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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Nations Secretary-General selection, 2016 on: July 24, 2016, 11:37:25 pm
The process is already underway. There's no way for him to jump in, just like Romney cannot jump in the US election at this point.

Russia is known to be insisting that the rotation be followed. So while this would apparently give Turk the lead, there will be a lot of gnashing of teeth if a woman is not chosen.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Nations Secretary-General selection, 2016 on: July 23, 2016, 08:44:34 am

Helle Thorning-Schmidt would be a good choice.

Neither of these people are candidates.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-4 Poll: Mia Love not going anywhere on: July 22, 2016, 01:25:49 pm
I'm not familar with UT-04 but why is Love having so much trouble in an R+14 district?

I know Jim Mathison represented this area for a number of years but he was a conservative Blue Dog who was basically the Democratic version of Lincoln Chafee.
Matheson was helped not only for his Blue Dog views, but his last name as well (his father was a popular former governor). As for why Love seriously underperforms, I suspect that some voters may be racist? That's what other members have also suggested.

Mormons definitely held... problematic beliefs about black people well into the 20th century, but I'd say that nowadays they're, on the whole, probably less racist than the average Republican.

The practice of universal missionary service, often (I can't say what proportion) overseas, means Mormons have intimately experienced foreign cultures in a way that makes impossible to subscribe to the sort of insular bigotry and ignorant xenophobia that has swept many on the right. Furthermore, the growing number of minority Mormons, usually immigrants, like Love (but particularly South Pacific islanders) means that while Utah has become more diverse, there hasn't been the sort of racial polarization or growth in negative attitudes that usually accompanies demographic shifts in this country. Diversity has increased and, generally, they're happy about it-- it helps that growing diversity also attests to the brisk growth of the LDS church.

So no, I don't think it's racism, although we've been through this before. I think the problem is one of personalities-- Matheson was the scion of an political family, and the consummate Blue Dog to boot, while Love ran two lacklustre campaigns.

Romney's performance also overplays the R lean of the district; Romney was a favorite son running for the presidency, and the most popular politician in the state to boot. When you put 2012 to the side, the PVI would be considerably lower, maybe even by half. It's the kind of district a conservative Democrat, which I can only imagine Owens is, could make a play for.

The presidential numbers don't look that weird to me, though. They're pretty similar to what the other Utah polls have shown, and considering the district leans D relative to the rest of the state, they look plausible enough.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: After disasterous RNC Speech who will challenge Ted Cruz in Senate GOP Primary? on: July 22, 2016, 12:48:48 pm
If Cruz was to be primaried over this, it certainly wouldn't be by Rick Perry, let alone George P. Bush.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win in a landslide? on: July 22, 2016, 10:24:09 am
I'd say no, logic dictates that he obviously shouldn't be able to do such a thing. But then again, logic dictates that he shouldn't have been able to win the primary, and he shouldn't have been able to stay-- up until now-- only a few points behind in the polls, either.  I'm increasingly convinced that logic has flown out the window this election, and just because there's no reason for something to happen doesn't mean it won't happen anyway.

The Republican base has revealed itself to be far more bigoted, far less wedded to orthodox conservatism, and far more unconcerned about personal morals, ideological consistency, and even support for THE TROOPS (THE TROOPS!!), than virtually everyone imagined them to be. So no, while there's absolutely no reason whatsoever to believe that Trump will win, let alone in a landslide, this election has shown illogicality is no impediment for illogical things to happen.

I'm turning into Beet, aren't I?
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: NYT: Kaine's the frontrunner; announcement Fri afternoon on: July 22, 2016, 08:37:42 am
As a Republican, I'm disappointed that she did not pick Castro. He gave us the best chance of winning.

Lol, Donald Trump isn't going to win just because Hillary picked Julian Castro as her running mate.  She could pick a rock and it wouldn't change the fact that Trump is Trump.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's nomination is the first time US politics has left me truly afraid on: July 22, 2016, 08:33:20 am
I'm afraid because Trump has absolutely no qualifications to be president. He has no idea what he's doing.

This is my view.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton: Joining A Gang Is Like Having A Family on: July 19, 2016, 07:47:24 am
Technically this is a conservative viewpoint, really. Many young men seek substitutes for absent fathers and male authority figures more generally, as a result of the broken black family. Conservatives have seized upon this since the Moynihan Report, whereas liberals today are more likely to deny the importance of the nuclear family and claim there's nothing wrong with the phenomenon of single motherhood or that its generally understood negative impacts are merely correlates actually caused by income inequality, structural racism, and so forth.

This is a throwback to 90s Clintonism, if anything. Not that I'm complaining!
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Grade the first night of the RNC on: July 19, 2016, 07:41:19 am
plagiarism = automatic zero is the usual rule, but it'd've been an f even without.

The plagiarism was imbecilic and humiliating, but it was the least objectionable portion of the entire night. Telling how American media coverage is more concerned with Trump's bumbling third wife stealing a few platitudes from Michelle Obama, verbatim, than with the veritable feast of hatred, ignorance, and unadulterated rage that comprised the remainder of this ghoulish show, no?

This was exactly my reaction.

It's almost enough to lend credence to the conspiracy theories that Trump deliberately had her plagiarize to divert attention from the rest of the content. Almost, because we know Trump, in reality, does things by the seat of his pants.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 19, 2016, 07:37:16 am
Killing Erdogan to create another Menderes. Coup leaders wouldn't be dumb to kill him.

Guardian article says the pilot tricked then by saying they were a commercial flight. Which reminds me of Morocco... 1972, I think, where the coup plotters were actually strafing Hassan II's 727 when he took the radio himself and told them to stop, saying he had already been killed. They bought it and the coup obviously failed.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: A new party. (VOTING ON PARTY NAME) on: July 17, 2016, 03:48:57 pm
[X] NPP
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton VP news LATEST: Politico: Clinton to announce her pick on Friday in FL on: July 16, 2016, 09:22:25 pm
Historically their is little significance where a running mate is announced.
Edwards was announced in Pennsylvania
Biden was announced in Illinois
Ryan was announced in Virginia
Not sure where Palin was announced but I am fairly certain it was not in Alaska. So I would not read to much in to news that suggests Clinton will reveal her pick in Florida. Anyways I am still thinking it will be Tim Kain.   
 

On the USS Wisconsin, TBH.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: A new party. on: July 16, 2016, 05:07:20 pm
I second NPP.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What's more important: democracy, or liberalism/secularism? on: July 16, 2016, 12:57:06 pm
The second is hypothetically  better, but does not exist in the real world, outside the minds of the Thai middle-class and bone-headed Western observers of Turkey.


Also I'd pick the AKP over the military anyday. Hilarious how.many people cum over the Turkish military because they don't understand what Turks mean when they say 'secular'.

Does it even exist in the minds of the Thai middle-class other than as a cover story for preserving privilege?

You know, I once wrote a paper on this exact topic...
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What's more important: democracy, or liberalism/secularism? on: July 16, 2016, 12:55:03 pm
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Nations Secretary-General selection, 2016 on: July 16, 2016, 09:04:14 am
Working at the UN now, and Bokova still seems likely. The French will still veto anyone who doesn't speak the language. Ban seems to have tricked them on this.

On Monday they had a debate.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 15, 2016, 05:16:36 pm
Nothing concrete but lots of reports of missiles being fired at buildings. This is getting unpleasant...
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 15, 2016, 04:47:24 pm

This sounds implausible.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 15, 2016, 04:31:25 pm
https://mobile.twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/754062596169428992

Unconfirmed reports that Erdogan has fled to Moscow.

Nonsense.

Erdogan talking on television via skype on a phone screen:

20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 15, 2016, 04:28:24 pm
Why do some people seem to think that coups must always be the result of some kind of CIA plot? There are more than enough elements in Turkey who'd support outsting Erdogan.
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 15, 2016, 04:17:22 pm
Fingers crossed for it to succeed. Erdogan needs to be removed.

Are you a liberal or a democrat?
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: On-Going Military Coup in Turkey on: July 15, 2016, 03:37:27 pm
Reuters: Turkish military says in statement that military has taken over
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Akihito is abdicating on: July 14, 2016, 11:15:26 am
Is it true that members of the Imperial Family cannot so much as make a phone call without receiving permission from the Kunaicho first?

It's said they were the ones who hounded first Empress Michiko and then Crown Princess Masako into severe depression. It would be great if abdication frees the Emperor and Empress from their grasp, but I doubt it. Damn MacArthur.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: RABA Research: Clinton +12 on: July 13, 2016, 03:46:44 pm
I'm not sure if these are accurate numbers, but they're at least what the numbers should be.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton & Trump VP news LATEST: Everyone's converging on Indiana on: July 13, 2016, 03:36:55 pm
Yesterday we were 100% sure it was Gingrich. Now it's Pence again. And yet they've been reaching out to Rice and Kasich this week alone. I don't even think Trump knows who he's going to pick.
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