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1051  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is the previous poster a moderate member of their party? on: November 11, 2014, 01:46:13 am
Maybe more moderate than most libertarians, but otherwise no.
1052  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Travis Childers vs. Chris McDaniel on: November 10, 2014, 08:54:49 pm
Not in this environment (normal)
1053  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If a Supreme Court justice retires or dies in the next two years….. on: November 10, 2014, 06:42:56 am
Wouldn't Republicans be concerned with the risk of Clinton taking the presidency in 2016 and them losing the senate at the same time?
Not really. They can, in theory, just filibuster forever, but they know that, in reality, they can force Obama to nominate whoever they want.

46 Dems +Collins+Graham+Murkowski+Kirk (out of self-preservation) = confirmation for any center-left nominee.

Um, except for that pesky filibuster.
I thought that got abolished for judicial nominations?
1054  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which of the following 5 vice presidents is your favorite? on: November 10, 2014, 06:33:29 am
Quayle was just dumb, not actively evil.
1055  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Were the Allies bad as the Nazis/Axis? on: November 10, 2014, 06:30:41 am
I voted for the comedy third option, because the question is f**king stupid. Of course they aren't.
1056  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ranking the Senate Races.... on: November 10, 2014, 06:27:38 am
1. Illinois (R-Kirk) - while most people shouldn't take Kirk's seat for granted, he's in a lot of trouble for re-election. As this is Illinois, a good Democrat (i.e. Bustos or Madigan) will probably be able to defeat him, but he can still survive if the wrong candidate is found.

2. Wisconsin (R-Johnson) - the signs are not good for Johnson - he's not as loved by the base as Walker, he isn't a good fit for the state and unlike say Toomey he hasn't moderated. The two saving graces for Johnson are that 1. Wisconsin isn't as Democratic as Illinois and 2. apart from Feingold and Kind (neither of whom are certainties to run) the Dems bench here is rather weak.

3. Nevada (D-Reid) - if Sandoval jumps in this probably escalates to #1. But if he doesn't, Reid can probably go scorched earth against other potential Rep candidates, particularly if they aren't particularly experienced at running campaigns. For now, it's a toss-up, but it will probably move one direction or another soon enough. Dems chances will arguably improve if Reid retires, as he isn't popular.

4. Pennsylvania (R-Toomey) - this will probably depend on what night the Dems are having nationwide. Toomey has moderated fairly significantly since joining the Senate and would stand a good chance at re-election, but Sestak will give him a run for his money, and a good night nationwide for the Dems will probably help wash Pennsylvania in their wave.

5. New Hampshire (R-Ayotte) - Ayotte's approvals surprised me - I thought she was way too conservative (particularly on foreign policy related matters) for the state as a whole. But she is very popular. With the right candidate the Dems can definitely win, but I don't know much about their bench apart from Hassan, Kuster and CSP.

6. North Carolina (R-Burr) - Burr has been around for over ten years and he still isn't very well-known. While he could easily survive, a strong campaign from a solid Dem could easily knock him off. And IMO we aren't short of candidates here.

7. Colorado (D-Bennet) - Bennet is a fairly underwhelming incumbent, but the Dems overperformed expectations here in 2014, the Pubs don't have a great bench here (particularly with Gardner already holding one seat), and it is a Presidential year. For now Bennet deserves favouritism, but if the Pubs find a strong candidate.....

8. Florida (R-Rubio) - incumbency and the uselessness of the FDP probably means that Rubio will win, unless Murphy or Graham take a plunge. A potential Rubio retirement to run for President probably won't have a significant effect on the race.

9. Ohio (R-Portman) - Ohio Dems don't have a great bench, and Portman has played up his moderation rather well. He should probably win unless it's a very good night for us nationwide.

10. Missouri (R-Blunt) - hard to call. From memory Blunt was rather unpopular, and the Dems still have a bench here. Missouri isn't quite the swing state it once was though, and Nixon has lost a lot of appeal recently. Would like some polling here.

11. Georgia (R-Isakson) - Isakson will probably be favoured if he doesn't retire, but if he does there are a few good candidates the Dems can run here, particularly if Georgian Republicans pick the wrong candidate. But the 50%+1 is a killer, even in a Presidential year.

12. Arizona (R-McCain) - McCain's apparently running again, but he is about as popular as AIDS now in Arizona. Accordingly I think it is somewhat unlikely that he survives a primary. Recent history has shown Arizona as the Democratic equivalent of New Jersey - we'll always look competitive but we won't actually win the state. Unless Kirkpatrick or Sinema can be convinced to give up their seats, or the Pubs find someone really awful, the Pubs will probably retain it.

13. Kentucky (R-Paul) - McConnell's bigger than expected win here ought to give the Dems a reality check about their chances here. If Paul runs it's arguably not worth competing for. If he doesn't, then we still have a few good candidates we can run here, though Massie/Barr would still be favoured.

14. Alaska (R-Murkowski) - will be more interesting in a primary. If Murkowski wins the primary or runs as an independent, she'll win. But if she loses the primary, a solid Dem (if they can find one) will give whoever primaries her (let's face it, they'll probably be a right-winger) a fight. It will require a lot to go the Dems way to win this state, but it's not entirely out of the question.

15. Iowa (R-Grassley) - Grassley will win if he runs again, and he says he will. I suppose he could backflip though, in which case it's a toss-up, perhaps titling Dem (as long as they find a good candidate)

16. Washington (D-Murray) - the Republicans have a few good candidates that could be competitive against Murray, but in a Presidential year when someone as moderate as Rob McKenna couldn't win, they would be serious underdogs and probably wouldn't run a kamikaze misson to defeat Murray. But Murray could get upset if the night is good for the Republicans.

17. Indiana (R-Coats) - Coats might retire, but given Donnelly could only win by 4 against a candidate who made a rape gaffe, this state is pretty hard for the Dems to win. Their bench, unless Evan Bayh runs isn't great either.

18. Arkansas (R-Boozman) - Democrats probably need Mike Beebe to run to make this competitive, which is unlikely. That said if he does we have a barnstormer on our hands.

19. Louisiana (R-Vitter) - this seat will likely be open, but who can we run here apart from the Landrieu's? Even they probably won't be able to beat a reasonably reputable Republican for a Senate race these days.

20. Utah (R-Lee) - Lee's approvals are pretty poor by Utah standards, and he could face a messy primary. Still unless Matheson runs Utah is basically impossible for Dems to win.

21. Connecticut (D-Blumenthal) - Blumenthal shouldn't be in much danger (I mean Foley couldn't beat a relatively unpopular Malloy in two very good years for the Republicans), but his margin might not be as big as other candidates.

22. Kansas (R-Moran) - Moran shouldn't get caught napping like Roberts almost was. Orman will probably get crushed if he tried again.

23. California (D-Boxer) - only risk here is the top two primary system assuming Boxer retires - there's a very outside chance that it might cough up two Republicans for the general election if too many Dems run. I expect though that the Dems would clear the field better if a Senate seat was at risk rather than say a House seat.

24. Maryland (D-Mikulski) - Mikulski might retire...and Maryland did just elect a Republican governor. Still, it's hard to imagine a replacement Dem candidate being as awful as Brown, and Maryland is still very blue.

25. Vermont (D-Leahy) - Leahy might retire, but it's Vermont. I think most reputable Vermont Republicans would find it easier to knock off Shumlin than to pick up a Senate seat.

26. Alabama (R-Shelby) - Shelby might retire, but who the hell can run for the Dems in Alabama? All I hope is that we can find a candidate that isn't a turncoat (so better recruitment than 2014, basically).

27. Idaho (R-Crapo) - Crapo's drink-driving conviction might lead to primary trouble, but any Republican will win easily in Idaho.

28. Oregon (D-Wyden) - while Oregon is a bit too polarised for Wyden to win his races by mega-landslides, he is extremely entrenched in Oregon, and the state hasn't really acted like a swing state lately.

29. North Dakota (R-Hoeven) - Hoeven is a great fit for North Dakota. He'll win a second term easily.

30. South Carolina (R-Scott) - Scott should be safe in a state where he just won his race for the Senate easily and the Dems don't have a bench.

31. Oklahoma (R-Lankford) - it's Oklahoma, and Lankford won his race in a walk last time around.

32. New York (D-Schumer) - come back to the DSCC plz. He's completely safe in a state where the Dems have won every Senate race in over 10 years by overwhelming margins.

33. South Dakota (R-Thune) - he failed to get a candidate last election. Maybe he does this election, but he'll still be completely safe.

34. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - it's Hawaii, and Schatz won his race by an overwhelming margin in a terrible year for the Dems.
1057  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: November 10, 2014, 05:12:55 am
How the f**k is Le Pen winning? Has France gone insane or something?
1058  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Patrick Murphys on: November 10, 2014, 04:55:39 am
IRISH CONSPIRACY!!!!!
1059  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is the previous poster a moderate member of their party? on: November 10, 2014, 02:36:23 am
From what I can tell, no.
1060  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which GOP Senators would join Dems to provide Dems 50 votes? on: November 10, 2014, 01:36:17 am
Fat chance. Snarlin' Arlen was just about the only one in the caucus. Even Senator Snowe, our most moderate Senator in the early Obama years, would never have jumped ship.
We're talking about who would vote with the Dems to get 50 votes, not who would join the Democrats.

FWIW I think you weren't the only one who misinterpreted the thread title.
1061  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which GOP Senators would join Dems to provide Dems 50 votes? on: November 10, 2014, 01:21:30 am
Toomey and Ayotte would probably want to appear moderate or at least bipartisan to win re-election in 2016, so they can be reachable if the Dems need 50 votes.

And with judges, it is worth noting that Graham actually voted for Kagan and Sotomayor.
1062  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Former Queensland Premier, Wayne Goss, has passed away on: November 09, 2014, 11:36:24 pm
No age to die.

RIP. Very important figure in smashing the National monopoly in Queensland.
1063  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: If the two previous posters were running President, who would you vote for? on: November 09, 2014, 11:31:39 pm
Goldwater, because he voted for me.
1064  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: If the two previous posters were running President, who would you vote for? on: November 09, 2014, 07:11:37 pm
Goldwater's more moderate, EG's more dovish. So I guess EG? Depends on the climate, would be a swing voter if these were my only choices.
1065  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: US with Australian parties on: November 09, 2014, 07:55:55 am
West Virginia

Perhaps the main state that differs from an American political system to an Australian political system. You can guess the #1 reason why this is.

Wheeling/Northern Panhandle

Part of the big industrial belt between Pittsburgh/Youngstown. Like large parts of West Virginia there is a coalfield here. Would be rather Labor-leaning generally.

Eastern Panhandle

One of the few areas where the Nationals would be on the radar, mainly because this area isn't super dominated by coal unlike the Northern Panhandle and the south, and also due to DC surburban influence in the easternmost parts of the Panhandle. WV-2 might well be Coalition held.

Parkersburg/Mid-West Virginia

Again, Nationals wouldn't poll terribly here, but they wouldn't do that great either. The votes for the Coalition would probably be swamped by other bits of the state.

Charleston

A city with its economy built on industry and mining, as well as significant union strength = strongly ALP.

South West Virginia

The most coal dominated part of West Virginia. ALP generally get over 70% of the vote here, and never look like losing this district.

Overall

Labor has won this state for over 100 years, and it doesn't look like stopping now. Unlike other working-class rural areas there hasn't been much shredding of Labor support, either.

1972: Labor
1974: Labor
1975: Labor
1977: Labor
1980: Labor
1983: Labor
1984: Labor
1987: Labor
1990: Labor
1993: Labor
1996: Labor
1998: Labor
2001: Labor
2004: Labor
2007: Labor
2010: Labor
2013: Labor
1066  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: US with Australian parties on: November 09, 2014, 07:24:17 am
Maryland

A very interesting state. I would imagine it would be very schizophrenic, too. Here we go....

Eastern Shore

Much more rural and agricultural than most of Maryland and for that matter most of the Mid-Atlantic region - indeed having the feel of the South, the Eastern Shore would be a bastion of National/Coalition strength. They likely win MD-1 with margins over 60% every election.

Baltimore

In contrast to the Eastern Shore, inner-city Baltimore is heavily black and accordingly as strong for Labor as the Eastern Shore is for the Coalition. The city is gentrifying quite significantly recently, but that likely won't affect the political affiliation of Baltimore for a fair while, apart from maybe an increase to the Greens vote. The surburban areas are quite right-wing and polarised, with strong Liberal support with whites (difference between Australia and America here - large Jewish population, and America's basically the only country in the world where Jews vote left-wing), but Labor still having a base with blacks.

Southern Maryland

A former rural area that has since been hit by surburbanisation, it would be an important swing area in Maryland. Demographically it might lean Labor, but the main industries there seem to be military-based, plus there are still some old rural areas that haven't been completely destroyed by urbanisation.

Capital Region/D.C. suburbs

So this is where it gets interesting. In Australia, the "rich" is relatively monocultural. And yes, most people on the Atlas would claim that only whites are rich. But places like Prince Georges' County are both black and affluent. So this is difficult. I'd imagine that before 1998 this area would be quite Liberal, but since then has trended left due to the Liberals changing from a relatively benign center-right party to more of a populist form of conservatism under Howard and Abbott. In any case, this would swing hard from election to election. Might also depend on what sort of candidate the Liberals have running here.

Western Maryland

Appalachian Maryland, this part of America is based on tourism and agriculture. Labor would poll very badly in most rural areas that aren't dominated by heavy industry, and this part of the world is no exception - another bit of National/Coalition heartland.

Overall

Probably one of the more swingier states in the Union. Before the rise of One Nation, the state would have ordinarily leant Liberal, but that has changed dramtically, and Labor generally won it during the Howard years. But since Labor won back power it has swung back to the Liberals, and the state will likely remain volatile for a while.

1972: Liberal
1974: Liberal
1975: Liberal
1977: Liberal
1980: Liberal
1983: Liberal
1984: Liberal
1987: Liberal
1990: Liberal
1993: Labor
1996: Liberal
1998: Labor
2001: Labor
2004: Labor
2007: Labor
2010: Liberal
2013: Liberal
1067  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Forum IRC Channel, Thread 2 on: November 09, 2014, 02:24:36 am
everyone should probably get in right now.
What happened?
1068  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Can you create an Obama sweep in your state? on: November 09, 2014, 02:13:24 am
Challenges: Kansas, Arizona, Nevada
Nevada's pretty simple:



Las Vegas close-up:



NV-01 (blue), 57.9% Obama, 54.4% D average
NV-02 (green), 51.0% Obama, 46.6% D average
NV-03 (purple), 54.3% Obama, 52.9% D average
NV-04 (red), 59.0% Obama, 56.7% D average
1069  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-8: Fitzpatrick retiring on: November 08, 2014, 10:52:18 pm
Jim Cawley starts out there favorite. After 2012, I think Murphy is pretty much a spent force.

Also, hasn't Bucks been trending R relative to state? It used to be right in line with the state, but now it seems to have become slightly more Republican. I think Romney did better than he did statewide and I think Corbett did as well.
Fitzpatrick's district is the only Kerry/Romney district in the nation, so I think so yeah.
1070  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Prof. Victor Sanchez Williams on: November 08, 2014, 08:14:01 pm
I thought he did get ballot access. This f**ked my predictions hard.
1071  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: how would you have voted in ky senate race? on: November 08, 2014, 06:10:42 pm
1072  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If a Supreme Court justice retires or dies in the next two years….. on: November 08, 2014, 03:52:45 am
If there is a vacancy (or even just a recusal for that matter) what happens in the case of a 4-4 split? Just for the sake of argument, say the issue is the blockbuster national gay marriage case making its way up the ranks. What happens?

The lower court ruling stands.
And if the lower court ruling is split?
1073  Forum Community / Forum Community / Opinion of outofbox6? on: November 08, 2014, 02:42:15 am
Surely he's lying about his age?
1074  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which of the 6 GOP candidates highly valued by Betfair will run? on: November 07, 2014, 09:42:53 pm
All bar Romney.
1075  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What happened to Mechaman? on: November 07, 2014, 08:24:24 pm
Banned for 3 months, for creating "The Terminator".
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