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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: September 10, 2016, 05:44:18 am
Van der Bellen posters also get destroyed:












And, these were criminal acts, by criminals, who were attacking the very basis of democracy whose acts ought not of been given an English voice.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: September 07, 2016, 01:52:43 pm


It's poster destruction season again:

(defaced sign redacted)

Instead of "political power needs control."

it now says:


It doesn't matter what it now says. The defacement of the campaign sign was an attack the right of all peoples to have free and fair elections. Part-and-parcel of fair elections is the right of the candidates to present information to the voters. Defacing campaign signs, stealing lawn signs, and overt censorship differ merely by degree, not kind. It was a criminal act.

A large number of the posters here do not speak German. The defacement was fundamentally little more than an swastika followed by a series of hieroglyphs before you gave the criminal an English voice.

That was really disgraceful.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 25, 2016, 09:21:34 am
The L/NP are now ahead in Herbert by...














ONE F**KING VOTE! UGH!

Flipped back to 73 vote ALP lead.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Something strange is happening demographically-speaking on: July 17, 2016, 04:26:03 am
Looking at France and Hungary, it would appear that the seasonal rise in deaths was unusually small in 2013/14 and then unusually large in 2014/15.

This would relate to the annual rise in deaths that occurs beginning in October and peaking in January.  In France and Hungary, deaths remained high into February and March while in many other years deaths dropped off rapidly after January.

There has been a general rise in deaths over the past 10 years and 2014 was actually the odd one out on the trend.  It would make sense that 2015 would see a higher number of deaths from the same cause that didn't kill people in 2014.

Census Bureau international gateway

Looking at France for one-year age cohorts for 2010, 2015, 2020 there has been a huge increase in older persons due to the influx of those born after WWII, replacing those who weren't born during the war. The number of persons born in 1948 is about 55% greater than those born in 1943 (at the same age). The 48ers are now 67 and beginning to die at increasing rates.

There has also been a big increase in those born after WWI, compared to those not born in WWI, though those born after WWI would have borne some of the dying in WWII. At that age, large numbers die every year (getting close to 10%).

The median age for those over 65 has been declining in France due to the post-WWII generation entering the ranks. This will drive the death rate over 65's up, while continuing to increase the death rate for the whole population.

The closer the average/medium age of the 65+ cohort is 65 the lower that cohorts death rate will be.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the largest country that is 100% habitable? on: July 17, 2016, 04:09:31 am
Luxembourg?

Netherlands might beat it.

Any nation with beachfront is pretty much automatically excluded. Some setback from the "shoreline" is necessary.


I'll say "Vatican City."
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Question for Never Trump Republicans.......... on: July 17, 2016, 04:00:44 am
#NEVERTRUMP is about following your conscience and standing up to Priebus and Trump and saying this is not what the Republican party is or should be. Telling people to ignore the negatives and think about the positives doesn't stop it because such people have already decided that the negatives outweigh the positives.

It doesn't matter if calling everyone insulting names means nothing, or if the wall or the Muslim ban will never pass congress. That doesn't change the fact that Trump is a hot-tempered, racist, anti-first amendment individual who does not respect the constitution and is radically unqualified to be president. We can either stand up and vote him and his ideas down now, or vote for him and risk several decades worth of Trump like nominees that we're forced to vote for if there is no moderate D or L running.

I suppose you'll never see the irony of denouncing those who "cal[] everyone insulting names," and immediately proceeding to call Donald Trump a series of names including "racist." Whatever.

What is simply false is your assertions that a wall will never be built, or that there will not be a "Muslim ban."  That is just defeatist rhetoric that originated with those that have a vested interest in mass immigration both legal and illegal. The reality is that terrorist attacks such as in Orlando, Paris and Nice will drive public opinion until the defeatists and naysayers are forced to stand down. The only question is how many people have to needlessly die in the meanwhile.

Nor, are you correct in saying Donald Trump cannot build a wall or impose a "Muslim ban," whatever that means. The President has the legal authority to ban travel to and from any country at his discretion. And, the President can impose a virtual wall by using the military to defend the Southern border. Sure, obstructionists in the legislature can slow any structure, but, fundamentally, short of impeachment, they simply can't stop stopping illegal immigration.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 13, 2016, 05:18:37 am
The LNP has pulled ahead in Herbert by 34 votes.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 11, 2016, 01:01:01 am
ALP pulls ahead by 1% in Cowen.

Down to three.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 11, 2016, 12:53:57 am
ABC News projects another seat for the Coalition (Presumably Herbert.) That would be 77 seats.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 11, 2016, 12:25:36 am
In Capricornia, the LNP leads in the first batch of absentee ballots 597-588.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 11, 2016, 12:17:20 am
LNP pulls ahead by 930 votes in Flynn (50.59-49.41%.) ABC calls the race for LNP.  75 seats called for the coalition now. 

With Katter, that makes it semi-official.

12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 08, 2016, 11:18:18 pm
LNP takes 131 vote lead in Flynn.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 06, 2016, 09:43:30 pm
Hindmarsh is within 9 votes now.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trumpism on: June 28, 2016, 08:18:11 pm
http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-america-1455290458

Quote
But the central truth of Trumpism as a phenomenon is that the entire American working class has legitimate reasons to be angry at the ruling class. During the past half-century of economic growth, virtually none of the rewards have gone to the working class. The economists can supply caveats and refinements to that statement, but the bottom line is stark: The real family income of people in the bottom half of the income distribution hasn’t increased since the late 1960s.

During the same half-century, American corporations exported millions of manufacturing jobs, which were among the best-paying working-class jobs. They were and are predominantly men’s jobs. In both 1968 and 2015, 70% of manufacturing jobs were held by males.

During the same half-century, the federal government allowed the immigration, legal and illegal, of tens of millions of competitors for the remaining working-class jobs. Apart from agriculture, many of those jobs involve the construction trades or crafts. They too were and are predominantly men’s jobs: 77% in 1968 and 84% in 2015.

Economists still argue about the net effect of these events on the American job market. But for someone living in a town where the big company has shut the factory and moved the jobs to China, or for a roofer who has watched a contractor hire illegal immigrants because they are cheaper, anger and frustration are rational.

Add to this the fact that white working-class men are looked down upon by the elites and get little validation in their own communities for being good providers, fathers and spouses—and that life in their communities is falling apart. To top it off, the party they have voted for in recent decades, the Republicans, hasn’t done a damn thing to help them. Who wouldn’t be angry?

This article is long, but compelling.  It's one reason I think Trump will do better than the polls, and why he won't be on the losing end of a landslide a la Goldwater or McGovern.

This article ought to be viewed in the context that the WSJ signing onto the project of defeating Donald Trump by as large margin as possible solely for the purpose of sending a message to those who supported Trump in primaries. So, while the "message" of this article is that these folks ought to be heard, the policies of the WSJ is punish those same voters so that they shut up and do exactly as the WSJ dictates.

This is an even more brilliant dialogue of "Trumpism."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwK0jeJ8wxg
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump calls for AMEXIT on: June 28, 2016, 07:08:57 pm
I'm sure he'll soften his position on this in a few days or perhaps a few weeks. The "giant sucking sound" days of NAFTA are behind us, and it's definitely a net positive now, especially with the political goodwill that it buys. Mexico is a big country with a serious economy now, and killing free trade with Canada would simply be destructive. We've seen this play before - this is his opening offer, he gets a bunch of free media attention, then people will praise him in a few weeks when he says that he just wants to nibble away at the corners of NAFTA, not tear it up.

Free trade agreements such as NAFTA have two key outcomes. The first is that on average, there is some net economic benefit. The second, is that living standards tend to equalize [The latter effect has made NAFTA at net negative for America.]  That equalization of living standards between American/Canada and Mexico has a long way to go. Now, you may assert that the "giant suck sound" is over, but, I would submit that three thousand workers at Carrier Air Conditioning would strongly disagree.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George Will leaves GOP on: June 28, 2016, 06:57:02 pm
Good Riddance!

It was long overdue.

Lenin noted that the best way to control the opposition is to lead it. Liberal press organs such as the New York Times and Washington Post don't have "conservative" commentators because they want an informed readership. They want a fifth columnist among the conservative movement. Instead of hearing out conservative concerns and articulating their viewpoint, Will has lectured conservatives about how British Tories would govern, leaving real conservatives without a meaningful voice in places such as ABC News.

Note, I'm not saying George Will entered into a conspiracy. I am merely noting that he has been a useful idiot. I'm sure he actually believes what he writes.

In 2016 we are witnessing the breakdown of the kleptocracy model of the GOP. [Kleptocrats direct public funds towards themselves, kicking back funds to the political class, and intellectual class in order to persuade the average voter to passively accept kleptocracy.] Average GOP voters have refused to passively accept a blind eye turned towards illegal immigration, trade deals that export jobs, and endless wars that have made matters worse, not better. They have had the good sense to reject the advice of the George Wills of the world.

That George Will is quitting the party he sabotaged in a fit of pique is a sign of the progress average Republican voters have had in taking back their party.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Huey Long Lives!: Gov. JBE discussion thread on: February 06, 2016, 12:48:46 pm
^ Yeah, I see where you're going with that.

Its hard not to blame Barras for this mess. He stacked the committee with legislators that he knew would either have to do the people's work and support JBE or go back on their campaign promises. Its a really unfortunate and unfair situation to them, but I guess that what happens when you have hacks like Barras and Henry calling the shots. They should have respected JBE's agency more.

Its seems that our best hope, given that everything, is that the partisan Republicans on the committee end up being insincere when it comes to their Norquistian campaign promises.

Oh, its "Leger," by the way, not "Legier."

First of all, you have completely failed to understand the concept of "agency." "Agency" is necessary to have free will. Someone who has agency has moral accountability.  The same action committed by a teenager may warrant punishment while punishing a five year-old for the same offense would be completely unfair and unjust. No one has in the slightest denied JBE agency.  When you call duly elected Representatives the "people's enemies" you at least acknowledge their agency. When Gene Reynolds called duly elected Representatives "rubber stamps" for keeping their campaign promises he did not.

I have to say that your characterization that the member of the committee have to either, "...support JBE or go back on their campaign promises" is simply wrong. They have a third option, which is to do nothing at all. Then, the budget will be balanced by spending cuts. One merely has to ask which side is hurt worse? Personally, I don't think it is the Republican side. They can simply do nothing until JBE is more willing to take cutting spending seriously.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Huey Long Lives!: Gov. JBE discussion thread on: February 06, 2016, 03:09:56 am
I have to take strong exception to Rep Gene Reynolds claim that, "anything coming out of the Appropriations Committee will be no more than a rubber stamp of GOP talking points."

You sound a bit more optimistic than I'd be, but I really hope you're right. Despite the committee being woefully stacked in favor of the people's enemies, hopefully they'll put their talking points and partisanship aside.

Great observation!


Again, you make the same error as Rep Reynolds. The members of the committee are as much agents as other members of the House. Their agency ought to be respected. Part of what gives human being agency is their having principles and beliefs. If a candidate stands for office by saying that X, Y and Z are his principles by which he will govern, then, I for one, think that he ought to keep his commitment to his constituents back home. When they stood for office they had position that they stated to the voters [their "talking points,"] and they aligned themselves to the perceived ideologues of certain parties [their "partisanship."] Either, they were sincere, or, they were not.

When four members of the committee stood for office on a platform of, "No new taxes, no how, no way," either they were being sincere, or, they were not. I, personally, hope they were being sincere. And, if some Democrat ran on the platform of, "no cuts, no how, no way," I, likewise, hope they were being sincere. Being honest and sincere with the voters increases the efficiency of our democracy.  Asking them to "put aside their 'talking points' and 'partisanship' is, in the last analysis, asking them to put aside their constituents. Either their constituent's vote mattered, or it didn't.

Your comment above indicates you misunderstood what I was saying. I hope the above paragraphs clear up your misunderstanding.

When JBE proposed Walt Legier as Speaker, he did so with the understanding that Legier in turn would skew that committee towards JBE's position on taxes and spending. Someone else was elected Speaker, and, that person skewed that same committee against JBE's position. That's how politics works. JBE's whole pitch for Legier was to note to individual members that you can hop on the bandwagon or else be crushed by it. More specifically, you can support Legier or be assigned to insignificant committees. Now, certain members are finding out that hopping onto that bandwagon only made sense if it won.

What I see happening in Louisiana is the JBE wants taxes to increase, and, wants Republicans to take the political hit for raising taxes. If he wants to lead, then he ought to propose a budget with specific cuts, and specific tax increases, to balance out his proposed spending increases.


19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Huey Long Lives!: Gov. JBE discussion thread on: February 06, 2016, 12:23:07 am
If I were Barras, I'd be mad that Cameron Henry will still be essentially running the House. I'm not sure how JBE will pull the state out the mess its in if he's working with these fools:

Quote
Still, Henry’s 24-member Appropriations Committee has six Democrats . Seven of the members just joined the House, at least four of whom won election last fall on a ‘no new taxes, no way, no how’ platform.

Speaker Barras’ partisan tilt to committee leadership and assignments led state Rep. Gene Reynolds, the leader of the House Democratic minority, to quip that anything coming out the Appropriations Committee will be no more than a rubber stamp of GOP talking points.

I have to take strong exception to Rep Gene Reynolds claim that, "anything coming out of the Appropriations Committee will be no more than a rubber stamp of GOP talking points."

The basic presumption ought to be that all 105 member of House have agency. That is, they are human beings with free will whose actions are subject to moral accountability. If four members ran on a platform of,  "No new taxes, no way, no how," then they ought to strive to keep their campaign promises. If they keep their campaign promise, then, their actions exhibit integrity. To characterize acting with integrity as merely "rubber stamping GOP talking points" is profoundly denigrating those individuals as moral agents. The false, and repugnant, premise of that line of attack is that moral agency can only be achieved by agreeing with Gene Reynolds.

Louisiana has a substantial deficit. There are five basic approaches to solving it: lowering taxes while lowering spending even more, lowering spending, lowering spending while raising taxes, raising taxes, and raising spending while raising taxes even more. Jindal favored the first, while Edwards, judging by the agenda he laid out, favors the last. If some members were elected on a platform of no new taxes, I would only note that their position was ratified by the voters back home.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Mississippi 2015 Megathread on: January 21, 2016, 04:41:57 pm

This is just a committee. It still needs a vote by the full house to become official.

Expected. 2 seated Democrats would clearly be "too much" for Republican-dominated legislature...

Tullos had a legitimate concern, and, it was validated. In the Senate, the Democrat was declared the winner. If "partisanship" was the driving factor, why didn't the Republicans take both seats?



Simply"saved their face" - to seat both would be too naughty. Seating only one made them look objective. In addition - an idiot Sojourner was heavily disliked by many Republicans too....

Did it ever occur to you that Sojourner lost because her case was not persuasive, while Tullos' case was?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Mississippi 2015 Megathread on: January 21, 2016, 12:44:33 pm

This is just a committee. It still needs a vote by the full house to become official.

Expected. 2 seated Democrats would clearly be "too much" for Republican-dominated legislature...

Tullos had a legitimate concern, and, it was validated. In the Senate, the Democrat was declared the winner. If "partisanship" was the driving factor, why didn't the Republicans take both seats?

22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Mississippi 2015 Megathread on: January 21, 2016, 11:27:22 am

This is just a committee. It still needs a vote by the full house to become official.

It was official:

http://www.wapt.com/news/mississippi/miss-house-declares-gop-challenger-winner-of-contested-race/37548010
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Mississippi 2015 Megathread on: January 21, 2016, 01:30:43 am
Tullos wins.

http://wjtv.com/2016/01/20/panel-seat-gops-tullos-in-disputed-mississippi-house-race/
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Huey Long Lives!: Gov. JBE discussion thread on: January 11, 2016, 03:52:44 pm
Republicans have nothing to gloat - if neccessary JBE can always use veto pen. And it will always be sustained. In addition - Vitter's camp, that wanted Henry, was defeated much more convincingly then Edwards, and Barras, as former conservative Democrat and now "moderate" (by Louisiana standards) Republican, is acceptable to him. But he could do better offering as his candidate for speaker somewhat more conservative and more rural Democrat. Gisclair, Hill, Thibaut and Danahay come to mind immediately...

Again, it isn't about the ideology of the Speaker. It is about the ability to dole out committee assignments as a system of rewards and punishments. That threat held over the head of every Republican is over.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Huey Long Lives!: Gov. JBE discussion thread on: January 11, 2016, 03:10:17 pm
JBE is dealt something if a blow on his first day, as his choice for Speaker, Walt Leger, will stay as Speaker Pro Temp instead. Taylor Barras (R) will be Speaker.

I think the truth falls much closer to "humiliating defeat" or "devastating defeat" than "something of a blow."

Now, Edwards does not control who is offered what committee assignment. There goes his leverage. Edward's has argued that his train was left the station and that Republican legislators had better get on board, or face the prospect of being crushed. That train has been derailed.

Given Republican control of the House, its large majority in the Senate, and the current projected shortfall, JBE starts a bit of a caretaker.

Leger received a number of Republican votes on both ballots. I wonder what side deals they made for themselves. Hopefully, they'll serve on the committee overseeing dogcatchers, or such. Ideally, the Republicans will not be gracious in victory, and, each and every one of them will face recall, or worse.
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