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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Adam Griffin on: May 24, 2016, 10:40:00 pm






2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: May 24, 2016, 06:44:04 pm
PRIMARY TIME

Currently, Isakson is leading with 81% in his primary

Barksdale barely has a majority, 50%, against a no-name challenger Cheryl Copeland, who has 43%
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's best state in the South on: May 24, 2016, 05:33:13 pm
Depending on any drop-offs in black support (or even turnout, possibly), AL is probably going to be the worst. AR will have a bit of a dead cat bounce, LA actually swung Democratic in 2012 (and has enough leeway I think to not be affected in the same potential way as AL), and as far as TN goes...I just feel like the white vote there is pretty much maxed out (it has a larger than average black population just like LA & AL, but nowhere nearly as large).

AL>AR>TN>LA : I don't think the rankings change.
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Swearing in of New Officeholders on: May 24, 2016, 05:21:23 pm
I, North Carolina Yankee, do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the office of Supreme, Almighty, All-Knowing, All Seeing, Southern Judicial Overlord and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia, so help me Dave.


homage to the Legendary John Dibble!!!

Is this whole thing actually allowed? AFAIK, the Constitution only makes provisions for the existing Justices to be handled within the confines of the old game. I don't think the old game can elect a brand new Justice to fill one of the slots in the new game.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: May 2016 Regional Committee Elections on: May 24, 2016, 05:06:25 pm
[1] Southern Gothic
[2] Adam Griffin
[3] NeverAgain
[4] Tmth
[5] Leinad
[6] North Carolina Yankee
[7] Leinad
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Tie! Tie! Tie! on: May 24, 2016, 03:45:25 pm
The sample is too Democratic, it has Obama and Romney tied 46-46 when Romney won 50-48. Wonder what would happen if the sample went to 50-48.

Since their poll only appears to be asking people who voted in 2012, then it's actually spot-on assuming that they want to use said sample in conjunction with a demographically-accurate 2016 electorate. Natural demographic shifts in NC alone would account for that shift:

Quote
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Clinton crushes Trump among Asians on: May 24, 2016, 03:36:52 pm
I think there's probably a big difference in Koreans say in GA vs Koreans in CA...

I looked at early voting for the 2016 primary, it seems like 50-60% of Koreans voted in the D primary, whereas for California, it's probably more like 75%.

Exactly. It almost seems as if Asians take on the predominant philosophy of the states/communities in which they live. I dug into the party's voter file for some of the northern CDs in Georgia (14, 9, 11, 6) and the scoring models suggested that the Asian vote was anywhere from 60-70% Republican, depending on the congressional district. I'm not sure what specific nationalities exist from place to place, but outside of the metro/to the north, the most common Asians are Indians and Vietnamese, so it makes sense.



The untold story here really is the extent to which the Asian vote is shifting alongside the Latino vote. It has moved and appears to be moving just as much (if not more so) as the Latino vote over the past 8 years and in advance of this election.

Group200420082012Change '04-'12
LatinoD+9D+36D+45D+36
AsianD+13D+27D+47D+34
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Millennials More Likely to Live with Their Parents Than Previous Generations on: May 24, 2016, 02:39:09 pm
#PluralityFTW
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump harness French-Canadian lumberjacks to win Maine (or at least ME-02?) on: May 24, 2016, 02:34:59 pm
Maine sort of bucks the trend in a lot of ways; I've always wondered why it seems to vote Democratic more often than not given some of its unusual characteristics.

For starters, it's the poorest state in the NE in terms of median household income; barely better off than KY and in the bottom 7 nationally.

10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/SurveyMonkey national poll: Clinton 47% Trump 43% on: May 24, 2016, 10:16:52 am
Women: Clinton 54, Trump 36
Men: Trump 51, Clinton 41

White: Trump 52, Clinton 38
Black: Clinton 88, Trump 6
Latino: Clinton 63, Trump 29

(extracted the numbers my measuring pixels and proportioning them based on y axis)
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump gop unity on: May 24, 2016, 07:48:05 am
The best poll thus far for Trump shows 13% or so of the GOP still not behind him, which is twice as high as it needs to be for things to be "normal".

I've been saying for awhile that I don't expect the GOP to be fractured come Election Day: they are still very much the party of "get in line"...even if one or more factions are prone every cycle to pitch a bloody fit and/or burn segments of the party down. The Chris McDaniel/Thad Cochran episode is probably the best recent example, and the mainliners are going to do the same thing as the Tea Party types in this circumstance. Look at how quickly all of this public fuss has faded and how difficult of a time the #NeverTrumpeteers are having finding any viable opposition. They're not going to stay home, they're not going to vote Democratic and they're not going to vote third-party.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: if TRUMP gets similar Minorities% at GE as SurveyUSA CA Poll(5/19-5/22) on: May 23, 2016, 10:18:01 pm
You should proportion the undecideds based on what the decided groups have done, rather than leaving them out and/or assuming they're going to vote third party.

The two way model of this:

13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: The demise of the Pacific: an explanation on: May 23, 2016, 09:45:26 pm
At the end of the day, it looks like we all got what we wanted!

Cannot imagine that having anything to do with the success achieved now compared to the failure last time against a backdrop of hostage taking. Wink

Also my lengthy post above, should be required reading for anyone desiring the truth not peddled by radcalist propaganda machine. Tongue

History is written by those who are concise, Yankee!
14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Department of Federal Elections: Rpryor03, SOFE on: May 23, 2016, 09:43:14 pm
Yeah, it appears that when I did my second count, I forgot to include the people who had registered between May 2 and May 16. My bad.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Do you support the Dem's super delegate system the way it is? on: May 23, 2016, 09:31:00 pm
No. It's never actually been used to alter the outcome, only serves to stoke resentment against the party itself, and any legitimate need for such a system (major scandal, death, etc) can be replaced by provisions that allow a large segment of pledged delegates (60% or 2/3s) to overturn their bound commitments in the event of a damaged candidate who happens to be the presumptive nominee.
16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Department of Federal Elections: Rpryor03, SOFE on: May 23, 2016, 09:27:47 pm
Hmm, you're counting 10 more people in the game than I did, and I thought I was very sure to include people who have recently registered. My count was done a few days ago, but I had:

37 - Western
39 - Southern   
45 - Northeastern

For a total of 121 people. It's possible I missed someone(s) or a state.
I can PM you my spreadsheet if you want me to, this is including all new registers including evergreen, what day did you calculate these numbers

Edit: I notice the last official update showed 121 people, that does not include any new registers from May 9th onward which I have added to the roll, we have also had no more deregister since the last update.

I could have sworn that I added in the people from May 1 until about May 15 or so (when I made my thread outlining the schedule), but perhaps I forgot them (I did two counts). I'd like to see the sheet, yes.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-23: Sanders endorses Canova on: May 23, 2016, 09:21:51 pm
She represents the 11th most Jewish congressional district in the country: she isn't going to lose (of the top 15 most Jewish CDs in the country, 10 are represented by Jews). It also wouldn't surprise me if her district has one of the oldest median ages in the country as well. Combine that with the relative wealth and rightward economic tilt of non-white Democrats in the area and the outcome speaks for itself.
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Department of Federal Elections: Rpryor03, SOFE on: May 23, 2016, 08:54:19 pm
Hmm, you're counting 10 more people in the game than I did, and I thought I was very sure to include people who have recently registered. My count was done a few days ago, but I had:

37 - Western
39 - Southern   
45 - Northeastern

For a total of 121 people. It's possible I missed someone(s) or a state.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2012-2016 National Trend Map? on: May 23, 2016, 07:56:13 pm
Is this what you're predicting?

20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Department of Federal Elections: Rpryor03, SOFE on: May 23, 2016, 07:47:12 pm
I had done the math prior and came up with 6 seats for the NE and 5 for the other two. Did something change and/or where did the new numbers originate?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump will pick.......... on: May 23, 2016, 06:53:56 pm
Wrong.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA - Roanoke College: Clinton - 38 Trump - 38 on: May 23, 2016, 06:43:22 pm
Virginia's margin will be as large or larger than Wisconsin's in this election. It is the fastest trending state in the country in terms of a) actual vote share and b) the demographics moving into it actually translating into present/future votes (white D-leaners, upscale Asian D-leaners, blacks, etc). Trump ain't winning it unless he's ahead by 3 or more nationally.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who Takes Over The Trump Organization if Donald Wins? on: May 23, 2016, 04:44:28 am
Definitely not Little Don.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Lindsey Graham becomes #EventuallyTrump on: May 23, 2016, 03:08:48 am
He was always too much of a bloodthirsty old queen to resist Trump's militant charm!
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: The White House: Griffin/Duke Administration on: May 22, 2016, 11:42:42 pm
Quote from: GRIFF-019
Rpryor03 is appointed as Temporary Elections Officer.

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