Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 08, 2016, 11:10:07 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 292
1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Game-Changer? Republicans now more critical of free trade than Democrats on: December 07, 2016, 07:55:08 pm
This could hold through the next decade, I'm not sure, but it is worth noting that Republicans were very in favor of free trade during the Bush Administration (when it was pushing for free trade deals) years, while Democrats were very against it ... put a Democrat pushing for free trade in the White House, and everyone just magically changed their opinions.  If Trump signed the world's biggest free trade deal and told his supporters it was a GREAT deal, they'd support it.

This is how some (not all) Bernie supporters end up being Republicans if Trump wins a 2nd term.

Meh, I doubt it ... the important thing here is that nearly every demographic - including Democrats and liberals - were in favor of protectionism.  It's the atmosphere of our country right now.  If you're part of the Democratic leadership, you aren't going to be pushing through any free trade deals, especially when the core of your party - not to name the vast majority of your elected representatives and Senators - oppose them.

On another note, I found it shocking that people making over $100,000 were MORE protectionist than those making under $50,000...  Maybe CrabCake is on to something.

Probably because >$100K are more likely to be Republican, which in turn makes them less supportive of free trade.

I don't think any of this has anything to do with hard-coded ideology. Most people, including most educated/high income people, do not think about policy to the extent that people who post on here do. They think what their "team" wants them to think. This isn't about trade; it's about trade as an instrument for grievance about what America is/should be. It's a stand-in for whether you want an open, pluralistic society (Democrats), or a closed, traditional society (Republicans).
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which republicans would have won virginia? on: December 06, 2016, 06:39:23 pm
To win VA/CO, the Republican would need to move left on social and cultural issues.

Meanwhile, Trump proved that to win the Upper Midwest, the GOP could not run a doctrinaire supply sider.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Brandstad Leaving in Iowa? on: December 04, 2016, 06:53:42 pm
Ambassadorship in China is a polital graveyard



4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: JBE's governorship on: December 04, 2016, 06:49:39 pm
But isn't it grossly unfair on Louisiana's, Mississippi's and Kentucky's governors who want to run for president?
Hadn't their legislatures better move their gubernatorial elections to an even-number year?

Those decisions were made well before the era of the modern presidential campaign, back when a party's "primary" basically consisted of a few weeks of reaching out to delegates (mainly from your own state) and then going to the convention to begin the smoke-filled room process.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Some Clinton electors lobbying for EC protest votes? *UPDATE* 7 Dem electors going faithless on: December 03, 2016, 08:33:24 pm
The Electoral College does not have to be abolished, and it won't.

What needs to happen is that the Electors have to be obligated, by law, to vote for the winner of the state for which they are an Elector.

And a 19 year Elector?

Wanting to make a statement?

How stupid is that?
I like this post a lot. My only quibble is that we can't speak in total certainty about the future of our country, let alone the EC.

Thank you.

You are, of course, correct that we cannot say anything about the future with absolute certainty.

However, I think we can all agree that the abolition of the Electoral College would be a very long, drawn out, bitter affair.

And constitutionally, I believe I can say that more likely than not, at least in the immediate future, and by that I mean a considerable length of time, that any attempt to abolish the Electoral College is more likely to fail than to succeed.    
Yep. Thanks for the naunce.
It can get lonely sometimes defending the EC on the internet. You're welcome, fellow EC supporter. Smiley

Indeed, I am a firm supporter of the Electoral College.

It gives smaller states more say in the election.  

If the election for President was based completely on the popular vote, by far most of the attention from the parties and the candidates would be spent on the large states, California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, New Jersey.

The Electoral College system gives more influence to smaller states, and a better balance for Presidential elections.

Yes, how dare most of the attention go to the places where most of the people live!
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump: There is no global flag. There is no global citizenship. on: December 03, 2016, 07:56:15 pm
Nationalists are the elite's useful idiots.

You got that wrong. Globalists are the elite's useful idiots. How else could they undermine national labor and environmental laws by opening up free trade with nations that fall far below our standards, without the help of the useful globalist cheerleader idiots here at home?

Marx had it backwards. He thought the proletariat would unite across borders and defeat bourgeois nationalism. Ultimately, it was the bourgeoisie who united across borders and are now running up against proletarian nationalism.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Thomas E Clintnon on: December 01, 2016, 10:36:06 pm
Shouldn't those say Madame President?

Or is Hillary now managing a brothel?
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: You mark my words: if dems run away from 3rd way clintonionism, an abyss awaits on: November 29, 2016, 08:37:41 pm
LOL.  No.  Democrats lost precisely because they didn't realize how many "deplorables" were actually voting for their Black nominee twice, and the types of folks who post on here had deluded themselves to believing that a candidate actually got elected on the backs of solely benevolent White liberals in big cities, PhD holders and all of the lovable minorities that seek their protection.  Such a coalition would get about 30% of the popular vote, of course.

Well, the "Deplorables" are in your party now. You couldn't have won the election without them. Have fun with that.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump and United Technologies reach agreement to keep Carrier jobs in Indiana on: November 29, 2016, 08:31:17 pm
We don't know the details.

For all we know the 1,000 jobs could be 1,000 temporary positions that pay $7.25 an hour and will end on January 21, 2017.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CO-Gov 2018: Early Prospects on: November 29, 2016, 01:00:29 am
Somehow, "not being liberal enough" hasn't hurt D candidates in Colorado. The one emerging weak spot is the far south for Democrats. I think Salazar might be a good choice.

I wouldn't go that far. Hickenlooper, Clinton, and Udall all have seen shrinking margins with working class people in Pueblo and Adams, as well as really poor youth turnout in Denver and Boulder. Dems can win with Hickenlooper-esque candidates at the top of the ticket, but they can't win big enough to drag candidates for downballot races across the finish line like Ritter did in 06 or Obama did in 08 or 12.

But I think it's less about Left vs. Right and rather about how cozy you are to the business interests you are supposed to stand up against. Salazar is a bad standard bearer for that. And he hasn't won an election in Colorado since 2004.

Hickenlooper is fairly moderate. Udall's problem is that he ran as a shrill liberal who wouldn't stop talking about abortion. It was like the male Democratic version of Marilyn Musgrave ('member her?).
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: WI: Russ Feingold for Governor? on: November 29, 2016, 12:57:38 am
They badly need to find someone who can communicate with rural voters. Not someone from Milwaukee or Madison.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Al Gore 2020? on: November 28, 2016, 12:09:30 am
I've seen his name mentioned a couple of times for 2020 I also saw some rumors about him leading up to 2016. He would have instant 100% name recognition and be a fundraising juggernaut but he will be 72 and will not have been on a ballot in 20 years

If it has been so long since you've held office that there are people old enough to vote who have no recollection of you holding office, you don't have 100% instant name recognition.

There will be voters in 2020 who were not alive when Al Gore was vice president or ran for president.

It would be like if Walter Mondale ran for president in 2000.
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Alabama vs. Mississippi on: November 27, 2016, 06:58:43 pm
You also have that large swath of northern Alabama that really isn't Southern at all and has more in common historically and culturally with Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee.
14  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Can one be a pro-choice social conservative? on: November 27, 2016, 03:20:25 am
You could be extremely opposed to out-of-wedlock births and single motherhood, to the point that you think allowing abortion is the preferable alternative.

Arguably, 21st century social conservatives have made the opposite choice: they've become more rabidly antiabortion at the cost of tacitly condoning single motherhood and illegitimacy.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CO-Gov 2018: Early Prospects on: November 25, 2016, 05:37:06 pm
A Walker Stapleton candidacy would let us see if being a member of the Bush family is so politically toxic nowadays that it hurts even when you don't carry the family name yourself.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Arkansas State House: Another Democrat Switches to GOP on: November 25, 2016, 05:35:48 pm
No big surprises hele: Hillman was right-of-center type Democrat, and Wardlow - probably the most conservative Democrat in Arkansas legislature and among five most conservative Democratic legislators in the nation (in fact - he was more conservative then some Republican legislators in Arkansas). Taking into consideration that Republicans will, most likely, be in full control of the state for at least 20 years - rather natural decision. Some years ago similar situation existed in Mississippi and Louisiana, with literally dozens Democratic state legislators switching. With fewer blacks then in these two states Arkansas Democratic party is still not "a black party", but - becoming so....

Per Wikipedia, Jeff Wardlaw is very young (graduated from college in 2002). Why was someone this conservative of his generation ever in the Democratic Party to begin with?

Until about 2010 Arkansas on legislative level was very Democratic. Including many conservative Democrats (though Wardlaw was one of the most conservative even among them). And his district is Southern Arkansas is, ancestrally, very Democratic. But - strictly in Southern sense of the word. Florida Panhandle was very Democratic and very conservative (on local level - still is in some counties) until relatively recent times too..

I could understand if he were some 70 year old who got started in politics when the coalitions were very different. But for someone born in the 1980s to be a conservative and a Democrat is as illogical as being a liberal and a Republican. It would be like someone in their 30s in Massachusetts running as a Republican while not actually agreeing with the party on anything and voting to the left of many Democrats (though that sounds like something a lot of people on this forum would do).
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Arkansas State House: Another Democrat Switches to GOP on: November 25, 2016, 01:36:11 am
No big surprises hele: Hillman was right-of-center type Democrat, and Wardlow - probably the most conservative Democrat in Arkansas legislature and among five most conservative Democratic legislators in the nation (in fact - he was more conservative then some Republican legislators in Arkansas). Taking into consideration that Republicans will, most likely, be in full control of the state for at least 20 years - rather natural decision. Some years ago similar situation existed in Mississippi and Louisiana, with literally dozens Democratic state legislators switching. With fewer blacks then in these two states Arkansas Democratic party is still not "a black party", but - becoming so....

Per Wikipedia, Jeff Wardlaw is very young (graduated from college in 2002). Why was someone this conservative of his generation ever in the Democratic Party to begin with?
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump advisor threatens House GOP in meeting: Your no longer the party of Reagan on: November 24, 2016, 12:17:52 am
Speaking as someone who left the GOP over their swing to Trumpism and some other issues, I'd like to respond. You can respond or not, it's just up to you.

Quote
1. We get back manufacturing and trade jobs and hopefully that helps to reverse this trend where everyone is forced to attend university. College degree value has declined considerably due to this. We have a record number of Americans out of the labor force participation rate, and merely requiring everyone to further their education at every level will only leave more and more Americans jobless. Simply put, our current service-heavy economy is too non-diverse to be healthy.

This is where I need to raise objections to what you're saying. Manufacturing has been leaving the United States for decades, long before Trump was on the scene. Getting them back would inherently require us to eliminate the minimum wage or agree to higher prices to make things in America.

The thing is, even if we label China as a currency manipulator and get them to shift their currency basket, the problem is that it will bring back a few jobs and not a lot of them. The long and short of it, to become a manufacturing and trading nation again, we'd have to embrace a race to the bottom in terms of wages even more than we already do.

There is virtually no way to raise China's wages or India's wages without raising their living standards. Vietnam, other countries, whatever, they produce things cheaply because their currency is dirt cheap and they're a third world economy.

So, where do we go from there, if this doesn't work out?

Quote
2. One specific hope of mine is education reform. If I was not so scared of teaching public school, then I would be able to pursue my dream of graduate school for History and then earning a PhD after a few years of teaching. Between the horrid federal standards and the chaotic classroom environment enabled by our destructive policies, teaching school sounds like a nightmare. I feel forced into law school because of this and the issues discussed in Answer 1.

I'm not really in disagreement over this. I'm not sure how Trump fixes this though.

Quote
3. Apart from illegal immigration being a national security issue, we need a smaller employee pull to help our job market. Even American STEM workers are feeling the pain of visa and illegal workers. It is baffling how we say that we need illegals to stay to do jobs Americans don't want to do, but then we complain that Americans can't find work and thus welfare needs to be expanded. Moreover, what are we going to do when the children of these illegals refuse to do the jobs their parents did? Let even more people defy the law and sneak in for cheap labor? Letting illegals remain is a slap in the face to natural-born Americans and legal immigrants.

I'm not opposed to cracking down on illegal immigration. And most of what you say is correct, and all that.

The only part I really disagree is STEM / HB1 visas. I think that if we attract the smartest talent around the world, we better our economic edge and we attract a brain drain from other countries.

Where I most fervently disagree with what the Republican Party has become is that I think that looking inwards, economically, and potentially cutting off trade deals and focusing on economically inefficient solutions like infrastructure spending, tax giveaways to the rich, and not helping the middle class.

Ideally, I'd like a universal college program, frankly. I think that if we did that, it would become one of the drivers of economic growth. I also have abandoned GOP orthodoxy on tax cuts for the wealthy. The return on our money for cutting taxes for the rich is pretty low GDP and economy wise.

In a perfect world we'd all have a flat tax and go home. But in this world, income inequality is a big driver of stagnant growth. So that's another thing we need to tackle.


There's a difference between using an H1B visa to allow a PhD holder in a rare field to come here to collaborate with other PhDs for research, and using H1Bs for very low-level IT and office work positions, which is what the bulk of them are currently used for (by companies like Infosys and Tata Consultancy). It's not hard to find Americans who are capable of managing a database server or a customer service call center. H1B unnecessarily depress wages in those fields.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The United States of Gerontocracy on: November 23, 2016, 10:46:51 pm
Compare that to the Politburo in 1985.

Does that mean Trump is Andropov?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Almost impossible to knock off a first term incumbent on: November 23, 2016, 10:44:16 pm
*Donald Trump squeezes together a winning electoral coalition comprised of 46% of the vote, which won four crucial states by under a point and a half each.*

"Trump is invincible!"

We'll see, but I tend to think that Trump's popularity in MI and PA will fade if he doesn't successfully accomplish his (basically impossible) promise to turn back the clock on employment prospects in unskilled positions there. Four years from now the Dems need to point out that he's just another politician making wild promises he doesn't keep.

Yeah, they threw a fit because Obama didn't buy them all a pony after eight years. They were desperate enough to turn to Trump - they're not going to show him any patience four years from now when he hasn't "brought the jobs back."
21  General Politics / Political Debate / Why can't the US provide health coverage to all its citizens? on: November 23, 2016, 08:10:30 pm
All other countries with comparable per capita GDP do so.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CAIR exit poll: Trump got 13% of Muslim vote, doubling Romney on: November 23, 2016, 05:06:00 pm
Still proud to be in the 74% who voted for Hillary Clinton. The 13% are probably the ultra-conservative Muslims who looked past Trump denigrating Muslims and hoped he'd repeal abortion rights and gay marriage or some other social conservative wedge issue.

Do conservative Muslims really care that much about abortion?
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: For some reason,. over 3k new votes reported in MI, trump's margin falls to 9.5k on: November 23, 2016, 02:55:38 am
Hopefully a few thousand more votes for Hillary will turn up, conveniently cast in alphabetical order by last name.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CAIR exit poll: Trump got 13% of Muslim vote, doubling Romney on: November 23, 2016, 02:54:09 am
Well obviously they'd be less enthusiastic for Hillary than they were to vote for the first Muslim president of the United States in 2008 and 2012.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Activists Urge Clinton Campaign to Challenge Election Results on: November 23, 2016, 02:53:09 am
Generally speaking, it's in kind of bad form to concede an election and then turn around and contest the results. (I didn't think it was right for Gore to do so either.)

What's sad and infuriating is that a trip or two to Wisconsin would have probably been enough to tip it the other way.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 292


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines