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January 29, 2015, 03:26:31 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Clinton vs Walker on: Today at 12:20:45 am
Discuss with maps. I think Clinton would win even in Wisconsin and Iowa but a close election could look like this. Florida would be a tough one for Walker since he'd do poorly with minorities and there aren't many more whites for the GOP to flip.

2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio vs Clinton on: January 25, 2015, 07:36:26 pm
With demographic changes, Florida should be right at the tipping point unless Jeb is the GOP nominee (Hillary can beat jeb there but not as first 270). With paul it could even be bluer than the country.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio vs Clinton on: January 24, 2015, 09:22:42 pm
This is a problem for the GOP in Florida http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html

I know it's early but if Rubio was so popular he wouldn't be down 11.5 on his own turf.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: January 24, 2015, 06:18:28 pm
Graham should run for 2018 Gov, not Senate next year.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Romney and Jeb to Meet on: January 23, 2015, 10:27:47 pm
They're both washed up and overrated candidates that Hillary and Dems are licking their chops at.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-PPP: Hillary up easily on: January 23, 2015, 05:54:57 pm
fav/unfav %:

Carson 25/16% for +9%
Clinton 47/44% for +3%
Warren 25/26% for -1%
Biden 41/44% for -3%
Huckabee 31/39% for -8%
Paul 31/39% for -8%
Santorum 33/43% for -10%
Romney 34/49% for -15%
Christie 30/48% for -18%
Bush 28/48% for -20%


That should give the GOP pause about nominating Jeb. Pretty staggering how many are opposed to him just on his name and it's problematic that the donors like him more than the GOPs voters.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio vs Clinton on: January 23, 2015, 05:53:41 pm
Hillary has led Rubio in every Florida poll. She can win NC too, it only takes a small demographic chane from 2012 plus maybe 33% whites rather than 31%.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-PPP: Hillary up easily on: January 22, 2015, 08:12:09 pm
You can't compare PPP in one state to a national poll of registered voters from another firm.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-PPP: Hillary up easily on: January 22, 2015, 05:45:48 pm
Racial demographics might be a little too white as well. Hillary probably does slightly better in the Philly suburbs and much better in southwest PA.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which candidate do you think is completely overrated? on: January 20, 2015, 07:02:10 pm
Jeb.....Might not be what the GOP base wants and even if he's the nominee the Bush name destroys him vs Clinton.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biggest possible electoral college shift on: January 18, 2015, 01:27:15 pm
Hillary win with modest adjustment for demographics: North Carolina flips D

Hillary win with modest erosion of Midwestern working class: Ohio, Iowa flip R, Florida possibly with Jeb.

Hillary wins, Rs nominate an unelectable candidate: Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Montana
 flip D
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RomneyWatch: Upgrade to "Almost certainly" running again on: January 13, 2015, 01:09:10 am
He can expect a fairly predictable 6% loss to Clinton with North Carolina being the only state to flip.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Romney run again? on: January 13, 2015, 12:29:02 am
More likely to be William Jennings Bryan and Thomas Dewey than Nixon.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP being delusional about Jeb and Mitt on: January 11, 2015, 11:29:21 pm
A 2000 like economy won't produce a change of party this time. Demographics make that extremely unlikely. Even modest growth probably leaves the GOP a couple points short in Virginia and Ohio.

Ohio hasnt changed demographics and FL's PVI hasnt changed at least since 1996

FL hasn't changed but the GOP is maxed out in Northern Florida. It just might be ready to start trending D but Jeb could keep it R+1 or 2 for another cycle.
I have a feeling more of these Yankees in South Florida are going to switch Repub soon.

That's pretty much the only way the GOP keeps Florida if they lose Latinos.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP being delusional about Jeb and Mitt on: January 11, 2015, 09:58:56 pm
A 2000 like economy won't produce a change of party this time. Demographics make that extremely unlikely. Even modest growth probably leaves the GOP a couple points short in Virginia and Ohio.

Ohio hasnt changed demographics and FL's PVI hasnt changed at least since 1996

FL hasn't changed but the GOP is maxed out in Northern Florida. It just might be ready to start trending D but Jeb could keep it R+1 or 2 for another cycle.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP being delusional about Jeb and Mitt on: January 11, 2015, 08:22:24 pm
The energy for those guys is all within the donor class, not the average voter. Just don't be shocked when you get around 46.5% of the vote.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs Mitt Romney on: January 11, 2015, 06:29:02 pm
Wolf also did pretty well in western Pennsylvania. Look at Fayette, Cambria, Greene. They might not bounce back to 2004 kerry showings but even a repeat of 2012 numbers out there makes it close to impossible to lose the state. SW Pennsylvania is heavily catholic and the evangelical right might not have huge appeal here. Hillary is a strong fit.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP being delusional about Jeb and Mitt on: January 11, 2015, 06:21:11 pm
A 2000 like economy won't produce a change of party this time. Demographics make that extremely unlikely. Even modest growth probably leaves the GOP a couple points short in Virginia and Ohio.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / GOP being delusional about Jeb and Mitt on: January 11, 2015, 02:56:21 pm
How many people here really think either one will beat Clinton? Romney was a pretty bad candidate in 2012 and Jeb has a last name that voters really aren't in love with. With the economy getting better, exactly what message do those guys have? GOP is better running someone like Kasich, Rubio or even Paul.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs Mitt Romney on: January 11, 2015, 02:45:45 pm
Hillary isn't losing PA to Romney. That's just beyond absurd.
Pennsylvania's been trending more conservative relative to the rest of the nation.

Hillary's likely to be in a worse position in 2016 than Obama in 2012, since he was an incumbent seeking reelection, and he's generally agreed to be a superior political talent.

Romney got okay results in Pennsylvania despite relatively little ad spending. Given the electoral value of the state (the Republican who wins that likely wins the election) that is almost certain to change in 2016.


A 1.5-2% trend for a couple cycles really is not a long term indicator. Clear trends are what's happening with the GOP in West Virginia and Dems in Virginia. Pennsylvania the last two cycles is more noise than a rightward trend. I think with Hillary it would trend 2-3% D and be back to around 4% more D than the country.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush on: January 10, 2015, 11:45:39 pm
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_bush_vs_clinton-3554.html

Jeb's problem summed up. The PPP polls are also midterm ones with 69% white electorate, it should be 63-64% or so in 2016.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Iowa or New Hampshire: Which is Hillary more likely to lose? (General Election) on: January 10, 2015, 11:41:29 pm
More likely to lose IA. NH has been very friendly to the Clinton's historically as well.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs Mitt Romney on: January 10, 2015, 09:03:55 pm
Pennsylvania is not a good bet for the GOP there, Hillary might run better in western PA and unless Romney does much better in Philly area, the math doesn't add up.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 field: Enter Mitt Romney? on: January 10, 2015, 01:08:55 am
Hillary would beat him more badly than Obama did.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What counties are likely to flip? on: January 08, 2015, 09:38:31 pm
R to D possibilities

GA: Henry- 2014 results make it pretty clear this is happening
SC: Florence (not sure of latest demographic changes but a minor D favorable one does it)
NC: Lenoir, New Hanover (both could but may not)
PA: Chester, Berks and possibly Fayette with Hillary
OH: Scioto, Ross, Pike with Hillary

D to R:
KY: Elliott (but I can see Hillary pulling it out by 5-10%)
FL: Jefferson (lower black turnout may hurt Hillary but it's pretty inelastic so Ds may hold)
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