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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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Pages: 1 ... 123 124 125 126 127 [128] 129 130 131 132 133 ... 449
3176  General Politics / Book Reviews and Discussion / Re: Capital in the 21st Century on: May 01, 2014, 12:38:04 am
Everyone tells me it's garbage.
3177  General Politics / Economics / Re: PRC GDP/capita in 2012 at the Prefecture level on: May 01, 2014, 12:16:23 am
PPP comparisons are useless. You can't adjust the price of international inputs- imported machinery or a ticket from San Francisco to Beijing, particularly in an export-oriented economy, the utility of PPP comparisons is virtually nil. The Chinese economy remains about half the size of the American.

Imports are never counted anyway in GDP- they subtract from it. And internationally traded goods are not price-adjusted for PPP calculations anyhow. That's a common mistake people make when critiquing PPP adjustments. Price index deviations are solely result of weighted non-tradable goods surveyed at different prices.

Well of course imports are subtracted from GDP. That's obvious.
3178  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Palin soldiers on as diminished figure on: May 01, 2014, 12:06:16 am
If she wanted to, she could easily parlay all this into a cool few dozen million (my preferred sum is $27.5 million), invested wisely, and live out her life in splendid semi obscurity, "writing" a few web columns and appearing as a Fox talking head. It would be far more lucrative and graceful.

You are forgetting about taxes. Roll Eyes

Yes, she would pay taxes..? I don't know what there is to forget about them. What point are you trying to make?
3179  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Happy May Day! on: April 30, 2014, 11:20:36 pm
Hilariously, today is also the "surf and turf" dinner at the dining hall. Absolute decadence, how very proletarian.
3180  General Politics / Economics / Re: PRC GDP/capita in 2012 at the Prefecture level on: April 30, 2014, 06:33:34 pm
PPP comparisons are useless. You can't adjust the price of international inputs- imported machinery or a ticket from San Francisco to Beijing, particularly in an export-oriented economy, the utility of PPP comparisons is virtually nil. The Chinese economy remains about half the size of the American.
3181  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Spot the errors on: April 30, 2014, 06:26:37 pm
3182  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Anthony Foxx asks Congress to end ban of tolls on interstate highways on: April 30, 2014, 11:55:24 am
I can get behind this, but only on the assumption that it would ultimately lead to more investment in public transit.

I agree completely. Particularly high-speed rail.

We should really look into abolishing public transit fees altogether.

...and you just had to.
3183  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy birthday, BushOklahoma! on: April 30, 2014, 12:14:52 am
Thank you everybody for the kind wishes.  I had a really good day at home this morning and at work this evening.  Now, I'm ready to really get into my 33rd year (aka age 32).

A turn of phrase only you could think of. Tongue
3184  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How much money would you need to not work? on: April 29, 2014, 10:30:00 pm
Now, how to spend this time? Well I agree with many of you that idleness would eventually pay its toll on me. It would drive me mad, honestly. Eventually, I'd start going to the gym ($2,340/yr at Equinox, an externality of of the food expense, I suppose) But I can manage directed idleness- reading intensively on development matters (which I'd quite like to approximate in the real, working world)  counts. So I'd spend a lot of this time reading, sitting at various cafes reading lots of books. A lot of time at museums (~$25 a visit). So we're down to about $70 left in my pocket. I might buy a book. In the evening, I might plop my rear end every now and then at the opera ($190) or at the Philharmonic ($118), which would really set me back $5000 a year, or $6 a day, if I made a habit of it (which I would). There would be the occasional bar or club ($35), and I might entertain once or twice a month, which could set me back $1500 a month (okay, let's deduct that somehow from the grocery, dining, and wine budget). In turn, I'd attend quite a few parties, both "charitable" and plain social.

I could join a few nonprofit boards, get involved in a bit of political activism or fundraising (obviously not running for anything but helping out people I like), attend business conferences. Obviously, I'd spend a lot of time travelling. I feel there's enough world to not get bored of it.

So that is how I would spend my life. At least for the first ten years. Afterwards things change substantially, in terms of both lifestyle and financially.
3185  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How much money would you need to not work? on: April 29, 2014, 08:54:49 pm
Okay, how much would the apartment renovation cost? I'm cited a figure of $300/sq ft for a high-end renovation. And using my estimate of $2440 square feet for the apartment, works out to $750,000 in total. Yikes! Let's assume we're not gutting the place, throw in some handwavium, and get that down to $200. It rounds up to $500,000. Now, spread over 10 years, and with 75% written off to the gains (that is, it will be made up in returns from the investments) that's $25,000 per year. So I now have $128,840 to spend on everything else. I could spend $10,000 on various forms of insurance. Let's round up to $120,000.

The USDA says a "liberal" foot budget for male my age would cost $84.50 a week. I'm going to round that up to $100, which doesn't seem unreasonable given this sample. At the very least, I'd go through several jugs of orange juice, and those are like $8 here. That's $5,200 a year.

Now, I'm going to be eating at restaurants a lot. Seven times a week. Now let's assign $325 a week for that- once a week at a $50 per person place (and I'll pay for my guest, since I'm so rich), plus wine... oh to hell with it, let's add 50% for wine and say $400 per week. Should be more than enough to cover dinner at places like Fulton (where my dad and I once had, to our lasting mortification, an $80 lunch). Note this won't get me into Per Se or Del Posto or Momofuku Ko or anything like that.  $26,000 a year. Yikes. But we're still at $93,660.

So right now, I have food in my stomach, roofs over my head, and the related upkeep. Nothing will fall apart or starve to death. Now let's assume I spend $25,000 on plane tickets- business, not first class. An additional $20,000 on hotel rooms. Am I over budgeting this? I think so. So we're less $45,000, for just over $48,000 left. If we give $25,000 to charity, $10,000 to clothes (a lot would be forwards spending on building a wardrobe, or something like that), $7,500 on wine, that leaves us with $6,163.63 for everything else... no, that's not right. Now, let's cut back on the dining, write off the renovation completely as "investment", skimp a bit on house maintenance, and we're at $33,763. This gives me about $92 a day to buy anything which isn't food, airfare, or a hotel. There's enough to fit in a Range Rover ($91,254) for the second house with 50% paid over ten years (the other half being written off into investments).

So there. I don't see it as overly conspicuous.
 
3186  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How much money would you need to not work? on: April 29, 2014, 06:07:26 pm
Anybody who would "need" $27 million and two houses in order to not work is obviously aiming for absurd levels of conspicuous consumption. Your star struck attitude toward acquiring material things is wholly incompatible with financial stability. In any case, don't let the idea of money or titles define you as a person. Despite what Don Draper wants you to believe, who you are has nothing to do with what you own.

Or maybe I just place a high value on work? If you read my original, I am aiming for $250,000 per year for 80 years, not some astronomical sum... let me give you the breakdown.

Let's clear up the living situation. So, I have secured a decent apartment in New York, say, this one. Not too bad, spacious living room for entertaining, and the dining room, but the kitchen needs some work, and there is some redecoration and reconfiguration I'd like to do (namely turning the two staff rooms into an office). So let's go to the second house for a minute. That can be secured, with $275,000 to spare, but let's pretend that money doesn't exist for budgeting purposes. It's very historic and elegant, so it's perfect.

Okay, so we've paid for two houses in cash. However, I face $4,722 per month in maintenance  fees at the apartment. This is $56,664 per year, over 20% of my income. Going by the estimate that you spend roughly 2% of an older house's value on upkeep, an equal $50000 will have to be spent on maintaining the second house. I am now spending $108,660 on the rights, meaning I have $140,000 to be spent on everything else. And I haven't even started to renovate the apartment. And the listing says its "waiting for the special update to meet your specific needs". Oh dear.
3187  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever had a dry socket? on: April 29, 2014, 05:21:27 pm
I don't even know what that is...
3188  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How much money would you need to not work? on: April 29, 2014, 05:09:53 pm
It deeply hurts my feelings to admit that Torie is the voice of reason in this thread, but here we are. Simfan, you can either have the flashy lifestyle or money. This timeless truth applied even to the 19th century aristocrats you so desperatly want to emulate. Many of them had to marry into new money just to keep their lifestyle afloat. If you want to get ahead, live beneath your means.

Read below:

I mean, lets take my budget... you could live well, but like a duke or maybe a marquess, not quite a King.

After saving up a healthy emergency fund, which you need to keep in something boring and liquid, you can begin to think about investments.

Read below:

The question is then, what sort of financial approach do I want to take? Do I want to expand my wealth or do I simply want security? The fact is I can afford a relative level of insecurity- if I lose everything I can sell the houses (or a house), have a few million on me, and go to work. So let's put a small percentage- 10% or $2 million- in low risk muni bonds and whatnot.

At your young age, you can afford to be primarily in equities, but, of course, it needs to be diversified. Buy a Vanguard Index fund and increase your holdings over time, but do NOT fall into the trap of frequent buying and selling.

Read below:

Ideally, most of that would go into index funds like the Vanguard ETF and whatnot, say, $5 million.

I don't see where you're getting the idea "flashy conspicuous consumption" is what I'm aiming for here.
3189  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Report: 4% of death row inmates likely innocent on: April 29, 2014, 05:03:33 pm
Few fates can be more depressing than sitting innocently on death row because the state chooses to facilitate another's wrongful revenge. 

I really don't know how it's justifiable rationally. I mean, except for perhaps acts of genocide or war crimes, I don't see how certainty can be achieved.
3190  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: LA Clippers Owner Donald Sterling under fire for taped racist comments to GF on: April 29, 2014, 04:59:02 pm
He's always been hated by the NBA and the owners in general and has a long history of being detrimental to the league.  He'll make out like a bandit,  of course.  He paid 12.5 million for the team in 1981 and it's estimated that he could get above $1 billion for it now.

A billion? I saw a valuation of $550 million. Quite the return.
3191  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How much money would you need to not work? on: April 29, 2014, 04:24:53 pm
How did I get the money? A check fell from the sky, written out to me. Attached was a handy little note saying it was tax free (the initial sum, not any future gains).

As for the ROIs I don't think I was overly off. The money I put in bonds was there simply to increase along interest. Perhaps my 9% projection is somewhat optimistic considering averages (I did say the Vanguard Index fund produced 7% nominal, so 4% real ROI), but the idea Africa isn't particularly investable isn't quite correct. There's at least one index fund (with money in Nigeria, Kenya, and some other countries) that has produced 12%+  nominal ROI in the past ten years. I believe that trend will continue if not accelerate.

Very little of what I would have- zero in the "minimum amount" scenario- would be held in bonds. In the "life sum" scenario the only thing I'd have in bonds would be the outlays for the next few years' expenses. And ultimately I am expecting 5-6% real ROI- not overly different from you.
3192  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How much money would you need to not work? on: April 29, 2014, 04:13:08 pm
Also, I'm curious to see what the "minimum" amount would be, if keeping the same desired annual income and investment strategy, that is, the minimum amount that would last you eighty years or grow in perpetuity with a $250,000 income, 9% nominal annual return to investment, and 2.67% inflation, depositing all your money into various securities and withdrawing $250,000 per year.

With $2.5 million, I run out after 16 years, in 2030.

With $3.0 million, I run out after 23 years, in 2037.

With $3.5 million, I run out after 36 years, in 2050.

With $4.0 million, I run out... well, actually, I don't run out. So it needs to be somewhere between $3.5-$4 million. I find to be somewhere around $3.95. So the "real" minimum I would need is not actually $20 million but only $3.95 million (less the houses). But let's stick with our figure. I like it better.
3193  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sage Garden on: April 29, 2014, 03:39:44 pm
"The Muslim" didn't phase me (JCL has been prattling on about "the Musselman" for a while), but I guffawed at "the Western man."

The Musselman? Tongue
3194  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How much money would you need to not work? on: April 29, 2014, 03:20:43 pm
I mean, lets take my budget... you could live well, but like a duke or maybe a marquess, not quite a King.

First let's look at the total lump sum sitting nicely in the bank. $20,000,000. To be spent over 80 years, $250,000. Assuming that inflation in the next century averages to 2.67% per year, that $250,000, forty years from now, will need to be nearly $720,000. (Fun fact- in 2102, $100,000 will be over a $1,000,000). So we need a minimum 3% return to stay afloat.

The question is then, what sort of financial approach do I want to take? Do I want to expand my wealth or do I simply want security? The fact is I can afford a relative level of insecurity- if I lose everything I can sell the houses (or a house), have a few million on me, and go to work. So let's put a small percentage- 10% or $2 million- in low risk muni bonds and whatnot.

 That leaves $18 million. I get an advisor and put it in the market, for the most part. Ideally, most of that would go into index funds like the Vanguard ETF and whatnot, say, $5 million. The market has shown 9%-11% returns per year over the last century, and the fund 7% over the last decade.

Another amount would be put in more risky funds, largely me putting my money where my mouth is and investing in Africa, which seems to have produced good returns over the past decade and I believe will only get better. Combined with emerging markets, energy funds, this should take up $8 million. This leaves me with $5 million, which will be invested directly into various stocks, like the funds, with emphasis on energy and emerging markets.

Assuming an 11.5% rate of return per year, this will mean that my $18 million will grow to $53 million in a decade, when adjusted for inflation at my rate, this is $41 million in today's dollars. So I will have doubled my wealth! Mixing investments throughout my life (Africa cannot grow like this forever), a nominal 9% and a real 5% annual ROI should be possible. Just because I am not working does not mean my money cannot. Cheesy
3195  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What were some misconceptions you had about the world when you were a child? on: April 29, 2014, 01:59:21 pm
For a while, I was under the impression that Americans admired Mexico because of its ancient civilization and its beautiful colonial architecture.

Well, some of us do. Smiley
3196  Forum Community / Forum Community / How much money would you need to not work? on: April 29, 2014, 11:12:36 am
That is, what is the minimum amount of money you would need in order to quit your present job (or never work), if you were to, say, inherit or otherwise come into that sum?

For me, $27.5 million. Setting $5 million aside for a primary residence (which wouldn't get me particularly far in New York, anyway), and $2.5 million for a second house (this would seem to do nicely, very nicely) the remainder would be enough for me to live with $250,000 a year, which seems sufficient- particularly without mortgage or tax, it's like earning $450,000.

What about you?
3197  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Palin soldiers on as diminished figure on: April 29, 2014, 10:45:55 am
If she wanted to, she could easily parlay all this into a cool few dozen million (my preferred sum is $27.5 million), invested wisely, and live out her life in splendid semi obscurity, "writing" a few web columns and appearing as a Fox talking head. It would be far more lucrative and graceful.
3198  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What were some misconceptions you had about the world when you were a child? on: April 28, 2014, 10:34:38 pm
Yeah, I used to think that when you deposited money in the bank you were actually putting the money in a vault (well, safety deposit box) somewhere, so I was utterly baffled as to how ATMs worked. I eventually came to the conclusion that ATMs were a sort of loaning system- that you could withdraw what you pleased and some guy would come later to your individual box and physically take out the amount you had withdrawn.

Later I was able to conceptualise some mechanism that allowed one to note the amount of money in the (physical) account, thus removing the loaning aspect (you couldn't withdraw more than your balance), but still keeping the idea that your money was physically in a box somewhere. And that a check involved someone going to the payer's bank account, taking the cash, and physically depositing it in the payee's bank account.

I actually don't think I ever "realised" I was wrong about this, I just eventually dropped the idea that a physical account existed.
3199  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Sam Spade on: April 28, 2014, 10:22:38 pm
Seems a little douchey. Can't say I immediately respect someone who waltzes in with a holier than thou attitude and casually drops that he "makes over six figures" but that it "goes nowhere in NYC."

Although I guess me calling someone douchey is a bit of a kettle/pot scenario.

Well yeah, here, it's absolutely nothing to write home about.
3200  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Forum T-Shirt on: April 28, 2014, 07:00:44 pm
I have no reason to ever wear, much less buy, such a thing.
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