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August 24, 2016, 07:08:47 am
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1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: JCL 3.0 on: Today at 01:55:44 am
The non-ideological/centrist party cult phenomenon is the biggest threat to the game on a recurring basis. Everything else pales in comparison, including IRC parties and do-nothing representatives. You have never stood up to these threats proactively or reactively in my time here - ever - except when you personally, individually were harmed. Maybe Labor takes a more bold stance when those parties are chomping after us, but your side can't even manage to rise to the occasion when its own existence is being threatened.

First off, nothing in this game can "harm me", because it is just a game. You are putting the cart before the horse again. They didn't come after me for the heck of it, and then I responded after losing. I have been hostile towards the radicals and their objectives in some cases for EIGHT YEARS! I kept them shut out of the Senate routinely and when they weren't, I often managed to block them anyway. That changed when you came on the picture, embraced their ideas for your party and began to facilitate their elections and bids for office in 2013.

https://youtu.be/DJ9K9kpgkzg?t=35s
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: John Oliver makes the Trump bit to end all Trump bits. on: Today at 01:31:21 am
Link has been removed due to copyright claims. Another source?
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: JCL 3.0 on: Today at 01:19:46 am
The non-ideological/centrist party cult phenomenon is the biggest threat to the game on a recurring basis. Everything else pales in comparison, including IRC parties and do-nothing representatives. You have never stood up to these threats proactively or reactively in my time here - ever - except when you personally, individually were harmed. Maybe Labor takes a more bold stance when those parties are chomping after us, but your side can't even manage to rise to the occasion when its own existence is being threatened.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary could be only the 4th person to win all 13 original colonies on: Today at 01:12:27 am
She might win the original Georgia even if she loses the state, depending, but the bigger chunk of North Georgia that'll harm her statewide is probably within the original boundaries.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: JCL 3.0 on: Today at 12:58:02 am
You left the game?

Unlike in late 2013, you have "people" who ensure that whenever you are gone, your worst intincts and desires are advanced.

Until a couple of days ago, I can't remember the last time I even posted on these boards. Early July I suppose? Is it really so hard for you to believe that I was burnt out after two terms as President (and four years in the game), didn't care at all about the game and wasn't following it? My activity levels  during the latter half of my second term should speak to the veracity of my claims.

6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: JCL 3.0 on: Today at 12:51:57 am
You don't give a sh**t about the right. You want them divided, defeated and downsized by an exodus of those sick of leftwing dominance. You got burned the last time you tried to pull that off, but clearly you have learned nothing and forgotten everything and feel sorry for your Party members who likely face the same fate once UA or perhaps some other centrist party inherits the earth NLC style.

You know what? No. You've been rambling and despite my desire to be succinct, you're not going to slide by with that.

You all didn't seem to be all too concerned with that when you were playing enablers to Hamilton's Liberal cult. You all didn't have the gall to stand up to Progressive Union when it seemingly posed a threat. Despite your private concerns about TPP, you guys never had the gall to publicly or privately declare war on them until your precious little Senate seat was snatched away from you. All of those threatened Labor, so you loved it.

Still, though, you didn't have the testicular fortitude to fight back against CR when it emerged and began to poach your office holders and members. And apparently, you don't have the stones to fight back against the UA, which is almost exclusively taking people from your hemisphere as we speak.

Say what you will about my strategies, but the only reason the Federalists have been able to be such appeasers and political opportunists is because you've been the naturally weaker of the two parties throughout almost all of this. It's very unlikely that a wishy-washy right-center party is going to dominate the game, and there's freedom in that for you.

If Labor had responded to the splinter left movements and parties in the same way that you guys have responded to them and your own threats, then the game would already be dominated by a one-party cult. You may think Labor has enabled some of these movements, but Labor is the only reason these movements and parties have also been defeated.

See my sig: you called me Churchill. You're the real Chamberlain.
7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: JCL 3.0 on: Today at 12:36:21 am
Yes, your old tricks including screwing over your own Presidents (especially the best among them) and propping up radicals, crazies and traitors (Because its "part of doing business"), have done wonders for the game. Among such old tricks include desperately trying to fracture and destroy the Federalist Party, despite the fact when your wish almost came to pass you got scared sh**tless by the prospect of an amorphous centrist Party (controlled by above mentioned forces who you helped facilitate I would add) absorbing its voting power and dominating your helpless Labor party.

Genius man, sheer genius.

You don't give a sh**t about the right. You want them divided, defeated and downsized by an exodus of those sick of leftwing dominance. You got burned the last time you tried to pull that off, but clearly you have learned nothing and forgotten everything and feel sorry for your Party members who likely face the same fate once UA or perhaps some other centrist party inherits the earth NLC style.

RIP New Labor. It has clearly been crucified on a Cross of Griffin. Called it, months ago.

I literally came back to the game two days ago. That's a lot of accomplishments - even for me - in 48 hours!

In the Words of Ronald Reagan
Mr Senator North Carolina Yankee, PPT
There you go Again
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The South will rise again. on: August 23, 2016, 04:56:12 pm
So sorry to see you go!

I completely understand the sentiment. When I joined the game, the Lieberal Party was the predominant force in the game (and had been for years; previously known as JCP before dissolution) but was all too willing to give into conservative fantasies and functioned more as a self-serving cult of Napoleon (who turned out to be Hamilton, a right-winger, so no surprise there). Poor Labor was close to half of the left-voting bloc but was completely subservient to their demands and basically fueled their electoral prowess with little to no benefit in return. I said enough was enough and decided to restore the Glorious Left's rightful position among our hemisphere, and unfortunately had to wage a war of attrition against the Lieberals. Unfortunately for them, they did not make it, but Labor was bestowed with its glorious crown as Queen Party of the Left and it hasn't looked back ever since.

You may very well have to follow a similar trajectory in order to be taken seriously by the power-brokers that be.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton address in Reno to focus on Trump's ties to Alt-Right/White Nationalism on: August 23, 2016, 04:04:04 pm
A white person claiming colourblindness is one of the most ignorant, tone deaf, and ridiculously self-congratulatory things I can think of.

A white conservative from the South, no less.  The lack of self-awareness is stunning.

Sounds like virtue signaling imo
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why does Hillary have such a visceral reaction to balloons? on: August 23, 2016, 08:19:14 am
Seriously what is going on

11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: UPDATED: County maps w/ Margins on: August 23, 2016, 07:53:36 am
Here's a national county map:

You really shouldn't bother making a national county-by-county map if you're just going to approximate which counties you're shading with each color; either that or get a blank map template that you can actually make out.

You have Trump winning Fulton and Dekalb County, Georgia...but Clinton winning Cobb, Gwinnett, Forsyth and (northern Fulton County, which is now apparently separate from the rest of Fulton)? Also, again, Richmond County was 67% Obama and is 55% Black: Trump isn't going to win there.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How large of a Clinton win is needed to "send a message?" on: August 23, 2016, 04:47:56 am
The real message will be sent after the election, when the federal government has to start taking out the inevitable rioting, violent Trumpians.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Why does Hillary have such a visceral reaction to balloons? on: August 23, 2016, 04:29:54 am
Another balloon drop on Jimmy Kimmel last night. What is going on?

14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: JCL 3.0 on: August 23, 2016, 02:15:37 am
Another election, another JCL bid thrown under the bus by the Federalists. Sad!

Don't start that bullsh@$t again.

Unlike Labor, who are all minions for your bidding voting wise, we have defined sections that we strive to ensure are adequately represented by our candidates. This reduces flexibility a great deal, but at least we strive to represent the electorate as the House should indeed, represent the people. 

JCL is a superb representative of the conservatarian movement in Atlasia and thus those voters, but that necessarily limits his base obviously and he found himself competing with three other candidates for the same votes.


As is typical, whenever Adam loses his favorite Texas pawn, he moves on to try and prey viciously on JCL and get him to do his bidding. This isn't 2013 and one thing is clear, Adam is an old dog who seems to prefer old tricks. This one won't hunt anymore, because no one should be foolish enough to think the one who mosts desires their failure, would do anything but work to ensure it and have such in mind with everything he does.

You seem very defensive over something that you say isn't going to work. If you'd put half the energy into GOTV as you do into writing those long-winded tirades, JCL would be heading to the House. Sad!

I wish Ben Kenobi and JCL the best of luck with their new party, though.

And my old tricks are the best tricks: that's how they got to be old in the first place! They certainly worked this weekend, didn't they?
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: JCL 3.0 on: August 23, 2016, 01:05:10 am
Another election, another JCL bid thrown under the bus by the Federalists. Sad!
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AK-Alaska Dispatch News/Ivan Moore: Trump+9, Johnson @ 16% support on: August 23, 2016, 12:45:25 am
Johnson is really hurting Trump in this state.

Not necessarily. Obama only lost by 14 in 2012 and if the race is where the polls have been showing it nationally, then it's basically right on the money.



Alaska is the only state to swing Democratic in the past three elections (Bush won by 31 in 2000, 26 in 2004; McCain won by 22 in 2008 and Romney by 14 in 2012), so seeing it swing for election #4 would be a real treat. I think the state is a sleeper.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If Clinton wins and the Dems regain the House and the Senate... on: August 22, 2016, 08:17:05 pm
If Dems retake the Senate, they'll do it by defeating most of the Republicans that are willing to work across the aisle... so I don't really see where the 60 votes would come from unless their majority is much larger than anyone is predicting.

Assuming it's doable - since I keep hearing about the option - by changing cloture rules on the first day of the new session, which hopefully will happen. Democrats (and presumably, primarily, Reid) wetting their pants over the notion that the GOP might have unilateral control of government some day - and thereby refusing to change cloture rules - is the biggest single factor behind the gridlock for all but the past two years. I have no doubt that the GOP would do the same and will do the same the very first day that they have control of both chambers and the Presidency.
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Wikileaks Atlasia on: August 22, 2016, 12:42:24 am
If you were as witty as I, then you'd call this "Atleaksia"

*At one point I planned to dump years of Atlasia-related IRC logs onto the forum as a "final solution"/MAD/burn the village event and was going to call it Atleaksia but never did
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2016 House of Representative Elections on: August 21, 2016, 11:48:20 pm
1. Evergreen
2. 1184AZ
3. Peebs
4. Clyde1998
5. NeverAgain
6. Shua
7. Talleyrand
8. ClarkKent
9. Santander
10. dfwlibertylover
11. Classic Conservative
12. Abraham Washington
13. JCL
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FOX5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy GA Poll: HRC 43/Trump 43 on: August 21, 2016, 06:51:03 pm
^^^ Actually, I forgot to include the non-white, non-black voters in my proportioning there. The electorate is closer to 60/40 than 67/33, so that line should be a tad bit further up. That means the scenario would be more like 48.5 to 49.5% of the vote instead of 49 to 50%.

EDIT: It's also worth noting that all of those scenarios on the sheet above assumed 1% of the vote goes to third parties. I mean, I made it in 2013...Tongue
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FOX5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy GA Poll: HRC 43/Trump 43 on: August 21, 2016, 06:47:35 pm
So basically if Clinton can garner 23% of the White vote in a 4 person race, or even further 25% GA will likely flip?

Assuming the vote for Johnson is large enough (Stein will not be on the ballot in GA), then yes: that could work.

What may be more likely (assuming Johnson doesn't get more than 1% or so) is that she'll need 23% of whites (2008 Obama) + 86% among non-whites (2012 Obama) to be in contention...and even then it's no guarantee.

Unfortunately, I did not put more combinations in the spreadsheet; the combinations that exist among white/non-white levels of support tend to increase/decrease at roughly the same amounts up and down the sheet. So, for instance, there isn't a scenario on there were Clinton gets 23% of whites (2008 Obama) and 86% of non-whites (2012 Obama).

However, that parallel increase/decrease between support scenarios does make it possible to roughly, basically, physically 'average' the distance between two support scenarios up there (remembering that whites are roughly twice as numerous as blacks) to get an idea of where her share of the vote would be. So, for instance, if we take Obama 08 white support and Obama 12 non-white support, and we know that whites are roughly twice as numerous as blacks, then we'd plot that point (twice as close to  the relevant white scenario as the non-white scenario) and draw a line over to the white/non-white electorate we're expecting, and:



Somewhere between 49-50% of the vote in that case.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FOX5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy GA Poll: HRC 43/Trump 43 on: August 21, 2016, 05:16:22 pm
^^^ I made this back in 2013 to show what percentage of the white and (combined non-white) shares of the vote would be needed to generate a specific result in GA. There are 99 scenarios here. The 2008 scenario is highlighted in green; the 2012 scenario in orange.

The 2016 GA electorate will likely be 58-59% white.

As you can see, a performance by Clinton equivalent to 2008 (23% of whites & 89% of non-whites) would give her between 50-51% of the vote; a fairly comfortable victory.

A performance equivalent to 2012 (20% of whites & 86% of non-whites) would give her between 47-48% of the vote.

I did it as a combined non-white number just because it was too complicated to do on a spreadsheet with three or four variables as opposed to two. Basically, in 2008 and 2012, those "other" non-white voters combined were around 55-60% Obama.

So, Clinton would need to do better with Latino voters (who in all likelihood are more of that "Other" than 2% or whatever; they disproportionately have registered in the past few years and SoS no longer mandates that race be specified in voter registration applications) by several points. She would also need to do at least as well as Obama did with black voters in 2012 and she'd need 2008 numbers among whites to win.
Quote
59% White, 31% Black, 10% Other

White: 59 * 0.23 D = 13.57
Black: 31 * 0.95 D = 29.45
Other: 10 * 0.65 D = 6.00

Total = 49.52% D

23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: UPDATED: County maps w/ Margins on: August 21, 2016, 05:13:45 am
GA:

Trump: 52%
Clinton: 47%
Johnson: 1%


You have Richmond County (67% Obama) as a Trump win. Also, there's no way given the rate of demographic change and the margin you're projecting that Clinton doesn't win Henry County. Both Carter and Nunn managed to flip Henry in 2014 despite Obama losing it by 3 in 2012. Clinton will win it by at least that much.
24  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Petition to sternly lecture Spark498 about creating so many threads on: August 20, 2016, 01:36:51 am
In all fairness a lecture about oversized really annoying signatures is probably what this forum needs.  I'm not going to start a thread about it.  I'm jus' sayin'.

25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: White Vote State by State Ratings on: August 20, 2016, 01:32:15 am
Don't forget about my beautiful 2012 white vote maps by county and state.

2012



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