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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VA-Fox: Northam +4 on: September 20, 2017, 09:05:58 am
Lol, why would you actively promote herding? What idiocy.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread on: September 20, 2017, 04:04:49 am
The way the polls are moving, I will now say that if Venstre gets above the threshold, things are looking very good for the current four majority parties, even if the Greens cross the threshold as well. A recent Respons poll for Aftenposten has this scenario with a 88-81 lead for the current majority parties.

Frp is getting a great deal of attention on their key issue of immigration, which means that they are reaching the 16.3% or above from 2013 in several polls in these days. First, Sylvi Listhaug got a great deal of attention with her proposal to stop following the ECHR's rulings, then Støre decided to make his attack on Solberg for "making Norway a colder and harder place" due to taking Frp into government and accepting Listhaug's rhetoric and proposals, and the finally, there has been a lot of talk about Listhaug's recent trip to Sweden. The Swedish immigration minister Helene Fritzon cancelled on her just before their planned meeting, so instead Listhaug went to the crime-infested ghetto of Rinkeby to illustrate the failed Swedish immigration policies that Norway should try to avoid.

I quote this from the norwegian election threat to ask swedish posters if Rinkeby is in fact an evidence of "failed" swedish immigration policies. I know crime, poverty and unemployment is high there, but is not surprising given the kind of people are there (poor immigrants/refugees from abroad+some poor swedes) and the government are doing good policies there. I read that the schools there are doing great things to integrate the population and despite the difficulties, there are clear advances to integrate people into swedish society. But I don't really know and it could be great to know something from a svensk.

Well, the debate is very polarized. Rinkeby is pretty bad by normal Swedish standards but it's not Somalia, or even Detroit as some people would have you think.

In terms of it being evidence of failed immigration policy, I don't know. Sweden has had a policy of taking in very large numbers of refugees with very low human capital. I think integration efforts have been decent, given that, but it was probably never going to lead to anything other than the outcome we have in in those areas. I guess you can view it as a failure in the sense that our political leaders seem to have actually not understood what the obvious consequences would be, but it's a bit like calling a budget deficit "evidence of failed spending policy".

Sweden doesn't really have integration in the sense that people who come here remain underemployed and segregated for their entire lives and so do their children. From that perspective integration in the longer term is a monumental failure, obviously.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: Parliamentarian rules reconciliation expires September 30 on: September 20, 2017, 03:28:59 am
One thing that strikes me as odd is this  - they lost last time essentially because McCain was upset with the lack of bipartisanship and decided to f**k them. So their solution this time is to publicly give the middle finger to bipartisanship to put pressure on people? Like, it doesn't seem like the ideal design for that end.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 on: September 19, 2017, 03:32:33 am
Ya I'm with Rj on this one, the accusations clearly were literally neither baseless nor fabricated nor made up. All the people saying that are just straight wrong. While they are certainly misleading and invasive of personal privacy and probably immoral to bring up given that they have been disproven / denounced by the original accuser, the various red avatars who are triggered by this and lashing out are 100% in the wrong imo. It's not like Rj was saying they were real he was commenting on them as a point of fact and to attack him because of something that is true is pretty pathetic.

Anyway this sort of thing has been dredged up numerous times before (see: Clinton, Trump, Obama's original senate opponent in 2004, etc) and they have had varying degrees of impact on the respective races. The way the media attempts to label people as 'possible wifebeater' or 'alleged sexual assaulted' is disgusting when it happens with no proof, because it goes contrary to the very foundation of our legal system. It's slimy and this has happened repeatedly on both sides of the aisle, particularly with regards to digging up old divorce cases and lobbying judges to unseal them for political gain.

None of the wrongness makes this an invalid point to make within the context of the Atlas forum, however. It is a real issue that could have real political consequences, even if it is based on accusations that have been proven false. It is very possible Sherrod doesn't want to run for president lest these get dragged into the race get again.

In any case, it seems that the voters did not care in 2012 and therefore are unlikely to care in 2018, so his whole thing is kind of moot when discussing this senate race.

Not that I'm particularly invested, but I think throwing out the sentence "The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run" without any additional explanation or context is kind of slanderous given the situation. I can understand why people would react to that.

It's not in anyway slanderous, nor is it outrageous for me to mention in such a casual way. It has been used routinely in campaigns against Brown with varying levels of success, it is a pretty open and public topic, and it is a legitimate allegation made against him by his ex-wife. For me to think that it could sink the presidential aspirations of a  64 year old white male senator from the midwest, in what I expect to be a crowded (but top heavy) field is not in anyway unreasonable.

Right, but I think the point is rather that you could just as well have said something like "even though the allegations have been withdrawn and are denied by the supposed victim, they could still hurt him" in order to make that point.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AL-SEN Megathread: Trump endorses BIG LUTHER, Moore still leads polls on: September 19, 2017, 03:25:20 am
Moore was coming out against race war on minorities though. That seems ultra-progressive for an Alabama Republican so I'll give a pass on him using language that is offensive. Especially as even the language is pretty mellow for his context - I would imagine most Alabama Republicans to use considerably worse terms. Tongue
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Georgia Tech Student Activist shot dead by campus police on: September 19, 2017, 03:19:11 am
I saw the video of this. This isn't the worst case of police abuse in the US, but generally it's obvious to me that there is a severe problem with US cops being way too trigger-happy. This person didn't actually seem very dangerous in the clip, more disturbed and I'm pretty sure the situation could have been de-escalated. As has already been noted, Nordic police forces act a lot less aggressively and it seems to work fine (I'm pretty sure shooting at legs is the Swedish policy as well).

Also, yes, I'd probably be scared and shoot someone in the face if they came at me with a knife. I'm not a trained police officer. They should be trained to deal better with those situations rather than shoot first, ask questions later.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OH-SEN: And There Were 4 on: September 18, 2017, 12:29:32 pm
Ya I'm with Rj on this one, the accusations clearly were literally neither baseless nor fabricated nor made up. All the people saying that are just straight wrong. While they are certainly misleading and invasive of personal privacy and probably immoral to bring up given that they have been disproven / denounced by the original accuser, the various red avatars who are triggered by this and lashing out are 100% in the wrong imo. It's not like Rj was saying they were real he was commenting on them as a point of fact and to attack him because of something that is true is pretty pathetic.

Anyway this sort of thing has been dredged up numerous times before (see: Clinton, Trump, Obama's original senate opponent in 2004, etc) and they have had varying degrees of impact on the respective races. The way the media attempts to label people as 'possible wifebeater' or 'alleged sexual assaulted' is disgusting when it happens with no proof, because it goes contrary to the very foundation of our legal system. It's slimy and this has happened repeatedly on both sides of the aisle, particularly with regards to digging up old divorce cases and lobbying judges to unseal them for political gain.

None of the wrongness makes this an invalid point to make within the context of the Atlas forum, however. It is a real issue that could have real political consequences, even if it is based on accusations that have been proven false. It is very possible Sherrod doesn't want to run for president lest these get dragged into the race get again.

In any case, it seems that the voters did not care in 2012 and therefore are unlikely to care in 2018, so his whole thing is kind of moot when discussing this senate race.

Not that I'm particularly invested, but I think throwing out the sentence "The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run" without any additional explanation or context is kind of slanderous given the situation. I can understand why people would react to that.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Politico: The Loneliest President on: September 18, 2017, 12:08:11 pm
I strongly recommend watching Trump's review of Citizen Kane: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeQOJZ-QzBk

Makes you realize what a sad idiot he's always been even on matters less related to politics.

LOL

Q: "If you could give Charles Foster Kane adivce, what would you say to him?"

A: "Get yourself a different woman."

That's deep, Donald, so deep.

To be honest I can't really imagine a more profound misunderstanding of the movie. It kind of IS deep in a way.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What race are the Democrats most likely to win? on: September 17, 2017, 05:18:25 am
Why Tennessee?

Gun to my head I'd say Alabama because it seems like more of a crazy race with unpredictable factors in it. I'm not sure Democrats should "put stock in it" though, given that even if the upset happened they'd almost certainly lose it next year anyway.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Politico: The Loneliest President on: September 17, 2017, 05:08:03 am
I strongly recommend watching Trump's review of Citizen Kane: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeQOJZ-QzBk

Makes you realize what a sad idiot he's always been even on matters less related to politics.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why do police killings of African Americans get disproportionate news coverage? on: September 17, 2017, 04:35:08 am
It fits a narrative. It helps the democrats divide people into groups.

It just amazes me how many people fall for this narrative, even very intelligent people.  I had a discussion with several co-workers (one lawyer, the other a data analyst) who literally thought that the overwhelming majority of people killed by policy were African American.

Yes, it's factually correct that more white people are killed by the police in the United States, but that's a dubious statistic unless you first adjust for population.

If you adjust for population first, black Americans are 2.5 times as likely as white Americans to be shot and killed by police officers.


Uh, I discussed this in detail in my original post.  The stats I linked to indicate that they are 85% more likely to be killed by police than their portion of the population (not 150% as you say).  

Also there are confounding circumstances as I discussed, African American communities have far higher rates of crime and violence (over 50% of all homicides are committed by African Americans) on average so you would expect more African Americans to be killed by police if only for that reason.

Also I acknowledge that there may be historical/cultural reasons (economic/physical oppression and resultant cultural pathologies) for the high rate of violence/crime in AA communities.



Just as a mathematical note, if the black share of police shootings is 85% higher than their population share and the white share is something like 20% lower than their population share, it means black people are about 2.5 times more likely to get shot than white people.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: HRC Book Megathread - HRC - "No absolution for women who didn't vote for me" on: September 17, 2017, 04:22:03 am
It's pretty hilarious that on a forum where people regularly ragequit over losing fake elections in a made up fantasy world with like 40 people participating, everyone is convinced they'd be super magnanimous if they lost the US presidential election to Donald Trump because the media decided to devote 90% of their reporting about your e-mails.

But sure guys.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Do you think that the Democrats will win the Senate in 2018? on: September 16, 2017, 08:16:37 am
Nope. But I don't think it's impossible either. As been noted, picking up NV+AZ seems very doable and I don't think any D incumbents are doomed. In a D wave year they could all hold on. This outcome is less likely than the GOP picking off at least one seat, obviously, but it's a fairly good one.

The 51st seat is the issue obviously. But I think if you add up (technically multiply the inverse of) the probabilities of a Jones upset in Alabama, McCain retiring and Ds picking up his seat, Hatch losing the Utah seat, Cruz losing in Texas and some other GOP senator unexpectedly stepping down you do get something non-zero. Still probably not more than about 5% or so though.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Megathread on: September 16, 2017, 07:01:14 am
I think there's an issue with your second chart Mondale - the swings are not consistent in terms of which number is being subtracted from the other. From looking at it it looks to me like Republicans gained on average 2.5 points though from special election performance to midterm performance, if I'm reading that correctly? So saying that specials 'predict' house margin is a bit overstated - the margin of error on that is fairly large (standard deviation of 2.9 points, if I'm calculating it correctly), which would make the 95% confidence interval on the swing from special elections to national midterm house vote range from (-3.1,+8.1), where negative indicates a swing towards Democrats.

Of course the normal approximation to such a data set is not likely to be particularly accurate, and in fact the larger special margins tended to normalize (+9 for Republicans shifted left 2 points, +15 for Democrats shifted right 7 points), rather than shift with the average. I guess Dems basically hope that 2018 will mimic 2006, but I'm having a hard time seeing anything beyond the 30-seat pickup of 2006 based on the data (and there are good arguments why even a 2006 comparison is overstating things a bit).

I think the point of that table isn't the direction, just stating that the GE margin is strongly anchored by the special election margin.

You're right it's a small dataset and I assume it'd be sensitive to where the elections are held since swings aren't uniform. In 2002, one of the bigger deviations in the table, I guess there was a shift because of 9/11 in favour of the GOP.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trumpcare Megathread: Parliamentarian rules reconciliation expires September 30 on: September 16, 2017, 06:50:51 am
Is it actually dead?
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Clinton on Maddow last night. Why do people hate her? on: September 15, 2017, 12:20:16 pm
A good idea when addressing criticisms of Hillary Clinton is to ask yourself "Could I use this same defense of Hillary word for word to dismiss criticisms of Margaret Thatcher?" and if the answer is yes, delete your post and start over.
Ehh...the problem with Thatcher was her politics, not her competence.

The problem with Hillary is her politics.

This is true. Anyone who voted for the Iraq War, which was an obvious farce based on a pack of lies, does not have the judgement to be president.
She did so very reluctancly, contrary to urban legend. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2016/02/hillary_clinton_told_the_truth_about_her_iraq_war_vote.html

Oh well that makes it ok then.

THis is of course why Kerry, Feinstein and Schumer are tied for top most hated Democratic politician together with Clinton.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Clinton on Maddow last night. Why do people hate her? on: September 15, 2017, 05:38:30 am
A good idea when addressing criticisms of Hillary Clinton is to ask yourself "Could I use this same defense of Hillary word for word to dismiss criticisms of Margaret Thatcher?" and if the answer is yes, delete your post and start over.
Ehh...the problem with Thatcher was her politics, not her competence.

The analogy really does make it sound like his issue is with women in power. Tongue
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread on: September 14, 2017, 08:13:32 pm
More "anti-Israel=antisemitic" nonsense in this thread. Roll Eyes

I take it you didn't actually bother to read the discussion.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AL-SEN 2017: Should Strange run as a write-in if Moore wins runoff? on: September 14, 2017, 09:48:44 am
I don't see why he would do such a thing. Murkowski, Lieberman and any analogous situation depends on the candidate being popular with the electorate at-large (specifically with strong cross-over appeal) but unpopular with their own base. Strange, as far as I understand, is unpopular in general and as a white Alabama Republican probably has close to zero cross-over appeal to Black Democrats.

The one way such a candidate can be successful is by convincing voters they're more electable than their first choice in order to stop someone they really dislike. But Strange would start with less than half of Republicans v Jones having all of the Democrats. Why on earth would anyone think Strange more electable in that scenario?
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread on: September 14, 2017, 08:37:04 am
The radical left has never been a reliable ally in the fight for human rights

Uh, then who are the "reliable all[ies]" of the human rights movement? I don't see how the people with the deepest-seated commitment to egalitarian principles are anything but the primary allies of the humans rights cause.

Anti-semites don't really have a deep-seated commitment to egalitarian principles. Tongue

Us liberals who actually support universal human rights are the good guys. The radical left is a good ally at times but discussions like this is a useful reminder that it can't be relied upon. Currently, the radical left cannot be relied upon to protect Jews, for example.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread on: September 13, 2017, 06:48:10 pm
BDS supports punishing individual Israelis for the "crime" of being Israeli. The radical left has never been a reliable ally in the fight for human rights but it's important for the mainstream left to be clear about those issues. 



One always has to resort to baby talk on here. So step by step:

1. "Not being a reliable ally" implies that the subject is SOMETIMES an ally, but cannot be relied upon.

2. As such, the statement explicitly says that the radical left is indeed an ally at times.

3. Therefore, your response that it has been an ally in a specific situation does not contradict the statement and rather confirms it. The addition that the person was Stalinist further underlines my original point.

4. You should try and not embarrass yourself like this in the future.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Attempted lynching of biracial child in New Hampshire? on: September 13, 2017, 06:39:28 pm
Yeah these teens weren't racist until January 20, 2017.  Roll Eyes 

...that isn't the claim. Roll Eyes

It seems to be Jedi's claim.......of course he's best ignored, which reminds me.........

I didn't know you had turned into one of the sensitive snowflakes who need to put people on ignore. Tongue

"Yeah, these Germans weren't Nazis until January 30th 1933" is a pretty nonsensical statement to make.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: HRC Book Interview - Bernie must prove he is not a spoiler by helping other Dems on: September 13, 2017, 12:24:38 pm
538 had a pretty good chat on it. I think this was a pretty good quote:

"A lot of the criticism of the book goes something like “Clinton is blaming everyone else for her losing” instead of taking responsibility.[...] That criticism is such a dumb argument that it’s not really worth debating it."

I agree so I won't. The Bernie Bros* were never all that bright so trying to reason with them isn't worth the time.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-hillary-clinton-right-about-why-she-lost/

*Does not refer to anyone who voted for Sanders but to we-all-know-who

Nate Silver is such a blatantly oblivious and inaccurate commentator that his arguments are not really worth debating.

The guy was always an idiot who came up with stupid predictions which failed time after time. And anyone who requires the Hillary hack Nate Silver to understand whether a person is blaming others or not has serious cognitive issues. I can understand a statistical analysis but this is basic human behaviour which a child can understand.

And Nate Silver drags his as* in here. And people wonder why Democrats keep losing elections & have so many dumb people running the party. This is some funny shi* - Nate Silver is going to explain the basic meaning of a sentence from now on.

Haha, ok guys, wipe the froth away, take a few deep breaths, remember that you're raging over a book you haven't even read and step away from the keyboard.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Attempted lynching of biracial child in New Hampshire? on: September 13, 2017, 09:56:31 am
Yeah these teens weren't racist until January 20, 2017.  Roll Eyes 

...that isn't the claim. Roll Eyes
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: HRC Book Interview - Bernie must prove he is not a spoiler by helping other Dems on: September 13, 2017, 09:50:32 am
538 had a pretty good chat on it. I think this was a pretty good quote:

"A lot of the criticism of the book goes something like “Clinton is blaming everyone else for her losing” instead of taking responsibility.[...] That criticism is such a dumb argument that it’s not really worth debating it."

I agree so I won't. The Bernie Bros* were never all that bright so trying to reason with them isn't worth the time.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-hillary-clinton-right-about-why-she-lost/

*Does not refer to anyone who voted for Sanders but to we-all-know-who
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