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February 14, 2016, 06:12:16 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of the "battlers for 2nd place" will end up with the fewest NH votes? on: February 08, 2016, 07:29:09 pm
Seems likely to  be Bush or Christie.

Cruz won't care but Bush, Christie and Kasich all need a top 3 finish to stay in, I think. 
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump calls for Iowa REVOTE over his loss to Cruz on: February 03, 2016, 10:06:39 am
That is just sad.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If a state like Virginia or Ohio was first on: February 03, 2016, 05:38:45 am
The early primary schedule is great for Sanders, lily-white fairly liberal states that are small and thus easy to win with passionate grassroots and one of which neighbours his state.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Report: Santorum to "reassess" campaign on: February 02, 2016, 03:36:27 pm
Didn't he say he was gonna drop out unless he beat the single-digit candidates in Iowa?
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Greetings on: February 02, 2016, 01:58:25 pm
Hey Inks, congrats on the wedding!
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Nate Silver Missed Donald Trump on: January 27, 2016, 09:45:43 am
I think it's telling that in this thread the people who understand what he did are a lot more sympathetic to the model while those who ridicule it seem to have not understood it.

Now that I've read page 2 I largely agree with Alcon's points.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Nate Silver Missed Donald Trump on: January 27, 2016, 09:24:12 am
Putting up hypotheses based on data and testing them isn't "wrong".

Since polls are generally very unreliable in primaries compared to general elections, trying to put in more data makes sense.

But I guess joining the latest lynch mob to shout in unison is more fun for some people.

Well, he has seemed awfully certain about this, showing little indications of considering arguments that ran counter to his conclusions (and making a lot of dubious arguments himself, such as the idea that Trump as a candidate was more or less equivalent to earlier "anti-establishment candidate" (none of whom shared Trump's level of support over time, his celebrity status, and probably lots of other factors). Now that Silver is starting to backtrack, at the very last moment, I hardly think he should be considered the victim of a "lynch mob".

And on the flipside, when he's right he is largely lauded as a genius, even when his statistical modeling barely differs from a simple polling average.

Those are different points. I agree Silver has seemed reluctant to admit Trump is doing well.

What I take issue with is the constant ridicule of him not just looking at polling data. I find that line of attack pretty silly.

I also think it's generally petty to hate on people because other people laud them as geniuses. I guess the saintly users on Atlas Forum would have refused lucrative contracts with the media out of principle but I harbour no such self-illusions. If people proclaimed me the Messiah for pointing out obvious things I'd cash that check.

It's not that he's not just looking at polling data, it's that his non-polls data this year is garbage. "Endorsement points" is an absurd premise worse than most pbrower stuff.

No, from what I recall all his non-polls data is based on historical correlations. The endorsement points are weighed in based on how similar endorsements have correlated with vote share in the past.

And that just seems like basic sound methodology to me. Maybe the historical record was wrong or maybe this is just an outlier. Doesn't really make him an idiot or a fraud though.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If you went into a coma for 6 months, and woke up to O'Malley vs. Gilmore... on: January 26, 2016, 07:11:25 pm
The O'Malley part is kind of fine, because all it takes is really Clinton disappearing from the race somehow for it to not be totally unreasonable.

Gilmore is another story...
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Nate Silver Missed Donald Trump on: January 26, 2016, 09:27:54 am
Everyone on this pathetic subforum has been wrong every step of the way. I just love seeing the patronizing, oblivious, and condescending "moderates" squirm and lose all influence that they may have once had.

Wonderful election season.

You love this election season because some people on Atlas you dislike lost their "influence" over...something important, I assume. Really?

I think casting it in those terms just makes you a part of what you say you hate. Tongue

Huh I meant "moderates" as in Republican Party moderates, and in some way Democratic Party moderates (although I dislike Sanders). The Atlas moderates being humiliated is just a side-benefit.

Oh. Given how you wrote that I assumed you meant pathetic moderates on this subforum (that seems to have been a popular notion as of late). Never mind then. Tongue
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Nate Silver Missed Donald Trump on: January 26, 2016, 09:27:00 am
Putting up hypotheses based on data and testing them isn't "wrong".

Since polls are generally very unreliable in primaries compared to general elections, trying to put in more data makes sense.

But I guess joining the latest lynch mob to shout in unison is more fun for some people.

Well, he has seemed awfully certain about this, showing little indications of considering arguments that ran counter to his conclusions (and making a lot of dubious arguments himself, such as the idea that Trump as a candidate was more or less equivalent to earlier "anti-establishment candidate" (none of whom shared Trump's level of support over time, his celebrity status, and probably lots of other factors). Now that Silver is starting to backtrack, at the very last moment, I hardly think he should be considered the victim of a "lynch mob".

And on the flipside, when he's right he is largely lauded as a genius, even when his statistical modeling barely differs from a simple polling average.

Those are different points. I agree Silver has seemed reluctant to admit Trump is doing well.

What I take issue with is the constant ridicule of him not just looking at polling data. I find that line of attack pretty silly.

I also think it's generally petty to hate on people because other people laud them as geniuses. I guess the saintly users on Atlas Forum would have refused lucrative contracts with the media out of principle but I harbour no such self-illusions. If people proclaimed me the Messiah for pointing out obvious things I'd cash that check.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Nate Silver Missed Donald Trump on: January 26, 2016, 09:24:40 am
Everyone on this pathetic subforum has been wrong every step of the way. I just love seeing the patronizing, oblivious, and condescending "moderates" squirm and lose all influence that they may have once had.

Wonderful election season.

You love this election season because some people on Atlas you dislike lost their "influence" over...something important, I assume. Really?

I think casting it in those terms just makes you a part of what you say you hate. Tongue
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Nate Silver Missed Donald Trump on: January 26, 2016, 08:52:34 am
Putting up hypotheses based on data and testing them isn't "wrong".

Since polls are generally very unreliable in primaries compared to general elections, trying to put in more data makes sense.

But I guess joining the latest lynch mob to shout in unison is more fun for some people.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Why do some object to calling Jeb! "low energy"? on: January 25, 2016, 09:51:45 am
Maybe they think it's a silly playground taunt that got old for adults after the first one million hilarious repetitions of it.

But I'm just guessing.
14  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: A request for clarification on: January 20, 2016, 08:12:27 am
I am strongly of the opinion that one has every right to attack immoral and incorrect views, using harsh language if required.

It is, as I think you are implying, a necessary corollary to allowing controversial views to be expressed on the forum.

There may be grey areas at time when attacking views becomes abusive or unnecessarily hostile. (for example if one were to consistently hound a mainstream Democrat and refer to them as Communist or something along those lines).

I think your posting style is sometimes needlessly confrontational but hardly at a level that warrants moderation.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: ARG-NH: Trump 27, Kasich 20, Rubio 10 on: January 20, 2016, 06:29:21 am
I thought ARG's thing these days was to put forward reasonable averages from better pollsters and pretend they did a real poll. This seems like a risky step away from that.
16  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: is brother Dean mentally ill? on: January 18, 2016, 04:09:23 am
This really sounds like a parody to me but who knows.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538's 2016 Primary Forecasts on: January 14, 2016, 01:34:51 pm
Yeah, people need to chill. I think this is very interesting and I like the transparency of what they're doing. Maybe the plus model is wrong but how would we know without testing it like this?
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Cologne: Up to 1,000 men of Arab and North African origin sexually assault women on: January 11, 2016, 10:25:14 am
There is an important distinction between the story Ingemann mentions and this one though, in that one is about the media deciding not to cover a story that much and specifically the media not reporting the ethnic background of perpetrators. There are arguments to be made for why that is wrong/right, etc.

This is the actual police declaring that a festival was safe and nothing happened while knowing that multiple young girls were sexually violated, in order to promote a political agenda (the chief of police is known for hating the Sweden Democrats, he has tweeted that seeing their party leader makes him wanna puke).

It is actually astounding.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Cologne: Up to 1,000 men of Arab and North African origin sexually assault women on: January 10, 2016, 02:34:44 pm
Apparently, incidents like this happened twice at the main Stockholm youth festival, both 2014 and 2015. But the police hushed it down and withheld information about the frequency of sexual assault on young girls from immigrant gangs due to fears of helping the Sweden Democrats.

It sounds completely insane but since it's reported by our main newspaper which is additionally running a generally very pro-immigration agenda and they're citing highlevel police officials on the record with this information I don't know how it couldn't be true.

Whoever thought up this strategy to deal with the Sweden Democrats was truly idiotic.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you feel "the system" is working more or less as it should? on: January 10, 2016, 02:02:27 pm
No. Despite having the technological ability end such ailments, poverty, malnutrution, repression, premature mortality, disgusting working conditions, war, inequality, illiteracy and deprivation are endemic, and even treated as "just part of the natural order". I'm increasingly convinced that one of the enemies of human progress is the nation-state, but petty nationalism continues to shackle us, and most every other internationalist I've met sounds like a hippy-dippy moron. Even in my first world country, we are led by a small clique from a handful of public schools; yet any attempt to challenge the supremacy of these institutions is met with a screech. The idle rich get away with murder while the poor get sucked dry. There is no solidarity between oppressed persons, despite the fevered dreams of trots. Abuse of children and women by those in powerful goes on unabated. Despite the grave strain the World is under, the system is only achingly slowly moving or even conceiving the thought that will give arise to such a shift.

I mean liberal capitalism is the best solution that has been tried out at the moment. But to say such a system is the best humanity can come up with would basically border on misanthropy...

I'm not sure where you get this dark outlook. We have eradicated so much poverty, illness and unfairness in the world and empowered so many previously powerless people that it is almost impossible to grasp. The progress is staggering and shows no sign of letting up either. Most of human history could be accurately described by your post, but in more recent years we see progress on an unprecedented scale.

I mean, here you guys are sitting around discussing whether the life as a young healthy person destined (at least on average) to join the highest income levels in one of the richest countries the world has ever seen is not really as good as you'd like.

There are plenty of injustices to combat in the world but we should do it with a sense of optimism and a clear understanding of what works.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can any more candidates catch momentum? on: January 10, 2016, 05:15:32 am
I find it interesting that people who have followed recent years of primary campaigns can be so oblivious to how common these swings are. Primaries are very difficult to predict so I wouldn't count anyone out.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What's your excuse for not being in a relationship? on: January 09, 2016, 09:26:39 am
Lol, Atlas. I'd imagine that maybe treating women as normal human beings might be the most reasonable thing if you want to not look creepy.

Oh, come on. This is the Atlas. We are infamous for this. God knows how politicus managed for so long. Wink Personally I am hoping for a critical mass of diversity, of all kinds. I may not show it, but I don't enjoy being the only black person here. Tongue I mean, a black Republican? Come on. I'm not really representative of the demographic.

Yeah, I know. Still though...
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What's your excuse for not being in a relationship? on: January 07, 2016, 10:37:43 pm
Lol, Atlas. I'd imagine that maybe treating women as normal human beings might be the most reasonable thing if you want to not look creepy.

My excuse would be having a hard time to settle down for one person. It ain't easy in the world of relationships.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Hello on: January 07, 2016, 09:35:03 pm
I think the clapping thing is linked to Eastern Europe a bit. Partly, getting out of there during the Cold War as a relief thing and partly if you flew with airlines like Aeroflot where surviving the flight was a big deal. Tongue
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 4th quarter fundraising #s on: January 07, 2016, 05:44:56 am
FTR, Maxwell is correct about misogynist language. Gendered slurs, even when relatively mild, are there for a reason.

So is 15th the deadline when they have to report numbers?
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