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August 26, 2016, 08:15:41 pm
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76  General Politics / Economics / Re: Know the Signs: Obama Derangement Syndrome on: June 09, 2016, 06:23:09 pm
The unemployment poll I could justify as a genuine misunderstanding about the extent of decline in the labor force participation rate. The stock market being lower? I've got nothing.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Susan Collins: Not Ruiling Out Voting for Hillary Clinton on: June 09, 2016, 05:08:15 pm
She has more to lose endorsing Trump than Hillary, but I think she'd be better off staying silent.

Voting for and endorsing someone are very different things. She might be saying she won't endorse anyone and will privately vote for Hillary.
78  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: June 09, 2016, 01:17:53 pm
Is the turn over?
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will these states vote in comparison to the national average? on: June 08, 2016, 03:30:11 pm
More D:
FL
WI
MI
VA
CO
NV
NH

More R:
OH
PA
NC
IA

Florida has not voted more D since Jimmy Carter.

[img width=760 height=570]http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/55918b77ecad04a3465a0a63/nbc-fires-donald-trump-after-he-calls-mexicans-rapists-and-drug-runners.jpg[/ig]

Trump has deep roots in Florida, and he performed well in the state during the primaries. There is no legitimate reason to think that he will fare worse than other Republicans in the state.

Hispanics.

We're talking Florida, not New Mexico, Arizona, or Nevada. In the latter states, Hispanics are Mexican-Americans who are (supposedly) heavily anti-Trump. In Florida, Hispanics are more diverse, and some have historically supported GOP candidates (e.g. Cubans). Factor in Trump's ties to the state and his performance in the primary, there arises no reason to think that his presence alone will change a 40 year trend.


Trump's primary performance with Cubans was dismal. He was blown out in Miami-Dade and his approval rating among Florida Hispanics was around 12% during the primary season. Romney won 39% of Florida Hispanics and I'd guess Trump gets around 25%.

As for ties to the state, sure he has ties to West Palm Beach, but that's not going to help anywhere outside the WPB/Ft. Lauderdale area. The rest of the state is too different and unconnected with South Florida for people to care what goes on over there. And any ties might be useless with the disaster that is Trump's campaign in the state.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) on: June 07, 2016, 08:12:01 pm
This had to be the most on-time Trump has been the whole campaign.

Also, it's hilarious how obvious it is when Trump goes off script.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Why is Rubio Being Such a Primadonna About Running? on: June 07, 2016, 03:42:42 pm
No matter what TN Volunteer wants you to believe, Rubio is not the one republican hope for the seat. The only real benefits he can bring are immediate name recognition and easier out of state fundraising. his approval ratings aren't anything special, his connection to the state party and donors can be matched by several of the current candidates, and of course a run now leaves all sorts of GOP primary ammunition.

That is not to say he's particularly bad as some of the Democrats would have you believe; he's still charismatic and an incumbent senator. The best way to think of him is as a slightly better CLC. With Rubio or without Rubio the race is a tossup any one of the non-Beruff candidates will do well.

The strength of the FLGOP is not really in its candidates; Jeb Bush won here! While the FLDEMs are so incompetent they basically need to rely on a stellar candidate to win anything, the party fundraising and GOTV machine of the state party is what makes Florida a GOP state more than the quality of any of its candidates. That'll be true here too.
82  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Century of Blood, the IV ASOIAF game Sign-Up Topic and Rules thread on: June 07, 2016, 02:24:30 pm
I'm not saying you should or shouldn't, but it is kind of a difficult era for a game because of how seperate the kingdoms are. There's no good reason, for example, for the Starks to deal with anyone besides Harren and possibly the Arryns. Unless a Westeros wide threat develops, like Aegon or possibly New Valyria, the balance of powers would probably keep things at a sort of Cold War, with everyone acting to stop anyone who threatened to become too large and nobody would have much reason to interact with anyone beyond their neighbors.
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Public Policy Polling: Trump 41 Clinton 40 on: June 07, 2016, 02:16:11 pm
I swear to god the "muh bernie voters hurting hillary" is approaching unskew level stupidity.

Parties unify when primaries end; it's something reliable that can be counted on with examples in practically every election in the modern era. Trump, undoubtably one of the least popular nominees to run for president, has united the GOP even though just a few months prior 40% of the party was frightened of him. I have yet to see one compelling reason Hillary won't win 90% or so of Democrats that EVERY Democratic candidate can expect to win.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Public Policy Polling: Trump 41 Clinton 40 on: June 07, 2016, 02:03:07 pm
Clinton will get some boost among Dems in the next weeks, once Bernie calls it quits in the next days (and probably endorses her).

Still, she'll remain a trainwreck with Indies, which will keep her in a tie in the important swing states ...

The problem is that bernie doesn't have many supporters in this state. He got shellacked by hillary here.

Bernie won around a third of the democrats in the state. Around half of these aren't yet saying they'll vote for Hillary, but probably will once Bernie is finally gone. Obama won 90% of Florida Democrats in 2012 and Hillary will win about the same number this year, give or take a percent or two.
85  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump orders surrogates to intensify criticism of Judge Curiel. on: June 06, 2016, 06:08:43 pm
Maybe he's aiming to get himself jailed on contempt charges?

You can only be jailed for contempt if there's a reasonable chance it'll produce compliance with the violated order. Would any sane person think there's a reasonable chance Trump would ever back down and give up on anything?
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Rubio being asked to jump back in; filing deadline is June 24th on: June 06, 2016, 02:59:14 pm
About two weeks ago, former Congressional and Senate candidate Dan Bongino from Maryland was in FL-22 talking about a possible campaign for Congress in FL-18. Now he suddenly has decided to run for Clawson's seat on the west coast. He's been in Florida for like less than a year. Carpetbagging POS.

...you know that two thirds of the state population would count as carpetbaggers, right? People move to Florida for better lives and opportunities; I don't see why that shouldn't apply to politicians when it applies to everyone else.
87  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles (Gameplay Thread) (Late 1927) on: June 06, 2016, 12:26:56 am
The Empire of Japan, Turn Two

-We express our sincerest condolences to Tsar Nicholas for the death of Prince Carol and express our hope for a swift resolution to any investigations surrounding the incident.

-While the situation in China is of supreme interest to the Empire, it is the decision of the Cabinet that we will not intervene further without an official request from the Imperial Prime Minister. While we regret being unable to do more, we will not sacrifice Japanese blood and treasure for the sake of an unwilling Chinese Government and an unfriendly people. (Cabinet minutes recording the dissent of the Imperial Japanese Army representative to the Cabinet's position are to be expunged. Any printed rumors that this dissent was joined by senior members of the Imperial Household will be suppressed as lèse-majesté.)

-The colonial commission is advised to be methodical and thorough in choosing new members and evaluating the conditions on the ground in the colonies. (The military police should quietly investigate the deaths of the commissioners. I want a list of dissidents and suspects related to the incident to be put to the cabinet as soon as possible. We don't need concrete evidence, just likely candidates.)

-The Ottoman trade delegation will be received and fêted with all due warmth and hospitality. The Commerce and Industry Ministry should coordinate with major corporations to highlight the industrial might of Japan and the benefits of cooperation between our empires.

-Since the fall of the Shogunate, Japan has been strong by being modern. We will not allow ourselves to fall behind! The time has come to decommission ships from the turn of the century which served in the Great War. This modernization program will begin with destroyers; the decommissioning process of 10 of these older ships should begin immediately.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016 on: June 05, 2016, 07:54:51 pm
According to this results will start coming in after 10:00 PM EST.
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What's left for Trump?.......... on: June 03, 2016, 03:11:30 pm
Basically, he'll pursue the groups that voted for Romney and, thereafter, try to gain 5-6% with Hispanics, 2-3% with Blacks, and 2-3% with Asians.

He's not looking to win minorities; with them, he just needs to go from "really really bad" to just "really bad."

How the heck is Trump going to gain any percentage on Romney w/ Hispanics? He's going to lose them by a HISTORIC margin.

At this point, I assume that anyone voting for Trump is incredibly uneducated or doesn't care about anyone but themselves.

I'm not sure about that. Romney's 27% was one of the lowest for a GOP in a while; usually, they get around 30-35%.

The notion that anti-illegal immigration talk will drive away Hispanics is wrong. Polls show that many Hispanic voters don't consider this issue as important as others (i.e. economy); and even when the GOP nominated pro-amnesty candidates (e.g. McCain, Bush 41, Reagan), they have still lost more than 60% of Hispanics. If illegal-immigration was everything, then McCain, Bush 41, and Reagan wouldn't have done so poorly.

You're focusing too much on individual policies. There's a reason that Asians have flipped much more towards the Democrats over the last few elections even though the GOP was arguably pursuing policies that were more pro-Asian than those pushed by Democrats like ending affirmative action, tax decreases for disproportionately wealthy Asians, and pro-family values legislation.

The idea is that, ignoring policies, the GOP has shown implicitly through rhetoric, campaign tactics, and behavior in office that what it ACTUALLY represents is the pro-white people party. That the reason the GOP pursues things like ending affirmative action is NOT because of a belief in meritocracy, but instead that we just want to maintain "white privilege." That being against illegal immigration isn't because of a belief in sovereignty or in the importance of maintaining the law, but in keeping "the browns" out. That Republicans are anti-muslim not because of terrorism but because of them being non-white.

Donald Trump has done more to confirm this view than ever. Even if you're of Hispanic descent and are anti-immigration, it's still very easy to see Trump as against you personally. His frequent attacks on Hispanic judges and politicians as well as continuous disparaging remarks towards Mexicans and other Hispanic people makes it really really REALLY hard to see how any Hispanic who wasn't inclined to vote for Romney will now switch over to someone who is one half-step away from coming out as anti-you and everyone like you.

This is why it's such a damn shame that this primary turned out the way it did. This was our chance to show we walked the walk of conservatism; that it wasn't a race thing but a genuine pursuit of policies we think will benefit everyone, including Hispanics. Instead the party chose someone who gives weight to the Democrat's most vicious screeds on our motives. Such a waste of an election.
90  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: June 02, 2016, 02:02:06 pm
Civil wars soon? The hype is real
91  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: June 01, 2016, 10:52:26 am
I'm waiting on a few PM responses myself before I do anything further
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Beruff internal says Beruff +1 in the GOP primary on: June 01, 2016, 10:07:33 am
The CLC thing isn't surprising to me, even if I don't believe the rest of the poll. Two years ago CLC was a literal nobody when Scott chose him as Lt. Gov. Since Scott doesn't really have an electoral organization for CLC to use and no real charisma to speak of I guess he was just hoping to fall into the office since there are no big names in the race. This is what happens when someone whose only advantage is slightly more name recognition and who has no campaign organization runs for office.
93  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: If you played Ingress, what type of team would you join for an anomaly? on: May 31, 2016, 10:29:49 pm
If I ever actually make it to an anomaly I'll be on a walking team
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump vs. Gary Johnson vs. David French on: May 31, 2016, 07:46:47 pm
moderate pub trumb win traditional pub new egland states like MA, VT, NH and NY while nice guys  FRENCH and JONSON split PLAINS STATES and CLINTON win populist whyte dems


HOUSE elects for trumo



Somehow the House electing Trump is even less believable than that map.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Rubio being asked to jump back in; filing deadline is June 24th on: May 31, 2016, 03:49:21 pm
I think Nelson will retire, so Graham might run for that instead.  But it would be better in the long run for the FL Dem party to elect a governor, because the center-left majority on the state supreme court that just gave them better districts to run in is at stake in 2018.

The so-called "center-left" SCoF was majority appointed by Republicans but the Governor doesn't matter very much on this issue. Once there is a vacancy on the Court a commission nominates several names and the Governor picks one of the names given to them.

The commission is made up of three members appointed by the Florida Bar, three by the Governor (who serve 4 year terms, so it could be the previous Governor), and three by the other six. A bunch of openings on the Court will happen in 2019 because of retirement laws but it'll probably still be Scott's people on the judicial nominating committee which selects the choices given to the Governor.
96  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Why didnt the 2000 election dispute get resolved by congress on: May 30, 2016, 06:54:02 pm
After the Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that that recount was unconstitutional, and 5-4 that there wasnt enough time to conduct a proper recount, shouldnt florida electors have been contested and decided by congress on how to resolve that dispute.  In 1876 there were states in dispute like florida was in 2000 and congress decided to resolve it. Shouldnt the same thing have happened in 2000(as the court didnt rule bush won, it just ruled florida didnt have enough time for a recount) and the house and senate should have decided who should have been president.

Because the electors were no longer in dispute. Electors are chosen by the states individually by each state's laws. The Florida law in question said that the Secretary of State would certify the electors for the candidate who received the most votes. She certified the Republican electors. The whole point of Bush v. Gore was determining whether her certification was proper. Once they said that it was the dispute was over. Florida had chosen its electors by Florida law. Even if Congress or the public thought that it was still contested it was no longer legally contestable.
97  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: May 2016 House of Representatives Elections on: May 29, 2016, 11:10:10 pm
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - NINE SEATS

[1] Haslam2020
[2] ClarkKent of Conneticut
[3] JohanusCalvinusLibertas
[4] Republitarian
[5] Classic Conservative
[6] Dkrolga
[7] Write-in: Seatown
[8] Rpryor03
[9] NeverAgain
[10] 1184AZ
[11] darthebearnc
[12] evergreen
[13] cxs018
98  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Posters in Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri on: May 27, 2016, 06:13:28 pm
I always played peacekeepers and preferred a diplomatic ending but I thought Godwinson was the most eloquent for her view. She was the absolute worst in-game though.
99  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles (Gameplay Thread) (Early 1927) on: May 26, 2016, 10:43:36 pm
The Empire of Japan


---

-The Empire of Japan congratulates General MacArthur on his inauguration. We hope friendly cooperation between our nations will continue to flourish under his regime.


-This was not the first earthquake Japan has endured and it will not be the last. Emergency medical care, search and rescue, and temporary shelter for the victims has probably already begun on a regional level, but should be supported by local divisions of the IJA. Details, funding  and implementation of longer-term actions, such as relocation and employment of victims and redevelopment of the area can be left to the Diet; that's what they're there for. As for outside help, we won't refuse any offered assistance from other nations or charitable organizations, but we will not ask for it. The sign of a modern nation is self-sufficiency; we don't need help to support the Japanese people.

-The Diet, the IJA, and the Emperor would all throw a fit if we supported the Chinese Communists. Outright support for the Kuomintang is also a poor choice after the ingratitude they showed their benefactors the moment they thought they no longer needed us. Non-interference is the best policy.

-In general, it is my belief that domestic policy should be left to the Diet. With progress made on trade agreements and the recent instability in several major industrial powers, the exports should be thriving relieving any serious domestic pressure that the Diet could not handle. The success of the model in Japan has been very encouraging; perhaps it would work in the colonies? Request that a committee of parliamentarians as well as colonial administrators (which probably includes the IJA) be established to investigate the possibility for colonial assemblies to handle domestic affairs.

-Every necessary preparation should be made for the arriving foreign dignitaries. Any reports or rumors of piracy or threats at sea should be investigated, the streets of Tokyo should be cleared of unsavory elements, and anyone suspected of planning to cause trouble or instability should be dealt with however best to guarantee they won't cause a problem.

100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie says 'Game on' to debate with Trump. on: May 26, 2016, 03:34:34 pm

Bernie is out of his league with Trumpdedump, but Bernie has stars in his eyes and is enjoying being in the spotlight now. I'd never watch that debate, however. Absolutely no interest.

Exactly how is he out of the league of a man who has an incredibly shallow grasp of policy, and can't really do anything other than utter his usual stump speech talking points, or resort to name-calling when he's backed into a corner?

Are you talking about Trump or Bernie? That could easily describe either.
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