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1476  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz will be the nominee. Prove me wrong. on: April 01, 2016, 03:26:57 am
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I know you don't like Trump, but it's not like he's gonna lose Kansas or Missouri. Let's be real.

I've seen Numbers where Trump gets 77 percent of republicans and is -27 with independents. That would mean Trump would lose against a 100 percent non-democrat electorate.
1477  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP: "There has to be some form of punishment" for women who have abortions on: March 31, 2016, 08:41:59 am
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You're sort of proving my point on the ontology!  Because you conceive a zygote as life you make the comparison to murder. A pregnant woman isn't wilfully 'murdering' anything; that is not her intent when choosing an abortion.

No, a zygote isn't a person because I conceive the zygote to be a person. A zygote is a person because of biological continuity of the individual from conception onwards.

This is a key assumption in child support - that this continuity exists. No continuity = no child support payments.
1478  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP: "There has to be some form of punishment" for women who have abortions on: March 31, 2016, 08:39:14 am
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but if Trump is going to lose, then this will be the week it was realized.

End of April, I'd agree. Now? No.

1479  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Sec. Clinton be worried about Senator Sanders' momentum on: March 31, 2016, 08:36:09 am
No. Sanders is still down by 12 points in NY - he needs to even that up and needs to be up by about 15 in Wisconsin.

Bernieslide needs to jump about 10 points for him to be where he needs to be.
1480  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Cruz want death penalty to all women who have abortions, no exception (???) on: March 31, 2016, 06:53:51 am
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The women requests a death, even if death occurs, or, is pretended to have happened, in another way, the women still wanted a death, made plans for a death and conspired with others for a death. The women is still guilty for her actions even if they did not lead to the death.

And what precisely *are* her actions if the abortion doctor lies to her and tells her that her child isn't alive, and isn't a person?

All she's done is walk into a clinic and sat on a bed. What actionable thing could she be charged with if she's been lied to about the nature of her decision?
1481  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP: "There has to be some form of punishment" for women who have abortions on: March 31, 2016, 06:22:46 am
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Psychologically there is no ‘child’

If existence itself is based on feelings, why is murder wrong?
1482  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10 on: March 31, 2016, 05:45:45 am
Maxwell, who was the last republican that won an election?
1483  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Have we passed Peak Trump? on: March 31, 2016, 05:37:08 am
Trump has lead except for a few days in November the entire race. He's on track to becoming the nominee, both in the delegates that he's won and his current position in the race (he's better than Romney, fwiw).

That being said, he's the nominee who's waited the longest to reach a majority in any state. Until he does, he'll be vulnerable all the way to the convention.
1484  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Cruz want death penalty to all women who have abortions, no exception (???) on: March 31, 2016, 05:29:23 am
Uh, for one, many prolifers are Catholics and don't believe that the death penalty is the appropriate punishment for anyone.

Two, women are dying from abortion today - due to sepsis and other infections acquired from their purportedly 'safe' abortion. Much of that has to do with the fact that abortion doctors do not have admitting requirements at a local hospital and dump their patients off without the proper continuity of care. Then you get into the fact that abortion doctors themselves have opposed proper regulations  that would require them to operate as surgical clinics. They would rather gamble with their patients. Some don't even have a current medical license.

Three, who's hands are actually on the suction vacuum machine? Technically a woman would be an accessory and not the one actually committing the murder. Ergo, treating two things that are legally different makes no sense.

Four, there's the argument that it is better to secure valid testimony against abortion doctors, so there would be precedent for prosecutors to actually protect these women. That is how it worked before Roe, fwiw. -

Five, if at any point the abortion doctor lied and told the woman that her child wasn't alive and wasn't a person, then we couldn't hold the woman responsible.
1485  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of these states does Trump lose? on: March 30, 2016, 04:39:50 pm
If Cruz is up by 10 in WI, he's up in IN.
1486  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Wisconsin on: March 30, 2016, 04:25:32 pm
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if Trump is very close to 1237 delegates (between 1200 and 1230), good luck stopping him at a brokered convention.

If Cruz goes true WTA in Wisconsin, and Trump fails to break 50 in New York, Trump no longer has a path to the nomination. Cruz is close enough to him to whitewash (or near whitewash him), in CA.

Right now, Trump has to bag, NJ, NY, CT, DE, PA, RI and MD. Can he drag 400 delegates from there?
1487  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: WI - Marquette University: Sanders up 4, Cruz up 10 on: March 30, 2016, 04:21:24 pm
Wow.

Cruz looks like he's going to be hitting every single small town in Wisconsin for the CD sweep. 42 looks very possible now.
1488  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What percentage of the Republican vote will Clinton get in the GENERAL? on: March 30, 2016, 09:17:51 am
15 percent if Trump runs sounds reasonable to me.
1489  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Crossing the 50 percent barrier. on: March 30, 2016, 09:10:34 am
Blah. 2008. I need coffee!
1490  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Crossing the 50 percent barrier. on: March 30, 2016, 08:52:32 am
Clinton also has a chance of being the first nominee with greater than 50 percent to lose an election. She's not particularly strong for this time of the cycle, but she's definitely stronger this year than the previous cycle, and stronger than Romney and Trump.
1491  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Crossing the 50 percent barrier. on: March 30, 2016, 08:49:41 am
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Also, what "peak" at 48.5? She's over a majority on RCP, Pollster, and 538 right now.

Her peak in 2012.
1492  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Crossing the 50 percent barrier. on: March 30, 2016, 08:41:36 am
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Do you think maybe it was because she wasn't running for the nomination?

Hillary's election curves are unique.
1493  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A Cruz/Walker ticket could unite the GOP on: March 30, 2016, 08:36:05 am
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Should I remind everyone how Walker went from 22-25% in the polls down to literally 0% over the span of a month?

Why is that a bad thing in a VP?
1494  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Crossing the 50 percent barrier. on: March 30, 2016, 08:30:11 am
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Are you talking general election, or primaries?

Mallow - 50 percent in the primaries seems to be a significant number. I'm asserting that 50 percent in a national primary poll means that you will be the nominee.

The length of time in which the nominee takes to get to that seems to be an indicator of strength in a national election.
1495  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Crossing the 50 percent barrier. on: March 30, 2016, 08:28:43 am
Obama broke 50 percent by late April. Clinton never did - her peak of 48.5 back in October is a bit of an aberration.

IOW - Trump should have sufficient momentum to push through, but he has to do it this month. He needs to win over the disaffected by April. Clinton was at 43 in 2012, April 1st and still lost the nomination.
1496  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Crossing the 50 percent barrier. on: March 30, 2016, 08:24:05 am
Polling average per RCP. Romney is the only republican nominee not to get 50+ percent in the national average by April 1st. Trump will join him as the second.

We already know that Trump is a weak nominee, but so far he seems to be stronger than Romney.
1497  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Upshot's Republican delegate calculator on: March 30, 2016, 06:03:07 am
Not a great Trump calculator. MT will probably go to Cruz. Looks like Trump will end up short, especially if Cruz can split WA and CA.
1498  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Crossing the 50 percent barrier. on: March 30, 2016, 05:49:52 am
Trump vs McCain/Romney

Interestingly enough, in the national polling, Trump is still stronger than Romney was at equivalent points of their run.

Romney hit 38.3 in March 6th of 2012.

He would finally break 40 percent a month later on April 9th.

Trump was slightly weaker than Romney at 37.5 in March 6th - crossing 40 percent March 19th, and leveling off at 42.5 percent. Romney - the previous weakest Republican nominee, didn't cross the 50 percent barrier until the end of April.

This month will be crucial for Trump's nomination. He will have to cross the 50 percent barrier nationwide by the end of April or he will likely not get the nomination.
1499  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DC Madame Scandal - Who Is It? on: March 30, 2016, 01:50:25 am
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completely oblivious

That the smear train is running full force. *yawn*.

100 percent transparent.
1500  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A Cruz/Walker ticket could unite the GOP on: March 29, 2016, 01:47:47 am
Wow. Three endorsements in this thread. Thanks guys!
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