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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Colorado (PPP): Clinton rebounds, leads all Republicans on: March 19, 2014, 07:40:06 pm
Makes much more sense relative to  national polls than the previous Colorado polls.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Florida Trends: Key Counties on: February 24, 2014, 06:57:18 pm
I think Hillary would pretty easily win Volusia and probably Duval with a chance of flipping back Flagler too. Also see Palm Beach trending D again in 2016, it's demographics really aren't likely to get R's much higher than they are now and Hillary is a PERFECT fit for it with all the NY transplants.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Quinnipiac: Clinton leads all Republicans by at least 9 points on: February 20, 2014, 10:35:56 pm
No way Hillary would lose Colorado and win Ohio by this much. I'm sure things will even out
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Trend of States relative from previous election to national change 2008-2012 on: February 07, 2014, 09:22:47 pm
It's all here anyway, too much work doing that.
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2012&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Hillary still struggling in Colorado, improves against Christie on: February 06, 2014, 08:50:36 pm
Would be nice to see the racial breakdown as well, and also wonder if they used cell phones. You can dismiss any 2016 polls with Hillary losing the white vote only 55-45 and losing the state. Look at the 2012 exits, not gonna happen for the GOP.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Hillary still struggling in Colorado, improves against Christie on: February 06, 2014, 08:46:01 pm
Quinnipiac's 2012 polls in CO ranged from Obama +1 to Romney +5. Final score was Obama +5.4. While CO may definitely be more GOP than the nation if Hillary is strong in PA, VA, FL. If Hillary wins by anything more than 3 nationally I expect CO to go blue.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary vs. Huckabee on: February 05, 2014, 06:39:49 pm
Huckabee is a horrible fit for Colorado, a state that is socially liberal and arguably fiscally conservative( he's the opposite). It is not a religious state and would stay D+1 or more.
New Hampshire would be to Huckabee like West Virginia was to Obama. Most likely would look like the rest of New England. His brand of conservatism really won't play in the northeast or western states.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270 on: January 31, 2014, 10:41:15 pm
Florida is a potential problem for the GOP as its maxed out the white vote in northern FL and losing big in the growing areas. What's happening in parts of Miami to the GOP is similar to what happened to Dems in coal country WV, KY. Would not be shocked to see Dade go 66-33 for Hillary and possibly 70% in the future for Ds. Look at that latest Florida poll and while its early, Hillary would be a great fit for the state. There's little chance the GOP can maintain their majorities in FL with a whites only strategy. FL legislature is secure for now but if a Dem wins in 2014, 2018 the map gets vetoed and Dems can win under a court-drawn one in the 2020s.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP: Surprisingly close race nationally, even with Christie's favorables down on: January 29, 2014, 07:35:08 pm
its the midterm electorate so its a bit whiter than what we'll have in 2016.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Obama's job approval affect trending of individual states in 2016? on: January 27, 2014, 09:54:15 pm
This poll is beyond garbage and should be discarded. Does anyone in their right mind think that Obama is more popular in Texas than Maine and Pennsylvania?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why do you think Clinton will do better in the South? on: January 23, 2014, 07:35:17 pm
I think Hillary would be strong in parts of the "South" but because of a Democratic revival in rural areas. I see her generic R:
Lean D: VA
Tossup/Tilt D:FL
Tossup: NC
Lean R: GA
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton/Warner vs. Cruz/Haley on: January 21, 2014, 08:45:07 pm
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could a GOP presidential win in 2016 be the beginning of the end? on: January 20, 2014, 01:49:04 pm
What about the scenario where maybe Christie becomes President and like Carter takes heat from both sides. For instance, he doesn't move fast enough on social issues and the tea party becomes furious, presenting a possible primary challenge. Meanwhile, he cuts taxes mainly for the upper-class and pisses off the left even more. Of course these are just hypotheticals but what I'm saying is a GOP win in 2016 is filled with possible pitfalls.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Could a GOP presidential win in 2016 be the beginning of the end? on: January 20, 2014, 02:28:07 am
      It's crossed my mind that the Republicans could potentially win everything in 2016 but endure a 4 years not too dissimilar to Jimmy Carter's term. It's possible the Reagan coalition has one last gasp, much like FDR's did in 1976 but long term trends will bite the GOP sooner or later.
 
       Most likely, the tea party and the Koch brothers would make sure abortion restrictions, voting restrictions and tax cuts so into effect. In 2018, the Dems take or hold the Governorships of key states such as FL, PA, MI, OH, NV, CO, WI and maybe even GA in a fairly standard midterm election where the opposing party gains legislative seats (but a bit short of a wave).

    Additionally, the Supreme Court decides to overturn Roe v. Wade, setting the stage for a major backlash in 2020. The incumbent GOP administration also decides to invalidate state laws legalizing pot, gaining popularity with its aging/dying base but angering independents and small government GOP leaners. Along with a minor recession, the incumbent GOP President (thinking Christie or Walker) loses in a 57-42% landslide to a Schweitzer type of Dem. Dems would gain a few state legislatures and the ones they do not result in a court-drawn map that is much more D friendly that the current one. Dems then win big again in 2024.

     Is this exact scenario likely? No. But it is really not that absurd. Even without a divisive ruling on social issues as I said above, by 2020 the GOP may need 63-64% of the white vote to win unless they make inroads with minority voters. At the same time, they have a religious base that thinks doomsday is arriving and social issues would be very much a priority for them. This just shows the dilemma facing the GOP if they are to win. In many ways they could be better if Hillary wins in 2016 and a recession hits, followed by a more moderate Republican in 2020.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP leaders in Michigan don't rule out EV allocation changes on: January 13, 2014, 09:54:15 pm
Michigan has a referenda process so if the GOP tries this they will just get humiliated when its overturned 60-40 in 2015.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: VA-Sen: Gillespie in next week on: January 09, 2014, 10:21:50 pm
I'm thinking 55-44 Warner. Just don't see Gillespie winning Appalachian Virginia by anything even close to Romney or cucinnelli. And the DC burbs are gone for the GOP as is henrico and soon to be Virginia beach.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Republicans - what is your plan for staying competitive in the following states on: December 18, 2013, 08:46:40 pm
Everyone seems to expect Florida to stay slightly to the right but the census suggests otherwise. Many of those northern FL counties were about 80% white and 72-76% Romney. I can't see where the GOP has to go unless they get more black votes. As the GOP maxes out in that part of Florida, Dems will continue to gain in Orlando/Tampa and probably get to 65-70% in Dade as older Cubans die off. In addition, Obama was a fairly poor candidate for Palm Beach, Volusia, Flagler counties.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Republicans - what is your plan for staying competitive in the following states on: December 18, 2013, 08:42:28 pm
I could see a 50/50 national election looking something along these lines:

19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie and Appalachia on: December 14, 2013, 12:02:03 am
I think Hillary could rebound from Obama 2012 in places like Mingo and Logan, WV...as in losing them 60-40 rather than 70-30 or worse.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC-PPP: Clinton leads all but Christie on: December 12, 2013, 09:04:49 pm
Makes sense if NC is R+2, R+3ish
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: No love for Hillary on: December 09, 2013, 11:14:52 pm
CO does look like it could have an R PVI though. Doubt more than R+1 or 2 in the end. Not that Dems wouldn't trade CO for FL in a second.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: No love for Hillary on: December 09, 2013, 07:52:25 pm
How exactly does the GOP win Colorado big without doing any better with whites than last year? http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/CO/president#exit-polls

Considering the Dems edge with Latino voters, I'm skeptical in the small subsamples showing non-Christie repubs with 44%
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-PPP: No love for Hillary on: December 09, 2013, 07:45:40 pm
It's midterm voters so its a bit GOP skewed for 2016..obviously Hillary will dump millions into this state. Remember NH looked like it was R+5 before Romney won the GOP primary there, states tend to revert to normal once the campaign comes. That said, CO has more white voters for the GOP to grab whereas places like FL they've more or less started to max out.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PA-PPP: Christie leads Clinton, all other GOPs trail. on: November 27, 2013, 06:45:55 pm
Christie won't win 22% of Dems or 31% of blacks. That said he is obviously a very strong candidate as he's perceived as moderate and connects well with people emotionally. I suppose hillary could make up PA with Florida as the GOP white vote is near maxed out there but I don't see FL as bluer than PA before 2020.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary's Weakness in the West on: November 25, 2013, 07:34:15 pm
Things tend to sort themselves out once the campaign gets going. Remember when NH looked like an R+5 state until Romney left? Then it reverted to its normal voting pattern at around D+1. Unless the GOP wins the white vote like 58-42 they can forget about CO.
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