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General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws
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on: May 24, 2013, 11:01:26 pm
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Is SUSA robocalling cell phones or only landlines? I remember then skewing old.
Doesn't look to skew that old, but only 63% among under-35s is a little suspicious. Interesting confirmation for Native American support for SSM, though; New Mexico might be the only state with a big enough Native population to get a not-totally-ridiculous sample size. Poll seems off, I agree, but who knows. SUSA does have a reputation for being random. What about Arizona or Oklahoma?
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General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: WA State Geography and House Districts
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on: April 12, 2013, 01:11:34 pm
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"Moderate-to-conservative" Bellevue? Maybe in the 90s. It's one of the most Democratic towns in the district, much more so than places like Auburn or Federal Way.
Is Federal Way really that democratic? My aunt and uncle live there. They're pretty conservative, that doesn't mean anything, but that's interesting. Apparently Auburn is in Reichert's district, though, so bad example. Kent, Des Moines, SeaTac and Tukwila are similar (mid-to-high-50s Obama), though. Kent is the most similar and it's right around 60%, I believe, but Des Moines, SeaTac, and especially Tukwila are all super D. Tukwila gave Obama 73%. SeaTac was ~65%, Des Moines ~63/64. Bellevue's Obama percentage in '08 was 64%, it went down some '12. A thing to remember though, Bellevue still supports Republicans and fiscally conservative candidates at the local level more so than Des Moines (similar Obama percentage) and barely less so than Kent (a smaller Obama percentage). Also, the Federal Way/Kent/Des Moines/SeaTac/Tukwila/Renton area swung D in 2012, take of that what you will. Also, welcome to the forum KingSweden! We've got an awesome WA mega thread in the Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections forum. You should take a peek. 
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General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: ...And Now Bill Nelson
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on: April 04, 2013, 05:32:28 pm
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Not sure why he held out for so long.
Because he, in his heart, still opposes gay marriage. This was forced. Because Democrats want to hold this seat. He obviously isn't conservative enough to not endorse SSM. I think he's a good fit for Florida. Not sure why he hasn't been primaried yet, because Florida isn't exactly a conservative state. Although, considering the Florida Dem Bench...
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General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: .... And now Tom Carper
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on: April 03, 2013, 12:23:44 am
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Here are the remaining Democratic Senators who don't support
Heidtikamp, Donnelly, and Manchin strike me as pretty right wing. Pryor and Landrieu are also pretty conservative and not from friendly states. Johnson is retiring so might come out for it. Bill Nelson tomorrow?
Pryor and Manchin seem to legitimately against SSM. Johnson might announce support, but doesn't seem particularly supportive in the first place, nor does he want to hurt his son's chances if he runs. Heitkamp has remained rather mum over the issue. Others have noted that she would support it if she wasn't North Dakota's senator. I agree. Donnelly has always been fairly centrist, though I could see him supporting before the others, as Indiana is less socially conservative than the above states. Landrieu won't support it yet, if she wants to win re-election. I think most democratics are okay with that. Her statements sound like she very much personally supports SSM, though. On a side note, I'm really beginning to appreciate Landrieu. I think of all the D senators left, Nelson seems to be the only one who could conceivably support SSM without major negative ramifications. It would not be a complete surprise if either one of these three (in addition to Nelson) decide to announce their support: Heitkamp, Donnelly, or Johnson (and that's simply because he's retiring).
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General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: age cohort size and population distribution
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on: March 18, 2013, 12:09:18 am
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In the case of seniors, it strikes me (contrary to what some have predicted here) as fairly unlikely that the growth of the sun belt will see a significant decline any time soon with the increase in the 65+ population that is about to hit us. While I think this is true, this growth will have to take place in regions of the sun belt with adequate water (Gulf of Mexico, Florida). Eventually, water issues will cap growth in Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, parts of Texas, and Southern California.
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