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76  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Should we have a prediction contest? on: October 13, 2004, 08:41:22 am
I think it is a good idea and will be very entertaining.

Every active member have one entry and predicts:

1. Bush's and Kerry's popular vote percentage.
2. EV in each candidate's column.

Closest result in each category receives 1 point, second receives 2 points etc etc...

Picking the correct number of EV will receive a bonus of -5 points and picking the correct percentage of popular votes will receive a bonus of -10 points per candidate (popular votes percentage needs to be in the form of 47.2 and not 47.23).

Each member's points are then calculated and final standings announced.

The winner will have the bragging rights till election 2006 when we can play it with the midterms Smiley He will be also declared Atlas Forum Top Pollster for 2004

Contest should start Oct 26th and ends Nov 1st.

Anyone interested in taking part? It can be real fun. Post suggestions to make it more perfect and run as smooth as possible.
77  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: wisconsin? on: October 10, 2004, 02:06:08 pm
I think Wisconsin is about the same as the national average, or at least would be if the race was tight. Kerry cannot afford to lose it. It's hard to see him win without performing good in the Midwest.

Kerry can afford to lose Wisconsin but he won't lose it.

Gore states - Wisconsin + Ohio = 270
78  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: high expectations for kerry. on: October 07, 2004, 12:40:39 pm
Yes, the public expect more from Kerry now but they also expect more from Bush, being a president for the last 4 years.

I expect Kerry to be as strong as he was and I expect Bush to be better than the first debate. I don't think Bush's performance can be worse Smiley
79  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: AP Ipsos Says Kerry 50 Bush 46 on: October 07, 2004, 12:35:12 pm
Holy smoke...

Is this the 10th pole in the last 3 days or what? I already lost count of all the polls.

I am now waiting for Vorlon to come and say Bush is five up Smiley

Clearly the race is anywhere between Bush+1 and Kerry +1. The momentum is with Kerry and a good performance tomorrow will most likely make him the favorite.

80  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Election Night Return Question on: October 07, 2004, 12:31:28 pm
I don't know if sec of states will have real time results on their websites...

It might be the best option.

I was busy in 2002 and didn't check these sites. Anyone remember how fast their data was?
81  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: TIED in NH, Kerry +2 in Florida says ARG + NJ, PA, NM, and IN polls on: October 06, 2004, 12:09:16 pm
Your sources are obviously full of crap. Kerry is not tied in MO, he is not within a few points in MO, he is not going to win MO.

He also is not ahead or even tied in OH.

Uh uh...

say whatever you want but I am not Philip and my posts are not crap Smiley

If you check my past post you will find none of them is BS. Most of what I've said turned out to be true. So, don't dismiss my post without even knowing me. I will say no more.

I am here to have good debate without insults.

I will say it once again and you can bookmark my post and read it again on Nov3rd:

If Bush does not win the next 2 debates handily he will lose big. He will lose PA, OH and FL and there is no come back for him.

Bush needs to recover quick. Why do you think his major speech was scheduled for today? The Big Mo is with Kerry and next week it might be too late for Bush.

82  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kerry 49 / Bush 46 (LVs) in 'Jersey Says Quinnipiac + new PA, NM, and IN polls on: October 06, 2004, 11:53:28 am
I don't have 'poll evidence' but Kerry is making huge inroads in PA, OH and MO.

My sources are quite positive PA is in the bag and we're actually ahead in OH and tied in MO. The dem ground game in these states is astounding sofar and Bush have no idea of what is about to hit him on Nov2.

Mark my word - if Kerry wins Friday's debate in MO, my sources are positive that we will win the state.

P.S. They are also gunning for the big 3 (PA, OH, FL) and there is a ood chance Kerry wins them all.

Bush is on the defence and his 'major speech' today was nothing but rallying the faithfuls Smiley
83  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: cheney vs. edwards on: October 06, 2004, 02:36:57 am
No clear winner. Both had their highs and their lows.

The debate won't have any impact.

Cheney needed to destroy Edwards. He didn't.

Edwards needed to keep up with Cheney. He did.

What is the most interesting about the debate is it just showed what a complete moron Bush is. Cheney was times better than Bush. On Friday when people compare Bush to Cheney, they will realize it.

The democratic ticket keeps scoring points.

Roles are reversed from what they used to be 10 days ago. The Big Mo is with Kerry/Edwards thus Bush needs a clear victory on Friday. Anything less than a clear and convincing victory will move the election into 'like father like son - one term and you're done' teritory.
84  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: ARG says Kerry +3 on: October 05, 2004, 10:19:16 am
Just to add:

Voter ID:

Republicans: 35
Democrats: 38
Independents: 27

Seems like democrats are backing Kerry as much as republicans are backing Bush. Kerry leads among independents by 4-5 points.
85  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / ARG says Kerry +3 on: October 05, 2004, 10:15:00 am
John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied among all voters nationwide, with Kerry at 48% and Bush at 45%.

With Ralph Nader on the ballot, Kerry is at 47%, Bush is at 44%, and Nader is at 2%.

Among likely voters, Kerry is at 47% and Bush is at 46% in a two-way ballot and Kerry is at 46% and Bush is at 46%, with Nader at 2%, in a three-way ballot.

See the results among registered voters from the October 2-4 survey at 2004 Presidential Ballot.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com
86  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Gallup has a 16 point party ID swing in 7 days on: October 05, 2004, 10:12:29 am
I have no problem with polls showing party ID close to the turnout from the last presidential election.

So, I don't see why republicans complain from this poll? They didn't complain when it was showing Bush up 12 with oversampling republican voters...

Right now the race is anywhere from Bush +2 to Kerry +2.

I didn't expect such a big shift just from 1 debate. What I expected is a small shift in the momentum and by election day Kerry leading by 1.

Make no mistake about it. The country is polarized.

The party that turns out its voters on Nov2 wins.
87  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Laptops stolen from Bush campaign office on: October 03, 2004, 04:35:40 am
LOL

Give me a break. Why would Kerry camapign steal laptops?

88  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Kerry "won" - No minds were changed say ABC poll on: October 02, 2004, 12:59:12 pm
Keryr won - No minds changedn

It can very well be ture but in the after debate polls  Kerry improved his numbers in some crucial areas concerning the national security and he is very close to where he was before the Swift Boat ads started.

And we remember he was even or leading Bush at that time.

I said in another thread that trend takes time. Give it a week and we'll see if there is a gain or not.
89  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Today's Rasmussen Polls...No trend to Kerry on: October 02, 2004, 12:55:03 pm
Holy smokes guys!!!

You can't expect to see any gains within 2-3 days after the debate.

I can't say that where there will be or will be no positive trend for Kerry. But if there is some, it won't be as result of the debate performance but rather as a result of the spin game during the days following the debate.

Give it a week. People will read the news, will watch the sunday talk shows, will talk to their friends and coworkers...

We'll know if there is a trend just before the second debate.

I think there might be a 1 to 2 points gain for Kerry, which means 3 to 4 points Bush advantage in the polls.

If the second debate is anything like the first one, I think Bush supporters need to start worry.

90  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Who won the debate? on: September 30, 2004, 11:54:26 pm
Kerry won hands down.

I can't believe how bad Bush was. I mean... I expected more from him being a foreign policy debate. At one point I was wondering who the president is and who the challenger is.

Kerry is back in the game guys Smiley
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re:Cheney 2008? on: September 30, 2004, 11:31:52 am
Cheney is as electable as Kucinich.

Cheney won't run in 2008.
92  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:Detroit Free Press says Bush +2 LV/Kerry +2 RV in MI on: September 30, 2004, 11:26:12 am
Relax, kids Smiley

Michigan is safe Kerry Smiley

ACT closed shop 2 weeks ago and moved to OH and FL. It will be miracle if Bush comes within 6 points of Kerry in MI.
93  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:CNN/USA Today/Gallup 52/44 Bush (LVs) 53/42 (RVs) on: September 27, 2004, 03:53:46 pm
What are the internals of this poll?

My guess - it is again 8% or so republican friendly as their last poll was.

I predicted weeks before RNC that Bush will lead 4 to 5% after the convention and this lead will hold steady untill the debates. Turned out to be true. I believe Bush's lead is no bigger than 4 or 5% right now.

I will make another prediction now that the race will get tighter as we're approaching the final stretch of the campaign.

The final polls will look very much like 2000 final polls - a couple of points between the candidates.

For our republican friends - don't underestimate the hate towards Bush. Hate is a stronger feeling than love.

It will all come down to the GOTV effort.
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re:U.S. Senate on: September 24, 2004, 03:19:07 am
Philip, do a little research before you post.

My take on the senate races is:

Republicans seats switch to Dem - Alaska, Oklahoma, Colorado and Illinois. Net gain of 4 seats.

Democrat seats switch to Republican - South Carolina, Georgia,

3 seats too close to call - all 3 of them are currently Dem seats - Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina.

I really can't see a scenario where the republican net gain will be more than 2 seats.
95  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls / Re:Newsweek confirms Time Poll: Bush +11 on: September 04, 2004, 01:58:14 pm
Republicans outnumber democrats by 7% in this poll.

another point - military households are 42% to 58% non military households.

Both of these are way off.

Bush's lead is more likely 4 to 5 points. Something like 49 to 44. I said it last week. A week from now the race should be 49 to 44 in Bush's favor.
96  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:The Bounce begins: Bush up 11 on: September 03, 2004, 03:02:32 pm
There were numbers of polls the last  week and none of them showed this big bounce.

I would wait to see a couple more polls before declaring the election over Smiley

All of the polls show a dead heat race except this one.
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re:bush's chosen successor? on: August 31, 2004, 12:04:11 pm
Won't be Cheney.

Won't be Jeb for sure.

Bush might side with Bill Frist if he decides to run...

It is very hard to predict as it will also depend on Bush's hypothetical second term Smiley
98  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign / Re:Bush's "Short Term Economy" Problem on: August 31, 2004, 11:53:11 am
I don't think the job numbers will look good. I wish they would be 500,000 or even a million new jobs but I don't think it will happen.

Remember the July job report was a 5 week reporting period and even that didn't help. The  August report will be a 4 week reporting period.

My guess is job numbers below or arround 100,000.
99  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / Re:At long last, the Lucky Dog Battleground State Projection! on: August 31, 2004, 05:59:30 am
No no no

You're way off with your prediction.

If Bush is to win all thee states he will also win Nevada, West Virginia, Minnesota, Missouri and probably Washington.

I believe the electin won't be close. I see either a clear Bush win or a clear Kerry win.

The clear Bush win includes all your Bush states and the ones I mentioned above.

The clear Kerry win includes all Gore states plus Ohio, Florida, West Virginia, Nevada, Missouri, Virginia and probably North Carolina and Arkansas.

Both campaigns will go up another gear next week after Labor Day. There will be no more funds conserving and ads will start pouring big time. Lots of rallies, dirty campaigning and then of course the debates.

Kerry is a skillful debater and so is Bush. Debates will be very interesting.

And then of course is the ground game...

I predict 120 million votes cast this election. That is 15 million more voters than last election. This is one of the reason I think it won't be close.

Noone knows how these 15 million people will vote. But I think they will break 2 to 1 which is a clear gain of 5 million votes to the winner.

If we start with 50-50 million from the last election it means 60 million to 55 million in 2004 . It won't be close.

I just don't kow who will get the 5 million more votes - Bush or Kerry...
100  Election Archive / 2004 U.S. Presidential Election / What irritates me is... on: August 31, 2004, 05:43:51 am
That while national polls pretty much agree that the race is a dead heat (43 to 47 percent for both candidates) the state polls are all over the place.

I come to think that all these pollsters are pulling the numbers out of their a**es...

Today you see a state poll showing Kerry 6 ahead, next day you see another poll showing Bush 6 ahead.

What's the problem with all these state polls? How hard is it to have a reliable state poll?

Any comments will be appreciated.

Vorlon, what's your take on it?
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