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January 29, 2015, 03:27:50 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / R.I.P. Never Convinced? on: Today at 12:40:03 am
I notice FreedomHawk's new username is "RIP NeverConvinced". What happened to him?
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Bashar Assad on: Today at 12:32:12 am
Clear HP but a necessary evil in this case.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How to Decide if a Poster is HP on: Today at 12:30:36 am
If anything... being nice is to often a pass for people with horrible ideas.
Unless they're actual fascists or something (which is rare on this forum, thankfully) I don't think we should criticise people for disagreeing with them politically.
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How to Decide if a Poster is HP on: Today at 12:17:05 am
I ask these two questions

1) Are they a nice person?
2) Are their contributions valuable?

If the answer to both is no, then they are HP.

I think this is a reasonably good guide. I'm perfectly willing to put up with a jerkish poster so long as they contribute. What I cannot stand is a poster who is a) a jerk, and b) doesn't add anything.

Thoughts?
Yeah that's a fair guide. Though for me they have to at least pass 1. 2 is probably 50/50-ish I guess, I wouldn't consider Oldies a FF for example despite probably passing 1 for example but I might do it for others. HP seems a pretty hard term, the IRC brigade should stop being so hard.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is "Anti-Racism" a codeword for "Anti-White"? on: January 28, 2015, 11:51:23 pm
No. F**k off, racist.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Hamilton on: January 28, 2015, 04:23:02 pm
The worst Atlas poster of all time. Hands down.
I wouldn't go that far, but he's probably the worst human being to join Atlas.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 27, 2015, 01:39:00 am
I've been doing predictions myself, including Google Earth versions of them (feel free to PM me if you'd like to see those) Will make final revisions day before election day:

KEY:
LNP
ALP
ALP by-election gain
KAP
Independent

Albert - Generally a marginal seat, and keenly contested by both major parties. LNP to hold on with a swing against them.
Algester - Not as safe for the ALP as the past may indicate, however it should be re-gained in 2015.
Ashgrove - Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands - we could see a situation where Newman loses his seat while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.
Aspley - LNP retain.
Barron River - Key contest, LNP favoured.
Beaudesert - Should be an easy LNP retain, with the former KAP leader not contesting, and a general decline in the KAP vote.
Brisbane Central - Robert Cavallucci is a hardworking MP, and although his seat may be trending LNP, it will be difficult for him to hold on in 2015. ALP gain.
Broadwater - More LNP (and National) than ALP historically, should be held by the LNP despite poor performance from the sitting member.
Buderim - Easy LNP retain.
Bulimba - One of the first seats the ALP will re-gain.
Bundaberg - LNP retain, considering the trend to the LNP here. The ALP would have to do really well to win Bundaberg back.
Bundamba - Easy ALP retain.
Burdekin - Labor will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Burleigh - Likely LNP retain, given the traditional LNP strength on the Gold Coast.
Burnett - Easy LNP hold, unless another independent, KAP or even PUP poll strongly, which isn't likely.
Cairns - Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.
Callide - LNP retain, with John Bjelke-Petersen coming second.
Caloundra - Easy LNP retain.
Capalaba - Likely ALP gain, the only Redlands area seat which the ALP have a good chance of taking back in 2015.
Chatsworth - Key contest, likely LNP hold, as the area seems to have trended to them at both levels of government.
Clayfield - LNP retain.
Cleveland - LNP retain, unless the ALP are on track for a sizeable majority.
Condamine - LNP re-gain, although the KAP's Ben Hopper, son of former member Ray Hopper, should come second.
Cook - Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.
Coomera - LNP retain, although with a significantly reduced majority.
Currumbin - LNP retain, given the trend to the conservatives here.
Dalrymple - Easy hold for Shane Knuth.
Everton - Tradtionally an ALP seat, the LNP could hold on here in 2015.
Ferny Grove - Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Gaven - Alex Douglas contesting re-election as an independent, along with the swing away from the LNP, could make this interesting. LNP hold for now, unless Douglas takes a sizeable portion of the vote, which may not flow back as preferences.
Gladstone - Easy ALP gain, given that Liz Cunningham is retiring.
Glass House - LNP retain, and should remain with the LNP on the current boundaries.
Greenslopes - Greenslopes' bellwether history could come to a close - while it's gone with the government since 1960, it's very much low-hanging fruit, and with former MLA Cameron Dick running for the ALP, they stand a good chance here.
Gregory - Easy LNP retain.
Gympie - Easy LNP retain.
Hervey Bay - LNP retain.
Hinchinbrook - Should be an easy LNP hold.
Inala - The ALP's safest seat at the 2012 election, and with its member Annastacia Palaszczuk now Opposition Leader, it should become a lot safer.
Indooroopilly - LNP retain.
Ipswich - ALP gain.
Ipswich West - Likely ALP gain.
Kallangur - Possible LNP retain in a tight contest.
Kawana - Easy LNP retain.
Keppel - Hard to call, the area has leaned conservative generally, right up until 2004, although Vince Lester was a long-serving MP, and no doubt had a decent personal vote. Likely ALP gain.
Lockyer - LNP retain, despite the seat being one of Pauline Hanson's many perennial candidacies.
Logan - One the ALP will definitely win back.
Lytton - Easy ALP gain.
Mackay - Easy ALP retain.
Mansfield - Likely LNP retain, with a significant cut to the margin.
Maroochydore - Easy LNP retain.
Maryborough - With Chris Foley re-contesting and an anti-LNP swing looming, this will be one to watch. I'd say Foley wins this back.
Mermaid Beach - Easy LNP retain.
Mirani - Traditionally a conservative-leaning seat, Mirani absorbed much of the old ALP seat of Fitzroy prior to the 2009 election. With former Fitzroy MLA Jim Pearce recontesting after losing in 2009, along with incumbent member Ted Malone retiring, this is looking like an ALP gain.
Moggill - Easy LNP retain.
Morayfield - Darren Grimwade might be a hardworking MP, but it's hard to see him holding on here in 2015.
Mount Coot-tha - One of the best seats for the Greens in Queensland, this should return to the ALP on the back of a general swing in their direction.
Mount Isa - Should be a fairly easy retain for Rob Katter, and Labor will likely come second, on the back of an anti-LNP swing.
Mount Ommaney - Very much a toss-up, although the Liberals did win here in 1995. I'd go for an LNP retain.
Mudgeeraba - Easy LNP retain.
Mulgrave - Easy ALP retain, particularly given the vote split between the LNP and KAP.
Mundingburra - A bellwether seat, Mundingburra will possibly stay with the LNP in 2015. If the ALP win this back, they will have likely won government.
Murrumba - Key seat, likely to go back to the ALP on current polling.
Nanango - Possible LNP retain, given that Ray Hopper, member for Condamine, is running here in 2015, and could benefit from an anti-LNP swing. This being said, the LNP should hold.
Nicklin - Peter Wellington will win again.
Noosa - Easy LNP retain.
Nudgee - ALP gain.
Pine Rivers - Should be an LNP hold, although the ALP will gnaw off a fair chunk of the margin.
Pumicestone - Key seat, if Labor win this they will most likely be back in government. Should be an LNP hold.
Redcliffe - Will likely be held by the ALP, although with a correction towards the LNP in this tradtionally competitive seat.
Redlands - Despite the controversy surrounding the soon-to-be former member, LNP retain.
Rockhampton - Easy ALP retain.
Sandgate - ALP gain.
South Brisbane - Easy ALP retain.
Southern Downs - The only question here is whether the ALP or KAP come second here.
Southport - Likely LNP retain.
Springwood - Likely LNP retain.
Stafford - The ALP will hold on here, this would have been difficult for the LNP to hold, even without the 2014 by-election.
Stretton - Unless David Forde polls strongly again, and the LNP don't lose too much of their primary vote, ALP gain.
Sunnybank - Given the history in this seat and the likely anti-LNP swing, ALP gain.
Surfers Paradise - Easy LNP retain.
Thuringowa - Will likely revert to an LNP-ALP race in 2015, with Labor in a decent position to re-gain.
Toowoomba North - Traditonally a conservative-leaning seat, Toowoomba North will be hotly contested by both the LNP and ALP. LNP hold in a close one.
Toowoomba South - LNP retain.
Townsville - While Townsville has tended to be a marginal seat, it has had a Labor lean, and the ALP should regain it.
Warrego - Easy LNP retain.
Waterford - Definite ALP gain.
Whitsunday - With the collapse in the KAP vote, along with the seat's history, a very tight contest ensues. Narrow LNP hold for now.
Woodridge - Easy ALP retain.
Yeerongpilly - ALP gain, with the real question being: Does Carl Judge poll like Geoff Shaw, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, or Adele Carles?

On these predictions:

LNP - 50
ALP - 35
Independent - 2
KAP - 2

Just a nitpick here - Dick is running in Woodridge, not Greenslopes.

Overall though good stuff.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will Wyoming become competitive? on: January 27, 2015, 12:49:12 am
lololollololololol.

More seriously, I think there could be scenarios where population growth could boom in Wyoming (e.g. more extreme climate change). But whether that will make it more liberal to an extent where the Democrats think they can win, I dunno.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate GOP Might Nix Filibuster For SCOTUS Nominees on: January 27, 2015, 12:47:14 am
Good news, if surprising.
10  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: A spooky coincidence on: January 27, 2015, 12:25:40 am
Wow. He did a damn good job of hiding his true identity if so.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 11:51:47 pm
One thing that is interesting is that instead of attending a forum in his own electorate ... Newman was campaigning in Toowoomba South and Bundaberg, on margins of 21.6% and 18.2%

Very odd. I can't imagine either of those seats ever going Labor, even in a landslide victory. Maybe he is campaigning in friendly territory for decent headlines?
Worth noting Bundaberg was held by the ALP by Labor or Labor-leaning Independents for the entirety of the JBP years. And Toowoomba North is competitive....maybe there's a flow-on effect from there?
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenge: Describe a 2000-2004 Bush, 2008 Obama, 2012 Romney Voter? on: January 26, 2015, 05:59:44 am
Traditional moderatish Republican who lost their job (or were otherwise dissatisfied with the party) in 2008, and felt Obama didn't fix the country well enough so returned to Team R, perhaps?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenge: Describe a Kerry 2004/McCain 2008/Obama 2012 voter. on: January 26, 2015, 05:58:20 am
Very butthurt Clinton voters who realised Obama was pretty good after all.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 05:15:49 am
Great job morgieb, very instructive (I would take more, but there is no more divisions!), but I suspect it's a typo?

Burleigh - basically what I wrote for Burleigh applies here.
Yes haha, meant Broadwater.
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: January 26, 2015, 05:15:12 am
Poll on the fairfax websited with over 25,000 votes has a 92% negative reaction to the announcement.

Admittedly, the readership skews left, but still... I think this might be the 'jumped the shark' moment.

The issue is the Prince Philip or the former defense guy?

Also, Happy Australia Day, mates!
Prince Philip.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Snowstalker on: January 25, 2015, 09:27:26 pm
Yeah I'd probably agree with most of what has been said in this thread. Annoying on the forum sure and I do enjoy trolling him, but he's a decent guy at heart. Can't really bring myself to vote HP.;
17  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to Unban Tyriontheimperialist on: January 25, 2015, 06:31:10 pm
Well if he was supposed to be unbanned...

x morgieb
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Americans Only: Who Would You Vote For (2015, Northern Ireland edition) on: January 25, 2015, 06:29:00 pm
SDLP. If Sinn Fein weren't terrorists though I'd vote for them.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Will Snowstalker and TNF start denouncing SYRIZA after they win? on: January 25, 2015, 05:57:43 am
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 25, 2015, 05:21:02 am
Mackay - although this is a Labor held seat, the sitting MP is retiring and the seat would be LNP held under federal figures. The swing could be small, but Labor should hold.
Mansfield - the Eden-Monaro of Queensland. Given that I think the LNP will narrowly win and the fact that the sitting MP seems to be pretty strong the LNP should probably hang on.
Maroochydore - LNP hold.
Maryborough - with Foley recontesting this looks interesting. Does he still have a strong personal vote? If the vote splits enough (i.e. LNP and Foley get a similar percentage of the vote and the populist right parties poll well) Labor could even win - they did hold the seat as recently as the 90's. All in all though I think Foley wins.
Mermaid Beach - LNP hold.
Mirani - with the sitting MP retiring, a former sitting MP contesting for the ALP and therefore the seat lacking the sophmore surge that similar seats will get, the ALP should be favoured here.
Moggill - LNP hold.
Morayfield - probably a Labor gain - the margin seems too narrow for the LNP to hang on and the recycling of the guy that lost in 2012 could also help with nullfying the effects of the sophmore surge. Federally however the Liberals did well here.
Mount Coot-tha - similar to Brisbane Central in that the Greens vote could nullify the swing a little bit, but Labor should be favoured here.
Mount Isa - KAP hold? Looks like a 3-way race, so anyone could win it. Katter did lose a lot of support in his own district in the federal election, but the LNP are probably on the nose in rural Australia as well.
Mount Ommaney - should swing big. Probably won't be big enough to really threaten the LNP here though.
Mudgeeraba - LNP hold.
Mulgrave - Pitt must be a freak, as Labor shouldn't have gone close to holding this seat last time. Yet they did, and it's hard to see how the LNP can win a seat they don't already have.
Mundingburra - the bellweather, even being the seat that saw Labor lose their majority in the 1996 by-election. I thought Labor would be the underdog here....but the seat does seem to be getting a lot of attention. I think Labor pinch it.
Murrumba - the seat was a fairly safe Labor seat before 2012 and would be more marginal under federal figures. I think Labor win it back.
Nanango - I don't think Hopper's gamble of running in Nanango rather than his original seat of Condamine will work. LNP hold.
Nicklin - Wellington should hold on. I don't think there's the same conservative antipathy towards independents like there was a couple of years ago.
Noosa - LNP hold.
Nudgee - should be an easy Labor gain.
Pine Rivers - Labor have their chances, but this seems a seat where they aren't optimistic. 2018, maybe?
Pumicestone - should be close, but the sitting MP is strong and Galaxy had the LNP ahead. I think the LNP hold on.
Redcliffe - Labor should hold, but there'll be a correction in the LNP's favour that will make the margin more like 2-3%.
Redlands - should be an LNP hold on paper, but there seems to be some local controversies that might hamper the LNP....expect a big swing.
Rockhampton - Labor hold.
Sandgate - see Nudgee.
South Brisbane - Labor hold.
Southern Downs - LNP hold.
Southport - although Labor held this before 2012, the sitting MP is solid and this is traditionally conservative territory. The LNP should be fine here.
Springwood - another bellweather. Would think the margin is too great for Labor to win, but they do have a reasonably strong candidate so it might have a large swing.
Stafford - Labor hold, though with a correction in the LNP's favour.
Stretton - like Algester, a formerly safe Labor seat that looks safe LNP on paper. Think they'll all be won by Labor again. Though the Independent running here did well in 2012, and he does lean Labor.....
Sunnybank - see what I wrote for Algester and Stretton.
Surfers Paradise - LNP hold.
Thuringowa - interesting. Traditionally though this seat is pretty safe for Labor, ableit with a populist flair that favours populist right parties. I think they'll win this back, but One Nation should poll well given they have a high profile candidate and also a lot of the Katter vote to mop up.
Toowoomba North - tough. Should be an LNP hold on federal figures, but Shine is running again and he seemingly has a strong personal vote. In addition this is an area in which Labor wants representation and their hunger could be enough to snatch the seat. Think the LNP hangs on...barely.
Toowoomba South - LNP hold, though apparently the LNP did campaign in Toowoomba, so perhaps this might be more marginal than what it appears on paper.
Townsville - with a high profile Labor candidate and a narrow LNP margin, this should be a Labor gain. The one published poll had them way ahead here.
Warrego - LNP hold, though apparently this has had visits from both Labor and the LNP, so it could swing.
Waterford - Labor gain.
Whitsunday - interesting. If Labor can mop up the Katter vote, this could be a surprise gain. Otherwise, I think the LNP narrowly hangs on.
Woodridge - Labor hold.
Yeerongpilly - Labor gain. How badly Judge polls will be interesting to see.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 25, 2015, 05:20:10 am
Albert - classic marginal. Expect it to be a bellweather, with the LNP narrowly holding on.
Algester - one of the triumvriate of seats that have been safe Labor and LNP lately. Expect them to swing back to Labor fairly largely and win them the seats.
Ashgrove - the seat where everyone's eyes will be on. With Jones returning (hence sophmore surge effects being nullified) and the seat being rather marginal Newman is probably the underdog, though if there's a late swing to the LNP his chances of holding dramatically improve, the expectations game could help Newman.
Aspley - would be more marginal under federal figures, but a 20% swing is a massive ask for Labor, they aren't quite doing that well.
Barron River - another seat that seems to be around the margin that Labor needs to win, I suspect the LNP narrowly hold on.
Beaudesert - safe LNP seat. Unlike in the past there doesn't seem to be any populist right candidates to threaten the LNP here either.
Brisbane Central - will be interesting. It's marginal but the high Greens vote might mean that it doesn't swing that much. The seat seems to be evolving too. Probably a Labor gain, but will probably swing less than the state average.
Broadwater - on paper should be a LNP hold, particularly on federal figures, but Labor need Gold Coast seats...and the local MP is apparently pretty disastrous. Still, I don't see Labor picking it up until they're entrenched in governement.
Buderim - LNP hold, yawn.
Bulimba - will flip back to Labor. However given the swing last time was a lot smaller than the rest of the state, it might not swing very viciously for Labor.
Bundaberg - probably too big of a margin to flip back, although Labor did hold the seat for over 100 years consectively.
Bundamba - Labor hold, obviously.
Burdekin - probably a LNP hold, but with the sitting MP retiring it could be close. Labor's best shot of prevailing is if there is a vote split among the right, which could be possible due to the fact that the seat is open.
Burleigh - basically what I wrote for Burleigh applies here.
Burnett - LNP hold.
Cairns - another key seat, but all the polling seems to indicate that it will flip back to Labor. The seat has a strong history of being Labor, but before 2012 it was often by small margins.
Callide - LNP hold. Would've been interesting though before the PUP imploded, as their candidate here is quite high-profile.
Caloundra - LNP hold, though McArdle will probably get a bit of scare.
Capalaba - although the LNP sitting member is strong, the margin is too narrow for the LNP to hold on.
Chatsworth - probably will remain LNP, but was a pretty safe Labor seat before the 2005 by-election, so it could either flip back to Labor dramatically, or perhaps it is a sign that the seat has become more conservative lately.
Clayfield - LNP hold, Nicholls would be have an excellent shot of being leader if Newman loses.
Cleveland - LNP hold most likely, from memory this part of the world has become a lot more conservative lately.
Condamine - had Hopper not switched seats he likely would've won this, but as it is it probably will stay with the LNP. Hard to see his son doing that well here.
Cook - on paper should be won by Labor, but there has been promising polling for the LNP. The swing will be small, but I don't think it will be small enough.
Coomera - LNP hold.
Currumbin - LNP hold. Interestingly though unlike most of the other Gold Coast seats this was held by Labor during the 90's, but flipped to the LNP as early as 2004.
Dalrymple - I suspect Knuth has a strong local profile, so a KAP hold.
Everton - this seat has traditionally been Labor-leaning, though there are signs that the seat is trending towards the LNP. As it stands Labor can win the seat, but the margin should be big enough for Mander to hold on.
Ferny Grove - tough call. Could go either way, but the sitting MP in 2012 had a volatile ministry and the new Labor candidate has a high-ish profile as a former Senator. I think Labor narrowly win it.
Gaven - Douglas's influence will be important here. He probably doesn't poll well enough to win, but he could steal enough LNP votes to hand the seat to Labor. Boilover potential, definitely.
Gladstone - with Cunningham retiring, expect Labor to win. Might have been interesting under CPV (Cunningham having anoited a successor) or if the LNP didn't run though.
Glass House - LNP hold.
Greenslopes - traditionally a bellweather, but the seat is too marginal for the LNP to hold most likely. Might not swing particularly big though.
Gregory - LNP hold.
Gympie - LNP hold.
Hervey Bay - LNP hold.
Hinchinbrook - LNP hold. KAP won't poll well here unlike last time.
Inala - Labor hold.
Indooroopilly - Labor did hold this during the Beattie years, but it was widely seen as a fluke that they did. LNP hold, Emerson will probably be in the mix for being a future leader of the LNP/Premier in the near future.
Ipswich - had Nolan retired or something Labor would probably have held this seat even in 2012. As it is it should be an easy pickup for the ALP.
Ipswich West - on federal figures would be an ALP seat. Expect them to win it back comfortably.
Kallangur - while on paper Labor winning the seat seems a reach, there have been some local scandals here relating to the LNP, and the seat would be marginal under federal figures. One of the seats that will decide the election, I think the LNP will narrowly hold.
Kawana - LNP hold.
Keppel - was a National seat for a long time, but that was helped by a very strong local MP. Without Lester the seat generally leans Labor, so I think Labor should win it back.
Lockyer - while this was a batsion of One Nation support which could help Hanson do well, it's probably been too long for Pauline to actually win the seat. LNP should hold.
Logan - should flip back to Labor pretty easily.
Lytton - should be a Labor gain. If the seat was safer though it would be hard for Labor to win due to the sacking of their original candidate.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you a virgo? on: January 24, 2015, 06:24:24 pm
Pisces tbh.
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Opinion of Chuck Lorre on: January 24, 2015, 03:06:55 am
AKA the guy who created Two and a Half Men and The Big Bang Theory.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Andrew Cuomo vs. Seth MacFarlane on: January 24, 2015, 03:05:58 am
Even if you don't like Family Guy/American Dad/etc, to quote what BRTD said in the Cuomo v. BBT thread, a silly TV show does a lot less damage than Cuomo.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Americans Only: Who sould you vote for 2015 on: January 24, 2015, 03:03:18 am
SNP if Scottish.

Otherwise it depends on my electorate. If it was close, Labour. Otherwise I'd afford myself a Greens protest vote.
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