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December 05, 2016, 09:36:36 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 15, 2016, 08:47:28 am
He's minister of foreign affairs. That's the reason for his approval ratings. Westerwelle was the only one to screw up in this regard. If not for that he's just "bland technocrat third-way SPD", which would not induce such approval ratings.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Wouldn't it be better if Hungary was called Magyarland or the Magyar Republic? on: November 12, 2016, 05:49:29 pm
One I'm curious about is Georgia. I assume we call it Georgia because it's patron saint is St. George, but why not then also not call England Georgia? Georgians call it Sakartvelo and the Russians call it Gruziya. Why Georgia?
Wikipedia says it stems from Persian "gurgan" which would mean "land of the wolves", and the Russian form comes from that, too.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Please stop overreacting on: November 10, 2016, 06:24:52 pm
The Democrats lost a presidential election, where they got more votes than the Republican candidate, and a shift of a mere 100.000 votes in some swing states would have been a win and now people in this forum act as if they were completely doomed for all times, if they don't either copy Trump in style, move more to the right, move more to the left, pander to the percieved anger of midwestern middle-class whites or whatever.

This is as much hyperbole as the "Republicans are doomed for all times" after 2008 and 2012 and reminds me of German overreaction to AfD results, though a vast majority of people don't vote for them.
4  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: How do you pronounce "Nietzsche?" on: November 10, 2016, 05:32:16 pm
For a German, this discussion looks funny. (Probably as funny as for the Speaker of a Slawic language the American pronounciation of the name "Kasich").

It's basically N - long i/ee - t - (mute z) - sh - weak e (a sound between a and e, which is probably meant by -uh here)

There are many variants of and related forms to this name like: Nitsche, Nietsche, Nitzsche, Nitsch, Nitschke and so on. It is derived of the Name "Nikolaus", and I would still bet some Slavic influence but I am not sure about that.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Wouldn't it be better if Austria were called ... on: November 10, 2016, 08:28:03 am
Let's call it Roafmsob:  "remnants of a fallen monarchy southeast of Bavaria" ;-)
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How are we supposed to make predictions now? on: November 10, 2016, 06:53:59 am
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov10.html#item-3

Seems, the polls were off in both directions. And remember, that there weren't many polls in November, maybe because of the "Clinton will win, anyway" storyline.
7  General Discussion / History / Re: An authoritarian right wing government replacing an authoritarian left wing one on: November 02, 2016, 11:02:38 am
I always thougt, there was some ideological shift with the coup in Burma in 1988/89.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FBI Reviewing Clinton emails news: LATEST - Emails from Weiner investigation on: October 28, 2016, 04:45:22 pm
Even the German television is covering this. And they just leave me confused. What is going on?
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is "Americans are stupid, so Trump will win?" solid electoral analysis? on: October 19, 2016, 02:15:02 am
At least I would not put too much faith in the intelligence of the people that elected George W. Bush twice. But "will" is of course, just plain wrong.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 18, 2016, 03:00:32 pm
Quote
Marzahn-Hellersdorf 5, and to a lesser extent n°4, really stick out in the East. What is this neighborhood like ? Is it a new thing, or was it already a bourgeois cluster in the East before 1990 ?
It's mainly suburban. One-family-houses and two-family-houses, old and new. Such areas are normally the strongest for the CDU in German cities. (higher income, older population, more Christianity, less diversity, and so on).

Most of the development in Kaulsdorf seems to have been from about 1909 to 1940 with some extensions in the eighties and the 2000s. In Mahlsdorf it's from 1902 to 1940 with some 1990s. So it is basically "old suburbia" with some "new suburbia". And so its no "new thing"
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 18, 2016, 02:56:18 pm
Low energy CDU 0,2 per cent in front of the Greens in East Berlin overall. Tough fight for fourth place. ;-)
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 18, 2016, 02:37:34 pm
Mitte 6 (Gesundbrunnen) - SPD hold - by a hair against Greens
Spandau 4 (Staaken - Falkenhagener Feld Süd) - CDU hold - by a hair against SPD
Tempelhof-Schöneberg 1 (Schöneberg-Nord) - Greens hold
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 18, 2016, 02:22:00 pm
And the first district is fully counted. AFD gain Lichtenberg 1 (Hohenschönhausen-Nord, Wartenberg, Falkenberg) from LINKE. Expect some of those to follow, although the main loser, percentage wise seems to be the SPD here.

It also seems the Linke has lost votes in their Plattenbau strongholds and won big in the inner city west. AFD is acellerating the transformation of the Linke to a normal left wing party, a bit.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 04, 2016, 01:54:44 pm
Okay, with the last swath of votes it would now be almost 8 percent. It seems more and more likely the Greens are out.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 04, 2016, 01:47:13 pm
The Greens would need around 7 per cent of the votes (around one inf five) not counted. Not totally impossible as postal ballots are often counted last and the cities are undercounted until now, but it does not seem to likely and the rural areas undercounted by now seem to be a mixed bag.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 04, 2016, 01:07:15 pm
If anybody ist interested in results as counted

http://service.mvnet.de/wahlen/2016_land/dateien/atlanten/ergebnisse.2016/landtagswahl.html
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: September 04, 2016, 10:55:04 am
Some traits (exit poll by ARD): 56 per cent view the economic situation in MVP as "good", 73 per cent approve of the work of prime minister Erwin Sellering. Around three of four say, this election won't affect their personal life.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Danes don't like Trump much on: August 31, 2016, 07:46:32 am
Danes would vote like all other Western Europeans would. Interesting conclusion here...
What is wrong with American Whites! Huh
Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses...
19  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: EURO 2016 Thread on: July 02, 2016, 12:56:18 am
I'm rooting for a final Wales - Iceland now, because why not? And someone has to kick these strange and unedifying Portugese out.
20  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: EURO 2016 Thread on: June 29, 2016, 01:57:46 am
Quote
Germany is gonna sleepwalk to this title
Sleepwalk? Against Italy? You must be kidding. The chances aren't bad they will end their losing streak against Italy in big tournaments, but it will be hard and interesting game, anyway.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Potential UK General Election Late 2016 / Early 2017 on: June 28, 2016, 11:59:36 am
They should not hold Party leader elections by popular vote, if they dump the winning candidate at the first possible moment under fabricated accusations.
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: EURO 2016 Thread on: June 19, 2016, 03:06:35 pm
Congrats, Tender!
I werd narrisch. ;-)
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: World's most demented electoral system? on: May 25, 2016, 01:53:53 am
There have been other systems far more demented, but particular form of PR used in the Weimar Republic was quite special.
Quote

How did it work?
Proportional automatic method with St. Lague (Webster) with a quota of 60,000 votes in electoral districts that usually comprised of a state or a Prussian province. Remainders were collected on a combined electoral district and the Reich level, seats allocated due to the same method. (There was a constraint that only as many compensatory seats could be gained as where gained at the electoral district level.

I don't think, that it is "demented" at all. BTW, it has an interesting side effect of representing turnout.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of 49.8% of Austrian voters on: May 24, 2016, 10:53:38 am
Not that it really has to be "invented". Hitler gained the German citizenship in 1932 to be a candidate for the Presidential election, and the act was quite loopholish and murky.

Hitler's brand of antisemitism has clearly its roots in the "christian social" and "alldeutsche" ideology of Austria of its time. And FPÖ's ideology has its roots also in the nationalist, racist, antisemite and antidemocratic traditions of the political right wing during the monarchy and the First Republic. Hofer is probably nearer to Dollfuß then Hitler, though.
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of 49.8% of Austrian voters on: May 24, 2016, 02:58:27 am
The country that gave us Hitler. So what do you expect? ;-)
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