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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-SurveyUSA: Clinton+4 on: Today at 08:24:56 am
If the white vote margin is 6% Hillary is winning by more than 4 points.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary's margin in NY on: Today at 08:20:51 am
Same as Romney in 2012, beats him in Staten Island, parts of western NY. Does worse in the area along the NY/VT border.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Popular vote vs electoral vote maps on: June 27, 2016, 10:50:05 pm
Trump isn't winning Michigan if it's a 1% national margin.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11 on: June 27, 2016, 01:47:33 pm
This is one of the Clinton beats Obama states but doesn't win, see also UT, WY, ID, KS
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: GOP in good shape on: June 22, 2016, 10:00:24 am
This pollster just wanted to give Rubio an excuse to run. His approvals are 13% higher here than PPP while the other GOP run in line with other polls. Rubio is going to have to explain why he's supporting Trump and why he doesnt go his job.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can TRUMP win without Florida? on: June 21, 2016, 04:34:33 pm
I can't see Hillary losing Wisconsin or Virginia, both of which are terrible Trump fits. Colorado is a pretty difficult one for Trump too.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict Florida to the best of your ability. on: June 20, 2016, 10:44:32 am
Yes, Clinton will get over 60% in Orange, 65% in Dade and do better than Obama 2012 in Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough. She may also flip a county like Sarasota if she wins by a lot. Volusia is a solid place for Trump so if Hillary somehow won there it would likely be a weak flip.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Is Rubio actually reconsidering post-Orlando shooting? on: June 19, 2016, 11:51:21 am
It will be close but I would bet on a 51-48 Murphy win. Rubio is not the same guy as a couple years back, he is severely damaged goods at this point and facing a well-funded opponent.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-4/Salt Lake Tribune: Owens +5 on: June 12, 2016, 08:36:21 pm
This district will be substantially closer at the presidential level than 2012. McCain won it 56-41, Romney 67-30. Single digits for Trump isn't out of the question.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Public Policy Polling: Trump 41 Clinton 40 on: June 07, 2016, 06:32:46 pm
PPP had many polls like Washington state where they underestimated Obama big time in 2012.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Public Policy Polling: Trump 41 Clinton 40 on: June 07, 2016, 02:19:31 pm
Florida is becoming as hard to poll as Nevada and Colorado...Hispanics will be more than 15% of the electorate.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Iowa vote in the GE? on: June 05, 2016, 11:28:47 pm
Iowa is a bad state for Trump, it has similar demographics to MN, WI. I thought Iowa would lose it's Democratic lean with another R but not so sure about Trump.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: Clinton 45 Trump 42 // Biden 50 Trump 40 on: June 04, 2016, 10:50:14 am
The problem with that calculator is assuming uniform swings in the white vote. I can see small GOP swings in Appalachia, northeast that is countered by Dem swings in the west.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post Trump vs Clinton swing state county maps here! on: June 03, 2016, 03:15:52 pm
In Florida, no way Trump wins Hillsborough, with its demographics Trump is looking at 10%+ defeat possibly. Pinellas won't flip either. If Hillary wins the state by 5% I could see Sarasota flipping blue as Trump is a worse fit for these wealthier areas than Romney. Trump could expand on Romney in Volusia.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Post Trump vs Clinton swing state county maps here! on: June 03, 2016, 12:10:59 pm
You gotta be on acid to think Trump will win Franklin County, OH, Allegheny County, PA
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anyone Else Think Clinton Should Be Concerned about CO? on: June 02, 2016, 02:52:39 pm
I think the 270-268 map was more realistic with Rubio than it is with Trump.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / States that we need more polls from on: June 02, 2016, 08:45:27 am
I would say Iowa, Colorado and Nevada we could use some updated numbers. A good Virginia poll is needed too.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Anyone Else Think Clinton Should Be Concerned about CO? on: June 02, 2016, 08:40:50 am
Colorado is fairly white but it's mostly college-educated white, not a demographic Trump is doing well with.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NJ-Monmouth: Clinton in trouble on: May 31, 2016, 10:57:36 am
A lot of undecided Dems and indies, probably Bernie voters.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How would the Florida Senate race rate if Rubio runs for Re-Election? on: May 30, 2016, 09:35:00 am
Rubio here has a reputation for neglecting the state, he would likely be at the mercy of Trump. He could win but if Trump implodes in Florida he goes down with him.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump's strategy on: May 29, 2016, 09:04:32 pm
I'll predict the Donald is a massive bust in parts of upstate NY, running behind Romney in places along the NY/VT, NY/MA border. He might be better in the southwest part though and Staten Island. Not sure Long Island will change that much from 2012-16.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin on: May 29, 2016, 09:02:26 pm
The Scandanavian influence in WI/MN/IA helps Dems this time around. Trump does better with the Appalachian crowd that identifies as "American." I don't consider Michigan really in play this time around, not with Dems winning that open senate seat easily in 2014 and Obama by nearly 10 last time. PA is really hard for the GOP too, they really need both a huge gain in western PA without a decline in metro Philly. Places like Chester and Berks could easily swing back to the Dems from 2012, especially Chester where Romney was a good fit.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin on: May 29, 2016, 11:29:16 am
I think this is really Trump's best and possibly only path to 270

24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin on: May 28, 2016, 11:07:58 pm
The media is lumping these 3 states in with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan when talking about midwest. Does anyone else think Trump will underperform in these 3 states? The Wisconsin polls are not very promising for Trump at all and no one has polled Iowa recently but the January polls were not terribly friendly for Trump either.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2012-2016 National Trend Map? on: May 24, 2016, 12:32:32 pm
I think NY/NJ will have a light blue trend, maybe 3% ish toward the GOP, not the heavy trend suggested here.
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