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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 18, 2014, 02:33:29 pm
Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

Have they?  I can't see anything of the sort on https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI (I can find other people on Twitter claiming that they have said this, but no links to the actual statement or anything, which makes me suspicious).

I'm not on twitter so I can't say. If it's bad second hand info then apologies.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 18, 2014, 02:21:55 pm
Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.

Wasn't the assumption that it almost certainly would do so?

It's never been known and nor has it became any clearer in the last few weeks of the campaign (as these things usually do). If turnout is high, and is relatively high regardless of where you are, even with traditionally higher turnouts in certain parts of the country, the difference could be less than usual, so not only would your national turnout be wrong, but your subnational turnout levels could be askew too.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 18, 2014, 02:14:22 pm
Interesting note that IPSOS-MORI have tweeted that if turnout actually breaches 80% then their polls probably won't be valid.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 18, 2014, 01:52:04 pm
Voted. Had to wait in a line. Never had to do that in the past twelve years.
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 18, 2014, 05:52:18 am
Scottish people is fine. The Scots is fine. Scotch is a no no.

I have been sceptical about this, but this gives it a lot more weight. And its a big chunk of the Scottish oil (60% if I remember correctly), thats within Shetland waters.

The Orcadians and Zetlanders may vote no to independence. That is not the same as a 'no' to Scotland or a 'yes' to the UK. It's politically cheeky to infer such things.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 17, 2014, 01:33:57 pm
Is there any worry about potential "bad behavior" from some nationalists if the vote fails?

Only by those that think we are guilty of bad behaviour. And by bad i mean; heckling and egg throwing.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 17, 2014, 12:38:01 pm
It's amazing how every poll shows such a narrow No lead. You'd expect MoE would have a fluke Yes lead or No at 55 or something.

I found that a bit weird too. 4/5 polls this week have shown the exact same result, 52-48, while the fifth had 51-49. Particularly considering that the polls used to diverge a lot for this election.



They have converged. This campaign isn't like a 50/50 campaign because it hasn't been 50/50 since day one. Yes were behind. So you've only started to see occasional Yes leads/drawing equal as it's narrowed in the past few weeks.
83  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 17, 2014, 08:48:43 am
In the three polls last night, the undecided voters are split by 57,60,62 to Yes. The split in 1979 was 60:40 to Yes but in 1997 it was 83:17 to Yes.
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 16, 2014, 09:33:52 am
The BBC has just kind of abandoned the idea of neutrality, apparently, at least based on their reporting of the story.

They did that a few years ago;

https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/john-robertson/bbc-bias-and-scots-referendum-new-report
85  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 16, 2014, 06:11:48 am
The most important question that we, the Atlas Forum, should be asking is... What kind of detail of results maps can we expect to see?  By Westminster/Holyrood constituency?  By council ward??  Cheesy

By council and probably (if councils make the data available) by constituency. It should be possible using the polling data and adjusting it to the result and then applying that across each council to 'guesstimate' how wards would have voted. Which I will probably do.
86  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 16, 2014, 06:09:38 am
That said, I could support a requirement that YES wins, say, at least 45% of all registered voters - so as to make sure that independence is won through voter apathy.

In the 1979 referendum, it was required that 40% of all registered voters had to vote Yes. Which meant, technically, that if you weren't voting at all you were voting No, or if you had died in the weeks and months prior to the vote without the register being updated your vote was also technically a 'no' (despite you being dead) While the Assembly passed, it didn't get over 40% of the electorate so was shelved.

Which is why registration based thresholds are a generally bad idea!
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 15, 2014, 05:54:26 am
Scotland goes through periods of political dominance; the Liberals from 1832 to the 20's. the Unionists from the 20's to the 50's and Labour from the 50's to the 2000's. Westminster aside, the SNP is already the 'party of government'; it's won every national election bar the 2010 GE since 2007
88  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: 2014 Selfie Creepfest/Post a picture of yourself thread on: September 14, 2014, 04:43:24 pm
Moi, looking more ancient than ever, with partner Dan, music composer Tim Hecker (BRTD would just love his music - very sensual, and you can feel the vibrations hitting your body in a very physical way), and artist neighbor Marc Scrivo, at home in Hudson.



You and Dan are adorable together.  He seems like a sweetie... what a great smile! Grin

Thanks. I am incredibly lucky that Dan came into my life, no doubt about it. Smiley

Cheesy
89  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Scottish independence - The Official Atlas Forum mock referendum on: September 14, 2014, 02:59:04 pm
I'd rather have all of the UK under a Labour government than it minus Scotland under a Tory government and Scotland under some yucky nationalist government.

What's yucky about the SNP? I'd like to actually know your well thought out reasons on this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdelbaset_al-Megrahi

So releasing a felon with  terminal prostate cancer is your reason to hate the SNP?

That and that I oppose all nationalist parties on principle. After all "nationalist parties" is a category wide enough it also includes Golden Dawn.


Given that Christianity is a category 'wide enough' that it includes the Lord's Resistance Army then by that reasoning, you must hate yourself on principle.
90  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Scottish independence - The Official Atlas Forum mock referendum on: September 14, 2014, 02:40:14 pm
I'd rather have all of the UK under a Labour government than it minus Scotland under a Tory government and Scotland under some yucky nationalist government.

What's yucky about the SNP? I'd like to actually know your well thought out reasons on this.
91  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Doctor Who - Series 8 on: September 13, 2014, 03:45:28 pm
It was a very well crafted episode. For me that's four very good episodes in a row now.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 13, 2014, 03:34:30 pm
So after the polls of just the last couple of days alone we can all happily pick our own realities. Isn't that fun.

It's a big unknown. Pollsters might not get it right and they will never need to get it right again.

On that note its 50-49 No (not sure where that missing 1% goes) with Panelbase.

50.6 to 49.4
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 13, 2014, 02:09:50 pm
ICM

Yes 54
No 46

Opinium

No 53
Yes 47
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 13, 2014, 11:07:57 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etKV3uZ-CeE

I'm somewhere at the far right 14 seconds in Smiley
95  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Forum LGBT Census 2014 on: September 13, 2014, 10:57:26 am
We're allowed to post sarcastic nonsense jokes on the forum and it's never been an issue. As far as I can see I have not violated anything.


You knew what you were doing. Given the fact you haven't deleted them, which you had ample chance to do as they were clogging up the topic, they have now been moderated.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 13, 2014, 09:07:42 am

Jim Sillars isn't a member of the SNP
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary down to a 43% approval rating on: September 12, 2014, 03:47:08 pm
She's not visible. So what do you expect?
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 12, 2014, 01:51:12 pm
*There are also certain - currently entirely theoretical - complications regarding the Act of Union, but those are best left undisturbed for now...

To be fair so little of the Act of Union remains unamended or unappealed it's pretty much like the ship of Theseus at this point.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 12, 2014, 09:20:34 am
On the other hand, if they really did want to remain as part of the UK, it would be pretty hard for Shetland and Orkney at least, to be denied that.

Ironically, at least it would guarantee an open border policy and a reciprocal relaxation in trade. Supplying Lerwick directly from Newcastle-Upon-Tyne would be a logistical nightmare.
100  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ian Paisley, 1926-2014 on: September 12, 2014, 07:48:19 am
The polite thing for me to do is say nothing at all.
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