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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-18: Siena: Maloney (D) winning by 8 on: September 19, 2014, 12:22:25 am
Considering it was a 51-47 Obama district in 2012, more evidence there may not be a wave this fall.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Elon University: Hagan leads by 4% on: September 15, 2014, 01:03:12 am
If the GOP captures the senate and can't win North Carolina or Iowa it's a very ominous sign.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GOP Generic Ballot Surge on: September 13, 2014, 01:02:34 pm
The surge is mainly from the switch from RV to LV. The Dems also have pretty much closed up shop on the House and are putting resources toward Senate and Governor races. Just weird because even with the GOP surge, the polls have gotten more friendly in IA, NC, CO and MI for Dems this past week.

 The RV/LV screen was also a reason why some polls had Romney doing better in 2012 than he did. Many polls had him winning Colorado, Florida and much closer than he ended up in NH, IA and WI. The Braley/Ernst 7 point LV/RV gap could be real but it could also be a GOP disappointment on election night. The intro of cell phones and problems polling Hispanic voters should be taken into account as well.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-21 (Siena)- Stefanik holds double digit lead on: September 12, 2014, 12:00:04 pm
The green party will never get even close to 10%. Could be closer if you test a 2 way race.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NY-21 (Siena)- Stefanik holds double digit lead on: September 12, 2014, 12:19:02 am
Obama actually won this district 52-46, better than his 2008 showing. I can see this one going red this fall and flipping right back in 2016, especially if Hillary scores a big win. It's trending Democratic but probably winnable for the GOP until the next big Democratic year.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GOP underperforming in 2014? on: September 11, 2014, 01:04:42 pm
If the GOP wins the Senate at 51-49 with all Obama states and NC going blue, that is simply not a GOP wave. Shows more weakness on the GOP side with northern whites.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NC-Rasmussen: Hagan pulls ahead by 6 on: September 11, 2014, 12:39:39 pm
If the GOP loses North Carolina they probably lose Iowa and Colorado. Still could win senate at 51-49 with Alaska but their majority would be doomed in 2016 from the first second the new congress takes office.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: YouGov/NYT releases 2nd round of Governor polls on: September 11, 2014, 11:44:57 am
They re-interviewed the same people as well, you simply can't do that to get an accurate picture. That is not a random sample anymore.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: YouGov/NYT releases 2nd round of Governor polls on: September 11, 2014, 11:43:03 am
Never been a fan of the Yougov polls. They just seem a bit inconsistent with other polls in states like Florida and last time Kansas. The two week frame is too large as well and incorporating internet respondents leads room for error as well. 
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-SurveyUSA/WFLA tracking poll: Scott+1 on: September 09, 2014, 01:26:52 pm
Florida is among the worst states with dropoff from presidential to midterm years. Hillary will get a completely different electorate in 2016, that is why she runs so well in polls there. Look at 2010, Sink gets 41% of whites and loses and in 2012 Obama gets 37% whites and wins.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: Rasmussen: Beauprez pulls slightly ahead on: September 08, 2014, 02:32:38 pm
Find me a single Rassy poll in this state since 2008 that hasn't been a joke in the end.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon/Telemundo/Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association: Scott+2 on: September 08, 2014, 02:31:20 pm
Mason-Dixon had Romney winning Florida by 6 in 2012, that is the mark of a bad pollster. 7 points off.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rothenberg: 2014 = 2010, GOP gaining (at least) 7 seats on: September 08, 2014, 02:29:59 pm
I just don't see it as a GOP big year if they can't even win an open seat in swing state Iowa and lost several incumbent Govs in swing states. One (Corbett) is already cooked.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rothenberg: 2014 = 2010, GOP gaining (at least) 7 seats on: September 08, 2014, 02:05:41 pm
I think they gain 7 but that's all they are getting unless they win Iowa or Colorado. I just don't think winning 7 Romney states is a big accomplishment and if Dems win several swing state governorships in PA, WI, FL, MI it's a problem for GOP.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GOP underperforming in 2014? on: September 08, 2014, 02:04:01 pm
The Senate polls are striking to me in how closely correlated they are with 2012 presidential results.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon/Telemundo/Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association: Scott+2 on: September 07, 2014, 10:14:55 pm
PPP is doing Florida this weekend so we should have a fairly reliable poll soon.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon/Telemundo/Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association: Scott+2 on: September 07, 2014, 09:45:20 pm
Scott won whites by 15 in 2010 and most polls have him up by less this time. Odd that combined with demographic change some polls have him winning by more than 2010.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: What if Kansas is the Next Colorado and this is it's 2004? on: September 05, 2014, 04:00:03 pm
Only 2016 Republican I can see losing Kansas is Cruz and even then that means he's already lost 38 other states.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GOP underperforming in 2014? on: September 05, 2014, 12:08:07 pm
I assure you Republicans don't give a damn about 'underperforming' by anyone's subjective standards, just so long as Harry Reid isn't Majority Leader after November.

You should be concerned though, Obama will still have veto power anyway and the House already is a check on him so it isn't like things change that much in Washington. It is a big deal for 2016 because if the GOP only gets 51-52 seats, the Democrats have prime opportunities in 2016. Illinois, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are prime Democratic targets and a Hillary victory likely flips those blue. That is just the start, GOP seats in Ohio, Florida (open if Rubio runs for President), New Hampshire are never safe as well. Combine that with a potential for a competitive North Carolina in a presidential year with the possibility of open seats in Arizona and Iowa and you never know. If the GOP only gets a small majority and Hillary is winning in 2016, the Senate is going Democratic. If Hillary wins a landslide 2016, the Senate is Democratic with room to spare.

GOP opportunities in 2016 are limited to Nevada and Colorado and even those are pretty bleak. Both had a Democratic PVI the last two cycles and trends are not friendly for the GOP. Reid not running would probably help the Dems and Bennet is unlikely to lose after winning in 2010.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GOP underperforming in 2014? on: September 05, 2014, 11:19:49 am
I think the Democrats will hold Colorado in both races. Unless pollsters have fixed their problems there, it seems like it could be another example of Dems doing better on Election Day than in polls. Iowa is going to be close, Ernst is really too far right for the state but Braley is aloof. I can see Braley winning close in the end though. Just seems like voters are supporting their team this year with very few changing usual preferences. The generic ballot is pretty much Obamas 4% win in 2012 minus an adjustment for midterm turnout that makes things pretty even.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / GOP underperforming in 2014? on: September 05, 2014, 10:32:00 am
With all the talk about a wave that will bring them senate seats, it just seems like winning Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, West Virginia and other red states really isn't anything impressive. If seats that were up in 2012 like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania were up now I think Dems would still be up in all 3. The GOP winning the senate with 51 or 52 seats says very little if the Dems hold Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire. Combine this with the fact Dems may take governors races in Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin and even Michigan and I think the GOP is on it's way to denying some serious problems for 2016.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: After primary win, Crist regains lead on: September 03, 2014, 10:57:57 am
i'd be concerned if I were the GOP that each poll really doesn't have Scott doing well enough with whites to have a strong chance. And the undecideds skew younger.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Florida (SurveyUSA): Hillary leads Romney by 7 on: August 22, 2014, 02:31:21 pm
Polling the Cubans was a nightmare in 2012, the polls have vastly underestimated Dems with Hispanics nationally too.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-SurveyUSA: Gov. Scott (R) up 3 on: August 21, 2014, 01:03:21 pm
Scott's numbers among whites isn't good enough to win if it holds. Remember the manner in which FL hispanics were poorly polled in 2012.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: TNR: Democrats Have a White Working Class Problem and Not Just in the South on: August 08, 2014, 12:16:21 am
Article is completely unsupported by facts, makes more sense to lump Iowa with Illinois and the rest of the Midwest than lump Iowa West Virginia Oklahoma together and Virginia along with Arkansas and Tennessee in a different category. Fact is a white working class person in Iowa is MUCH more likely to be Democratic than one in Oklahoma.
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