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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Crist won the Cuban vote by 4 on: December 18, 2014, 10:14:35 pm
Miami-Dade County is rapidly becoming a nightmare for the GOP. With 2012 turnout patterns Crist wins the state by at least 2-3%. The oldest Cubans are about 65% R or more while the youngest ones seem to vote D at the same rate as other Hispanics.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/18/upshot/why-the-cuba-issue-no-longer-cuts-against-democrats-in-florida.html?rref=upshot&_r=0

The embargo shouldn't be a big issue and change things much. Dade County I can see becoming a 67-75% Democratic county in the future that will anchor Florida Democratic wins.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict Jeb's % in Ohio (general election) on: December 17, 2014, 10:35:14 pm
Jeb is a poor fit for Ohio. Hillary 51-48% just like Obama 2012.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush = Tommy Thompson? on: December 16, 2014, 11:28:36 pm
I know Jeb is not running for Senate like Thompson but both were popular former Governor's who were out of office for a long time and came back in faced hostile primaries and bombed in the GE.


Very solid potential comparison. Popular former governor who might have lost his game. If hillary wins Florida then it's a great comp.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Obama coalition in 2016 on: December 16, 2014, 08:31:17 pm
I'm actually guessing that black turnout won't be down that much. I actually think that younger voters are a bigger concern for Hillary, and many of them might stay home if she doesn't find a way to excite them.

Jeb is a good candidate to continue the GOPs run of miserable performances with young voters. People age 25-35 have such fond memories of his brother's stellar presidency.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush on: December 16, 2014, 07:20:05 pm
I still think Hillary pulls out Florida in that map. Maybe 50-49% but she's strong there.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could North Carolina be more Democratic than Florida in 2016? on: December 16, 2014, 07:12:14 pm
It's super super early but Hillary's Florida polls make her look like no worse than a 50/50 bet even against Jeb. Don't forget how many new residents Florida has since 2002 and the fact that Hillary is stronger than Obama there. Florida's electorate should be about 64% white and the new FL hispanics include a lot of Puerto Ricans who don't care about Jeb.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Obama coalition in 2016 on: December 16, 2014, 07:10:26 pm
Blacks won't turn out at a higher rate than whites but will stay around 13% of the electorate .
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Virginia be more Democratic than Pennsylvania? on: December 14, 2014, 02:05:34 pm
Both can be picked up by Republicans, if they're smart. Pennsylvania can be flipped in 2016 and ditto Virginia, with the right Republican investment in infrastructure and the right Republican outreach.

Pennsylvania, particularly, as an aging white state, can be compelled to vote GOP on the national level. Bush ran quite competitively in Pennsylvania, in fact. Romney, likewise, was very competitive, despite dumping money in it at the last minute.

Point blank asked, I would say Pennsylvania is more Democratic right now, but I can see Pennsylvania shifting redder at the margins - red enough to flip.

Hillary will - at best - run as well as Obama did in Pennsylvania and Virginia. I think it's a strong myth to think that she'll cobble together a different electoral coalition than Obama. The yuppies and wine track won 8 years ago in the Democratic primaries. They aren't relinquishing their grip on the Democratic Party's direction and electoral coalition.

Pennsylvania looks like an easier flip for the GOP than it really is. They can cater to the blue-collar crowd but the state is pretty much unwinnable without inroads in metro Philadelphia.
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Major League Baseball HOT STOVE! on: December 14, 2014, 12:30:28 pm
I think Mets finish second in the NL East and have a chance at the wildcard game. Just their true window opens in 2016 in my opinion.
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Major League Baseball HOT STOVE! on: December 13, 2014, 12:46:17 am
Also idk about the mets...Granderson is terrible (227 lmao)..Wright has NO POWER...and DUDA is never gona hit 30homers again he just got lucky.

If the mets are smart they would trade Duda and Grandjerson and get what value they can.

Duda was just lucky?  He plays at CitiField, clown!

And Granderson has always been a low BA player.  Still had 30 doubles, 20 HRs, 66rbi in a bad offense.  He'll have protection this year in the form of Cuddyer and a fell season of D'Arnaud.  

BTW, Mets made a nice depth move in getting John Mayberry Jr. to start against lefties.  .913 OPS against lefties last year, and has always had pop.  

Mets are a year away, love that rotation of Harvey, DeGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard but they need offense. I expect them to spend next offseason on Heyward or Upton.

Red Sox could have used Lester but come 2018 they'll be happy without that contract. He is good but not in the elite category with Kershaw, Felix, Sale and Bumgarner. Doubt he becomes total junk but if he regresses to career norms with a 3.58 era and loses velocity, in 2017 he could be a league average pitcher making $26 million with a 3.95-4.15 era.

Watch out for Mookie Betts, wouldn't be shocked at all if he's the best leadoff man in baseball this season. Great numbers at all levels and low risk because he doesn't strikeout much. Bogaerts, Castillo along with Hanley, Sandoval, Ortiz, Napoli and Pedroia make that lineup the best in my eyes.
11  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Current NFL playoff seed predictions on: December 13, 2014, 12:30:55 am
AFC: New England, Denver, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
NFC: Green Bay, Seattle, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Detroit, Arizona
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP has the best chance in which of these states in 2016? on: December 12, 2014, 09:47:47 pm
Iowa
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush has a Mitt Romney Problem on: December 12, 2014, 04:11:34 pm
Hillary won't focus on immigration against him, she and Bill will just destroy his brother's economic record.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush has a Mitt Romney Problem on: December 12, 2014, 03:46:44 pm
What's with the whole infatuation with Jeb? His brother's economic record will be a big problem and you can bet with the economy looking better it could hurt him.

Hillary does look strong in FL but Jeb would probably be in a tossup there. Not so sure Jeb is the best candidate to win WI, OH, IA, PA and VA demographically might be tough for the GOP. Seems like the 2012 map is a good baseline with Jeb/Hillary.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Hillary tied with, slightly up on Rs, Biden/Warren down on: December 11, 2014, 09:17:06 pm
PPP seems to suppress favorables and approval ratings across the board. That said, if NC looks like this then Virginia probably looks pretty good for Democrats. Even better than Wisconsin and Iowa possibly.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Hillary tied with, slightly up on Rs, Biden/Warren down on: December 11, 2014, 04:16:02 pm
Looks 2012ish from demographic breakdowns of voting groups.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: One term President 2016 on: December 10, 2014, 02:58:40 pm
Ford would have won in 1976 most likely without Watergate. Possible path for Hillary in 2016 assuming Obama doesn't have anything similar. 

Why would Ford be in office in 1976 without Watergate

I meant to say a Republican would have won in 1976. Could have been Reagan then for all we know.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: One term President 2016 on: December 09, 2014, 11:04:14 pm
Ford would have won in 1976 most likely without Watergate. Possible path for Hillary in 2016 assuming Obama doesn't have anything similar. 
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: One term President 2016 on: December 08, 2014, 08:22:44 pm
I've thought this too, a Hillary win would be similar to a Ford win in 1976 and who knows what would have happened then. May have hastened the GOP realignment or been a train wreck. The demographics in the 2020 election would be probably around 67-68% white, perfect for the Democratic majority to emerge.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Donnelly really set to lose in 2018? on: December 07, 2014, 10:57:05 pm
Too many unknown variables. A strong economy with a popular Clinton might just limit GOP gains to a mere seat or 2 if there's little public discontent. Of course anyone unpopular on the D side would be a problem. If there's an unpopular R then he can win by 20 points.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems on: December 07, 2014, 10:53:22 pm
I think a somewhat  popular Hillary Clinton in 2018 can get enough white voters to split the generic vote 50-50 and limit Democratic losses. Indiana, North Dakota, Montana and Missouri are also much more elastic than Arkansas, Louisiana and Georgia. The Senate really should be a natural GOP controlled branch. They have an advantage with small states unlike the House which can be un gerrymandered.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: December 06, 2014, 11:47:43 pm
Any breakdown of the FL governor results by congressional district? Curious who won the 18th, 26th and 27th, looks pretty close from county level numbers.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Arizona redistricting goes to Supreme Court on: December 04, 2014, 01:00:20 pm
But why would the GOP be okay with this? They really stand to lose so much. They pretty much already control all the big red states without commissions while Dems are restricted in Cali, Washington, New Jersey. If Ds won those 3 and took the New York State senate in a big 2020, that's probably a gain of 14-18 seats right there.

Now let's say Gwen Graham wins the Florida governorship in 2018 and the courts draw the congressional and legislative maps after she vetoes GOP proposals. With changing demographics the Ds win the Florida legislature and then control another big state.

Also look at PA if Wolf wins again and can't rule out Ds winning governors in WI, MI, OH to at least force a court drawn neutral map. Democrats can show outrage at this if the Supreme Court actually rules on it (something tells me they'll dismiss it or not really decide anything) but overturning the Arizona commission almost certainly helps Democrats more than the GOP.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Arizona redistricting goes to Supreme Court on: December 03, 2014, 11:52:58 pm
http://www.nationaljournal.com/washington-inside-out/the-pernicious-effects-of-gerrymandering-20141203

I can't help but root for the GOP to win this case! I would gladly sacrifice 2 seats in AZ for another 8 in Cali and eventual likely control over the WA, NJ process in 2020.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato's First 2016 House Ratings on: December 03, 2014, 11:38:47 pm
AZ-02 is a 50-48 Romney district in an area with demographic trends that suggest it will be blue fairly soon. Wouldn't shock me if it moves left in 2016 even if the country moves right.
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