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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WV-PPP: Trump crushes Clinton on: May 03, 2016, 03:13:24 pm
My guess is Trump could exceed Romney slightly but won't sweep all counties. Hillary can probably win Jefferson vs Trump.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Rassy - National: Trump +2 on: May 02, 2016, 12:45:03 pm
When the media focus becomes about whether Trump is fit for office it's not gonna look pretty for the GOP.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP - Tight race in Ohio on: May 02, 2016, 12:44:17 pm
Hillary will win Florida by more than Ohio this time. Much more room to grow with Hispanics, Jews and white seniors in FL compared to dying factory towns in OH and can't depend on the huge black turnout in Ohio that Obama got. I see VA OR IA being Hillary's 265th ev, PA 285, FL 314, OH 332.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton/Warren (D) vs. Trump/Webb (R) on: April 30, 2016, 10:16:12 pm
Webb wouldnt win VA for Trump or even be close, he never really had a deep connection with voters the way Warner and Kaine do.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats Must Win 30 Seats to Take the House on: April 29, 2016, 05:09:18 pm
It's too early for 2018 panic, as President Hillary would get a national audience and be able to hit the reset button with a lot of the things such as the emails that currently cause her unfavorables.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Pennsylvania in 2016 on: April 24, 2016, 12:50:36 pm
If that NBC poll is anything close to accurate, Trump will get destroyed in eastern PA.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Richmond County, NY (Staten Island) be Trump's best county anywhere? on: April 22, 2016, 08:14:38 am
More votes were cast in the Democratic primary. If Trump wins SI it will be single digits.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: WMUR/UNH-NH: Clinton, Sanders lead Trump, Cruz by a lot on: April 21, 2016, 09:50:31 pm
If this is anywhere near the final result, Ayotte loses.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where will Trump do better in New York? on: April 11, 2016, 11:18:47 pm
NY-11, Staten Island has got to be Trump's best place in the country possibly.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will be the next realignment election? on: April 02, 2016, 09:19:44 am
If the GOP wins in 2024, Dems win the House back in 2026.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A Cruz/Walker ticket could unite the GOP on: March 29, 2016, 07:32:10 pm
Trump isn't going quietly into the night if he's short of 1237 but easily has most delegates. Keep dreaming.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Donald Trump Putting GOP House Majority in Jeopardy on: March 23, 2016, 08:55:53 am
FL-26 went 56-44 Obama last time, with Trump in Miami you're looking at 20% plus possibly considering the demographics. Curbelo is likely screwed.

FL-18 is the type of district that Trump might struggle in with its higher income/education levels. With Murphy on the ballot for Senate I see Dems holding this one too.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders' best county in Florida? on: March 14, 2016, 09:44:16 pm
Alachua easily, Leon has more African-Americans.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-High Point University/SurveyUSA: Republicans ahead of Clinton/Sanders on: March 11, 2016, 02:56:59 pm
Hillary can beat Trump in NC, this poll is 80% white and 40% 65 and older, completely absurd.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the outcomes of the following states in a Trump-Cruz race on: March 10, 2016, 10:59:02 am
These are probably among the worst Cruz states in America. Least religious.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC/WaPo national poll: Clinton 50% Trump 41% on: March 09, 2016, 04:26:35 pm
"Clinton has a 21-point lead over Trump among women, while Trump has a five-point edge among men. Along educational lines, white voters are sharply divided. Trump carries voters without college degrees by 57 to 33 percent; Clinton wins those with college degrees by 52 to 37 percent."

This is exactly where the GOP problem is. They win basically the same margin as 2012 with non-college whites but would get destroyed in rich suburban educated areas.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What exactly is Cruz' path for surpassing Trump? on: March 06, 2016, 07:43:16 pm
Cruz needed LA and KY though. These are heavy Evangelical states. He also needed AR, TN, AL, GA, SC quite honestly.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What exactly is Cruz' path for surpassing Trump? on: March 06, 2016, 05:02:22 pm
Please, polling from 2 months ago from a mediocre pollster does not make Cruz a favorite in CA. I just think Trump even if he's not a majority will have such a delegate lead that you can't take it away from him. Cruz is also just as unlikable as Trump.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / What exactly is Cruz' path for surpassing Trump? on: March 06, 2016, 04:55:17 pm
I know people are talking about a 1 on 1 race but how does Cruz win head to head? All of his best states are over with by 3/15. Does anyone seriously think Trump won't beat him in NY, MD, CT, RI, DE, NJ, CA?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs (D): Clinton leads Trump by 10 on: March 02, 2016, 09:27:16 pm
Obama got 51%, her ceiling is not 49% vs Trump
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A clarion call to my fellow Republicans, now is the time.......... on: March 02, 2016, 05:11:09 pm
Trump would easily beat Cruz H2H in MD PA NY NJ CA, Cruz scares people much more who are not evangelicals.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs (D): Clinton leads Trump by 10 on: March 02, 2016, 12:52:26 pm
Hillary isnt a good fit for CO, but Trump is an awful fit in a very educated state. Few old factory towns for him to thrive in in CO.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Democrats win the House, which seats do you think they win? on: March 01, 2016, 12:08:43 am
Dems would be foolish not to have funds to push for a House run if Trump completely implodes and destroys the GOP brand. There are enough well educated 51-49 Romney districts that could go 54-46 Clinton vs Trump.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump doesn't believe what he says on: February 29, 2016, 09:14:05 pm
Why is anyone shocked? The guy's whole thing is about self-promo, not ideology. He'll throw the GOP base under the bus once he gets the nomination.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: TX-SurveyUSA: Trump vs. Dems close, but Cruz/Rubio easily beat them on: February 27, 2016, 11:00:38 pm
Texas is going red but anything in single digits means Clinton is winning Florida easily and probably competing in Arizona.
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