Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 22, 2014, 04:42:08 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 37
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: Today at 02:54:11 pm
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/30/hillary-clinton-electoral-college-problem

This article might be correct on Iowa and Colorado but it neglects Hillary's numbers in Florida. I also caution against comparing polls from different pollsters in different states.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Suffolk: RIP Udall on: Today at 01:51:35 pm
Gardner is leading in the RCP average by 4.4, Obama and Bennet beat that average by 4.5. Seriously Gardner would win by 2% or so if held today. It's time that pollsters press undecideds a little more.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead on: Today at 09:00:51 am
Going to a runoff. Still, winning the Election Day vote would be a tremendous accomplishment for Georgia Dems.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DEMOCRATS: Should the Democratic Party compete for Missouri in 2016? on: October 21, 2014, 10:49:17 pm
Hillary will have plenty of money, trust me.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2020 is the Election Democrats Should Really Be Focusing On..... on: October 21, 2014, 09:58:45 pm
Yeah that hurt bc California dems could draw a 48-5 map probably if they wanted to.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2020 is the Election Democrats Should Really Be Focusing On..... on: October 21, 2014, 09:46:13 pm
North Carolina is hopeless because the legislature controls redistricting. The best way is for a future liberal Supreme Court to declare their maps unconstitutional 
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2020 is the Election Democrats Should Really Be Focusing On..... on: October 21, 2014, 09:14:37 pm
Winning PA and FL is a start for this year and having VA after 2021 would be nice as well. Even if the GOP wins MI and WI, those states along with OH will have open seats in 2018. A court drawn legislative map is a substantial upgrade over what we have now and should give dems a fair shot in a favorable year.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Clarity Campaign Labs (D): Schauer + 3 on: October 21, 2014, 07:56:01 pm
This race has had almost no good polling.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: October 21, 2014, 01:10:18 pm
The CO senate could be interesting because the districts that the GOP won in the recalls are very Democratic and with even moderate turnout could flip back even in a bad Dem year.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NH-01/NH-02-YouGov: Shea-Porter up 17, Garcia up 5 on: October 21, 2014, 11:37:30 am
NH-2 is a more democratic district, even the GOP barely won in 2010.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: October 21, 2014, 11:33:59 am
Probably a couple points less white and more latino. That's about it. Buck  won whites by 7% and lost by 1.6. I assume Udall can lose whites by 9-10 with demographic change and win but once his deficit gets into the 11-13% range like the PPP poll I don't see it.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: October 21, 2014, 10:58:47 am
Gardner is clearly ahead now, you can argue that. The vote by mail and same day registration is a wildcard though. Considering Dems already beat polling numbers before this it adds something more to the uncertainty. Really will not know the truth until 11 pm in two weeks.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: PPP for National Journal: Walker +1 on: October 21, 2014, 10:53:02 am
Considering the younger voters are the undecideds this one could get interesting
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: October 21, 2014, 10:49:02 am
As long as its still only 1-3 points for Gardner it's in play considering COs history. Still, I saw nothing wrong at all with PPPs sample.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NH-01/NH-02: UNH releases their worst polls yet on: October 20, 2014, 05:48:18 pm
http://www.umass.edu/poll/pdfs/20141020_Toplines.pdf

The idea that Dems will win NH-1 and lose NH-2 is absurd.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Benenson (D): Also Udall +3 on: October 18, 2014, 04:04:43 pm
The dems internals were closer to the result in 2010 and 2012. Most polls had Obama 0-2 point win and yet he won by over 5.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 07:45:45 pm
Still a long 18 days to go and just one poll. That said, there really isn't anything about this sample that should bring questions.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NJ-03, Monmouth: Macarthur in the lead on: October 15, 2014, 10:46:50 pm
It's a swing district, even with its local GOP lean Obama did win it twice and with 52% the final time. In a 2006 style Democratic year it would be at the top of the target list.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NJ-05/Monmouth: Scott Garrett in trouble? on: October 15, 2014, 10:44:48 pm
Definitely a 2016 sleeper...Romney won it by a couple but someone like Paul won't play well. Could see Hillary winning it 55-44 easily if thats who she opposes.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: CNN/ORC: Gardner+4 on: October 15, 2014, 09:08:02 pm
What are the demographics of this poll? I see no link or anything to the actual crosstabs. Even if Dems end up pulling it out in Colorado I have no reason to believe we keep the Senate. Iowa hasn't really had polling issues like CO has.
Focus on 2014, not comparing it to the past like you guys tend to do.

Well it's still an open question if the pollsters have fixed some of their issues with 2010 and 2012 in CO. There's really no point in going nuts over this now because we won't know until election night.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: CNN/ORC: Gardner+4 on: October 15, 2014, 08:56:58 pm
What are the demographics of this poll? I see no link or anything to the actual crosstabs. Even if Dems end up pulling it out in Colorado I have no reason to believe we keep the Senate. Iowa hasn't really had polling issues like CO has.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-SUSA: Nunn+3 on: October 15, 2014, 02:48:48 pm
This country needs more like Nunn, Hagan, Kirk and Collins in the Senate. Would solve a lot of problems.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-SUSA: Nunn+3 on: October 15, 2014, 02:33:55 pm
I think Nunn is more likely to win a runoff if the GOP captures the senate on election day. If it's to decide the Senate then no way but Perdue isn't terribly likable and she's a moderate.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA-SUSA: Nunn+3 on: October 15, 2014, 02:32:18 pm
Just at the beginning of the cycle it seemed odd we would get a GOP senate with wins in IA, CO and losses in NC, GA. It does matter because 2016 becomes a Democratic lock if its 52 R or less but much tougher if they get to 54 or above.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 15, 2014, 02:16:06 pm
Lets just stop the speculation, we know the polls may underestimate the Latino vote and the most recent ones are troubling considering it;s usually at least 2/3 D, not 56-44 etc. On the other hand, Gardner is ahead in every poll and no one should discount that either.

We really will not know the truth until the votes come in, it's pointless to speculate too much. That is why it should remain as a tossup as long as the margin is under 5. Bennet won by 1.6, Obama by 5.5 and both beat their RCP averages by about 4.5 points. Smart pollsters will learn  to correct this problem though.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 37


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines