Any seats projection ?

loooooooool @ PS and Modem !

France is keeping its breath...

hum, just a (little) third of France...

I'm at the Modem office, and very happy to see all these frustrated faces :-)

LX Parl 46/819

CSV 40.1
DP 16.4
LSAP 16
Greenies 12.5
ADR 10.5
Left 2.9
KPL 1.1
BL 0.5

Quite a bad defeat for the Socialists (LSAP), victory for the CSV.

A friend of mine is second on the Green list, but if the results are about the same for the european elections than for the general, she has no chance... But we should wait for the populated places in the south.

We will know if a realignment is in process only after the next two elections, at least. The next one can very well be a "deviating election", where the changes are important but temporary.

Actually I would say the 20's and the 30's were the only indisputable realigning period in Britain, even if one can consider 1979 (or more likely 1983) and 1997 as kinds of "sub-realigning election". We have the bad habit to see realignment everywhere when they are a very rare phenomenon: this is a conceptual problem, because each political scientist gives his own definition of what a realignment is.

It's amusing to see the PS ahead only in the West constituency.

Berlusconi is the Hugh Hefner of politics.

Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi has moved to block the publication of hundreds of photos, including images of topless and bikini-clad young women, at one of his Sardinian villas, it is reported.

Those pictures have now been released by a Spanish newspaper:

ATTENTION: Lots of penises and boobs ! Watch at your own risk !

http://www.elpais.com/fotogaleria/imagenes/censuradas/Berlusconi/6527-1/elpgal/

Did... did I just see Berlusconi's partially erect penis?

"Sadly" this is just a guest. A huésped in Spanish, according to El Pais.

Greens 15,5

wow, I was expecting the exact contrary at the beginning of the campaign, but it's a very nice move anyway!

You really should keep cool about Sarkozy's supposed hidden conservative agenda. IMO Sarkozy is not at all a religious conservative. The first thing that comes to my mind is about gay marriage. Before the 2007 elections, the UMP asked Luc Ferry to provide a report on the implications gay marriage, and Ferry finally said that there is nothing serious against it.

Shortly afterwards it was reported that Sarkozy had meetings with Amélie Mauresmo, the lesbian tenniswoman, and in the same time some ministers (one of them was Borloo IIRC) moved in favor of gay marriage.

I think it was a serious attemp to move on this issue, but since Sarkozy is not a moron (well, strategically speaking at least...) he finally realised he would have angered millions of right-wing voters, even if this issue is not as important as it is in the US.

So no, he's not a religious conservative. He's just another politician who will do what he thinks is best in order to win an election. And as Hashemite's maps prove, it's hard to say that transforming the UMP in a religious party would be a smart move...

Number of times each department has voted for left or right (counting Poher as a leftie, obviously) in runoffs.

Right, but I counted Poher as a conservative candidate too. That's why I used four colours for the right and three for the left, since right-wing candidates won all the departments in 1969 and 2002.

Ok it's my turn now. A not too difficult one I guess, still with France.

Looking at percentage in the Ouest ( Vendée especially ), I would think it has to do with a Monarchy/Republic choice. So I will say ( but it's only hypothetical ) the amendment Wallon.

It's not the Amendement Wallon.

So is it related to the 1905 law on the separation of the churches and the State?

Yes, so weird. That guy isn't a leader. He can't gather around him.

We're speaking of the president of France, right?

Was Sarkozy this kind of guy ten years ago?

IMO, either Sarkozy will be reelected in 2012 or Bayrou will beat him, but socialist candidates don't stand a (fair) chance of winning.

So here's my two predictions :

Sarkozy (2007-2017)
Peillon (2017-2022)
Copé (2022-2027)


or

Sarkozy (1007-2012)
Bayrou (2012-2017)
Copé (2017-2027)
(such an horrible future, for sure).

France

PRG 84,6%
Newropeans 78,1%
PS 76,3%
Alternative libérale 74,4%
MRC 73%

The last four are stunning...

Overall

1.GroenLinks   88,8%   
2.Demokratesch Partei - Demokratische Partei   88,8%   
3.Parti Radical de Gauche   87,9%   
4.Freie Wähler   87,5%   
5.Hrvatska socijalno liberalna stranka   87,5%   
6.Strana zelených   85,3%   
7.Magyar Szocialista Párt   85,2%   
8.Szabad Demokraták Szövetsége   85,1%   
9.Parti socialiste   84,8%
10.Partij van de Arbeid   84,4%

A new Ifop poll (the one that already try to poll the 2012 presidential election...).

UMP 26,5% (+0,5%)
PS 22,5% (-0,5%)
MoDem 14% (-0,5%)
Greenies 7,5% (+0,5%)
FN 7,5% (+1,5%)
NPA 7% (-2%)
PCF-PG 5,5% (+1,5%)
Libertas 5% (=)
LO 2,5% (-0,5%)
DLR 1,5% (-0,5%)

It's quasi-impossible to measure abstention well (CSA sez 49%, OW says 51%), though as it stands right now, I'd say abstention will break 60%.

I think turnout will be quite higher than in 2004, because then, voters took out their dissatisfaction with the government two months before during the regional elections. Of course, there was no economic crisis too...

If ALDE was not represented by the Modem in France, I would like to vote for them. So I will vote Green.

there's the PRG, which is actually an ELDR observer, but they're not running (and did not endorse the PS, actually!). So you're in sh**t.

Anyway, I hate Baylet and his joke party and I hate the PS too. The party I detest the least is the Greens, so I'm consistent: I vote for them or I abstain.

If ALDE was not represented by the Modem in France, I would like to vote for them. So I will vote Green.

Danish Venstre.

Lol Germany. SPD first? Lolz.

I don't know if it really makes more sense, but did you noticed that CDU and CSU are separate there? It's not so different than what polls predict for the next federal election.

My bad, I didn't read the whole topic. Let's hope a sane guy will be ahead, but since there is no sane candidates in French politics...

None of the candidates in 2007 were sane, or anywhere close to being so.

So sad Cindy Lee didn't run.

My bad, I didn't read the whole topic. Let's hope a sane guy will be ahead, but since there is no sane candidates in French politics...

[Second Poll]

Second Poll

Sample : 7

Sarkozy : 43%
Nihous : 29%
Bayrou : 14%
Royal : 14%

I can't believe it : we're going to have a Nihous-Sarkozy second round...
The existence of CPNT is an insult to french politics.

Anyways : 7 votes is a very poor result. We need more turnout !!!

He, I voted for Voynet but it seems my vote doesn't appear...