Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 25, 2016, 02:12:49 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 421
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Gennifer Flowers at Monday's debate hurt Hillary or Trump more? on: Today at 12:36:07 am
Maybe Hillary needs to force Ivana with a clump of her hair ripped out to sit in the front row.

Violence?

At the very least, I'm pretty sure Hillary wouldn't have her raped repeatedly beforehand.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Gennifer Flowers at Monday's debate hurt Hillary or Trump more? on: Today at 12:33:02 am
Maybe Hillary needs to force Ivana with a clump of her hair ripped out to sit in the front row.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: California has a wild horse problem on: September 24, 2016, 11:38:43 pm
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie did worse to Hillary than what Nader did to Al Gore on: September 24, 2016, 05:05:56 am
If people think the notion of "Corrupt Hillary" or "Crooked Hillary" wouldn't have existed without Sanders - or a primary challenger at all - then they're horribly deluded. With that being said, having a candidate who was such a contrast to that really riled up and activated the kooky, apathetic leftists in this country. Getting a bunch of these low-information types together on social media while feeding them a deluge of inaccurate blog posts and spicy memes is a recipe for political disaster.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz to announce who he's voting for, likely Trump on: September 24, 2016, 12:12:04 am
I call him Lyen' Ted!

Also, how appropriate.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: No Fortune 100 CEOs Back Republican Donald Trump on: September 23, 2016, 11:36:03 pm
The Republicans aren't the working class party and that won't change with this election.  Whites love to overlook that many members of the working class are actually minorities.  Go figure!

Hate to break it to you dude, but the working class vote has been voting Republican for quite awhile now.

Uh, hate to break it to you, bud, but whites earning less than $50k per year are more Democratic than whites earning more than $50k per year. McCain won the former group by just 4; the latter group by 13. If you want to brag about the GOP winning working-class whites by a few percentage points as if it's some sort of mandate, then I guess you can do so...but the notion that they've been some reliably GOP voting bloc outside of the South for ages is ridiculous.

The only reason whites as a whole aren't a swing voting bloc is because of bourgeoisie cookie-cutter suburbanites.



7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has anyone seen this bizarre video of Hillary? on: September 23, 2016, 11:18:44 pm
These people are f[inks]ing idiots. Not only is not a damn one of them bright enough to figure out that she's yelling because of the noise coming from the crowd to which she's speaking, but they all want to pull out their sexism on top of that:

"SHRILL", "WHY IS SHE YELLING", "IT HURTS MY EARS"

Nobody complains about this when male politicians do it. These people need to be taken out of the gene-pool. Otherwise, the hatred of Obama over the past 8 years is going to look like a cake-walk by comparison.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Has the Clinton Post-Convention Air War Been a Failure? on: September 23, 2016, 08:09:04 pm
TV ads generally don't work. What I mean by that is they're a sort of must-do in that the groupthink says you need them, so all candidates runs them. Because of that, it's mainly just campaign inflation. Assuming two candidates are spending (roughly) equivalent amounts of money on ads, there isn't likely going to be any net benefit for one candidate or another among the swing crowds.

If, however, one side is drastically out-spending the other, then they are more likely to produce benefit for that candidate. Unfortunately, we can't compare and contrast alternate scenarios and so we'll never know what the situation would have definitely looked like without Clinton spending gobs on them...but if I had to go with my gut, then I'd say that she'd probably be doing even worse right now.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA-Landmark/WSBTV: Trump+4 on: September 23, 2016, 08:03:14 pm
The Clinton campaign isn't contesting Georgia: this is a fact, and a sad one. Even if all of the other signals weren't there, the fact that the Barksdale campaign - which ran about 4-5 months behind the Nunn campaign in terms of reaching out to the non-core ATL county parties on volunteer efforts - still managed to beat the Clinton campaign to the punch on this tells the story.

Any reason why they decided not to?

Could be any number of reasons. Georgia has 10 million people spread across 159 counties, so it's very difficult to coordinate that many entities. There are a lot of county parties that effectively exist only on paper, so there is a tendency for campaigns to focus on a narrow subset of counties where the share of the Democratic vote is large and the parties are actually active/engaged.

I admit that I'm gauging this on my personal experience with the campaigns, so this one part is anecdotal...I'm in the heavily Republican north, which often gets left out as a whole due to its lack of county-by-county Democratic organization and sheer margins, but...I'm also in the largest county in North Georgia outside of the metro and the one that generally serves as the "hub" for coordinating the other surrounding counties wrt training events, distribution of campaign paraphernalia, etc. We usually get contacted earlier by the campaigns.

We did a hell of a job in Whitfield in 2014 if you look at the swing in the Governor's race and that got noticed. When you combine that, our relative activity compared to the other surrounding counties and  the county's population + demographics, one assumes that if they were reaching out at all in this part of the state, then they'd reach out here first. Because of that, I'm betting that none of the other counties were contacted earlier and that our experience is a relative barometer.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA-Landmark/WSBTV: Trump+4 on: September 23, 2016, 07:48:31 pm
The Clinton campaign isn't contesting Georgia: this is a fact, and a sad one. Even if all of the other signals weren't there, the fact that the Barksdale campaign - which ran about 4-5 months behind the Nunn campaign in terms of reaching out to the non-core ATL county parties on volunteer efforts - still managed to beat the Clinton campaign to the punch on this tells the story.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The ultimate Versailles for Trump supporters.. on: September 23, 2016, 07:22:35 pm
Whilst, obviously, it's little known outside of political circles, probably the publication of 'the Emerging Democratic Majority'.

[Muh] "Coalition of the Ascendant"
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where did Donald Trump get his racialized rhetoric? From libertarians. on: September 23, 2016, 07:48:08 am
Despite the disagreements in this thread and at the very least, we can all agree that libertarians are the absolute worst...for when most socons hate or foist inequities upon entire groups of people, they at least do so while either being motivated by a belief in some form of absolute good/communal interest, or do so while having said convictions.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump may have just won NC for good on: September 23, 2016, 07:34:22 am

Oops, except the fact both the cop and the victim were both black? Whether black or white, they actually do deserve your pity for the fact instead of going home to a family like you did tonight they have to go sit in riot suits to protect a town from literally setting on fire from a group of criminals who are assaulting reporters, mugging white people because Huh, and looting stores in stupid ignorance of one of thousands of cases? My heart goes out to those who peacefully voice their opinions there and expressed their concern and anger with respect to law and authority, the rest are an embarrassment for the African American community.

What a joke. Liberals really have it so damn twisted when it comes to sympathizing with blatant lawlessness. It's a special kind of stupid.

Aww, those poor unpaid police officers. Somebody really oughta give 'em a paycheck for having to deal with those assaulting, mugging, looting, stupid, fire-setting criminal negroes!

It's hilarious how you use a police officer's $50,000 salary as basic justification for the complete lawlessness? You really must be that ignorant.

But "assaulting, mugging, looting, stupid, fire-setting criminal" is actually the perfect term and if you'd like videos of examples of every one of these I'm proud to offer them. You tack on "negroes" as an attack term to make me look like a bigot when there simply is a reality that you can't seem to accept about the wrong-doings? You are the special kind of stupid I referred to, especially if you have the ability to STILL carry a favor of the rioters over the police in such a twisted situation like this.

Nothing that has taken place is okay and 80% of them should all be in jail. I dare you to try and refute that.

Not a justification: merely a fact of life. Your melodramatic "thoughts and prayers"-style obsession is hilarious. Do we also need to feel sorry for the drive-thru worker at McDonald's because they had a really busy lunch hour today and the threshold for stress in their job description was experienced? They signed up for a paying gig and they knew the responsibilities of the job going in, including the maximum that would be required of them. There are a plethora of occupations that have higher mortality rates than cops, yet for some reason we're supposed to be in awe at the "bravery" of select groups of people who work for a living despite no correlation between that reverence and actual, statistical harm.

Those words you used: you used them for a reason.  I just did you a favor by putting all of your words together and saying what you really feel. They are the stereotypical words that get slapped onto black people no matter what they do or don't do by insecure white racists and their allies. People like you would literally start talking about "riots" and "looting" even if it were a perfectly peaceful protest that merely inconvenienced a bunch of out-of-touch white people, remarking about how "they must not have jobs to go to tomorrow if they're protesting tonight". You make yourself look like a bigot by dropping many of the numerous dog-whistles out of the book of cranky racism. Maybe if I'm lucky, I'll get to hear about "welfare queens", "thugs", "young bucks" and "Law and Order" before this thread is locked. Maybe a reference or two to "Pants Up! Don't Loot!"?

And I don't have to refute anything regarding your BS statistic: you've proven nothing. Make a claim, back it up with facts. The onus is on you. You and I both know that your "80% of them should all be in jail" is subjective, pulled-out-of-your-ass garbage.

I do have to say, though...it's amazing in this day and age to see so many non-Southern people want to lynch 'em one.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "Trump's election to lose" on: September 23, 2016, 06:13:55 am
It's sad and disturbing that we have an entire generation of active posters on this forum who are not familiar with the phrase "my numbers", for it is very much applicable here.

Of course, if you read the fine print, you'll see the hefty disclaimer of basically "these are not polls, they're not predicting chances/outcome of anything, and just show how much chatter on the internet there is about each candidate - good, bad or indifferent".
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump may have just won NC for good on: September 23, 2016, 01:35:07 am
BLM is a paramilitary racist group that has fanned violence by demonizing white cops and white people at large.

Those poor, poor white cops. Cry

Oops, except the fact both the cop and the victim were both black? Whether black or white, they actually do deserve your pity for the fact instead of going home to a family like you did tonight they have to go sit in riot suits to protect a town from literally setting on fire from a group of criminals who are assaulting reporters, mugging white people because Huh, and looting stores in stupid ignorance of one of thousands of cases? My heart goes out to those who peacefully voice their opinions there and expressed their concern and anger with respect to law and authority, the rest are an embarrassment for the African American community.

What a joke. Liberals really have it so damn twisted when it comes to sympathizing with blatant lawlessness. It's a special kind of stupid.

Aww, those poor unpaid police officers. Somebody really oughta give 'em a paycheck for having to deal with those assaulting, mugging, looting, stupid, fire-setting criminal negroes!
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was Warren the strongest potential Democrat on par with Biden this year? on: September 22, 2016, 11:05:50 pm
If Republican 'base theory', 'reaching out to the right' is supposedly valid, why not Democratic 'base theory', 'reaching out to the left'. Obama won his reelection because his coalition was larger, even with a handicap of lower turnout vs. '08.

Turnout wasn't actually lower than 2008 where it mattered. With the exception of OH/PA, every swing state had more voters cast ballots in 2012 than in 2008.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was Warren the strongest potential Democrat on par with Biden this year? on: September 22, 2016, 08:44:47 pm
In the primary? Absolutely. She would have carried virtually every Sanders supporter (minus the handful of Paultards that fetishize the "honest angry grandpa" shtick) and she would have pulled the necessary 5-10% of primary voters who are female and who voted for Clinton over Sanders literally only because they wanted to see a woman in the White House. The difference between Clinton winning and losing the primary was in fact just that.

In the general? Who's to say. Warren has this odd appeal among people who usually despise Generic Democrat. She's folksy. She emphasizes working-class economics. In focus groups among independents and Republicans in the run-up to the primaries, she performed better than anybody else tested (Democrat or Republican). Against a scam artist like Trump, I think she would have picked up at least one person from this kind of category for every one person she'd lose out of the "Coalition of the Ascendant" suburban upper-middle class white college graduate who's expecting a tax cut from Clinton crowd.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac CO Clinton +2 GA Trump +7 IA Trump +6 VA Clinton +6 on: September 22, 2016, 08:25:40 pm
JUNK POLLS!!!

Stick to the Northeast, Quinnijunk!
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can you Democrats please stop panicking? on: September 22, 2016, 08:12:23 am
3) Trump has for the entirety of the campaign had a peak in polling: 44%. With the exception of the short-lived convention bounce, this is where his aggregate performance tops out at before dropping again. This is where he is right now.

#JustSaying

20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Military Times poll of active duty troops: Trump +1...over Johnson on: September 22, 2016, 02:36:27 am
Usually when Military Times has released polls in the past, the results were from within their own subscriber base, which...would almost certainly have a heavily-conservative bent.

Was this an actual scientific poll that surveyed 2,000 likely voters/service-members from the electorate at-large, or did they survey 2,000 likely voters/service-members from within their own ranks?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Celebrity endorsement megathread on: September 22, 2016, 12:58:47 am
Holy s[inks]t. Bradley Whitford got old really quickly. I didn't even realize that was him in the video until I skipped back and heard the voice.

22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Celebrity endorsement megathread on: September 22, 2016, 12:06:53 am
Let's not divert this thread into another ad nauseam "Hollywood is full of godless heathens" thing, let's just take that as a given and move on.

Jeb Exclamation Point
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Seriously? Theatre of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts V on: September 21, 2016, 11:45:24 pm
NC is gone for the Democrats tonight, in my opinion. Better for Clinton to go after GA and AZ. NC is gone. If you think suburban swing voters will put up with the anarchy, you're mistaken.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump may have just won NC for good on: September 21, 2016, 11:15:49 pm

Swing voters may have a say. They're still around. How do you think a middle class family in Durham, N.C. feels tonight?

Hopefully making them think about the systematic racism in our society.

Black police officer shoots a black person = fault of the whiteys?

You don't seem to understand that the core issue is police brutality and uneven treatment; namely, law enforcement's flippancy with taking the lives of young black men and women. At the core of it is racism, yes, but it isn't the two-dimensional form of racism that you and so many others seem to think ("black cop kills black male: no racism there!").

Institutional racism - such as what you find in police departments via racial profiling and a slew of other variables that ensure it's passed down from generation to generation - is just that: institutional. Black LEOs disproportionately target and escalate situations involving black suspects just as much as white LEOs do, and at the root of it is an institutional racism that teaches all LEOs to systematically target people of color as if they're dangerous cretins more so than whites.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: September 21, 2016, 09:57:47 pm
Absentee ballots started going out in Georgia yesterday, according to the data available from SoS. It's a shame that they don't have an option for viewing all of the state's data at once: it's broken down into individual files for each county regardless of how you sort it. No data on race or age in there, either. Sad Here are the mailed absentee totals for the 25 counties with the most requests (60% of state's population):

Quote
COBB   8789
FULTON   8496
DEKALB   6117
GWINNETT   2278
CHATHAM   1877
MUSCOGEE   1604
FORSYTH   1558
BIBB   1428
CHEROKEE   1373
RICHMOND   1323
HENRY   1322
PAULDING   1175
HALL   1052
HOUSTON   940
COLUMBIA   920
CLAYTON   813
FAYETTE   751
LOWNDES   728
RABUN   767
TROUP   752
GLYNN   723
DOUGLAS   691
NEWTON   689
CAMDEN   680
WALTON   631
   
TOTAL   47477
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 421


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines