Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 31, 2014, 03:09:32 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 91
1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: what year would be the last that this seat would have been won by a... on: October 19, 2014, 11:33:05 pm
lets play a game and start drawing hypothetical districts. I'll start with a D+8 district


I'm guessing 1994 would be the last year an R would have won this, since Ackerman nearly lost that year and this is a point or two right to the 90s 5th.

1980?
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is This Acceptable Behavior? on: October 11, 2014, 07:44:09 pm
So, you live in a trailer park. We got it. My condolences.

That is exactly the prejudice that I wonder is acceptable.

You would think that the partisans here would consider it counter-productive to gratuitously insult entire classes of people for reasons of expediency if nothing else. My point is that there are folks here who simply don't seem to care. Had a sign with misspellings been taken in front of a homeless encampment folks here would be outraged to be mocking these poor unfortunate souls. By all accounts mobile homes are more substantial shelter than cardboard boxes. My condolences would be for the folks who live under bridges or over steam grates.

Nobody cares. Stop whining.

If "nobody cares" then why don't they just admit that the image is Photoshopped?
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is This Acceptable Behavior? on: October 11, 2014, 07:38:54 pm
The sign is a rather obvious work of Photoshop. [The background color changes between the words, which can't be explained by differences in lighting because the shadows, and areas around the shadows are quite uniformly lit.

The sign seems to be bent.

An explanation that simply doesn't make sense. Presumably, the variations in shading would be fairly uniform left to right, while in the Photoshopped image the transition from gray to a whiter background color magically circles around the top of the "T" before dropping up and down.
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is This Acceptable Behavior? on: October 11, 2014, 07:35:18 pm
So, you live in a trailer park. We got it. My condolences.

That is exactly the prejudice that I wonder is acceptable.

You would think that the partisans here would consider it counter-productive to gratuitously insult entire classes of people for reasons of expediency if nothing else. My point is that there are folks here who simply don't seem to care. Had a sign with misspellings been taken in front of a homeless encampment folks here would be outraged to be mocking these poor unfortunate souls. By all accounts mobile homes are more substantial shelter than cardboard boxes. My condolences would be for the folks who live under bridges or over steam grates.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Is This Acceptable Behavior? on: October 11, 2014, 12:07:51 am
There is a moderator here who has as his .sig a photograph of a sign that allegedly reads,

"Libety or Tranny?"

In the background is a trailer park.

The sign is a rather obvious work of Photoshop. [The background color changes between the words, which can't be explained by differences in lighting because the shadows, and areas around the shadows are quite uniformly lit. The handwriting is quite different for "T's" and "R's." And, the coloring for Libety is in the patriotic scheme of alternating red and blue letters on a white background while Tranny is in Black lettering.]

Is presenting Photoshopped images without labeling them as such acceptable behavior here?

Does the fake quote appeal to bigoted prejudices against folks who live in trailer parks? Would the same technique of assigning embarrassing quotes by use of Photoshop be deemed acceptable if the neighborhood featured homes with Menorahs in the windows, or such?

6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Premilinary 2013 Birth Report Released on: July 05, 2014, 02:36:02 pm
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr63/nvsr63_02.pdf

Compared to 2012, the number of absolute births was almost flat, with the decline of fertility almost offsetting the growth of population among child-bearing aged women.  What was striking is the absolute decline in the number of births to Asian/Pacific Islander women. Immigration ought to have driven an increase in the absolute number of births. Hispanic women saw almost no increase in births, which, again, must indicate another fall in fertility.

Again, the number of births continued to hover around four million a year.  With net immigration, age-peer groups should be in the order of five to six million. Unless the trends towards lower fertility, and lower net immigration, reverse themselves, or life expectancy dramatically increases, the population of the US rising to four-hundred million is still decades away, and five-hundred million is no longer a certainty.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India 2014 - Results on: May 17, 2014, 11:17:49 pm
It's hardly a slur to call Modi a fascist. He is one. Parts of India have also had democratically elected Communist governments.

Technically, a "fascist" is a person who advocates nationalizing the goals and direction of the means of production while leaving them in private hands is? Clearly, the term "fascist" has been bandied about here as a subjective slur as opposed to an objective technical description of his economic policies.

Technically, 'fascist' is a term debased of all meaning by common usage.

Your statement, if True, leads to the immediate conclusion that it is just as accurate to say that Modi is not a "fascist" than to say that he is.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India 2014 - Results on: May 17, 2014, 11:16:15 pm
oh my god you're back

Quick tip: Modi's economic policies are generally not what people who point out that he is a fascist murderer are focused on. That's kind of the point.

The fact that many people incorrectly use the term "fascist" doesn't make their ignorance of its technical meaning any less acceptable.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India 2014 - Results on: May 17, 2014, 10:23:43 pm
It's hardly a slur to call Modi a fascist. He is one. Parts of India have also had democratically elected Communist governments.

Technically, a "fascist" is a person who advocates nationalizing the goals and direction of the means of production while leaving them in private hands is? Clearly, the term "fascist" has been bandied about here as a subjective slur as opposed to an objective technical description of his economic policies.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India 2014 - Results on: May 17, 2014, 10:08:00 pm
Sbane, could you please stop hijacking this thread? This isn't the Indian equivalent of RedState: socialism isn't a slur and privatization is objectionable from the standpoint of many academic economists. We get it, you like Modi and hate the Indian left. You've made your point.

Privatization may very well be "objectionable from the standpoint of many academic economists," but, isn't the real issue here whether, or not, it is objectionable from the standpoint of the Truth? And, more to the point, since this is an Indian election the question is whether, or not, it is objectionable from the perspective of the Indian electorate.

Seems it isn't based on the most recent election.

Aside from the fact that Sbane seems more in line with reason.com than readstate.com, I find it odd that in a thread that seems dominated with poster after poster issuing content-less ad hominem slurs about Modi being a "murderer" and a "fascist,"  [A quick lesson. A communist is a person who believes in nationalizing the means of production without compensation. A socialist is a person who believes in nationalizing the means of production with compensation. A fascist is a person who believes in nationalizing the goals of the means of production while allowing it to remain in private hands. A market liberal believes that the owners of the means of production should set their own goals.] one poster has the audacity to take the side of the governing plurality in India, and question the validity of the ad hominems and is accused of "hijacking" the thread as a result.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Tasmania 2014 on: March 27, 2014, 12:07:53 am
Looks like 15-7-3


3  4 2 3 3
1  1 2 1 2
1  0 1 1 0

http://www.tec.tas.gov.au/StateElection/Results.html
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Crimean status referendum: March 16, 2014 on: March 16, 2014, 04:27:41 pm
Look here for info and results (First exit polls at 20pm local time, results at 22.30pm):

http://en.c-inform.info

BTW: Fabrizio Bertot, a member of the European Parliament from the EPP (Conservatives), who observes the elections in Crimea, told media that the election looks like elections in Italy and that he has seen no irregularities.

(some Western media outfits have reported on the glass boxes where voters throw their ballots into as being "not fair").

I don't see much of a problem with this, because people can vote in voting booths, then fold their ballots once or twice and nobody sees who they voted.

Then, again, because the ballot boxes are glass everybody can see who folded their ballots once or twice.
This is common in many European countries, ...

True, but, is not common in most European countries to have overwhelming military forces stationed in their country.

I'm surprised the ballot isn't printed with options "YES" and "no" mimicking another famous referendum.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Crimean status referendum: March 16, 2014 on: March 16, 2014, 02:55:40 pm
Look here for info and results (First exit polls at 20pm local time, results at 22.30pm):

http://en.c-inform.info

BTW: Fabrizio Bertot, a member of the European Parliament from the EPP (Conservatives), who observes the elections in Crimea, told media that the election looks like elections in Italy and that he has seen no irregularities.

(some Western media outfits have reported on the glass boxes where voters throw their ballots into as being "not fair").

I don't see much of a problem with this, because people can vote in voting booths, then fold their ballots once or twice and nobody sees who they voted.

Then, again, because the ballot boxes are glass everybody can see who folded their ballots once or twice.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Tasmania 2014 on: March 15, 2014, 04:59:07 pm
Here are my predictions:

Bass - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Braddon- 3 Liberal, 2 Labor
Denison - 2 Liberal, 2 Labor, 1 Green
Franklin - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green
Lyons - 3 Liberal, 1 Labor, 1 Green

Total: 14 Liberal, 7 Labor, 4 Green

I still stand by this prediction going into tomorrow.



So far, I'm a lot more spot on here than I was in SA...

What is the likely flow of preferences in Braddon?
15  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: How Democratic is your name? on: March 03, 2014, 01:55:10 am
75% of those named Hitler are registered Republican, while 75% of those named Gandhi or Jesus are registered Democrats.
Does that mean that Republicans are per definition three times more evil than Democrats? An interesting philosophical question.

Also, 82% named Obama are Democrats. 67% named Glory are Democrats. A clear majority of those named Hope are Democrats.


The Democrats do especially well with Lucifer.

Daffy had a strong Democratic lean as well.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 14, 2014 on: February 20, 2014, 01:13:44 am
I'm sorry then. I just had bad memories of what happened last time you taled about the subject.

I'll happily concede you than the OQLF (the so-called language police) is clearly over the top. While, on paper, the idea is good, on the application, they are clearly overzealous. But, in the 70's, it was needed since all stores were belonging to Anglophones and were refusing to give services in French. But right now, it's clearly overzealous and they should stick to check in services in French are avaliable in every shop, which was the first goal. Besides that, I don't see any "bureaucratic harassment". Most government forms are avaliable in English and most emigration is because it's not really possible to live in Quebec anymore as an unilingual Anglophone outside Montreal and Outaouais. It's quite difficult to live in an area where you are not talking the language of the majority. You're de facto excluded, since you can't communicate with them.

As for French fries, why they would do that? They didn't have to be forced, they translate the name of their products in the local language in most countries. It helps to identify the product.

And, really, it's possible to reach a perfect level in English with current system. Upper education isn't subject to that and I know plenty of people who decided to go to an English college or university for that reason. It's working well right now.


"But, in the 70's, it was needed since all stores were belonging to Anglophones and were refusing to give services in French. "

That sounds a little Orwellian to me.  I don't find it plausible that in a Province in which 80% of people speak French some stores weren't owned or managed by Francophones. It would seem that the shops that catered to Francophones would have more customers than those that catered exclusively to Anglophones.  Offering services in the indigenous language would be a competitive advantage that ought to have prevailed over time in a market economy.

What seems to be the case was that bilingualism had taken root in some areas.  That created a situation in which Francophone kids could seek employment in Alberta or Toronto, form families, and raise Anglophone kids, while Anglophone kids could move to bilingual areas of Quebec and raise bilingual Anglophones children.  The inevitable result of such a linguistic melting pot with a such a bias would have been English Canada.  This resulted in the rise of reactionary forces that wanted to vote to slow the process using the power of state.

In America, menus list things like "tacos" and "fajitas" in Mexican dinners, "cannoli" and "ravioli" in Italian dinners, "wantons" in Chinese dinners and "escargot" in French dinners.  I read a story a couple of years ago about an Italian dinner in Quebec that was threatened with fines and other horrors if it continued to sell, I think it was, "cannoli." Apparently, there is a French name for the dish.  Now, you might dismiss this an example of being "overzealous," but, I do not.  Bad causes attract bad people.  Only folks who are "overzealous" would self-select to enforce such a ridiculous policy.  Government of fanatics, by fanatics, and for fanatics is going to create fanatical outcomes.

By your admission an Anglophone could have shopped with ease in Quebec back in the 70's. Presumably, if nothing else, they could have worked in the same shops.  Now, by your own admission, it isn't even possible for them to live in Quebec. You agree with me. We merely disagree on whether, or not, this outcome was intentional, or not.  We both agree this is what is happening. I find this harassment. You don't. Kids growing up in Quebec now face living in the quite difficult situation of not speaking English if they seek employment in Alberta or Toronto. You agree with me. We merely disagree on whether, or not, this outcome was intentional, or not.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 14, 2014 on: February 19, 2014, 10:27:33 pm
Oh, great, the English suprematist troll is back again.

As an alleged "English suprematist troll" I would only note that I am much more sympathetic to their views that most.  Unlike most Anglophones, and unlike most Americans who had no opinion, I was routing for the referendums to pass, and was disappointed when they failed.  While my heart might sympathize with the cause, my head knows the linguistic future of North America. Government action might delay the inevitable, but, it can't stop it.


G.K. Chesterton wrote that he wouldn't want to governed by foreigners because it would mean being annoyed in hundreds of ways be could not begin to list.  I'm sure that French Canadians have a similar list for being governed by Anglophones. Voting to be governed by Francophones makes a certain sense. Designing a government where Anglophones are annoyed in thousands of ways that bureaucrats do list does not. At a certain you have acknowledge that what is happening in Quebec is state-organized harassment. And, at a certain point you have to conclude the purpose of the policies is simply to see to that Anglophones quit Quebec. That is simply wrong on so many levels.  To be lectured as a "suprematist" by those that support state-organized harassment of just about everyone who happens to not share their ethnicity, and harasses almost no one who happens to share their ethnicity doesn't even pass the smell test.

18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec: April 14, 2014 on: February 19, 2014, 06:52:43 pm
The PQ certainly isn't far-right or fascistic or anything, but it is kind of a bit racist. But then the Liberals are kind of entirely corrupt.

I certainly won't contradict it. There was always a segment of the base which was, but, until the 90's, the leadership wasn't pursuing policies in that sense.

Rene Levesque policies weren't racist (he may have been through, he pursued pro-gay rights polices despite being personnaly homophobic), but the Charter is.

And before someone brings language rights, English isn't a race.

I have a basic sympathy for those wanting to preserve their cultural identity and political autonomy. I have no sympathy for a movement that would deny parents the choice to educate their children in the language that will further their children's eventual quest for employment in places like Toronto and Alberta simply because of an accident of birth.

Comparisons with the FN are completely unfair. It is "mainstream" French parties that are fining their own citizens for using "le hoovercraft," and, compound nouns.  Heaven forbid someone say "passport number" rather than the more wordy "the number of the passport." Apparently, that nonsense has crossed the pond.

Frankly, the linguistic destiny of North America was sealed in Haiti over two centuries ago. [It was probably decided by the English decision to, and the French refusal to, sentence folks to transportation long before the Haitian uprising.]  Outlawing the local McDonald's from selling "French fries" because "French fries" isn't the French term reeks of desperate reaction from folks who know they are on the wrong side of history.  At least, they aren't demanding that local franchises be named "Fils de Donald," yet.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: South Australian Parliamentary Elections Thread (March 15, 2014) on: January 23, 2014, 12:08:53 pm
Let's suppose that Labor holds on -barely- to power this year.  In the long-term, would it be better for the Liberals to lose this year, with the certainty that four years hence they would be winning in a landslide due to voter fatigue with one-party rule?  

Supping your analysis is correct, wouldn't it behoove the Labor party to assure that it loses a close election least they face elimination four years hence? I find it odd that advice that presumably applies equally to both parties is only being directed towards one party.

In any case, I strongly suspect that both Labor and Liberal party partisans would reject this advice out of hand. Perhaps, they would even label it as concern trolling.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia 2013 - Results thread on: November 05, 2013, 05:45:25 am
I think it would have to be a fresh vote across the state, if that is what the court orders, not just those two electorates, mainly because it would be conducted as a fresh by-election. New candidates could nominate, or old ones drop out, so it would be impossible to align the new results with the old. The elected Senators would also likely be up for re-election, too, due to the quotas required. If those final two spots were the only ones declared open, the quota would be a third of the vote, not the one-seventh the others received, and would almost certainly result in one Liberal and one Labor Senator being elected.

Is this true? If you seat the folks already duly elected, you can count them as three full, and one full quota respectively. The Liberals could win one of the remaining two seats by taking 64%, or so, of the vote. Otherwise, they would fall short. Labor could conceivably win a second seat.

Quote
I could not imagine the Court of Disputed Returns going down that path. In the former precedent, being block voting, or multiple first past the post, the election of the other two would have not been affected by the mistake, and an election for one, rather than three, would not change quota, since the system relies on pluralities. In short, if the Court orders a fresh half-Senate election for WA, it will, I'm sure, need to be state-wide, not simply in the electorates where irregularities have been detected.

What is to stop folks from arguing that it is the composition of the Senate that has not been decided? Sure, the source of doubt is WA, but, then, again, the source of doubt is in only two of the seats in WA. What's the difference that makes a distinction between having the doubt localized to one state, or two specific seats within one state? What we know for certain is every declared winner in the Senate but two were in fact duly elected.  Why not rerun the entire Senate? Presumably, the rules call for the simultaneous election of half the Senate.

What is being argued here is an alleged lesser of two evils that is nevertheless quite evil. The precedent would be horrible: if you don't like the results of the election disappear some key ballots to force a new election.  There has to be a better way than failing to seat duly elected members. How about invalidating the second count, and commencing a third count with the results from the missing precincts from the first count being presumed accurate? Or, a referendum, PUP/Labor or SE/GREEN take your pick?  Or an election between those four candidates for two seats? Or, drawing straws between Shooters and Christians? Or, drawing straws between PUP/SE and LAB/GRN?
21  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Where does Missouri fit? on: October 14, 2013, 01:37:48 pm
Unfortunately, we have a lot of the Southern and Plains culture.  We're maybe 1/3 each: 1. proper civilized Midwestern (St. Louis mostly), 2. Arkansas/Tennessee style in the southern half of the state, and 3. sort of Kansas-like (rather than Iowa-like, alas) in the north.  So the State is about 2/3's horrific, 1/3 barely tolerable.

The presumes that folks from Arkansas and Tennessee are not "proper[ly] civilized." That is just an assumption.  I would hazard to guess that most folks can walk alone at night in most of rural Arkansas and Tennessee. Can folks walk alone at night in Chicago or Saint Louis? Most folks I know would consider roving gangs murdering each other by the hundreds a sign of barbarity, if not anarchy, rather than "proper civilization."
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia 2013 - Results thread on: October 10, 2013, 12:24:25 pm
So the full Senate result is
Coalition 17
Labor 13
Greens 3
Palmer 3
Family First 1
Motoring Enthusiast 1
Liberal Democrats 1
Xenophon 1

which makes the new Senate
Coalition 33
Labor 26
Greens 9
Palmer 3
Family First 1
Motoring Enthusiast 1
Liberal Democrats 1
DLP 1
Xenophon 1

(assuming no changes from the likely recount in WA)

PUP/ Motoring Enthusiast block 4
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Hessen State Election, Sept. 22, 2013 on: September 21, 2013, 11:48:03 pm
Collapsing Green numbers are due to the whole pedophilia thing?
The Green collapse is a national trend and extensively discussed in the "German elections" thread from post #1060 onwards. I suggest to leave and continue, respectively, the discussion there. However, if there are specific local factors in play (which I am not aware of, but Midas might know some), they of course belong here.

How could the allegation that the Green party is soft on pedophilia be anything other than relevant in every specific election in which they compete?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia 2013 - Results thread on: September 18, 2013, 12:35:52 am
It's a shame Rudd wasn't so gracious in his concession speech.

or Abbott is his victory speech.


In brighter (for democracy - despite increasing the LNP majority) news - Palmer is sliding and is now behind Ted O'Brien.

Back up by three.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australia 2013 - Results thread on: September 17, 2013, 02:24:02 am
Palmer lead in Fairfax down to 64 votes with 2,499, or so, ballots left to count.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 91


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines