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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Tasmania 2014 on: March 27, 2014, 12:07:53 am
Looks like 15-7-3


3  4 2 3 3
1  1 2 1 2
1  0 1 1 0

http://www.tec.tas.gov.au/StateElection/Results.html
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Crimean status referendum: March 16, 2014 on: March 16, 2014, 04:27:41 pm
Look here for info and results (First exit polls at 20pm local time, results at 22.30pm):

http://en.c-inform.info

BTW: Fabrizio Bertot, a member of the European Parliament from the EPP (Conservatives), who observes the elections in Crimea, told media that the election looks like elections in Italy and that he has seen no irregularities.

(some Western media outfits have reported on the glass boxes where voters throw their ballots into as being "not fair").

I don't see much of a problem with this, because people can vote in voting booths, then fold their ballots once or twice and nobody sees who they voted.

Then, again, because the ballot boxes are glass everybody can see who folded their ballots once or twice.
This is common in many European countries, ...

True, but, is not common in most European countries to have overwhelming military forces stationed in their country.

I'm surprised the ballot isn't printed with options "YES" and "no" mimicking another famous referendum.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Crimean status referendum: March 16, 2014 on: March 16, 2014, 02:55:40 pm
Look here for info and results (First exit polls at 20pm local time, results at 22.30pm):

http://en.c-inform.info

BTW: Fabrizio Bertot, a member of the European Parliament from the EPP (Conservatives), who observes the elections in Crimea, told media that the election looks like elections in Italy and that he has seen no irregularities.

(some Western media outfits have reported on the glass boxes where voters throw their ballots into as being "not fair").

I don't see much of a problem with this, because people can vote in voting booths, then fold their ballots once or twice and nobody sees who they voted.

Then, again, because the ballot boxes are glass everybody can see who folded their ballots once or twice.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Tasmania 2014 on: March 15, 2014, 04:59:07 pm
Here are my predictions:

Bass - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Braddon- 3 Liberal, 2 Labor
Denison - 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green
Franklin - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Lyons - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green

Total: 14 Liberal, 7 Labor, 4 Green

I still stand by this prediction going into tomorrow.



So far, I'm a lot more spot on here than I was in SA...

What is the likely flow of preferences in Braddon?
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: How Democratic is your name? on: March 03, 2014, 01:55:10 am
75% of those named Hitler are registered Republican, while 75% of those named Gandhi or Jesus are registered Democrats.
Does that mean that Republicans are per definition three times more evil than Democrats? An interesting philosophical question.

Also, 82% named Obama are Democrats. 67% named Glory are Democrats. A clear majority of those named Hope are Democrats.


The Democrats do especially well with Lucifer.

Daffy had a strong Democratic lean as well.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 14, 2014 on: February 20, 2014, 01:13:44 am
I'm sorry then. I just had bad memories of what happened last time you taled about the subject.

I'll happily concede you than the OQLF (the so-called language police) is clearly over the top. While, on paper, the idea is good, on the application, they are clearly overzealous. But, in the 70's, it was needed since all stores were belonging to Anglophones and were refusing to give services in French. But right now, it's clearly overzealous and they should stick to check in services in French are avaliable in every shop, which was the first goal. Besides that, I don't see any "bureaucratic harassment". Most government forms are avaliable in English and most emigration is because it's not really possible to live in Quebec anymore as an unilingual Anglophone outside Montreal and Outaouais. It's quite difficult to live in an area where you are not talking the language of the majority. You're de facto excluded, since you can't communicate with them.

As for French fries, why they would do that? They didn't have to be forced, they translate the name of their products in the local language in most countries. It helps to identify the product.

And, really, it's possible to reach a perfect level in English with current system. Upper education isn't subject to that and I know plenty of people who decided to go to an English college or university for that reason. It's working well right now.


"But, in the 70's, it was needed since all stores were belonging to Anglophones and were refusing to give services in French. "

That sounds a little Orwellian to me.  I don't find it plausible that in a Province in which 80% of people speak French some stores weren't owned or managed by Francophones. It would seem that the shops that catered to Francophones would have more customers than those that catered exclusively to Anglophones.  Offering services in the indigenous language would be a competitive advantage that ought to have prevailed over time in a market economy.

What seems to be the case was that bilingualism had taken root in some areas.  That created a situation in which Francophone kids could seek employment in Alberta or Toronto, form families, and raise Anglophone kids, while Anglophone kids could move to bilingual areas of Quebec and raise bilingual Anglophones children.  The inevitable result of such a linguistic melting pot with a such a bias would have been English Canada.  This resulted in the rise of reactionary forces that wanted to vote to slow the process using the power of state.

In America, menus list things like "tacos" and "fajitas" in Mexican dinners, "cannoli" and "ravioli" in Italian dinners, "wantons" in Chinese dinners and "escargot" in French dinners.  I read a story a couple of years ago about an Italian dinner in Quebec that was threatened with fines and other horrors if it continued to sell, I think it was, "cannoli." Apparently, there is a French name for the dish.  Now, you might dismiss this an example of being "overzealous," but, I do not.  Bad causes attract bad people.  Only folks who are "overzealous" would self-select to enforce such a ridiculous policy.  Government of fanatics, by fanatics, and for fanatics is going to create fanatical outcomes.

By your admission an Anglophone could have shopped with ease in Quebec back in the 70's. Presumably, if nothing else, they could have worked in the same shops.  Now, by your own admission, it isn't even possible for them to live in Quebec. You agree with me. We merely disagree on whether, or not, this outcome was intentional, or not.  We both agree this is what is happening. I find this harassment. You don't. Kids growing up in Quebec now face living in the quite difficult situation of not speaking English if they seek employment in Alberta or Toronto. You agree with me. We merely disagree on whether, or not, this outcome was intentional, or not.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 14, 2014 on: February 19, 2014, 10:27:33 pm
Oh, great, the English suprematist troll is back again.

As an alleged "English suprematist troll" I would only note that I am much more sympathetic to their views that most.  Unlike most Anglophones, and unlike most Americans who had no opinion, I was routing for the referendums to pass, and was disappointed when they failed.  While my heart might sympathize with the cause, my head knows the linguistic future of North America. Government action might delay the inevitable, but, it can't stop it.


G.K. Chesterton wrote that he wouldn't want to governed by foreigners because it would mean being annoyed in hundreds of ways be could not begin to list.  I'm sure that French Canadians have a similar list for being governed by Anglophones. Voting to be governed by Francophones makes a certain sense. Designing a government where Anglophones are annoyed in thousands of ways that bureaucrats do list does not. At a certain you have acknowledge that what is happening in Quebec is state-organized harassment. And, at a certain point you have to conclude the purpose of the policies is simply to see to that Anglophones quit Quebec. That is simply wrong on so many levels.  To be lectured as a "suprematist" by those that support state-organized harassment of just about everyone who happens to not share their ethnicity, and harasses almost no one who happens to share their ethnicity doesn't even pass the smell test.

8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 14, 2014 on: February 19, 2014, 06:52:43 pm
The PQ certainly isn't far-right or fascistic or anything, but it is kind of a bit racist. But then the Liberals are kind of entirely corrupt.

I certainly won't contradict it. There was always a segment of the base which was, but, until the 90's, the leadership wasn't pursuing policies in that sense.

Rene Levesque policies weren't racist (he may have been through, he pursued pro-gay rights polices despite being personnaly homophobic), but the Charter is.

And before someone brings language rights, English isn't a race.

I have a basic sympathy for those wanting to preserve their cultural identity and political autonomy. I have no sympathy for a movement that would deny parents the choice to educate their children in the language that will further their children's eventual quest for employment in places like Toronto and Alberta simply because of an accident of birth.

Comparisons with the FN are completely unfair. It is "mainstream" French parties that are fining their own citizens for using "le hoovercraft," and, compound nouns.  Heaven forbid someone say "passport number" rather than the more wordy "the number of the passport." Apparently, that nonsense has crossed the pond.

Frankly, the linguistic destiny of North America was sealed in Haiti over two centuries ago. [It was probably decided by the English decision to, and the French refusal to, sentence folks to transportation long before the Haitian uprising.]  Outlawing the local McDonald's from selling "French fries" because "French fries" isn't the French term reeks of desperate reaction from folks who know they are on the wrong side of history.  At least, they aren't demanding that local franchises be named "Fils de Donald," yet.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: South Australian Parliamentary Elections Thread (March 15, 2014) on: January 23, 2014, 12:08:53 pm
Let's suppose that Labor holds on -barely- to power this year.  In the long-term, would it be better for the Liberals to lose this year, with the certainty that four years hence they would be winning in a landslide due to voter fatigue with one-party rule?  

Supping your analysis is correct, wouldn't it behoove the Labor party to assure that it loses a close election least they face elimination four years hence? I find it odd that advice that presumably applies equally to both parties is only being directed towards one party.

In any case, I strongly suspect that both Labor and Liberal party partisans would reject this advice out of hand. Perhaps, they would even label it as concern trolling.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia 2013 - Results thread on: November 05, 2013, 05:45:25 am
I think it would have to be a fresh vote across the state, if that is what the court orders, not just those two electorates, mainly because it would be conducted as a fresh by-election. New candidates could nominate, or old ones drop out, so it would be impossible to align the new results with the old. The elected Senators would also likely be up for re-election, too, due to the quotas required. If those final two spots were the only ones declared open, the quota would be a third of the vote, not the one-seventh the others received, and would almost certainly result in one Liberal and one Labor Senator being elected.

Is this true? If you seat the folks already duly elected, you can count them as three full, and one full quota respectively. The Liberals could win one of the remaining two seats by taking 64%, or so, of the vote. Otherwise, they would fall short. Labor could conceivably win a second seat.

Quote
I could not imagine the Court of Disputed Returns going down that path. In the former precedent, being block voting, or multiple first past the post, the election of the other two would have not been affected by the mistake, and an election for one, rather than three, would not change quota, since the system relies on pluralities. In short, if the Court orders a fresh half-Senate election for WA, it will, I'm sure, need to be state-wide, not simply in the electorates where irregularities have been detected.

What is to stop folks from arguing that it is the composition of the Senate that has not been decided? Sure, the source of doubt is WA, but, then, again, the source of doubt is in only two of the seats in WA. What's the difference that makes a distinction between having the doubt localized to one state, or two specific seats within one state? What we know for certain is every declared winner in the Senate but two were in fact duly elected.  Why not rerun the entire Senate? Presumably, the rules call for the simultaneous election of half the Senate.

What is being argued here is an alleged lesser of two evils that is nevertheless quite evil. The precedent would be horrible: if you don't like the results of the election disappear some key ballots to force a new election.  There has to be a better way than failing to seat duly elected members. How about invalidating the second count, and commencing a third count with the results from the missing precincts from the first count being presumed accurate? Or, a referendum, PUP/Labor or SE/GREEN take your pick?  Or an election between those four candidates for two seats? Or, drawing straws between Shooters and Christians? Or, drawing straws between PUP/SE and LAB/GRN?
11  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Where does Missouri fit? on: October 14, 2013, 01:37:48 pm
Unfortunately, we have a lot of the Southern and Plains culture.  We're maybe 1/3 each: 1. proper civilized Midwestern (St. Louis mostly), 2. Arkansas/Tennessee style in the southern half of the state, and 3. sort of Kansas-like (rather than Iowa-like, alas) in the north.  So the State is about 2/3's horrific, 1/3 barely tolerable.

The presumes that folks from Arkansas and Tennessee are not "proper[ly] civilized." That is just an assumption.  I would hazard to guess that most folks can walk alone at night in most of rural Arkansas and Tennessee. Can folks walk alone at night in Chicago or Saint Louis? Most folks I know would consider roving gangs murdering each other by the hundreds a sign of barbarity, if not anarchy, rather than "proper civilization."
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia 2013 - Results thread on: October 10, 2013, 12:24:25 pm
So the full Senate result is
Coalition 17
Labor 13
Greens 3
Palmer 3
Family First 1
Motoring Enthusiast 1
Liberal Democrats 1
Xenophon 1

which makes the new Senate
Coalition 33
Labor 26
Greens 9
Palmer 3
Family First 1
Motoring Enthusiast 1
Liberal Democrats 1
DLP 1
Xenophon 1

(assuming no changes from the likely recount in WA)

PUP/ Motoring Enthusiast block 4
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hessen State Election, Sept. 22, 2013 on: September 21, 2013, 11:48:03 pm
Collapsing Green numbers are due to the whole pedophilia thing?
The Green collapse is a national trend and extensively discussed in the "German elections" thread from post #1060 onwards. I suggest to leave and continue, respectively, the discussion there. However, if there are specific local factors in play (which I am not aware of, but Midas might know some), they of course belong here.

How could the allegation that the Green party is soft on pedophilia be anything other than relevant in every specific election in which they compete?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia 2013 - Results thread on: September 18, 2013, 12:35:52 am
It's a shame Rudd wasn't so gracious in his concession speech.

or Abbott is his victory speech.


In brighter (for democracy - despite increasing the LNP majority) news - Palmer is sliding and is now behind Ted O'Brien.

Back up by three.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia 2013 - Results thread on: September 17, 2013, 02:24:02 am
Palmer lead in Fairfax down to 64 votes with 2,499, or so, ballots left to count.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Colorado Constituents Recalling (2) State Senators for Gun Control Vote on: September 15, 2013, 12:11:17 am
The NRA must go.

You seem to have a problem with both democracy and the Constitution. In a democracy, folks can vote with whomever they want for whatever reasons they choose, or no reasons at all. In the Constitution are provisions about the rights of the people to petition their elected representatives, and to speak freely and publicly about the political issues of the day.  The NRA is merely the expression of voters whom you don't respect exercising their Constitutional rights in a manner that frustrates your political interests.

Why are you attacking his constitutional right to express his opinion?

Surely, you see the irony implicit in your remarks.  Where in your universe lies my Constitutional right to express my opinion that his attitude is both anti-democratic and shows a lack of proper respect for the Constitution?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Colorado Constituents Recalling (2) State Senators for Gun Control Vote on: September 14, 2013, 12:33:29 pm
I support common sense gun laws but this issue can't be the Dems top priority. Gun control and gay marriage are just not issues where national majorities are made. It's about breaking the GOP's interest groups stranglehold on politics and I would start with their business interests long before taking on the NRA.
Like the Dems don't have their interest groups as well? Funny. The Environmental groups, the Unions, and the NEA.

Since they believe invariably supporting Democrats is "non-partisan," while predominately supporting Republicans is "partisan."
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Colorado Constituents Recalling (2) State Senators for Gun Control Vote on: September 12, 2013, 12:32:20 am
You seem to have a problem with both democracy and the Constitution.

Nope. Just a problem with partisan rackets like the NRA.

The NRA is simply not "partisan." In a race between an advocate for gun rights and an advocate for gun restrictions the party of the two candidates won't matter.  Nor, is the NRA a "racket," whatever that means.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Colorado Constituents Recalling (2) State Senators for Gun Control Vote on: September 11, 2013, 11:31:19 pm
Anyone want to take bets on how these new Republican Senators fair in 2014? Turnout will be different, so the recall numbers are not guaranteed to be repeated.

And there's a bit of hypocrisy on this board, when Wisconsin Democrats launched recalls, most Republicans here called that unfair. Double standards run amok.

Are you suggesting there is no "hypocrisy on this board" concerning Democrats who denounced the recalls as "unfair" after being silent concerning Wisconsin?

Nor, can I let pass without comment the basic premise of your alleged empirical observation.  There simply is no "hypocrisy" in supporting the Colorado recalls after denouncing the Wisconsin recalls as "unfair." The "unfairness" argument failed to carry the day in three districts in Wisconsin. In the world as we would like it to be after pointing out the problems of promoting political recalls, as opposed to recalling discovered scumbags and crooks, the voters in Wisconsin would have rejected every recall by both parties. In the world in which we do live political recalls are now part of the process. Adjusting to changing realities is not "hypocrisy."

I'm a little confused as to why exactly you're claiming it's not hypocritical to have different views of the fairness of these recalls and the ones in Wisconsin.

Apperently, you are. My position is clear enough.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia 2013 - Results thread on: September 11, 2013, 11:27:28 pm
LNP now up 316 votes in Capricornia.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Colorado Constituents Recalling (2) State Senators for Gun Control Vote on: September 11, 2013, 01:06:36 pm
The NRA must go.

You seem to have a problem with both democracy and the Constitution. In a democracy, folks can vote with whomever they want for whatever reasons they choose, or no reasons at all. In the Constitution are provisions about the rights of the people to petition their elected representatives, and to speak freely and publicly about the political issues of the day.  The NRA is merely the expression of voters whom you don't respect exercising their Constitutional rights in a manner that frustrates your political interests.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Colorado Constituents Recalling (2) State Senators for Gun Control Vote on: September 11, 2013, 12:56:01 pm
Anyone want to take bets on how these new Republican Senators fair in 2014? Turnout will be different, so the recall numbers are not guaranteed to be repeated.

And there's a bit of hypocrisy on this board, when Wisconsin Democrats launched recalls, most Republicans here called that unfair. Double standards run amok.

Are you suggesting there is no "hypocrisy on this board" concerning Democrats who denounced the recalls as "unfair" after being silent concerning Wisconsin?

Nor, can I let pass without comment the basic premise of your alleged empirical observation.  There simply is no "hypocrisy" in supporting the Colorado recalls after denouncing the Wisconsin recalls as "unfair." The "unfairness" argument failed to carry the day in three districts in Wisconsin. In the world as we would like it to be after pointing out the problems of promoting political recalls, as opposed to recalling discovered scumbags and crooks, the voters in Wisconsin would have rejected every recall by both parties. In the world in which we do live political recalls are now part of the process. Adjusting to changing realities is not "hypocrisy."
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: September 05, 2013, 09:54:11 am
Teddy is wrong ...

Predictions are judged as predictions, not statements of fact. In general, possible outcomes are modeled on a bell curve. Mathematically, if 97-50-3 has some probability of occurring you simply cannot label his prediction "wrong

Hate to interrupt the conversation, but lay off Polnut and recall that sampling bias is a thing. The rest of that post is skeptic claptrap I had thought Fivethirtyeight had quashed well...

First of all, I am not particularly impressed with your opinion of the merits or demerits of some unstated argument by some sports prognosticator. If you think his arguments actually have some merit by all means share them.

It is not "skeptic claptrap" that another mathematical model of the British Columbia election showed a BC Liberal popular vote and seat majorities being something on the order of three- and two-sigma events respectively with the actual comfortable margins being achieved even more highly improbable.  Is it really "skeptic claptrap" to point out this objective fact because a four-sigma event just happened by chance, or was it the underlying model itself that was the "claptrap?"

Blaming "sampling bias" makes no sense. It is akin to arguing, "My model wouldn't have garbage out if it didn't have garbage in."  It would seem immediately obvious that if you want to model the variability of an election result that projection would model the variability of the sampling. Obviously, some hand-waving occurred. Turns out that the simplifying assumptions resulted in the model being simplistic.  That is just the objective fact, unless you want to argue sometimes lightening stricks the same person twice in one year.  

Another assumption in such models is that what happens during the balance of the election doesn't matter. Apparently, prognosticators can't model last-minute doubts about the Labor defeating John Majors, or the BC NDP returning to power after their previous stint, so they assume such events don't occur. Again, their models are counter-factual.

The person who has to "lay off" someone is Polnut. His formulation has every indication of him speaking ex cathedra when he is simply in no position to do so whatsoever.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia - 7 September 2013 on: September 04, 2013, 05:51:51 pm
Teddy is wrong ...


Predictions are judged as predictions, not statements of fact. In general, possible outcomes are modeled on a bell curve. Mathematically, if 97-50-3 has some probability of occurring you simply cannot label his prediction "wrong."  All you can say is that 97-50-3 way to the Coalition side of the bell curve distribution by your analysis.  Maybe, 97-50-3 is a two-, three-, or four-sigma event by conventional analysis. Then again, the recent victory of the Liberal party in British Columbia was modeled as a three-, or possibly four-, sigma event.  For you to imply that a 97-50-3 is an infinite-sigma event is, I suspect, simply wrong.

A fortnight, or so, after the election night we shall all see whose predictions turned out to more prescient than the others.

I would end by asking who is to really know whether those that predicted a BC Liberal victory were particularly astute political analysts or partisan Grit hacks putting their hearts before their heads?  Every Sunday somebody wins the football pool. Someone is going to win this contest. In hindsight, it will be because they correctly called the tossups  and/or they predicted the right "upsets."  Whether that was a matter of skill or dumb luck we'll never know. Personally, I'm in the camp of recognizing that what we don't know what we don't know. One of the things we simply don't know is who is going to win a number of close contests on Saturday.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-52/SD Mayor on: August 26, 2013, 11:41:47 am

Given the nature of the alleged behavior I'd rather have an explanation of what is linked before clicking it.
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