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September 25, 2016, 03:53:06 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win the first debate? on: Today at 03:37:41 pm
A win would be indicated by a big change in the polls. Otherwise, nobody really wins.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which map would you chose? on: Today at 03:17:06 pm
clarification if it's not obvious:
which is the most likely map?
my guess is map 4

If you want to vote for one of my maps, you can still post your own
The point is which of the eight is most likely, but there are many more maps, obviously, and as the TV series title says "Eight is Enough"
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Which map would you chose? on: Today at 03:13:25 pm
flips based on 2012

1> same



2> add NC




3> add NC & AZ



4> subtract IA



5> subtract IA, OH & FL





6> subtract IA, OH, FL & NV





7> subtract IA, OH, FL & CO



8> Trump win)
subtract IA, OH, FL, CO, & NV



4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: This Pennsylvania thing... on: Today at 02:47:22 pm
The real concern of the GOP should be FL, because that state could trend more and more D and create a lock on the electoral college for Ds. Clinton could easily win the state this year as Obama did in 2012 and 2008. It could also make PA less and less important with a net difference of nine electoral votes.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: This Pennsylvania thing... on: Today at 02:43:59 pm
It won't be the tipping point state. Candidates should focus more on CO or even NV either of which could be the tipping point state. (more likely CO than NV) Even VA is more likely to be the tipping point state no matter what the "experts" are saying. I don't think that it is trending Republican at all. Although it is closer than many states and is regarded as a swing state, the focus should be elsewhere. Of course, that doesn't mean that Clinton should ignore it and she won't and that's why it isn't likely to matter as much as people seem to think that it will.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: Today at 01:54:15 pm
Or maybe Clinton can offset any losses in ME with one electoral vote in NE, although I doubt that that will happen. If she wins one in NE she gets all four from ME.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: Today at 01:52:34 pm
By the way, if the 273-265 model is correct Clinton only needs one electoral vote from Maine, and if Trump were to win all four (no way it would happen in a razor thin election) the election would be 269-269.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: Today at 01:45:24 pm
jaichind, yes you could be right about Trump's chances being lower than he says, based on what we know, but Silver could end up being close because of the fact that things are likely to change. However, since his model is only based on what we know today he is mistaken to give Trump such high odds overall. I think Clinton certainly has a greater than 33% chance in IA, although as I have said it could be less than 59%.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: Today at 01:33:10 pm
I don't agree with his odds in swing states and if they are correct then Clinton has a much better chance of winning than he says she does.  Today's map agrees with the overall consensus 273-265 and if her chances are as high in states like PA, VA, CO and NH as he says they are she has more than a 58.1% chance of winning. NH is more likely to go Clinton than CO or VA and PA has a better chance than VA. I do think he's right about the overall odds, although they may be even better, unless, as could happen, Trump improves in the next few weeks,  he could even be tied or ahead, which so far hasn't happened yet. NV, FL and other states are closer to 50-50. IA an AZ should be higher. Overall he might be close, but some states are off. IA is the worst prediction although Trump may be above 50% and he could certainly win there, even though it has been pretty reliable for Dems (except, of course 2004).

edit, however all predictions are open to debate because this election is very unpredictable (IA being a good example, because Clinton could still win there). He might be right about NV being the closest, however. Clinton could surprise him. She can still win AZ, NC and IA although she would have to bounce back a little before 11/8. Trump can still win, but only in a razor thin election, at least that's how it looks now. I don't think that he'll win PA, however, as some people seem to think.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Trump map is interesting. on: September 22, 2016, 01:29:39 pm
Master Jedi, you might be right of course, and currently it looks hard for Clinton to lose, but Trump could easily win if he continues to rise in the polls. I am not saying that it will happen, or is likely to happen, but it might and who really knows? If the state of race is similar on Nov 8 as it is today, it would be hard for Trump to win all the swing states (especially CO, NV & FL), but that assumes that he won't be able to continue to close the gap and actually win those states. My point is that this election might end up being closer than it currently looks and certainly it looks better now for Trump than it did earlier in the race. It depends on how things go in the next few weeks.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Trump map is interesting. on: September 22, 2016, 01:25:12 pm
NBC news gives Clinton a 6% lead in national polls, which could be good news for her. However, can we rely just on them? It is higher than any other poll.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Trump map is interesting. on: September 22, 2016, 01:21:03 pm

looks like it's just based on whatever the most recent poll is, many of dubious quality.
True, but it isn't that different from the map on this site. I tend to think NBC polls are the best and we need more of them. I assume that, although I could be wrong, because of the sample size. Certainly there are bad polls. (I don't trust Rasmusen, IPSOS or Fox too much, for example)
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Trump map is interesting. on: September 22, 2016, 01:15:28 pm
I don't think many people realize how hard it will be for Clinton to lose. She can lose OH, FL, IA and NV and still win.



I imagine by the end NV and ME-02 will be won by her and should could knock off a EV in NE. It will be hard for her to lose in the end when she doesn't need to win most of the swing states.
She could also win FL. Your map is good, but there is a slim chance she could lose CO and NV if she does poorly in the debates.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If, as in 2000 and 2004, this election comes down to one state... on: September 22, 2016, 01:10:53 pm
This may be Trump's only hope of winning:

274-264
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If, as in 2000 and 2004, this election comes down to one state... on: September 22, 2016, 01:07:41 pm
Of course, since there is no certainty of FL, CO is important. Assuming Clinton were to win PA, WI, VA, and NH she would win with CO (273-265)
Or flip CO & WI on my previous map and she wins 272-266.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If, as in 2000 and 2004, this election comes down to one state... on: September 22, 2016, 01:05:14 pm
Clinton wins without PA if she can win FL, NH & VA (all quite possible):



273-265
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If, as in 2000 and 2004, this election comes down to one state... on: September 22, 2016, 01:00:16 pm
Tossup between NV, FL, & CO. No way PA could be the tipping point state. There is no reason to think that it would be. If Trump wins PA he wins anyway, so I am not saying he won't carry the state, but he won't if the election is close or favors Clinton. Why on earth would anyone think PA would be close? I don't get it. (anyway I voted FL but it could just as easily be NV or CO).

Do you all think Clinton is stupid enough to let Trump win. She could and Trump could easily win PA and lose the election because of OH & FL which would both offset a loss in PA, although the 2 electoral vote difference between OH & PA might make a difference in a close election.
However OH seems to be trending a little towards Trump so FL becomes very important to offset a possible loss in PA. I know that both Trump & Clinton are running ads here, of course, although I haven't been spending much time watching TV at all or the news especially.

Clinton would win without any of the swing states on the following map:




271-267
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Trump map is interesting. on: September 22, 2016, 08:46:49 am
Florida could play the same role as it played in 2000 and be a "must win" for either Clinton or Trump.

Clinton might need the state if she loses both CO and NV (although she isn't leading in either of those states they are at the very least tossups). To win without FL Trump would need all three grey states which is highly unlikely, if hypothetically possible:



Clinton 266 Trump 245 Tossup 27 (WI is unlikely for Trump as is NH)
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Trump map is interesting. on: September 21, 2016, 01:18:36 pm
What polls did you use for this?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Sep21.html
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of 2 major third parties? on: September 21, 2016, 08:38:30 am
Very unfavorable opinion of the Dems and Repubs. Favorable of Libertarians, because they offer an alternative to the status quo and of course the Greens most favorable.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Trump map is interesting. on: September 21, 2016, 08:25:08 am
Can either of them get over 50% in national popular vote? If not, it indicates a divided electorate and very unhappy voters.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Clinton Trump map is interesting. on: September 21, 2016, 08:24:09 am
The state polls that show them with 50% or more:

23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Clinton turn this around? on: September 16, 2016, 02:16:12 pm
Run a positive campaign, show that she has fully recovered from pneumonia (spin it as a comeback story), keep any attacks directed at Trump and not his supporters, and do very well in the debates. Considering the week she's had, it shouldn't be that surprising that her numbers have dropped. Yes, she has work to do, but people assuming that she can't recover are overreacting.
I wouldn't assume that she can't, but I am not going to assume that she is "inevitable", either.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How does Clinton turn this around? on: September 16, 2016, 02:01:40 pm
Stop talking and hope the media focuses on Trump the rest of the cycle, she needs to realize that she isn't likable and her major policy and anti alt right speeches are just making it worse, if she shuts up and let's Donnie control the coverage she wins
Interesting. It may sound strange, but it makes sense, sort of. The point is I don't know what else she can say that will help her. I don't know if she will do well in any of the debates.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / How does Clinton turn this around? on: September 16, 2016, 01:56:46 pm
Trump is rising. Clinton is falling. She still has a thin tenuous lead, but there is plenty of time left, since the two have not even debated yet. Trump's odds have gone from about 2% to nearly 50% and if the polls continue trending Trump, then his odds will be greater than 50%.
Trump can do or say anything in the general just like in the primaries. Any negative adds Clinton runs only tell us what we already know about Trump.

Things could change, and they could change in her favor.. but why would they? I can't think of anything that she could do or say that would be a game change. Not long ago it seemed that she was inevitable. It seemed that there was no way Trump could close the gap. It seemed like Mission Impossible for Trump, in spite of the fact that he won the primaries when nobody expected him to. Why should Clinton supporters have any reason to believe that she can turn this around? If nothing changes it will be a close race with a narrow lead for Clinton.
There is no reason to believe that today's polls reflect tomorrow's realities since they have been bouncing up and down. The third party factor is real.

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