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31
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General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: State Migration Trends, 1993-2008: From 'Blue' States to 'Red' States
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on: September 22, 2010, 11:48:52 pm
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Folks with the courage to uproot themselves, and go far away to find work (and in a place with the most unfriendly social safety net perhaps in the nation), are not a random sample of the population.
You mean, they have less conservative personalities? ... Yeah, OK, who knows how this reflects on political ideology (I certainly don't presume to) but that was too easy. I mean, there are four possible components to this phenomenon that I can think of. One is that the redder states tend to have more bureaucracy and therefore are more expensive to exist in. The second is that the bluer states make life cheaper by externalizing problems to their neighbors and into the future. The third is that the redder states tend to value certain things (e.g. rich culture, open space, social services, catering to NIMBYs) more than they do purely efficient spending. The fourth is that people in economically depressed states tend to vote for the party that promises more for the poor -- just look at Nevada's swing from '04 to '08.
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32
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Effective number of parties
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on: May 25, 2010, 11:19:53 am
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So yeah, the formula calculates essentially the amount of choice voters have. If you have $n$ parties which each get $1/n$ of the vote, then you get $1/(n(1/n^2))=n$ for the effective number of parties. If the parties are significantly imbalanced, that decreases the effective number. E.g. if there are two parties but one wins 2/3 of the vote, the effective number is $1/((2/3)^2+(1/3)^2)=9/5=1.8$. If anything, this overestimates this effective number, since if one party wins two-thirds of the vote, that's essentially a one-party system. Or if there are three parties which get 1/2, 1/4, and 1/4, we get $1/(1/4+1/16+1/16)=8/3$, even though that's essentially a two-party system. But maybe there's some sort of theory that makes this formula meaningful.
Btw, I suspect, Xahar, that you're hobbling yourself by claiming to be unable to do math.
(Edit: oh how fail I at counting!)
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37
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General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: DSM 5 may classify Marijuana as an addictive substance.
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on: March 15, 2010, 12:20:40 pm
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However, I would illegalize a drug called salvia. This drug is known for inclining teenagers to commit suicide. Its effects are like LSD or Heroin. Teenagers buy it because they think it will give them the same effects as Marijuana, but the effects are far worse. I had a friend who had to be sat for an hour by another friend because he wanted to jump out a third story window. He was apparently yelling, "Please kill me, please kill me. I want the pain to stop. When will this end. Please kill me." I've heard this story told many times.
That is incredibly incoherent. The pressure to make salvia illegal is largely based on the case of one teenager who wrote about salvia in his journal and several months later committed suicide. LSD is nothing like heroin, and salvia is nothing like either. Salvia trips only last about 15 minutes, and yes, the effects are unpredictable and it's wise to have a sober trip-sitter, but as far as we know the drug isn't dangerous physiologically or in terms of long-term psychological effects such as addiction.
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Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most Democratic County in Each State in 2008
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on: January 22, 2010, 12:49:02 am
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14. Taos County, New Mexico (Obama 81.82 - McCain 16.97 = D + 64.85) Majority (57.94%) Hispanic/Latino.
More importantly, though, an artsy/resort community. 30. Silver Bow County, Montana (Obama 68.51 - McCain 28.27 = D + 40.24) Contains Butte. Is this a liberal city? Universities? Read somewhere about labor unions?
Semi-defunct mining area, IIRC. 46. Summit County, Utah (Obama 56.34 - McCain 41.11 = D + 15.23) Not too sure on this county, either, but it has the second lowest percentage of Mormons in the state - was also one of two counties that voted against against the gay marriage ban.
Another ski resort area. As for the Kentucky and West Virginia places, Al will have plenty to say there.
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Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: SoCal watch out!
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on: January 20, 2010, 11:29:45 pm
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If its not the massive, out of control fires every year, Southern California, not here. Not to mention they tend to happen in the more rural areas (Oakland Hills fire aside), no? Yeah, but they make the air unbreathable everywhere. So glad I wasn't in Pasadena during the Station fire. I kind of wish I were there for this rain though... sounds fun. The weather in Chicago has been boring and annoying lately, weaving up and down around freezing, all the snow has half-melted into icy crap.
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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ukraine 2010
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on: January 18, 2010, 12:20:56 am
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Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious. (If you're Russian, of course.) The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties. And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".
Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet'  I've read about the first, yes.
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