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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016 on: August 23, 2016, 12:09:52 pm

It's a Blairite/Tory conspiracy clearly.
2  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Do you support heterosexual marriage? on: August 22, 2016, 10:53:33 am
With 1 in 3 heterosexual marriages ending in divorce they obviously don't take it seriously enough Wink
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is it just me, or FiveThirtyEight changing? on: August 22, 2016, 10:17:46 am
I go with Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump's UUUUUUGE debt on: August 20, 2016, 02:58:32 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/us/politics/donald-trump-debt.html

'An investigation by The New York Times into the financial maze of Mr. Trumpís real estate holdings in the United States reveals that companies he owns have at least $650 million in debt ó twice the amount that can be gleaned from public filings he has made as part of his bid for the White House. The Timesís inquiry also found that Mr. Trumpís fortunes depend deeply on a wide array of financial backers, including one he has cited in attacks during his campaign.'
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6 on: August 20, 2016, 01:04:42 pm
Any move back to 'pre convention' polling would still give Clinton an Obama 2012 style victory.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump and Clinton Tied in LA Times Poll on: August 20, 2016, 10:56:40 am
The media like tracker polls because they link to think races work that way. That people watch 'the media' and follow each twist and turn and jump between options all thanks to their excellent work as 'the media'. It's the same reason why people pin all their hopes on 'black swans' that also don't tend to have much of an effect in a race. But races don't work that way.

Sifting a few thousand voters from the national pool and following them having fun with answering the same questions each day is an exercise in poll responses but that's about it. 'Oh something happened in the news today, I should answer to reflect that', when actually they've probably made their minds up months ago.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump hit Romney's numbers among white voters? on: August 19, 2016, 12:25:14 pm
Not unless something dramatic happens during the debates. The college educated whites are smart enough to see through the new teleprompter Trump.

They won't turn out.


The college whites had a 77% turnout rate, non college whites were at 57%
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Cincinatti Zoo officials shoot and kill gorilla after child falls into enclosure on: August 19, 2016, 06:15:25 am
As much as 'speciesism' is frankly annoying,

I thought you identified as a humanist.

I am. I don't see why I should lack concern for the wellbeing of animals given that animal husbandry is one of the hallmarks of what makes us human.
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Cincinatti Zoo officials shoot and kill gorilla after child falls into enclosure on: August 19, 2016, 04:48:03 am
As much as 'speciesism' is frankly annoying, if the boy falls in and calls out in distress or his mother does then because I can understand him and I cannot communicate with the gorilla, I can't be blind to the calls for help. That would be inhuman. So I would save the child.

Likewise if Johnny Human is having fun torturing another gorilla and the gorilla is distressed, I'd immobilise the human because I can understand the gorilla's distress.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Mother and son in love in N.M. will go to jail to defend their relationship on: August 19, 2016, 04:27:05 am
Never thought I'd say this, but this thread is a perfect example of "who am I to judge" attitude going too far.

I'm still waiting for somebody to explain why the consenting relationship itself should be illegal.

Multiple people have.

Where?  I've seen "eww I think this is icky so they must be crazy", but nothing that actually addresses my question from a more objective standpoint.

Why should "it's icky" not be as valid a reason for policy as anything else?

Vaginal sex is icky. I demand legislation to address this.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which candidate will sell the most Halloween masks? on: August 19, 2016, 04:17:58 am
'Slutty Trump' anyone?
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Mother and son in love in N.M. will go to jail to defend their relationship on: August 18, 2016, 05:36:26 pm

Are you being deliberately obtuse, or do you seriously not conceive that some people might value the psychological well-being of the woman (and, thereby, how she herself perceives and understands her pregnancy)? No, surely there has to be some sinister amoral intent behind all this. Roll Eyes


^^^

Mental health is a legitimate medical state. A woman's mental state must always be addressed when dealing with pregnancy.

The only way to avoid the harm of pregnancy, if it is a mental harm, is to either use contraception in the first instance or to abort or to induce labour whether viable or unviable. Thatís it. If itís viable, itís Ďborní; the state of pregnancy has ended. It is no longer an ethical battleground. If it's not viable, it won't ever become viable unless the woman is exposed to increased or sustained suffering.

Opposing abortion because you elevate physical harm over psychological harm by default accepts that morally, you prohibit a woman from taking any action against any physical or psychological harm caused as a result of her pregnancy.
13  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Mother and son in love in N.M. will go to jail to defend their relationship on: August 18, 2016, 05:10:52 pm
Quote from:  link=topic=243482.msg5222429#msg5222429 date=1471536487
I am (and always have been) against considering "morality", a notion I thoroughly oppose but whose effects I do not particularly abhor in respect to efficacy, in the making of law. Such consideration would be  tantamount to legislating based off of religious doctrine, in the face of that for which America stands.

The relationship itself is questionable but not inherently dangerous. The line is clearly vaginal sex with insertion of the penis. Anything short of that, in my opinion, should be well legal. However, it is neither the government's duty nor right to legislate exactly what actions may be taken in the bedroom.

Considering all of this, I conclude that such a relationship should be legal, and were there to be a pregnancy, abortion should be mandatory.

obama pls ban, mods pls drone

What's wrong with that? Surely we're just talking about a bunch of cells here, no?

Oh for f**k's sake, don't start playing gotchas with this. There are just as many reasons to find this post absolutely horrifying from a pro-choice perspective as there are from a pro-life perspective, and you know it.

Fair enough. For some reason I was under the impression you'd emphasized the last sentence.

I'm no longer pro-choice, but typically the idea is that one does get a choice (whether or not most women who have abortions are actually given meaningful options is another question). Forced abortion is (ideally) just as anathema to that mindset as is being compelled to carry a pregnancy to term.

So you're still 'pro-choice' then (even if you don't like that quintessentially American terminology), if you think so strongly against the absurdity and disgrace of a woman being compelled to carry a pregnancy to term?

I can't tell if this is a gotcha or if I actually wrote this unclearly. I think forcing someone to kill their offspring is worse than forcing someone not to kill their offspring. If I didn't think that the conceptus was a person or had rights, which Antonio doesn't, I would think both were equally bad.

It's not a gotcha Smiley But I was just curious as to why one extreme piques your concern and not the other.
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Mother and son in love in N.M. will go to jail to defend their relationship on: August 18, 2016, 04:46:48 pm
Quote from:  link=topic=243482.msg5222429#msg5222429 date=1471536487
I am (and always have been) against considering "morality", a notion I thoroughly oppose but whose effects I do not particularly abhor in respect to efficacy, in the making of law. Such consideration would be  tantamount to legislating based off of religious doctrine, in the face of that for which America stands.

The relationship itself is questionable but not inherently dangerous. The line is clearly vaginal sex with insertion of the penis. Anything short of that, in my opinion, should be well legal. However, it is neither the government's duty nor right to legislate exactly what actions may be taken in the bedroom.

Considering all of this, I conclude that such a relationship should be legal, and were there to be a pregnancy, abortion should be mandatory.

obama pls ban, mods pls drone

What's wrong with that? Surely we're just talking about a bunch of cells here, no?

Oh for f**k's sake, don't start playing gotchas with this. There are just as many reasons to find this post absolutely horrifying from a pro-choice perspective as there are from a pro-life perspective, and you know it.

Fair enough. For some reason I was under the impression you'd emphasized the last sentence.

I'm no longer pro-choice, but typically the idea is that one does get a choice (whether or not most women who have abortions are actually given meaningful options is another question). Forced abortion is (ideally) just as anathema to that mindset as is being compelled to carry a pregnancy to term.

So you're still 'pro-choice' then (even if you don't like that quintessentially American terminology), if you think so strongly against the absurdity and disgrace of a woman being compelled to carry a pregnancy to term?
15  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Mother and son in love in N.M. will go to jail to defend their relationship on: August 18, 2016, 10:53:59 am

The whole issue itself is nuanced. If we wish for incest to be illegal how can we justify it? Evidently there is no physical harm to those who participate in sexual acts. If we start thinking about the detriment to progeny, then that takes the stance that such things 'matter' over the relationship. If such things matter at 'mother-son' level, then why not at first cousin level? (which some jurisdictions and traditions are okay with). If they matter because birth defects/disabilities matter, rather than straightforward incest, then that should also matter for non incestuous progeny, which would be a form of eugenics. That's saying to people you cannot have sex/be together and that this relationship is invalid because of issues that may arise with offspring, because offspring matters more than the quality of the relationship. Then you have the quality of the relationship. Which is much murkier, because you have to start talking about 'love.'  You might not understand an incestunous relationship. It might repluse you. It might anger you, but then so to does my relationship in the eyes of sadly too many. And any appeals I make to human biology and genetics and evolutionary theory and basic human worth won't sway people who are 'replused' by that.

So you have to approach this matter somewhat more tentitively. I do not agree with incest, but I acknowledge that it is difficult for me to actually argue why I disagree and why I think it should be prohibited in law. It is one of the very few base acts, alongside acts of rape and 'post pubescent on pre pubescent' acts that I take issue with. I can argue coherently and consistently as to why rape is wrong and why adult sexual activity with children is wrong and why this should be enforced, but arguing why incest is wrong other than 'because it's weird and it just is', is not easy.

For those who go down the 'capacpity' route be very careful. I have spent years in my regular work assisting victims of crime who have suffered severe mental health issues and disabilities. You can be disabled; physically or mentally and have capacity to make choices, even bad ones. You can have capacity to consent to sexual activity.
16  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Opinion on 'burkini' ban? on: August 18, 2016, 07:30:53 am
The garment allows women to compete or participate in sports with mobility so you shouldn't ban it.  However the fact that they couldn't, until this garment became widespread still stems from a fundamentalist interpretation of what constitutes 'modesty'.
17  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Humanist marriage now top religious marriage in Scotland. on: August 17, 2016, 11:54:07 am
http://hfofs.co.uk/humanist-wedding-ceremonies/wedding-ceremony-testimonials/

These are people's experiences
18  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Humanist marriage now top religious marriage in Scotland. on: August 17, 2016, 08:07:36 am
Evangelical = talks about being a humanist I get it. Trust me, on here I get it.
19  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Humanist marriage now top religious marriage in Scotland. on: August 17, 2016, 07:22:39 am
Also for balance read the Christian Post and paste the eye rolling quote.

...what?

You linked to an article. Are you surprised people have opinions on its contents? And then I'm the one who's being defensive?

Um. I was joshing. I missed putting a Smiley at the end. Tony, you need to start stepping back before you post. This is getting ridiculous!
20  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Humanist marriage now top religious marriage in Scotland. on: August 17, 2016, 07:02:39 am
Interesting idea. I'd be curious to see what those ceremonies look like, as the article is rather elusive.

Why exactly would other countries have to "make it legal" though? Surely not many countries have laws that ban people from celebrating their marriages as they wish.


Also,

Quote
It shows that more and more people in Scotland are opting for a rational and empathic approach to life.

Roll Eyes

My brother and sister have had them. My brother will next year. Also for balance read the Christian Post and paste the eye rolling quote Cheesy

Edited.








21  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Humanist marriage now top religious marriage in Scotland. on: August 17, 2016, 06:34:27 am
http://m.fifetoday.co.uk/news/more-couples-choosing-humanist-weddings-1-4203698

Civil marriages, which are by definition not religious still dominate but humanist marriages, classified as a religious marriage (with humanist celebrants consider as equal to religious celebrants) is now the most popular recorded form of religious marriage in Scotland.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Map based on predicted winning % by state on: August 16, 2016, 04:20:22 pm
This is subject to change and based on historical patterns, past polling, and my own personal predictions.

You lie.

I used polling as a basis but it does not entirely consist of polling. I also used historical polling trends. This would all be subject to change as the election progresses but I have been keeping an eye on things.

What are the trends, what is the source and what regression model have you specifically applied?
23  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: I made a super detailed map of religion in Scotland on: August 16, 2016, 02:05:57 pm
Right.

Here is the national picture; the figures in brackets are for those aged 0-15

No Religion   36.7 (47.9)
Church of Scotland   32.4 (21.3)
Roman Catholic   15.9 (15.3)
Other Christian   5.5 (4.2)
Buddhist   0.2 (0.1)
Sikh          0.2 (0.2)
Hindu   0.3 (0.3)
Jewish   0.1 (0.1)
Muslim   1.4 (2.5)

Another Religion     0.3 (0.1)
Not Answered   7 (8.1) (geographically correlates with 'No Religion')

You might want to grab a map

Firstly, most Catholics (less South Uist) are Irish/Polish/Lithuanian/Italian emigres. They are to be found where they have always been found, in particular Lanarkshire (Coatbridge, Wishaw and my hometown of Blantyre). As I mentioned earlier, where Catholic identity is strong, local Protestant identity is strong (Airdrie to Coatbridge, Motherwell to Wishaw). You can even loosely see that where Celtic Park and Ibrox are to be found.

In New Towns (established post war), transplanted populations were unintentionally mixed. So patterns in East Kilbride and Cumbernauld are more patchwork and are more 'None' than surrounding towns. Paisley, and older established mill town, is more 'None'

It's also worth noting that protestant religiousity rises with prosperity (based on comparing the data zones results for the census with the Index of Multiple Deprivation). More deprived areas are proportionately more Catholic or None.

Outside of Clydeside presence is much thinner.

In Glasgow we have the strong Muslim population in Pollockshields; fairly wealthy. It also bleeds into Newton Mearns, also wealthy where 40% of Scotland's Jews reside. In Glasgow, the Nones are found in the city centre and into the west end; student areas, young areas and areas where young couples are buying in the city (Dennistoun, Queens Park etc)

Edinburgh is not too dissimilar as is Aberdeen and Dundee (except without the Catholic presence). Traditionally 'Tory' areas demonstrate high Protestant identity.

Here we have an old map I made showing results by constituency;




24  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: I made a super detailed map of religion in Scotland on: August 16, 2016, 11:33:33 am
Wow, the Outer Hebrides really stand out.

Much of the map is cultural. Strong Catholic identity areas have strong Protestant identity areas right next to them (see Lanarkshire) which then dissipates a few miles outside which I'll touch on later. South Uist is the sole pre reformation Catholic survivor due to clan patronage.
25  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: I made a super detailed map of religion in Scotland on: August 16, 2016, 09:54:26 am
I wonder where the Mormons in Scotland are.... Obviously they would fall under Protestant so they wouldn't be visible on this map anyway. Excellent map in any case. What are the biggest Scottish Protestant denominations?

I'll do a full walk through this map. It's excellent work. I wouldn't lump Protestantism together but I know it's for consistency with his other maps and only 1 in 7 protestants are not Church of Scotland.

Mormons are found in the major university cities and have connections with American students. There is a sizable 'native' community too, particularly in Aberdeen which sent a Mormon Member of the Scottish Parliament until his death; SNP's Brian Adam.
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