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June 23, 2017, 12:22:26 am
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jack Reed 2020? on: June 15, 2017, 01:17:56 pm
He is the one senator I literally keep on forgetting exists.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 31, 2017, 05:14:47 pm
Is the phrase "a party of the right-wing, not a right-wing party" still accurate?
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Politico: Sanders revolution hits a rough patch on: May 31, 2017, 03:16:03 pm
The Sanders movement should organize within the DSA. If they were to get just 3% of his voters their membership would increase to 350,000 or abouts, which would be near 20-fold increase.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WaPo: Germans wonder why Trump keeps lashing out at them and not Russia/Saudi on: May 31, 2017, 03:13:56 pm
Sim, the total force numbers would refer in this case to just the Army land forces but spot on with the overall numbers, UK defines overall force (Regular+reserve components) as "UK Service Personnel."

Where are you getting that from? The chart refers to just "military personnel", so that would be inclusive of navies, air forces, etc. It's the only way those numbers would make sense; the Italian Army doesn't number 320,000 soldiers.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 31, 2017, 02:57:11 pm
1.500 soldiers arrived in Brasilia to reinforce the security, the Military Police estimated 35.000 people protesting at it's peak and the CUT estimated 200.000 people during all the day, ministries buildings have been targets of vandalism. 7 people were jailed and 49 injured.

The CUT launched the #, "#OcupaBrasilia" (#OccupyBrasilia)

The chances of this guy becoming President just shot up.



But ideally someone like Joaquim Barbosa will be selected.

He is denying there will be any military intervention almost every other day now. To me, the increasing frequency of such statements closely mimics the pattern that of the Thai army's similar assurances that they wouldn't stage a coup, which both became more frequent and increasingly ambiguous over time, and we all know how that ended.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WaPo: Germans wonder why Trump keeps lashing out at them and not Russia/Saudi on: May 31, 2017, 02:42:08 pm


Is 150,000 active duty really acurate for Britain? I had assumed their military had shrink more significantly.
Good grief. Isn't that low enough?!

I was just asking because I saw some articles say that it had fallen to 80,000 or something similar.

The British Army had 83, 560 regular soldiers and 29,940 reservists as of 1 April this year. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/597051/Monthly_service_personnel_statistics-_February_2017.pdf

So 113,500 total force. It isn't that bad due to British lack of engagement but it is lower than the 2010 142,000 total force figure.

That's just the Army. In 2014 the total for all three branches was 159,630. In 2010 it was 191,660 and in 1997 210,800.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: WaPo: Germans wonder why Trump keeps lashing out at them and not Russia/Saudi on: May 31, 2017, 09:32:45 am
Is 150,000 active duty really acurate for Britain? I had assumed their military had shrink more significantly.

i am quite intrigued by the numbers myself (especially italy) but...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3581019/The-number-active-duty-soldiers-Army-lowest-pre-World-War-II.html

Italy's numbers are likely inflated by the inclusion of the Carabineri and the Financial Police. I imagine the same applies to Spain with the Guardia Civil.

But yes, it's a shame that May has not committed to reversing the defence cuts when that would play well with the public aside from making good sense in its own right. I bet she could openly raise defence spending to 3% of GDP. Even Corbyn is slamming her for cutting defence and police spending-- boy, are British politics in a very different place than ours. Brexit should be seen as both motivation and justification for Britain asserting itself more in defence issues and increasing its capacity, making itself indispensable; the goal should be to restore the military to its 1997 levels.

The size of "peace dividend" was overestimated, full stop.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump lonely, angry after intl trip, gained weight and feeling depressed. on: May 31, 2017, 09:25:29 am
"Despite the constant negative press covr... cver... covfefe... ah, wat the hell, Im goin to bed now."

Famous covefefes of history:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S9nb88df0xY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0z1DzxAclY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hORaebYWDwk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkYzuHMcP64
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Shattered on: May 30, 2017, 04:20:41 pm
This TL feels more real than reality. I agree I don't see Trump Jr. winning in NYC, or even coming anywhere close, but it's your timeline. Keep going! I would just like to propose another headline:

DUTERTE: CLINTON "DAUGHTER OF A WHORE", LASHES OUT AT DRUG WAR CRITICISM
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Deeply disturbing (Part Neuf) on: May 30, 2017, 03:47:18 pm
What poor fellow is it this time?
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: THE ORB on: May 21, 2017, 10:02:26 pm
The irony is that it is entirely superfluous. A counter extremism centre in Saudi Arabia? If you want to fight religious extremism, get rid of this guy, the religious affairs minister (and direct descendant of Mohammed ibn Abd al-Wahhab)


12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: THE ORB on: May 21, 2017, 07:20:53 pm
It's even better in context; play "find the leader":


13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: THE ORB on: May 21, 2017, 07:16:39 pm
I don't think backing the Saudis over Iran is necessarily such a silly, wrongheaded policy (clearly a (((globalist)))), but fraternizing with them like this is just pathetic and unnecessary.

I don't think it's (((globalist))), it may be [[[globalist]]] or <<<globalist>>>.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYC General Discussion - You Hear That Giant Sucking Sound? on: May 21, 2017, 09:25:20 am
Mayor de Blasio Has a Habit of Leaving Out the Press

Quote
Since entering office back in January, Mayor de Blasio's relationship with the journalists assigned to cover him has gotten a bit testy. While it's no surprise that de Blasio became less eager to talk to the press once he no longer had an election to win, reporters say that he has established a pattern of keeping them out of proceedings entirely. In March, Capital New York's Dana Rubinstein noted that de Blasio limited coverage to pool reports — where one member of the City Hall press corps attends an event and shares their write-up with the other news outlets — much more often than his predecessor. "During his first two months in office, de Blasio has pooled print reporters at least seven times, more than Mayor Michael Bloomberg did in his final three years combined, according to a review of both mayors' public schedules," Rubinstein wrote. "If de Blasio's first two months are any indication, by the end of the year he will be on track to have pooled print reporters more than 30 times." On Tuesday, the AP pointed out that he has already hit that mark.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/05/mayor-de-blasio-has-a-habit-of-leaving-out-press.html

It appears he's not up to media scrutiny; as the Observer put it, he appears to have a "transparency problem"

This remains an issue, as an article and an editorial in the Times expressed:

Bill de Blasio's Press Problem? Don't Ask
Quote
Mayors of New York tend to be remembered for the way they wrangle with City Hall reporters, a signature battle stance that says a lot about the personality of His Honor and his relationship with the press. For Rudy Giuliani, it was the righteous snarl. For Michael Bloomberg, the smirky insult.

For Mayor Bill de Blasio, it’s looking like: the petulant whine.

It’s been evident for months that the mayor hates it when he thinks reporters at public events aren’t asking the right questions, or are being too hostile or skeptical, or are getting the facts wrong, or are trying to stray off topic when he wants to stay on, on, on.

A Mayor Raises Questions by Refusing to Take Any
Quote
After arriving in a ferryboat festooned in bunting, with big-band jazz blaring from the shoreline, Mayor Bill de Blasio made an announcement on Monday that New York City’s new ferry service would soon begin. Then he walked away.

No questions were asked; no questions were allowed.

Most other times, this would be a strange sight — the mayor of the nation’s largest city passing up a chance to pontificate and parry with the City Hall press corps. But over the past four weeks, Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat, has staunchly exhibited an approach that might be described as “don’t ask, don’t answer.”

No questions were allowed after a Police Academy graduation, beside the statue known as “Fearless Girl” in Lower Manhattan, or even at the handful of events during the mayor’s weeklong road trip on Staten Island last week.

All mayors have periods of tension with the news media, especially in New York. But by abruptly restricting the times when he will take questions, Mr. de Blasio seems to be embracing a new communications model, one that relies on social media channels, town hall exchanges with average New Yorkers and one-on-one interviews with specific reporters.

It is a model that is largely untested in New York, among the last American cities with a robust coterie of news organizations covering local government, and one that has struck many observers as a break from decades of political norms.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYC General Discussion - You Hear That Giant Sucking Sound? on: May 21, 2017, 09:15:52 am
Mayor de Blasio's Approval Rating Soars, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; He Tops Little-Known Challengers 3-1

This is just depressing. Sure, he's not as terrible as I feared he'd be, but the city is treading water. It's coasting on the achievements of the past three decades, losing its dynamism. Transit services are perceivably on the decline. It's one thing for his challengers to be relatively unknown, but approval numbers this high is another thing entirely.

Quote
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has a 60 - 34 percent job approval rating, his highest score ever, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is a 10-percentage point jump since a 50 - 42 percent approval in a February 28, 2017, survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The February score was de Blasio's first positive job approval rating in a year.

New York City voters say 57 - 35 percent that de Blasio deserves to be reelected, also the highest score ever.

White voters still disapprove 55 - 39 percent of the job the mayor is doing, but approval among black voters is 80 - 12 percent, with Hispanic voter approval at 70 - 27 percent.

De Blasio buries two declared Republican challengers by margins of 3-1:
63 - 21 percent over Paul Massey;
64 - 21 percent over State Assembly member Nicole Malliotakis.
New York City voters give de Blasio a 58 - 34 percent favorability rating. His Republican opponents are little known, as 81 percent don't know enough about Massey to form an opinion of him and 84 percent don't know enough about Malliotakis.

This is despite a serious recent pay-for-play scandal, in which he avoided charges but racked up $11 million in legal fees, even though one prosecutor said  he"acted on behalf of donors seeking favors from the city," while the other said that some of their practices appeared to violate “the intent and spirit” of the law. He's alternately tried to pay off the bills with contributions (more ethical problems, yay!) or with public funds.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 18, 2017, 02:38:51 pm
Temer has just denied he's resigning. However, the tapes will probably be made public very soon (perhaps today) and there's no way he'll survive to that.

Temer must be listening to this right now.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 18, 2017, 01:51:10 pm
The chances of this guy becoming President just shot up.



But ideally someone like Joaquim Barbosa will be selected.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Brazil Topic on: May 18, 2017, 01:39:11 pm
Temer is resigning-- already?! I can't believe it, but I envy Brazil's politics right now.

Fora Temer! Fora Trump!
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump revealed classified information to Russian foreign minister and ambassador on: May 15, 2017, 06:14:13 pm
Also I am baffled that he would do this in a meeting he knows that is widely monitored. This is with the Russians. Is this man that incompetent truly?

Yes!
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 on: May 14, 2017, 08:23:53 pm
Kurz has officially been elected as leader of the OeVP.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 on: May 14, 2017, 10:38:35 am
For once, I do want to talk about Austria, as it moves inexorably towards having a 30-year-old Chancellor. The potential for a very personalistic campaign and a centralized party is definitely interesting. You have my attention... Smiley
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Who could serve as caretaker president with bipartisan support? on: May 14, 2017, 10:30:42 am
Replace Rosenstein with Bharara, probably.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump vs Zuckerberg vs Kasich on: May 11, 2017, 04:04:33 pm
Kasich/Huntsman, in my sleep!
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Who could serve as caretaker president with bipartisan support? on: May 11, 2017, 02:26:10 pm
So I bothered to make an entire hypothetical caretaker cabinet. As technocratic and corporate as you'd expect it to be, although I feel there ought to be a few more academics and a few less CEOs in this. I'm unsure whether to swap Sandberg (who I'm not at all crazy about) and Whitman:

Acting President: Robert M. Gates (R->I)
Acting Vice President: Sheryl Sandberg (D->I)

Secretary of State: Jon M. Huntsman Jr. (R)/Richard N. Haass (R->I)
Secretary of Defense: James Mattis (I)*
Secretary of the Treasury: Laurence D. Fink (D)
Attorney-General: Rod Rosenstein (I)**
Secretary of Commerce: Kenneth Chenault (D)
Secretary of Education: Michelle Rhee (D)
Secretary of Energy: Ash Carter (D)
Secretary of the Interior: Peter Fitzgerald (R)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Patricia Harris (I?)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Olympia Snowe (R->I)
Secretary of Transportation: Elaine Chao (R)*
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Sloan D. Gibson (I?)
Secretary of Agriculture: Rosalind G. Brewer (I?)
Secretary of Labor: Gordon H. Smith (R)
Secretary of Homeland Security: John F. Kelly (I)*

Ambassador to the United Nations: Meghan O'Sullivan (I?)
National Security Adviser: (Lt. Gen.) H.R. McMaster (I)*
Director of National Intelligence: John O. Brennan (I)
Director of the National Economic Council:  Meg Whitman (R->I)

*remaining in office (if not already dismissed)
**conditional on performance as Deputy AG
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Who could serve as caretaker president with bipartisan support? on: May 11, 2017, 01:37:32 pm
Yes. A very big if-- almost absurdly so. Really, I just wanted an excuse to bump the thread.
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