We keep hearing that Ohio is going to decide things this year. Does anyone actually believe this to be the case? There is about a 95-99% chance that Ohio is not the tipping point and it looks more on par with NC this year in terms of importance. I would put CO NV WI VA IA PA FL NC/OH from left to right.
Hillary may win places like Chester by double digits and get over 60-62% in Montgomery, numbers that will offset Trump gains in places like Luzerne. Can see Trump underperforming in places like Lancaster too.
This pollster just wanted to give Rubio an excuse to run. His approvals are 13% higher here than PPP while the other GOP run in line with other polls. Rubio is going to have to explain why he's supporting Trump and why he doesnt go his job.
Yes, Clinton will get over 60% in Orange, 65% in Dade and do better than Obama 2012 in Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough. She may also flip a county like Sarasota if she wins by a lot. Volusia is a solid place for Trump so if Hillary somehow won there it would likely be a weak flip.