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October 24, 2014, 10:35:21 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ohio in 2016 on: Today at 12:22:24 pm
Doubt she'd lose Colorado in a landslide win. She might win 54% nationally and get 51-52% in Colorado but with Presidential turnout she should win it. Not sure the GOP is winning everything there, Hickenlooper might survive and they might only win one legislative house.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: Today at 12:06:01 pm
New Jersey is not going red in 2016, Christie's approvals there are way down and doubtful he can beat Hillary. A lot of Republicans are overconfident about 2016, Obama in the mid 40s probably will not sink Hillary. Hillary had led Jeb and Rubio in every single Florida poll and the electorate there will only be around 64% white in 2016.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Predict Georgia on: October 23, 2014, 10:29:35 pm
Does anyone think Nunn has a better chance to win a runoff if the GOP wins the Senate on election day? Regardless, winning the election day vote on Nov 4 is a tremendous accomplishment and would signal Hillary has a real shot at Georgia with an even more diverse electorate.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Public Policy Polling: Tied at 48-48 on: October 23, 2014, 01:20:57 pm
What are the odds the GOP gets 55 senate seats while Dems win PA FL MI WI KS ME Governors?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Quinnipiac University: Ernst+2 on: October 23, 2014, 09:49:59 am
Advantage Ernst but between early voters and other polls having her only up 1 and PPPs with Braley up 1, just close enough not to call it over.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: CA-21/SUSA: Rep. Valadao (R) up by five on: October 22, 2014, 08:23:42 pm
GOP is on borrowed time in this district but it's not switching hands until 2016
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 22, 2014, 07:03:07 pm
I think this is a realistic PVI map (that means if the country splits exactly 50/50, not who wins each state). Florida and Wisconsin are the tough ones here. A lot of people here don't think Florida can lean D but that only takes a 2.99% trend. In years with new candidates (2000, 2008) that number is very common either way as opposed to re-election years (2004, 2012).

8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: Reuters/Ipsos: Gardner in the lead on: October 22, 2014, 06:43:58 pm
I won't be stunned if Gardner wins this but by just 1% or so. He SHOULD win this race but there's enough doubt with past CO polls that no one can sleep until it's over.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Electoral College problems for Republicans on: October 22, 2014, 02:54:11 pm
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/30/hillary-clinton-electoral-college-problem

This article might be correct on Iowa and Colorado but it neglects Hillary's numbers in Florida. I also caution against comparing polls from different pollsters in different states.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Suffolk: RIP Udall on: October 22, 2014, 01:51:35 pm
Gardner is leading in the RCP average by 4.4, Obama and Bennet beat that average by 4.5. Seriously Gardner would win by 2% or so if held today. It's time that pollsters press undecideds a little more.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: GA: Survey USA: Nunn remains slightly ahead on: October 22, 2014, 09:00:51 am
Going to a runoff. Still, winning the Election Day vote would be a tremendous accomplishment for Georgia Dems.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: DEMOCRATS: Should the Democratic Party compete for Missouri in 2016? on: October 21, 2014, 10:49:17 pm
Hillary will have plenty of money, trust me.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2020 is the Election Democrats Should Really Be Focusing On..... on: October 21, 2014, 09:58:45 pm
Yeah that hurt bc California dems could draw a 48-5 map probably if they wanted to.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2020 is the Election Democrats Should Really Be Focusing On..... on: October 21, 2014, 09:46:13 pm
North Carolina is hopeless because the legislature controls redistricting. The best way is for a future liberal Supreme Court to declare their maps unconstitutional 
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2020 is the Election Democrats Should Really Be Focusing On..... on: October 21, 2014, 09:14:37 pm
Winning PA and FL is a start for this year and having VA after 2021 would be nice as well. Even if the GOP wins MI and WI, those states along with OH will have open seats in 2018. A court drawn legislative map is a substantial upgrade over what we have now and should give dems a fair shot in a favorable year.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MI: Clarity Campaign Labs (D): Schauer + 3 on: October 21, 2014, 07:56:01 pm
This race has had almost no good polling.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: October 21, 2014, 01:10:18 pm
The CO senate could be interesting because the districts that the GOP won in the recalls are very Democratic and with even moderate turnout could flip back even in a bad Dem year.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NH-01/NH-02-YouGov: Shea-Porter up 17, Garcia up 5 on: October 21, 2014, 11:37:30 am
NH-2 is a more democratic district, even the GOP barely won in 2010.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: October 21, 2014, 11:33:59 am
Probably a couple points less white and more latino. That's about it. Buck  won whites by 7% and lost by 1.6. I assume Udall can lose whites by 9-10 with demographic change and win but once his deficit gets into the 11-13% range like the PPP poll I don't see it.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: October 21, 2014, 10:58:47 am
Gardner is clearly ahead now, you can argue that. The vote by mail and same day registration is a wildcard though. Considering Dems already beat polling numbers before this it adds something more to the uncertainty. Really will not know the truth until 11 pm in two weeks.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: PPP for National Journal: Walker +1 on: October 21, 2014, 10:53:02 am
Considering the younger voters are the undecideds this one could get interesting
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: October 21, 2014, 10:49:02 am
As long as its still only 1-3 points for Gardner it's in play considering COs history. Still, I saw nothing wrong at all with PPPs sample.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NH-01/NH-02: UNH releases their worst polls yet on: October 20, 2014, 05:48:18 pm
http://www.umass.edu/poll/pdfs/20141020_Toplines.pdf

The idea that Dems will win NH-1 and lose NH-2 is absurd.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Benenson (D): Also Udall +3 on: October 18, 2014, 04:04:43 pm
The dems internals were closer to the result in 2010 and 2012. Most polls had Obama 0-2 point win and yet he won by over 5.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PPP-IA: Braley +1 on: October 17, 2014, 07:45:45 pm
Still a long 18 days to go and just one poll. That said, there really isn't anything about this sample that should bring questions.
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