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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Serious Question about Clinton's SoS accomplishments on: Today at 12:37:41 am
What are they? If you had to give a nut-shell, 30-second pitch for what she's accomplished as SoS that justifies being elected to the Presidency, what would it be?

I've been thinking about this question, which I think is a good one and the best answer I can come up with for the Hillary campaign is: things didn't fall apart on her watch.

I definitely think there's an argument to be made that she laid the groundwork for a lot of the disasters we're seeing now, but she'd already left before the Ukraine Crisis happened, before Libya completely fell apart, before the military coup in Egypt, and before ISIS went on their rampage.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carly Fiorina to launch May 4 on: April 22, 2015, 05:18:17 pm
Drops out the day after Iowa.

Doesn't matter. The whole point of having her in the race is so they'll have a woman on stage for the early debates.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does anyone on this forum doubt Ted Cruz's intelligence? on: April 22, 2015, 11:53:18 am
Define "intelligence." There are many types of intelligence, and ivy league degrees are evidence of some of them but not others. I do not doubt that he may have aced all his exams in law school or that he was an extremely capable attorney or that he possesses a certain type of cleverness that lends itself well to playing political games.

But I reject the notion that he's any sort of off-the-charts genius as I've seen you insinuate in other threads. And there's a difference between intelligence in the sense of book-smarts and the wisdom required to apply all that knowledge to the world around you in a sensible, logically-consistent, pragmatic, and constructive manner. I want my president to have the latter more than I want them to have a Harvard J.D., and based on Ted Cruz's professed worldview I don't believe that he has that. 

Excellent answer.  Thank you.

Just one thing, it was Harvard Law Professor  Alan Dershowitz, who had Cruz as a law student, who made the comment about Cruz being "off-the-charts brilliant".

I am sure you are aware of that, but just to clarify.

Well, now I doubt Alan Dershowitz's intelligence...

He didn't say "off the chart" in which direction.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kochs Signal Support for Scott Walker on: April 21, 2015, 12:10:29 am
RIP Bush.

no, all this has the potential to do is make the financial playing field competitive (and thus a harder path than Bush 2000, or Romney 2012, to the nomination -- the latter was so distrusted he may well have lost lost if ANY remotely financially viable candidate had stepped up).

Bush has East Coast finance locked up.

Exactly. Jeb was in trouble even with his enormous fundraising advantage. In a competitive financial playing field? He's in DEEP trouble.

Walker has yet to demonstrate that he's viable at the national level. His "feet in the water" efforts so far have gone poorly. And there's always that looming investigation...

5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton faces domestic abuse allegations on: April 19, 2015, 11:19:05 pm
I'm sure we could make a poll on this forum asking people if they think Scott Walker kidnaps puppies and locks them in his basement, and we'd get at least 2 people saying yes. That would translate to "some people", and would therefore have as much credibility as this domestic abuse story.

I thought that was Bill Frist?
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio:"People are born gay. Gay marriage not a right, but I'd attend if invited" on: April 19, 2015, 11:07:13 pm
I have more respect for someone who says its a choice. at least they can justify discriminating against gays because they shouldn't get extra rights for a 'lifestyle'. Rubio is saying "born gay sorry but you are just not as much of a citizen as the normal people".  This isn't middle of the road it is absurd.

As for Walker he actually said he went to a gay reception but not the actual wedding. Again what kind of bizarre calculus is that supposed to be?

The exact same kind of calculus that led to Clinton's "I didn't inhale".
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul: Many in the GOP would have made the middle east worse than Obama has on: April 18, 2015, 10:44:40 pm
Quote
Rand Paul ripped into his hawkish rivals for the Republican nomination Saturday, suggesting that problems in the Middle East would actually be worse under them than President Barack Obama.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/rand-paul-slams-gop-hawks-117107.html#ixzz3XgmGnqzu

I cannot understand why an honest liberal would hate this man more than the other republican candidates. Yet it seems like there is no candidate that gets more hate and vitriol from the red avatars on this board than Rand Paul.

Because I find his habit of rolling a die to decide which group he'll be pandering to this week annoying, insulting, and un-presidential?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton's Big Benefactor Has Trade Links with Iran on: April 18, 2015, 10:43:29 pm
The way things are going the Republicans will have so exhausted everyone's ability to give a damn about scandals that she could pull a Jane Fonda with ISIS and it wouldn't matter.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump's classy tweet about Clinton on: April 18, 2015, 10:41:26 pm
I see the Donald's audition to join the clown car is coming along nicely.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee: young people should wait until Obama leaves office to join US military on: April 18, 2015, 10:36:02 pm
Why does Huckabee hate the troops?

Because they decline to be the "Christian" equivalent of ISIS, like he pretends to want in order to appeal to the fanatics who buy his schtick.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Crazy Cruz Control Thread. on: April 17, 2015, 01:37:11 am
He's not exactly wrong.

Being exactly wrong would be too much to expect from the wanna-be Christian Jihadi President. He's fractally wrong.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In poll memo, Crossroads (Karl Rove) & POS (R) define 15 swing states on: April 15, 2015, 03:30:31 pm
Yes, we are all more knowledge than Karl Rove - we already knew that. In his world, Illinois was so blue because muh home state advantage. Rauner proved that Republicans can beat the Chicago machine. Never mind the corruption and wave factors. It's easily repeatable against Ms. Clinton. Geez, he's so stupid sometimes.

If it gets a bunch of hyper-wealthy conservatives to let him handle over a hundred million dollars in political spending, I don't think he's the stupid one...
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Krugman: It Takes a Party on: April 14, 2015, 04:06:35 pm
Great op-ed from Paul Krugman on the coming 2016 Presidential campaign.  This is a great encapsulation of why I support Hillary Clinton and detest every Republican candidate, no matter how "moderate" they supposedly are.

Quote
...there has never been a time in American history when the alleged personal traits of candidates mattered less. As we head into 2016, each party is quite unified on major policy issues — and these unified positions are very far from each other. The huge, substantive gulf between the parties will be reflected in the policy positions of whomever they nominate, and will almost surely be reflected in the actual policies adopted by whoever wins.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/13/opinion/it-takes-a-party.html?_r=0

Paul Krugman is wrong often enough about significant issues that you're better off just ignoring him completely.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie fails to report income, avoids $152k in taxes on: April 14, 2015, 12:21:16 pm
At this point, I actually want Christie to run, for sheer amusement value.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FiveThirtyEight: Rubio first real candidate to enter, Cruz/Paul not serious on: April 14, 2015, 12:20:04 pm
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/marco-rubio-announcement-2016/

The media and pundits are going to look really dumb if Rubio fizzles out.

This is just repeating the obvious: unlike Cruz and Paul, Rubio doesn't start the race already inside the clown car. They're not saying that he's going to win, just that he is a serious candidate, something that isn't true of Rand or Cruz, no matter what their supporters think.

They do miss one point though, he's on the outs with the roots of the tea party:
http://www.teaparty.org/tea-party-conservatives-turn-marco-rubio-blast-sellout-immigration-94065/
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Hillary Win? on: April 11, 2015, 01:46:30 pm
Tentatively, yes.

She is far from being a sure thing or a perfect candidate, and there are two big variables: who the Republicans nominate, and what disasters (if any) happen during the remainder of Obama's term.

I doubt there are any scandals more significant than "emailgate" or "Benghazi" lurking, but one could always emerge. I think it's more likely that something happens to damage the Democratic brand generally, but I'm not sure what it would be. A disastrous terror attack or massive economic collapse would hurt her chances, I think.


But a great deal still depends on who the Republicans nominate to oppose her. Their roster is awful, and they're going to have to struggle to get someone even marginally electable as the nominee.

Of course, Hillary could still screw-up her primary somehow, but I think that's pretty unlikely too.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump is the only man who can win on: April 11, 2015, 12:56:00 am
I have to admit that the Donald is the only person who can beat the otherwise inevitable Hillary. Consider the following:

It goes without saying that almost any Republican will win Colorado, since Hillary polls so poorly there. Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota are also trending Republican, so they will definitely be winnable for the Donald. With Obama off the ballot and turnout in Cook County sinking to near zero, Illinois is also likely Republican. Wisconsin is a Republican pipedream, though -- Romney didn't even win it with Paul Ryan as his running mate; and on top of that, many of the Republican voters there will be home sulking over Scott Walker's humiliating primary defeat by the Trumpster.

Ohio is off the table; Hillary polls way too strongly there. The Hillster will also likely carry Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia (not to mention Arkansas) because of her white skin and her popularity with Appalachian women. Virginia is one of the safest Democratic states in the country now, and Georgia and North Carolina are also trending hard Democratic, so the Hillmeister can probably put those in her "safe" column, too. Hillary also wins Arizona, Nevada and Texas without difficulty because Hispanics love her.

On the other hand, Progressives hate Hillary, so New England and the Pacific Northwest will probably revert to their ancestral Republicanism. Delaware is a traditional bellwether, so with favorite son Joe Biden no longer on the ballot, I'll give that one to Trumparino. Santorum as VP will secure Pennsylvania. The biggest reason why Trump, in particular, is the candidate to beat the Hilldabeast, though, is that he puts New York's 29 electoral votes in play. In conclusion,

I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz: Gay Community Waging 'Jihad' Against Religious Freedom on: April 10, 2015, 01:42:58 pm
Quote
During a presidential candidate forum hosted by an Iowa homeschool group yesterday, Ted Cruz lashed out at the gay community for waging a “jihad” against so-called religious freedom laws in states such as Arkansas and Indiana.

Cruz, speaking at a panel moderated by conservative talk show host Steve Deace, who regularly castigates the “Rainbow Jihad,” told the crowd of homeschooling activists that they should fear “the jihad that is being waged right now in Indiana and Arkansas, going after people of faith who respect the biblical teaching that marriage is the union of one man and one woman.

By condemning this gay “jihad,” Cruz said, he could “bring people together” to defend religious freedom.

Source.

This is why the Republican Party is not going to become "moderate" on social/religious issues any time soon.

Cruz isn't going to be the nominee. But it is sad to watch Jeb's acrobatics in dealing with SSM and the religious claims of a right to discriminate against the same as he tries to navigate his way through the shoals to the nomination. Jeb needs to take a courage pill. He has not handled this issue well. He really needs me to advise him on this topic - yes me. Sad  There is a way to get this right. Jeb hasn't found it.

Jeb might manage to be the nominee, but stuff like this (not just SSM alone, but the whole "catering to the right-wingnuts" schtick) is going to damage him, or whoever the nominee ends up being.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Upshot: GOP race looks Chaotic: It's Not. on: April 09, 2015, 08:55:39 pm
After Cruz's fantastic rollout are we STILL talking about Marco Rubio as a serious contender? this is fycking ridiculous.

Fantastic - Existing in or constructed from fantasy; of or relating to fantasy; fanciful. Not believable; implausible; seemingly only possible in fantasy. Resembling fantasies in irregularity, caprice, or eccentricity; irregular; grotesque.

Yes, I'd say that fantastic describes it perfectly.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Insiders view Paul as strong early state contender (Politico) on: April 03, 2015, 06:24:53 pm
snip:
Quote
He needs to distance himself from some of his father’s positions,” said one nonpartisan insider. “In particular, that means foreign policy. It seems foreign policy/international relations issues may be more important than usual this cycle, so it’s even more important that he finds a position acceptable to a broader group of GOP voters. The problem with doing so is that moving away from his father’s positions carries the risk of alienating the libertarian voters who are his base.

Article.


That means he should compromise his principles? If he does that, I won't support him.

He compromised his principles (assuming he ever had any) some time ago, when he because pro-intervention:
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-mcmanus-column-rand-paul-20141026-column.html
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why Do You Think Bush Is Strongest? on: April 01, 2015, 07:22:36 pm
I'm about as far from being a Republican as you can get; I sort-of agree with Brewer. I see Bush as a strong candidate because I think he's going to be less prone to campaign-wounding foot-in-mouth moments than Walker and Paul. Also, because money.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scenario: Joe Biden wins it all 2016 on: March 30, 2015, 10:00:10 pm
Not my favorite candidate, but eh, better than Hillary.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CBS national poll on who voters would "consider voting for" on: March 29, 2015, 10:02:14 pm
No one is going to be talking about the email thing a month from now. It has no legs to stand on, especially when it raises all sorts of uncomfortable questions about certain GOP candidates' emails, say, I don't know, Jeb Bush.

While it will likely die as a serious issue (unless something truly damning comes to light), the right-wingnuts will be talking about Hillary's email until the election (and for the next 4-8 years if she becomes president).
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ron Paul Supporters Bolt Rand Paul Camp on: March 27, 2015, 01:06:38 pm
I'm not surprised to see Rand Paul losing support - he's become even less libertarian than most of the "beltway libertarians". That his lost support is going to Ted Cruz says nothing good, and gives some more evidence to the idea that a chunk of Ron Paul's supporters were always using libertarianism as a cover for their extreme right-wing conservative views on race, gender, and religion.
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Saudi Arabia and GCC allies bombing Yemen on: March 26, 2015, 09:50:47 am
I'm beginning to doubt the effectiveness of protracted airstrikes on terror targets.

They seem to work just fine at destabilization. Pakistan next?
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