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February 25, 2017, 11:02:45 am
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who're your top 3 choices for 2020? on: February 23, 2017, 09:17:05 pm
Bullock
Brown
Franken
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Easiest Democratic Map for 2020 on: February 16, 2017, 12:37:13 am


I would say it's this, demographics may push Florida to the left of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin this time. Just getting some turnout in Detroit would flip Michigan back. GOP can still grow in the Milwaukee suburbs too in 2020.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state do Democrats have a better chance of carrying: NC or GA? on: February 07, 2017, 02:37:42 pm
Carolina in 2020 but Georgia after. Once the oldest generation of Georgia dies out, it will be a very tough state for the GOP to hold.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How and when does New England go Republican? on: January 05, 2017, 03:51:16 pm
We started to see that this year. MA swung D and RI, ME had major swings toward the GOP.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Minnesota 2020 = Arizona 1996? on: December 24, 2016, 12:05:14 pm
I don't think the left is going with the Booker/Harris coalition in 2020. The Bernie/Warren voters are younger and I could see a hard swing back leftwards in the Midwest with Warren or Brown as nominee. The elitist wing of the Democratic Party isn't terribly large. If you take the Bernie voters from 2016 and add more minorities, it's a clear win for the left.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What about a Heinrich/Bullock ticket? on: December 22, 2016, 03:30:31 pm
I think Bullock at the top of ticket with a clear ethics message  (citizens  United helps) and a Bernie like economic plan could be very effective. Bullock with someone like Booker as VP is as strong as any possible ticket.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN-01, 07: Hagedorn and Hughes Both Seeking Rematches on: December 22, 2016, 12:31:14 am
GOP Presidential midterm is the wrong time for them.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What happened to gay marriage as an issue? on: December 21, 2016, 05:53:44 pm
Say what you want about Trump, gay marriage was not part of any of his stump speeches and this helped him tremendously with non-religious WWC voters.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: December 20, 2016, 04:07:58 pm
Obama won NJ-2 and 3 in 2012. In a bad GOP year the state could be a wipeout for house Rs.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Party's Future: Patriotism on: December 17, 2016, 08:00:05 pm
I don't think the Democratic establishment is going to be for globalization for much longer. The Bernie/Warren wing is coming in 2020 and I expect the populist left to grab the nomination, either with Warren or someone like Brown/Bullock. Most rank and file Dems are tired of Pelosi too, a smart candidate will run against them as well.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton won college graduates by 9 points but... on: December 16, 2016, 11:06:35 pm
New alliances will form. Remember in 1976 when the south was returning to its Democratic roots and the west coast was likely to remain Republican forever. Beware assuming that 2016 is something with lasting trends and not a 1976. Sure, places like Gwinnett, Cobb and Orange counties will get bluer but that trend was starting long before this year. It just accelerated there.

If Clinton had won I think you'd have seen the rich suburbs keep trending D and GOP would have gained like 10 senate seats in 2018. Now I think Dems have a chance to regain ground in the Midwest, especially because the Bernie/Warren wing is out for blood and I don't see how the establishment is getting the 2020 nomination. I could see a 2020 where Dems gain a lot back in working class areas and only modest gains in the suburbs (if Trump is unpopular of course).
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Warren crash, like Christie did after 2012? on: December 15, 2016, 02:49:11 pm
I think she could not run herself or crash but the Bernie/Warren wing will grab the 2020 nomination. Without a clear frontrunner the debates will matter a ton.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: North Carolina on: December 13, 2016, 07:14:24 pm
You just don't know, 2016 is going to produce some major shifts either way. It may just be beginning though, if Trump is unpopular then the Dems have the chance for a 2020 landslide. I figure he either wins by a few in 2020 or loses by 10% plus. America is due for a realignment (generally in 40-50 year cycles) and 2020 will be 40 since Reagan in 1980.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the rust belt does not improve economically under a Trump presidency... on: December 13, 2016, 07:08:33 pm
I think the Rust Belt can bounce back for Dems in 2020. Remember, at this time in 1976 people would be saying the south is returning to its Democratic roots and the west coast would be Republican for the future. Bernie was VERY popular in upstate NY, MI, WI, MN, IA (would have won the caucus easily if held in March), MT, ND in the places Hillary lost the most ground on Obama. Someone like Warren will have plenty of appeal there if Trump becomes the wreck we all think he may.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: December 09, 2016, 11:20:56 am
I think Dems will try to make IL-06 a pickup in the next round, although Trump may do it for them in 2018 or 2020.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: KY-PPP: Kentucky is Hillary Clinton country (against Rand Paul and Marco Rubio) on: December 08, 2016, 05:16:39 pm
Before we all knew about her emails of course...anyone not campaigning looks better.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020 on: December 07, 2016, 11:33:37 pm
I honestly don't think Warren can be stopped if she runs. She will pick up all the Bernie voters and the opposition will be splintered. If she doesn't run I can see a darkhorse emerging, voters younger than 45 have simply had it with the establishment. Warren/Bullock would be an ideal ticket, focus on government reform and less on social issues.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state will trend the most left/right in 2020? on: December 07, 2016, 11:26:56 pm
For MN to trend right, Trump will have to gain with educated whites. I figure the biggest left trend will be in the Dakotas/Montana/Kansas, places that are less authoritarian trend anti-incumbent in general. A Bernie type of Dem might make Montana surprisingly close.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: December 04, 2016, 08:42:34 pm
Doubt it. Trump won Berks county by enough he probably won the 6th by a few points.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Chances Dems take the house in 2020 if Trump is awful? on: November 30, 2016, 01:00:36 am
Very high. The results in Cali show Dems have a much easier path to the house than the media believes.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Special Election to Replace Price (GA-6) on: November 30, 2016, 12:57:19 am
Because of turnout patterns the special election is almost impossible. By 2020 if Trump is unpopular this definitely could flip though.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Are Iowa and Ohio now red states? on: November 29, 2016, 10:50:17 pm
Bernie OR Biden would have won Iowa.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: West Virginia Poll: Manchin up double digits against possible 2018 challengers on: November 29, 2016, 10:48:43 pm
It is just harder to win in a midterm now for Rs in these seats. Look at 2002 even, Dems won places like MT, SD that they probably lose had Gore won in 2000.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 House elections Megathread on: November 29, 2016, 10:45:14 pm
I think FL-27 could be winnable for Dems in 2018. It really reminds me of what happened to Rahall in WV-3 before 2014. Margins kept decreasing until an unfavorable midterm cycle.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Very early House 2018 rating on: November 29, 2016, 10:43:27 pm
If the southern CA districts vote for House like they did for President, the GOP has a harder challenge than expected.
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