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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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76  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NPR, national: Romney in the lead on: October 30, 2012, 09:00:04 am
Obama up, 50-46, in the twelve battleground states. And yes, it's kind of silly to measure them all at once, but isn't it actually even sillier to throw the other 38 states in?
(CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI)

Michigan and New Mexico probably skew that quite a bit. Why would anyone count either of them, especially New Mexico, as swing states this late in the game?

NM is pretty tiny, so it won't have much influence on the average. PA and MI, of course, will, but still it's hard to get a lead for Obama across that collection of states if he's behind in all of CO/FL/NC/OH/VA/WI. And he doesn't need much from that group...
77  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NPR, national: Romney in the lead on: October 30, 2012, 08:51:54 am
Obama up, 50-46, in the twelve battleground states. And yes, it's kind of silly to measure them all at once, but isn't it actually even sillier to throw the other 38 states in?
(CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI)
78  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: OH, Ras: Romney in the lead on: October 29, 2012, 10:35:16 pm

We've talked about the ground game.  In 2008, some of Obama's "ground game" was increasing registration.  This year, he has failed at it in PA, NV and NC.

J.J, in those three states, have Democratic registrations increased, remained the same, or fallen since the 2010 elections?
Well, in the case of NV, D registrations have increased slightly since 2008, while R registrations have dropped. The D margin has consequently moved from D+111 000 to D+130 000.

The Obama campaign might have set its sights higher than that, I suppose, but increasing their margin over the Republicans in voter registrations is hardly a failure.


http://www.nvsos.gov/index.aspx?page=85
79  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Latino Decisions: Week 11. Obama 73, Romney 21 on: October 29, 2012, 10:29:44 pm
Not a great pollster, then. 
If so, mostly because they substantially underestimated Hispanic support for the Democrats in Florida.

Well, the did the opposite in CO, so it isn't a bias issue. 
Not suggesting it is. But it might be worth remembering that their 2008 FL numbers look like a lot of pollsters' 2012 FL numbers for Hispanics. There's precedent, in other words, for pollsters underestimating how Obama would do with Florida Hispanics.
80  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Latino Decisions: Week 11. Obama 73, Romney 21 on: October 29, 2012, 10:15:17 pm
Not a great pollster, then. 
If so, mostly because they substantially underestimated Hispanic support for the Democrats in Florida.
81  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Politico/GWU Battleground Poll: Obama 49- Romney 48 on: October 29, 2012, 12:01:16 pm
Key graf:

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."

Doesn't this sound rather like a likely voter model? Which they've already applied in generating the topline results?

Your last point is an interesting and valid one. The same thought occurred to me, but for me to pose it, would do nothing for Mittmomentum, so I repressed the thought. But in my defense, I just knew you would show up to close this particular "donut hole."  Thanks!
Glad to be of service.
82  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Politico/GWU Battleground Poll: Obama 49- Romney 48 on: October 29, 2012, 11:44:30 am
Key graf:

UPDATE: Politico reports on the poll's top-line: Obama 49, Romney 48 percent. But it is the noteworthy last paragraph from Goeas's memo that we're referring to: "In sum, this data indicates this election remains very close on the surface, but the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney. These factors come into play with our “vote election model” – which takes into account variables like vote intensity, voters who say they are definite in their vote, and demographics like age and education. In that snapshot of today’s vote model, Mitt Romney leads Barack Obama by five-points – 52% to 47%. While that gap can certainly be closed by the ground game of the Democrats, reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory."

Doesn't this sound rather like a likely voter model? Which they've already applied in generating the topline results?
83  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Politico/GWU Battleground Poll: Obama 49- Romney 48 on: October 29, 2012, 11:26:08 am
Great number for Mitt from a top notch firm! Looks like Obama is mired at 47% 49% haha!
FTFY
84  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 28, 2012, 10:57:31 pm
Is lying too strong a word? I think the methodologies are just too varied and are having a hard time keeping up with changes.
Well, if someone thinks that a pollster is oversampling Democrats, and that pollster doesn't weight for party ID, then aren't they basically saying that the pollster is using a different method from the one the pollster claims to use?
85  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 28, 2012, 05:31:30 pm
It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.

Yaaaay!!! Wink
I'd add that, if you're going to accuse almost all the pollsters in the country of lying about their methodology, then why even bother talking about any of the numbers they produce?
86  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 28, 2012, 04:54:26 pm
Lol, if romney is +16 with independents you're going to need D+10> to win.
It's cute that Republicans think that they can keep Romney's current margin with independents while increasing the share of the electorate that identify as Republicans.
87  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis: Virginia tied on: October 27, 2012, 03:46:49 pm
Bad poll for Romney.

A tie in Gravis is basically a 2-3 point lead for Obama due to their house effect.
I'd like to be able to say this, but I think they're more incompetent than R-leaning, though of course there's no reason they can't be both.

Perhaps.

I am just going by Silver's assessment on Gravis.
Oh, I do think on average they lean R. But where Rasmussen leans R because of methodological choices he's made, and is thus pretty reliably a little bit to the right on almost every poll he does, Gravis just seems to be bad at their job. Their average poll is a little to the right of the polling average, but sometimes they're drastically to the right, like when they had Smith beating Casey by 19 points in PA-Sen, and sometimes they're just a little D-friendly compared to the average, as with that Iowa poll with Obama up 4 (a couple of points better than the polling average).
If the only information I had about a race was that Gravis showed it tied, I'd assume that Obama was ahead by a couple of points -- unless he was ahead by 20, or behind by 4.
88  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Gravis: Virginia tied on: October 27, 2012, 03:35:06 pm
Bad poll for Romney.

A tie in Gravis is basically a 2-3 point lead for Obama due to their house effect.
I'd like to be able to say this, but I think they're more incompetent than R-leaning, though of course there's no reason they can't be both.
89  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 27, 2012, 12:48:37 pm
IBD/TIPP

Obama-46.6
Romney-44.5

wit D+7 and Romney leading independents by 11
As you know, of course, if Democrats were a smaller share of the sample, Romney wouldn't be doing so well with independents.
90  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 27, 2012, 12:46:39 pm
RAND Poll

Obama- 50.93%(+.37)

Romney- 44.58%(-.06)

Obama is at his highest total yet, forget Rasmussen.

lol no. Ras was right in 2004 and 2008.

Rasmussen was massively off in 2010

but very good in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
They were hardly spectacular in 2008, missing the result in the seven most-polled states in the final week by around 2.5%, a slightly larger error than ARG or Zogby:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IKhPZc5iEus/SfCoMmJLh7I/AAAAAAAAAEk/Ea5AlJ78Hho/S220/Wall+Street+Chart.jpg
91  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 26, 2012, 11:56:38 am
So are those ABC tracking numbers the reason Mitt is undergoing a mini-collapse on Intrade at the moment?

It is likely the ARG Ohio poll.
Or just the unwinding of the unwarranted rise in Romney's Intrade numbers a few days ago. The other betting markets never jumped on that particular bandwagon, so it's only natural that Intrade would revert to the mean at some point.
92  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 26, 2012, 11:31:13 am
Romney leads by 20 among Indies.

I don't like this ...

A lot of them are really the tea party people that ID as "Independant" that's why Romney is leading with them everywhere but still losing states.

^^^^ This. Hence, ignore the Umengites who post ROMNEY WINNING INDIES BY A MILLION on every poll.

... and who simultaneously complain that there aren't enough Republicans in those same polls, pretending that there's no connection between the two phenomena.
93  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Daily Beast: Romney's Surge on: October 25, 2012, 10:03:19 pm
Quote
"With just two weeks to go until Election Day, the popular vote is, as everyone knows, effectively a dead heat. The Real Clear Politics average has Romney enjoying a 0.9-point advantage. And while the latest Rasmussen numbers give Romney a 4-point edge and he is ahead 5 in Gallup, there are other polls that have Obama leading. In the latest IBD/TIPP poll, for instance, the president is up by 2.

But there are two other crucial indicators that show momentum for Mitt. The first is the trend in the Electoral College—and one state in particular.

 At this point, many of the states in the Real Clear Politics “toss ups” category appear likely to go one way or the other. Florida and Virginia will probably go for Romney, while Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will most likely be won by the president.

And so, as we’ve argued before, that leaves Ohio as the state that will likely decide the election. The polls from Ohio currently show a dead heat, but they also show momentum for Romney. Just two weeks ago, Obama was up 10 points in the state. Today, that margin has closed to 3 in the latest SurveyUSA poll. Meanwhile, the latest Suffolk (PDF) poll has Ohio tied (at 47) and Rasmussen also has a tie (at 48). All of this is clearly good news for Mitt.

What’s more, there were other pieces of good news for Romney hidden in the aftermath of the third debate. In the CNN/ORC snap poll, which asked voters whether Romney could handle being commander-in-chief, 60 percent answered in the affirmative as compared to 38 percent against. Further, the two candidates were tied on likability—a big change from the 20-point lead the president held in this area a couple of months ago. While Obama won the debate on substance, it may not have mattered because Romney was still competent, for the most part presidential, and apparently far more likable than he once was.

Taken together, Romney’s improving image and the changing polls in Ohio do not paint a good picture for Obama. Time is running out for the president to counter Mitt’s surge. It’s still a tie, but things seem to be trending Romney’s way.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/25/romney-s-surge.html

Gotta love this: "Obama was up 10 in Ohio two weeks ago" -- the last poll with Obama up 10 in OH that I can find was Q-Pac 9/18-24.

" Today, that margin has closed to 3 in the latest SurveyUSA poll. Meanwhile, the latest Suffolk (PDF) poll has Ohio tied (at 47) and Rasmussen also has a tie (at 48)."

Two weeks ago, Obama was up in SUSA -- by the same three points he's up by today. He was up by only one point the week before. Suffolk doesn't seem to have done another OH poll since the conventions, and Rasmussen was Obama +1 in the three previous October Ohio polls they've done. So the polls Douglas Schoen cites in this article show precisely zero shift towards Romney in Ohio.
Oh, and Douglas Schoen?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Schoen

94  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: New NBC Marist polls out 6:30 for NV and CO on: October 25, 2012, 02:40:09 pm
"There's no way the electorate in Colorado will be D+x in this election!!!"
(Let x= whatever NBC/Marist finds it to be).

Thought I'd get that out of the way.
95  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Grove Insight/PNA (D): Obama leads in FL and CO in brand-new polls on: October 25, 2012, 02:35:15 pm

No, what Begala said was just personal conjecture. The Obama campaign is still spending money and running ads there and still has field offices and staff. They have not conceded it. And please find better sources than the Washington Examiner next time.

And Begala retracted those remarks, emphasizing that he had spoken earlier without having spoken directly to the Obama campaign, and that he was glad to see that the campaign was still contesting NC:

http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/paul_begala_walks_back_comment_about_obama_writing_off_nc
96  Election Archive / 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: National Tracking Poll Thread on: October 25, 2012, 09:21:39 am
Rasmussen LV:

Romney:  50, +1

Obama:  47, +1
Weren't they 50-46 yesterday?
97  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Despite being outspent, Obama and his allies are still airing more ads on: October 24, 2012, 10:13:09 pm
Quote
President Obama and his allies have aired more ads in battleground states this month than Mitt Romney and his supporters, despite being outspent by the Republican nominee and GOP groups, according to a study released Wednesday.

The Obama campaign and its supporters spent $77 million on 112,730 advertisements from Oct. 1 to Oct. 21, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks and analyzes political ad spending. Romney and his allies, by contrast, spent more money — $87 million — on 15,000 fewer spots than their opponents.

The study also confirmed that 2012 has already shattered previous records for presidential ad spending, with 915,000 ads aired during the general election campaign through Sunday — a 44.5 percent increase compared with the same period four years ago.

The findings suggest that Obama and the Democrats may be able to weather a storm of Republican advertising purchases aimed at knocking the incumbent off balance in the final weeks of the election. One Republican media buyer calculates that GOP groups are outspending Democrats in this week by nearly 2 to 1.

But Obama has a key advantage over Romney by raising the bulk of his money through his campaign committee, which qualifies for discounted ad rates under federal election laws. That can allow Obama to pay much less for the same ads compared with conservative super PACs and other outside groups, which don’t qualify for such rates.

Romney has less money under his direct control because he relies more heavily on wealthy donors who give to the Republican Party and on ad spending by well-funded independent groups. Unlike Obama, Romney also bought relatively little ad time in advance — which is cheaper — and has tended to choose more expensive ad spots with guaranteed placements.

“There was a lot of talk that Romney and his allies were hoarding resources for a major ad push in the closing moments of the campaign,” Michael Franz, co-director of the project, said in a statement. “We just haven’t seen that to date on local broadcast. And time is running out.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/10/24/obama-maintains-ad-advantage-despite-being-outspent/?wprss=rss_campaigns

You see, this is why America needs a president like Mitt Romney, who can use his business acumen to make a more efficient use of public resources.
98  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: My honest take on state of race less than two weeks out on: October 24, 2012, 06:48:24 pm
I think anyone who's being honest can see that it's a close race right now. If the state-by-state polls are accurate, Obama would win an election held today, though possibly not the popular vote. The polls could obviously swing a bit either way, and either give Romney the election, or give Obama a bigger victory.
Both campaigns are obviously talking a good game about how they're sure they're going to win -- but all campaigns do that. It's not as though the McCain campaign in 2008 said, "let's face it, we're going to lose," even though by October they were probably pretty sure they were going to lose.
But Barack and Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and Obama for America have, between them, sent me twenty-one emails asking for money since Oct. 15. I don't think they're taking anything for granted, any more than the Romney people are.
99  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: 2012 Intrade rankings on: October 24, 2012, 06:35:45 pm
Even on the market on who wins the presidency, we're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 000 swinging the market yesterday. Which would be a staggering amount of money for me to bet, but is obviously not that much in the grand scheme of things. And, as Nate Silver points out, all the other betting markets have Obama significantly higher (and more stable) than Intrade did yesterday, which should be an opportunity for arbitraging if the markets are at all liquid.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus


There was also the belief that Romney was undervalued on Intrade.  He was around 37% prior to the third debate.  
If so, he remains significantly more undervalued on all the other betting markets out there, many of which are larger and more sophisticated than Intrade. Why, then, has Romney's price not risen so much on those other markets? If the markets are operating efficiently, then Romney's price should be basically the same on each market.
100  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: 2012 Intrade rankings on: October 24, 2012, 05:24:32 pm
Even on the market on who wins the presidency, we're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 000 swinging the market yesterday. Which would be a staggering amount of money for me to bet, but is obviously not that much in the grand scheme of things. And, as Nate Silver points out, all the other betting markets have Obama significantly higher (and more stable) than Intrade did yesterday, which should be an opportunity for arbitraging if the markets are at all liquid.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus
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