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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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76  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Century of Blood, the IV ASOIAF game Sign-Up Topic and Rules thread on: May 22, 2016, 12:20:23 am
Same here
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL- Florida Chamber of Commerce: Clinton +2 on: May 21, 2016, 12:56:33 pm
They haven't come home yet. Most of them are Establishment type Republicans and have been Rubio's base and part of the NeverTrump movement, so it will take some time before they accept Trump.

Florida Hispanics started coming home to the Democratic party in 2008 and especially 2012. Between Obama's opening to Cuba and Trump's rhetoric, that will only continue in 2016...

It looks like Trump may end up accelerating (or flat out completing) the realignment of Floridian Hispanics to the Democratic party that started in 2008, as you said:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/03/09/democratic-edge-in-hispanic-voter-registration-grows-in-florida/

The vast majority of new Democratic party members in FL over the past decade has been Hispanic voters, and you can see FL Hispanics abandoning the Republican party downballot straight up to 2014, where Scott only got 38% of Hispanics, vs something like 50% in 2010.

I wonder if Republicans understand just what is going on in Florida. The Florida younger GenX/Millennial generation(s) has been extremely Democratic and you can see them overtaking the 30 - 45 age group since 2004. Republicans better have an ace up their sleeve, because FL is drifting away from them pretty fast at this point. At this moment, the only age group in FL that is heavily Republican is 65+, and in 10 years, they will be replaced by voters that are about evenly split, with the 18 - 45 group being significantly more Democratic.

Don't put much faith in the "next generation" being the Democratic salvation in Florida. Since the 40s a large majority of Floridians have been born out of state and moved here; right now only 36% of Floridians were born in Florida and I expect that number to stay low in the future. How the younger generation being born here votes matters much less than the ideological make-up of the people who move here. Throwing those people into the equation makes it much more difficult to say there's some sort of demographic destiny for us.
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What if Bernie wins? on: May 20, 2016, 05:45:36 pm

Bernie has a snowball's chance to win this thing, but when all is said and done, he sure has had a great influence on the people of America and also on the political process. It's an influence that cannot be undone. Can anyone argue that Bernie hasn't helped steer the political conversation in a positive direction?

Almost everyone on the right, even Trump voters, would vehemently disagree with you.
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What if Bernie wins? on: May 20, 2016, 03:21:29 pm
Check out some of the general election polls in 2014; Hillary was up 10-20 on everybody and was one of the most popular politicians in the country. Time in the spotlight as the presumptive nominee reminds people of what they don't like about you and leaves them imagining some perfect alternative who would do no wrong. If it seriously looked like Bernie would be the nominee for just one minute, his numerous and glaring flaws would become everyone's focus. Nobody's popularity survives long term scrutiny and a cranky old socialist is far far FAR away from the type who could overcome that.
80  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: May 20, 2016, 02:12:35 pm
I got shivers reading the British description.

Eh, you weren't around for attack on Mecca.

Now, that was shivering.

Yeah, that was something else. I believe all players had a collective "holy ____!" (and I had one writing it myself). And spoiler alert, the Middle East Remembers.

PS: Apologies for killing Prince Albert (George VI) so randomly, but I couldn't stop myself.

I've been putting it off but if there's stuff like this in there which radically changed the world from OTL that'll be reappearing here I guess it's finally time to go through the old game threads.
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / What happens if Trump is indicted? on: May 20, 2016, 11:43:00 am
Everyone still likes to talk about the possibility of a Hillary indictment; what happens if it's the other way around? Trump always likes to excuse his lack of tax forms on being constantly audited; let's say they find something and indict him for tax evasion. What effect does it have on his supporters? On the GOP nomination and barely-supportive party members? On the election it general?
82  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: May 20, 2016, 10:59:55 am
I check this thread six or seven times a day. I need help.

I am checking this thread for the 5th time today now. Work is a bit slow to be fair, but still.
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could the Sandernistas hand Donald Trump the White House? on: May 19, 2016, 04:24:39 pm
Why does anyone think it's likelier that Sanders people will split the Democracts than Anti-Trump people will split the Republicans?

Both will happen, to an extent. Ideologically, many of the sanderistas are a lot closer to Trump than they are to any conventional Democrat, including Hillary Clinton (or, for that matter, Barack Obama).

Maybe they are ideologically closer to Trump if you weigh ideology like you do; that doesn't mean they'd vote for Trump. There is just as much an identity politics factor that would keep young white BernieBros away from Trump as would keep ideologically close blacks from voting for him too. Peer pressure and group identification will pull them grumbling into line just as easily as Pubs were pulled to Trump.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could the Sandernistas hand Donald Trump the White House? on: May 19, 2016, 04:15:20 pm
Why does anyone think it's likelier that Sanders people will split the Democracts than Anti-Trump people will split the Republicans? Hillary is about as conventional Democrat as you can get and Bernie people are almost exclusively people who always vote for Democrats. Trump came and hostilely took over his party leaving dozens of burnt bridges in his wake. I'd think it's still pretty clearly the case that the GOP primary was more divisive and acrimonious all around than the Democratic one; remember when nobody watched the Democratic debates because they were too civil?

The yes argument to the question seems loaded with present bias.
The GOP base is unified. Only the establishment circles were truly split, and those are well in the minority - well represented here on Atlas.

Exactly what I'm saying. The GOP is "unified" even though the gap between Trump and the Anti-Trumps was always larger than that between Hillary and Bernie. There is no reason to think the Democrats won't "unify" even faster or more thoroughly once the primary ends.
85  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could the Sandernistas hand Donald Trump the White House? on: May 19, 2016, 04:10:02 pm
Why does anyone think it's likelier that Sanders people will split the Democracts than Anti-Trump people will split the Republicans? Hillary is about as conventional Democrat as you can get and Bernie people are almost exclusively people who always vote for Democrats. Trump came and hostilely took over his party leaving dozens of burnt bridges in his wake. I'd think it's still pretty clearly the case that the GOP primary was more divisive and acrimonious all around than the Democratic one; remember when nobody watched the Democratic debates because they were too civil?

The yes argument to the question seems loaded with present bias.
86  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Posters During the American Civil War on: May 19, 2016, 02:06:20 pm
There aren't enough southerners in this thread to get many interesting opinions (alwaysbernie aside, whose opinions are very "interesting") since everyone from the North is obviously going to say they'd be a  Republican.

I'm pretty sure I would have been a supporter of popular sovereignty, making me a Douglas supporter. However, since he only ended up getting ~200 votes in Florida I might have gone for Bell as the moderate hero option. I'm not really sure what I would have done once the war got going. I'd probably get drafted and die of dysentery or something.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Jolly won't vote for TRUMP, CLC a reluctant supporter on: May 19, 2016, 10:12:56 am
Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

Explain this scandal, why Murphy's bad b/c of it, and why I should care in one (at the absolute most two) short/concise sentences using 3rd grade-level words.  If you can't then it won't matter.
This scandal is mostly bad for his parents, who may have broken finance laws. It would give his opponents ammo to attack him.

Won't matter then.  Weren't there domestic violence rumors with Murphy or am I thinking of someone else? 

Don't be so sure. The domestic violence allegations happened a few years ago and most voters haven't heard of them. On the other hand, 74% of voters still don't have an opinion of Murphy in that AIF poll earlier in the month. First hearing of a senate candidate through a scandal (even a minor one) creates a bad first impression and makes Grayson look better. If you're a voter going into the booth and you think BOTH guys are crooked, why not choose the one who will really stick it to the Republicans?
Several articles about Murphy controversies.
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/fdp-now-getting-rid-10k-al-rashid-donation
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/patrick-murphy-donates-contributions-from-friend-who-pleaded-guilty-to/2277613
Apparently he gave away some money he got from a friend who was later found guilty of domestic violence.

My mistake. I thought X was making a backhanded comparison to Grayson's domestic violence issues with that "or am I thinking of someone else" to imply that Murphy's problems weren't a big deal.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Jolly won't vote for TRUMP, CLC a reluctant supporter on: May 19, 2016, 08:56:29 am
Looks like investigation into Murphy's suspicious connections with Bera, and suspicious campaign fundung may actually be going somewhere.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/politics/elections/local/complaint-filed-by-conservative-group-accuses-murphy-of-violating-campaign-finance-laws-32f7cdb0-09c-379687961.html

Explain this scandal, why Murphy's bad b/c of it, and why I should care in one (at the absolute most two) short/concise sentences using 3rd grade-level words.  If you can't then it won't matter.
This scandal is mostly bad for his parents, who may have broken finance laws. It would give his opponents ammo to attack him.

Won't matter then.  Weren't there domestic violence rumors with Murphy or am I thinking of someone else? 

Don't be so sure. The domestic violence allegations happened a few years ago and most voters haven't heard of them. On the other hand, 74% of voters still don't have an opinion of Murphy in that AIF poll earlier in the month. First hearing of a senate candidate through a scandal (even a minor one) creates a bad first impression and makes Grayson look better. If you're a voter going into the booth and you think BOTH guys are crooked, why not choose the one who will really stick it to the Republicans?
89  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: May 18, 2016, 10:16:53 am
There's something I can't tell from the map: was the Panama/Nicaragua Canal ever built? I think I can see Suez in there, but I see nothing of the sort in Latin America.
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary will be our next president and here's why. on: May 17, 2016, 04:09:00 pm
Hillary will be the 45th president, this is why. People are saying Trump will take her down easy but he won't. He will try to attack her by using her emails, the Benghazi attack and Bill Clinton's "past". It will have "we heard it all" effect and it will backfire on Trump significantly it will cause his unfavorable rating to tank more. Hillary's unfavorable rating is in the 50s now but it will improve over the summer once everyone sees Trump for who he really is and once the media turns on him.

The turning point for Hillary will be the first presidential debate in September where she's seen as calm,presidential, and confident laughing off Trump whenever he insults her. Trump offers no clear plan on what he is gonna do for America over the next 4 years besides "build that wall!!" And that will be the end of him.

That is why I think Trump is DOA. He may be tied with Hillary in the polls that's only because that her and Bernie are still battling it out for the Democratic nomination. Once Bernie is out....expect her numbers to improve dramatically.  



She better hope she does not fracture the party with all this Bernie stuff imo

She's a well-known long-time Democrat holding mainstream Democratic positions and is the wife of a Democratic president. I'm not sure it'd be fair to say that people who refuse to back her in the general election were ever actually Democrats in the first place.
91  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: May 17, 2016, 04:00:36 pm
Communist Spain? I hope for their sake that France is going left-radical and not right-radical!

What particular brand of leftism is this Spain? I might have missed particulars; all I saw was that it's NOT anarchism.
92  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Serbian military leader Ratko Mladic? on: May 17, 2016, 09:48:24 am
I said FF, but only because you flipped the answers around from their normal spots. Consider one of those FFs an HP.
93  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: May 14, 2016, 09:35:22 am
I will move to Japan.

I already claimed Japan.
94  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: May 2016 Midwest Constitutional Amendment Ratification Voting Booth on: May 14, 2016, 09:27:06 am
Ratification of the Constitution:

[X] AYE
95  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Palin to make sure Ryan is primaried for not supporting Trump, ruin his 2020 on: May 13, 2016, 03:38:05 pm
So about this... I'm on the Romney mailing list since I donated to his campaign and apparently he's now doing a big fundraising mailer on behalf of Ryan for Congress. The letter even has a few backhanded attacks on Trump and Palin, saying "Ryan has never been one to engage in the divisive, hurtful politics of personal destruction and yet he is facing ugly attacks thanks to his courageous leadership."
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Twitterverse scratching its head at this Hillary tweet about trump on: May 13, 2016, 01:11:19 pm
Pop quiz, hackish red avatars: Do women and men get paid the same at the Clinton Foundation?

This equal pay crap spewing out of Crooked Hillary is nonsense. Trump has been a champion of women rising to prominent roles in the Trump Organization.  His statement there is a truism. If you do as good of a job as a man does, you should get paid the same. The converse is also true, if you do as good a job as a man as a woman does, you should get paid the same.

He didn't say "you should" he said "you're gonna." Very different implications there.
97  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: The Sword of Damocles - (Sign Up/Rules/Commentary Thread) on: May 13, 2016, 11:29:17 am
Honestly I'm not sure if I'll be able to do it well because I don't know enough about the major players and possibilities of the era, but I'd like to give Japan a try. I'll start research for possibilities soon.
98  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What is Trump's ideology? on: May 12, 2016, 12:54:59 pm
His ideology is Trump, his policies are all about GREAT DEALS, and his primary campaign method is Twitter rants. Easy.
99  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Republicans Only on: May 11, 2016, 11:11:43 am
JCL has the right line of approach here. Even though I don't really like the guy, I trusted that Cruz had the legal experience and ideological commitment to chose judicial nominees who were conservative and even more importantly good jurists. Someone who has clerked with SCOTUS isn't appointing a Roy Moore to the court.

Trump? First, I don't trust that his appointments will be either. I just flat out don't trust his judgment. Its impossible to know where he stands on issues because of his daily lies and flip-flops, so I don't expect conservative jurists. He doesn't stick to any of this other statements so I don't see why he'd stick to some list.

I also don't expect that he'll appoint good jurists. Justice Thomas told a group of us that when he was talking with Bush 1 the president looked him in the eye and told him "once you're up there, I won't hold it against you if you rule against me." He then repeated that several times in a row. Does anyone, ANYONE, expect Trump who had NEVER rolled with the punches or shown thick skin to do the same? I expect that Trump will want absolute loyalty to him, a TERRIBLE standard for the court. Plus, he has few advisors and those he does have aren't great and aren't listened to. I expect Trump to go for a toady and/or a terrible jurist. He wouldn't bring in a good Court.
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump tax plan. on: May 09, 2016, 06:29:07 am
I find it fascinating how the same people who condemned Cruz for shutting the government down over his intransigence is now up in arms that Trump is basically saying, he'll negotiate a deal, try to get as much as he wants but realizes he won't get everything.


What the hell is the problem here, except for the fact that you basically don't like Trump and everything he says and does is going to be twisted against him, even if means taking you guys are embracing Cruzite brinksmanship?

Jesus screaming Christ, he's calling for an end to the federal minimum wage now

It's disgraceful how the media that eviscerated Howard Dean for making a funny noise is giving Trump a pass on everything.

Thats actually considerable progress considering how in the last cycle, Romney went down flat on his face saying he opposed the minimum wage only to flip flop afterwards and say he supported raising it.

The basics of negotiation is that both sides walk in having an ideal position which they'd like to achieve and eventually reach a compromise somewhere between the two. Trump's frequent back-and-forth statements on increasing and lowering rates make it impossible to intelligently determine what goal he'll be walking into those negotiations to achieve.

Will his final goal be increased taxes on the wealthy? Will he walk into negotiations with a plan to cut taxes or will that immediately be tossed out once he's behind closed doors? We now have multiple sources at multiple different times saying opposite things. Part of electing a President is deciding whether or not we agree with a candidate on the issues. Is it possible to determine what Trump actually wants with tax rates on this? I don't see how, except by shots in the dark as to where he's telling the truth and where he's lying through his teeth.

Wanting to know where a presidential candidate actually stands isn't an embrace a Cruz-like intransigence. This is not what ANY of the "anti-brinksmanship" people wanted; it's swinging so far down the pendulum towards "negotiate" that you hit an equal and opposite faulty position.

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