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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 06:39:48 pm
I was just looking through WA's gubernatorial results going back into the 80s and I saw something weird.

How is it that Booth Gardner won Cowlitz county with 62% of the vote in 1984, but lost it narrowly in 1988, while sweeping the state? Even Garfield county voted for him (though I imagine Garfield County was not as Republican as it is now). Now that I'm looking, Wahkiakum County also swung significantly against Gardner.

Also why did Dixy Lee Ray get 60%> in Benton and Franklin counties in 1976?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 06:20:35 pm
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.

You might be confusing Oakville with Oak Harbor.

Yarrow Point in the top ten is interesting.

Yup- what a brain fart.

Alcon- Great map!
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 04:55:32 pm
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win the Louisiana Runoff? on: November 05, 2014, 06:51:06 pm
I'm rooting for Landrieu and I hope she somehow pulls out another victory, but alas she's probably going to lose by at least 55-45.

Are Landrieu's runoff chances better with an R-held senate, as is the case, or with a D-held senate?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 01:12:22 am
I think Hickenlooper has got this. Boulder only 84% in, Denver only 74% in, and he's down by 13,000.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 09:44:13 pm
I think Barrah is done... 59% in and he's still down by a lot.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 07:25:27 pm
Lol, with 10% in IN-7, Mayo is leading.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 06:09:45 pm
Fox News shows exit poll NH Sen Brown 50-Shaheen 49
Wow, that's close. The first of many presumbly very close exit polls to come.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Lock/Upset/Bold Prediction on: November 03, 2014, 11:40:24 pm
Lock: Parnell wins in AK
Upset: Schauer barely beats Snyder in MI
Bold Prediction: Hassan wins by at least 10
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Final Prediction Thread on: November 03, 2014, 11:34:08 pm
AK-GOV:
51% Parnell
48% Walker

AZ-GOV:
53% Ducey
46% DuVal

AR-GOV (R Pick-Up):
54% Hutchison
43% Ross

CO-GOV:
49% Hickenlooper
48% Beauprez

CT-GOV:
49% Malloy
48% Foley

FL-GOV (D PICK-UP):
49% Crist
46% Scott

GA-GOV (RUN-OFF):
49% Deal
47% Carter

IL-GOV:
51% Quinn
46% Rauner

KS-GOV (D Pick-Up):
49% Davis
46% Brownback

ME-GOV (D Pick-Up):
45% LePage
46% Michaud
8% Cutler

MD-GOV:
53% Brown
45% Hogan

MA-GOV (R Pick-Up):
49% Barker
47% Coakley

MI-GOV (D Pick-Up):
48% Snyder
49% Schauer

MN-GOV:
54% Dayton
44% Johnson

NH-GOV:
55% Hassan
45% Havenstein

PA-GOV (D Pick-Up):
58% Wolf
42% Corbett

RI-GOV:
48% Raimondo
41% Fung
9% Healey

WI-GOV:
50% Walker
48% Burke
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Final US House of Representatives Predictions on: November 03, 2014, 11:20:30 pm
Safe R:
NC-7 (Open)

Likely R:
AR-4 (Open)
Jeff Denham (CA-7)
David Valadao (CA-21)
Rodney Davis (IL-13)
Jackie Walorski (IN-2)
Steve King (IA-1)
MI-8 (Open)
Kevin Cramer (ND-AL)
Steve Pearce (NM-2)
Tom Reed (NY-23)

NY-21 (Open)
UT-4 (Open)


Lean R:
Mike Coffman (CO-6)
Dan Benishek (MI-1)
Tim Walberg (MI-7)
NJ-3 (Open)
VA-10 (Open)
WV-2 (Open)


Tossup/Tilt R:

Ron Barber (AZ-2)
Ami Bera (CA-7)

Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Brad Schneider (IL-10)

IA-3 (Open)
Michael Grimm (NY-11)


Tossup/Tilt D:
AR-2 (Open)
Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1)
Scott Peters (CA-52)

Steve Southerland (FL-2)
Bill Enyart (IL-12)
IA-1 (Open)
Rick Nolan (MN-8)

Lee Terry (NE-2)
Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1)
Tim Bishop (NY-1)
Dan Maffei (NY-24)
Nick Rahall (WV-3)


Lean D:
Raul Ruiz (CA-26)
Julia Brownley (CA-36)
John Barrow (GA-12)
HI-1 (Open)
ME-02 (Open)
Ann Kuster (NH-2)
Sean Maloney (NY-18)
Pete Galego (TX-23)


Likely D:
Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9)
CA-31 (Open)
Emily Esty (CT-5)
Patrick Murphy (FL-18)
David Loesback (IA-2)
Bill Foster (IL-11
Colin Peterson (MN-2)

12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your Final Predictions about Senate battleground states. (with %) on: November 03, 2014, 11:10:18 pm
Alaska

Begich - 49%
Sullivan - 47%

Arkansas

Pryor - 46%
Cotton - 52%

Colorado

Udall - 47%
Gardner - 49%

Georgia

Perdue - 48%
Nunn - 49%

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 48%

Iowa

Ernst - 49%
Braley - 48%

Kansas

Orman - 48%
Roberts - 50%

Kentucky

McConnell - 52%
Grimes - 47%

Louisiana

Landrieu - 46%
Cassidy - 38%
Maness - 12%

Landrieu - 48%
Cassidy - 52%

New Hampshire

Shaheen - 52%
Brown - 48%

North Carolina

Hagan - 49%
Tillis - 47%
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Lock, Upset, Bold Prediction on: November 03, 2014, 10:57:17 pm
Lock: Roberts wins KS
Upset: Nunn gets over 50% in GA
Bold Prediction: Begich wins by more than 4% and 50% in AK.
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Americans Moving Back Into Suburbs on: May 26, 2014, 04:00:19 am
Not in Seattle, thank goodness!

If only more states required comprehensive plans and urban growth boundaries...
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Former FL Gov. Reubin Askew dead at 85 on: March 14, 2014, 01:46:39 am
Why did his '88 Senate run flop?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-04: Doc Hastings retiring on: February 15, 2014, 12:07:48 am

Our Campaigns corroborates my numbers -- Hastings has not faced a close race since 1996.

In other news, the first Republican candidate -- Janea Holmquist Newbry -- has just announced her candidacy.

I don't doubt you! I'm just peeved that I've been duped by Wikipedia.

I'm sure Didier will announce soon. Out of the potential candidates, I definitely *like* Newbry the best.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-04: Doc Hastings retiring on: February 14, 2014, 05:34:30 pm
I'd love for Maureen Walsh to run. I'm sure she'd have little chance of winning the primary, unfortunately. I'm also sure the Ds will put up a candidate. They actually got within a few points of taking out Hastings in 2006 and within 10 points in 2008.

Wikipedia says Hastings won 60-40 in 2006 and and 63-37 in 2008; basically, this is a noncompetitive district, though it used to be up until the mid-1990s (Hastings was kept within single digits for the last time in 1996).

Damn. I hate when people mess with Wiki. Last time I checked, it showed way closer margins for 06 and 08.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-04: Doc Hastings retiring on: February 14, 2014, 04:42:04 am
I'd love for Maureen Walsh to run. I'm sure she'd have little chance of winning the primary, unfortunately. I'm also sure the Ds will put up a candidate. They actually got within a few points of taking out Hastings in 2006 and within 10 points in 2008.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-04: Doc Hastings retiring on: February 13, 2014, 05:57:07 pm
WA-9 is actually the least white district, since it's a minority-majority district (barely). It's 48.1% non-hispanic white. WA-4 is 56.1% non-hispanic white (37% hispanic), while WA-7 is 72% non-hispanic white.

Fun fact: Inslee represented this seat from 92-94. Hastings beat him in the 94 Republican Revolution. Inslee moved to Western Washington and returned to congress with his win in the 1st district in 98.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: February 12, 2014, 04:44:42 am


Washington hasn't executed a prisoner in over 10 years. It's hardly a hot-button issue here.
Uhh, that's not true. Cal Coburn Brown, 2010?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: February 01, 2014, 08:57:29 pm
In recent years, McKenna's wins as AG are notable - especially his re-election in 2008.
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Counties where the largest community is more republican on: December 09, 2013, 05:17:16 am
Island County, WA.

Oak Harbor is the largest city, which holds a naval base. I believe it voted for McCain, but either way, it's much more Republican than the rest of the county that went for Obama twice.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '13: Mike McGinn is a GMO on: November 13, 2013, 12:42:28 am
Yeah, all the state stuff came first. I think the mayor's race was actually on the back of the ballot, though I could be wrong.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '13: Mike McGinn is a GMO on: November 09, 2013, 05:25:03 am
In general the late King County votes are very liberal leaning. Which explains the closening of Sawant-Conlin and the Public Financing proposition. As to why Murray-McGinn has narrowed? No clue. Comcast "scandal"?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '13: Mike McGinn is a GMO on: November 05, 2013, 06:30:13 pm
I'm in agreement with you guys on all the winners. Though I think the Eyman thing may be a bit closer.
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