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March 24, 2017, 11:11:52 am
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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Arab-Americans voters pre-9/11+War on Terror/Iraq vs. afterward on: March 23, 2017, 11:41:55 pm
A few years ago, there was some polling I think Zogby did on this (James Zogby being of Arab-American background himself) that found nearly all of the swing toward Democrats among Arab-Americans came from Muslim Arab-Americans going from a relatively split constituency to being an almost exclusively Democratic constituency. By comparison, Catholic Arab-Americans tended to be "lean R" in line with other non-Hispanic white Catholics, and Eastern Orthodox Arab-Americans tended to be about 50/50 split, with virtually no change before/after 9/11.

The Arab-American "experience" differs dramatically by religious affiliation. The majority of Arab Christians in America are 3rd+ generation Americans and often marry people of other ethnicities. There isn't a strong sense of ethnic identity outside of communities in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. They are, in a lot of respects, not all that different politically from other "white ethnics" like the Italians or the Irish or the Greeks. By contrast, there were very few Muslim Arabs immigrating to the US until the late 20th century. You have a lot more first-generation immigrants, with the added burden of belonging to a religious minority. So I think there is definitely a heightened sense among Muslim Arab-Americans of being an "out group" that is actively viewed with suspicion and hostility by the majority.
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Describe a Gore-Bush-Obama-Romney-Trump voter on: March 22, 2017, 10:45:39 pm
A moderate Republican would far more likely have been a Bush-Kerry voter than a Gore-Bush one.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So Booker is less black than Obama? on: March 20, 2017, 10:26:51 pm
Most "full" black people in America would be at least 25% European if they took a DNA test. Some might even be majority European.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NBC: Alabama May Allow Church to Form Own Police Force on: March 20, 2017, 09:56:29 pm
What is it they call the state? The monopolization of legitimate force? I guess it's all over now.

We're entering our Lebanon/Palestine phase where each political faction/religious sect has its own armed brigades to protect their respective populations and neighborhoods.
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Calling Bernie Sanders “Bernie” on: March 19, 2017, 03:21:38 pm
Can't stand it. Same with "Hillary".

Hillary had the problem of people otherwise not knowing which "Clinton" was being referred to.

And Hillary is a very unusual name for someone of her generation to have, so it's far more distinctive in a way that wouldn't work if her name was Susan or Karen.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Districts that elected 3 different people in 2012, 2014, and 2016 on: March 19, 2017, 03:21:03 am
TX-23 counts for 2008-2010-2012-2014: Rodriguez-Canseco-Gallego-Hurd

I've found at least one longer streak from Connecticut's 2nd district:

1934: William L. Higgins (R)
1936: William J. Fitzgerald (D)
1938: Thomas R. Ball (R)
1940: William J. Fitzgerald (D)
1942: John D. McWilliams (R)
1944: Chase G. Woodhouse (D)
1946: Horace Seely Brown, Jr. (R)
1948: Chase G. Woodhouse (D)
1950: Horace Seely Brown, Jr. (R)
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you rather have Dubya back as President or keep Trump? on: March 18, 2017, 12:09:31 am
At this point, I'd be perfectly fine with going back to the real estate bubble-fueled salad days of the 2000s when we could pretend everything was okay even though it wasn't.

Now, it's so glaringly obvious that everything's not okay.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Districts that elected 3 different people in 2012, 2014, and 2016 on: March 17, 2017, 08:36:14 pm
What is the record for longest streak of a CD electing someone different in every consecutive election?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-18: Mast connected to marketing company under federal investigation on: March 16, 2017, 10:02:02 pm
I saw in a photo that he lost his leg, but has a new one.  I wonder if he's the first person in Congress who's lost a leg? 

The district is swingy.  I guess Patrick Murphy could run for it again.

Uh, Max Cleland was missing both of his legs and an arm due to his Vietnam War service.

Dan Inouye lost an arm in WWII.

There have pretty much always been amputees in Congress due to wars.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Health insurance for the asset rich? on: March 16, 2017, 07:43:46 pm
You seem to be suggesting it's okay for the government to tell people they have to choose between the roof over their head and not dying from lack of health insurance.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rex Tillerson used e-mail alias at Exxon (and may have deleted records) on: March 14, 2017, 04:56:01 pm
But her emails.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: So who do you vote for if you're moderate but not a socialist/communist? on: March 13, 2017, 08:17:35 pm
The choices today:

1) Vote Republican - support a party that is outwardly racist, starts ridiculous wars, just generally promotes a crappy culture.

2) Vote Democrat - support a party that wants your taxes redistributed to millennials who don't want to work.

Seeing the views of members like "white trash" makes me question why I even vote Democrat.  Both parties pretty much suck currently, but at least I'd personally benefit from voting Republican.

I'm a millennial and I work. Most of my taxes are going to support old racist white Boomers and Silent Generation-ers, or to support the young children of millennials who also work (Generation Z?).

So I vote Democratic because I don't want to be associated with the party of Southern racism and white grievance politics.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who was more disliked among coal miners on: March 13, 2017, 08:15:06 pm
I'll say Thatcher.

In the UK case, coal was essentially being subsidized by the government and Thatcher directly ordered the closure of mines rather than have the government operate them at a loss.

In the US case, Obama did not personally do anything to hurt the coal mines - he simply declined to use government resources to prop them up. (Even with a severely defanged EPA, coal isn't economical in the present, and to the extent it is, it's the open pit mines out in Wyoming that stand to benefit, not the Appalachian mines that are largely depleted.)

Thatcher killed a patient by taking them off life support.

Obama simply declined to assist a dying patient.

People in Britain were literally cheering in public when Maggie died. I seriously doubt people in West Virginia or Kentucky could be incited to get that animated about Obama's death.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rep. Steve King (R-IA) has officially gone full White Nationalist on: March 13, 2017, 08:00:24 pm
Western Civilization is great, but it has nothing to do with the "white race."  Half of it comes from the Middle East anyway.
Perhaps the Census Bureau is on to something?
I don't get it?

IIRC, Americans of Middle Eastern descent fall into the category of "White" in the census.

We do. But there's going to be a separate "Middle Eastern/North African" category on the 2020 census for the first time.

The whole reason MENA Americans are counted as white to begin with is because when immigrants from the Levant started arriving in the late 19th century, some people wanted to consider them Asian (what with them being from the continent of Asia). And since being anything other than white in America in the 1890s was a miserable, hellish existence, they fought tooth and nail through the court system to be counted as white.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rep. Steve King (R-IA) has officially gone full White Nationalist on: March 12, 2017, 11:45:36 pm
Democrats have Keith Ellison, Republicans have Steve King.

This sort of false equivalency is getting annoying. No one in office on the Democratic side is anywhere close to being like Steve King.
Congressman Hank Johnson called Jews in Judea and Samaria "termites". Pretty sure that's much more extreme than anything King has said here.

There are worse things you could say about people who are in wanton violation of international law.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Rep. Steve King (R-IA) has officially gone full White Nationalist on: March 12, 2017, 11:44:39 pm
Democrats have Keith Ellison, Republicans have Steve King.

This sort of false equivalency is getting annoying. No one in office on the Democratic side is anywhere close to being like Steve King.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NE-2: Anne Ashford? on: March 12, 2017, 06:13:42 pm
Ashford's problem, if I remember correctly, was that he didn't take his fundraising seriously and had initially refused national help. He got better as the campaign went on, but his slow start is probably what did it in for him in the end.

I'm at least happy to see Democrats aren't giving up on this district. It's definitely winnable for them.

Patrick Stewart meme - Why the @#$% would you refuse national help??!!!
18  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: should students be allowed to record instructors? on: March 12, 2017, 05:42:38 pm
I can see your professor's "point", Sanchez, but, as you stated, it has a lot of obvious weaknesses. Being in a class is more than just lecture material. Otherwise, professors would serve the same function as a textbook. Classes involve assignments, papers, assessments, questions asked after hours or by email, and official recognition of having performed to a certain level in regards to a certain subject.

It's probably more of an issue now, in the Coursera/edX era as many universities are trying to create a new revenue stream by having people pay to take mini-online courses through these platforms in exchange for a "certificate" that doesn't actually mean anything.

They don't want any lecture recordings coming out that they can't make money off of.
19  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Raise the retirement age on: March 12, 2017, 05:09:47 pm
I don't favor policies that screw over young people.

How does it hurt young people to not be paying for a 66 year old's pension?

I would rather raise the retirement age and at least get a reasonable pension than retire on a below subsistence pension, or worse, see the state pension abolished.

The real screwing over of young people was getting rid of defined benefit schemes, that pretty much ensures we get to retire into poverty in any case.

Ironically it was young Gen-X'ers in the 1990's that drove the end of defined benefit plans. Workers in the new rapidly growing tech sector didn't want to stay with one firm more than a few years - in fact tech firms looked suspiciously at applicants who had worked 5 or more years with one company (my wife was working in that industry at that time). That meant those employees couldn't vest in a retirement plan, so they'd rather have their benefits in a 401k - originally designed as a supplement to a basic defined benefit pension. Eventually other older companies followed suit to compete for talent and keep pension costs down compared to the newer tech firms. Now the 401k is the supplement to Social Security which is the only defined benefit plan most workers see.

You're describing the upper end of the labor market. People working in factories weren't asking for "flexibility." They had it forced on them when some private equity firm bought their employer, loaded it up with debt so it could file for bankruptcy and get rid of its pension obligations, and then reincorporate as a new entity with no pensions.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Politico: Trump and the decore of dictators on: March 12, 2017, 04:58:47 pm
The arrangement of the furniture is so bizarre. You'll be seated too far away from anyone else to have a conversation and in some cases wouldn't even be facing them.

What are people who are in this room supposed to be doing?
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Florida Man Strikes Again! on: March 12, 2017, 04:57:27 pm
I oppose the death penalty, but would be willing to make an exception for hate crimes against Sikhs who the perpetrator thought were Muslim.

People who make that mistake should be executed for the crime of wanton stupidity.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will any Democratic candidates convert to Islam to get a boost? on: March 12, 2017, 02:46:02 am
How about some kind of moderate hero stance on Jesus's divinity?

I don't think we're ready for an Arian president.

Well, we've had multiple Unitarian presidents, who did not believe in the divinity of Christ but adhered to Christian theology otherwise. For many years, Unitarianism was the denomination of choice for Boston Brahmins.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Imperial/Modern Russian Flag vs. Soviet Union Flag on: March 12, 2017, 02:22:29 am
Tricolors are always better.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If libertarians were smart, they'd try growing their (D) wing now on: March 11, 2017, 04:00:36 am
Part of the problem is the asymmetry of where the Libertarian base comes from.

Libertarians tend to be people who care more about economic issues than about foreign policy issues. There really isn't a libertarian foreign policy.

But foreign policy is basically the only thing about libertarians that would appeal to Democrats, especially now that the Democrats have embraced a more or less soft-libertarian position on immigration, crime and drug policy.
Social policy and foreign policy and civil liberties.

And I'd qualify it as "Republican Libertarians tend to be people who care more about economic issues."

There are many Democrats who put foreign and social policy first, and think the bureaucracy is too much, but don't want to see cuts hurt vulnerable people. So if they have a libertarian-esque economic policy that's acceptable to people with that view, then you could see more Libertarian Democrats. And they'd be able to work across the aisle with Libertarian Republicans in areas they agree.

Or they could vote for the Greens and get the same thing, with an economic policy that's much more palatable to them.

Very few voters in general put foreign policy first unless there's a war going on. It tends to be more of an "elite" preoccupation of the sort of people who work at think tanks or are somehow politically involved.

"Think the bureaucracy is too much but don't want to see cuts hurt vulnerable people" describes the majority of American voters, nearly all of whom vote for either the Republicans or the Democrats because they see that as being compatible with that position.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 proved something significant on: March 10, 2017, 10:19:32 pm
Marco Rubio had the most embarrassing downfall since perhaps Gay Hart

What about Giuliani in 08'?

That wasn't embarrassing, just woefully ill-informed.

"I can win the GOP nomination by coasting on 9/11 and wooing the two dozen old New York Jews in South Florida who are Republicans."
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