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April 18, 2015, 02:18:41 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 17, 2015, 06:15:06 am
While you’re all waiting, I used date from the 2007 results (which I published on here last year) to estimate how Scotland would have looked at ward level in 2011. Below is the same thing…but for 1992




2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Can a mod please direct our gay porn-spamming troll to PAPOY? on: April 16, 2015, 03:05:48 pm
I only just found out about this today. I didn't get a PM, but I appear to have been the subject of one of the posts :/
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 16, 2015, 01:58:47 pm
What does everyone think of the YouGov nowcast - is it actually worth anything, or is it just a bit of fun?

They haven't revealed their methodology in full, so I can't really tell how sensible it is, but without a variety of reliable constituency polls it's hard to do a good 538 style prediction in the UK.  (They're using their own data, but they don't really have enough members in each constituency IMO.)

That said, it seems to look reasonably plausible in most places.

It does seem to be quite vulnerable to outside manipulation though. Sigh.

It's all algorithms, so it makes some assumptions about areas based on demographics and it doesn't seem to be doing anything 'better' or even different than regional polls/constituency polls are doing. Any model that doesn't tell you why it's doing what it's doing (and even old fashioned swing at least explains itself) isn't really worth anything.

It will be worth keeping an eye on when we reach the final few days at which point all models should be no longer forecasting but predicting.
4  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Opinion of this quote on: April 16, 2015, 01:35:47 pm
Maybe I just have a low bar for what constitutes 'tragedy', because there are a lot of things about life that I interpret through a tragic lens that most people just see as more standard-issue misfortune or difficulty. It was in any case not really the act of separating oneself that I was saying was 'tragic' so much as the impossibility of really restoring that rift once it's been made, especially for people who may not be the one who initially made that choice. (I recognize that this is perhaps an excessively fine distinction to make, and there isn't really any conceivable alternative to this that would be less tragic, but, again, tragic is how I see a lot of life anyway.)

Just to comment on this (even though it's a few days late; I've been entertaining my mother in law) I note you mention your desire to 'connect' or at least have some pinhole of light from an ancestral faith cast a little, even if queerness (which Catholicism doesn't and won't understand) ties you to I presume high church Episcopalianism rather than Catholicism.

What's interesting is that you say that you have an Italian-American background as a point of reference to you and presumably as a reference to Catholicism. But you aren't Italian. If that makes sense. Your family moved to America. You are part of an American story. As sloppy as BRTD's quote is (and indicative as to why American brand Christianity needs to be fed rat poison), as a result of that Catholicism is not your inheritance in the way that perhaps it would be if your family had never left. It's not against the grain to retain a family faith through generations despite moving to America, but to feel bound to reaffirm that out of a need to identify a part yourself is...interesting. It's in danger of being a facsimile.

You are not (and I know you know this) the end product of your family story. You should not feel dis-serviced by the decisions that people that came before you have made. You may have children of your own and there is no guarantee that they would have any care for what you have re-instated in your family. Nor should anyone expect their children to do as they do, yet ironically Catholicism even in it's weakest cultural state, is laced with that expectation. And of course there is no guarantee that in being queer, the Church would positively affirm whatever family you may have.

Which, harking back to trains post, confirms that in many ways it's a futile exercise.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Real Life Picture Thread (PAPOY Creepfest 2015) on: April 13, 2015, 04:33:06 pm
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 13, 2015, 05:45:51 am
Week Two Forecast
Labour 305 seats
Conservatives 282 seats
Liberal Democrats 25 seats
Other Parties 38 seats



Changes on last week
East Dunbartonshire from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Ross, Skye and Lochaber from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Falkirk from SNP to too close to call (SNP leading)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Fife North East from too close to call (SNP leading) to SNP
Brecon and Radnorshire from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Cardiff Central from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Lab leading)
Vale of Glamorgan from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr from too close to call (Plaid leading) to Plaid
Bedford from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Peterborough from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Norwich North from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Bermondsey and Old Southwark from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Croydon Central from too close to call (Lab leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
Carshalton and Wallington from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Sutton and Cheam from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Con
Hornsey and Wood Green from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Lab
High Peak from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Cannock Chase from too close to call (Con leading) to too close to call (Lab leading)
Dudley South from Con to too close to call (Con leading)
Eastleigh from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Eastbourne from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Hove from too close to call (Lab leading) to Lab
Bristol West from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Stroud from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Cheltenham from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Chippenham from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
Taunton Deane from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
North Devon from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Torbay from Lib Dem to too close to call (Lib Dem leading)
Cornwall North from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
St. Ives from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to too close to call (Con leading)
St. Austell and Newquay from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Somerton and Frome from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Wells from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Mid Dorset and Poole North from too close to call (Con leading) to Con
Berwick upon Tweed from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
Redcar from too close to call (Lib Dem leading) to Lab
Weaver Vale from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Warrington South from Lab to too close to call (Lab leading)
Cheadle from Lib Dem to too close to call (Con leading)
South Ribble from Con to too close to call (Con leading)


Once again Harry, on what are you basing your Scottish predictions?
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 11, 2015, 04:05:30 pm
Hmm...

https://twitter.com/scottishlabour/status/586921688790511616
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Ted Cruz on: April 11, 2015, 03:59:18 pm
Another American comedian you didn't know was actually Canadian.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Describe the above poster's personality and politics in... Bizarro Atlas. on: April 10, 2015, 05:23:43 pm
Tofu Queen.

Speaks for itself...
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to Denounce "Conversion Therapy" on: April 10, 2015, 03:51:41 pm
And here I'll once again point out that it does work sometimes, but more often than not it fails. The few success stories are the reasons people do them.

You always bring this up. Given that these 'success' stories often years or decades later come out and say nothing changed then I think there is reason to dismiss 'success' stories. Some people find that they are more bi than gay or straight but that's not the same as claiming same sex attraction is 'cured'.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to Denounce "Conversion Therapy" on: April 10, 2015, 11:21:05 am
Right, because the type of people who believe this crap works and is necessary are definitely going to change their minds after hearing Obama denounce it.  I predict a bounce in support for the practice!

And I'm sure the First Amendment will be cited to protect the rights of people or groups to psychologically torture children anyway.

Medical malpractice is not protected by the First Amendment. Yes, I know, you already knew that. Smiley

But they will try to use it. Which is what is so painful.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 10, 2015, 07:22:05 am

In retrospect, looking at this poll, The Daily Telegraph played a blinder. It planted a story that it likely knew would fall apart in 30 minutes but not before Scottish Labour had fallen all over themselves to share it amongst themselves. The story was not only ludicrous and out of step with not only SNP policy but public perception of policy but also happened to be Scottish Labour’s only election tactic; to say that the SNP wanted the Tories, which is why they pounced on it. Now the whole line of attack has been blunted. Tory sympathisers can say they are the ‘unionist’ party, against Labour and the SNP and attract a small but useful pool of voters

Miliband was in Edinburgh today. Labour’s new line is to talk about ‘Devo Max, raised by Nicola Sturgeon at the debates, as being too expensive. There’s a problem here. Firstly there is the perception that Devo Max was offered in ‘The Vow’ and the perception that it was reneged upon. This re-affirms that Labour were never serious about the matter. And secondly, you aren’t going to win over Labour Yes supporters who are now backing the SNP by repeating what was said at the referendum which caused them to abandon Labour in the first place.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 10, 2015, 05:52:45 am
Miliband's rating in Scotland is up from -53 to -46 and Cameron up from -36 to -25.

14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 09, 2015, 04:08:52 pm
YouGov/Times Scotland Poll:
SNP - 49% (+4%)
Lab - 25% (-3%)
Con - 18% (+2%)
Lib - 4% (+1%)

SNP surge to largest ever YouGov lead.

Unexpected actually.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 09, 2015, 05:45:18 am
Here's my forecast using the average of the polls in the first week



Conservatives 273
Labour 302
Liberal Democrats 38
Scottish Nationalists 15
Plaid Cymru 2
Greens 1
Speaker 1

I will be forecasting Northern Ireland once nominations close today

Harry, what polls are you using to forecast Scotland?
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama to Denounce "Conversion Therapy" on: April 09, 2015, 04:29:23 am
Right, because the type of people who believe this crap works and is necessary are definitely going to change their minds after hearing Obama denounce it.  I predict a bounce in support for the practice!

And I'm sure the First Amendment will be cited to protect the rights of people or groups to psychologically torture children anyway.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 08, 2015, 01:35:39 pm
If you take them all, then on average the Tory vote is only down 0.3% on 2010, with Labour up 3.6. That's a swing of less than 2%.

With the Lib Dem collapse that's more than enough to ensure Cameron needs to think about calling the movers in.

That's making an assumption that Lib Dem voters are doing the same thing in every seat. Which they aren't as two seats of the ten have swing to the Conservatives in this poll despite a similar Lib Dem collapse. That's one thing that's difficult to measure nationwide and will vary seat by seat. It's entirely possible that with numbers like this as in 1987 and 1992, the Conservatives may snatch a few seats from Labour, lessening the damage.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 08, 2015, 01:09:28 pm
If you take them all, then on average the Tory vote is only down 0.3% on 2010, with Labour up 3.6. That's a swing of less than 2%.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 07, 2015, 12:53:21 pm
So today's battleground is Europe. And Labour brought it up. Strange times.
20  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: will the Roman Catholic Church 'accept LGBT' on/before August 15, 2067? on: April 07, 2015, 12:20:46 pm
They will move towards a kindler, gentler dehumanisation. And then just as suddenly as they started talking about homosexuals back in the 80's (thanks Josef) they will stop.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will be the "big" Social Issues in 2050? on: April 05, 2015, 12:37:32 pm
Probably matters of human transplants/augmentation will be an issue. It might, just might be possible to transplant, or be working towards the transplant of the human brain/nervous system into other bodies which could not only assist the disabled but potentially extend life. There will be some ethical concerns over that, possibly religious concerns too due to arguments over perpetuating life, the soul etc.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is Snowguy okay? on: April 04, 2015, 06:20:40 pm
I did question his erratic and borderline conspiratorial behaviour with some people before but wasn't taken seriously. It's important to actually realise when people aren't themselves and ensure that we can provide whatever limited help and assistance we can.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 04, 2015, 06:03:13 pm
Panelbase have polled Scotland again. Don't have the full figures as they come from a scanned copy of their front page Tongue

SNP 45% (+4)
Labour 29% (-2)
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 04, 2015, 09:43:11 am

There are better commentators than Damian McBride. Like my cat for instance...
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread) on: April 04, 2015, 07:11:00 am
What is the Torygraph playing at exactly? What's the goal they're aiming for?

To discredit Labour and or undermine any cooperation with the SNP. Scottish Labour jumped on it too quickly then backtracked. At least until this morning when Ed, having apparently not been briefed, jumped in to accuse Sturgeon so now Labour have had to run with it again. It was a spiked story in that it wasn't one but may end up shoring up the SNP at Labour's expense.
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