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August 04, 2015, 03:00:29 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dynamics of a Trump surge on: August 01, 2015, 10:28:32 pm
Trump is one of those guys who will do well in the polls but nobody when it comes time to vote will mark him on their ballot. But I think it should be pointed out that we're all idiots playing into his insatiable lust for attention by giving him so much discussion and media coverage

Perhaps if the Republican Party had acted to make it clear to the Huckster that he wasn't welcome to use their primary process as a venue to negotiate a better deal with FOX News it would have been possible to ignore him. But the primaries were a clown car before Trump got involved. He is making it clear to everyone that its a comedy routine that has zilch to do with representative government, though.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's policy platform: because I said so on: August 01, 2015, 10:23:18 pm
He raised Bloom County from the dead. Compared to that, how hard can the rest of it be?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is it just me, or does Trump seem untouchable? on: August 01, 2015, 01:40:21 am
The problem with fighting against Trump is that he is essentially running on a platform of magic. All our problems will be solved easily through his superior negotiating skills.

He will fix illegal immigration by getting Mexico to build a big wall. He will save Social Security by getting China to send back all those jobs pumping up the economy and tax base. He will just get Iran to give us a better nuke deal because reasons.  He has a simple magical solution for everything. And apparently a good chunk of GOPers believe it because he is rich and successful so sure he can do it. How do you argue against something like that?

When you have a party, and really, a whole political system that it based on equally nonsensical premises it becomes pretty difficult. Trump's schtick is pointing out that the Emperor and his whole court are a little on the threadbare side. That would be easy to stomp out, if the Emperor & Co were wearing any clothes.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee doesn't rule out deploying federal troops to stop abortions! on: July 31, 2015, 06:31:33 pm
If the Republicans truly wanted to repair their image, and become a party that can compete and win across the nationally, they would boot the Huckster and others just as bad from the party for the endless string of comments like this or worse.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Kochs freeze out Donald Trump on: July 30, 2015, 11:32:42 pm

The Koch brothers have created a company with 60,000 people without the help of government. They have created non-profits and have given millions to charity. They aren't on television every two seconds.

How is just shy of $200 million (confirmed) in tax breaks and grants "without the help of government"?
http://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/prog.php?parent=koch-industries

(And that's just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Koch's manipulating the government to help themselves.)
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why are the Kochs backing Walker? on: July 30, 2015, 01:17:32 am
Re: Why are the Kochs backing Walker?

The Koch brothers own Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

Seriously, ElectionsGuy—you cannot "understand" this?!

Again, this is a dumb meme. They don't own him anymore than they own any other Republican.

"Koch brothers summon Bush, Cruz, Walker, Rubio to SoCal confab."
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/koch-brothers-wealthy-donors-gop-2016-freedom-partners-seminar-california-120663.html
Quote
Four leading GOP presidential candidates – Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker – are traveling to a Southern California luxury hotel in coming days to make their cases directly to the Koch brothers and hundreds of other wealthy conservatives planning to spend close to $1 billion in the run-up to the 2016 election.

I'd ask why the Kochs even bother to use a middleman, but obviously they have better things to do than waste their time being President. (Maybe we'll get lucky and an earthquake will turn the lot of them into paste.)
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How do you think the debate next week will turn out? on: July 29, 2015, 06:55:34 pm
Trump's years of "reality" TV experience will pay off, as he demonstrates control and a superb ability to nettle his opponents, landing a few blow that the talking heads see as "low" but his supporters love.

Jeb is obviously rehearsed, but in a good way. The talking heads comment that "he looked presidential", even though he doesn't really gain ground as a result of the debate.

Walker will either wallflower, or stick a leg in his mouth and start chewing. My money is on the latter.

Rubio is a little nervous and it shows, but he conducts himself well. May also manage to stay above the melee.

Cruz will likely both mention his father, and lose his temper when one of the other candidates takes a jab at him. This could help him, if he's seen as being rightfully angry over a pesonal attack, or damage him badly, if he comes across as a loose cannon who's ready to fly off the handle rather than play the game like an adult. The only way this doesn't happen is if there's no time for it due to the large number of candidates.

Paul will either be a wallflower, or will say something stupid and obviously pandering that will anger as many current supporters as it will attract new ones.

Huckabee will be brash and confrontational, attacking the other candidates for being insufficiently zealous culture warriors. May get confused and forget this isn't his FOX News show.

Carson having seen Trump and Huckabee in action, Carson decides to sieze the limelight and speak his mind, leaving other candidates wincing.

Christie gets the wind taken out of his sails and much of his thunder stolen. May end up getting more flak from the other candidates than Trump. (Christie can't even plausibly bolt and wreck the election, while Trump can.)

Kaisich sounds reasonable while presenting the generic Republican pitch (families and finance). His best moments are when he stays above the squabbling, which could help if the debate descends into a brawl.

Perry comes across better than any of his previous debates, but still fails to shine. His support notches up.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie to Colorado: Pot party is over if I'm elected President on: July 29, 2015, 06:16:49 pm
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/249526-christie-to-colorado-pot-party-ends-with-me

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Tuesday doused the hopes of those who might want to enjoy state-legalized marijuana with him in the White House.
"If you’re getting high in Colorado today, enjoy it," Christie, a Republican presidential candidate, said during a town-hall event in the early voting state of New Hampshire, according to Bloomberg.

“As of January 2017, I will enforce the federal laws,” he added.

Christie, who has long opposed recreational marijuana and said early this month that he has never tried pot, has stated that unlike President Obama he would not selectively choose which federal laws to enforce.

Well, that's CO lost for the Republicans if Christie is on the ticket.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / The Kochs freeze out Donald Trump on: July 29, 2015, 02:03:18 pm
From Politico:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/kochs-freeze-out-trump-120752.html
Quote
Despite a long and cordial relationship between the real estate showman and David Koch, as well as a raft of former Koch operatives who are now running Trump’s presidential campaign, the Koch political operation appears to have concluded that Trump is the wrong standard-bearer for the GOP. And the network of Koch-backed policy and political outfits is using behind-the-scenes influence to challenge Trump more forcefully than the Republican Party establishment — by limiting his access to the support and data that would help him translate his lead in the polls into a sustainable White House campaign.

I have trouble getting into the mindset of a sincere Republican, but it seems to me that Republicans who are sick of the "political class" and "business as usual" are only going to see this as a plus for Trump, and another reason to reject the RNC and company.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why are the Kochs backing Walker? on: July 29, 2015, 01:57:32 pm
Are the Koch brothers backing Walker? It seems to me that this association between the two was caused by that fake phone call but actually, that fake phone call proves he isn't in their pocket. If he was really their bitch, he would have been able to recognize it wasn't their voice.

Obviously you are overestimating Walker's mental capabilities.

Note: You are talking about a guy who a) won three elections (one of them a recall) in a row, and b) has come out a winner in a merciless war against Wisconsin unions.

Say what you want about Scott Walker, but the evidence so far does not suggest he is some dumbass yokel who doesn't know his politics.  He does, and that's what makes him extremely dangerous.

I see "won three elections" regularly brought up on Walker's political resume again and again. But no one ever points out the context of his victories. I'm sure that if the Democratic nominee for President is Tom Barrett, or the executive of a family corporation whose previous election experience was winning a seat on the school board, Walker would stand a good chance of winning. But that is not the race he's running in.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why are the Kochs backing Walker? on: July 28, 2015, 07:45:50 pm
Seriously, why? The Kochs are libertarians who would line up with the Pauls best. If they actually used their money in a useful way, they could really bring libertarianism into the mainstream. Do they think that Paul has no chance of winning, therefore they put their money behind the candidate that is the most conservative and has a chance of winning? Otherwise I don't understand their thinking.

They like eager way he obediently grovels?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What's wrong with the Rand Paul campaign? on: July 28, 2015, 10:20:45 am
He really hurt himself by trying to please the neo-cons while also trying to please the Libertarians. He just can't please everyone, and he should have realized that.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP donor calls for debate boycott if Trump included on: July 23, 2015, 08:19:29 pm
All that is doing is playing right into Trump's hands and, if anything, pushing him toward an independent bid.

He can say, "See what those Republican elites do? When the common folks have the audacity to support someone they don't approve of, they shut down the debate altogether!"

Yes, this plays right into Trump's (and the Dems') hands. Just the comment is bad enough, but if they actually go through with it, they'll be flushing what chance they have in 2016 right down the drain.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The cause of the Trump surge. on: July 23, 2015, 09:54:37 am
A little from column A, a little from column B. He's pointing at the elephants in the living room, but in crude, tactless and unproductive ways. He's getting media attention because of the spectacle, but that won't be quite as easy for the media to turn off as they'd doubtless like. As long as Trump provides good copy, somebody will be covering him, and his exposure and willingness to address forbidden topics can give him solid support among the radicalized GOP base.

It's really looking to me like Republican insiders spent the last 10 years thinking that catering to hate and ignorance was something they could turn on or off at will, and are now getting some inevitable payback in the form of Trump.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb's Wife on: July 22, 2015, 05:40:55 pm
"He can't even assimilate her."
"[It's his job to teach his wife English because a] leader has to stand up and take responsibility."
"How are you going to protect the sanctity of marriage if you have your marriage in a foreign language?"

What's wrong with y'all?

Their party has spent most of a decade saying question like these are perfectly legitimate, that's what's wrong with them. All the racism and hate has warped the Republican party.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mayer de Blasio: No more new business deals with Trump in NYC on: July 21, 2015, 08:13:13 am
A tiny damper on the wonderful de Blasio era. Targeting upstanding private citizens is a big no no. Trump should seek his revenge.

Targeting private citizens for their public views by the government should be a "no no". Will de Blasio stop the city from hiring any Republican-owned businesses next? This is just going to feed Trump.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump goes one step too far on: July 21, 2015, 01:36:20 am
This is just more of Trump's "truth to power" schtick he riding. Its backfiring because even though its sort-of true, it's also a step too far.  All vets (except Chelsea Manning and Bowe Bergdhal) are Heroes(tm) because they are vets. Challenging our civic religion is still forbidden, it seems.

Those two are still more heroic than most Americans. At least they were soldiers at one point. You're just upset that Chris Kyle can't run for Senator from Tejas to replace Cornyn, you must be devastated.

That was supposed to be sarcasm, indicated by the (tm). (Sometimes this site really could use some emoticons.) I was trying to touch on the Orwell-like hypocrisy about how the Right considers that all members of the military are somehow heroes (no matter what they actually did: good, bad, or nothing ) except when they do something the Right doesn't like. Then their "soldiers are all heroes" line somehow evaporates like morning dew. Politically, I'm very far left, and a supporter of Manning and Bergdhal (and Snowden, Assange, Bryant and many more). 

I do think it would have been funny to watch Cornyn get primaried, though. Not that it would change anything.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker: military strike on Iran on 1st day of presidency is possible on: July 20, 2015, 04:43:46 pm
I guess the Iran deal must have the Kochs' running pretty scared.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump and the Middle Class on: July 20, 2015, 12:00:31 am
You make it sound as if Trump discusses these issues with any level of intelligence or depth instead of blind rage and pettiness. You make sound as if Trump has anything but contempt for regular people. You make it seem as if he really cares about any of these issues and isn't a media figure who craves attention. What a distortion of reality.

Were Republicans really not discussing immigration before this? And don't even get me started on trade.

It doesn't really matter if Trump is doing a good job advocating his positions or not, or even if the positions themselves are reasonable. What he's really doing is pointing out that public political discussion on the Republican side of the table is a teeny, tiny slice of what Americans in general and Republicans in particular care about. He's throwing light on the disconnect between the public and the politicians. And the public are eating it up, while the politicians hate it. Which just feeds the cycle more.

The fact that he's not dead and sinking yet, even after doubling-down on his McCain comments, that were tactless AND questioned our civic religion is astonishing. It shows just how desperate people are for someone, anyone to say something DIFFERENT.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump goes one step too far on: July 19, 2015, 11:50:45 pm
Remember this image of Romney getting off a plane in 2012


Obama's team used that footage in multiple ads. They never mentioned Trump by name but focus groups always picked up on it (which is why they kept using the footage). Merely getting off a plane next to Trump's plane helped drag down Mitt Romney. Now Trump has denigrated Hispanics and Veterans. Hillary already talks about Trump and lumps all the others in with him. You can be sure she will try to find a way to show the eventual nominee with Trump. People like Bush I'm sure dont want to be anywhere near Trump for fear of a pictures/videos of the two being used in the future.

Trump is now completely toxic for the general election. Not only that, for the GOP race he sucking up all the oxygen, thus denying lower tier candidates a chance (note Christie gets no bump). Yesterday the RNC even issued a statement denouncing him. The party wants him out. I'm not sure if they will be able to find a way but I am sure they are trying to find a way to get rid of him, with the major caveat that they are worried he will run 3rd party.

Trump's current run and associated infamy is the inevitable result the Republicans have been building to since Obama was elected. If they didn't want to turn their party into a sewer, then they shouldn't have spent years cheerleading whenever someone threw another shovelful of feces onto their bandwagon. If it wasn't Trump, it would be someone else.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump goes one step too far on: July 18, 2015, 04:40:44 pm
Trump is right. McCain is a despicable fraud, who was only in that plane because his daddy was an admiral, who has built his entire career on his POW status, and has used his power to do nothing but advocate for more wars and attack soldiers and veterans.  Glad someone is finally calling him out. Of course his fanboys in the beltway press will coming running to his defense.

Also hilarious what the mainstream media's priorities are: attacking the first black president? meh. Calling Mexicans rapists? eh. Insulting our beloved maverick JOHN MCCAIN? What an OUTRAGE

This is just more of Trump's "truth to power" schtick he riding. Its backfiring because even though its sort-of true, it's also a step too far.  All vets (except Chelsea Manning and Bowe Bergdhal) are Heroes(tm) because they are vets. Challenging our civic religion is still forbidden, it seems.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump Files for FEC, Brags about 10 Billion+ Net Worth on: July 16, 2015, 09:56:55 am
It's hilarious how we've had so many candidates, fearing the loss of support from Joe Average, downplay their wealth or obfuscate when it came to their financial records, and then this billionaire is trying to exaggerate how much he has. What a campaign.

Perhaps he's trying to tap into the prosperity gospel. "Trump is richer than everyone else, so he must be better than everyone else!"
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Reactions to the Iran deal on: July 15, 2015, 10:24:16 am
Governor Bush said it best I believe:

Quote
The nuclear agreement announced by the Obama Administration today is a dangerous, deeply flawed, and short sighted deal.

A comprehensive agreement should require Iran to verifiably abandon – not simply delay – its pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability.

Based on initial reports and analysis, it appears this agreement does not “cut off all of Iran’s pathways to a nuclear weapon” – in fact, over time it paves Iran’s path to a bomb. Most of the key restrictions last for only 10 to 15 years.  Even before the deal expires, it could allow Iran to develop an industrial-scale enrichment program and continue its R&D on advanced centrifuges and development of an ICBM.   

The deal does not require Iran to come completely clean up front about possible military dimensions of its nuclear program or include true anytime/anywhere inspections necessary for a nuclear program shrouded in deception and lies.

President Obama has acknowledged the agreement would end the United Nations' conventional arms embargo, a critical tool to combat Iran’s support for terrorism and destabilizing activities in the region.

The deal would provide more than $100 billion in sanctions relief that will breathe new life into Iran's malevolent and corrupt regime, enabling its projection of terror and power as well as its repression of the Iranian people – who aspire for, and deserve, a more democratic future.

The clerical leaders in Tehran routinely preach  “death to America” and “death to Israel” – and through their acts of terror, they mean it.  We must take these threats seriously and should not base any agreements on the hope their behavior will moderate over time.

The people of Iran, the region, Israel, America, and the world deserve better than a deal that consolidates the grip on power of the violent revolutionary clerics who rule Tehran with an iron fist.

This isn’t diplomacy – it is appeasement.

There is no way to "cut off all pathways to a bomb" in the "for all time" standard Bush appears to want, for any country that is a member of the NPT and has a nuclear program. The deal makes sure the Iranians can't build a bomb anytime soon - without this deal, they either go the North Korean route or the US goes to war.  This is just Jeb promising the Israelis and neocons their war if he gets elected.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Walker: Minumum Wage is 'lame' on: July 14, 2015, 05:24:10 pm
And the self-insertion of Walker's  lower appendages into his mouth commences. My only question is how much of his leg (or legs) he'll be able to cram in before his campaign chokes.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker, Wisconsin Governor, Says He Is Running for President on: July 13, 2015, 12:18:04 pm
Wonder if he'll self destruct. And I hope he ends Trump's bounce.

I don't think there's much doubt. The only question is how long it will take.
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