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August 27, 2015, 06:01:00 pm
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: June 27, 2015, 01:39:58 pm
Open emigration to the Northern Europe might end at any time after Tuesday.

Just saying.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MO-GOV: Schweich dead from gunshot wound on: April 18, 2015, 02:41:28 am


Here is a much more objective report on what actually happened:

http://www.ky3.com/news/local/police-missouri-auditor-tom-schweich-talked-of-suicide-left-no-note/21048998_32366062

And, a report that adds critical information:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_MISSOURI_AUDITOR?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT


The key takeaways is that Schweich had been suicidal for some time. He had severe Crohn's Disease. Clearly, he was severely depressed, but, had refused to seek any help. He had even threatened to kill himself while holding a gun in hand. His suicide seems to have everything to do with depression.

No substantial "whispering campaign" was ever found. Schweich had stated he would have to, "run as an independent or he needed to kill himself."


The last statement would explain the press conference. Perhaps, he called the conference to announce he was running as an independent, only realize that was a hopeless undertaking.

Now that the real facts are out, I cannot state how despicable it was for John Danforth to assert the "thin skull" principle applies. That refers to criminal acts. Tom Schweich wasn't a fourteen year-old girl being bullied about her looks on social media. He was a grown man seeking to be in the public eye. The person bearing moral responsible for the suicide of Tom Schweich is Tom Schweich.

Those who played up the Jewish angle were being equally outrageous. One person wrote that Missouri has "never had a Jewish governor" as if that were evidence of anything. Here's a link to a list of every Missouri governor.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_Missouri

I'm not aware of any of them being Black, nor Hispanic. None seem to have an obvious Slavic name, Italian name or Greek name. Given a pool of less than sixty, and given the percentage of population of Missouri that is Jewish, zero Jewish governors is a rounding error from the expected value using random chance. While Missouri has not had a Jewish governor, apparently, twenty-four Jews have been governors of other states, including two currently serving. Of course, Missouri has two Black Congressmen, including one of the few in a White super-majority district, so charges of "racism" seems well stuffed with straw.

It is interesting to note that had Schweich had a Jewish maternal grandmother many Jews would insist that he was in fact "Jewish" even if he was a practicing Episcopalian.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Will Texas ever have more electoral votes than California? on: April 11, 2015, 01:20:00 am
The case for Texas eventually passing California can be summarized in one word: drought.

The evidence indicates that the 1900's were the wettest in millennium. If rainfall returns to historical levels, and, groundwater levels fall, Texas could grow sufficiently faster for sufficiently long.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MO-GOV: Schweich dead from gunshot wound on: April 06, 2015, 03:44:41 pm
You're obviously unfamiliar with what a whisper campaign is.

You are obviously making unstated assumptions.

Why Tom Schweich killed himself is one question. Why a top aid to Tom Schweich killed himself may be a related question. Was there a whisper campaign is another question. Was there any relationship between the two is a third question.

I have commented on the first, second and fourth questions. I think the third question is probably a tangent. How exactly does that imply I am unaware of what a "whispering campaign" is?

The three major explanations for suicide are, first, that it was an irrational decision made by someone who was irrational, maybe due to depression, rejection, etc.; second; that it is the decision many stockbrokers took in 1929; or, third, a decision to opt out of the pain of a terminal illness. Given the totality of the circumstances those possibilities ought to explored and exhausted before settling on the possibility that two very marginal personalities were given very gentle nudges.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MO-GOV: Schweich dead from gunshot wound on: April 06, 2015, 12:40:22 pm
...Jesus Christ BSB, no wonder you're in your 50s and have a POF profile.

Do you knew what was about 50 years ago? The Barry Goldwater campaign for President. Like Tom Schweich, Barry Goldwater's paternal grandfather practiced Judaism. It wasn't much an issue then. Net, net, had the issue of Tom Schweich's grandfather's religion actually been raised in the campaign it probably would have resulted in more voters changing their votes to Schweich out of sympathy for his opponent raising the issue than votes lost out of concern.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MO-GOV: Schweich dead from gunshot wound on: April 06, 2015, 12:22:53 pm
Brunner has launched an exploratory committee to run for governor. He's meeting with former Schweich campaign officials.

I guess he's going to be the bailout option for Missouri Republicans. I still wish Hanaway would get the nomination though just because the MO GOP deserves to lose big next year to Koster for their role in Schweich's suicide, and the refusal of Hancock and Hanaway to resign/drop out.


Assuming for the sake of argument that all the speculations presented as fact by the media regarding Schweich's suicide, and assuming Hancock actions were characterized accurately, why should Hanaway "drop out?" If you believed the rumors, I could see a basis for calling for Hancock's resignation. But, what exactly is the alleged case against Hanaway other than guilt by association?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MO-GOV: Schweich dead from gunshot wound on: April 06, 2015, 11:43:25 am
We don't know exactly why Tom Schweich killed himself. All we do know is that in the moments leading up to his death, he was very much focused on the whisper campaign against him by John Hancock. You're basically trying to deflect the damaging reality of the situation by insisting on being painfully obtuse.

No, all that we know for sure is that he asked to hold a press conference before he shot himself. This very much leaves open the possibility that he discovered something the morning of his death that was about to erupt.

Sure,  it is a possibility that Schweich decided to deal with the alleged "whisper campaign" that he was Jewish by holding a press conference, then decided that such a conference would be so painful he opted to kill himself instead not leaving a note, and, as a result his close aid opted to kill himself a month because he feared having to find a job. But, it fits the facts much more closely if had been the case that say, the aid had been embezzling money and a scandal was about to erupt that very well might result in Schweich's political career being ruined [What kind of financial fudiciary does it show to hire a man who steals from the taxpayer?;] Schweich's scheduling a press conference to get ahead of the scandal,  Schweich realizing nothing he could say could save his campaign, Schweich killing himself in despair; and, then, the aid racked by guilt over causing his boss's death, and, realizing the distinct possibility of his imminent arrest kills himself. Why would Schweich find it difficult to go to the press conference and answer such rumors? If that is the path he chose, and, it wasn't particularly difficult, why would it drive him to commit suicide?

The outline I suggested above is pure speculation, as are the explanations circulated in the press.  Another possibility is that he was severely depressed and refused diagnosis and drugs in an attempt to protect his political career. Another possibility is a potential sex scandal that resulted in Schweich acting out of fear of exposure.

8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MO-GOV: Schweich dead from gunshot wound on: April 05, 2015, 12:28:22 pm
You would be right if there weren't Republicans that had come forward stating that Hancock had said derogatory remarks about Schweich's supposed Judaism in their presence. Pretending like that hod nothing to do with what has happened is either naive or disingenuous. I'm not sure which is worse.


Temporal correlation is not causation. It is neither "na´ve" or "disingenuous" to note that Tom Schweich killing himself because other folks were claiming he was "Jewish" is not sufficient provocation to induce suicide. It is neither "na´ve" or "disingenuous" to note that Tom Schweich killing himself because he was "hurt" that other people made fun of his appearance is not sufficient provocation for a grown man to kill himself.  These explanations for his suicide are not plausible on their faces. When a close aid in turn kills himself such explanations begin to defy all reasonable probability.

Let me put it this way. If someone suggested Tom Schweich killed himself because someone cut him off in traffic that morning would you consider it proven if a video from a traffic camera showed he was in fact cut off that morning?

9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MO-GOV: Schweich dead from gunshot wound on: April 05, 2015, 01:18:14 am

Congratulations for asking a question that the press hasn't bothered to ask!

There are reasonable explanations for why he killed himself.

He could have been depressed. He rejected diagnosis and drugs to preserve his political career and paid the ultimate price.

A scandal might have been about to erupt. That could have been why he called a press conference. When he killed himself no one went forward because they didn't want to be blamed for Schweich's suicide.

When a close aid dies, that points to the scandal option. The aid said it was because he didn't want to face being unemployed again. That reeks of bull. Folks working for politicians know their paycheck aren't guaranteed.  Perhaps, the aid killed myself because he felt responsible for his boss's death and the corresponding guilt. Perhaps, the aid knew he was about to be exposed.

These options make sense. [Of course, it could just be a coincidence that two men killed themselves for trivial reasons within a month.] Instead of looking at what happened rationally, some tried to settle scores by making this about Schweich's grandfather's religion, or his looks. It is pathetic on so many levels.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Republican Pick-Up in Pennsylvania State House on: April 03, 2015, 11:15:02 pm
In any case, Howard Dean said stuff like "we gotta win guys with Confederate flags on their pickup trucks", but the true leftists today castigate them as gap-toothed racist hicks. There's a lot of selective nostalgia going on for the Dean era. He elected blue dogs, not Bernie Sanderses.

I'lll take Dean electing Blue Dogs over DWS electing nobody.

Me too. I would even go further and readily accept Blue Dog majority in House in place of present Republican majority... Especially - taking into account that "progressive majority" is out of question for many years to come, and i am not that young to wait 30 years.

After all your protestations that you were a "moderate" who like "moderates [of both parties]" wouldn't the consistent application of your own words be that in thirty years you would trying to rally Republicans to support "blue dog Democrats" to keep "progressives" out of power?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Standing by my prediction that democrats will gain seats in the senate tomorrow on: January 05, 2015, 04:58:42 pm
You're either joking or on something.

Actually, elections have trends. The trend on election day was decidedly Republican. Had it been decidedly Democratic, this prediction would have been, perhaps, only a tad bit optimistic. The predictions that don't make sense are from folks that expect the close races to break 50/50.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is This Acceptable Behavior? on: January 04, 2015, 12:18:32 am
BS Bob's capitalization of the word 'truth' is hilarious for reasons I can't quite put my finger on.

Mortimer J Adler wrote of six great ideas: Truth, Goodness, Beauty, Liberty, Equality, Justice.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is This Acceptable Behavior? on: January 04, 2015, 12:12:44 am
BS Bob and white southerners have something in common

"You shouldn't pity me for living in a tornado prone tinder box!  What about those living under bridges?"

"I know welfare and good governance might do me some good...but... BLACK PEOPLE!"

As long as you're not on the bottom, you're entitled to act like you're on top...amirite?

First of all, to the extent you wish to compare to Southerners I thank you. To the extent I want Southerners to vote Republican I again thank you for the tone with which you speak of Southerners.

Second, Why should people "pity me for living in a tornado prone tinder box?"  Generally, the economics of trailers are poor. And, as you have noted, they aren't as substantial structures as stick-built structures. On the other hand, they seem to offer more privacy than an apartment. That said, there are people for whom that is what their finances provide. Furthermore, in more remote areas, modular structures make more economic sense. All I have stated is that I find it an odd prejudice to look down on people who live in trailers. One explanation for my objecting to such condescension is that I happen to live in a trailer. Another explanation for my objecting to such condescension is that I find it to be bigoted and wrong. The fact that you jumped to the first conclusion rather than the second says more about you than it does me.

In the most recent election, one of the upset winners for the Republicans was Tom Tillis. He spoke in a dignified manner of growing up in a trailer. I don't judge him for that fact. I don't see why anyone should.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is This Acceptable Behavior? on: January 03, 2015, 02:09:23 pm
Bob, my man, just how deep do you want to dig your grave here, as it were? If you want to mix it up with Joe, you need more careful placing of your pieces on the chessboard than this - much more. This is amateur hour. Your end might be worthy here, your means pathetic.

The underlying facts here are that the photo in question is a photo-shop forgery. The inconsistent background color that just happens to curve around the "T" in "Tranny" clearly shows that fact. Since when is Truth not a complete defense? Your statement that my "end might be worthy here" indicates that you seem to agree that the photo in question is a forgery.

You would think that someone taking the position of moderator would attempt to hold themselves to a higher standard to set a better example for all. The message sent by using photo-shopped forgeries that is that in politics winning is what is important. Actually, that does seem to be the tone set by many of those in politics. I see that as unfortunate.

Since you wish to discuss strategy, my answer to you is to note you might want to rethink your strategy. There was a poster here named Dan, I think, who seems, as best I can tell, to represent a viewpoint one might consider conservative talk radio. He was banned from posting here, in part, it seems due to a campaign to have him removed by certain posters here. To the best of my recollection, he stuck to advocating his position. His banishment seemed motivated by a desire to not see his viewpoint expressed rather than any wrongdoing on his part.

We live in a world were there exists widespread attempts by folks on the Left to limit political speech by those on the Right. Tactically, some on the center-Right have saw fit to cooperate with such tactics to punish what they see as their common enemies on the Right. While in the short-run such tactics might seem advantageous, they are in the long run suicidal since the process of censoring "conservative" speech doesn't end with limiting the right to speak by those furthest Right. Once they are excluded, those mostly Right will be targeted next. After they are excluded, those on the near Right will be excluded. Then, those on the center Right will be excluded. At some point the person being excluded will be you. Eventually, even the DLC viewpoint will no longer be  welcome. Censorship has its own internal logic that follows to natural conclusions.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is This Acceptable Behavior? on: January 03, 2015, 01:13:47 pm
The sign is a rather obvious work of Photoshop. [The background color changes between the words, which can't be explained by differences in lighting because the shadows, and areas around the shadows are quite uniformly lit.

The sign seems to be bent.

An explanation that simply doesn't make sense. Presumably, the variations in shading would be fairly uniform left to right, while in the Photoshopped image the transition from gray to a whiter background color magically circles around the top of the "T" before dropping up and down.


Take it up with the moderators. If you're going to whine about having to deal with political views different from your own, go hang out in the comments section at TownHall.

But, I am not "whining about" dealing with political views different from mine. I am complaining about an obvious use of photo-shopped forgeries to pursue a political point of view. If a conservative poster were using photo-shopped forgeries to belittle a liberal I still would complain. Political discourse ought to occur in the context of Truth, and the Truth is that this photo is a photo-shop forgery.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will be the LEAST popular new governor? on: January 02, 2015, 12:39:37 pm
Rauner. He has opted to captain the Titantic Illinois as it moves inexorably towards the fiscal iceberg.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL Gov- Is Rauner completely cooked, or is there any hope? on: December 06, 2014, 11:32:22 am
He won 60.3-35.5 outside of Cook.

Disgusting.


Disgusting that it isnt higher?



The state of Illinois should be forever praised for throwing out Pat Quinn. With Bruce Rauner, the Illinois economy will come roaring back.

You're delusional if you think lame-duck Bruce Rauner will bring the Illinois economy back singlehandedly Roll Eyes

RIP Illinois


If he wasnt cockblocked by a democrat controlled legislature beholden to the unions and leftist environmentalist groups, Illinois's economy would of been able to do the reforms it needs.

Growth in government spending ends in one of two ways: either, the government will not, or cannot spend any more. Once you understand some limit will be reached some day, opting for the former makes more sense. The politicians in Illinois have rigged the system in favor of the latter. The fiscal situation in Illinois is unsustainable, untenable and highly resistant to reform.

The real question is how soon Illinois' death spiral begins, and, how quickly that death spiral accelerates. As businesses realize taxes in Illinois will only go up, they will flee, leaving the remaining businesses in an even more untenable position. The economy of Illinois will be hollowed out well before the state goes bankrupt.

As a number of Republican gubernatorial candidates fell behind in the fall, Quinn's passing Rauner in the polls troubled me the least. I was completely comfortable letting the Democrats "own" what's next for Illinois.
18  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Robotics on: November 16, 2014, 03:12:37 pm
Alternative: a party that favors massive welfare programs and/or something like a guaranteed minimum income becomes massively popular in the face of widespread and growing unemployment

I heard the politics of "job training" programs explained like this:

Imagine placing 100 dogs in a room with 95 bones. Result: after the fighting is over, 95 dogs have a bone and five are licking their wounds.

As a solution imagine taking each dog aside and training him about how to compete more vigorously for a bone. Result: after the fighting is over 95 dogs have a bone, five dogs are licking their wounds, and 100 dog trainers have drawn a paycheck.

The real problem is a lack of jobs, not a lack of "training."

This applies as well to the current obsession with "education." The result isn't more jobs. It is more debt.
19  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Maps of Current State Houses and Senates on: November 16, 2014, 02:29:26 pm
In addition, the GOP took the New Hampshire House.
20  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Robotics on: November 16, 2014, 02:09:55 pm
Robotics will be a chief driver of demographics in the near future. Basically, soon jobs will be automated out of existence even faster than they are created. That will transforms our demographics and our politics. Immigration will be reduced, perhaps dramatically as the demand for labor drops. Unemployment, and underemployment will continue to lower the birthrate. Our politics eventually transform from one that favors the party of immigrates to one that favors the party of family formation.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: What do Governors do when the opposite party holds veto-proof majorities? on: November 16, 2014, 01:12:06 pm
Nixon, Baker and Rauner will be in that situation.

Rauner's situation is different in kind than that of Nixon's and Baker's, while Nixon's is different in degree from Baker's.  Massachusetts' Democrat could do as they please. Republican in Missouri will need some degree of party discipline to govern. If the GOP members of the Illinois House hold together, an override will pass by one vote. That will make each and every Democratic member of the House "the decisive vote for [fill in the blank.]"  That is a politically untenable position in swing districts. It will also grants tremendous leverage to holdouts. I doubt Chicago will be able to work its will in such a situation.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win the Louisiana Runoff? on: November 07, 2014, 01:46:56 am
DSCC cancels all reserved ads for the runoff.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Congrats, Phil on: November 07, 2014, 01:40:51 am
Why congratulate Phil?

He now has a Democratic governor. It is one of a few states where the GOP is worse off next year than this year [OR].
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: what year would be the last that this seat would have been won by a... on: October 19, 2014, 11:33:05 pm
lets play a game and start drawing hypothetical districts. I'll start with a D+8 district


I'm guessing 1994 would be the last year an R would have won this, since Ackerman nearly lost that year and this is a point or two right to the 90s 5th.

1980?
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is This Acceptable Behavior? on: October 11, 2014, 07:44:09 pm
So, you live in a trailer park. We got it. My condolences.

That is exactly the prejudice that I wonder is acceptable.

You would think that the partisans here would consider it counter-productive to gratuitously insult entire classes of people for reasons of expediency if nothing else. My point is that there are folks here who simply don't seem to care. Had a sign with misspellings been taken in front of a homeless encampment folks here would be outraged to be mocking these poor unfortunate souls. By all accounts mobile homes are more substantial shelter than cardboard boxes. My condolences would be for the folks who live under bridges or over steam grates.

Nobody cares. Stop whining.

If "nobody cares" then why don't they just admit that the image is Photoshopped?
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