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76  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: After The False Spring, the III ASOIAF Game (Sign Up - Rules Thread) on: March 17, 2016, 06:07:19 pm
Right. Unless someone immediately hops over to the Tyrells, I'm out too. I don't care to go this alone or under an NPC and there are no other appealing factions to join.
77  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Balance of Power II: American Civil War (1861 - ) on: March 17, 2016, 12:50:00 am
Crisis in the Border States 1:
Turmoil in Maryland


TO: The Confederate States of America

Since President Lincoln's order for troops to fight the rebellion, Maryland has been wracked with turmoil. Baltimore and Maryland's southeastern counties are hotbeds of Confederate sympathizers. Now word reaches you that riots in Baltimore over Union soldiers crossing through the city have rendered it a no-go area for the Federals.

The Governor, Thomas Hicks, is a slaveholding southern-sympathizer but is strongly pro-Union. He has refused to send Maryland soldiers to Washington but has prevented any move towards secession. Rumor says that he will soon convene the strongly pro-southern legislature in the fervently pro-Union western counties to scotch any secession attempts once and for all. It also seems that General Winfield Scott is preparing to suppress Baltimore.

Your generals have informed you of the following:

  • Because of your current naval situation, the only viable pathway for your armies to reach Baltimore and the pro-Confederate eastern counties is overland through Washington DC, the rapidly arming Federal capital.

  • Any attempt to cross the Potomac west of Washington is advised against because of the difficulties of river crossing by your still green soldiers and possible Union interception. If you succeeded, however, your army would be present in unfriendly territory and would need direction.

  • It is possibly that some saboteurs could reach the pro-Confederate counties. However, they would need a concrete goal and chances of their success is unknown.

How will you respond, Mr. President?

Note: Part two, Crisis in Kentucky coming tomorrow
78  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Balance of Power II: 1861 (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: March 15, 2016, 11:18:47 pm
Ok, I'm going to break my promise and say tomorrow morning/afternoon. All I need to do is find some proper wording but I'm too tired to continue right now.
79  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Balance of Power II: 1861 (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: March 15, 2016, 06:57:36 pm
They'll be up tonight, I promise!

Yay! I can't wait to see how my invasion on Florida is goind XD

What?

It's time to destroy the slave power and free the Black people. Prussian troops will liberate Florida from the meance!

Florida, Indochina, Denmark...now you just need a war in Africa, South America, and Australia to get the whole set!
80  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Balance of Power II: 1861 (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: March 15, 2016, 05:15:41 pm
They'll be up tonight, I promise!
81  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Winter is Coming (GoT is back) on: March 15, 2016, 02:57:39 pm
There are people who don't?
82  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Balance of Power II: 1861 (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: March 15, 2016, 01:29:01 pm
We do
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The situation in Libya - Hillary's position on: March 11, 2016, 12:56:39 pm
I still think it was the right move. I think there is good enough evidence from his statements and past behavior to indicate that Qaddafi wanted an indiscriminately slaughter in Benghazi. A failure to support the rebels after all our positive statements on their behalf would have been the ultimate sign of weakness from the Obama administration.

And what happens to Libya if we don't intervene? It's not like Qaddafi just wins and Libya settles down. All the same things that are happening in Syria might be happening in Libya as well; rebels, refugees and weak state control. You can add to that further discontent at the west for their "betrayal".

What this shows, to me, is that there is pain to anything we do. Boots on the ground can lead to Iraq, military support with no boots on the ground can lead to Libya, aid but no military support to Syria, and just ignoring the situation to something like Darfur or Rwanda. With what we knew at the time (and even now) I'd still say that it was the best possible move at the time..
84  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: New Speaker election on: March 10, 2016, 01:10:17 am
[X] Senator Kent
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Rubio gubernatorial prospects megathread on: March 09, 2016, 10:20:22 pm
Those knowledgeable about FL politics, let's discuss Rubio's 2018 prospects. First, do you believe he will run for governor? Second, would anyone notable run against him the primary, and if so, who? Third, how would the primary opponent(s) to Rubio be viewed by the party - would they receive heavy backing from important party members, would they be ignored, or would they be seen as showing great disrespect to the former senator and have millions of dollars spent against them - and what would Rubio's chances of primary victory be? And finally, does the FDP have anyone who could beat Rubio in the general in a neutral or Lean R year?

RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE
RUBIO ISN'T GOING TO RUN, THERE IS NO ROOM FOR HIM IN THE RACE

I think this is going to be, what, the eighth thread where I've responded to this? Here is the full answer for the last time:

Rubio's initial support came from not being Charlie Crist at just the right moment, not any personal charisma or power base. He is not part of the "Florida Establishment" and won't get their money, organization or support. His entering the race would scare nobody out of it. Adam Putnam and (possibly) Jeff Atwater have been preparing for this race for years; practically all important donors, grassroots organizations, and party leaders have already lined up behind a candidate. Rubio, who has no firm support base, would seriously struggle to maintain a campaign. If he made it to a general election he'd be pretty much equivalent to a Generic R; beatable in the right years but slightly favored overall.

Now stop asking this question.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FL/OH-Quinnipiac: FL: Clinton 62% Sanders 32%; OH: Clinton 52% Sanders 43% on: March 09, 2016, 11:13:59 am
Every analysis I read says that Sanders managed to upset Clinton in Michigan because he poured most of his resources there. He could do the same with Ohio but that risks him getting steamrolled in the other 3/15 states.

Sanders could easily spend 40 Mio. $ in the Super 2.0 Tuesday states.

Because afterwards there are only small states for a while and his fundraising would pick up significantly anyway if he does well.

It's not just money. Sanders had camped the entire week in Michigan and held rallies at every university campus in the state. Hard to do the same when 5 big states vote in just one week.

To be fair, Sanders was still doing events in Kansas and Nebraska up until last Friday. He only had 3 days to really blitz Michigan.

He's been in Florida the last two days (Miami yesterday, Kissimmee and Tampa today) as there will be a debate tonight back in Miami. I have to imagine today will be his last day in Florida. I have to imagine his time is going to be spread out pretty evenly between Illinois, Missouri (would love to see a poll from here), and Ohio over the next 5 days. Also I hope he doesn't completely give up on keeping the delegate margin closer in North Carolina. A rally in Asheville and the Research Triangle Area (or just heavily media spending in those areas) could help him not get blown out and maybe he could win some CDs.

I can't speak for the rest of the week, but Sanders will be doing a rally at University of Florida tomorrow.
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is ready to vote for Gov. Gary Johnson now after what happened last night? on: March 09, 2016, 10:45:13 am
Why would I vote for Johnson? Cruz won't be the GOP nominee, so the party's safe!

Because Trump would easily be worse for the economy than Hillary but voting for democrats isn't palatable?

Also, how can you think the party is safe? The last thing the GOP needs is to be further solidified as the party for whites and against everyone else.

I'm sure putting up some preppy schoolkid who won't break 30% in a Republican primary in his own state will do wonders for GOP electability!

Its time to stop thinking of just this election cycle; Trump and Cruz won't beat Hillary anyway. I'm worried about damage on future elections. GOP midterm advantage won't last forever and the Presidential map doesn't start looking any easier four or eight years down the line if we don't start attracting more Hispanic voters.

I will vote for other republicans on the ballot, I just can't vote for this guy. If he acts any more out of line I am considering a switch after the primary.

Oh sure; I'm doing the same (I just voted for Rubio here). I was under the impression that's what we were talking about.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is ready to vote for Gov. Gary Johnson now after what happened last night? on: March 09, 2016, 10:38:56 am
Why would I vote for Johnson? Cruz won't be the GOP nominee, so the party's safe!

Because Trump would easily be worse for the economy than Hillary but voting for democrats isn't palatable?

Also, how can you think the party is safe? The last thing the GOP needs is to be further solidified as the party for whites and against everyone else.

I'm sure putting up some preppy schoolkid who won't break 30% in a Republican primary in his own state will do wonders for GOP electability!

Its time to stop thinking of just this election cycle; Trump and Cruz won't beat Hillary anyway. I'm worried about damage on future elections. GOP midterm advantage won't last forever and the Presidential map doesn't start looking any easier four or eight years down the line if we don't start attracting more Hispanic voters.
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who is ready to vote for Gov. Gary Johnson now after what happened last night? on: March 09, 2016, 10:20:50 am
Why would I vote for Johnson? Cruz won't be the GOP nominee, so the party's safe!

Because Trump would easily be worse for the economy than Hillary but voting for democrats isn't palatable?

Also, how can you think the party is safe? The last thing the GOP needs is to be further solidified as the party for whites and against everyone else.
90  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: College football map on: March 08, 2016, 09:37:22 pm
Freedom map. I am generally pleased with the results of this map and the people I live around.

 
I love it! At first, I thought they excluded North Dakota State, but on second glance, it looks like that light shade may be them, which is impressive - nearly as impressive as Fresno.

Unfortunately they did leave out NDSU. This map is only Div. I FBS schools. I have no doubt that in reality NDSU dominates North Dakota. Funny enough, Texas is the top FBS team in that eastern half of the state.

That's what I thought, but who the heck is the brown in North Dakota?

If you go to the NYT site you can actually see the top three by zipcode. That blob in ND is actually Texas.

The only real surprise for me is North Carolina being such an ironclad Tar Heel state. Wake Forest and Duke aren't even close to first place in their home zipcodes! The Northeast getting infected with Florida fandom by snowbirds is pretty funny.
91  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Conservatives: What Kind of Conservative Are You? on: March 08, 2016, 12:24:23 am
Free Market first and foremost. I try to stick close-ish to the Church's positions so I'm going with Christian Democrat as well. I also support an interventionist foreign policy which I assume makes me a "neocon" as well.
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What Would a Trump General Election Victory Look Like? on: March 07, 2016, 07:40:05 pm
Romney + FL and Ohio is 253

Why do people say he can't beat Clinton in FL? I think there is a great chance Trump wins FL and Ohio against Clinton. He is up in the latest head to head polls in both states.

Then the hard part, he then needs to win one of the following:
PA, VA + NH, VA + IA, VA + CO, NH + IA + WI, CO + IA + WI

Trump had +11 in a November poll in CO. He is ahead in the last 3 latest polls in FL and the latest one in OH.

ANYBODY can get to 46 or 47 in a Florida poll. It's getting beyond that which has caused the FL Democrats so many problems in statewide elections and the Republicans problems in national ones. Again, the issue is that Trump just doesn't fit as well as Hillary does with the state. Romney did as well as anyone ever has among Panhandle whites so there's that much to gain there. Trump might keep up the same numbers or do slightly better with I-4 corridor whites. But there's no chance he keeps up regular Republican numbers among Cubans and other Hispanics. I also doubt he improves much with South Florida whites as well. Hillary also has a bit more appeal among older people and her appeal there shouldn't be immediately be counted out.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What Would a Trump General Election Victory Look Like? on: March 07, 2016, 06:44:50 pm
For Trump GE win, we need to think weirder, like sweeping the Midwest outside of IL while losing the rest of the Bush '04 ---> Obama '12 states.



I think this map is closest to it. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania seem like easier targets than Virginia and Florida. For Florida, it's hard to improve on Romney's dominant performance in the Panhandle and I just don't see where Trump makes up the votes he'll lose in Miami and Orlando. The western counties in Virginia seem equally maxed out for Republicans and I doubt he'll gain many new Republican voters in the Beltway.
94  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Swearing in of New Officeholders on: March 07, 2016, 06:30:06 pm
    I, Dereich, do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the office of Regional Senator for the Midwest and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia.
95  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: After The False Spring, the III ASOIAF Game (Sign Up - Rules Thread) on: March 06, 2016, 09:40:15 pm
Not for a day or two I hope! I'm just back from vacation and have a mess of PMs and moves to go through.
96  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Will Justice Thomas end up the longest serving SC Justice of all time? on: March 05, 2016, 08:40:54 pm
I think he resigns months into a Republican administration. I don't think he wants to stay any more than he has to without Scalia.

Why would Scalia's presence be a dealbreaker? Thomas has a very different judicial philosophy and temperament. From what I've heard they weren't especially close; while they're all apparently friends it was always Scalia and GINSBERG which was the really close relationship
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who would win the Florida nominations for governor in 2018? on: March 05, 2016, 01:27:14 pm
Regalado/Bondi is the best ticket for the Republicans.

Otherwise, Crist v. Putnam is most likely.

Yeah, being a REPUBLICAN mayor in Miami is pretty good, but I don't think he is just that great for the Governorship, Putnam would be better. Bondi? No way.

Regalado is the best Republican - he's the executive of Florida's financial capital and he's fairly moderate. He'd be one of the few Governors with prior executive experience.

I'd love to see him run for higher office someday, but his ambition is lacking.

Miami politicians don't tend to run for statewide office; I think Jeb was the last one to do so successfully. Miami is just such a different creature from the rest of the state that it's hard for their politicians to build up a statewide profile.


As I've said a dozen times now, there is no space for Rubio to run and his personal appeal is unlikely to overcome a lack of party support. Putnam and Graham is the most likely race and would be a pretty good clash of heavyweights.
98  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Trump vs Clinton: rightwing forumites census on: March 03, 2016, 04:26:24 pm
Johnson or Clinton, probably Johnson right now. I wouldn't vote for Trump to be dogcatcher, let alone President.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-PPP: Murphy up on all Republicans, Grayson up on all but Jolly on: March 01, 2016, 05:40:25 pm
Grayson would probably defeat DeSantis and might stand a small chance against Lopez-Cantera. Never underestimate the incompetence of the FL Republican party. They know how to throw away winnable races.
Arent FL dems worse though?

Of course they are; the FL GOP is excellently run. The last straight up "thrown away winnable race" was probably when Katherine Harris was nominated for Senate in 2006. I don't know where TN Volunteer is coming from here.
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans only: Will you vote for Trump if he's the nominee? on: February 25, 2016, 03:45:51 pm
No, because he's really NOT better than Hillary where it matters.
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