Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015
on: February 13, 2015, 08:46:27 am
Assuming all seats have finished counting - here is the pendulum:
Labor seats (44)
South Brisbane 13.80%
Gladstone 11.90% vs IND
Ipswich West 7.70%
Pine Rivers 7.60%
Brisbane Central 3.20%
Barron River 3.10%
Mount Coot-tha 2.50%
Ferny Grove 0.80%
LNP seats (42)
Lockyer 0.20% vs ONP
Mount Ommaney 0.20%
Glass House 1.40%
Toowoomba North 1.60%
Hervey Bay 6.60%
Callide 6.70% vs PUP
Noosa 8.60% vs GRN
Toowoomba South 8.90%
Mermaid Beach 12.80%
Southern Downs 19.20%
Surfers Paradise 19.20%
Other seats (3)
Dalrymple (KAP) 15.00% vs LNP
Mount Isa (KAP) 15.20% vs LNP
Nicklin (Wellington) 14.90% vs LNP
Bolded indicates gains made from another party, italics indicates seats won by one party at the last election, but flipped in a by-election and were retained by the party that won the seat at the by-election.
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 49 state landslide either way. What are the last holdout states?
on: February 13, 2015, 02:39:40 am
Given that Maryland voted for a Republican governor last election, and Vermont came very close to doing so, I'd be interested to see if any Democrats have changed their mind.
Think the last holdout for Team D might be California these days.
Hawaii, which is even more exaggerated in its minority-majority identity than California, would hold out longer than California.
Hawaii is really incumbent-friendly though, perhaps down to its Asian culture. It probably would be the last holdout if the Republicans won 49 states despite not being an incumbent, but if anyone was to win a landslide of that proportion, they'd be an incumbent.
Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who will be Forum Darling if Hillary Passes/Loses?
on: February 12, 2015, 09:07:23 pm
Why the Hell do Hillary-bashers keep pretending like she's the "forum darling" when every "opinion of..." poll about her puts her approval rating on this forum much lower than it is for America at large?
Hillary is probably the only politican who's hard to have meh feelings about. Those who like her overrate her (or perhaps overcompensate because a lot of the rest of the forum don't really like her - IceSpear basically admitted as much), but in many quarters the hate towards her goes OTT.
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rank from #1 to #5 the 5 individuals most likely to be elected president in 2016
on: February 09, 2015, 01:11:46 am
1. Hillary Clinton - anyone not putting her #1 is a hack. She clearly has the clearest path to being nominated, and is at least a 50/50 chance to win the general election.
2. Chris Christie - most likely Republican to win the general election, but will he get past the primaries without severely compromising his moderate credentials?
3. Scott Walker - I'm thinking one of the Cheesemen win the primary, and unlike Paul or Cruz I think they're in the mainstream enough to be electable. Walker ahead of Ryan because I reckon he's the most likely to run, I feel Ryan would be more happy in Congress.
4. Paul Ryan - see above.
5. Jeb Bush - he gets here as he has a strong resume, a strong regional base and probably hasn't soured himself so much on the far-right as Christie has. Several could challenge this spot IMO.
Why is Chris Christie most likely to win the general?
? He has accomplished nothing as GOV, squandering an excellent opportunity to move NJ to the right. Has a bromance problem with Obama with the GOP base and Bridgegate effectively killed his chances.
That was pre-Bridgegate.