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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 18, 2016, 03:00:32 pm
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Marzahn-Hellersdorf 5, and to a lesser extent n°4, really stick out in the East. What is this neighborhood like ? Is it a new thing, or was it already a bourgeois cluster in the East before 1990 ?
It's mainly suburban. One-family-houses and two-family-houses, old and new. Such areas are normally the strongest for the CDU in German cities. (higher income, older population, more Christianity, less diversity, and so on).

Most of the development in Kaulsdorf seems to have been from about 1909 to 1940 with some extensions in the eighties and the 2000s. In Mahlsdorf it's from 1902 to 1940 with some 1990s. So it is basically "old suburbia" with some "new suburbia". And so its no "new thing"
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 18, 2016, 02:56:18 pm
Low energy CDU 0,2 per cent in front of the Greens in East Berlin overall. Tough fight for fourth place. ;-)
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 18, 2016, 02:37:34 pm
Mitte 6 (Gesundbrunnen) - SPD hold - by a hair against Greens
Spandau 4 (Staaken - Falkenhagener Feld Süd) - CDU hold - by a hair against SPD
Tempelhof-Schöneberg 1 (Schöneberg-Nord) - Greens hold
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 18, 2016, 02:22:00 pm
And the first district is fully counted. AFD gain Lichtenberg 1 (Hohenschönhausen-Nord, Wartenberg, Falkenberg) from LINKE. Expect some of those to follow, although the main loser, percentage wise seems to be the SPD here.

It also seems the Linke has lost votes in their Plattenbau strongholds and won big in the inner city west. AFD is acellerating the transformation of the Linke to a normal left wing party, a bit.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 04, 2016, 01:54:44 pm
Okay, with the last swath of votes it would now be almost 8 percent. It seems more and more likely the Greens are out.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 04, 2016, 01:47:13 pm
The Greens would need around 7 per cent of the votes (around one inf five) not counted. Not totally impossible as postal ballots are often counted last and the cities are undercounted until now, but it does not seem to likely and the rural areas undercounted by now seem to be a mixed bag.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 04, 2016, 01:07:15 pm
If anybody ist interested in results as counted

http://service.mvnet.de/wahlen/2016_land/dateien/atlanten/ergebnisse.2016/landtagswahl.html
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 04, 2016, 10:55:04 am
Some traits (exit poll by ARD): 56 per cent view the economic situation in MVP as "good", 73 per cent approve of the work of prime minister Erwin Sellering. Around three of four say, this election won't affect their personal life.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Danes don't like Trump much on: August 31, 2016, 07:46:32 am
Danes would vote like all other Western Europeans would. Interesting conclusion here...
What is wrong with American Whites! Huh
Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses...
10  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: EURO 2016 Thread on: July 02, 2016, 12:56:18 am
I'm rooting for a final Wales - Iceland now, because why not? And someone has to kick these strange and unedifying Portugese out.
11  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: EURO 2016 Thread on: June 29, 2016, 01:57:46 am
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Germany is gonna sleepwalk to this title
Sleepwalk? Against Italy? You must be kidding. The chances aren't bad they will end their losing streak against Italy in big tournaments, but it will be hard and interesting game, anyway.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: June 28, 2016, 11:59:36 am
They should not hold Party leader elections by popular vote, if they dump the winning candidate at the first possible moment under fabricated accusations.
13  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: EURO 2016 Thread on: June 19, 2016, 03:06:35 pm
Congrats, Tender!
I werd narrisch. ;-)
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: World's most demented electoral system? on: May 25, 2016, 01:53:53 am
There have been other systems far more demented, but particular form of PR used in the Weimar Republic was quite special.
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How did it work?
Proportional automatic method with St. Lague (Webster) with a quota of 60,000 votes in electoral districts that usually comprised of a state or a Prussian province. Remainders were collected on a combined electoral district and the Reich level, seats allocated due to the same method. (There was a constraint that only as many compensatory seats could be gained as where gained at the electoral district level.

I don't think, that it is "demented" at all. BTW, it has an interesting side effect of representing turnout.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of 49.8% of Austrian voters on: May 24, 2016, 10:53:38 am
Not that it really has to be "invented". Hitler gained the German citizenship in 1932 to be a candidate for the Presidential election, and the act was quite loopholish and murky.

Hitler's brand of antisemitism has clearly its roots in the "christian social" and "alldeutsche" ideology of Austria of its time. And FPÖ's ideology has its roots also in the nationalist, racist, antisemite and antidemocratic traditions of the political right wing during the monarchy and the First Republic. Hofer is probably nearer to Dollfuß then Hitler, though.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of 49.8% of Austrian voters on: May 24, 2016, 02:58:27 am
The country that gave us Hitler. So what do you expect? ;-)
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Fatah on: May 24, 2016, 02:57:17 am
HFF (moderate hero opinion)
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: World's most demented electoral system? on: May 23, 2016, 06:13:30 am
And noone mentions the United States presidential election, where the loser can outright win due to the electoral college?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: April 29, 2016, 04:38:29 am
Seems more like a fight of personal circles than something that is really rooted in "political ideological wings". SPD in Berlin is the "bloodless party of governance without any ideas or even principles", anyway. Müller seems like a middle-of-the-road SPD technocrat to me, Stöss more like a "socially liberal" (American meaning) with a Wowereitish persona.

SPD will leave the coalition with the CDU after the election, anyway. Both parties and even the cabinet members despise each other in public. The only raison d'etre of this coalition was the enforcement of the building of the disputed Autobahn A 100 extension, which is now underway  and they twiddled their thumbs, since, which is an absolute disaster.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 18, 2016, 10:47:36 am
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Interesting north-south divide. What's the explanation behind it?
I don't think that it has anything to do with the "proximity to Berlin" or much with the "proximity to Saxony". Why should Berlin have influence over the Altmark and Börde regions? The southern parts have not been part of Saxony for 200 years (some never have, by the way).

The south of Sachsen-Anhalt has been one of the most industrialised regions of Germany until 1990 (coal and other mining, heavy and chemical industry). So deinstrualisation after 1990 has hit in the hardest possible way and this fosters brain drain and dissatisfaction of the leftovers. The north seems more complicated. It is generally more rural and agricultural, but had been more friendly to the SPD in the beginning, which was probably because of Reinhold Höppner, who had been an important figure in the Evangelical Church of the Church province of Saxony (which means the Prussian province of Saxony that is now part of Saxony-Anhalt). But this seems to have vanished over time and those voters probably went to the CDU. And if proximity plays a role, its probably the proximity to the West, where the jobs are.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 07:27:07 pm
In ST CDU-SPD-Green (Kenya) is the only coalition of some viability, but it would probably act more like a caretaker government (and for that reason it is possible we will see new elections there, soon. At least, I doubt, this would last the full term.

I can't really think of a viable minority government, either.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 06:10:58 pm
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Can AfD and Die Linke work together?
AfD mixes economic liberalism (real meaning, not the American one) and welfare cuts with social conservatism and xenophobia, so its literally the total opposite of what is in the Linke's party platform.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Puerto Rico Primary results thread (polls close @2pm ET?) on: March 06, 2016, 09:41:45 am
I doubt, that many of New York's Puerto Ricans are registered for the Puerto Rico Republican primary.

On the other hand, as Puerto Ricans would not be affected by anti immigration measueres, Rubio's appeal does not seem that much set in stone, does it?
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Will Angela Merkel be the German Chancellor until 2041? on: March 03, 2016, 06:23:27 am
But even if the CDU/CSU lead was to be permanent, there will most likely other figures emerge to succeed her as chancellor, especially as the percieved centrist course the CDU has taken under Merkel isn't beyond dispute inside the party, but was tolerated as it deemed electorally successful, and CDU is a "party of power, at most.

Her percieved refugee policies (which is merely public statements whereas backtracking and thwarting it afterwards in every possible way) is not that popular with conservatives, either.

At the moment state CDU leader of Rheinland-Pfalz, Julia Klöckner, seems to be trying hard, to emerge as an "anti-Merkel".

25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican South Carolina Primary results thread (polls close @7pm ET) on: February 20, 2016, 07:35:30 pm
Promising a "fun night" and then calling the race almost immediately. Media...
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