Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 21, 2014, 11:39:49 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 255
1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Midwest Governor LeBron FitzGerald (Signing Worker & Growth Amendment) on: Today at 12:28:01 am
The notion that the Midwest isn't an inherently-Laborite region flies out the window when considering that TNF is a five-term Senator of the region.

2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: December 18, 2014, 07:51:37 am
^ I know that Deal being from Gainesville probably helped Nunn perform better in those northeastern CD9 counties, but how much of an impact do you think Zell Miller had there for Nunn?

In Deal's "home base" of counties, it seemed like a mix-bag in terms of Carter/Nunn doing better than the other. Hall County actually swung to Carter, fwiw. Every single county in NE that swung hard to Deal in 2010 except for one (Habersham) saw Carter lead Nunn this time around, and a majority of them actually swung to Carter this time. These are the counties closer to the SC border than the NC one, by the way.

Ol' Zig-Zag's influence in his immediate backyard (the counties that border NC and his home of Towns County: Union, White, Rabun) is strong to this day. Most of the area rebounded pretty well for Nunn and actually swung to Deal, so take it for what it's worth: Deal's actual backyard swung away from him. In fact, this little area of Zell's was the only group of counties in the northern half of the state that showed distinctly-opposing swings (practically everywhere else either swung D in both cases or R in both cases). I'd say it definitely helped both Nunn & Deal.
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Papal Patch (some clarification if you even bother) on: December 18, 2014, 07:38:38 am
Artist's rendering of one segment of the Papal Patch:



Hypothetical game map:

4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Cris Survey - Papal Patch. on: December 18, 2014, 12:39:06 am
Yes/No/Yes




Yes/Yes/Yes


5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: December 18, 2014, 12:37:42 am
Here it is at the county level:

6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: December 17, 2014, 11:05:54 pm


In many CDs, they were within a few decimals of eachother, but Adam, check out CD14! Carter did almost 6% better!

Congrats, me! Tongue In all honesty, I think there are a few reasons why this happened. I'll be the first to say that as a coordinator in the CD, there was a lot more enthusiasm from the base for Carter than Nunn. On multiple occasions, Nunn bailed on visits to the area and her team was very elusive at times. Carter is a genuinely open person, could remember people's names, visited several areas in the district multiple times (including our headline fundraiser that Nunn skipped) and was running ads in the Chatt media market two months before Nunn started (when early voting began).

A lot of volunteers didn't have much desire to proactively promote Nunn. A lot of the activist base up here even voted for primary opponents like Dr. Rad in the primary (in my own county, the active county committee went like 90% Dr. Rad, because he was progressive and actually took the time to visit with us and give real answers; Nunn cancelled on us twice during that time period). Plenty of people (including myself) viewed her as being way too opportunistic and generic; she didn't stand for anything, wouldn't take a solid position on most issues and like I said, kept giving us the cold shoulder up here. I heard plenty of my phone bankers basically skip over the questions about Nunn during their calls (to be fair, asking 5-6 questions to a complete stranger is hard to do and keep it flowing; volunteers tend to skip the questions at the end or the questions they feel are "less substantial"). This led to a lot more responses on how people felt about Carter than Nunn.

I would have said that the overall performance (outside the volunteer base) had something to do with gender, but the 9th and 12th are just as backwards - if not more so - than the 14th and she did better than Carter there. I'd also speculate the the Libertarian performance and the difference in candidate quality between Hunt and Swafford might have played a small role somehow, too (GA-14 is usually the most Libertarian area of the state).

I think Carter's efforts here paid off and in conjunction with the work I and many others did, we moved the 14th considerably for him given the nature of the terrain. In fact, my county swung more to Carter when compared to 2010 than any other in the state, and several of the other biggest swingers were up in NW GA, too; we added over 700 votes to his column despite turnout dropping countywide by 400 votes when compared to 2010. I'm pretty sure I posted this before, but here's my own map by county for Gov and Sen showing DPI/RPI increase (it's not technically a swing map since it just measures which party increased its share of the vote and by how much; it also compares Nunn to Thurmond in 2010 and not to Martin in 2008; I think that's a more accurate way to do it, anyway):



Can we just make him the national democratic outreach person please. It's obvious he's doing far better than those involved today.

Carter?
7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Zero In: December Election Tracker on: December 17, 2014, 04:04:02 am
Your numbers need work Griffin.

I have 62% Federalist Turnout.

I missed Maistre's vote when marking voters, somehow missed 3 when plugging in the formula and had you guys down as 41 instead of 42 (which would actually make the numbers look better). Still, I'm not sure how you're getting 62% from your own numbers:

24/42 = 57.14%

8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: December 2014 At-Large Senate Election: Winner/Loser on: December 16, 2014, 11:34:35 pm
I think you have my S score and my E score mixed up, but huh. Interesting.

That I do - fixed.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: December 2014 At-Large Senate Election: Winner/Loser on: December 16, 2014, 11:31:06 pm
Also, I'm flattered at all the commentary about my "turnout machine" and perceived involvement, but it's really just not the case. While I did contact a few close friends to vote who I thought might not otherwise do so and did try to run the numbers on the final day to see where things were, the real heavy-lifting was done by several others. Perhaps it'd be fair to say that the machine I built in the past was and is still well-oiled and operational, but it takes the work of others now to keep it that way.
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: December 2014 At-Large Senate Election: Winner/Loser on: December 16, 2014, 11:28:33 pm
What's all this rubbish about TPP being a "left-wing" party?

As I said, if you have to characterize TPP, it's more of a leftist party than a right wing party.

It's a centrist party. Easy as that.

Actually...

11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 1 out of 5 Republicans Agree: Rectally feeding suspected terrorists is a-ok! on: December 16, 2014, 08:11:52 am
What nice humane people live in America. Good job "Christians".

Being an American Christian™ and supporting the use of torture if neccessary are not mutually exclusive.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama: 37-yr old Surgeon General has "lifetime of experience" in public health on: December 16, 2014, 05:37:41 am
You get what everyone else gets: you get a lifetime
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Seriously, who here writes for The Onion? on: December 16, 2014, 04:31:01 am
Later attempts to monetize the project through covert means were more successful; the most successful avenue (and perhaps most referred to on the forum, oddly enough) is the sourcing of the Update concept and material to satire publications such as The Onion.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: 1 out of 5 Republicans Agree: Rectally feeding suspected terrorists is a-ok! on: December 16, 2014, 01:53:22 am
The prudish and sadistic nature of Republicans becomes evident when more of them are opposed to "forced nudity" than tricking human beings' brains and bodies into thinking that they're drowning.
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Türkisblau - Election Results! on: December 15, 2014, 05:07:52 am
Congratulations!
16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Barnes - NE Representative on: December 15, 2014, 05:07:25 am
Congratulations!
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Midwest Archduke Cris - POLLS ARE OPEN ON AN IMPORTANT AMENDMENT. on: December 15, 2014, 05:04:56 am
Congratulations!
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Senator Polnut - Awaiting the results on: December 15, 2014, 05:04:35 am
Congratulations!
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: BK4Senate Campaign Thread [VICTORY] on: December 15, 2014, 05:04:06 am
Congratulations!
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Zero In: December Election Tracker on: December 15, 2014, 04:57:09 am
Three fun sets of figures (aka "How the Federalists Blew It and TPP Managed to Squeeze Out a Second Seat"):



It should be noted that depending on your interpretation of "turnout", TPP may have had 90% turnout (if you subtract Cinci's vote due to it being invalid because of activity) or 95% turnout (as calculated above).

Other fun fact: the Liberal Party still does in fact exist (3 members) and it had 100% turnout in this election (!!!).
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Opinion of the rainbow sponge on: December 15, 2014, 03:04:26 am
Watch all 2 minutes, for your health (gets really good around 0:30)
22  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of NE Speaker SWE - SWE for Senate! (Economic Platform Unveiled) on: December 15, 2014, 02:09:44 am




Congratulations!
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The Office of Former President Lief on: December 15, 2014, 02:08:20 am
Congratulations!
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Labor Party Standing Committee on: December 15, 2014, 01:55:33 am

25% of the country
50% of the Senate

Carry on, you sweet, sweet Laborites
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Zero In: December Election Tracker on: December 15, 2014, 01:12:45 am
That isn't the red of socialist flags you are seeing but the blood of the inactive Federalists I just slaughtered and had vampirized.

There were certainly a lot of interesting currents flowing in this election, and I think it's hard to blame any one element (but yes, Federalists had a metric f[inks]-ton of no-shows; 40% of all no-shows in the election from a party that comprises 25% of the country).

There was also the dynamic of SWE not doing a good job of carrying the non-absolutists in Labor (probably to do with campaigning or the lack thereof). Some other candidates, however, didn't campaign, either. Bacon King and Polnut alike would have had a field day sniping Laborites in this scenario (similar to what occurred in August), but Lief was there to pull a lot of the voters they probably thought they locked down from other parties and from the independent bloc into his column.

I didn't bother even trying to count voters until a few hours before the election. I tried to use this last report (from 4:30 PM ET) as a baseline, and going into the end of the election, I showed something like this (can't remember if I updated it fully):

SWE - 20
Lief - 19
JCL - 19
Bacon King - 19
Cris - 18
Polnut - 17

Polnut was the one that appeared to be the lowest, but no one else seemed to show this scenario when we compared numbers after the booth closed. On one hand, I just assumed (all along) that my numbers were going to be off and were likely wrong. On the other hand, I thought it all made sense; I figured Yankee was voting for Cris because he was the most in danger, and I figured Cinci voted for BK because TPP thought Polnut was already too far gone.

Well crap, I thought Polnut was safe..

I thought the same thing back in March, and we all know what happened...

Fun times!
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 255


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines