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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1476  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CRUZ CALLS TRUMP THE "PC POLICE" on: April 22, 2016, 07:51:26 pm
I'm always amused by the argument that what you look like is more important than who you are.
1477  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 03:00:22 pm
Then let's keep fighting for Cruz and save the damn party! Cheesy
1478  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 02:50:55 pm
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He'll be lucky to win West Virginia IMO.

WV is about as solid as it gets on the R side. Moreso than Utah.
1479  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 02:40:53 pm
the Map I posted earlier is now a serious possibility for Trump. With MT a swing state and losing all the south, save Alabama.

It would be hilarious if Trump had the 'anti-southern' strategy.
1480  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 02:33:28 pm
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I got TX to flip with 54% Latino turnout at 11%, and that's with a rise in turnout of pro-Trump uneducated white voters, and a drop in turnout of anti-Trump educated white voters.

Yep, it's a problem now. And lots of these folks are prolife.
1481  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 02:18:02 pm
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According to the 538 tool, TX flips if 64% of Latinos turn out and go 89-11 against Trump.  In the last election, Latino turnout was 48%.

I just said that.

Trump needs about 15 percent to secure Texas and Arizona. 11 percent puts TX in jeopardy, if Latino turnout is up, or white turnout continues to drop.
1482  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Campaign: CT and IL are in play against HRC this fall on: April 22, 2016, 02:14:57 pm
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Trump hasn't pivoted. He's just distancing himself from the Akin wing.

Unlike Romney, Romney never touched the platform. Trump's pivoted, although I agree, he's always held these positions.

I see a Hillaryslide in November if Trump wins.
1483  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Campaign: CT and IL are in play against HRC this fall on: April 22, 2016, 02:08:20 pm
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Pro-life is important to factions of the Republican party and going sideways on that issue will cost them a lot of votes. They can't really afford to continue splintering their coalition like that - At least not at this current time.

Exactly. And Trump's pivot isn't going to draw him any voters.
1484  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: If Trump wins the Presidency, what are his chances of impeachment? on: April 22, 2016, 02:07:00 pm
Zero percent. He's not winning.
1485  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Cruz failing? on: April 22, 2016, 01:12:14 pm
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So you gonna vote for Hillary?

Nah. Constitution party if they nominate Trump. Republicans have insisted they don't need my vote for years now.
1486  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: raise taxes on the wealthy & let trans people switch bathrooms on: April 22, 2016, 01:10:12 pm
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I'm not sure backing the anti-transgender bill will help him in the general

If the base stays home, he loses. Simple as that. Why would the base come out to vote for someone who's out of step with their values?

Or are you going to be like Trump's campaign and assume that NY is now a tossup battleground state?
1487  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Tubman shouldn't be $20 cuz she's a black woman, $2 "more appropriate" on: April 22, 2016, 12:32:54 pm
Sheesh, Jackson is an important president by any stretch. Probably 4th behind Washington, Lincoln and Jefferson in the 19th century.

I have no problem with him on the 20 dollar bill. Tubman is just pandering.
1488  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: raise taxes on the wealthy & let trans people switch bathrooms on: April 22, 2016, 12:26:59 pm
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The transgender position is smart because it neutralizes a Democratic attack line, not because it's winning over any one.

Not if he's looking at his polling among his base. It's a polarizing issue that he's on the wrong side of. Just another example of bad advice that he's getting from his campaign.
1489  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: raise taxes on the wealthy & let trans people switch bathrooms on: April 22, 2016, 12:21:19 pm
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Trump will lose more conservatives than he could possibly make up with liberals or moderates.

Pho, of course, is 100 percent correct here. He may even lose enough conservatives to lose the nomination outright. Pivotting to the GE and losing because he thought he'd won. Wow.
1490  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 12:18:34 pm
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Turnout should be more concerning than the margin here.

Both are concerning. 11 percent puts AZ and TX into play. Needless to say, Trupm can't win without either.
1491  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Cruz failing? on: April 22, 2016, 11:36:14 am
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Well, when you have the head of the RNC saying this, even to this day, it's hard to really back up that narrative.

I've been saying it since December. Trumpbots latched onto it so that their man can be the man of the 'populist' republicans. What hooey.

Trump's finally shown his colors.
1492  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 11:32:17 am
Nope. That's the map I get, sadly. Trump's now put AZ and TX into play with his sh**tty numbers.
1493  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 11:25:36 am
64 percent turnout by Hispanics and 89 percent democrat is enough for Trump to lose Texas, without adjusting other sliders. State flips are NC, AZ and TX.

Map I get with adjustments has:

AK, ID, MT, ND, SD, WY, UT, NE, KY, WV, KS, AR, TN and OK.

39 to 59 Republican to Democrat. Swing states are MT, AK and AL.
1494  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Cruz failing? on: April 22, 2016, 11:18:10 am
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Do you think the GOP establishment turned to Cruz out of desperation to stop Trump after all the messy scandals in the weeks after Rubio dropped out, and is now realizing that they truly hate him and are just gonna let it play out?  That's the impression I'm getting.

Again, I'm seeing the same game we've seen with McCain as with Romney. Same story, same results. Cruz was never the darling of the 'establishment' despite the claims of Trumpbots. Trump was always their candidate.

I predicted that back in December. And people seem shocked now that all the republican media is trying to 'close out' the nomination in his favor.

I'm sure the democrats are laughing their ass off that they have Trump as their opponent in the fall.

As soon as he announced he wanted to remove the prolife plank, he'll have every establishment dollar. The sad thing is that many of the former conservatives have already sold themselves.
1495  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: To tell the truth I like Ted Kruz on: April 22, 2016, 11:15:56 am
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If some conduct is sinful, should it necessarily be outlawed? If not, what is the metric for deciding what sinful conduct should be outlawed, and what not, based on reverting to the Bible as the ultimate authority or whatever?

Lots of conduct is sinful but doesn't need to result in a criminal conviction. This isn't a difficult question. If you look at the common law, you'll get your answers here - as to what conduct should or should not result in convictions.
1496  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Cruz failing? on: April 22, 2016, 11:12:44 am
I'm guessing the Media has figured they'd rather lose with Trump. We've seen this game before, with Romney et al. Same candidate, even worse results.

Thus, I'm not surprised to see Trump cave on conservatives. We shall see. Lots of interesting stuff happening in the background.

Trump's scorched earth is only going to benefit Hillary in the end.
1497  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: To tell the truth I like Ted Kruz on: April 22, 2016, 11:01:29 am
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How do you know the homosexuality recommendation isn't outdated?

That's a good question. I ain't *narrow-mindedness* for folks to agree that biblical principles are true. Wink

Let's see how he answers this question. Wink
1498  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Campaign: CT and IL are in play against HRC this fall on: April 22, 2016, 11:00:05 am
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this is further proof of my conspiracy theory that Trump is really in this to get Hillary elected

Makes perfect sense to me. Why risk a loss when you can rig it?
1499  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Campaign: CT and IL are in play against HRC this fall on: April 22, 2016, 10:57:19 am
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A dissolution of the GOP is already a possibility

If he touches the prolife plank of the GOP platform, the party will be destroyed. You can't win by being Dem Lite, and if Trump pursues that goal in his quixotic desire to win over blue states, he's going to get crushed.

He has a path to win that I already outlined. He's either receiving bad advice, or sincerely believes that stabbing prolifers in the back is the way to victory.

Never trusted him, believed he'd do this the instant he thought he didn't need prolifers anymore. He's in for a real surprise if he thinks they are gonna forgive him... ever.
1500  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Trump Poised to Get Lowest Vote Ever Among Latinos on: April 22, 2016, 10:52:24 am
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you really think Trump will get 11%? I just don't buy it.

Totally buy it. I have Hispanic Texas friends who are conservative prolifers. They are, to a man (or woman), not voting Trump.

He could lose Texas if this keeps up and he manages to keep 30 percent of the Republican base away.

2016 is going to be a landslide against Trump if he's the nominee.
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