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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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76  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2016 Presidential Runoff on: October 29, 2016, 09:41:51 pm
North Carolina Yankee/Rpryor03
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's worst election debacle on: October 27, 2016, 01:23:38 pm
The Muslim soldier thing didn't have a lasting impact, I'm not sure what that's being voted so highly. I'd put the judge scandal over that for it for its impact on voters.

I went with the debate and "other", but they amount to the same answer: Trump's whimsical and undisciplined campaign cost him any chance he had of winning. A Trump that preps more for all of the debates and manages to stay on message doesn't necessarily win the debates (or the election) but he easily does better than he did without any good preparation.  All of his other problems stem from not preparing for anything.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who won the Florida Senate debate tonight? on: October 27, 2016, 11:30:31 am
Maybe after Rubio wins reelection the red avatars will admit that nominating Fratrick was a bad idea

Honestly, Rubio would have beaten any Dem Nominee.

I don't have any polling on this but just based on who she appeals to and her name this race would be a tie at worst for Gwen Graham.
79  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What coalition will run Germany after 2007? on: October 27, 2016, 09:15:58 am
It'll be same in 2017 as it was in 2007. CDU/SDP.

You might want to correct that 2007 thing.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of this map on: October 27, 2016, 08:48:51 am
They have Texas as a tossup but Utah as leans R. That alone is enough to make it a horrible map.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who won the Florida Senate debate tonight? on: October 27, 2016, 08:45:32 am
I only got to see the last 30 minutes or so, mostly the foreign policy section and closings. I'm not sure if it was different in the first part, but from what I saw, Murphy's performance was an embarrassment. Doing everything you can to link Rubio to Trump probably IS the right idea, but Murphy's knee-jerk reaction of "but you support Trump" even to substantive answers made him look, somehow, like even more of an empty suit with no ideas than Marco Rubio.

I guess this just confirmed for me that Murphy is trying hard to be the most generic D of all generic Ds and to never say anything about himself or what he believes in, but that's just not enough to get it done in Florida. I'll go into the voting booth securely knowing that (somehow) Marco Rubio is the candidate of substance(Huh). Murphy and the Florida Dems are blowing a very winnable race with a terrible campaign and the DSCC decision is looking better and better.
82  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Will the United States go to war over the next 4 years? on: October 26, 2016, 04:39:31 pm
Ignoring the war in Afghanistan and whatever you would classify our involvement with ISIS and Syria is, do you think the next President will preside over another war? The "Hillary will start a nuclear war with Russia" line is a hot topic with the alt-right at the moment, but even if you don't believe that we will end up at war with Russia there are always lots of hot spots that could flare up and require American action.

Defining a war is always pretty difficult in the modern era, but for the purpose of this question lets call it concerted and sustained military action against a state actor. So Libya would count, ISIS bombing would not. Attacking Iran would count, attacking the Houthis would not.
83  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which user do you PM most often? on: October 25, 2016, 09:14:15 pm
Lumine and its not close.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Florida - Survey USA - HRC +3 (4 way) on: October 25, 2016, 06:58:41 pm
Any candidate on either side in Florida who does not eat babies or is not Katherine Harris is getting a minimum of 44/45%.
85  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you vote on Oregon's Ballot Measures on: October 25, 2016, 04:17:16 pm
Measure 94 - Yes
Measure 95 - Yes
Measure 96- No
Measure 97- No
Measure 98- Yes
Measure 99- No
Measure 100- No
86  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Census Bureau of Atlasia on: October 24, 2016, 02:34:15 pm
Thinking on this even more, I'm not sure if Peebs is the one who would make this call...maybe it'd be the Rpryor? The Court?
87  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Census Bureau of Atlasia on: October 24, 2016, 02:31:17 pm
Following on from that question. The people who couldn't vote in the election due to not being registered for seven days, can they vote in the run-off?

It's the same question. If its a new election then the answer would have to be yes. If it is merely a continuation it would have to be no. The constitution's wording is "from the commencement of the election"; the question is if that was the 21st or will be the 28th.
88  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Census Bureau of Atlasia on: October 24, 2016, 02:15:02 pm
The following voters have been de-registered for missing three federal elections:
Angrie
BigEdLB
Bmotley
Cassius
Dallasfan65
drewmike87
Reaganfan
TheHawk
As a consequence of Bmotley being de-registered, the Democratic-Republican Party is no longer recognized, as it only has two members.

Can they be deregistered yet? With a runoff incoming I think the election is technically still ongoing. Or would that count as a totally different election, so that missing both round one and round two would be two strikes?

EDIT: The law actually does address one part, saying that runoffs wouldn't count as a strike but would count as activity. Nothing on whether it is still part of the past election or counts as a second one though.
89  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: October 24, 2016, 12:12:57 pm
So is the turn still going or is possibly going to be reopened or what? I really don't like this limbo; frankly, the constant post-deadline dead periods with no word about what's going on make it hard to stay excited about this game.
90  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2016 Federal Election on: October 23, 2016, 07:43:06 pm
PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT OF ATLASIA

[1] North Carolina Yankee/Rpryor03
Federalist Party/United Alternative

[2] Blair2015/Kingpoleon
Labor Party/United Alternative

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - NINE SEATS

[1] Enduro of Pennsylvania
[2] SecureAmerica/Heisenberg of New Mexico
[3] Republitarian/Goldwater of California
[4] tedbessell of California
[5] Write-in: Seatown
[6] NeverAgain of Virginia
[7] Siren of Puerto Rico
[8] Peebs of North Carolina
[9] EarlAW/Hatman of Ontario
91  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: College Football 2016 on: October 23, 2016, 02:11:43 pm
While we're talking about interesting scenarios, what does the committee do if the champions look like this?

ACC: undefeated Clemson
Pac-12: Undefeated Washington
B1G: 1-loss tOSU
Big XII: Undefeated WVU
SEC: Undefeated Alabama

All of these teams are good enough at their best to not lose any more games. I'm sure there would be serious pressure on the committee to include the B1G champion, especially when its an Ohio State that has looked really good, but do y'all think they would really slight an undefeated P5 champion to do so?
92  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Fremont Special Gubernatorial Election on: October 22, 2016, 06:36:46 pm
1. Write-in: Seatown
2. GAWorth
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Combined third party vote in 2016? on: October 22, 2016, 04:35:39 pm
5-7, but a lot closer to 7.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-CoC: Rubio holds large lead ver Murphy on: October 22, 2016, 10:49:57 am
Seems unlikely that Obama would go to Florida to campaign for Murphy if he's so far behind.

Maybe, but it also seems unlikely that the DSCC would have pulled out of the race if their numbers said it was winnable.

But seriously, Rubio is not winning by this kind of margin. The "anyone who isn't Katherine Harris and doesn't eat babies will get 45% in Florida" rule still stands, Rubio isn't a good enough politician to take natural Democratic votes and Murphy isn't bad enough to lose those votes.

This must also be due to Marco Rubio's impressive debate performance on October 17 when he slammed Murphy for his family's money transfers from partnership with Donald Trump, accused him of not only flip-flopping but also metamorphosing and reminded him that he gropped a woman at the tits on a picture posted on Facebook.

I doubt it; the debate wasn't very publicized and not very watched. The reporting of it the next day in most of the big Florida papers didn't talk about a huge Rubio win; most of them seemed to say either both had won or that it was very close.
95  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: College Football 2016 on: October 22, 2016, 01:03:18 am
If A&M beats Bama tomorrow, I like our chances to get two teams in the College Football Playoff.  The SEC West, in my opinion, has six of the top 15-20 teams in the country.  It's not their fault that some of them will have five losses, because someone has to lose their games against each other!  It will be proven, yet again, when the SEC dominates in bowl season, just like last year, when people didn't give us enough respect.  Mississippi St. might not go to a bowl game, even though they are a good enough team to take BYU to overtime in Provo, because their early-season post-Dak growing pains will be too much to overcome in the SEC West.

The other thing that is incredible about this season is the number of brand names in serious jeopardy of not going bowling:

Michigan St.
Notre Dame
Oregon
Mississippi St. (reached #1 just two years ago)
UCLA
Texas

No way the SEC gets two teams from the West in. The committee has made it clear that it values conference champions far above non-champions. No way they put, say, a 1 loss Bama or A&M that doesn't even win its own division over a one loss (or even some 2 loss teams like a 2 loss Wisconsin that won a rematch in the B1G championship) ACC/Big XII/Big 10/Pac-12 champion. Plus, the SEC West just flat out isn't that great this year. It's possibly still the best division in CFB, but the non-conference results (losses by LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State, and wins that were either unimpressive or over unimpressive teams by Arky, Bama, and A&M) definitely make that a debatable proposition.

If they DO let in a non-conference champion, I think that 1 loss Louisville and the loser of the Michigan/tOSU game will have just as good a claim (or better) as the 2nd in the West.

Let me give you a hypothetical from last year:

Arkansas fails to convert on the 4th & 25 miracle flip in Oxford.  Ole Miss wins the West with 2 losses.  Alabama was already inside the top 4.  Do you really think they would have dropped Alabama out?  My understanding is that conference championships are essentially used as tiebreakers, and I think that, sooner or later, a conference will get two of the four (which will probably lead to expansion, just like when Alabama and LSU had their 2011 rematch).  Assuming Ole Miss beat a reeling Florida team in the SEC Championship Game, what do you think would have happened?

Easy, we get a post-championship ranking of

1.Clemson (13-0)
2. Michigan State (12-1)
3. Ole Miss(11-2)
4. Oklahoma (11-1)
-------
5. Alabama (11-1)
6. Iowa (12-1)
7. Stanford (10-2)

SEC/ACC/B1G winners get in easy. Pac-12 winner has 2 losses, is out. So it's down to two 11-1 teams, regular ol' Bama and Big XII winner Oklahoma. The committee flat out isn't putting a 1 loss team which couldn't even win its division over another team with the same record but who was a conference champion. Plus, Oklahoma has a few other things to boost it up like its only loss being a close one in a major rivalry against another blueblood and being widely seen as much improved over the year; remember, Oklahoma went in to the playoffs favored against Clemson and seen by Vegas as the best shot at beating Bama.

Bama fans probably hiss and holler and I'm sure Finebaum's show would be full of BILE but you have to remember that the playoff was created because the outrage over the Bama-LSU championship was so bad that the government was threatening the NCAA. The committee would be faced with two teams with strong arguments with the very likely threat of backlash if they ignored the championship tiebreaker.

The only scenario where I can see 2 from a single conference getting in is if that 4 vs 5 is a "weak" 10-3 or 11-2 champion vs a clearly top 2 11-1. I doubt it'll happen any time soon.
96  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles (Gameplay Thread) (Early 1929) on: October 22, 2016, 12:42:08 am
It is not imperialism to defend against war crimes. I do not care for how internationally unpopular a move may be. I only care for what is right. A leader is not someone who takes a vote from the other groups he's not in charge of and then decides what to do. A leader leads with justice, doing what they know to be right. No battles were threatened. We merely promised to bring an end to war crimes. It is deplorable that all nations cannot accept that the assumed rules against war crimes must be enforced. We, if in the other nations' positions, would either withdraw your condemnations at once, or understand the natural outrage of the United Kingdom at your condemnation of opposition to war crimes.

If violence had been threatened, it would have been another matter. Forcing surrender merely implies in this case gaining the backing of the French government in arresting the French volunteers. If the United Kingdom were in charge of peace conferences, Greece would be expelled if they refused to expel the French volunteers which are criminally and internationally illegally there.

- PM Winston Churchill
Except they didn't commit war crimes.

In fact, it is quite the opposite. Should the United Kingdom enter the Kingdom of Greece to remove the volunteers, under accepted laws of war (OOC: I'm just going to assume the Hague Convention still happened) they themselves would be committing war crimes:

France has no obligation to stop volunteers from fighting for Greece:

Quote from: Treaty V of the Hague Convention of 1907
Article 6: The responsibility of a neutral Power is not engaged by the fact of persons crossing the frontier separately to offer their services to one of the belligerents.'

Should Britain use its conflict with France to enter Greek territory, it would be violating international law unless it declared first declared war on Greece

Quote from: Treaty V of the Hague Convention of 1907
Article 1. The territory of neutral Powers is inviolable.

Article 10. The fact of a neutral Power resisting, even by force, attempts to violate its neutrality cannot be regarded as a hostile act.
97  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: College Football 2016 on: October 22, 2016, 12:10:43 am
If A&M beats Bama tomorrow, I like our chances to get two teams in the College Football Playoff.  The SEC West, in my opinion, has six of the top 15-20 teams in the country.  It's not their fault that some of them will have five losses, because someone has to lose their games against each other!  It will be proven, yet again, when the SEC dominates in bowl season, just like last year, when people didn't give us enough respect.  Mississippi St. might not go to a bowl game, even though they are a good enough team to take BYU to overtime in Provo, because their early-season post-Dak growing pains will be too much to overcome in the SEC West.

The other thing that is incredible about this season is the number of brand names in serious jeopardy of not going bowling:

Michigan St.
Notre Dame
Oregon
Mississippi St. (reached #1 just two years ago)
UCLA
Texas

No way the SEC gets two teams from the West in. The committee has made it clear that it values conference champions far above non-champions. No way they put, say, a 1 loss Bama or A&M that doesn't even win its own division over a one loss (or even some 2 loss teams like a 2 loss Wisconsin that won a rematch in the B1G championship) ACC/Big XII/Big 10/Pac-12 champion. Plus, the SEC West just flat out isn't that great this year. It's possibly still the best division in CFB, but the non-conference results (losses by LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State, and wins that were either unimpressive or over unimpressive teams by Arky, Bama, and A&M) definitely make that a debatable proposition.

If they DO let in a non-conference champion, I think that 1 loss Louisville and the loser of the Michigan/tOSU game will have just as good a claim (or better) as the 2nd in the West.
98  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles (Gameplay Thread) (Early 1929) on: October 21, 2016, 02:08:38 pm
The Empire of Japan condemns in the strongest possible terms the outrageous imperialist rhetoric of the United Kingdom. To threaten a military force against the Kingdom of Greece, which has done nothing to provoke their anger, merely because French citizens have chosen for whatever reason to fight for the Greek government is a callous and dangerous breach of Greek sovereignty. The transgression is made all the worse by the threat it causes to the ongoing peace negotiations to resolve the Balkan conflict.  We condemn this dangerous lack of respect for the brotherhood of nations in Greece as we do for the people of Asia still held in European bondage.

We call on all free and independent nations to condemn the United Kingdom for their threats against peace and national sovereignty and ask that the Prime Minister immediately retract and apologize for his demand. If he should refuse to do so, we ask the British Parliament and Crown clarify that the Prime Minister's demands do not represent the views of the United Kingdom.
99  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles (Gameplay Thread) (Early 1929) on: October 19, 2016, 06:02:07 pm
We see the need to emphasize that our proposal represents only Japan's suggestion as a neutral party as to how we would reach a fair and equitable solution in this conflict. If some other proposal would be more likely to create a just and lasting peace, we ask that our proposal not stand in the way of that opportunity.

The Empire of Japan continues its pledge to offer any support necessary in the pursuit of peace.
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: On election night, what call will end any doubt of the result? on: October 19, 2016, 05:16:27 pm
It won't be Florida. Everyone, including the pundits, knows that the Panhandle will be great for Trump. They won't be willing to call anything until some Pensacola numbers start coming in. Plus, Florida tends to be slow with counting and even if Hillary does win it, it's not going to be a large enough win to call it that early.

I went with PA/VA. Once PA goes the election is over and with recent PA polls it should be callable FAST, possibly before Florida is even done voting.
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