is your friend :p
1. South Dakota (D-Open) - Pressler is polling OK, but not well enough to put the seat in danger.
2. West Virginia (D-Open)
3. Montana (D-Walsh)
4. Louisiana (D-Landrieu) - while previously I thought the jungle primary would be her Achilles heal, now it might actually save her. There hasn't been a published public poll in ages with her having a lead.
5. Arkansas (D-Pryor) - he's not out of the woods yet, and it looks like his rebound may be declining, but his position looks much better than it did 3 months ago.
6. North Carolina (D-Hagan) - well they didn't make the mistake of nominating Brannon, and Hagan's polling still looks ordinary, so this is worrying. Tillis is still an ordinary candidate though.
7. Alaska (D-Begich) - probably running the best campaign of the red-state Dems, although Sullivan seems like a pretty solid candidate. Want some polling here.
8. Kentucky (R-McConnell)
9. Colorado (D-Udall) - I want to see polling here.
10. Iowa (D-Open) - think Ernst is still a pretty weak candidate, but there's little doubt Braley dropped the ball here to some extent. Her leads were probably a post-primary bounce though.
11. Michigan (D-Open) - Peters has finally broken away. The CW here was that it was always over-rated as a pick-up opportunity, and it looks like they've been proven right.
12. Georgia (R-Open) - unfortunately the Republican's two strongest candidates got into the run-off. Will be hard for Nunn to get the 50%+1 to beat them, as they seem uncontroversial and Georgia is still a very red state.
13. New Hampshire (D-Shaheen) - Brown's campaign has been a joke. Shaheen should crush him.
14. Mississippi (R-Cochran) - I think Cochran loses the primary here. But it's still Mississippi, where even someone as controversial as McDaniel is favoured.
15. Minnesota (D-Franken) - there's some hope in McFadden's camp that he might make it close, but Franken seems popular and Minnesota hasn't been kind for Republicans lately.
16. Oregon (D-Merkley) - Wehby had potential, but she's too scandal prone to win I feel.
17. Virginia (D-Warner)
18. South Carolina-A (R-Graham) - Dems actually have a possible contingency if Graham loses the primary, but the polling indicates that he's safe.
19. Kansas (R-Roberts) - hard to know. Don't really think a Tea Party upset will happen here, but anything could happen. Kansas is still very red, so even with a primary upset it'll be hard for us to win.
20. Tennessee (R-Alexander) - ditto.
21. New Mexico (D-Udall)
22. Nebraska (R-Open)
23. Oklahoma-B (R-Open) - Democrats failed to get serious opposition for what was an open seat.
24. New Jersey (D-Booker) - Rassmussen had Booker up by an underwhelming margin, but don't hold your breath.
25. Illinois (D-Durbin) - similarly, Durbin's lead is smaller than expected, but he'll win easily.
26. Massachusetts (D-Markey)
27. Texas (R-Cornyn)
28. Maine (R-Collins) - now that she's won her primary, she'll be completely safe. In 2008 she managed to knock off a pretty good recruit by 20 points, which says a lot.
29. Hawaii (D-Schatz) - regardless of the primary, the Republicans could only find a perennial candidate who lost to Inouye by 50 points.
30. South Carolina-B (R-Scott)
31. Delaware (D-Coons)
32. Idaho (R-Risch)
33. Oklahoma-A (R-Inhofe)
34. Rhode Island (D-Reed)
35. Wyoming (R-Enzi)
36. Alabama (R-Sessions) - is literally running unopposed.
Seems to be an unusually high amount of safe races.