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December 06, 2016, 02:48:54 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Hagrid on: November 14, 2016, 01:45:39 pm
F-ck you all for forcing me to come back out of exile for a single post.

If you think Hagrid is an HP you have no joy in your heart. There is literally nothing wrong with this kid. Nothing. He does nothing to slight anyone. He's been through a lot personally and in many things has done a complete 180. That's not an easy thing to do, and unlike most posters on here has 180ed in a way that actually doesn't make him a crucifix clutching asshole. When I drop by on Facebook he's happy. He's enjoying life and doing and experiencing new things. Let him feel for f-cks sake.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Guys... on: November 11, 2016, 05:42:14 pm
If Afleitch can't handle a little ribbing on Atlas Forum, then he probably is in his personal life a complete mess. Good posters are only embarrassing themselves and exposing their own psychological weaknesses. Sad!

Go f-ck yourself you piece of pasty diarrhoeic sh-t Cheesy
You're abandoning a community you've been part of for years over an election result. Something is obviously amiss here aside from the result. Even Comey could solve that mystery.

I'm 32, married and working as a higher officer in the civil service in a job I started in July. I don't have the time.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Guys... on: November 11, 2016, 04:20:01 pm
If Afleitch can't handle a little ribbing on Atlas Forum, then he probably is in his personal life a complete mess. Good posters are only embarrassing themselves and exposing their own psychological weaknesses. Sad!

Go f-ck yourself you piece of pasty diarrhoeic sh-t Cheesy
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / So long and thanks for all the pish! (j/k):D on: November 09, 2016, 06:39:46 am
It's been 13 years.

It's time to go. This is going to be an effort post, but I've been here long enough to think I deserve one Cheesy

I had made a decision, for my own and my husband's sanity, to leave anyway. What happened last night was a shock, but I knew it was coming eventually, if not now, then in mid terms, or in four years. You can't bottle something like that up once it's been let loose. The new reality of politics makes posting on a site like this more of a stress, more of an effort than a pleasure. It's been hard these past few years to be in the position that I have been, where I am in a country (the UK) that I don't want to be part of. I am not British. But I am Scottish, regardless of where we are constitutionally.

But my husband is American and that aspect of politics has always been a burning passion for me. It's why I joined all those years ago. But he has also made it very real these past five years.  I can't console him, ashen faced at 3am and then wade through the entrails online, disconnected from the effect it has. I can't do it anymore. It isn't fair.

It's just stopped being fun. I always promised myself I would stop, when that happened. It's happened so I'm stopping.

I had written a few parting shots. A few thanks and a few annoyances, but I decided not to, because ultimately I hope I have more friends than enemies. I know who likes me and who doesn't and it's been a relief, even with the potential for online anonymity to be myself and be judged based on that.

Unfortunately for me, all my maps are on here. So I want to leave them hosted. I won't be doing the random password re-set but I'll be here for a week or so to wrap things up. Do I promise not to be back? No; if anything happens on my doorstop I'll drop by. If Russian warplanes screech overhead, I'll let you know.

So. Bye Smiley

(Strangely cathartic)

Andrew
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: It's time to re-unite the Atlas Forum on: November 09, 2016, 03:50:31 am
No.
Personally, I think it's time I got going.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 04:05:39 pm
tl;dr turnout is extremely high basically everywhere except for AA areas where it's lower (I would have thought it was obvious that the AA vote would decline without Obama but apparently some people are surprised by this)

Calling it now, this election is going to come down to the educated white vote. If Trump wins, it's because the educated white vote swung back to him and gave him the edge in NC, NH and the Midwest. If he loses, it'll be because they voted Clinton instead.

I'd give Clinton an 85% chance at winning, but I'm almost certain that the crosstab story of the cycle will be how whoever won was pushed over the edge by a proportionate advantage with educated white voters.

And Hispanics?...
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 03:42:21 pm
It's not entirely clear what the model as actually modeling at this point.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I will now accept my accolades on: November 08, 2016, 03:20:33 pm
I tried to tell you what was going on.  I really tried.  This looks like a landslide, folks.

LOL.
If you are in Great Britain, we have not seen any results yet.
And if there is a "landslide" as you say, who are you projecting a landslide for (Clinton or trump) ?

And never f-cking visited Cheesy
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I will now accept my accolades on: November 08, 2016, 03:18:36 pm
You told us nuh'in.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 11:14:10 am
Are early votes usually lean D or lean R?
Democratic.

If you're talking about early in the day, then no. A model like this made Obama think he was down in Ohio until after 5pm when after work voters came out.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 11:10:31 am
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate/Votecastr real time election projections on: November 08, 2016, 10:43:12 am
You do realise for self promotional purposes, they want to have some sort of suspenseful narrative Smiley
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Catholic priest put an aborted fetus on the altar in an appeal for Donald Trump on: November 08, 2016, 06:53:16 am


Hillary Clinton supports partial birth abortion; the killing of a viable fetus after an abortion.  That's what partial birth abortion is. 


No. It isn't.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / The 'I voted' thread. on: November 08, 2016, 05:04:40 am
Suprised we don't have one.

Anyway, the husband voted Clinton/Kaine and a straight Dem ticket.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 07, 2016, 09:39:11 am
Either way, Republicans perpetually getting only <25% of the Hispanic vote would be awful for their long-term electoral prospects. Even if Hispanic turnout only increases a little, their pop. growth is still significant and will continue to shrink the GOP's share of the electorate every 4 years like clockwork.
Culturally, Hispanics are much more closer to non-Hispanics white than to Blacks (at least in Sweden). They indeed might be assimilated into white culture. Blacks are though lost for GOP.

I might see how GOP transforms partly into "worker class party", still holds Whites, but "assimilates" more Hispanics.

Hispanics in Sweden?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Slate and Votecastr to break election results embargo with live projections on election day on: November 07, 2016, 08:00:16 am
A word of caution:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/you-may-need-a-strong-stomach-for-the-pitfalls-of-real-time-election-projections.html?_r=0

'One obstacle is that turnout varies over time: Younger voters donít usually vote in the morning, and many voters in nine-to-five jobs might surge to the polls in the evening.

This was one of the big challenges for the Obama campaign in 2012. By 10:30 a.m., its model had concluded that young and nonwhite voters werenít showing up in Ohio. These trends worked themselves out by the end of the day, but not before causing considerable consternation in the Cave.

The VoteCastr model makes no effort to adjust for this. It will treat turnout as if itís uniform throughout the day: If 10 percent of the day has passed, it will expect 10 percent of the vote to be counted. This can cause considerable variance in the estimates as the hours go by.'
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: November 07, 2016, 07:52:44 am
I love these solid national polls are driving Clinton down in the model :/
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions Final Poll: Clinton 76, Trump 14 on: November 06, 2016, 02:23:49 pm
Outside the white bubble of 'both as bad as each other' angst, Latinos actually like Clinton. Her favourables are high. These figures might be a tad high when it comes down to it, but they are not unexpected.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 01:33:07 pm
To prove my point about uneducated white voters (Reps and Dems) if Florida and other ~similar states. It is not completely off-topic here, since we were talking about Dixiecrats.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/upshot/why-the-election-is-close-and-what-trump-and-obama-have-in-common.html
Quote
Why the Election Is Close, and What Trump and Obama Have in Common

Donald J. Trump is in striking distance of winning the election with two days to go, and thereís really just one reason for that: Heís leading white voters without a college degree by a huge margin.

In recent national surveys, Mr. Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 59 percent to 30 percent among that group. Itís larger than the 57-35 lead that Mitt Romney had with those voters in the final polls in 2012.

On their own, Mr. Trumpís gains among this group have been enough to cancel out four years of favorable demographic shifts for Democrats among Hispanic and well-educated white voters.

He has even won supporters among some of the same white voters who were supporters of Barack Obama in 2008. It suggests that Mr. Trump and Mr. Obama might have a little more in common than you might think ó at least from a political standpoint.
Quote
But Mr. Trumpís strength among the white working class gives him a real chance for an Electoral College victory, a possibility that was largely discounted as recently as the summer. He could even win enough electoral votes without winning the popular vote, since Democrats depend on strong support among white working-class voters in Midwestern and Northeastern battlegrounds like Wisconsin and New Hampshire. It could even be enough for Mr. Trump to win Florida, where Mrs. Clintonís strength among Hispanic voters would otherwise all but doom a Republican.



What looks like a 7 point drop for Clinton amongst those without a degree is amongst a group with a 55% turnout in 2012.

What looks like a 12 point jump in support for Clinton amongst those with a degree is amongst a group with a 78% turnout rate in 2012.

So for every vote lost (assuming no change in turnout correlation, even if white voters as a whole go up) through non college educated voters, she's picking up 2.4 amongst those who are college educated.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH - Columbus Dispatch: Clinton +1 on: November 06, 2016, 12:48:39 pm
I would love to see the University of Cincinnati poll (Ohio poll)

I'm definitely interested to see what they have to say.  In 2012, it came out on the day before the election I believe.

Obama +1 50/49
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Fun with Polling: Hispanic Edition - Take 2 on: November 04, 2016, 06:00:38 pm
Here we are again four years later

Here we stood back in 2012;

Quote
The biggest survey of it's kind, Latino Decisions http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/22/latino-voters-highly-engaged-in-presidential-election-support-for-obama-rises/ has been conducting a large scale tracking poll in both English and Spanish for Hispanic/Latino voters in America. In most national polls Hispanic's are a small subset of voters; at time's no more than 50-100 people polled. However these small sample sizes can impact on the reported poll results.

Latino Decisions as of today found that 71% said they would vote for Obama. 20% said they would vote for Romney. During the aftermath of first debate 'bounce' the figures were 67-23. The Pew Hispanic Center http://www.pewhispanic.org/ in their slightly older poll had Obama at 69% to 21% for Romney. Over at Gallup their September 24th-October 14th 'super sample' that had Obama up 3 in Registered Voters overal had the Hispanic vote at 69-26 for Obama.

So in these three large comparable surveys Obama leads Romney by 51, 48 and 43 among Hispanics.

If we allocate 68% to Obama and 22% to Romney (the average of all three figures) just for fun then Obama leads by 46 amongst Hispanics. Exit polls in 2008 gave Obama a 36 lead. So Obama appears to be doing better this time around.

What happens therefore if we remove the small samples of Hispanic voters from the national polls and drop down the above figure? This doesn't for example tinker with likely voter screens or implied turnout. It just corrects for small errors in the data amongst Hispanic voters.

Let's have a look at the PPP poll from 18th-20th October which gave us a draw with both candidates at 48%. Obama lead Hispanics by 57-35, making up 9% of the Likely Voters in a sample of 1200 voters. So theoretically, Hispanics made up around 108 responses. Obama got 62 responses and Romney 38. If we adjust this to the figues I suggested above (which remember are based on larger samples and in the case of two reports; directly designed to gauge voting intention amongst a minority group) Obama 'gains' 11 responses and Romney 'looses' 14 responses. Doesn't seem like much. PPP rounded their figures so we have to work with 576-576. If we adjust these then Obama gets 587 and Romney 562.

That gives Obama 48.9% to 46.8%. That's 49-47 for Obama. Such a small change in the subsample but a bigger change in the headline figures.

What about the IDB/TIPP poll that gives Obama a 5.7% lead? Well they don't have figures for what % of the electorate Hispanics represent, but do give a voting breakdown 62-24. Obama's lead in that poll would be higher. What about the Politico poll today which has Romney ahead 49-47? Well they reported 44% vote for Romney amongst Hispanics (which would be the highest % vote a Republican president has ever got with Hispanics). If we re-weight that poll then we end up with an Obama lead of 49-47

Now of course small errors in the other demographic subsets could cancel out these errors. This model is simply designed to highlight potential pitfalls in measuring support in one key group

If the Hispanic vote is as decisive for Obama as Latino Decisions, Pew and even Gallup suggest, then Obama is in a stronger position that it perhaps appears. Given that white voters make up 70+% of voters, then the sample sizes are large enough to reduce potential error. What we don't have of course are wider surveys for African/American and other minority voters.

Once more, we have the same issue. Latino Decisions are giving us a 79-18 split and suggesting increased participation. We can ignore participation (as it is an unknown), but the vote figures should be important.

McClatchy/Marist poll has Clinton +15 with Latinos, yet Latino Decisions give us +61. That difference is enough to shift the results; Clinton puts on 3 points and Trump drops 2 based on the LD survey. Bloomberg's poll decoder has an average +40 spread.

Why is this important? According to Pew when it comes to Democrats/Leaners, 12% are Hispanic. Indeed non white voters are estimated to be 43% of the Democratic base in 2016, up from 39% in 2012 and 36% in 2008. In contrast, the Republican base has only shifted from 89% white to 86% white since 2000.

If 43% of the Democratic share is based on sample sizes of 200-300 voters in an average poll (ignoring LV, which guts it more) then you have to get these pretty spot on in order to get this right. Sample sizes of white voters are usually high enough to have a smaller margin of error.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:40:26 pm
49-34 among Latinos is not likely.

They have Latinos at 9% of the electorate, too.  I know, subsample MoE, but that's your problem right there.  Trump is only winning white voters by 12 points in this poll, and if that happens, Clinton wins handily.

Take the sample out and put Latino Decisions in , then Clinton goes up 3 points and Trump down 2. When over 40% of the people who vote Democratic are minority voters, you need to get those samples right in order to get an accurate vote share for the Democratic candidate.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:32:52 pm
49-34 among Latinos is not likely.

Yeah. They really need to take more care with this.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: McClatchy/Marist National Poll: Clinton +1/+2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:27:14 pm
Again, Nov 1-3.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread on: November 04, 2016, 02:56:45 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters

That's devastating in Wisconsin, and in NC too.

The upshot is estimating the early vote lead in NC is 52-43 to Clinton, so that is brutal.
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