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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: DCCC Top Congressional Recruits in 2018 on: April 26, 2017, 06:13:10 pm
WA-03: Probably Monica Stonier? Dean Takko is unlikely to run, and all the other strong Democratic candidates in this area live in Aberdeen which is in WA-06.

WA-08: Mark Mullet or Pat Sullivan

How popular are Newhouse and McMorris Rodgers? Are they at all beatable?

Newhouse is definitely not beatable. And if a Clint Didier or some other non-random R candidate runs in the primary, it could easily lead to the an R-R general election for the third time in as many elections.

McMorris Rodgers is entrenched and fairly popular. It would take a mighty wave to unseat her, though she's already being challenged by a decent candidate (a Spokane city councilman).
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: April 22, 2017, 05:43:00 pm
Eastern Washintonians, how much of this Stranger article on "turning Eastern Washington blue" - with Spokane council member Ben Stuckart - is sensationalism?

http://www.thestranger.com/news/2017/04/19/25083375/meet-the-man-who-could-turn-eastern-washington-blue
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: April 21, 2017, 12:57:39 pm
That being said, if she gets a kook like John Grant in the runoff she has a good shot. Mosquera would probably beat her

I'm actually starting to think it might be Grant's race to lose, honestly.

Ugh

Really? That's not the feeling I get. Sure, he has the most name recognition, but as a candidate he's less well liked than during his 2014 run. Idk, it's early on and there's been no polling.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: April 20, 2017, 01:52:03 pm
Fremont Brewing Owner Sara Nelson Joins Race for City Council: https://www.seattlemet.com/articles/2017/4/20/fremont-brewing-owner-sara-nelson-joins-race-for-city-council

5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: April 17, 2017, 12:21:39 pm
Mike McSchwinn just tweeted "Keep Seattle. McGinn 2017"

This may surprise many considering my fairly centrist views but I'd be very happy to see McGinn back in the Mayor's office. For as much of an abrasive weirdo as he is he had serious backbone on urbanism and the arena.
Agreed, he's got my support, perhaps. Let's see what he runs on.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: April 07, 2017, 12:56:23 pm
If Murray becomes nonviable, I expect Walkinshaw to run on an urbanist platform. He's got nothing to lose, and would be my ideal candidate (Rob Johnson needs to stay on the council, he's doing good work. Plus, he seems more like a legislator than an executive).

I don't dislike Nikkita Oliver, but her comments on supporting 25% manditory affordable housing in all developments is scary- unless you want to see Seattle reach SF levels of affordability. She also seems to be focusing more on the affordable requirement side than the more important upzone side, which further puts in to doubt her commitment to actually tackling the affordable housing crisis.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: April 06, 2017, 06:01:29 pm
Yikes. This could be big... I hope this doesn't mean Nikkita Oliver comes out as the front runner in whatever happens next.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: March 23, 2017, 07:28:45 pm
If Auburn and Kent go the way of the Eastside, then LD-40 may very well be on LD-44's track in 10 years from now. Fain, a well-liked moderate incumbent, much like Litzow, keeps hanging on until the eventual political tide knocks him out.

Also, O'Bann needs to be seriously challenged. He only won by 6-7 points in a D+14 district. I think Christine Kilduff would make for a good challenger.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2016 Census County Estimates on: March 23, 2017, 02:07:44 pm
Denver "only" added 13k people last year, which means Seattle may continue to hold a tenuous lead in population.

Interesting in that Denver has more geographic room to grow

My guess is that Denver is running out of room for new single family homes and is, like much of Seattle, capacity restricted with much of the city zoned only for single family homes (also a good chunk of Denver is airport and the scrub land that leads to it), but unlike Seattle, it hasn't seen the upzones of dense areas yet.

Quote
- Clark County, NV (Las Vegas) now 12th most-populous count, up from 14th; passed slower-growing San Bernardino County, CA & King County, WA (Seattle

Funny enough, King County stayed in 13th, its Clark and San Bernardino that have changed places.
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2016 Census County Estimates on: March 23, 2017, 01:21:12 pm
Denver "only" added 13k people last year, which means Seattle may continue to hold a tenuous lead in population.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: March 17, 2017, 12:39:53 pm
The '13 continually cracked me up.

'17 could be something related to car tabs in honor of the Republican anti-transit crusade against Sound Transit and Seattle.

Or perhaps something about our future governor, Dow Constantine, and his immaculate hair.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: March 14, 2017, 12:07:12 pm
Agreed. As of now, there aren't any candidates that can take him out, but that doesn't mean that wont change. I don't think Oliver will be that person, but who knows. Seattle's thrown out it's last 2 incumbent mayors over issues that in retrospect, were pretty silly and less serious than homelessness and housing affordability.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: February 22, 2017, 05:21:33 pm
Burgess is not running for re-election btw.

He's a great moderating voice on the council and is a reliable pro-density vote, which makes up for some of his less than great stances on lets say the tunnel and panhandling.

I don't really know any of the other candidates other than Jon Grant, who I dislike greatly.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Super wealthy towns that heavily swung against Donald Trump on: February 17, 2017, 04:58:43 pm
I wonder what the swing was in Medina, Yarrow Point, Hunts Point, Clyde Hill, Woodway, and Union/Novelty Hill, WA.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: February 10, 2017, 05:47:46 pm
I've always thought DelBene would follow Cantwell, except that she's 55, to Cantwell's 58.
Which is probably too old, considering Murray will likely run again in 2022, and I imagine so will Cantwell in 2024.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: February 10, 2017, 12:34:52 pm
Bold Prediction: Bob Ferguson will be Washington's next governor.

Still think Dow is likelier, IMO. Ferguson would clear the field if, say, Cantwell or Murray ever hung it up

I agree. But I also really want to see Dow elected, so I may be biased.

There's also Derek Kilmer who I think will end up in the Senate eventually.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: February 01, 2017, 01:33:47 pm
Honestly, what he does is just for power. By becoming that decisive vote, he's been able to have way more influence since, what 2010, than if he was some D-caucusing member.

Though that's going to end in 2018, I think. With both better than 50% odds of picking up Hill's vacant seat and Miloscia's. Does Sheldon switch parties?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: What if your House seat opened up? on: December 20, 2016, 04:45:34 pm
That would be an incredibly short amount of time in Congress for Jayapal. Tongue If that were to happen, maybe Walkinshaw would give it another go.

100% both McDermott and Walkinshaw would battle it out. Maybe Sawant too?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: White Nationalist Richard Spencer May Run for Congress on: December 20, 2016, 02:01:19 pm
So, does Denise Juneau run again? Apparently she's being considered for UM's top executive job.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 12, 2016, 07:51:46 pm
Rebecca Saldaņa chosen to replace Jayapal in the LD37. I believe she works for the Puget Sound Sage and comes from a similar background as Jayapal, social activism (environmental/equity vs. immigration).

She'll face fierce competition come the special/election time.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 09, 2016, 01:01:27 pm
Ugh, I hope not. I'm no big fan of McMorris-Rodgers, but she was always competent. I don't like Baumgartner. If he doesn't run, does Parker?

Pakootas again for the Ds?
22  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: In which major city did Hillary receive the highest % of white voters? on: December 07, 2016, 11:54:07 am
Probably San Francisco

Definitely not, Seattle is more white and gave Clinton a larger margin (a first!).

I think it's between Seattle (~88-8.44) and DC.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 06, 2016, 02:04:07 pm
Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.

I believe the special is in 2017, though I may be wrong.

Either way, I rate it Lean D pending the candidates

You are right- it is in 2017. The Ds should gain control of the Senate then. It'll be (23+1) - 25?

RI, amazing maps!
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: December 06, 2016, 12:36:19 am
Dino Rossi has been appointed to serve out the rest of Hill's term. However he is explicitly not running for reelection in 2018.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: December 04, 2016, 03:49:18 pm
I had been working for a long time on a mega-gerrymander with tons of snake-like states, and, just when I had Hillary down to the mid-40s (confined entirely to parts of the SF Bay Area, LA County, and NYC), I accidentally hit the "see how arbitrary our system is link instead of the move button!  Now, it's all gone!

Something like this?:

I am a monster. 493-45


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