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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: insult the previous poster ....badly on: Today at 02:00:01 am
No-one cares about white bread and Fairly Odd Parents you tosser.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Massachusetts on: August 20, 2016, 06:01:31 am
safe r becuz trump dominated in primary
6/10, needs reegen democrat reference
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Say something nice about the other party's nominee on: August 17, 2016, 05:04:09 am
He destroyed the career of a lot of terrible people and exposed the Republican party for what it is. So for that, I thank him.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: TNVolunteer's Reaction if Any Republican Wins Statewide in New Hampshire? on: August 14, 2016, 06:43:09 am
If Sununu/Ayotte win he'll say that NH is only rock solid D at a Presidential level. If Trump were to somehow win it....I reckon he may explode.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Where are you on the Norwood scale? on: August 14, 2016, 06:39:33 am
2, which is kinda concerning for my age.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Will Donald Trump say the n-word before this is out? on: August 12, 2016, 06:59:26 pm
I feel like this is the end path.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Maine 1st CD on: August 12, 2016, 06:42:03 am
Originally voted Lean D before realising I had mixed the two CD's up. 1st is Safe D obvs.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: If you faced being drafted on: August 11, 2016, 09:25:04 pm
Tank the medical. Suspect I wouldn't pass it anyway.
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Anyone else missing "Angrie"? on: August 11, 2016, 09:23:29 pm
Missing her more than Mr. Eunuch, Jfern, or LL. I do wonder whose sock she was, though...
I honestly reckon there's a chance that she was a lurker who catched onto TNVol's style rather than a sock. Has happened on other forums.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Louisiana on: August 08, 2016, 10:27:50 am
Went slightly left-field putting it as "only" Likely R, partially because of what happened in the Vitter/Edwards race, so I think there's maybe an outside chance could reject Trump. Don't think it's likely though.

He wins 55-42-3 or something.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Pick one of these Republican seats to go Democratic on: August 08, 2016, 10:07:17 am
Florida, because I hate Rubio (or at least his hype) way more than Portman or Toomey.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate Ratings and Predictions - Georgia on: August 08, 2016, 10:06:26 am
Voted Likely R if only because Presidential results look very promising here and Barksdale's profile could be improved dramatically. Only issue is the run-off......

With Nunn/Carter/Barrow this would be Lean R at worst IMO.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is NH becoming VT politically? on: August 08, 2016, 10:03:02 am
Anyone else was hoping for TNVol's response when opening this thread?
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would Obama III's margin over Trump be right now? on: August 07, 2016, 02:45:38 am
Think there's too much hatred/polarisiation for him to be doing substantially better, but he's more liked so he'd have a better chance of pulling in some people who value honesty and perhaps some #BernieorBust types.

Would be interested to see how Biden would do against Trump though. Obviously it's a hypothetical but I think he could undercut any advantages Trump may have over the working-class.....and being a white man it would be harder for hate to build up in the same way it did against Obama or Hillary.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: States you want to see polling from on: August 05, 2016, 02:08:20 am
Alaska - always weird, Trump a pretty poor fit here. Will be keen to see the third-party vote.
Arizona - probably the most fertile state for the Dems that Obama didn't win, lots of Hispanics here.
Georgia - demographic change is favouring the Dems hard here, inelastic but is in play in a landslide.
Idaho - does the Mormon revolt extend to here?
Iowa - might be trending R
Kansas - read what Maxwell, and there was some weird poll a while back showing this close IIRC
Louisiana - probably won't be competitive, but Edwards won big here in the 2015 gubernatorial election, it has more been Dem-leaning in the past than the rest of the Deep South and there was a swing towards Obama in 2012....
Maine - might be interesting if Trump was doing better, plus also the ME-02 factor
Missouri - was a swing state a few years ago, and in a landslide is definitely in play
Mississippi - trended Democrat and a state where turnout comes into play...
Nebraska - because of NE-02
The Dakotas - were close in 2008 and Trump isn't a good fit here.
Texas - lots of Hispanics that usually don't vote that could be motivated by Trump, and also seems like a state where #NeverTrump comes into play.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10 on: August 04, 2016, 05:51:00 am
Congrats, TNVol.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the US House for 2016 - Summer 2016 on: July 31, 2016, 09:20:08 pm
Likely R. Not completely implausible that the roof completely falls off the House Republicans, but it's pretty unlikely. I suspect given how gerrymandered the House is, it'll be hard to see a 'normal' election flipping it.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the US Senate for 2016 - Summer 2016 on: July 31, 2016, 09:17:42 pm
I voted Toss-Up, but really Tilt D is the best way of describing it.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MO-Mason-Dixon: Trump down 1 BEFORE the DNC on: July 29, 2016, 08:50:05 am
Mason-Dixon is trash, guys. I'm not believing it until someone good shows similar things.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: July 29, 2016, 01:17:53 am
What's the highest TPP result in an Australian election?  I have a feeling that record might be shattered next month...

I know that the NT election is optional preferences so a TPP figure is less accurate, but its still nice to have and I'm pretty sure that its in the right ballpark usually.  Might OPV actually end up helping Labor in this election?  It certainly won't hurt them quite as much in other areas (the Greens haven't done as well here in the past and those are the preferences that exhaust in other optional preferential areas), and it wouldn't surprise me if there are a fair few normally conservative people who would normally preference the CLP (or even give them their first preferences) who simply don't bother this time and let their vote exhaust rather than flow to the CLP...

QLD 2015 was 62.8%, NSW 2011 was 64.2%
*QLD 2012
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 24, 2016, 08:20:53 am
Well it's bound to change Tongue

I suspect if it remains this close all the way through we'll see the vote thrown out.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 24, 2016, 01:06:38 am
It is really noteworthy how 'Coalition' Rural Australia is now.
Now? It's been conservative-leaning for years. That's what population decline does to you.
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How old would you think the previous poster is? on: July 23, 2016, 06:11:28 am
23 Tongue
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Put a Rating on the US Senate for 2016 - Spring 2016 on: July 17, 2016, 03:34:05 am
Toss-up, though if Tilt D was an option I'd vote that.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 12, 2016, 04:50:01 am
In relation to the North Shore seats, it's been a slowly emerging trend that in many places the Greens are the second party. There are times when these seats swing, but since the stronger emergence of the Greens in the early/mid-2000s, Labor has been an afterthought. Those areas are as much anti-Labor, as they are pro-Liberal. There are times when they might not want to vote Liberal, but they certainly won't be voting Labor.

Plus, despite living in the area, Abbott was not considered part of their tribe and a lot of Liberal voters, who are socially moderate/liberal and more pro-business than anything else were always made very uncomfortable by his social crusader status.
Yep, very good points. My overarching point though was similar to your second point, Turnbull is a far better fit for pro-business style Liberals than Abbott ever was.
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