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76  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Public Discussion on the Supreme Court Cases (Avoid Cluttering Case Threads) on: November 19, 2016, 08:39:05 pm
Once Gass has been confirmed, I hope this will come to an end quickly.

It would be highly improper for a justice to vote on a case when they missed oral arguments.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Trump just implode already? on: November 19, 2016, 05:53:02 pm
Look at what you unleashed on the world Darthebearnc. Why did you do this?
78  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Public Discussion on the Supreme Court Cases (Avoid Cluttering Case Threads) on: November 19, 2016, 01:53:13 am
Right, I've given up on writing anything as deep as I wanted and literally just am throwing stuff unedited from IRC and PMs while ignoring some things but here are my thoughts on BaconKing v. SoFE and what I'd consider if I was still a Justice.

I really don't like BK's "none of the other SoFEs have done it!" argument. The person's judgment on how to enforce the law (along with their activity level) is THE THING that differentiates candidates for the position; different people SHOULD handle it differently as long as there isn't a SCOA bright line on the matter.

BK's "freedom of speech" argument should fail as well. Regulation of both speech and voting are permitted and expected by the constitution; just as yelling fire in a crowd is ban-able, so too should attempts to use peer pressure in the voting booth. This pits two rights against each other, speech and the right to vote as you please without intimidation. The Court here should defer to the Legislature's power to create appropriate regulations regarding these boundaries. As the regulation serves a substantial government interest and is narrowly tailored to not suppress speech rights any more than necessary to protect other rights there's no problem on that front.The Court earlier collectively decided that the statue thing was unimportant; that can be ignored. The Due Process claim doesn't work for me either; the SoFE explained his justification for the ban and the aggrieved voters are currently having their day in Court.

For me, the sole issue that has merit in BK's case is that of the right to vote and of the definition of campaigning. As I said above, the right to ban campaigning should be constitutional and a lack of prior enforcement shouldn't necessarily preclude its use here.

When looking at just that issue my question is "Was the SoFE justified in calling the activity of the voters campaigning?" Rpryor actually got the question exactly right: "could those votes reasonably be construed as a direct attempt to influence how future voters cast their ballot."

In some circumstances, I'd think that was a jury question but since this has already gone on for a million years I'll just go ahead and assume the Court won't do that. I'll admit; I'm really really torn on this case. "F**k Kingpoleon," is not, to me, prima facie enough to ban a vote. But I also think Rpryor as SoFE should be the one determining these things, not the Court. If I was still on the Court, I guess my final vote would be the allow the votes in, only because I think voting is the crux of this game and this ONE TIME while anti-campaigning laws were not well understood the voter's rights could outweigh the SoFE's power but I can't say I'm sure enough that any decision the Court makes will be wrong.
79  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why are liberals upset about Jeff Sessions? on: November 18, 2016, 06:49:45 pm
Maro Lago used to discriminate, and Trump took it over and ended the discrimination.  The ACLU is absolutely Communist inspired and at least partially un-American.  While civil rights are important, the NAACP has some radical elements as well.

This tells me that you're either talking out your ass or that you don't view the liberties protected in the constitution as being American. The ACLU has done more to ensure the Constitution is more than meaningless words on paper than any other organization outside maybe the Jehovah's Witnesses.
80  General Discussion / History / Re: US presidential electons where the party in power should've won/lost, but didn't on: November 17, 2016, 08:44:34 pm
What are your criteria here for "should have won/lost"? Poll numbers? The status of the economy? It's hard to decide who should have won or lost something when we're all using different standards of what should make someone win.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Tim Ryan to challenge Nancy Pelosi for House Minority Leader on: November 17, 2016, 06:46:15 pm
Reposting:

This is very dumb. I worked with an appropriations congressman in DC for two years. Tim Ryan left a very bad impression; he wasn't very good in approps and I doubt he'd be a great Minority Leader. The job of the minority leader is to keep the caucus united, make sure the right members are on the right committees, be the chief negotiator for her caucus with the other side and the White House, and to work with committee leaders to set the party's agenda in the House. It is not to win elections; that is the DNC's job. Nobody was asking if Paul Ryan was going to personally manage to preserve the majority.

Like her or not, Pelosi has been very VERY good at being the House Democratic leader. A change just for the sake of change would be pointless and would probably weaken the Democrat's position in the House even more.
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is the appeal of Cory Booker? on: November 17, 2016, 02:49:17 pm
If Trump is to be defeated in 2020, it will have to be (A) because he doesn't know what he's doing and hasn't gotten a grip on things, and (B) the Democrats have nominated a candidate who's ready to be a REAL President from Day One.  To beat Trump, "The Joke's Over!" has to be the theme of the 2020 campaign, and that assumes that events will have set Trump up for such a scenario. 

In that scenario, will Cory Booker really have enough experience to make it to the Presidency?  He's a first term Senator who was mayor of a heavily black city that was not attractive to business, and whose urban problems are far from insignificant.  I would suggest that in such a scenario, folks wouldn't be turned off to a candidate with DECADES of experience.  I would think there are limits to the "outsider" thing.

I don't think that would be much of a problem; a several term mayor followed by 7 years in the Senate is about as much time or maybe even a little more than any governors would have served. While I agree that depending on the electorate's mood someone with a LOT of experience could be called for, if you don't assume that that in advance I don't think the experience argument would work very well.
83  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Supreme Court could eliminate Gerrymandering on: November 17, 2016, 09:47:20 am
Well, this isn't happening anytime soon. Trump isn't going to appoint an anti-gerrymandering nominee to the SCOTUS.

I'm not really sure what you mean by this...is being pro-gerrymandering somehow part of the "conservative package" now? The real question with gerrymandering is one of justiciablity; does the Court have the authority to determine the practice's legality? There are major divides among "conservative judges" as to what the scope of the Court's power should be. The person who wrote the most recent pro-gerrymandering opinion and the biggest legislative supremacist on the Court was Scalia. There's every chance that a justice more inclined to support the Court's power to end gerrymandering gets appointed.

Plus, there's no reason to trust the Courts on the issue anyway. Congress has the undeniable power to end gerrymandering; that's where its opponents should look.
84  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Brexit and Trump on: November 17, 2016, 09:30:07 am
Remain/Clinton (R)

I'm not really enthusiastic about the EU but leaving the single market would be bad for the UK and the only possible way to remain in the single market while leaving the EU would be the Norway option in which you have to accept all EU regulations and freedom of movement without having anything to say about those regulations. And we need the UK to stand up against an EU army.

That response was going so well until it wildly derailed in the last sentence. My answer is the same minus the strikeout.
85  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: John Bolton being vetted for Trump admin on: November 17, 2016, 09:25:26 am
I don't know why anyone is surprised; Trump was never a Paulite "lets just militarily withdraw from the world" sort of isolationist. John Bolton is EXACTLY the candidate I'd expect a President who said things like "lets go in and take all the oil", "we need to force our allies to give NATO more money", and "let's take out family members of ISIS people" to choose. Trump's disagreement with the foreign policy establishment was never that we used American power too much in the world or that we needed to respect foreign sovereignty. Trump's problem was that America didn't get enough treasure out of our conquests and that we worked too much within the international order to do them. Bolton is a solution for that.
86  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles (Gameplay Thread) (Late 1929) on: November 15, 2016, 10:56:40 pm
The Empire of Japan is willing to sign this NEW and COMPLETELY SECRET agreement with the Chinese Government. What a glorious day for Asia and the Chinese people. We urge the other Great Powers to join us in recognizing the sovereign rights of the people of the Empire of China.

Quote from: The Japanese-Chinese Concession of 1929
In the spirit of friendship between our peoples, the Empire of Japan agrees to concede the privileges of extraterritoriality granted to Her citizens within the Empire of China as of January 1st, 1930. Japan will concede Her special privileges and leases in certain cities (the "treaty ports") within a year of this date. She will concede her trade privileges granted by these treaties within two years of that date. The Empire of Japan agrees to the principle that all future negotiations between Herself and the Empire of China will be as between equals.

X Inukai Tsuyoshi, Chief Minister to the Emperor of Japan.
87  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House Democrats leadership vote set for November 30th on: November 15, 2016, 07:54:29 pm
This is very dumb. I worked with an appropriations congressman in DC for two years. Tim Ryan left a very bad impression; he wasn't very good in approps and I doubt he'd be a great Minority Leader. The job of the minority leader is to keep the caucus united, make sure the right members are on the right committees, be the chief negotiator for her caucus with the other side and the White House, and to work with committee leaders to set the party's agenda in the House. It is not to win elections; that is the DNC's job. Nobody was asking if Paul Ryan was going to personally manage to preserve the majority.

Like her or not, Pelosi has been very VERY good at being the House Democratic leader. A change just for the sake of change would be pointless and would probably weaken the Democrat's position in the House even more.
88  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Swords of Damocles - Istanbul Conference (1929) on: November 15, 2016, 06:45:42 pm
Any such communications, were they exist, would be bilateral discussions between China and Japan. These hypothetical discussions would not have required input by either the British or Ottoman governments.
89  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Swords of Damocles - Istanbul Conference (1929) on: November 15, 2016, 06:11:35 pm
Neither the Empire of Japan nor the government of the French Republic have signed any agreement with the government of China as to the situation in the treaty ports. We have no intention to vacate any property or cede any privileges fairly secured and recognized in international law until we reach such an agreement.

For the government of China to say otherwise is a shocking diplomatic error which Japan demands that the Generalissimo retracts and apologizes for immediately.


Demand rescinded. We urge the British government to join us and all sensible people in recognizing the sovereign rights of the Chinese people and renouncing the privileges it took from the Chinese government in a moment of weakness.
90  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: In act of complete betrayal, LAPD won't help deport illegal immigrants on: November 15, 2016, 05:31:55 pm
^^Oh, please. Trump has already started backing off of the worst of his campaign promises. Do as Hillary said and enter his presidency with an open mind.

To some of the other replies: I get that it's not LAPD's job to personally escort people back across the border. But what the article is implying is that if the LAPD is arresting and detaining someone for x offense, and in the process of doing that, they happen to learn that person is an illegal immigrant, they will not report that to the federal police forces, unless the crime is "serious" (whatever that is supposed to mean) . Assuming that an order for deportation of illegal immigrants that have committed a crime aside from their immigration is enacted during a Trump presidency, which seems pretty likely to happen, doing the action I just described is direct noncompliance with the orders of and disloyalty to the federal government.


You misunderstand the nature of American Federalism. Police departments are state organizations, created by state legislatures to enforce state laws. They have no authority to enforce federal law unless the Federal government authorizes them to do so. Even then, it would be a violation of state sovereignty to force state officers to enforce another jurisdiction's laws. It would essentially be the Federal government forcing a (sovereign) state to make something illegal, which is very very unconstitutional.
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Don't assume the mood of the electorate too soon on: November 14, 2016, 09:51:38 am
I see a lot of people pre-crowning Bernie or Warren everywhere and it strikes me as trying to re-fight 2016 in advance. Do you really think this is going to happen? Think about the next four years: we will have to watch Trump flinging himself against the system constantly. We will see him (probably) replacing insiders with inexperienced firebrands and family members. We will see him create whatever mess he can imagine in foreign and trade policy.

Is it really guaranteed that after all that the electorate will want someone angry who will shake up the system? I think its just as possible that after four years of THAT the winning pitch will be something like "I am a NORMAL person who will actually achieve things by using the system, unlike this guy." I'm not sure who our Hollande would be, but I think Democrats are making a mistake in automatically assuming the same kind of anger in the future electorate. What are the justifications for making that assumption?
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Maine makes history on: November 14, 2016, 09:21:10 am
I am not saying it is difficult to understand. However, everything is about the margin, and the marginal voter might be confused that he is suddenly using numbers on his ballot where he previously used checkmarks. Maybe that drops turnout from 69% to 67%.

Is it so absurd to think that it is possible that 2% of the voting age population really is that stupid?

1. Yes, it is absurd. Voters are not incapable of simple reading comprehension. That some voters weigh or factor in different characteristics of a candidate or policies does not make them these people. Even the Bernie/Trump/LaPage/King voters.

2. Are you saying that you think 2% of voters will drive to their precinct, wait in line, get their ballot look at it and just throw up their hands and drive home? By that point they've already gone through all the effort that keeps people on the other side of the margin at home. More likely than any drop in voter turnout I'd expect a lot of voters who just ignore the new system and only preference one person; it makes more sense than giving up after taking the half an hour or so to vote in the first place.
93  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles (Gameplay Thread) (Late 1929) on: November 10, 2016, 05:47:06 pm
His Majesty Emperor Takahito is disquieted by the continued conflict between His people's friend, Generalissimo Chaing Kai-Shek and His brother-Emperor, Guangxu. While the Red Menace and foreign invaders threaten all the peoples of Asia, it is disturbing to see the great leaders of ancient China more focused on fighting each other. His Majesty call for a ceasefire to be declared and maintained between these good peoples.

His Majesty invites representatives of both Emperor Guangxu and Generalissimo Kai-Shek to join Him at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo in conference to resolve their differences like the noble gentlemen that His Majesty knows that they are. His Majesty Himself would act as host for this important conference, with his knowledgeable and diplomatic minister Tsuyoshi acting as moderator for technical discussions. 
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How do you feel right now ? on: November 09, 2016, 03:16:48 am
Like I need off this forum. I want off this party, this forum, this whole interest in politics, at least until good sense reasserts itself.
95  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: November 09, 2016, 02:49:26 am
Dereich
Deregistered

96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 11:33:14 am
If the Duval numbers hold up, Trump doesn't win the state. Duval going D would mean good things for black turnout and bad things for Trump's ability to get suburban whites to the polls for him. It should be an area where he'd gain on Romney if he was going to win the state.
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 11:09:46 am
Heeey, the Florida projection has Duval as the only tossup county in the state. My vote really REALLY matters.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DONALD TRUMP - DOES HE CONCEDE? FINAL ROUND on: November 08, 2016, 10:39:05 am
No/Yes. His advisors have prepared a concession speech for him, but when the moment comes I doubt he has the humility to go through with it. My guess is that he refuses to make any statement whatsoever once its clear he's lost; its not like its a requirement.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict total turnout tomorrow! on: November 08, 2016, 09:57:38 am
53%
100  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Election Night - Drink of Choice? on: November 04, 2016, 05:21:27 pm
Bourbon. Also, I've got a lot of sweet tea vodka, so I'll probably be mixing that with whatever I have on hand.
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