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1051  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Craziest results of this election on: November 05, 2014, 06:09:41 am
Also:

Maffei getting Blanched.
Warner winning by less than Obama (and probably Kaine) did.
NV-04, TX-23 and GA-12 flipping, and MD-06, Jim Costa's and Louise Slaughter's district being extremely narrow.
Tennant underperforming Obama.
Pryor getting Blanched.
Roberts winning rather easily, and Brownback hanging on. Congrats, Phil.
Perdue and Deal avoiding run-offs.
Rauner winning fairly comfortably - IIRC Quinn was restricted to Cook.
1052  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Craziest results of this election on: November 05, 2014, 06:03:49 am
Republicans winning Maryland and pushing Shumlin in Vermont under 50%. I mean, WTF?
1053  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Places where Democrats exceeded expectations on: November 05, 2014, 06:00:35 am
UT-04, because Mormons are racist.
WV-02, because Mooney's a carpetbagger, and that area isn't super dominated by coal.
Some of those Arizonan house seats.
FL-02. Along with Pat Murphy Gwen Graham would make a great candidate for statewide races.
Michigan senate. Yes Land being dire helped, but Peters outpolled several Dems in safer states (i.e. Franken and Durbin).
1054  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Ranking the Senate Races.... on: November 04, 2014, 05:45:25 pm
Safe Pickup

1. West Virginia (D-Open)

2. Montana (D-Open)

Likely Pickup

3. South Dakota (D-Open) - looks like the polls showing this close were too optimistic. Rounds should win somewhat comfortably.

4. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - Pryor's clearly behind in every poll I've seen. RIP, HP.

Tilt Pickup

5. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - run-off could be Landrieu's saving grace.

6. Colorado (D-Udall) - oh dear. Yes Colorado Dems have a history of closing well, but the current voting numbers looks really pessimistic and Gardner ain't Ken Buck.

7. Alaska (D-Begich)

8. Iowa (D-Open) - closest race so far. Will get interesting.

Tilt Retention

9. Kansas (R-Roberts) - Roberts has caught up to a reasonable degree. While he's only pegged it back enough to be a tie,

10. North Carolina (D-Hagan)

Lean Retention

11. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - starting to get interesting. This state is historically rather volatile so an upset wouldn't surprise, though the night would have to be very bad to make it happen.

12. Georgia (R-Open) - Perdue looks better now. Outside chance of him even avoiding a run-off, though the early vote numbers look promising for Team D.

Likely Retention

13. Kentucky (R-McConnell) - polls are looking very solid for him now, he should be fine.

14. Virginia (D-Warner) - might this be closer than most people expect? 2 new polls have him up by underwhelming margins, and there's a lack of exciting races here which may hurt Dem turnout.....

Safe Retention

15. New Mexico (D-Udall) - Weh is sorta reputable, and one poll showed this in kinda interesting territory, but probably nothing to really fear from Udall.

16. Minnesota (D-Franken) - possible bolter I guess, but unlike comparable races there is an incumbent Democrat governor here that is popular and should mean there won't be much of a wave here.

17. Illinois (D-Durbin) - Durbin's numbers are rather underwhelming, but no reason to believe he is in danger.

18. Michigan (D-Open) - in the Spring this was considered a toss-up. Think about that.

19. Mississippi (R-Cochran) - mainly because the Dem candidate is half-way reputable, in reality this is Mississippi and Cochran is well entrenched. I would've liked to see some polling here though.

20. South Carolina-A (R-Graham) - mainly because the Dem was talked about as a potential candidate in the past and Graham isn't very popular, in reality though Graham will win fairly easily as this is South Carolina and it's not trending D that fast.

21. New Jersey (D-Booker) - as this is New Jersey, Booker might not win by a huge margin, but he'll win regardless.

22. Massachusetts (D-Markey) - Markey's not inspiring but he's safe.

23. Oklahoma-A (R-Inhofe) - Inhofe isn't that well liked, but this is Oklahoma.

24. Oregon (D-Merkley) - what a failure Wehby turned out to be. LOL Politico.

25. Texas (R-Cornyn) - Cornyn is reasonably well entrenched and Texas ain't turning blue that fast.

26. Delaware (D-Coons) - Reps don't really exist in Delaware anymore.

27. South Carolina-B (R-Scott) - Scott I imagine is more well-liked than Graham, and he's facing a black anyway.

28. Nebraska (R-Open) - Sasse should be a rising star in the Republican party. This cycle seems to favour those who can appeal to moderates and conservatives, and Sasse has that.

29. Oklahoma-B (R-Open) - Johnson is out of step for the state, and Lankford (unlike Inhofe) hasn't done anything yet to upset certain Okies.

30. Maine (R-Collins) - Collins is super entrenched.

31. Tennessee (R-Alexander) - Gordon Ball is not a serious candidate.

32. Idaho (R-Risch) - it's Idaho.

33. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - it's Hawaii. Besides, Cavasso is not a serious candidate, and Ige winning his primary probably helps nullify significnat backlash in the Asian community due to the circumstances around Schatz's appointment.

34. Rhode Island (D-Reed) - it's Rhode Island, and Reed is well entrenched.

35. Wyoming (R-Enzi) - it's Wyoming, and Enzi is well well entrenched.

36. Alabama (R-Sessions) - well done, Jeff Sessions. You are the only major party candidate to avoid a Democratic challenger.
1055  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Joe Republic Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: November 04, 2014, 04:41:21 pm
Mine to be renamed in Sawx's honour plz
1056  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Post your FIRST 2014 Senate Prediction. on: November 04, 2014, 04:42:32 am


October 2013, IIRC.
1057  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: November 04, 2014, 04:37:59 am
Sounds pretty Republican to me.

Also WHOOOOSHHH at Branden Corderio's stating angus's guy isn't interested in politics. Tongue

Age: 22
Gender: Male
Race: White
Occupation: Some position in the Navy
Income: $40,000
Martial status: Single
Religion: Atheist
Location: Yuba City, California

FTR, this is based off someone I know (well, if this was 25 years ago Tongue), so guess well, my friends.

Probably quite moderate overall. Most likely a Democrat. If he is a Republican, he's liberal on social issues and hates the socially conservative wing of the GOP.
That example was actually my stepdad, and while he's somewhat apathetic to politics these days, he was rather left-wing back in the day - for example he owned a book written by Al Franken and a book called "The 5 Lies Bush Told Us About Iraq". He still thinks America was founded on great ideals, but he thinks that America has changed from its original purpose too much. The fact that he now lives in Australia (though still has American citizenship) doesn't help much either most likely.

In Australia he voted Green in the two elections he's eligible for, but he doesn't have as much interest as me or my mum.
Age: 49
Gender: Male
Race: White
Occupation: High school English teacher
Income: $54,000
Marital status: Married (3 kids)
Religion: Methodist
Location: Hardin County, Ohio.
Served 3 years in Army, including tour in Kuwait during Gulf War I.
Probably Republican leaning, but would agree more with Democrats on education and some other fiscal issues.

Age: 46
Gender: Male
Race: White
Occupation: Store clerk, held car manufacturing position until 2008
Income: $39,000
Martial status: Married, 2 kids
Religion: Catholic
Location: Warren, Michigan
1058  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: For those living outside the Americas: are you staying up tomorrow night? on: November 04, 2014, 04:06:51 am
The election will be morning/afternoon, so I'll be awake anyway Tongue
1059  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you a young white non-straight male? on: November 04, 2014, 12:26:21 am
1060  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Joe Republic Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: November 03, 2014, 09:54:30 pm
This next Presidential Election Season, Hillary Clinton is terminated.

She cannot escape it.  Her record is about to catch up with her in a bad bad way.  Did she and Obama really think that Benghazi would slip by the public consciousness?  Especially in today's political climate where newsfeeds, blogs, and other internet sources constantly carp on about it?

And we certainly know that Fox News certainly won't shut up about it.  I mean hey I don't like Fox News, but on some things (like Benghazi, the IRS scandals, "Fast and Furious", among other Obama era controversies) they are absolutely right!  And I believe that come 2016 every Republican in the nation will be begging the Democrats to nominate Hillary for the guaranteed landslide election they will win when the utter incompetence of the administration in handling that crisis was.

You have to wonder sometimes if there is a conspiracy afoot, given the lack of details and the slowness of the Administration to the incident.  That the national news media and others have tried to keep this issue silent, despite it constantly being in the public's mind, speaks volumes to how desperate they are in not having it impact the ballot success of Democrats.

So I hope you've enjoyed your dishonest victories, because they will be coming to a crashing end.  Both tomorrow on election day and in two years from now when the Democratic brand is repudiated thoroughly.
1061  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: AR: ORA: Ross + 4 on: November 03, 2014, 04:20:33 pm
wat
1062  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Lock, Upset, Bold Prediction on: November 03, 2014, 03:52:23 pm
Senate:

Lock: Gardner picks up Colorado
Upset: Roberts winning
Bold: Peters outpolls Durbin (yes I know PPP said this but it'd be an upset towards conventional wisdom)

House:

Lock: Peters (CA) survives.
Upset: Hays and Graham both win.
Bold: Casey comes closer to victory than Rahall.
1063  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Lock/Upset/Bold Prediction on: November 03, 2014, 03:47:11 pm
Lock: Brownback loses
Upset: Synder loses to Schauer
Bold: Ricketts and Fallin get a scare, like win with margins under 10 points.
1064  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Something you don't like (anything at all) about the previous poster on: November 03, 2014, 06:12:01 am
Too moderate hero.
1065  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Official Final Prediction Thread on: November 03, 2014, 02:22:40 am
My current predictions:



Made that about a week ago, so some margins might have changed (<40% seems pessimistic for Rounds, but that's the only one that doesn't look plausible, and I think Iowa and Colorado should have comparable percentages), but I'll stick with it for the winners.

Roberts the only underdog I have winning, my logic is that I think there'll be a few people who err on the side of caution with Orman (they think he'll be a liberal Democrat or something) and given how close the race is there, that will matter IMO.

Not sure what the surprise of the night will be, a lot of races have had adequate polls and the rest have sacrificial lambs/are in really safe states.
1066  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Election Day Schedule and Sources of Returns? on: November 03, 2014, 02:10:53 am
Times in EST (US).

0700: Sleep
1600: Wake up, prepare myself for the day
1700: Frantically check Atlas, and when it goes down, IRC and maybe some other websites.
2030: Leave for lunch/psychologist.
2315: Return back home. Either rage or gloat (more likely the former).
0000: Remember this actually doesn't affect my country, so remove emotional attachment.

Also screw you for moving your clocks back. This schedule would've worked so much better if you had daylight savings (or we didn't).
1067  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: November 03, 2014, 01:35:27 am
I think Joe just won the Atlas.
1068  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you a young white male? on: November 03, 2014, 01:23:41 am
Aye.
1069  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: November 03, 2014, 01:17:19 am
Sounds pretty Republican to me.

Also WHOOOOSHHH at Branden Corderio's stating angus's guy isn't interested in politics. Tongue

Age: 22
Gender: Male
Race: White
Occupation: Some position in the Navy
Income: $40,000
Martial status: Single
Religion: Atheist
Location: Yuba City, California

FTR, this is based off someone I know (well, if this was 25 years ago Tongue), so guess well, my friends.
1070  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which is more likely? on: November 02, 2014, 04:42:22 pm
Probably that they exceed expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if R's picked up 8 seats.
My prediction actually has the R's gaining 8 seats lol. Will probably mean you keep the Senate if you win the Presidential election in 2016.
1071  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which is more likely? on: November 02, 2014, 03:36:08 pm
My predictions are rather pessimistic for the Senate (less so for the House, though that's because of a lack of reliable polling), so Scenario 2 for mine.
1072  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of KCDem on: November 02, 2014, 06:50:53 am
Lamer version of krazen, although in his defence he doesn't have anywhere near the same amount of sociopathic hate that krazen does of teacher equivalents.
1073  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Cool interactive demographic/geography map of who benefits from Obamacare on: November 02, 2014, 01:46:19 am
Why do so many people remain uninsured in Maine?
The governor there is a Tea Partier.
1074  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Something you don't like (anything at all) about the previous poster on: November 01, 2014, 08:15:52 pm
He is apparently a Pearl Harbor truther.
OK, what?HuhHuhHuhHuhHuh

SKIP
1075  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the political views of the previous hypothetical person - Int'l Edition on: November 01, 2014, 07:27:41 pm
Sounds like a moderate supporter of the Liberal Party

I guess I defy political stereotypes, then Tongue

Age: 54
Gender: Male
Race: White
Occupation: Programme/Project Planner
Income: 80,000 (US$127,852)
Family: Married, 2 adult children
Religion: Church of England (only goes to church for Christmas, weddings and funerals though)
Location: Monmouthshire, Wales

Sounds like a Tory, with the chance of being a Liberal through ancestral roots.

Age: 26
Gender: Male
Race: White
Occupation: Unemployed, used to deal drugs.
Family: Unmarried
Religion: Atheist
Location: Brisbane, Queensland
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