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September 01, 2015, 01:10:36 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If it's Clinton vs. Trump on: August 31, 2015, 09:00:58 pm
Trump would be a disaster. He would win no more working class whites than Romney and get smoked with educated whites. Florida probably goes blue by more than the national vote, considering Obama only won 60% Hispanics and still took state.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP or Dems: Doomed if they win in '16 on: August 27, 2015, 11:12:36 pm
What if Hillary was surprisingly popular in 2018? The House and senate might then have minimal change and the governorships of MI WI FL could flip blue.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Disturbingly I think Trump could win on: August 23, 2015, 12:02:59 am
Trump would get absolutely destroyed in metro Philly, like worse than McCain 2008. It's tough to see many 2 time Obama voters going over to Trump. Lets use some common sense, Trump wouldn't go more than 2 days without saying something stupid in the general election.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Wi-Marquette: Clinton leads Walker by 10 on: August 20, 2015, 10:33:46 pm
This poll makes much more sense with the national polls than those Q ones. I think Q has someone with a pro-GOP or pro- Rubio agenda running their show.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1 Term GOP President from 2017-21? on: August 09, 2015, 01:21:00 pm
Kasich has far fewer issues than Jeb, wealthy GOP types are in denial that everyone doesnt love the Bush family.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1 Term GOP President from 2017-21? on: August 09, 2015, 12:31:05 pm
If Jeb argues that restoring the section of his brother's tax cuts and basically implementing his brother's policies that got us growth until 2007 is the way to go, he  will get destroyed. Hillary can easily run ads based on that. Voters haven't been reminded yet about the last Bush but once the ads come, you can be sure it will leave a bitter taste in voters mouths. That's why the GOP is better with a fresh face like Rubio or Kasich.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1 Term GOP President from 2017-21? on: August 08, 2015, 11:59:24 pm
There's really no easy way to put this, just fun to think about the different scenarios. Of course Hillary could be very popular or Kasich, Rubio decide to govern in a more inclusive way than the GOP base wants. Restoring the Bush tax cuts would be a Democratic talking point, especially if  Jeb tried that. If we had a recession under Jeb, the GOP would be absolutely destroyed.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / 1 Term GOP President from 2017-21? on: August 08, 2015, 11:26:35 pm
For all the talk about the GOP field, is the party really better off winning in 2017? If they win and attempt to cut taxes on the wealthy, repeal the healthcare law the new President will hit 40% approval within 8 months. The 2018 elections would then see Dems gaining Governorships in WI, MI, FL and possibly more like OH, GA along with sleeper races. One can see a Carter style single term where the country's changing social attitudes and demographics come roaring back at the GOP. At this point, Dems could win around a 56-57% victory and 400 electoral votes. Redistricting year too.

Of course if Hillary wins the GOP will benefit if a recession occurs during her term and Democratic fatigue is always an issue after 12 years. Not to mention Congress won't change hands before 2020 redistricting.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-WMUR: Clinton in bad shape except against Trump on: August 05, 2015, 09:48:09 pm
Romney was up 8-9 points here in late 2011. The state is getting attention from the GOP and once the NH primary ends it will revert to its usual D+1 ways. Look at all 2012 polls and Romney was a good fit for the state. Sanders popularity in NH probably hurts Hillary for now too.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is it feasible for Jeb to beat Hillary? on: August 02, 2015, 08:21:46 pm
Bush fatigue is strong, clinton fatigue is real but they cancel each other out. Obama voters stick with the Dems, romney voters stick with the GOP. Clinton wins.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden vs. Bush on: August 01, 2015, 08:10:25 pm
The GOP is not winning New Mexico, period. To win Nevada, they pretty much have to improve 20 points with Latinos, a modest gain isn't enough.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Biden vs. Bush on: August 01, 2015, 02:08:27 pm
My gut tells me Biden would pull off Virginia. What is it with GOP on this board and Nevada? With its demographics it's unwinnable unless they pull 300+ EV.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Biden vs. Bush on: August 01, 2015, 01:39:32 pm


I think Jeb would start with an early lead but Biden would attack him well under the dynasty argument and for wishing to restore those who caused the financial crisis. Something like a 50-47.5% win for Biden.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac National: Close race between Clinton and Bush/Walker on: July 30, 2015, 09:59:06 pm
the sample has more R's than D's
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Marist: Trump and Clinton ahead, momentum for Kasich. on: July 26, 2015, 11:12:42 pm
Hillary's favorables are down but these polls seem a bit overboard. It might be that they are over sampling GOP primary voters in the general election matchups?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: George W. endorsing brother Jeb: would it help Jeb or hurt him? on: July 26, 2015, 11:11:10 pm
I'm not gonna bother to read your entire essay there but the economic growth during W was all a bubble. Jeb hasn't even been hit on this yet by anyone. The GOP doesn't realize how badly the Dems will absolutely destroy Jeb Bush on this. The idea that he's using the same economic team that got us into this mess is pretty much a point blank shot for the Clinton's. Of course the GOP could always have a Kasich or Rubio who could take advantage of Hillary's issues but that would be too smart of them.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac polls of CO, IA, VA. Clinton in big trouble. on: July 26, 2015, 10:18:37 pm
If there was any real chance Hillary gets derailed, Sanders is still not the nominee. Warren will jump in if this happened, no doubt.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: At what point will GOP donors be stunned that no one wants another Bush on: July 15, 2015, 11:27:28 pm
Find me the white working class voters who voted for Bush and Obama? That's the group most likely to be Kerry/McCain/Romney. I don't see Hillary losing the Bush-Obama types, a group that is mainly educated whites and a few minorities.

W's favorable rating is still miserable compared to other ex President's. Even Carter's is solid and everyone knows he wasn't a good president. Wait until the attack ads hit Jeb and the country gets a friendly reminder of who's in charge if the GOP wins.

Essentially Jeb has to convince people to buy a car from the dealer that ripped them off last time instead of support the reliable brand in Hillary. Tell me that's an easy task. It's not as simple as saying that Dems support Clinton and Rs support Jeb, we know this. The Clinton brand is still viewed as competent, if a bit shady. The idea of Jeb advocating 4% growth and using the same team his brother had -9% growth in 2008 with is going to get the GOP nowhere fast.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / At what point will GOP donors be stunned that no one wants another Bush on: July 14, 2015, 09:47:37 pm
I can just see October 2016, Jeb runs a fairly moderate campaign but never pulls closer than 3 points within Clinton. I think their donors are in complete denial about how bad the Bush brand is. Hillary hasn't even attacked yet, wait until she runs ads showing images of Iraq, Katrina and the recession. She can point out that Jeb has hired large parts of W's team.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: VA: Clinton '16 vs. Obama '12 on: June 28, 2015, 04:41:34 pm
this isn't 2004, the Bush name is tarnished and Jeb will have a Romney 2012 like ceiling in VA and elsewhere.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Bush so underrated? on: June 25, 2015, 11:16:39 pm
The idea that Bush is by seeming moderate and reasonable on immigration solves everything is absurd. He won't get more than 35% of Latinos if that, this is 2016 after 10 years of blatant race baiting by the GOP. Watch Clinton run ads showing images of Katrina, Iraq and the recession. She can claim that the GOP wants to restore the very same people who caused the mess we were in and point to all W's advisors Jeb has. The Clinton's aren't stupid, they know they can hit and hit hard.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton vs Trump on: June 21, 2015, 11:16:13 pm
Don't spend that much time convincing yourself Trump would win anywhere over 191 electoral votes. It ain't happening. The guy is a complete clown and never will win the nomination, much less the presidency. It's fun to think about but Trump is not serious.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary do better or worse in the EC than Obama 2012 if up against Jeb? on: June 21, 2015, 09:53:08 pm
What Bush won in 2004 isn't too relevant. I don't think many Latinos have a terribly fond memory of the W administration.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary do better or worse in the EC than Obama 2012 if up against Jeb? on: June 21, 2015, 08:31:38 pm
The Bush name is toxic, Florida is not safe, polls have Hillary ahead in Florida and that's with Jeb having high name recognition and a home state boost. Call it 52-46.5% and North Carolina flipping blue.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: virginia? on: June 20, 2015, 10:50:55 pm
Virginia wasn't winnable for the Dems in a year where the GOP won by 2.5%. Even in 2008 it was a point more R than the national vote. Kerry improved from Gore in the places Obama surged like Loudoun, Prince William, Henrico.
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