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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Nigeria General Election - February 14, 2015 on: December 14, 2014, 02:47:14 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria#Demographics

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According to the United Nations, Nigeria has been undergoing explosive population growth and has one of the highest growth and fertility rates in the world. By their projections, Nigeria is one of eight countries expected to account collectively for half of the world's total population increase from 2005–2050.[116] By 2100 the UN estimates that the Nigerian population will be between 505 million and 1.03 billion people (middle estimate: 730 million).[117] In 1950, Nigeria had only 33 million people.[118]

And I thought Pakistan and Indonesia were growing fast. Wow.
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the "Cromnibus" bill? on: December 12, 2014, 02:57:10 am
Trash, much like the Congress that approved it.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: in other good news, GMO labeling loses in OR and CO on: December 11, 2014, 08:16:04 pm
Are they done counting? It looks like the margin is less than 1000 votes now.

Results are supposed to be certified on December 4 but Measure 92 (GMO labeling) had a small enough margin that it triggered a recount which looks like it'll be done by December 10: http://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/M92%20Recount%20Log.pdf

Looks like the recount didn't change much: http://www.katu.com/politics/Oregon-GMO-labeling-proponents-concede-defeat--285521151.html

Quote
Dec 11, 2014

SALEM, Ore. (AP) - Proponents of an Oregon ballot measure requiring labels on genetically modified foods conceded defeat Thursday after a judge ruled against them and an automatic recount appeared unlikely to sway the outcome.

The Yes on 92 campaign said there are no legal options remaining that could lead them to victory.

Quote
Measure 92 was defeated by just 812 votes out of 1.5 million, triggering an automatic recount. With two counties left to report their results, both of which opposed the measure in the initial tally, the recount has resulted in a net shift of just 11 votes in favor of the initiative.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: "Cromnibus" Spending Bill - Averting a Shutdown on: December 11, 2014, 08:04:00 pm
Is there an article listing all the various provisions? This is the closest I could find:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/12/09/whats-in-the-spending-bill-we-skim-it-so-you-dont-have-to/
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Share interesting raw vote facts here on: December 11, 2014, 07:45:03 pm
If I'm doing the math right on the 2012 Presidential election, it looks like Republicans' raw vote margin in the 7 most populous states they won (TX, GA, NC, AZ, IN, TN, MO; population 72m) was entirely offset by the raw vote margin Democrats had in California (population 38m): 2.9m v 3.0m
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: California officials ponder all-mail voting on: December 11, 2014, 05:59:29 am
Yeah, that was mentioned in 2013. Here's a good article on it: http://www.wweek.com/portland/article-20766-no_license_to_vote.html

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June 12th, 2013

A bill that could register as many as 600,000 new Oregon voters is in danger of dying without a vote.

The state’s top elections official, Secretary of State Kate Brown, wants anyone who gets a new driver’s license, or renews an existing one, to be automatically registered to vote.

Brown argues that more registered voters promotes a stronger democracy: 2.8 million Oregonians are eligible to vote but only 2.2 million are registered, a registration rate Brown calls “mediocre.”

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Last week, Janice Williamson of Salem cited such concerns in written testimony she presented to the Joint Ways Subcommittee on General Government. “There are no safeguards in this bill to prevent ineligible or illegal persons from obtaining a driver’s license, becoming registered and voting illegally,” she wrote.

Brown’s spokesman, Tony Green, says that wouldn’t happen. DMV data indicate who is a citizen and who is not, and elections clerks would simply set their data queries to exclude noncitizens from voting rolls.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: California officials ponder all-mail voting on: December 11, 2014, 05:45:16 am
A good thing to do, but there needs to be a system like in Colorado - in which all registered voters get sent their ballots ahead of election day plus enough polling stations for people to drop off their ballots on election day plus enough election-day polling stations to ensure that people who only register on election day can vote too.

Otherwise, if they scrap election day polling stations, people would only be able to vote if they have registered before election day. Some people simply wait until election day and decide only then to vote. If there's a voter registration cut-off date a few weeks before election day, the can't vote.

California passed same-day registration in 2012 (though it hasn't taken effect yet) so it will probably be more like Colorado's system. It seems like Oregon and Washington are more likely to keep 100% vote-by-mail and implement automatic voter registration compared to bringing back polling stations with same-day registration.

Nice. Let's hope CA has a good (and mostly flawless) system in place once they introduce it.

Question about OR and WA: What would "automatic voter registration" mean in these states ? About 99% coverage or much less than that ? Getting to 100% is almost impossible, if you do not have a Central Population Register. Not even the England/Scotland etc. manage 100% coverage.

I don't know about Washington (plus Republicans currently control the state senate there) but the Oregon Secretary of State has been pushing a bill to automatically register voters starting with the state DMV database/driver's licenses.

The bill would have an opt-out for people who don't want to be registered and, like you mention, we don't have a central population register nor does every resident have a driver's license so 95% was the highest coverage rate I remember hearing mentioned when it was debated in 2013. We'll see if the 2015 proposal is any different.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: California officials ponder all-mail voting on: December 11, 2014, 05:29:24 am
A good thing to do, but there needs to be a system like in Colorado - in which all registered voters get sent their ballots ahead of election day plus enough polling stations for people to drop off their ballots on election day plus enough election-day polling stations to ensure that people who only register on election day can vote too.

Otherwise, if they scrap election day polling stations, people would only be able to vote if they have registered before election day. Some people simply wait until election day and decide only then to vote. If there's a voter registration cut-off date a few weeks before election day, the can't vote.

California passed same-day registration in 2012 (though it hasn't taken effect yet) so it will probably be more like Colorado's system. It seems like Oregon and Washington are more likely to keep 100% vote-by-mail and implement automatic voter registration compared to bringing back polling stations with same-day registration.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / California officials ponder all-mail voting on: December 11, 2014, 05:07:35 am
Quote
11/14/2014

When all the ballots are finally tallied from last week’s election, the proportion of Californians voting by mail is expected to break the record set in 2012, the first time more than half of the state’s electorate voted absentee.

The uptick has more Californians pushing for the state to go all the way and ditch traditional polling places. Washington, Colorado and Oregon require all of their elections to be run entirely by mail, and at least 19 others permit some of their elections to be all mail, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

County elections officials have touted the potential increase in voter interest and significant savings from avoiding the task of recruiting and training polling place workers. And some believe an all-mail system could even help speed up and avoid some overtime ballot-counting.

Read more at http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/article3943892.html

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Historical California vote-by-mail stats: http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/hist_absentee.htm
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: IL House & Senate pass same-day registration, Quinn to sign it on: December 05, 2014, 06:52:56 pm
Is it possible for a state to make voting mandatory? That would be a shake-up.
It would also likely result in political backlash and a constitutional challenge.

Democrats have no excuse for not passing automatic voter registration. They'll be trying again in Oregon next year* but why are we the first? Why are CA/MA/MD/VT/RI/etc sitting on their ass? This is a strange issue to be timid and ineffective about.

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* http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/32384554-75/oregon-election-bucked-anti-democratic-trend-in-nation.html.csp

Quote
Nov. 6, 2014

In addition to seeking to bolster funding for K-12 schools and Oregon’s public universities, [House Speaker] Kotek said she expects discussions next year about a statewide mandatory sick leave policy for employers; raising the state’s minimum wage; renewing Oregon’s “clean fuels” program, which aims to reduce the amount of carbon in car and truck fuels; and automatic voter registration for Oregonians who get or renew a driver’s license.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Swiss Elections & Politics on: December 04, 2014, 03:06:12 am
Has Switzerland ever had a referendum on marijuana legalization?

Yes. There was a referendum on legalizing marijuana in 2008. It was rejected with 63.25% against and 36.75% in favor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss_referendums,_2008#Legalisation_of_the_personal_consumption_and_production_of_cannabis

Thanks. I wonder if the strict prohibition enforcement here in the U.S. is why it's fairing so well in terms of public support lately. Maybe Switzerland has seen a similar change in public opinion over the last six years?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Swiss Elections & Politics on: December 02, 2014, 09:39:21 pm
Has Switzerland ever had a referendum on marijuana legalization? Any recent polls on the issue?

I was just reading over some of these Swiss referendum articles on Wikipedia and I got curious about this considering all the proposals that have been voted on over the years.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Abolish The Senate on: December 02, 2014, 08:55:01 pm
The reason the court ruled that state senate districts had to be drawn equally, was because the rural counties were getting a highly disproportionate amount of representation. In California, Los Angeles County had only one state Senator, while several rural counties were distributed into several low population districts.

Can anyone imagine Cook county or Los Angeles county having the same number of state senators as some county with a population of less than 1,000?  Well that's the U.S. Senate.

I love the American Democracy™ that ensures "states rights" to disenfranchise the population. Truly a great, sacred compromise.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynolds_v._Sims#Background

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Among the more extreme pre-Reynolds disparities (compiled by Congressman Morris K. Udall):

* In the Connecticut General Assembly, one House district had 191 people; another, 81,000 (424 times more).

* In the New Hampshire General Court, one township with three people had a Representative in the lower house; this was the same representation given another district with a population of 3,244. The vote of a resident of the first township was therefore 1,081 times more powerful at the Capitol.

* In the Utah State Legislature, the smallest district had 165 people, the largest 32,380 (196 times the population of the other).

* In the Vermont General Assembly, the smallest district had 36 people, the largest 35,000, a ratio of almost 1,000 to 1.

* Los Angeles County, California, then with 6 million people, had one member in the California State Senate, as did the 14,000 people of one rural county (428 times more).

* In the Idaho Legislature, the smallest Senate district had 951 people; the largest, 93,400 (97 times more).

* In the Nevada Senate, 17 members represented as many as 127,000 or as few as 568 people, a ratio of 224 to 1.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: in other good news, GMO labeling loses in OR and CO on: December 02, 2014, 08:52:09 pm
Are they done counting? It looks like the margin is less than 1000 votes now.

Results are supposed to be certified on December 4 but Measure 92 (GMO labeling) had a small enough margin that it triggered a recount which looks like it'll be done by December 10: http://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/M92%20Recount%20Log.pdf
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: in other good news, GMO labeling loses in OR and CO on: November 21, 2014, 04:23:14 am
Quote
Measure 92 trailed by 1.2 percent, with fewer than 51 percent of voters in opposition.

It's down to a 0.1% margin now.

Quote
11/20/2014 4:37 PM

State Ballot Measure No. 92:

Yes - 749,505 (49.95%)
No - 750,989 (50.05%)
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Cannabis '14: The WA & CO Memorial Thread on: November 21, 2014, 03:58:06 am
So...what states are going to have 2016 referenda? I know Nevada, Maine, Massachusetts, and California are likely to go for it. I've heard that Arkansas (LOL), Michigan, and Arizona are other likely candidates for a 2016 referenda.

It's potentially any state with initiatives where it's polling good:



^^ Couldn't hurt to try Ohio and Montana too. In related news, Measure 91 hits 56% in Oregon. Good results for a mid-term.
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is the Democratic Party left-wing? on: November 20, 2014, 06:30:47 am
On what spectrum?

Shouldn't the left-right spectrum be universal based on the issues rather than relative to other countries? The latter doesn't give a simple, clear picture. Better to just say that a country or region is more left or right on the (single) continuum instead of creating multiple relative standards.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obamacare Silver Plans prices falling, on average, 0.2% in 48 cities on: November 20, 2014, 06:08:31 am
There is a hell of a lot of variation here, even within states. 

NYT has a map.
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In about a fifth of the counties in states using the federal insurance exchange, premiums for the lowest-priced silver plans will increase by 10 percent or more. But rates for the same plans will decrease in all of Maine, Montana and New Hampshire, and most parts of Mississippi and South Dakota.

^^^Does anyone have some insight? 

Maybe they're converging to a similar price range? Is there a color-coded map like that comparing average plan prices across all counties/states?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results on: November 19, 2014, 02:40:09 am
Brown is close to hitting 60% in California: http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/governor/

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November 18, 2014, 7:46 p.m.

Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown (D) - 4,232,479 (59.8%)
Neel Kashkari (R) - 2,846,008 (40.2%)

How many ballots are left to count? It's been two weeks Tongue
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Reddit on: November 18, 2014, 11:03:01 pm
I like its layout of topical communities and user-ranked submissions. Pretty interesting and democratic.
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Opinion of the first-past-the-post voting system on: November 14, 2014, 08:44:04 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-past-the-post_voting
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results on: November 10, 2014, 05:57:46 pm
Oregon legislature update: SD15 has been called for the Democrat giving the party an 18-12 majority in the Oregon state senate. Those two extra votes (was 16D-14R previously) should be able to overcome Betsy Johnson.

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/11/chuck_riley_unseats_bruce_star.html

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November 10, 2014

Democrat Chuck Riley has unseated incumbent Oregon Sen. Bruce Starr, a Republican, in the last legislative race to be decided. Given Riley's 221-point lead, it's clear that Starr won't be able to catch up.

...

The count in Senate District 15 had seesawed since last Tuesday's election, with Riley initially leading the partial count, Starr taking over Wednesday morning, and then Riley regaining the lead and building a wider margin as the near-final votes were tallied. He now has enough votes beyond Starr's to easily avoid an automatic recount.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 state legislature (general) elections on: November 07, 2014, 08:37:53 pm
http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/statevote-2014-interactive-map-before-election.aspx

The results are in. Changes from the 2012 state legislative elections:

Legislature flips to Democrats (0) -
Legislature flips to Republicans (3) - Nevada (H, S), West Virginia (H, S), New Hampshire (H).
Legislature flips to split-control (6) - Washington (S), Colorado (S), New Mexico (H), Minnesota (H), New York (S), Maine (S).

All legislative chambers that flipped were because of Republican gains. The Virginia senate flipped from tied to Republicans earlier this year due to a special election so I didn't include that above since the chamber's general elections are in odd years with four-year intervals (2011, 2015, etc).

Projected post-2013/2014 elections partisan control map:



Relevant to opposite-party governors: Democrats have large enough majorities to override the gubernatorial veto in Massachusetts, Illinois, and Maryland (both IL and MD are 3/5 override rather than 2/3). The same is true for Republicans in Missouri and West Virginia.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results on: November 06, 2014, 04:13:52 pm
http://oregonvotes.gov/results/2014G/index.html

^ The marijuana initiative might reach 56% yes when all the votes are in. That's pretty good for a mid-term and very encouraging for all those 2016 initiatives. California is a sure bet in 2016.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2014 US Gubernatorial Election Results on: November 05, 2014, 10:08:38 pm
Anyone know why the top two primary failed so hard in Oregon? I guess they looked to their neighbors to the north and south and didn't like what they saw?

I can't say for certain. A lot of the campaign flyers I received in the mail focused on "not letting billionaires write the state's election laws" (Bloomberg and another billionaire from Texas were the main funders of it) and things like that.

This is the second time it's been on the ballot too. It actually failed by a similar margin in 2008: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_Ballot_Measure_65_%282008%29
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