Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 31, 2016, 09:13:11 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 130
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump v Clinton would win on: May 25, 2016, 11:07:46 pm


If this is the map for a close election, all Clinton would need to do is flip just one of the swing states or flip both CO & IA. This assumes she creates this 257 firewall, which may be likely but isn't certain. She may need to at least defend one of the states in the hypothetical firewall in this map.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump v Clinton would win on: May 25, 2016, 11:01:17 pm
Hillary will win with the Obama 2012+ AZ
If she wins AZ would she win NC?
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump v Clinton would win on: May 25, 2016, 10:57:02 pm
Interesting that the spread in this poll is not that big. Could this actually turn out to be a close election or a Trump victory? Scary thought. Sad
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which states could Trump flip? on: May 25, 2016, 10:55:28 pm
"Could" is a weak word.  What's our threshold of probability here?

Because this is such a bonkers election, the only state on this list I'd bet $1000 on Clinton winning is NY.
If you need a number make it a 3% margin in the national popular vote, a relatively close election. Certainly he could win NY if he wins by a 9% national margin.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which states could Trump flip? on: May 25, 2016, 10:07:00 am
As far as so called "strategic voting" goes, if you live in Texas and really don't want to vote Democratic or Republican is there any logical reason to vote for "the lesser of two evils"? The only argument that could be made is that third parties are "a wasted vote and you are better off staying home". I am curious how well third parties will do in "safe states". Perot's top states in 1992 were:

1 Maine D
2 Alaska R
3 Utah R
4 Idaho R
5 Kansas R
6 Nevada D
7 Montana D
8 Wyoming R
9 Oregon D
He received over 24% in all of them
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which states could Trump flip? on: May 25, 2016, 09:37:46 am
  The shaded states are not states that I think will flip but that others think could. All the other blue and red states are at 50% shade because I am not predicting percentages.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which states could Trump flip? on: May 25, 2016, 09:26:40 am
If the election is close, I think Clinton would likely win NV, but I think it is the most likely of the states listed to flip.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which states could Trump flip? on: May 25, 2016, 09:21:36 am
I forgot PA. I say no to PA. You can write in PA if you want. I was focusing on lean or safe Clinton states that some people think could flip.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Which states could Trump flip? on: May 25, 2016, 09:18:49 am
If Clinton wins the nomination.
I say no to all except NV yes and NH undecided.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump v Clinton would win on: May 25, 2016, 09:06:02 am
The title of the thread was meant to be "who would win" not "would win"
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump v Clinton would win on: May 25, 2016, 09:02:53 am
If it's Trump v Clinton and we assume that one of them win, ignoring other scenarios, pick one.

Until recently Trump didn't seem to have much of a chance. He may be close in the national polls, but state polls are what really matters. Florida is close.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your reaction if Sanders says this after DC? on: May 24, 2016, 11:34:22 am
It seems that the effect of Sanders overall is to move the Democratic party to a more truly progressive party. MORE FOR PEACE although there are other issues. It has been moving away from FDR who supported Glass Steagal and many other "radical" programs. The establishment is now being led by Clinton and they are all about keeping the status quo. That wing of the party is offering a saner choice that the extremely far right but the embrace such people as Joe Lieberman, Arlen Specter, and Robert Casey to name a few more "Republican like" Democrats. The fact that so many politicians have endorsed Clinton while fewer have endorsed nobody, and fewer than that have endorsed Sanders proves that the establishment Democrats are by no means a liberal or progressive.

If Sanders wanted to he could endorse Stein in states like Texas where Clinton is not going to win and therefore it wouldn't hurt Clinton in her attempt to defeat Trump. I think that he will do what he said he would do.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Sanders, Clinton or Trump on: May 23, 2016, 05:03:09 pm
Although Sanders seems to have peeked in national polls trailing Clinton by a razor thin margin, Clinton is falling like a rock in polls against Trump and Trump could have as much as a 50% chance of beating her, if not more. Sanders could beat Trump, he might be the only way to stop a Trump presidency. Is there any chance that enough voters will realize this before it's too late?
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: If the parties had to legally rename theirselves an insult from the other party on: May 19, 2016, 06:17:52 pm
Democrats get named the Communist Party, Republicans get named the Nazi Party.
Haha, do you think Clinton is a Commie?
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: In which country is there more respect for freedom? USA or Norway? on: May 19, 2016, 06:14:15 pm
Is Norway one of those socialist countries where they have universal healthcare and other so called "unAmerican" things? Is it a country that doesn't start pre-emptive wars against countries like Iraq?
Just wondering. Not that that has anything to do with your question. It's just that some Clinton supporters keep saying things like we don't want to be like those socialist European countries and support a "commie" like Bernie Sanders.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of this link: lesser of two evils on: May 19, 2016, 06:04:14 pm
Two words: Electoral college. As long presidential elections are conducted through that system, there will only be two viable parties that are competitive at the national level. Of course, becasue of that very same system people in safe states don't have to worry about voting for third parties, since voting for the other major party won't make a difference anyway.
Good point. The vast majority of people don't even need to worry about voting third party because they live in safe states. When the election isn't going to be close, nobody does.
Most people don't seem to understand this.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is it weird the Libertarian ticket has more political experience than the GOP? on: May 19, 2016, 05:53:32 pm
I voted no, because weird is not the right word. It is not the norm, but that doesn't make it weird.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is it weird the Libertarian ticket has more political experience than the GOP? on: May 19, 2016, 05:41:56 pm
The Green party has a good platform. The reason that they don't have experience is a catch 22.

They don't have experience because they don't get elected. The reason they don't get elected is they don't have experience. Jill Stein is certainly a good candidate, of course.

Obama didn't have a lot of experience when he became president, either. Don't forget that. Sanders has been in the Senate longer than either Obama or Clinton.

19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of this link: lesser of two evils on: May 19, 2016, 05:38:02 pm
Maybe not the world's greatest argument, but I agree with it's title that the idea that we must choose the lesser of two evils is a myth.

The real point behind the poll is to see if people want to argue the thesis that voting for the lesser of two evils is not a good idea.
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Opinion of this link: lesser of two evils on: May 19, 2016, 05:36:20 pm
https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2012/10/05/the-fallacy-of-voting-for-the-lesser-of-two-evils/

I'll go with "freedom essay"

Note you have unlimited options and are not being forced in this poll to choose the lesser of two evils which in itself disproves the "I must choose the lesser of two evils" myth
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could the Sandernistas hand Donald Trump the White House? on: May 19, 2016, 04:33:58 pm
Does this sound like a man who wants to help elect Trump:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpRaFW31Uqg
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could the Sandernistas hand Donald Trump the White House? on: May 19, 2016, 04:16:03 pm
There is an obvious difference between those who vote for Sanders and those who actually support him.
A lot of Trump supporters who are Democrats voted for Sanders simply because they don't like Clinton. They are actually Trump supporters because they would vote for Trump no matter who his opponent is.
Do you really want to call them Sanders supporters?
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is disliking a state just as bad as disliking a race? on: May 19, 2016, 04:09:18 pm
I tend to like states that are warmer. For example Pennsylvania lately has been too cold in the winter for some reason. States out west have mountains and less humidity. As far as race goes there is only one race, the human race. Why divide it over a superficial reason like skin color or ethnic background?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could the Sandernistas hand Donald Trump the White House? on: May 19, 2016, 03:39:30 pm
By the way, anyone who can't see the difference between Sanders and Trump is clueless. That may include Sanders supporters, but very few. Sanders message is that he is the better person to defeat Trump, he has been making that argument for a while. Clinton supporters may not agree with that, but that doesn't make Sanders supporters evil.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could the Sandernistas hand Donald Trump the White House? on: May 19, 2016, 03:35:43 pm
The point is that being nasty to someone just because they support Sanders is a pretty odd way to try to win them over to supporting Clinton in the fall.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 130


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines