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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 07, 2014, 03:27:42 pm
It also helped, that the Scottish Stuarts had ruled Britain one century long before 1704 (as the Welsh were proud of "their" Tudors). And Scotland was incredibly poor 300 years ago, immediately benefitting economically from the union. And that in the era of "the divine David [HUME]" England was intellectually a colony of his northern neighbours.

I don't think you can say that the Stuarts were especially 'popular' in Scotland; indeed, during the reign of Charles I in particular, they were (or he was) very unpopular (mind you, he alienated just about everybody in the Three Kingdoms, but nevermind...). Even the Scottish support that they received during the Jacobite uprisings (which did form the mainstay of them to be fair) was limited geographically (largely in the areas of Scotland where Catholicism was still predominant). Indeed, during the Rising of 1745, large numbers of Scottish troops fought against the Jacobites.

Regardless of Stewart un-popularity, much of that became a moot point when the Commonwealth took the step of beheading Charles I without any discussion with Scotland of which he was also king. Again in 1701, the Act of Succession passed by the English Parlimant settled on whom should succeed Queen Anne, the eventual last Stewart monarch without consulting Scotland. We passed the Act of Security in response which was met by the Alien Act which threatened Scotland with restricted movement of people and trade unless we made steps towards a formal Act of Union. And so it was.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 07, 2014, 02:59:55 pm
For fun here are the polls for the 1997 Devolution Referendum

Yes/No/DK

19 Jun 72-22-6
22 Aug 72-22-6
7 Sep 60-25-15
10 Sep 63-25-12
11 Sep (Actual) 74.2-25.7

On tax varying powers it passed 63.5 to 36.5. The last poll had it 48-40-12
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 07, 2014, 02:38:13 pm
This led to a crisis of confidence in the Union that has never really abated; devolution has not sated this - as was hoped by the Blair government - but probably made matters a good deal more civilised; Scotland and the rest of Britain have at least been spared the 1918 General Election in Ireland scenario.

There's a crisis in Scottish party politics too. When Scottish Unionist dominance gave way to that of the Labour Party (not that Labour have actually expanded or at least until 2011, contracted in the geographical areas where it has been strong since the 30's) it was actually fairly seamless because strictly speaking there wasn't much between them. It was certainly less of a shock, though it's often forgotten, than the decline of the Liberals.

The problem today is a difficulity in determining what 'British' means in a political context. Labour were the party of devolution only in the sense they delivered it. Once they delivered it, there was a reluctance to do anything with it, even in comparison to the party in Wales under similar but more restrictive circumstances. Anything remotely 'radical' from 1999-2007 was thanks to the Liberal Democrats. The first sense something was wrong was the rise of the SSP even though it was a short lived experiment in vanity.

Now we have the SNP. On paper, they should be very easy to take down. They lack any coherent ideology or even consistency. You have the entire Scottish press at their necks to the extent the only cordial relationship they can manage is with the Scottish editions of the London press.

What the SNP does today, is provide a safety net for the Scottish electorate which allows them to wait for the inevitable sh-tstorm to kick off in the closing weeks and like fireworks going off at the factory, let their opposition burn out leaving the SNP blemish free. In the last days of the 2007 and 2011 campaigns Alex Salmond did something no other politician does; he dissappears. It's happening again, since the second debate some two weeks ago you've hardly seen a peep out of him. It gives his opponents the airtime and even sycophantic press after a while get bored of the narrative. So divisions are highlighted and so on. The close of the last two Scottish campaigns have seen politicians hang themselves by the rope he's left. It's possible it might be happening again.
79  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 07, 2014, 11:42:18 am
There are some of my favourite Daily Mail headlines from today.

'Alex Salmond's secretive Saltire-smuggling First Lady (...who is 17 years his senior)' (not mentioned, Alex being 'really fat')

'Why a divorce from Scotland could be the ruin of us all: Mortgages up. Pensions down. The pound in your pocket worth 90p - and you'll even pay more for water' (but how will it affect house prices?)

and my favourite;

'Revealed: The German residents who will vote 'Ja' to Scottish independence (including one Herr Mittler)'

So when is the 'love bomb' happening?
80  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 06, 2014, 04:38:25 pm
Cameron is flying north to Balmoral for talks with the Queen. Miliband ever the opportunist who love bombed my home town last week has given an interview with the Mail saying he might station guards at the border in the event of independence.
81  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 06, 2014, 03:36:52 pm
Yougov have Yes leading by 1.
82  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 05, 2014, 04:14:33 pm
Any chance of polling firms messing with their adjustments just to show a Yes lead just so that their client sells more paper ?

Every polling firm is messing with their adjustments with each new poll. That's what happens when the picture becomes clearing in the final few weeks of an election...or less clear.
83  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Scottish Independence referendum, 2014 on: September 05, 2014, 01:25:16 pm
Obviously I am for it.

I didn't used to be. I think there is something childlike in loving the country you are born in, just because you happen to be born there. I think any nation; and by nation I mean peoples, politics, ways of doing things etc has to prove itself to you as being worthy of merit to a person. There was a time in my life when Scotland was a very intricate and baffling nation. Had Scotland pursued independence or even devolution earlier in the 20th century it would have became a presbyterian, inward looking, conservative backwater. Even as late as 1999, it wasn't clear what sort of nation Scotland would become with a parliament. Before the parliament all we had was a grievance and it wasn't a productive one. It was certainly a very uncomfortable place to grow up in, especially in the west of Scotland where competing forms of Irish national expression, whether republican or unionist seemed to be more important in defining a community than any sense of being Scottish or not defining yourself by your religious community. It was a very powerful and often exploited division that was very helpful in distracting the working classes from genuine social problems. As late as 2001, Scotland had a horrible experience involving Section 28 which tested the parliament. When Donald Dewar died, we felt something had been lost.

But Scotland has positioned itself and moved at such speed towards an open, outward looking and liberal society that has surpised even me. For many Scots looking for work or escaping the green and blue tinted bigotry or seeking the freedom of sexual expression meant heading south, to England, to London to make a home and name for yourself. That isn't the case today. There is a feeling that Scotland's priorities are not those of our neighbours, that's Scotland's ethos is new and is distinctivly Scottish. Modern Scotland is what Scotland is about. Modern Scotland is what has driven this desire for independence more so than traditional nationalism.

Britain just doesn't represent me anymore. It doesn't matter who is in power; its much deeper and wider than politics.



84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 05, 2014, 02:38:35 am
It's Panelbase. Yougov polled at the same time and that's out at the weekend. Panelbase is probably being held back to be released the same day to either compliment or challenge Yougov depending on that result.

Miliband dropped by my home turf yesterday.
85  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: do you remember gasoline with lead? on: September 05, 2014, 02:27:09 am
Thanks to leaded petrol I remember nothing...
86  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How would you like to be buried? on: September 04, 2014, 05:19:49 pm
Composted. Food for the worms and the trees.
87  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: RIP Joan Rivers on: September 04, 2014, 03:12:29 pm
Yes, in the last few years she was a little tired but before Joan Rivers, women on television may have been allowed to be funny, but never to be controversial, rude or, heaven forbid, opinionated. RIP.
88  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austria as a German state (Federal & State election results) on: September 04, 2014, 01:38:31 pm
I would imagine there could potentially be room for an 'Austrian' party/ies in such a scenario.
89  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 04, 2014, 12:55:14 pm
I think YouGov changed some of their polling method or something (could be wrong), but this sort of polling volatility isn't really that unusual for an electoral event in Britain. Campaign events often leads to significant poll shifts, though they aren't always 'real' (c.f. all of the various Liberal surges since 1974).

YouGov changed it's methodology I think two or three polls ago. It wasn't polling 17 year olds and was not applying a weighting for people not born in Scotland.

It's impossible to tell whether the debate or any other campaign event has had any impact on the polls. They were narrowing prior to Debate 1. There were six polls post debate with the last three showing movement towards Yes after the immediate impact of the debate. Since Debate 2 there has only been two polls with some movement towards yet. So we can't really say anything yet; it might just be a gradual movement.
90  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: September 04, 2014, 06:27:20 am
Curious that Clacton has been more heavily polled than Scotland over the past week.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Homely's UK Maps Thread on: September 02, 2014, 06:14:50 am
Unfortunately in this instance there are very good reasons to suspect geographically significant differences in interpretation. It's a known fact, for instance, that white people are more likely to list their religion as 'Christian' if they live in or right next to a large concentration of minorities.

In London, perhaps (complicated by African/Carribean community presence). Though there is a striking difference in South London and again in the more 'trendy' parts of North London that are cheek by jowl next to non-Christian religious areas

I think there is a regional pattern here. Wales isn't shown (but was asked the same question) and there's a high wall of Nones at the border. Urban West Midlands is more 'pink' than urban West Yorkshire. Indeed outside the Severn/Wash line the map is almost topographic with deeper red hues in upland areas.
92  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 02, 2014, 06:04:18 am
That's true, of course. But nevertheless there is now reason to believe that the Yes campaign has some momentum, which hasn't really been the case before now (except in a slow treacly sense).

While I (have to) expect a No victory, I've been very surprised at how unfocused the No campaign is at the moment; there's a hint of perhaps misplaced desperation that is starting to seep into the public consensus. From the start, I don't think that No expected it would have to even try. Now that it just might have to, it's not sure what to say.

I think the key this time round are non voters and Labour voters. In 2011 Labour thought it would win and towards the end of the campaign thought it would loose but not by much of a larger margin than in 2007. It's vote held up in the 'swing' areas it was canvassing but collapsed in areas where it took it's vote for granted. It's very difficult to canvass for a referendum such as this but from what I've been aware of, No (who are fairly thin on the ground) are targeting areas that are 'swing' areas politically at the GE/Holyrood. I'm not entirely sure I see the logic in doing that.

If the polls move towards 50/50 and are in any way close to the mark, then it will all depend on who get's their supporters out to vote.
93  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: September 01, 2014, 03:46:33 pm
Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47
94  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Gay teen attacked by family (VIDEO) on: September 01, 2014, 06:14:04 am
What is interesting about this is that it's the sort of 'conversation' that a lot of people face behind closed doors but is never captured for the world to see. Christianity/faith can be an enabler of hate; something that is clung to that overrides common sense and even family, with dark and disturbing consequences.
95  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Ernest on: September 01, 2014, 03:20:41 am

That's a bear pride rainbow :p
96  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Doctor Who - Series 8 on: August 31, 2014, 03:09:41 pm
Episode 2 was rather good. It was also quite different. Murray Gold is more electronic, less bombastic. It's less frantic too. I tend to hate Dalek episodes (2005's 'Dalek' excluded) but I enjoyed this.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: August 29, 2014, 05:00:06 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Which is why they will never let you see this;

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/fife/margo-macdonald-and-jim-sillars-the-target-of-vile-attack-in-fife-1.513018

Because eggs is eggs...
98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014 on: August 29, 2014, 06:08:35 am
There was the first debate. The snap ICM poll of debate viewers showed no change in voting intention but suggested Darling had won the debate. Survation however came out with a larger No lead than it's previous poll. Cue 'Salmond finished' headlines for the next 10 days. YouGov said there was little change and then two polls said that Yes had closed the gap. Then came the second debate. Snap ICM poll showed no change in voting intention but suggested that Salmond had won the debate. Survation then came out with a poll showing that Yes had narrowed the gap, even though this was them reverting to the previous levels of support...

And so it continues.

The problem for the pollsters is this.

1. They are polling Scotland.
2. They are polling a referendum.
3. They are used to weighing by voting intention but can't decide by which election on which to do so.
4. They are having to adjust for men/women.
5. They are having to adjust for how many 'English' born are in Scotland because they are disproportionate No voters except in some samples where they are not.
6. They don't know what the turnout is going to be because the polls suggest it might be the highest in two generations yet experience would suggest something high, but more modest
7. They don't know who is more likely to turnout if the turnout is high or low
8. If they get it wrong and get red faces, it's not as if they are going to be faced with polling the same issue again.
99  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone II - Less Boring, More Whoring on: August 26, 2014, 03:05:21 pm
Currently in Dublin.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Independence Referendum - 2014 on: August 25, 2014, 05:01:00 pm
Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

Well if shouty Salmond had let anybody get a word in edgeways...

He wasn't particularly shouty in either debate. I'll take the 51-49 to no voting intention with ICM. It's a good start.
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