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1  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why was Michigan so Republican in the 1920s? on: Today at 09:08:33 pm
Not everyone in Michigan was a union auto plant worker - this was even more true in the 1920s.

You had a lot of small towns and farming communities full of German and Dutch people (two very Republican ethnic groups, historically).
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why does Oklahoma have so many registered democrats? on: Today at 09:06:54 pm
-Texas's 2003 redistricting wasn't gerrymandering; it was simply removing an archaic highly pro-Democrat gerrymander.
The maps passed in 2001 were agreed to by a divided legislature (Democratic House, Republican Senate) and a Republican governor (Rick Perry). If it was a "pro-Democrat" gerrymander, that's more of an indictment of the competence of Perry and the Republicans than it is any perfidy on the Democrats' part.
There were no congressional or legislative maps passed in 2001. A state district court drew a map that was probably the fairest ever drawn. The judge then said he had a few "tweaks" that Democratic House Speaker Pete Laney had requested. When the judge released his final maps there had been major changes. The Texas Supreme Court overturned his decision on grounds that it violated due process.

The Federal District Court which had held off considering the case had to act. They admitted that as a federal court, they did not have the authority to totally disregard the 1991 Democrat gerrymander since that had been passed by Texas. They drew two new Republican seats and unkinked a few of the more bizarre borders, but they admitted they were preserving the Democratic gerrymander.

Meanwhile the Legislative Redistricting Board drew new House and Senate boundaries, undoing decades of Democratic gerrymanders. The legislative boundaries were the first since the 1960s to remain unchanged by legal action for the remainder of the decade.

In 2003, the legislature fulfilled their obligation to draw congressional districts, despite efforts by the Democrats to break quorum.

Yeah, districts that were in such flagrant violation of the VRA that a court had to order a new map for the 2006 elections.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: R. Perry accepted Sec of Energy position without knowing what the Dept. does on: January 18, 2017, 10:21:23 pm
At least now it makes more sense that he wanted to eliminate the DoE when he was running for president in 2012.

Clearly he thought it was just a big public relations department for the oil and gas industry.
4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why does Oklahoma have so many registered democrats? on: January 18, 2017, 10:17:20 pm
The state doesn't appear to have an ancestral democratic domination like many areas in the south, so why are there so many registered democrats there?

Oklahoma abandoned the Democratic party a lot earlier than other Southern states in Presidential elections. But local offices were still competitive between democrats and republicans despite that. As with the national geographic realignment and the Southern local parties. The local branch declined eventually but a lot slower than the national democratic party. However a lot of people who registered democrats who might not of voted democrats they changed registration a lot slower than for example neighboring Texas which also used to have a democratic plurality of the registered voters. And thats mainly because the process in Oklahoma was for a long time having to go to a court house to change registration which for many people wasnt worth the process. However if i hear this right, the state government made it a lot easier and the number of registration changes to the GOP from longtime republican voting registered dems is going really fast which made the registration difference from double digits to single digits as of current.

Except that Texas doesn't register people with parties.

But in terms of primary participation, yes, Democratic primary turnout was usually higher than Republican primary turnout in Texas up until the 2000s.

Also, it is interesting to note that when Texas Republicans tried to ram through a massive Gerrymandering of state districts, that Texas Democrats fled over the border to Oklahoma...

It was actually kind of a legendary action from an historical perspective, and things got a bit crazy when the Texas Rangers were deployed to fetch Dem lawmakers out of their hotel in Oklahoma...

http://www.voanews.com/a/a-13-a-2003-05-15-27-texas-67309472/381313.html

Interestingly enough, historically both Texas and Oklahoma used to have the most active Socialist support way back in the '20s and '30s.

-Texas's 2003 redistricting wasn't gerrymandering; it was simply removing an archaic highly pro-Democrat gerrymander.

The maps passed in 2001 were agreed to by a divided legislature (Democratic House, Republican Senate) and a Republican governor (Rick Perry). If it was a "pro-Democrat" gerrymander, that's more of an indictment of the competence of Perry and the Republicans than it is any perfidy on the Democrats' part.

In pre-2003 Texas, you could have Democrats get a majority of CDs while losing the statewide House PV for the same reason Democrats today can win a presidential vote by 2% but lose the EC. Geography, geography, geography.
5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Why does Oklahoma have so many registered democrats? on: January 18, 2017, 09:42:09 pm
The state doesn't appear to have an ancestral democratic domination like many areas in the south, so why are there so many registered democrats there?

Oklahoma abandoned the Democratic party a lot earlier than other Southern states in Presidential elections. But local offices were still competitive between democrats and republicans despite that. As with the national geographic realignment and the Southern local parties. The local branch declined eventually but a lot slower than the national democratic party. However a lot of people who registered democrats who might not of voted democrats they changed registration a lot slower than for example neighboring Texas which also used to have a democratic plurality of the registered voters. And thats mainly because the process in Oklahoma was for a long time having to go to a court house to change registration which for many people wasnt worth the process. However if i hear this right, the state government made it a lot easier and the number of registration changes to the GOP from longtime republican voting registered dems is going really fast which made the registration difference from double digits to single digits as of current.

Except that Texas doesn't register people with parties.

But in terms of primary participation, yes, Democratic primary turnout was usually higher than Republican primary turnout in Texas up until the 2000s.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump sued for defamation by Apprentice contestant on: January 18, 2017, 02:40:29 am
If he can be convicted we can begin the impeachment.

Don't get too excited, it's a civil case

The basis for Clinton's impeachment was that he committed perjury when testifying in a civil case.
7  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: U.S Ambassador Appointments on: January 17, 2017, 01:34:05 am
Given everything going on in Europe (Brexit, EU issues, Putin getting aggressive), I'm not sure we can afford to fill those positions up with cupcake donors like we usually do.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump aging as President on: January 17, 2017, 01:13:24 am
What year do you think we will start to see the effects the Presidency is having on Trump? For Obama, by the time we got to 2010/2011, you could start to see the grey hairs and wrinkles coming in.

...you do realize he dyes his hair, right?

It wouldn't surprise me if he had a facelift or Botox or something in a couple of years, like his kindred spirit Berlusconi.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Texas Senate 2018... Who will be the Dem nom ...O'Rourke or Castro? on: January 15, 2017, 09:35:21 pm
My guess is that Joaquin Castro would win such a primary, and he would be the stronger GE candidate. Being Hispanic and from the more populous side of Texas are net positives in both the primary and the general, I'd imagine.

I hope O'Rourke doesn't run. I like him in the House and I think he'd be a bad statewide candidate.

O'Rourke has imposed term limits on himself so he's retiring from the House either way.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Poland's foreign minister mocked after naming non-existent country... on: January 15, 2017, 04:42:39 am
The People's Democratic Republic of San Escobar now has a Wikipedia article and a Twitter account.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama tells dry-foot Cubans to get wet on: January 15, 2017, 04:20:04 am
No reason the Cubans should get any special privileges other foreign asylum seekers do not get.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Could Paul Ryan be in trouble in 2018 if there is a backlash? on: January 14, 2017, 12:45:38 am
His district is gerrymandered just enough (about 1/3rd of Waukesha County, missing out on close to half of Rock County), that it would take a incredibly massive wave to flip the seat. Ryan wouldn't have lost numerous times if there would have been a fair map where Waukesha County wasn't split in two, like it was before 2002.

Fake news! Ryan's district had about 6500 voters in Waukesha County even in the 2000 election.

At the time, Waukesha County was split into 3 districts, with about 113k votes in the 9th district, 76k in the 4th district, and 6k in the 1st district as of the 2000 elections.

Of course, at the time, extremist Tammy Baldwin had nearly lost the 1998 and 2000 elections in the 2nd district. So David Obey carved out a safer district for her, which is why Democrats mostly supported that redistricting plan. Wisconsin was losing a district at the time, so the 4th and 5th were merged and some of the excess had to go into Ryan's district.


I missed the the tiny sliver that went into Waukesha County and I am not saying that the Democrats are innocent when it comes to the mess that is Wisconsin's congressional map. Incumbent protection plans can be just as bad as partisan gerrymanders. I had a class with John Sharpless, fun guy regardless of his political views.



Wow, apparently the 2nd district (Madison) had a Republican representative in the '90s.
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Does Trump's rise prove the tea party was about race? on: January 12, 2017, 01:27:31 am
If we are going to have any hope of decent race relations in this country we have to dispel the notion that wanting less taxing has anything to do with racism.  Calvin Coolidge fought for civil rights while also being very fiscally conservative.  

If you advocate cutting programs that help the poor when non-white people are disproportionately more likely to be poor than whites are, the burden of proof is on you to prove your intentions are not racist.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Who was the most pro Israel president and most anti Israel president on: January 10, 2017, 01:51:14 pm
The only presidents who ever put any significant pressure on Israel to do something they didn't want to do were Eisenhower, Carter and Bush Sr.

At the other end, Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon were Israel's biggest "enablers."
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TX-3: Sam Johnson retiring on: January 10, 2017, 01:01:13 pm
Van Taylor close to formally entering the race.
No surprise, instant front-runner.

"Moving Van" Taylor found another seat he wants to buy with mommy and daddy's money. Yay!
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Republicans, are you willing to admit you poisoned the well? on: January 09, 2017, 07:00:24 pm
As the Democrats did in 2009, you control the presidency and both houses of congress.

And now, just as you did to Obama, the Democrats will reflexively and even mindlessly oppose and obstruct every single thing you try to do.

And you have a smaller Senate majority and a president who a majority of the country already dislikes.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you have any regrets? on: January 09, 2017, 04:52:27 pm
I don't regret that I voted for Hillary, but I regret that our party put me in a position where I, a lifelong Republican, felt I had to do so to allow my voice to be heard.  Didn't work or anything, but in the voting booth I felt like I couldn't vote for my party's nominee, and that was a pretty sad moment.  Especially because I do believe in the party.

Do you have to be so self-indulgent all the time?

"Lifelong Republican." You're old enough to have voted in, what, two, maybe three presidential elections?

And in 2020 you're once again going to have to choose between Orange Hitler and whoever the Democrats happen to nominate.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump orders all Obama-appointed ambassadors to leave by Jan. 20, no exceptions on: January 06, 2017, 08:23:12 pm
Tangential, but the way we do ambassadorships in this country is nuts. Nearly all other countries have career FSOs handling this kind of thing, not ex-politicians getting a nice pre-retirement gig or donors who bought themselves a several-year government paid vacation in a foreign country. Ambassadorships should be for diplomats, not hacks.

Whether Dem or Rep, I should add

Agreed. I've never understood why this part of the "spoils system" has been retained over a century after the first civil service reforms began.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: TX-3: Sam Johnson retiring on: January 06, 2017, 08:10:40 pm
Clearly Safe R, but who runs?

Van Taylor seems to have first refusal. It's been pointed out though that the Texas Senate is a pretty good gig and jumping ship for Congress is actually uncommon for State Senators

Huh, I've actually heard of Van Taylor.

He has a very punchable looking face and is a total weasel.

He got elected to the state house in 2010 running as this Tea Party Outsider Non-Politician. Never mind that he had already run for congress in the 17th district against Chet Edwards in 2006 and lost. And before that, he was living in some ritzy New York suburb working in finance. He went to Harvard and inherited a ton of family money.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump says he’d probably run as independent if he doesn’t win Republican Nom on: January 05, 2017, 03:07:21 am
Perot ran as a centrist (on some issues at least).  Trump ran to the right of the GOP on many issues.

Immigration. That's all. He was to the left of GOP orthodoxy, at least rhetorically, on virtually everything else.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why did Hillary Clinton swing towards an extreme pro-abortion position? on: January 05, 2017, 03:06:06 am
Sometimes what's right isn't what's popular. Hence her hesitancy to embrace Bernie Sanders' dishonest "free everything" platform (though he certainly pulled her to the edge).

Healthcare and college are not "everything."

Quite rich coming from you, considering you get free healthcare and very cheap college tuition in your country.
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which Dulles Brother was better on: January 04, 2017, 02:17:30 am
Read The Devil's Chessboard to learn just how evil and sinister Allen Dulles was.
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: MO gov tells rich people to go pound sand on: January 04, 2017, 02:07:56 am
Taxpayer funded stadiums are the biggest scam around.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH: JD Vance planning to run statewide on: January 03, 2017, 02:44:08 am
J.D. Vance wrote an op-ed in the NYT today titled "Barack Obama and Me".

http://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/02/opinion/barack-obama-and-me.html?_r=0


Some reactions to this include:

Laurence Tribe ‏@tribelaw  3h3 hours ago
We're told to like JD Vance's written reflections, but his op-ed seems shallow & self-indulgent: Barack Obama and Me

Jeff B/DDHQ @EsotericCD  1h1 hour ago
What we think but don't say out loud: JD Vance is the white Ta-Nehisi Coates. Pretty voice saying little of real importance about race/class

25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will be the Libertarian and Green Party nominees? on: December 28, 2016, 03:24:50 pm
Gary Johnson and Jill Stein both lost any credibility this election.

Johnson had the chance to be a legitimate third party alternative but couldn't put the bowl down long enough to prepare.

Stein spent the whol election insisting there is no difference between Trump and Clinton, and then scammed foolish leftists out of $7M when things...went awry.
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