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April 26, 2015, 07:17:22 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should the Republicans contest ME-02? on: Today at 03:22:05 pm
They won't win ME-2 without NH.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot on: April 22, 2015, 01:54:11 pm
Romney and McCain were both very good fits for NH. Both lost the state by more than their national number. It doesn't make sense for the GOP to run expensive ads in the Boston media market and I see NH-1 flipping back to the Democrats.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: Rubio & Bush with leads against Hillary on: April 22, 2015, 01:52:24 pm
Hillary won't win by 6% nationally or more and lose FL. PPP showing her up 2-3% on Jeb and Rubio is probably the most realistic.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC National Poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 14-24 points on: April 20, 2015, 09:15:16 am
If clinton wins by half these margins it's a bloodbath for the GOP.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which of these Southern states are REALLY trending Democratic? on: April 18, 2015, 10:47:23 pm
Not sure there's a huge GOP swing going to happen among whites in western NC. A lot of Asheville area is northern retirees, that's why the margins among whites aren't as huge. A lot of other counties in western NC Obama got 35%, meaning probably 30% white vote or so. That's not far off from what Obama got in many Appalachian counties.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama approval in the states on: April 17, 2015, 06:04:25 pm
If he's 49/47 in Wisconsin it's very consistent with his 47/50 nationally.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Obama approval in the states on: April 17, 2015, 03:16:03 pm
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html?hp=t2_r#.VTFpspTF8rM

Another big mistake, comparing Obama's state approvals in firms like PPP, Quinnipiac with national ones such as Gallup, Rasmussen. You can't get a good picture with different firms.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the (hypothetical) %-results of Hillary vs. GOPers in your state/country on: April 14, 2015, 10:17:28 pm
Florida:

Clinton 50-49 Bush
Clinton 52-47 Walker

Palm Beach:

Clinton 59-40 Bush
Clinton 61-38 Walker

Hillary is a much better fit for this county than Obama.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary win a county in WV-03? on: April 13, 2015, 10:37:51 am
Nope, it will swing D but she will go from like 34% to 38% in places like McDowell. Not nearly enough.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver: 2016 is a tossup; most conventional wisdom analysis is flimsy on: April 12, 2015, 01:16:42 pm
Remember that some of these models aren't always accurate. 1988 was supposed to be close, 2000 was supposed to be a Gore blowout. I think we are more like the late 1800s in that everyone is polarized. It would help Hillary beat the fundamentals if she faces Jeb and can run on keeping a Bush out of the WH and the people who caused the economic crisis.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clintonís Calculus on Embracing Obama (NYT article) on: April 12, 2015, 12:59:36 am
Iím glad sheís going to use President Obama on the campaign trail. Learn from Al GoreĎs mistakes. Plus, let the Republicans make the mistake of thinking that because it happened to us in 2008, it'll happen to you in 2016. President Obama is sitting in far better shape at this point in his presidency than President Bush was in '07. Things could change, and if it does, then itís probably game over anyways.

Her best path to the presidency has always been to build upon the progress made over President Obamaís two terms, and to remind older voters what happened last time a Republican succeeded a Democrat in the white house.

Jeb would be perfect for that. Can't ask for a better opponent for Hillary, someone unable to take advantage of her weaknesses.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Huckabee does best against Hillary on: April 10, 2015, 02:38:43 pm
It's tough to depend on a long-term GOP majority in NC when the margins of victory in 2012, 2014 were 2 and 1.6 points. The shift in demographics by 2020 should take care of that. A GOP candidate needs at least a 5% win in NC to be winning in VA as well. Dems will take the VA/NC split from 2012 again in 2016.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary will win Colorado on: April 09, 2015, 09:53:16 pm
The latte crowd isn't exactly a prime block to vote GOP though. I could see Colorado looking like a tossup again on election day and Hillary winning it by 5 points like last time.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary isn't winning Iowa. on: April 09, 2015, 04:41:03 pm
GOP can win Iowa but they need more flips. If Virginia stays blue then Iowa may go for a losing R.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary will win Colorado on: April 09, 2015, 04:38:39 pm
I think presidential turnout patterns should help her win it, even if narrowly. Gardner ran a very strong campaign, Udall ran an awful one and yet Gardner won with only 48% in a very GOP friendly year. Dems were one state senate seat away from keeping everything in the legislature as well.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Hillary quite weak, as Paul runs best against her on: April 09, 2015, 08:43:47 am
Virginia meanwhile looks like it's continuing it's Democratic trend. Hillary by winning VA WI NV NH PA can win without Colorado Iowa Florida Ohio.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: my electoral map of April on: April 08, 2015, 05:02:27 pm
Carson is gonna beat Clinton in Connecticut!
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will the right react if this happens? on: April 08, 2015, 01:12:29 pm
I do think the national media is too focused on Ohio and Florida. If Hillary carries Virginia it puts the GOP in an impossible spot without either WI, NH or PA.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will the right react if this happens? on: April 07, 2015, 02:21:00 pm
The 2014 Senate race in Virginia leads to think it could happen. On the surface it looks like the GOP had a strong showing there, a closer look suggests otherwise. The total vote number was DOWN about 200,000 from 2006 to 2014 and yet Warner still survived despite abysmal turnout. He lost Loudoun County and barely cracked 50% in Prince William, yet still won. It's tough to see Clinton getting less than 55% in Prince William with the U.S. Census numbers. Warner ran stronger in Appalachia than Obama but it was still only something in between Obama 2008 and 2012. In other words, Warner witnessed a Democratic turnout collapse and loss of support among whites, yet still managed to pull out a victory.

Hillary can make up running worse in that area pretty easily with better turnout in the cities. Southern Virginia also looked quite similar in all the 2012, 2013, 2014 races. It is extremely inelastic and you can pretty much book Hillary for something in between 48-51% in Chesapeake, 46-48% in Dinwiddie etc. If the GOP doesn't reverse trends in Henrico, Fairfax, Hillary is winning the state.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will the right react if this happens? on: April 07, 2015, 12:18:56 pm
I think Colorado would most likely go Democratic with these states but the map is not out of the realm of probability.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will the right react if this happens? on: April 07, 2015, 12:11:44 pm
I don't think this entirely unrealistic either. Let's say the GOP improves with Hispanics and Hillary continues to play somewhat weakly in the west. Nevada's demographics make it tough for the GOP even with Hillary slipping and Rubio manages to win Colorado by a point or so. He carries Florida by a couple points, squeaks out Ohio and Iowa by a couple but falls short in Wisconsin and New Hampshire. Virginia does not have a huge number of Hispanics, it saves Hillary with white- professional women in NoVA.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / How will the right react if this happens? on: April 07, 2015, 11:56:36 am


Clinton 48.5% - 270 EV
Rubio 50%- 268 EV

Hillary wins Virginia by 3,000 votes after being down nearly the whole night. Rubio makes inroads with working class whites, wins OH, FL, CO, IA and narrowly loses WI. Virginia's Democratic trend is just too much for the GOP and Hillary pulls it out narrowly.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP-National: Hillary leads GOP by 3-9 points on: April 07, 2015, 11:47:34 am
PPP seems to be a drain on personal favorable ratings/ approvals, for both parties. Seems like 2012 voters are pretty much sticking with their side in this poll.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rothenberg Releases Initial 2016 House Ratings on: April 05, 2015, 10:02:08 pm
FL-2 seems bad for Dems but you can't forget that Hillary has a floor of 46-47% there. It's very inelastic at the Presidential level and Graham will benefit from higher black turnout than 2014 and a better year for Dems.

FL-26 should be a tossup, it went from McCain 51-49 in 2008 to 53-46 Obama in 2012. That is a clear trend, even Crist won it by over 4 points. Districts like FL 26,27 will become for the GOP what PA-12 became for Dems.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo national poll: Hillary ahead by 14% and more on: April 05, 2015, 03:11:48 pm
GOP donors think that because Jeb is moderate on immigration it means he will get the votes of independents. Most indies are not politically active and do not follow things closely if at all. Their first reaction to another Bush is "come on, are you kidding"? With Hillary the Clinton's at least have the fact that Bill is perceived as having been a good President.
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