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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2028: VP Stacey Abrams/Gov. Buttigieg vs. Gov. George P. Bush/Sen. Ben Quayle on: August 16, 2017, 11:47:39 pm
This can happen:

2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Steve Bullock is the guy for 2020. on: August 15, 2017, 01:05:06 pm
Bullock needs to run far to the economic left, that's how to offset issues on guns.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Steve Bullock is the guy for 2020. on: August 14, 2017, 08:03:02 pm
Bullock is what the Dems need, the ones the DC crowd promote like Booker and Cuomo have absolutely no appeal outside the northeast corridor.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT Sen 2020- Bullock running? on: August 13, 2017, 06:42:25 pm
He'd be a perfect VP for Warren
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: States where Trump will almost certainly do worse than in 2016.... on: August 13, 2017, 02:43:17 pm
Florida too, has no room to grow with whites there
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NC Sen-Could Cooper run on: August 12, 2017, 03:12:32 pm
Doubtful, he could have run for Senate in 2008 and probably gotten backing over Hagan but chose to stay in NC.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-SEN Class 1: Flake News! on: August 11, 2017, 11:38:10 pm
If this seat becomes an open one, this is the type that flips with a president at 38% approval. Also, Arizona 2018= Ohio/Iowa/Wisconsin 2010??? I can see a left turn here.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Where should the 2020 conventions be held? on: August 08, 2017, 10:45:03 pm
I say Detroit for the 2020 DNC, Phoenix if they insist on the sun belt.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did left-leaning journalists/pundits favor hillary so much over bernie? on: August 08, 2017, 03:29:04 pm
Silver and Cohn were warning that Trump could win. FiveThirtyEight gave Trump a 25-30% shot, a roughly -5 favorite in an NFL game for example.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2017 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: VCU - Virginia: Northam +5 on: August 08, 2017, 10:24:56 am
a 5 point win here won't be terribly promising for Dems in 2018.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Bernie is the nominee, will you stay home or vote for someone else? on: August 08, 2017, 08:00:56 am
Most people who supported Bernie are not going to jump on a Booker or Cuomo train either. The problem is that Bernie types are sick and tired of the lobbyists, student loans and everything D.C. has brought. Thomas Frank describes this perfectly in his new book. Dems are making a huge mistake by disparaging the Bernie crowd.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Democratic primaries are gonna be such a sh*tshow on: August 06, 2017, 11:56:02 pm
It will be a very nasty 2020 primary but a needed nasty. The DC/Clinton insiders will call everyone a racist who doesn't love Booker, Cuomo and Harris but voters won't buy it this time.

If a progressive wins a plurality of delegates at around 40% but the party gives the nomination to someone else, all hell will break loose with the Bernie faction.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: CNN: 26 Million Reasons Why Pelosi Isn't Going Anywhere on: August 06, 2017, 11:37:13 pm
Pelosi needs to be disposed of in the next year. She is a complete loser and holding the party back. Her record is miserable, it's like having a bad QB and keeping him after endless 6-10 seasons.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WaPo: There’s no such thing as a Trump Democrat on: August 06, 2017, 10:33:27 pm
The media is promoting terrible 2020 candidates like Booker, Cuomo and Harris.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: WaPo: There’s no such thing as a Trump Democrat on: August 06, 2017, 08:11:37 pm
It's the WashPo trying to get Dems to only focus on suburban professionals and rich donors. The county maps from 2000, 2004 along with 2016 prove there is a significant number of Obama Trump voters who also voted for Gore and Kerry. These voters are winnable again to an extent, Biden would have probably gotten plenty of them.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Arizona trend Democratic again in 2020? on: August 05, 2017, 03:08:47 pm
Arizona will be part of any Democratic victory in 2020, I'm serious.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Do you think polarization continues on after 2030 or not? on: August 05, 2017, 02:55:40 pm
I could see something like this:

2020: Dems win the WH, both branches of congress, the economic left rises
2022: Dems hold the House with a much friendlier map
2024: Popular D incumbent wins re-election easily, with a 1984 feel.
2026: GOP makes gains in congress, both houses very close.
2028: GOP wins the entire midwest outside Illinois (MN, MI, WI, PA) and takes ME, NH but suffers a defeat due to Democratic victories in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
2030s: GOP realizes they cannot win without changes and begins attracting educated professionals disenchanted with the economic left
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Florida and Ohio on: August 05, 2017, 12:21:57 am
Neither side is winning without Florida in 2020.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will be the 2020 Democratic nominee? on: August 03, 2017, 01:21:46 pm
Warren or a complete unknown to most like Bullock. This could be like an NCAA tourney where a random 7 seed wins the dance. Booker and Cuomo have major shortcomings in IA and NH and if a lesser known wins those, they can catapult ahead in SC.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Deval Patrick 2020? on: August 01, 2017, 04:22:15 pm
Forget about the midwest if this happens.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Ohio becoming the next Missouri? on: July 29, 2017, 10:01:58 pm
Ohio is on the way to becoming the next Missouri....Georgia will be the next Virginia, it all evens out.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Elizabeth Warren's VP on: July 27, 2017, 03:24:28 pm
Bullock would be solid, someone like Roy Cooper could also work.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2022 Senate Predictions on: July 26, 2017, 04:26:43 pm
Too hard to predict, these next 5 years will sure be interesting though. 2022 could be a good GOP year, or it could be a 1934 type of year where the GOP elected in 2016 are punished for Trump's presidency in the same way the GOP elected in 1928 was for Hoover's.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Politico: Christie's last big move could be filling Menendez's seat on: July 22, 2017, 11:56:02 pm
If he's convicted it will be November or December. The Dems will just stall the expulsion vote until Murphy takes office. The GOP is not getting this seat.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Stop trying to make "[insert random MT politician here] 2020" a thing on: July 10, 2017, 11:32:13 pm
Bullock is the best type of candidate the Dems could get. If he runs he should be fast to remind people he is the only non-DC person and Governor in the race. He also should propose items like student loan reform/relief/forgiveness to get younger voters. Bullock is a great fit for both Iowa and New Hampshire and a few sincere events with the African-American community in the south could help.

But he can only win if he is aggressive from the start, that means he must attack people like Booker and Cuomo as being part of the reason college is so expensive, why Wall Street controls our politics etc.
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