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November 24, 2014, 10:19:21 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1051  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The New Irony Ore Mine on: February 06, 2014, 07:57:57 pm
Good. The fact that one of the schools pupils has appeared in a pornograhpic video is as bad for the school's reputation as if said kid was caught smoking during school hours just outside the school.

Oh my God just shut the hell up.
He's right you know.
1052  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of t_host1 on: February 06, 2014, 07:50:18 pm
Our finest visionary.
1053  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: SC-Wenzel: R Primary: Graham under 50 but up big on: February 06, 2014, 07:02:40 pm
Does he need 40% or 50% to avoid a run off?  I always get the Carolinas confused. 
50% I think.
1054  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy Birthday Van Der Blub on: February 06, 2014, 07:01:25 pm
The forum's GOAT.
1055  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Hick (D) recovering on: February 06, 2014, 06:41:40 pm
Still not fully convinced Hickenlooper is out of trouble. Still not above 50%.
1056  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Quinnipiac: Udall already sees GOP opponents in his rear-view mirror on: February 06, 2014, 06:40:38 pm
Odd that Qunnipiac had Hickenlooper looking decent but Udall in a sh**t load of trouble.
1057  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who has a >50% chance of beating Hillary? on: February 06, 2014, 06:41:30 am
Right now? None of them.
1058  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Alternate Two-Way 1992 US Presidential Election on: February 06, 2014, 01:48:09 am
Perot, purely because I'd like to see a third-partier in the White House.
1059  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you respect Hillary for staying with Bill? on: February 05, 2014, 06:46:28 pm
1060  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Alaska (PPP): Clinton leads Palin, trails other Republicans on: February 05, 2014, 06:35:15 pm
Lmao palin.
1061  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: UK papers claim Bubba-Elizabeth Hurley affair on: February 05, 2014, 06:34:29 pm
Hero.
1062  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Alternate State Capitals: Alabama Run-Off on: February 05, 2014, 05:51:08 am
Birmingham. Most important city and in a good geographic location for Alabama.
1063  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Brian Schweitzer on: February 04, 2014, 10:28:40 pm
Ff (not a right-wing democrat)
1064  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Ban Van Der Blub on: February 04, 2014, 08:11:17 pm
Counter petition to ban everyone who signed this atrocity.
1065  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Pryor retiring. on: February 04, 2014, 04:42:47 pm
Good work.
1066  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of ">implying" statements aka Implying Implications on: February 04, 2014, 03:34:51 pm
I find it pretty awful, personally.

Rich coming from someone who sees nothing wrong with sweatshops.


Was that a parody on purpose?
1067  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: TNF and Alison Lundergan Grimes on: February 04, 2014, 03:33:14 pm
1068  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Sen. Warner is no fan of Bieber on: February 04, 2014, 03:28:50 pm
WAG.
1069  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Coca-Cola makes cute ad, racist far-right idiots lose their [inks] on: February 04, 2014, 06:59:40 am
Voted #1, but in hindsight blaming Obama's too predictable, and #7 is more lol.
1070  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Flo's and ElectionGuy's Maps on: February 04, 2014, 06:46:48 am
Pennsylvania:



1 (blue - South Philadelphia): 87% Obama. 53% black. Safe D.
2 (green - Philadelphia): 89% Obama. 55% black. Safe D.
3 (purple - Erie): 54% Obama. Given that this is in the more ancestrally Democratic half of Pennsylvania, Likely D.
4 (red - West Pittsburgh suburbs): 52% McCain. Tricky to say. It's probably too far removed for Jason Altmire to comeback here (if it isn't, then it's a Tossup and probably titling D), and the trends here probably make it hard for us to win. Tilts R, I guess.
5 (gold - Mid-Northern T): 51% McCain. Amazed it was this marginal. Did Chris Carney represent much of this area in the old PA-10? If so, Toss-up. Probably Lean/Likely R otherwise.
6 (dark green - Berks): 54% Obama. Jim Gerlach's stomping ground. He'd still hold the seat now, but given he's retiring it's Tilts D going forward.
7 (grey - Chester City/Delaware County): 63% Obama. Safe D even taking into account how moderate Philly Republicans are.
8 (violet (?) - Bucks): 51% Obama. Likely R for Fitzpatrick, Tossup if Open.
9 (teal - South Western T): 63% McCain. A whopping 97% white. Safe R.
10 (pink - NE Pennsylvania): 58% McCain. Safe R.
11 (lime green - Scranton/Wilkes-Barre): 60% Obama. Safe D.
12 (some lightish blue - SWPA/coal country): 52% McCain. Arguably the most fertile ground for a Blue Dog/pro-coal Dem, Gore probably won here and Kerry might have too (so Obama was a uniquely bad fit for here). It is trending right pretty hard though, so Tossup.
13 (Montgomery): 58% Obama. Would ordinarily be safe, but might be close in 2010 like circumstances. Likely D.
14 (khaki - Pittsburgh): 73% Obama. Safe D.
15 (orange): 52% Obama. Tossup normally, but I guess Charlie Dent runs here, in which case it's Likely R for him.
16 (light green - Amish Country): 59% McCain. Safe R.
17 (dark purple - Harrisburg): 50% McCain, he won by about 2,000 votes. Probably Likely R in neutral circumstances, but the district seems a really good fit for Tim Holden, so the district would probably lean in his favour if he does come back.
18 (yellow - Westmoreland): 59% McCain. This part of SWPA probably wouldn't vote for a Blue Dog these days. Safe R, particularly if Tim Murphy runs here.
19 (Philadelphia): 85% Obama. 41% white (but still plurality white). Safe D.
20 (North Philadelphia): 60% Obama. The most white and least Democratic seat in Pittsburgh proper. Safe D, might be close in a wave I guess but even then....
21 (maroon): 57% Obama. Lean/Likely D, but Pat Meehan would probably prefer here than the 7th. He would make it close, but even with him it probably would still Tilt D.
22 (dark brown - Chester County/Lancaster): 54% Obama. Tossup given what sort of candidate each side would run in Philly suburbia.
23 (pale blue - Lehigh Valley): 57% Obama. Probably Likely D given that I doubt Dent runs here when he's got a more viable seat available in the shape of the 15th.
24 (very dark purple): 56% McCain. Safe R.
25 (East Pittsburgh suburbs/Penn Hills): 54% Obama. Close-ish on paper, but any Obama district in this part of the country is Safe D.
26 (North Pittsburgh suburbs): 55% McCain. Would be Safe R generally, but this district is similar to Jason Altmire's old district, so for him it could well be a Tossup.
27 (pale-ish green): 56% McCain. Safe R. Like the 9th it is 97% white.
28 (South Eastern T/York): 58% McCain. Safe R.

Safe D: 8
Likely D: 3
Lean/Likely D: 1* 
Tilt D: 1*
Tossup: 4*
Tilt R: 1*
Lean/Likely R: 1*
Likely R: 1*
Safe R: 8*

Again, my footnote for North Carolina applies for Pennsylvania.
1071  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Flo's and ElectionGuy's Maps on: February 04, 2014, 03:12:46 am


1 (blue): 62% Obama. 50% black. Safe D.
2 (green): 59% McCain. Safe R.
3 (purple): 50/49 Obama. Amazingly, this district has zero deviation. Although only narrowly Obama (and probably won by Romney), it would probably be Lean D congressionally. Perdue and Hagan probably won this district fairly comfortably. Would think that Walter B. Jones runs in NC-18.
4 (red - Durham/Chapel Hill): 73% Obama. Safe D.
5 (yellow): 63% McCain. Safe R.
6 (dark green): 59% McCain. Safe R.
7 (grey): 53% McCain. Similar to Mike McIntyre's district. Lean R without him (this area is pretty Dem downballot), but you'd think it'd be fairly safe assuming he doesn't retire like IRL.
8 (violet (?) - Fayetteville): 59% Obama. Minority-majority, 49% white. Safe D.
9 (teal - South Charlotte/suburbs): 54% McCain. Trending D, but still Safe R.
10 (pink - West Charlotte suburbs): 61% McCain. Safe R.
11 (light green - Asheville): 51% Obama. Given this sort of area would be pretty damn ancestrally Dem, Tilts D. If Shuler came back, it would be Safe D. Rogers probably even won here.
12 (North Charlotte): 74% Obama. 46% white (though that is still a plurality). Safe D.
13 (North Raleigh): 53% Obama. Tilts D, and it's only getting more D.
14 (South Raleigh): 58% Obama. Likely D.
15 (orange - Greensboro/High Point): 61% Obama. Safe D.
16 (lime green): 56% McCain. Safe R.
17 (dark purple - Winston-Salem): 50/50, McCain won by slightly over 100 votes. Lean R, but trending D.
18 (yellow): 59% McCain. Safe R.
19 (khaki): 55% McCain. Safe R, may be flippable in blue moon like situations though I guess.
20 (light pink): 67% McCain. Safe R.
21 (maroon): 59% McCain. Safe R.

Safe D: 5
Likely D: 1
Lean D: 1
Tilts D: 2
Lean R: 2*
Safe R: 10

NB: This is what I'd expect a neutral Congressional year to look like, not how it would likely vote for President as the actual election numbers give that.
1072  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: AL: Parker Griffith running as a Democrat on: February 04, 2014, 02:36:36 am
Hell no. Dude has a 95% ACU rating.
TBF, it was 56% when he was still a Democrat.
1073  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Washington on: February 04, 2014, 01:19:17 am
FS, obviously.
1074  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: AL: Parker Griffith running as a Democrat on: February 04, 2014, 12:44:14 am
LOL.

Although at least we've got a candidate.
1075  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Oklahoma Panhandle vs. Harlem, NY on: February 04, 2014, 12:20:27 am
Harlem isn't that great, but anywhere in New York is about 50,000 times better than the f[Inks]ing Panhandle.
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