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1476  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WaPo:Trump to Meet With Kissenger on: May 17, 2016, 12:11:39 pm
Kissinger is what, 92?
1477  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Stop overestimating the intelligence of the average voter. Why Trump could win. on: May 17, 2016, 12:09:42 pm
Uh, you have two New York liberal democrats over 70. They are both establishment.
1478  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can Trump reach out to the black community? on: May 17, 2016, 12:08:37 pm
Quote
The gentleman is from Australia. He is confusing Latinos with penguins, though he probably knows less about either than about the dialectical variation of Latin spoken in German universities during the 15th century.

I know solid R TX latina Catholics who despise Trump.
1479  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: PredictIt has Kaine & Gingrich as leaders for VP, Sanders not far behind??? on: May 16, 2016, 08:11:29 am
Who is buying Cruz?
1480  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump and Putin on: May 16, 2016, 08:08:56 am
Trump's going to go with unilaterally dismantling NATO?
1481  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was choosing Philadelphia for the Democratic National Convention a masterstroke? on: May 16, 2016, 08:00:42 am
When compared to choosing Salt Lake City?
1482  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Even supporters agree: Clinton has weaknesses as a candidate. What can she do? on: May 16, 2016, 07:38:19 am
Quote
Hillary hasn't done quite that bad.

She has lost:

WA, OR, AK, HI, ID, WY, MT, UT, CO, KA,
NE, ND, MN, IA, WI, IL, MO, LA, MS, AL,
GA, SC, NC, VA, MD, DE, VT, CT, ME,

29 states to Obama.

WA, OR, ID, WY, UT, CO, NE, KA, OK, MN, WI,
MI, IN, WV, VT, RI, NH, ME, AK, HI

20 states to Bernie. So 49 states lost so far.
1483  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would the GOP deal with a TRUMP loss? on: May 16, 2016, 04:35:22 am
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The popularity of Bernie and Trump has been astounding.

Bernie, yes. Trump, no.
1484  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Even supporters agree: Clinton has weaknesses as a candidate. What can she do? on: May 16, 2016, 04:24:13 am
She's lost 48 states in contested primaries so far. I believe that's far and away the record for a successful nominee. Reagan seems to have lost 43 states in contested primaries, over the '68, '76, and '80 primaries. Reagan probably would have the record still with a full slate in 1968.
1485  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would the GOP deal with a TRUMP loss? on: May 16, 2016, 03:52:38 am
As for that Map, if Trump loses AZ, he loses NC, and he won't win PA, VA, OH or FL.

That would take 90 percent Democrat Hispanic voters (about what the polls are saying he gets), and 55 percent turnout. A real possibility. It also turns GA and TX into tossup states.

That gets us to 358 - 180.

With college whites at 53 percent for Trump and 63 percent turnout, and a drop in the non college turnout to 46 percent, I get the map in my predictions.
1486  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can Trump reach out to the black community? on: May 16, 2016, 03:49:27 am
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Trump will be yugely successful if he can get the Latino vote on his side.

Yes, improving from 11 to 12 percent will surely see him nominated.
1487  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would the GOP deal with a TRUMP loss? on: May 16, 2016, 03:47:48 am
*sigh*.

Republicans nominated McCain - weak candidate, got 52 percent of GOP primary voters, Romney - weak candidate, got 52 percent of GOP primary voters, and now Trump who will finish with less than half.

We keep being told that the problem is social conservatives, yet we've not won since Bush who was a social conservative.

Trump's going to get smoked. And the GOP will still blame social issues for their loss and argue that they need a liberal to beat a liberal.
1488  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are the Clinton-Trump Battleground states? on: May 15, 2016, 04:28:00 pm
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Republicans have controlled the Michigan state government for decades

Hahaha, blaming the problems on Republicans? That's rich.
1489  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are the Clinton-Trump Battleground states? on: May 15, 2016, 03:26:23 pm
Quote
Lol. Lyin' Ted lost, Trump won. Just get over it already.


 
 
1490  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Attempt to guess Trump's VP shortlist (based on these list of clues) on: May 15, 2016, 02:43:34 pm
Trump/Newt is a hilarious ticket.
1491  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Turnout? on: May 15, 2016, 02:41:30 pm
With 10 percent going Trump? That will be hard to do.
1492  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state is Trump less likely to carry? on: May 15, 2016, 02:39:01 pm
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If a state has 5 million voters, of which 3.5 million are Democrats, and 1.5 Republicans, and have a primary where only 20% of each party votes, does it matter how well a candidate does with 20% of 1.5 million Republicans in a state of 3.5 million Democrats? No. Because come general election time, they will still be outvoted by millions of Democrats.

It can give us relative strengths, which is what this thread is about. The primary factor actually gets cancelled out when comparing primary vs primary.
1493  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state is Trump less likely to carry? on: May 15, 2016, 08:42:11 am
Quote
Primary. Results. DON'T. Corralate. To. General. Election. Strength.

I'm surely wishing against all odds, but can everyone PLEASE stop trying to use this utterly false relation until Election Day? thank you!

Trump is weaker out west, so is Hillary...
1494  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are the Clinton-Trump Battleground states? on: May 14, 2016, 02:48:02 pm
Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Texas, Utah and Alaska.
1495  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state is Trump less likely to carry? on: May 14, 2016, 02:44:57 pm
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What are you defining as 'West'? I don't really consider the states from MN-LA as west even though they are west of the Mississippi, but you appear to by your statement of Carter winning 6 states in the West.

By that standard, most winning Democrats for the foreseeable future won't do this except in a landslide. B. Clinton was an exception due to Perot. Obama won 9/24, and even if Hillary adds MO, AZ, and AK that would still put her at half 12/24. The other states are extremely Republican and are highly unlikely except a chance at Montana and a very small chance at Utah if the Mormons rebel against Trump.

Anything west of the Mississippi. The last a Democrat did well in the west was LBJ. That's a long time ago.
1496  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your reaction if this turned out to be the actual results? on: May 14, 2016, 02:41:30 pm
Even Atlas won't accept that posting.
1497  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state is Trump less likely to carry? on: May 14, 2016, 07:17:52 am
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I disagree with anyone who says both states are gone

Nope, VA is just too solidly Democrat and CO is gone because of Trump's weaknesses out west.

Since AZ and NM were admitted, only three presidents have failed to take a majority of the states out west. Kennedy, Carter, and Obama (2x).

The worst western performance was Carter, winning just 6 states.
1498  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state is Trump less likely to carry? on: May 14, 2016, 06:48:46 am
CO. Trump's only state he won west of the Mississippi is Arizona. I'm not sure we've ever seen that divide before in American politics.
1499  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Donald and Melania Trump be happy living in the White House.......... on: May 13, 2016, 04:48:54 pm
I didn't realize he'd renamed Mar-e-lago the white house.
1500  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can Trump reach out to the black community? on: May 13, 2016, 04:18:41 pm
Man, this is why I post here. I can always count on incisive, biting comments.
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