Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 30, 2016, 07:32:41 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 270
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin on: May 29, 2016, 02:25:16 pm
It makes no sense at all.

MN/IA/WI aren't states with industrial bases in secular decline like OH/MI/PA.

They have a much bigger agricultural presence.

Their residents tend to be better-educated and have lower rates of poverty.

They are much more racially homogeneous than OH/MI/PA with a disproportionate number of white people of German/Norwegian/Dutch ancestry.

Basically, they're some of the least hospitable states to Donald Trump.
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Hamas on: May 29, 2016, 01:50:50 am
Well, Israel did support Hamas as recently as the early 1990s because they believed, for some reason, that an Islamic fundamentalist group would somehow be less hostile to Israel than a Soviet-allied revolutionary guerilla group would be.
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Fatah on: May 29, 2016, 01:47:48 am
So, basically, something similar to what like Bosnia has?
Yes, but with an important exception: Bosnia's consociationalism is territorially based. If you live in the Serbian part, I don't think you can just pack up and move to the Bosniak part, although I'm no expert on this. Instead, both national communities should rule themselves on a non-territorial basis. If the West is to become officially or unofficially Jewish and the East is to become officially or unofficially Palestinian, you create the impression that these communities are trying to "steal" this land and make it theirs, which will cause problems. Instead, everyone should have the right to set up communities anywhere in the land, with the normal exceptions related to the preservation of nature, the environment etc.

This is a terrible idea because of the precedent it would set. You can't decouple citizenship and government from a physical jurisdiction. The end result would be a bunch of new "virtual governments" created for rich people to avoid paying taxes in whatever country they happen to physically be in.
4  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Why doesn't the GOP ditch the religious right and culture warriors? on: May 28, 2016, 06:30:42 pm
Hard as it must be for the blue avatars who live in wealthy, well-educated white/Asian bubbles to understand, the GOP would do worse in elections if it ignored the culture wars. The GOP would not have taken Congress in 1994 or in 2010 were it not for the culture wars and social issues, and likely would not have won the 2000 or 2004 presidential elections without them.

(1) Most Americans are too poor to have a reason to vote for the GOP on fiscal/economic issues alone.



The GOP has nothing to offer households that don't clear at least $100,000 a year. Their tax plans provide no tangible benefits to middle-income households. Their offers to cut or eliminate capital gains and dividend taxes do nothing for the 99% of Americans who don't get any income from dividends or capital gains. Most Americans will never be able to retire or live a non-impoverished life in old age without "Big Government" stepping in with Social Security and Medicare.

The GOP loses 80% or more of the country on tax policy alone.

Even if you restrict yourself to the share of Americans who vote, only 28% of 2012 voters were from households making more than $100,000 a year.

(2) The GOP needs the "poorly educated" more than they think.

Less than one third of American adults have at least a bachelor's degree.

In 2012, 53% of voting Americans had never even attended college.

(3) 42% of Americans are Creationists. While that isn't a majority, the GOP would have to compete with the Democrats for the other 58% of Americans, and that would likely require taking a more nuanced approach to issues like global warming.

Throw these people overboard and they will stay home.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OH-Gov: DeWine In on: May 28, 2016, 05:54:03 pm
This is probably a very Atlasian thing to say, but I think DeWine running for Attorney General was one of the smarter things a politician has done. After losing higher office, they have a big enough name to run for a lower position. More young politicians could learn from that.

It requires a certain degree of humility that most pols lack.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Which republican candidates will over or underperform Trump? on: May 28, 2016, 05:51:44 pm
Why is everyone so bearish on Rand? Isn't he super popular in his home state?

I think the point is that Trump would do so well in KY that he'd have more people voting for him and voting Democratic down ticket (especially in eastern KY) than #NeverTrump Republicans voting for Hillary/Lib and down ballot GOP.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Rubio being asked to jump back in; filing deadline is June 24th on: May 28, 2016, 05:49:27 pm
Bad idea. If he does this and loses in November, his political career really is over for good.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why does the Libertarian party fixate on Presidential politics? on: May 28, 2016, 05:46:10 pm
In local/state races, it would make more sense for them to offer tacit alliances to one of the major parties.

Say, in an race that has the potential to be very close, the Libertarians pick one or two issues and see which major candidate will agree to pursue them. In return, the Libertarians would withdraw their candidate from the race and encourage Libertarians to support that major candidate.

It's an imperfect substitute for the fusion tickets that are possible in New York or the joint lists that some parliamentary systems allow.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: GOP Sets Out to Prevent Another Donald Trump in 2020 on: May 25, 2016, 10:26:58 pm
Closed primaries and nominating Cruz (or a Cruz-type) candidate doesn't solve the problem of Cruz being just as unpromising of a general election candidate as Trump is.

Maybe the GOP should focus on the root cause of their problem - that the only people who vote in their primaries (and identify as members of their party) are old white people.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Governor McAuliffe under investigation on: May 24, 2016, 12:27:56 am
Maybe the 2013 VA governors' race was meant to be a preview of the 2016 election: a horrible, corrupt Democrat gets elected because the Republicans managed to nominate someone even worse despite multiple opportunities not to.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sabato TRUMP VP Shortlist on: May 21, 2016, 01:19:41 am
As I said in the stickied thread, Trump would be smart to consider Kay Bailey Hutchison to add conservative and establishment cred to the ticket while softening many of his rough edges.  I'm not sure she would accept, but she seems to be the best potential choice left out of the ones who haven't ruled themselves out yet.

Anyway, this list mostly sucks.  I have no idea why they'd put Shelley Moore Capito so high on the list when she's pro-choice.  That's an immediate disqualifier.
Wait, isn't her record from the National Right to Life Committee very high? I know she has voted in favor of stem cell research (as a pro-lifer myself, I see no real arguments against it, I think it does too much good to be evil, but back to the topic), and has a 55% rating during the Bush years while in the House, but I think her rating has gone up since.

The Republican Party has moved the goalposts so far on the abortion issue that simply supporting access to birth control has become equated with being a baby killer. Shelley Moore Capito is a baby killer in their eyes.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News latino poll: Clinton 62, Trump 23 among Hispanics on: May 21, 2016, 12:02:23 am
Isn't it sad how in American politics, we can determine elections based on numbers from specific racial groups?

I can't think of another country in the world besides s.africa where our political parties are basically homes for specific demographic groups.

As a foreigner that's one of the very strangest things about American politics.

Although Tories did especially well with minorities last year, in the years preceding the pattern could be seen as analogous to the GOP in some ways, with blacks giving low support and other ethnic groups voting generally variously anywhere from 1/3-2/3 of the white rate for the conservative party.


Is there a reason other than religion for the significant Conservative lean of Indians relative to Pakistanis?
13  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: House Republicans switch votes at last minute to kill anti-discrimination amend. on: May 20, 2016, 11:45:42 pm
Of course, those 7 Republicans were just the group that SWITCHED votes. There's an even longer list to be made of all the Republicans who voted against this bill from the beginning.

The only Republicans who supported the bill:

Justin Amash, Mike Coffman, Ryan Costello, Carlos Curbelo, Charlie Dent (Co-Sponsor), Mario Diaz-Balart, Robert Dold, Dan Donovan, Tom Emmer (WTF?), Mike Fitzpatrick, Rodney Frelinghuysen, Chris Gibson, Richard Hanna, Joe Heck, Will Hurd, David Jolly, John Katko, Leonard Lance, Frank LoBiondo, Tom MacArthur, Martha McSally, Pat Meehan, Erik Paulsen, Dave Reichert, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Tom Reed, Elise Stefanik, Fred Upton, Lee Zeldin

Matt Salmon, Sam Johnson, and Jaime Herrera Beutler (Who gave birth today) were absent.

Notable names I see missing from that list: Barbara Comstock, Rod Blum, Cresent Hardy, Steve Knight, Scott Garrett, Tim Walberg, Frank Guinta, and Mike Bishop.

A lot of the Republicans PA, NY, and NJ are in the pro-GLBT group.  Charlie Dent is my former congressman, he's from Lehigh Valley, and one of the few Republicans that is a FF.  It's nice to see some young Republicans -- Justin Amash, Ryan Costello, and Elise Stefanik -- on that list.  All of the Republicans on this list come from states that the President won in 2008 and 2012 except one person - TX's Will Hurd.

Hurd's vote makes sense since he's in a swing district where Hispanic turnout tends to spike in presidential years. (West Texas Hispanics aren't particularly socially conservative like Rio Grande Valley Hispanics are.) And at this point pretty much everyone under age 35 in this country thinks it's absurd not to treat gay people equally, including the Republican ones.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sabato TRUMP VP Shortlist on: May 20, 2016, 11:02:15 pm
Shelley Moore Capito strikes me as the only potential woman addition to the ticket that would not be a complete disaster. A very prolific legislator, very popular in her state, not a rabble rouser, fairly moderate for a Republican in 2016. If she hadn't just got elected to the Senate, she strikes me as the perfect pick for the reason that she does no damage and adds #TheWomanCard.

The more I think about it the more it makes sense as a response to the accusation that Trump is anti-woman and not into policy and needs someone who contrasts that. And unlike someone like Susan Collins, you can sell Capito to the base.

No.
Quote
As of 2012, [Capito] had a lifetime rating of 70 from the American Conservative Union. She is a member of the Republican Main Street Partnership.

AW HELL NO.
Quote
Senator Capito supports reproductive rights, including the right to a safe and legal abortion.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sabato TRUMP VP Shortlist on: May 19, 2016, 12:33:51 am
As I said in the stickied thread, Trump would be smart to consider Kay Bailey Hutchison to add conservative and establishment cred to the ticket while softening many of his rough edges.  I'm not sure she would accept, but she seems to be the best potential choice left out of the ones who haven't ruled themselves out yet.

Anyway, this list mostly sucks.  I have no idea why they'd put Shelley Moore Capito so high on the list when she's pro-choice.  That's an immediate disqualifier.

There is no way in hell KBH would sign up for that. She was more than slightly pissed off that McCain passed her over in '08 and picked Sarah Palin of all people. She's not going to play second fiddle to what Sarah Palin would be if she were a rich, angry anthropomorphic circus peanut.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Dying Bob Bennett apologizes to Muslims for Donald Trump on: May 18, 2016, 11:31:38 pm
If the Democrats play their cards right this year, they could undo the monopoly the GOP has had on the Mormon vote since the 1980s.

It should be pretty obvious from their history that Mormons aren't big fans of discriminating against religious minorities. And since they live in an incredibly homogeneous region where pretty much everyone is white and Mormon, the two things that animate the GOP these days - resentment-fueled white identity politics and the Victimhood/Martyrdom Complex that Evangelical Christians have from occasionally having to encounter people who disagree with them - are absent.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Dying Bob Bennett apologizes to Muslims for Donald Trump on: May 18, 2016, 09:02:17 pm
This is sad and you have to wonder if Trump winning the nomination was the literal "nail in the coffin" for RFB. He's had to watch the slow-motion collapse of his party for the past six years, after a lifetime in Republican politics. How must it feel to watch everything you worked so hard for go up in smoke so quickly?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Jolly won't vote for TRUMP, CLC a reluctant supporter on: May 18, 2016, 08:59:10 pm
What are the Republicans going to attack him for? Murphy was a Republican up until mid-2012 and supported Mitt Romney in the GOP primary that year.

He's basically what a sane Republican congressman would look like if such a thing existed at this point.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IL-Sen: Kirk Pushes Bizarre Conspiracy Theory About Obama Justice Department on: May 18, 2016, 08:56:24 pm
Doesn't change the fact that basically any republican is better than a corrupt chicago democrat under indictment.

Dude, Tammy Duckworth is a decorated war veteran who lost both her legs in Iraq. Are you seriously going to go there?
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sacrificial lambs that ended up winning the election on: May 18, 2016, 08:36:28 pm
Blake Farenthold (R-TX). He was basically a trust fund baby who self-funded his 2010 campaign because the state/national party didn't seriously contest the district.

And since he won in a redistricting year, the state legislature promptly reconfigured his district into a safe R seat and he's not going anywhere unless he gets primaried for some reason.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Note to fanatic Hillary supporters..........she is no longer "inevitable". on: May 18, 2016, 02:24:38 pm
Nobody has ever claimed she is inevitable. She is simply the only thing that stands between us and the horror that would be Trump presidency.

At this point, if you have a drop of decency in you, you simply have to support her. Some things are just too important. Vote for Hillary Clinton on November 8. The stakes are too high to stay home.



Happy you recognize the reference. It was intended.

If Trump wins, Hillary Clinton is to blame for losing the election. She is not entitled to anyone's vote. She has to earn votes. And she hasn't earned mine. If she wanted to be president so badly, she should have reconsidered her conduct in this election and over the past 20+ years in public life.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Exit polls state-by-state for 2000 & 2002? on: May 17, 2016, 11:51:09 pm
Are you a student? If so, you might check your university's library. Sometimes they have access to old polls or can get them for you from another institution.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Gary Johnson and Jill Stein be invited to the debates? on: May 16, 2016, 10:58:36 pm
You should be invited if you are polling at least 10% in an average of 5 recent polls.

Polling firms should be required to include all candidates who are on the ballot in all 50 states.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would an ISIL-related terrorist attack affect the race? on: May 16, 2016, 07:06:14 pm
"The Reichstag is burning!"
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would the GOP deal with a TRUMP loss? on: May 15, 2016, 10:20:09 pm
How many presidential elections will the GOP have to lose before they accept that they have a problem?
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 270


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines