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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Texas votes for a Democrat in 2020 or 2024 on: June 17, 2017, 11:30:17 am
Texas could vote for a Democratic candidate if Trump and the GOP stay this unpopular. That said, it will be nowhere near the tipping point until 2028-32 at the earliest, if not later.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Woman or man against Trump in 2020? on: June 16, 2017, 12:05:26 am
Booker is a terrible candidate, it's all about economics. He also doesn't have someone like Michelle to help him out. Dems can't choose him.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2018: PA Governor's Race on: June 15, 2017, 02:08:06 pm
Hard to see Wolf losing, he ran very well in western PA in 2014. If the Philly area is as D as 2016, no way GOP will get Trump like margins in SW PA against him.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Seats that Dems may have a hard time in for 2018 but can win in 2020 on: June 07, 2017, 09:27:11 pm
The Dems can win FL-26 easily in 2018, after Curbelo's vote it's probably one of the first 10 to flip.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-07: Businessman David Kim running for D nomination on: June 07, 2017, 04:04:37 pm
I think this one is very tough for 2018 but I can see it flipping in 2020. Not hard seeing a Democratic victory at the presidential level in 2020 and includes a congressional flip if Dems find a candidate.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Seats that Dems may have a hard time in for 2018 but can win in 2020 on: June 07, 2017, 04:03:39 pm
I would put seats like GA-7, TX-7, TX-32 at the top of this list.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN-08: Nolan won't run for Governor, will defend seat on: June 07, 2017, 03:53:15 pm
If the Dems hold the Gov and win the legislature in 2018-20, I expect them to combine the reddest parts of MN-7 and 8 when MN loses a seat. If Dems pick up MN 2,3 in the next two cycles I certainly expect them to take parts of MN-4 and 5 and move them into 2,3 to strengthen whoever wins in 2018 or 2020.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Iowa is rapidly trending republican much faster then it's neighbors WI and MN. on: May 27, 2017, 03:14:45 pm
Sanders obviously would have done much better in the upper midwest and we don't know if a 2020 Democratic nominee will be from this wing of the party yet. Guessing it will be a left leaning Bernie type though.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / What will the political landscape look like after the 2020 election? on: May 27, 2017, 03:10:01 pm
Obviously it is too early to speculate every little detail but it's possible to make some guesses. I think by the fall of 2020, Americans will be beyond tired with this administration, leading to a possible realigning election and Democratic landslide. 2020 is completely consistent with the 32-48 year patterns in political eras that include 1828,1860,1896,1932,1980.

If Democrats get the House in 2018 and/or 2020, I expect heavy pressure to pass legislation that closes tax loopholes, forgives/lessens the burden of student loans and regulates Wall Street. If the party is smart, they will attempt to get the GOP on record opposing popular bills after years of Trump fatigue.

In the Senate, a realistic 2018 includes the red state Dems holding serve and gaining Nevada. If things get really ugly for the GOP, I expect Dems to win Arizona as well. Anything better than 50/50 is really not realistic. For 2020, Dems may gain an open Maine, CO, NC and could put IA, AK in play with the right candidates. If the Dems get to 53-54, they would need to realistically consider abolishing the legislative filibuster and keep up the offensive on 2022 GOP senators in the hopes it becomes like 1934.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Kerry/Obama/Trump state is most likely to flip back to the Democrats? on: May 14, 2017, 01:11:44 pm
Be careful overthinking 2016 trends, if Dems nominate someone from the Bernie wing, chances are he or she will appeal a lot in WI MI MN IA PA.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will VP Pence run in 2024? on: May 14, 2017, 01:09:06 pm
Maybe he'll run as the sacrificial lamb like Mondale did in 1984.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Steve Bullock is the democrat's best bet for 2020 on: May 12, 2017, 09:05:31 pm
Bullock is almost definitely running in 2020. His NY Times piece sure looked like an effort to get his name out there to me. In addition to citizens United I think he must offer:

1) a solution to student loan debt. Get Booker to defend the current outrageously high tuition rates and pin the problem on DC/Ivy elites. Try to get the state school grads and don't worry about NY NJ as those primaries are late. This message may get more African Americans than people expect and he must visit the south and inner cities.

2) pledge to break up the cable monopolies such as Comcast. The neoliberal left will freak out but this stance will distinguish him from the crowd.

3) pick an outsider VP as well but pledge to have some DC hands in the admin.

4) go all Bernie in terms of raising taxes on the rich and single payer.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Primary Bullock vs. Booker on: May 12, 2017, 08:58:21 pm
I think Bullock could win but he would need to win IA NH and appeal to at least some African Americans. Attacking Booker on Wall Street ties would be his best play and Booker honestly does not have the same emotional connection with black voters that Obama had. Bullock would also be gunning for a Bernie endorsement.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: TheAtlantic: Can Millennials Save the Democratic Party? (2016 analysis) on: March 05, 2017, 10:22:43 pm
Dems definitely did not perform well with young voters in the midwest. On the other hand, they had very impressive numbers in GA, NC, FL, AZ, TX
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats finally starting to realize why they lost in 2016: Hillary Clinton on: March 05, 2017, 04:58:56 pm
Booker is a pawn for Wall Street and Silicon Valley. He is Obama with the liabilities and not the benefits.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who're your top 3 choices for 2020? on: February 23, 2017, 09:17:05 pm
Bullock
Brown
Franken
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Easiest Democratic Map for 2020 on: February 16, 2017, 12:37:13 am


I would say it's this, demographics may push Florida to the left of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin this time. Just getting some turnout in Detroit would flip Michigan back. GOP can still grow in the Milwaukee suburbs too in 2020.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state do Democrats have a better chance of carrying: NC or GA? on: February 07, 2017, 02:37:42 pm
Carolina in 2020 but Georgia after. Once the oldest generation of Georgia dies out, it will be a very tough state for the GOP to hold.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: How and when does New England go Republican? on: January 05, 2017, 03:51:16 pm
We started to see that this year. MA swung D and RI, ME had major swings toward the GOP.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Minnesota 2020 = Arizona 1996? on: December 24, 2016, 12:05:14 pm
I don't think the left is going with the Booker/Harris coalition in 2020. The Bernie/Warren voters are younger and I could see a hard swing back leftwards in the Midwest with Warren or Brown as nominee. The elitist wing of the Democratic Party isn't terribly large. If you take the Bernie voters from 2016 and add more minorities, it's a clear win for the left.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What about a Heinrich/Bullock ticket? on: December 22, 2016, 03:30:31 pm
I think Bullock at the top of ticket with a clear ethics message  (citizens  United helps) and a Bernie like economic plan could be very effective. Bullock with someone like Booker as VP is as strong as any possible ticket.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MN-01, 07: Hagedorn and Hughes Both Seeking Rematches on: December 22, 2016, 12:31:14 am
GOP Presidential midterm is the wrong time for them.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Election Results by Congressional Districts, OFFICIAL THREAD on: December 20, 2016, 04:07:58 pm
Obama won NJ-2 and 3 in 2012. In a bad GOP year the state could be a wipeout for house Rs.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Party's Future: Patriotism on: December 17, 2016, 08:00:05 pm
I don't think the Democratic establishment is going to be for globalization for much longer. The Bernie/Warren wing is coming in 2020 and I expect the populist left to grab the nomination, either with Warren or someone like Brown/Bullock. Most rank and file Dems are tired of Pelosi too, a smart candidate will run against them as well.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Warren crash, like Christie did after 2012? on: December 15, 2016, 02:49:11 pm
I think she could not run herself or crash but the Bernie/Warren wing will grab the 2020 nomination. Without a clear frontrunner the debates will matter a ton.
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