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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Discussion / History / Re: Most Overrated and Underrated British Monarchs on: August 31, 2017, 12:38:34 pm
The main question is of course, which former monarchs are known by the general public

If I go for "Roman kings and emeperors", it's probably just

Charlemagne

Otto I. (not necessarily, but "they were all named Otto" could stick)
Heinrich IV. (maybe not by name, but "there was this king who was subdued by the pope in front of this castle somewhere")

Barbarosssa ("has a cool name and is sleeping under the Kyffhäuser mountain")

Friedrich II. (not necessarily by name but "there was this king who was only in Italy buliding things and doing falconry and giving all the power north of the Alps to the nobility, because he wanted to have nothing to do with this cold and uncomfortable region"

Rudolf von Habsburg (only for being the first Habsburger on the Roman throne, by sophisticated people maybe for ending the "emperorless time", which had only three wannabe-emperors...)

Sigismund (for killing Jan Hus)

very maybe Maximilian I. (did stuff)
Karl V. (did evil stuff (protestant), did evil stuff but was fighting the Lutheran heresy (catholic))

I don't think anyone remembers the Habsburg emperors after Rudolf, only maybe Franz II. as he was the last.


And of course people know Wilhelm II., and some also Wilhelm I...

2  General Discussion / History / Re: Most Overrated and Underrated British Monarchs on: August 31, 2017, 08:24:26 am
Aethelstan surely has the coolest name.

Victoria is surely very overrated as she was queen in a very decisive period of British history. But by her time, the monarchs were mostly figureheads. But there sill seems to be this "Victoria was a great queen" sentiment everywhere.
3  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: For a modern European, how many centuries back before a decent %age of his....? on: August 20, 2017, 09:29:06 am
Quote
In contrast, my understanding of Germany was that property was much more likely to be divided among all sons.  I also believe that all sons of a German baron would be barons.  So I think the social barriers of marrying outside your class would be a bit more impenetrable than in England, where the social classes were a bit more informal.
This varies over time and space. There were primogenitur (oldest son inherits) and ultimogenitur (the youngest son inherits the property), equal division beween the sons and several modes unequal division in different spaces. Of course, in Germany east of the Elbe, there were also several forms of servitude. But even as primogenitur became common in the German nobility from the 15th century onwards, they still were a very distinct social group, where intermarriage with bourgeois was not very common  until the 19th century. Younger sons were often used for the military, (high catholic) clergy or high administration post and where economically secured this way, but stayed nobles and married nobles.

So for connections to the high nobility you would have to look for: children out of wedlock and morganatic marriages, intermarriages between nobles and (more or less) high bourgeois (but the nobilitation of high bourgeois is more common than the other way around), those who lost there status of nobility (which exists, but is rare).
. Or you would have to look at earlier times as the early and high middle ages seem to have been times of greater social mobility, but of course you don't find genealogical sources for that age (which is the basic problem for research, you have to find a connection to the high nobility at least in the fifteenth century to find a connection to Charlemagne.

Of course, my daughter has over 500 billion possible ways, where in one (or fiftythousand) you could find Charlemagne but it is not sure and the high number alone does not say too much about probability. There are, of course, other opinions, that say, that the high number alone makes it probable. But for instance, for my ancestral lines, it is probably cut in half alone because of my Slavic and Baltic ancestors, that most likely are not ancestors of Charlemagne.

4  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: For a modern European, how many centuries back before a decent %age of his....? on: August 20, 2017, 05:42:53 am
The problem with "every living autchthon Central European is a descendant of Charlemagne is that it doesn't take social status in account. It is much more probable to have children with someone from the same or a compareable social status group. High noblemen have had some productive advantages in this regard. So even as the number of theoretically possible ancestors doubles with every generation, and at some point exceeds the number of the world population at this time, that doesn't mean that at every possible space there's a different ancestor.
The extreme would be a child of brother and sister which would cut the number of possible ancestors in half. But even if you have cousins as parents, which was quite common both in the nobility and for normal people, the child has only six grandparents instead of eight. If you do this over two generations it's possible it only has 8 great-grandparents instead of 16.

And if social and local mobility is not high, than there you have many, many generations in the same village or at least parish, that will lead to a huge ancestor implex, even if the canonical law of how close one may be related to marry, was adhered to. Of course, if one is related to Charlemagne in some generations all in this village or parish will be, e.g. if the local nobleman is a descendant of some high nobility bastards has an illegitimate child with his dairy maid (cliché, I know). Or as the last female descendants of the counts of Orlamünde married some wealthy confecitoner in a Thuringian town. So, as my wife has ancestors that are craftsmen in Thuringian towns, there is a chance...

In my known ancestry I have
Polish, German and Lithuanian peasants from East Prussia
evangelic exiles from Salzburg
Sorabian and German small peasants and home weavers from Upper Lusatia and the old markgraviate of Meissen
peasants from West Thuringia
German settlers and peasants from the Posen region

and my wife has
shepherds from West Thuringia, which given a name, that could be french (but there could also be other explanations) could be of French Huguenot origin.
peasants and workers all over the place from West Thuringia, Anhalt, the Halle region and middle Saxony
craftsmen from towns in the Vogtland, Thuringia and the Erzgebirge.

It just does not look like Charlemagne territory to me







5  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: 2016 Results by White Ancestry Group on: August 20, 2017, 05:12:04 am
What does Eastern European mean as a category in this context, as there are several Eastern European ancestry groups listed?
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: August 20, 2017, 03:13:38 am
So actually he told them not to vote. That's the only reading that makes at least a little bit of sense.

Or they are to vote for the BIG, the German branch of the AKP.

 
 
That will be very hard since the BIG is not running in a single state.

There is another splinter party of conservative Turkish Germans with ties to the AKP, though, the Allianz Deutscher Demokraten (sic!), that is running in NRW. They got about 0.1 per cent in the last state election.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: August 19, 2017, 07:45:20 am
So actually he told them not to vote. That's the only reading that makes at least a little bit of sense.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: August 11, 2017, 09:33:19 am
"Wir Deutsche" is actually terrible German...
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: August 09, 2017, 04:28:46 am
Quote
What jumped out at me was the forecast 2nd place finishes for the AfD in 6 seats in the southwest state of Saxony mostly surrounding the Dresden region. OTOH, Die Linke seems to be the default 2nd place position in most other eastern German states along with the SPD.

There were polls in the middle of june by state done for the regional television mdr by infratest dimap

Saxony

CDU: 46%
AfD: 18%
Linke: 14%
SPD: 11%
FDP: 5%
Greens: 3%
Others: 3%

Saxony-Anhalt

CDU: 45
Linke: 17
SPD: 14
AfD: 11
FDP: 6
Greens: 4
Others: 3

Thuringia

CDU: 43
Linke: 20
SPD: 12
AfD: 12
FDP: 5
Greens: 4
Others: 2

There is a newer INSA poll for Thuringia that gives a different picture

CDU: 39
Linke: 18
AfD: 18
SPD: 14
FDP: 5
Greens: 4

The AfD finishing second in some "rural" districts in Saxony is what one would expect with these numbers, but the CDU will win them huge anyway and the margin from the AfD to the others would be slim. I'm not that sure about the exact districts. There haven't been strong rural patterns in the AfD, SPD and Left vote, despite the urban-rural divide (which has been more of a CDU vs. Left/SPD/Green divide than a divide for the AfD in 2013). And there haven't been district candidates for the AfD.

 Bautzen and Görlitz are no-brainers. Meißen and Sächsische-Schweiz-Osterzgebirge could differe between well-off suburbs and the periphery, but have DSU heritage and all. Mittelsachsen seems culturally more likely for me than the Erzgebirge, but that's more gut feeling

I don't think it will be in the district which comprises mostly of Dresden north of the Elbe - which is around 80% of the districts electorate, and some suburbs. The Dresden parts are either "left-alternative (Neustadt, Hechtviertel), socially Mixed "Gründerzeit" quarters (Pieschen) ore well of (Weißer Hirsch), so probably no AfD-fortresses, the attached communities of the Bautzen district don't seem big enough to put them in second place

Of course, it is hard to extrapolate regional and local patterns with a change of the vote percentage from 7 to 18 percent for one party


10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 08, 2017, 06:32:52 pm
Given these swings then where are the LIB  going to gain seats to get up to double digits ?

BBC said once they would all be in Scotland
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: German Federal Election 2017 on: March 07, 2017, 02:16:19 pm
I did not notice until now that Lucke's ALFA was renamed to "Liberal-Conservatice Reformers".
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: One of the most beautiful Polish cities tried to kill me on: March 03, 2017, 07:43:54 am
A bit off topic, but I recently noticed that Poland has no female ski jump team, which is pretty sad considering their male team is rather good these days.
Like Austria has no relevant women's biathlon team. Stuff happens. ;-)
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: February 20, 2017, 10:07:07 am
In 2010 the outcome was a red-green minority government tolerated by Die Linke. This maybe gives a hint. Much will probably depend on weither Die Linke faction will be more of a dogmatic or a "realo" kind. Given the history of the party in NRW I would suspect the former, but I am not aware of newer developments.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you a fighter for a Judeo-Christian Europe? on: February 19, 2017, 01:09:07 pm
There is no such thing as "judeo-christian". At least since the third century or so.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do Donald Trump and Adolf Hitler have a common ancestor? on: February 09, 2017, 07:25:59 am
Of course they have. But no one, that we know about as the church records don't go back before 1500. Given the demographic expansion in Europe in the Bronze age, he or she lived maybe then, or even later. As both come from "old settled land" and I have more ties to "new settled land", I am proably closer related to both. Beware!

If you go 33 generations back (about 800 to 1000 years) your theoretical number of ancestors in this generation is higer than the number of people living on this planet, today. This does not mean, you are related to everyone who lived by then - "everyone in Europe is related to Charlemagne" is a fallacy, but the possibility to be related to someone rises exponentially with every generation you go back.

Many people don't seem to comprehend that all living creatures on earth are probably related, let alone all individuals of one species. Of course the last common ancestor of two human beings can have lived several ten thousand years ago.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Judean People's Front v. Judean Popular People's Front on: January 30, 2017, 05:00:03 am
Campaign for a free Galilea

for the profound revolutionary action, of course.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: German Elections & Politics on: November 15, 2016, 08:47:28 am
He's minister of foreign affairs. That's the reason for his approval ratings. Westerwelle was the only one to screw up in this regard. If not for that he's just "bland technocrat third-way SPD", which would not induce such approval ratings.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Wouldn't it be better if Hungary was called Magyarland or the Magyar Republic? on: November 12, 2016, 05:49:29 pm
One I'm curious about is Georgia. I assume we call it Georgia because it's patron saint is St. George, but why not then also not call England Georgia? Georgians call it Sakartvelo and the Russians call it Gruziya. Why Georgia?
Wikipedia says it stems from Persian "gurgan" which would mean "land of the wolves", and the Russian form comes from that, too.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Please stop overreacting on: November 10, 2016, 06:24:52 pm
The Democrats lost a presidential election, where they got more votes than the Republican candidate, and a shift of a mere 100.000 votes in some swing states would have been a win and now people in this forum act as if they were completely doomed for all times, if they don't either copy Trump in style, move more to the right, move more to the left, pander to the percieved anger of midwestern middle-class whites or whatever.

This is as much hyperbole as the "Republicans are doomed for all times" after 2008 and 2012 and reminds me of German overreaction to AfD results, though a vast majority of people don't vote for them.
20  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: How do you pronounce "Nietzsche?" on: November 10, 2016, 05:32:16 pm
For a German, this discussion looks funny. (Probably as funny as for the Speaker of a Slawic language the American pronounciation of the name "Kasich").

It's basically N - long i/ee - t - (mute z) - sh - weak e (a sound between a and e, which is probably meant by -uh here)

There are many variants of and related forms to this name like: Nitsche, Nietsche, Nitzsche, Nitsch, Nitschke and so on. It is derived of the Name "Nikolaus", and I would still bet some Slavic influence but I am not sure about that.
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Wouldn't it be better if Austria were called ... on: November 10, 2016, 08:28:03 am
Let's call it Roafmsob:  "remnants of a fallen monarchy southeast of Bavaria" ;-)
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How are we supposed to make predictions now? on: November 10, 2016, 06:53:59 am
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov10.html#item-3

Seems, the polls were off in both directions. And remember, that there weren't many polls in November, maybe because of the "Clinton will win, anyway" storyline.
23  General Discussion / History / Re: An authoritarian right wing government replacing an authoritarian left wing one on: November 02, 2016, 11:02:38 am
I always thougt, there was some ideological shift with the coup in Burma in 1988/89.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: FBI Reviewing Clinton emails news: LATEST - Emails from Weiner investigation on: October 28, 2016, 04:45:22 pm
Even the German television is covering this. And they just leave me confused. What is going on?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is "Americans are stupid, so Trump will win?" solid electoral analysis? on: October 19, 2016, 02:15:02 am
At least I would not put too much faith in the intelligence of the people that elected George W. Bush twice. But "will" is of course, just plain wrong.
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