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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Latino Decisions Battleground Poll (July 18-22) on: July 27, 2016, 02:57:33 pm
That lead isn't as large as the other polls have shown, but it was taken during the RNC, and if Hillary does win by that much, it'll probably be enough for her to win.

Except you have no numbers regarding turnout among Hispanics (esp. compared to non-Hispanic whites).

Even if turnout remains the same, there are more of them from the voting pool compared to four years ago.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump's comments about Russia hurt him? on: July 27, 2016, 01:59:39 pm
No. A swathe of white America are miserable and want that misery to spread to everyone else. Trump could give Putin the nuclear codes and they would cheer.
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict Clinton's convention bounce, based on Tuesday night on: July 27, 2016, 03:00:10 am
I think the polls will move back to how they were in early July. The gap between Hillary and Trump will be the same but there will be far fewer undecideds.
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 26, 2016, 05:58:06 pm
lol there aren't any black lives in Wyoming

C#NT.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 26, 2016, 05:36:05 pm
SPEAK ENGLISH

YOU CAN'T Cheesy
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 26, 2016, 04:49:16 pm
'I'm Idaho!'
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 26, 2016, 04:42:11 pm
It's no Eurovision.
83  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Your most unusual personal goal in life on: July 26, 2016, 02:13:09 pm
Wanting you all to kneel and tremble before me, for I am you king. Obviously.
LOL! Cheesy You want us to tremble before you even though you cannot spell "your" correctly! Wink

(Notes in book) First. Against.The Wall.
84  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Your most unusual personal goal in life on: July 26, 2016, 12:24:50 pm
Wanting you all to kneel and tremble before me, for I am you king. Obviously.
85  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Things Clinton Democrats don't seem to get on: July 26, 2016, 12:22:49 pm
The only reason the Democrats look like a "minority issues party" is because the Republicans have turned into the party of seething white male outrage.

Yes, it's totally the GOP's fault that the Dems are running into the arms of BLM, SJW insanity, amnesty, increased Islamic immigration, and radical Islamic apologism. Roll Eyes

The first isn't happening. The second isn't happening (as Hillary and not Bernie won), the third 'amnesty', well I thought compassion and amnesty; ensuring that people can breathe the air in the town they live in without fearing someone will find them, categorise them and take them away was one of those stubborn traits I had hanging over from my 25 years as a Catholic (but you probably know more about this than me; must have missed it the multiple choice quiz you get before someone shoves a wafer in your mouth), the fourth there is no statistical evidence for, certainly not to the US as either a raw number or a % of immigration to the USA and the last is entirely contrary to I don't know, every single pronouncement made by the sitting President and the former Secretary of State who wants to be president.

Other than that i cant criticise the Roll Eyes. It's just an emoticon.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie gets booed by hundreds of protesters for several minutes on: July 26, 2016, 12:14:23 pm
So which is worse: Donald Trump being allowed to win his party's nomination, or Bernie Sanders NOT being allowed to do the same?

Maybe the few million more votes cast for her by the voters. Not the 'machine' or the 'system' but the voters. I think winning the nomination that way is pretty neat Cheesy
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 26, 2016, 10:21:02 am
I'm not sure if some Sanders delegates realize that this isn't a contested convention, so they might throw a fit if that happens. As we saw during the primaries, many of them were not well versed on the rules.

Or maths. Or black people.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Surprise Democratic States on: July 26, 2016, 03:48:21 am
Texas by a few thousand votes and a higher than expected Johnson vote? I'd go with that.
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 05:11:25 pm
Not condoning the heckling, btw.  I think Cumming's speech was excellent.

It's all they bring to the table. Trump's useful idiots.
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 05:00:54 pm
Someone's going to tell these hecklers to STFU in the middle of their speech and I'm going to laugh.

It will be Bernie.
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 04:55:20 pm
anyways, to the people complaining about the ~horrible bernie-bros~ (Cry) ― that's what happens when you spend the entire primary season shˇtting on both sanders and his supporters ㄟ(ツ)ㄏ

Yes. Clinton supporters should stop playing saints, or abandon their entitlement mentality (zomgz how they dared oppose The Hillary?). I supported Sanders during primary, now I'm hoping for Clinton victory, but, God, some of your attitudes are making me sick. So yeah, continue to push them away, but don't complain later.
Why not push the people in this crowd away.  They are never going to vote for us.  They are nihilist assholes who want to burn down the system.  Nothing more.

5-10% of Sanders voters are like that, but the vast majority are ready to play with the team. Please see some distinction. Those are ones the party will need in November and in the future. They are not f**king enemies here.
And we do, read the posts.  Only calling out the booing members.

OK, but I see too much generalization booing jerks = Sanders voters in this thread.

Who might they be then?
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton's Image at Lowest Point in Two Decades on: July 25, 2016, 04:33:42 pm
People project all their own sh-t onto that woman. Her likability is probably linked to the national conscious.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie gets booed by hundreds of protesters for several minutes on: July 25, 2016, 01:50:44 pm
Crush the 'progressive' movement within the Democrats. Crush it, burn it, and salt the ground.
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Things Clinton Democrats don't seem to get on: July 25, 2016, 01:05:08 pm
We're about to see a crpto-fascist Putin stooge who will divide this country on race and will divide the Western alliance, and probably be horrible as president

That will be because of (some of) the white working class voting for him. And it's a conscious choice; people know what they are doing and know what they are thinking. And you have to accept the implications of that.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016 on: July 25, 2016, 11:48:50 am
The only way to absolutely guarantee defeat is to assume that it's going to happen.

Are assume that you're winning... (see 2015)
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: July 25, 2016, 11:33:42 am
Serious question - why does the Nowcast do a trendline? That doesn't make sense to me. If Clinton leads in Nevada now (as she does per their poll model) why would the Nowcast not predict her as ahead?

I've wondered that too. I also think he's launched his model too soon. There has been a relative drought in state polls in comparison to recent years. There's a poll from November in his model for Nevada. That shouldn't be there at this stage.
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% on: July 25, 2016, 10:01:55 am
Off topic, can we dispense with the idea that being 'poor' automatically makes you the salt of the earth or somehow how absolves you from being an asshole with assholish opinions just because you're poor and 'don't know any better'. It's patronising.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% on: July 25, 2016, 08:40:35 am
I will say, given the demographic breakdown among whites (grads vs no college) the Latino Decisions poll and what we expect from African-Americans, Hillary should be comfortably ahead in the electoral college. I just don't know how this poll was weighted.

The fact there are no numbers fro young people says they undersampled young people.

If we look at Trump v Clinton directly Trump has 62% of the white vote. Romney got 60%. Clinton gets 76% of the non white vote. Obama also got 76%. If turnout is the same as 2012 then it's 51-49 Hillary. If we look at white college grads Clinton is at 52 when Obama got 44. On non grads it's Trump on 69 while Romney got 62. Numbers like that lock Clinton into the Obama 08/12 states (FL VA CO etc) but perhaps give Trump a shot at OH PA.  The internals don't really point to a different picture than what we've seen all summer.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% on: July 25, 2016, 05:56:39 am
Among Dems and Dem-leaning Indies who prefer Sanders for the nomination, here’s their GE support in the 4-way:

Clinton 64%
Johnson 14%
Trump 11%
Stein 6%

Among Republicans and Republican-leaning Indies who would have preferred someone besides Trump had won the nomination, here’s their GE support in the 4-way:

Trump 66%
Johnson 17%
Clinton 10%
Stein 4%


In other news, big education gap….

white college grads:
Clinton 44%
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 4%

white non-college grads:
Trump 61%
Clinton 23%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

Regional breakdown…..

Midwest:
Trump 46%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 9%
Stein 2%

Northeast:
Clinton 49%
Trump 33%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

South:
Trump 49%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

West:
Trump 43%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 11%
Stein 3%

And Johnson still drawing most of his support from youths.  He’s at 17% among voters under 45, but only 4% among voters over 65.


Clinton again leading with white college graduates. That keeps popping up.
100  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Multiple shootings at Florida nightclub. Yes, another one. on: July 25, 2016, 05:41:28 am
#Prayforinserthere.

Next.

Sad
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