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June 25, 2017, 02:15:10 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread on: June 20, 2017, 07:02:12 pm
Handel has it. Calling it now and tuning out.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: GA-06 Predictions Thread (June 20) on: June 20, 2017, 04:29:24 pm
Handel 52.7
Ossoff 47.3
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread on: June 07, 2017, 12:05:52 pm
It'll be a blowout.

CON   46.7%    401 seats
LAB    34.6%    181 seats
LIB       7.1%       4 seats
UKIP     3.9%       0 seats
Greens  1.9%       0 seats
SNP      4.2%     43 seats
PC        0.6%       3 seats
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT - AL (May 25) Predictions Thread on: May 25, 2017, 07:58:27 pm
Gianforte 53
Quist 44
Wicks 3
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Post body-slam: Who wins in MT-AL? on: May 25, 2017, 06:58:12 pm
Gianforte by 9.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: MT - AL (May 25) Predictions Thread on: May 23, 2017, 11:52:53 am
Republicans have played the expectations game here tremendously. It's gonna be a Gianforte rout.

Gianforte- 54%
Quist- 43%
Wicks- 3%


7  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: May 2017 - Southern Chamber of Delegates Election on: May 13, 2017, 09:30:50 pm
1. JustinTimeCuber
2. Southern Gothic
3. Fhtagn
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: April 2017 House Election on: April 22, 2017, 09:33:15 pm
1. Simosaad
2. Drewmike
3. Clyde
4. OneJ
5. Peebs
6. Dereich
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread on: April 22, 2017, 08:05:44 pm
Le Pen- 25 5
Fillon- 23.5
Macron- 22.5
Melenchon- 17.5
Hamon- 7
NTA- 4
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: April 2017 - Southern Senate Election (Class II) on: April 14, 2017, 08:54:56 am
SOUTHERN SENATOR
CLASS II



[1] Sjoycefla of Kentucky
Independent - Labor Party



[2] Leinad of Georgia
Southern Liberty Coalition - Federalist Party
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Bold 2018 predictions? on: April 13, 2017, 02:08:34 pm
-Democrats net less than 5 seats in the House, while losing seats like MN-1 and MN-7.

-Democrats net 1 governorship.

-Republicans win 8 senate seats, ousting Democrats in the 5 Romney states, along with OH, WI, and FL.
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: March 2017 - Southern Elections and Electoral Tie Resolution Amendment on: March 11, 2017, 06:33:07 am
Governor

1. NeverAgain

Chamber of Delegates

1. JustinTimeCuber
2. fhtagn
3. Jacobin American

Electoral Amendment

NAY
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: February 2017 Federal Election on: February 19, 2017, 03:48:57 am
PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT OF ATLASIA


[4] dfwlibertylover/Goldwater
Federalist Party



[1] Maxwell/smilo
Vermont Communist Party/Harambe is a Free Gorilla Party



[3 ] NeverAgain/Southern Gothic
Labor Party



[2] Winfield/Poirot
Independent



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above



HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - NINE SEATS



[6 ] 1184AZ of Washington
Labor Party



[ 2] Cashew of California
Labor Party



[8 ] Enduro of Pennsylvania
Federalist Party



[5 ] lwp2004 of Connecticut
United Alternative



[9 ] North Carolina Yankee of North Carolina
Federalist Party



[7 ] OneJ_ of Mississippi
Labor Party



[ 1] Peebs of North Carolina
Labor Party



[3 ] Potus2036 of West Virginia
Federalist Party



[11  ] SecureAmerica/Heisenberg of New Mexico
Federalist Party



[ 4] simossad of Minnesota
Labor Party



[ 10 ] tedbessell of California
Federalist Party



[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________



[  ] None of the above
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Talleyrand's 2018 Senate Predictions on: January 28, 2017, 08:19:26 pm
A little too optimistic for my tastes. I'd start Brown and Baldwin as underdogs.

There is a good case for this too. If I had to remove the tossup category entirely, I'd put Brown and Baldwin in Lean R and Nelson and Casey in Lean D. That leaves Rs just one off a filibuster-proof majority.
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: January 2017 House Special Election on: January 28, 2017, 08:07:52 pm
Blair2015
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Talleyrand's 2018 Senate Predictions on: January 28, 2017, 08:04:42 pm
Okay, here are my tentative predictions almost 2 years out.

Safe R

Mississippi
Missouri- McCaskill be blanched by Ann Wagner. In addition to sitting in a state Trump won by 20 points, she's highly unpopular.
Nebraska
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Likely R

Arizona- As long as Flake makes it through the primary, this seat will be held by the Republicans, and I fully expect any challenge to fizzle out. In addition, I doubt an A-lister like Sinema will run.
Indiana- Donnelly is a non-entity who got lucky in 2012 with a terrible opponent. He'll lose comfortably to someone like Luke Messer or Susan Brooks.
North Dakota- Democrats are as good as dead in this state. Heitkamp has had some decent approvals in some polls, but her balancing act b/w Big Oil and the Dem base in this state suggests she has almost no room for error. She will almost certainly lose.

Lean R

Montana- Tester is highly overrated, and has bad approvals. He'll keep it close, but probably lose to someone like Tim Fox.
Nevada- This is a good target on paper for Dems, but with no top tier candidates on the horizon, it may be less enticing than it seems. In addition, the Reid machine will no longer be out in full force, and Nevada could very well revert to its red midterm status.
West Virginia- If the election were held today, Manchin would win, but the moment Trump sets foot in this state and starts campaigning against him, he'll be in a dicey situation.

Tossup

Florida- Nelson is the only candidate who can hold this seat for the Dems, but he'll likely face a stiff challenge from an experienced challenger like Rick Scott in a midterm year likely to be difficult for Democrats in his home state.
Ohio- Brown is an excellent fit for Ohio, but Josh Mandel is an extremely strong candidate who is running in an increasingly red state. Pure tossup.
Pennsylvania- Bob Casey is very low energy and ran a terrible campaign in 2012. He does have a good family name and some personal support in NEPA and SWPA, but Pat Meehan would instantly make this a barnburner.
Wisconsin- Baldwin will struggle to hold off Duffy. Fortunately, anti-Trump sentiment might save her.

Lean D

Maine- King will win if he runs again, but if he doesn't, a strong Republican like Bruce Poliquin could very well snatch this seat.
Michigan- Stabenow has gotten extremely lucky with the political climates she's ran in, and the opponents she's ran against. That said, she's a relatively savvy campaigner who would probably still be slightly favored over any Republican challenger at this point.

Likely D

Virginia- Kaine is safe unless Barbara Comstock runs, but that seems unlikely for now.

Safe D

California   
Connecticut   
Delaware   
Hawaii   
Massachusetts   
Maryland   
Minnesota   
New Jersey
New Mexico   
New York   
Rhode Island   
Vermont
Washington



Right now, we're probably looking at a Republican net gain of between 5 and 9 seats, giving them their largest senate majority in decades (57-61 seats).
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The TRUMP inauguration thread on: January 20, 2017, 05:53:27 pm
Cory Gardner has pulled an O'Malley and become the next "unidentified man".

18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: December 2016 - Southern Senate Election (Class II) on: December 11, 2016, 11:12:14 pm
1. Siren
2. Leinad
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: December 2016 House Election on: December 11, 2016, 11:11:20 pm
1. Southern Gothic
2. NeverAgain
3. Peebs
4. Cashew
5. Siren
6. Wolfentoad
7.Tennessee
8. Heisenberg
9. 1184AZ
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your early 2018 Senate rankings on: December 09, 2016, 06:13:11 pm
1. Missouri
2. North Dakota
3. Indiana
4. Montana
5. West Virginia
6. Wisconsin
------ (My current cutoff)
7. Ohio
8. Nevada
9. Pennsylvania
10. Florida
11. Arizona
12. Michigan
13. Virginia
14. Maine
21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: November 2016 Southern Regional Election on: November 19, 2016, 11:46:11 pm
Governor:
[2] dfwlibertylover (FED-TX)
[1] NeverAgain (LAB-VA)
[ ] write-in:

Chamber of Delegates:
[5] Ben Kenobi (ACP-TX)
[1] fhtagn (LAB-NC)
[4] Jack Enderman (FED-FL)
[2] Leinad (FED-GA)
[3] PiT (The Physicist) (FED-LA)
[ ] write-in:

22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Lock, upset, bold prediction. on: November 07, 2016, 06:32:50 pm
Lock: Burr wins
Upset: Pat McCrory is re-elected
Bold: Roy Blunt wins by over 3%
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Bacon King v. SOFE on: November 02, 2016, 09:58:09 pm
Hello, I've been called as a witness, due to my experience as Atlasia's longest serving Secretary of Forum Affairs (July 2008 - December 2009). As SoFA I presided over a similarly contentious election between Lief and PiT, held in June 2009. The result was a tie, and the rule back then was that whoever had the most first preferences won the election, so since one of PiT's voters preferenced the great Ataslian gporter first, he did not win. Anyway, the result was contentions because as SoFA I was responsible for invalidating several votes, which did admittedly advantage Lief. Of course, unlike the defendant I wasn't on the ballot.  What followed was a lengthy court challenge which you can read about here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=98165

As you can see from the case, I took great lengths to ensure the law was upheld and to receive input from other citizens to make my decision, because I wanted to do what was fair and what was best for Atlasia.

I cannot recollect a time while I was SoFA where I disallowed a vote for campaigning, though I believe it was a law at the time. Something like that would have to be fairly egregious and well, obvious for me to believe that a ballot should be disallowed over. "Campaigning" in the true spirit of the law means something much more than what either Hashemite or BRTD have done.  At the very least, let's look at the intent here. How can one campaign against the very ticket you voted for?  That doesn't make any sense. The law was put in there to prevent people from unduly influencing other voters, and I do not believe that could possibly have been the intent or the result of the actions of either Hashemite or BRTD.

So to conclude, if I were the SoFA or the SoFE or whatever you guys are calling it these days, I would not have disallowed these votes. Of course, had I been running in the the election in the first place, I would have either resigned my post or had my deputy run the show and recused myself from managing election.

Thank you for time.

I have also been called as a witness, and wholeheartedly echo Earl's sentiments in his testimony. I am a former three-time Deputy Secretary of Federal Elections and Secretary of Federal Elections to boot. I have administered multiple federal elections, and worked closely with my immediate predecessor, the longest serving Secretary of Federal Elections, Homelycooking.

Campaigning is defined as "work in an organized and active way toward a particular goal, typically a political or social one". No goal, let alone "organized and active" manner was expressed in the votes cast by BRTD or Hashemite, which expressed a negative opinion of vice presidential candidate, Kingpoleon. They did not make any attempt to influence the outcome of the election, and their respective statements simply amount to harmless commentary. The idea that they were "campaigning" is further undermined by the fact that they ended up voting for the ticket of Blair/Kingpoleon.

During my tenure as SoFE or Homelycooking's before me, and as far as I am aware, those of Teddy and Earl before either of us, no votes were invalidated for "campaigning". That was a period amounting around seven years. During this time, votes with comments such as "all of these candidates are great" or "anyone but [candidate xxx]" were readily accepted, as they were not campaigning. Unless a vote quite explicitly attempts to influence the ballots of a another candidate by encouraging them to vote for or against a candidate (pursuant to the definition provided in an earlier paragraph), the vote in question should be valid.

I am afraid that allowing the (what I believe illegal) invalidation of the 2 votes in question would set quite a dangerous precedent, widely expanding the definition of what is considered "campaigning" and set quite an ambiguous standard leaving opening for abuse by future SoFEs while also straying from the provided definition of "campaigning".

In addition, I strongly believe Rpryor should have recused himself from counting the votes in an election in which he took part, or at the very least, allowed an independent party or parties to provide a recommendation on whether the votes in question should have been counted, so as to avoid any personal judgment clouding his decision.

For all these reasons, I strongly encourage the court to reinstate the validity of both the votes of BRTD and Hashemite.

Thank you.
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2016 Federal Election on: October 22, 2016, 07:45:41 am
Pres- 1. Xahar/Bacon King, 2. Blair/Kingpoleon, 3. Yankee/Rpryor

House- 1. Earl, 2. Siren, 3. NeverAgain, 4. Peebs, 5. Fitzgerald, 6. Southern Gothic
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2016 Southern Senate Runoff Election on: October 22, 2016, 07:37:50 am
Southern Gothic

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