Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 01, 2014, 01:19:19 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 15
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: February 02, 2012, 05:08:58 am
It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?
Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect Smiley - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.

Unfortunately no, because, one day it's day D-3 plus day D-2 plus day D-1 plus day D.
The next one, it's the same plus day D+1. and then it's only D-1, D, D+1 and D+2. And then, only 3 days, etc.
It's completely erratic and you can't infer some daily samples because the total samples are never calculated with the same number of daily samples in them.
Sad

Non non non, my explanation above is false actually, but it's so confusing than I hope you will excuse me Smiley : they use the data from day-1 at noon, day-2, day-3 and day-4 before noon, which makes exactly three days. They use this method every day, even if sometimes they themselves make mistakes in their reports, saying the filed only last 3 days... But actually I'm not sure if you can find the daily samples since they don't use full days...

I hope one day Gallup will come back in France !
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: February 01, 2012, 04:49:33 pm
It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!
And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...
They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?

Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect Smiley - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: January 12, 2012, 05:26:51 am
The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally.


great ! you point exactly right on the target

Of course, the PS is totally finished even if its candidate is still on his way to win with a larger margin than Mitterrand in 1988... I know how the medias will try to make it fun and tense until the end, but Hollande is not Deferre at this point, am I right?
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: January 06, 2012, 04:53:28 am
We are Friday and still no new poll Sad
I was convinced they'd go back to "work" as soon as the 2nd of January...
They seemed hungry enough to be interested in this "good school-boy" start from Hollande (he is really lucky to have Sarkozy against him...); so, why can't they "create" the event by polling NOW ?

French medias are really big, big sh*** Angry

Don't worry Fab, you will have a bunch of new polls next week, at least IFOP, BVA, CSA, OpinionWay, and maybe one of the two best IMO, IPSOS and TNS Sofres.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: France, alternate elections - requests on: December 13, 2011, 11:40:50 am
Here's gay marriage at 57% support:



Making heads or tails of which places would vote NO was really hard. I assumed the most rural Catholic places and rural right-wing places in the east.

My next project is France with Canadian parties (sans Bloc).

Thanks, that's really interesting! I tried to make one related to an old thread but it was really difficult to figure out...

I just wonder why do you think the rather right-wing Charentes-Maritimes would vote more in favor of same-sex marriage than the more urban and left-wing Vienne? I also have a hard time understanding why Savoie would be that socially liberal (more than 60% in favor of gay marriage here, really?) and on the other hand I'm a little skeptical about the "no" vote in Aveyron and Cantal, but that's not a very educated guess Wink .

What do you think a death penalty referendum map would look like? I'm not asking you another map, but I really don't know if we would find the same rural vs. urban divide in this case...
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: December 09, 2011, 10:01:51 am
IMO the tracker should be based not on the publishing dates but on the field dates, the only ones which make sense if you're tracking voting intentions. Maybe you can use all the polls whose fields are executed from Monday to Monday (or any other seven days round of course), and publish the tracker only two or three days after, in order to wait for the publication of all of them?

Anyway, I wish you good luck with your work. You shall overcome! Wink
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: France, alternate elections - requests on: December 09, 2011, 09:13:14 am
Great idea! I'd like to see the map of a referendum on gay mariage, nowadays, with, let's see, about 57% in favor of it.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: November 21, 2011, 10:08:44 am
anyway, those 2e round results are fantaisist

even De Gaulle didn't break the wall of 56 points

and in 1980, for poll institutes, Giscard was given winner by 60-40 vs Mitterrand...

the 2012 2e round will be more too close-to-call (except if Marine goes in final)

Well, of course I have no clue about what will be the outcome of the 2012 election, but I really think it is not because since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, the six left-wing vs. right-wing presidential elections were rather close that it will be again the case next year. I don't understand why we would be that exceptional in that regard.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 31, 2011, 11:15:21 am
Stupid French pollsters. They come with 4 new polls in a week, and then ABSOLUTELY NOTHING the next one...
Hey, if you have something like €15,000 to spend, I'm pretty sure some polling compagnies would warmly welcome you Wink
Seriously, you should blame those who paid for these polls rather than the pollsters themselves.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 19, 2011, 02:15:26 pm
In CSA (I'll publish it tomorrow), Hollande is already at 35%.

And let me assure you he will be higher in tomorrow morning's poll, it gonna be really big Wink

What I like in this CSA poll is the analysis: they dare to say Hollande is at a fair level among the working-class voters when he polls at 28%, 7 points under his polling total. Well, ok, he is first among this group, but he is tied with Marine... Clearly, Terra Nova was right earlier this year, saying the working class is lost for the left in France, too.

BTW, I was just noticing that many pollster now have a sample of 1000 respondents from which they extract about 850/900 registered voters. I'm not sure, but IIRC, in 2007, the standard was a 1000 RV's sample, right?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 16, 2011, 02:21:14 pm
Does Nadine Morono make money or something when she says retarded things? Is she like in a contest with Cope and Jacob for "say the most inane things"?

She reminds me... well... a beheaded chicken that is still clucking.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 16, 2011, 12:45:27 pm
On 279,542 votes, 56,85% for Hollande.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 16, 2011, 12:35:50 pm
78% for Hollande in Melle (Ségolène Royal hometown) according to I-Télé.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 16, 2011, 08:10:13 am
Yes, the adress is correct, but I've received nothing. Weird... Huh

You can find them here too, but I don't know if they are really based on the final results...
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 14, 2011, 05:59:27 am
Very nice maps!

If I can suggest something to Fab (only if his maps are not already done, of course), it would be to choose a discretization by quintiles or quartiles, in order to see better where are the strongholds of the little candidates (Royal, Valls).
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 12, 2011, 05:00:15 pm
I admit I feel a bit sorry for Segogo:

Melle (79)
Hollande 43%
Royal 32%
Montebourg 13%
Aubry 11%

Haha.

The comparison between Royal's and Baylet's strongholds is indeed cruel for the first one...

Baylet 59%
Hollande 17%
Aubry 10%
Montebourg 7%
Royal 4%
Valls 2%
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 12, 2011, 10:39:43 am
***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande, in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.
Or she hates Hollande more than Aubry, and is cleverer than you think. Tongue
Occam's razor applies perfectly here, IMO.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 12, 2011, 07:02:40 am
***BREAKING NEWS***

Ségolène just endorsed Hollande, in order to "amplify his lead" ! So she hates Aubry more than Hollande, no doubt anymore.

Well, I see that as a good sign, regardless of what you guys will say :-).
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 12, 2011, 04:56:36 am
Mathieu, if you read us, is there any poll in sight before Sunday ?

I'd be surprised if Harris doesn't make one. Le Parisien is always hungry to have a "breaking" poll Wink.

IFOP ? Well, France-Soir hasn't money any longer Tongue, le JDD is published on Sunday and LCP may be reluctant.

Don't worry, at last one Harris poll (for LCP !) will be released today. Basically the same results as Opinionway, you can find them here but the full data is still not on their website. Concerning IFOP I have no clue...
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 10, 2011, 03:40:34 am
So do the primaries have a run-off if no candidate gets a majority or is it a plurality system?

Yup.


Hollandists seem to be playing their last card : choose the candidate who can beat Sarkozy. I doubt it's a winning strategy though, it might seem arrogant. Also, Najat Belkacem on France Inter was pretty pathetic : we did a magnific campaign, everybody loved us but we lost because of evul pollz and tactical voting !!!1!!1!! But that's what you can expect from such a sectarian movement.

so, good news for Nicolas with a Abry victory!

Aubry is perfectly able to beat Sarkozy. She has a slighter lead in 1st round polls, but still defeat Sarko by around 10 points in the runoff. And what's more important, she's, IMO, the most able to face an agressive campaign, far more than a consensualist wimp like Hollande.

Also Sarkozy is a campaign animal, actually

It's not really useful since he is by far the most unpopular incumbent President looking for reelection.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 09, 2011, 03:04:24 pm

Montebourg and Royal will say how to vote tomorrow and "soon", respectively.
Hard to say from what they said.


A journalist said on I-télé that Aubry and Montebourg didn't talk to each other since 6 months, so who knows what will happen...

Anyone knows why there is twice more invalid votes in the "consolidated results" columns than in the first one?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 09, 2011, 02:26:25 pm
I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She lives in a constant state of paranoid rigidity. That's the first thing.

Well at least she's not a useless, do-nothing wimp with a vague personalist campaign.

Since I'm not a socialist at all, it sounds great to me :-).
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 09, 2011, 02:18:53 pm
I don't know much about French politics, so what's wrong with Aubry?

She lives in a constant state of paranoid rigidity. That's the first thing.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 09, 2011, 02:09:46 pm
Results website gone crazy... Now indicates 0 votes... Huh

FRAUD!
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 09, 2011, 02:00:44 pm
I'm fed up with this country...

Should have voted today Sad

I don't think all the Montebourg supporters will vote for Aubry. Between 2/3 and 3/4 I would say. I still think Hollande is slightly the favourite, even more if Ségolene endorses him (which I have no clue about).

Well, I realize this is not precisely the argument of the winner of the night :-).
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 15


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines