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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: Today at 11:23:03 am
Publicunofficial, I personally like your second map more. Even if it ends up splitting the Hispanic COI, I think it's got better contiguity. Argh, why cant the populations on each side of the mountains balance out!!

I think Dhingra will win. This is a district where tying Englund to Trump should work (though obviously the focus should be on local issues).

Here's my rambling #hottakes look on the race:

As for mayor/council, I'm really unsure. I got to shake hands with Durkan yesterday and will get to attend a small campaign event for Capitol Hill businesses tomorrow. I think that will cement my Farrell support and inform me of her electoral chances (not expecting her to convert me). But she's got the money, part of the establishment, and the "moderate" vote on her side, so perhaps that's enough of a base to get her to the November ballot.

I think Hasegawa really limits Oliver's chance of clinching the second spot, with his southeast Seattle base. Granted, Oliver's support is fairly evenly spread over the city, but it most certainly is higher in minority communities, concentrated around Hasegawa's turf. Or maybe I'm placing to much value on Hasegawa's sway in south Seattle.

That leaves Farrell, McGinn, and Moon. My biggest concern is that these three are going to equally split the establishment progressive vote - Seattle's largest voting bloc - and be eliminated from the runoff, particularly if my Oliver-Hasegawa theory is wrong. I'd say Moon is the least likely of the three to make it onward; her campaign's momentum feels like it's stalled. And who is her base as an activist? At least McGinn and Farrell have geographic bases. McGinn of course has name recognition... for better or worse, while 100k Seattleites have seen Farrell on the ballot thrice (though once unopposed).

I'm not enthused about a Durkan - Oliver runoff, but it would likely be landslide Durkan.
If not taken by Oliver, the second spot goes to perhaps McGinn or Farrell. In which case Durkan is slightly favored against McGinn and tossup against Farrell.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic on urbanist chances. After all, the deciding issues should be housing, homelessness, and transit. At least, I hope those are the issues... You never know.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: June 23, 2017, 03:01:10 pm
I get what you're trying to do with your Yakima Hispanic district, but it makes for a terrible Clark-Columbia-Skamania-northern Yakima suburbs seat (though it looks nice visually). On the topic of aesthetics, I think it would be better to have Hanford given over to the lime green district, even it totally surrounds the Richland/Kennewick one.

Also, I don't buy those polls at all. There's no way Farrell would do so poorly - she has a built in base - the 104k (2010) residents in her NE Seattle district. Hasegawa doesn't really have this, as the 11th has roughly only 17k residents in Seattle, but he'll do well in the south end regardless, as his home is on Beacon Hill.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: June 14, 2017, 01:06:10 pm
Our Cranky favorite's interview with Durkan: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/06/12/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-jenny-durkan/

Notice in the comments that former mayor Greg Nickels noted a small factual correction. Got a kick out of that.

Durkan seems decent. I'm thinking we'll see a Durkan-Farrell runoff. Despite my initial thinking, Farrell has managed to increase her profile and pick up support from many urbanists/transit supporters, which represent a significant chunk of the primary vote.

We wondered who would replace Farrell in the state house: yesterday longtime local Democratic leader Javier Valdez was appointed by the King County Council. The other two choices were Nigel Herbig, a Kenmore City Councilmember and legislative aide to Farrell, and Melissa Taylor, a former software engineer who cofounded a group that trains Democratic women to run for office.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: June 06, 2017, 12:46:31 pm
I have no idea who will replace her, some anonymous misc. Seattle D. :p

The 1st LD was once more marginal than it is now, particularly downballot. Perhaps Finn Hill/Kingsgate were more reliably D, so they got tacked on. Kirkland will have around 60% of the population needed for an LD, so perhaps will see the city kept together come 2022.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Crumpets's two-year AMA on: June 06, 2017, 12:38:16 pm
Yes, it was Mary and Ileana's seminar. I also went on Ileana's 2013 Romania-only program. Had a blast both times. If you get the chance to go back to Romania, you need to go to Transylvania (Brasov/Sibiu/Sighisoara/Cluj). It's much more interesting and beautiful than Constansa.

Does Mary have a copy? You should contact her. I found it for sale https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiVk6zc0KnUAhVL2GMKHQWrAzYQFggkMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.trigon-film.org%2Fen%2Fmovies%2FBlind_Dates&usg=AFQjCNEm4_eN2nCH9xqWU7Jb1wxxTq8VTw&sig2=b7mnXFP50qDrE3NtDAgArA. Archil was the ultimate guide. We loved him.

Favorite excursion in Georgia? I think I get your brief visit to Azerbaijan- David Gareja monastery? Did you get to visit up at all near Kazbegi? Roska/Ketrisi/Sno River valley? That was my favorite part of the trip.

Glad you loved Sarajevo, it's a beautiful place, albeit difficult for me to visit- particularly, as I found out, when doing so alone. I haven't been to Zagreb, but it's on my list with Ljubljana. Belgrade really surprised me when I visited some family friends there this summer.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread on: June 06, 2017, 11:30:26 am
Washington, please!

Very cool.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Crumpets's two-year AMA on: June 01, 2017, 09:26:06 pm

If you graduated high school in 2012, you probably know a couple people I went to middle/elementary school with. Smiley

Yes. In 2012 I went to Turkey, in 2014 I went to Russia (Sochi), and last summer I did a tour through Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia, Azerbaijan (briefly), Russia (Moscow), Croatia, and Bosnia.

Haha, I did graduate in 2012, so probably

I was also in Bosnia/Croatia (and Serbia) in early August visiting some relatives. Would be funny if our timing overlapped. And in 2015 I was in Romania/Bulgaria/Georgia (UW study abroad seminar).

What did you think of your time in the Balkans? I'd love to hear your opinion on the differences you saw.
And isn't Georgia the best? I'm itching to go back.

Any must travel to places?

8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Crumpets's two-year AMA on: June 01, 2017, 01:59:17 pm
I'm a Garfield grad. Interesting that you almost went to St. Andrews. One of my best friends went to U Prep and then there. You two would've probably been in the same class.

My major was Econ with a minor in Urban Design & Planning. I really wanted to do a REECAS minor too, but ran out of time. Only needed 5 more credits to get it- the . I also regret not having majored in linguistics from the onset of school, but alas I wasted too many underclassman quarters getting mediocre grades in pre-engineering classes.

That's right- it's called Task Force. Both of your papers sound fascinating. Makes me almost miss writing research papers. What's your favorite/least favorite part of the process?
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Crumpets's two-year AMA on: May 31, 2017, 07:00:12 pm
You seem like a Seattle local, what high school did you graduate from?

Also, it looks we're both '16 UW grads, if my math guestimating is right.

Do you plan on returning to the area post-MA/job experience? Or does your field relegate you to a life in the DC area?

What was your "senior thesis" on (whatever JSIS calls it)?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Brand New Congress (w Justice Dems) Candidate Details Thread (New in WA) ! on: May 31, 2017, 04:09:39 pm
I kind of have to roll my eyes at this. DelBene fits her 55-45 D district perfectly as a rich ex-techie.
Smith is a Progressive, in all but name. He's a diligent legislator and has compiled a steadily more liberal record, as surprise, his district became more liberal!

The same can be said about Kilmer, who's future is pretty bright, and surprise, also fits his D+6 district.

Heck is an establishment backbencher, but is fairly inoffensive (also pretty unknown, Kilmer always outperforms him even though their districts have a similar PVI).

Larsen is really the only one deserved of a primary. He's pretty meh (both politically and personally) in very safe, D+10 district. If they challenge any of them, it should be him.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 31, 2017, 12:42:43 pm
I'm really liking a number of Farrell's responses: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/05/31/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-jessyn-farrell/

That's perhaps the most in-depth interview I've seen with any of the mayoral candidates. Durkan so far has not bothered to really stake out her positions. I'd like a similar interview.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 31, 2017, 11:44:08 am
Jessyn Farrell, D-46, will announce her resignation, adding yet another WA leg special.

She's doing so to focus on her bid for Seattle mayor. McGinn made a nice pro-transit, "let's work with Sound Transit to get LR built faster" statement that certainly tugged at my heart strings. But I still question his efficacy if elected. Doubtful he's learned how to play politics and work with the city council.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Population Growth Patterns in Metro Areas, 2000-16 on: May 30, 2017, 12:04:28 pm
Would love to see the Seattle metro area. Awesome map!

Not a metro area, but western ND would be cool to see.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 25, 2017, 04:30:26 pm
I believe the 9th is as goofy as it is in order to be an MM district. Laudable, but difficult to draw well in a state as white as Washington. An all-Seattle 7th would be ideal, I agree

Oh, I know. I think it's ridiculous. Especially since Adam Smith is only in his early 50s (!!) and will likely be there for another 15+ years.

I believe it was Slade Gorton that masterminded the 9th, thus securing the 8th for Reichert. Then they masqueraded the district as a "minority-majority" to both the other Ds/independents on the redistricting council and the public at large.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 25, 2017, 02:41:30 pm
By this point I'm confident that census growth patterns will favors Dems in the next round of redistricting. Seattle proper is growing at nearly twice the pace of the state rate, entitling it to early half of an additional LD by this point. Tacoma should pass Spokane by decade's end. Interesting that The Valley is growing at faster clip than Spokane despite being a hellhole.

I don't know if the 9th will be kept as it is, but it's looking more than likely that Seattle will almost perfectly fit one district. I'd like the original 7th to come back. As for LDs, it'll be interesting to see just how overpopulated the 43rd and 36th are.

Spokane's growth seems to have picked up though. So perhaps the dynamic will change by 2020.
16  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: May 25, 2017, 12:10:19 am
Thanks for the data scrounging! Very happy to see Seattle reach over 700k. Back in 2010, no one thought the city would reach that mark before 2020, let alone 2016!
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 23, 2017, 10:20:22 pm
Issaquah Council member Tola Marts (D) will challenge Dave Reichert in WA-08. I have no idea who he is or his quality as a candidate.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Census population estimates 2011-2019 on: May 23, 2017, 01:18:15 pm
Prediction: Seattle tops 700k. It'll be tough, but July 2015-2016 saw around ~7,500 units delivered, a similar, if not slightly greater amount than the previous period. 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019 should be nuts though, with ~10k and ~13k expected in 2017 and 2018 respectively.

I'd also like to see if growth has picked up in Tacoma and Spokane.

Things to look for:
Phoenix passes Philadelphia (4k difference)
San Francisco passes Jacksonville (4k difference)
Columbus passes Indianapolis (3k difference)
DC passes Detroit (5k difference), as Detroit is still declining
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: May 22, 2017, 01:02:28 pm
What's John Barrow up to? Could he make a come back? Or is the GA-12 too far gone for the Ds?
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 15, 2017, 02:01:30 pm
Glad to have read Erica Barnett's interview with Nikkita Oliver: https://thecisforcrank.com/2017/05/15/the-c-is-for-crank-interviews-nikkita-oliver/

It definitely focused on land use and development, which helped to distill some of Oliver's views. More nuanced than I originally thought, but definitely not on the side I lean (desire for some ambiguous form of rent control, more community process (really??), emphasizing blaming the housing crisis on developers (and speculative market forces) over restrictive zoning). Good to see she's willing to tackle gentle density (mother-in-law units, accessory dwelling units, duplexes, etc.) in affluent single-family neighborhoods, though she didn't really lay down any specifics.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 12, 2017, 10:54:26 am
Well, the clown car grows: Jessyn Farrell is officially in: http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/washington-state-rep-jessyn-farrell-joins-crowded-race-for-seattle-mayor/

I like her a lot, but as I said earlier, she's remarkably unknown. Perhaps STB and Seattle Subway have enough influence to get her name out, which could in turn get The Urbanist on her side, idk.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 11, 2017, 06:25:13 pm
1) Still Cary Moon, who's an actual urbanist.
2) Durkan, she could rise/fall depending on her housing/transit views
3) McGinn, what does Keep Seattle even mean??? That kind of worries me.
4) Oliver, I like her as a candidate and her unequivocal BLM agenda, I just wish she could hop aboard the housing train
5) Hasegawa, no, just no.

Candidates not in:

Harrell: light weight, no.
Gonzalez: she's building her name and chops, I agree with KS, she's got a bright future. Would love to see her run in 4 or 8 years.
Walkinshaw: Dream candidate. He's FBBPW (Flawless Beautiful Brady Pinero Walkinshaw)
Farrell: who now? That's what most people probably think. I imagine she'd do a fine job.
Pederson: yes, but I don't think he has any desire to leave Olympia
Kim: Negative chance. What does a LM even do? Help craft policy?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 11, 2017, 04:04:30 pm
Anyone know when the filing deadline is? Curious how long Durkan and Walkinshaw have to decide whether to pull the trigger

Harrell (ugh) might run, too

Filing deadline is May 19th for all King County elections this year.

Harrell will probably run. He came in 3rd last time, and with Burgess retiring Harrell will be forced to hold the title of most conservative voice on the council (Not a way to gain popularity in Seattle). I'd imagine he would be able to pick up a lot of Murray voters, certainly more than McGinn can.

If Harrell doesn't get in, I'd expect Lorena Gonzalez or Hyeok Kim to get in and run on continuing Murray's policies. I'd like to see Jamie Pedersen or Brady Walkinshaw get in, but I haven't seen their names being tossed around much outside of here.

I'd love if Mike O'Brien ran, but I think McGinn eats into his niche too much.

Lorena wouldn't be bad. I'm still a little peeves over her arena vote and subsequent "sports fans hate women!" victory lap on Samantha Bee but she's the best of the ladies on the council. The risk is somebody worse getting her seat this fall. Just happy Port shill Bagshaw isn't running Tongue

O'Brien has gotten better. He and McGinn def overlap a bit, though O'Brien would be superior. He gets the balance between equity and urbanism better than most of the Sawant camp

And Jenny Durkan is running for mayor: http://crosscut.com/2017/05/former-u-s-attorney-jenny-durkan-is-running-for-mayor/

I don't think Harrell will run. He knows he can't win AND he is really not a strong candidate. He barely won his last election against a nobody candidate (who to her credit, turned out to be pretty good).

Lorena likely won't get in, but she'd be a decent candidate. O'Brien definitely isn't going to jump in with his buddy - McGinn - running.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 09, 2017, 01:44:45 pm
She's an urban planner/landscape architect:

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/04/19/25084739/cary-moon-is-running-for-mayor-of-seattle-an-interview-with-the-brand-newest-murray-challenger
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 09, 2017, 01:32:05 pm
1. Walkinshaw (now's his time)
2. Cary Moon
3. McGinn
4. Oliver
5. Hasegawa
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