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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Gov, SUSA: Great Scott in the lead on: May 27, 2014, 10:45:32 pm
One poll but most of the undecideds are blacks and young voters, not good for Scott. Scott will need to win whites by at least 15, 10 won't even come close in FL. Also is the problem of polling Hispanic voters, I highly doubt Scott is winning them outright and we know from 2012 Colorado, Florida, Nevada polls underestimated Obama bc this.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Odds GOP wins 2016 Presidential Election if Clinton doesn't run on: May 25, 2014, 09:43:57 pm
What exactly makes people think the GOP is in great shape with jeb? The democrats can rather easily remind people of the way his brother wrecked the country. Don't think there's much nostalgia for W.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Odds GOP wins 2016 Presidential Election if Clinton doesn't run on: May 22, 2014, 09:56:25 pm
I think dems would be a slight favorite. Obamas approvals even right now are nowhere near Bush numbers and the GOP likely will hit a demographic wall around 48.5%. The GOP is making a mistake by believing just putting Paul and walker up there that victory is a given. Eventually a democratic candidate will develop the universal name recognition that Hillary has. Without improvement among minorities the GOP needs about 61-62% of whites which is not an easy task. GOP has the bigger names if Hillary doesn't run to id expect them to lead early polls.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How likely is a double digit win for Hillary? on: May 15, 2014, 07:31:34 pm
Castro is palinesque in terms of experience but he's a tad more intelligent...or much more.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NBC-Marist: Pryor up 11, KY tied, Perdue leads Nunn by 4 in GA on: May 12, 2014, 10:43:15 pm
Cotton has to be a bit nervous, while most of the other races across the country have stayed even or moved slightly red the past six months this one has moved bluer. Still it's gonna be close but I figured Cotton would be up by this point.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2016 tipping point state on: May 08, 2014, 07:06:42 pm
Nate Cohn had a good piece in the NYT today pretty much saying what I am about FL. Every election has a tipping point, no matter how much of a blowout.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / 2016 tipping point state on: May 07, 2014, 05:49:45 pm
It's a bit too early for this stuff in general but what do people think? Personally I am going with Florida. Obama was terrible in FL and still won it and polls have good news for Hillary as she seems to be above her national numbers here. GOP has more room to grow in OH IA CO.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: If Dems lose the Senate in 2014, will they win it back in 2016? on: May 03, 2014, 12:08:01 pm
Don't rule out the possibility of an open Arizona seat flipping if its Hillary against a mediocre GOP candidate. Obviously WI, IL, PA will be Dems top targets while FL, NC, OH, NH could be flipped as well.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary leads all Republicans on: May 01, 2014, 05:24:33 pm
The GOP needs a true conservative like Cruz! Even if he loses by half of those 26 points it's still humiliation on a national stage.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Can states that haven't gone Republican since 1988 be considered "swing states"? on: April 26, 2014, 12:01:44 pm
They can be swing states if they are right around the national popular vote. I would say PA has a chance to become a genuine swing state but ones like MI, MN still lean D for now.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Colorado (PPP): Clinton rebounds, leads all Republicans on: March 19, 2014, 07:40:06 pm
Makes much more sense relative to  national polls than the previous Colorado polls.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Florida Trends: Key Counties on: February 24, 2014, 06:57:18 pm
I think Hillary would pretty easily win Volusia and probably Duval with a chance of flipping back Flagler too. Also see Palm Beach trending D again in 2016, it's demographics really aren't likely to get R's much higher than they are now and Hillary is a PERFECT fit for it with all the NY transplants.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH-Quinnipiac: Clinton leads all Republicans by at least 9 points on: February 20, 2014, 10:35:56 pm
No way Hillary would lose Colorado and win Ohio by this much. I'm sure things will even out
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Trend of States relative from previous election to national change 2008-2012 on: February 07, 2014, 09:22:47 pm
It's all here anyway, too much work doing that.
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/data.php?year=2012&def=tnd&datatype=national&f=0&off=0&elect=0
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Hillary still struggling in Colorado, improves against Christie on: February 06, 2014, 08:50:36 pm
Would be nice to see the racial breakdown as well, and also wonder if they used cell phones. You can dismiss any 2016 polls with Hillary losing the white vote only 55-45 and losing the state. Look at the 2012 exits, not gonna happen for the GOP.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Hillary still struggling in Colorado, improves against Christie on: February 06, 2014, 08:46:01 pm
Quinnipiac's 2012 polls in CO ranged from Obama +1 to Romney +5. Final score was Obama +5.4. While CO may definitely be more GOP than the nation if Hillary is strong in PA, VA, FL. If Hillary wins by anything more than 3 nationally I expect CO to go blue.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary vs. Huckabee on: February 05, 2014, 06:39:49 pm
Huckabee is a horrible fit for Colorado, a state that is socially liberal and arguably fiscally conservative( he's the opposite). It is not a religious state and would stay D+1 or more.
New Hampshire would be to Huckabee like West Virginia was to Obama. Most likely would look like the rest of New England. His brand of conservatism really won't play in the northeast or western states.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2020 Reapportionment should simplify the GOP path to 270 on: January 31, 2014, 10:41:15 pm
Florida is a potential problem for the GOP as its maxed out the white vote in northern FL and losing big in the growing areas. What's happening in parts of Miami to the GOP is similar to what happened to Dems in coal country WV, KY. Would not be shocked to see Dade go 66-33 for Hillary and possibly 70% in the future for Ds. Look at that latest Florida poll and while its early, Hillary would be a great fit for the state. There's little chance the GOP can maintain their majorities in FL with a whites only strategy. FL legislature is secure for now but if a Dem wins in 2014, 2018 the map gets vetoed and Dems can win under a court-drawn one in the 2020s.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: PPP: Surprisingly close race nationally, even with Christie's favorables down on: January 29, 2014, 07:35:08 pm
its the midterm electorate so its a bit whiter than what we'll have in 2016.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Obama's job approval affect trending of individual states in 2016? on: January 27, 2014, 09:54:15 pm
This poll is beyond garbage and should be discarded. Does anyone in their right mind think that Obama is more popular in Texas than Maine and Pennsylvania?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why do you think Clinton will do better in the South? on: January 23, 2014, 07:35:17 pm
I think Hillary would be strong in parts of the "South" but because of a Democratic revival in rural areas. I see her generic R:
Lean D: VA
Tossup/Tilt D:FL
Tossup: NC
Lean R: GA
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton/Warner vs. Cruz/Haley on: January 21, 2014, 08:45:07 pm
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could a GOP presidential win in 2016 be the beginning of the end? on: January 20, 2014, 01:49:04 pm
What about the scenario where maybe Christie becomes President and like Carter takes heat from both sides. For instance, he doesn't move fast enough on social issues and the tea party becomes furious, presenting a possible primary challenge. Meanwhile, he cuts taxes mainly for the upper-class and pisses off the left even more. Of course these are just hypotheticals but what I'm saying is a GOP win in 2016 is filled with possible pitfalls.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Could a GOP presidential win in 2016 be the beginning of the end? on: January 20, 2014, 02:28:07 am
      It's crossed my mind that the Republicans could potentially win everything in 2016 but endure a 4 years not too dissimilar to Jimmy Carter's term. It's possible the Reagan coalition has one last gasp, much like FDR's did in 1976 but long term trends will bite the GOP sooner or later.
 
       Most likely, the tea party and the Koch brothers would make sure abortion restrictions, voting restrictions and tax cuts so into effect. In 2018, the Dems take or hold the Governorships of key states such as FL, PA, MI, OH, NV, CO, WI and maybe even GA in a fairly standard midterm election where the opposing party gains legislative seats (but a bit short of a wave).

    Additionally, the Supreme Court decides to overturn Roe v. Wade, setting the stage for a major backlash in 2020. The incumbent GOP administration also decides to invalidate state laws legalizing pot, gaining popularity with its aging/dying base but angering independents and small government GOP leaners. Along with a minor recession, the incumbent GOP President (thinking Christie or Walker) loses in a 57-42% landslide to a Schweitzer type of Dem. Dems would gain a few state legislatures and the ones they do not result in a court-drawn map that is much more D friendly that the current one. Dems then win big again in 2024.

     Is this exact scenario likely? No. But it is really not that absurd. Even without a divisive ruling on social issues as I said above, by 2020 the GOP may need 63-64% of the white vote to win unless they make inroads with minority voters. At the same time, they have a religious base that thinks doomsday is arriving and social issues would be very much a priority for them. This just shows the dilemma facing the GOP if they are to win. In many ways they could be better if Hillary wins in 2016 and a recession hits, followed by a more moderate Republican in 2020.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP leaders in Michigan don't rule out EV allocation changes on: January 13, 2014, 09:54:15 pm
Michigan has a referenda process so if the GOP tries this they will just get humiliated when its overturned 60-40 in 2015.
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