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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate proposes massive military spending & passes a 700 B Defense budget on: September 19, 2017, 02:40:54 pm
VirginiaModerate,

Not that it is relevant, but I was in the AF for four years.

Your argument is based on a false premise, that we need to spend that money, and we don't.

Your chart lists four wars, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. How many of those wars have we won?

The other problem with your argument is that we can't afford to spend more on the military.
How are we going to pay for it? Not with tax cuts.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate proposes massive military spending & passes a 700 B Defense budget on: September 19, 2017, 12:29:08 pm
Clearly, anyone who is appalled at this or Trump's election knows that we are living in fantasyland and it can be explained by the last 500 years:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBg5c8Luybk
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NJ and VA governor races? on: September 19, 2017, 11:00:57 am
The governor of NJ will appoint a replacement for Menendez if he is kicked out of the Senate:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/#item-8
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate proposes massive military spending & passes a 700 B Defense budget on: September 19, 2017, 10:54:29 am
First this. Next tax cuts. <sarcasm> Makes a lot of sense, right?
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senate proposes massive military spending & passes a 700 B Defense budget on: September 19, 2017, 09:40:48 am
If the US spent half this it would still be spending more than any other nation.

This vote is insanity. There is no doubt about that.

Both parties should be ashamed of themselves.
6  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: If science someday brings Eternal Life/Resurrection, what about Christianity? on: September 18, 2017, 09:16:32 am
What if they aren't in suffering anymore?

This is an excellent topic, and I thank you for it, but there are at least two remaining problems:
those who have already died and would we ever know that science has brought about eternal life? You can't know that you will live forever until you have lived forever... a paradox perhaps.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: President Pence vs. Bernie Sanders on: September 13, 2017, 02:22:16 pm
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chances of all Clinton states voting Dem again in 2020? on: September 12, 2017, 02:12:32 pm
WI before PA?

It's possible, but they are about equal, I think.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Do you think that the Democrats will win the Senate in 2018? on: September 12, 2017, 10:48:55 am
The best case scenario would probably be 50-50 with Pence having 1/2 a vote.
I wouldn't bet on it, however.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Do you think that the Democrats will win the Senate in 2018? on: September 12, 2017, 10:35:54 am
no
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Do you think the Democrats will win the House in 2018? on: September 12, 2017, 10:34:16 am
no
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chances of all Clinton states voting Dem again in 2020? on: September 12, 2017, 10:30:11 am
I would say at least 60%.

13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Most likely to flip to Democrat on: September 12, 2017, 07:42:18 am
To be fair and balanced here is Trump's best case:



D 211
R 327
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Most likely to flip to Democrat on: September 12, 2017, 07:38:21 am
D 352
R 185
tossup 1

This may be the best case scenario for the Democrats.
(TX will be interesting to watch, since it has 38 electoral votes which is what Clinton would have needed, exactly)

15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Most likely to flip to Democrat on: September 12, 2017, 07:30:40 am
D 270
R 268



This is an alternate map where AZ & WI are the critical states, combined having one more electoral vote than PA. That one electoral vote would be the tipping one.

What is interesting about the map, even if it isn't very plausible, is that the D wins without the three large and critical states, PA, OH & FL.


Although I didn't include AZ on my op map, it certainly should be considered a battleground.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Where are you on the "political map"? on: September 11, 2017, 01:42:57 pm
Center (or very close, your call)

Only if you are on one of the four lines:
Left (=west)
Right (=east)
Authoritarian (=north)
Libertarian (=south)

I am SW.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Most likely to flip to Democrat on: September 11, 2017, 12:52:29 pm
NC and AZ likely flip before IA and OH.

I didn't include AZ because I still think it leans R, but then again maybe IA & OH also
lean R (in another very close election, anyway).
I decided only to include the Obama 2008 states (minus, of course, IN)

AZ could flip but WI, FL and possibly NC would be more likely to flip.
This could change easily, however, in three years from now.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Most likely to flip to Democrat on: September 11, 2017, 12:40:31 pm


The map suggests PA&MI&ME-2 will flip from '16.

This map assumes no more than 269 for R. If you think R(Trump or other R) will win
vote other. Also other if you think Trump will lose but think that the one electoral vote
needed will come elsewhere.

My vote goes to WI, although FL could be the next likely possibility.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which of these television networks are "fair and balanced"? on: September 08, 2017, 10:10:01 pm
Zero votes (so far) for the "fair and balanced" network. Smiley
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Which of these television networks are "fair and balanced"? on: September 08, 2017, 09:27:16 pm
None of the above. Although being 100% objective is an unreachable goal.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1 In 10 Sanders Primary Voters Ended Up Supporting Trump, Survey Finds on: September 05, 2017, 02:02:16 pm
I thought it would be worse, and it probably would be if Bernie-backers who stayed home were counted in this survey.  So many Republicans who weren't happy about Trump held their noses and voted for him anyway, but too many Bernie bros couldn't do the same for Clinton.

There is something that Democrats need to learn from Republicans: Party unity.

34% of Kasich voters apparently went to Hillary, try again.

So?  What percentage of the Republican electorate consisted of Kasich voters?
Actually,
I  believe that it was the independents that decided the election and many of those who voted in open primaries did vote for Sanders.
Some voted for Kasich, but not as many as those who voted for Sanders. At least that would be my guess.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1 In 10 Sanders Primary Voters Ended Up Supporting Trump, Survey Finds on: September 05, 2017, 01:01:01 pm
As far as the GOP goes, the anti-Trump Republicans blew it, honestly. They should have united early, in favor of one candidate.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 1 In 10 Sanders Primary Voters Ended Up Supporting Trump, Survey Finds on: September 05, 2017, 12:58:43 pm
I thought it would be worse, and it probably would be if Bernie-backers who stayed home were counted in this survey.  So many Republicans who weren't happy about Trump held their noses and voted for him anyway, but too many Bernie bros couldn't do the same for Clinton.

There is something that Democrats need to learn from Republicans: Party unity.

Yes, and both sides continuing to blame each other doesn't help.
Also, the popular vote doesn't matter. Clinton won it, but did not win a majority.
It is possible, but rare, to win a majority of the popular vote and still lose the electoral college.
People living in safe states shouldn't feel compelled to vote for the lesser of two evils.
This is why we need something like IRV.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which issues should Democrats FOCUS on the most? on: August 30, 2017, 02:05:14 pm
Voting reform is strategically important. The more people that vote, the more legitimacy the winning candidates have. Of course, I think FPTP is a bad way to elect candidates. There are a number of issues that fall into this category.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which issues should Democrats FOCUS on the most? on: August 30, 2017, 02:01:10 pm
The Iraq war is still a big issue for me. I think nominating Biden would be a huge mistake.
Wars are costly, so there is a lot of overlap between this issue and economics.

I think that being anti-war can only help the Democrats, because people are tired of war and want a break from it.
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