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September 26, 2016, 07:16:31 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MN SUSA/KSTP TV Poll: Clinton +7 on: September 25, 2016, 11:37:57 pm
Yeah, I wouldn't be stunned one bit if Trump wins MN-8 while losing MN 2,3 by more than the national average. Usually Minnesota and Iowa are fairly close but it doesn't seem it will be this way this year.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox News: Trump leads by 3 in NV, 5 in OH, and 5 in NC on: September 21, 2016, 10:39:25 pm
Nevada is well set up for Angle vs Reid Part II. Sure, Trump can win with 36% of Hispanics. I wouldn't take the bet on that one.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Minnesota and Iowa on: September 17, 2016, 12:23:16 am
Minneapolis suburbs are a big problem for Trump, Iowa has nothing like it. I could see Trump carrying MN-8 though.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the election was held today, who would win? on: September 16, 2016, 09:13:06 am
Clinton, with Kerry like wins in PA, WI and slightly larger wins in NH, MI, VA, CO.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who Will Mahoning County, Ohio on: September 16, 2016, 12:36:06 am
Clinton but by only 10-15
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: GA-Opinion Savvy: Trump +4 on: September 15, 2016, 03:11:23 pm
If Georgia is within 5, NC and FL are probably blue. Of course none of the polls in this state right now exactly make sense.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - New Jersey on: September 14, 2016, 02:23:47 pm
NJ will have some interesting swings though. The shore will get more R and Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon will get more D.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-Monmouth: Trump +2 on: September 14, 2016, 02:00:54 pm
Trump will not get 28% of the non-white vote, that's like getting 35-38% of hispanics.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-Monmouth: Trump +2 on: September 14, 2016, 01:31:02 pm
Berkeley lost but she was much closer than the polls suggested.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's path to 270 on: September 14, 2016, 01:28:00 pm
I think 2 is more likely also. Wisconsin has more non-college whites than Pennsylvania and by quite a lot too. Look here: http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608

Despite PA's blue collar reputation, Clinton will probably overwhelm Trump so badly in the Philly suburbs that Trump will be simply unable to close the gap. Even places like Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, State College will sprinkle in enough Democratic votes to keep Trump out.

Wisconsin is a problem for Trump in the Milwaukee suburbs compared to normal GOP showings but he has a chance to gain significant ground upstate.

As for Florida, it is going to be very interesting. Polls have Hillary doing better than Obama's 21% win with Latinos. Most have it around 25-32% for her. If Hispanics grow as a portion of the electorate, it can offset any Trump gains with whites. Obama lost FL whites by 22-23 in 2012 and some polls have it similar or less, others closer to 27%. In other words, Florida is going to be VERY close.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-Monmouth: Trump +2 on: September 14, 2016, 12:22:59 pm
exits were 64% white in 2012, I don't think an 18% white vote Trump win will be enough for him here.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/8608
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump's path to 270 on: September 14, 2016, 11:42:50 am
Despite the media talking about Ohio, it's pretty clear he is going to have to pull off one of the following maps in order to win.



279-259 Trump

OR



269-269 each. Even if ME-2 is red, the GOP house will break the tie if it's 269 all so it's largely irrelevant.

I don't really see any other path in a close election. MI is the bluest of MI, PA, WI trio and autoworkers are probably the least likely blue collar whites to defect. VA, CO clearly lean D at this point in time based on education levels, NH is not far behind. The NV/NH combo looks like a longshot for the GOP, NV polls could be off again and other than one poll, NH isn't close.

I just don't see a path for Trump without one of Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV) on: September 11, 2016, 03:42:33 pm
We are going to get at least one state where the polls are off by 7% on election night
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +7 in Ohio, Clinton +2 in Florida on: September 11, 2016, 11:07:08 am
The polls are ALL over the place today
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV) on: September 10, 2016, 11:23:13 pm
If Ayotte is up 7 there but down in every other poll you know its an outlier. I think this poster is making stuff up
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV) on: September 10, 2016, 11:13:14 pm
AZ and NV are neighbors too, they shouldn't have wild counter swings.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV) on: September 10, 2016, 11:03:03 pm
There is no way Georgia, NH, NV are all within 1-2% of each other. None. Poster might be a troll
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Politico article: GOP strategists think Trump is toast in CO, VA, NH on: September 08, 2016, 06:03:09 pm
The media doesn't seem to understand this but Trump is cooked without one of Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CT/NH/VT/MA/NJ/ME/RI-Emerson on: September 07, 2016, 10:10:50 am
RI is going to trend R but this is too much.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Vigo county, indiana on: September 03, 2016, 01:12:21 pm
This is the R type of year Vigo loses its streak.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CA-10: Denham likely here to stay on: September 02, 2016, 01:32:56 pm
The districts demographics make this one a sleeper.
22  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Supreme Court could eliminate Gerrymandering on: September 01, 2016, 12:24:19 pm
If Clinton wins, I think the House in 2020 could be much more in play if she is somewhat popular. I expect the court to declare the GOP maps in NC WI MI PA VA FL invalid and articulate a standard for districts.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pennsylvania - Emerson Polling: Clinton + 3 on: August 29, 2016, 09:09:49 am
IVR landline only poll and with Toomey up way more than plausible. Trump still losing here is a big problem.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Federal panel says MD redistricting lawsuit can move forward on: August 28, 2016, 08:45:45 am
Dems really could have created an 8-0 Maryland map by splitting the eastern shore and putting part of Baltimore in MD-01
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Why the Republicans still have an electoral vote advantage in 50/50 contests on: August 27, 2016, 10:04:46 am
It's true....that said I'm not sure the electoral college will have a GOP bias. If Hillary wins WI, PA, VA, CO, NH by more than her popular vote she's at 273.
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