Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 24, 2017, 06:25:22 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 880
76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AZ-Saguaro Strategies (D): Clinton +2 on: October 28, 2016, 04:26:38 am
Anyone know the Hispanic split?
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: shy clinton factor on: October 27, 2016, 04:45:00 pm
Early days, but might be borne out in early voting.
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Willing to go out on a limb here... on: October 27, 2016, 02:51:13 pm
Trump black vote

Low end: 16 percent,  could top out at 22-23

Couldn't agree anymore with you.

So you think Trump is going to do better amongst AA voters than Romney, Mc Cain, W Bush, Dole, Bush, Reagan, Ford, Nixon and while the breakdowns aren't available before 1972, probably better than any Republican candidate since the Civil Rights Act? What evidence are you basing that on?
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: October 27, 2016, 02:42:43 pm
538 adds the Quinnipiac polls, adjusts them up in Clinton's favour and Trump's chances bounce up. He's up from 13.7 to 16.9 on the now cast over the course of the day. I find that unusual.
80  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: The Mormonism Thread 2.0 on: October 27, 2016, 02:37:57 pm
I realize I haven't really contributed to this thread for almost a full month, so does anyone have further questions?

More cultural. Your thoughts on this? http://www.advocate.com/music/2016/10/21/tyler-glenn-bares-his-mormon-soul-excommunication

In particular his cathartic 'revealing' of Mormon ritual. I know that can be a sensitive spot. I briefly dated a former Mormon (he had two kids and a supportive ex wife) and was quite open about talking about what he felt were the absurdities of everything.
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3 on: October 27, 2016, 09:59:26 am
This completely ignores that Trump is also underperforming among Whites.

Which is why Texas is this close a decade too early.
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3 on: October 27, 2016, 09:53:07 am
For info the Latino split is 56-33 to Clinton. Latino Decisions has it at 68-18; a 40 point lead not 23. If so, she's likely ahead.

If 68-18 is the correct split, the lead would be 50, not 40. 

Thanks for the correction.

This poll has Clinton up 23 on Trump with Latinos. In 2012 Obama was up 41. Clinton is up 50. In 2012 Latinos made up 27% of voters. This poll's sample is quite Trump friendly. If it's an Obama style margin then this poll would be 47-44 to Clinton (assuming no change in turnout). If it's Clinton by 50 then the poll would be 46-41 Clinton.
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3 on: October 27, 2016, 08:33:56 am
For info the Latino split is 56-33 to Clinton. Latino Decisions has it at 68-18; a 40 point lead not 23. If so, she's likely ahead.
84  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Vatican's new rule: not allowed to scatter cremated ashes, or keep at home on: October 26, 2016, 02:25:28 am
New rule? This has always been the teaching. Don't have your ashes scattered. It has to do with showing proper respect to a human body.

Also, if your reason for not being Catholic really is that you want to scatter people's ashes all over the place, or keep Grandma in the china cabinet, I would seriously question your priorities.

It's a little bit broader for me: I'm not going to let some old men in Rome dictate my life or be the foundation of my relationship with God.

"Some old men in Rome" who happen to be God's chosen successors on Earth.

According to themselves.
85  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of TJ in Cleve on: October 24, 2016, 04:10:08 am
Here's the thing (and this is partly in response to Antonio's car crash post), LGBT rights; the idea that LGBT people are part of the spectrum of human experience and as such deserve rights to marry, rights to be with each other, rights to simply be is rapidly becoming a red line issue for many people who aren't LGBT. Which is a good thing. Religious gymnastics over the issue, or passive agressiveness (oh we don't think being that way is wrong, but you can't love someone, marry them or settle down with them) or pseudoacademic responses about what is 'natural' or what St Oldfart of Irrelevance said about it in 600AD just doesn't cut it anymore. Not only is the position itself deeply inhuman, but the contrived attempts to define LGBT as 'other' who can not and should not be able to share in acceptance, love, family and marriage like everyone else is disingenous, whether it comes from a robed virgin in a peaked hat or a slick suited, twice married bible clutching salesman.

The reason why this is becoming untenable is because LGBT people aren't other; they're you, or your brother, or your daughter or your best friend or your work colleague. All these people living lives, and being happy with their partner and raising kids, or nursing each other in sickness. People who have lived whole lives together and you're telling me there is 'wrongness' in this? 'sin'? 'disorder'?
If you can't see love when it dances and laughs in front of you, when it cries or coughs or dies in front of you, then you're wilfully 'shutting' something off from the human experience. It's no different from racism, which employs the same tactics; resiliently denying the validity of others based on a immutable characteristic despite knowing they are basically doing the same things with their life as you are.

Someone could be the life and soul of the party. They could be the kindest, most charitable, most reasonable person, but if they hold people of a different race either in contempt or to a lower standard, or a separate standard; telling them they can't have what they have, or if they can, it must be a different version, then they are awful people. I've known people like that and disassociated with them. The same is true of LGBT issues. It's a red line.
86  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Leaving until after the election on: October 24, 2016, 02:25:23 am
Take care. Come back when the west coast closes!
87  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: When feminists and liberal men disagree on: October 23, 2016, 03:45:22 pm

I'll admit that the last few sentences of your post make good points but the first, at least when you get outside (relatively) cossetted First-World-problems territory into the parts of the world where most people and thus most prostitutes actually live and work, strikes me as simply ludicrous.

I don't want to have language about this further right now.

My job from 2007 to this July, which I suppose I can now talk about, was dealing at a government level with victims of crime including reading full statements, police reports and social service reports from victims of childhood sexual abuse and adult victims of sexual abuse. I have probably looked at a tens of thousands of cases in that time.

Sexual abuse of prostitutes is under reported for two significant reasons, with the prime reason being that fact that it is usually a statutory offence. Secondly, there is a strong link between people who have been victims of abuse prior to or outside of solicited sex, of which 'payment' numbs that particular pain to the point it ceases to 'feel' like abuse. That's what I mean by there not being a distinct set of economic conditions (i.e 'being poor') to prostitution. Furthermore those who solicit, their clients and even wider society and law have created an artificial differentiation between 'low class' prostitution and 'high class' soliciting. From experience, those who suffer abuse within that model (as there is 'choice' and 'self regulation') tend to be more willing to reporting the abuse and having a proper response by the authorities.

Continued criminalisation of prostitution perpetuates this division. Indeed, why would a high class call girl want to be equal in law with decriminalisation in place rather than remain 'classier' with continued criminalisation that is less intrusive for them than those on the street? And that's where, with everything, power and protection is an issue much more than money.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12 on: October 23, 2016, 08:22:49 am
On the 538 swingy with white college split, Clinton flips NC, GA , AZ and NE2 with a 49.7-38.7 vote share. With the white gender split those states flip as does IN, SC, MO, MT, MS with a 51.2-37.2 vote share.

And this is with generous non white subsamples in the poll.
89  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: A religion poll on: October 23, 2016, 05:41:33 am
Atheist (if it's a god v no god choice)
90  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: When feminists and liberal men disagree on: October 23, 2016, 05:28:54 am
While I don't agree with it, there's a strong consequentialist argument to be made for just blanket decriminalizing prostitution (including pimping, buying the services of a prostitute, et cetera) until such time as the economic conditions that lead most of the women involved into it can be addressed. I don't agree with it both because it's consequentialist and because 'such time' could be anywhere from five years from now to never depending on the country and on what counts as addressing the conditions, but I have heard actual ex-prostitutes, who have no love lost for the practice or for the various types of seedy men involved, advocate this.

What I don't like at all is the 'muh legalize, regulate, and tax' model, which both drives prostitutes to turn more tricks than they otherwise would because their income is being taxed and gives the government a perverse incentive to keep prostitution around.

It's also worth recognizing that laws against prostitution aren't really all that traditional in either etiology or intent. They were for the most part enacted after proto-feminist, or very very early first-wave, campaigns in the mid-to-late nineteenth century. Which, yes, had a lot to do with common female sexual anxieties, but considering the vectors for how things like STDs are spread I don't think we should write that off as intrinsically unreasonable or compare it to men's anxieties about 'cucking'.

There are no distinct economic conditions that result in male or female prostitution, call girls, gigolos etc. It's naive to think it's just sexual entrapment foistred on the poor and vulnerable. Professional women will do it to pay for college. Men to boost income. Indeed 'high class' prostitution is in many ways self regulated and 'safer' for those who pursue it. Where regulation is non existent, those with money and position are often protected. Those at the bottom however have to obtain that protection from others, leading to sexual exploitation.
91  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of TJ in Cleve on: October 22, 2016, 09:12:03 am
I've never liked him. Sorry.
92  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Are you afraid of death? on: October 21, 2016, 04:10:53 pm
All of you get a room.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Super PAC publishes credit card numbers of donors on: October 21, 2016, 01:41:58 pm
BasketLeaks?
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: YouGov MI/CO/NH/WI/NC/FL/PA/NV/IA/OH/GA: Clinton up, tied in GA on: October 21, 2016, 08:55:33 am
Once again, it's a model. Look at Utah. There isn't even an option for McMullin.
95  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Debate 3 Poll, Focus Group, Pundit Reaction Megathread on: October 20, 2016, 11:00:22 am
Just really sad one of these two clowns will be our next president. How on earth did we get to this point?

We can blame the south and the tea party/far right types for Trump. Heck, I also blame talk radio/most conservative talk shows for fooling people into a frothing mad mass of hate.

You can blame the entire electoral strategy of the GOP since at least 1976.
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Daily Tracking Poll/ Regular Opinion poll schism? on: October 20, 2016, 10:30:41 am
LA Times is horribly weighted.

See below for how it can be 'fixed'

https://sites.google.com/site/latuscrw/
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: As a Democrat, I feel this election is rigged. on: October 20, 2016, 06:45:29 am
History demonstrates that democracies die when you give people who openly seek to undermine it a 'fair hearing' in the name of balance. It's the job of a democracy to call out demagoguery when it presents itself.
98  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone IV - Hungover on: October 17, 2016, 11:11:49 am
Bought underwear for endowed men. This is not some self aggrandising but relief at a decent f-cking fit and support at last.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Evangelicals without Standards on: October 17, 2016, 05:24:58 am
An Evangelism movement borne out of post 60's boomer hedonism that promotes the self, and self fulfillment and a 'personal' relationship with God above all things, without standards? Surely some mistake.
100  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the Atlas bizarre gay Mafia on: October 13, 2016, 05:42:58 am
Very positive.  Who doesn't love an army of gay arm-chair cartographers and political scientists?  Why?  Because we map with a flourish and we political science with pizzazz.

We also fill up PAPOY with crotch shots (oh wait.. that's just Afleitch Smiley)

Torso shots. Not crotch shots Wink
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 880


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines