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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: April 29, 2016, 04:38:29 am
Seems more like a fight of personal circles than something that is really rooted in "political ideological wings". SPD in Berlin is the "bloodless party of governance without any ideas or even principles", anyway. Müller seems like a middle-of-the-road SPD technocrat to me, Stöss more like a "socially liberal" (American meaning) with a Wowereitish persona.

SPD will leave the coalition with the CDU after the election, anyway. Both parties and even the cabinet members despise each other in public. The only raison d'etre of this coalition was the enforcement of the building of the disputed Autobahn A 100 extension, which is now underway  and they twiddled their thumbs, since, which is an absolute disaster.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 18, 2016, 10:47:36 am
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Interesting north-south divide. What's the explanation behind it?
I don't think that it has anything to do with the "proximity to Berlin" or much with the "proximity to Saxony". Why should Berlin have influence over the Altmark and Börde regions? The southern parts have not been part of Saxony for 200 years (some never have, by the way).

The south of Sachsen-Anhalt has been one of the most industrialised regions of Germany until 1990 (coal and other mining, heavy and chemical industry). So deinstrualisation after 1990 has hit in the hardest possible way and this fosters brain drain and dissatisfaction of the leftovers. The north seems more complicated. It is generally more rural and agricultural, but had been more friendly to the SPD in the beginning, which was probably because of Reinhold Höppner, who had been an important figure in the Evangelical Church of the Church province of Saxony (which means the Prussian province of Saxony that is now part of Saxony-Anhalt). But this seems to have vanished over time and those voters probably went to the CDU. And if proximity plays a role, its probably the proximity to the West, where the jobs are.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 07:27:07 pm
In ST CDU-SPD-Green (Kenya) is the only coalition of some viability, but it would probably act more like a caretaker government (and for that reason it is possible we will see new elections there, soon. At least, I doubt, this would last the full term.

I can't really think of a viable minority government, either.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: March 13, 2016, 06:10:58 pm
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Can AfD and Die Linke work together?
AfD mixes economic liberalism (real meaning, not the American one) and welfare cuts with social conservatism and xenophobia, so its literally the total opposite of what is in the Linke's party platform.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican Puerto Rico Primary results thread (polls close @2pm ET?) on: March 06, 2016, 09:41:45 am
I doubt, that many of New York's Puerto Ricans are registered for the Puerto Rico Republican primary.

On the other hand, as Puerto Ricans would not be affected by anti immigration measueres, Rubio's appeal does not seem that much set in stone, does it?
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Will Angela Merkel be the German Chancellor until 2041? on: March 03, 2016, 06:23:27 am
But even if the CDU/CSU lead was to be permanent, there will most likely other figures emerge to succeed her as chancellor, especially as the percieved centrist course the CDU has taken under Merkel isn't beyond dispute inside the party, but was tolerated as it deemed electorally successful, and CDU is a "party of power, at most.

Her percieved refugee policies (which is merely public statements whereas backtracking and thwarting it afterwards in every possible way) is not that popular with conservatives, either.

At the moment state CDU leader of Rheinland-Pfalz, Julia Klöckner, seems to be trying hard, to emerge as an "anti-Merkel".

7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republican South Carolina Primary results thread (polls close @7pm ET) on: February 20, 2016, 07:35:30 pm
Promising a "fun night" and then calling the race almost immediately. Media...
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP as party of 9/11, as party of Bush, is officially dead tonight. on: February 20, 2016, 07:34:16 pm
What does this even mean?
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Walter Scheel alive at 96 on: February 16, 2016, 06:50:51 pm
Important to notice in this context, his rendition of the traditional German tune "Hoch auf dem gelben Wagen" (Upon the yellow (mail) coach), that he recorded while in office as secretary of state in 1973. ;-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGlO961zcF4
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: January 09, 2016, 08:37:05 am
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Given Germany love for censorship and over-nannying (ie. the dreadful, dictatorial and index-like BPjM), how those "Kameradschaft" not banned?
The BPjM isn't index-like. "Media imperiling the youth" are going "on the index", literally.

The irony is, that the "Kameradschaft" organisations this party is based on are already banned, but parties are specially protected by the Grundgesetz, in that they only can be banned via the Constitutional court. . This is an expensive procedure, so it is only used for quiet important parties and not for obscure right and left wing splinter groups. (There is an NPD case pending at the moment, but it would only be the third banned party in BRD/FRG history). There is also a minor procedure, that the Constitutional Court can state, that an organisation isn't a party, so it can be banned as a normal association. This happened to another militant Neonazi organisation, the FAP (Freiheitliche Arbeiterpartei) in 1994.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: January 07, 2016, 05:36:50 pm
The "Dritte Weg" is actually a "freie Kameradschaft" (street-fighting Nazi hoodlums) with a party banner, while the NPD is only collaborating and openly supporting such structures without beeing one and also have some people who ocassionally were suits.

So it is more a matter of style then ideology.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Opinion of this map? on: November 23, 2015, 11:29:10 am
That the Egyptian government doesn't control the Sinai is a bit overly simplistic, isn't it? Also, what's the matter with the stripe between Egypt and Sudan?
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Europe-Middle East-Africa Refugee Crisis General Thread on: November 23, 2015, 05:03:31 am
I've come to the conclusion, that Tender is just trolling, at this point.

BTW, anecdotical evidence from people helping refugees in Leipzig is, that most Syrian people their, claim to have fled either the war in general or the Assad regime.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 20, 2015, 06:23:26 pm
Now, two other pollsters have (Infratest, GMS) have basically confirmed the AfD upward trend. So Infratest and Forsa have them both up one percentage point on a weekly basis (8 respectively 9 per cent). GMS has them at 9 per cent (+4 up on a monthly basis, just like infratest in their Berlin poll).

15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 07:09:36 pm
The Left as a party has a clear "Let's help the refugees" stance, at least the party leadership has. Red-red-green in Thuringia has a little bit more of an pragmatic edge, but still clearly on the pro side. Left base members and voters, especially in the East, is a more blurred picture, but most opponents either stay at the closet or loosen their ties to the Left, at the moment.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do non-Americans actually still refer to "miles" a lot? on: November 19, 2015, 03:32:08 pm
In Germany it's mostly in bywords like meilenweit - "miles wide", actually a far distance or circumcircle, or for lyrical value. Of course, we also know the Meilenstein and the Siebenmeilenstiefel ("seven league boots", the Bannmeile, and Meile meaning "long street" or "boulevard". Nobody would use it as an exact distance. And we have Bonusmeilen à la "miles and more".

And nautical miles of course, but the average German is not a captain or sailor. And as others already have stated, Jazz fans do quite often. ;-)
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 06:19:40 am
In a funny move, Germany's most important public broadcaster, ARD, has decided that Xavier Naidoo is supposed to represent Germany at the next Eurovision song contest.

Naidoo, who first became famous for his Christianity-based soul pop, has outed himself during the last two years (first at the so called "peace picket movement", than at Pegida and the likes) as follower of the "Reichsbürger" movement, that claims, that the Federal republic is not the legitimate government of Germany as the Reich never ceased to exist, and other conspiracy theories, besides homophobia, mysogny and the likes - all those things, that will make him a well respected representative of this country. ;-)
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 06:11:32 am
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28 member states will never agree on something as thorny as immigration. So unless Germany wants to welcome them all it's just gonna have to accept some unpalatable measures: Securing the outside border and letting no one in who's coming from a safe country. Period. Then they can register in the camps in Syria's neighboring states with the EU moving some people into the union. Otherwise wave after wave (is that an acceptable term?) will come if they feel they might be able to get asylum just by arriving on the shores of Lesbos.
One thing is, that measures have to be taken that they at least do not starve "in the camps in Syria's neighbouring states", when there are no possibilities of subsistence besides help from outside.

The other thing, what "securing the border" means in this context. Just to send them away is just relocating the problem, obviously and just leading to millions of gipsies. By the way, what a "safe country" is, seems to be subject to sprains of definitions, for instance if one considers the situation of Roma in the Balkan countries, although I get the argument to concentrate on groups that need more help, at the moment, like Syrians. But if one uses this argument, like the Merkel government, one should not contradict it, with new proposed measurements against Syrian refugees, almost every day, as they do now.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 06:00:17 am
Forsa has it's own flaws, for instance wild swings for the headlines, and regular UNDERPOLLING of the SPD, which is quite funny, given Güllner's party mempership.

Of course, the writers of this peace seam to know nothing about the concept of margin of error. But for the moment, INSA is the outlier, and personal reasons and questionable polling methods may be the reasons for it. Just to put cherrypicked polls in context.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 04:17:47 am
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Is it impossible to form a minority government in Germany? Like, why can't the SPD and Greens form a coalition, and be supported on the outside by Linke?
1. It is constitutionally possible, but a bit iffy, as the president is allowed to appoint the candidate with the most votes for chancellor, after they have been voting for two weeks, even if he has no absolute majority, but he does not have to. So a minority government needs the de facto approvement of the president to come in place.

2. The biggest German political topos is probably "muh stability, unlike evil Weimar", so the reputation of the model "minority government" isn't that high and it has not been tried as it wasn't necessary, since 1945 on the federal level. There have been some minority governments on state level, but they have had either interim character (like NRW 2010-2012), or have been quasi-coalitions with the junior partner not having ministerial posts (e.g. "Magdeburg model").
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 04:06:56 am
The AfD has hit 10,5% in the latest INSA/YouGov poll on wahlrecht.de, overtaking the Greens and the Left!

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 23,5%
AfD: 10,5%
Grünen: 10,0%
DL: 10,0%
FDP: 5,0%
Others: 6%
The boss of INSA is also an AfD advisor and they get their data from the YouGov online panel. So let us take this with as much salt as possible, until it is confirmed by other pollsters.

https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/zapp/blog/AfD-drittstaerkste-Partei-Zweifel-an-Umfrage,afd330.html

For instance, Forsa, which is the only other post-Paris poll out, yet has only an 1-point bump for the Afd, from 7 to 8 per cent.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 13, 2015, 04:54:15 pm
No surprise: Our left-leftist friends are professionals in reality-denying.
We all know, that dehumanization in terminology is common in Austria, but still there is no reason for this one-liners of yours, every day.

The policy of Europe trying a common policy of blocking the refugees at the outside borders has collapsed and all measures that can be taken to block them while keeping at least remnants of humanity, dignity and civilization will not be sufficient.
Concrete walls and self-shooting devices would, of course. We've had that, already.

The policy of every state building its own fences only leads to new waves, change of routes, uncertainty. It's cynyc to shorten the subsidies for refugee camps in Turkey etc. for years, so that even surviving is no longer sure for those, who have been there for four years, with no perspective for peace or making a living, anymore, and then to tell them they have to stay there forever in the mud, and on the other hand make solemn declamations wanting to "fight the reasons for people fleeing", despite fighting the people fleeing, actually.

And its just cynyc to complain about, that only men were coming (which is not true) and then to forestall family reunion measures.

And its just cynyc for every state to block all people at there borders and just let the other state alone.

Enough ranted.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Burma General Election - November 8, 2015 on: November 09, 2015, 10:45:40 am
So the 2010 election is now seen as "not democratic" by all non-Burmese, despite the same rules were applied?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 28, 2015, 04:46:38 pm
Oh yeah, because "the Germans" are a monolithic bloc with monolithic interests and opinions...

Link for the newest Seehofer saber shaking: http://www.bild.de/bildlive/2015/18-seehofer-43180494.bild.html
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 28, 2015, 06:43:01 am
Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.
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