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251  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Rubio vs. Beruff vs. Wilcox vs. Murphy vs. Grayson on: June 23, 2016, 04:18:19 pm
^We'll see on election day whose posts were more ridiculous. Smiley

Okay, so who would a sane, logical person trust more? The myriad of posters who live in or near FL who know for a fact that your inane accusations are false, or a Tennessean who has never been to Florida and just enjoys sharing his conspiracy theories?

Also applicable.

It's pretty sad that despite not living in Florida TNVolunteer still knows more about Florida politics than most of you!

If that was true it would be sad! Luckily it's an absurd suggestion.
252  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Rubio vs. Beruff vs. Wilcox vs. Murphy vs. Grayson on: June 23, 2016, 02:44:47 pm
^We'll see on election day whose posts were more ridiculous. Smiley

Okay, so who would a sane, logical person trust more? The myriad of posters who live in or near FL who know for a fact that your inane accusations are false, or a Tennessean who has never been to Florida and just enjoys sharing his conspiracy theories?

Also applicable.
253  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sabato Crystal Ball Megathread on: June 23, 2016, 10:33:27 am
No tossups? Really Sabato? Not even North Carolina?

Sabato isn't doing toss-ups.
254  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Rubio vs. Beruff vs. Wilcox vs. Murphy vs. Grayson on: June 22, 2016, 08:56:39 pm
TN Volunteer, please quit posting about Florida politics until you manage to sit outside one of the top Florida politicos office for eight months. Then you'll know what is going on.

Good god, this so much. TNVolunteer nearly all of your Florida posts have been wildly wrong and completely baseless.
255  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's Campaign to End Early on: June 21, 2016, 07:42:13 pm
Trump appears to be under pressure.

But although I do not want to suggest it, we now have mentally ill members of the community trying to shoot him.

In my experience, I have found that for every person trying to kill you publically, there are 10 times that amount who are planning it.

If you are out there, and want to kill Trump, please do not use this thread as an inspiration to shoot him.

But my question is "Can he possibly be dumped at the Convention?", especially now that he has a majority of delegates.

Surely if the Republicans dump him, it will be the end of the party.

Why do you have experience with multiple people trying to assassinate you?
256  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which ticket is more palatable? on: June 18, 2016, 10:49:17 am
Just based on personality and ideology I'd want Trump/Christie. But thinking about it further, Christie has demeaned himself so much to cater to Trump's whims that I have to go Trump/Gingrich. At least Gingrich has shown a backbone and willingness to stand up for himself when he disagrees with Trump.
257  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: "Must Win" Trump States on: June 17, 2016, 10:47:41 am
Only Ohio. I've seen maps of Trump winning without FL, PA, and the others but every map assumes Trump wins Ohio. It's not likely that he wins without FL or PA, but paths do exist. Without OH? Nah.
258  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Marco Rubio re-enter the Florida Senate Election on: June 16, 2016, 07:22:20 am
There is way too much in motion at this point for him not to. Getting CLC to say he'll drop out if Rubio runs was a big coup.

Why? CLC is in the mid single digits in the polls and would lose most if not all of that to Rubio if he joined the race. CLC is a nonentity.
259  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you own a car? on: June 15, 2016, 03:30:41 pm
My workplace is a 40 minute drive by car from where I live. The only homes in walking distance are either in the ghetto or are several hundred thousand dollars above my paygrade. If you live in a Florida city you have a car, a guaranteed ride, or you're unemployed.

Sounds like Jacksonville

It IS, but it could just as easily be describing Orlando, Tampa, or (especially) Miami. The Miami commuting situation is legendarily bad.

I probably could live closer, but it's worth the drive to stay at a cheap place a block from the beach. Jacksonville is a great place if you're willing and able to drive a few minute to go anywhere.
260  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Rubio schedule indicates he's not running on: June 15, 2016, 03:16:24 pm
First David Rivera, then Jeb Bush...will Rubio throw yet another "friend" other the bus for political gain? Yikes!

Ah, yes, because Hillary Clinton is such a majestic and loving human being. Roll Eyes

1. Rivera was a corrupt sleaz, no one has an obligation to defend a corrupt sleaz in politics.
2. Bush failed to understand the number one rule of anything: Those who have "proteges" will eventually get replaced by them. (EX: Bibi defeating Moshe Arens, President Santos abandoning Alvaro Uribe's agenda, etc...etc.. I can cite examples all day)
3. In the case of CLC, I agree, however.


Also, this is a good article about mythical nature of Rubio's apprenticeship under Bush:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/marco-rubio-slew-jeb-bush-mentor-2016-213652

"It’s certainly true that Bush and Rubio admire and support one another....but “mentor” in the traditional sense of working closely with a younger colleague? That did not really happen.

...Rubio describes Bush in his 2012 memoir An American Son as the man he admires most in Florida politics, calling him a “one-man idea factory.” But Rubio uses neither “mentor” nor “protégé” in his discussions of the governor. "


EDIT: Forgot to mention...Bush, Arens and Uribe all have something else in common...they tried to fight back and lost more to their so-called ex-proteges then they ever could've gained.

The view of Rubio as Bush's protege doesn't really come from his book. Bush was a powerful governor and Marco (as Speaker of the House) was perceived by the political class as being inconsequential and little more than an extension of the Governor's office. Bush was seen as encouraging and helping Rubio's career along; is it that much of a stretch to call him Rubio's mentor? Even if they weren't personally close, Bush was both Rubio's superior while they were in Florida office and someone who seriously influenced Rubio's politics and career. Isn't that what a mentor is?

Also, that article is full of crap tangential to this topic. Rubio was always a rising star? He left office practically unknown! The short term limits on Florida legislators doesn't lend itself to establishing name recognition. He says himself that half his neighbors didn't know him when he started his senate run. He was a guy who caught lucky breaks in a lucky year who just happened to have the charisma to take advantage.
261  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you own a car? on: June 15, 2016, 02:56:32 pm
My workplace is a 40 minute drive by car from where I live. The only homes in walking distance are either in the ghetto or are several hundred thousand dollars above my paygrade. If you live in a Florida city you have a car, a guaranteed ride, or you're unemployed.
262  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Trump an undercover Russian agent? on: June 15, 2016, 02:43:31 pm
No. Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

But yeah, he's certainly got some advising him.
263  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: June 14, 2016, 06:07:33 pm
I need to know how my secret invasion on Tonga went Sad

So THAT'S the secret of the "Japanese trade mission"! I knew it!
264  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: June 13, 2016, 09:01:54 pm
Wow! Your timing there was really really good.
265  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: June 13, 2016, 08:59:20 pm
*bursting with anticipation*

I am too. It would be sad if this game petered out when it was starting to heat up.
266  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump suggests “sports stars” night at the Republican National Convention on: June 11, 2016, 03:28:11 pm
College sports no doubt, which seems to be a growing trend based on people wanting to see white people compete before they all get cut.

The more passionate, genuine, and rapidly growing sport vs the soulless, corrupt, and rigidly corporate NFL machine? I'm not sure Trump fans would dislike the comparision of the two in relation to the candidates, especially since college football rules supreme in Trump country in the South and Midwest.
267  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: So I went to a Trump rally last night ... on: June 11, 2016, 07:27:25 am
One thing I noticed when I went to a Trump rally was that he really lets the crowd influence his speech. So if you had yelled "TALK ABOUT THE WALL" he probably would have gone off on a five minute rant about it. If you've got an obedient and boring crowd you'll have a (relatively) boring Trump.

And yeah, when I went I didn't see many minorities either. I counted 5 blacks out of seven or eight thousand and 2 were removed as protestors.
268  General Politics / Economics / Re: Know the Signs: Obama Derangement Syndrome on: June 09, 2016, 06:23:09 pm
The unemployment poll I could justify as a genuine misunderstanding about the extent of decline in the labor force participation rate. The stock market being lower? I've got nothing.
269  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Susan Collins: Not Ruiling Out Voting for Hillary Clinton on: June 09, 2016, 05:08:15 pm
She has more to lose endorsing Trump than Hillary, but I think she'd be better off staying silent.

Voting for and endorsing someone are very different things. She might be saying she won't endorse anyone and will privately vote for Hillary.
270  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: June 09, 2016, 01:17:53 pm
Is the turn over?
271  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will these states vote in comparison to the national average? on: June 08, 2016, 03:30:11 pm
More D:
FL
WI
MI
VA
CO
NV
NH

More R:
OH
PA
NC
IA

Florida has not voted more D since Jimmy Carter.

[img width=760 height=570]http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/55918b77ecad04a3465a0a63/nbc-fires-donald-trump-after-he-calls-mexicans-rapists-and-drug-runners.jpg[/ig]

Trump has deep roots in Florida, and he performed well in the state during the primaries. There is no legitimate reason to think that he will fare worse than other Republicans in the state.

Hispanics.

We're talking Florida, not New Mexico, Arizona, or Nevada. In the latter states, Hispanics are Mexican-Americans who are (supposedly) heavily anti-Trump. In Florida, Hispanics are more diverse, and some have historically supported GOP candidates (e.g. Cubans). Factor in Trump's ties to the state and his performance in the primary, there arises no reason to think that his presence alone will change a 40 year trend.


Trump's primary performance with Cubans was dismal. He was blown out in Miami-Dade and his approval rating among Florida Hispanics was around 12% during the primary season. Romney won 39% of Florida Hispanics and I'd guess Trump gets around 25%.

As for ties to the state, sure he has ties to West Palm Beach, but that's not going to help anywhere outside the WPB/Ft. Lauderdale area. The rest of the state is too different and unconnected with South Florida for people to care what goes on over there. And any ties might be useless with the disaster that is Trump's campaign in the state.
272  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) on: June 07, 2016, 08:12:01 pm
This had to be the most on-time Trump has been the whole campaign.

Also, it's hilarious how obvious it is when Trump goes off script.
273  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why is Rubio Being Such a Primadonna About Running? on: June 07, 2016, 03:42:42 pm
No matter what TN Volunteer wants you to believe, Rubio is not the one republican hope for the seat. The only real benefits he can bring are immediate name recognition and easier out of state fundraising. his approval ratings aren't anything special, his connection to the state party and donors can be matched by several of the current candidates, and of course a run now leaves all sorts of GOP primary ammunition.

That is not to say he's particularly bad as some of the Democrats would have you believe; he's still charismatic and an incumbent senator. The best way to think of him is as a slightly better CLC. With Rubio or without Rubio the race is a tossup any one of the non-Beruff candidates will do well.

The strength of the FLGOP is not really in its candidates; Jeb Bush won here! While the FLDEMs are so incompetent they basically need to rely on a stellar candidate to win anything, the party fundraising and GOTV machine of the state party is what makes Florida a GOP state more than the quality of any of its candidates. That'll be true here too.
274  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Century of Blood, the IV ASOIAF game Sign-Up Topic and Rules thread on: June 07, 2016, 02:24:30 pm
I'm not saying you should or shouldn't, but it is kind of a difficult era for a game because of how seperate the kingdoms are. There's no good reason, for example, for the Starks to deal with anyone besides Harren and possibly the Arryns. Unless a Westeros wide threat develops, like Aegon or possibly New Valyria, the balance of powers would probably keep things at a sort of Cold War, with everyone acting to stop anyone who threatened to become too large and nobody would have much reason to interact with anyone beyond their neighbors.
275  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Public Policy Polling: Trump 41 Clinton 40 on: June 07, 2016, 02:16:11 pm
I swear to god the "muh bernie voters hurting hillary" is approaching unskew level stupidity.

Parties unify when primaries end; it's something reliable that can be counted on with examples in practically every election in the modern era. Trump, undoubtably one of the least popular nominees to run for president, has united the GOP even though just a few months prior 40% of the party was frightened of him. I have yet to see one compelling reason Hillary won't win 90% or so of Democrats that EVERY Democratic candidate can expect to win.
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