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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What if your House seat opened up? on: December 20, 2016, 04:45:34 pm
That would be an incredibly short amount of time in Congress for Jayapal. Tongue If that were to happen, maybe Walkinshaw would give it another go.

100% both McDermott and Walkinshaw would battle it out. Maybe Sawant too?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: White Nationalist Richard Spencer May Run for Congress on: December 20, 2016, 02:01:19 pm
So, does Denise Juneau run again? Apparently she's being considered for UM's top executive job.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 12, 2016, 07:51:46 pm
Rebecca Saldaņa chosen to replace Jayapal in the LD37. I believe she works for the Puget Sound Sage and comes from a similar background as Jayapal, social activism (environmental/equity vs. immigration).

She'll face fierce competition come the special/election time.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 09, 2016, 01:01:27 pm
Ugh, I hope not. I'm no big fan of McMorris-Rodgers, but she was always competent. I don't like Baumgartner. If he doesn't run, does Parker?

Pakootas again for the Ds?
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: In which major city did Hillary receive the highest % of white voters? on: December 07, 2016, 11:54:07 am
Probably San Francisco

Definitely not, Seattle is more white and gave Clinton a larger margin (a first!).

I think it's between Seattle (~88-8.44) and DC.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 06, 2016, 02:04:07 pm
Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

You are right- it is in 2017. The Ds should gain control of the Senate then. It'll be (23+1) - 25?

RI, amazing maps!
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 06, 2016, 12:36:19 am
Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: December 04, 2016, 03:49:18 pm
I had been working for a long time on a mega-gerrymander with tons of snake-like states, and, just when I had Hillary down to the mid-40s (confined entirely to parts of the SF Bay Area, LA County, and NYC), I accidentally hit the "see how arbitrary our system is link instead of the move button!  Now, it's all gone!

Something like this?:

I am a monster. 493-45


9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 01, 2016, 08:17:32 pm
Now that the count is final, my Seattle precincts:

Clinton: 341 (87.2%)
Trump: 37 (9.5%)
Johnson: 10 (2.6%)
Stein: 3 (.7%)

Voter turnout was very good, returned ballots: 402/425.

and my other one:

Clinton: 349 (91.4%)  LOL 95.9-4.1, in the two-way
Stein: 15 (3.9%)
Trump: 8 (2.1%)
Johnson: 7 (1.8%)
Castle: 2 (.5%)
La Riva: 1 (.3%)

Turnout is typical of a university area with a high turnover of addresses. 399/548.

It looks like that CD precinct that initially cast no votes for Trump now has him with 1 vote. That's his worst in the city.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 01, 2016, 02:50:11 pm
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 01, 2016, 12:26:40 pm
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/
12  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: November 30, 2016, 08:15:44 pm
I am a monster. 493-45

13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Single Most shocking county result? on: November 22, 2016, 10:11:26 pm
I'm still shocked that Elliott County swung as hard as it did. 70-26 R from 49-47 D.

Also Trumbull County, OH. Went from 60.5-37.5 D to 51-44 R. Or for that matter, Mahoning and Lackawanna counties. I expected swings to Trump, but it's still shocking to see how huge they were.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 21, 2016, 11:41:25 pm
Also, for the first time since the 1920s (?) Pacific and Grays Harbor counties voted R for governor. It's actually pretty amazing how Trump was able to drag generic R up in Southwest WA, particularly in Wahkiakum and Cowlitz.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 21, 2016, 11:22:27 pm
With just 22k votes left to count in the state, I think it's safe to say that there's no change in the house (+2 Ds in LD30, +1 R in LD31, +1 R in LD19) and +1 D in the senate (LD41).

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 18, 2016, 02:44:18 am
My registered address is in very white, increasingly very wealthy part of northeast Seattle:

Clinton: 236 (88.7%)
Trump: 24 (9.0%)
Johnson: 5 (1.9%)
Stein: 1 (.4%)
Write-in: 2
Blank: 2

total ballots returned so far: 270, though President would be out of 266. This precinct was 81.5-17.5 for Obama in 2008. Murray "only" got 84% and Inslee 81%. Walkinshaw got 52.8%.

Ha, I used to live right down the street from you on the other side of 65th.  Nice area, super boring.

Mine was 80-14, a big swing from 77-22 in 2012.

Edit: Also, just FYI for people looking at King County numbers, the ones posted are just from Election Night.  Turnout was fine!

Yeah, boring is right, although a nice place to grow up. Surprised we voted to the left of Crumpet's Ballard precinct though.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 17, 2016, 02:04:49 am
My registered address is in very white, increasingly very wealthy part of northeast Seattle:

Clinton: 236 (88.7%)
Trump: 24 (9.0%)
Johnson: 5 (1.9%)
Stein: 1 (.4%)
Write-in: 2
Blank: 2

total ballots returned so far: 270, though President would be out of 266. This precinct was 81.5-17.5 for Obama in 2008. Murray "only" got 84% and Inslee 81%. Walkinshaw got 52.8%.

Where I live in the University District, Trump tied in 3rd lol:

Clinton: 158 (91.9%)
Johnson: 5 (2.9%)
Trump: 4 / Stein: 4 (2.3 % / 2.3%)
La Riva: 1 (.6%)
Write-in: 2
Blank: 4

Total: 178 counted so far, vote out of 172.

Where did you find this data?

You need to know your precinct number/code, but you enter it in here: https://electionsdata.kingcounty.gov/Government/Nov-2016-Election-night-abstract-by-precinct/kk5t-cjez and scroll all the way down as Pres/Senate are at the bottom.

If you don't know your precinct, you can here: http://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/elections/maps/find-my-districts.aspx
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 16, 2016, 03:40:50 pm
I agree, but that's their only bench. Though I guess Hill was non-political before he ran.

Are there any precincts in Seattle with 0 votes for Trump? Probably not, but I wonder...
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 16, 2016, 03:20:25 pm
My registered address is in very white, increasingly very wealthy part of northeast Seattle:

Clinton: 236 (88.7%)
Trump: 24 (9.0%)
Johnson: 5 (1.9%)
Stein: 1 (.4%)
Write-in: 2
Blank: 2

total ballots returned so far: 270, though President would be out of 266. This precinct was 81.5-17.5 for Obama in 2008. Murray "only" got 84% and Inslee 81%. Walkinshaw got 52.8%.

Where I live in the University District, Trump tied in 3rd lol:

Clinton: 158 (91.9%)
Johnson: 5 (2.9%)
Trump: 4 / Stein: 4 (2.3 % / 2.3%)
La Riva: 1 (.6%)
Write-in: 2
Blank: 4

Total: 178 counted so far, vote out of 172.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 16, 2016, 02:04:39 pm
I think the only person the Rs could run and win with is King County Council member Kathy Lambert. I have no idea if she would want to, considering she left the state house for her current position.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 14, 2016, 06:27:45 pm
I've been following late returns and they've definitely been less pro-Clinton than the election day vote, even in King County. That's a change from the norm, isn't it?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Democrats only control a record low of 5 states now on: November 14, 2016, 04:52:39 pm
oh god, Krazen is back
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How did Rod Blum survive? on: November 14, 2016, 04:49:10 pm
Trump won MN-7 by... 30.

^ Yeah, from the SOS site:

CD1: 53/38 Trump
CD2: 46/45 Trump
CD3: 50/40 Clinton
CD4: 61/30 Clinton
CD5: 73/18 Clinton
CD6: 58/33 Trump
CD7: 61/31 Trump
CD8: 54/38 Trump
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 13, 2016, 01:41:35 pm
Well, third party + right-ins = 9.2% right now in King County. That's pretty high.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 12, 2016, 01:56:35 pm
Alcon, I'm excited for your or realisticidealist's maps.

Some early observations: I'm surprised Port Orchard and Woodway voted for Trump. Also, I don't think Obama ever did as well as Clinton around Gig Harbor/Pierce County part of the Kitsap Peninsula.

It's hard to tell, but did Clinton manage to carry Monroe?
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