I'm skeptical about the idea Obama lost the white vote in NY and he probably did better with NJ whites than the exit polls suggest from looking at town results (he improved from 2008 in many white working class areas). Upstate NY is very white and swung dem and NJ Obama probably got in the mid to high 40s, not the 43% the exits say.

NJ could be a swing state if and only if Christie is the nominee (which I don't think will happen after right wing nuts attack). If it's any other GOP candidate, the state will receive zero attention and be in the bank for Hillary or whatever D.

   To win PA, the GOP will need to become somewhat more competitive in the northeast. Most think of PA as a midwestern state but the Philly area and Lehigh Valley is definitely northeastern. Romney won almost everything west of Chester County with the exception of Allegheny (which judging from the past 20 years is not moving like the rest of western PA. Dems have enough of a base in Pittsburgh to stay on top there. Smaller towns like Erie, Harrisburg have also trended D, even against the areas around them.
 The math is problematic for the GOP, the only way for them is to cut D margins slightly in Philly and do much better in the inner suburbs of Delaware, Bucks, Montgomery. Obama didn't even do as well as Kerry in some and still won the state easy. A candidate like Hillary is a nightmare for the GOP b/c she very likely does better than Obama ever did in western PA and at worst a few points better than Obama 2012. Movement toward the D's there without any significant R swing in Philly area is fatal to any GOP chances. Places like Scranton are logical GOP targets but these voters haven't moved R. Scranton isnt appalachian- the trends sure show.

If someone like Rubio doesn't improve with hispanics, CO won't be terribly close. Still, there is no way Hillary can lose whites by 3 and win the state by only 4. Obama lost whites by 10 and won by over 5. If whites vote GOP by a 3 point margin, CO looks like a Hillary victory by 7 to 9 points. Of course this is all pointless speculation but I suspect once Hillary begins defending Obama policies she will stay steady in places like CO, NV, VA but drop significantly in KY, WV etc.

This polls electorate is 81% white and last years exits had it at 78%. Considering the state's rising latino population that number should be 75% or so in 2016. Keep in mind it's a midterm electorate poll and the fact that an actual campaign could hurt Rubio with social libertarians in Colorado (and help him in KY, WV, AR, TN etc). I'd bank on CO being the near the national average again no matter who the nominees are in 2016.

Manville went for Obama too after going for McCain 2008...for some reason the white-working class towns in the northeast swung Democratic. Look at Scranton, Staten Island, parts of Philly and Providence.

Palm Beach really has little room to move further to the right. The county is only 60% white in the 2010 Census, down 10% from 2000. Something like only 45% of births in the county are white too.
If Hillary is the nominee she will get a bigger boost here than Rubio would. Would not be shocked one bit if PBC goes back to 61-39 D next election. The Dems haven't done great here relatively but the reality is the demographics don't point to an R resurgence. Of course if the Rs actually make gains with latinos this can change.

FL I would say, even more than VA. Even in red areas in southwest FL in places like Naples along I-75 it's more country club conservative than Santorum types.

Hillary vs Rubio trend

I think there are many similarities to the 70s but don't forget that if watergate doesnt happen, the GOP likely wins in 1976. Something similar could occur with Dems holding WH in 2016.

This is the same firm that had Romney winning Virginia by 5 last fall.
http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_October_31_2012.htm

When you make the 9 point adjustment you get McAuliffe by 2 which lines up with most polls.

PA: Not sure the GOP has much to be optimistic about even in the short term here. Yeah, it trended slightly R this time but Romney also made that last ditch surge after Obama led the entire time. Obama did terrible in Western PA and still won by over 5 even without doing well in parts of metro Philly (Bucks, Chester, Berks pretty much a tie). Hillary at the top of the ticket likely would make PA lean D by a larger margin. Plus the areas of PA that are growing are not where the GOP is surging.

GA: Don't discount the chances a Dem by 2020 could have here. Counties like Gwinnett are 43% white, yet Romney won by 9. Simply put, the GOP is on borrowed time in places like that in metro Atl and theyve pretty much maxed out the white vote in rural areas.

VA: I think Dems can get to high 60s in Fairfax, mid 60s in Prince William, high 50s in Loudoun if trends continue.

I think after the GOP has a couple more presidential flops they'll begin to recover and the midwest is the first place they can look to (MI, WI, MN, IA, PA). As for the next decade, most likely things change little in PA, OH and the rest of the rust belt but VA becomes a lean D state and dems make Arizona close, while maintaining CO, NV. Dems also begin  to contest Georgia but it still leans R and NC becomes a pure tossup.

The Vietnamese vote and the Cuban vote have striking similarities. Both gave Obama a much better percentage this time but most likely Obama won higher Vietnamese voters too. Of course the Cuban vote influences a key state whereas the Vietnamese is unlikely to make much of a difference (maybe a tiny tiny bit in Virginia outside DC).

It's unconstitutional because although in 1787 it would be allowed, the 14th amendment EPC is clearly violated. Yes, states can allocate electoral votes in the manner they choose but I dont think this means they can allocate them in violation of other constitutional provisions as well.

Senate Democrats should threaten to abolish the filibuster if any of these states tinkers with the electoral college. The promise of an investigation and supoenas into GOP backdoor donations would scare enough people as those hearings could produce widespread ridicule.

I think someone like Christie would run very strong with upper midwest Catholics and possibly win WI,IA,OH and maybe even MI. Rubio on the other hand is probably a poor fit for this group and the GOP is probably more likely long term to win the midwest than retaking states like NV, CO, VA.

Again, I'm not worried at all that Virginia does this because the votes aren't there. Ohio won't either because its more R than the national average and would only help Dems in a close 2000 style election. MI probably won't either because it would get overturned in a referendum and Snyder has enough issues already. WI senate may not have the votes for it. PA is the biggest concern to me but the state senate majority is fairly thin there too and the Governor is up in 2014 as well.

I'm not so sure it would survive a constitutional challenge. Just because the state's can allocate electoral votes as they choose doesn't mean they can violate other provisions of the constitution such as equal protection (as this plan does).
I'd also challenge the Congressional District method altogether since states have fixed borders while districts do not. EP should mean that everyone's vote for the same office occurs in the same way and the ME/NE method should be unconstitutional as well.

I'm not sure any part of Philly, Richmond, Detroit, Milwaukee would be left standing following the riots but that was a very creative headline!

The FL map itself would be interesting to see. Most likely Hillary would fall back into the 50s in Miami-Dade but almost certainly climb back into the 60s in Palm Beach where Obama somewhat underperformed. She'd flip Volusia back and possibly Flagler as well while likely taking Duval narrowly. Hillary would probably do well around Tampa and improve on Obama in all SW FL but not win any counties (possibly Sarasota but thats it). She'd also get a small swing in northern FL but nothing major.

I'd be more worried about this happening in PA or MI. Considering how Bolling has been acting there's little to no chance this will actually pass the state senate. Not to mention one of the GOP on the subcommittee voted no as well. Simply doesnt have the votes here.

This is a re-redistricting so it presents a completely different issue.

You do realize the constitutional provision applies to state legislative districts only and your link deals with congressional districts. Before you make fun of my comments it would be helpful to back up your end with facts. The congressional map was passed in 2012, not 2011 as required for state districts.

Also, do you see any problem with stuff like this? Whether it's the electoral vote by congressional district or sh**t like this, the common theme is the GOP needs to rig the system to win. If you really want a President who loses the popular vote by 5% and the electoral vote by 100 under a fair winner take all system, you're un-American and got serious issues.

I'm doubtful this holds up in court. The provision that the state redistricts in 2011 and every 10 years thereafter seems fairly clear to me. The method by which this was passed also presents a VRA issue (not the map itself). I have trouble seeing a court agree that this was just a minor revision.

Hahahahahahahaha!


http://washington.cbslocal.com/2012/02/28/judge-dismisses-virginia-redistricting-suit/

Circuit Judge Richard Taylor ruled Monday that while the state Constitution clearly directs lawmakers to redraw the boundaries in 2011 and every 10 years thereafter, nothing expressly prohibits them from doing it in 2012.

A similar federal lawsuit was dismissed earlier this month.

I'm doubtful this holds up in court. The provision that the state redistricts in 2011 and every 10 years thereafter seems fairly clear to me. The method by which this was passed also presents a VRA issue (not the map itself). I have trouble seeing a court agree that this was just a minor revision.