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1051  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 08:43:32 pm
If the ALP ends up forming government, would they be the smallest opposition to win an election in Australian history?

This is all still very surreal. I'm still pausing to remind myself it actually happened. By far the most extraordinary election result I've ever witnessed in my (short) life.
Afaik it's the smallest opposition full stop (though maybe there was something odd around the turn of the century). So yes most likely.
1052  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which European Green/Hard Left/Handwringing Liberal party is the most pathetic? on: January 31, 2015, 06:10:22 pm
Given how well the SNP is polling in Scotland, it seems surprising that Plaid hasn't caught fire. Then again, maybe Welsh sucessionism isn't that popular of a position....
1053  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 05:56:41 pm
People more well-versed in Australian politics than I: What are the chances Abbott's head rolls after this? He really is an albatross on their party. Also, who would take his place as PM? Turnbull? Bishop?
He is toast. As for his replacement, probably a three horse race between Turnbull, Bishop or Morrison. Think Bishop is the favourite.
1054  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 05:54:00 pm
Heh, Baird won't go close to losing. He isn't an idiot like say Newman or Abbott, and Labor's still a bit on the nose here.
1055  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 07:55:22 am
"Is he going to be challenged?"

Any answer other than 'No' is politicianese for 'Yes'. She went with "Let's see what he says on Monday."
Yeah, that's one of the most blantant bits of spin I've heard.
1056  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: January 31, 2015, 07:46:37 am
https://twitter.com/vanonselenp

Some stunning tweets here.
1057  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 07:40:41 am
This is arguably the third election Abbott has cost the Coalition. He needs to go.

That said, given the nature of Pretince's electorate, she'll be one of the first to sour on him.
1058  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 07:13:32 am
Leanne Enoch has become the first Aboriginal woman elected to Parliament, winning back the safe Labor seat of Algester.

Every state seat that falls in Wyatt Roy's federal electorate has been lost save one which is being held by 1%. Hopefully that little sh**tstain goes down soon.

I would most like to see Roy and Gambaro lose in the federal election. Might be too much to ask for though.
Assuming polls stay what they are (or even narrow a bit) they'll lose. A 50/50 should doom Gambaro at least, Roy might be tougher but he'll be in trouble.
1059  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 06:45:40 am
Labor to either win or go very close to victory. You heard it here first.
I will now accept my accolades.
1060  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 05:11:29 am
William Bowe saying Labor on 45 now.

Given there's 89 seats, you can work out the significance of this.
1061  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: January 31, 2015, 05:06:13 am
57/43 according to PVO.

RIP Abbott.
1062  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 04:53:21 am
ABC has Labor one off of a majority...
Down to 43. But still the LNP are very likely gone.
1063  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 04:52:18 am
The loser seems to be the crossbench.

Looks like only Knuth and Katter will win for KAP, and Nicklin will hold for the independents.


Hmm that's only 4 to 3. Pauline still has an outside chance I guess, perhaps Foley as well.

And the obvious losers, regardless of if Labor can get a majority are the LNP.
1064  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016) on: January 31, 2015, 04:42:26 am
Labor's conceded now apparently. Oh well, we still have a majority in South Australia anyway and Queensland is looking good.
1065  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 31, 2015, 04:17:58 am
Still early days, but I think Labor might win this.
1066  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Hardest one yet: Describe a Wallace '68/McGovern '72 voter on: January 30, 2015, 09:50:41 pm
I guess there might be the odd populist Dem who didn't like Republicans but agreed with Wallace's style more? This would be more common had say Muskie or some other Dem won the nomination though. In particular there wouldn't be that many Wallace voters who voted for Ford over Carter, for example.
1067  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenge: Describe a Kerry 2004/Mccain2008 Voter on: January 30, 2015, 09:48:15 pm
Ancestral Dems from the South/Appalachia put off by Obama's 'exoticness'/perceived cultural liberalism (i.e. racism). (this one would be the most common by far)

General racists (though this would be very small)

The odd home state effect for McCain/Kerry - i.e. people who usually vote for the other party but liked them as Senators.

Pro-military types who saw Kerry and McCain as honourable citizens but didn't think Obama and Bush served their country well, perhaps?

The odd PUMA (different from #1 slightly).
1068  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 09:28:21 pm
I'll say 51.5/48.5. LNP to hang on to their majority, but it won't be 100% clear by the end of the night.
1069  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016) on: January 30, 2015, 08:38:52 pm
I'd probably say Liberals 52-48, the seat is more blue-ribbon than Fisher. If the Liberals lose this......South Australia may finally have a Labor government in terms of time in government to rival the Playfair's and the JBP's of the world.
1070  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in the Florida Panhandle or Northwest Arkansas? on: January 30, 2015, 07:09:48 pm
Panhandle at least has beaches.
1071  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 06:59:35 am
Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

Quote
The Gold Coast Bulletin reports that a ReachTEL poll of 1115 voters on the Gold Coast, conducted at an unspecified time this week, had the LNP on 48.3% and Labor on 29.4%, compared with 58.3% and 23.7% at the 2012 election. The paper also reports that internal polling by both Labor and Palmer United suggest Albert, with a margin of 11.9%, is “in play”, and that Labor is “hopeful of a win” in Broadwater, margin 11.3%.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/01/30/queensland-election-minus-one-day/

I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooropilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.
1072  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: 2016 Democratic Primary: BushOklahoma vs. WalterMitty on: January 30, 2015, 05:11:00 am
Walter's not that much different from certain elements of the party, unfortunately.
1073  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Petition for leniency on Hamilton/"Napoleon" on: January 30, 2015, 03:38:10 am
I mean, at this point the whole sock policy just seems like a make-work project so that the moderators/administrators have something to do. It's pretty bizarre how up in arms the Regime gets about socking. Lifetime bans and all that just for making a second account.

That's never actually happened though.  We've doled out temporary bans to people who made second accounts a bunch of times, but only permabanned second accounts of people who were already permabanned in the first place.
Not true - Simfan and R2D2 were initially permabanned for making sock accounts despite being unbanned at the time.
1074  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which European Green/Hard Left/Handwringing Liberal party is the most pathetic? on: January 30, 2015, 02:23:12 am
KKE, Lib Dems, etc.
1075  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 30, 2015, 01:11:05 am
I don't think the GST thing is that huge of a gaffe.

That said, I think most people should know that it's 10%. I can name the rate on top of my head, then again given I'm a training accountant it would be bad if they didn't Tongue
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