, overall, the changes to predictions were favorable to Obama, tho perversely, in changes that would affect the bar graph, McCain has a small advantage.

CA: D 50% Strong (43 changes can shift to D  Lean[+6 changes needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (26 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+3 changes needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (12 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+3 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (13 changes can shift to D  Lean[+4 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
MO: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+5 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to D  Lean[-2 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  40%[-10 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (12 changes can shift to R  Lean[+4 changes needed]
16729  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Official Atlasia Presidential Debate Thread on: June 17, 2008, 12:06:48 am
I believe that Atlasia has suffered most from our tendency to regard some of the more interesting issues as settled.  I also intend to inject some much needed partisanship so as to make the Senate elections more exciting by offering a President's List in August which will be based on how much Senators support the initiatives I make as President.

As for the schedule, that question was one I deeply considered before I offered my name for consideration.

I have held most every office except Chief Justice, Secretary of External Affairs, and of course, President.  I believe I have served credibly in all of those offices, but did my best work as Southeast Governor, where I worked diligently to pass a much needed base of legislation to provide a uniform set of laws rather than leave things to be left as a mish-mash that would be difficult for people to point out where the status of various issues was.  If elected President, I shall work to insure that there is an Atlasian passed law that addresses every one of the Powers of the Senate so as keep our government from having to deal with the mish-mash of conflicting and overly complex laws that Atlasia inherited from the United States and its constituent States.
16730  General Discussion / History / Re: Presidential Trivia on: June 15, 2008, 10:39:03 pm
If you don't insist they all have been received in the same year, Andrew Jackson.  If you do insist then both Harrison and Van Buren topped 1 million in 1840.
16731  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Same-sex marriage legalized in Norway on: June 15, 2008, 10:07:14 pm
I never thought of gays as being all that screechy in the first place. Tongue
16732  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: City Hall on: June 15, 2008, 09:59:08 pm
If you don't mind I'd like to name both XVII and XVIII, even tho I want to play XVII

XVII - Oudedokken

The Old Docks (across the river from XVIII Nieuwedokken [New Docks]) isn't as bustling as it once was.  With Nieuwedokken  having the better transportation links, more extensive dock facilities and relative nearness to the airport, Oudedokken has seen a gradual decline in industry and conversion of some structures not immediately on the waterfront to other uses since World War II.  The area immediately around Olympische Stadion was demolished in the late 1960's as part of an urban renewal plan and abortive Olympic bid that left a large stadium that gets little use save when the city's two main soccer teams play each other or a visiting Eredivisie team, and their usual stadia wouldn't be able to hold the expected crowd.

The two metro stops are Oudedokken and Olympische, with Olympische being the one with the planned second feeder on the metro.
16733  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted on: June 15, 2008, 06:45:25 pm
3 new predictors since Friday (2 days ago). With a total of 864 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  Slight advantage to the Dems, but other than Flordia, nothing that can be categorized as more than statistical noise.

CA: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 change needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  ( 9 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-5 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 9 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
MO: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (11 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  50%)    [unchanged]
PA: D 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D  Lean[-2 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 8 changes can shift to R  Lean[-2 changes needed]
16734  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / RINO to run for Oregon Attorney General on: June 14, 2008, 02:12:42 pm
Most times, the term RINO is thrown about purely as an epithet, but not this time.

No one filed in the Republican primary for Attorney General, so it was the write-in votes that determined who won.  The winner was John Kroger, the Democratic nominee.  Kroger has accepted the Republican nomination so as to keep the Republican Party state committee from choosing someone else to fill a vacancy.

(link)
16735  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted on: June 14, 2008, 01:52:41 pm
I have a question. How many changes would it take until NC moves to lean McCain.

At the moment, it would take 59 changed predictions to shift NC from R Strong to R Lean.  I keep an eye out for States like NC that have a 5 to10% margin to see if they need adding to the list, but I don't bother keeping track of the exact margin each day due to time.  The full list of those waiting in the wings right now is:

DE: D 50%  Lean  (55 changes to D Strong)
IA: D 40% Tossup (62 changes to D  50%)
NC: R 50% Strong (59 changes to R  Lean)
OH: D 40% Tossup (82 changes to D  30%)
TX: R 60% Strong (66 changes to R  50%)
16736  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: City Hall on: June 14, 2008, 01:05:38 pm
Two things.

It would be nice to know something about the surrounding area, if for no other reason that to see where the city might add arrondissement XX.  (Annexation battles can be interesting.)

Also how far to the ocean and nearest metro areas
16737  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted on: June 13, 2008, 07:10:45 pm
2 new predictors since yesterday, With a total of 861 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  I'll leave analysis to Tim Russert today.

CA: D 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
CO: D 50% Tossup (22 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 change needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (14 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+2 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (10 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean[+4 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (11 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-4 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-4 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-4 changes needed]
OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  50%)    [unchanged]
PA: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D  Lean[+3 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (10 changes can shift to R  Lean[+1 change needed]
16738  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted on: June 12, 2008, 10:58:15 pm
No new predictors since yesterday, just people changing their existing predictions.  With a total of 859 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy shifts.  Slight trend to the Democrats, but not much activity of any sort today.

CA: D 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 changes needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+4 changes needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (12 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-1 change needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 9 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  30%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup (16 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (17 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  50%)    [unchanged]
PA: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
VA: R 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 9 changes can shift to R  Lean[+1 change needed]
16739  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: Thirty Six "swing" states??? on: June 12, 2008, 03:17:33 pm


You got the colors wrong (at least for this site, that is.)
16740  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted on: June 11, 2008, 10:54:40 pm
We have 8 new predictions since yesterday.  With a total of 859 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy shifts.  Michigan and Pennsylvania saw the most change in the collective wisdon today, but in opposite directions.


CA: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (17 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+3 changes needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (13 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+3 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 8 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D  Lean) [+10 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-3 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (17 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-3 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  50%)    [unchanged]
PA: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean[-6 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 8 changes can shift to R  Lean[+2 changes needed]
16741  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted on: June 10, 2008, 09:38:33 pm
We have 3 new predictions since yesterday.  With a total of 851 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy changes.  Ohio flipped from D 50% to D 40%.  Michigan saw a flurry of changes for some reason.


CA: D 50% Strong (35 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
CO: D 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1 change needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (10 change  can shift to R Tossup) [+1 change needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 6 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
MI: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D  Lean) [+13 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (24 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (22 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  50%)   [+2 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 6 changes can shift to R  Lean[+2 changes needed]
16742  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: SPRING 2008 PROGRESSIVE CONVENTION - OFFICIAL THREAD on: June 10, 2008, 07:06:00 pm
Uncommitted delegate - Northeast, voting for our current president Keystone Phil.
16743  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Answer the previous poster's question and ask the next poster anything you w on: June 10, 2008, 03:35:39 pm
$12, not including the tip

Metric system, U.S. customary, or Imperial?
16744  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Third Reich of Previous Poster Signature Opinions Thread on: June 10, 2008, 03:31:53 pm
Hmmm.

As for an earlier one that actually interests me enough to comment:
Joe, why is there a picture of a Gary Coleman doll doing an impression of Obama in your sig?
16745  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Knife Control on: June 10, 2008, 03:21:39 pm
I'm amazed at the people who think I was seriously proposing this.  I thought I had enough of a reputation here that people would realize I had my tongue planted firmly in cheek.
16746  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: What if all stocks just split? on: June 10, 2008, 03:19:46 pm
The reason stocks are split (or do a reverse split) is to keep the price within a desired range.  Since a multiple of 100 shares is the usual size of a sale, if a stock is too pricey, it may deter individual investors from buying it and thus depress the value of the stock.  Conversely, if the stock is too cheap, it will get delisted from major stock exchanges.  Such a forced split as CF proposed would essentially hurt smaller valued stocks slightly and help larger valued stocks slightly.  However, smaller valued stocks increase stock churn and with more shareholders, increase costs for shareholder communications.  A few companies spurn stock splits for that reason, the most famous being Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, which has a share price of over $100,000. As a result is sold on the NYSE as single shares rather than the more usual 100 share lots.
16747  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2008 Irish Lisbon Treaty Referendum. on: June 09, 2008, 07:20:51 pm
Near Aberdeen. I expect it to rain a lot. (After spending a week in the States where it was regularly 30+ Celsius and where I couldn't breathe at all due to the humidity I don't think I'll mind too much.)

30 Celsius ain't bad for this time of year.  35 is when it get to be called hot around here and it almost reached a scorching 40 here today.
16748  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What if-1968 Democratic National Convention on: June 09, 2008, 07:13:06 pm
Unless the State parties split on who to support, starting a third party run after the convention is simply too late.  If McCarthy wasn't willing to try it with Humphrey as the Democratic nominee, he's not going to try it with Kennedy as the Democratic nominee (unless Kennedy were to try to forge a Kennedy/Wallace ticket to reunify the Southern Democrats).

Kennedy/Wallace isn't as crazy as it sounds at first glance.  If you set aside their positions on the war and civil rights, the two were fairly close on the issues.  While Kennedy/Wallace won't happen in 1968, if Kennedy wins in '68 and decides he wants a new Vice President for his second term, Kennedy/Wallace '72 would definitely have been a possibility if the war was not a hot issue and Wallace had moderated his anti-civil rights stance at least as much as he had in OTL.
16749  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted on: June 09, 2008, 06:52:17 pm
We have 1 new prediction since yesterday.  With a total of 848 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy changes.  West Virginia has shifted from R Lean to R Strong.  The pattern of the changes leads me to believe that most activity is by people who had been predicting Clinton would be the nominee and are updating their maps to reflect Obama as the nominee.


CA: D 50% Strong (35 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  ( 9 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+8 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 6 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D  Lean[-5 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (26 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (19 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-9 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-9 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (22 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-9 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 change needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (41 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+1 change needed]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 4 changes can shift to R  Lean[+4 changes needed]
16750  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: What if-1968 Democratic National Convention on: June 08, 2008, 11:08:56 pm
Humphrey did debate McCarthy in front of the California delegation during the convention.

With a moderator and all that or just the two of them making their case to the delegation at the same time?  The latter I can believe, though if Kennedy is still alive, then there'd be no reason to hold a debate/conversation in front of Kennedy's California delegates.
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