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1051  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016) on: January 31, 2015, 04:42:26 am
Labor's conceded now apparently. Oh well, we still have a majority in South Australia anyway and Queensland is looking good.
1052  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 04:17:58 am
Still early days, but I think Labor might win this.
1053  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Hardest one yet: Describe a Wallace '68/McGovern '72 voter on: January 30, 2015, 09:50:41 pm
I guess there might be the odd populist Dem who didn't like Republicans but agreed with Wallace's style more? This would be more common had say Muskie or some other Dem won the nomination though. In particular there wouldn't be that many Wallace voters who voted for Ford over Carter, for example.
1054  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenge: Describe a Kerry 2004/Mccain2008 Voter on: January 30, 2015, 09:48:15 pm
Ancestral Dems from the South/Appalachia put off by Obama's 'exoticness'/perceived cultural liberalism (i.e. racism). (this one would be the most common by far)

General racists (though this would be very small)

The odd home state effect for McCain/Kerry - i.e. people who usually vote for the other party but liked them as Senators.

Pro-military types who saw Kerry and McCain as honourable citizens but didn't think Obama and Bush served their country well, perhaps?

The odd PUMA (different from #1 slightly).
1055  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 09:28:21 pm
I'll say 51.5/48.5. LNP to hang on to their majority, but it won't be 100% clear by the end of the night.
1056  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016) on: January 30, 2015, 08:38:52 pm
I'd probably say Liberals 52-48, the seat is more blue-ribbon than Fisher. If the Liberals lose this......South Australia may finally have a Labor government in terms of time in government to rival the Playfair's and the JBP's of the world.
1057  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in the Florida Panhandle or Northwest Arkansas? on: January 30, 2015, 07:09:48 pm
Panhandle at least has beaches.
1058  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 06:59:35 am
Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

The Gold Coast Bulletin reports that a ReachTEL poll of 1115 voters on the Gold Coast, conducted at an unspecified time this week, had the LNP on 48.3% and Labor on 29.4%, compared with 58.3% and 23.7% at the 2012 election. The paper also reports that internal polling by both Labor and Palmer United suggest Albert, with a margin of 11.9%, is “in play”, and that Labor is “hopeful of a win” in Broadwater, margin 11.3%.


I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooropilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.
1059  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: 2016 Democratic Primary: BushOklahoma vs. WalterMitty on: January 30, 2015, 05:11:00 am
Walter's not that much different from certain elements of the party, unfortunately.
1060  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Petition for leniency on Hamilton/"Napoleon" on: January 30, 2015, 03:38:10 am
I mean, at this point the whole sock policy just seems like a make-work project so that the moderators/administrators have something to do. It's pretty bizarre how up in arms the Regime gets about socking. Lifetime bans and all that just for making a second account.

That's never actually happened though.  We've doled out temporary bans to people who made second accounts a bunch of times, but only permabanned second accounts of people who were already permabanned in the first place.
Not true - Simfan and R2D2 were initially permabanned for making sock accounts despite being unbanned at the time.
1061  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which European Green/Hard Left/Handwringing Liberal party is the most pathetic? on: January 30, 2015, 02:23:12 am
KKE, Lib Dems, etc.
1062  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 01:11:05 am
I don't think the GST thing is that huge of a gaffe.

That said, I think most people should know that it's 10%. I can name the rate on top of my head, then again given I'm a training accountant it would be bad if they didn't Tongue
1063  Forum Community / Forum Community / R.I.P. Never Convinced? on: January 29, 2015, 12:40:03 am
I notice FreedomHawk's new username is "RIP NeverConvinced". What happened to him?
1064  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Bashar Assad on: January 29, 2015, 12:32:12 am
Clear HP but a necessary evil in this case.
1065  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How to Decide if a Poster is HP on: January 29, 2015, 12:30:36 am
If anything... being nice is to often a pass for people with horrible ideas.
Unless they're actual fascists or something (which is rare on this forum, thankfully) I don't think we should criticise people for disagreeing with them politically.
1066  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How to Decide if a Poster is HP on: January 29, 2015, 12:17:05 am
I ask these two questions

1) Are they a nice person?
2) Are their contributions valuable?

If the answer to both is no, then they are HP.

I think this is a reasonably good guide. I'm perfectly willing to put up with a jerkish poster so long as they contribute. What I cannot stand is a poster who is a) a jerk, and b) doesn't add anything.

Yeah that's a fair guide. Though for me they have to at least pass 1. 2 is probably 50/50-ish I guess, I wouldn't consider Oldies a FF for example despite probably passing 1 for example but I might do it for others. HP seems a pretty hard term, the IRC brigade should stop being so hard.
1067  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is "Anti-Racism" a codeword for "Anti-White"? on: January 28, 2015, 11:51:23 pm
No. F**k off, racist.
1068  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Hamilton on: January 28, 2015, 04:23:02 pm
The worst Atlas poster of all time. Hands down.
I wouldn't go that far, but he's probably the worst human being to join Atlas.
1069  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 27, 2015, 01:39:00 am
I've been doing predictions myself, including Google Earth versions of them (feel free to PM me if you'd like to see those) Will make final revisions day before election day:

ALP by-election gain

Albert - Generally a marginal seat, and keenly contested by both major parties. LNP to hold on with a swing against them.
Algester - Not as safe for the ALP as the past may indicate, however it should be re-gained in 2015.
Ashgrove - Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands - we could see a situation where Newman loses his seat while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.
Aspley - LNP retain.
Barron River - Key contest, LNP favoured.
Beaudesert - Should be an easy LNP retain, with the former KAP leader not contesting, and a general decline in the KAP vote.
Brisbane Central - Robert Cavallucci is a hardworking MP, and although his seat may be trending LNP, it will be difficult for him to hold on in 2015. ALP gain.
Broadwater - More LNP (and National) than ALP historically, should be held by the LNP despite poor performance from the sitting member.
Buderim - Easy LNP retain.
Bulimba - One of the first seats the ALP will re-gain.
Bundaberg - LNP retain, considering the trend to the LNP here. The ALP would have to do really well to win Bundaberg back.
Bundamba - Easy ALP retain.
Burdekin - Labor will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Burleigh - Likely LNP retain, given the traditional LNP strength on the Gold Coast.
Burnett - Easy LNP hold, unless another independent, KAP or even PUP poll strongly, which isn't likely.
Cairns - Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.
Callide - LNP retain, with John Bjelke-Petersen coming second.
Caloundra - Easy LNP retain.
Capalaba - Likely ALP gain, the only Redlands area seat which the ALP have a good chance of taking back in 2015.
Chatsworth - Key contest, likely LNP hold, as the area seems to have trended to them at both levels of government.
Clayfield - LNP retain.
Cleveland - LNP retain, unless the ALP are on track for a sizeable majority.
Condamine - LNP re-gain, although the KAP's Ben Hopper, son of former member Ray Hopper, should come second.
Cook - Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.
Coomera - LNP retain, although with a significantly reduced majority.
Currumbin - LNP retain, given the trend to the conservatives here.
Dalrymple - Easy hold for Shane Knuth.
Everton - Tradtionally an ALP seat, the LNP could hold on here in 2015.
Ferny Grove - Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Gaven - Alex Douglas contesting re-election as an independent, along with the swing away from the LNP, could make this interesting. LNP hold for now, unless Douglas takes a sizeable portion of the vote, which may not flow back as preferences.
Gladstone - Easy ALP gain, given that Liz Cunningham is retiring.
Glass House - LNP retain, and should remain with the LNP on the current boundaries.
Greenslopes - Greenslopes' bellwether history could come to a close - while it's gone with the government since 1960, it's very much low-hanging fruit, and with former MLA Cameron Dick running for the ALP, they stand a good chance here.
Gregory - Easy LNP retain.
Gympie - Easy LNP retain.
Hervey Bay - LNP retain.
Hinchinbrook - Should be an easy LNP hold.
Inala - The ALP's safest seat at the 2012 election, and with its member Annastacia Palaszczuk now Opposition Leader, it should become a lot safer.
Indooroopilly - LNP retain.
Ipswich - ALP gain.
Ipswich West - Likely ALP gain.
Kallangur - Possible LNP retain in a tight contest.
Kawana - Easy LNP retain.
Keppel - Hard to call, the area has leaned conservative generally, right up until 2004, although Vince Lester was a long-serving MP, and no doubt had a decent personal vote. Likely ALP gain.
Lockyer - LNP retain, despite the seat being one of Pauline Hanson's many perennial candidacies.
Logan - One the ALP will definitely win back.
Lytton - Easy ALP gain.
Mackay - Easy ALP retain.
Mansfield - Likely LNP retain, with a significant cut to the margin.
Maroochydore - Easy LNP retain.
Maryborough - With Chris Foley re-contesting and an anti-LNP swing looming, this will be one to watch. I'd say Foley wins this back.
Mermaid Beach - Easy LNP retain.
Mirani - Traditionally a conservative-leaning seat, Mirani absorbed much of the old ALP seat of Fitzroy prior to the 2009 election. With former Fitzroy MLA Jim Pearce recontesting after losing in 2009, along with incumbent member Ted Malone retiring, this is looking like an ALP gain.
Moggill - Easy LNP retain.
Morayfield - Darren Grimwade might be a hardworking MP, but it's hard to see him holding on here in 2015.
Mount Coot-tha - One of the best seats for the Greens in Queensland, this should return to the ALP on the back of a general swing in their direction.
Mount Isa - Should be a fairly easy retain for Rob Katter, and Labor will likely come second, on the back of an anti-LNP swing.
Mount Ommaney - Very much a toss-up, although the Liberals did win here in 1995. I'd go for an LNP retain.
Mudgeeraba - Easy LNP retain.
Mulgrave - Easy ALP retain, particularly given the vote split between the LNP and KAP.
Mundingburra - A bellwether seat, Mundingburra will possibly stay with the LNP in 2015. If the ALP win this back, they will have likely won government.
Murrumba - Key seat, likely to go back to the ALP on current polling.
Nanango - Possible LNP retain, given that Ray Hopper, member for Condamine, is running here in 2015, and could benefit from an anti-LNP swing. This being said, the LNP should hold.
Nicklin - Peter Wellington will win again.
Noosa - Easy LNP retain.
Nudgee - ALP gain.
Pine Rivers - Should be an LNP hold, although the ALP will gnaw off a fair chunk of the margin.
Pumicestone - Key seat, if Labor win this they will most likely be back in government. Should be an LNP hold.
Redcliffe - Will likely be held by the ALP, although with a correction towards the LNP in this tradtionally competitive seat.
Redlands - Despite the controversy surrounding the soon-to-be former member, LNP retain.
Rockhampton - Easy ALP retain.
Sandgate - ALP gain.
South Brisbane - Easy ALP retain.
Southern Downs - The only question here is whether the ALP or KAP come second here.
Southport - Likely LNP retain.
Springwood - Likely LNP retain.
Stafford - The ALP will hold on here, this would have been difficult for the LNP to hold, even without the 2014 by-election.
Stretton - Unless David Forde polls strongly again, and the LNP don't lose too much of their primary vote, ALP gain.
Sunnybank - Given the history in this seat and the likely anti-LNP swing, ALP gain.
Surfers Paradise - Easy LNP retain.
Thuringowa - Will likely revert to an LNP-ALP race in 2015, with Labor in a decent position to re-gain.
Toowoomba North - Traditonally a conservative-leaning seat, Toowoomba North will be hotly contested by both the LNP and ALP. LNP hold in a close one.
Toowoomba South - LNP retain.
Townsville - While Townsville has tended to be a marginal seat, it has had a Labor lean, and the ALP should regain it.
Warrego - Easy LNP retain.
Waterford - Definite ALP gain.
Whitsunday - With the collapse in the KAP vote, along with the seat's history, a very tight contest ensues. Narrow LNP hold for now.
Woodridge - Easy ALP retain.
Yeerongpilly - ALP gain, with the real question being: Does Carl Judge poll like Geoff Shaw, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, or Adele Carles?

On these predictions:

LNP - 50
ALP - 35
Independent - 2
KAP - 2

Just a nitpick here - Dick is running in Woodridge, not Greenslopes.

Overall though good stuff.
1070  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate GOP Might Nix Filibuster For SCOTUS Nominees on: January 27, 2015, 12:47:14 am
Good news, if surprising.
1071  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: A spooky coincidence on: January 27, 2015, 12:25:40 am
Wow. He did a damn good job of hiding his true identity if so.
1072  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 11:51:47 pm
One thing that is interesting is that instead of attending a forum in his own electorate ... Newman was campaigning in Toowoomba South and Bundaberg, on margins of 21.6% and 18.2%

Very odd. I can't imagine either of those seats ever going Labor, even in a landslide victory. Maybe he is campaigning in friendly territory for decent headlines?
Worth noting Bundaberg was held by the ALP by Labor or Labor-leaning Independents for the entirety of the JBP years. And Toowoomba North is competitive....maybe there's a flow-on effect from there?
1073  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenge: Describe a 2000-2004 Bush, 2008 Obama, 2012 Romney Voter? on: January 26, 2015, 05:59:44 am
Traditional moderatish Republican who lost their job (or were otherwise dissatisfied with the party) in 2008, and felt Obama didn't fix the country well enough so returned to Team R, perhaps?
1074  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenge: Describe a Kerry 2004/McCain 2008/Obama 2012 voter. on: January 26, 2015, 05:58:20 am
Very butthurt Clinton voters who realised Obama was pretty good after all.
1075  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 05:15:49 am
Great job morgieb, very instructive (I would take more, but there is no more divisions!), but I suspect it's a typo?

Burleigh - basically what I wrote for Burleigh applies here.
Yes haha, meant Broadwater.
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