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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: April fundraising on: May 20, 2016, 09:38:12 pm
For some reason the reports are not  posted at the usual place but you can find them here.

http://www.fec.gov/finance/disclosure/efile_search.shtml

Bernie down to less than $6 mil COH.  Hillary $30 mill. I guess no need to be frugal when you don't have to worry about the General.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic KY / OR primary results thread (first polls close at 6pm ET) on: May 18, 2016, 11:33:39 am
Oregon is feeling the BERN! Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley

Sites showing 10% margin with 77% in and Dave showing <10% with higher numbers. Awful showing by Bernie. Need to remove those undemocratic caucuses and he won't win states by 40% outside of Vermont.

I don't know where Dave is getting his numbers but CNN is now at 83% and has Sanders up by 10.2%. He's probably going to win by significantly more than 10% in the end and I fail to see how that's an awful showing for him in a closed primary.

Considering Oregon was the Berniest state left on the calendar and before yesterday he needed to win 2/3 of the remaining pledged delegates this was a disater for him at least in terms of the fantasy he could win the nomination.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Would Bernie have been a better candidate against Trump? on: May 14, 2016, 06:26:27 pm
I doubt it.  For all the complaining the Sanders/Clinton race has been remarkably cordial (at least at the top). I don't recall one negative ad the Hillary campaign has run against Sanders. That would be totally different in the General.  Republican Super Pacs would turn Bernie into a cross between Lenin, Mao and Kim Jung Un. 
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 14, 2016, 06:02:19 pm
I'm not going to try to defend what some of the Bernie folks are doing (from Joe Republic's account), but I do understand why they're raising a fuss about potential losing a delegate or two. Imagine if it was Sanders who had a  400 delegate lead before a single vote was cast, thanks to nearly universal backing form super delegates. Then, imagine Clinton winning New Hampshire by 22%, only to break even in the total delegate count, since Sanders won all six super delegates. Imagine if the chair of the DNC wasn't subtle at all about her support of Sanders, and wanted to limit the number of debates, preventing Clinton from getting much of a chance to make her case. Then, imagine landslide victories by Clinton in many caucus states were mostly ignored by the media, since Sanders "had it in the bag." Imagine a state that only allowed folks who registered with the Democratic Party six months before the actual contest (which was a very high-stakes contest) to vote, which prevented many potential Clinton supporters from participating, even if they were willing to give their allegiance to the Democratic Party...

Perhaps it's impossible to imagine the tables being turned. It's easy for a Clinton supporter to say that if things had happened in the opposite way, they'd be accepting that Sanders had won, and wouldn't feel as if the system was stacked in Sanders' favor, and wouldn't be paranoid about losing possible delegates. I would bet, though, that many Clinton supporters, some of whom mock the Sanders supporters who act like this (and again, I don't condone their behavior, I'm simply trying to explain that they feel as if the system is "rigged" against Bernie. Whether or not it actually is doesn't have much impact on how they feel) would be acting the same way if things were reversed.

I would have more sympathy for Bernie supporters concerns about Super Delegates but for the fact that current plan to get Bernie nominated is to have the Super Delegates overturn the preference of pledged delegates. You can't have it both ways.

5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 14, 2016, 01:02:35 pm
There was an announcement a little while ago that a puppy has been found, and the owner should claim it at the Bernie Sanders info kiosk.

LOL
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic primary map if every state had an open primary on: May 14, 2016, 12:54:23 pm
I think Hillary would still be winning, but the delegate gap would be somewhat narrower.  The only state I think might have flipped to Bernie is Connecticut, and he might have come within ten points in New York, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.  IMO, it would be far more interesting to postulate whether Sanders would be winning if every state had caucuses. Tongue

Open Primaries would have helped Clinton in most of the caucus states IMO. Probably a wash overall.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 14, 2016, 12:52:32 pm
I think it is safe to say we have seen the last of Nevada as an early state.

I don't follow.

A state who's process dissolves into chaos should not be giving an early spot on the calendar. Besides rumors are Nevada is going to be replaced by Colorado or Arizona as first in the West.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 14, 2016, 12:45:44 pm
I think it is safe to say we have seen the last of Nevada as an early state.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 14, 2016, 12:34:46 pm
According to twitter things have ground to a halt as Bernie supporters are having a hissy fit.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 14, 2016, 12:29:30 pm
This is another big problem with caucuses. Delegate allocation should just be proportional, and delegates shouldn't be able to change their minds. NV's delegates should just be split 19-16.

FWIW many caucus states do use precinct caucus results to bind delegates (MN for example).  Primaries are still better but having the results change after every step of the process is absurd.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 14, 2016, 12:22:48 pm
Btw, cross-posted from a different thread, and from before the credentials report:

I'm at the NV Dem convention right now, and state party chairwoman Roberta Lange just announced that she agreed the caucus system is outdated and fraught with massive problems.  She and the state party will be looking at moving toward a state-funded primary (crowd went wild) or "massively reforming" the party-funded caucuses (crowd booed).

Glad to see the wind blowing in the right direction.

Agreed. Here in Minnesota it likes we will have a Primary in 2020 also. Primary bill has passed the state Senate and is moving in state House, Governor Dayton has said he is favor of a primary.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: NV Democratic State Convention on: May 14, 2016, 12:20:10 pm
I think we will be back to a 20-15 Clinton National Delegate majority, up from an estimated 18-17 majority after county conventions.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / NV Democratic State Convention on: May 14, 2016, 12:14:18 pm
Looks Like Hillary will have a majority of delegates at state convention.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/731528885104349184

1,245 Clinton delegates
1,149 Sanders delegates

Back to a narrow Hillary win in Nevada after the state appeared to shift to bernie after county conventions.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / MA: Clinton 55 Trump 31 on: May 08, 2016, 08:22:03 pm
http://www.bostonglobe.com/2016/05/08/results-boston-globe-poll-general-election/tgV5EHpKm3PMQMN1B7DbrN/story.html?p1=Article_Related_Box_Article

15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win on May 10th? (D) on: May 08, 2016, 12:03:34 pm
Hello! Nebraska already voted on the Democratic side on March 5 and Bernie Sanders won it with 57.1 % and 15 delegates against 42,9 % and 13 delegates for Hillary Clinton.

As was stated above Nebraska has a beauty contest Democratic Primary along with all their other downballot primaries (Washington state does the same thing). It will be interesting to compare the Primary and caucus results.

BTW one easy reform of the primary process would be to require states like Nebraska, Washington and Idaho that have  state run primaries to use them to allocate delegates.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Maine Democrats vote to abolish superdelegates on: May 07, 2016, 09:16:09 pm
Can they get run-offs finally? That would be even more democratic.

Ballot Initiative on the ballot this fall would institute IRV for all offices but President.

FF. Great idea, especially in a state like Maine.

I hope it passes. If it does there will probably be lawsuits but if one state can successfully institute IRV I think many would follow.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which pander was more cringeworthy? on: May 07, 2016, 09:13:22 pm
Carly Fiorina cheering for the Hawkeyes was by far the worst.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Maine Democrats vote to abolish superdelegates on: May 07, 2016, 09:10:49 pm
I'm beginning to like Maine more and more. If only LePage wasn't their governor.

LePage and Baker are actually the best New England governors lol.

LePage is a moron and a puke.     He's probably one of the worst governors in the country.   

Probably?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Maine Democrats vote to abolish superdelegates on: May 07, 2016, 09:09:49 pm
The DNC should mandate that all primaries should be closed and a simple vote.

Tough to mandate closed primaries when many states do not have party registration.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Maine Democrats vote to abolish superdelegates on: May 07, 2016, 09:07:44 pm
Can they get run-offs finally? That would be even more democratic.

Ballot Initiative on the ballot this fall would institute IRV for all offices but President.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Maine Democrats vote to abolish superdelegates on: May 07, 2016, 09:05:54 pm
A) National rules override state rules.  This resolution is voluntary this cycle and probably unenforceable in 2020 unless the rules are changed at the National Level.

B) Maine has already passed a Presidential primary for 2020. They still have to appropriate money for it but the Primary bill has been passed and signed.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Not so recent speculation on a Clinton-Klobuchar ticket on: May 07, 2016, 06:12:28 pm
Klobuchar has got to be one of the top 5 most boring members of the Senate. I seriously can't fathom people saying she's the "top choice" or "best choice". Based on what, tell me. What do you like about this woman? She's fine. I voted for her but she brings nothing to the table that 200 other generic Democratic office holders and former office holders wouldn't also bring. Seriously, why would you want her?

Disagree on boring. Always found her to be smart, eloquent and surprisingly funny.  Maybe it's a midwest thing.   
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What % of white women will Clinton get against Trump? on: May 07, 2016, 06:04:16 pm
50.0001%
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Not so recent speculation on a Clinton-Klobuchar ticket on: May 07, 2016, 06:01:21 pm
I am biased being from Minnesota but I think she would make an excellent VP.  I am also a big fan of Tim Walz (my congressman), would make an very good replacement for Klobuchar.

It would be to risky a pick but a VP candidate Al Franken would be fun.  One of the key roles of a VP candidate is to be the hatchet man/women going after the other parties presidential candidate. Can you imaging what Franken would do to Trump Smiley
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic Guam Caucus results thread (8pm Fri - 6am Sat ET) on: May 07, 2016, 12:57:03 pm
Wasn't Guam directly electing delegates, too?  Which matters for the Democrats, then?  Who won the beauty contest vote or which delegates won the most votes?

As with all Democratic contests, the beauty contest is what matters.

So what happens if 7 Clinton-supporting delegates win the delegate contest?  Do 3 have to agree to support Sanders on the first ballot or not go to the convention?

I believe the 4 Clinton Supporters with the highest vote totals and the top 3 Sanders supporters  will be the delegates. As a rule Democratic candidates have much more say on who their actual delegates are than Republican candidates.
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