Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Rating the Gubernatorial Races
on: June 07, 2014, 10:08:19 pm
Similar to my Senate Ratings which ranks all the races this year from most likely to be picked up to least likely.
1. Pennsylvania (R-Corbett) - dead meat, quite frankly. It'll take a miracle for him to come back.
2. Arkansas (D-Open) - while Pryor looks to be rebounding, Ross seems to be fading away quite significantly. Will be hard for the Dems to keep the seat here, though a comeback isn't out of the question.
3. Maine (R-LePage) - his numbers are actually trending up in recent polls. More Republicans of the moderate kind seem to be coming back to him, as Cutler's numbers seem to be increasingly be restricted to Democrats. We'll wait and see if that's the case on election day, and the firms are still saying Michaud is ahead.
4. Florida (R-Scott) - the FDP looks to be screwing up....again. Scott's numbers have been pretty consistently trending up and it looks like it might not be long before Scott is clearly favoured.
5. Illinois (D-Quinn) - no doubt Quinn is in sh**t, but Illinois is still very blue which could save him. Rauner being nominated is probably a positive for Quinn, as he is probably prone to being interpreted as too right-wing for Illinois.
6. Connecticut (D-Malloy) - Malloy has never had a lot of goodwill from the state's voters, and Connecticut is pretty friendly to moderate Reps, which Foley probably counts as. In Malloy's favour is that Connecticut is still quite blue, and Malloy was able to knock off Foley in 2010.
7. Wisconsin (R-Walker) - polls are all over the place. While it's pretty clear that Burke can get 45% of the vote without trying, it'll be interesting to see whether she can get to 50%.
8. Hawaii (D-Abercrombie) - as blue as Hawaii is, Abercrombie has long been unpopular and the Reps do have a serious candidate. The one published poll has Abercrombie behind his opponent. He does however have a strong primary challenger, and it is likely that all that it would take to hold the Governor's house is a Generic D.
9. Michigan (R-Snyder) - definitely Schauer is struggling, and this race is consolidating for Team R. If Schauer can campaign well he might bounce back, otherwise Snyder probably wins comfortably.
10. Georgia (R-Deal) - Deal isn't the sort of guy that would be well-liked by anyone. He holds the advantage, but Carter can knock him off with a strong campaign and Deal will probably make a few mis-steps during the campaign.
11. Iowa (R-Branstad) - Branstad seems to be losing momentum and now has some ethics issues clouding him. The good news for him is that the opposition
12. Kansas (R-Brownback) - yes Kansas is still quite red, and yes Davis is probably too left-wing for Kansas as a whole. But Brownback has shocking approvals and PPP and SurveyUSA reckon he's behind. Ouch.
13. Colorado (D-Hickenlooper) - Hickenlooper's position is stronger than it was last year, and his opposition is of weak quality. No doubt Hickenlooper has been controversial, but it doesn't look like it'll be enough to lose.
14. Ohio (R-Kasich) - most polls are clearly trending in Kasich's direction and Fitzgerald is struggling. At this stage, Kasich is the clear favourite.
15. Arizona (R-Open) - still very early days, but in Arizona the Republican deserves favouritism. Very hard to see how a Dem wins in a midterm.
16. Massachusetts (D-Open) - new polls are coming out showing Coakley ahead by only single-digits. Now these polls have high undecideds and are from lesser-known firms, but still the chances of Coakley screwing it up again is not out of the question.
17. New Mexico (R-Martinez) - King does have name recognition, and some polls has shown this as quasi-competitive, but his time as the AG has been controversial and Martinez has done a good job as Governor. Only problem is, how blue is New Mexico these days?
18. South Carolina (R-Haley) - Shaheen did push Haley in 2010, but Haley has been inoffensive as Governor and South Carolina is still pretty red. Ultimately it's Haley's race to lose.
19. Texas (R-Open) - it's still Texas. Abbott's leads over Davis are pretty robust too, and let's not forget Davis's main shtick is being pro-choice.
20. Rhode Island (I-Open) - treating Chafee as a Democrat for the purposes of this exercise. While Rhode Island can elect Republicans in the right circumstances, whoever the Dems nominate should be a clear favourite. Most published polling seems to relate to the primary rather than the general election race.
21. Nebraska (R-Open) - Ricketts lead was surprisingly narrow in the one published poll here. His only experience was losing heavily to Ben Nelson. Sleeper race?
22. Maryland (D-Open) - I don't usually write-off races without incumbents early, particularly at the gubernatorial level, but it would be hard work to win this one.
23. New Hampshire (D-Hassan) - Hassan's leads are robust and she doesn't have A-tier opposition.
24. Nevada (R-Sandoval) - Sandoval has been good as Nevada's governor and the Dems didn't recruit good opposition.
25. Minnesota (D-Dayton) - again, robust polling leads, lack of compelling opposition, strong record as governor.
26. Oregon (D-Kitzhaber) - Richardson is simply not a compelling candidate.
27. Idaho (R-Otter) - Otter's lead is actually quite small, but a lot of that might be down to right-wingers thinking Otter isn't conservative enough.
28. Alabama (R-Bentley) - Griffith is a turncoat. And it's Alabama. Bentley has been poor as governor, but will Alabamans see it? Unlikely.
29. Vermont (D-Shumlin) - it's Vermont. Only risk is the Progressive party gaining traction.
30. New York (D-Cuomo) - this could be interesting to watch as Cuomo's main opposition seems to be from the left (WFP apparently nabbed 24% in the latest poll), but it's unlikely that a third party will find someone compelling enough to seriously endanger Cuomo.
31. California (D-Brown) - Brown got over 50% in the jungle primary. At least Tim Donnelly didn't get the nomination.
32. Oklahoma (R-Fallin) - Fallin's basically governed as expected, and she has little opposition.
33. Alaska (R-Parnell) - has pretty robust polling leads, and Alaska is still pretty red.
34. Tennessee (R-Haslam) - Haslam is popular and won big in 2010.
35. South Dakota (R-Daugaard) - Daugaard is popular.
36. Wyoming (R-Mead) - it's Wyoming.