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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is it feasible for Jeb to beat Hillary? on: August 02, 2015, 08:21:46 pm
Bush fatigue is strong, clinton fatigue is real but they cancel each other out. Obama voters stick with the Dems, romney voters stick with the GOP. Clinton wins.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden vs. Bush on: August 01, 2015, 08:10:25 pm
The GOP is not winning New Mexico, period. To win Nevada, they pretty much have to improve 20 points with Latinos, a modest gain isn't enough.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden vs. Bush on: August 01, 2015, 02:08:27 pm
My gut tells me Biden would pull off Virginia. What is it with GOP on this board and Nevada? With its demographics it's unwinnable unless they pull 300+ EV.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Biden vs. Bush on: August 01, 2015, 01:39:32 pm


I think Jeb would start with an early lead but Biden would attack him well under the dynasty argument and for wishing to restore those who caused the financial crisis. Something like a 50-47.5% win for Biden.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac National: Close race between Clinton and Bush/Walker on: July 30, 2015, 09:59:06 pm
the sample has more R's than D's
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Marist: Trump and Clinton ahead, momentum for Kasich. on: July 26, 2015, 11:12:42 pm
Hillary's favorables are down but these polls seem a bit overboard. It might be that they are over sampling GOP primary voters in the general election matchups?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W. endorsing brother Jeb: would it help Jeb or hurt him? on: July 26, 2015, 11:11:10 pm
I'm not gonna bother to read your entire essay there but the economic growth during W was all a bubble. Jeb hasn't even been hit on this yet by anyone. The GOP doesn't realize how badly the Dems will absolutely destroy Jeb Bush on this. The idea that he's using the same economic team that got us into this mess is pretty much a point blank shot for the Clinton's. Of course the GOP could always have a Kasich or Rubio who could take advantage of Hillary's issues but that would be too smart of them.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac polls of CO, IA, VA. Clinton in big trouble. on: July 26, 2015, 10:18:37 pm
If there was any real chance Hillary gets derailed, Sanders is still not the nominee. Warren will jump in if this happened, no doubt.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At what point will GOP donors be stunned that no one wants another Bush on: July 15, 2015, 11:27:28 pm
Find me the white working class voters who voted for Bush and Obama? That's the group most likely to be Kerry/McCain/Romney. I don't see Hillary losing the Bush-Obama types, a group that is mainly educated whites and a few minorities.

W's favorable rating is still miserable compared to other ex President's. Even Carter's is solid and everyone knows he wasn't a good president. Wait until the attack ads hit Jeb and the country gets a friendly reminder of who's in charge if the GOP wins.

Essentially Jeb has to convince people to buy a car from the dealer that ripped them off last time instead of support the reliable brand in Hillary. Tell me that's an easy task. It's not as simple as saying that Dems support Clinton and Rs support Jeb, we know this. The Clinton brand is still viewed as competent, if a bit shady. The idea of Jeb advocating 4% growth and using the same team his brother had -9% growth in 2008 with is going to get the GOP nowhere fast.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / At what point will GOP donors be stunned that no one wants another Bush on: July 14, 2015, 09:47:37 pm
I can just see October 2016, Jeb runs a fairly moderate campaign but never pulls closer than 3 points within Clinton. I think their donors are in complete denial about how bad the Bush brand is. Hillary hasn't even attacked yet, wait until she runs ads showing images of Iraq, Katrina and the recession. She can point out that Jeb has hired large parts of W's team.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: VA: Clinton '16 vs. Obama '12 on: June 28, 2015, 04:41:34 pm
this isn't 2004, the Bush name is tarnished and Jeb will have a Romney 2012 like ceiling in VA and elsewhere.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Bush so underrated? on: June 25, 2015, 11:16:39 pm
The idea that Bush is by seeming moderate and reasonable on immigration solves everything is absurd. He won't get more than 35% of Latinos if that, this is 2016 after 10 years of blatant race baiting by the GOP. Watch Clinton run ads showing images of Katrina, Iraq and the recession. She can claim that the GOP wants to restore the very same people who caused the mess we were in and point to all W's advisors Jeb has. The Clinton's aren't stupid, they know they can hit and hit hard.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs Trump on: June 21, 2015, 11:16:13 pm
Don't spend that much time convincing yourself Trump would win anywhere over 191 electoral votes. It ain't happening. The guy is a complete clown and never will win the nomination, much less the presidency. It's fun to think about but Trump is not serious.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary do better or worse in the EC than Obama 2012 if up against Jeb? on: June 21, 2015, 09:53:08 pm
What Bush won in 2004 isn't too relevant. I don't think many Latinos have a terribly fond memory of the W administration.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary do better or worse in the EC than Obama 2012 if up against Jeb? on: June 21, 2015, 08:31:38 pm
The Bush name is toxic, Florida is not safe, polls have Hillary ahead in Florida and that's with Jeb having high name recognition and a home state boost. Call it 52-46.5% and North Carolina flipping blue.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: virginia? on: June 20, 2015, 10:50:55 pm
Virginia wasn't winnable for the Dems in a year where the GOP won by 2.5%. Even in 2008 it was a point more R than the national vote. Kerry improved from Gore in the places Obama surged like Loudoun, Prince William, Henrico.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Clinton vs Trump on: June 17, 2015, 11:01:55 pm


Clinton 503 61%
Trump 35 38%
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I think... Repubs will win Ohio but lose Nationally on: June 10, 2015, 07:39:29 pm
I'd make Colorado Democratic. If it's Walker I think both Florida and Virginia can do D and Ohio red. Florida is ripe for the Dems but the home state effect if it's Rubio would lessen the demographic edge.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ohio: Mixed results for Hillary Clinton in match-ups against Republicans, PPP on: June 10, 2015, 05:59:13 pm
Clinton can win Virginia and Florida (with Walker) without Ohio. I don't see Ohio as the tipping point next year, the Dems have better chances with demographics in VA FL CO.

Look at the number of "very liberal" voters who don't like clinton. It's not huge but it is a noticeable group that is hurting her favorables. Not like they'll vote GOP in the fall.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At what point does this become the GOP's possible path to victory? on: May 31, 2015, 10:40:36 am
by the late 2020s though, FL will have an electorate that's under 60% white. How easy will that be for the GOP?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / At what point does this become the GOP's possible path to victory? on: May 30, 2015, 12:36:33 pm


270-268 R

I would guess 2028 ish.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Areas Hillary can do better than Obama in 2016 on: May 22, 2015, 07:36:54 am
I don't think suburban Atlanta will be a bad area for her, Gwinnett is only 42% white so the numbers say Dems should continue to gain.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Areas Hillary can do better than Obama in 2016 on: May 21, 2015, 08:25:20 pm
Of course there's the deadcat bounce she will probably get in KY, WV, AR that will get her a couple points on Obama but not nearly enough to win. What places in key states do you think she can do better than Obama in? I would say:

Southwest PA/Eastern OH- Against someone like Jeb she might be able to win counties like Fayette outright. The PA/OH border is probably the biggest risk for a GOP flip compared to 2008, one they can ill-afford.

Palm Beach County, FL- Obama's 2012 was the worst Democratic showing here in a long time but the county is getting more diverse and Hillary probably won't slip much more with Jewish voters.

Northern FL- GOP's vote is pretty much maxed out, not much room for R's to grow in this inelastic region.

Atlanta suburbs- not a swing state yet but Henry County should flip blue based on the 2014 Senate numbers and Gwinnett in a Presidential year could be down to a 5% GOP margin.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Any conceivable circumstance in which 2016 is a landslide for Hillary? on: May 18, 2015, 09:37:38 pm
I think Cruz would lose NC, IN, AZ, MO to Hillary. GA is too polarized and Hillary would probably lose it with around 48%.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pennsylvania in 2016 on: May 09, 2015, 09:01:09 pm
1-2% trends are not proof of a move toward the GOP, it's not like VA where theres a steady move leftward each cycle. I could see Hillary winning places like Fayette if she faces Bush, she's a stronger fit than Obama in this state.
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