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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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826  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is your height? on: November 20, 2014, 10:07:11 pm
180cm, so in imperial terms around 5'11".
827  General Discussion / Alternative History / Maverick - the Andrew Wilson Story on: November 20, 2014, 06:32:49 am
OK some people know in the aborted Americana 3.0 attempt I created a character called Andrew Wilson. What most people don't know is that I had envisioned a character like him for quite a while before that - in the same way that he was created in Americana, as a "moderate" WASP North-Eastern Republican, but this time an establishment WASP who hated other establishment WASP's and getting along better with Dems. I will simulate the timeline in the same way Americana has been set out, but with Mr. Wilson grandfathered in.

This will be written in a narrative, almost play-like format ala Westman/Dent, and will focus on all elements of Wilson's life. And yes, he does have his controversies.

The point of divergence from real life will probably be in the 70's, around the same time D'Israeli and Dent got elected, and when Wilson will be elected.
828  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What is the marital status of your parents? on: November 20, 2014, 05:52:14 am
Have been divorced for about 15 years. It's quite common in my immediate family.
829  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Path of Least Resistance to a Democratic House on: November 19, 2014, 01:11:04 am
tbh I think the Montana/Dakota at large districts are more winnable than the Rahall/McIntyre/Barrow/Arkansas seats at this point.

Does nobody else think the southernmost New Mexico district is also relatively vulnerable? The incumbent there is kind of an idiot.
We did win it in 2008. Wouldn't rule it out.
830  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Rudy Giuliani vs. Michael Bloomberg vs. Andrew Cuomo on: November 18, 2014, 03:59:53 pm
831  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever been spanked, beaten or otherwise abused ... on: November 18, 2014, 08:00:32 am
White = ambiguous?
832  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Can you create an Obama sweep in your state? on: November 18, 2014, 02:41:12 am
Challenges: Kansas, Arizona, Nevada
Nevada's pretty simple:

Las Vegas close-up:

NV-01 (blue), 57.9% Obama, 54.4% D average
NV-02 (green), 51.0% Obama, 46.6% D average
NV-03 (purple), 54.3% Obama, 52.9% D average
NV-04 (red), 59.0% Obama, 56.7% D average

Didn't Obama sweep Nevada's current map in '08?
I think so. But someone wanted that map done. In hindsight though I probs should've split Reno/Carson City.
833  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican candidate would do best in Virginia? on: November 18, 2014, 01:23:33 am
Leaning Bush (over Paul).  Walker and Christie are tied for a distant 3rd because they would scare NOVA to death with their budget cut rhetoric.  I could see Bush taking his father's path to a narrow win: supercharged rural turnout plus winning over enough moderate minority voters to cut the Dem margins in their base areas.  Paul would be trying the Gillespie path and hoping to do a couple percent better in Fairfax. 
That sounds more like his brother's path to Virginia.

I do agree that Jeb is the best fit for Virginia.
834  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Partisan Breakdown by Senate Class on: November 18, 2014, 12:56:17 am
If Hillary is President, 2018 is going to be very rough for the Democrats in terms of Senate seats.
If her coattails are limited there's a good chance of the Pubs holding a filibuster-proof majority (though given a Democrat's President that's not really relevant).
835  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Forum Redistricting Commission on: November 17, 2014, 11:49:05 pm
Might be interested. In any case seems a good idea.
836  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever been spanked, beaten or otherwise abused ... on: November 17, 2014, 03:53:07 pm
No (didn't go to school in 1962)
837  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Forum BlackBerry Users on: November 17, 2014, 03:51:07 pm
I'm surprised they still exist.

I was too young to jump on the BlackBerry bandwagon, iPhone's became common place by the time I started looking at smartphones.
838  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Daily Kos or Mother Jones? on: November 17, 2014, 06:25:21 am
839  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Snow driving... on: November 17, 2014, 06:04:39 am
I live in Sydney. What is snow?
840  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Your Party ID Through the Years on: November 17, 2014, 12:55:58 am
1791-1824: Democratic-Republicans
1824-1828: National Republican
1828-1832: Working Men's Party
1832-1840: Democrat
1840-1848: Liberty Party
1848-1854: Free Soil
1854-1896: Republican (though likely a rather relucant member post-1876)
1896-1904: Democrat
1904-1912: Independent
1912-1916: Progressive
1916-1924: Socialist
1924-1928: Progressive
1928-1932: Socialist
1932-present: Democrat
841  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the preceding politician on: November 17, 2014, 12:40:35 am
Not a huge fan of his political work, but gets a big FF for his influence to Pakistan pre-politics.

Putin's bitch boy = HP.

842  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French election maps on: November 17, 2014, 12:30:58 am
What attracts the North (Nord) to far-right morons? I guess the coast would be because of olds, but still..

And the South (Sud) to the PS?
843  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: IMPORTANT - Midwest Recall on: November 16, 2014, 03:52:35 pm
This disturbs me.

For my Midwestern friends, vote #1 Charles Darwin.
844  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: At-Large Special Election Coverage on: November 16, 2014, 03:48:54 pm
Rules if it's a tie?
845  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Redistribution 2016 on: November 16, 2014, 03:23:38 am
They should abolish Warringah. Smiley
Abbott would just win preselection in a neighbouring district if that happened though. You have to remember that that part of Sydney has 5 uber-safe Liberal districts.
846  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Redistribution 2016 on: November 16, 2014, 01:09:55 am
Beazley is a far more important name in WA, of course, but it's probably time for an aboriginal name in WA, or to bring back Kalgoorlie, push O'Connor heavily into Forrest, Canning, and Pearce... nah, too complex.

Looking at that link and adding a bit of my own thoughts to it, it looks like the solution might be for Hasluck to extend it's northern boundary a bit into Pearce, and maybe take a small chunk out of Perth and/or Swan, and maybe even a bit of Cowan; the southern part of Hasluck becoming the core of the new seat along with pockets of Tangney, Fremantle, and a reasonable chunk of Canning; Canning taking in a bit of Brand and Forrest.

In NSW, it's hard to see where the removal should be, although Greenway/Mitchell might be candidates, even though that's part of the Sydney growth area? Maybe Bennelong? Hunter does seem like a reasonable but unfortunate choice.
I wouldn't name the new seat Beazley at this stage as the most famous one isn't dead yet. I don't know much about famous Australian figures from WA though.

For NSW, I think the growth shortfalls are on the North Coast, but removing a seat there will probably require a radical redraw of rural NSW....probably not something the AEC will have the balls to do (look at how they backed down on the Victorian redistribution back in 2010). One thing at Antony Green suggested we might see is that a Hunter-based seat and a Southern NSW-based seat will be abolished and a new rural Mid-Western seat is created in its place.
847  Forum Community / Forum Community / Opinion of the IRC Channel on: November 15, 2014, 07:51:04 pm
One of the treasures of Atlas.
848  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Tony Abbott? on: November 15, 2014, 12:35:18 am
A bigoted and mostly incompetent Prime Minister who's eroded everything liberal about the Liberal Party and who I believe will make terrible damage to the Australian centre-right for a generation.   

Tony Abbot is the perfect opposition leader. He's ruthless, opportunistic, and wickedly effective at breaking down and tearing apart his opponents, but terrible at filling the shoes of national leader once he's successfully terminated them.   
By liberal, they mean classically liberal.
Abbott isn't really a classical liberal either.
849  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Should we make voting mandatory? on: November 14, 2014, 11:43:40 pm
I'm not sure if this is the best way to deal with it, but turnout rates are embarrassingly low and need to be improved.
850  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the first-past-the-post voting system on: November 14, 2014, 09:25:31 pm
Not a fan.
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