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1  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: 538 Update Thread on: November 05, 2012, 10:24:06 pm

Crazy turnout meaning very heavily a Democratic electorate. Turnout was 55/45 D/R among those who display a partisan preference in 2008,  50/50 D/R in 2004, 53/47 D/R in 2000, and 53/47 D/R in 1996. Any partisan turnout model based primarily on 2008 (and note I'm not claiming this is actually the case) will over-estimate D turnout. It's pretty likely that we get turnout much closer to '96 and '00.
2  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: 538 Update Thread on: November 05, 2012, 02:42:14 am
At this point, I'd put a lot less stock in Nate's numbers than I would've several months ago. His model is likely to be "right" if the turnout numbers are where the aggregate of all the polls place them. His model's problem is it doesn't know anything about the early voting data that's coming in. Meaning that if the early voting partisan turnout numbers (and the resultant overall partisan turnout numbers) are different than what the aggregate of the polls predicted, his model will be "wrong". I'm not at all sure whether that will be the case, but that's an extremely important factor that he's counting on polling companies to be correct about. Now polling companies could be adjusting their turnout projections based off early voting numbers, but they also might not be, especially the less savvy ones.

All in all, I'm much more worried that the pollsters are overestimating Obama's turnout than Romney's, if only because their main data point will be the crazy turnout in 2008.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why the top 1% should worry on: April 04, 2011, 08:05:36 pm
The top 1 percent may have the best houses, educations, and lifestyles, says the author, but “their fate is bound up with how the other 99 percent live.”

I'm not sure this premise is true, at least as "other 99 percent" refers to the bottom bunch of Americans.

A hypothetical world where, in 25 years, conditions for the bottom 99% have deteriorated, even significantly, but the remainder of the world rises in prosperity would be a perfectly acceptable place for the top 1% to live. Viewing this from a perspective only focused on the United States ignores that the rich are increasingly a transnational class. They're not wedded to the United States to market products, create products, and find innovations and employees. There is no genuine reason why they, as a block, cannot make their lives elsewhere.
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you support Operation Odyssey Dawn? on: March 22, 2011, 02:13:59 pm
If all we're going to do is enforce a No-Fly Zone to prevent him from killing more civilians/revolutionaries, I support it. I think it's far more likely that this ends in us assisting in a regime change and helping install a government and economic regime favorable to Western interests that may or may not be what the Libyan people would like to create for themselves.

In other words, I think the international community has the responsibility to protect human rights, but has no right to dictate the political and economic rules a people adopts for itself. The United States and its allies have a very poor record in following the latter.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Poll: Is the Texas low-tax & low-service model the future of America? on: March 15, 2011, 10:38:05 pm
It's pretty clear this is where things are going, at least at the state level. The furor that would result from gutting Medicare, Social Security, etc. at the federal level is probably too much even for this Congress to survive. This is not an American solution to the recession though; European governments have been pushing austerity for over a year. Wisconsin, etc. is just the beginning of it here in the United States. For the last thirty years, the right has successfully convinced enough people who pay attention to politics that trickle-down is a valid idea. The low tax/low service model is the natural result of that. Until the people who are hurt by this begin to exercise political power, these policies are going to be pushed.

I'd also note that your characterization of these policies as helping Texas 'weather' the financial crisis is probably overblown. Certainly their business friendly environment has helped their economy 'weather' the crisis better than most, but I doubt the average person in Texas has 'weathered' the last 2+ years very well at all.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should John Muhammad be executed? on: November 09, 2009, 04:16:00 pm
Yes, it eliminates the lower form of human being

The idea that most people who commit crimes do so because of moral defects is pretty offensive.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: So on: October 27, 2009, 12:47:10 am
7.7%. That sounds fairly accurate. I probably used it four hours a day at time the first two years.
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: OCTOBER GENERAL ELECTION - OFFICIAL THREAD on: October 23, 2009, 12:46:55 am

[2] Fyodor Glazunov [Realpolitik]/Urban Chronitis [Lewis Trondheim]
Leipist National Front

[1] Lief/Bacon King
Jesus Christ Party
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: So what are your plans this weekend and what are you drinking? on: October 22, 2009, 01:35:14 pm
Drinking, gambling, and watching football/golf. Cheap beer, cheap vodka, and cheap rum will be consumed.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you like your parents? on: October 20, 2009, 12:48:04 am
Like? yes. Love? i guess. Enjoy spending time with? not really. we have very, very little in common.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: New Register Thread on: October 14, 2009, 01:10:03 pm
Jesus Christ Party

Because some people don't know when to stop
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If you had kids...Would you allow your child to receive a swine flu vaccine? on: October 12, 2009, 02:58:01 am
YOU turned out fine, but you are only one person.

Is there a hidden epidemic of childhood flu deaths that the media has forgotten to hype up?
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I'm becoming an asshole on: October 12, 2009, 02:56:23 am
Maybe stop being wound so fucking tight.

I find relaxing, drinking, napping, and cough syrup help keep my mood in neutral, except on weekends when I'm guaranteed to be pissed if I'm losing.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Football League 2009 on: October 11, 2009, 11:19:38 am
At least I'm starting Ted Ginn today.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: A gift for you yunggins....... on: October 09, 2009, 01:06:08 am
First impressions are everything in every part of life.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The drunk among sobers vs. the sober among drunk on: October 04, 2009, 07:09:49 pm
Drunk among sober. It's very similar to the normal situation of me just being a lot drunker than most of my friends and I don't have much shame.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which tabs are currently open on your internet browser? on: October 04, 2009, 04:17:32 pm
Atlas, ESPN Fantasy Football, Google Maps, Facebook, and a college football website
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Has anyone here on: October 04, 2009, 12:30:46 am
I don't study. I'm not sure how I feel about that.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever met a sex tourist besides opebo? on: October 01, 2009, 01:14:43 am
I met several people who strongly intimated they were in Thailand largely for sex.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Transformation of Opebo on: October 01, 2009, 01:13:48 am
He's answered this question before.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: For each of the 50 states, which would be your preferred place to live? on: September 28, 2009, 12:33:54 am
California - Berkeley
Colorado - Denver
D.C. - Chinatown or Shaw/Howard
Florida - St. Pete or Miami
Georgia - Atlanta
Illinois - Chicago
Maryland - College Park
Massachusetts - Boston
Michigan - Ann Arbor
Nevada - Vegas
New Jersey - Numerous nice places within a train ride of NYC
New York - Brooklyn and Ithaca upstate
Ohio - Athens
Oregon - Portland
Pennsylvania - Center City
Texas - Houston possibly
Vermont - Burlington
Virginia - Alexandria
Washington - Seattle
West Virginia - Morgantown
Wisconsin - Madison
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Football League 2009 on: September 28, 2009, 12:16:03 am
I'll trade you Folk if you're interested.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Why do you support Israel's right to exist? on: September 28, 2009, 12:05:15 am
Because just because their country was founded in a not-particularly-moral way 60 years ago doesn't mean it's less legitimate than a country founded in a not-particularly-moral way 200 years ago. I support their right to exist as a country, much as I support the right of Bolivia or Ghana to exist.

I don't support fawning over them like many people do.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Atlas Football League 2009 on: September 27, 2009, 09:02:38 pm
In case anyone was wondering, yes, I was trying to lose by starting Quinn over Schaub.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you earned over $100k in your lifetime? on: September 23, 2009, 11:28:11 pm
I've made about 10K.
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