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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Puerto Rico election 2016 on: June 28, 2016, 08:35:37 pm
apparantly, according the Puerto Rican Speaker of NYC Council (who supports independence) has mused about running. She'd probably have to decide quick though, unless (as I suspect) it was an idle consideration.

Independence is consistently an option more popular off of the island than it is on it.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Bob McDonnell Conviction Thrown out by SOTUS on: June 27, 2016, 04:30:46 pm
Good news. The corrupt fellow gets what he deserves.

This was sort of expected. While I have no doubt McDonnell is a corrupt scumbag, he was properly convicted.

3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Pigfvcker Memorial Suppository for UK News: A Departure from EUtopia on: June 27, 2016, 04:07:52 pm
So when is this confidence voting taking place? I thought it was today. What gives?

Tomorrow. At 2pm, I think.
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: June 2016 Federal Election on: June 25, 2016, 09:02:54 pm
[1] Leinad/Lumine
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: June 2016 Pacific Senate Election VOTING BOOTH on: June 25, 2016, 03:57:23 pm
1. JoMCaR
2. 1184AZ
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Congressman's ad "Make America WHITE Again." Is this racism Trump's fault on: June 25, 2016, 11:36:38 am
I blame Rutherford Hayes. If we hadn't ended Reconstruction, this country might be so farther along by now.

Amen! But Andrew Johnson deserves even greater blame.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK leaves the EU... will Scotland get another referendum? on: June 24, 2016, 07:47:52 pm
Westminster would (and should) simply refuse to assent to another referendum, at least until negotiations are completed, whenever that may be. If Holyrood attempts to organize a referendum on its own and declares independence on the basis of that vote, there's more than sufficient national and international precedent from the last time a country tried to unilaterally secede from British rule to declare it illegal. And the prospect of the EU negotiating with a Scotland that has unilaterally declared independence would spook out the Spanish to such a degree that it would be a non-starter for that reason alone.

Heck, I'm willing to argue that Gibraltar is more likely to become an independent Commonwealth Realm sooner than Scotland would become independent. Or, at least, that's how it should be.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Does the UK actually leave the EU in the next 3 years? on: June 24, 2016, 07:35:07 pm
Note that the referendum was not legally binding. The government is politically pledged to act on the but not constitutionally so. This means that the situation is uncertain and dependent on political considerations rather than legal ones.

It depends on when the UK government decides to notify the EU It wants to leave, triggering the 2 years negotiation period. It won't happen under Cameron apparently, so October at the earliest. Then if they decide to have new general elections it could be delayed further. And finally if negotiations start in early 2017, they will be difficult because both France and Germany will have elections and their government won't have a clear mandate. So we can imagine a scenario where the 2 years negotiation period only starts at the end of 2017.

The 'plan' (and pro-Leave Tories have said the same!) seems to be to stretch things out almost indefinitely. Christ knows with what goal.

If I were a Pro-EU Britisher I would insist on starting the process immediately. Likewise, if I were German. Long protracted negotiations will only exacerbate the uncertainty. Raus means Raus.

This would not make much sense, unless I was pro-EU in the sense that I supported the European Union in general, rather than Britain being in the EU. I would imagine the latter type of person would also prefer if the process dragged on without any fixed end date, which could only make an actual exit less likely as time went on-- which would be exactly what I want, no?

Virtually no one claims that the process can be completed in 3 years. The minimum date according to Liam Fox is 2019; Tusk has said 7 years, and people consider that to be wildly unrealistic. The only way it would happen is if the British government invoked Article 50 in the next year and, as would be the likely result, was kicked out two years later with negotiations still very, very, very far from being complete. This is the kind of worst-case scenario that I imagine only Nigel Farage or someone actively wishing to do harm to the UK-- eg, Nicola Sturgeon or, apparently, ag-- would be willing to let occur.

I can't imagine there not being an inter-party consensus to not invoke Article 50 until the country was "ready" to leave; whatever that ends up meaning, it probably won't happen within the next 3 years. Since the EU can't actually do until Article 50 is invoked, except for possibly expelling Britain (which, if that's actually possible, presumably would require the unanimous support of the other members, which definitely is impossible), I'm pretty sure that no, the UK will not leave the EU within the next 3 years. IF it ultimately ends up leaving I'm split as to whether it will even happen within the next ten years.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 24, 2016, 07:08:24 pm
LibDems should run in the next election on Europe.
To what end? Vote for us and we'll stop the exit? Can't see that going down too well, now that Brexit is decided I don't see a single issue libdem can run on

I actually have a question relating to this very point.

Imagine a snap election is held in the near future. Assume it is more or less a single-issue election on how to manage Brexit, that I was/am firmly in the Remain camp, and  that the options are a Conservative Party led by Boris Johnson or similar (as "similar" as one can be to Boris Smiley) in regards to their stance on an actual Brexit being ultimately unclear, the Lib Dems with a Tim Farron pledging to "still make the case for Britain’s future with Europe, as millions of people voted for it" (as he said today), and a Labour either still led by Corbyn, or by a more vocally pro-EU figure?

For whom I vote? Would it not best to vote for the Tories, given Boris' apparent belief that the referendum could be used as a bargaining tool to extract more concessions for Brussels, rather than a Labour led by someone more likely to simply fold over and accept Brussels' terms, or by a Corbyn whose... well I can't really say what they'd be. I don't know.

I mean, my views on the referendum are clear: this is a terrible result, and the Leave side ran a fact-free, Trump-esque campaign. But it would seem that the party least likely to treat the result as binding-- aside from a hypothetical pro-EU Lib-Lab coalition that took its election as a mandate to nullify the referendum result-- are the Conservatives. I'm genuinely unsure.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: June 24, 2016, 05:04:46 pm
The question is, who will be the leaders. Cameron is gone, Corbyn is facing a major rebellion, which he isn ot looking very likely to survive. Hopefully, replacements will emerge fast.

Really hoping for a LibDem resurgence.

Johnson or Gove/McDonnell will be the leaders, I'm nearly certain

I would think Theresa May should not be discarded.

I second this. Johnson will probably not survive the selection process by the MPs. Keep in mind that a majority of Tory MPs backed remain. Also keep in mind that with his expansive patronage network (because that's what it is) George Osborne could, if he wanted to run, still probably muster enough support to make the runoff. Of course, he'd be roundly thrashed at that point, if he actually ran, but the point is that he retains considerable of influence amongst MPs and will thus be a key player in the leadership race.

Ultimately my hunch would be that the next leader will either be a soft remain frontbencher like May or Javid, or some unknown backbencher or junior minister, quite possibly linked to Osborne's network and related circles like the Free Enterprise Group. This would mean Patel, Raab, Kwarteng, and so forth (even though none of those are exactly unknowns), all of whom backed leave yet are connected to that network.

Indeed the more I think about it, the more possible George Osborne somehow managing to emerge as a winner in all this seems...

EDIT: Okay, no one's mentioned Kwesi Kwarteng, but he'd be exactly the kind of dark horse people are talking about. And not only is he a fellow Ghanaian, but I actually think he's actually a nephew of one of my "uncles". I suppose it's too late to try and get to know him now, if anything were to actually happen...
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum 2017? on: June 24, 2016, 05:47:46 am
If Brexit wins, I hope Scotland becomes independent. They want to be In and should be.

The EU couldn't give us even tacit support in 2014 as we were part of the UK (and Spain's itchiness when it comes to it's own issues) I do not think this will be the case this time. This will be helpful.

The EU vindictively campaigning to dismember a former member state would be a very foolish thing to do, which would spook pretty much every country, both inside and out of the European Union.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 24, 2016, 04:19:27 am
The most important issues being the territorial integrity of the United Kingdom, this is a bad day. Even if you accept the idea that the EU is a net minus, it's not worse than having the country disintegrate.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum 2017? on: June 24, 2016, 04:06:54 am
The logical choice would be for Westminster insist this be put off until if and when a final agreement is reached with Brussels.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary: all the books Trump wrote about business seem to end at Chapter 11 on: June 22, 2016, 06:38:22 am
Haha. That staffer should get a raise.

Chances are, more likely than not, they're not actually getting paid at all.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Jill Stein qualified to be president of the United States of America? on: June 22, 2016, 06:31:54 am
People should stop including her in polls. Just because the Libertarians have found a strong ticket doesn't mean that she's suddenly also worth considering. It'd be a shame if the media declares that this is "the year of third parties" and treats the Greens and Libertarians with some kind of false equivalency when only one of them has done anything to deserve the attention.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TRUMP questions Clinton's religion on: June 22, 2016, 05:52:45 am
Now, haven't we heard that before somewhere?


Donald Trump questioned Hillary Clinton’s commitment to her Christian faith on Tuesday, saying that little is known about her spiritual life even though she’s been in the public eye for decades.

Speaking to a group of top social conservative evangelical Christian leaders at a gathering in New York City, Trump said, “we don't know anything about Hillary in terms of religion.”
“Now, she's been in the public eye for years and years, and yet there's no — there's nothing out there,” Trump said. “There's like nothing out there. It's going to be an extension of Obama but it's going to be worse, because with Obama you had your guard up. With Hillary you don't, and it's going to be worse.”
Except there is stuff out there:

Why has he worded this exactly like he did the claims about how "no one had any recollection of Obama at Columbia"?
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics (General Election: June 26) on: June 19, 2016, 02:24:09 pm
PSOE deserves bad results. Ironically, they would be in a much better shape if they lost Andalousia elections a few years ago.

... And PP deserves to dissapear into a black hole. However, if that unlikely event occurs the People's Party should have to be replaced by other thing that represents the same social groups and interests.

...which is?
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: London mayor bans "body shaming" advertising (that depicts revealing women) on: June 16, 2016, 04:13:16 pm
You'd think that right-wingers would welcome the new body standards, as they imply a renewed celebration of fertility (child-bearing is the reason that "normal" women's bodies are built the way that they are).

That implies that there's anything ideologically or morally consistent about the contemporary right (or the contemporary mainstream left tbf).

You're a good person, you know. Smiley
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Johnson/Weld get Primetime Town Hall on: June 16, 2016, 07:11:17 am
Hillary will have an absolute temper tantrum if Johnson meets the 15% threshold to be on stage.

Why? He'd draw more from Trump and the two could tag team the Donald.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is A Democratic Wave Building ? on: June 16, 2016, 06:58:45 am
It will be more 1964 than 2008, I suspect. Had we had 70s or 80s levels of partisanship, rather than today's ultra-partisanship, we'd be seriously looking at a 49/50 state landslide here. The question now is whether the Democrats will be able to effectively funnel the wave downballot. If they could they'd have a real chance at taking both the House and Senate-- and ramming through a monumental legislative agenda (if they have any sense) over the next two years, if not trying to undo gerrymandering entirely.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does the recent gun massacre of 50+ LGBT people in Orlando, Florida... on: June 15, 2016, 03:03:51 pm
Looks like Trump scored an own goal!
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Bring Guns to Nightclub on: June 13, 2016, 07:51:36 pm
Does Trump forget what happened to Plaxico Burress?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who ran the worst campaign this year (D&R) on: June 12, 2016, 01:36:10 pm
Walker and Chaffee.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mass shooting at LGBT nightclub in Orlando. on: June 12, 2016, 12:24:21 pm
I can understand that, though. Convicted felons have at least been subjected to due process.
25  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mass shooting at LGBT nightclub in Orlando. on: June 12, 2016, 12:11:37 pm
The shooter was on an FBI watch list. In December, the GOP blocked an effort to prohibit gun sales to people on the watch list.

Everyone knows that the GOP is idiotic.


No. The GOP has blood on its hands in many, many ways. They are fully responsible for allowing events like this.

Amen, brother!
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