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December 07, 2016, 07:15:21 pm
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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: In which major city did Hillary receive the highest % of white voters? on: Today at 11:54:07 am
Probably San Francisco

Definitely not, Seattle is more white and gave Clinton a larger margin (a first!).

I think it's between Seattle (~88-8.44) and DC.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 06, 2016, 02:04:07 pm
Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

You are right- it is in 2017. The Ds should gain control of the Senate then. It'll be (23+1) - 25?

RI, amazing maps!
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 06, 2016, 12:36:19 am
Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: December 04, 2016, 03:49:18 pm
I had been working for a long time on a mega-gerrymander with tons of snake-like states, and, just when I had Hillary down to the mid-40s (confined entirely to parts of the SF Bay Area, LA County, and NYC), I accidentally hit the "see how arbitrary our system is link instead of the move button!  Now, it's all gone!

Something like this?:

I am a monster. 493-45


5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 01, 2016, 08:17:32 pm
Now that the count is final, my Seattle precincts:

Clinton: 341 (87.2%)
Trump: 37 (9.5%)
Johnson: 10 (2.6%)
Stein: 3 (.7%)

Voter turnout was very good, returned ballots: 402/425.

and my other one:

Clinton: 349 (91.4%)  LOL 95.9-4.1, in the two-way
Stein: 15 (3.9%)
Trump: 8 (2.1%)
Johnson: 7 (1.8%)
Castle: 2 (.5%)
La Riva: 1 (.3%)

Turnout is typical of a university area with a high turnover of addresses. 399/548.

It looks like that CD precinct that initially cast no votes for Trump now has him with 1 vote. That's his worst in the city.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 01, 2016, 02:50:11 pm
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/

That's too bad. I bet he'll be GOP nominee in '20. It's his potential appointments to the ST Board that should be the concern (and why I supported Tolbert)

Agreed. Also, what's with the color change?

Alcon, RI, or anyone else, can you make a swing map of Skagit? I think it would look interesting.

Also RI, awesome map. Did Clinton even win Longview?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 01, 2016, 12:26:40 pm
Bruce Dammeier won 52-48 or so. I was rooting for Talbert. :/
8  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: November 30, 2016, 08:15:44 pm
I am a monster. 493-45

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Single Most shocking county result? on: November 22, 2016, 10:11:26 pm
I'm still shocked that Elliott County swung as hard as it did. 70-26 R from 49-47 D.

Also Trumbull County, OH. Went from 60.5-37.5 D to 51-44 R. Or for that matter, Mahoning and Lackawanna counties. I expected swings to Trump, but it's still shocking to see how huge they were.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 21, 2016, 11:41:25 pm
Also, for the first time since the 1920s (?) Pacific and Grays Harbor counties voted R for governor. It's actually pretty amazing how Trump was able to drag generic R up in Southwest WA, particularly in Wahkiakum and Cowlitz.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 21, 2016, 11:22:27 pm
With just 22k votes left to count in the state, I think it's safe to say that there's no change in the house (+2 Ds in LD30, +1 R in LD31, +1 R in LD19) and +1 D in the senate (LD41).

12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 18, 2016, 02:44:18 am
My registered address is in very white, increasingly very wealthy part of northeast Seattle:

Clinton: 236 (88.7%)
Trump: 24 (9.0%)
Johnson: 5 (1.9%)
Stein: 1 (.4%)
Write-in: 2
Blank: 2

total ballots returned so far: 270, though President would be out of 266. This precinct was 81.5-17.5 for Obama in 2008. Murray "only" got 84% and Inslee 81%. Walkinshaw got 52.8%.

Ha, I used to live right down the street from you on the other side of 65th.  Nice area, super boring.

Mine was 80-14, a big swing from 77-22 in 2012.

Edit: Also, just FYI for people looking at King County numbers, the ones posted are just from Election Night.  Turnout was fine!

Yeah, boring is right, although a nice place to grow up. Surprised we voted to the left of Crumpet's Ballard precinct though.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 17, 2016, 02:04:49 am
My registered address is in very white, increasingly very wealthy part of northeast Seattle:

Clinton: 236 (88.7%)
Trump: 24 (9.0%)
Johnson: 5 (1.9%)
Stein: 1 (.4%)
Write-in: 2
Blank: 2

total ballots returned so far: 270, though President would be out of 266. This precinct was 81.5-17.5 for Obama in 2008. Murray "only" got 84% and Inslee 81%. Walkinshaw got 52.8%.

Where I live in the University District, Trump tied in 3rd lol:

Clinton: 158 (91.9%)
Johnson: 5 (2.9%)
Trump: 4 / Stein: 4 (2.3 % / 2.3%)
La Riva: 1 (.6%)
Write-in: 2
Blank: 4

Total: 178 counted so far, vote out of 172.

Where did you find this data?

You need to know your precinct number/code, but you enter it in here: https://electionsdata.kingcounty.gov/Government/Nov-2016-Election-night-abstract-by-precinct/kk5t-cjez and scroll all the way down as Pres/Senate are at the bottom.

If you don't know your precinct, you can here: http://www.kingcounty.gov/depts/elections/elections/maps/find-my-districts.aspx
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 16, 2016, 03:40:50 pm
I agree, but that's their only bench. Though I guess Hill was non-political before he ran.

Are there any precincts in Seattle with 0 votes for Trump? Probably not, but I wonder...
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How did your precinct vote? on: November 16, 2016, 03:20:25 pm
My registered address is in very white, increasingly very wealthy part of northeast Seattle:

Clinton: 236 (88.7%)
Trump: 24 (9.0%)
Johnson: 5 (1.9%)
Stein: 1 (.4%)
Write-in: 2
Blank: 2

total ballots returned so far: 270, though President would be out of 266. This precinct was 81.5-17.5 for Obama in 2008. Murray "only" got 84% and Inslee 81%. Walkinshaw got 52.8%.

Where I live in the University District, Trump tied in 3rd lol:

Clinton: 158 (91.9%)
Johnson: 5 (2.9%)
Trump: 4 / Stein: 4 (2.3 % / 2.3%)
La Riva: 1 (.6%)
Write-in: 2
Blank: 4

Total: 178 counted so far, vote out of 172.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 16, 2016, 02:04:39 pm
I think the only person the Rs could run and win with is King County Council member Kathy Lambert. I have no idea if she would want to, considering she left the state house for her current position.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 14, 2016, 06:27:45 pm
I've been following late returns and they've definitely been less pro-Clinton than the election day vote, even in King County. That's a change from the norm, isn't it?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Democrats only control a record low of 5 states now on: November 14, 2016, 04:52:39 pm
oh god, Krazen is back
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How did Rod Blum survive? on: November 14, 2016, 04:49:10 pm
Trump won MN-7 by... 30.

^ Yeah, from the SOS site:

CD1: 53/38 Trump
CD2: 46/45 Trump
CD3: 50/40 Clinton
CD4: 61/30 Clinton
CD5: 73/18 Clinton
CD6: 58/33 Trump
CD7: 61/31 Trump
CD8: 54/38 Trump
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 13, 2016, 01:41:35 pm
Well, third party + right-ins = 9.2% right now in King County. That's pretty high.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 12, 2016, 01:56:35 pm
Alcon, I'm excited for your or realisticidealist's maps.

Some early observations: I'm surprised Port Orchard and Woodway voted for Trump. Also, I don't think Obama ever did as well as Clinton around Gig Harbor/Pierce County part of the Kitsap Peninsula.

It's hard to tell, but did Clinton manage to carry Monroe?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 11, 2016, 09:51:22 pm
My goodness, Litzow is losing by 5.5%, meanwhile LD41 is voting 68.5-25 Clinton, that's stunning.



23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 11, 2016, 09:24:26 pm
you mean to tell me Litzlow survived a D+40 district for a long time? wow that's impressive.

Not quite, more like D+25 (I think it was 62-36 Obama?). This year it'll likely be a D+35 to D+40 district. King county is currently voting 72-21 (!!!) for Clinton (was 69-29 in 2012), and this seat is the epicenter of wealthy, educated Rs abandoning Trump.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 11, 2016, 08:10:12 pm
Looking towards the legislature:

There are still some 600k votes left to be counted, so results can still be swayed (particularly in King(200k)/Pierce(90k)/Snohomish(80k)).

House:
Ds are currently at a very tenuous +1. It could shift to no net change or even up to +4.

Of particular note, LD30 (Federal Way) just voted out both of its incumbent Rs, so D+2 there. R+1 in nearby LD31 (rural farms of King and Pierce), where longtime "independent D" incumbent Chris Hurst retired.

LD19, on the coast, swung massively to Trump. He most likely won this traditionally conservadem district. Anyway, Dean Takko upgraded to the senate and so his house seat was left open. It's currently a D hold, but oh so barely. Teresa Purcell (D) leads by 83 votes. Takko and the other D incumbent, Blake, won easily, but under-performed.

Then we have LD5 (Issaquah, North Bend, Snoqualmie), where both house seats are very close, Jay Rodne (R, inc) leads Jason Ritchie (D) by 3%, though Ritchie originally lead. Idk where the votes are in this district, but its not likely this will flip. Graves (R) leads Burner (D) in the open seat by 5.5%.

Finally, there's R-held, open seats in LD17 (newly annexed Vancouver and other PDX suburbs), where Vicki Craft (R) leads Sam Kim (Independent D) by 3%.

Senate
Litzow finally succumbed to the fundamentals of LD41 (Mercer Island, Bellevue, Sammamish), that most likely will have voted D+40 for Clinton. Lisa Wellman (D) leads by 5.5%.

Chad Magendanz (R), tried to upgrade his LD5 house position, but it looks like he's fallen short and trails incumbent Mark Mullet (D)by 2.5%.

The only other really competitive race is in LD28 (parts of Tacoma, Lakewood, JBLM), where incumbent Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) by 6%.

So D+1, but also keep in mind, I think the Ds will also pick up Andy Hill's seat, which won't be very competitive with a Trump presidency (another district that voted massively for Clinton).
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Remaining votes (Update: about 7 million ballots left to count nationwide) on: November 10, 2016, 03:31:32 pm
Washington probably has nearly a million yet to be counted.

844.586 as of today.

http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/Turnout.html

That seems to miss around 100k ballots that King has since received. They're up to 1,050,000 or so, but only counted 680k.
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