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1051  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Republican and Democratic US Senate Streaks on: December 14, 2014, 12:13:54 am
What are the longest streaks by Senate seat? Landrieu's has been Democratic since reconstruction.

Vermont's class 1 was Republican from 1856-2001, so that's probably it for republicans. I'm sure you can find similar things with Maine.

For democrats, its seems to be that Georgia's class 2 takes the cake, as it was democratic from 1852-2002. For most states in the south, there's a common pattern. Democratic at first, some Republicans during reconstruction, and then Democratic pretty all the way until post-Civil Rights. Georgia's class 2 is the only one I've seen where it didn't elect at least one Republican during reconstruction. 

Do you know the context there? How did they manage to elect Democrats during Reconstruction?

I don't know. It was at least 40% black at the time so I can't imagine a Republican not getting elected.
That was pre-17th Amendment, so there was still a good chance that the state legislature was Democrat controlled.
1052  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the GOP had 'smoked-filled room' who would they pick? on: December 13, 2014, 05:36:38 pm
Yeah Bush or Romney most likely.
1053  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Chelsea Manning vs Julian Assange vs Edward Snowden on: December 13, 2014, 04:51:25 pm
Snowden is the best. He didn't harm anyone. Manning might've endangered people's lives and Assange is both a rapist and egotistical lunatic.
Again, is there any actual evidence of this?
He's been charged with having sex while damaging a condom/not using a condom without consent. So yes.
1054  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of George Reid on: December 13, 2014, 03:35:30 am
Another day left.
1055  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Chelsea Manning vs Julian Assange vs Edward Snowden on: December 13, 2014, 03:32:57 am
Manning is obviously the best, and even from the perspective that this sort of information shouldn't be made public she's still probably the least bad. Assange is the literal Worst from almost any imaginable perspective.

I'll never for the life of me understand why oakvale feels the way he does about this.
oakvale doesn't have a real ideology beyond going against what he feels is the popular consensus.
1056  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Let's talk about WillipsBrighton on: December 13, 2014, 03:30:46 am
I hate to channel BRTD, but why is opebo banned when this clown is still running around?
1057  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite Abbott on: December 12, 2014, 08:31:15 pm
One affects me, the other does.

Voted Greg.
1058  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: December 2014 At-large Senate Election on: December 12, 2014, 06:09:20 pm
[ 2 ] Bacon King of Oceania
The People's Party

[ 5 ] Cris of Kansas
Federalist Party

[ 6 ] JohanusCalvinusLibertas of Indiana
Federalist Party

[ 3 ] Lief of Vermont
Labor Party

[ 1 ] Polnut of Massachusetts
The People's Party

[ 4 ] SomebodyWhoExists of Quebec
Labor Party
1059  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Mideast Voting Booth: Protecting People From Explosives Amendment on: December 12, 2014, 06:08:50 pm
Aye
1060  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: December 11, 2014, 06:58:08 pm
The Winfield legacy lives on.
1061  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato: Initial 2016 Senate ratings on: December 11, 2014, 02:06:42 am
He is at 38/28. He is more anonymous and unknown than well-liked.
And nobody said anything about a 100% possibility of losing. That's a strawman you created.
LOL, Illinois is not a tossup. Maybe only likely D.

He is hinting that Safe D, which means an (effectively) 100% chance of a democratic victory, is an arguable rating two years out.

And I said fairly popular for a reason.
Well if Safe D = 100% chance of victory then no seats should be Safe D/R.
1062  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sabato: Initial 2016 Senate ratings on: December 11, 2014, 01:52:39 am
LOL, Illinois is not a tossup. Maybe only likely D.
Uh, there's a republican incumbent there. He's fairly popular too. Democrats have a strong bench, but they need someone to actually RUN.

Since when being anonymous means you're popular?

He's at +10 in favorability. Yes, +10. That's very good for an Illinois Republican. Furthermore, the suggestion that you can argue two years out that ANY incumbent has a 100% chance of losing as ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ (he said 'maybe only likely D' hinting that he thinks Safe D is arguably a correct rating) says in relation to Kirk is just ludricious. We don't know who's going to challenge Kirk yet. Sure, Madigan will defeat him, but Kirk has a solid shot at surviving against one of the democratic U.S. house members, and probably starts out with a slight advantage against outgoing Lt. Gov. Shelia Simon.

In which poll is he at +10?
And even so, tell that to Lincoln Chafee and Scott Brown.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/11/2016-senator-approvals.html

Neither Chafee nor Brown had a 100% chance of losing two years before the election. In fact, Brown didn't lose his lead in the polls until the last few months of the campaign.
Only 2/3rds of the Illinois population have an opinion of him? Odd.
1063  General Politics / Individual Politics / Opinion of George Reid on: December 11, 2014, 12:04:52 am
Edmund Barton: 72.7%
Alfred Deakin: 57.1%
Chris Watson: 60%

#4: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Reid_(Australian_politician)

Hard to call. That said, I wouldn't be a supporter of the Free Traders despite generally being not in favour of tarriffs.
1064  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Do you buy into any conspiracy theories? on: December 09, 2014, 09:44:22 pm
Most assassinations aren't acted alone. Whether that counts as a conspiracy theory though is different.

And I kinda agree with X's point over Bushie trolling us with the Update.
1065  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you rather your daughter date a cop or a stoner? on: December 09, 2014, 06:58:11 pm
Depends on the expected duration of the relationship. A friendly cop is more useful than a friendly stoner, but a vindicative cop is more dangerous than a vindictive stoner.
This is the correct answer.

So my vote depends on what country we're talking about.
1066  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Chris Watson on: December 09, 2014, 06:56:42 pm
One day left!
1067  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018: DOAs and Retirements on: December 09, 2014, 03:37:09 am
As I said in another board, I would not be surprised if Hillary won with a Republican Senate majority, and even a rather secure one like 53 or 54 seats.

That's extremely unlikely. The same factors working against red state Democrats (increased polarization, decrease in split ticket voting) will also work against blue state Republicans. If Republicans break even in the Senate, Hillary almost certainly lost. You can make the argument that the Republican incumbents are unnaturally strong in 2016 (I don't see the logic behind it since most of them haven't been tested statewide outside of a low turnout Republican wave, but I digress), but people were saying the exact same thing about Pryor and Landrieu in 2013/2014. How did that turn out again?
That's not really the case unlike 2014. Only Kirk's state is blue, I guess Johnson, Ayotte and Toomey have a blue tinge but they wouldn't be really defying partisan gravity to win. Rest are either genuine swing states, or worse.
1068  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Spain General Discussion on: December 09, 2014, 02:54:50 am
How is Podemos polling first without obliterating the PSOE? Whowere Podemos supporters backing before?
Looks like Podemos have nabbed the votes of the minor left-wing parties.
1069  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016) on: December 09, 2014, 02:49:06 am
In fact the Liberals did much better on the prepolls, oddly. They now have the surprising edge.
1070  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: December 09, 2014, 02:43:34 am
Nothing compares to Sinn Fein, I guess.
1071  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: US with Australian parties on: December 08, 2014, 07:22:51 am
Would states like Delaware and Connecticut be more Malcolm Turnbull Liberals, rather than Abbott fans?

I wonder where PUP would be strongest Cheesy
You could probably say that, yeah. Particularly Connecticut (Delaware's rural areas would be more conservative than the ones in Connecticut).

Not sure where the PUP would be strongest. Gut feel is one of the Southern states.
1072  General Politics / Individual Politics / Opinion of Chris Watson on: December 07, 2014, 08:08:09 pm
Edmund Barton: 72.7%
Alfred Deakin: 57.1%


#3: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Watson

Tough, for me. I like how he allowed the ALP to become a significant political force well before any other country, but he didn't really do much as ALP leader and loses brownie points for the conscription debate. I guess FF?
1073  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Hillary pick Sherrod Brown for VP? on: December 07, 2014, 07:39:28 pm
On paper, yes, but then again, giving up that Senate seat....
1074  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Huey Lewis and the News on: December 07, 2014, 07:13:25 pm
My mum has this weirdest thing for Huey Lewis (as in, despite being really atypical of the music she actually likes she really likes them). I don't get it though.
1075  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you ever eat at a Braum's? on: December 06, 2014, 10:03:20 pm
I'd go at least once if for whatever reason I was in Oklahoma out of curiosity.
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