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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Bush 2004 Results vs Obama 2012 Results on: February 26, 2015, 09:08:29 pm
Just comparing the % Bush and Obama received can be deceiving. If you compared the margin of victory, Ohio and Colorado would flip to the Democrats. Bush won CO by less than 5, Obama by more than 5. Obama's 3% in Ohio beats Bush's 2.1%.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush's LGBT-friendly inner circle on: February 26, 2015, 09:05:07 pm
Jeb's general election problem will be his brother, being a moderate or such won't matter.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What % of white women will Hillary get? on: February 25, 2015, 09:31:11 pm
Hillary is not losing even by repeating Obamas performance with white women.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dan Malloy for Veep? on: February 22, 2015, 09:07:52 pm
Not sure what he'd bring that compliments Hillary. She could use someone younger like Castro. And if she wants someone more experienced then Kaine makes more sense coming from a swing state along with a Democratic Governor to appoint his replacement.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP primary in Vermont on: February 22, 2015, 03:29:30 pm
Paul or Jeb...maybe get 30% of the total 200 R primary voters in this state!
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Hillary trails by quite a bit in Missouri on: February 21, 2015, 11:02:52 pm
NC and GA may very well stay red because they are inelastic, something Republicans forget is a problem in VA because it may not move much either. Not to mention those FL polls if Jeb isn't the nominee even if he is it's a toss.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Hillary trails by quite a bit in Missouri on: February 21, 2015, 12:42:56 pm
I think Hillary has a better chance of winning Arizona than Missouri. Jeb seems like a lousy candidate in the west, whatever gains he makes with Latinos he loses in whites. Westerners don't like DC insiders and both Jeb and Hillary cancel each other out. Paul is the best for the Mountain West.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO-Remington Research/Missouri Scout: Hillary trails by quite a bit in Missouri on: February 21, 2015, 10:10:21 am
One poll in Kansas doesn't make for a track record.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances on: February 20, 2015, 05:16:29 pm
Typical Republican: "The White House isn't won by a party three times in a row so we can run out someone from the same family as the guy who left the WH with 25% approval 8 years ago."

Good luck trying to explain that to workers in Ohio.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else on: February 19, 2015, 10:26:21 pm
If Jeb is losing WI, IA like that he is probably losing OH as well. There is no path without Ohio for the GOP. And I'm skeptical about Nevada going red, the demographics are just very tough for the GOP and not getting better. Sandoval wins because hes personally popular, not because his party. Virginia is becoming Pennsylvania like for the GOP, don't count on Clinton being held to 50% in the DC suburbs with higher turnout. FL of course is a must win for Jeb or anyone in the GOP and Jeb only ties with his home state edge.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: National Journal: The Emerging Republican Advantage on: February 19, 2015, 08:35:37 pm
Wolf winning re election and Dems gaining FL OH WI MI govs would force a veto of the map at worst. Then the courts likely draw a neutral map and ones that Dems can win in 2022 or 2024. A lot of 2018 is too far to predict, if Hillary governs as a moderate and hits midterms with 56% approval then Dems will be just fine.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances on: February 19, 2015, 08:28:03 pm
Romney did not win voters 18-20, that survey was flawed. You can't reconcile that with the exit poll.
http://elections.nbcnews.com/ns/politics/2012/all/president/#exitPoll

Unless Obama won 80% of 22-24 voters there is zero chance Romney won voters in the age 18-20 range.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else on: February 19, 2015, 08:24:28 pm
Jeb is also a terrible fit for Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin. All of which soured on W and have somewhat revived economically as of late. Seems like all of Hillary's white improvement would be in the northeast and Midwest.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: SC-PPP: All Republicans ahead of Hillary and the other Dems on: February 19, 2015, 08:20:30 pm
Super Bold prediction: Rs get between 53-56% of the vote in South Carolina..yawn.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances on: February 18, 2015, 06:39:48 pm
With only 17 Presidential elections since 1948 that's just not a strong sample size. Even in the history of the country there's only been 57 elections. Every single data point should be looked at, even the late 1800s. Particularly as it was a period of polarization similar to today.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else on: February 18, 2015, 06:31:08 pm
Not sold on Hillary having Virginia troubles based off one poll. And the GOP can't afford to let her do better than Obama with ANY demographic. The math doesn't add up when you begin 3.85 points down and have 4 years of demographic change to counter.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: CO/IA/VA-Quinnipiac: Bush ties Clinton in VA; she leads everyone everywhere else on: February 18, 2015, 08:30:21 am
Judging Quinniipac record in Colorado this is a great poll for her. Virginia seems like an outlier, should do better there but the state also has a lot of white southerners. Seems like it's the white voters in the non-south she runs ahead of Obama with much more than VA NC etc.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NJ: Academics and Model-makers on Hillary Clinton's chances on: February 17, 2015, 11:12:31 pm
A lot of the academics are only looking post WW2, a huge mistake. The best period to look at is probably the late 1800s which had a GOP presidential majority but Democrats often controlled Congress. A lot of the elections were close in the 1880s and gave the GOP 51-47, 52-46 majorities in the 1890s. The problem for today's GOP is that demographics opened up the GOP's margins in the early 1900s, something that can happen for today's Democrats as more minorities become regular voters. And this will eventually trickle down to Congress as it did then.

If the GOP wins in 2016 then they could reverse their decline with young people and minorities but they also could be a one-term wreck like Carter was in 1980.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NJ-Rutgers/Eagleton: Hillary clobbers all Republicans on: February 17, 2015, 06:26:23 pm
Hillary is improving on Obama with whites but certainly more with northern whites than southern.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA/NH/SC-Marist: Clinton leads Bush & Walker in IA & NH; close in SC on: February 15, 2015, 06:37:17 pm
Obama did better in Iowa than New Hampshire in 2012 so it's possible. Still, based on other polls I think Clinton wins NH by more. South Carolina is giving Clinton 44-47% regardless. If it's a bad GOP candidate she can stay close but it's not happening. If Dems lose it will "trend" D and if Dems win it trends R.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: IA/NH/SC-Marist: Clinton leads Bush & Walker in IA & NH; close in SC on: February 15, 2015, 11:26:42 am
Iowa and New Hampshire don't have a lot of the types who turn out disproportionally only in presidential years. The NH poll showing Ayotte down while Clinton led by less than other NH polls is ominous for the GOP Senate chances.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush says he wants to ignore the past on: February 14, 2015, 02:04:50 pm
Jeb can't completely ignore Iraq, he has to say what he would do differently. Dodging it is going to get him nowhere at all in the primary, much less the general. Hillary's problems are less severe, nobody cares who Bill slept with in the 1990s.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL: Grayson, DWS (among others) looking at Rubio's seat on: February 13, 2015, 12:22:25 pm
Grayson would not win the primary. Florida Dems primary voters are mainly moderate northeastern retirees and nothing suggests Murphy can't get a large chunk of the Hispanic and black vote as well.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-Bloomberg/St. Anselm: Clinton leads Bush/Paul/Walker by 7-14 points on: February 13, 2015, 01:07:29 am
Yeah, McCain and Romney were both good candidates for the state and both lost by more than the national vote. If anything like this holds then NH-1 flips back and NH Senate is a close race. It doesn't make sense for the GOP to spend big bucks in the Boston market either when no other states in it are competitive.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: VA-CNU: Hillary leads all on: February 12, 2015, 08:41:31 pm
Virginia is pretty inelastic, helps Dems a ton in a close race as the GOP should find it impossible without inroads around DC. That said, Clinton wont persuade white voters as easily as she might in PA, WI, OH so her margins might be smaller than her national number in a blowout.
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