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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 24, 2016, 08:20:53 am
Well it's bound to change Tongue

I suspect if it remains this close all the way through we'll see the vote thrown out.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 24, 2016, 01:06:38 am
It is really noteworthy how 'Coalition' Rural Australia is now.
Now? It's been conservative-leaning for years. That's what population decline does to you.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How old would you think the previous poster is? on: July 23, 2016, 06:11:28 am
23 Tongue
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the US Senate for 2016 - Spring 2016 on: July 17, 2016, 03:34:05 am
Toss-up, though if Tilt D was an option I'd vote that.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 12, 2016, 04:50:01 am
In relation to the North Shore seats, it's been a slowly emerging trend that in many places the Greens are the second party. There are times when these seats swing, but since the stronger emergence of the Greens in the early/mid-2000s, Labor has been an afterthought. Those areas are as much anti-Labor, as they are pro-Liberal. There are times when they might not want to vote Liberal, but they certainly won't be voting Labor.

Plus, despite living in the area, Abbott was not considered part of their tribe and a lot of Liberal voters, who are socially moderate/liberal and more pro-business than anything else were always made very uncomfortable by his social crusader status.
Yep, very good points. My overarching point though was similar to your second point, Turnbull is a far better fit for pro-business style Liberals than Abbott ever was.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Were your parents born in the same country you were? on: July 11, 2016, 10:56:09 am
Yes. Both my parents and all my grandparents were born in the state and country as me.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 11, 2016, 07:52:59 am
One interesting factor that I noticed but haven't really seen discussed anywhere was just how much of a class element there was to this election.

Like usually there's a class element towards most elections, but the Liberals position with working-class voters (or aspirational middle with working-class roots, which is a bit more accurate) was helped by a more populist tinge from Abbott and Howard. Unlike those two though Turnbull never looked comfortable playing the populist and mostly played up his business image. This had the effect of appealing him towards middle-class Liberal-leaning voters, but whatever "Howard battlers" exist mostly voted Labor in this election.

Examples are rife in all states.

In New South Wales, in Western Sydney we saw a double digit swing in Macarthur (although there were other reasons here that I didn't explain), but we also saw swings of 7%+ in the Sydney electorates of Watson, Chifley, Blaxland and McMahon, which would usually be very safe Labor seats, but due to issues with the Labor brand in Sydney the margins here were very depressed. It appears that this election has seen the margins there normalise. You also saw similar swings in seats like Paterson, Hunter and Whitlam outside of Sydney, and also margins in Kingsford Smith and Parramatta also returned to their usual level. Even Greenway managed a reasonable swing to Labor despite the fact that it probably would've flipped in 2013 if it wasn't for Jaymes Diaz. The only real exception in NSW to this class swing rule is Werriwa, which largely broke even from 2013 levels - probably because of a dodgy Liberal preselection in Fowler in 2013 (the swing in Fowler was smaller than neighbouring seats, too), and also because the Liberals nominated a very strong candidate - I expect a large swing there in the next election (will probably be 2018/19 as a majority looks all but certain for the Liberals). It also looks like the swing was a bit subdued in Shortland and Cunningham as well - but in the former's case it was an open seat as well.

Liberal seats though? I already touched on Macarthur, and Lindsay (which everyone hyped about as a "Howard battler" seat) had its bellweather record broken in this election. But when you look at the North Shore, the traditional Liberal heartland, you see some below par results for Labor. While open seats masked this a bit, as well as PM's/former PM's losing some shine, most of them had lower swings than the seats south of Sydney Harbour. And Bradfield and Bennelong had swings towards the Liberals. As did Cook, which while in the south of the Sydney Metropolitan Area is more similar towards the North Shore than the rest of Sydney.

Also, it's interesting that there appeared to be some Chinese appeal for Turnbull. Bennelong, Reid and Banks all either had swings towards the Liberals or below-average swings towards Labor, and all have an area in the seat with a high Chinese population. Indeed Reid was before Pauline Hanson (when it was known as Lowe, redistributions has changed the nature of Reid dramatically, which used to be further west and a very safe Labor seat) a Liberal-leaning seat, but due to lack to Liberal appeal with Asians it became a Labor-leaning one. Thanks to waterfront developments and also Liberal improvement with ethnic voters, this has moved back to its roots.

I'll add some more evidence/discussion later on...
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2016 on: July 08, 2016, 06:08:03 am
You know this field is bad when 1. Johnson would've been a better option than all of them other than maybe Crabb and 2. you wish May is the next PM.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 07, 2016, 11:12:20 pm
What is a "Special Hospital Team booth"?
Essentially, they are people that organise voting for people currently in hospitals that aren't necessarily in their electorate and can't get to a voting place.

At least that's what I think.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 06, 2016, 06:25:09 am
The view from my perspective for the remaining seats in doubt:

Capricornia - Labor ahead by 902 votes on ordinary votes with a Special Hospital Team booth missing. Traditionally the Liberals do very well on postal votes here, but they're only leading them 54/46 off about 2000. Will be very tight unless future postals are very bad (possible). Too close to call.

Cowan - Labor ahead by 986 votes on ordinary votes with a Special Hospital Team booth missing. Unlike Capricornia though there isn't such a big trend towards the Liberals on the postcount. So far the Liberals are leading 55/45 off about 2250 formal postal votes. Labor should win it barring a huge surprise on future postals or absentees.

Flynn - Labor ahead by 2058 votes on ordinary votes with all booths in, so on paper you think Labor should hold. However, the seat has a huge bias towards the Liberals on the postcount, and this election is proving no exception - the LNP are ahead 64/36 off about 3500 formal postal votes. Will probably swing LNP barring a big recovery by Labor on the postcount, and history suggests that is unlikely.

Forde - Labor ahead by a threadbare 24 votes on ordinary votes with all booths in, so it seems likely that the margin will be overturned on the postcount. And off about 2500 postal votes the LNP are leading 56/44. Will be hard to overturn the margin for Labor, but if they can ebb the bleeding on postals a traditional Labor advantage in absentee votes (most of them tend to be cast in the north of the electorate, which is far more Labor leaning than the rural conservative south) it could be salvagable.

Gilmore - Liberal ahead by 353 votes on ordinary votes with 7 Special Hospital Team booths left outstanding, so that seems hard to overturn given the general Liberal bias in a postcount. So far off over 4000 votes the Liberals are winning postals by 58/42. Barring something very weird happening this will stay Liberal.

Herbert - Labor ahead by 941 votes on ordinary votes with all booths in. Seems secure enough but postal votes have ran 57/43 LNP off over 2000 of them. It's possible that this trend might deteriorate as the count goes on, and it could be cancelled out by a good absentee or provisional performance by Labor. But in any case this does not look like the formality it did a couple of days ago. Like Capricornia, this is too close to call.

Hindmarsh - Labor ahead by 629 votes on ordinary votes with 2 booths outstanding. Off nearly 6000 postal votes the Liberals are leading 54/46. As it stands I'd rather be in Labor's camp here, but a change in how the postal votes are swinging or less absentee votes than usual (in this electorate there are traditionally quite a lot of absentee votes which means that the postcount doesn't swing all that hard to the Liberals in contrast to other electorates) could change that. Labor ahead but an upset wouldn't surprise me.

Melbourne Ports - the wildcard. Looks safe Labor on paper, but they only lead the Greens by 1251 votes off ordinary votes on first preferences, and it's possible that margin will be chased down with left-leaning preferences, of which Melbourne Ports have a few. If the Greens do overtake them then the seat is a lottery - on paper you'd expect Labor preferences to get the Greens over the top (it did in Prahran in the 2014 state election) -  but Melbourne Ports has a high Jewish population that is anti-Greens but has a personal vote for Danby which makes the potential for Liberal leakage higher and possibly giving them the seat. However postals have been pretty anti-Greens so far - off about 1500 postal votes they're only polling about 12% to Labor's 28%, so it may not be interesting when the 3CC vote is determined. All things considered, Labor have to be favourites to hold this.

So the current totals are 72-65-5. Adding Gilmore to the Coalition and Melbourne Ports to Labor gives 73-66-5. Adding Cowan to Labor gives 73-67-5. Adding Flynn and Forde to the Coalition and Hindmarsh to Labor gives 75-68-5. So the result probably comes down to Capricornia and Herbert. So while Turnbull will likely form government, it remains to be seen whether it's a majority or a minority government.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 05, 2016, 11:28:42 pm
In other news: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-cory-bernardi-forms-conservative-political-movement/news-story/2645ac0c469cf40c3b69b78924fcb70d

Quote from: The Australian
Cory Bernardi has announced the formation of a new cross-party political movement, the Australian Conservatives, to gather proponents of “limited government, traditional values” and “plain old common sense”.

The conservative South Australian senator today warned that, after repeating the mistakes of the Rudd-Gillard Labor Party, the Turnbull Liberals had ushered forth a hung parliament that put Australia “right back where we were in 2010” and they must “learn from the experience”.

Please let this be true. Please.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 05, 2016, 09:08:40 pm
Could just be a bad batch, but if they continue the Liberals will probably end up gaining majority government.

is there any reason to expect this? e.g. do they count the postals in the order they receive them like in the US?
It's very hard to say. I thought that yes they count them in the order they receive them, and that should mean that early postals may favour the Coalition, especially in Queensland where the last week of the campaign was held in school holidays (and uni ones), where the mix of people who request postal votes are far more diverse than usual. However, there's this to consider off a guy from the Poll Bludger.....

It’s also the case that the first postal ballots sent out would usually be to registered general postal voters, those whose situations put them in need of a postal vote at every election, and who therefore don’t have to make a specific application. How long they would take to be returned is a different question. In addition, the fact that you can now apply for a postal vote online, a very simple and straightforward process, means that some normal applications probably get their ballots almost as soon as the general postal voters. In addition, the hardcopy postal vote applications which were sent out by the LNP, but not by the ALP, would be routed back through the LNP offices, which would add a bit of time to the process. Overall, it’s a somewhat complicated situation.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 05, 2016, 06:49:23 am
Some pretty awful postal flows in Queensland - Flynn 65/35 LNP, Herbert and Longman 58/42 LNP. Could just be a bad batch, but if they continue the Liberals will probably end up gaining majority government. And the Liberal government will be far smoother sailing than what I thought earlier this week.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 04, 2016, 10:38:50 pm
FWIW, postals have apparently been counted in Franklin.

Interestingly, they have broken 48.3% ALP – 37.5% Lib on primar votes. In contrast, in 2013 postals broke 37.9% ALP – 43.8% Lib.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: July 04, 2016, 09:07:02 pm
So how many seats do the CLP win?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 11:35:43 pm
Didn't Swan have poor candidate selection too? The ALP candidate was a former Green who had never voted ALP, and called the incumbent Liberal MP (who grew up as a ward of the state) a "rich white man" during the campaign.
That makes sense as to why the swing was kinda underwhelming, did not know about that.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 10:52:04 pm
An Analysis of the seat of swan, where I live would be nice.
Interesting one, was a bit of a disappointment for Labor on the night for mine, because I felt it was gonna be marginal, but no it looks safe-ish for Irons. Looking at the booths, it looks like the swing was patchy, but it appears that Labor did better in the eastern, more swingy booths than the more solidly Liberal Western booths (there's a huge East-West divide here, the West is very much blue blood Liberal, but the rest of the seat is much more swingy). This pattern was not atypical this election, in many seats the Labor vote swung the most in the more naturally Labor-leaning areas.

Probably Anton Kreitzer might know this part of the world better than me, I'm from the other side of the country Tongue
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 10:33:23 pm
Does Amanda Risworth stuff ballot boxes? Her margin is crazy for a seat the Libs used to hold.
lol yeah she must be made of gold.

Heard she's a very good local MP, and there's been a trend to Labor in South Australia in recent years from what I see. But even so 17% is insane.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 10:10:32 pm
If you want more #analysis of why seats swung like they did, I'll give you a few possible reasons >_>
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 09:59:38 pm
On another note, a look at the swings so far at the election (if the swing is -%, then it swung away from the Liberals)

Burt   -14.50%
Macarthur   -12.60%
Paterson   -11.10%
Bass   -10.60%
Watson   -9.90%
Blaxland   -9.40%
Chifley   -9.00%
Brand   -8.50%
Longman   -8.40%
Solomon   -8.40%
McEwen   -8.30%
McMahon   -8.30%
Flynn   -8.10%
Kingston   -7.80%
Wakefield   -7.60%
Rankin   -7.40%
Hunter   -7.10%
Port Adelaide   -7.10%
Herbert   -6.90%
Macquarie   -6.90%
Maranoa   -6.60%
Lingiari   -6.50%
Eden-Monaro   -6.40%
Kingsford Smith   -6.30%
Parramatta   -6.00%
McMillan   -5.90%
Pearce   -5.90%
Dickson   -5.90%
Franklin   -5.90%
Wide Bay   -5.70%
Oxley   -5.70%
Calwell   -5.70%
Dobell   -5.50%
Parkes   -5.40%
Menzies   -5.40%
Holt   -5.40%
Braddon   -5.30%
Fowler   -5.30%
Dunkley   -5.20%
Cowan   -5.20%
Canning   -5.10%
Flinders   -4.90%
Makin   -4.70%
Lindsay   -4.60%
Newcastle   -4.60%
Dawson   -4.50%
Forde   -4.50%
Swan   -4.20%
Hasluck   -4.20%
Barton   -4.10%
Mitchell   -4.00%
Sturt   -3.90%
Scullin   -3.90%
Lyons   -3.70%
Blair   -3.70%
Gilmore   -3.60%
Gorton   -3.60%
Greenway   -3.50%
Hume   -3.40%
Fenner   -3.30%
Warringah   -3.20%
Boothby   -3.20%
Lilley   -3.20%
La Trobe   -3.10%
Fadden   -3.00%
Riverina   -2.90%
Stirling   -2.90%
Corio   -2.90%
Mackellar   -2.80%
Calare   -2.80%
Moreton   -2.80%
Bruce   -2.80%
Moncrieff   -2.70%
Richmond   -2.70%
Shortland   -2.70%
Fremantle   -2.60%
Bendigo   -2.50%
Sydney   -2.50%
Gellibrand   -2.50%
Berowra   -2.40%
Wright   -2.40%
Robertson   -2.40%
Groom   -2.30%
North Sydney   -2.30%
Hughes   -2.30%
Leichhardt   -2.30%
Hindmarsh   -2.20%
Mallee   -2.10%
Wentworth   -2.10%
Lalor   -2.10%
Forrest   -1.90%
Bowman   -1.90%
Casey   -1.90%
Isaacs   -1.90%
Cunningham   -1.90%
Ballarat   -1.80%
Perth   -1.70%
Whitlam   -1.70%
Banks   -1.60%
Werriwa   -1.60%
Durack   -1.50%
Lyne   -1.50%
Tangney   -1.50%
Moore   -1.50%
Wannon   -1.50%
Capricornia   -1.50%
Farrer   -1.40%
McPherson   -1.40%
Corangamite   -1.20%
Hinkler   -1.10%
Bonner   -1.10%
Jagajaga   -1.10%
Hotham   -1.10%
Maribyrnong   -1.10%
Page   -1.00%
Adelaide   -1.00%
Fairfax   -0.80%
Canberra   -0.80%
Fisher   -0.40%
Cook   -0.10%
Bradfield   0.10%
Petrie   0.30%
Ryan   0.40%
Aston   0.40%
Goldstein   0.80%
Melbourne Ports   0.80%
Griffith   1.00%
Brisbane   1.10%
Reid   1.30%
Kooyong   1.50%
Chisholm   1.60%
Bennelong   1.80%
Deakin   1.90%
Curtin   2.80%
Gippsland   2.90%

Only listed seats with a conventional Labor/Coalition 2PP vote. The rest we'll see the 2PP vote in a couple of weeks.

4 seats experienced swings of over 10%. I know what happened in Burt, Macarthur and Paterson - they were all seats affected by the redistribution. In Macarthur and Paterson they gained areas that were heavily Labor-leaning, and the booths that were kept in the district had an underlying Labor vote that was lying dormant because it was swamped by Coalition-leaning territory and Labor didn't really campaign there. Also there was a large swing in Hunter (where most of the Paterson booths came from) in 2013 and Labor's old MP for Werriwa (which Macarthur gained substantual territory from) was not a local and was therefore unpopular in the district. In Burt this was a new seat created from territory that had a strong personal vote for Don Randall, but was Labor-leaning at the state level. With him not contesting for sadly obvious reasons, it was ripe for a huge swing, especially with a general recovery in Labor fortunes in WA.

Bass on the other hand is more interesting. Especially given Lyons and Braddon didn't swing anywhere near as much and they seem more fertile territory for the ALP. Was Nikolic really that bad of a candidate?

On the other hand, two seats experienced swings of nearly 3% to the Coalition. I get why Bishop's popularity would've improved in her seat, but Gippsland is interesting. I guess the CFA thing may have had an effect here (although given the results in McEwen I'm skeptical), but what's more interesting is that neighbouring McMillan had a fairly large swing well above the state average back to the Coalition. And there was a general trend back to Labor in blue-collar areas which Gippsland had a few of.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 11:17:06 am
Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.
But how strong though? Labor's current 2PP vote there is 51.5%. The reason why they were so strong the last time around was because of FIFO workers, and there aren't as many of them in this election.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 05:55:50 am
If Shorten gets toppled now, the ALP really needs to reform its leadership selection process.
Won't happen. Plibersek was kinda equovial about the leadership, but given how close Shorten has got he should be fine.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 10:29:29 pm
How do the senate elections work?
Essentially you preference at least 6 squares above the line or 12 below the line. There are 6 (12 in this election because it's a double dissolution, usually only the half the Senate is up for election) quotas to reach per state (2 in the territories). If you get above 7.7% (IIRC) you get into the Senate. If there are quotas leftover, it'll be how you go in preferences.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 09:38:26 pm
What percent chance does Shorten have of becoming the next PM?
Most of the in doubt seats were projected as Liberal gains/Liberal ahead earlier, just that the ABC turned off their predictive software and now are using the current votes. I doubt Shorten wins.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 10:42:04 am
LOOOOOLLL... several results have now been rescinded by the ABC and it's now 67-67 with 11 uncertain.... late returns are favouring ALP.

I think what they might have done is turned off the predictive stuff they use on election night and gone back to the raw numbers that were always better for the ALP.  Earlier on they were factoring in postal votes and the like, now I think they plan on just waiting for the final results since it isn't at all clear anyway.

I still think that the LNP are in front; although a hung parliament is likely.
Yeah this is 100% correct. Usually late polling favours the Coalition.
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