Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 07, 2015, 10:28:13 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 255
1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: July 2015 Federal Special Election - At-large Senate on: July 05, 2015, 09:04:00 pm
[ 4 ] Dkrolga of Massachusetts
Civic Renewal

[ 2 ] Harry S Truman of Indiana
The People's Party

[ 1 ] Kalwejt of Ohio
Labor Party

[ 3 ] Poirot of Quebec
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Next Australian Federal Election - 2015/2016 on: July 05, 2015, 09:03:24 pm
Wow, does Ipsos normally lean Gren? That's a good number for Di Natale et al.

Where would they target? I assume Sydney and Grayndler are safe ALP because of their heavyweight incumbents.
Given preferencing issues, I'd be targeting Liberal-held seats. Wentworth could be worth its time if the seat were open. Maybe one of those North Coast seats? Greens did pick up Ballina and (almost) Lismore in the recent state election....
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: WI: Australian Federal Election 2013: Gillard survives 26 June spill on: July 05, 2015, 05:34:19 am
On the bright side, Jaymes Diaz would probably be elected, delighting us all for what would be otherwise a dark few years.

I'm assuming this isn't a joke, but is Diaz of the Turnbull mold when it comes to the Liberals?

Diaz was a candidate in a marginal who would never have risen beyond being a backbencher. The only reason anyone knows about him is because of a disastrous media interview in which he couldn't answer a question relating to the detail of a policy and kept repeating the first dot point.

He was pretty useless but it is still disappointing that politics in the media has descended to these sorts of "gotcha" moments. He probably had never presented in front of TV media before, had probably had no media training and is criticised for his inexperience. There are more incompetent members than him on both sides of politics and it is pretty tasteless for his stumble to be dragged up the way it is. He was running in a Labor-leaning seat that probably would have fallen otherwise, but the fact is, he was never ministerial material and his only mistake was inexperience.

Thanks for that. I imagine after a few terms in Parliament he would have been more ready for the limelight, perhaps.

He did keep it close, though; 52-47 isn't too bad. It could have been worse. But as you said, it was a marginal.

Getting a 2% swing AGAINST you when Labor were losing pretty heavily nationwide is pretty pathetic. Any Liberal with a brain would've picked that seat up in 2013.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Most vulnerable Senator up for reelection in 2018? on: June 28, 2015, 06:51:26 am
I'd say Donnelly. McCaskill second, saying Donnelly as he's less established than McCaskill and McCaskill won by more (against both very flawed candidates).

Tester and Heitkamp also very vunerable, but I'd imagine surviving partisan gravity is easier in North Dakota/Montana than Indiana/Missouri. Manchin has a bit of a feel of Susan Collins, but of course whether that holds true by 2018 is hard to call.

There are others who are vulnerable too, but Obama won their states, so as long as they run again, they'll probably start off as slight favourites at least. Whether that means they actually win though is hard to say.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The polls getting it wrong - post notable examples on: June 28, 2015, 05:35:20 am
Pretty much every recent election here has had a sh**t load of late movement towards the Liberals.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Atlas banned posters poll #12: Atheist2006 on: June 28, 2015, 05:31:43 am
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Rockefeller GOP? on: June 27, 2015, 04:18:08 am
Slightly less annoying Oldiesfreak. Not a big fan.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: June 25, 2015, 08:22:37 pm
The Killing Season is actually brilliant, hard to watch but so good.

So compelling ... Rudd looks like the smug **** he is.

The series actually rehabilitated his reputation somewhat I think. Although Gillard continues to come off as a far better individual than Rudd, it's quite clear he was the wronged party (by FAR) in the 2010 coup.

Episode 1 made Rudd look good, Episode 2 made him look distracted and Episode 3 made him look bitter and twisted and incapable of accepting ANY blame for his mistakes.
Episode 3 did produce one of the better zingers from Rudd's mouth tbf.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 408 people are running for President so far on: June 25, 2015, 05:53:13 am
I hope Pedro Torres jumps into the race soon.
10  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Let's talk about Deus Naturae on: June 23, 2015, 07:55:30 pm
Bump for obvious reasons.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Don Flanders on: June 23, 2015, 02:06:17 am
LOL awesome.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sander's Chances on: June 21, 2015, 01:55:00 am
For either to happen something extremely strange would need to happen.

That said, to knock off Hillary would require a massive scandal on her behalf and a lack of time to find another alternative. In the general he might have a shot if the Republican ran a really dire campaign or was hit by a massive scandal, his floor for obvious reasons is a fair bit higher in the general rather than the primary. B but both options are likely <10% of probability.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Hillary using gun control to get to the left of Bernie? on: June 20, 2015, 08:56:02 pm
Sanders actually voted against the Brady Bill and he was elected to Congress with the help of the NRA who ran ads against his opponent for supporting Gun Control. And there is one vote that Sanders is going to have trouble explaining.
Here is excerpt from Slate article titled "Bernie Sanders, Gun Nut"
But Sanders’ vote for a different kind of pro-gun bill is more puzzling—and profoundly disturbing. In 2005, a Republican-dominated Congress passed the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA). This law doesn’t protect gun owners; it protects gun manufacturers, distributors, dealers, and importers. The PLCAA was the No. 1 legislative priority of the National Rifle Association for years, because it shields gun makers and dealers from most liability when their firearms are used criminally. It is one of the most noxious pieces of pro-gun legislation ever passed. And Bernie Sanders voted for it. (Sanders’ campaign has not replied to a request for comment.)

Bernie was one of only 15 Dems who voted for this (joining 49 Republicans). For the record, Hillary voted against it.

Could Hillary use the gun issue against Sanders the way Romney used immigration against Perry?

This is a troubling vote. If Hillary's every vote is scrutinized then I don't see why the same shouldn't happen with Sanders.

Yeah, we all know if Hillary made that vote the usual suspects would call her a far right gun nut.
Difference is the usual suspects support gun rights anyway.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NH-Sen: Hassan leaning no? on: June 19, 2015, 03:23:52 am
She never sounded that keen on doing it.

Anyway good news for Ayotte, though given this is New Hampshire we're talking about she's hardly out of the woods.
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: June 2015 Federal Election - President, VP and Regional Senators on: June 19, 2015, 03:21:55 am

[ 2 ] Bore of Rhode Island and Averroës Nix of South Carolina
Labor Party - The People's Party

[ 1 ] BaconBacon96 of Colorado and Bacon King of Nunavut
Independent - Labor Party

[ 3 ] Dkrolga of Massachusetts and Altsomn Stmarken (JoMCaR) of Maine
Civic Renewal - Federalist Party

[  ] Write-in:______________________________

[  ] None of the above


[  ] Lumine von Reuental of Ohio
Civic Renewal

[ 1 ] New Canadaland of Ontario
Labor Party

[  ] Write-in:______________________________

[  ] None of the above

16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you become more liberal or conservative over time? on: June 16, 2015, 02:50:40 am
I've largely had a similar ideology throughout my life. Only areas where I've really changed are the death penalty (used to support it) and probably some "minority" issues (for lack of a better term - I find myself more culturally leftist, agreeing more with SJW's - back when I was younger I wasn't very politically correct).
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Atlas banned posters poll #3: AggregateDemand on: June 16, 2015, 02:46:56 am
Without redeeming merit.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Atlas banned posters poll #2: Einzige on: June 15, 2015, 01:20:53 am
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will someone besides Hillary win a Democratic primary/caucus? on: June 15, 2015, 01:18:43 am
If Sanders is still in by Vermont he has a good chance at that.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Atlas banned posters poll #1: Straha on: June 13, 2015, 10:14:25 pm
Anyway I didn't know him on Atlas but on AAD he's been quality IMO.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Atlas banned posters poll #1: Straha on: June 13, 2015, 10:21:33 am
How long ago was he banned? I've been here nearly three years and I don't remember him.
Was banned over 3 years ago.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What time were you born? on: June 12, 2015, 06:55:34 am
Sometime around 5pm.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is Kasich Just a Beltway Candidate? on: June 12, 2015, 06:20:43 am
Pretty much.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dirt on Mario Rubio -- a "Scarlet Letter" law in 2001 on: June 12, 2015, 06:08:46 am
Very pro-life, these Republicans.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the socialist avatars on: June 08, 2015, 05:32:09 am
What I find stupid though is Democrats having Socialist avatars. I mean the TNF and SWE types of the world fair enough and also some of the European leftists, but some people are doing it cos it's cool rather than them identifying as a Socialist.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 255

Login with username, password and session length


Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines