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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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826  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Election Night - Drink of Choice? on: October 31, 2014, 04:53:33 pm
I've got sh**t on later that day, it's in the morning in my time zone and I'm not a huge drinker anyway so probs nothing.
827  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Graham: "white men who are in male-only clubs are going to do great in my pres" on: October 31, 2014, 01:55:00 am
The first sign towards acceptance is admitting your problem.
828  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Something you don't like (anything at all) about the previous poster on: October 30, 2014, 11:55:31 pm
The cakes he makes are full of crabs.
829  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Ipsos: Deadlocked on: October 30, 2014, 11:19:34 pm
But yes, I'm still waiting for PPP.
830  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA-Ipsos: Deadlocked on: October 30, 2014, 11:18:35 pm
How good is Ipsos? I'll wait for another (decent) pollster to confirm this.
According to Fairfax (Australian newspaper who are now hiring Ipsos for Australian polling - Ipsos are an international firm rather than just an American one), "Ipsosí 2008 US presidential poll was regarded as the most accurate of the 22 covering the election that brought Barack Obama to power".

So you can't completely toss it in the junk.
831  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is KCDem an election troll? on: October 30, 2014, 11:07:18 pm
Probably, but I suspect he may come back, and from memory DrScholl's been at least posting on other boards despite being just as big of a hack.
832  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Early voting, absentee requests & statistics on: October 30, 2014, 09:53:59 pm
Those numbers don't look pretty for us.
833  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Florida? on: October 30, 2014, 09:32:48 pm
Barring the night being 2010-esque, Crist will win.
834  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Generic Congressional Ballot Polls Thread on: October 30, 2014, 03:40:29 pm
WTF is up with the Congressional Ballot being so mixed?
835  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Describe the preceding poster's posting history with an Upworthy style headline on: October 30, 2014, 02:59:05 am
50 Ways A Partisan Republican Turned Into A Social Democrat, And How You Can Too!
836  Election Archive / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: KS-01-Jayhawk Consulting: Democratic internal shows Huelskamp (R) down 7 on: October 29, 2014, 08:45:18 pm
837  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread on: October 29, 2014, 08:44:02 pm
The Republican primary fight's gonna be fun.
838  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: October 29, 2014, 04:37:35 pm
Hopefully Hawkins can get above 10%.
839  Election Archive / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Quinnipiac - Ernst up 4 on: October 29, 2014, 04:13:18 pm
21 point lead with early voting, yet down by 4? Colour me skeptical.

Quinnipiac has been super R-friendly this cycle. We'll see if they were right to be on Tuesday.

R-friendly as in what? Showing Republicans ahead?
As in showing the Pubs ahead by more than say PPP or SurveyUSA (to name two polls with a very strong track record)....I don't think Eraserhead is wrong here.
840  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Maine? on: October 29, 2014, 03:46:27 pm
Cutler's semi concession makes me think Michaud is ahead now, although there are some worrying signs here.
841  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Final Marquette poll out today! on: October 29, 2014, 06:45:29 am
Bring it on!
842  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Upset of election night on: October 28, 2014, 10:02:15 pm
I think some strong-red district like UT-04, AR-02, LA-06, KS-02, WV-02 will be an unexpected gain/hold for democrats.

LA-06 is going to a runoff no matter what happens on election night.
Is that the district where the lizard is running?
843  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Upset of election night on: October 28, 2014, 08:53:50 pm
Are we judging whether or not it's an upset by the polls, or just by what you'd expect from the fundamentals? For example, Coakley/Brownback losing wouldn't be surprising to any of us, but it would be for the latter type.
Former, though the latter would work for underpolled races (although most competitive Senate races has had a lot of polling).
844  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Upset of election night on: October 28, 2014, 08:38:52 pm
What do you think will be the biggest upsets of election night in Congress? Can be for both House and Senate races.
845  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is Bushie a personification of White Male Privilege? on: October 28, 2014, 08:14:52 pm
Yes (normal).
846  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in NH-1? on: October 28, 2014, 05:44:04 pm
CSP, though the tightening in the up-ticket races makes me nervous.
847  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who wins Alaska? on: October 28, 2014, 05:43:08 pm
848  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rate challengers/candidates in competitive races on: October 28, 2014, 06:41:43 am
Gardner - very strong
Cotton - strong
Cassidy - average
Perdue - weak
Tillis - weak
Sullivan - average
Ernst - average
Brown - strong

Nunn - very strong
Grimes - strong
Orman - strong
849  Election Archive / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Gravis: Crist up 2 on: October 27, 2014, 04:39:06 pm
Crist winning this sample is ominous news for Scott

But don't we all trash Gravis?...

We trash Gravis because they're usually ridiculously pro-GOP.
Not necessarily. On average, yes, but they also can show strong results for the Dems too. It's just crap AFAIC.
850  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: name an area and describe the most prevalent ideology on: October 27, 2014, 06:24:10 am
Sydney Metropolitan Area

It's a f**king big place. With over 4.5 million in the city (although the "city" basically means the same thing that Americans think a metro does, and there's over a million people living in urban areas in the Sydney commuter belt - there's about 4-5 hours of driving down the East Coast where most of the area can be considered urban).

There are thirty-eight local council areas (comparable to what Americans call a county, I guess) in Sydney, and they have a very mixed political ideology, although there is a very noticeable north-south divide in terms of political affiliation. Overall the city would've likely voted Labor in every election in the last 100 years, perhaps even in very bad years like 1966, 1975 and 1977 (when NSW was still the strongest state for Labor in the country).

I'll describe all these 38 the best I can.

Sydney City

Probably the most prominent local council, the council itself has been dominated by a left-leaning independent by the name of Clover Moore. In general, the council is rather varied. The west (Glebe) and south (Redfern, Waterloo, etc.) are very much Labor voting, although this area is gentrifying quite quickly, which leads it to a strong Greens vote and the potential for good results for the Liberals in the future. However the east (Darlinghurst, Paddington, etc.) are quite Liberal voting, albeit of the Malcolm Turnbull type rather than the Tony Abbott. Minority population depends on where you go - out of the people who actually live in the CBD, a lot of them are from Asia, and Redfern is known for its large Aboriginal population, but in general this area, like most of the inner suburbs is rather white.


Very right-wing. Turnbull probably won over 70% of the vote here, though granted he is a far more ideal fit for this district than a more populist conservative type. Uber-rich, you'd be laughing if you found a house under $1 million here, and this council area has an unusually high Jewish population and quite a few South Africans here.


Most famous for Bondi Beach (FWIW there's better beaches, but that might be because Bondi has way too many people). In general this area can vote for the right Labor candidate - like most of the Eastern suburbs it isn't particularly projective towards conservatism, but it does vote Liberal as this area is generally cashed up.


The home of Randwick Racecourse and the University of NSW (basically the second university in Sydney), this area is gentrifying (like most of the southern part of the city/inner suburbs), but unlike the other bits of the Eastern Suburbs it still is rather Labor-leaning. Don't know that much about this area, despite my cousins living near here.

Botany Bay

Docking/industrial area, and also the council area closest to the airport. Also home to a couple of golf courses. Rather left-wing area, and unlike most of Sydney east of Olympic Park, there still seems to be a lot of working-class areas.


My homeland. The most left-wing area in Sydney - if the Greens nominated a somewhat normal candidate they'd have won the state district in a canter, and it's home to Newtown, the king of the counter-culture and probably the best strip to go out apart from the CBD itself. Marrickville has also gentrified to a reasonable enough extent that there's a fair bit to do there, it has some gun places to eat. Also home to a Portuguese precinct in Petersham, which is my weakness regarding take-away foods.


Former working-class docking area and home to Sydney's Little Italy (but trust me, I live within walking distance of the so called Little Italy. It's pretty average, and the area just looks really fake and tacky, there are reasons why the only people you see in the Italian Forum are Asian tourists), this area is probably THE most gentrified area in Sydney. Like, median house prices are very high and are only rising. While the area still votes pretty solidly left-wing (heck, the Greens won a state seat here), the left is on a ticking time bomb here, particularly given that the Liberals will likely nominate a moderate here.


Now we start moving from the pretty white areas close to the city to the minority-heavy suburbs. The area used to (surprisingly?) vote quite Liberal back in the day, but these days it's pretty solidly Labor, and has a reasonable Greens vote (IIRC). I never really spent that much time in this part of Sydney, but when I have drove past it the area wasn't all that nice.

Canada Bay

Along with Leichhardt Council this area is gentrifying rather heavily. Perhaps it's being on Sydney Harbour that attracts yuppies that hate the north. Also has a very large Italian population. This area voted really heavily Liberal in the state election, and in general can probably be considered Liberal-leaning at this point.

I'll do the rest sometime over this week....
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