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July 02, 2016, 02:46:56 am
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sarah Palin calls #NeverTrumpers RATs on: Today at 01:21:18 am
Oh Donny please surprise us all and pick her for the ticket ! LOL.

Then they can both quit mid-term!
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Bernie staying in, in the hopes Clinton is indicted? on: Today at 12:41:09 am
Guys, believe it or not, I am aware I was too pessimistic over the primaries and have already taken that into account. However, this is not the same thing as a primary election. Unlike an election, which is a transparent event with virtually unlimited data points, including polls that you can use to say, 'Beet's prediction is a longshot/outlier', the law enforcement elite is a secretive cabal of bureaucrats. There are no direct data points here. The people this forum studies - politicians - are the prey of these people. Studying the prey does not tell you anything about the predator.

Think about this from Loretta Lynch's perspective. If there is no indictment recommendation coming, you're as happy as a peach. You're as high as a kite. Why? Because the FBI make a recommendation and Democrats would be happy and Republicans would have to accept it - the FBI would be the point of focus. Bill Clinton comes over and talks to you - you give him a few positive wink wink, nod nods, knowing that everything is rainbows and butterflies, and that's that.

Now suppose the opposite - the FBI recommends indictment. Now you're sweating like Homer Simpson after being accidentally locked in a sauna for 3 hours. Water is pouring down your shirt like Usain Bolt's after a 100m dash. Because all the heat is going to be on you. You will piss off either Republicans or Democrats on an epic level. So you're looking for any excuse - any. To recuse yourself.

Enter Bill Clinton.

The guy (who should really take a vacation to Tahiti for the rest of the campaign) still wracked with guilt over decades of infidelity and damaging Hillary's career up till now, still can't help himself and goes over to talk to you in your private plane. This obviously, highly inappropriate, egregious breach of ethics gives you the perfect excuse to out yourself. So you do.

The public only sees the end outcome of this. But think like a detective. Today's action suggests that Clinton is finished.

Anyway, want to keep this thread about Bernie. After the indictment he will look vindicated for keeping his campaign going, and that's what he's counting on. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 'mole' somewhere. Before today, his decisions made no sense. Now, his decisions do make sense.

You leave out a critical point which destroys your entire thesis. Why would President Obama and Vice President Biden endorse a candidate they know will be indicted? The blowback hits them too. The moment they endorsed Clinton pretty much ruled out any possibility of an indictment because they know better than anyone else what is going on with the email investigation.

But what if (presuming this scenario is true for purposes of discussion) something in the investigation changed between the Obama & Biden endorsements and this past week?

I.e. both the FBI, Justice and State were confident of "no indictment" and then something (who knows what) popped up that made indictment nigh-inevitable?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is all the stress going to Trump's head? on: July 01, 2016, 07:17:14 am
Dementia.

Is he having trouble recalling names of everyday objects and familiar people? Is he repeating sentences? These are the signs I would look for.

(Pat Summit's death made me read up on dementia.)

Yes.

From "something" (that he cannot articulate) about Obama, to the name of the EPA, to how he supported the Iraq War, terrorist groups he's previously denounced,  Samuel L. Jackson, Serge Kovaleski, and David Duke, he regularly forgets people and things exist. 


Repeating things, problems finding words (particularly complex ones), impaired social judgement, and problems with organization and planning are also signs of dementia.

Sound like a presidential candidate near you? (Hey, what do you know, TrumpMiller really is like Reagan!)
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is all the stress going to Trump's head? on: June 30, 2016, 11:27:15 pm
Dementia.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Mexican planes could be attacking New Hampshire on: June 30, 2016, 11:10:42 pm
Everyone I've asked here has had a negative reaction to this, but they're brown and are already lost to Trump.

It's unsurprising that the only demographics TrumpMiller appeals to are orange and pasty.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: With Trump, the GOP Is Heading Toward Oblivion on: June 30, 2016, 08:41:10 am
The 99th post on Atlas skewing Trump claiming the sky is falling.  Of course most legitimate posts skewering lying, crooked Hillary! get pulled by the  mods.

Even as the polls show a trend towards Trump this week.

IT'S LATE JUNE folks. There are ebbs and flows in every cycle.

True. We have no real idea of just how large Trump's loss in November will be.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Brilliance of Trump on: June 30, 2016, 07:34:52 am
Once more Trump shows his political talent and demonstrates his brilliance to all who can see.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump has become born-again on: June 28, 2016, 07:19:37 am
Trump doesn't care about God one way or the other and I question the sanity of anyone who believes otherwise.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Donald Trump lose by double digits? on: June 28, 2016, 07:17:57 am
It depends on how you count. He'll lose by one normal finger, but he'll need two stubby fingers to measure his defeat.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump shifts position on Muslim ban; says only ban immigrants from certain areas on: June 26, 2016, 01:29:47 pm
I think it's adorably hilarious how Trump's cultists like to pretend the words coming out of his mouth have actual meaning.

It's like the stories of the Knights Templar listening to the Head of John the Baptist speaking in tongues, only it's actually happening right in front of us.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's Brexit response on: June 26, 2016, 02:05:20 am
Other fun facts to emerge from TrumpMiller's visit to Scotland:

He's lying to the FEC (or the government of Scotland) about how profitable his properties there are.

And, while he claims he's going to make Mexico pay for a border wall, he can't make a couple of Scots pay for a small wooden fence.

Trump: lying orange sack. He should go back to his previous careers of defrauding stupid rich people, and imitating a Cheeto on TV.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump accused of raping 13-year-old in federal lawsuit on: June 25, 2016, 09:24:23 pm
Innocent until proven guilty. I'm rather sceptical about "sudden revelations" popping out during the election season.

Yeah, as I said before with Bill, accusations based purely on he-said/she-said against powerful and high-profile individuals really should be taken with a grain of salt. There are strong reasons to believe that there are ulterior motives for one reason or another, and that also applies to Trump. Perhaps even more, given how much he has offended virtually everyone but white males.

It's just too easy to say this stuff. There has to be some sort of proof to substantiate their claims.

And yet, the allegations against Hillary Clinton aren't held to this same standard.

If you are talking about the 24 years of sleaze (Whitewater, Bill's Accusers, Benghazi, Vince Foster, the Rose Law Firm, the White House Travel Office firings) people have made their minds up about all of this, one way or the other.  The facts aren't in dispute on any of this.

In all of these matters, Hillary Clinton did not violate any criminal laws.  In all of these matters, Hillary behaved secretively, and in a manner that in no way reflected an appreciation for the public's desire for openness and candor, or the Biblical admonition to avoid not only impropriety, but the very appearance of impropriety. 

I think that is fair and I've written many of the same things myself, but I don't think that's what most people who don't like Hillary Clinton believe about her.  I think in general, they believe, to use the most extreme case, that she had something to do with the 'murder' of Vince Foster.

Yes, and Trump is a mafioso thug.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trumpism on: June 25, 2016, 07:43:24 pm
Trumpism is a movement by those who want the government to continue the social programs and who believe the lies that "immigrants are taking their jobs", have a xenophobic attitude towards Muslims and Hispanics, and have generally a centrist to conservative view on social issues. These are the people who have been reluctantly voting for the GOP for years only because of social issues. Trump has exposed the disconnect between them and the leadership of the GOP.

While I dislike defending TrumpMiller or his supporters at all, I suspect some of them are upset not because "immigrants are taking their jobs" but rather "corporations are shipping their jobs to Mexico/China/etc".
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Not finished: Trump reportedly raised at least $11 million since Tuesday on: June 25, 2016, 07:03:04 pm
Boom! Tell me again how TRUMP's campaign is in decline.

They'll be happy to.  The Trump Deniers won't quit.

It's not whether or not Trump wins or loses that's amazing; it's the fact that Trump has exposed how much more he knows than his opposition, and how behind the curve they are.  If they were not behind the curve, someone else would be the presumptive GOP Presidential nominee at this point.  This is what kills the Trump Deniers; the fact that Little Hands Drumpf, Miller, Donald Dump, or whatever you want to label him as, tied your favorite candidate in knots.

No he really didn't. He ran away from my favorite candidate, like the cowardly sack of lying Cheeto feces he is.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Donald Trump ran an openly sexist campaign... on: June 25, 2016, 10:15:14 am
Trump said that women should face criminal punishment for having abortions (but of course the men who got them pregnant should not). Then he had to walk it back after a firestorm of controversy.
First of all, he didn't say there should be criminal punishment, just some form of punishment. But second, how exactly are are men responsible unless it was a pregnancy caused by rape (which is a crime, and for which most pro-life people exempt from abortion laws) or if they pressured the woman into having an abortion? If you argue that it is solely a woman's right to choose, how can men be even partly responsible for something for a matter they have no say on?

Obviously, you skipped sex ed (and Greek history).
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Donald Trump ran an openly sexist campaign... on: June 24, 2016, 11:17:18 pm
Let's just say that Donald J. Trump ran a campaign that was significantly more sexist than the one he is currently running, would his percentage of male voters increase or decrease?

I think ritually murdering women on stage at his every appearance would get him fewer votes from men.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Reagan's and their staff in the 1980's thought Trump's ego was "huge" on: June 23, 2016, 11:30:35 pm
Trump's ego isn't huge, it's yuge. Get it right.

I believe the correct terminology is "swollen" or maybe "bloated". (Or is that just TrumpMiller himself? It's tough to remember sometimes.)
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Brexit's effect on US General Election on: June 23, 2016, 11:29:35 pm
Brexit would indirectly help Trump if it caused a recession, but otherwise wouldn't have much of an effect.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Not finished: Trump reportedly raised at least $11 million since Tuesday on: June 23, 2016, 11:28:11 pm
We'll see what he reports to the FEC.

TrumpMiller is such a well known liar, statements like this can't really be taken seriously when there's any connection to Trump's campaign.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: North Koreaís Successful Missile Test Shows Programís Progress, Analysts Say on: June 23, 2016, 09:48:02 pm
Goodness gracious, the potential End of the WorldTM if the Kim regime falls is not the problem, the fact that the Kim regime hasn't fallen is the problem.

No, it really isn't.

The Kim regime falling would be a disaster that would make surrounding nations and the world wish fondly for a nice little nuclear exchange instead.

Millions upon millions of refugees, streaming across the Chinese border, the DMZ, and over the sea on anything that might float. A heavily armed military suddenly desperate and without leadership. Nuclear, chemical, and probably bio-weapons going missing in the chaos. It would be a massive disaster, that would make everything the US has done in the Mid-East since the Gulf War look like a walk in the park by comparison.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump already finished? on: June 22, 2016, 10:04:43 pm
He is not favourite, but he is not finished.

It will be interesting to see what happens with his campaign finances.

You have two competing factors.

1. Trump's ego at one of the most critical public moment of his life.

2  trumps tight-fisted Scottish background.

He wont sell a Trump Tower to pay for this.

His assets are tied to his sense of self, and he will go to the electorate for fund raising together with private wealthy individuals.

He wont be entirely self funded.

I am not writing him off just yet.


You're skipping over that he's likely broke/bankrupt or otherwise overstating his real net worth by two orders of magnitude.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why I don't think Trump can rely on Hillary's unpopularity. on: June 22, 2016, 09:11:54 pm
As to point #4:  Trump will use the issue of her treatment of Bill Clinton's accusers against her.  This is a double winner for Trump, who can call out the entire Feminist Left along with her.  How will Hillary look if her participation in a smear campaign against Bill's accusers becomes a debate topic?  Trump won't be afraid to use this issue, and it WILL resonate with SOME women who would ordinarily vote for Hillary.

I have a strong suspicion that if and when Trump tries to unload that gun in Clinton's direction, not only will it backfire, but he'll be inundated with an avalanche of his own affairs.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Donald Trump already finished? on: June 22, 2016, 09:01:09 pm
1). The money issue requires too much insider knowledge to evaluate. How much does a candidate need to spend in order to win? Didn't Trump win the primary despite spending less money than most? Didn't Jeb Bush spend 30-40 million in New Hampshire just to finish 4th place?

2). I agree that a divided party hurts him. People like Romney, McCain, Bush 43, Bush 41, and Paul Ryan are giving no support or lukewarm support.

3). Polls fluctuate, and we are 5 months away from election day, with debates, conventions, and rallies still waiting to happen.

4).  And Trump has just started to attack Hillary and expose all her failures and lies. Many things are still in the doubt: the emails, Benghazi, and other scandals. All these things have the potential to worsen her numbers even further.

This is desperation talking, not reason.

Trump Miller, or whatever alias he goes by this week, got billions in free media coverage. While spin will matter going into the fall, both he and Clinton will be getting tons of coverage. He needs enough money for organizing, messaging, GOTV (desperately) and ads in key areas. He doesn't have it, and doesn't look very likely to get as much as a "typical" candidate would. Worst case for him, Clinton successfully (and accurately) brands indelibly him as a blowhard bullying baby bursting with BS before the RNC.

The divided party, does indeed hurt. That wound could be deadly to his campaign all on its own. At best it "only" hurts him.

Only two candidates have won when they were as far down as the wanna-be orange Fuher is now. And I'd guess Truman and Bush had much better approval ratings.

If you think that regurgitating years of GOP criticism is going to prove decisive in Trump's favor, I've got some great Florida beachfront property you might be interested in.

Donald (the reality-show one, not the Disney one) is finished. The only thing that saves him is a complete collapse of Democratic/Clinton credibility. He's going to spend every night between now and November praying for the next 9/11 or a massive economic crash.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary's new website on Trump: "Art of the steal" on: June 22, 2016, 08:41:56 pm
Dangerous Donald has stolen Hillary's unopposed election. Stone him like women are stoned for being raped in Hillary supporting Saudi Arabia.

I'm pretty sure Donald Trump is stoned in most of his teleprompterless speeches.

Nah, that's just plain old dementia. Or maybe psychopathy. Or what happens when an alien made out of fine gold filaments uses a human body as a meat puppet.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary: all the books Trump wrote about business seem to end at Chapter 11 on: June 21, 2016, 11:04:19 pm
She didn't sign it with -H so she didn't actually write this.
It's a quote from her speech today.

So... she still didn't write it. Tongue

Much like TrumpMiller and "his" books?
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