Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 19, 2017, 04:28:03 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 96
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Most surprising loss on: July 04, 2017, 10:26:13 am
Nevada. The final results showed an opposite skew to the polls than just about every other state.

Clinton outperforming Obama in Illinois given the Trump trend in the upper .
Midwest is anomalous.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did the networks take so long to call Wisconsin? on: July 04, 2017, 10:18:47 am
Maybe because it was actually very close. It was called before Minnesota or Arizona, both of which had larger margins of victory for each candidate. Why Arizona took so long is more puzzling to me.

Arizona counts absentee/mail-in ballots postmarked by election day. It was clear Trump had would have a significant lead at the end of election night, but, whether, or not, the late mail ballots broke heavily to Clinton was an unknown unknown. The Decision Desk called it much earlier.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread on: June 25, 2017, 07:32:20 am
Tuesday was almost a sad day for American politics. Not since George Herbert Walker Bush ran on a platform of "Read my Lips! No new taxes!" and proceeded to raise them, and, since when confronted with his serial infidelity Bill Clinton postured on Sixty Minutes as a humbled, chastised man who had found a new commitment to fidelity has there been a larger fraud perpetrated on the electorate.

There is a reason Jon Ossoff was a staffer for Hank Johnson: they are fellow liberals. This was sanitized into non-existence. The Jon Ossoff on the campaign trial had nothing to do with the Jon Ossoff who would vote in Congress.

Then, there is the business of his residency. The Constitution states a member must be a resident of the state in which he is elected. Ossoff had every right to stand for any of Georgia's districts. But, he had no right to lie about it. He had every right to run as a Georgian, but, instead promoted several mendacities. First, he tried to claim he was merely a block outside the district. It was two miles. Then, when he realized the political error he made in not moving into the district he concocted some nonsense story about how he was "supporting" his fiancee. Was he too stupid to realize that in less than a week he was intending to move DC? If "supporting" her was that important he could have not stood for Congress. If her living two miles closer to campus was that important to him, he could have set up a second home. And, what about her "supporting" his run for office? She could have moved into the district with him adding as little as two miles each way to her commute to campus. Presumably, she was willing to relocated to DC, but, not across the county??? Give me a break.

What is doubly pathetic is how the press acted as Pravda to sell the phony moderate story. The definition of "moderate" is suppose to be something like, "as reasonable balance of positions from the Right, the Left, or neither." It isn't suppose to be, "A liberal running South of the Mason Dixon line."
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: US House Redistricting: Texas on: May 26, 2017, 10:34:32 am
The legislature should take the opportunity to end the baconmander in South Texas. Just make one district from the Northern edges, and fatten the bases. Compactness, not race, would be the motivating factor.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: May 10, 2017, 02:18:59 am
Liberal ahead by 559 with one box to go in Vancouver False Creek

By 560 after all boxes.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: May 10, 2017, 02:10:17 am
NDP slowly climbing in Richmond-Queensborough, but with 8 polls left, I'm not sure if it's enough

Done. Liberal by 263
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: May 10, 2017, 02:05:03 am
Liberal ahead by 559 with one box to go in Vancouver False Creek
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Since Ohio is a likely Republican state now, what's the new bellwether? on: January 11, 2017, 12:23:27 am
New Hampshire.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Single most in danger Clinton state of switching on: January 11, 2017, 12:09:17 am
Nevada.

The combination of a 1.2 billion dollar campaign [against a lesser funded opponent], a sitting Senate Minority leader, early voting, easy voting and a Democratic Justice department will not be duplicated.
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: App to Redraw the States and Change the Electoral Map on: January 04, 2017, 09:57:46 pm
A 538 R map isn't possible because Clinton won the popular vote. In fact Clinton would have to win at least 7EVs in any map, since you need a state where Clinton won by at least 2.6 million votes in order to give Trump all remaining states. Such a state would have at least 4 million people, which gives it at least 7 EVs.

You could add states.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sum Up 2016 In 1 Sentence on: December 31, 2016, 11:07:51 pm
In 2016, the voters of thirty-one states voted to make America great again!
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll for Republicans: Should Republicans be gloating? on: December 03, 2016, 11:26:33 pm
We should gloat. Specifically, we should gloat over all the predictions that Donald Trump won't win, and, can't win.  We should gloat until the euphoria wears off, maybe sometime in January, which is well beyond the "unbearable" level, which to many intolerant liberals is merely our very existence.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread on: November 22, 2016, 10:49:59 pm
BigSkyBob, can you name a time you've supported a Democratic election challenge? If so, what contest, and what was the outcome? If not, why not?


Yes, Fort Worth Texas Democratic primary, multiple races, ongoing.

Surely, you meant to ask me why I supported his challenge. To answer your question, because cheating is unacceptable. The particulars were that vote "harvesters" were engaging in illegal tactics such as tricking people into signing an electronic petition that was used to create unauthorized mail in ballot applications, removing ballots from mail boxes, giving improper assistance in casting ballots, and other irregularities.

In one instance a harvester came to a couple's home. The husband told the harvester that the precinct was just across the street so that he didn't need a mail-in ballot. The harvester told him that he had to have proof of the visit to be paid, so asked that the husband sign a form acknowledging the visit. He did. Then, the harvester asked him if his wife could sign a similar form. She did. On election day, the couple went to vote only to be told that they had already voted by mail. An investigator asked the couple, "Did you sign a yellow square form?" They stated they had. That yellow form was their vote. The harvester had stolen their votes.

Harvesters target the less educated and the less intelligent because they are easier to deceive. If someone tried that crap on me I'd have the police arrest them on the spot. I suspect you would do the same thing if someone did that to you.

Some of the contested races were within two dozen votes.

14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread on: November 22, 2016, 10:05:38 pm
How do we have a functioning democracy when one of the two main political parties disdains democracy, and doesn't even try to hide it anymore?
But there are, nationally, Democratic protesters refusing to accept the results, chanting: "Not my President!"

Instead, it's the Republicans here chanting: "Not my Governor!"

Protesting is one thing, because the protesters are citizens who merely do not like who was elected. Using legislative power to elect someone who was not elected by the majority of voters is a different ball game. That is a violation of democracy and should not even be considered.

But, seating the person who received the majority of votes cast by eligible voters is completely legitimate. That is why we have election contests.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread on: November 22, 2016, 10:04:11 pm
Austria recently had a Presidential election in which the losing candidate won the vote on election day, but, lost due to his opponent winning the mail ballots by a very large margin.  There were some irregularities in the handling of mail in ballots, so the Austrian Supreme Court voided the election and ordered a new election. The Austrian Supreme Court took the integrity of the election process seriously. Many of the posters here do not. It heard the challenge rather than rejecting it out of hand. The Austrian Supreme Court did not demand proof of a specific number of questionable ballots that exceeded the final margin. It erred in the favor of election integrity.

If Pat McCrory wishes to contest this election, which, I strongly support him doing, then at that point the burden of proof will rest firmly on him. If people here wish to claim that any election challenge cannot possibly be meritorious, then, that is a claim in which the burden of proof shifts firmly back to the denier. Those that wish to claim that Pat McClory does not have a legitimate case need to show proof that in combination the number non-citizens, non-residents, duplicate voters, and, fraudulent ballots cannot possible exceed the final count's margin.

Scott Favol stated that "we've been bussing people in for fifty years." Maybe that happened in North Carolina. Kentucky, Tennessee, and South Carolina had elections that weren't thought to be very competitive. Perhaps, some folks in those states engaged in same-day registration in North Carolina. Surely, everyone here finds such conduct illegal, immoral and unacceptable. Shouldn't Pat McCrory have the right to investigate that possibility?

One study estimated about a sixth of non-citizens were registered to vote. If that were proportional to North Carolina, the number of registered non-citizens would exceed the final margin by an order of magnitude. Surely, everyone here thinks citizens and only citizens are entitled to vote.   Shouldn't that possibility be investigated?

There was ballot harvesting. Some forms of ballot harvesting are illegal. Shouldn't that possibility be investigated?

The question is do honest election matter? To me, they do.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread on: November 22, 2016, 12:30:46 pm
The Daily Kos had an interesting, if hysterical article on a possible challenge by McCrory:


http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/22/1602733/-How-Pat-McCrory-is-preparing-to-ask-North-Carolina-s-GOP-legislature-to-steal-the-election-for-him

The errors in the article are numerous.

1) Election challenges are part of the process. To so grossly prejudge an election challenge before giving the challenger an opportunity to state his case is unfair, and, fundamentally, un-American.

2) Election challenges exist to seat the rightful winner. This is not an academic question. Hayes successfully challenged the apparent results of the 1876 elections arguing among other things that Blacks had been systematically denied the opportunity to cast ballots, and, had they been allowed to cast such ballots that he would have won a majority. The irony of the authors claims are thick.

3) Election challenges exist to stop the stealing of elections, not, steal elections. In the same election of 1876, a Democratic governor of Oregon disqualified the duly elected Elector who was pledged to the Republican nominee on a technically [which might have not been proper based on another technicality], and replaced him with not with another Elector pledged to the winner of Oregon, but, rather, an Elector who supported the Democrat. That was a blatant and transparent attempt to steal an election.  Had that challenge not been upheld, the Presidential election itself would have been stolen. Thankfully, we have remedies to such abuses.

4) The rightful winner in North Carolina is the person who received the most valid ballots. A valid ballot being a vote cast by a lawful resident who is a citizen, of age, not disqualified by felony conviction, etc., casting one and only one ballot on his own behalf for which he has not been paid. It is that count that ought determine the winner, and, not an official count tainted by the votes of non-citizens, fraud, duplicate voting, etc.

5) The remedies are clear enough. Just as in the election of 1876, as a political question, the judges of the challenge can award the election to rightful winner, or they could order a new election and let the electorate vote for Cooper if they think he truly won, or McCrory if they think he was the legitimate winner.

Finally, I would say, if only it were true! Finally, we may see some Republicans with a backbone saying "Enough!" to things such as allowing non-citizens to vote with a wink-and-a-nod.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread on: November 17, 2016, 10:14:39 am
So is it still possible for McCrory to win?    

The possibility is that McCrory keeps claiming that the election was rigged (But not the Senate race I guess?), and eventually the legislature will claim that since the election is fraudulent, they will pick the winner.


And I don't care how hackish you are, if you cheer that possibilty then you are a beyond a hack. You are a f**king fascist. Willing to overturn democracy if it means "Our Guy" remains in power.

McCrory's claim is that the presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial elections were "rigged" by a series of fraudulent stacks of straight-ticket-Democratic absentee ballots illegally submitted in a number of counties. McCrory's claim is that the people who orchestrated the fraud were unsuccessful in "rigging" the presidential election and senate election, but, successful in "rigging" the gubernatorial election.


I have to object to your labeling objecting to ballot fraud as "fascism." Name calling doesn't alter the fact that in a true Republic, the person entitled to take office is the person who received the most ballots by voters who were eligible [citizen's, of age, residents, non-disqualified by felonies, etc., casting one and only one ballot for which they were not paid to vote a certain way.] Submitting stacks of fraudulent ballots would be a fundamental assault on true Republicanism in favor of the type of "Republic" exists in third-world countries, as would voting twice, submitting ballots on behalf of third parties, including dead people , and non-citizens voting. If those who oversee elections turn a blind eye to such abuses, then, we live in a third-world style Republic, not a the true Republic the founding fathers envisioned.

Maybe McCrory wasn't able to overcome the fraudulent ballots that Trump and Burr did, but, that is a distinction that doesn't make a moral difference. If he took the plurality of lawful votes he is morally entitled to be the next governor.

18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 15, 2016, 10:29:21 pm
Looking towards the legislature:

There are still some 600k votes left to be counted, so results can still be swayed (particularly in King(200k)/Pierce(90k)/Snohomish(80k)).

House:
Ds are currently at a very tenuous +1. It could shift to no net change or even up to +4.

Of particular note, LD30 (Federal Way) just voted out both of its incumbent Rs, so D+2 there. R+1 in nearby LD31 (rural farms of King and Pierce), where longtime "independent D" incumbent Chris Hurst retired.

LD19, on the coast, swung massively to Trump. He most likely won this traditionally conservadem district. Anyway, Dean Takko upgraded to the senate and so his house seat was left open. It's currently a D hold, but oh so barely. Teresa Purcell (D) leads by 83 votes. Takko and the other D incumbent, Blake, won easily, but under-performed.

Then we have LD5 (Issaquah, North Bend, Snoqualmie), where both house seats are very close, Jay Rodne (R, inc) leads Jason Ritchie (D) by 3%, though Ritchie originally lead. Idk where the votes are in this district, but its not likely this will flip. Graves (R) leads Burner (D) in the open seat by 5.5%.

Finally, there's R-held, open seats in LD17 (newly annexed Vancouver and other PDX suburbs), where Vicki Craft (R) leads Sam Kim (Independent D) by 3%.

Senate
Litzow finally succumbed to the fundamentals of LD41 (Mercer Island, Bellevue, Sammamish), that most likely will have voted D+40 for Clinton. Lisa Wellman (D) leads by 5.5%.

Chad Magendanz (R), tried to upgrade his LD5 house position, but it looks like he's fallen short and trails incumbent Mark Mullet (D)by 2.5%.

The only other really competitive race is in LD28 (parts of Tacoma, Lakewood, JBLM), where incumbent Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) by 6%.

So D+1, but also keep in mind, I think the Ds will also pick up Andy Hill's seat, which won't be very competitive with a Trump presidency (another district that voted massively for Clinton).

Jim Walsh is now ahead of Teresa Purcell by 76 votes in LD19 [Lewis County had over a third of the ballots uncounted on election night.] Chad Magendanz is now within 1.38% in LD5, and Teri Hickey is now down 1.92% in LD30.
Jim Walsh is now 127 votes ahead, with most the outstanding ballots in Lewis County. He should win. Madgendanz is within 1.22%, and Teri Hickey is within  1.76%
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle on: November 15, 2016, 03:46:54 am
Looking towards the legislature:

There are still some 600k votes left to be counted, so results can still be swayed (particularly in King(200k)/Pierce(90k)/Snohomish(80k)).

House:
Ds are currently at a very tenuous +1. It could shift to no net change or even up to +4.

Of particular note, LD30 (Federal Way) just voted out both of its incumbent Rs, so D+2 there. R+1 in nearby LD31 (rural farms of King and Pierce), where longtime "independent D" incumbent Chris Hurst retired.

LD19, on the coast, swung massively to Trump. He most likely won this traditionally conservadem district. Anyway, Dean Takko upgraded to the senate and so his house seat was left open. It's currently a D hold, but oh so barely. Teresa Purcell (D) leads by 83 votes. Takko and the other D incumbent, Blake, won easily, but under-performed.

Then we have LD5 (Issaquah, North Bend, Snoqualmie), where both house seats are very close, Jay Rodne (R, inc) leads Jason Ritchie (D) by 3%, though Ritchie originally lead. Idk where the votes are in this district, but its not likely this will flip. Graves (R) leads Burner (D) in the open seat by 5.5%.

Finally, there's R-held, open seats in LD17 (newly annexed Vancouver and other PDX suburbs), where Vicki Craft (R) leads Sam Kim (Independent D) by 3%.

Senate
Litzow finally succumbed to the fundamentals of LD41 (Mercer Island, Bellevue, Sammamish), that most likely will have voted D+40 for Clinton. Lisa Wellman (D) leads by 5.5%.

Chad Magendanz (R), tried to upgrade his LD5 house position, but it looks like he's fallen short and trails incumbent Mark Mullet (D)by 2.5%.

The only other really competitive race is in LD28 (parts of Tacoma, Lakewood, JBLM), where incumbent Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) by 6%.

So D+1, but also keep in mind, I think the Ds will also pick up Andy Hill's seat, which won't be very competitive with a Trump presidency (another district that voted massively for Clinton).

Jim Walsh is now ahead of Teresa Purcell by 76 votes in LD19 [Lewis County had over a third of the ballots uncounted on election night.] Chad Magendanz is now within 1.38% in LD5, and Terri Hickey is now down 1.92% in LD30.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is it too late for Trump to pull ahead? on: October 06, 2016, 09:27:37 pm
This thread is based on an assumption that Donald Trump is behind. That is merely an assumption. Several current polls place Donald Trump in the lead. The LA Times tracker has given him a small but persistent lead. It's methodology is different than most polls. If it's methodology is correct, Trump may very well be in the lead. If it is flawed, then, maybe Donald Trump is currently behind. In 2012, the Times tracker was claimed to be an outlier. Turns out it projected Obama's final margin. Salt to taste.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: September 10, 2016, 05:44:18 am
Van der Bellen posters also get destroyed:












And, these were criminal acts, by criminals, who were attacking the very basis of democracy whose acts ought not of been given an English voice.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 2 Oct. 2016) on: September 07, 2016, 01:52:43 pm


It's poster destruction season again:

(defaced sign redacted)

Instead of "political power needs control."

it now says:


It doesn't matter what it now says. The defacement of the campaign sign was an attack the right of all peoples to have free and fair elections. Part-and-parcel of fair elections is the right of the candidates to present information to the voters. Defacing campaign signs, stealing lawn signs, and overt censorship differ merely by degree, not kind. It was a criminal act.

A large number of the posters here do not speak German. The defacement was fundamentally little more than an swastika followed by a series of hieroglyphs before you gave the criminal an English voice.

That was really disgraceful.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 25, 2016, 09:21:34 am
The L/NP are now ahead in Herbert by...














ONE F**KING VOTE! UGH!

Flipped back to 73 vote ALP lead.
24  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Something strange is happening demographically-speaking on: July 17, 2016, 04:26:03 am
Looking at France and Hungary, it would appear that the seasonal rise in deaths was unusually small in 2013/14 and then unusually large in 2014/15.

This would relate to the annual rise in deaths that occurs beginning in October and peaking in January.  In France and Hungary, deaths remained high into February and March while in many other years deaths dropped off rapidly after January.

There has been a general rise in deaths over the past 10 years and 2014 was actually the odd one out on the trend.  It would make sense that 2015 would see a higher number of deaths from the same cause that didn't kill people in 2014.

Census Bureau international gateway

Looking at France for one-year age cohorts for 2010, 2015, 2020 there has been a huge increase in older persons due to the influx of those born after WWII, replacing those who weren't born during the war. The number of persons born in 1948 is about 55% greater than those born in 1943 (at the same age). The 48ers are now 67 and beginning to die at increasing rates.

There has also been a big increase in those born after WWI, compared to those not born in WWI, though those born after WWI would have borne some of the dying in WWII. At that age, large numbers die every year (getting close to 10%).

The median age for those over 65 has been declining in France due to the post-WWII generation entering the ranks. This will drive the death rate over 65's up, while continuing to increase the death rate for the whole population.

The closer the average/medium age of the 65+ cohort is 65 the lower that cohorts death rate will be.
25  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What's the largest country that is 100% habitable? on: July 17, 2016, 04:09:31 am
Luxembourg?

Netherlands might beat it.

Any nation with beachfront is pretty much automatically excluded. Some setback from the "shoreline" is necessary.


I'll say "Vatican City."
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 96


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines