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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: Today at 06:54:11 am
I think the referendum will happen, as the Tories I think are likely to 'win' the next General Election. However I don't think the public will vote to exit. Once 'Europe' is personified during the campaign as cheap foreign flights and employment rights, rather than Romanians and bendy vegetables, people will be reluctant to vote to exit.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 30, 2014, 05:35:51 pm
All these numbers are also assuming that Sturgeon isn't a flop as FM.

They are also assuming she won't get hit by a bus tomorrow.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 30, 2014, 05:16:12 pm
YouGov out with their own poll

SNP 43
LAB 27
CON 15
LIB 4

How much do you trust?
 
Nicola Sturgeon: 48%
Gordon Brown: 37%
Jim Murphy: 24%
David Cameron: 19%
Ed Miliband: 15%
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election - To be announced on December 13 on: October 30, 2014, 04:01:44 pm
Anas Sarwar, the Deputy leader has resigned during a fundraising dinner.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 30, 2014, 03:56:47 pm
It's worth noting this is one poll.

The reason why it's being taken seriously, is that this sort of movement was suggested in the aggregate results of the Scottish samples in the rolling YouGov and Populus polls.

At the beginning of this week, the YouGov aggregate had the SNP on 41, Labour on 26, Conservatives 17, Lib Dems 5. Populus was more modest at 37-28-19-9.

Even with Populus that still reduces Labour to 19 seats, in the same parts of the country where they won those seats in 2011, and the SNP on 35 seats.

Expect to see some more Scottish only polling.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 30, 2014, 01:27:08 pm
The SNP as the kingmakers in a hung parliament.

Imagine.

Given that the SNP would not support a Tory led government in almost any circumstances (for fear of being as unpopular as the Lib Dems currently are as well as for general ideological issues) what concessions would they want in return for supporting and sustaining a Labour government?

Well, the SNP were propped up by the Tories at Holywood, soooo...

But if they were kingmakers, I imagine they'd basically get whatever they want.

Control of everything but defence and foreign affairs. And a general commitment to something similar for other parts of the UK (but that's for other parties to worry about)

If the SNP are kingmakers and want a constitutional settlement for Scotland and for other parts of the UK, if either main party said 'no', couldn't get a Queen's Speech or budget passed and called a GE then Scotland would probably vote SNP even more the second time.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 30, 2014, 12:38:39 pm
Scottish polling won't be any use until certain things are clearer, but... eep.

If Jim Murphy gets the leadership role Labour will become a grand right of centre experiment. That might not make things clearer!
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: October 29, 2014, 10:38:57 am
One of the great difficulties is predicting what seats might swing towards UKIP and at what point UKIP might Ďtake off;í in terms of seats. What I have decided to do is look at the 2014 European Election results and Ďswingí them back towards what the current polls suggest nationally. Adjustments are made for regional party strengths based on the 2010 results. While this gives an idea of results by council, itís easy to use these to look at what would happen in the constituencies. It also gives an idea of where the Lib Dem vote is going and what effect UKIP are having on Labour/Tory vote shares

The Ďestimatesí are based on the current UKPR average of 32-34-8-16. Iíve picked two promising regions; Easter and East Midlands. Iíll try and work out a crude model later.

Eastern

Itís easier here to identify what areas arenít Conservative. The Liberal Democrats do not win a single council, nor seat on these calculations. The Tories come top in North Norfolk and Colchester. That would be 2 seat gains. As for Labour areas, they win Cambridge from the Lib Dems, Harlow, Ipswich, Luton, Norwich (perhaps enough to win both seats there), Stevenage, Thurrock and Watford. That would be five or six gains from the Conservatives and two gains from the Liberal Democrats. So Labour would be up 7 or 8 seats and the Conservatives down 3 or 4 seats. UKIP donít win anywhere, however there are areas of strong UKIP support that remain linked to a 16% national vote share. They sit second in Basildon, ahead of Labour and are about 7% behind the Tories in Castle Point. Great Yarmouth is a three way tussle and UKIP are 2nd in Thurrock, just 4% behind Labour.

What would happen in Eastern on the basis of the 30-30-9-19 poll? Well here UKIP would leapfrog Labour into second place on vote share. It would nudge them into first place in Basildon, making a gain there possible. They would also lead in Castle Point and in Thurrock, knocking the Conservatives into third. They would also win Great Yarmouth. UKIP would bite into Labourís 1997 high watermark coastal seats. Labourís Ďgainsí would remain as they were (except perhaps Norwich North) UKIPís vote would have to break into the low to mid 20ís to start picking up other seats.

East Midlands

Labour top in Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, Broxtowe (the seat of which would be a Labour gain), Chesterfield, Corby (Labour would gain the seat) Derby City, Gedling, High Peak (a Labour gain), Leicester City, Lincoln City (by enough to gain them the seat of Lincoln), Mansfield, North East Derbyshire, and Nottingham City. Erewash is evens between Labour and the Tories (which seat wise would translate into a Tory hold) That would translate into 4 modest seat gains by Labour from Conservative. The Lib Dems top nowhere (and hold no seats at present anywhere)

UKIP also do not factor. This is worth a look. They are a few % points behind the Tories in Boston but outside of that council area (the Boston and Skegness seat is larger) they are further behind in other parts of Lincolnshire. So while it is definitely a target seat, thereís not much to suggest they will challenge elsewhere.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election - To be announced on December 13 on: October 28, 2014, 02:15:37 pm
Sarah Boyack (list MSP for the Lothians, formerly MSP for Edinburgh Central) has announced that she intends to run.

Quite an interesting development. One of the remnants of Dewar's original team she was the only constituency MSP for Labour allowed to stand on the list prior to the rule change which ultimately saved her. The chorus 'oh get Jim Murphy' is almost entirely from outside of the MSP Labour group (who generally can't stand him) and while Boyack is no left winger per say, she's a safe pair of hands and by no means a careerist.
10  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Opinion of Family International on: October 27, 2014, 05:48:36 pm
Not my batInks crazy belief system, so it must be a cult Roll Eyes

I know you intend this post to be primarily an insult against other posters' beliefs, but instead it comes across as primarily a defense of TFI. Just so you know.

Bit of a generic broadside against 'sacred marriage/prostitution' rituals of various faiths throughout history is it not? All hokum to me and this TFI nonsense must win a prize for it, but it's not a concept that can be so easily dismissed.
11  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Is Homosexuality a sin? on: October 27, 2014, 05:35:03 pm
If one is going to argue the impossibility of sexual orientation being a sin, one needs a better argument than mere logic.  Logic is silent on this topic.

No it isn't. Logical is very vocal here. You have a god that allows evolution to run rampant in which a small but continuing minority of animals attempt to copulate with the same sex. The greater the degree of bonding in an animal group, the greater the instance of same sex bonding all the way up the chain to us. And that steady percentage persists generation after generation; a group of individuals who are completed emotionally, regardless of sexually, by bonding with the same sex. And after millions of years and countless human generations later God releases his one and only 'Greatest Hits' and says that it's wrong. It is punishable by death. This is later downgraded by several hundred years of Christian handwringing to 'okay we won't kill you because Jesus, but it's not right'. Later, for some, there's a tacit admission that sexuality is inherent and unchangable but don't have sex. In fact don't even form a couple, because that has sexual connotations. Live alone, love Jesus and stay celibate. Celibacy is masked as some sort of 'calling', when actually it's a demand. There is no choice in the matter; there is not one single way in which coupling or sexual intimacy with a person of the same sex is acceptable. Even though that's how you were born. Even if it means being alone, all the way till you die alone in your bed having never experienced love, in Jesus' loving embrace.

Logically, that's f-cked up. Logically, that's not love. Because he gives heterosexuals a choice; it could be a very constrained anti-sex choice but he gives them one. You can feel, and love and be loved and be intimate but only if you marry. To homosexuals he offers no choice, at all. Period. Despite there sexuality being 'gifted' by him.

12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election - To be announced on December 13 on: October 27, 2014, 07:16:01 am
Let's be blunt.

Whoever becomes Labour leader will, more than likely, lose in 2016. So it's an 18 month post at most...unless Labour accept that 2016 will not see them back in power in Scotland and therefore don't pressure their leader to stand down in the event of a defeat. That does however mean waiting till 2020. If not, then if Skeletor wishes to run, then that means bailing from East Renfrewshire in 2015 and hoping to be elected at Holyrood the next year (probably in Hugh Henry's old seat) only to sit there like a dead duck.

The only sensible choice, if Labour want to start rebuilding is to elect someone like Elaine Murray or Jenny Marra and in time for the 2016 election, parachute in competent candidates to run who can then take over in 2016.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: District Judge Upholds Puerto Rico gay marriage ban on: October 27, 2014, 06:49:39 am
When will the federal government respect the will of the states and the people regarding this issue regardless of laws allowing it or banning it?  All the bans recently overturned (this includes California, Indiana, Utah etc ). What I'm saying is if a state bans it don't interfere. If a state allows it don't interfere. 

If a state wished to ban people practicing Christianity. Do you think that should be allowed and that federal government and the judiciary should not interfere?
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Jack Bruce (Cream bassist/singer) dead at 71 on: October 26, 2014, 04:08:12 pm
A great loss.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King: "I donít expect to meet [gays] should I make it to heaven." on: October 26, 2014, 01:52:26 pm
Gays are just the single people who are tired of being discriminated against. The rest of the single world has been taught that there is something wrong with them, and they generally accept the socio-economic punishment handed down by the government.

Given that it's gay couples who wish to get married, how on earth using any reasoning, can you categorise gay couples as 'single people'?

16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2014 General Election - President and Regional Senators on: October 26, 2014, 10:01:55 am



PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT


[ 1 ] Al Sibboleth of West Virginia and Hashemite of Oklahoma
All Atlasia Progressive Rashtriya Janata Dal - Verenigde Gesuiwerde Atlasianer Volksfront



[  ] Lumine von Reuental of Utah and SJoyceFla of North Carolina
Federalist Party - The People's Party



[2 ] Marokai Blue of Iowa and Antonio V of Hawaii
Labor Party



[  ] Poirot of New York and Shua of Nunavut
Independent - Democratic-Republican Party



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above



NORTHEAST SENATE


[ 1 ] Bore of Rhode Island
Labor Party



[  ] Lief of Vermont
Vermont National Party



[  ] Matt from VT of Vermont
The People's Party



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King: "I donít expect to meet [gays] should I make it to heaven." on: October 26, 2014, 09:56:25 am
If I find myself in hell for being myself then at least my husband will be there. Spending an eternity without him would be a real hell.
If there be a Hell where people are kept eternally, I rather doubt they'll have the choice of who to spend it with.  Actually, if for whatever reason you do end up in Hell, I think you'd be much likelier to be bunking with Congressman King than with your husband.

Doesn't matter. At least I'd be on the same 'plane'. If I were in heaven and he in hell, what heaven would that be for me?
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 26, 2014, 08:07:58 am
I actually think that, over the course of the last month, Ed has become damaged goods.

The narrative even within the party seems to have gone from 'He means well and could surprise people' to 'When's his next misstep due?'.

The irony in the events of the last month seems to be that Heywood has scared the PLP so much that it's damaged Ed more than Clacton's damaged Cameron. There's a lot in saying that the Tories expected to lose Clacton.

There's a bit of fear that 2010 wasn't Labour's floor. That it could sink further below what it got. The polls themselves don't show a great deal of CON to LAB switchers. There's an over-reliance on Lib Dem 2010 voters leaking back to Labour where it counts and an over expectation that UKIP won't damage them. What you could find is that in traditionally suburban seats like Bolton West that Labour hold by a gnats wing, the Lib Dem voters who have stayed with them from 1997, could leak disproportionately back to the Conservatives, gifting them the seat from Labour. There is also a problem in Scotland, which while it may be fleeting, currently shows Labour performing as badly (and the SNP performing as well) at Westminster as they are at Holyrood, with voting intentions at 2011 levels. While Labour are maxed out in Scotland, they can't really afford to fall back.
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Modern Humans Interbred with Neanderthals According to 45,000 Year-Old Genome on: October 25, 2014, 09:51:28 am
And that, children, is how Norfolk was populated.

Nonsense. That would mean they had to breed outside the family line...
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Another School Shooting north of Seattle on: October 25, 2014, 07:07:43 am
We should petition for Dave to create a sub-board in USGD for these threads.

That creates a higher risk of copyright infringement. It'll be the same story posted over and over again.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Steve King: "I donít expect to meet [gays] should I make it to heaven." on: October 25, 2014, 07:02:39 am
If I find myself in hell for being myself then at least my husband will be there. Spending an eternity without him would be a real hell.
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 25, 2014, 05:38:08 am
This doesn't really feel like a surprise.

Without recent events she'd have stayed only for the fact that since the 2011 cull there is no one left.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 24, 2014, 03:54:15 pm
Johann Lamont is to stand down as Labour leader in Scotland.
24  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Opinion of Family International on: October 24, 2014, 01:34:15 pm
On their knees for Jesus. Until he comes.
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 23, 2014, 04:28:19 pm
Here's a handy guide who what party wants what out of the Lord Smith Commission on further Scottish devolution:

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