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1  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: RISK Domination XI: Round 10 (Matt from VT) on: Today at 04:40:48 am
It's over anyway.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: Today at 04:18:12 am
No Pharrell Williams effect apparently. Sad

It would be pretty embarrassing if a foreign singer with no particular political background or insight could sway a notable portion of the Swedish electorate tbh

Well he wasn't the only one, ABBA Benny spent a fortune on the party as well. Tongue

It would be particularly embarrassing if using an explicitly anti-feminist artist benefited a feminist party. Tongue

This thread is getting way too sage for its own good.

What do you expect? Its a Sweden thread without any Swedes to give us some proper analysis (most of them are probably drowning their sorrows, Gustaf might actually be celebrating). Idle speculation, sagery and rhetorical grand standing is bound to fill the void.

Why would I be celebrating?

---------------------------

An interesting thing to note is that the Swedish electorate has been getting increasingly ideologically polarized over time. Also, I think SD is far from unlikely to topple the government. It will be an interesting 4 years ahead now.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 13, 2014, 08:10:44 am
Yeah, my bet would be that Red-Green-Pink doesn't get a majority even with F! in parliament. Although it's obviously a close call. It's a bit ridiculous if the media puts F! in though. They're only close to getting in because people are voting for them to get a Red-Green majority. And that is only happening because the media spin has made it seem like they're getting when they really weren't close. Tongue

Yeah, I agree on that. Btw, do you think there's any chance that Reinfeldt attempts to stay on as PM, if the result is what we expect?

Not really. Apart from the fact that he explicitly stated that he'd resign the numbers wouldn't really be there. He might try to topple the budget which could pave the way for a return though!
 
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 13, 2014, 06:36:43 am
Yeah, my bet would be that Red-Green-Pink doesn't get a majority even with F! in parliament. Although it's obviously a close call. It's a bit ridiculous if the media puts F! in though. They're only close to getting in because people are voting for them to get a Red-Green majority. And that is only happening because the media spin has made it seem like they're getting when they really weren't close. Tongue
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 11, 2014, 06:56:10 am
The Social Democrats blame their bad poll numbers on people watching football. Lol. Roll Eyes

http://www.dn.se/valet-2014/zlatan-bakom-daliga-s-siffror/

(I know, I'm being a little unfair to the poor guys...)
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 10, 2014, 04:37:47 pm
New SIFO poll shows increasing gap though. I think the Left is getting away with this election after all.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 10, 2014, 05:16:08 am
New Novus poll, gap goes down to 3.6%...

M 21,8 (-0,6)
FP 7,7 (+1,2)
C 7,1 (+0,2)
KD 5,0 (-0,5)
S 29,8 (-0,8)
V 6,5 (-0,6)
MP 8,9 (+0,3)
SD 8,1 (-1,4)
FI 3,4 (+1,2)
M+FP+C+KD 41,6 (+0,3)
S+V+MP 45,2 (-1,1)

Game on. Also note that F!'s campaign is becoming a nailbiter. They're telling voters that they need to vote for them to get them over 4% and ensure a Red-Green government. If that works, good for the left. But it it fails and only brings F! to 3.5% or something...not so good.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 10, 2014, 02:38:39 am
The big if is whether there is sustained momentum. Tayya is being way too pessimistic though. I'd rate the Alliance's chances of actually catching up much lower.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 09, 2014, 08:29:21 am
The most likely scenario is:

"Well, I don't really like the current center-right government, but the economy isn't actually doing so badly and there's an election coming up where my vote actually counts (other than in some poll) and I'm not wasting it on the Left."

A probable explanation, yes. Unfortunately, 51% of people doing well tends to be enough in a wallet voter system.

Pretty sure far more than 51% of Swedes are doing well.

My point is that a majority voting with their wallets isn't necessarily what a country needs, but sure.

@Gustav: Oh, I'm doing fine. My parents get a lot more cash to use thanks to income tax cuts, I'm healthy (excepting my cold I'm having), I'm renting a room that I can afford thanks to generous student benefits and loans and I can always go home to my parents.

But I'm afraid to death I'm never going to get a real job, 9-5; that I won't afford a house, and that there's no houses to live in. Meanwhile, tax money's going to crooks and robber barons (even if their actual negative effect on welfare quality is overstated) and our education system and our defense forces are still getting murdered like if they were dissenters and ISIS were in charge. No, the reds were just as useless, but these bums need to be kicked out and get back to reality. It's just time for them to go.

And I'm white, I'm a dude, I'm from a relatively wealthy household, I'm a lone child... what about the people who aren't?

I'm not exactly content with the opposition, but the Alliance wasn't exactly perfect in the beginning. And if they never start, they'll never learn and we'll get stuck with a government that, fundamentally, represents things I find awful, sometimes distasteful - yes, sometimes even hateful.

And I'm just so, so tired of this sh*t.

Well, that's fair, but then it's more of a political opinion.

Let's not turn this into a political debate, but I would like to note that a government including MP or maybe even F! will probably be very effective in dismantling our armed forces. Tongue
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 09, 2014, 05:54:29 am
Real income has gone up for basically everyone. Definitely for everyone with a job.

Tayya, I get that you may think Sweden does worse, that's fine. I obviously think Sweden will do worse if we get the left in, but given the tiny differences between the blocs I don't really see much impact on most of my life, nor on anyone else's. And, again, my hope is just for some fun chaos in parliament so I'm not really talking about the current government staying on.

As for why this is happening, I think it may be partly that people are realizing that the opposition isn't really a superior alternative even if the government is not to their liking. A lot of the low polling earlier was discontented Alliance voters saying they wouldn't vote or were unsure of whom to vote for. I'm guessing they're coming back. Also the Red-Green has not done great in the debates I think.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 09, 2014, 02:02:06 am
I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.



How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

For one, OMX wouldn't be happy which affects growth. (Then again, they won't cheer on a red-green majority either). The chance of tax cuts and tax non-increases also increases. Not to mention that SD would have a theoretical opportunity to mess stuff up badly.

Neither side is campaigning on tax cuts. Well, ok, the Social Democrats are pledging to cut taxes for seniors. But beyond that.

But how would "not raising taxes" affect you so badly? Given that there is basically no difference between the two sides I don't see how anyone could be massively hurt by any outcome?

I don't give a duck about what they promise now - an Alliance.victory means that the robber barons will keep reigning freely and that the rich will, in the end, get richer at the poors' back.

Re: United Minds: Told you so. God ducking pigheads in the opposition and duck you to all hipster idiots. I'm giving them SO MUCH HELL when this election is over.

The poor have not been getting poorer under this government though. And the last few elections do indicate that they will rule basically as they say they will.

Besides, we weren't talking about reelecting the government, something I still don't see happening, but about there being some fun chaos in government. Since the Social Democrats basically pledge to not change anything major in current policy I can't see how some chaos would be much different.

Also, this campaign is entertaining in a meta way at this point. Cheesy
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 08, 2014, 05:21:09 pm
Also, the Novus poll is hilarious. Probability that the opposition lead has actually been cut in half is now something like 75% IMO.

They'll still almost certainly get more votes than the Alliance but the ineptitude is hilarious.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 08, 2014, 04:47:29 pm
I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.



How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.

For one, OMX wouldn't be happy which affects growth. (Then again, they won't cheer on a red-green majority either). The chance of tax cuts and tax non-increases also increases. Not to mention that SD would have a theoretical opportunity to mess stuff up badly.

Neither side is campaigning on tax cuts. Well, ok, the Social Democrats are pledging to cut taxes for seniors. But beyond that.

But how would "not raising taxes" affect you so badly? Given that there is basically no difference between the two sides I don't see how anyone could be massively hurt by any outcome?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 07, 2014, 05:00:11 pm
I trust SIFO too, for the record, but they're definitely still capable of outliers, and Occam's razor would indicate that it's an outlier pending further confirmation.

Your way of thinking suggests that you will not be affected negatively by chaos. Personally, I predict that I will indeed be affected, so I'd rather not.

For what it's worth, there was also a 3-day YouGov poll showing a 9.5% bloc gap taken in early September.



How would it affect you negatively?

Ethelberth, many SD voters are kind of in their own bubble, far from any other choice. But I suspect most of them would have M, then S. Then the other Alliance parties.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 07, 2014, 03:40:33 am
From what I understood the SIFO poll is more recent than the others (even though they were published aruond the same time, SIFO encompasses more recent days when the debates happened and the others don't).

Secondly, SIFO is historically the best institute. Demoskop has historically been pretty bad and Novus and Ipsos are very recent additions to Swedish polling.

Nice concern trolling. Cheesy

Both SKOP and United Minds (I know...) covered the same period (SKOP a bit earlier as well) and show the gap at ~10%.

Ipsos is a continuation of Synovate which was formerly TEMO, and Novus is an incarnate of what was once the Swedish department of Gallup (and was also the closest poll in the EP elections).

SKOP is not really comparable to SIFO. The SKOP poll was done 21 Aug-4 Sep. The SIFO poll, 1 Sep-4 Sep. Not sure how the SKOP interviews were distributed, but if opinion moved in the last week it wouldn't catch most of that. The United Minds one is 31 Aug to 5 Sep so that one is comparable. But then, if given the choice between United Minds and SIFO I'd be more inclined to trust SIFO I suppose. The interesting thing will be whether the next slew of polls indicate any movement or if SIFO did a screwup.

Fingers crossed for chaos!
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 06, 2014, 09:31:56 pm
From what I understood the SIFO poll is more recent than the others (even though they were published aruond the same time, SIFO encompasses more recent days when the debates happened and the others don't).

Secondly, SIFO is historically the best institute. Demoskop has historically been pretty bad and Novus and Ipsos are very recent additions to Swedish polling.

Nice concern trolling. Cheesy

Both SKOP and United Minds (I know...) covered the same period (SKOP a bit earlier as well) and show the gap at ~10%.

Ipsos is a continuation of Synovate which was formerly TEMO, and Novus is an incarnate of what was once the Swedish department of Gallup (and was also the closest poll in the EP elections).

Note, that I said from what I understood. I've seen several people claim this thing about the timing and haven't seen the dates myself. If you have the dates I'd be very interested to see them.

TEMO was good, although the guy that took over there always struck me as a buffoon compared to the predecessor. I think he is at Novus now? Gallup was awful back in the day, as I recall.

I'm not particularly committed in this election, beyond a desire for chaos, but SIFO has always been the institute I trust the most so I'd take a poll by them seriously. If no one else catches on, it'd be time to reevaluate that though.
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Jennifer Lawrence and many other celebrities... on: September 06, 2014, 05:54:37 am
A " weird midsection"... " bit boxy"... "on her way to having weight problems"... what is wrong with you people? Perhaps this is the sexist patriarchy the angry people are always going on about.

Dudes discussing women in a male-dominated environment is sexist now?  I thought it was a normal thing guys just do.  Women discuss the physical attractiveness of men all the time!  And didn't I say she had killer t1ts and a beautiful face?

Sentence 1: No, you didn't get it
Sentence 2: lol
Sentence 3: you're still not getting it
Sentence 4: wow, didn't know it was possible to miss the point THIS much. And why self-censor tits? I have no speech.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Swedish artist sentenced for 'racist' art on: September 06, 2014, 05:37:52 am
Yeah, pretty embarrassing for Sweden. Sad

A black friend of mine was really offended when her white male friend told her she couldn't be racist due to her skin colour, mansplaining to her that she didn't understand how racism works.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 06, 2014, 04:11:50 am
From what I understood the SIFO poll is more recent than the others (even though they were published aruond the same time, SIFO encompasses more recent days when the debates happened and the others don't).

Secondly, SIFO is historically the best institute. Demoskop has historically been pretty bad and Novus and Ipsos are very recent additions to Swedish polling.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you be disappointed if your daughter was dating the previous poster? on: September 04, 2014, 01:54:19 pm
I know quite a few Swedes, and I'm pretty sure they are part of a chop-shop ring Tongue. Sorry Gustaf, just got to play it safe.

That's ok, I'd also be disappointed in my daughter if she dated me.

(I only responded to this thread so I could use that line).

But answer is still yes to whoever went before me.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD on: September 04, 2014, 08:54:53 am
This is a pretty cool graph. It clusters candidates from the different parties based on their responses to election compasses.

http://val2014.silobreaker.se/
22  General Politics / Economics / Re: Germany posts record budget surplus in 1st half of 2014 on: September 03, 2014, 05:41:46 pm
@Landslide Lyndon

I don't mind to be corrected, if i'm wrong. But I fear, that your facts need some straightening. I never talked of policies among the mediteranian countries. I meant the individual policies of france, italy, spain, etc. they all spent (and spend) too much.  This is perverting John Maynard Keynes.

As I see your avatar, my wife has greek parents. So i know a little something about the state of things in Greece. I admire what has been achieved in Greece, but France and Italy will have to go the same way.

And you still don't know what you're talking about. Spain was running surpluses before the 2008 financial crisis. Italy had very small deficits even after that. There was no profligate spending as you say. That's a lie conservatives continue to repeat even though it's been repeatedly discredited.

As for capital flow, nobody talked about handouts. What everyone (even Draghi) asks from Germany and the other northern European countries is to ease monetary policy and let their inflation rise a little because southern Europe is in imminent danger of entering a deflationary vortex.

Spain was running a surplus due to their economy overheating. Running up debt is not the only kind of failed policy there is.

Monetary policy is set by the ECB, not by any individual country. Which, I'll grant, is retarded but you guys all insisted on this euro project so much. Tongue
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Jennifer Lawrence and many other celebrities... on: September 02, 2014, 06:49:51 pm
A part of me wants to feel sorry of them, but another part of me thinks it serves them right and they shouldn't have taken the pictures in the first place.

Please elaborate on which consensual sexual acts you believe women should and should not do, Obamanation.

Whatever they want to do, let them do it. Like I said, I'm conflicted about this.

Obamanation is sexist again? STOP THE PRESSES!
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which party would other countries vote for? on: September 02, 2014, 06:23:00 pm
Seriously, there are very few countries that would vote for the Republicans. In most countries, they would be a fringe far-right party. Like the FN in France or whatever.

As fringe as France's biggest party, you mean? Tongue
25  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Should people with disabilities who are unable to attain orgasm, be allowed to.. on: September 02, 2014, 06:19:46 pm
I feel like it says something very revealing about Atlas that most of the No votes are from Dems.
The radical sexphobic feminist prudes greatly outnumber the SoCons here.

Opposing sexual abuse isn't being sexphobic. Tongue

Also, this is legal in Denmark but it certainly isn't in Sweden. I'd guess it to be illegal in most places where prostitution is. And it obviously affects some people. So I don't see how it is a weird question to ask, at all.
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