General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Richard Nixon
on: March 14, 2014, 05:47:26 pm
Far too complicated to fit within the FF/HP paradigm. I'll vote FF just to be a hack and avoid any further sagery on my part.
I vote Neutral. He was a pretty good president aside from Watergate
, but I can't excuse his bad behavior either.
than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ranking the Senate Races....
on: March 13, 2014, 08:38:42 pm
1. South Dakota (D-Open) - it doesn't look like Pressler's getting much traction, which prevents any chance of this being a weird
2. West Virginia (D-Open) - barring a miraculous primary upset, this is looking like a coronation for Capito.
3. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - Pryor's campaign is collapsing pretty quickly, and he's trailing Cotton in the polls. I doubt spending much money here is worth it.
4. Montana (D-Walsh) - haven't really heard much about this race recently. Walsh being an incumbent is good news, but his campaign has had a rocky start, he's not really entrenched and Montana is fairly red.
5. Alaska (D-Begich) - Begich is still ahead in the polls, but he is mired in the early to mid-40's in a red state. I'm growing more pessimistic about this race.
6. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - under heavy attack from the AFP and other right-wing attack ads, Landrieu has gotten very unpopular. However, I still suspect that the jungle primary will have the final say - she probably loses if her vote is the decider, wins if it isn't.
7. North Carolina (D-Hagan) - this race is getting more worrying for the Democrats. Attacked heavily by the Koch brothers and the AFP, Hagan has probably been 'defined', and in a R-leaning state, that isn't a good thing. The one good news? Brannon is far too right-wing to win in North Carolina, and Tillis is still quite tied to the Republican caucus ru
inning the state government and isn't liked by the base. Still should be tight.
8. Michigan (D-Open) - no doubt the polling isn't good for Peters, but the state is still D-leaning, and this race is far from developed - Peters still somewhat unknown, Land not really defined yet. But the bad polls have been going on for long enough to not think of this as a toss-up.
9. Georgia (R-Open) - this race depends more on the Republicans than the Democrats. No doubt Nunn is a good candidate, but this state is still quite Republican, and if a normal Republican (i.e. Kingston, Perdue or Handel) win the primary, they probably win the general. But if the Tea Party get their candidate, watch out.
10. Kentucky (R-McConnell) - is McConnell in trouble? Yes. But he's still got $$$ and is running in a state that votes Republican pretty solidly federally. Whether Grimes gets over the line comes down to how well she handles being nuked by McConnell.
11. Colorado (D-Udall) - I flagged this as a race to watch last time I did this, but I did not expect Udall to be in as big trouble as he is now. First the polling showed him to be potentially vulnerable, then Gardner, their strongest candidate, jumped in. While it remains to be seen how good of a candidate he is in practice, this is one race the Democrats should start to worry about.
12. Iowa (D-Open) - this is one state where the Republicans dropped the ball. On paper, this should've been a great chance for a pickup as it's an open seat in a purple (albeit with a blue tinge) state. But the Dems concealed around one candidate, and all the Republicans got were a bunch of second and third-tier candidates. Loseable in a wave, but probably won't fall in neutral circumstances.
13. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - still think Brown is over-rated. Even if the year is bad for the Dems, doubt it'll be bad enough for fairly popular incumbents to lose in D-leaning states.
14. Mississippi (R-Cochran) - Childers getting in makes this race a lot more interesting. It remains to be seen how crazy one can be to blow a race in Mississippi, but at least we have a contingency plan here. Obviously if Cochran wins the primary, he should win easily.
15. Virginia (D-Warner) - Gillespie makes Scott Brown look like the most under-appreciated candidate of all time. Warner has little to fear.
16. Oregon (D-Merkley) - apparently a few potentially compelling candidates are interested, but none of them are particularly well-known, and unless the cycle goes from bad to nightmarish for the Democrats, any chances that this race becomes dangerous for Merkley seems far fetched.
17. Minnesota (D-Franken) - McFadden does have decent fundraising, but he's still a third-tier candidate at best and the base isn't big on him. Franken should be safe.
18. New Mexico (D-Udall) - yeah, nah. No-one who could even make Udall campaign looks like running.
19. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - while the primary is still very unpredictable, either Schatz or Hanabusa will most likely win the general.
20. Tennessee (R-Alexander) - I did see one poll which showed that this race might become interesting if Alexander got primaried, it is only one data point, we don't have a contingency plan ala Mississippi and Alexander doesn't look to be in too much danger in a primary anyway.
21. Kansas (R-Roberts) - Roberts looks pretty safe in a primary, though PPP did show his approvals low and a potentially interesting race if he does get Tea Partied.
22. Maine (R-Collins) - barring a major primary upset, Collins is safe. While Bellows trying to run as a strong progressive might be an interesting strategy for future races, I doubt she gets much traction.
23. South Carolina-A (R-Graham) - even if Graham does get primaried, there are no signs that the Democrats look interested in competing here.
24. Nebraska (R-Open) - on paper, an open seat should be interesting, but the Democrats don't have a candidate.
25. New Jersey (D-Booker) - Booker won by an underwhelming margin in 2013, but he looks safe this time around. Besides, he's cozied up to the NJRP enough to avoid serious opposition.
26. Oklahoma-B (R-Open) - although this is an open seat, and Oklahoma do have a couple of interesting Democrats who could hypothetically make this race interesting, it doesn't look like they have any interest in running.
27. Massachusetts (D-Markey) - Markey might be uninspiring, but this is Massachusetts and he hasn't really done anything to offend his constituents.
28. Texas (R-Cornyn) - now that Cornyn has won his primary, he should be safe. Alameel has money, but he isn't anywhere near seasoned enough to test Cornyn.
29. Delaware (D-Coons) - Coons isn't super-entrenched, but he's running in a blue state without a proper candidate.
30. South Carolina-B (R-Scott) - Democrats have better opportunities in other statewide offices.
31. Illinois (D-Durbin) - Durbin is entrenched.
32. Idaho (R-Risch) - it's Idaho.
33. Oklahoma-A (R-Inhofe) - Inhofe is entrenched and it's Oklahoma.
34. Alabama (R-Sessions) - Sessions is entrenched and it's Alabama.
35. Rhode Island (D-Reed) - Reed is entrenched and it's Rhode Island.
36. Wyoming (R-Enzi) - Enzi is entrenched and it's Wyoming.
Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your Ideal 50/50 Senate (Happy now?)
on: March 13, 2014, 06:25:01 am
Louisiana: Mary Landrieu/McAllister
New Hampshire: Shea-Porter/Bass
New Jersey: Holt/Smith
New Mexico: Udall/Martinez
New York: De Blasio/Gibson
North Carolina: Miller/Jones
North Dakota: Heitkamp/Hoeven
Rhode Island: Whitehouse/Careci
South Carolina: Clyburn/Haley
South Dakota: Herseth-Sandlin/Thune
West Virginia: Rockefeller/Capito