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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: January 09, 2016, 08:37:05 am
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Given Germany love for censorship and over-nannying (ie. the dreadful, dictatorial and index-like BPjM), how those "Kameradschaft" not banned?
The BPjM isn't index-like. "Media imperiling the youth" are going "on the index", literally.

The irony is, that the "Kameradschaft" organisations this party is based on are already banned, but parties are specially protected by the Grundgesetz, in that they only can be banned via the Constitutional court. . This is an expensive procedure, so it is only used for quiet important parties and not for obscure right and left wing splinter groups. (There is an NPD case pending at the moment, but it would only be the third banned party in BRD/FRG history). There is also a minor procedure, that the Constitutional Court can state, that an organisation isn't a party, so it can be banned as a normal association. This happened to another militant Neonazi organisation, the FAP (Freiheitliche Arbeiterpartei) in 1994.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: January 07, 2016, 05:36:50 pm
The "Dritte Weg" is actually a "freie Kameradschaft" (street-fighting Nazi hoodlums) with a party banner, while the NPD is only collaborating and openly supporting such structures without beeing one and also have some people who ocassionally were suits.

So it is more a matter of style then ideology.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Opinion of this map? on: November 23, 2015, 11:29:10 am
That the Egyptian government doesn't control the Sinai is a bit overly simplistic, isn't it? Also, what's the matter with the stripe between Egypt and Sudan?
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Europe-Middle East-Africa Refugee Crisis General Thread on: November 23, 2015, 05:03:31 am
I've come to the conclusion, that Tender is just trolling, at this point.

BTW, anecdotical evidence from people helping refugees in Leipzig is, that most Syrian people their, claim to have fled either the war in general or the Assad regime.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 20, 2015, 06:23:26 pm
Now, two other pollsters have (Infratest, GMS) have basically confirmed the AfD upward trend. So Infratest and Forsa have them both up one percentage point on a weekly basis (8 respectively 9 per cent). GMS has them at 9 per cent (+4 up on a monthly basis, just like infratest in their Berlin poll).

6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 07:09:36 pm
The Left as a party has a clear "Let's help the refugees" stance, at least the party leadership has. Red-red-green in Thuringia has a little bit more of an pragmatic edge, but still clearly on the pro side. Left base members and voters, especially in the East, is a more blurred picture, but most opponents either stay at the closet or loosen their ties to the Left, at the moment.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do non-Americans actually still refer to "miles" a lot? on: November 19, 2015, 03:32:08 pm
In Germany it's mostly in bywords like meilenweit - "miles wide", actually a far distance or circumcircle, or for lyrical value. Of course, we also know the Meilenstein and the Siebenmeilenstiefel ("seven league boots", the Bannmeile, and Meile meaning "long street" or "boulevard". Nobody would use it as an exact distance. And we have Bonusmeilen à la "miles and more".

And nautical miles of course, but the average German is not a captain or sailor. And as others already have stated, Jazz fans do quite often. ;-)
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 06:19:40 am
In a funny move, Germany's most important public broadcaster, ARD, has decided that Xavier Naidoo is supposed to represent Germany at the next Eurovision song contest.

Naidoo, who first became famous for his Christianity-based soul pop, has outed himself during the last two years (first at the so called "peace picket movement", than at Pegida and the likes) as follower of the "Reichsbürger" movement, that claims, that the Federal republic is not the legitimate government of Germany as the Reich never ceased to exist, and other conspiracy theories, besides homophobia, mysogny and the likes - all those things, that will make him a well respected representative of this country. ;-)
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 06:11:32 am
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28 member states will never agree on something as thorny as immigration. So unless Germany wants to welcome them all it's just gonna have to accept some unpalatable measures: Securing the outside border and letting no one in who's coming from a safe country. Period. Then they can register in the camps in Syria's neighboring states with the EU moving some people into the union. Otherwise wave after wave (is that an acceptable term?) will come if they feel they might be able to get asylum just by arriving on the shores of Lesbos.
One thing is, that measures have to be taken that they at least do not starve "in the camps in Syria's neighbouring states", when there are no possibilities of subsistence besides help from outside.

The other thing, what "securing the border" means in this context. Just to send them away is just relocating the problem, obviously and just leading to millions of gipsies. By the way, what a "safe country" is, seems to be subject to sprains of definitions, for instance if one considers the situation of Roma in the Balkan countries, although I get the argument to concentrate on groups that need more help, at the moment, like Syrians. But if one uses this argument, like the Merkel government, one should not contradict it, with new proposed measurements against Syrian refugees, almost every day, as they do now.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 06:00:17 am
Forsa has it's own flaws, for instance wild swings for the headlines, and regular UNDERPOLLING of the SPD, which is quite funny, given Güllner's party mempership.

Of course, the writers of this peace seam to know nothing about the concept of margin of error. But for the moment, INSA is the outlier, and personal reasons and questionable polling methods may be the reasons for it. Just to put cherrypicked polls in context.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 04:17:47 am
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Is it impossible to form a minority government in Germany? Like, why can't the SPD and Greens form a coalition, and be supported on the outside by Linke?
1. It is constitutionally possible, but a bit iffy, as the president is allowed to appoint the candidate with the most votes for chancellor, after they have been voting for two weeks, even if he has no absolute majority, but he does not have to. So a minority government needs the de facto approvement of the president to come in place.

2. The biggest German political topos is probably "muh stability, unlike evil Weimar", so the reputation of the model "minority government" isn't that high and it has not been tried as it wasn't necessary, since 1945 on the federal level. There have been some minority governments on state level, but they have had either interim character (like NRW 2010-2012), or have been quasi-coalitions with the junior partner not having ministerial posts (e.g. "Magdeburg model").
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 19, 2015, 04:06:56 am
The AfD has hit 10,5% in the latest INSA/YouGov poll on wahlrecht.de, overtaking the Greens and the Left!

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 23,5%
AfD: 10,5%
Grünen: 10,0%
DL: 10,0%
FDP: 5,0%
Others: 6%
The boss of INSA is also an AfD advisor and they get their data from the YouGov online panel. So let us take this with as much salt as possible, until it is confirmed by other pollsters.

https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/zapp/blog/AfD-drittstaerkste-Partei-Zweifel-an-Umfrage,afd330.html

For instance, Forsa, which is the only other post-Paris poll out, yet has only an 1-point bump for the Afd, from 7 to 8 per cent.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 13, 2015, 04:54:15 pm
No surprise: Our left-leftist friends are professionals in reality-denying.
We all know, that dehumanization in terminology is common in Austria, but still there is no reason for this one-liners of yours, every day.

The policy of Europe trying a common policy of blocking the refugees at the outside borders has collapsed and all measures that can be taken to block them while keeping at least remnants of humanity, dignity and civilization will not be sufficient.
Concrete walls and self-shooting devices would, of course. We've had that, already.

The policy of every state building its own fences only leads to new waves, change of routes, uncertainty. It's cynyc to shorten the subsidies for refugee camps in Turkey etc. for years, so that even surviving is no longer sure for those, who have been there for four years, with no perspective for peace or making a living, anymore, and then to tell them they have to stay there forever in the mud, and on the other hand make solemn declamations wanting to "fight the reasons for people fleeing", despite fighting the people fleeing, actually.

And its just cynyc to complain about, that only men were coming (which is not true) and then to forestall family reunion measures.

And its just cynyc for every state to block all people at there borders and just let the other state alone.

Enough ranted.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Burma General Election - November 8, 2015 on: November 09, 2015, 10:45:40 am
So the 2010 election is now seen as "not democratic" by all non-Burmese, despite the same rules were applied?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 28, 2015, 04:46:38 pm
Oh yeah, because "the Germans" are a monolithic bloc with monolithic interests and opinions...

Link for the newest Seehofer saber shaking: http://www.bild.de/bildlive/2015/18-seehofer-43180494.bild.html
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: October 28, 2015, 06:43:01 am
Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Serious question: When will the US start taking in asylum seekers ? on: August 27, 2015, 08:18:22 am
Isn't "asylum seeker" a genuine European judicial status, that doesn't apply to the US? Or are there similar terms and states?
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Merkel running for 4th term on: August 04, 2015, 09:10:10 am
I think the "Die Linke is nowhere near a left social democrat party" is way overblown in this thread.

Initially the Greens drew their support from socialist to conservative ecologist and pacifist groups and other "new social movements" and also happened to be a vacuum-cleaner for many of the small "communist" groups of the seventies (the so called K-Gruppen) that wanted to do serious politics, now. What came out of these processes happened to be left of the SPD at least until the nineties.

Left labour movements were also part of this, but these issues have become much less important over time as the original, often well educated supporters have become older and more affluent and the Greens have tried to reach out more to the "political center". Today "socialism" is a fringe view inside the Greens. To use the forum meme, as a broad generalization the party as a whole they are socially more liberal, but fiscally more conservative then the SPD, today.

The Left is a more complicated beast. In the east they represent old GDR nostalgists, kind of higly educated, middle-aged people, dissatisfied with the socioeconomic results of the German unification, marginalised people to some extent and youngish left-wing activist people.
When in government they have acted as pragmatic left-wing social democrats.

In the West they represent the remnants of the 70ies "New Left", dissatisfied left-wing Social Democrats and Greens, marginalised people to some extent, youngish activists and weird left-wing fringe groups.

19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: July 19, 2015, 02:32:06 pm
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"Alliance for Progress & Decampment"
Isn't "Incampment" more in line with their ideology? ;-)
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Scenario for Germany 2017 on: July 15, 2015, 01:47:35 am
The polls haven't changed much since the election in 2013 (with the exception of the AfD wave which is at least over for now). There is no reason, they will change much if they haven't despite of NSA, NSU, Ukraine, Greece, refugees, TTIP, data retention, minimum wage, pensions reform ( in the opposite direction as the same government forces Greece to go, btw) etc.

According to the polls around 60 per cent are satisfied with the government's stance in the negotiations with Grece and 25 per cent say, they are too soft. Of the remaining 15 per cent, most are already voting Left, Greens or to some extent SPD. Not much room to grow on this issue for the Left.

Of course, the government would become unpopular if they had to put through harsh austerity measures in Germany. "Pro-austerity" would dwindle, but on the other hand many would claim it's the fault of "greedy asylum moochers" and the electoral consequences would be dire.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: July 13, 2015, 03:44:11 pm
Btw how is the new LITERALLT STALIN government doing in Thuringia?

(Also, the tail-end of the Green government of BW?)
It's working quite smoothly. No gulags and mass executions reported by now. Also key industries like bratwurst manufacturers still in private ownerhsip.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: July 13, 2015, 03:41:19 pm
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but very little has changed to the structure of the economy, which is why the housing market looks like it is overheating again.
Looks like most of the Spanish "economic revocery" is because of a new real estate bubble, too.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: July 08, 2015, 02:29:05 pm
Lucke has now officially left the party.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Tolerance on: July 07, 2015, 02:48:08 am
Not to split some skull over each difference of opinion is an obvious freedom concept. It has its limits, of course.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: July 07, 2015, 12:42:29 am
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Well, then, why Die Republikaners never had any success?
Three times in state parliaments (2x Baden-Württemberg, once Berlin), once in European parliament isn't "never had any success". The fate of the Reps was marred by the two big i of German right wing parties: incompetence and infighting. The infighting, of course, has to do with German history and the basic question weither or at least how near they wanted to be to outright Nazis. It's the same basic question that is splitting the AfD now.

This was twenty to twenty-five years ago, though. So opinions in the population can shift over time. European integration was much less dense, then. The potential of the Volksparteien, especially of the SPD to integrate broad parts of the population (socially and politically) is in decline. (Related to the CDU this is overshadowed by the Merkel effect).


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