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July 27, 2016, 09:53:12 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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76  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Johnson/Weld get Primetime Town Hall on: June 16, 2016, 07:11:17 am
Hillary will have an absolute temper tantrum if Johnson meets the 15% threshold to be on stage.

Why? He'd draw more from Trump and the two could tag team the Donald.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is A Democratic Wave Building ? on: June 16, 2016, 06:58:45 am
It will be more 1964 than 2008, I suspect. Had we had 70s or 80s levels of partisanship, rather than today's ultra-partisanship, we'd be seriously looking at a 49/50 state landslide here. The question now is whether the Democrats will be able to effectively funnel the wave downballot. If they could they'd have a real chance at taking both the House and Senate-- and ramming through a monumental legislative agenda (if they have any sense) over the next two years, if not trying to undo gerrymandering entirely.
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does the recent gun massacre of 50+ LGBT people in Orlando, Florida... on: June 15, 2016, 03:03:51 pm
Looks like Trump scored an own goal!
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Bring Guns to Nightclub on: June 13, 2016, 07:51:36 pm
Does Trump forget what happened to Plaxico Burress?
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who ran the worst campaign this year (D&R) on: June 12, 2016, 01:36:10 pm
Walker and Chaffee.
81  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mass shooting at LGBT nightclub in Orlando. on: June 12, 2016, 12:24:21 pm
I can understand that, though. Convicted felons have at least been subjected to due process.
82  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mass shooting at LGBT nightclub in Orlando. on: June 12, 2016, 12:11:37 pm
The shooter was on an FBI watch list. In December, the GOP blocked an effort to prohibit gun sales to people on the watch list.

Everyone knows that the GOP is idiotic.

Stop.

No. The GOP has blood on its hands in many, many ways. They are fully responsible for allowing events like this.

Amen, brother!
83  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Mass shooting at LGBT nightclub in Orlando. on: June 12, 2016, 11:31:54 am
https://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1877081_Shooting_at_Pulse_Nightclub_in_Orlando__Florida.html
84  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kasich signs medical marijuana bill. on: June 12, 2016, 08:51:54 am
I'd preferably ban both marijuana and tobacco, actually.

Just an fyi,  i heard directly from my state representative that the reason they passed this was overwhelmingly to avoid a more expansive version , possibly outright legalization , being passed by initiative in November . as the major legalization organizations have pulled out of the state, it seems to have worked.

So basically the marijuana version of civil unions? I can get behind this.
85  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Kasich signs medical marijuana bill. on: June 11, 2016, 01:09:55 pm
Another MMJ bill that prohibits smoking and only allows oils or edibles to be sold, so no actual plant material. Honestly, that is so stupid and a cop-out that lawmakers (particularly Republicans) have latched on to. Why continue to prohibit smoking? This is just another remnant of "stupid tough on crime" views. I will give this bill credit for the decent "accepted conditions" list and some other things, but still, they watering these bills down for no good reason at all.

I really can't wait for boomers to be marginalized in politics as Millennials take over. We can finally start doing the things these old farts are too stubborn to do.

Well this is an actual medical Marijuana bill rather than a backdoor legalization, so yes.
86  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Obama declare the Armenian genocide a genocide? on: June 11, 2016, 01:03:42 pm
Genocide denial unites both Erdogan's Neo-Ottomanists and Kemalists.

I would rather see him recognize that the Greek city of Constantinople has been under Turkish occupation since 1453. Of course, that's not going to happen either. Wink

Is this some wacky joke or are you seriously pledging support for Golden Dawn policy?

Ethnic cleansing, really.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 11, 2016, 10:32:08 am
Or recognise any regional difference within England that taken seperately could also have 'swung' the result), we may start to 'feel the hate' a little up here which is probably a bigger catalyst for changing attitudes to independence than Scotland voting in, but being taken out.

You just have to have it both ways, don't you?
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Without the 22nd Amendment, which presidents would have run for a third term? on: June 10, 2016, 04:11:48 pm
It is one of the great ironies of history that the 22nd Amendment, introduced by the Republicans to forestall the possibility of another FDR being elected for four terms, has until now served to scupper the potential ambitions of Republican presidents; that is changing, with Clinton and Obama ending their terms relatively popular.

But I actually don't think any President since would have run for a third term even if they could have. I imagine someone's asked this question before, and I even wonder if I have myself, but I'm curious as to what you think. Here's my breakdown:

Truman-- was able to run again, chose not to
Eisenhower-- Health issues probably would have preempted a bid for a third term, also would have probably simply been disinterested in another term; from what I've read, in 1956 he already was happy enough to leave most of the campaigning to Nixon.
Kennedy--Assassinated
LBJ-- Declined reelection
Nixon-- Resigned
Ford-- Lost reelection
Carter-- Lost reelection
Reagan-- Even if you accept the official position that his Alzheimers was undiagnosed until after he left office, there were already clear health issues recognized semi-publicly which would have ruled out another term, if not by his administration's own admission, then at least by public opinion
Bush the Elder-- Lost reelection
Clinton-- Admittedly, he left office popular, but this seems to me to have at least partly been a sort of early post-presidency popularity boost. His absence from much of the 2000 campaign testifies to the degree to which many, even in his own party, saw him as a liability rather than an asset. Heck, going by how they talk about Bill today it's clear many in Clinton-land still see him as a liability. So I suspect that any desire to run again would have been gently scuppered if for no the reason than to prevent him from destroying Hillary's chances at advancing her own political career.
Bush the Younger-- Obviously far too unpopular to even think about it. Probably would have been primaried had he tried, actually.
Obama-- From his public comments he has zero desire to stay in office for even a day after January 20, 2017-- as evidenced by interviews and especially his speech to the African Union. However I fully concede that these comments are made in a world where a third term is an impossibility and thus probably hasn't been seriously considered. He would have probably felt at least a little obligated to step aside for Hillary, especially considering 2008, but maybe explicit demand for a third Obama term would have pushed Biden to run on a continuity platform. Still, I think Obama would stay out. But he could have been urged to make a comeback in 2020 after Hillary's approvals tank (remember: they're already in the tank)

Ultimately, I believe, the two term custom would have retained considerable weight in presidential decisions, even after FDR broke the tradition-- it would have (and is) probably been rationalized as an exception given the dual exceptional circumstances of the Great Depression. There'd be something of a standard requiring presidents to "prove" that circumstances justified their bid for a third term. If nothing else, the fact that of all the Presidents who could have done so, just two sought third terms.

But what do you think?
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET) on: June 07, 2016, 07:05:40 am
guys if the average lifespan of americans is 79 years than everyone older than 75 shouldn't be allowed to cast a vote because they will be dead for part of the term

Huh
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump campaign: Female Judges might not be capable of judging Trump either on: June 07, 2016, 06:46:11 am
I knew this would happen! Now someone just needs to ask him the logical conclusion-- "Do you believe only white men can judge you fairly?"
91  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Coronation of Edward I Simfan, King of Arizona on: June 03, 2016, 11:58:53 pm
It would be impolite to reject the offer of the throne, and furthermore violate my fundamental convictions (as a monarchist) to inhibit the establishment of a monarchical form of government. My role as (presumed) monarch is immaterial.

Regardless, I remain loyal to the government of the Pacific Region and intend to assist in the transition to the Western Region, as I have long stated. .
92  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: The Kingdom of Arizona v. Atlasia, the Western Region, et. al on: June 03, 2016, 11:48:39 pm
It would be impolite to reject the offer of the throne, and furthermore violate my fundamental convictions (as a monarchist) to inhibit the establishment of a monarchical form of government. My role as (presumed) monarch is immaterial.

Regardless, I remain loyal to the government of the Pacific Region and intend to assist in the transition to the Western Region, as I have long stated. .
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: PAUL RYAN ENDORSES TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT on: June 03, 2016, 06:42:16 am
Sad!
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: Trump University judge's heritage an "absolute conflict of interest" on: June 03, 2016, 06:37:58 am
Trump's argument seems to be predicated on the assumption he is against Mexicans as a group? Is that an assumption he really wants to say aloud?
95  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did Trump throw a "tantrum" during veteran's press conference? on: June 01, 2016, 02:15:41 pm
"You're a sleaze because you know the facts, and you know the facts well.
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton is literally disqualified from being President on: May 30, 2016, 08:33:42 am
There's an interesting discussion of this Clause's potential consequences on the Volokh Conspiracy. The consensus seems to be that the relevant statue cannot apply to the Presidency, as Congress lacks the authority to add requirements beyond what is in the Constitution.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics on: May 24, 2016, 02:29:26 pm
But how is the road map to independence coming along? It seems as if things have stalled due to the broader electoral situation.
98  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Yes, prudery has ran amuck here on: May 24, 2016, 07:29:04 am
There is absolutely nothing wrong with being prudish.
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: World's most demented electoral system? on: May 23, 2016, 11:35:43 am
Because it is a federal republic with elected provincial parliaments who have constitutionally guaranteed powers? I.e., the opposite of being unitary and centralized?
100  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Life peerage (UK) on: May 23, 2016, 10:43:56 am
You could theoretically have life viscountcies, earldoms, etc., as far as I'm aware. I'm sure it's been done at least once before in the past 950 years-- not including peerages created in the knowledge that the title would die with the first holder-- but considering the primary point of life peerages is to enable their holders to sit in the Lords, they would be somewhat redundant for that purpose.

If the objective was to honor the grantee and barony was regarded as insufficient for that purpose you could always just create a normal hereditary peerage (but you would need to append a life peerage for them to sit in the Lords). The awarding of hereditary peerages seems to have stopped almost by accident-- I'm quite certain Thatcher (who resumed awarding them after Wilson stopped doing so) would have been given the customary earldom for retiring Prime Ministers (and become a Countess) if not for the fact the title would pass to her son Mark, who was by then already regarded with suspicion. They likely gave Denis Thatcher a baronetcy to compensate somewhat, which has left enough people scratching their heads, wondering when Mark Thatcher was knighted, as is. The custom was to name the title after the PM's constituency, meaning she would have been Countess of Finchley.

Alas, she never was never given an earldom, so the last non-royal to be granted a hereditary peerage remains Harold Macmillan, in 1984. Removing hereditary peers from the Lords could have conceivably made granting them easier since they no longer conferred parliamentary privileges, but they are yet to make a comeback. Which--and this should come as a surprise to absolutely no one-- is in my view a shame. I suspect Blair would, by now, be open towards accepting one if it was offered. Wink Blair would be Earl of Sedgefield, Brown likely Earl of Kirkcaldy (where he grew up), and I'm not sure about Major, as they're already Earls of Huntingdon (17 of them, to be exact). The Spanish are still in the habit of granting titles, and that's after not having a monarchy for 50 years! (Although Franco awarded some himself; Dali was made a marquis)

What better way is there to honor one's accomplishments than to ensure they are honored for generations to come? Smiley
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