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July 28, 2016, 05:20:21 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: North Carolina on: Today at 12:02:36 am
Because Romney already won huge margins with working class whites and Trump has little room to improve. And because Trump may do worse than Romney in Wake, Mecklenberg counties with educated whites.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump and the NJ vote on: July 26, 2016, 10:39:05 pm
You'll see Trump domination on the coasts along with Trump losing ground in places like Somerset, Morris with a high number of college grads.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Donald Trump's best areas in Michigan to win on: July 24, 2016, 01:54:49 pm
The Upper Peninsula, central MI, but he won't offset a 16 point or more loss in Oakland County
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY? on: July 16, 2016, 02:20:29 pm
Trump. By like 8, it's sharply trending R.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / The media and Ohio on: July 16, 2016, 09:41:24 am
We keep hearing that Ohio is going to decide things this year. Does anyone actually believe this to be the case? There is about a 95-99% chance that Ohio is not the tipping point and it looks more on par with NC this year in terms of importance. I would put CO NV WI VA IA PA FL NC/OH from left to right.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ: Fl, VA, CO, NC on: July 14, 2016, 11:42:51 pm
Murphy is still unknown in Florida. If Clinton carries Florida by over 5, Rubio will struggle with the late deciders against Trump. It's hard to predict exactly what's gonna happen.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton tied in OH, +3 in IA, +9 in PA on: July 14, 2016, 09:52:22 pm
Hillary may win places like Chester by double digits and get over 60-62% in Montgomery, numbers that will offset Trump gains in places like Luzerne. Can see Trump underperforming in places like Lancaster too.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: A Big Day for Polls: Colorado leaves "Closest Races", Trump closest in Month on: July 13, 2016, 09:45:06 pm
You can probably throw the Florida Q poll in the trash too...Clinton +3 there seems logical right now.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NV-Monmouth: Clinton +4 on: July 11, 2016, 05:38:37 pm
With the white vote where its at for Rs, you're looking at a 8-10% Dem win.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC: Clinton 253 Trump 190 Tossup 95 (NV moving towards Trump) on: July 01, 2016, 12:49:56 pm
Virginia should be lean D too.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC: Clinton 253 Trump 190 Tossup 95 (NV moving towards Trump) on: July 01, 2016, 12:32:13 pm
Would anyone be stunned if Nevada polls point to a 2% Hillary lead and she wins it by 12% on election night?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NBC: Clinton 253 Trump 190 Tossup 95 (NV moving towards Trump) on: July 01, 2016, 12:26:02 pm
Florida is not going Hillary without Nevada and Colorado as well.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-SurveyUSA: Clinton+4 on: June 29, 2016, 08:24:56 am
If the white vote margin is 6% Hillary is winning by more than 4 points.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary's margin in NY on: June 29, 2016, 08:20:51 am
Same as Romney in 2012, beats him in Staten Island, parts of western NY. Does worse in the area along the NY/VT border.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Popular vote vs electoral vote maps on: June 27, 2016, 10:50:05 pm
Trump isn't winning Michigan if it's a 1% national margin.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AR-Hendrix College: Trump +11 on: June 27, 2016, 01:47:33 pm
This is one of the Clinton beats Obama states but doesn't win, see also UT, WY, ID, KS
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL/OH/PA Quinnipiac: GOP in good shape on: June 22, 2016, 10:00:24 am
This pollster just wanted to give Rubio an excuse to run. His approvals are 13% higher here than PPP while the other GOP run in line with other polls. Rubio is going to have to explain why he's supporting Trump and why he doesnt go his job.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How can TRUMP win without Florida? on: June 21, 2016, 04:34:33 pm
I can't see Hillary losing Wisconsin or Virginia, both of which are terrible Trump fits. Colorado is a pretty difficult one for Trump too.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict Florida to the best of your ability. on: June 20, 2016, 10:44:32 am
Yes, Clinton will get over 60% in Orange, 65% in Dade and do better than Obama 2012 in Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough. She may also flip a county like Sarasota if she wins by a lot. Volusia is a solid place for Trump so if Hillary somehow won there it would likely be a weak flip.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Is Rubio actually reconsidering post-Orlando shooting? on: June 19, 2016, 11:51:21 am
It will be close but I would bet on a 51-48 Murphy win. Rubio is not the same guy as a couple years back, he is severely damaged goods at this point and facing a well-funded opponent.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-4/Salt Lake Tribune: Owens +5 on: June 12, 2016, 08:36:21 pm
This district will be substantially closer at the presidential level than 2012. McCain won it 56-41, Romney 67-30. Single digits for Trump isn't out of the question.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Public Policy Polling: Trump 41 Clinton 40 on: June 07, 2016, 06:32:46 pm
PPP had many polls like Washington state where they underestimated Obama big time in 2012.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Public Policy Polling: Trump 41 Clinton 40 on: June 07, 2016, 02:19:31 pm
Florida is becoming as hard to poll as Nevada and Colorado...Hispanics will be more than 15% of the electorate.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Iowa vote in the GE? on: June 05, 2016, 11:28:47 pm
Iowa is a bad state for Trump, it has similar demographics to MN, WI. I thought Iowa would lose it's Democratic lean with another R but not so sure about Trump.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: Clinton 45 Trump 42 // Biden 50 Trump 40 on: June 04, 2016, 10:50:14 am
The problem with that calculator is assuming uniform swings in the white vote. I can see small GOP swings in Appalachia, northeast that is countered by Dem swings in the west.
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