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March 27, 2017, 01:54:03 am
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2017/2018 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread on: March 22, 2017, 12:58:07 pm
Have to imagine Nolan stays out in that case

Still think MN-08 would be a tougher open seat hold than MN-01. This is a surprise though - could it mean Swanson isn't getting in?

Democrats are much stronger down ballot and have a deeper bench in MN-08 than in MN-01.  There have been 11 Distinct wide elections in MN-08 since 2012, Democrats have won 10 of them.

BTW very exited Walz is going to run for Governor even though I will lose my congressman. Strongest candidate by far IMO.  If Democrats lose the Governorship and Republicans gain the trifecta MN becomes the next Wisconsin.

So is word on the ground that Swanson is staying out, then? Thought she was the DFL juggernaut this time around

No word on Swanson but my guess is she still gets in.  She would be a solid candidate but I wouldn't use the term juggernaut. IMHO Walz would be a slight favorite over her for the nomination.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: 2017/2018 Gubernational elections: Who is running megathread on: March 22, 2017, 09:42:10 am
Have to imagine Nolan stays out in that case

Still think MN-08 would be a tougher open seat hold than MN-01. This is a surprise though - could it mean Swanson isn't getting in?

Democrats are much stronger down ballot and have a deeper bench in MN-08 than in MN-01.  There have been 11 Distinct wide elections in MN-08 since 2012, Democrats have won 10 of them.

BTW very exited Walz is going to run for Governor even though I will lose my congressman. Strongest candidate by far IMO.  If Democrats lose the Governorship and Republicans gain the trifecta MN becomes the next Wisconsin.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who is the most at risk Congressman in 2018 and why? on: March 19, 2017, 08:11:34 pm
Rick Nolan might be bailing on his House seat. R+1.

Source?

https://twitter.com/bloisolson/status/842834066483400704

Earlier in the day, I heard from a solid source that @RickNolanMN is very close to jumping in the #mngov race.  More Monday in @morningtake

This could be a blessing in disguise for D's if he does. Nolan's old anyway and even if he won his seat in 2018 and 2020, he'd probably be replaced by an R once he retires. Might as well give it up in 2018 when D's will have an easier time holding the seat with someone younger since the environment isn't likely to be R-friendly. And Klobuchar will be winning the seat easily in the Senate race, and Nolan has an outside chance at winning the gubernatorial primary as the only outstater.
Walz may jump in as well.

Walz telling people he is in the Gov race. Expect an announcement soon.

http://www.startribune.com/lt-gov-tina-smith-is-out-all-eyes-on-rep-tim-walz/416518413/

4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Was Obama's Healthcare the biggest blunder & missed opportunity for a Dem? on: March 03, 2017, 11:00:57 pm
He got passed what could be passed.  It was basically a Republican alternative to Hillary's plan in the 90s.  It was immensely better than the status quo...and if people had an interest in making it work, it can work.

That said, I support single payer.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will prayers for Donald Trump work? on: March 03, 2017, 10:57:23 pm
God isn't real.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 11:29:36 am
Total turnout in Orange county FL just passed the total turnout of 2012.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 11:48:06 pm
Osceola county Florida: 105,334 early votes so far.  2012 total of 108,927 vote.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 07:25:57 pm
Judge has ordered that polling booths stay open in Miami-Dade until 9 PM.

I believe only one location has extended hours.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 07:17:50 pm
Turnout in Miami-Dade over 50K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795415767688871937

10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 09:10:44 pm
Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:43:32 pm
You do know that all those Indy's are not going to break for Trump, don't you?

Trump has to win Indys by 20 points to make up for the early vote deficit. There is no evidence that this is happening. A single outlier CNN poll doesn't prove they are

Actually, a FOX News poll had Trump winning Independents by I believe 44 to 33?

Again there is a difference between self identified Independents and and those who are registered as NPA.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 04:26:04 pm
Early Voting 2012 Fl:
Florida
Votes: 4.3 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent

Final Results:
Winner B. Obama (i)    Dem   50.0%   4,235,270   29
M. Romney             GOP   49.1%   4,162,081   

So in 2012, Obama won early voting by 3% and lost election day by 2.1%. So R's are still looking great there sinces its basically a dead heat EV wise right now.

My guess by the time early voting is over Dems will have a 1-2% lead. Souls to the polls is this coming Sunday and while all the major Democratic leaning counties will be open for early voting Sunday most Republican leaning counties will be closed.  Also  with so many voters voting early election day voting is bound to be way down. Tougher to make up a deficit with fewer voters.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 02:16:18 pm
Huge turnout day in Broward county. Already a 1 day high for VBM returns and on pace for a 1 day high for EIP voters.

http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213#
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 09:41:02 am
Last day of early voting by state:

Nevada: Today
Texas: Today
Arizona: Today
Wisconsin: Today
Georgia: Today
North Carolina: Saturday
Florida: Saturday or Sunday (depends on the county)
Ohio: Monday
Iowa: Monday

Sunday's numbers will be interesting in Florida. All the big Democratic leaning counties will be open for EV while most of the Republican leaning counties will be closed.  
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 03, 2016, 12:01:45 am
GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New poll hype thread on: November 02, 2016, 11:22:45 am
https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/793850018662940672

New @QuinnipiacPoll for FL, NC, OH & PA out at 3pmET today
17  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 09:24:13 am
lol Michigan polling.

FWIW they were one of the better pollsters for the Primary.  (No I don't believe they are close this time).
18  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 09:21:03 am
Huge *, in the field for 2 months!
19  Election Archive / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 09:19:23 am
http://msutoday.msu.edu/_/pdf/assets/2016/state-of-state-survey.pdf

20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 31, 2016, 10:13:35 pm
OK, I know I'll get blasted again for being a killjoy and everything, but... from the NC and FL results, doesn't it look like SttP was a massive flop? African-Americans were supposed to narrow their turnout deficit at least a bit, right? Instead the latest numbers I've seen show them still way down.

If this is wrong please explain me why, but for God's sake cut it with the unbacked "everything will be fine" mantra.


No one's taking this up? Uh-oh.

I believe the big STTP push in Florida is next Sunday.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 31, 2016, 10:11:12 pm
In Miami-Dade county Early/Absentee voting has nearly equaled the total Early/Absentee vote in 2012 with a week yet to go..

https://twitter.com/MDCElections?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Vote by Mail:

2012: 244K
2016: 222K

In Person Early

2012: 235K
2016: 239K





Yes, Steve Schale just tweeted that Palm Beach, Broward and Dade surpassed the 1 million mark in VBM and EIP today. Big numbers. Also, Hispanics make up 13.5%, so far, of all early votes. That's another good number for Clinton.

I think we are looking at 6+ mill Early/VBM ballots in Florida (about 4 mill now) out of an estimated total turnout of a little over 9 mill.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 31, 2016, 09:58:14 pm
In Miami-Dade county Early/Absentee voting has nearly equaled the total Early/Absentee vote in 2012 with a week yet to go..

https://twitter.com/MDCElections?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Vote by Mail:

2012: 244K
2016: 222K

In Person Early

2012: 235K
2016: 239K



23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 30, 2016, 07:19:08 pm
A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That isn't a tie, but a win for Hillary.

OK if you have to nitpick it's a win for Hillary. I suppose you like polls with decimal points to Smiley
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 30, 2016, 07:08:59 pm
A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 25, 2016, 09:34:01 pm
For anyone who is concerned that the early vote is "cannibalizing" the election day vote - that's not necessarily a bad thing. Remember all the stories of people in hours-long lines on election day in 2012? Every person who would vote on election day instead voting early is a person who is not waiting in line on election day.

Knock on wood at least in Florida things seem to be going smother than in 2012. Going from 8 to 14 Early Voting days and extending hours is a big help.
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