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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: August 27, 2016, 04:12:22 am
My last minute prediction- 14 ALP, 5 Independent, 6 CLP
2  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2016 House of Representative Elections on: August 21, 2016, 07:46:41 pm
1. Talleyrand
2. Peebs
3. Clyde
4. Evergreen
5. ClarkKent
6. Never Again
7. Santandar
8. Abraham Washington
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Why is Clinton underperforming in Nevada and Iowa? on: August 18, 2016, 10:37:52 am
Interested to hear any explanations or #analysis for this...
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of TNvolunteer? on: August 17, 2016, 10:39:59 pm
Obvious FF, in spite of his terrible politics.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Department of Federal Elections: Rpryor03, SOFE on: August 17, 2016, 10:11:59 pm
Thanks and sorry- did not realize.
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Department of Federal Elections: Rpryor03, SOFE on: August 17, 2016, 02:51:56 pm
Since I have sent two private messages, but received no response...

Can my name on the ballot be listed as "TexasDemocrat/Talleyrand" or "Talleyrand". The latter was what I was listed as in all six federal elections for which I was a candidate, while the former is what I am currently registered as under the Census Bureau. Considering this is the name that I've been known by on the forum for almost four years, I think it's only fair that it's what I'm listed as. At the very least, I think "TexasDemocrat/Talleyrand" would be fair.

Thanks, Talleyrand
7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Talleyrand for House on: August 16, 2016, 07:00:07 am
Question: Are you still a s**t in silk stockings?

Depends on your perspective, but I certainly won't deny it. Wink
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Talleyrand for House on: August 16, 2016, 06:51:45 am
Welcome back and good luck on your campaign.  Smiley

Question:  What is your main platform as a Nationalist Party candidate?
Thank you!

My main platform would be restoring activity to the House. I am also pretty interesting in working on environment and minority issues. I don't have a signature issue yet, but I am reading up on what legislation has been passed or debated in recent months to get a better idea. I can answer any specific policy question though!

Do you still consider yourself a leftist?  If so, why should Labor voters be pressured to support an open Marco Rubio supporter?

In real life, I am more or less a leftist, but in Atlasian terms I am running a basically non-ideological campaign. I would encourage Labor voters to consider voting for me due to my past history with the party, and because I do share many of the same social justice values. But I won't be a partisan foot-soldier for any side.

As for my Rubio support, it stems from my sheer disgust with the two Democratic candidates in that senate election. I would have supported several other candidates against Rubio.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Talleyrand for House on: August 14, 2016, 09:14:11 am
Why do you think you're qualified to be a member of the House?

I am a former Assemblyman, Secretary of State, Secretary of Federal Elections, Senator, Governor, Speaker, President Pro Tempore, and Representative.

I also bring a fresh, independent voice outside the Labor-Federalist hegemony.
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Talleyrand for House on: August 13, 2016, 10:02:54 pm
Friends, I have returned to Atlasia and announced my campaign for the House of Representatives.

I am open to questions.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: August 13, 2016, 09:59:32 pm
Talleyrand
Nationalist Party
Texas
Welcome back to the game

Thank you! I am looking forward to seeing how it has changed.
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Candidate Declaration Thread on: August 13, 2016, 09:57:27 pm
I will be running for the House.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: August 13, 2016, 09:57:04 pm
Talleyrand
Nationalist Party
Texas
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / FL-Sen: Will Rubio be re-elected? on: August 13, 2016, 09:11:44 am
Yes, he'll win by around 5 points when it's all said and done, heavily outperforming Trump. He will then become a top contender for the 2020 Republican contest.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: FL - Suffolk: Rubio +13 on: August 05, 2016, 09:47:34 am
Democrats should triage Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Rubio, Portman, and Toomey are all safe. The only path to a Dem majority is IL+WI+NH+IN. Bayh will decline enough by election day that in the end Dems will only get 48 or 49 seats (47 if they lose Nevada...)

Clinton will have zero coattails.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 05, 2016, 10:29:33 pm
The Coalition has taken the lead in Forde, bringing them to 74 seats. They're extremely likely to take Flynn and Capricornia, while Herbert and Hindmarsh look like decent chances too. They'll have a 76-78 seat majority in the end.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 04, 2016, 01:34:36 am
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-odds-on-for-mixed-queensland-result-20160704-gpy369.html

Interesting article on the 5 LNP-held seats the ALP is currently leading in Queensland.

In summation-

The ALP thinks it's unlikely they'll win Flynn or Forde.

Labor is confident it'll take Herbert, and has claimed Longman.

ALP thinks they have a better chance of taking Capricornia than Forde, but don't think they'll get both (whatever that means...)

Looking pretty good for a Coalition government- quite possibly a majority. According to the Guardian, an unnamed Coalition MP thinks they'll get 76-77 when it's all said and done.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 11:05:29 pm
Didn't Swan have poor candidate selection too? The ALP candidate was a former Green who had never voted ALP, and called the incumbent Liberal MP (who grew up as a ward of the state) a "rich white man" during the campaign.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 10:38:43 pm

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.
If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

Look at the changes in the individual seats- that suggests Forde will almost certainly flip back to the Coalition and Capricornia probably will too. Assuming they hold on to Grey, you'd get a 75-70 result.
My 72-72 guess already has Forde and Capricornia with the Liberals, as AEC shows Liberals narrowly ahead in both right now. They can get to 73 with Grey.

AEC has the ALP narrowly ahead in both. Labor has a 0.1% margin in Forde and 0.7% in Capricornia.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 09:32:54 pm
Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.
But how strong though? Labor's current 2PP vote there is 51.5%. The reason why they were so strong the last time around was because of FIFO workers, and there aren't as many of them in this election.

Hmmm... that's interesting. In that case, I think ALP could very well hold on there, but obviously we'll have to wait and see.

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.
If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

Look at the changes in the individual seats- that suggests Forde will almost certainly flip back to the Coalition and Capricornia probably will too. Assuming they hold on to Grey, you'd get a 75-70 result.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 03, 2016, 09:57:51 am
Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 09:38:22 am
So, err, why is fish and chips lady back?

The simplest explanation is that she has filled the "right-wing populist" (if you can ascribe an ideological term to it...) void created by the collapse of the PUP.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 09:30:53 am
Turnbull's "victory"  speech is a disaster- he sounds totally unnerved, and is rambling incoherently. Obviously he has not expecting it to be this tight.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 06:57:50 am
Pauline Hanson has been elected to the Senate. One Nation is at 1.4 quotas in Queensland. They also have 0.6 in NSW.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 02, 2016, 06:34:39 am
Any idea where what's left will go?

If the parties leading take them, it'll be 75-70, but with the ALP on less than 0.5% in 3 seats, I suspect you'll see a narrow Coalition majority in the end.
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