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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 05, 2016, 10:29:33 pm
The Coalition has taken the lead in Forde, bringing them to 74 seats. They're extremely likely to take Flynn and Capricornia, while Herbert and Hindmarsh look like decent chances too. They'll have a 76-78 seat majority in the end.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 04, 2016, 01:34:36 am
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-odds-on-for-mixed-queensland-result-20160704-gpy369.html

Interesting article on the 5 LNP-held seats the ALP is currently leading in Queensland.

In summation-

The ALP thinks it's unlikely they'll win Flynn or Forde.

Labor is confident it'll take Herbert, and has claimed Longman.

ALP thinks they have a better chance of taking Capricornia than Forde, but don't think they'll get both (whatever that means...)

Looking pretty good for a Coalition government- quite possibly a majority. According to the Guardian, an unnamed Coalition MP thinks they'll get 76-77 when it's all said and done.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 11:05:29 pm
Didn't Swan have poor candidate selection too? The ALP candidate was a former Green who had never voted ALP, and called the incumbent Liberal MP (who grew up as a ward of the state) a "rich white man" during the campaign.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 10:38:43 pm

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.
If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

Look at the changes in the individual seats- that suggests Forde will almost certainly flip back to the Coalition and Capricornia probably will too. Assuming they hold on to Grey, you'd get a 75-70 result.
My 72-72 guess already has Forde and Capricornia with the Liberals, as AEC shows Liberals narrowly ahead in both right now. They can get to 73 with Grey.

AEC has the ALP narrowly ahead in both. Labor has a 0.1% margin in Forde and 0.7% in Capricornia.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 09:32:54 pm
Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.
But how strong though? Labor's current 2PP vote there is 51.5%. The reason why they were so strong the last time around was because of FIFO workers, and there aren't as many of them in this election.

Hmmm... that's interesting. In that case, I think ALP could very well hold on there, but obviously we'll have to wait and see.

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.
If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

Look at the changes in the individual seats- that suggests Forde will almost certainly flip back to the Coalition and Capricornia probably will too. Assuming they hold on to Grey, you'd get a 75-70 result.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 09:57:51 am
Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 09:38:22 am
So, err, why is fish and chips lady back?

The simplest explanation is that she has filled the "right-wing populist" (if you can ascribe an ideological term to it...) void created by the collapse of the PUP.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 09:30:53 am
Turnbull's "victory"  speech is a disaster- he sounds totally unnerved, and is rambling incoherently. Obviously he has not expecting it to be this tight.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 06:57:50 am
Pauline Hanson has been elected to the Senate. One Nation is at 1.4 quotas in Queensland. They also have 0.6 in NSW.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 06:34:39 am
Any idea where what's left will go?

If the parties leading take them, it'll be 75-70, but with the ALP on less than 0.5% in 3 seats, I suspect you'll see a narrow Coalition majority in the end.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 05:27:39 am
ABC predicting 78 Coalition seats if they don't have any losses in WA... I still think it'll be around 80 in the end.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 05:20:37 am
Here's the live results page-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/

Major issue I see for ALP is that they're currently ahead in many seats by margins less than 1%. With postals, a lot of those will sweep back to the L/NP. I'd expect the Coalition to have a majority pretty easily at this point...
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 02:59:18 am
Galaxy has released an exit poll of 25 unnamed marginal seats, suggesting the ALP will win 68 seats.

Quote
5.4% swing in SA, 3.9% swing in WA, 3.4% swing in Queensland, 3.2% in New South Wales, 3% in Tasmania, 2.9% in Victoria.

Here is an ABC stream-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 01, 2016, 12:26:49 pm
TPP:

Coalition- 51.2%
ALP- 48.8%

Seats:

Coalition - 83 (gain Fairfax, lose Barton, Paterson, E-M, Page, Solomon, Burt, Capricornia, Lyons)
ALP- 63 (gain Barton, Paterson, E-M, Page, Solomon, Burt, Capricornia, Lyons)
Green- 1
Others- 3 (lose Fairfax)

Not going to take a stab at the Senate, although I think Hanson won't get in.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 06:50:44 pm
Calling it now.

LEAVE will win by 10. You heard it here first.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Democrats' ceiling in the 2016 House elections? on: June 22, 2016, 07:59:16 pm
They can probably get to around 200 (aka around what they got in 2012) on a good night. Beyond that it gets pretty difficult.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: BREAKING: Rubio is Running Again! on: June 22, 2016, 07:56:11 pm
Talleyrand, you also think Climbing Maggie will lose, right?

Not necessarily. I think that's the 3rd most likely pickup for Dems (after WI and IL). I see Ayotte outperforming Trump by several points, but Clinton will probably win the state comfortably. I'd peg that one as 50-50.

Okay, but why the R-FL avatar if you're not trolling? You're a Democrat and a Murphy supporter.

I'm an independent these days, although I still support Democrats for most races. I can't stand Murphy or Grayson, and would definitely support Rubio over them. I'd back Graham over Rubio, but she isn't running, so that point is moot.

Wow, interesting. Sorry for calling you a troll, but you'll have to agree with me that ironic supporters of a candidate are getting quite annoying these days. Tongue

I don't disagree. Obviously my pro-Rubio statements are somewhat exaggerated, but I am rooting for him to take this one, because Murphy is a disaster waiting to happen and Grayson is the worst.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: BREAKING: Rubio is Running Again! on: June 22, 2016, 07:49:14 pm
Talleyrand, you also think Climbing Maggie will lose, right?

Not necessarily. I think that's the 3rd most likely pickup for Dems (after WI and IL). I see Ayotte outperforming Trump by several points, but Clinton will probably win the state comfortably. I'd peg that one as 50-50.

Okay, but why the R-FL avatar if you're not trolling? You're a Democrat and a Murphy supporter.

I'm an independent these days, although I still support Democrats for most races. I can't stand Murphy or Grayson, and would definitely support Rubio over them. I'd back Graham over Rubio, but she isn't running, so that point is moot.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: BREAKING: Rubio is Running Again! on: June 22, 2016, 07:46:23 pm
Talleyrand, you also think Climbing Maggie will lose, right?

Not necessarily. I think that's the 3rd most likely pickup for Dems (after WI and IL). I see Ayotte outperforming Trump by several points, but Clinton will probably win the state comfortably. I'd peg that one as 50-50.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: BREAKING: Rubio is Running Again! on: June 22, 2016, 07:42:46 pm
In all seriousness, this story is very, very bad. 


Exactly.

CBS Miami exposes Privileged Patrick as a lying fraud. This combined with Rubio's reentry should finish off this loser once and for all.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/06/22/the-making-of-patrick-murphy/

I wonder how Atlas Dems will try to spin their way out of this and defend this imbecile again. Sad! Then again, he might lose to Grayson in the primary at this point.

Either way, Rubio is a lock.

Look, I know you're trolling and you're convinced that this race is safe D with the inevitable titan Murphy, but how will you react when Rubio DOES beat Murphy?

Are you okay? I am slightly disturbed that you've come to such a baseless conclusion. But if such vivid delusions combined with your constant ogling at Kelly Ayotte make you happy, I can accept that for your sake!

Anyway, the Dems' best hope at this point is that Gwen Graham jumps in. However, even if she somehow won the primary, this would probably end up being a 2004 redux. Rubio won't lose.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: BREAKING: Rubio is Running Again! on: June 22, 2016, 07:03:33 pm
CBS Miami exposes Privileged Patrick as a lying fraud. This combined with Rubio's reentry should finish off this loser once and for all.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/06/22/the-making-of-patrick-murphy/

I wonder how Atlas Dems will try to spin their way out of this and defend this imbecile again. Sad! Then again, he might lose to Grayson in the primary at this point.

Either way, Rubio is a lock.

22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: BREAKING: Rubio is Running Again! on: June 22, 2016, 09:40:27 am
Rubio will pound the daylights out of Murphy. The reaction from Atlas Dems this November will be painful to watch.

Rubio is a once-in-a-generation political talent, while Murphy is a paper tiger.

The Democrats now have no path to winning the Senate.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: June 19, 2016, 06:38:42 pm
My thoughts on this election so far-

-The ALP will probably be around 50% on the TPP at the end, but trail the Coalition by about 5-6 points on the primary vote (probably will end up around 35-36%). The Coalition will probably do pretty well in most of its marginals, and end up with around 80-85 seats.

-I am struggling to find seats the ALP would probably gain (does anyone have any ideas here). Their performance in Queensland and NSW seems quite weak to say the least, and while the swing overall in WA is massive, apparently the Liberals are confident of holding all their seats save perhaps Burt (the polls corroborate this). The calculus is totally complicated by NXT in SA, and I have no idea what's going on in Tasmania. Turnbull is a pretty good fit for the Victorian swingy seats, and there are whispers (?) that McEwen might be a possible Lib gain, although their candidate has gotten in a lot of hot water lately.

-There are a lot of interesting indy/minor party candidates, but I'm struggling to see any winning. Some NXT candidates probably have a best chance, but the ALP should hold all its inner city seats and the Coalition probably will be fine against Oakeshott and Windsor.

What are everyone else's thoughts?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Post your 2016 Senatorial prediction now! on: June 19, 2016, 06:28:37 pm
Democrats will gain Wisconsin and Illinois, and hold all their seats, so it'll end up being D+2. Heck would have won with a nominee other than Trump, but he'll probably fall just short.

Anyone who thinks Burr, Blunt, Grassley, McCain, or Rubio are in serious danger is deluded.

Portman, Ayotte, and Toomey are all strong incumbents and will hold on against weak opponents despite Clinton winning upballot.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Would Trump/Boehner be a strong ticket? on: April 29, 2016, 07:39:09 am
Your choose.
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