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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Homely's UK Maps Thread on: Today at 06:14:50 am
Unfortunately in this instance there are very good reasons to suspect geographically significant differences in interpretation. It's a known fact, for instance, that white people are more likely to list their religion as 'Christian' if they live in or right next to a large concentration of minorities.

In London, perhaps (complicated by African/Carribean community presence). Though there is a striking difference in South London and again in the more 'trendy' parts of North London that are cheek by jowl next to non-Christian religious areas

I think there is a regional pattern here. Wales isn't shown (but was asked the same question) and there's a high wall of Nones at the border. Urban West Midlands is more 'pink' than urban West Yorkshire. Indeed outside the Severn/Wash line the map is almost topographic with deeper red hues in upland areas.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: Today at 06:04:18 am
That's true, of course. But nevertheless there is now reason to believe that the Yes campaign has some momentum, which hasn't really been the case before now (except in a slow treacly sense).

While I (have to) expect a No victory, I've been very surprised at how unfocused the No campaign is at the moment; there's a hint of perhaps misplaced desperation that is starting to seep into the public consensus. From the start, I don't think that No expected it would have to even try. Now that it just might have to, it's not sure what to say.

I think the key this time round are non voters and Labour voters. In 2011 Labour thought it would win and towards the end of the campaign thought it would loose but not by much of a larger margin than in 2007. It's vote held up in the 'swing' areas it was canvassing but collapsed in areas where it took it's vote for granted. It's very difficult to canvass for a referendum such as this but from what I've been aware of, No (who are fairly thin on the ground) are targeting areas that are 'swing' areas politically at the GE/Holyrood. I'm not entirely sure I see the logic in doing that.

If the polls move towards 50/50 and are in any way close to the mark, then it will all depend on who get's their supporters out to vote.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 01, 2014, 03:46:33 pm
Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gay teen attacked by family (VIDEO) on: September 01, 2014, 06:14:04 am
What is interesting about this is that it's the sort of 'conversation' that a lot of people face behind closed doors but is never captured for the world to see. Christianity/faith can be an enabler of hate; something that is clung to that overrides common sense and even family, with dark and disturbing consequences.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Ernest on: September 01, 2014, 03:20:41 am

That's a bear pride rainbow :p
6  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Doctor Who - Series 8 on: August 31, 2014, 03:09:41 pm
Episode 2 was rather good. It was also quite different. Murray Gold is more electronic, less bombastic. It's less frantic too. I tend to hate Dalek episodes (2005's 'Dalek' excluded) but I enjoyed this.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: August 29, 2014, 05:00:06 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Which is why they will never let you see this;

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/fife/margo-macdonald-and-jim-sillars-the-target-of-vile-attack-in-fife-1.513018

Because eggs is eggs...
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: August 29, 2014, 06:08:35 am
There was the first debate. The snap ICM poll of debate viewers showed no change in voting intention but suggested Darling had won the debate. Survation however came out with a larger No lead than it's previous poll. Cue 'Salmond finished' headlines for the next 10 days. YouGov said there was little change and then two polls said that Yes had closed the gap. Then came the second debate. Snap ICM poll showed no change in voting intention but suggested that Salmond had won the debate. Survation then came out with a poll showing that Yes had narrowed the gap, even though this was them reverting to the previous levels of support...

And so it continues.

The problem for the pollsters is this.

1. They are polling Scotland.
2. They are polling a referendum.
3. They are used to weighing by voting intention but can't decide by which election on which to do so.
4. They are having to adjust for men/women.
5. They are having to adjust for how many 'English' born are in Scotland because they are disproportionate No voters except in some samples where they are not.
6. They don't know what the turnout is going to be because the polls suggest it might be the highest in two generations yet experience would suggest something high, but more modest
7. They don't know who is more likely to turnout if the turnout is high or low
8. If they get it wrong and get red faces, it's not as if they are going to be faced with polling the same issue again.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone II - Less Boring, More Whoring on: August 26, 2014, 03:05:21 pm
Currently in Dublin.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014 on: August 25, 2014, 05:01:00 pm
Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

Well if shouty Salmond had let anybody get a word in edgeways...

He wasn't particularly shouty in either debate. I'll take the 51-49 to no voting intention with ICM. It's a good start.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014 on: August 25, 2014, 04:26:02 pm
I'm happy with how that turned out.
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Doctor Who - Series 8 on: August 25, 2014, 12:29:43 pm
Looked like Queens Street in Cardiff to me Tongue

Yes it was. Not a bad stand-in Smiley
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2014 Selfie Creepfest/Post a picture of yourself thread on: August 25, 2014, 06:22:20 am
Isn't there supposed to be ice in the bucket?

There was. And ice cold water too.

The lack of melanin on this forum, and particularly this topic, is deeply concerning.

I'm Scottish you racist. What have you got against people with blue skin? Tongue
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is this post racially insensitive? on: August 25, 2014, 06:17:48 am
No. He was so overcautious in trying not to be insensitive, that he in fact was. We all do it.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: August 25, 2014, 06:05:03 am
A few thoughts on Scotland.

If 2015 was a business as usual election (no referendum campaign) I'd expect every Lib Dem loss to be to the SNP with the exception of East Dunbartonshire with no Labour losses except possibly, Stirling due to the sitting MP stepping down. That's what forecasts will be showing.

However given the referendum if it's a Yes vote then Scottish seats might not even be competitive. If it's a No vote, then it should not be assumed that the rump forty-something percent who voted no will move back to their respective parties particularly as 'what now?' will be an election issue in Scotland. The SNP could potentially do rather well.
16  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Doctor Who - Series 8 on: August 25, 2014, 05:47:52 am
Classic Moffat Doctor Who - a succession of gimmicks threaded together by innuendo, ridiculous characters and general strangeness. What's more, it appears that the incredibly-incompetent-not-at-all-frightening-yet-somehow-considered-to-represent-the-gold-standard-of-villainy Daleks will be making yet another appearence next time round. I mean, going back to this episode, is the programme's name 'Doctor Who' or 'Madame Vastra', because, you know, it was looking like the latter for much of it Tongue.

I completely agree. I'm appalled that he wasn't wearing a gharish costume or resorting to pop culture cliches. His assistant didn't do enough screaming and this episode was only what, 75 minutes long? I was expecting this to last at least four weeks. Not one single quarry shot either. I don't know why I pay my license fee. It's insulting.

'Good eras of Doctor Who are all alike*, but every sh**tty era of Doctor Who is sh**tty in its own way.'

N.B. I'm pretty sure I don't agree with Cassius's reasons for being down on the Moffat era. I like Madame Vastra, and Daleks are less overused than they were under RTD.

*Obviously this isn't actually true.

EDIT: Capaldi is brilliant as always.

For me, Moffat get's sh@t on undeservedly, but so too did RTD. It seems part of the territory Smiley

I liked the pace of the episode. I think Capaldi is amazing in everything he puts his mind to and I was really pleased he was given good chunks of dialogue to work with. It means they can start writing for him, rather than for a generic doctor. I've always liked Clara but felt they didn't know what to do with her until now. Jenna Coleman was exceptional and the scene where she had to hold her breath was in itself so simple but very tense. I don't like or dislike the Paternoster Gang but they worked here. Because Doctor Who handles such things so well, I didnít even notice the kiss. I did notice the declaration of love which is how it should be really.

Big applause in the cinema for them getting lost in Glasgow at the end. Glasgow still has lots of police boxes dotted around the city so itís not an unusual sight. I think itís even supposed to Ďbeí one of them on Buchanan Street.

I do wonder what Paradise/Heaven is? In keeping with the humanist slant of the show (Clara name checked Marcus Aurelius again), I wonder what they are going to do with the concept? The Doctor acts as the independent intelligent observer that we currently lack who, if he were available, could confirm or deny the reality of human perception and understanding. Obviously ĎParadiseí is a ruse but I hope itís approached/írumbledí in a somewhat philosophical way, like Rings of Akhaten.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which party would other countries vote for? on: August 24, 2014, 04:02:15 pm
UK might just have picked Nixon over Kennedy, might have went for Ford and probably would have went for Bush 1. After that however it would become an increasingly safer Democratic state.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014 on: August 24, 2014, 11:20:57 am
Depends on whether he makes a coherent response to the currency issue.

Here's the interesting thing, the polls a week after the debate, after the issue of the currency had been talked about ad nauseam to the point that it was apparently the end of Salmond's career, narrowed. I think standing his ground actually worked retrospectively.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2014 Selfie Creepfest/Post a picture of yourself thread on: August 24, 2014, 09:23:48 am
I was challenged...



20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Doctor Who - Series 8 on: August 24, 2014, 05:24:35 am
Classic Moffat Doctor Who - a succession of gimmicks threaded together by innuendo, ridiculous characters and general strangeness. What's more, it appears that the incredibly-incompetent-not-at-all-frightening-yet-somehow-considered-to-represent-the-gold-standard-of-villainy Daleks will be making yet another appearence next time round. I mean, going back to this episode, is the programme's name 'Doctor Who' or 'Madame Vastra', because, you know, it was looking like the latter for much of it Tongue.

I completely agree. I'm appalled that he wasn't wearing a gharish costume or resorting to pop culture cliches. His assistant didn't do enough screaming and this episode was only what, 75 minutes long? I was expecting this to last at least four weeks. Not one single quarry shot either. I don't know why I pay my license fee. It's insulting.
21  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Kate Bush on: August 22, 2014, 06:01:01 pm
My favourite Bush.

^

One of the best. As I said when I did make this as a poll a while back, she's one of the most fecund and influential artists of the past thirty or forty years, and if you narrow it down to solo artists (women or otherwise, really), that expands to all time, at least in the realm of popular music.

The Dreaming and Hounds of Love are obviously magisterial achievements, but I'm very fond of Never For Ever as well and don't believe that it gets as much attention as it deserves.

There's something very maternal about Never For Ever which for some people makes it, quite rightly a challenge. It not the first to deal with such themes but it's very direct. Song wise, I've forgotten how much I love 'Sat in your lap' the video of which piqued my adolescent sexuality some twenty years ago (which I would be happy to psychoanalyse 'but I don't have no energy' Wink ) And more recently 'Wow' which is just luscious.
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Opinion of Kate Bush on: August 22, 2014, 05:27:05 pm
No poll on this one.

Just magical.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If the rest of the world joined the USA... what would change? on: August 22, 2014, 03:57:22 pm
I'd revolt.
24  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Doctor Who - Series 8 on: August 22, 2014, 01:58:08 pm
One more sleep Smiley
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What do your family and friends think when they see the Atlas Forum? on: August 22, 2014, 12:33:10 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4ECb_fmLUU
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