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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Lake County, Florida Election Results on: November 28, 2014, 09:33:00 pm
If you have any requests (Elections starting from 2012, I have no way to get the precinct shapes before the 2012 elections) please ask in this thread!

Here you go - 2008 precinct map I extracted from DRA and converted into something usable. You may want to clean up the lines to make them uniformly one pixel thick, but otherwise, it's perfectly ready to be colored!



I love you so much omg. This is wonderful!

Bad news: they don't have the precinct numbers for the 2008 map anymore Sad

Apparently they change the number of precincts per year, if anyone can find the extra one from the 2012 map to the 2014 will win some points.

But for the 2008 results, can you not extract precinct names/numbers from DRA and create a "labeled" map for use with any other results from 2008?
2  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: Game Moderation Reform Amendment II on: November 28, 2014, 08:49:27 pm
Abstain
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XIX: Melancholy and the Infinite Napping on: November 28, 2014, 08:18:02 pm
Let me reiterate, guys, I am not scared of death, nor should I be.  Nathan, I believe one can know definitively about their own salvation.  God doesn't want us to live in fear and wonder all our lives IF we will go to heaven or not.  He gives us the ability and the grace to know that we know that we know where we will spend eternity.  God is not the author of fear.  He is the author of peace.  The hymn says "Blessed Assurance, Jesus is mine.  O what a foretaste of glory divine.  Heir of salvation, purchase of God.  Born of His spirit, washed in His blood.  This is my story, this is my song, praising my Savior all the day long.  This is my story, this is my song, praising my Savior all the day long."  That hymn tells it like it is.  That doesn't sound like fear and wonder to me, that sounds like complete assurance and absolute peace.

Carrying a living hope rather than a dead certainty is not 'fear', Bushie, it's just humility.

A reasonable Christian (not Bushie) could justify living past 40 by spreading the Good Word to people who actually need to hear it, instead of - quite literally - preaching to the choir all the time. Of course, all Bushie spreads are his grotesque legs apart on the La-Z-Boy after eating 3,000 calories and before watching 10 hours of people beating the crap out of each other. I can't possibly figure out what use God would have in Heaven for someone who merely pays him lip service, does nothing to spread the tenets of his faith in a meaningful way, chronically sins without actually acknowledging his wrongdoings and addressing them, and spends literally all of his free time lounging around like a sloth.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama "blames Bush" on: November 28, 2014, 06:52:20 pm
20 years isn't going to be enough to remedy everything that reckless administration and their GOP Congress did, much less 5-6.  Blame away, Barry, you've every right. 

Yeah, Obama actually blames Bush way too little, not too much.

This is obviously a by-product of our country's love of racial stereotypes; "there goes the black man blaming someone else for his problems".
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Don't look now but the oil market is collapsing on: November 28, 2014, 06:49:31 pm
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/11/28/stocks-friday/19608677/

Quote
Stocks ended mostly lower -- but with the Dow eking out a new record close -- as Wall Street separated the winners and losers tied to nosediving oil prices and kept a close tabs on Black Friday sales.

A barrel of Texas Intermediate crude settled at $66.15 Friday -- a whopping 10.2% drop.

LOL
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XIX: Melancholy and the Infinite Napping on: November 28, 2014, 06:44:02 pm
Quote
Am I a Candidate for Weight Loss Surgery?
                        
Research supports the benefits of weight loss surgery for those with a BMI between 35 and 39.9 with obesity related health conditions such as type 2 diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea, high blood pressure, osteoarthritis and other obesity related conditions. You could be a candidate for surgical weight loss if you meet any of the following criteria:

  • You are more than 100 lbs. over your ideal body weight.
  • You have a Body Mass Index (BMI) of over 40.
  • You have a BMI of over 35 and are experiencing severe negative health effects, such as high blood pressure or diabetes, related to being severely overweight.
  • You are unable to achieve a healthy body weight for a sustained period of time, even through medically-supervised dieting.

7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 50% of Republicans support impeaching Obama on: November 27, 2014, 06:55:05 pm
I support impeachment of Obama and I would have supported impeaching Bush post 2003.

Good thing you don't get your way because the USA would be chaos with three straight Presidential impeachment trials.

Maybe it would send them a message?  Seriously, if Americans stop voting for power-hungry politicians who care nothing about the Constitution, or the best interests of the American people, simply because of their partisan affiliation, we might get some real change.

Sounds like we should impeach the American public instead.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: California cities that swung Republican on: November 27, 2014, 06:43:09 pm
Lassen County went from going for Meg Whitman 50-42 to going for Kashkari 67-33. Wonder what Brown did to piss those people off.

WTF happened in Lassen County? Kashkari lived around Lake Tahoe for awhile when he decided to go all mountain man, but that isn't Lassen...

     I remember it gave the largest margin of any county to recall Gray Davis. I don't know why, but it occasionally seems to give an ultra-Republican result.

Lassen County is one of a number of traditionally working class counties in the West that ditched the Democratic Party in the 90s due to industrial decline, the death of the Greatest Generation and the Democratic Party's preoccupation with the environment and social issues.

Look at Clearwater County in Idaho or Coos County in Oregon and you'll find the same trend: retired/former loggers hate the Democratic Party.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why didn't the Democrats run more aggressively on the economy this year? on: November 27, 2014, 05:25:10 pm
C'mon Griff, you know better than to suggest that a politician run against things that happened 5+ years ago. Let me guess, you think Carter should have spent the 1980 election talking about Watergate Roll Eyes

We're not talking about Watergate - we're talking about a series of policies and actions that created consequences of a magnitude felt once per century. It is not a thing; it is the thing. With respect to your Watergate example: I mean, the notion works for the Right, no? ACA was passed five years ago, yet they're still getting plenty of mileage out of saying they're going to repeal it. It wasn't that long ago that we were still catching flak over the stimulus. Part of Obama's re-election was cemented on the notion of "Remember GWB? Remember those guys who crashed it all?". As long as Republicans want to equate Democrats to Obama and his policies, we should be more than willing to return the favor and equate them to Bush and his policies.

There are millions of good-paying jobs available in this country right now that can't be filled (which ultimately impedes working class hiring), but we have too many 20th century workers and not enough 21st century workers.

Before we really get into it, can you clarify what you mean by "20th century" as opposed to "21st century" workers?


Broadly speaking, the type of job where you could earn $15/hour or more in today's terms with nothing more than a HS degree. The difference between a protectionist economy and a globalized one.  The difference between an economy where only white males had to compete for work and one where everybody is competing against one another.

I probably should clarify that I mean "we have too many people with a 20th century working mindset", as many of these people either are working in 21st century jobs (the minimum wage ones or those that pay only slightly better) or not working at all post-recession.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Don't look now but the oil market is collapsing on: November 27, 2014, 04:31:34 pm
Quote from: There’s a Giant Contradiction at the Heart of the U.S. Economy
Suppose you told an economist these facts and only these facts: Long-term interest rates have fallen sharply over just a few months. Prices for oil and other much-needed commodities have been in free fall in the face of weak demand. Markets are predicting that inflation will be low in the years ahead and that the central bank will keep interest rates lower for longer.

Knowing only those facts, the economist would conclude that this country was staring down the barrel of a significant economic slowdown, and maybe even a recession.

What would that economist conclude, though, if stock prices are consistently rising toward record highs, job gains are the best in years, corporate sales and profits are rising, and business surveys and other real-time indicators of the economy point to steady expansion?

That country, of course, would seem to have a perfectly strong economic outlook. And as you have surely guessed, both these situations apply to the same country at the same time, which is to say the United States in November 2014.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/22/upshot/is-the-economic-outlook-great-or-lousy-making-sense-of-markets-mixed-messages.html?abt=0002&abg=1&_r=0
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Lake County, Florida Election Results on: November 27, 2014, 07:20:43 am
If you have any requests (Elections starting from 2012, I have no way to get the precinct shapes before the 2012 elections) please ask in this thread!

Here you go - 2008 precinct map I extracted from DRA and converted into something usable. You may want to clean up the lines to make them uniformly one pixel thick, but otherwise, it's perfectly ready to be colored!

12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy Thanksgiving! (2014 Edition) on: November 27, 2014, 06:16:45 am
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Chuck Schumer: Focus on Obamacare was wrong. on: November 27, 2014, 06:12:51 am

Yeah, the guy was totally inept as DSCC chairman from 2005-2009.

oh wait

In all fairness when you're the opposition party and the President is f***ing up as horribly as Bush did it's pretty easy for the base to turn out. Anyone can do it.

The times when we're in power are a real challenge though. Schumer's leadership wouldn't have done much to change the Senate results in 2010 or 2014.

Howard Dean's umbrella of the DNC chairmanship, DFA and the 50 State Strategy certainly helped as well.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: November 27, 2014, 06:08:49 am
Thought you guys might be interested in this; here's to hoping BK has the time to scour the 2015-2016 incoming class to see if I missed any potential freshman rural white Dems that were elected in upsets:

Does anyone know how many white rural Democrats are left in the old Confederacy, particularly in the legislatures?  I imagine most would be concentrated in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas, as well as a few in the Virginia Senate (Creigh Deeds, John Edwards, Lynwood Lewis).  

Georgia: Number of rural white Democrats in the 2011-2012 session:
State House - 5/180
State Senate - 1/56

STATE HOUSE:


  • Sistie Hudson (D-Sparta) declined to run again in 2012 and instead ran for a County Commission Chair after they carved her district up (in full disclosure, though: she was in a very black and very safe district prior). She was first elected in 1996. She was replaced in 2012 by Mack Jackson, a black Democrat. She was a rural white Democrat who declined to run in 2012, representing a rural majority-black electorate.
     

  • Carol Fullerton (D-Albany) opted not to run again in 2014 upon facing a likely primary challenge. She was first elected in 2008. The guy running against her, Darrel Ealum (also white), ran unopposed. This district can only be considered "rural" in the sense that it is not one of the larger, typical metro areas in Georgia. It's also a 58% black district. She was a rural white Democrat who declined to run in 2014, representing a majority-black electorate. She was replaced by a rural white Democrat.
     

  • Debbie Buckner (D-Junction City) is still in office, and won with 64% of the vote in 2014. She was first elected in 2002. Her district is 51% black VAP. Based on the tendency for blacks in this part of the state to be a few points more Republican in State House contests, it appears that she won 40-45% of the white vote in 2014 (!). She is a rural white Democrat representing a majority-black district/majority-white electorate.
     

  • Rick Crawford (D-Cedartown) was one of only two remaining rural North Georgia Democrats as of 2012, and one of only three non-Atlanta based white Democrats in both chambers to represent a majority-white district. He served from 2006-2012. Being low-hanging fruit and after winning a nail-biter in 2008 (he had no opposition, surprisingly, in 2010), the GOP slightly altered his district in an attempt to sink him. He famously imploded in late-summer 2012, when he publicly stated that "if I win in November, I will switch to the Republican Party". In a district where he would have likely got 45%, he only won 33% against 24 year-old Republican Trey Kelley. He was a rural white Democrat who lost in 2012, representing a 80% white electorate.
     

  • Barbara Reece (D-Menlo) was the other of only two remaining rural North Georgia Democrats as of 2012, and also the other of only three non-Atlanta based white Democrats in both chambers to represent a majority-white district. She served from 1998-2012. She was my favorite of the five here, because she was the only "local" Democratic State House member remaining in my general area, representing Chattooga County (which the only locally-controlled Democratic county remaining in North GA) and parts of Floyd County. She won with 61% of the vote in 2008; they altered her district ever so slightly like they did Crawford's in 2011. Despite all of this, she managed to win 58% of the vote in Chattooga County in 2012 (69% Romney), which was half of the district. She got 42% of the vote in the Floyd half (75% Romney), which had slightly higher turnout. She got roughly 40% of the white vote in 2012. In the end the gerrymandering was just enough, and she lost 51-49 in an district that voted 72% Romney. She was a rural white Democrat who narrowly lost in 2012, representing a 90% white electorate.

STATE SENATE:


  • George Hooks (D-Americus) was the sole remaining white rural Democrat in the Georgia State Senate after 2010, serving from 1990-2012. He retired in 2012. His district as of 2010 was a 51% white VAP district. His district was dissected thoroughly in 2011, being split into four pieces. The newly-formed district in which he lived would not have re-elected him, and he had only formerly represented about 1/8 of its population. The single-largest piece of his former district to remain intact was joined with part of Columbus, becoming a 53% white district (which elected Ed Harbison, a black Democrat). He was the last rural white Democrat in the State Senate and represented a 55% white electorate.



Georgia: Number of rural white Democrats in the 2013-2014 session:
State House - 2/180
State Senate - 0/56

STATE HOUSE:


  • Carol Fullerton (D-Albany) opted not to run again in 2014 upon facing a likely primary challenge. She was first elected in 2008. The guy running against her, Darrel Ealum (also white), ran unopposed. This district can only be considered "rural" in the sense that it is not one of the larger, typical metro areas in Georgia. It's also a 58% black district. She was a rural white Democrat who declined to run in 2014, representing a majority-black electorate. She was replaced by a rural white Democrat.
     

  • Debbie Buckner (D-Junction City) is still in office, and won with 64% of the vote in 2014. She was first elected in 2002. Her district is 51% black VAP. Based on the tendency for blacks in this part of the state to be a few points more Republican in State House contests, it appears that she won 40-45% of the white vote in 2014 (!). She is a rural white Democrat representing a majority-black district/majority-white electorate.
     



Georgia: Number of rural white Democrats in the 2015-2016 session:
State House - 2/180**
State Senate - 0/56**

** I haven't checked to see if any white rural Democrats managed to either unseat a Republican or beat out a black Democrat in a primary, but it's highly doubtful either of these things happened.


STATE HOUSE:


  • Darrel Ealum (D-Albany) is the sole remaining white rural Democrat in the entire General Assembly for the 2015-2016 session. This district can only be considered "rural" in the sense that it is not one of the larger, typical metro areas in Georgia. It's also a 58% black district. He is the sole rural white Democrat who will be inaugurated in 2015, representing a majority-black electorate.
     

  • Debbie Buckner (D-Junction City) is still in office, and won with 64% of the vote in 2014. She was first elected in 2002. Her district is 51% black VAP. Based on the tendency for blacks in this part of the state to be a few points more Republican in State House contests, it appears that she won 40-45% of the white vote in 2014 (!). She is a rural white Democrat representing a majority-black district/majority-white electorate.
     



BONUS ROUND:


  • Rusty Kidd (I-Milledgeville) ran in 2010 against a Democrat and won with 58% of the vote. He hasn't faced opposition since then. He represents a 60% white electorate. I am including him because for all intents and purposes, he is very similar to John Barrow in terms of how he votes (although a bit more conservative). He has voted against items such as welfare drug testing and anti-immigration bills, and mysteriously vanishes whenever items such as abortion restrictions, unemployment cuts or assisted suicide prohibition show up for a vote. Unfortunately, he also voted to approve the "guns everywhere" law, put the Ten Commandments in the Capitol, and block Medicaid expansion. He has a 69% lifetime ACU rating.



    There are no rural white Democrats remaining in the Georgia General Assembly as of the 2015-2016 session that represent majority-white districts.

    Debbie Buckner likely wins re-election with a nominally majority-white electorate, but her district is 51% black VAP.

    There are only two rural white Democrats remaining in both chambers combined (both in the State House).

    Rusty Kidd (I) is the only non-Republican representing a majority-white district/electorate in either chamber of the General Assembly.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Surviving Southern Democrats If Landrieu Goes Down on: November 27, 2014, 06:05:46 am
Does anyone know how many white rural Democrats are left in the old Confederacy, particularly in the legislatures?  I imagine most would be concentrated in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas, as well as a few in the Virginia Senate (Creigh Deeds, John Edwards, Lynwood Lewis).  

Georgia: Number of rural white Democrats in the 2011-2012 session:
State House - 5/180
State Senate - 1/56

STATE HOUSE:


  • Sistie Hudson (D-Sparta) declined to run again in 2012 and instead ran for a County Commission Chair after they carved her district up (in full disclosure, though: she was in a very black and very safe district prior). She was first elected in 1996. She was replaced in 2012 by Mack Jackson, a black Democrat. She was a rural white Democrat who declined to run in 2012, representing a rural majority-black electorate.
     

  • Carol Fullerton (D-Albany) opted not to run again in 2014 upon facing a likely primary challenge. She was first elected in 2008. The guy running against her, Darrel Ealum (also white), ran unopposed. This district can only be considered "rural" in the sense that it is not one of the larger, typical metro areas in Georgia. It's also a 58% black district. She was a rural white Democrat who declined to run in 2014, representing a majority-black electorate. She was replaced by a rural white Democrat.
     

  • Debbie Buckner (D-Junction City) is still in office, and won with 64% of the vote in 2014. She was first elected in 2002. Her district is 51% black VAP. Based on the tendency for blacks in this part of the state to be a few points more Republican in State House contests, it appears that she won 40-45% of the white vote in 2014 (!). She is a rural white Democrat representing a majority-black district/majority-white electorate.
     

  • Rick Crawford (D-Cedartown) was one of only two remaining rural North Georgia Democrats as of 2012, and one of only three non-Atlanta based white Democrats in both chambers to represent a majority-white district. He served from 2006-2012. Being low-hanging fruit and after winning a nail-biter in 2008 (he had no opposition, surprisingly, in 2010), the GOP slightly altered his district in an attempt to sink him. He famously imploded in late-summer 2012, when he publicly stated that "if I win in November, I will switch to the Republican Party". In a district where he would have likely got 45%, he only won 33% against 24 year-old Republican Trey Kelley. He was a rural white Democrat who lost in 2012, representing a 80% white electorate.
     

  • Barbara Reece (D-Menlo) was the other of only two remaining rural North Georgia Democrats as of 2012, and also the other of only three non-Atlanta based white Democrats in both chambers to represent a majority-white district. She served from 1998-2012. She was my favorite of the five here, because she was the only "local" Democratic State House member remaining in my general area, representing Chattooga County (which the only locally-controlled Democratic county remaining in North GA) and parts of Floyd County. She won with 61% of the vote in 2008; they altered her district ever so slightly like they did Crawford's in 2011. Despite all of this, she managed to win 58% of the vote in Chattooga County in 2012 (69% Romney), which was half of the district. She got 42% of the vote in the Floyd half (75% Romney), which had slightly higher turnout. She got roughly 40% of the white vote in 2012. In the end the gerrymandering was just enough, and she lost 51-49 in an district that voted 72% Romney. She was a rural white Democrat who narrowly lost in 2012, representing a 90% white electorate.

STATE SENATE:


  • George Hooks (D-Americus) was the sole remaining white rural Democrat in the Georgia State Senate after 2010, serving from 1990-2012. He retired in 2012. His district as of 2010 was a 51% white VAP district. His district was dissected thoroughly in 2011, being split into four pieces. The newly-formed district in which he lived would not have re-elected him, and he had only formerly represented about 1/8 of its population. The single-largest piece of his former district to remain intact was joined with part of Columbus, becoming a 53% white district (which elected Ed Harbison, a black Democrat). He was the last rural white Democrat in the State Senate and represented a 55% white electorate.



Georgia: Number of rural white Democrats in the 2013-2014 session:
State House - 2/180
State Senate - 0/56

STATE HOUSE:


  • Carol Fullerton (D-Albany) opted not to run again in 2014 upon facing a likely primary challenge. She was first elected in 2008. The guy running against her, Darrel Ealum (also white), ran unopposed. This district can only be considered "rural" in the sense that it is not one of the larger, typical metro areas in Georgia. It's also a 58% black district. She was a rural white Democrat who declined to run in 2014, representing a majority-black electorate. She was replaced by a rural white Democrat.
     

  • Debbie Buckner (D-Junction City) is still in office, and won with 64% of the vote in 2014. She was first elected in 2002. Her district is 51% black VAP. Based on the tendency for blacks in this part of the state to be a few points more Republican in State House contests, it appears that she won 40-45% of the white vote in 2014 (!). She is a rural white Democrat representing a majority-black district/majority-white electorate.
     



Georgia: Number of rural white Democrats in the 2015-2016 session:
State House - 2/180**
State Senate - 0/56**

STATE HOUSE:


  • Darrel Ealum (D-Albany) is one of two remaining white rural Democrats in the entire General Assembly for the 2015-2016 session. This district can only be considered "rural" in the sense that it is not one of the larger, typical metro areas in Georgia. It's also a 58% black district. He is the sole rural white Democrat who will be newly-inaugurated in 2015, representing a majority-black electorate.
     

  • Debbie Buckner (D-Junction City) is still in office, and won with 64% of the vote in 2014. She was first elected in 2002. Her district is 51% black VAP. Based on the tendency for blacks in this part of the state to be a few points more Republican in State House contests, it appears that she won 40-45% of the white vote in 2014 (!). She is a rural white Democrat representing a majority-black district/majority-white electorate.
     



BONUS ROUND:


  • Rusty Kidd (I-Milledgeville) ran in 2010 against a Democrat and won with 58% of the vote. He hasn't faced opposition since then. He represents a 60% white electorate. I am including him because for all intents and purposes, he is very similar to John Barrow in terms of how he votes (although a bit more conservative). He has voted against items such as welfare drug testing and anti-immigration bills, and mysteriously vanishes whenever items such as abortion restrictions, unemployment cuts or assisted suicide prohibition show up for a vote. Unfortunately, he also voted to approve the "guns everywhere" law, put the Ten Commandments in the Capitol, and block Medicaid expansion. He has a 69% lifetime ACU rating.

    ** I haven't checked to see if any white rural Democrats managed to either unseat a Republican or beat out a black Democrat in a primary, but it's highly doubtful either of these things happened.

    There are no rural white Democrats remaining in the Georgia General Assembly as of the 2015-2016 session that represent majority-white districts.

    Debbie Buckner likely wins re-election with a nominally majority-white electorate, but her district is 51% black VAP.

    There are only two rural white Democrats remaining in both chambers combined (both in the State House).

    Rusty Kidd (I) is the only non-Republican representing a majority-white district/electorate in either chamber of the General Assembly.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is another revolution inevitable? on: November 27, 2014, 03:47:13 am
And, this idea that we're living increasingly in a police state, that's just nonsense.

Well, it's not to those of us who haven't lived under the thumb of the likes of Giuliani and Bloomberg since we were children. Particularly in suburban America, there is a massive militarization of local police departments over the past decade that in no way shape or form is justified given the national downward trend of violent and non-violent crime alike (supported in part by the stats you posted).

But lo and behold, guess who is increasingly inhabiting suburban America these days? Though probably not intentional (as the federal government's wasted splurge on war equipment and local/state/federal politicians' fetishes with appearing to be "tough on crime" made a perfect marriage in this case), the disbursement of excessive equipment to law enforcement in select jurisdictions continues to follow the migration of minority communities as they move away from residing exclusively in urban areas. Cities with 10,000 people and crime rates below the national average do not need their own SWAT teams - let alone a freaking tank.



I highly doubt we're about to see any sort of "revolution" of sorts. It would have been far more likely to have occurred under economic circumstances in 2010-2011 if it were going to happen. With the rapid expansion of law enforcement's capabilities, it will only occur if/when people become as desperate as past generations (when they truly have nothing left to lose).
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Americans favor immigration executive action, 67-28 on: November 27, 2014, 02:59:57 am
OK, fine. But what about CNN's poll ? Their question wording is correct and they show even worse numbers for Obama than Quinnipiac ...

Quote
In the speech, Obama announced that he will implement those policies by issuing executive orders, which means that they will take effect without any action by Congress. Do you favor or oppose Obama using executive orders to implement those policies?

41% Favour
56% Oppose

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/11/26/cnnorc-immigration-poll112614.pdf

That's still a loaded question to a degree. For one, it uses buzz-words like "executive orders" and "without any action by Congress", which implies that he is somehow breaking the law or engaging in shady behavior. Secondly, it doesn't actually detail what he is doing; when people are told what the plan entails, they tend to favor it. While there was a vague question (below) that was asked right before this one, it didn't do the policy justice. Plus, I have little faith in most who are surveyed to give consistent answers. Their own poll shows this right above/below that question:

Quote
As you may know, Barack Obama gave a speech on immigration on Thursday night. In that speech, he announced changes in how the U.S. will deal with some immigrants who are in this country illegally, as well as changes in border security and deportation policies. Overall, do you favor or oppose the policies that Obama announced in that speech?

Favor 42%
Oppose 46%
No opinion 13%

A statistical tie with no majority when given a vague description of what is actually being done.

Quote
A major part of Obama's new policy changes will allow some immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally to stay here temporarily and apply for a work permit if they have children who are U.S. citizens. Other immigrants in the U.S. illegally will not be eligible for this program and can still be deported. Do you think that plan goes too far, does not go far enough, or is about right?

Too far 26%
Not far enough 22%
About right 50%

No opinion 1%

72% of the country approves of what he is doing, with a chunk of them wishing he'd do even more. The American public likes what is being done, but not how it is being done. This isn't anything new. At the end of the day, the policy will be what matters in terms of persuasion and sentiment - not the process. 
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Chuck Schumer: Focus on Obamacare was wrong. on: November 27, 2014, 02:35:55 am
Quote
Democrats’ top message man Chuck Schumer

LOL

Quote
Already this week Terry McAuliffe accused Democrats of flubbing the midterm elections. Bill Clinton said the party lacked a “national advertising campaign.”

Would've, could've, should've. I'm so tired of Democrats within 100 miles of Wall Street providing their "insight", which has invariably led to nothing but unmitigated disasters for the Democratic Party and public policy.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which American major political party would Iosif Stalin identify with? on: November 27, 2014, 01:47:37 am
The one that created the Department of Homeland Security, of course.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which should Democrats focus most on? on: November 27, 2014, 01:44:14 am
Outside of a couple of battleground states in particular, turnout was a much bigger focus in 2012 than 2014. The Democrats banked on being able to get 2012 turnout to or near 2008 turnout. They succeeded, and it paid dividends in both the presidential and senatorial contests.

We focused on persuading swing voters in 2014 - maybe more so than in any other midterm in modern history. Sure, there was that "Bannock Street Project", but it was built around a national model in which all of our candidates pandered, scurried and otherwise tried to act like people they weren't. What did that get us? The lowest post-WWII turnout ever. When you spend time pandering to a group that doesn't identify with your core values, you risk losing your fickle supporters (who are often more radical than people think). If successful with a persuasion effort, the former almost always outweighs the latter. In this past election, though, we completely failed to persuade swing voters AND depressed turnout at the same time.

Until Democrats learn how to reconnect to Middle America in a substantial way (which I would argue involves a leftward, populist turn on economics), we need to stick to what we do best: turnout. Persuading swing voters is something you do when you're the minority. We are not the minority in this country.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why didn't the Democrats run more aggressively on the economy this year? on: November 27, 2014, 01:26:16 am
Real median household income is still considerably lower than it was prior to the Recession. Things are slowly improving, but the average household (well, the median household, but you get the expression) is still poorer that it was before the crisis:

The Dems could try to argue that the recession would've been much worse without the stimulus etc (but that's old news so I doubt it would get them many votes) but trying to spin the current situation as a time of prosperity for most people would not go over well.

You're right about the energy boom, but can Obama really be credited with that? To be fair, no President can (or at least, no President should) be directly credited with economic developments of this nature but many people perceive Obama as an anti-oil/gas guy and a Dem advertising campaign stressing the energy boom probably wouldn't work too well since the don't really have any specific policies to attribute the boom to and it'd be pretty hard for them to beat the GOP at their own game in regard to energy.

Yeah, that's the status quo argument that's been getting used for years and is why Democrats are still getting hammered. Right-wing policies drove the country off of a cliff. The argument shouldn't be "is the economy better in every metric than it was before the Recession started?"; it should be "How much better is the economy now when compared to where it was after conservatives ran it off a cliff?".

Because while the economy is growing, the lower and middle classes aren't feeling it.  Most of the growth is happening to the already very wealthy.

Wages are stagnant and most of the new jobs are poor, low paying ones.  Saying that the economy's doing well would be pretty insensitive.

I'm going to say something, and before I get attacked, understand that I'm a white Southern working-class male who's 26 and still have yet to complete my Bachelor's, so everyone will hopefully withhold their own privilege when/if disagreeing.

That narrative (the "we're growing but people aren't feeling it yet") is because the economy has completely changed and the middle/working class has not adapted with it. We've been hearing it for years (since 2011 at least); Obama in part got re-elected by using this narrative. It's a nicety that politicians are still telling people who have become set in their ways, and I think it's actually detrimental to continue stating it.

You have tens of millions of people who think that they're still going to be able to find good-paying jobs and a steady future with nothing more than a HS degree. You have tens of millions of people who still aren't willing in many cases to learn a new skill set or go back to school. There are millions of good-paying jobs available in this country right now that can't be filled (which ultimately impedes working class hiring), but we have too many 20th century workers and not enough 21st century workers. This aspect of our economic malaise really doesn't have anything to do with the Recession, either; the Recession certainly sped up the process - like a strong wind prematurely dislodging dying leaves on a tree that were going to fall next week anyway - but this was coming one way or another. You can't blame Obama, Democrats, or (as much as I hate to say it) even Republicans, unless you want to go after them for blocking massive public works, training and education programs that were/are needed post-2008. Still, one has to ask: if all of the economic malaise and recession hasn't forced people to act on their own in these cases, would a public program really be embraced by all that many of these folk?

Obviously, this type of argument would be least effective with the exact and aforementioned group of people it applies to the most ("how dare you insult good ol' salt-of-the-earth, hardworking Americans!"), and simple minds are going to continue to blame one party or another. A combination of the Democratic Party and time have delivered everything that can be given the obstruction and political atmosphere right now - the economy's fundamentals at this point are strong, especially when isolating just the past 12 months. If you are still suffering in this economy but were prospering before the Recession, it is almost invariably your own fault for not going back to school, learning a new trade, or adapting in some other facet. Of course, that's not the line for interviews.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Speaker Boehner's turkey recipe isn't safe according to the USDA on: November 27, 2014, 01:02:29 am
I can hear every uber-conservative household in America rushing out last-minute right now to get a brand new turkey to prepare this way, just to stick it to those USDA know-it-alls.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Prof. Victor Sanchez Williams on: November 27, 2014, 12:20:55 am
I manually scanned from pages 150-425 for VSW's vote totals. Doesn't look very impressive. Macon begins at pg 1013:

Code:
Autauga 1
Baldwin        2
Barbour        0
Bibb        0
Blount 0
Bullock 0
Butler           -
Calhoun 1
Chambers       1
Cherokee        0
Chilton 1
Choctaw 1
Clarke 0
Clay        0
Cleburne        0
Coffee 2
Colbert 0
Conecuh 0
Coosa        0
Covington        0
Crenshaw        0
Cullman 2
Dallas        0
...
Macon                3
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Contrarian Thread: Bush Won. Fair and Square. on: November 26, 2014, 11:26:16 pm
The four times in which there has been a discrepancy between the popular vote and the Electoral College, the Democratic candidate won the popular vote and the Republican candidate managed to steal the election through the Electoral College. No need to try to spin or glamorize this particular instance.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 1 on: November 26, 2014, 11:17:18 pm
It took me over nine years. Congratulations!
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