Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 07, 2016, 11:06:46 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 66
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: December 04, 2016, 08:42:34 pm
Doubt it. Trump won Berks county by enough he probably won the 6th by a few points.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Chances Dems take the house in 2020 if Trump is awful? on: November 30, 2016, 01:00:36 am
Very high. The results in Cali show Dems have a much easier path to the house than the media believes.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Special Election to Replace Price (GA-6) on: November 30, 2016, 12:57:19 am
Because of turnout patterns the special election is almost impossible. By 2020 if Trump is unpopular this definitely could flip though.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Are Iowa and Ohio now red states? on: November 29, 2016, 10:50:17 pm
Bernie OR Biden would have won Iowa.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: West Virginia Poll: Manchin up double digits against possible 2018 challengers on: November 29, 2016, 10:48:43 pm
It is just harder to win in a midterm now for Rs in these seats. Look at 2002 even, Dems won places like MT, SD that they probably lose had Gore won in 2000.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 House elections Megathread on: November 29, 2016, 10:45:14 pm
I think FL-27 could be winnable for Dems in 2018. It really reminds me of what happened to Rahall in WV-3 before 2014. Margins kept decreasing until an unfavorable midterm cycle.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Very early House 2018 rating on: November 29, 2016, 10:43:27 pm
If the southern CA districts vote for House like they did for President, the GOP has a harder challenge than expected.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Dems in Trump CD's; Reps in Clinton CD's on: November 29, 2016, 12:57:11 am
If Trump's job approval ratings match his personal favorables he has zero chance. The Dems will have an open primary with 6-8 candidates or so, without a clear favorite. The competition will be good. Someone like Bullock could be strong in Iowa and New Hampshire for sure. If you combine that with outreach to African Americans, win South Carolina and game over. His background fighting the citizens United decision would be good cred, especially if Trump is 4 years of a mess.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Dems in Trump CD's; Reps in Clinton CD's on: November 28, 2016, 11:39:29 pm
People are tired of the stagnating wages, excessive executive pay and cost of college even in the richest districts. People making 100-200K a year are tired of this garbage already as well. As long as the Dems stick with progressivism and not full-blown communism it will be okay. No 90% tax rates but they can safely advocate for higher rates.

Bullock would be fine for 2020, he's pro choice and could be someone with a Bernie like message. With Trump in office, the professionals have nowhere else to go. He would be a good candidate for the long lost 400 electoral vote landslide. A lot of younger Dems don't mind this type of Democratic Party, people are falsely assuming the suburban gains for Hillary are incompatible with winning more working class whites.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Dems in Trump CD's; Reps in Clinton CD's on: November 28, 2016, 10:28:34 pm
Disagree, I think an economic message geared toward the working class of all races is what is needed by the Democratic Party. To win the Senate they will need these midwestern states. The Senate will be a bigger problem next decade than the House. Many of the midwestern Trump voters would have chosen Biden, Bernie or Kaine over Trump. They just hate Hillary's elitist form of liberalism.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 28, 2016, 10:15:44 pm
I think if Trump signs a tax cut for the rich and /or signs the Ryan medicare thing, it puts the Obama 2012 districts in play as well. This includes NJ-2, NJ-3, about 5 NY seats, ME-2, IA-1, IA-3. I don't even include marginal seats like PA-6, PA-8, MI-11, FL-18 and others that surely are in play in a wave year without a doubt. Seats like NJ-7 could be an opportunity if Trump falls with white professionals further.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats, who is your ideal candidate for 2020 with a >0% chance of running? on: November 28, 2016, 09:47:43 pm
Someone like Steve Bullock and a VP like Booker or a woman elected Governor in 2018.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: NY State Senate 31-31 with the 8th still undecided between Venditto and Brooks on: November 27, 2016, 05:15:08 pm
A Trump debacle might finally crack the GOP state senate here.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Dems in Trump CD's; Reps in Clinton CD's on: November 26, 2016, 03:10:46 pm
NJ-7 and 11 are probably quite close.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 26, 2016, 10:35:08 am
I think states would discover that an outright ban just creates a huge black market. Eventually most would allow first trimester. That said, I'm not certain Roberts would vote to overturn it. I can't see the GOP benefiting electorally. To me this seems like 1976 all over again, the GOP majority is not built on a solid foundation.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 26, 2016, 01:14:01 am
I'm not sure they're gone, I suspect Bernie would have done very well in these places. This is a very swingy group of voters in the midwest. Unlike the southern working class, many are pro choice. If Trump tries tax cuts these are the types who will look elsewhere.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Steve Bullock 2020 on: November 26, 2016, 12:26:20 am
I like the idea of Bullock a lot, the working class left was missing this year but Trump may create a market for it. Adopting some of Bernie's rhetoric makes sense and his age is near perfect for 2020. The Dems need a real DC outsider and free of the DC baggage that is certain to result over the next 4 years. Bullock with a woman VP from the Democratic Governor class of 2018 in the Midwest or Florida would be just about perfect. Bullock wouldn't fire up urban base but simply not being Trump will be enough there. If Trump is unpopular it could be 1980 all over again. You can picture the landslide, Texas, Georgia and Arizona going blue along with a big leftward swing in the upper plains and midwest.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 26, 2016, 12:18:59 am
By my count there are about 32-35 Republicans in districts that either 1) Hillary won in 2016 or  2) Obama won in 2012. This does not include marginal GOP seats that voted Trump and Romney like PA-6,8,16, FL-18, MI 6,7,11, NY-22,23.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 25, 2016, 11:23:00 pm
It's extremely clear from these numbers that if Trump is unpopular in 2018-2020, the Dems have a shot to crack the house. In the 2020s I expect the Senate to be a bigger challenge for Dems than the House. It makes sense to try hard to win back the Midwest and let demographics take care of the sunbelt.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: November 25, 2016, 08:32:34 pm
Between the suburban Texas districts, California districts and the upstate NY/Midwestern districts that Obama won in 2012, the Democrats path to the House is a lot clearer than people think in the event Trump becomes unpopular.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Senate race in WI on: November 24, 2016, 03:58:26 pm
Seats like this are hard to pick off for the GOP with an incumbent R midterm. Had Hillary won it's a different story.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can the Democrats win back the House without an anti-Trump wave? on: November 20, 2016, 11:29:05 am
Exactly. Too many variables to predict what is going to happen now. It could be a Democratic wave, it could be a nothing year. Something like 2002 where most Dems like Tester, McCaskill win re election isn't out of the question either with most GOP retaining house seats.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can the Democrats win back the House without an anti-Trump wave? on: November 20, 2016, 11:12:01 am
Not without a wave but many in the media are vastly underestimating the Dems odds. If Trump turns this whole thing into a circus, 24 seats is a pretty realistic gain if his approval is 33%.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Obama Coalition on: November 14, 2016, 07:44:05 pm
I think it's entirely possible Obama plays the role that Nixon did for Reagan's coalition. A 2020 Democratic sweep would set that up.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Well, let's talk about the 2018 senate elections on: November 10, 2016, 10:48:27 pm
I could see 1 Senate seat and 40 House seats..no joke.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 66


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines