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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win in IL-12? on: August 25, 2016, 10:52:58 am
Trump narrowly. Those districts are prime Trump flip territory but IA-3 won't. Des Moines will keep Clinton ahead.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Gwinnett and Cobb Counties? on: August 22, 2016, 08:06:25 pm
Look at the census. Gwinnett is 5% less white than 2010 as of 2015. It's reasonable to expect the 2016 electorate to be 4% less white than 2012. It's also decently educated and GOP is maxed with whites. Should be very very close.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Monmouth Poll: Clinton +4 in Ohio on: August 22, 2016, 12:32:10 pm
Ohio just isn't what it used to be this year. It's pretty clear it won't be the tipping point and possibly as low as #347 for Hillary. Florida and North Carolina look more blue.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: UPDATED: County maps w/ Margins on: August 20, 2016, 09:47:28 pm
Georgia isn't unrealistic. Henry county should blue this time though. Dems won it in 2014 Gov and Senate, an indication that demographics have transformed it. If Hillary is to win GA, she'd need Gwinnett and probably Cobb as well.

Trump won't win Pinellas or Hillsborough. Pinellas is whiter so it may be the more red of the two. St Lucie is also an inelastic county that's unlikely to trend one way or another much this year. If Trump is to win its more likely because of expanded margins in places like Volusia, Flagler, Indian River.  
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: UPDATED: County maps w/ Margins on: August 20, 2016, 08:19:55 pm
Trump isn't winning Hillsborough county FL. It's half non-white and trending D. He won't win Hamilton county OH either.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Swing state PVI on: August 19, 2016, 01:11:06 pm
Ohio. Iowa will be like 1% more D than Ohio.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Pew National Poll: Clinton +4 on: August 18, 2016, 01:29:37 pm
Johnson and Stein are not high profile enough to get 28% of 18-29 voters. I don't deny they could get 6/8% but Stein especially is not well known.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-Suffolk: Clinton +2 on: August 18, 2016, 10:52:07 am
Trump can do better than Romney with working class whites here but he'll lose college whites who went 57% Romney. I just don't see this state being as close as polls, not at 40% non white. If Clinton wins by 11 on Election Day after being up 4 no ome should be stunned.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the margin in Mingo county, WV on: August 17, 2016, 06:39:06 pm
I don't expect a huge GOP swing in coal country this time. Maybe a small one. The largest GOP swings will be areas like southern IL, IN, OH...places where Obama was around 35-40% with working class whites and where Dems have room to fall. In coal country, the bottom has already fallen out the past two cycles so there really isn't much more ground to lose.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the margin in Mingo county, WV on: August 17, 2016, 12:31:23 pm
72-23-5
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IN-Monmouth: Trump +11 on: August 17, 2016, 12:08:23 pm
Indiana and Ohio will not change much. The big Democratic gains are coming out west and on the southeastern coast.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Clinton win any counties in Oklahoma and West Virginia? on: August 16, 2016, 03:14:43 pm
Jefferson in WV is possible. It's not at all a coal county.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL- Monmouth: Clinton +9 on: August 16, 2016, 02:37:21 pm
What Romney counties will Hillary win? I'm thinking Sarasota, Seminole, Duval, Volusia (barely but only a small flip needed) and Hendry. Polk could be close.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will millennials become more conservative with age, and if so, by how much? on: August 13, 2016, 11:38:45 pm
Sometime in the 2030s-2040s, Dems will have 280 seats in Congress during a wave year as a result of current voting trends.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will Jewish voters leave the Democratic Party en masse? on: August 13, 2016, 11:34:43 pm
It sure as hell won't happen this year with a white nationalist sympathizer leading the GOP ticket.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Who wins Chesterfield County, VA? on: August 13, 2016, 11:19:48 pm
This should be an interesting county. It has gone R every year since 1948 but with ever decreasing margins over the past 25 years. Romney won it 53-45 in 2012 but Northam beat Jackson in the 2013 Lt. Gov race here. I think Clinton as of now would carry it, she'll improve here and not at all in the southwest.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will ex-Dem working class white backlash voters return to Dems if Trump loses? on: August 13, 2016, 11:29:59 am
Nah, many of them are Appalachian and furious at Obama for the "war on coal." Their GOP numbers will level out and maybe decline slightly if Clinton is popular but they won't return to the Democratic fold again.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton's best performing areas/regions in South Carolina in GE on: August 11, 2016, 10:29:05 pm
Clinton will need to post big gains in Charleston, Beaufort on the coast. As in winning Charleston by 15%, and making Beaufort single digits. She'll also need to get 70% in Richland, improve in Lexington and York counties with white college grads. Also needs to improve in Greenville a bit. A lot of the rural counties will not swing at all from 2012 because they are so inelastic.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-OpinionSavvy: Rubio +2 on: August 11, 2016, 07:53:34 pm
Based on national polls, one must wonder if Hillary is really only up 1 here. I kind of think it's closer to the one with 6%.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Rubio +3, Portman +9, McGinty +3 on: August 11, 2016, 07:47:13 pm
If I'm the GOP this FL poll would scare me. Murphy is still not that well known and he could get a primary boost. Also, Rubio getting 37% of non-whites may indicate a lot of soft support. Senate races tend to break in September and Murphy will blast the airwaves with video of Rubio supporting Trump and vice versa. Murphy losing whites by 14 will probably get it done for him.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/NH-PPP: Clinton +3 in FL, +13 in NH on: August 11, 2016, 11:28:03 am
I think Florida is closer to a 7 point game than 3. Hispanics are just a hard group to poll and universally bad for Trump. It probably explains why FL NV look closer in some polls than they are. If SC is close then NC is more than 1%. A lot of transplants in these sun belt states don't have landlines and are harder to poll, especially for a PPP style automated poll. No one bothers to set up a landline under age 40. NH is easier to poll bc it's not racially diverse and composed of longtime residents.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Internal poll megathread on: August 10, 2016, 10:12:08 pm
FL-7 and 26 will probably have greater Democratic trends than other districts in the state. I expect most of northern Florida to move very little in either direction, Miami to completely collapse for Trump and for Trump to somewhat underperform in places like Collier, Sarasota. He'll do fine in Volusia.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA/OH/PA-NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +4/tied in IA, +5/+4 in OH, +11/+9 in PA on: August 10, 2016, 12:34:44 pm
If Wisconsin is near 15 then Iowa will be closer to 10 than 5. I stand by my post.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA/OH/PA-NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton +4/tied in IA, +5/+4 in OH, +11/+9 in PA on: August 10, 2016, 09:46:01 am
I think Hilary may be underestimated in Iowa. This poll has her up 31% with white college grads and down only 7% with white non college. I know Iowa has a lot of non college whites but these numbers should add up to more like an 8-9% Hillary lead not 4%.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: Clinton +1 in FL, +4 in OH, +10 in PA on: August 09, 2016, 02:22:59 pm
Florida is a mess to poll with all the Latino and transplants with cell only. I think Clinton is likely up 6-8 if GA is in play.
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