http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2013/05/marco-rubio-gets-florida-legislature-to-eliminate-early-primary-in-2016.html

The new primary-date provision, passed as an amendment Friday afternoon, specifically says Florida’s primary be held “on the first Tuesday that the rules of the major political parties provide for state delegations to be allocated without penalty.”

Ohio is a disaster waiting to happen. Can you imagine outrage by the right wing  if Ohio had been the tipping point state and a narrow Republican lead on election night turned into a Democratic win 3 weeks after the election when provisionals are counted?  It would be chaos.

The GOP really has no choice but to target it because they have so few other options to get to 270.  Still a long shot but they have to try.

Obama:  2008 states - Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska CD 02.

Excuse me while I gloat a little

You make an assumption that turnout will look like 2008 on election day; I don't. 

This is true. guess we will know who was right in about 12 hours.

In and out in 5 minutes, straight Dem and no on the amendments (ban gay marriage, Photo ID).

This is my 8th presidential election, have never stood in line more than 15 minutes. Don't understand how some states can be so incompetent that people have to stand in line for hours.

Nearly Final Iowa Early Votes.

Total: 673,124

Dem: 281,966 (41.9%)
Rep: 215,439 (32.0%)
Other: 175,719(26.1%)

I believe more absentees could come in today. Good numbers for the president IMHO. Of course the margins will narrow but it will be tough for republicans to make up a 66,000+ vote deficit.

Really bad numbers for Obama.  His early voting numbers have been cut by 8.1 points from 2008, and the trend is continuing to show a drop.  The Democrats were expected to surge.  They have not. 

You seem fixated on the percentages while ignoring the raw vote totals. Total early vote turnout up across the board, since voter registration is about equal it only makes sense that the higher the total turnout the more it will resemble the electorate as a whole.

Nearly Final Iowa Early Votes.

Total: 673,124

Dem: 281,966 (41.9%)
Rep: 215,439 (32.0%)
Other: 175,719(26.1%)

I believe more absentees could come in today. Good numbers for the president IMHO. Of course the margins will narrow but it will be tough for republicans to make up a 66,000+ vote deficit.

It will be worse. Anyone thinking Obama will do better than in 08 should remember that there is a ballot initiative on same sex marriage which is sure to turn out a great number of evangelicals. that's why this could be the big wild card ala Indiana 08.

I honestly think just the opposite will be true. Minnesota always leads the nation in turnout, the vast majority of evangelicals who tend to be older more established voters will already will be voting. On the other the pro gay marriage side has a large well funded GOTV campaign aimed at younger more progressive voters who are less likely to go to the polls without a little extra incentive.

Since they have great demographics, I worked out the African American vote in NC.

In 2008, 51.6% of the black electorate had voted.

In 2012, 50.3% of the black electorate had voted.

Note that black registration has changed:

2008:  21.6%

2012:  22.4%

To nitpick a bit the last update has the Black turnout up to 50.5%

http://ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf

Total African American turnout is up 50,000 compared to the same time in 2008.

Iowa Early:

Total Returned: 640,248
Democrats: 270,796 (42.3%)
Republicans: 205,697 (32.1%)
Other: 163,755 (25.6%)

Democratic Margin of 65,099

33.1% of registered voters have already voted.
43.6% of registered Democrats have already voted
32.8% of registered Republicans have already voted.
23.8% of registered others have voted

Turnout is currently 41.5% of the total 2008 turnout.

I know Republicans turn out in greater numbers on election day but they have a pretty large hole to dig out of. Conventional wisdom was they had to hold Dems to under a 60,000 early vote lead and that's not happening. Advantage Democrats.

Obama:  2008 states - Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska CD 02.

Based on everything I am reading, it really does seem like the black turnout/enthusiasm, is not going to be that far off from what it was in 2008.  If that is the case, the PPP poll makes complete sense, as does PPP's +4 in Virginia while at same time showing only +2 in (whiter) Iowa.

Agree completely. Gun to my head I say Romney pulls it out but IMHO this is a 1-2% race either way, probably closest state in the nation.

https://twitter.com/5hauser/status/265235288027193346

Just on twitter for now.

I think Romney should spend from now to election day in Pennsylvania so he can nail down the state.

Is this where I say Junk Poll because I don't like the result?

Washoe County Nevada

Tonight (Early Votes)

Total 14,234

Dem 5,343
Rep 5,348

Total (all Early Votes + Absentees thru Thur)

Total 124,499

Dem 50,269
Rep 50,219

Turnout

69% of 2008 total turnout. 

So be basically we have a tie, which is good for Obama. He does not need to win Washoe, he just has to hold Romney's advantage down to less than about 5%.

It's a rally at the airport on his way to Wisconsin, BFD.

It pisses me off that there will be no exit polls from Georgia. While it is safe Republican in 2012 the trend is definitely in the Democrats direction.

Looks about right. Indiana was the flukiest state of 2008, still not sure how Obama won. Most interesting part of the poll is Donnelly up 11. Republicans choke away another Senate seat.

Everyone is a pollster this year!

I believe St Norbert's has been polling for a long time. I don't know their long term track record but I don't think they are new to the game.

FWIW they were pretty close on the Recall this summer (Walker +5, actual Walker +6.8 )

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/265355-gop-pollster-romney-up-in-ohio-closing-in-wisconsin


OH

Romney 49
Obama 46


WI

Romney 47
Obama 49



Great news! Romney is surging across the midwest.

Republican internal.

http://acme.highpoint.edu/~mkifer/src/19memo.pdf

National

Obama 46
Romney 43

North Carolina

Romney 46
Obama 45

Obama - Christie?