Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 06, 2016, 07:19:28 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 28
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks on: November 08, 2016, 11:29:36 am
Total turnout in Orange county FL just passed the total turnout of 2012.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 11:48:06 pm
Osceola county Florida: 105,334 early votes so far.  2012 total of 108,927 vote.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 07:25:57 pm
Judge has ordered that polling booths stay open in Miami-Dade until 9 PM.

I believe only one location has extended hours.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 06, 2016, 07:17:50 pm
Turnout in Miami-Dade over 50K.

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/795415767688871937

5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 09:10:44 pm
Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 05:43:32 pm
You do know that all those Indy's are not going to break for Trump, don't you?

Trump has to win Indys by 20 points to make up for the early vote deficit. There is no evidence that this is happening. A single outlier CNN poll doesn't prove they are

Actually, a FOX News poll had Trump winning Independents by I believe 44 to 33?

Again there is a difference between self identified Independents and and those who are registered as NPA.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 04:26:04 pm
Early Voting 2012 Fl:
Florida
Votes: 4.3 million
Democrats: 43 percent
Republicans: 40 percent

Final Results:
Winner B. Obama (i)    Dem   50.0%   4,235,270   29
M. Romney             GOP   49.1%   4,162,081   

So in 2012, Obama won early voting by 3% and lost election day by 2.1%. So R's are still looking great there sinces its basically a dead heat EV wise right now.

My guess by the time early voting is over Dems will have a 1-2% lead. Souls to the polls is this coming Sunday and while all the major Democratic leaning counties will be open for early voting Sunday most Republican leaning counties will be closed.  Also  with so many voters voting early election day voting is bound to be way down. Tougher to make up a deficit with fewer voters.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 02:16:18 pm
Huge turnout day in Broward county. Already a 1 day high for VBM returns and on pace for a 1 day high for EIP voters.

http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213#
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 04, 2016, 09:41:02 am
Last day of early voting by state:

Nevada: Today
Texas: Today
Arizona: Today
Wisconsin: Today
Georgia: Today
North Carolina: Saturday
Florida: Saturday or Sunday (depends on the county)
Ohio: Monday
Iowa: Monday

Sunday's numbers will be interesting in Florida. All the big Democratic leaning counties will be open for EV while most of the Republican leaning counties will be closed.  
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: absentee/early vote thread, part 2 on: November 03, 2016, 12:01:45 am
GOP not as lucky as the Cubs today in Clark:
Total Clark: 36,041
Ds: 15,959 44%
Rs: 11,202 31%
Dems add almost 4,800.

https://twitter.com/Franciscoj_NV/status/794041357832749056
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New poll hype thread on: November 02, 2016, 11:22:45 am
https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/793850018662940672

New @QuinnipiacPoll for FL, NC, OH & PA out at 3pmET today
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 09:24:13 am
lol Michigan polling.

FWIW they were one of the better pollsters for the Primary.  (No I don't believe they are close this time).
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 09:21:03 am
Huge *, in the field for 2 months!
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / MSU Michigan poll: Clinton +19 (4 way), +20 (2 way) on: November 02, 2016, 09:19:23 am
http://msutoday.msu.edu/_/pdf/assets/2016/state-of-state-survey.pdf

15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 31, 2016, 10:13:35 pm
OK, I know I'll get blasted again for being a killjoy and everything, but... from the NC and FL results, doesn't it look like SttP was a massive flop? African-Americans were supposed to narrow their turnout deficit at least a bit, right? Instead the latest numbers I've seen show them still way down.

If this is wrong please explain me why, but for God's sake cut it with the unbacked "everything will be fine" mantra.


No one's taking this up? Uh-oh.

I believe the big STTP push in Florida is next Sunday.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 31, 2016, 10:11:12 pm
In Miami-Dade county Early/Absentee voting has nearly equaled the total Early/Absentee vote in 2012 with a week yet to go..

https://twitter.com/MDCElections?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Vote by Mail:

2012: 244K
2016: 222K

In Person Early

2012: 235K
2016: 239K





Yes, Steve Schale just tweeted that Palm Beach, Broward and Dade surpassed the 1 million mark in VBM and EIP today. Big numbers. Also, Hispanics make up 13.5%, so far, of all early votes. That's another good number for Clinton.

I think we are looking at 6+ mill Early/VBM ballots in Florida (about 4 mill now) out of an estimated total turnout of a little over 9 mill.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 31, 2016, 09:58:14 pm
In Miami-Dade county Early/Absentee voting has nearly equaled the total Early/Absentee vote in 2012 with a week yet to go..

https://twitter.com/MDCElections?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Vote by Mail:

2012: 244K
2016: 222K

In Person Early

2012: 235K
2016: 239K



18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 30, 2016, 07:19:08 pm
A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That isn't a tie, but a win for Hillary.

OK if you have to nitpick it's a win for Hillary. I suppose you like polls with decimal points to Smiley
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 30, 2016, 07:08:59 pm
A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 25, 2016, 09:34:01 pm
For anyone who is concerned that the early vote is "cannibalizing" the election day vote - that's not necessarily a bad thing. Remember all the stories of people in hours-long lines on election day in 2012? Every person who would vote on election day instead voting early is a person who is not waiting in line on election day.

Knock on wood at least in Florida things seem to be going smother than in 2012. Going from 8 to 14 Early Voting days and extending hours is a big help.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 25, 2016, 09:26:41 pm
Florida is toast for Trump, guys

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 37m37 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

CORREX:  Broward had 30k more votes early today (not 25k). Almost tied record day one numbers!!!  #SteveCantAdd


Early Voting turnout is through the roof in Florida. Another 35,000 voters voted early today in Miami-Dade for a total of 70,000  (no partisan breakdown yet but has to be good for Democrats).  That is about 30% of the 2012 total  early turnout and there are still 12 days of Early Voting left.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: MN-08/SurveyUSA: Trump+12 on: October 25, 2016, 06:08:11 am
This same poll has Nolan losing by 8 in 2014.

Also same pollster had Nolan winning by 2 in 2012, won by 9.

Would not be surprised if Trump carries this district but he is not carrying it by 12 points.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 23, 2016, 03:33:00 pm
Nevada Elections ‏@NVElect  51m51 minutes ago
There was an error in reporting Washoe mail/absentee ballot returns. The corrected info can be found here: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4537 .

Reps take a small lead in absentees but Dems dominating in In Person WEarly Voting.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The absentee/early vote thread on: October 23, 2016, 03:41:54 am
Nevada Day 1 as of 11:30 PM (some smaller counties have not reported yet):

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4531

In Person

Dem 27,309 (52.79%)
Rep 15,313 (29.60%)
Other 9,113 (17.61%)

Absentee's

Dem 13,708 (42.79%)
Rep 12,293 (38.37%)
Other 6,038 (18.85%)

Total

Dem 41,017 (48.96%)
Rep  27,606 (32.95%)
Other 15,151 (18.09%)
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Internal poll megathread on: October 16, 2016, 10:30:40 pm
https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.

Not an Internal. Didn't know the best place to post it and didn't think it deserved it's on thread so I figured it would be alright here.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 28


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines