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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / At what point does this become the GOP's possible path to victory? on: Today at 12:36:33 pm


270-268 R

I would guess 2028 ish.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Areas Hillary can do better than Obama in 2016 on: May 22, 2015, 07:36:54 am
I don't think suburban Atlanta will be a bad area for her, Gwinnett is only 42% white so the numbers say Dems should continue to gain.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Areas Hillary can do better than Obama in 2016 on: May 21, 2015, 08:25:20 pm
Of course there's the deadcat bounce she will probably get in KY, WV, AR that will get her a couple points on Obama but not nearly enough to win. What places in key states do you think she can do better than Obama in? I would say:

Southwest PA/Eastern OH- Against someone like Jeb she might be able to win counties like Fayette outright. The PA/OH border is probably the biggest risk for a GOP flip compared to 2008, one they can ill-afford.

Palm Beach County, FL- Obama's 2012 was the worst Democratic showing here in a long time but the county is getting more diverse and Hillary probably won't slip much more with Jewish voters.

Northern FL- GOP's vote is pretty much maxed out, not much room for R's to grow in this inelastic region.

Atlanta suburbs- not a swing state yet but Henry County should flip blue based on the 2014 Senate numbers and Gwinnett in a Presidential year could be down to a 5% GOP margin.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Any conceivable circumstance in which 2016 is a landslide for Hillary? on: May 18, 2015, 09:37:38 pm
I think Cruz would lose NC, IN, AZ, MO to Hillary. GA is too polarized and Hillary would probably lose it with around 48%.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pennsylvania in 2016 on: May 09, 2015, 09:01:09 pm
1-2% trends are not proof of a move toward the GOP, it's not like VA where theres a steady move leftward each cycle. I could see Hillary winning places like Fayette if she faces Bush, she's a stronger fit than Obama in this state.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-UNH/WMUR: Clinton leads Cruz, ties Walker, trails Bush/Paul/Rubio on: May 08, 2015, 11:17:26 am
293 GOP primary voters and 229 Democratic ones. Not stunning this is the result you get with that sample. A good pollster wouldn't run a statewide general poll with a sample like that.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Hillary leads all Republicans on: May 01, 2015, 04:03:06 pm
Virginia is higher than Iowa on the Dems 2016 list.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-CNU: Bush leads Clinton, other Republicans slightly behind on: April 27, 2015, 08:39:09 am
45% R or lean R, 40% D or lean D with party ID. Not happening.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should the Republicans contest ME-02? on: April 26, 2015, 03:22:05 pm
They won't win ME-2 without NH.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot on: April 22, 2015, 01:54:11 pm
Romney and McCain were both very good fits for NH. Both lost the state by more than their national number. It doesn't make sense for the GOP to run expensive ads in the Boston media market and I see NH-1 flipping back to the Democrats.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: Rubio & Bush with leads against Hillary on: April 22, 2015, 01:52:24 pm
Hillary won't win by 6% nationally or more and lose FL. PPP showing her up 2-3% on Jeb and Rubio is probably the most realistic.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC National Poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 14-24 points on: April 20, 2015, 09:15:16 am
If clinton wins by half these margins it's a bloodbath for the GOP.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which of these Southern states are REALLY trending Democratic? on: April 18, 2015, 10:47:23 pm
Not sure there's a huge GOP swing going to happen among whites in western NC. A lot of Asheville area is northern retirees, that's why the margins among whites aren't as huge. A lot of other counties in western NC Obama got 35%, meaning probably 30% white vote or so. That's not far off from what Obama got in many Appalachian counties.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama approval in the states on: April 17, 2015, 06:04:25 pm
If he's 49/47 in Wisconsin it's very consistent with his 47/50 nationally.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Obama approval in the states on: April 17, 2015, 03:16:03 pm
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html?hp=t2_r#.VTFpspTF8rM

Another big mistake, comparing Obama's state approvals in firms like PPP, Quinnipiac with national ones such as Gallup, Rasmussen. You can't get a good picture with different firms.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the (hypothetical) %-results of Hillary vs. GOPers in your state/country on: April 14, 2015, 10:17:28 pm
Florida:

Clinton 50-49 Bush
Clinton 52-47 Walker

Palm Beach:

Clinton 59-40 Bush
Clinton 61-38 Walker

Hillary is a much better fit for this county than Obama.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary win a county in WV-03? on: April 13, 2015, 10:37:51 am
Nope, it will swing D but she will go from like 34% to 38% in places like McDowell. Not nearly enough.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver: 2016 is a tossup; most conventional wisdom analysis is flimsy on: April 12, 2015, 01:16:42 pm
Remember that some of these models aren't always accurate. 1988 was supposed to be close, 2000 was supposed to be a Gore blowout. I think we are more like the late 1800s in that everyone is polarized. It would help Hillary beat the fundamentals if she faces Jeb and can run on keeping a Bush out of the WH and the people who caused the economic crisis.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clintonís Calculus on Embracing Obama (NYT article) on: April 12, 2015, 12:59:36 am
Iím glad sheís going to use President Obama on the campaign trail. Learn from Al GoreĎs mistakes. Plus, let the Republicans make the mistake of thinking that because it happened to us in 2008, it'll happen to you in 2016. President Obama is sitting in far better shape at this point in his presidency than President Bush was in '07. Things could change, and if it does, then itís probably game over anyways.

Her best path to the presidency has always been to build upon the progress made over President Obamaís two terms, and to remind older voters what happened last time a Republican succeeded a Democrat in the white house.

Jeb would be perfect for that. Can't ask for a better opponent for Hillary, someone unable to take advantage of her weaknesses.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Huckabee does best against Hillary on: April 10, 2015, 02:38:43 pm
It's tough to depend on a long-term GOP majority in NC when the margins of victory in 2012, 2014 were 2 and 1.6 points. The shift in demographics by 2020 should take care of that. A GOP candidate needs at least a 5% win in NC to be winning in VA as well. Dems will take the VA/NC split from 2012 again in 2016.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary will win Colorado on: April 09, 2015, 09:53:16 pm
The latte crowd isn't exactly a prime block to vote GOP though. I could see Colorado looking like a tossup again on election day and Hillary winning it by 5 points like last time.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary isn't winning Iowa. on: April 09, 2015, 04:41:03 pm
GOP can win Iowa but they need more flips. If Virginia stays blue then Iowa may go for a losing R.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary will win Colorado on: April 09, 2015, 04:38:39 pm
I think presidential turnout patterns should help her win it, even if narrowly. Gardner ran a very strong campaign, Udall ran an awful one and yet Gardner won with only 48% in a very GOP friendly year. Dems were one state senate seat away from keeping everything in the legislature as well.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Hillary quite weak, as Paul runs best against her on: April 09, 2015, 08:43:47 am
Virginia meanwhile looks like it's continuing it's Democratic trend. Hillary by winning VA WI NV NH PA can win without Colorado Iowa Florida Ohio.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: my electoral map of April on: April 08, 2015, 05:02:27 pm
Carson is gonna beat Clinton in Connecticut!
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