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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: What really happened in 1980 on: September 25, 2012, 02:09:35 am
Another thing being ignored: The effect of Ted Kennedy's primary challenge, which probably explains much of Carter's troubles in the summertime. Kennedy did not give up until the day of his convention speech.

Take away the Ted Kennedy factor, and Reagan probably would have trailed the entire year until the debate.

The reason the Kennedy and Anderson campaigns existed at all was dissatisfaction with Carter.  The patriotic support only goes so far, as both Bushes can attest.  I lived through the election as a young adult and can attest that 'support' for Carter in any poll was either paper thin or given begrudgingly to avoid the right-wing.  Yeah, it would have been possible without those two to poll well right up till people cast their vote, but the outcome would be the same.

This is not the case with Obama.  He is liked and given due credit except by the extreme right.  The idea of an Obama collapse from 'false' polling responses is a chimera.
2  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Are the senate races a reason why Obama doesn't visit Indiana/Missouri/Montana? on: September 25, 2012, 01:36:59 am
Well, there's no way they'd waste money buying ads in the expensive Chicago market so that they could run statewide in Indiana.

Buy Indianapolis/Bloomington, GOTV in Gary?
3  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Were the GOP establishment wrong to back Romney so quickly ahead of Santorum? on: September 25, 2012, 01:12:13 am
@IDS Legislator SJoyceFla -- Herman Cain "superior" to Romney?  Yes he's claiming it, but you'd have to be just as unhinged to believe it.  Failed Republican contenders had one or more of the following problems: No Money, No Exposure, No Experience, No Policies, No Personality, No Grounding in Reality.  Gingrich was the least hindered of the rest of the field.  He or anyone else  would still have to win almost all the swing states, very daunting.  Plenty of people look good until they actually have to run the national campaign.
4  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Are the senate races a reason why Obama doesn't visit Indiana/Missouri/Montana? on: September 25, 2012, 12:13:50 am
I agree it has been a resource allocation issue.  It is definitely time to start spending in all three though.  Really, how much does a media buy cost in MT?  Latest poll has IN closer than any other R. lean state and a repeat win is definitely possible.  There was not the exposure of four years ago due to the primary, but that is what advertizing and campaigning is for.  Hell, I'd even run ads and/or visit GA & AZ.  Answer Mr. 47% with a 50 state campaign!

PS -- Regarding GA, I'm in Vietnam right now and I'm thinking Republicans must view I-95 as something akin to the Ho Chi Minh Trail.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Rand Paul: Medicare Is Socialism And Social Security Is A Ponzi Scheme on: July 12, 2010, 06:36:19 pm
You can not call Social Security a Ponzi Scheme as it is not fraudulent in any way, being the most open and discussed government program, nor for profit of any individual or group.  A definition from the Financial Dictonary:

A  fraudulent  investing  scam  that  promises  high  rates  of  return  at  little  risk  to  investors.  The  scheme  generates  return  by  acquiring  new  investors.

Social Security generates return by investment in US Govt securities.  Though some have balked at this being a low return, the return is quite high when adjusted for risk.  Further, for those who's "401ks are now 201ks" you can hardly claim it as the paragon of promising "high rates of return at little risk".

Further, it is actually SSI, the I being Insurance for death or disability.  When you consider what you get in the private insurance market, it is a great bargain.

You can call either Medicare or Social Security 'socialism', but for the vast majority of the world that is not derogatory, though that is what was intended.
6  Election Archive / 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re: Is McCain camp's effort to potray "Obama=Black+Muslim+Terrorist" work ? on: October 28, 2008, 11:59:31 pm
UPDATE:

Obama = Black + Muslim + Terrorist + Marxist + Pedophile

Have you forgotten the "He wants to teach sex to Kindergarteners" ad?  Aren't you afraid of how he'll turn the country Communist by restoring the same upper tax rate as George H.W. Bush?  Granted, it is less than under that secret Maoist Richard Nixon.

They have sunk so low and so far out.  They are scaring off far more moderates than the few wingnuts they are trying to appeal to.
7  Election Archive / 2008 Elections / Re: In which states will the polls be wrong? on: October 28, 2008, 09:26:11 pm
Possibly North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.  Those states always seem to poll more Democratic than they vote in Presidential elections. 

Those states always used to invalidate legitimate votes.  Kerry pledged to contest vote results but didn't.  Obama got it right by fighting for the voters to be counted before the election!

My pick, Indiana.  Twenty thousand plus at Obama rallies.  Mccain couldn't get that if he promised to eat Manning's shorts.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: Virgnia on: August 31, 2007, 10:24:32 pm
Any Dem now has a much better chance since Warner is retiring, and ex-Gov Warner is expected to run and pick up seat.  The poll is Giuliani v. Clinton which would be close, but I highly doubt Giuliani will win nomination.  Clinton stomps Romney and Thompson in national polls and that is strong evidence that she could close the 3-4% demographic lean.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Kean: "Liar" with "No Integrity" on: October 05, 2006, 12:37:24 am
Are you Bob Menendez's official spin doctor?
I report facts. You give spin. I am not doing this to help Menendez, just to put a drag on Kean.

Kean is already dragging himself down to the lowest depths quite effectively on his own, as the article points out, and as a new FDU poll will show tomorrow.  Menendez airing an ad quoting the Star Ledger, the editors of which are definitely not fans, is the best I've seen short of the Santorum voted against body armor ad.  If Kean sticks to the slime and refuses to debate, he is going down quick and hard.  In the end, the Republicans will not only have lost a slim chance at a pick-up, they will have lost a candidate with high name recognition and (undeserved) good will.  If this is the best they can field now, they will have a severely more difficult time with Lautenberg's seat.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Kean's Allegations Unraveling. on: September 22, 2006, 09:56:44 am
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-4/115881889653520.xml&coll=1

Ex-House lawyer sees no violation in Menendez rent deal
Thursday, September 21, 2006
BY JEFF WHELAN
Star-Ledger Staff
"  A former House ethics commit tee attorney, whom U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez said he consulted be fore entering into a rental deal that has come under fire, said yesterday there are no rules prohibiting congressmen from renting out personal property to tenants they help receive federal funds.

Ellen Weintraub, who served on the U.S. House of Representatives Ethics Committee from 1990 to 1996 and wrote the ethics manual at the time, said the rules regard ing when a member of Congress needs to recuse himself or herself from a matter because of a personal financial interest are "very, very narrow and often left to the member's discretion.

Weintraub said yesterday she did not recall a conversation with Menendez on the topic, but would not dispute it.

"During that time I had thou sands of conversations with hundreds of members of Congress. I have no reason to think I didn't have that conversation (with Me nendez). It certainly wouldn't be unusual," she said.

She said it was unlikely Menen dez violated house ethics rules.

"There is nothing about that that sounds like a violation of a rule as best as I can recall the rules," she said. "This doesn't strike me as a problematic transaction. But I don't have the details of the transaction in front of me." "


Above quote just to remind people what we're talking about here.  I think BlueJersey.com led the way in investigating and debunking the allegations.  I hope rest of MSM picks up on the true facts, though they are not the same sound bite as the allegations.

From an earlier post on another thread:

More bad new for Kean.  That big rental 'corruption' story?  Turns out there are archive reports that it Was Approved By the Ethics Commitee.  And the 'pay-off'?  The rent was $3100 a month for a HOUSE.  That will barely get you a 1 BR these days.  Commercial rents are much higher, $10 - $50 / sqFt.   So either the organization got a pretty good deal or this is the only 300 sqFt house in existence.   This is the second time he's tried to pull this and the second time people have pulled the contemporaneous reporting out of the memory hole.  This is going to bite Kean in the ass and he deserves it for Swiftboating.

http://mydd.com/story/2006/9/19/84152/0992
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: New Menendez Ad - War on: September 22, 2006, 09:42:04 am
I would add that 4) He needs to tag Kean as the desperate slimer that he is.  This is at least the second time that Kean has jacked him with bogus corruption allegations.  BlueJersey.com has excellent article shredding the charge, but MSM has only played up the allegations, not their baselessness.  He may want to stick to real issues, but that's what Kerry did.

Also, for lots of laughs, check out the reports of Kean camp getting caught trolling Dem blogs.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NJ: The Ads Have Begun on: September 19, 2006, 10:09:51 pm
More bad new for Kean.  That big rental 'corruption' story?  Turns out there are archive reports that it Was Approved By the Ethics Commitee.  And the 'pay-off'?  The rent was $3100 a month for a HOUSE.  That will barely get you a 1 BR these days.  Commercial rents are much higher, $10 - $50 / sqFt.   So either the organization got a pretty good deal or this is the only 300 sqFt house in existence.   This is the second time he's tried to pull this and the second time people have pulled the contemporaneous reporting out of the memory hole.  This is going to bite Kean in the ass and he deserves it for Swiftboating.

http://mydd.com/story/2006/9/19/84152/0992

13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Kean Requires Pay to Play on: September 19, 2006, 10:05:12 pm
More bad new for Kean.  That big rental 'corruption' story?  Turns out there are archive reports that it Was Approved By the Ethics Commitee.  And the 'pay-off'?  The rent was $3100 a month for a HOUSE.  That will barely get you a 1 BR these days.  Commercial rents are much higher, $10 - $50 / sqFt.   So either the organization got a pretty good deal or this is the only 300 sqFt house in existence.   This is the second time he's tried to pull this and the second time people have pulled the contemporaneous reporting out of the memory hole.  This is going to bite Kean in the ass and he deserves it for Swiftboating.

http://mydd.com/story/2006/9/19/84152/0992

14  Election Archive / 2006 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: (Internal D) Harstad Strategic Research: AZ Sen. Kyl (R) 47%, Pederson (D) 4 on: September 14, 2006, 09:40:03 pm
This race is folowing the pattern of TN, and I expect NV to folllow the pattern as well.  The incumbent in a state that demographicly leans to their party starts with a ridiculously large lead, only to have it evaporate to something reasonable come Labor Day.  These races are more likely to tighten than become blowouts.  The way things are going for Republicans this year, anyone dismissing the signs is whistling past the grave. 
15  Election Archive / 2006 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Strategic Vision: Kean(R) maintains lead over Menendez(D) on: September 14, 2006, 09:19:56 pm
I think this swing has more to do with Kean's aggressive smear campaign, now a second incident regarding a rental agreement.  This is probably not bad stategy on Kean's part as he needed to show the state was still in play.  It is more likely to cost him in the long run though.  How many times can you claim the other guy is about to be thrown in the slammer only to have the wild allegations disproven and shown to be totaly unfounded?
16  Election Archive / 2006 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Public Opinion Strategies: Lieberman(I) crushing his opposition on: September 09, 2006, 10:02:18 am
Outlier provided by a Republican pollster. I don't doubt Lieberman is ahead right now but I don't take this seriously.

They must be talking to them poll cats.
Bush/LIEberman poll made up
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NJ's Next Elected Senator, Bob Menendez on: September 05, 2006, 08:55:06 pm
Just got back from a long weekend in the Garden State.  Saw Menendez lawn signs everywherem not one (one!) for Kean.  This in upscale Republican heavy northern Bergen Co.  Local buzz, unsolicited, was no way could they vote for Kean if it meant more of the same Bush policies.  The only person more reviled was Chertoff who has really screwed the state, then comes to politic.

Kean has now joined the phony Republican 'I'm an anti-war liberal too', saying he would call for Rumsfeld resignation.  I don't think anyone believes that attitude will last longer than T-day turkey.   This from the same guy who criticized Menendez as pro-terrorist and wrongly accusing him of flip-flopping on Iraq war when he has always been opposed to it.  Iraq isn't even a bullet point on Kean's site, though it is number one in everyone's mind.  Foreign Policy is bullet #6, and only mentioned half-way down the page where the 'foreign fighter' myth is invoked after St. John McCain, and the same 'stay the course' rhetoric.  When people in stores are saying they don't understand why we're now fighting the Shia when before the Sunni were the problem, you can just feel the weight of the debacle that Kean can neither lift nor flee from. 
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AP: Collins endorses Lieberman on: August 23, 2006, 09:18:27 pm
I expect the vast majority of Republicans to endorse Lieberman. He is basically the Republican candidate in the race.

No, Lieberman's the 'defense' Democrat in this race

Dave
No, he is the Connecticut for Lieberman party candidate according to the filing with the Secretary of State.  That is the party Mr Lieberman chose.  He did not have to designate a party.  I could find no idication that he could not designate Democrat, though he would not get the party's reserved line.  It is clear that he has left the party.  You can not hold a party position if you not a member of the party.  Ask any Green Party member who's been expunged.  Why then hasn't DNC required his removal from such positions?  Haven't they been taken over by the radical majority?
19  Election Archive / 2006 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Survey USA: Macaca Impact?: Webb (D) Closes in on Allen (R) in Virgina on: August 22, 2006, 10:01:47 pm
You cannot predict Webb will win until he has taken the lead and he has yet to do so.
Huh? Who's rule is that?  Must have missed the meeting...  Isn't the nature of a prediction an extrapolation into the future, not a reiteration of the past?

Allen continues to make things worse, retracts his apology, blames media for his racist remarks.   This guy is looking goofier by the minute.  If he wraps himself in the confederate flag, it's over.  http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/8/22/142134/457
20  Election Archive / 2006 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Internal: Ford leads on: August 22, 2006, 09:25:49 pm
I saw this on DemocraticUnderground and am glad someone else put this up because I'm so sick of people saying this is impossible, ridiculous etc.  The pdf is very detailed and is worth review because it yields viable strategies.  Opposing a raise in the minimum wage in a state with lots of blue-collar workers is not one of them.

I remain optimisitic on TN though I accept others skepticism after past disappointments.   
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Memphis Commercial: Corker is having problems on: August 22, 2006, 12:29:30 am
There are over 4 million hits on Republican Real Estate Corruption including Hasert and others.  Does anyone have a comprehensive list?
22  Election Archive / 2006 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Jack Carter(D) cuts into John Ensign's(R) lead on: August 19, 2006, 07:29:43 pm
One other factor I'd like to through open to discussion is the green factor.  I did campaign work in Reno/Carson area.  Not only is it filled with ex-N.Californians who cashed out, it also has a lot of Sierra Club'ers who might be seen as conservative otherwise.  How is Bush's atrocious environmental record going to play?  Can Ensign be tagged for this?  Kerry seemed to write off the state after a lot of misrepresentation on his mining fee stance, but seemed very able to draw crossover voters on environment issues in the North.  Comments?
23  Election Archive / 2006 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Webb(D) within 5 pts of Allen(R) on: August 19, 2006, 07:04:46 pm
To say Webb is ahead now though would be a bit misguided
I didn't see anyone who had said that.  Unlike the saying though, not all publicity is good publicity.
24  Election Archive / 2006 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: Rasmussen: Webb(D) within 5 pts of Allen(R) on: August 19, 2006, 06:06:58 pm
Temporary bounce after the comment, lead will come back.
The most damaging aspects of the comment was the ridiculous "mohawk cacaca" justification and the non-apology apology.  This underscores what a lot of other people have been saying about Allen's 'unusual' character.  Right now, only Katherine Harris out does him on the wacko scale.  It won't go away because Allen still hasn't accepted that it exists as a problem.  There is no mention of it on his official web site, nothing in the press releases, nothing turns up in the site search bar.  Compare this with over 700,000 page hits in Google, or the over 1,000,000 hits on his Confedrate flag fetish.
25  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Stop Red State Welfare on: November 03, 2004, 06:10:22 pm
This is one of the many great paradoxes of our modern political era.

The states that favor the greatest degree of wealth redistribution in Washington are getting the least out of it...

States with the highest income levels overall are the most unfriendly to a president who cut their taxes the most...

Many people in "liberal" states who hate social conservatives have a lower divorce rate, and a lower rate of illegitimacy, than those living in conservative states who vote based more upon Christian values...

There are many paradoxes in modern political life that I can't quite figure out...

The states that suffered the most from the 9/11 attacks NY,NJ,CT,DC,PA all voted overwhelmingly against the the 'anti-terrorist' president.
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