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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: Today at 09:59:11 am
McEwen - interesting one. The 2011 redistribution moved this to safe-ish territory on paper, but a big swing at the last election corrected this. It's hard to see the Liberals winning a seat they don't already have barring unusual circumstances, but the Liberals were apparently the favourites with the bookies before about April....then there's also the CFA issue. Whether that has a serious effect is another question altogether. In any case, it's also cancelled out by the fact that the Liberal candidate has been mired in a sh**t load of controversy. Labor should hold, though the story may be different with a better Liberal candidate.

Bendigo - although it is marginal, if the Liberals couldn't win this with an open seat in a climate like 2013, they likely never will. There's talk about this being one of the CFA seats, but I doubt that it will see the seat flip.

Chisholm - more interesting here. Was generally a Liberal-leaning marginal before 1998, when the then sitting MP Michael Woolridge defected to a safer seat and Labor promptly won it. Since then they've generally held it down to Anna Burke's strong personal vote, but now she is retiring. And the area still often votes Liberal at the state level. Were there not a large swing expected to Labor I'd call it a Liberal gain. Ultimately I'll play it safe and call it a Labor hold, but this along with Greenway and maybe Dobell has to be one of the Liberal's best chances of gaining a seat off Labor.

Bruce - a similar story to Chisholm on paper, being it a marginal-ish seat having a retiring MP. The Liberal candidate here is also a bit more high-profile than in Chisholm. There are however key differences. Firstly, the style of seat is different. While Chisholm is much like Deakin in that it is very homogenous swinging territory (except for the Oakleigh pocket), Bruce combines reasonably solid Liberal territory around Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill with very good Labor booths around Dandenong. For matter it is a bit safer than Chisholm usually. Secondly, I have doubts that Griffin has as much personal popularity as Burke did. Accordingly I think Labor have an easier time here than in Chisholm, although both seats will be tight.

Jagajaga - ought to be secure. There was some talk that this seat might be in danger, but that might have to wait until Macklin retires.

Melbourne Ports - this is interesting. On paper Danby looks reasonably secure, especially once you take into account that Melbourne Ports tends to be pretty inelastic. But his hyperventilating over the Greens could easily see his support on the left erode...and while I think he'll have enough support around Caufield to survive, if he were to finish 3rd on the primary vote I think the Liberals might cause an upset. Once he retires I'm pretty sure Labor lose the seat, whether it'll be to the Greens or the Liberals is another question.

Isaacs - looks pretty secure in my eyes, although the Skyrail issue may be pissing off some punters on the bayside. It's a seat that could be more marginal with boundary changes, the core of the seat tends to be pretty swingy but is counteracted by the Dandenong booths.

Ballarat - should be pretty secure. Was once Liberal-leaning about 20 years ago, but since the 1999 state election the Ballarat (and Bendigo) areas have been far more Labor-leaning.

Hotham - should be safe, especially with the new MP's personal vote.

Corio - Geelong may have been competitive back in the day (although the better Liberal booths in Geelong are in Corangamite), but it's pretty secure for the ALP now.

Holt - a safe seat for Labor, though demographically if this was in Sydney I could imagine this being vulnerable in the right circumstances.

Batman - interesting. Was once very safe for Labor but the Greens vote has exploded here, especially since Martin Ferguson's retirement. And Feeney's misadventures can't be helping the Labor vote. I think the Greens gain a pluraity of primary votes, but I also think that Liberal preferences will help get Labor over the line. Will still be closer than it needs to be, and neither result will really surprise me.

Maribyrnong - Bill Shorten's seat. It's as safe as you'd expect, although it has enough middle-class territory to make it more marginal that some of the other Western Melbourne seats.

Lalor - Julia Gillard's old seat. Again it's as safe as you'd expect, although only recently has it become uber-safe for Labor.

Calwell - another safe Western Melbourne seat for Labor. Stop me if you think you've heard this one before....

Scullin - as above

Wills - similar case to Batman. It's a bit safer for Labor on paper, but that is down to Batman being open at the last election and Wills not being so. While Labor's candidate has not quite had the same misadventures than Feeney has had, he did get the gig in a questionable preselection. With Liberal preferences Labor should still hold, but if the Liberals had preferenced the Greens I think this seat would've flipped.

Gorton - in practice, is probably Labor's safest seat in the country (Gellibrand and Grayndler have bigger margins, but both (obviously the latter moreso than the former) have Green threats which Gorton doesn't)

Gellibrand - the safest Labor seat in Victoria on paper. In practice you could see a rising Greens vote like one that we've seen in Batman and Wills did, but I doubt it will be anywhere near enough to put Labor in much danger. Maybe one to keep an eye on in the future.

Indi - in general Independents tend to get large swings on re-election as long as they've worked the district well, which McGowan I think has. She should hold on easily and get a big swing towards her. Nationals to finish 2nd too, because Mirabella is an awful candidate and their own one seems a pretty solid one, perhaps giving them an advantage here if McGowan were to vacate.

Melbourne - if Bandt was able to hold this on re-election despite a bad preference flow, this time around he shouldn't really be in danger. Indeed it feels like most of the interest for the Greens are in Batman, Wills and Higgins.

So no change in Victoria. Probably won't pan out that way, but meh. If it's an above-average night for the Liberals, this is probably the state to look out for against the grain gains.



My senate predictions are 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 for Derryn Hinch. There should be 4 quotas for Labor and the Coalition and 1 for the Greens straight off the bat, and the Coalition and Greens ought to be close enough to another one to get enough preferences to put them over the top for a final seat. I'll take Derryn Hinch for the final seat - him getting the donkey vote (i.e. the first spot on the ballot) will help especially given he's a well-known figure and he'll get preferences from both sides of the aisle that will help his position. Sex Party also a possible for that final seat, ditto the 5th Labor candidate. It doesn't sound like Ricky Muir or John Madigan will go anywhere.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: Today at 07:43:01 am
I keep thinking the CFA thing is more of a 'beltway' fascination... I don't see this being a decisive issues one way or another.
Yeah that's a fair call, but it might still swing 1-2% of the vote in key marginal electorates. I think most of these seats would probably stay Liberal anyway so yeah the effect probably isn't all that strong.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: Today at 07:02:50 am
Anyway, Victoria Coalition seats:

Mallee - the safest Coalition seat in the country. Obvious Nationals hold.

Murray - also an extremely safe Coalition seat, but this one is open and as it's in the bush we have a three-cornered contest on our hands. For this reason it's tough to gague - on the one hand the Nationals picked a stronger candidate IMO and at the state level the area generally elects National MP's, but on the other hand Labor are directing preferences towards the Liberal and the outgoing MP is a Liberal. Whether Labor can direct preferences that easily though is another question - IIRC Labor directed preferences towards the Liberal rather than the National in Mallee at the last election but preferences ran about 50/50 for both parties, and also you'd imagine in a rural seat there'll be a lot of very small booths without proper HTV staff. Will tentatively predict a Liberal hold, because I'm generally conservative with my predictions and the Nationals hasn't had a lot of luck with picking up ex-Liberal seats in the past. In the end though this doesn't matter as both parties go into a Coalition anyway.

Gippsland - another very safe regional Coalition seat, this one held by the Nationals. There are some Labor-leaning areas in the Latrobe Valley in this seat where Labor have underachieved in the last 10-15 years IMO, but they don't have anywhere enough influence here to flip the seat.

Menzies - the safest Coalition seat in Melbourne. Although Kevin Andrews has a high-profile challenge in Stephen Mayne, he has generally struggled to gain traction in his previous runs for electoral office and he'd be lucky to gain 10% of the vote.

McMillan - was once Labor-leaning, but the moving of Traralgon and Morwell to Gippsland and the decline of Labor support in the Latrobe Valley has hurt hard here. Like Gippsland an area like this voting relatively atypically for the demographics could lead to an above average swing here, but it 1. won't be enough to flip the seat and 2. will probably be counteracted by the CFA issue anyway.

Flinders - like most of the Victorian Liberal seats they generally aren't held by overwhelming margins compared to say NSW, but they are still safe.

Kooyong - ground zero for blue ribbon-values. Safe Liberal hold then, obviously.

Goldstein - another safe Liberal seat in Melbourne, though this one has a retiring MP. Shouldn't matter anyway, Labor will be lucky to even push this towards marginal territory.

Wannon - another pretty safe Liberal seat, though unlike the previous two this one is in regional territory so behaves more like Indi and Gippsland for example. Doesn't really matter for the purpose of this analysis though....

Higgins - on paper looks safe, but the seat also overlaps with Prahran which was famously won by the Greens after the last election and also has a high-profile Greens candidate. I'm skeptical of an upset happening here though as O'Dwyer won with a majority of the primary vote and probably needs to be taken down to ~45% to be in danger of losing the seat. So while there's room for a swing here, there's too many rusted on Liberal voters to see the seat flip...especially given I see (like most of Melbourne) Turnbull having more appeal than Abbott.

Aston - has been marginal in the past, but even in the high water mark of 2010 (in Victoria anyway) it failed to flip despite a retiring MP. Should be reasonably secure, then.

Casey - another reasonably safe Liberal seat in Melbourne, though there's some some strong Labor/Greens booths in the hinterland here. They aren't enough to fundamentally change the nature of the seat, however.

Dunkley - now we get to the marginal seats. On paper it's not quite on the first list of marginals likely to flip and Labor hasn't won here since 1993 when the boundaries were quite a bit more favourable. However the long-term sitting MP is retiring and therefore we could see an above-average swing here. The seat was apparently very close at the start of the campaign but has started to solidify for the Liberals. Will still be close, but I'll tip a Liberal hold. Probably one of those seats which goes to whoever wins government.

La Trobe - an odd seat based on outer Melbourne exurbia and Blue Mountains-esque treechanger communes. Usually the seat is Coalition-leaning, but Labor still picked it up in 2010. Still that election was very good for Labor in Victoria, so it's hard to see it swinging back given that I suspect the Liberals will (relatively) perform better in Victoria than what they have in the past unless Labor wins government. The CFA issue can't be helping either given there's a lot of bushland here as well...

Corangamite - the Victorian Richmond, though unlike Richmond the seat is still overall Coalition-leaning, in the sense that it was once safe Coalition but has flipped due to growth in a mid-sized city (Geelong/Gold Coast) and seachangers in the rural areas. A sophmore surge can be expected for Henderson here, and again the CFA issue will bite here. Should be a Liberal hold, then.

Deakin - the most marginal Liberal seat. Generally very homogenous and can be considered a bellweather seat. Given that I suspect the Liberals hold onto government, the presence of a sophmore surge here, and that Turnbull should have more appeal to Melburnians than Abbott ever did, the Liberals should hang on here.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: Today at 06:05:27 am
Grayndler? Also isn't losing it.

lol typo, meant Macarthur. Especially given it reads as Labor is gaining it - how can they gain a seat already own?
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why has Hillary dropped off so much since March/April? on: Today at 05:44:50 am
I think Bernie's been a lot more negative in that timeframe, which is part of it IMO.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Malcolm X (poster) on: June 25, 2016, 09:23:04 pm
Mixed. Can be kinda annoying here but he's a good guy on the IRC so idk
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: June 25, 2016, 12:11:43 am
Cheers, Vosem.

Didn't do any yesterday due to the Brexit amongst other things. I'll only put up the rest of NSW today cos I've got work later tonight. I'll do Victoria and maybe Queensland tomorrow.

Anyway, it's hard to tell the impact that the Brexit has on the election - it could well have none, but it may also be Turnbull's Tampa. Will wait and see. We probably won't know until Monday at the earliest.

Dobell - was won by the Liberals at the last election, but only by a narrow margin and despite all the controversy around Craig Thomson. You'd expect the seat to be won by Labor especially after the redistribution has made it a notional Labor seat, but the polling hasn't been so great for Labor here. It's also the sort of district that has given strong sophmore surges. I'll still predict a Labor hold/gain, though I could easily see a seat like this giving Labor a lot of strife on election night.

Paterson - was a safe-ish Liberal seat, but a redistribution has replaced Liberal-leaning areas on the northern side of Port Stephens with Labor-leaning areas around Maitland and Kurri Kurri. Accordingly this seat is now notionally Labor held and the sitting MP has seen the writing on the wall and retired. A straightforward Labor gain now, and this seat will probably not be of much interest in future elections.

Parramatta - generally is close but Labor usually have a slight edge here. It should hold given a swing back towards them but there's a bit of talk of it being in play and with better candidate selection/luck it may well have flipped in the past. Still say Labor hold although I can't help but feel long-term this seat will trend Liberal.

Richmond - the Vermont of Australia. OK not quite but it was once a very safe Nationals seat but since the hippies moved to Byron Bay and the population in Tweed exploded it has become a lot more marginal and now left-leaning. There's talk that the Greens are doing very well here, but the swing required to see them overtake Labor is pretty high and therefore Labor should be secure enough. Might become vulnerable if the seat were to be open for some reason though, however.

Kingsford Smith - was once a very safe Labor seat, but demographic change has eroded Labor's margin here somewhat. Won't flip this election but long-term will probably turn blue.

Greenway - interesting. Is Labor held by a reasonably comfortable margin but there was the Jaymes Diaz factor - after 2010 this was horrificly marginal. This time the Liberals have a stronger candidate and any personal vote for Rowland is already built in. I'll stick with a Labor hold as the climate won't allow a big enough swing for it to flip, but I think there'll be a swing against Labor here.

Barton - it was already hard enough for the Liberals to hold under the old boundaries. The new ones make this an easy Labor pickup, and the seat will be a very safe one from now on.

McMahon - seat-wise this was pretty iffy before the last election, but Bowen hung on with a reasonably comfortable margin. Traditionally this seat is pretty safe so there won't be much threat barring a 2013-like situation happening again.

Hunter - a safe Labor seat in the eponymous region. There are factors that might make it interesting - it's more regional than Newcastle and Shortland so there could be a trend in the future against Labor, but only in really bad elections does this area look vunerable. In any case, the Liberals aren't faring too well in the Hunter anyway.

Werriwa - ought to be secure, but there is a bit of talk that the Liberals are pumping resources into this seat. I have my doubts but the Liberal candidate here is quite well-regarded in the seat and popular.....

Whitlam - a safe Labor seat in the Illawarra that is even safer in practice as there's a lot of conservative areas that will always get outweighed by Wollongong.

Shortland - another safe Labor seat in the Hunter.

Watson - this seat was once competitive once upon a time, but boundary and demographic changes had make this look secure. Would expect a fairly big swing towards Labor given how safe it was pre-2010, too.

Newcastle - another safe Labor seat in the Hunter. It has occassionally been semi-marginal, but it's unlikely to ever be in serious danger.

Chifley - what Western Sydney actually is rather than Lindsay. Safe Labor hold, obvously.

Blaxland - another safe Labor seat in the battler heartland of Western Sydney.....

Cunningham - this is also (shock horror) a safe Labor seat in a mid-sized industrial city, except this time it's in Woolongong rather than Newcastle. The Greens poll OK here, but their 2002 by-election win was a bit of a fluke and in general they don't poll well enough to overtake the Liberals let alone put Labor in danger.

Fowler - another very safe Labor seat, despite the redistribution taking out large parts of Liverpool....

Sydney - on paper this could be at threat to the Greens but 1. the Liberal vote here is stronger than in say Grayndler and Batman and 2. they won't get Liberal preferences anyway. It might become interesting if Plibersek was to retire as there is some serious demographic change going on here, but realistically she has the seat for as long as she wants it.

Grayndler - a far bigger threat for Labor than Sydney, despite it looking safe on paper, especially given the Liberal vote here is smaller. Were the Greens getting Liberal preferences Albanese might be in trouble (though I'd still back him to survive), but as it is he's popular enough that he'll be fine. Once he retires though...even Liberal preferences may not be enough to save Labor.

So 3 gains to Labor in NSW - Page, Eden-Monaro and Macarthur. Several seats to watch here, though election-wise it might not be quite as interesting as Queensland.



As for the Senate, I'll predict 5 Coalition, 5 Labor, 1 Greens and 1 LDP. Coalition should get 5 quotas, Labor 4 and the Greens 1 straight off the bat. The Greens could easily pick up two, but their vote in NSW has never been great so I think the 5th Labor stays narrowly ahead of the second Green. Leyonhjelm probably has the edge for the last seat over other minor-right candidates, as they appear to be getting both Labor and Liberal preferences, and I think Leyonhjelm has more of a profile than other assorted minor right-wing candidates due to the fact that he's a Senator. Hard to know what kind of impact libertarianism has in NSW, though.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Guess the previous poster's real name on: June 24, 2016, 08:24:27 am
Adam.
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK leaves the EU... will Scotland get another referendum? on: June 23, 2016, 10:44:48 pm
Option 1 was inevitable after the 2015 election. This merely fast-tracks Scexit.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: June 23, 2016, 10:16:15 am
I'll do the rest of NSW and possibly Victoria later today (i.e. when I actually wake up). CBF doing this sort of thing at 1:30 in the morning.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: June 23, 2016, 10:14:56 am
OK time for my much vaunted predictions. Reserve the right to update if any new shocking information comes out.

I'll do it state by state, via a pendulum order (safest Coalition seat to safest Labor one).

Tonight, it's the turn of NSW. I'll do Coalition held seats first:

Farrer: based on Albury and the areas around the Murray River, this has safe batision of conservative strength throughout history. Obvious Liberal hold.

Mitchell: along with Parramatta this is the seat where the West meets the North, but this part of the world is both very rich and very religious, like all those Southern/Midwestern suburbs in the States. Unsurprisingly, it's the safest urban Coalition seat in the country.

Bradfield: yet another North Shore Liberal batisan. Uber-safe Liberal hold.

Parkes: although this seat contains Broken Hill, this is counteracted by how rural and conservative the rest of the seat is, and in any case Labor's vote in Broken Hill is nowhere near as good as what it was in the past. Obvious National hold.

New England: now here's something to get excited about. On paper it's another safe seat in rural NSW, but this one was won by Windsor in 2001 and held very easily before he retired in 2013. Sensing that the anger towards him and Oakeshott has declined as Abbott proved to be just as much of a failure as they predicted ( Tongue ), he's making a comeback this time around. It's hard to know what kind of popularity he still holds in the electorate until the votes get counted, but it's hard to figure out why he'd bother running again if he didn't think he could win. Against that, we also don't know how much the anger has subsided, and also the Nationals incumbent in Barnaby Joyce is very strong and has enough of a maverick image that will appeal him to voters that aren't 100% rusted on National partisans. Utlimately I predict Joyce narrowly holds.

Riverina: again another safe Nationals seat in rural NSW. Yawn....

Berowra: another safe North Shore seat for the Liberals, although it's probably less rusted on than say Bradfield or Mackellar. Hard to know what impact Ruddock's retirement has on the vote, we may see a swing but nowhere near enough to endanger the seat.

Wentworth: similar to the North Shore seats, although this one is south of Sydney Harbour. However, this seat is generally more progressive than the North Shore seats, and accordingly has produced some semi-vulnerable margins in the past. Turnbull largely corrected this in the last two elections, but since becoming PM he has lost his faux-progressive image, and accordingly there's rumours of a big swing being on here. It won't be enough - but it may push the margin below 10% and make the seat interesting when there's a by-election here.

Mackellar: Bronwyn Bishop's old seat, this is another uber-safe North Shore for the Liberals. I can't see her deselection having much of a impact here, it's hard to see Labor topping 35% in the 2PP vote even if it's an open seat.

Cook: like the North Shore seats in nature, but this one is based on the Sutherland Shire (and since the latest redistribution parts of the St George area). Still a safe Liberal seat, obvs.

North Sydney: similar to Wentworth in nature, though it's a bit safer as it doesn't really encroach on Labor territory. Should be another very solid Liberal hold, though the Greens vote here might be interesting to watch.

Warringah: Tony Abbott's seat. This seat has seen a high profile Independent challenge from television presenter James Mathison, but I'm skeptical of his appeal in this kind of district, especially given he has no real political track record. As funny as what it would be to see Abbott lose, it won't happen.

Calare: an interesting one. On paper a very safe Nationals seat, but there's a retiring MP here and the area has voted Labor in the past. So we might see a large-ish swing here, but not enough to truly put the seat in danger.

Lyne: another safe Nationals seat, I can't see any Rob Oakeshott's on the horizon here.

Hume: another safe rural/exurban seat, though this one is held by the Liberals. Doesn't matter anyway.

Cowper: another interesting one. Again on paper it's a safe National seat, but 1. the seat has been fairly marginal in the past (although that was before the seat added Port Macquarie) and 2. Rob Oakeshott, who is from Port Macquarie is attempting a comeback. It's hard to see his appeal here, but he should be advantaged by the fact that the parts of the district that soured on him the most were probably outside of Port Macquarie (and therefore still in Lyne), and the rest of Cowper doesn't seem so steadfastly partisan. I feel he may have left his run a late to win the district, but it'll give the incumbent far more of a fright than what he otherwise would've expected.

Hughes: the redistribution may not have changed the margin much, but it did turn the seat from a place where Labor can win in high water marks (case in point: under the old boundaries the 2PP vote was 50.5-49.5 after 2007) to a Shire based seat that is very much secure for the Liberals barring uber-landslides.

Bennelong: now we're getting to the seats that are at least halfway vulnerable. Although the seat is based on the North Shore there's a very high migrant vote here that tends to be less conservative than the white people in this area. Still Labor's win here in 2007 was somewhat atypical of the electorate as a whole, and it's hard to see Labor getting enough of a swing to put the seat at risk. At worst, it'll be in marginal territory.

Macquarie: the first properly marginal seat. Although during the Howard years it wasn't that marginal, it has become more so in recent years, perhaps because of demographic change in the Blue Mountains (Labor picked the state seat up pretty easily in the last state election, despite Labor still losing fairly comfortably), and possibly also because of the weakness of the sitting member. So it should be close, and certainly the most recent seat poll (yeah, I know but...) said that Labor would pick it up with a large swing. I still say the Liberals hang on, though it'll be close.

Gilmore: similar case to Macquarie. Again was once upon a time safe-ish, the new sitting member is much less regarded than the old one, and she has been in the news for less than positive reasons. I think demographically it's a bit of a reach for Labor to win the seat unless they win the election, especially given it no longer has Shellharbour, but it'll be close.

Reid: was a very safe Labor seat, but redistributions has seen it morph into the old seat of Lowe, and demographic change amongst the Parramatta River has seen the shoreline area of the seat become quite Liberal-leaning. Add that Turnbull (allegedly) is doing better in urban areas and that the local MP seems to be pretty popular and moderate and I think the Liberals should hang on here despite the Labor candidate having a profile in the more conservative part of the seat (read: he is, or was the Mayor of Canada Bay).

Macarthur: was a fairly safe Liberal seat, but a redistribution has cut out the exurbs in Camden and replaced them with Labor-leaning areas north of Campbelltown. Given that the margins in both here and Werriwa are somewhat deflated due to a lack of a real campaign in the former (AFAIK) and the parachuting of Laurie Ferguson instead of a local in the latter, the fact that the state seats that make up the district had pretty solid margins for Labor in the state election, and that Labor chose (seemingly) a well-regarded local candidate, it's hard to see the Liberals holding here. If Labor can't win this seat in its current form, they may as well give up.

Robertson: the more conservative of the two Central Coast seats, but both will always be marginal territory. There's talk that internal polling here has Labor in a seat-winning position, but a sophmore surge here is likely and O'Neill seemed a pretty strong candidate for Labor that won't be there this time around. Add that Dobell is apparently not quite in the bag for Labor and the Liberals should be favoured here. I suppose the vote of Lawrie McKinna in the last election may make it tough to predict, but I don't know which way his voters leant.

Page - another rural seat held by the Nationals, but this one goes deep into hippie/New Age territory around Byron Bay. This seat was made a bit safer by the redistribution, but Saffin is recontesting which will hurt Hogan's sophmore surge. Add that Labor appear to be doing better in regional territory and I think Labor pick up this seat.

Lindsay: everyone's favourite bellweather, this has caused Labor to obsess far too much over Western Sydney and get in touch with their values, mate. Again, a sophmore surge here is likely and it'll be compounded by Bradbury not recontesting, but there's some intra-Coalition tensions stroked by Fiona Scott jettisioning support for Abbott in the spill and claims by party members that she only won because of Abbott's support that could hurt the Liberals here, and also a recent poll that had Labor up by a comfortable margin. Still think the Liberals hold, however.

Eden-Monaro: everyone's other favourite bellweather and one that has gone to whoever's won government since 1972, this seat has been made a fair bit more secure by the redistribution, but Mike Kelly is recontesting and all signs suggest that he still has a solid profile in the district. Add that Peter Hendy has been a very high-profile Turnbull backer and therefore has lost some footsoliders due to the Turnbull/Abbott stoush, and also that he hasn't worked the district all that well, and Labor should win it back.

Banks - was once a Labor seat, but some demographic change around the Georges River and redistributions moving it closer towards the St George area has made the seat more marginal. It finally flipped at the last election, and a sophmore surge and general appeal towards Turnbull in inner urban suburbs should help the Liberals here, as well as the Asian vote (which is hugely influential here) is apparently leaning the sitting MP's way. There also appeas to be less interest here than in the outer suburban/rural districts. Accordingly I think the Liberals hold.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 08:46:12 am
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 22, 2016, 02:39:29 am
Will the votes take forever to count like most British elections?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 21, 2016, 02:42:55 am
Remain: 52%
Leave: 48%

Turnout: 58%
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: June 20, 2016, 09:57:46 am
More like a lolIndividualSeats situation.

Though in fairness, that isn't the only poll that shows a big swing against Turnbull. Although the district is very blue-ribbon it's in a different sort of way to say Mitchell....voters there tend to some left-wing views, especially on social matters and are probably disappointed in Turnbull's right-wing turn.

I'll make a bold prediction though - the next winner of Wentworth will be a Green. I'll probably look like an idiot, but demographically a lot of the seat is pretty good for them and I'm about 90% sure there'll be a by-election there soon....

Are you saying you think the Libs are going to lose?
No. But it'll be close enough that the right-wing of the Libs will strike back and topple Turnbull this term even assuming they win.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Hillary win Missouri against Trump? on: June 20, 2016, 09:32:04 am
Probably not, though you never know - if there's any election that could end up in proper landslide, it's one that involves Trump, and he's really flagging in terms of a campaign....
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: June 20, 2016, 08:31:54 am
More like a lolIndividualSeats situation.

Though in fairness, that isn't the only poll that shows a big swing against Turnbull. Although the district is very blue-ribbon it's in a different sort of way to say Mitchell....voters there tend to some left-wing views, especially on social matters and are probably disappointed in Turnbull's right-wing turn.

I'll make a bold prediction though - the next winner of Wentworth will be a Green. I'll probably look like an idiot, but demographically a lot of the seat is pretty good for them and I'm about 90% sure there'll be a by-election there soon....
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Newt: Let's Create New Version Of House Un-American Activities Committee on: June 14, 2016, 09:46:35 pm
Well congrats Republicans. It's safe to call you the American Nazi's now.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Avatar-less Posters on: June 14, 2016, 12:09:49 am
Majority tend to suck, yeah.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: In which states is your last name most common ? on: June 13, 2016, 06:22:28 am
Prevalent country: England
Dense country: Wales
Prevalent state: Pennsylvania
Dense state: Wyoming

As for my mother's maiden name:

Prevalent country: United States
Dense country: Bermuda
Prevalent and dense state: South Carolina

The name being so common in the Carolinas is interesting.

Paternal grandmother's maiden name:

Prevalent country: United States
Dense country: Wales (ranked #8 there!)
Prevalent state: Texas
Dense state: Mississippi

Materna grandmother's maiden name:

Prevalent country: United States
Dense country: Turks & Caicos Islands
Prevalent state: Texas
Dense state: Kentucky
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: In which states is your last name most common ? on: June 13, 2016, 06:12:52 am
My last name:

Countries (by frequency):
1. Greenland
2. Isle of Man
3. Jersey
4. England
5. Norway

Not all too surprised, given that it seems to have British origin. Next countries in order are Wales, the US, Australia, Guernsey, and Denmark. The apparent prevalence in Nordic countries is also interesting.

States (by frequency):
1. Tennessee
2. Arkansas
3. Alabama
4. Utah
5. Oklahoma

I have driven through the first 3, but never lived in any. Interesting, indeed.

Mother's maiden name:

Countries (by frequency):
1. Brunei
2. Northern Ireland
3. Belize
4. Hong Kong
5. South Korea

What an odd group of countries? Only one of them, Northern Ireland, is there any significant chance of descent from. The name is literally a misspelling of a more common name--apparently from a petty dispute my ancestors had (which sounds about right)--but it's the same pronunciation as an Asian name. Can't explain Belize, though...

States (by frequency):
1. Tennessee
2. Delaware
3. North Carolina
4. Arkansas
5. Virginia

Again with Tennessee?!? Also, I'm sure Virginia is bumped up by my family in Lynchburg, but they originally hail from Georgia.

Paternal grandmother's maiden name:

Countries (by frequency):
1. Northern Ireland
2. Wales
3. Australia
4. United States
5. England

No surprises here. Although #6 is Jamaica, which fascinates me. There are also nearly 10 times more Polish people with this name than those Kalwejt said had his last name worldwide. Huh.

States (by frequency):
1. Mississippi
2. Vermont
3. Georgia
4. New Hampshire
5. Arkansas

Let's just have a moment to reflect on the dynamic duo of Mississippi and Vermont.

Maternal grandmother's maiden name:

Countries (by frequency):
1. United States
2. Maldives
3. Germany
4. France
5. Canada

Only 1 person with this name lives in the Maldives, and it's the #2 country by frequency.

States (by frequency):
1. Michigan
2. Indiana
3. Wyoming
4. Ohio
5. idaho

Makes sense, this branch of my family is the one in Indiana.
Worth noting most people of Afro-Carribean origin tend to have British names.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: In which states is your last name most common ? on: June 12, 2016, 09:10:13 am
Prevalent country: England
Dense country: Wales
Prevalent state: Pennsylvania
Dense state: Wyoming
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 on: June 08, 2016, 09:42:26 am
Yet another gold standard bites the dust, joining Selzer and Marquette. Man, this cycle has not been friendly to the pollsters.
What did Marquette predict?
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: First elections you can recall on: June 05, 2016, 08:31:45 am
In Australia, I think I have vague memories of seeing a snippet of the 2001 election coverage. First campaign I have actual memories of though was 2004. Wasn't until 2010 that I pretty much ate election coverage up to the extent I do now though. I guess I supported Labor in 04 and I kinda liked Kevin 07. Shows that I was fairly naive.

US, 2008. My depth of knowledge of American politics back then was shown by me kinda supporting Clinton in the primaries because I found the idea of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton cool. Think I supported Obama in the general though.

UK, 2010. Only started to pay attention later in the campaign (i.e. around the debates). Unfortunately, I was on the Clegg train.

Most others (e.g. Canada, Greece, Ireland) is 2015/16 IIRC.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Sanders drop out next week? on: June 02, 2016, 09:43:34 pm
I feel like he'll stop around late June. He'll try and continue to persuade supers after June 14, but will stop after about a week or two when he realises that he won't be able to persuade the supers.
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