What kind of incentive could the SPD offer die Linke or the Greens, or even Pirate-ish guy, to withdraw from second round and endorse them instead ?

Mabe some policy-driven projects like "a stronger effort at building day care centers and schools" with an accurate plan with numbers or doing something at the culture budget or having more transparency or whatever. But this all would be officialy unofficial as people don't like such deals. Höll (Linke) said today that she wants to participate in the second term. Feiertag ist too much anti-establishment to deal with Jung. I really don't know what the Greens will do (missed their election party because of a cold).

At least the FDP managed to exceed expectations.

FDP guy Hobusch claimed a "quite good" result and at the same time told, SPD result was a "total desaster" (Jung gut more than twenty times the votes of Hobusch).

Actually the 2nd round is in three weeks (seems to have to do with the February vacations). This could get quite interesting if there was some "All but Horst and Jung"-Movement at the left. Greens, Linke and semi-pirate Feiertag together got 32 per cent.

Greens and Linke both have party meetings on Tuesday how to deal with this.

And we now know that the Leipziger Volkszeitung did a junk poll.

Polls in Leipzig have closed some minutes ago. Up-to-date results can be found at the world wide web: (I'm not allowed to post links).

leipzig.de/de/buerger/politik/wahlen/obm/2013/wahlergebnis-24701.aspx

Turnout is higher then in 2006 (around 41 per cent).

[mayoral election of Leipzig]

The mayoral election of Leipzig, Germany's 11th largest town with nowadays a tendency of growth for years, will be held the 27th of January, which is actually tomorrow. A possible 2nd round - if no candidate reaches an outright majority would be held on 17th of February.

In the second round all candidates could compete again (as in Baden-Württemberg) - most people don't know that and think it's a runoff of the first two. Who gets the most votes, wins, even if it ist not a majority of 50 percent.

Mayors in Saxony are elected for seven-year-terms, which is an awful long period IMO. So the last election was in 2006, when former Mayor Wolfgang Tiefensee (SPD), who was reelected with 2005 in a landslide, went to Berlin to become Federal Minister/ Secretary of Transportation.

Burkhard Jung, former head of the local social and youth authority (I don't know how to translate "Dezernent für Jugend und Soziales" to English properly), won in the second round with 41.6 percent. Turnout was at 31.9 percent.

All mayors since 1990 have been members of the SPD. They allways polled between 40 and 50 percent in the first round - except for Tiefensee 2005 who 67 percent.
There are six candidates

Burkhard Jung (SPD, Incumbent)
Horst Wawrzinsky (CDU, until recently police president of Leipzig)
Barbara Höll (Linke, Member of the Bundestag, also a candidate in the election of 2005)
Felix Ekhardt (Grüne, scientist - environment and sustainability stuff)
René Hobusch (FDP, lawyer)
Dirk Feitertag (supported by the Pirates, lawyer with some social activism)

Biggest campaign seems how to deal with the high demand for day care centers and schools (as many young people migrate to Leipzig and found there families here there has been a continuing Baby boom for years after in the 90s many day care centers and schools were closed down.

There were also some scandals relating the city beaurocracy - e. g. they have been illegally selling houses with unknown owners too cheap which is near dispossession for years - well it's hard to put in only one sentence.
The CEO the local waterworks illegaly burned several hundred millions of Euros in high risk financial products. But Jung tried (and until know succeeded) not to get connected with this. Also there was a large media camapign in the only local newspaper that the local authorities were too mild agains drug abusers in Leipzig an that there was to much crime related to this.


Jung ist trying his first term as a full success, saying that the jobless rate is split by half and this would be his accomplishment - and many investors (logistics, automotive industry, biotechnologies) and tourists are coming to Leipzig. Well, we all know that stuff when there is no real political platform to run on.

When the CDU nominated Horst all feared a hard law and order camaign - related to the drugs and securitiy thing. There were some strange police actions in the last months like big raids in public parks (so called "Komplexkontrollen") and an police assault at a kindergarden in Connewitz claiming to go after drug criminals - but actially as a campaigner there were no such undertones. So actually he wants to do all what Jung does, but better.

Barbara Höll mainly is a federal politician and not that much of a local figure as though she ist from Leipzig. Her platform has more to do with federal than will local policies. She got around 15 per cent in 2005 and she will propably will get there again.

Felix Ekardt is an interesting figure as a person but mainly unknown. The Greens
made some self-ironic campaign posters and flyers that actually seemed to irritate some people. Platform is typically Green: transparency, environmental stuff, more money for children (new day care centers and schools etc.)).

Hobusch is at typicial FDP guy.

Feiertag ist a lawyer for social law who has a social justice, building of day care centers, transparency and ticket-free transportation platform.


Voting ethusiasm seems to be very low - which is a result of the so called "Leipziger Modell" to let participate the big parties proportionally in the local government and having now coalitions and making the decision making and responsibilities intransparent - but also of the candidates all percieved as weak contenders.

So Jung, though many people don't like him as he stand for nothing, will probably win. One local newspaper poll from 2nd of January - so actually shortly after Christmas and befor the main campaign - had him at 55% with Horst at 21, Höll at 12, Ekardt and Feiertag at 4 and Hobusch at zero.

And - what really matters most - not a few months ahead of the Bundestag election.

Actually, no one knows, as this never happened anywhere, before. But as there is some discussion as black-wellow did want to tailor the federal election law in their favour there is some uproar possible.

@Watermelon: Extra seats are allocated, if one party wins more FPTP districts than it would get seats in the Landtag according to proportional representation for the full 135 seats, so called Überhangmandate. As Niedersachsen has a share of 87/135 "direct seats" there are many Überhangmandate possible. Those are compensated but a mixture of rounding errors and D'Hondt seat allocation can lead to a fully 50/50 in the Landtag.

According to the german wikipedia the SPD in Delmenhorst had some kind of corruption scandal, where the former SPD Landtag member Swantje Hartmann was involved.

Here are some results for the Göttingen region

(http: / /) wahlen.kds.de/2013ltw/index.html , I cannot include links.

SPD won the constituencies of Göttingen and Göttingen/Münden, Northeim, Einbeck, Osterode and Holzminden (where Minister of the Interior, Schürnemann (CDU), lost).
CDU won Duderstadt.

Which makes a FTPT net gain of 1 for the SPD in this region (Holzminden).

and it did not rule Überhangmandate unconstitutional per se - but because the journos understand nothing of the matter and did not expect the verdict, they are failing to notice that. Unanimous verdict btw.

Well, as of now, where "internal" Überhangmandate are possible, there is negative vote weight. Of course the mode of seat allocation could be changed to fix seat contingents per federal state (as in Spain or Finland for example). But this would not be a voting system not proportional as a whole, as the Constitutional Court demanded.

And if half of the seats should be given to the winners of single seat constituencies, as is the case since 1949, there would not be any possibility of compensation for the Überhangmandate. But the court demanded that 15 is the constitutional limit.

And there would be one argument less for the five percent threshold.

So maybe this easiest way to get rid of the negative vote weight, is not possible by constitutional restrictions and political opportunity.

Those seats seem quite safe to me. So the Linke could stay in Bundestag even if they don't make the threshold. At least, that was the case before the electoral reform.

The "electoral reform" had no influence on the Grundmandatsklausel, that gives parties who won three constituencies full representation, even if they missed the five percent treshold.

@Comrade Sibboleth: Berlin-Treptow-Köpenick is the constituency, Gregor Gysi won twice with much more personal votes than votes for the Left Party list. As long as Gysi stands there, it should be safe.

Actually, Dora Heyenn is not that unknown in the Left party. She's Chairwoman of the Left Party in the Hamburg parliament. Interesting are the over 200 invalid votes. What's going on in Göttingen?

As I read in the Taz from Monday or yesterday, some Pirate parliament members think of voting for Albig if they "like the coalition treaty".
Of course, they like "Schleswig Holstein traffic light" more than an "grand coalition".
I think, they, at least some, will vote with them on occasion

It seems to me, as if you once again rebooted to hack mode, politico. Actually, the Republican Party primary electorate as a whole should be blamed for "making trouble" by humiliating the inevitable triangulation champ bound to lead the US to a new dawn by denying him the nomination as long as possible. Who finds irony in my attempt to ironize politico's attempt to find a scapegoat for a primary season, that - in the perspective of 2010 and the Republican confidence in winning 2012 -  seems to be as THE capital political market failure - can keep it for him- or herself.

Just 2 cents from a German left winger. *g*

It seems to be something similar to the thing I know from Germany as "Magna-Doodle".

Maybe Romney will surprise us all...

Romney 38%
Paul 32%
Santorum 21%
Gingrich 9%