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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1051  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: June 08, 2014, 09:34:19 pm
Don't see how he isn't a solid Democrat.

Age: 31
Sex: Male
Race: Hispanic
Personal income: $55,000
Occupation: Real estate manager
Religion: Catholic
Martial status: Single
Location: Miami, FL.
1052  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Hypothetical 2016 Democratic Primary on: June 07, 2014, 11:07:59 pm
Protest vote for Sanders or Schweitzer (whoever's the stronger) since Hillary's inevitable either way and voting for a progressive candidate will shift the Overton window to the left.
This, for mine.
1053  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which candidate would have an uninspiring GOTV/ground game in the GE? on: June 07, 2014, 10:09:13 pm
Cuomo. No appeal to the base.
1054  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Rating the Gubernatorial Races on: June 07, 2014, 10:08:19 pm
Similar to my Senate Ratings which ranks all the races this year from most likely to be picked up to least likely.

1. Pennsylvania (R-Corbett) - dead meat, quite frankly. It'll take a miracle for him to come back.
2. Arkansas (D-Open) - while Pryor looks to be rebounding, Ross seems to be fading away quite significantly. Will be hard for the Dems to keep the seat here, though a comeback isn't out of the question.
3. Maine (R-LePage) - his numbers are actually trending up in recent polls. More Republicans of the moderate kind seem to be coming back to him, as Cutler's numbers seem to be increasingly be restricted to Democrats. We'll wait and see if that's the case on election day, and the firms are still saying Michaud is ahead.
4. Florida (R-Scott) - the FDP looks to be screwing up....again. Scott's numbers have been pretty consistently trending up and it looks like it might not be long before Scott is clearly favoured.
5. Illinois (D-Quinn) - no doubt Quinn is in sh**t, but Illinois is still very blue which could save him. Rauner being nominated is probably a positive for Quinn, as he is probably prone to being interpreted as too right-wing for Illinois.
6. Connecticut (D-Malloy) - Malloy has never had a lot of goodwill from the state's voters, and Connecticut is pretty friendly to moderate Reps, which Foley probably counts as. In Malloy's favour is that Connecticut is still quite blue, and Malloy was able to knock off Foley in 2010.
7. Wisconsin (R-Walker) - polls are all over the place. While it's pretty clear that Burke can get 45% of the vote without trying, it'll be interesting to see whether she can get to 50%.
8. Hawaii (D-Abercrombie) - as blue as Hawaii is, Abercrombie has long been unpopular and the Reps do have a serious candidate. The one published poll has Abercrombie behind his opponent. He does however have a strong primary challenger, and it is likely that all that it would take to hold the Governor's house is a Generic D.
9. Michigan (R-Snyder) - definitely Schauer is struggling, and this race is consolidating for Team R. If Schauer can campaign well he might bounce back, otherwise Snyder probably wins comfortably.
10. Georgia (R-Deal) - Deal isn't the sort of guy that would be well-liked by anyone. He holds the advantage, but Carter can knock him off with a strong campaign and Deal will probably make a few mis-steps during the campaign.
11. Iowa (R-Branstad) - Branstad seems to be losing momentum and now has some ethics issues clouding him. The good news for him is that the opposition
12. Kansas (R-Brownback) - yes Kansas is still quite red, and yes Davis is probably too left-wing for Kansas as a whole. But Brownback has shocking approvals and PPP and SurveyUSA reckon he's behind. Ouch.
13. Colorado (D-Hickenlooper) - Hickenlooper's position is stronger than it was last year, and his opposition is of weak quality. No doubt Hickenlooper has been controversial, but it doesn't look like it'll be enough to lose.
14. Ohio (R-Kasich) - most polls are clearly trending in Kasich's direction and Fitzgerald is struggling. At this stage, Kasich is the clear favourite.
15. Arizona (R-Open) - still very early days, but in Arizona the Republican deserves favouritism. Very hard to see how a Dem wins in a midterm.
16. Massachusetts (D-Open) - new polls are coming out showing Coakley ahead by only single-digits. Now these polls have high undecideds and are from lesser-known firms, but still the chances of Coakley screwing it up again is not out of the question.
17. New Mexico (R-Martinez) - King does have name recognition, and some polls has shown this as quasi-competitive, but his time as the AG has been controversial and Martinez has done a good job as Governor. Only problem is, how blue is New Mexico these days?
18. South Carolina (R-Haley) - Shaheen did push Haley in 2010, but Haley has been inoffensive as Governor and South Carolina is still pretty red. Ultimately it's Haley's race to lose.
19. Texas (R-Open) - it's still Texas. Abbott's leads over Davis are pretty robust too, and let's not forget Davis's main shtick is being pro-choice.
20. Rhode Island (I-Open) - treating Chafee as a Democrat for the purposes of this exercise. While Rhode Island can elect Republicans in the right circumstances, whoever the Dems nominate should be a clear favourite. Most published polling seems to relate to the primary rather than the general election race.
21. Nebraska (R-Open) - Ricketts lead was surprisingly narrow in the one published poll here. His only experience was losing heavily to Ben Nelson. Sleeper race?
22. Maryland (D-Open) - I don't usually write-off races without incumbents early, particularly at the gubernatorial level, but it would be hard work to win this one.
23. New Hampshire (D-Hassan) - Hassan's leads are robust and she doesn't have A-tier opposition.
24. Nevada (R-Sandoval) - Sandoval has been good as Nevada's governor and the Dems didn't recruit good opposition.
25. Minnesota (D-Dayton) - again, robust polling leads, lack of compelling opposition, strong record as governor.
26. Oregon (D-Kitzhaber) - Richardson is simply not a compelling candidate.
27. Idaho (R-Otter) - Otter's lead is actually quite small, but a lot of that might be down to right-wingers thinking Otter isn't conservative enough.
28. Alabama (R-Bentley) - Griffith is a turncoat. And it's Alabama. Bentley has been poor as governor, but will Alabamans see it? Unlikely.
29. Vermont (D-Shumlin) - it's Vermont. Only risk is the Progressive party gaining traction.
30. New York (D-Cuomo) - this could be interesting to watch as Cuomo's main opposition seems to be from the left (WFP apparently nabbed 24% in the latest poll), but it's unlikely that a third party will find someone compelling enough to seriously endanger Cuomo.
31. California (D-Brown) - Brown got over 50% in the jungle primary. At least Tim Donnelly didn't get the nomination.
32. Oklahoma (R-Fallin) - Fallin's basically governed as expected, and she has little opposition.
33. Alaska (R-Parnell) - has pretty robust polling leads, and Alaska is still pretty red.
34. Tennessee (R-Haslam) - Haslam is popular and won big in 2010.
35. South Dakota (R-Daugaard) - Daugaard is popular.
36. Wyoming (R-Mead) - it's Wyoming.
1055  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What Party Would the Above Politician Be In if He/She Were Alive Today? on: June 06, 2014, 10:46:24 pm
The fact that he joined the then Liberals probably suggests a Coalition, though his government wasn't particularly conservative.....one of the few tough ones for Australia.

On a similar note, William Lyne
1056  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Describe the likely political views of the previous hypothetical person on: June 06, 2014, 09:45:22 pm
Probably not very political. Gun to my head, probably somewhat socially conservative and lean Republican.

Age: 52
Sex: Male
Race: White
Personal income: $45,000
Occupation: Factory worker
Religion: "Christian", non-practicing
Martial status: Married, 3 children
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
1057  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could GOP criticism of Clinton's infedility backfire? on: June 06, 2014, 09:34:06 pm
What Bushie said.

At best it's another Benghazi.
1058  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Rasmussen: Ernst (R) now leads Braley (D) by 1 on: June 06, 2014, 09:30:51 pm
Bounce and Rassy. I'll wait until thinking this is competitive.
1059  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How many Senate seats will Chris McDaniel cost the GOP in November? on: June 06, 2014, 09:30:01 pm
I don't see how it'll impact any seats bar his own. And even he probably won't be enough to cost them the seat.
1060  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Louisiana gubernatorial election, 1991 on: June 06, 2014, 09:28:18 pm
Lizard (normal)
1061  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: How would you deal with this waste of oxygen? on: June 06, 2014, 09:27:31 pm
Driving ban, mandated counselling/therapy, fines/prison.
1062  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac, May-June 2014: Hillary leads Christie by the MOE, others by 10%+ on: June 05, 2014, 07:16:36 am
Why are PAns still riding the Christie-train (that has already derailed) ?
Probably a fair few like what he's done as governor and are willing to look past his scandals.
1063  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which of These Social Classes Do You Consider Yourself a Part Of? on: June 04, 2014, 01:21:11 am
I'd say Upper Middle, but Middle could also apply. That is my parents though.
1064  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Paulville, TX on: June 03, 2014, 04:53:37 pm
LOL (normal)
1065  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which Senate seats do you think will be won by a Democratic? on: June 02, 2014, 10:35:27 pm
Voted Michigan, Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina. Others bar maybe Louisiana (which has that weird run-off system that makes it a lottery) will be close.
1066  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Tom Coburn on: June 02, 2014, 04:26:11 pm
Definitely lean HP, but I do have respect for the man, which is more than what I can say for 90% of his party.
1067  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Butch Otter on: May 31, 2014, 09:37:23 pm
Lean HP, though I do admire the fact that he voted against the Patriot Act.
1068  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: do you actually care about the world cup? on: May 31, 2014, 06:09:20 pm
I guess, though I'm not generally thrilled by soccer.
1069  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: do you prefer listening to stuff on an ipod or smartphone? on: May 30, 2014, 10:20:29 pm
iPhone, so that's kinda the best of both worlds.
1070  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Neil Abercrombie on: May 30, 2014, 10:17:55 pm
Don't really know enough about him. Lean FF for standing up to the Hawaiian political establishment, though.
1071  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of TX Conservative Dem on: May 30, 2014, 12:45:03 am
Oh . That post was gold.
1072  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-Rasmussen: Cotton (R) up 4 on: May 29, 2014, 10:00:18 pm
Rassmussen has been utter crap this year. Just can't get any kind of lean or reliability of their polls.
1073  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Nathan Deal on: May 29, 2014, 03:30:02 am
I think the only real question regarding this poll series is if any Republican governor will get a net positive score or if any Democrat will get a net negative.
Cuomo and McAuffile.
1074  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which corporate action is worse? on: May 28, 2014, 05:45:40 pm
Option 2 (protest vote)
1075  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Nathan Deal on: May 28, 2014, 08:06:13 am
Corrupt theocrat.
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