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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: VA: Clinton '16 vs. Obama '12 on: June 28, 2015, 04:41:34 pm
this isn't 2004, the Bush name is tarnished and Jeb will have a Romney 2012 like ceiling in VA and elsewhere.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Bush so underrated? on: June 25, 2015, 11:16:39 pm
The idea that Bush is by seeming moderate and reasonable on immigration solves everything is absurd. He won't get more than 35% of Latinos if that, this is 2016 after 10 years of blatant race baiting by the GOP. Watch Clinton run ads showing images of Katrina, Iraq and the recession. She can claim that the GOP wants to restore the very same people who caused the mess we were in and point to all W's advisors Jeb has. The Clinton's aren't stupid, they know they can hit and hit hard.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs Trump on: June 21, 2015, 11:16:13 pm
Don't spend that much time convincing yourself Trump would win anywhere over 191 electoral votes. It ain't happening. The guy is a complete clown and never will win the nomination, much less the presidency. It's fun to think about but Trump is not serious.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary do better or worse in the EC than Obama 2012 if up against Jeb? on: June 21, 2015, 09:53:08 pm
What Bush won in 2004 isn't too relevant. I don't think many Latinos have a terribly fond memory of the W administration.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary do better or worse in the EC than Obama 2012 if up against Jeb? on: June 21, 2015, 08:31:38 pm
The Bush name is toxic, Florida is not safe, polls have Hillary ahead in Florida and that's with Jeb having high name recognition and a home state boost. Call it 52-46.5% and North Carolina flipping blue.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: virginia? on: June 20, 2015, 10:50:55 pm
Virginia wasn't winnable for the Dems in a year where the GOP won by 2.5%. Even in 2008 it was a point more R than the national vote. Kerry improved from Gore in the places Obama surged like Loudoun, Prince William, Henrico.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Clinton vs Trump on: June 17, 2015, 11:01:55 pm


Clinton 503 61%
Trump 35 38%
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I think... Repubs will win Ohio but lose Nationally on: June 10, 2015, 07:39:29 pm
I'd make Colorado Democratic. If it's Walker I think both Florida and Virginia can do D and Ohio red. Florida is ripe for the Dems but the home state effect if it's Rubio would lessen the demographic edge.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Ohio: Mixed results for Hillary Clinton in match-ups against Republicans, PPP on: June 10, 2015, 05:59:13 pm
Clinton can win Virginia and Florida (with Walker) without Ohio. I don't see Ohio as the tipping point next year, the Dems have better chances with demographics in VA FL CO.

Look at the number of "very liberal" voters who don't like clinton. It's not huge but it is a noticeable group that is hurting her favorables. Not like they'll vote GOP in the fall.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At what point does this become the GOP's possible path to victory? on: May 31, 2015, 10:40:36 am
by the late 2020s though, FL will have an electorate that's under 60% white. How easy will that be for the GOP?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / At what point does this become the GOP's possible path to victory? on: May 30, 2015, 12:36:33 pm


270-268 R

I would guess 2028 ish.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Areas Hillary can do better than Obama in 2016 on: May 22, 2015, 07:36:54 am
I don't think suburban Atlanta will be a bad area for her, Gwinnett is only 42% white so the numbers say Dems should continue to gain.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Areas Hillary can do better than Obama in 2016 on: May 21, 2015, 08:25:20 pm
Of course there's the deadcat bounce she will probably get in KY, WV, AR that will get her a couple points on Obama but not nearly enough to win. What places in key states do you think she can do better than Obama in? I would say:

Southwest PA/Eastern OH- Against someone like Jeb she might be able to win counties like Fayette outright. The PA/OH border is probably the biggest risk for a GOP flip compared to 2008, one they can ill-afford.

Palm Beach County, FL- Obama's 2012 was the worst Democratic showing here in a long time but the county is getting more diverse and Hillary probably won't slip much more with Jewish voters.

Northern FL- GOP's vote is pretty much maxed out, not much room for R's to grow in this inelastic region.

Atlanta suburbs- not a swing state yet but Henry County should flip blue based on the 2014 Senate numbers and Gwinnett in a Presidential year could be down to a 5% GOP margin.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Any conceivable circumstance in which 2016 is a landslide for Hillary? on: May 18, 2015, 09:37:38 pm
I think Cruz would lose NC, IN, AZ, MO to Hillary. GA is too polarized and Hillary would probably lose it with around 48%.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pennsylvania in 2016 on: May 09, 2015, 09:01:09 pm
1-2% trends are not proof of a move toward the GOP, it's not like VA where theres a steady move leftward each cycle. I could see Hillary winning places like Fayette if she faces Bush, she's a stronger fit than Obama in this state.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-UNH/WMUR: Clinton leads Cruz, ties Walker, trails Bush/Paul/Rubio on: May 08, 2015, 11:17:26 am
293 GOP primary voters and 229 Democratic ones. Not stunning this is the result you get with that sample. A good pollster wouldn't run a statewide general poll with a sample like that.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Hillary leads all Republicans on: May 01, 2015, 04:03:06 pm
Virginia is higher than Iowa on the Dems 2016 list.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-CNU: Bush leads Clinton, other Republicans slightly behind on: April 27, 2015, 08:39:09 am
45% R or lean R, 40% D or lean D with party ID. Not happening.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should the Republicans contest ME-02? on: April 26, 2015, 03:22:05 pm
They won't win ME-2 without NH.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-PPP: Clinton leading by a lot on: April 22, 2015, 01:54:11 pm
Romney and McCain were both very good fits for NH. Both lost the state by more than their national number. It doesn't make sense for the GOP to run expensive ads in the Boston media market and I see NH-1 flipping back to the Democrats.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: Rubio & Bush with leads against Hillary on: April 22, 2015, 01:52:24 pm
Hillary won't win by 6% nationally or more and lose FL. PPP showing her up 2-3% on Jeb and Rubio is probably the most realistic.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CNN/ORC National Poll: Clinton leads Republicans by 14-24 points on: April 20, 2015, 09:15:16 am
If clinton wins by half these margins it's a bloodbath for the GOP.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which of these Southern states are REALLY trending Democratic? on: April 18, 2015, 10:47:23 pm
Not sure there's a huge GOP swing going to happen among whites in western NC. A lot of Asheville area is northern retirees, that's why the margins among whites aren't as huge. A lot of other counties in western NC Obama got 35%, meaning probably 30% white vote or so. That's not far off from what Obama got in many Appalachian counties.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Obama approval in the states on: April 17, 2015, 06:04:25 pm
If he's 49/47 in Wisconsin it's very consistent with his 47/50 nationally.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Obama approval in the states on: April 17, 2015, 03:16:03 pm
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-approval-ratings-swing-states-117019.html?hp=t2_r#.VTFpspTF8rM

Another big mistake, comparing Obama's state approvals in firms like PPP, Quinnipiac with national ones such as Gallup, Rasmussen. You can't get a good picture with different firms.
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