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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: May 19, 2015, 06:40:24 pm

District 9
Citywide Position

Alon Bassok - Urban planner

Bill Bradburd - Community activist, opponent of micro-housing
Lorena González - Former civil rights attorney, legal counsel to the mayor
Omari Tahir-Garrett - Africatown activist, Sawant ally, focused on gentrification
Thomas Tobin - Some dude
Alex Tsimerman - Local nutcase

Another vacant race, this race will likely come down to a battle between Gonzalez and Bradburd. Gonzalez is backed by Mayor Ed Murray, and has also gained praise as a immigration activist and for her representation of a Latino man who was beaten and threatened by Seattle Police in 2010.


I took a class taught by Alon at the UW! I had no idea he's running. He's the urbanist in that race and he'll certainly be getting my vote.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: May 12, 2015, 02:38:11 pm
Bill Byrant won't seek re-election to the Seattle Port Commission.

Bryant has statewide aspirations, and might run against Inslee in 2016. He's likely retiring from the commission to avoid losing re-election, which might hurt his statewide credentials.

There are definitely better candidates than he. Hasn't Reichert been rumored to be planning on challenging Inslee? Either way, Inslee should be able to beat both.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV-03: Tomblin considering on: April 28, 2015, 10:37:08 pm
Why Jenkins and not Mooney? Mooney almost lost in 2014!

Yeah, I was gonna say why not run against the very weak carpetbagger guy, but it appears Tomblin running there would neutralize that. Still probably a better bet than WV-03 though.

I think people are forgetting That Tomblin owes both his gubanatorial wins thanks to WV-03, and more his home area in Logan County. IIRC, he got like 90% and then 85% there. If there's anyone who still has deep enough connections to create such turnout- it's him.

Of course, i'm no local, so I have no idea how opinions of Tomblin have evolved since 2012, nor do I know if he no longer has a turnout machine that powerful...
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Mid-2014 county population estimates out tomorrow, March 26 on: March 26, 2015, 04:23:18 pm
Looks like King County saw an increase of 33,000 putting it at about 2,080,000 inhabitants. At least half that growth is probably from the city of the Seattle, so I imagine Seattle's estimate will be around 667,000. When are the city estimates due?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 06:39:48 pm
I was just looking through WA's gubernatorial results going back into the 80s and I saw something weird.

How is it that Booth Gardner won Cowlitz county with 62% of the vote in 1984, but lost it narrowly in 1988, while sweeping the state? Even Garfield county voted for him (though I imagine Garfield County was not as Republican as it is now). Now that I'm looking, Wahkiakum County also swung significantly against Gardner.

Also why did Dixy Lee Ray get 60%> in Benton and Franklin counties in 1976?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 06:20:35 pm
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.

You might be confusing Oakville with Oak Harbor.

Yarrow Point in the top ten is interesting.

Yup- what a brain fart.

Alcon- Great map!
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: November 29, 2014, 04:55:32 pm
Surprised that Oakville voted so heavily against it. Interesting to see how sharp the split is between Langley and Oakville.

A bit surprised not to see Bellingham on the top list too.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win the Louisiana Runoff? on: November 05, 2014, 06:51:06 pm
I'm rooting for Landrieu and I hope she somehow pulls out another victory, but alas she's probably going to lose by at least 55-45.

Are Landrieu's runoff chances better with an R-held senate, as is the case, or with a D-held senate?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 01:12:22 am
I think Hickenlooper has got this. Boulder only 84% in, Denver only 74% in, and he's down by 13,000.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 09:44:13 pm
I think Barrah is done... 59% in and he's still down by a lot.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 07:25:27 pm
Lol, with 10% in IN-7, Mayo is leading.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 US Congressional Election Results on: November 04, 2014, 06:09:45 pm
Fox News shows exit poll NH Sen Brown 50-Shaheen 49
Wow, that's close. The first of many presumbly very close exit polls to come.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Lock/Upset/Bold Prediction on: November 03, 2014, 11:40:24 pm
Lock: Parnell wins in AK
Upset: Schauer barely beats Snyder in MI
Bold Prediction: Hassan wins by at least 10
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Official Final Prediction Thread on: November 03, 2014, 11:34:08 pm
AK-GOV:
51% Parnell
48% Walker

AZ-GOV:
53% Ducey
46% DuVal

AR-GOV (R Pick-Up):
54% Hutchison
43% Ross

CO-GOV:
49% Hickenlooper
48% Beauprez

CT-GOV:
49% Malloy
48% Foley

FL-GOV (D PICK-UP):
49% Crist
46% Scott

GA-GOV (RUN-OFF):
49% Deal
47% Carter

IL-GOV:
51% Quinn
46% Rauner

KS-GOV (D Pick-Up):
49% Davis
46% Brownback

ME-GOV (D Pick-Up):
45% LePage
46% Michaud
8% Cutler

MD-GOV:
53% Brown
45% Hogan

MA-GOV (R Pick-Up):
49% Barker
47% Coakley

MI-GOV (D Pick-Up):
48% Snyder
49% Schauer

MN-GOV:
54% Dayton
44% Johnson

NH-GOV:
55% Hassan
45% Havenstein

PA-GOV (D Pick-Up):
58% Wolf
42% Corbett

RI-GOV:
48% Raimondo
41% Fung
9% Healey

WI-GOV:
50% Walker
48% Burke
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Final US House of Representatives Predictions on: November 03, 2014, 11:20:30 pm
Safe R:
NC-7 (Open)

Likely R:
AR-4 (Open)
Jeff Denham (CA-7)
David Valadao (CA-21)
Rodney Davis (IL-13)
Jackie Walorski (IN-2)
Steve King (IA-1)
MI-8 (Open)
Kevin Cramer (ND-AL)
Steve Pearce (NM-2)
Tom Reed (NY-23)

NY-21 (Open)
UT-4 (Open)


Lean R:
Mike Coffman (CO-6)
Dan Benishek (MI-1)
Tim Walberg (MI-7)
NJ-3 (Open)
VA-10 (Open)
WV-2 (Open)


Tossup/Tilt R:

Ron Barber (AZ-2)
Ami Bera (CA-7)

Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Brad Schneider (IL-10)

IA-3 (Open)
Michael Grimm (NY-11)


Tossup/Tilt D:
AR-2 (Open)
Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1)
Scott Peters (CA-52)

Steve Southerland (FL-2)
Bill Enyart (IL-12)
IA-1 (Open)
Rick Nolan (MN-8)

Lee Terry (NE-2)
Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1)
Tim Bishop (NY-1)
Dan Maffei (NY-24)
Nick Rahall (WV-3)


Lean D:
Raul Ruiz (CA-26)
Julia Brownley (CA-36)
John Barrow (GA-12)
HI-1 (Open)
ME-02 (Open)
Ann Kuster (NH-2)
Sean Maloney (NY-18)
Pete Galego (TX-23)


Likely D:
Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9)
CA-31 (Open)
Emily Esty (CT-5)
Patrick Murphy (FL-18)
David Loesback (IA-2)
Bill Foster (IL-11
Colin Peterson (MN-2)

16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your Final Predictions about Senate battleground states. (with %) on: November 03, 2014, 11:10:18 pm
Alaska

Begich - 49%
Sullivan - 47%

Arkansas

Pryor - 46%
Cotton - 52%

Colorado

Udall - 47%
Gardner - 49%

Georgia

Perdue - 48%
Nunn - 49%

Perdue - 52%
Nunn - 48%

Iowa

Ernst - 49%
Braley - 48%

Kansas

Orman - 48%
Roberts - 50%

Kentucky

McConnell - 52%
Grimes - 47%

Louisiana

Landrieu - 46%
Cassidy - 38%
Maness - 12%

Landrieu - 48%
Cassidy - 52%

New Hampshire

Shaheen - 52%
Brown - 48%

North Carolina

Hagan - 49%
Tillis - 47%
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Lock, Upset, Bold Prediction on: November 03, 2014, 10:57:17 pm
Lock: Roberts wins KS
Upset: Nunn gets over 50% in GA
Bold Prediction: Begich wins by more than 4% and 50% in AK.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Americans Moving Back Into Suburbs on: May 26, 2014, 04:00:19 am
Not in Seattle, thank goodness!

If only more states required comprehensive plans and urban growth boundaries...
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Former FL Gov. Reubin Askew dead at 85 on: March 14, 2014, 01:46:39 am
Why did his '88 Senate run flop?
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-04: Doc Hastings retiring on: February 15, 2014, 12:07:48 am

Our Campaigns corroborates my numbers -- Hastings has not faced a close race since 1996.

In other news, the first Republican candidate -- Janea Holmquist Newbry -- has just announced her candidacy.

I don't doubt you! I'm just peeved that I've been duped by Wikipedia.

I'm sure Didier will announce soon. Out of the potential candidates, I definitely *like* Newbry the best.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-04: Doc Hastings retiring on: February 14, 2014, 05:34:30 pm
I'd love for Maureen Walsh to run. I'm sure she'd have little chance of winning the primary, unfortunately. I'm also sure the Ds will put up a candidate. They actually got within a few points of taking out Hastings in 2006 and within 10 points in 2008.

Wikipedia says Hastings won 60-40 in 2006 and and 63-37 in 2008; basically, this is a noncompetitive district, though it used to be up until the mid-1990s (Hastings was kept within single digits for the last time in 1996).

Damn. I hate when people mess with Wiki. Last time I checked, it showed way closer margins for 06 and 08.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-04: Doc Hastings retiring on: February 14, 2014, 04:42:04 am
I'd love for Maureen Walsh to run. I'm sure she'd have little chance of winning the primary, unfortunately. I'm also sure the Ds will put up a candidate. They actually got within a few points of taking out Hastings in 2006 and within 10 points in 2008.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WA-04: Doc Hastings retiring on: February 13, 2014, 05:57:07 pm
WA-9 is actually the least white district, since it's a minority-majority district (barely). It's 48.1% non-hispanic white. WA-4 is 56.1% non-hispanic white (37% hispanic), while WA-7 is 72% non-hispanic white.

Fun fact: Inslee represented this seat from 92-94. Hastings beat him in the 94 Republican Revolution. Inslee moved to Western Washington and returned to congress with his win in the 1st district in 98.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: February 12, 2014, 04:44:42 am


Washington hasn't executed a prisoner in over 10 years. It's hardly a hot-button issue here.
Uhh, that's not true. Cal Coburn Brown, 2010?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See on: February 01, 2014, 08:57:29 pm
In recent years, McKenna's wins as AG are notable - especially his re-election in 2008.
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