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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Christie finished? on: May 29, 2015, 09:41:03 am
He's even more finished now. (Not that he wasn't before.) During the annual roast of the NJ governor, he apparently launched a profanity-laced diatribe against reporters criticizing his administration:
Quote
"We don't give a s--- about this or any of you," Christie told a crowd of 350 people at the Hamilton banquet hall on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg Politics. The event was an annual event in New Jersey which features a roast of the sitting New Jersey governor. Elected officials, journalists, and lobbyists attend the event.

The New Jersey governor said one journalist should "open your eyes" and "clean the s--- out of your ears."

"This is a guy who says he doesn't know what I'm doing every day," Christie said of another journalist according to the Bloomberg report. "Then just get the f--- away from me if you don't know what I'm doing."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/chris-christie-roast-vulgar-journalists
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Paula Jones; Hillary unfit to be President on: May 28, 2015, 05:53:13 pm
Just how damaging is this to Hillary, both in a primary, and more importantly in a General Election?

Not at all. The Republican PR machine has thrown so many accusations at Hillary over the years and recently, that she'd practically have to be caught handing nuclear weapons over to the head of ISIS for anything to gain real traction with swing voters. 99% of "scandals" from now to election day are nothing but red meat for the base that hates her.

That's not to say that she hasn't done things that ought to hurt her, but that between the right-wing's endless attempts to turn everything into campaign-destroying wrongdoing and the sheer repugnance of the Republicans' positions to many voters, scandals aren't going to be doing much damage to candidate-presumptive Senator-Secretary Clinton. (She can still totally sink her own ship if she really screws up, though.)
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker: Mandatory Ultrasounds are "Just a Cool Thing" for Women on: May 27, 2015, 07:01:14 pm
This just shows that he is incredibly tone deaf when it comes to this issue. What he said was extremely patronizing to women, particularly young unmarried women where the GOP continually run into trouble.

Walker's problem is that it's far from being "just this issue" that he's tone-deaf on.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker: Mandatory Ultrasounds are "Just a Cool Thing" for Women on: May 27, 2015, 02:48:58 pm
Udall lost because Obama listened to the idiotic advice of Pryor and Hagan and chose not to act on immigration before the midterm elections.

Um, no. Immigration had nothing to do with it (if anything, bringing up that issue would have only hurt him more). Udall would have won had he not run a one-issue campaign. Cardner defeated an incumbent who was a great fit for the state by less than 2 points in a liberal swing state in a big GOP year, so..

Agreed. Udall lost because he ran a terrible, awful campaign. Just like Walker is doing now.

While there's an outside chance Walker might be viable in some future primary, I think he's a loss for the 2016 cycle. Too much stupid and too much ego. The Walker campaign (such as it is) may (will) keep shambling on for a good while, but its not going anywhere.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: My ten most groundbreaking and unique observations about US politics on: May 26, 2015, 11:23:07 pm
I really like #5 myself. They're all corrupt crooks or millionaires anyway.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker : Undecided on Iowa Straw Poll, May Skip FL Primary on: May 26, 2015, 11:01:29 pm
I was actually thinking about this a few days ago, where there's so many candidates that all of them decide to avoid states where they know it's almost impossible to win.

I know candidates have skipped Iowa or New Hampshire relatively successfully in the past, but I think doing any more than that (and possibly doing even that, this time around) is basically admitting defeat. There are enough candidates in that some of them are going to run in all the primaries and have a degree of representation in all the caucuses. Skipping contests is going to look like defeat after other candidates with similar profiles make any showing at all.

Candidates have skipped other candidates' home states plenty of times.

In any case, Florida is two weeks after Super Tuesday…the race may very well be decided by then, so what difference does it make.  Since it's Bush's and Rubio's home state, and it's WTA, Walker may only be competitive there if he's basically already won the nomination.

At which point, yes, it might make some sense to focus efforts elsewhere to the point of leaving Florida on its own. But to say, now, when he hasn't even announced that he's running, "Oh, I'll be skipping Florida and probably Iowa" is foolish and tone-deaf. Yet another mistake from Team Walker in the Invisible Primary, in my opinion.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker : Undecided on Iowa Straw Poll, May Skip FL Primary on: May 26, 2015, 02:41:11 pm
I was actually thinking about this a few days ago, where there's so many candidates that all of them decide to avoid states where they know it's almost impossible to win.

I know candidates have skipped Iowa or New Hampshire relatively successfully in the past, but I think doing any more than that (and possibly doing even that, this time around) is basically admitting defeat. There are enough candidates in that some of them are going to run in all the primaries and have a degree of representation in all the caucuses. Skipping contests is going to look like defeat after other candidates with similar profiles make any showing at all.

In Walker's case, with his inept pre-campaign, coming out with a "strategy" that says "well, I don't have a chance in Florida" feels off-putting, in exactly the way a would-be president shouldn't.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who are Walker's main base of support? on: May 26, 2015, 02:33:11 pm
Whoever the Koch's. money can buy.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker : Undecided on Iowa Straw Poll, May Skip FL Primary on: May 26, 2015, 02:30:24 pm
Perhaps he can skip Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada too.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee defends admitted child molester on: May 23, 2015, 12:37:19 am
He does have a history of defending deplorable figures. The article describes a perfect case where he wanted a rapist free and, sure enough, he raped and murdered someone else. He seems to show compassion for, in particular, males who commit horrible sexual acts.

Joke candidate.

Another example.

He seems willing to believe anyone who proclaims to be a good Christian. Some what call that compassionate, I see him as being gullible.

And I see it as playing to his customers. The Huckster isn't running for president. He's getting tons of free PR for his book sales and next TV contract.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump Run? on: May 22, 2015, 12:35:17 am
Terrifyingly, Trump is sounding saner than many of the "big" candidates.

http://washington.cbslocal.com/2015/05/21/donald-trump-this-country-is-a-hellhole/
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Rubio even running? on: May 19, 2015, 04:33:36 pm
To polish his resume for Governor of Florida in 2018, and possibly President in 2024. Given the crew of clowns running, all he has to do is not be a stupid ass and he'll look great by comparison. And hey, there's always the outside chance that he actually ends up getting the nomination and winning, as Prez or VP.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Any conceivable circumstance in which 2016 is a landslide for Hillary? on: May 18, 2015, 04:40:20 pm
Republicans nominate an "extremist" ticket and Obama is assassinated by a Tea Partier while speaking at the Democratic National Convention.

This, or something like it. It doesn't have to be an assassination of Obama, though. Let any of the real crazies somehow get the nomination and then add on something unforgivable to a large segment of the electorate - a call to "kill the gays" or "put women back in the kitchen" that is then not walked back. Open and public calls for a religious-conservative theocracy here in the US might do it, too.

I'd say the odds of something like that happening are about equal to the chances of something that utterly sinks Hillary's chances - a massive economic crash, devastating terror attacks in the US, or the US drawn into a major war that's going poorly.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who WILL BE the GOP nominee for President? on: May 18, 2015, 11:23:47 am
I don't know. Of the "running" crowd, it's Bush, Walker or Rubio; the others can't be taken seriously. And while I know its early, Bush and Walker have been uninspiring with a number of minor stumbles, and Rubio has little buzz. So it sort of does come down to "he who self-destructs last" as the candidate.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb says that George W. Bush is on of his main Middle East advisors on: May 08, 2015, 04:37:29 pm

Perhaps, with Obama's growing list of failures (Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and arguably Syria and Egypt, too), he's going to decide that since he can't shake his brother and his last name, he might as well embrace them, at least on the foreign policy front.

"My brother won in Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama and Hillary Clinton lost them."
"When my brother was in charge, the only thing that overthrew Arab regimes was US."
"Syria, Libya, and Yemen weren't havens for Al Qaeda when my brother was president."
"When a Bush is president, we win wars in the Middle East."

And more along those lines, though not with that exact phrasing, obviously. Not that I agree, but the seed of the argument is there. And it would only get better if Iran were to pull out of talks and detonate a demonstration nuke before the election.

16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs. Walker on: May 06, 2015, 04:09:35 pm
The one that can answer questions.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Carly Fiorina try to win the Republican Primaries? on: May 06, 2015, 04:07:03 pm
None of the above. Judging from her past performances, Fiorina's "winning game plan" will be: fire most of her staff ASAP and move campaign operations overseas, before agreeing to support another candidate, after which she'll publicly state that the candidate she's backing isn't fit to be President.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CarlyFiorina.org launches on: May 05, 2015, 01:24:13 pm

Will the website's stock jump 6.9% after she drops out of the race?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Chris Christie Vetoes Anti-Corruption Law on: May 05, 2015, 08:35:13 am
"Chris Christie Vetoes Anti-Corruption Law To Limit Wall Street Campaign Cash"
http://www.ibtimes.com/chris-christie-vetoes-anti-corruption-law-limit-wall-street-campaign-cash-1907717
Quote
The bipartisan legislation on Chris Christie's desk on Monday was designed to stop New Jersey public officials from delivering lucrative pension deals to their campaign contributors. Gov. Christie vetoed the bill -- at the same time his administration faces a new investigation into New Jersey pension fees paid to financial firms, some of whose executives made contributions to Republican groups backing Christie. The legislation also would have required the pension system to fully disclose all Wall Street fees, a provision Christie said would be "disadvantageous."

The bill in question could have complicated Christie's ability to raise presidential campaign money from Wall Street firms currently managing -- and earning fees from -- billions of dollars in New Jersey's public pension system.

Already, a Securities and Exchange Commission rule effectively bars financial firms managing state pension money from donating to governors who oversee pension investment decisions. The legislation Christie vetoed would have strengthened New Jersey's state version of those federal rules at a time when his officials have placed more public workers’ retirement savings under the management of private financial firms.

Christie's optics are so bad at this point, does he even run?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / New Walker Interview on: May 03, 2015, 12:49:32 am
Walker was recently interviewed by the Iowa Conservative blog Caffeinated Thoughts:
https://caffeinatedthoughts.com/2015/04/scott-walker-voters-are-looking-for-someone-who-doesnt-just-talk/

It's a Walker interview, and so difficult to succinctly summarize. Right Wing Watch has a take on that highlights one of the problems with it:
Quote
In an interview with the Iowa conservative blog Caffeinated Thoughts on Saturday, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker repeated his call for a constitutional amendment to preserve state-level bans on same-sex marriage if the Supreme Court strikes them down, immediately before dodging a question on an anti-choice “personhood” amendment by saying that if he were president he wouldn’t “handle any constitutional amendments.”
I think its safe to say that Gov. Walker still does not interview particularly well.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats only: What would you prefer? on: April 29, 2015, 12:58:04 am
It's stupid to prefer Congress over the Presidency.  The President has a ton of power just by enforcing the laws currently on the books and appointing judges.  A Democratic congress with a Republican President will just get bills vetoed and effectively try to keep the status quo.  You'd also have to obstruct all the crazy right wing judges they'd try to push through. 

And, there's the simple fact that another radical right-winger replacing Ginsburg is incredibly dangerous.  You'd be an idiot to want that unless you want the government dragged back to the 1920s.
Indy, so I haven't voted. But yes, this.^

I probably am going to vote for Hillary, just because I won't want whoever the Republican is appointing Justices.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Have people forgotten about Rick Perry? on: April 26, 2015, 12:15:18 am
Rick Perry hopes people have forgotten about Rick Perry.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What exactly will Republicans run on? on: April 26, 2015, 12:14:21 am
How exactly will they topple Hillary?  By attacking her family ties/Benghazi involvement?  By taking advantage of voter fatigue?  

Republicans mercilessly attacked Obama for every misstep and perceived weakness in his record and still lost by a convincing margin in 2012.  How in the world do they stand a chance against Hillary, who arguably has less baggage (considering she's not an incumbent with mediocre job approval ratings, and thus has no such record to criticize) than Barack?  

Thoughts?  

I'm unsure. There will probably be a fair amount of running against Obama, and promises to make whatever issues their focus groups tell them likely voters are concerned about "better". The plan will be to accomplish the "make things better" via the usual Republican nostrums of less regulation, lower taxes for those already paying low taxes, and cuts to everything the Republicans don't like. All with a new coat of makeup and a facelift, but otherwise the same as they've been since Reagan. They'll be some talk about new national greatness and some careful dog-whistling for the various flavors of bigot.

The nominee will probably be very careful to attack Hillary's positions and plans, but likely will not attack her directly - they'll leave that to the externally funded and nominally independent PACs and the like. The "outside" attack on Hillary will pull no punches and go after every single thing they possible can, and then some.


That's only if the candidate remains sane, though. If one of the nuts actually gets the nomination, then they'll run on God, Guns, and Gynecology with maybe a side-helping of Greed is Good. But then Hillary wins, so it doesn't matter.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Serious Question about Clinton's SoS accomplishments on: April 25, 2015, 12:37:41 am
What are they? If you had to give a nut-shell, 30-second pitch for what she's accomplished as SoS that justifies being elected to the Presidency, what would it be?

I've been thinking about this question, which I think is a good one and the best answer I can come up with for the Hillary campaign is: things didn't fall apart on her watch.

I definitely think there's an argument to be made that she laid the groundwork for a lot of the disasters we're seeing now, but she'd already left before the Ukraine Crisis happened, before Libya completely fell apart, before the military coup in Egypt, and before ISIS went on their rampage.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carly Fiorina to launch May 4 on: April 22, 2015, 05:18:17 pm
Drops out the day after Iowa.

Doesn't matter. The whole point of having her in the race is so they'll have a woman on stage for the early debates.
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