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July 27, 2016, 09:54:02 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton/Kaine First Joint Appearance Megathread on: July 23, 2016, 12:41:36 pm
I really have to say I'm very positively suprised.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Is Larry Craig Gay? on: June 15, 2016, 08:13:47 am
He could be bisexual, so this question is not as straightforward as you might think.

Yes bisexuals do exist.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does the recent gun massacre of 50+ LGBT people in Orlando, Florida... on: June 13, 2016, 09:30:04 am
I think this could have helped him slightly, but because of the way he responded to the events, in the typical insensible and disrespectful narcissistic Trump fashion, it'll probably end up working against him. Some Bernie diehards in my Facebook are now willing to vote for HRC to stop him because of today.


The trouble is, for every Bernie supporter this brings over to Clinton, there's a conservative who hated Trump but now agrees with his blister on terrorism and has decided to support him in the fall.

I mean, look at what Green Line was posting today and tell me that the political conversation around the events of last night would not at least help polarize the country and push people like him back into Trump's orbit. You can't, really.

So who wins?

The end result is likely that this will have little to no impact beyond potential short-term Trump boost by a point or so. May be a some undecideds that answer Trump out of emotional reaction, but settle back to undecided after a few days or weeks of Trump continuing to be himself.

This. And one should never underestimate Trump's ability to do damage to himself.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: June 06, 2016, 08:08:29 am
German president Joachim Gauck has decided not to run for a second term.

http://www.politico.eu/article/joachim-gauck-wont-run-for-second-term-as-german-president/
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The New 1896: Snapshot of the Next 30 years on: June 01, 2016, 07:07:02 am
This is a really good timeline - I'm enjoying reading this! Smiley
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH - Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald - Trump, Clinton Tied at 44% on: May 31, 2016, 03:45:25 am
The gender gap in this poll is 42 points, with women preferring Clinton over Trump by 22 points (54%-32%), while men strongly favor Trump (55%-35%). If only men weren't allowed to vote Sad

There was a similar gender spread in the recent Austrian elections. Men voting for far-right candidates seems to be a problem in a lot of countries.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: May 22, Finally TRUMP is ahead vs Hillary by RCP Average(first time) on: May 30, 2016, 05:39:36 pm
Anyway she is in the lead again so debate over this at this stage is naturally inconsequential.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win in June? (D) on: May 25, 2016, 06:27:19 pm
This poll might be one of the first (almost) consensus polls in the 2016 forum.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Devastating Documentary coming soon. on: May 12, 2016, 02:37:39 pm
If earning more money is most important for the Clintons, HRC wouldn't be running for president.

There much better ways of earning money than being a politician.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: High-energy interview on TYT on: April 27, 2016, 04:14:11 am
Wow, he single handedly took all the Turks to the woodshed. Massive FF!

It's really satisfying to watch! Cheesy
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Confession on: April 23, 2016, 03:44:06 pm
It's back! I just saw it now but I'm really glad! Keep it up Smiley
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: April 23, 2016, 09:54:52 am
Nobody posted it here yet: the SPD-centrist mayor of Berlin Michael Müller made a successful coup against leftwing SPD chairman Jan Stöß and got rid of some allies of his:

http://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/berliner-spd-michael-mueller-schlaegt-andreas-geisel-als-vize-vor/13466742.html

This also hurts the SPD-left overall as Stöß was one of the more powerful and outspoken members.

13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: April 23, 2016, 09:52:38 am
Wow, surprised the traffic light coalition actually went through.
Actually, Kurt Beck opted for FDP than Greens as coalition partner. Then RP FDP knows how to work with SDP.

Yes. There was an SPD-FDP coalition in RLP from 1991 to 2006 and Kurt Beck kept good relations with them afterwards. Apparently Dreyer was able to build on that, but she seems to be a natural bridge builder in my opinion.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton begins VP search (NYT) on: April 23, 2016, 09:14:10 am
Rooting for Deval Patrick. He's unquestionably qualified, would make an excellent attack dog, and it completely rewards African Americans, who are probably the main reason Hillary was able to put the nomination away.

Will never be him...

1. He doesn't want it
2. Clinton won't pick him because this actually would cause more Berners to say #BernieorBust (he's at Bain Capital!)

Booker could also have a similar problem when it comes to the Berners. He defended Bain Capital in 2012 after all...

Warner's time has gone, surely?

I would agree.

Furthermore I also think Castro is unlikely because it would start a debate about his experience at a time that the Clinton campaign propably wouldn't need it.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who Hates Hillary More? on: April 21, 2016, 10:16:02 am
TYT by far.

They really invoke the worst stereotypes people have of progressives.

TYT isn't progressive anymore.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: To tell the truth I like Ted Kruz on: April 21, 2016, 09:41:06 am
The only advantage I see going for Cruz against Trump is that he isn't (or least doesn't seem to be) so crazy.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Campaign Trail: Post Your Maps! on: April 05, 2016, 06:08:29 am
https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/game/156198

Kennedy: 356 Electoral Votes 50.7%
Nixon: 167 Electoral Votes 48.8%



Better than 99.8% Wink
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Just how relieved are you right now? on: February 07, 2016, 07:49:46 am
I think that Rubio still has a chance. I just don't see Trump performing well on Tuesday and Cruz is just to unpopular with establishment Republicans. Rubio has several problem, but he is still the most likely nominee in my opinion.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Spanish elections and politics on: December 20, 2015, 07:57:10 am
Is there any place to see the results?
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's December. Do you surrender to Donald Trump? on: December 03, 2015, 09:52:15 am
I'm still gonna wait until April before I make up my mind.

Me too. I just cannot imagine Trump being the nominee.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ben Carson admits fabricating West Point scholarship on: November 06, 2015, 01:35:36 pm
I think the next question is: is Ben Carson really a neurosurgeon? Cheesy
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Election 2000 and Beyond: Clinton impeached, resigns on: November 02, 2015, 06:10:11 am
I really like this timeline!
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Danish PM: Sanders should stop calling Denmark socialist on: November 01, 2015, 09:58:36 am
I completly agree. Sanders is no socialist and he should stop saying it.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: '12 on: October 23, 2015, 08:01:42 am
When will we see an update? Smiley
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / And so it continues... 2005 German election and on on: October 23, 2015, 05:54:01 am
6 pm, September 18th 2005

"Good evening, here ist the first projection for the federal election 2005"



"CDU/CSU are at 34,1%, down 4,4%, SPD at 35%, down 3,5%. The Greens are at 7,8%, down 0,8%, FDP is at 10,2%, up 2,6%, PDS is at 9%, up 5% from 2002. Other parties are at 3,9%. If the results hold up it would be the second worst result for the Christian Democrats, it is also a bad result for the SPD but they seem to stay the largest party in the Bundestag. The clear winners of tonight are FDP and PDS, but neither CDU/CSU-FDP or SPD-Greens seem to have a majority in the Bundestag."



"My party has a clear mandate to form the next government. We have achieved a great victory despite the campaign by the media against me and my party."

- Chancellor Gerhard Schröder in post-election debate

Final results of the 2005 German Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 34,2%, 218 Seats in the Bundestag (-4,3%)

SPD: 35,2%, 225 Seats in the Bundestag (- 3,3%)

Greens: 8,2% 52 Seats in the Bundestag (- 0,4%)

FDP: 10,1% 64 Seats in the Bundestag (+ 2,5%)

PDS: 8,7 % 57 Seats in the Bundestag (+ 5,7%)

Other Parties: 3,6%
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