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April 18, 2014, 11:32:31 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which GOP Gov will have the best record to run on? on: April 15, 2014, 10:41:55 pm

Plus Dayton could very well be a VP choice.

That's not happening. I like Dayton but he would be a terrible VP pick. Much better at governing than at campaigning. Poor speaker, not a natural politician, makes Tim Pawlenty look like Mr Excitement.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: is there a path to the nomination for martin o'malley? on: April 15, 2014, 10:36:56 pm
I'm not so sure he'd be the most viable candidate. He pushed for and signed the toughest gun control law in the country, which would be screamed from the hilltops by the NRA/GOP and I have a feeling that this may turn off southern Democrats

Since when have Southern Democrats mattered? Contrary to what the NRA is selling common sense gun control measures are quite popular.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Sanders beat Clinton in the primaries in 2016? on: April 15, 2014, 10:23:19 pm
Not a chance in hell.

Besides Sanders is not even a member of the Democratic Party.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Klobuchar headed to Iowa for second time on: April 15, 2014, 10:18:09 pm
If  Hillary does not run and  Klobuchar does she is odds on favorite to win Iowa, after that who knows. Iowa is very similar to Minnesota politically and Klobuchar is insanely popular in Minnesota. She would probably not be the first choice of the Kos wing of the party but she would play very well with centrist Dems and Independents, especially in the Midwest. Honestly besides Hillary IMHO she is the Democrats best candidate.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Florida Trends: Key Counties on: February 23, 2014, 08:21:11 pm
It is interesting that the state has a whole has remained pretty stable while some major counties have shifted dramatically.  Guess Florida is large and diverse enough to be a pretty good reflection of the country as a whole.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RNC adopts rules to try and shorten 2016 primary season on: January 25, 2014, 08:01:49 pm
Just watch as Florida f[inks] everything up again anyway, just like every election.  Then watch as all the carefully crafted reforms collapse overnight.

Florida is not the problem this time, they have already moved back their primary date. The problem states this time are Michigan (again), Arizona (again), North Carolina (changed date to Tue after South Carolina), Minnesota and Colorado (caucuses).   
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: RNC adopts rules to try and shorten 2016 primary season on: January 25, 2014, 06:15:57 pm
Maybe the harsher penalties will be enough to bring all the states in line and we will have  a primary season that starts a little later but otherwise I don't see much change from 2012. Only a handful of states use a statewide winner take all system anyway so the April 1/March 15 change really will not change anything.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Heidi Heitkamp VP? on: January 25, 2014, 05:57:45 pm
I don't see any reason why Hillary should not pick a woman, anyone put off by having two women on the ticket probably would not vote for Hillary anyway. That having been said I don't think Heitkamp would be the best choice. To conservative and unknown and does not help much geographically.  Plus in what is likely a closely divided Senate she would likely have a Republican appointed to her seat if she won the vice Presidency.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Christie: frontrunner or not on: January 18, 2014, 06:12:20 pm
I agree with Celizzas "first among equals" alternative but Cook is right that the party wants a true conservative who is also credible (non-kook Gov or Senator). Just look how Perry became frontrunner the second he announced in 2011.
That's why Scott Walker would be a strong candidate.

Walker has to win in 2014 first. He is slight favorite but  led by only 2 points in the latest poll.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2013/10/29/marquette-law-school-poll-shows-walker-in-tight-race-with-burke-for-wisconsin-governor-in-2014/
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Am I the only one who thinks Romney will stage a comeback in 2016? on: January 18, 2014, 06:08:17 pm
Quote
“Oh, no, no, no. No, no, no, no, no. No, no, no," Romney told the paper. "People are always gracious and say, ‘Oh, you should run again.’ I’m not running again."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/18/mitt-romney-president_n_4624365.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chris Christie and Minnesota 2016: on: December 12, 2013, 07:57:29 pm
I think it's possible for Christie to carry Minnesota under the right circumstances, but I do not believe it is very likely.  It seems as if Minnesota has been trending further to the left in recent elections.

Minnesota always appears closer than it really is, one of the most inelastic states in the country. No Republican has gotten more 50%+ of the vote statewide since Arne Carlson for Governor in 1994 and besides Tim Pawlenty's very narrow 3 way win in 2006 no Republican has won a statewide race since 2002.  The key for Democrats is that the urban areas (Minneapolis, St Paul) while already dark blue are trending even bluer (Obama did better in 2012  in those cities than in 2008). 

Also, from just browsing some random maps, it appears rural Minnesota is not overly GOP-friendly either.  Is that the case?  It doesn't seem to have the dynamic that, say, Illinois does where Cook County is very blue, the collar counties are purple to light red and Downstate (with some exceptions like the STL area, Champaign, the Quad Cities, some counties in Southern Illinois that still love their moderate Democrats, etc.) is very red.

True. While rural Minnesota leans Republican on the Presidential level it is not as Republican as a lot of  the rural Midwest.  This is a holdover from the days of when the Farmer-Labor party was king in rural Minnesota.  Farmer-Labor  was merged with Democrats in 1944 by Hubert Humphrey to form the Democratic-Farmer-Labor party (DFL). As the old Farmer-Laborites pass on rural Minnesota is slowly trending more Republican but since rural Minnesota is losing population this does really help Republicans statewide much.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chris Christie and Minnesota 2016: on: December 01, 2013, 03:40:27 pm
I think it's possible for Christie to carry Minnesota under the right circumstances, but I do not believe it is very likely.  It seems as if Minnesota has been trending further to the left in recent elections.

Minnesota always appears closer than it really is, one of the most inelastic states in the country. No Republican has gotten more 50%+ of the vote statewide since Arne Carlson for Governor in 1994 and besides Tim Pawlenty's very narrow 3 way win in 2006 no Republican has won a statewide race since 2002.  The key for Democrats is that the urban areas (Minneapolis, St Paul) while already dark blue are trending even bluer (Obama did better in 2012  in those cities than in 2008). 

That is true for St. Paul but Minneapolis.

Obama in Minneapolis 2008: 81.15%
Obama in St. Paul 2008: 75.58%

Obama in Minneapolis 2012: 80.27%
Obama in St. Paul 2012: 76.23%

However yes, Christie is a bad fit for Minnesota.

Thanks for the correction. Was going from memory and screwed it up.  Still the trend in Minneapolis and St Paul is Democratic.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chris Christie and Minnesota 2016: on: December 01, 2013, 03:17:57 pm
I think it's possible for Christie to carry Minnesota under the right circumstances, but I do not believe it is very likely.  It seems as if Minnesota has been trending further to the left in recent elections.

Minnesota always appears closer than it really is, one of the most inelastic states in the country. No Republican has gotten more 50%+ of the vote statewide since Arne Carlson for Governor in 1994 and besides Tim Pawlenty's very narrow 3 way win in 2006 no Republican has won a statewide race since 2002.  The key for Democrats is that the urban areas (Minneapolis, St Paul) while already dark blue are trending even bluer (Obama did better in 2012  in those cities than in 2008). 
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Chris Christie and Minnesota 2016: on: December 01, 2013, 03:06:14 pm
I don't think Christie is a better fit for Minnesota than the nation as a whole.  Christie can come off as kind of a dick sometimes (part of his appeal for some) but while the Minnesota nice thing can be overblown I don't think being an @sshole plays that well here. 
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Preferred Republican Candidate on: November 29, 2013, 02:25:59 pm
Not a Republican and am likely to vote Democratic but if I had the choose a Republican it would be  Christie.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rank from #1 to #5 the 5 individuals most likely to be elected president in 2016 on: November 29, 2013, 02:23:37 pm
1. Hillary Clinton
2. Chris Christie
3. Scott Walker
4. Rand Paul
5. Amy Klobuchar

Clinton above Christie only because she has  a much easier path in the primaries.  Christie gets the GOP nomination he becomes the favorite.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Minnesota- Why can't the GOP get the job done there? on: September 19, 2013, 07:01:29 pm
Well "The Twin Cities" aren't friendly voting wise to Republican Presidential Candidates.

Two party vote 2012

Minneapolis- Obama 83% - Romney 17%
St Paul- Obama 78% - Romney 22%

That has to rank right up there with the most Democratic white majority cities in the nation.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Barely Democrat States on: September 19, 2013, 06:43:42 pm
So I've been slowly compiling a national map of voter registration by county, and I finished Nevada last week..... the Democratic Party there only has a lead in registration in three counties, Clark, Esmeralda, and Washoe; a very small lead in the latter two. The Republican Party can win there, they just need to turn out the vote from Lincoln County to Carson City.

The only county that matters in Nevada is Clark. 72.5% of the entire state population is in that county. All the Democrats need to do to win is to get over 53% in Clark county and keep Washoe close to even.

If every Obama voter outside of Clark and Washoe counties had stayed home and not voted, Obama still would have won the state by over 20,000 votes.  There are just not enough available votes in the cow counties to make up much ground for Republicans. 
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who should Hillary pick as her VP choice? on: July 05, 2013, 11:43:20 pm
Safe Choice, Mark Warner. Out of the box choice(s)- Amy Klobuchar or Elizabeth Warren.

Honestly I like the women on the list better than the men.  Instead of picking a man to balance the ticket I could see her pulling a page out of Bill's playbook and doubling down by picking a VP similar to herself (In Bill's case picking another young white southerner.)   
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why are all of these theoretical 2016 election match ups.......... on: July 05, 2013, 11:28:53 pm
NOT BEING PUT INTO THE ELECTION WHAT IF SECTION?

The 2016 board is being cluttered with all of these theoretical match ups that will never happen.

Mr. Moderator, please move them to the election what if section, and please instruct all posters to post these match ups in the election what if section, because that is what they are, election what ifs.

THEY DO NOT BELONG ON THE 2016 BOARD.

Agreed. I have not posted here hardly at all since the 2012 election. When I have stopped by a couple of times to read the board it was so cluttered seemingly random match-up threads I just moved along.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Are Chris Christie's Problems with the Republican Base Exageratted? on: July 05, 2013, 11:23:45 pm
I certainly hope so. He's one of, if not the best candidates for 2016.


I certainly hope not Smiley As a Democratic leaning Independent Christie is the only candidate I would fear. I think he will have a tougher time winning the nomination than the General if he runs.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What states should Republicans compete in that W never won? on: July 05, 2013, 11:11:36 pm
Pennsylvania.  The Democrats might still have some room to fall in parts of the state, plus it's electorally rich and could offset the inevitable loss in VA.  If the Republicans can get a voter ID law passed there it could easily become a legit swing state with the right candidate.

I am not a fan of voter ID laws, they seem more likely to disenfranchise eligible voters than to catch ineligible ones, but I honestly do not see them making a difference unless the race is extremely tight. I don't see PA being that tight at the presidential level.  
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What states should Republicans compete in that W never won? on: July 05, 2013, 11:02:26 pm
PA, MI, WI, MN and OR

Had Romney's campaign been better run and organized, they would have all been competative.

except MN. The floor is artificially high because of fundies, but the state is overall pretty solidly liberal, and the MN-GOP has a very, very hard time winning a statewide election without help from the MIP.

FWIW no Republican has gotten 50%+ in a statewide race in Minnesota since Arne Carlson got 63% in his race for governor in 1994 (Carlson was a moderate/Liberal for those of you who don't remember him).  Minnesota is fools gold for Republicans, the margin looks doable but the state is very inelastic and without a 3rd party candidate nearly unwinnable  for Republicans.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Marco Rubio gets Florida Legislature to eliminate early primary in 2016 on: May 03, 2013, 04:16:39 pm
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2013/05/marco-rubio-gets-florida-legislature-to-eliminate-early-primary-in-2016.html

Quote
The new primary-date provision, passed as an amendment Friday afternoon, specifically says Florida’s primary be held “on the first Tuesday that the rules of the major political parties provide for state delegations to be allocated without penalty.”
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Vote counting update thread on: November 28, 2012, 07:05:05 pm
Ohio is a disaster waiting to happen. Can you imagine outrage by the right wing  if Ohio had been the tipping point state and a narrow Republican lead on election night turned into a Democratic win 3 weeks after the election when provisionals are counted?  It would be chaos.
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