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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: May 24 Washington state prediction thread on: May 21, 2016, 09:18:16 pm
Sanders: 55%
Clinton: 45%

Trump: 64%
Cruz: 17%
Kasich: 16%
Carson: 3%
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 21, 2016, 09:12:06 pm
Darcy Burner filed to run for the House in LD5 #2. Jason Ritchie, another failed WA-8 candidate is running against incumbent Jay Rodne (R) in LD5 #1. Lol

Failed WA-1 candidate, John Koster is running for the House in LD39 #2.

Will Steve Litzow finally be taken down?
Also, Chris Hurst is retiring, so R+1 right there in the House.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET) on: March 26, 2016, 02:55:49 pm
Dang Bernie got 89% in Wahkiakum County.
Thats a county with probably 50-100 total votes. It's a tiny county.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-7: McDermott retiring on: January 21, 2016, 06:04:21 pm
Pramila Jayapal, State Senator of District 37 is now running. I like her a lot, but this is a tough choice for progressives as there are now three very solid options. Still wondering if Sawant will run.

http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2016/01/21/23457062/guest-editorial-heres-why-im-running-for-congress
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-7: McDermott retiring on: January 04, 2016, 01:00:29 pm
Apparently there are rumbles that Mayor Ed Murray wants to run. Also, I would totally not be surprised if Kshama Sawant gets in the race.

I don't think Socialist Alternative has the resources to mount a serious campaign for the U.S. House.  Even if Sawant ran and managed to make the run-off, it'd probably wind up like the Frank Chopp vs. Jess Spear race in 2014.

That's true, but this is SA's one shot of getting on the ballot in a serious way in a district that could actually potentially elect their candidate. I think they're ambitious enough to run a candidate, whether its Jess Spear or Sawant.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-7: McDermott retiring on: January 04, 2016, 12:40:08 pm
Apparently there are rumbles that Mayor Ed Murray wants to run. Also, I would totally not be surprised if Kshama Sawant gets in the race.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Uber-liberal Jim McDermott (WA-7) gets primary challenge from the left on: December 03, 2015, 01:51:28 pm
On what issue has McDermott not been a progressive on?  It just seems hard to see any kind of attack on him from the left.

That recent car mortgage House vote? I know my FB feed was up in arms about the fact that McDermott voted for it and it supposedly allows lenders to discriminate against people of color.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Uber-liberal Jim McDermott (WA-7) gets primary challenge from the left on: December 03, 2015, 01:46:32 pm
I like Brady Wilkinshaw, but boy is he going to burn some bridges by doing this. I'm guessing McDermott will retire after 2016 if Brady can get more than like 35% of the vote.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Predict Margin (%) for LA-Governor on: November 21, 2015, 12:28:05 pm
Edwards: 52.7
Vitter: 47.3
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 03, 2015, 11:47:00 pm
Looks like Carol Gregory (D) is down 6,075-7,110 to Teri Hickel(R).
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: May 19, 2015, 06:40:24 pm

District 9
Citywide Position

Alon Bassok - Urban planner

Bill Bradburd - Community activist, opponent of micro-housing
Lorena González - Former civil rights attorney, legal counsel to the mayor
Omari Tahir-Garrett - Africatown activist, Sawant ally, focused on gentrification
Thomas Tobin - Some dude
Alex Tsimerman - Local nutcase

Another vacant race, this race will likely come down to a battle between Gonzalez and Bradburd. Gonzalez is backed by Mayor Ed Murray, and has also gained praise as a immigration activist and for her representation of a Latino man who was beaten and threatened by Seattle Police in 2010.


I took a class taught by Alon at the UW! I had no idea he's running. He's the urbanist in that race and he'll certainly be getting my vote.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: May 12, 2015, 02:38:11 pm
Bill Byrant won't seek re-election to the Seattle Port Commission.

Bryant has statewide aspirations, and might run against Inslee in 2016. He's likely retiring from the commission to avoid losing re-election, which might hurt his statewide credentials.

There are definitely better candidates than he. Hasn't Reichert been rumored to be planning on challenging Inslee? Either way, Inslee should be able to beat both.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV-03: Tomblin considering on: April 28, 2015, 10:37:08 pm
Why Jenkins and not Mooney? Mooney almost lost in 2014!

Yeah, I was gonna say why not run against the very weak carpetbagger guy, but it appears Tomblin running there would neutralize that. Still probably a better bet than WV-03 though.

I think people are forgetting That Tomblin owes both his gubanatorial wins thanks to WV-03, and more his home area in Logan County. IIRC, he got like 90% and then 85% there. If there's anyone who still has deep enough connections to create such turnout- it's him.

Of course, i'm no local, so I have no idea how opinions of Tomblin have evolved since 2012, nor do I know if he no longer has a turnout machine that powerful...
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: March 26, 2015, 04:23:18 pm
Looks like King County saw an increase of 33,000 putting it at about 2,080,000 inhabitants. At least half that growth is probably from the city of the Seattle, so I imagine Seattle's estimate will be around 667,000. When are the city estimates due?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 06:39:48 pm
I was just looking through WA's gubernatorial results going back into the 80s and I saw something weird.

How is it that Booth Gardner won Cowlitz county with 62% of the vote in 1984, but lost it narrowly in 1988, while sweeping the state? Even Garfield county voted for him (though I imagine Garfield County was not as Republican as it is now). Now that I'm looking, Wahkiakum County also swung significantly against Gardner.

Also why did Dixy Lee Ray get 60%> in Benton and Franklin counties in 1976?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 06:20:35 pm
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.

You might be confusing Oakville with Oak Harbor.

Yarrow Point in the top ten is interesting.

Yup- what a brain fart.

Alcon- Great map!
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 04:55:32 pm
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win the Louisiana Runoff? on: November 05, 2014, 06:51:06 pm
I'm rooting for Landrieu and I hope she somehow pulls out another victory, but alas she's probably going to lose by at least 55-45.

Are Landrieu's runoff chances better with an R-held senate, as is the case, or with a D-held senate?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 01:12:22 am
I think Hickenlooper has got this. Boulder only 84% in, Denver only 74% in, and he's down by 13,000.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 09:44:13 pm
I think Barrah is done... 59% in and he's still down by a lot.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 07:25:27 pm
Lol, with 10% in IN-7, Mayo is leading.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 06:09:45 pm
Fox News shows exit poll NH Sen Brown 50-Shaheen 49
Wow, that's close. The first of many presumbly very close exit polls to come.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Lock/Upset/Bold Prediction on: November 03, 2014, 11:40:24 pm
Lock: Parnell wins in AK
Upset: Schauer barely beats Snyder in MI
Bold Prediction: Hassan wins by at least 10
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Final Prediction Thread on: November 03, 2014, 11:34:08 pm
AK-GOV:
51% Parnell
48% Walker

AZ-GOV:
53% Ducey
46% DuVal

AR-GOV (R Pick-Up):
54% Hutchison
43% Ross

CO-GOV:
49% Hickenlooper
48% Beauprez

CT-GOV:
49% Malloy
48% Foley

FL-GOV (D PICK-UP):
49% Crist
46% Scott

GA-GOV (RUN-OFF):
49% Deal
47% Carter

IL-GOV:
51% Quinn
46% Rauner

KS-GOV (D Pick-Up):
49% Davis
46% Brownback

ME-GOV (D Pick-Up):
45% LePage
46% Michaud
8% Cutler

MD-GOV:
53% Brown
45% Hogan

MA-GOV (R Pick-Up):
49% Barker
47% Coakley

MI-GOV (D Pick-Up):
48% Snyder
49% Schauer

MN-GOV:
54% Dayton
44% Johnson

NH-GOV:
55% Hassan
45% Havenstein

PA-GOV (D Pick-Up):
58% Wolf
42% Corbett

RI-GOV:
48% Raimondo
41% Fung
9% Healey

WI-GOV:
50% Walker
48% Burke
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Final US House of Representatives Predictions on: November 03, 2014, 11:20:30 pm
Safe R:
NC-7 (Open)

Likely R:
AR-4 (Open)
Jeff Denham (CA-7)
David Valadao (CA-21)
Rodney Davis (IL-13)
Jackie Walorski (IN-2)
Steve King (IA-1)
MI-8 (Open)
Kevin Cramer (ND-AL)
Steve Pearce (NM-2)
Tom Reed (NY-23)

NY-21 (Open)
UT-4 (Open)


Lean R:
Mike Coffman (CO-6)
Dan Benishek (MI-1)
Tim Walberg (MI-7)
NJ-3 (Open)
VA-10 (Open)
WV-2 (Open)


Tossup/Tilt R:

Ron Barber (AZ-2)
Ami Bera (CA-7)

Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Brad Schneider (IL-10)

IA-3 (Open)
Michael Grimm (NY-11)


Tossup/Tilt D:
AR-2 (Open)
Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1)
Scott Peters (CA-52)

Steve Southerland (FL-2)
Bill Enyart (IL-12)
IA-1 (Open)
Rick Nolan (MN-8)

Lee Terry (NE-2)
Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1)
Tim Bishop (NY-1)
Dan Maffei (NY-24)
Nick Rahall (WV-3)


Lean D:
Raul Ruiz (CA-26)
Julia Brownley (CA-36)
John Barrow (GA-12)
HI-1 (Open)
ME-02 (Open)
Ann Kuster (NH-2)
Sean Maloney (NY-18)
Pete Galego (TX-23)


Likely D:
Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9)
CA-31 (Open)
Emily Esty (CT-5)
Patrick Murphy (FL-18)
David Loesback (IA-2)
Bill Foster (IL-11
Colin Peterson (MN-2)

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