One of your best timelines so far (but all are great )

Looking forward to the next update!

Reagan.

[Florian Pronold]

     The Socialist People's Party would be a coalition of left-leaning Greens and some of the people in die Linke who aren't past-GDR mofos.  Maybe some of the remaining SPD left as well.  Lead by Jürgen Trittin, most likely.  Maybe Florian Pronold, if they're going for a younger angle.  

Pronold is certainly not a leftwinger - he's very much in the current SPD's mainstream.

Otherwise I agree, but the Christian Democrats sound more like the ÖDP  than the CSU.

And two new Federal polls:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 26.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 28%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 6%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: -
AfD: 3%

CDU/CSU without majority (40-48). Red-Green without majority (42-46).

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/politbarometer.htm

Infratest Dimap, 26.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: -
AfD: 3%

CDU/CSU without majority (40-48). Red-Green without majority (41-47).

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap.htm

AfD is rather a threat for another black-yellow majority in September. They might be able to gain enough former FDP-votes to keep the party below five percent. A significant part of FDP-supporters is dissatisfied with Merkel's management of the Euro-crisis.

But even if FDP reached 5%, AfD would still be a threat to it if they also obtained 5%, no?

If the AfD enters the Bundestag a new grand coalition would be almost guaranteed.

Schade Steinbrück alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei.

Well both polls were taken before the convention on sunday so there MIGHT be a bump. But for him to resign now would be even worse now probably.

WWIII consists of the US and it's allies against an unlikely alliance of communist nations (New USSR, France, China, Cuba, etc) and radical Islamist nations.

Thanks for liking the timeline!

This sounds unlikely...otherwise keep it up!

Or CDU-FDP pulls it out again ... (unlikely, but who knows).

I think it's possible, especially if the lack of enthusiasm with socialdemoratic voters continues.

Anyway I'll be voting with both votes SPD - as a "loyal" party member I should even if I don't agree with our choice of candidate for chancellor. At least our local candidates are good.

Labor. I like Julia Gillard and I think she should continue being PM.

Jeanne Shaheen, but I would also consider Bill Richardson. Though the last choice might be too much Washington...

FF. When I went to Ecuador 5 years ago I also learned a lot about the political situation there and I think, that he is the right president for Ecuador.

I like both timelines!

Interesting start, but I find an all-male cabinet very unlikely...

A new poll from GMS for Lower Saxony:

CDU: 41%
SPD: 33%
Greens: 13%
FDP: 5%
Left: 3%
Pirates: 3%
Others:2%

CDU-FDP 46% vs SPD-Greens 46%!

It stays exciting!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20494085

"South Africa's Jacob Zuma: Cows slaughtered for re-election

South Africa's President Jacob Zuma has appealed to his ancestors to help him hold on to the leadership of the ruling African National Congress (ANC).

Mr Zuma attended a ceremony at his village on Sunday, where 12 cattle were slaughtered and incense burnt as people prayed for his re-election.

His opponents are pushing for him to be ousted as ANC leader at the party's conference next month.

Mr Zuma, a polygamist with 21 children, is a well-known Zulu traditionalist.

He beat his predecessor Thabo Mbeki in a bitterly contested election in 2007 for the leadership of the ANC."

This might help in his reelection...

It will hurt both parties probably in the short run. But I think after the next federal election the leaders of both parties will have to look at a strategic perspective of working together.

Livni has officially announced her new party, and she has given it the most bland generic name possible: "The Movement". No official word yet on whom else will be part of this party.

I assume this will cause more even more of a fragmentation of the Left-wing?

New Yougov/INSA poll

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 29%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 4%
Left: 7%
Pirates: 4%
Others: 4%

Someone please list the reasons why Cuomo is so terrible. I'm not doubting it. Just curious.

I'm interested as well...

Well I've spent the whole day at the SPD's party convention in Lower Saxony. Everyone is extremely confident of the SPD winning the election so we will have to see wether that's correct.

Nevertheless none of the shadow cabinet members said anything revolutionary so the mood seems to not cause any damage before the election.

Furthermore the mood before and during Steinbrück's speech wasn't great so the party certainly has some problems with him.

Great timeline! I would love a President Cantwell, but that's probably not going to happen :-P

Wouldn't Paul Ryan have a serious shot at the nomination? And furthermore he seems a bit as the heir apparent with him running for VP this season...

I believe that Democrats will have at least one woman on the ticket for sure. With the Republicans I'm not certain...

Hillary Clinton.

Honestly I was very glad when CNN finally called it. I was extremely tired and was expecting Obama to win the whole night. And when it was called I had a reason to throw my guests out at 5:30 am :-P