Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 17, 2014, 04:31:23 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 102
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 16, 2014, 03:17:40 pm
having a government that only represents 36-37% of voters (less than what an Alliance government would represent) is a pretty unfortunate situation.

Come to canada where we have a dictatorial Conservative majority government that only 39% of the electorate voted for...Margaret Thatcher never won more than 42% of the vote in the UK and it never stopped her from ramming her policies down everyone's throats.

Yes, but there's a big difference between a PR and FPTP system. Thatcher always had a majority of MPs, and Harper had a decent plurality of MPs. The government Löfvén is proposing would have less support in parliament than the main political alternative. I have a hard time seeing Thatcher holding on if Labour had more MPs than her, and Harper holding on if the Liberals had been bigger.

Not that it will be impossible. We should remember that Sweden had a government representing only 11% of the voters, only 35 years ago, and that was before the simplified budget rules that make it easier for minority governments to hold on.


I've always wondered how 'minority governments' run. Do bills and budgets need less than 50% of the vote or do they rely on opposition support on a case-by-case basis?
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: God Save the Queen on: September 16, 2014, 03:10:13 pm
Independence.

Death to all monarchies everywhere. Disgusting parasitic filth and nothing more.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which Pat Quinn accomplishment is your personal favorite? on: September 15, 2014, 09:52:56 pm
Medicaid expansion and same-day voter registration
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cuomo v. Teachout on: September 09, 2014, 07:15:20 pm
semi-related question: in states with a closed primary is the turnout figure still based on the number of all registered voters or is it the number of people registered in the party?

The statewide figure is based on all registered voters in Oregon (which has closed primaries): http://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/Voter-Turnout-History-Primary.pdf

You could argue the number is still inflated though considering it's based off of registered voters. A good quarter or even a third of eligible voters in some states aren't even registered to vote.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Police take hundreds of millions of $s from motorists not charged with crimes on: September 09, 2014, 06:42:19 pm
Quite a lucrative system they've managed to set up for themselves: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/09/08/civil-asset-forfeitures-more-than-double-under-obama/

Quote
An ongoing investigative series by the Post sheds light on a law enforcement practice known as civil asset forfeiture, in which officials can seize cash or goods from a person suspected of a crime, even if no charges are ever brought against that person. Since 2001, police have seized $2.5 billion in cash from people who were never charged with a crime.

Quote
While many factors likely contribute to the increase, one major component is the rise in post-2001 "stop and seize" traffic stops documented in the Post article.

The Post piece notes that under civil asset forfeiture laws, the burden of proof is on the owner of the assets to show that they are not related to a crime by a legal standard known as preponderance of the evidence. In essence, you're considered guilty until proven innocent.

...

Previous attempts at reform have largely been stymied due to intense lobbying from law enforcement groups, for whom asset forfeiture can be a significant source of revenue.
6  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Government social program for low income families regarding automobiles on: September 07, 2014, 12:19:42 am
What about people who live in rural areas?

Subsidies for solar panels can mean free 'gas' when we consider electric vehicles. Both of these things are decreasing in price too (though they're obviously still too expensive at the moment). I could see that as a pretty progressive proposal in the future; saving households thousands of dollars a year by eliminating their electric utility bills and transportation-fuel costs.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Police take hundreds of millions of $s from motorists not charged with crimes on: September 06, 2014, 11:52:19 pm
Quote
September 6, 2014

After the terror attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, the government called on police to become the eyes and ears of homeland security on America’s highways. Local officers, county deputies and state troopers were encouraged to act more aggressively in searching for suspicious people, drugs and other contraband. The departments of Homeland Security and Justice spent millions on police training

The effort succeeded, but it had an impact that has been largely hidden from public view: the spread of an aggressive brand of policing that has spurred the seizure of hundreds of millions of dollars in cash from motorists and others not charged with crimes, a Washington Post investigation found. Thousands of people have been forced to fight legal battles that can last more than a year to get their money back.

Quote
There have been 61,998 cash seizures made on highways and elsewhere since 9/11 without search warrants or indictments through the Equitable Sharing Program, totaling more than $2.5 billion. State and local authorities kept more than $1.7 billion of that while Justice, Homeland Security and other federal agencies received $800 million.

...

Hundreds of state and local departments and drug task forces appear to rely on seized cash, despite a federal ban on the money to pay salaries or otherwise support budgets. The Post found that 298 departments and 210 task forces have seized the equivalent of 20 percent or more of their annual budgets since 2008.

Read more at http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/investigative/2014/09/06/stop-and-seize/
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Robert Morris University (PA): Wolf leads by 31 on: September 03, 2014, 12:57:35 am
^ Isn't it true that the 2012 state legislative elections didn't even take place under the new maps?

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

http://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_State_Senate_elections,_2012#Impact_of_redistricting

Quote
The Pennsylvania Legislative Reapportionment Commission approved its final compromise maps on April 12, 2012, following the rejection of the first set by the state Supreme Court. Because they were passed after the signature filing deadline, the 2012 elections were held using the old maps with the new maps going into effect for the 2014 elections.[3]

Do we know if these new maps are more or less gerrymandered than the old ones?
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Presidential vs. Parliamentary systems on: August 30, 2014, 01:48:45 am
Someone care to explain what a semi-presidential system is?

The President, who is the head of state, appoints the Prime Minister (and can't dismiss him), who is the Head of Government. So the two roles are distributed between the two offices.

Is there such a thing as a parliamentary system with a Prime Minister (head of government) who is also the head of state? A parliamentary system with just a PM and no additional/separate Monarch or President is what I mean.
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Oregon Measure 91 on: August 30, 2014, 01:35:42 am
I think it will pass but I wonder what % this measure will get.

In 2010 a measure to legalize medical marijuana dispensaries was defeated 44%-56%. Then 2012's legalization initiative which was relatively permissive lost ~47%-53% while the Colorado and Washington initiatives passed about 55%-45%.

Public opinion has been shifting in favor of legalization but 2014 will be a mid-term election like 2010 (lower turnout over all, proportionally older, etc).
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: St Louis police murder scandal (PLUS: riots, idiotic press conferences, etc.) on: August 30, 2014, 01:18:59 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/27/opinion/thomas-edsall-the-expanding-world-of-poverty-capitalism.html
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should Colorado have to pay for neighboring state's marijuana prohibition? on: August 22, 2014, 05:59:23 pm
Of course not. Kansas and other states need to change their corrupt laws to stop the incarceration. 14% of the U.S. population uses marijuana every year; should these people be arrested? Current laws, ones that the police have no problem enforcing and ardently defending because it feeds their budgets, mostly say yes:

http://blog.norml.org/2014/07/30/study-arrests-for-marijuana-offenses-increasing-in-many-states/

Quote
Law enforcement in many states are making a greater number of marijuana arrests than ever before despite polling data showing that the majority of Americans believe that the adult use of the plant ought to be legal.

According to a just published report, “Marijuana in the States 2012: Analysis and Detailed Data on Marijuana Use and Arrests,” which appears on the newly launched RegulatingCannabis.com website, police made an estimated 750,000 arrests for marijuana violations in 2012 – a 110 percent increase in annual arrests since 1991.

http://norml.org/pdf_files/JBG_Marijuana_in_the_States_2012.pdf

Quote
There were 749,825 arrests for marijuana offenses in the United States in 2012. Marijuana
possession arrests accounted for 88% of all arrests (658,231) and the remainder for sales
offenses.

...

In 2012 the NSDUH estimated that there were 31.8 million Americans who used marijuana at
least on an annual basis and 18 million who used marijuana monthly.

...

After more than 19 million arrests since 1981 marijuana is widely used, not perceived as a great
risk by a majority of the population, and widely available.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McConnell describes the horror that will ensue if the GOP takes the Senate on: August 21, 2014, 03:13:07 pm
Quote
The emerging strategy: Attach riders to spending bills that would limit Obama policies on everything from the environment to health care, consider using an arcane budget tactic to circumvent Democratic filibusters and force the president to “move to the center” if he wants to get any new legislation through Congress.

I thought they'd move to abolish the filibuster for legislation after Democrats weakened it with a simple majority last year?

That was only for non-SCOTUS administrative and judicial appointments. It was tactical nuclear warfare more used to destroy formations of soldiers and ships than continents.

Right but it established (recent) precedent to majorly weaken the filibuster with a simple majority vote rather than 3/5s or 2/3s: http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/191255-filibuster-reform-could-have-rippling-effect

Quote
November 23, 2013

The longer-term implications are much less certain. Many senators on both sides of the aisle have been reluctant to dabble with minority powers, cognizant of the political tides that cyclically alter which party controls the chamber.

But others have pushed hard for a more sweeping elimination of the filibuster, to include legislation and Supreme Court picks. And Republicans, who unanimously opposed the Democrats' rule change, are now suggesting that the momentum has shifted in that direction.

Quote
Indeed, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) this week seemed to endorse the notion of McConnell eliminating the filibuster in legislative fights. He argued that the Senate fared fine in the many decades before the filibuster was used on a regular basis.

"Let him do it," Reid said Thursday. "The country did pretty damned well for 140 years. So, I think we're beyond seeing who can out-talk the other. Let's just get some work done on the Senate floor. Let him do whatever he wants to."

Some Senate Democrats – notably Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Tom Udall (D-N.M.) – have urged Reid to take that step himself, though it's not clear he could have passed such a change in the current political environment.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: McConnell describes the horror that will ensue if the GOP takes the Senate on: August 21, 2014, 04:02:14 am
Quote
The emerging strategy: Attach riders to spending bills that would limit Obama policies on everything from the environment to health care, consider using an arcane budget tactic to circumvent Democratic filibusters and force the president to “move to the center” if he wants to get any new legislation through Congress.

I thought they'd move to abolish the filibuster for legislation after Democrats weakened it with a simple majority last year?
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Durbin: prisons are great job-creators, the key to our economic future on: August 21, 2014, 03:39:32 am
A truly cancerous 'industry'
16  General Politics / Economics / Re: Hawaii most expensive state to live, Mississippi cheapest on: August 21, 2014, 03:25:38 am
They published the metro-area version of the map today: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/08/20/map-how-much-100-is-really-worth-in-hundreds-of-metropolitan-areas/
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Illinois? on: August 15, 2014, 03:36:55 pm
Quinn.
As long as he does not do too poorly in rural areas, he will win just by dominating Chicago.

There's no significant third party this year. How does Quinn improve his percent from 2010 and keep Rauner from matching Kirk? If Quinn can't do that, he has to find some new pocket of votes outside of Chicago.

If there are no third-party candidates on the ballot, it's not like 100% of those votes would go to Rauner; the Green candidate got ~10% in 2006 and ~3% in 2010. Plus Illinois will have same-day registration for the first time this year so turn-out could be higher than expected.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: AR-PPP: All Pubs lead Clinton on: August 10, 2014, 01:05:02 am
Arizona margin relative to national margin

1960: R+11.32
1964: R+23.57
1968: R+19.06
1972: R+8.11
1976: R+18.63
1980: R+22.62
1984: R+15.66
1988: R+13.48
1992: R+7.51
1996: R+6.30
2000: R+6.80
2004: R+7.99
2008: R+15.74
2012: R+12.90


Arizona population, % non-hispanic white:
1960 - 1.3m, (no data but probably within 74-77%)
1970 - 1.8m, 74%
1980 - 2.7m, 75%
1990 - 3.7m, 72%
2000 - 5.1m, 64%
2010 - 6.4m, 58%
2020? - 7.2m, 52%

I don't see how Arizona stays so Republican in the future. It's very likely going to have a relative shift like we've seen in other southwest states (CA, NV, CO, NM).
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cannabis '14: The WA & CO Memorial Thread on: August 07, 2014, 07:44:50 pm
SurveyUSA (Oregon):

Quote
First, on the topic of recreational marijuana, there are three separate measures on the ballot. While each is different, in general, they would allow adults to use, possess, and grow marijuana for their own personal use, while allowing the state to regulate and tax the marijuana. In general, do you support? Or oppose? Allowing adults to use, possess and grow marijuana for their personal use, while allowing the state to regulate and tax marijuana?

Haven't they been following the news? Tongue

Two of those three marijuana initiatives didn't have enough signatures to make the ballot. It's only the NAO initiative that made it. I don't think that initiative 10 they polled made it either.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: OR: SUSA: Kitzhaber (D) up 12, near 50% on: August 07, 2014, 07:40:37 pm
The polls are looking like Merkley will have a larger margin of victory than Kitzhaber. I thought it would be the opposite.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2014: Out of the World Cup, but life goes on.... on: August 07, 2014, 07:26:06 pm

On the bright side, Senate reform is about to pass! Smiley Final vote probably tonight or tomorrow.

Ok I think I finally found a source that explained the process.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-06/renzi-to-test-senate-resistance-on-plans-to-remake-italian-state.html

Quote
The path to approval will be a long one for Renzi’s Senate overhaul, even if the upper house votes in favor this week. Approval by the Chamber of Deputies must follow, before the bill makes a second run through both houses, according to the protocol for changes to the constitution. A referendum would then be required to ratify the measures, unless parliamentary approval comes with a two-thirds majority.

So that earlier vote of 194-126 (60.6%) basically guarantees there will be a referendum because there won't be a two-thirds supermajority on the floor vote, right?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cannabis '14: The WA & CO Memorial Thread on: August 07, 2014, 12:52:28 am
http://www.drugpolicy.org/news/2014/08/marijuana-initiative-qualifies-washington-dc-november-ballot

Quote
08/06/2014

Today the Washington, D.C. Board of Elections ruled that Initiative 71, an initiative reforming D.C.’s marijuana laws, has enough valid signatures in order to qualify for the November ballot. One month ago, the D.C. Cannabis Campaign submitted 57,000 signatures, more than twice the number needed to qualify for the ballot.

Quote
Initiative 71 allows adults over the age of 21 to possess up to two ounces of marijuana, and allows for the cultivation of up to six marijuana plants at home. District law prevents the ballot initiative from addressing the sale of marijuana. However, the D.C. Council is currently considering a bill which would tax and regulate marijuana within the District.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Boston Globe: Coakley Lead Expanding on: August 02, 2014, 03:08:29 am
Wow, is the Boston Globe polling this race every week? This is their 9th poll since June:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_gubernatorial_election,_2014#With_Coakley
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / What % will Jerry Brown get in CA-Gov's 2014 top-two run-off? on: August 02, 2014, 02:54:25 am
?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italy 2014: Out of the World Cup, but life goes on.... on: August 02, 2014, 02:31:59 am
The Senate started discussing the constitutional bill proposed by Renzi, which would drastically reduce its power. Of course, many Senators are opposed to the bill. They filled 7800 amendments, and started discussing them at the average speed of 3 per day... It looks like a defining moment for Renzi.

Indeed... If he doesn't manage to get it through by September, things will probably go downhill from there.

Does this mean it passed? I thought the vote was next week?

Also, what's with SEL's opposition to weakening the Senate? I thought left-wing parties are generally more opposed to upper chambers.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 102


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines