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October 31, 2014, 04:15:34 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread on: October 30, 2014, 11:45:57 pm
The RCP average of GOP up 2.5 does seem plausible though. Still, it's surprising to see everyone downgrading Democratic seats in the house even though the national state of things and senate races haven't changed in 6 weeks.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: VA: PPP: Warner +9 on: October 30, 2014, 11:39:18 pm
Seems bad but 9 in the final weekend isn't a huge deal. I expect a county map similar to Northam vs Jackson.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread on: October 30, 2014, 03:34:56 pm
If Dems win or tie the congressional vote they sure are not losing the 12 seats that the media seems to be expecting.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-VOX Populi (R): Hick+5 on: October 30, 2014, 03:10:00 pm
Nothing from this firm should be trusted
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato: Calling the House Tossups on: October 30, 2014, 02:43:58 pm
FL-02 is complete BS.

Dems have a very strong candidate in FL-02. Remains to be seen what happens but this district also tends to give stronger support to statewide Democrats rather than national ones. Sink won it in 2010 and Crist could again this year.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC; PPP: Hagan only up one on: October 30, 2014, 01:31:15 pm
One problem for the republicans in NC is that hagan seems to be up 1-4 points in every single poll. Probably better odds than having her up 5 in some and down 3 in others.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Final Marquette poll out today! on: October 29, 2014, 12:44:25 pm
No undecided voter gives a **** about these polls. The only ones who do are partisans who decided long ago like us.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Final Marquette poll out today! on: October 29, 2014, 12:35:40 pm
Walker wouldnt be begging for money if he was up 7, up 1-2 is certainly plausible.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: Quinnipiac: Hick down by 5 on: October 29, 2014, 08:24:36 am
Hick won't tie with independents and get crushed
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The two-years and one week out prediction. on: October 28, 2014, 11:25:03 pm
I think people underestimate the damage the entire GOP has done with Latinos and how tough jeb would have it to even get to 35% there. There also is not Bush nostalgia despite GOP talking hands love for him, he does pretty much the same in polls as Christie, Paul and other more conservative possibilities against Hillary.

The economy is not great now but in 2016 it's possible Obama finally begins to get a little credit. The trend line is pretty good and people in another year may start to feel it. Hillary can run very effective ads reminding voters what W was like in 2008. Tough to see Jeb winning PA or any of the upper Midwest and I think he'd have issues in Colorado and Ohio too. Hillary isn't a great fit for Colorado but Jeb as part of a DC establishment family probably lacks appeal there either.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Upset of election night on: October 28, 2014, 11:16:33 pm
An upset has to be someone currently trailing by a solid margin in the polls or a complete unexpected. Gardner winning in Colorado is fairly expected at this point.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will the GOP re-take the mansion in Massachusetts and at least one House seat? on: October 28, 2014, 10:48:25 pm
I think Dems win MA-6, getting Tierney out of there was very helpful for their chances.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The two-years and one week out prediction. on: October 28, 2014, 03:20:08 pm


Hillary Clinton 54%  385 EV
Rand Paul 45%     153 EV
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: Siena NY-24: Maffei down 10 on: October 28, 2014, 11:19:13 am
Yeah, still with Hillary possibly winning over 60% there in 2016 I can't see Rs holding it more than a term.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Siena NY-24: Maffei down 10 on: October 28, 2014, 08:47:00 am
https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/CD241014_Crosstabs.pdf

Obama won this district by 16 in 2012 but Maffei is consistently a pretty weak candidate. If he loses this most likely Dems can recapture this one in 2016.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread on: October 27, 2014, 08:51:04 pm
For all the GOP wave talk, the R+11 poll seems to be a big outlier. Most of the recent polls are pretty much split down the middle.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Pennsylvania Governor county map on: October 27, 2014, 06:27:50 pm
Yeah, I am saying Corbett would win single digits in Lancaster. That one isn't ready to flip. Wolf will win both Chester and Berks barring a huge collapse.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-21: Siena: Stefanik easily flips district on: October 27, 2014, 06:03:52 pm
NY-21 is actually trending Democratic, Obama did better in 2012 than 2008. With Hillary on the ballot I expect it to be one of the top DCCC targets in 2016.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-PPP: All tied up on: October 27, 2014, 05:00:48 pm
Georgia Dems will have some happier days soon but just a plurality on election night is a solid goal for now.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary over Jeb in Florida? on: October 27, 2014, 01:42:24 pm
A lot of NYers in southeast Florida can only help Hillary. I can see her rather easily running ahead of Obama in Palm Beach county all the way up the coast to Jacksonville
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Pennsylvania Governor county map on: October 27, 2014, 01:33:21 pm
We know Wolf should take this election easily but I'm interested to see if he wins an Obama 2008 like victory with huge margins in Philly suburbs and single digits in Lancaster. I would guess the southwest PA counties of Fayette, Beaver, Greene go blue but by single digits.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early Exit Polls on: October 27, 2014, 01:31:31 pm
I think I was one of very few who wasn't one bit fooled by the early Virginia numbers in 2012 or 2013. When McAuliffe was more or less matching Obama's numbers in southeast VA I figured he would win.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: St. Pete Polls: Crist leads Rick Scott in Pinellas, his home county, 50% to 40% on: October 27, 2014, 01:27:22 pm
Sink won it by 6 in 2010 so this is plausible.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Hillary over Jeb in Florida? on: October 27, 2014, 12:23:48 pm
A lot of people won't think so but the polls all giving her an edge seem to make this possible. Jeb was Governor awhile ago and FL gets so many new residents that this probably negates a possible Jeb edge. Even polls with midterm only voters seem to have Jeb down a few to Hillary. Considering both are well known it's ominous for the GOP. Can't help but wonder if Florida could be to Jeb what Tennessee was to Gore.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Gravis: Crist up 2 on: October 27, 2014, 12:11:03 pm
Crist winning this sample is ominous news for Scott
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