Doubt she'd lose Colorado in a landslide win. She might win 54% nationally and get 51-52% in Colorado but with Presidential turnout she should win it. Not sure the GOP is winning everything there, Hickenlooper might survive and they might only win one legislative house.
New Jersey is not going red in 2016, Christie's approvals there are way down and doubtful he can beat Hillary. A lot of Republicans are overconfident about 2016, Obama in the mid 40s probably will not sink Hillary. Hillary had led Jeb and Rubio in every single Florida poll and the electorate there will only be around 64% white in 2016.
Does anyone think Nunn has a better chance to win a runoff if the GOP wins the Senate on election day? Regardless, winning the election day vote on Nov 4 is a tremendous accomplishment and would signal Hillary has a real shot at Georgia with an even more diverse electorate.
I think this is a realistic PVI map (that means if the country splits exactly 50/50, not who wins each state). Florida and Wisconsin are the tough ones here. A lot of people here don't think Florida can lean D but that only takes a 2.99% trend. In years with new candidates (2000, 2008) that number is very common either way as opposed to re-election years (2004, 2012).
Winning PA and FL is a start for this year and having VA after 2021 would be nice as well. Even if the GOP wins MI and WI, those states along with OH will have open seats in 2018. A court drawn legislative map is a substantial upgrade over what we have now and should give dems a fair shot in a favorable year.
Probably a couple points less white and more latino. That's about it. Buck won whites by 7% and lost by 1.6. I assume Udall can lose whites by 9-10 with demographic change and win but once his deficit gets into the 11-13% range like the PPP poll I don't see it.
Gardner is clearly ahead now, you can argue that. The vote by mail and same day registration is a wildcard though. Considering Dems already beat polling numbers before this it adds something more to the uncertainty. Really will not know the truth until 11 pm in two weeks.