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May 29, 2016, 08:10:03 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin on: Today at 11:29:16 am
I think this is really Trump's best and possibly only path to 270

2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin on: May 28, 2016, 11:07:58 pm
The media is lumping these 3 states in with Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan when talking about midwest. Does anyone else think Trump will underperform in these 3 states? The Wisconsin polls are not very promising for Trump at all and no one has polled Iowa recently but the January polls were not terribly friendly for Trump either.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2012-2016 National Trend Map? on: May 24, 2016, 12:32:32 pm
I think NY/NJ will have a light blue trend, maybe 3% ish toward the GOP, not the heavy trend suggested here.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA - Roanoke College: Clinton - 38 Trump - 38 on: May 24, 2016, 09:08:15 am
I could see Clinton/Trump in Virginia looking like Northam/Jackson when it's all done.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: LA-JMC: Trump 52 Clinton 36 on: May 09, 2016, 11:42:33 pm
I think Clinton does about Landrieu ish, loses by 9-10.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What counties will flip in a Clinton vs. Trump matchup? on: May 06, 2016, 07:24:36 pm
In FL, Volusia is blue collar..it could swing to Hillary and "trend" R if it goes from 50-49 Romney to 50-49 Clinton.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predicting the 2016 Presidential Election by Congressional District on: May 06, 2016, 07:16:24 pm
I think Hillary takes PA 6,7,8 and 15 against Trump. Also wins FL-18, VA-2, 10 and maybe WI 7,8.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What will be Hillary's best state in the general election? on: May 06, 2016, 06:47:23 pm
Hawaii is a terrible fit for a racist like Trump, if it's 78-22 I won't be shocked.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What counties will flip in a Clinton vs. Trump matchup? on: May 06, 2016, 12:18:57 am
Hillary will win Sarasota in Florida
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What counties will flip in a Clinton vs. Trump matchup? on: May 05, 2016, 11:58:19 pm
Trump flips Elliott in KY, becomes first R to ever win. Hillary flips Berks, Chester in PA, Chesterfield in VA and Duval in FL.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY-Siena: Clinton curbstomps Trump on: May 05, 2016, 01:52:25 pm
Hillary will beat Obama 2012 in the end but she'll prolly only improve 1-3%. Even then,  I think the GOP gains are more in places like NY-11 and King's district. A cooked Kasich got in the mid 30s in NY-21.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WV-PPP: Trump crushes Clinton on: May 03, 2016, 03:13:24 pm
My guess is Trump could exceed Romney slightly but won't sweep all counties. Hillary can probably win Jefferson vs Trump.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rassy - National: Trump +2 on: May 02, 2016, 12:45:03 pm
When the media focus becomes about whether Trump is fit for office it's not gonna look pretty for the GOP.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP - Tight race in Ohio on: May 02, 2016, 12:44:17 pm
Hillary will win Florida by more than Ohio this time. Much more room to grow with Hispanics, Jews and white seniors in FL compared to dying factory towns in OH and can't depend on the huge black turnout in Ohio that Obama got. I see VA OR IA being Hillary's 265th ev, PA 285, FL 314, OH 332.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton/Warren (D) vs. Trump/Webb (R) on: April 30, 2016, 10:16:12 pm
Webb wouldnt win VA for Trump or even be close, he never really had a deep connection with voters the way Warner and Kaine do.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats Must Win 30 Seats to Take the House on: April 29, 2016, 05:09:18 pm
It's too early for 2018 panic, as President Hillary would get a national audience and be able to hit the reset button with a lot of the things such as the emails that currently cause her unfavorables.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Pennsylvania in 2016 on: April 24, 2016, 12:50:36 pm
If that NBC poll is anything close to accurate, Trump will get destroyed in eastern PA.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Richmond County, NY (Staten Island) be Trump's best county anywhere? on: April 22, 2016, 08:14:38 am
More votes were cast in the Democratic primary. If Trump wins SI it will be single digits.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WMUR/UNH-NH: Clinton, Sanders lead Trump, Cruz by a lot on: April 21, 2016, 09:50:31 pm
If this is anywhere near the final result, Ayotte loses.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where will Trump do better in New York? on: April 11, 2016, 11:18:47 pm
NY-11, Staten Island has got to be Trump's best place in the country possibly.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will be the next realignment election? on: April 02, 2016, 09:19:44 am
If the GOP wins in 2024, Dems win the House back in 2026.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A Cruz/Walker ticket could unite the GOP on: March 29, 2016, 07:32:10 pm
Trump isn't going quietly into the night if he's short of 1237 but easily has most delegates. Keep dreaming.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Donald Trump Putting GOP House Majority in Jeopardy on: March 23, 2016, 08:55:53 am
FL-26 went 56-44 Obama last time, with Trump in Miami you're looking at 20% plus possibly considering the demographics. Curbelo is likely screwed.

FL-18 is the type of district that Trump might struggle in with its higher income/education levels. With Murphy on the ballot for Senate I see Dems holding this one too.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders' best county in Florida? on: March 14, 2016, 09:44:16 pm
Alachua easily, Leon has more African-Americans.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-High Point University/SurveyUSA: Republicans ahead of Clinton/Sanders on: March 11, 2016, 02:56:59 pm
Hillary can beat Trump in NC, this poll is 80% white and 40% 65 and older, completely absurd.
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