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26  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 09, 2011, 01:58:25 pm
I'm fed up with this country...

Should have voted today Sad

I don't think all the Montebourg supporters will vote for Aubry. Between 2/3 and 3/4 I would say. I still think Hollande is slightly the favourite, even more if Ségolene endorses him (which I have no clue about).
27  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 09, 2011, 01:21:32 pm
Everybody should switch on I-télé, Jean-François Copé is utterly hypocritical: "only 4 citizens on 100 voted today".

Tautology.

Ok, I should have said "exceptionnally".

Nothing changed with 661,000 ballots in.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 09, 2011, 01:17:25 pm
Everybody should switch on I-télé, Jean-François Copé is utterly hypocritical: "only 4 citizens on 100 voted today".
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 09, 2011, 01:04:05 pm
The first results are here: http://resultats.lesprimairescitoyennes.fr/

Of course the PS still sucks and is not able to aggregate the results, so you must have a look at each departments...
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: October 08, 2011, 04:35:17 pm
Indeed, I'm expecting a fun election tomorrow. Let's see. Smiley

I'll ask the same, boring question as usual : when will we get the first results ? Well, at least this time there's no time zone issue. Tongue


It seems the first results will be available at 21:00, and "consolidated results" (I don't know what does it mean exactly) at 23:00. We will have two declarations about turnout level at 12:00 and 19:00. No exit polls, AFAIK.


OK, guys, here is the graph: all the polls for the French PS primary since DSK affair began !


Nice - and useful - graph for sure! You can find some others here.
31  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: September 29, 2011, 10:54:51 am
Some others results below. Nothing really surprising, but the "most leftist"/"most rightist" are funny, though. And Baylet is surprisingly high in the whole poll, of course.











32  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: September 15, 2011, 03:15:12 pm
She has been like Martine Aubry: serious, clear, knowledgeable, but not very exciting. And the way she talks, with all these hackneyed expressions, exactly the way we can expect from an énarque, it really bores me.
33  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: September 15, 2011, 01:59:29 pm
I might be a hack, but so far Aubry was clearly the best in this initial sequence. She had a clear speech, talked about issues and not about vague terms, called out Sarkozy and made sense.

Well, you're not a hack, just partisan ;-)
I support Hollande and I really believe he is way much stronger so far.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: September 08, 2011, 10:56:58 am
Please forgive my lateness, but now I'm back at work in Sciences Po, so it's harder to find enough time to update the trackers.

Hope you took the US elections and political behavior class ;-)
35  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: August 22, 2011, 05:32:41 am
So this is not an actual presidential poll, merely some weird and not particularly useful questions. Tongue

Don't worry,your long-awaited presidential poll is slowly coming. Thursday I think. And there will be some other primary polls this week, hope they will be more interesting than the Viavoice stuff.
36  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: How much do you know about French politics [and history]? on: August 18, 2011, 01:05:34 pm

34. This is a very good question... I would have said some town of Aliier but I must mess with Commentry... No, I don't see... And that should be something surprising probably... I should know, that's terrible Sad
Very fine question, Hash !

Ahah by chance I spent some days close to this city two weeks ago and it was written in the Guide du Routard! And be sure I don't spend my holidays in the Red Allier...
37  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: August 18, 2011, 11:35:14 am
We have still 5 polls in our database, but in 2 weeks, we'll have only one Tongue.

Yeah, potentially, there will be one week with only one poll... sigh...
(but no risk to have zero poll, as pollsters will be back to business just before September I think)

Don't worry, one poll will be published next Thursday. Not from the best pollster, but...
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: July 28, 2011, 11:47:09 am
It will be atrocious to wait until September... Sad

It seems Ifop will release a poll next tuesday, but I don't know if it will concern the primaries or the presidential election itself.
39  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: July 25, 2011, 07:22:58 am
Mitterrand was actually popular by 1988 (not in 1986, though) and Chirac had decent approvals in 2002. Neither of them had approvals in the low 30s.

Well, according to this graph based on TNS Sofres data, Mitterrand and Chirac were respectively at 57% and 45% in the month of July before the election. Even VGE was above 50%. Sarkozy approval is at 25%.  As Raffarin would say : "La pente est forte".


40  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: July 12, 2011, 09:04:39 am
Meh, until now I've heard neither about Aubry's rumours nor about Hollande's. OK, I barely listen France Inter once every 3 days, but I don't think it monopolizes attention as much.

That's why I think Aubry is overreacting and it may backfire as some people may well search on the Internet, while they weren't aware of this sh** or they didn't bother.
And she clearly uses this, not exactly against the right as everybody says, but to be at the center of the socialist stage again...

It seems that the far-right has launched rumours on her husband being the lawyer of "salafists", on her having a cancer when she punched her own eye, on her being a lesbian (just based on her look I think...).
There is also another rumour which is based on evidence from civil servants who worked in Lille about her addiction to alcohol, probably when she lost the legislative election in 2002. The rest is just usual rumours, this is the only one which can retain the eye: but it may well be a positive rumour if many people find her more humane as she may have had the same problems as them... Tongue

The rumour I find the most hilarious is the one concerning the nickname Sarkozy is supposed to give to Aubry and her husband, 'Martin et Martine", based on a medieval legend including a Moor in the north of France IIUC. Nobody knows about this legend (and certainly not Sarkozy), and I can't believe one second the UMP people are dumb enough to try this way to link Aubry to Muslims. This is too shrewd (1) for them and (2) to work.
41  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: July 11, 2011, 12:27:40 pm
I really hope we'll have other polls before the summer recess, because, otherwise, LH2 will weigh more and more in this tracker until late August...

At last one poll will be released tomorrow or the day after, but it's from BVA, so I don't know if this is exactly a good news.

And there is this one from Ifop (due at 18:00 CEST so this time all is perfectly legal Grin) :

IFOP poll for France-Soir, 30 June-8 July 2011, sample 570 self-declared socialists among 1053 self-declared leftists (btw I don't know how it is possible to find 1053 leftists
among the 1970 people interviewed, but...).

among leftist / among socialists
Aubry 40 (+6) / 41 (+7)
Hollande 38 (+1) / 42 (-1)
Royal 11 (-2) / 9 (-2)
Valls 5 (=) / 4 (=)
Montebourg 4 (=) / 3 (=)
another one - (-1) / - (-1)
none of them 2 (-3) / 1 (-2)
don't know - (-1) / - (-1)

Second round

Hollande 50 (-3) / 53 (-5)
Aubry 50 (+3) / 47 (+5)

It seems all the undecided are trending to Aubry, so it will be a little harder for Hollande to come back. In the first wave (June 30-July 1st) Aubry is way ahead, and in the second (July 7-8) Hollande is back, and strongly back. I don't know if this is an effect of the catastrophic Aubry launching or statistical noise, but since the two samples are about 500 people each, I think this is worth to notice.
42  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: June 30, 2011, 04:07:14 am
I'll be voting for Moscovici in the 1st round if he runs, but I doubt he will. He knows he can't win.

Well, it seems he just endorsed Hollande.
43  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: June 29, 2011, 10:04:05 am
Eva Joly : 49,75%
Nicolas Hulot : 40,22%
Henri Stoll : 5,02%
Stéphane Lhomme : 4,64%

She missed it by 60 votes...
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: June 29, 2011, 03:50:58 am
If it's Joly, it's another good news for socialists.
She'll self-destruct the Greens and won't steal many votes. For the negotiations for seats in parliamentarian elections, this is fine for the PS...
And she'll fire at Sarkozy all the time.

I believe her more ethical than economic agenda will made her very capable to attract all these young urban professional voters who contributed to the successes of EELV in the last European, regional and cantonal elections (see Nantes, Toulouse, Rennes, Lyon, Paris, Grenoble, Angers, Bordeaux, Caen during the cantonal). Sure this is not a very numerous group, but at the end of the day this is one that will more surely solidify around EELV than all those very diverse potential Hulot voters who will go back to where they came from after he lost/withdraw.
45  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: June 28, 2011, 12:05:28 pm
BREAKING in the Green primary:

Eva Joly is "ahead" (no number for the moment) in "paper" votes (2000 counted out of around 10000; 15000 votes are electronic ones).

They say 55% for Joly and only 35% for Hulot (still with 2000 ballots), which is really cool IMO.
46  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: June 28, 2011, 04:09:21 am
BTW, math, we are all glad to have polls very early, but isn't there a problem to publish them here while they are under embargo, as it seems the case with the recent IPSOS and IFOP ones ?

Well, I know, this website is quite confidential, all the more in France Tongue Wink
And it's an American website, so, French laws doesn't apply.
Maybe it's more a business problem than a legal one and, well, it's up to you, as you are an insider, you knwo better Grin.

As Dave isn't here very often (and doesn't bother to read obscure threads Wink), I wondered just because I know he had already some problems for some stuff unduly published here.

Well, you're right concerning the IPSOS poll, I should have been more cautious even if they changed the due date at the last minute. But I'm sure this Ifop survey was not under embargo when I posted it, even if I still cannot find any mention of it on the web (as you I guess). Bad marketing service probably... All these game changer polls drive me wild Grin

Anyway, everybody is centrist nowadays Tongue.
After Villepin, why not Boutin, now ?
The French medias are really awful.

It's not that laughable if they're talking about the potential voters of these candidates instead of their own political positions IMO. When the pollsters ask interviewees to place themselves on a left-right scale, Borloo, Villepin and Hulot or Joly supporters are disproportionately on the central position.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: June 27, 2011, 05:57:28 am
A new Ifop poll (June 21-23rd, sample 937 registered voters):

No real changes since the last wave, but it's interesting to see Joly and Hulot are exactly at the same level, contrary to the above CSA poll. 


With Hollande / Joly

Arthaud 0,5 %
NPA candidate 0,5 %
Mélenchon 7 %
Chevènement 1 %
Hollande 26 %
Joly 6,5 %
Bayrou 6 %
Borloo 7,5 %
Villepin 3 %
Sarkozy 21 %
Dupont Aignan 0,5 %
Le Pen 20,5 % 


With Hollande / Hulot

Arthaud 0,5 % (=)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 6,5 % (+0,5)
Chevènement 1,5 % (=)
Hollande 26,5 %  (+0,5)
Hulot 6,5 % (+0,5)
Bayrou 6 % (-1)
Borloo 7 % (+1)
Villepin 3 % (=)
Sarkozy 21 % (-1)
Dupont Aignan 0 % (-0,5)
Le Pen 21 % (=)

48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: June 22, 2011, 05:19:33 pm
Where is it published ?
I don't see it. Or have you got it from someone inside IPSOS ?

Well, it was first supposed to be published today, but it will be tomorrow. And I clearly think these DSK numbers for Hollande and Aubry will be the standards in the next months polls: people don't really vote for a socialist candidate, but mainly against Sarkozy.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: June 22, 2011, 10:20:10 am
No new poll, again ? Sad

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week ! Angry

Don't worry, there will be one from CSA and one from Ipsos by the end of the week.

Seems I was right.

A new poll made by Ipsos (June 18-19th, sample 965 registered voters):

No second rounds tested.


With Hollande

Arthaud 1,5 % (-0,5)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 7 % (+3)
Hollande 32 % (+4)
Hulot 7,5 % (-3,5)
Bayrou 5 % (=)
Borloo 7 % (-2)
Villepin 3 % (=)
Sarkozy 19 % (=)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 17 % (=)

Turnout : 89 %


With Aubry 

Arthaud 1 % (=)
NPA candidate 0,5 % (=)
Mélenchon 7 % (+3)
Aubry 30 % (+3)
Hulot 7 % (-4)
Bayrou 5 % (=)
Borloo 8 % (=)
Villepin 4 % (=)
Sarkozy 19 % (-2)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 18 % (+1)

Turnout : 88 %


With Royal 

Arthaud 2 % (=)
NPA candidate 1 % (+ 0,5)
Mélenchon 9,5 % (+3,5)
Royal 19 % (+3)
Hulot 8,5 % (-4,5)
Bayrou 7 % (=)
Borloo 11% (-1)
Villepin 4,5 % (-1,5)
Sarkozy 19 % (=)
Dupont Aignan 0,5 % (=)
Le Pen 18 % (=)

Turnout : 86 %

50  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2012: the official thread on: June 22, 2011, 02:49:01 am
No new poll, again ? Sad

These idiots started polling the race 3 years before and now they aren't even able to give us a damn poll per week ! Angry

Don't worry, there will be one from CSA and one from Ipsos by the end of the week.
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