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November 24, 2014, 07:26:19 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: HYPO: Snowe wants back in on: November 21, 2014, 07:36:38 am
If the whole electorate could vote, Snowe would win comfortably. In a Republican primary, Collins would win though.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK parliamentary by-elections 2014 on: November 20, 2014, 09:02:35 pm
From the Guardian:

The BBCs Chris Mason says hes heard figures suggesting Ukip will get around 17,000, the Conservatives around 14,000 and Labour 7,000 or 8,000.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Recent Presidents and their parties' numbers in Congress. on: November 20, 2014, 08:25:35 pm
For Obama, the Senate should be -13, not -15. 59 Democrats and 41 Republicans were elected in 2008, and 46 Democrats and 54 Republicans in 2014.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Will Democrats ever regain a majority of governorships again? on: November 17, 2014, 09:57:40 pm
Could Joe Dorman be the Charlie Baker of 2018? Tongue
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Partisan Breakdown by Senate Class on: November 17, 2014, 08:23:26 pm
So, after this election, this will be the breakdown of parties by senate class.

Class 1 (2012/2018)- 25 Democrats, 8 Republicans
Class 2 (2014/2020)- 11 Democrats, 22 Republicans
Class 3 (2010/2016)- 10 Democrats, 24 Republicans

Very polarized.

After this election 25/46 Democratic Senators will be from Class 1.

Before this election 24/45 Republican Senators were from Class 3.

Are situations like this fairly normal or are things like this a fairly new phenomenon?
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Midwest Gubernatorial Recall Election Poll on: November 17, 2014, 07:54:02 pm
Apparently in the Midwest you need 60% to successfully recall a governor. It'll be interesting to see what'd happen if say LeBron got 43% and GAWorth got 57% how he'd go forward. That probably would be even worse for him than losing outright.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is Landrieu done for? DSCC cancels many of their ad buys in LA markets. on: November 16, 2014, 10:22:22 pm
The real question is whether she will cross 40%. Strong chance she won't.

She will be the last Democratic Senator from Louisiana in our lifetime.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-Sen: Ralston rates Reid foes on: November 16, 2014, 07:53:14 pm
Ralston addresses a retirement scenario. If Reid retired he would tap Masto, who deeply desires a Senate seat, as his successor. IIRC he's also said on Twitter that Masto could challenge Heller in 2018.

If she wants a senate seat so much, why didn't she run in 2012? Reid recruited her, and considering how close someone as flawed as Berkley came to ousting Heller, she might have won.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Midwest Gubernatorial Recall Election Poll on: November 16, 2014, 06:52:13 pm
Go.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2014 a GOP R+6 election on: November 16, 2014, 06:39:00 pm
Which one was the first?

2010 had a 6.8% margin. 51.7% to 44.9%.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: At-Large Special Election Coverage on: November 16, 2014, 04:00:17 pm
Rules if it's a tie?

For an at-large election, the individual with more first preferences would win. Right now, that's Cris.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Begich 'already plotting' for 2016 run on: November 16, 2014, 02:45:07 pm
Begich has two strikes against him - (1) the Republican presidential victory in Alaska in 2016 is going to make it harder for him to unseat Murkowski.  

He won in 2008, when McCain/Palin were winning 59/37.

Barely, against an opponent who had been convicted on corruption charges.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: November 2014 Special At-large Senate Election on: November 15, 2014, 07:53:08 pm
1.SWE
2 Baconking
3 Poirot
4 Cris
5 Rpryor


14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Duckworth husband registers DuckworthforSenate.com on: November 15, 2014, 09:07:10 am
Congratulations Senator Kirk.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Mark Udall almost pulled it out after all in CO on: November 13, 2014, 05:23:54 pm
Jane Norton is not capable of making anyone dead in the water; she's one of the weakest candidates the Colorado Republicans can put up. Coffman would be a formidable opponent for Bennet, though, and Renuart or Gessler would make it competitive too.

I'd still tentatively bet on Bennet to pull it out considering his 2010 campaign though. I suspect he might have held on narrowly this year had he been up for re-election.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Best/Worst Ads of 2014 on: November 12, 2014, 07:52:45 pm
Best:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9Y24MFOfFU
Joni Ernst-Squeal

Worst:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXqHI059n90
Monica Wehby-Trust
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of Northeast Chief Judicial Officer Talleyrand on: November 11, 2014, 04:29:45 pm
Well, I'm back, this time as Chief Judicial Officer of the Northeast Region.



As Chief Judicial Officer, I hereby declare that the total number of votes cast in the referendum was as follows:

Ayes: 12
Nays: 7
Abstentions: 1

Therefore, the GM Independence Amendment has been ratified by the Northeast Region.

The results of this referendum will be gazetted in the official office of the Northeast Judiciary and transmitted to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate.

x Talleyrand
Chief Judicial Officer
November 11, 2014
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Voting Booth: GM Independence Amendment on: November 11, 2014, 04:28:51 pm


As Chief Judicial Officer, I hereby declare that the total number of votes cast in the referendum was as follows:

Ayes: 12
Nays: 7
Abstentions: 1

Therefore, the GM Independence Amendment has been ratified by the Northeast Region.

The results of this referendum will be gazetted in the official office of the Northeast Judiciary and transmitted to the President Pro Tempore of the Senate.

x Talleyrand
Chief Judicial Officer
November 11, 2014
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Swearing in of New Officeholders on: November 11, 2014, 07:35:03 am
I, Talleyrand, do solemnly affirm that I will faithfully execute the office of Northeast Chief Judicial Officer, and will, to the best of my ability, preserve, protect, and defend, the Constitution of the Republic of Atlasia and the Constitution of the Northeast Region.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Former Queensland Premier, Wayne Goss, has passed away on: November 09, 2014, 07:08:42 pm
RIP.

It seems like he had suffered from a series of brain tumours over the years. Certainly a very important figure in Queensland history.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Talleyrand's 2016 Senate Ratings on: November 09, 2014, 05:59:32 pm
Why?

I don't expect Obama's numbers to go up much, if at all by 2016, and that's going to be a drag on the eventual presidential nominee. Basically, I think people will be looking for a breath of "fresh air" and find that in some Republicans. And I don't think Hillary is going to be immune to whatever drags a Democrat would face.

Windjammer, I think it's possible that Sandoval won't run, but considering he has a Republican successor lined up in Nevada and how much the Republicans will want him to enter the race, I think he'd be hard-pressed to decline. You make a point about the Reid machine- that's the main reason I wouldn't count Reid out.

I think Sandoval is popular at this point that even if he signs a few more right-wing bills than he has with a Democratic legislature, he should be okay.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Talleyrand's 2016 Senate Ratings on: November 09, 2014, 05:44:16 pm
I think it's a good summary.

I'd quibble a bit with results. If you have eight races that lean Republican, it stands to reason that one or two of those races would still go to the Democrats.

You forgot one Senate seat though....the Vice-President.

Yeah, there are a lot more offensive opportunities for Democrats than Republicans for sure, especially when the former haven't made a net gain in this class since Ronald Reagan was president. It will all come down to environment.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Talleyrand's 2016 Senate Ratings on: November 09, 2014, 05:29:30 pm
CrabCake, I think Kirk is still the most vulnerable incumbent aside from Reid, yeah. I'm going out on a bit of a limb by saying he holds on, but since I want to avoid "tossup", I put him in Lean R.

IceSpear, I am referencing the 2014 elections, yes, but if you look closely, that isn't reflected in how I analyzed these races for the most part. It is fair to say that I am expecting a more Republican environment than what seems to be the consensus right now.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Talleyrand's 2016 Senate Ratings on: November 09, 2014, 03:20:49 pm
Spot on prediction.
The only remark is I think the fossils (aka Mikulski) aren't retiring.


I'm sure at least one or two will retire.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Talleyrand's 2016 Senate Ratings on: November 09, 2014, 02:21:02 pm
Krolicki is a bad candidate, and he would probably lose to Harry Reid. I'd move at least Wisconsin and Illinois to toss-up, even though both incumbents are very strong campaigners.

I actually think they're more "tossup" than "lean republican", but I wanted to put races on either side of a dividing line based on how I thought would ultimately win, if that makes sense.
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