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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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251  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: College Football 2016 on: September 05, 2016, 09:03:43 pm
FSU-Ole Miss has been appalling. Just appalling. FSU's much hyped OL (one of the most experienced and best recruited in the nation) has been leaky as a sieve. Our new QB is sloppy and our also much hyped secondary is somehow always allowing at least one player be open for Chad Kelly to throw long to.

I'm going to go...somewhere. Somewhere I don't have to see this for a while. Ugh. Maybe this will be like 2014 where stellar halftime adjustments happen.

EDIT: Five minutes in to the 2nd half. FSU has scored 17 unanswered points. I apologize for everything I said and bow at the feet of Jimbo, ultimate halftime corrector.
252  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Tropical Storm Hermine set to hit the East Coast on: September 01, 2016, 12:35:56 pm
Classes now cancelled basically from Gainesville north and in counties on the Gulf coast.

Which means everyone is now prepping for hurricane parties!
253  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Tropical Storm Hermine set to hit the East Coast on: August 31, 2016, 11:08:55 pm
Hoping for a hurricane day tomorrow. Most of the coastal cities have already had things cancelled. Smallish storms like this one don't cause much trouble for Floridians and are usually just taken as an opportunity to party.
254  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which SEC college counties will Clinton win? on: August 26, 2016, 03:03:33 pm
I say 9/14 with the exceptions being Lafayette, Brazos, Lee, Washington and Knox

8/14, add Tuscaloosa to the list of exceptions. Romney won it by about 17.5% in 2012.

You should do a series of this with the other major conferences.

I would imagine the Big 12 is the only other major conference besides the SEC where Trump would have much chance of winning any.

There will be a few. At a very quick glance Romney won Tippecanoe County, Indiana (Purdue, Big 10), Montgomery County, Virginia (Virginia Tech, ACC), Maricopa County, Arizona (Arizona State, Pac 12) and (of course) Salt Lake County, Utah (Utah, Pac 12). He was also close in St. Joseph, Indiana (Notre Dame) and I'm sure there are a few more that I forgot about.
255  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida 2018: Mike Huckabee for governor? on: August 25, 2016, 02:50:27 pm
Yes, you read correct. Looks like the Huck is eying on a run for governor in Florida: http://floridapolitics.com/archives/217601-mike-huckabee-florida-governor

According to Wikipedia, he's leading in a primary poll, while Crist is ahead in the Democratic field. Would be interesting to see a 2018 gubernatorial race between the Huck and Charlie.
That poll also shows Pam Bondi, who ruled out a run, in second place.

Sure. Pam Bondi has slightly more name recognition than the rest of the cabinet. She doesn't have anywhere near enough friends in the party or the donor class to fight a serious primary campaign. It would be like Rick Scott running except without any money.


^^Of course, I was firmly convinced that Rubio wasn't running for reelection until a week before he made his announcement when someone in the know told me that it was actually more than media hype, so who knows?

To be fair I don't think ANYONE had heard anything to the contrary until a week or two before he had announced it. You're right about Huckabee and Putnam, of course. Doesn't mean that the forum and the media won't chase any wild rumors they hear.
256  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Speaker in 2017 if Dems pick up 15-20 seats on: August 23, 2016, 01:33:54 pm
The only viable leadership candidates at the moment are Ryan, McCarthy, and Scalise. The Freedom Caucus would prefer Scalise but are just fine with Ryan and they don't have the votes or allies to replace him even if they wanted to do so.

Never forget that the Freedom Caucus people are still politicians who want power and reelection; they just won't suicide-bomb the GOP because they're not getting their way. They are only now slowly getting out of the dead-end committee positions and crappy speaking times Boehner had forced them into by the end of his term. Agreeing to Ryan getting in was the beginning of a rapprochement that they won't throw away for no reason; the whole GOP caucus understands that Ryan is a good thing for them and is promoting a more proactive and positive legislative vision than the GOP have had since the 90s.
257  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2016 House of Representative Elections on: August 21, 2016, 11:46:17 pm
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - NINE SEATS

[14] 1184AZ of Washington
Labor Party

[9] Abraham Washington of New York
United Alternative

[3] ClarkKent of Connecticut
Federalist Party

[7] Classic Conservative of Texas
Federalist Party

[11] Clyde1998 of Massachusetts
Labor Party

[2] dfwlibertylover of Texas
Federalist Party

[13] evergreen of Illinois
Labor Party

[1] JohanusCalvinusLibertas of Indiana
Federalist Party

[12] NeverAgain of Virginia
Labor Party


[10] Peebs of North Carolina
Labor Party


[6] Santander of Alabama
Federalist Party

[4] Shua of Alaska
Freedom and Solidarity Party

[8] Talleyrand of Texas
Nationalist Party

[5] Write-in: Seatown
258  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2016 Fremont Senate Voting Booth on: August 14, 2016, 12:58:28 pm
1.Potus
2.Write-in:Seatown
259  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: College Football 2016 on: August 13, 2016, 12:28:54 am
Honestly I don't know too much outside the ACC and SEC, but it turns out I have a lot to say on the ACC.

ACC:

Atlantic:

Clemson continues to be amazing. They're returning enough on offense, including Watson, to make winning out for them seem almost like a fait accompli. Almost. With what they've lost Clemson this year strikes me as the sort of team that really really can't afford any injuries, especially on their defense. Of course, the risk there is going 11-1 or 10-2 at the worst.

It may be the homer in me talking but I'm buying FSU this year. We return just about as much as Louisville (almost everybody) and getting a year older should improve FSU's biggest offensive sticking points at OL and QB, whether Maguire or Francois end up getting the job. Personally I think Francois is going to end up with the job and while he probably won't be another Jameis he should be much better than what we had last year. Also, I'm going to go out on a limb and say FSU will be the more together team on week 1 and that'll put us over Ole Miss, which should be another great game.

Louisville should do well; with their coach and what they're returning there's no way they wouldn't be good. However, I just don't think they have the raw talent that FSU or Clemson do and won't get their problems sorted out in time to actually have a chance of winning the division.

As for the rest, I think Syracuse is underrated. They played better than their Win/Loss ratio last year and they're returning a lot as well. Plus, their new coach Dino Babers is really good and fun. I never know anything about NC State; they're not interesting to watch and they always seem to go 7-5 though so I think they'll be alright. Boston College is Vandy, but more so. They'll have a top 10 defense, bottom 10 offense. Wake Forest is trash.

1a. Clemson
1b. FSU
3. Louisville
4. Syracuse
5. NC State
6. Boston College
7. Wake Forest

The Atlantic is decided in the FSU-Clemson game (where Clemson is the slightly better team but FSU has home field advantage) and the winner of the Atlantic wins the ACC. I call it now as Clemson winning it all.

Coastal:

The Coastal is a mess, like usual. It feels like every year there's a serious risk that the whole division will go 4-4. UNC was underrated last year, they'll probably stay good enough to win the division this year. Like NC State they're kind of a black hole for me; I don't think I saw any of their games last year besides USC(e) and Clemson. I'm kind of bullish on Miami this year too though; Kaaya is easily the Coastal's best QB and Richt might be able to take advantage of Miami's good recruiting classes in ways Golden couldn't. VT goes in over Pitt because I like VT's coaches and football culture and just don't care for Pitt. Virginia Tech also gets points for having the most redneck game of the year against Tennessee at a NASCAR track. That being said, experts are apparently high on Pitt this year and they DID outperform expectations quite a lot last year. I could see any of these four win the Coastal but will give UNC the benefit of the doubt.

After going from winning the division to winning 3 games (but SOMEHOW beating FSU) I'm terrified of even thinking of Georgia Tech. They might win 2 games or they might go to the playoff. Duke has the advantage of a good coach but they suffer from a bad case of being Duke. Not great recruiting and not great turnover means they'll probably continue to slowly regress towards where they should be as a small, high-standards basketball school. Virginia should improve, but they just start from such a low and with such a crap roster that I think it'll take them a few years to actually show life. At least they're not Wake Forest.

1. UNC
2. Miami
3. VA Tech
4. Pitt
5. Georgia Tech
6. Duke
7. Virginia
260  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Norbert Hofer/Donald Trump divide on: August 10, 2016, 02:00:17 pm
This is a stupid thread.

That being said, an American ultra-nationalist in office can do things like destabalize the world economy, reshape trade structures, or start wars that could negatively effect Austria. Trump is also a Republican and Europeans even on the far-right seem to have a knee-jerk negative reaction against the Republican party since the Bush years.

Nothing an Austrian President could do would ever directly impact Americans. Austria is a complete non-entity that ranks just below Luxembourg in modern relevance. There is no reason that Americans should know about or care about anything that goes on in that godforsaken place unless they plan to go skiing in the Alps.
261  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Unnamed Pollster: Clinton+2 on: August 09, 2016, 11:46:20 am
As I've said before, even if Florida votes for Clinton it won't be by 7 or 8 points. There just aren't enough swing-able people to bring either party under around 46% in this state. I still think Clinton will win it, but it won't be by a huge margin.
262  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rubio: No abortions for Zika-infected women on: August 06, 2016, 07:36:44 pm
Since when are Democrats fans of eugenics? Anyway, this is exactly what you'd expect from a pro-life candidate and won't move the needle no matter how much the Democrats talk about it.
263  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Let's Play Crisis In The Kremlin on: August 05, 2016, 10:24:16 pm
Do we sign up as a party/person?

He plays the game, we tell him as a group what decisions to make.
264  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Suffolk: Clinton +4 on: August 04, 2016, 12:32:21 pm
One area that Hillary can clobber Trump with is the concern that Floridians have with Zika virus. An overwhelming majority of citizens claim to be very or somewhat concerned, yet Trump states Gov. Scott has it "under control."

Further, Suffolk leans Rep, so a 6 point head to head lead for Hillary is actually quite large.

Florida mosquito season will be long over by election time. Even if there are ongoing cases once the main danger has passed it won't register as a serious issue for voters.

There's no chance of Florida going for Hillary by 8; the GOP base in the state just won't bend that far. If she wins by 8 nationwide I'd expect her to win FL by 5 or 6 at most.
265  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: 1019 - Maximum Sentences for Marijuana Act of 2016 on: August 03, 2016, 06:00:15 pm
*shouting from gallery* Free the reefer!

(Or at least remove the federal prohibition so that regions can legalize it without federal encroachment.)

That second part would be constitutional. The rest? Telling the regions what they can and cannot ban is legally uhh...lets just say it provides a good example of why governments hate federalism and always try to take away powers from states and local governments.
266  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump tells @PhilipRucker he won't support Paul Ryan, John McCain in primaries on: August 03, 2016, 12:26:01 pm
After thinking about the implications of this a bit more: maybe Trump DOES have a plan here. Ryan is the clear, well-liked leader of the House Congressional Caucus. He's also the standard-bearer of the fiscally conservative wing of the GOP. McCain is a well-known Senator and former presidential candidate.

If they lost who would be the most vocal, well-known critic of Trump in the party? It wouldn't be anyone else from the House; Ryan's loss would throw the whole caucus into chaos. Mitch McConnell isn't popular or charismatic enough to oppose Trump and no other Senator is well-known enough to serve in that role. Eliminate Ryan and McCain and you basically eliminate all vocal Congressional opposition to anything Trump says.

267  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: LLR's Atlas Diplomacy I: Battle Over America on: August 02, 2016, 05:48:47 pm
I'll join as Cascadia if its still open
268  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If you could make one change to reduce partisan gridlock what would it be? on: August 02, 2016, 12:08:24 am
Unpopular but correct answers:

Get rid of CSPAN. Have the speeches made in the House and Senate be actually aimed at other members instead of primary voters at home.

Alternately, force members of Congress to spend more time in DC and away from their constituents.  Currently the only time congressmen talk to members on the other side of the aisle is during committee meetings; proximity leads to understanding and friendship and there should be more of it.
269  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Help! I don't understand! (where can I find "Id. at *89."?) on: July 31, 2016, 09:26:47 pm
SteveRogers is correct in what you should do. "Id." means "the same". It's an abbreviation for the last fully written citation. If there's no page number after the Id. it means they're citing something on the same page as the previous citation.
270  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Johnson Says He Will Appoint Justices Like Breyer and Garland on: July 31, 2016, 09:19:47 pm
None of the four "major"/"main minor" candidates this year are pro-life. Trump is paying really cheap lip service. Clinton, Johnson and Stein are pro-choice.

So you can either vote for Trump or you can stay home.



That is a good point. I couldn't care less about the abortion issue as I'm not female and don't want children. But for those it matters, makes you wish Ron or Rand Paul was in there.

Also: I want Andrew Napolitano in there for Scalia's spot.  I want a strict Constitutionalist.

You call a man who would bring back Lochner as natural law a "strict Constitutionalist"? Scalia is rolling in his grave.
271  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: South African Political Parties on: July 31, 2016, 09:07:26 pm
DA (White non-communist foreigner who is not receiving ANC patronage)
272  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Will your county vote for Trump? on: July 31, 2016, 10:50:54 am
Duval, FL is a really close one. If Trump wins Florida my county will be one of the places he needs the votes. I haven't seen any enthusiasm for him here but since it hasn't been won by the Dems in years I'll say Trump wins it 48-47.5.
273  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Where have you flown this year? on: July 28, 2016, 12:55:15 pm
Since January?

DEN-JAX

JAX-DCA
274  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who are you voting for in the 2016 General Election? on: July 28, 2016, 12:15:21 pm
It depends on how the polls look. If Hillary is in serious danger of losing Florida I guess I'll vote for her. Otherwise, Johnson. Voted Johnson since I don't believe Trump has a viable path to winning Florida.
275  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Franklin Foer: the DNC hack is Watergate, but worse on: July 27, 2016, 11:06:59 am
So is the Cold War still over or is Putin still the next Hitler? The Democrats keep changing every four years, I can't keep up Tongue.

It's not like the GOP is any more consistent right now. Four years ago Romney was calling Russia our number one geopolitical threat and now we have the most pro-Russian candidate since Henry Wallace.
Well yes, because most Americans are pro-Russian.

Where are you getting this? Gallup says otherwise:

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