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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: August 17, 2016, 05:19:27 am
Some notes on competitive races:

LD 30 (South King County, Federal Way + parts of Auburn):
Mike Pellicciotti (D) leads incumbent Rep Linda Kochmar (R) 52.3% - 47.7%. (yikes...)
Kristine Reeves (D) leads incumbent Rep Teri Hickel (R) 50.16% - 49.84%.

LD 5 (Sammamish ($$$) and other $$ - $$$ exurbs bleeding into the Cascades):
Rep Chad Magendanz (R) challenges incumbent Senator Mark Mullett (D), but trails 50.69% - 49.31%.
Incumbent Rep Jay Rodne (R) leads Jason Ritchie (D), who lost in WA-8 in 2014, 54.4% - 45.6%.
Vacated rep seat by Magendanz is being fought by Darcy Burner (D), ran for WA-8 in 06 and 08 and Paul Graves (R). The two way D vote is 53.72% - 46.28% (Hello Rep Burner).
This district is going to see one of the biggest swings away from Romney in WA and if Rs are going to be pulled down anywhere, its here.

LD 10: Whidbey Island + some farms
Incumbent Senator Barbara Bailey (R) leads 51.48% - 48.52% the two-way D vote. I have no idea if Angela Homola (D) is a good candidate, but this will be close.

LD 26: Gig Harbor and parts of the Kitsap Peninsula
Larry Seaquist (D) might just make a comeback here, he was defeated in 2014 in the other House position. The two-way R vote narrowly beats out the D vote: 50.29% (R) - 49.71% (D).

LD 28: Tacoma suburb Lakewood + JBLM + some seriously downscale exurbia
A competitive district that I believe Obama has won twice...
Incumbent senator Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) 53.62% - 46.38%.
Incumbent Rep Dick Muri (R) leads Mari Leavitt (D) 52.88% - 47.22%.
Incumbent Rep Christine Kilduff (D) leads 50.85% - 45.88% (R) - 3.28% (L)

LD 17: Outer parts of Vancouver and suburban Clark County
Senator Don Benton is retiring and Lynda Wilson (R) and Tim Probst (D), both former or current Reps from the 17th are vying for the spot. It'll be very close. 50.11% (R) - 49.89% (D). (A must win for Ds if they want to take back the senate).
In the race to replace Wilson, Sam Kim (D) and Vicki Kraft (R) lead a very split field. 51.86% (D) - 48.14% (R).

LD 41: Mercer Island + Bellevue
The ultimate must win for Ds and a district that will be very inhospitable to Trump. The combined D vote in the house was ~65%. It's going to be hard for Incumbent senator Steve Litzow (R) to win.
Lisa Wellman (D) leads Litzow 48.79% - 47.29% - 3.92% (L).

Finally, guaranteed R pickup in the House from LD 31 (the last rural farming parts of king/pierce), where Christopher Hurst is retiring.
JD Rossetti (D), appointed to LD 19 (Southwest WA + Coast) did not make it through a very crowded primary. Ds are still safe here, getting ~56% of the vote.
Guy Palumbo (D) upset Rep Luis Moscoso (D) in the race for the senate seat in LD 1. Safe D though, 60% D - 40% R in the primary.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: When will the GOP win the race for governor in WA again? on: August 09, 2016, 03:53:42 am
^Exactly. The only way the GOP wins in 2020 is a messy Ferguson - Constantine battle.
I haven't heard much about Ferguson wanting to run for Governor, but it's no secret Dow Constantine does (he's the current and popular King County Executive).

Unless Inslee is very popular in 2018-2019 (which I really doubt he will be), he'll retire.

Also, another thing that's helped keep the governor's seat in D control has been the success of Republicans in the state legislature. There would be more D fatigue if the R's didn't keep it so close there.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: August 03, 2016, 03:18:13 am
All the Senate Ds combined gets 49.54% of the vote in Walla Walla county. Will be interesting to see if Murray can pick it up.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe, in one word, your reaction if you wake up to this map on Nov 9th on: July 05, 2016, 09:28:33 am
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Dan Sullivan seeks to join Dan Sullivan as Alaska's Senator on: June 10, 2016, 12:49:36 pm
How about 3 candidates with the same name in Romania: http://www.politico.eu/article/romanian-election-pits-three-men-with-same-name-against-each-other-vasile-cepoi-draguseni/
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Washington 7th District Congressional Primary on: June 03, 2016, 01:31:23 pm
I agree that'll it probably be Jayapal vs. Walkinshaw. However, McDermott has a geographic advantage in that neither of the other two come from his West Seattle/Burien district county council district.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe a Romney '12 voter who supported Hillary in the primaries on: June 02, 2016, 12:15:54 am
East King county. Wealthy, socially liberal, establishment holdouts who are now turned off by both Trump's social and economics views.

http://crosscut.com/2016/05/trump-may-be-doing-permanent-damage-to-washington-gop/?platform=hootsuite

Though, I guess, you could say it doesn't count since it was non-binding.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: State legislatures 2016 on: June 02, 2016, 12:00:22 am
I'm not sure if I've asked this before, but why is Washington's state legislature so close when overall the state is pretty heavily Democratic in other races, particularly statewide? Democrats have lost seats in the State House in every election since 2008, which is just something I find a bit odd given how Democratic the state is overall and their relatively large turnout elections. Democrats only have a 1-seat majority now and if they don't buck the current 8-year trend, they'll effectively lose control of the State House and thus the entire legislature.

I know little about WA politics, but my guess would be it's in a similar situation to that of the New York Senate: conservative rural areas are overrepresented in the legislature and urban areas are underrepresented.  Maybe one of our WA posters can enlighten us.

Toss-up - Connecticut Senate

I don't think so, Tim.

Yeah, and CT House as only Lean D?  Democrats will likely pick up seats in both in a Presidential year.

They're probably banking on Malloy's ridiculously low approval numbers.  But even then, the popularity of a sitting governor has minimal impact on legislative seats.

Yeah, in a Presidential year, it won't matter a bit.  The Presidential race will drive all downballot.races.

I would argue that the GOP will take the Washington State House this cycle because of the presidential race. Two Lean R seats are open that the Democrats are defending. And with the GOP essentially keeping all their tough seat incumbents in the election they are likely to keep their 48 seats at least.

The State Senate the GOP is mainly playing defense, but with most of the GOP incumbents that are in tough districts staying in the Democrats are going to have a tough time taking the seats. Especially since these candidates already won with Obama on the ballot. With an open presidential election with plenty of disarray they all can easily win re-election.

Uhhh, with Trump on top of the ticket, there's going to need to be a mighty amount of ticket splitting  to get the Republicans to pick up the house and even, I think, hold the senate.

Basically, RIP republicans of East King county and even potentially South King county: http://crosscut.com/2016/05/trump-may-be-doing-permanent-damage-to-washington-gop/?platform=hootsuite

I don't think Steve Litzow will survive... in a district that voted well over 60% D in the primary. There aren't very many other vulnerable Dems in the senate. The House is a bit more fluid, in that there are plenty of Ds and Rs in marginal seats.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: May 24 Washington state prediction thread on: May 21, 2016, 09:18:16 pm
Sanders: 55%
Clinton: 45%

Trump: 64%
Cruz: 17%
Kasich: 16%
Carson: 3%
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: May 21, 2016, 09:12:06 pm
Darcy Burner filed to run for the House in LD5 #2. Jason Ritchie, another failed WA-8 candidate is running against incumbent Jay Rodne (R) in LD5 #1. Lol

Failed WA-1 candidate, John Koster is running for the House in LD39 #2.

Will Steve Litzow finally be taken down?
Also, Chris Hurst is retiring, so R+1 right there in the House.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET) on: March 26, 2016, 02:55:49 pm
Dang Bernie got 89% in Wahkiakum County.
Thats a county with probably 50-100 total votes. It's a tiny county.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-7: McDermott retiring on: January 21, 2016, 06:04:21 pm
Pramila Jayapal, State Senator of District 37 is now running. I like her a lot, but this is a tough choice for progressives as there are now three very solid options. Still wondering if Sawant will run.

http://www.thestranger.com/blogs/slog/2016/01/21/23457062/guest-editorial-heres-why-im-running-for-congress
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-7: McDermott retiring on: January 04, 2016, 01:00:29 pm
Apparently there are rumbles that Mayor Ed Murray wants to run. Also, I would totally not be surprised if Kshama Sawant gets in the race.

I don't think Socialist Alternative has the resources to mount a serious campaign for the U.S. House.  Even if Sawant ran and managed to make the run-off, it'd probably wind up like the Frank Chopp vs. Jess Spear race in 2014.

That's true, but this is SA's one shot of getting on the ballot in a serious way in a district that could actually potentially elect their candidate. I think they're ambitious enough to run a candidate, whether its Jess Spear or Sawant.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-7: McDermott retiring on: January 04, 2016, 12:40:08 pm
Apparently there are rumbles that Mayor Ed Murray wants to run. Also, I would totally not be surprised if Kshama Sawant gets in the race.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Uber-liberal Jim McDermott (WA-7) gets primary challenge from the left on: December 03, 2015, 01:51:28 pm
On what issue has McDermott not been a progressive on?  It just seems hard to see any kind of attack on him from the left.

That recent car mortgage House vote? I know my FB feed was up in arms about the fact that McDermott voted for it and it supposedly allows lenders to discriminate against people of color.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Uber-liberal Jim McDermott (WA-7) gets primary challenge from the left on: December 03, 2015, 01:46:32 pm
I like Brady Wilkinshaw, but boy is he going to burn some bridges by doing this. I'm guessing McDermott will retire after 2016 if Brady can get more than like 35% of the vote.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Predict Margin (%) for LA-Governor on: November 21, 2015, 12:28:05 pm
Edwards: 52.7
Vitter: 47.3
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 03, 2015, 11:47:00 pm
Looks like Carol Gregory (D) is down 6,075-7,110 to Teri Hickel(R).
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: May 19, 2015, 06:40:24 pm

District 9
Citywide Position

Alon Bassok - Urban planner

Bill Bradburd - Community activist, opponent of micro-housing
Lorena González - Former civil rights attorney, legal counsel to the mayor
Omari Tahir-Garrett - Africatown activist, Sawant ally, focused on gentrification
Thomas Tobin - Some dude
Alex Tsimerman - Local nutcase

Another vacant race, this race will likely come down to a battle between Gonzalez and Bradburd. Gonzalez is backed by Mayor Ed Murray, and has also gained praise as a immigration activist and for her representation of a Latino man who was beaten and threatened by Seattle Police in 2010.


I took a class taught by Alon at the UW! I had no idea he's running. He's the urbanist in that race and he'll certainly be getting my vote.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: May 12, 2015, 02:38:11 pm
Bill Byrant won't seek re-election to the Seattle Port Commission.

Bryant has statewide aspirations, and might run against Inslee in 2016. He's likely retiring from the commission to avoid losing re-election, which might hurt his statewide credentials.

There are definitely better candidates than he. Hasn't Reichert been rumored to be planning on challenging Inslee? Either way, Inslee should be able to beat both.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV-03: Tomblin considering on: April 28, 2015, 10:37:08 pm
Why Jenkins and not Mooney? Mooney almost lost in 2014!

Yeah, I was gonna say why not run against the very weak carpetbagger guy, but it appears Tomblin running there would neutralize that. Still probably a better bet than WV-03 though.

I think people are forgetting That Tomblin owes both his gubanatorial wins thanks to WV-03, and more his home area in Logan County. IIRC, he got like 90% and then 85% there. If there's anyone who still has deep enough connections to create such turnout- it's him.

Of course, i'm no local, so I have no idea how opinions of Tomblin have evolved since 2012, nor do I know if he no longer has a turnout machine that powerful...
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: March 26, 2015, 04:23:18 pm
Looks like King County saw an increase of 33,000 putting it at about 2,080,000 inhabitants. At least half that growth is probably from the city of the Seattle, so I imagine Seattle's estimate will be around 667,000. When are the city estimates due?
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 06:39:48 pm
I was just looking through WA's gubernatorial results going back into the 80s and I saw something weird.

How is it that Booth Gardner won Cowlitz county with 62% of the vote in 1984, but lost it narrowly in 1988, while sweeping the state? Even Garfield county voted for him (though I imagine Garfield County was not as Republican as it is now). Now that I'm looking, Wahkiakum County also swung significantly against Gardner.

Also why did Dixy Lee Ray get 60%> in Benton and Franklin counties in 1976?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 06:20:35 pm
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.

You might be confusing Oakville with Oak Harbor.

Yarrow Point in the top ten is interesting.

Yup- what a brain fart.

Alcon- Great map!
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 04:55:32 pm
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.
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