Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 26, 2017, 11:58:54 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: 1 ... 29 30 31 32 33 [34] 35 36 37 38 39 ... 275
826  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Sports you like on: March 13, 2015, 06:57:29 pm
Cricket, and to a lesser extent soccer. Don't have a strong opinion of hockey, don't really enjoy the other three for various reasons (though I'm certain that would change if I was American rather than Australian - I do really enjoy the more Australian forms of football).
827  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Would the preceding poster carry their state in a Presidential election? on: March 13, 2015, 06:49:18 pm
Probably.
828  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 13, 2015, 06:33:07 pm
Penny Sharpe seems like a terrible candidate for Newtown, what with the whole WestConnex fiasco, even if Labor has come up with an alternate 'solution' that avoids King street.  The Greens vote share will probably go up this year from 2011, so what makes you so sure that Balmain would also fall?

As for Summer Hill second place (it's where I live), it's tough to say.  I'd like to say the Greens as I've seen no campaign presence by the Liberals here, but that's almost always the case.  There are plenty of people who will come out and vote for the Liberals without anyone needing to tell them to.
Greens typically lose support as the election rolls on. More importantly, there'll be a drop of the Liberal vote.
829  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Pataki is lone GOP 2016er to criticize Iran letter on: March 13, 2015, 04:26:58 am
FF.
830  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should schools be able to expel students because of their speech on: March 12, 2015, 09:17:51 pm
Don't have any problems with this happening at a university.

School is a bit different though obviously.
831  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: In which of these cities did Obama win the white evangelical vote in 2012? on: March 12, 2015, 09:14:25 pm
What kind of evangelicals are we talking about?
832  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Alternatives to Hillary on: March 12, 2015, 09:12:57 pm
Warren would be the most powerful in a primary, though Gillibrand would be the strongest overall.
833  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite Country A-D (round 2) on: March 12, 2015, 09:09:12 pm
I'd be betraying my own life story if I didn't vote for my homeland.
834  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who would be the strongest candidates for the democrats (2016 senate election) on: March 12, 2015, 08:58:34 pm
Alabama: There's Democrats here?
Alaska: Probs Begich
Arizona: Kirkpatrick (think Sinema's history pre-Congress will hurt)
Arkansas: Beebe
California: Harris
Florida: Murphy
Georgia: Barrow
Idaho: Balukoff
Illinois: Bustos
Indiana: Bayh
Iowa: Vilsack
Kansas: Davis
Kentucky: Beshear
Lousiana: Mary Landrieu
Maryland: Van Hollen
New Hampshire: Hassan
North Carolina: Shuler
North Dakota: Conrad
Ohio: Strickland
Oklahoma: Dan Boren
Pennsylvania: Sestak
South Carolina: Sheheen
South Dakota: Herseth-Sandlin
Utah: Matheson
Wisconsin: Feingold
835  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Is the previous poster's state more conservative than yours? on: March 12, 2015, 08:50:58 pm
NC/Virginia? Yes
California? Perhaps not, though for obvious reasons it's difficult to compare.
836  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-10: Schneider expected to announce this month on: March 12, 2015, 08:36:19 pm
lol, this seat's basically the new IN-8.
837  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Democrats only: 6 wishes... on: March 12, 2015, 08:34:49 pm
Carter - seems a decent candidate, don't like Deal.
Quinn - best losing Democrat ideologically, Rauner is basically Illinois's answer to Mitt Romney.
P. Davis - because Brownback is the worst
Michaud - he isn't LePage. Adds diversity.
Burke - Walker losing would scuttle his Presidential plans, plus the Pubbie's hard-on for him here annoys me Tongue
Schauer - I considered Crist, but while he isn't Scott, he's not much better either. I didn't want to reward Brown's campaign, and I'm not sure what Wendy Davis stood for barring abortion. So Schauer by default I guess. Snyder signed RTW, so there's one reason to oppose him.
838  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Mike Huckabee on: March 12, 2015, 08:23:04 pm
The 08 version of him was probably neutralish - I didn't agree with his views, but he did seem genuine and a nice guy. Now he's a clear HP.
839  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Peter King on: March 12, 2015, 08:21:07 pm
The worst
840  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the highest, how much does Hillary Clinton love war? on: March 12, 2015, 08:20:27 pm
10 (politician)
841  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: March 12, 2015, 08:19:37 pm
Why has no-one created a minor right-wing party that isn't an utter joke?
842  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Best Populist of Atlasia on: March 12, 2015, 08:18:39 pm
Populism isn't an ideology, it's a rhetorical style.
Ding ding ding ding.

Americans are stupid when it comes to describing ideologies.
843  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gallup: Hillary best known 2016 candidate, but not the most-liked on: March 12, 2015, 05:34:15 pm
Eh? Only one with better likability is Carson, and how many people know him as a politician?
844  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the Previous Poster's Signature: The Wrath of Khan on: March 12, 2015, 05:33:11 pm
Excellent quote and a FF too.
845  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 12, 2015, 06:15:11 am
OK predictions again. Except this time I should know what I'm talking about, given I live here, and always have:

Albury - Liberal hold.
Auburn - Labor hold.
Ballina - traditionally a safe Nationals seat at the seat level, but federally this seat is pretty solidly Labor and the sitting MP is retiring. Given the Greens vote is really strong here due, it will prohbaly be a three horse race. If preferences run like they did in Queensland, I forsee a Labor gain here. Otherwise, a narrow National hold.
Balmain - with Firth recontesting, I think the ALP regain this seat. I think the seat will vote Liberal eventually, but if they didn't win it in 2011.....
Bankstown - Labor hold.
Barwon - probably a Nationals hold. That said, it is one of the seats where the anti-CSG campaign is running, and given the seat now has Broken Hill......it could be very fertile territory for an independent.
Bathurst - my bolter. Not prepared to give it to Labor due to the sitting MP's popularity, but it should swing big due to the privatisation thing and also rural discontent towards the Coalition. If Labor wins, this is my "OMG wow" seat that they win, like Bundaberg/Maryborough was in Queensland.
Baulkham Hills - Liberal hold.
Bega - interesting. It would be very marginal on federal figures and there wasn't that big of a swing here in 2011. Certainly it could be a bolter, though I'll play it safe and say it stays in Coalition hands for now.
Blacktown - Labor hold.
Blue Mountains - traditionally a bellwether, the district feels like it is trending in Labor's favour (they may well have held the electorate under CPV in 2011, and it is pretty safe for them federally), so I'm calling this a Labor gain.
Cabramatta - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Camden - with the district being more obviously exurban since the redistribution, this should be a Liberal seat until Labor are well entrenched in government.
Campbelltown - despite the redistribution making the district 1. better for the Liberals and 2. Liberal held on federal figures, this should probably flip back to Labor.
Canterbury - Labor hold.
Castle Hill - Liberal hold.
Cessnock - Labor hold.
Charlestown - Labor hold. Will be interested to see the margin though - the Liberals didn't contest the by-election, but they did very well here in 2011.
Clarence - National hold, albeit with a big swing against them.
Coffs Harbour - ditto.
Coogee - tough. If preferences work like they did in Queensland, Labor gain. Otherwise a Liberal hold. Might not swing particularly big either.
Cootamundra - National hold.
Cronulla - Liberal hold.
Davidson - Liberal hold.
Drummoyne - there will probably be some correction in Labor's favour, but the seat should remain Liberal in this election.
Dubbo - National hold.
East Hills - too marginal for the Liberals to hold, but the swing might not be that great.
Epping - Liberal hold.
Fairfield - Labor hold. Likely to swing big.
Gosford - tough to call. Gut feel that Holstein will barely hang on due to the fact that he wasn't ICAC'd possibly helping his centrist credentials.
Goulburn - probably a Liberal hold, but the area has been receptive to Labor in the (admittedly distant) past and Labor have a strong candidate here....
Granville - one of the first seats to flip back to Labor.
Hawkesbury - Liberal hold.
Heathcote - with the redistribution this looks safer for the Liberals. Shouldn't flip this election, anyway.
Heffron - Labor hold.
Holsworthy - could go either way. I think the fact that the sitting MP is from the Sutherland side of the district (which got carved out of the district in the redistribution) rather than the Liverpool side suggests that Labor narrowly pinch it.
Hornsby - Liberal hold.
Keira - Labor hold.
Kiama - interesting one. Think Labor pick it up.
Kogarah - Labor hold, perhaps with a below-average swing.
Ku-ring-gai - Liberal hold.
Lake Macquarie - Independent hold presumably.
Lakemba - Labor hold.
Lane Cove - Liberal hold.
Lismore - traditionally a conservative seat at the state level, nowhere in the state is the anti-CSG campaign biting harder. Will come down to how tight the Labor and Greens preference flows are.
Liverpool - Labor hold.
Londonderry - should be a fairly straight forward Labor gain.
Macquarie Fields - despite the retirement of the sitting MP and the redistribution, the seat should flip back to Labor.
Maitland - probable Labor gain.
Manly - Liberal hold.
Maroubra - Labor hold.
Miranda - with Collier not recontesting, the seat should go back to the Liberals.
Monaro - had Whan decided against a rematch the seat might have been salvagable. As it is.....
Mount Druitt - Labor hold.
Mulgoa - will probably go to the winner. For now, narrow Liberal hold.
Murray - National hold.
Myall Lakes - National hold.
Newcastle - Labor hold, probably with a slightly reduced margin to the by-election.
Newtown - tough. Both Labor and the Greens have their chances here. Forced to call, I'd say the Greens narrowly hold, though Labor IMO have the stronger candidate.
North Shore - Liberal hold.
Northern Tablelands - National hold.
Oatley - despite the small margin, I actually think the Liberals hang on here, given that the area voted Liberal fairly comfortably in 2013, and the fact that the highly popular Kevin Greene is no longer there.
Orange - National hold.
Oxley - National hold.
Parramatta - key contest, could be crucial towards deciding who wins. Narrow Liberal hold perhaps.
Penrith - with Jackie Kelly (ex-MP for the local federal seat of Lindsay) contesting as an independent this is very interesting. Hard to call, but for now I'll give the edge towards Ayers (the Liberal candidate and sitting MP) holding on.
Pittwater - Liberal hold.
Port Macquarie - National hold.
Port Stephens - with the sitting MP ICAC'd, and a below average swing here in 2011, I think Labor narrowly pick it up.
Prospect - if Labor can't win this back, they may as well give up.
Riverstone - probably a Liberal hold, but it would be Labor held on federal results (mostly due to Jaymes Diaz, but still....), so if the night is really good for Labor, there is upset potential here.
Rockdale - fairly routine Labor gain.
Ryde - Liberal hold, though with a big correction in Labor's favour.
Seven Hills - with Rees retiring, and an unfavourable redistribution to drag this into more Liberal-friendly territory in the Hills, I think the Liberals narrowly hold on unless it's a bad night for them.
Shellharbour - Labor hold.
South Coast - Liberals probably hold on here.
Strathfield - if Labor had pre-selected a low profile candidate I'd give the Liberals a good chance of hanging on here against the swing. But Labor did elect a high profile candidate here, one that will join Labor's cabinet and give them some experience, and also should get some sympathy for standing up to property developers/the Terrigals in her first term in parliament. Therefore, probably a Labor gain.
Summer Hill - Labor hold, it will be interesting to see who finished 2nd though.
Swansea - straight forward Labor gain.
Sydney - not sure here. The district is more Liberal now than what it was during Clover's time, and also it's likely that Greenwich doesn't have the same profile Clover did. On the other hand, it's hard to see Liberals gaining districts they don't already have......also their candidate seems a bit weak. Forced to call, Greenwich hangs on.
Tamworth - this will come down to how well the anti-CSG campaign bites. Foley's lack of success in his old district makes me skeptical of Draper's hopes of regaining Tamworth, but if the Nationals start to stink, it'll be very interesting. Forced to call, Nationals hold for now.
Terrigal - although the fact that the long term sitting MP was forced to retire from corruption allegations will hurt the Liberals here, the seat looks a bit too safe for it to fall unless the wind was well in Labor's backs.
The Entrance - another sitting Liberal MP from the Central Coast/Hunter ICAC'd. Will be close, I think Labor pinch this one.
Tweed - the North Coast trends against the Nationals will concern them here, but I'll say it'll be a National hold unless the election is a bad one for them.
Upper Hunter - should be safe for the Nationals, but the anti-CSG campaign is biting here...and it has been more marginal at the federal level in the past. Nationals should hold with a big swing against them, most likely.
Vaucluse - Liberal hold.
Wagga Wagga - Liberal hold.
Wakehurst - Liberal hold.
Wallsend - Labor hold.
Willoughby - Liberal hold.
Wollondilly - with the new boundaries, this seat should be Liberal held for the forseeable future.
Woolongong - like in 2011, a left-leaning Independent is Labor's main challenge in this seat. However given that Bradbury's challenge to Hay didn't pay off in 2011, I'm not seeing a reason why Rorris's will in 2015.
Wyong - with the sitting MP forced to resign and the guy who lost (with a below average swing against him, it must be said) recontesting, this should go back to Labor. Particularly given that Labor held it on federal figures in 2013 despite....you know.

So by my calculations:

Coalition: 49
Labor: 41
Other: 3

Coalition 3 seats away from losing their majority....guess this kinda shows how ALP-leaning the boundaries are in NSW.

In general, this is how I think the regions will swing:

Labor "heartland" - aka the Western Suburbs, the Hunter and Illawarra. This area will probably be where the anti-privatisation message will kick the hardest, accordingly I expect these seats to rush back to Labor. Expect the Fairfields, Liverpools, Lakembas, etc. of the world to have 20%+ margins again.

Liberal "heartland" - North Shore/Northern Beaches basically. The North Shore will probably stick with the Liberals for the most part and remain quite safe, though Labor should at least finish 2nd here in the majority of the districts.

The marginal suburbs - think Parramatta, Penrith, Oatley, etc. In contrast to the more underprivileged suburbs, I think this area will (relatively) stick with Baird, due to his more grandoise promises regarding infrastructure, and them being wealthier making Foley's more populist message resonate less with these people. In addition, the so-called "mortgage belt" has traditionally been fairly pro-incumbent, and are willing to back them to the hilt unless they look gone.

Rural NSW - the wildcard. There definitely seems to be some souring towards the Nationals, and it is seen with Labor campaigning in Upper Hunter, an strong anti-CSG campaign in Ballina and Lismore, etc. I think this area will swing big towards Labor, and could tip the Coalition out of government.
846  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What did/do your parents do for a living? on: March 12, 2015, 05:51:47 am
Dad: Factory worker turned manager of said factory. Not 100% sure what he does now since I don't live with him anymore, I believe though he has a similar position at his current workplace to to the one at his previous workplacing.
Mum: Has traditionally done largely office/clerical work, both in the public and private sectors. Has since moved into management of her current workplace. She didn't work for about 3 years while having me and my sister.

In reality though actually what my parents do is hard to explain.
847  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you feel sorry for the white liberals in Birmingham, Alabama? on: March 12, 2015, 05:28:52 am
Not really. Far worse to be a white liberal in rural Alabama, where even the blacks probably don't have a lot of common with you.

And unlike BRTD, I could deal with being dominated by opposing ideologies (despite growing up in a strong left-wing bubble).
848  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 12, 2015, 05:24:02 am
I have a question:

In other anglo countries such as the Canada, the US and Great Britain, inner city areas that "gentrify" still tend to vote solidly for non-conservative parties - such as electing Democrats to the House of Representatives  in the US, electing Labour or occasionally LibDem MPs in the UK anbd electing Liberals and New Democrats in Canada. The Canadian equivalent of the Liberal Party of Australia would be the Conservative Party... and it will be a cold day in hell before an inner city seat in Toronto will elect a Conservative at any level - no matter gentrified or high income it gets. Similarly no congressional district in Manhattan will elect a Republican - no matter how rich and gentrified it gets.

So how is it that in Australia - people in an inner city socially liberal, gentrified area of Sydney would even think of voting for a rabidly rightwing party led by a Catholic social conservative like the Liberal party of Australia?? Its not as if the ALP is some revolutionary party that wants to confiscate everyone's wealth.
Ehh....they wouldn't vote for an Abbott-led Liberal party, but they may be somewhat receptive to Turnbull. Look at the swing he's got in his own electorate!

UK and Canada are a bit different to Australia as they have three parties not two. I don't think the areas you describe vote Labour/NDP, instead they vote Liberal. And the US is basically redundant, the voting patterns are rather different to what they are here.

There has been some evidence of a softening of the ALP vote in these areas. In addition, these areas are really rich. To get a house around Balmain for example (once a solidly working-class area, look at the amount of pubs there!) is really expensive, like most of the old working-class is being priced out of there. In the long term you're not gonna see the latte liberals that live there now be around, instead it'll be like the mini-North Shore. Look at Drummoyne, a seat John Howard couldn't pick up. It's now pretty solidly Liberal, due to a lot of wealthy waterside developments. The same factors that affected that seat will affect Balmain before too long IMO.

If you add the OPV effect (the latte liberal/champagne socialist vote being split between the ALP and the Greens), then you get a big shot for the LNP to sneak to victory.

Still, this likely won't happen for another 10+ years at least.
849  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Mason Dixon: Rubio & Atwater (R) would lead Wasserman-Schultz & Murphy (D) on: March 12, 2015, 02:20:05 am
Is this Atwater any relation to the late George H.W. Bush campaign manager?
850  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: New South Wales State Election, 2015 on: March 11, 2015, 03:20:16 pm
Why do you think the Liberals will win seats like Sydney and Balmain down the road? Is it similar to the gentrification situation in Queensland with seats like Brisbane Central and Bulimba?
Basically, yes. In fact, Sydney if you discount Clover would actually be quite solidly Liberal on 2011 results, and even federally Labor probably would've lost it without CPV.
Pages: 1 ... 29 30 31 32 33 [34] 35 36 37 38 39 ... 275


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines