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February 12, 2016, 12:42:34 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: OK PrimD: SoonerPoll: Clinton leads, lots undecided pre-NH on: February 11, 2016, 11:58:21 pm
Hey Bushie, who pays for your Indian health care if not the government? Why do you deserve free health care but no one else?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK local by-elections, 2016 on: February 11, 2016, 10:16:09 pm
CORBYNMENTUM!
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: prov by-elxn in Whitby-Oshawa: Feb. 11) on: February 11, 2016, 10:15:45 pm
And judging from the Elections Ontario site, looks like they *really* streamlined the W-O polling map--only 76 polls altogether?!?

Yeah, I checked the map, there are far fewer polling divisions. They did the same thing in BC, which is why I didn't make any maps, because I couldn't find the polling divisions in time.

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: prov by-elxn in Whitby-Oshawa: Feb. 11) on: February 11, 2016, 02:00:08 pm
My profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2016/02/whitby-oshawa-by-election-today.html
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: When did you decide to support your current favorite candidate? on: February 11, 2016, 10:59:52 am
I supported Clinton until Sanders announced he was running. I've been a fan Sanders since I first heard about him.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Bernie Sanders vs. BushOklahoma on: February 11, 2016, 09:23:13 am
But don't you know Red, NOBODY WILL VOTE FOR A SOCIALIST Tongue
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: by-election in Netsilik, NU: Feb. 8) on: February 09, 2016, 09:43:32 am
The Nunavut riding of Netsilik went to the polls last night in a by-election to replace Jeannie Ugyuk, who resigned following a motion of no confidence in her. The riding consists of the two hamlets of Taloyoak and and Kuugaaruk at the base of the Boothia Peninsula in the central part of the territory.

Results:
Emilino Qirngnuq: 137 (31%) - elected
Tars Angutingunirk: 116 (26%)
John Ningark: 65 (15%)
Wesley Totalik Sr: 64 (15%)
Joseph Quqqiaq: 57 (13%)

Qirngnuq won Kugaaruk while Totalik won Taloyoak (he only received 4 votes in Kugaaruk).

Qingnuq if a former manager of the Kugaaruk co-op.

Turnout was 69% in Kugaaruk and 51% in Taloyoak, which is actually the larger community but had fewer voters.

For the record, both communities went overwhelmingly Tory in the 2011 federal election, but went Liberal as recently as 2006.



8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Should the standards for substitute teachers be higher? on: February 07, 2016, 09:05:50 pm
Yes. I've heard that Oklahoma in particular has pretty low standards.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: by-election in Netsilik, NU: Feb. 8) on: February 05, 2016, 11:16:19 pm
Maybe so, but it's good politics for the very unpopular OLP. I suspect this will help the OLP more than it brings down Trdueau's reputation.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Where will the parties be under the Millennials? on: February 03, 2016, 03:41:23 pm
Once the Millennials are a majority/plurality of Congress (and the electorate), where do you think the parties will be on the ideological spectrum?

I think.....

Dems: Social-democrats, similar to the Labour Party in the UK and Liberals in Canada

GOP: Moderate Libertarians (focus on economics/foreign policy and not on religion/morals)

Basically it'll be a socially liberal country with a focus on taxes and the size of government programs.

The Liberals are not social democratic. Jesus Christ...
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: International gender voting patterns on: February 03, 2016, 09:47:32 am
In Canada, men are more likely to be Conservative than women, and women are more likely to vote Liberal. For the NDP, it depends on how popular they are; their base is usually 50-50, but when they gain in the polls, it usually comes more from women.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: prov. by-elections in BC: Feb. 2) on: February 03, 2016, 08:07:36 am
Excellent news!
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: prov. by-elections in BC: Feb. 2) on: February 02, 2016, 10:59:41 am
Once again, the candidate who gets the key endorsement (or in this case a perceived endorsement) wins:

Sault Ste. Marie, Ward 2:

Sandra Hollingsworth: 767 (27%) - elected
Luke Dufour: 636 (22%)
Susan Milne: 427 (15%)
Jody Curran: 382 (13%)
Les Weeks: 336 (12%)
John Duke: 148 (5%)
David Poluck: 116 (4%)
Ron Schinners: 30 (1%)
Andy Martens: 14 (<1%)

Turnout: 30%

Barrie, Ward 7

Andrew Prince: 362 (23%) - elected
Craig Ripley: 307 (19%)
Gary Harvey: 222 (14%)
Jane Dewar: 196 (12%)
Jim Hosick: 122 (8%)
Mike Montague: 109 (7%)
Doug Jure: 108 (7%)
Randy H. Starr: 107 (7%)
5 Other candidates: 74 (5%)

Turnout: 18%



14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: SOO Ward 2 & Barrie Ward 7 (ON) Feb. 1) on: February 01, 2016, 11:41:35 am
> Barrie, Ward 7
- Vacated when John Brassard was elected to the House of Commons for the Conservatives
- Barrie has 10 wards, each represented by a single councillor
- There are 13 candidates running (13 on the ballot, one dropped out).
- Candidates include former councillor Andrew Prince, Barrie Colts play by play announcer Craig Ripley, Libertarian perennial candidate Darren Roskam and perennial independent candidate Ram Faerber (ran in the federal election; received 188 votes)
- Ward 7 covers the southwest corner of the city, consisting of some brand new subdivisions, and the older community of Holly. (Map: http://www.barrie.ca/City%20Hall/election/Documents/Barrie%202014%20Ward%20Structure%20Map.pdf)
- Politically the ward normally backs the Tories. In the 2014 provincial election it appears to have gone Liberal though, as did the riding of Barrie. Federally, it has gone Tory since 2004. Before that, there wasn't very many people living in the ward (only 3 polls, two of which went Liberal in 2000).
- 2014 results:
*John Brassard: 1,779 (elected)
*Lincoln Bayda: 252
*Brandon Vieira: 208
*Andrew Barranger: 85
*Richard Crocitto: 40
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: SOO Ward 2 & Barrie Ward 7 (ON) Feb. 1) on: February 01, 2016, 11:14:34 am
Two municipal by-elections today in Ontario.

> Sault Ste. Marie, Ward 2
- Vacated when Terry Sheehan was elected to the House of Commons for the Liberals
- Sault Ste. Marie has 6 wards, each represented by two councillors. Ward 2's  lone sitting councillor is Susan Myers.
- There are 9 candidates running. One of them, Sandra Hollingsworth (a former banking strategist) has been perceived as being endorsed by Myers (causing a minor controversy). Another candidate is Jody Curran who is a past councillor for the ward and is a reporter for the Sault Star. A third candidate is John Duke, who ran in 2014, finishing third.
- Ward 2 covers the eastern half of the downtown (map: http://www.saultstemarie.ca/Cityweb/media/City-Clerk/WardBoundariesMap.pdf)
- Politically, the ward (and indeed much of eastern Sault Ste. Marie) has been a weak area for the NDP. Provincially it votes Liberal. Federally it went Tory in 2011 and maybe also in 2008.
- 2014 results:
* Terry Sheehan: 3,178 (elected)
* Susan Myers: 2,481 (elected)
* John Duke: 1,450
* Michael Selvers: 340

16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Granby (QC) District 6: Jan. 31) on: February 01, 2016, 10:26:24 am
District 6 of Granby btw covers the western part of the downtown.  Map: http://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/documents/pdf/municipal/cep-2013/47017-E-F01.pdf

2013 results:
Serges Ruel: 648 (29.89%)
Alain Menard: 626 (28.87%)
Annie Premont: 515 (23.75%)
Lise Des greniers: 379 (17.48%)

The districts supports the CAQ provincially. Even in 2008 when the ADQ just barely won the riding, District 6 voted for them.

Federally, Granby is in the riding of Shefford which went Liberal in 2015. In 2011, District 6 voted NDP. Before that the district backed the BQ, even in 2000 when the riding went Liberal. In 1997, the PCs won the district and the riding as a whole.



17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who won the main Fox debate? on: January 30, 2016, 12:57:32 pm
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Pickering (ON) Ward 1: Jan. 25) on: January 25, 2016, 11:03:45 pm
The race in Pickering turned out to be a bit of a clusterf**k:

Former councillor Maurice Brenner won with just 21.6% of the vote, defeating realtor Lisa Robinson by just 50 votes:

Maurice Brenner: 712 (21.6%)
Lisa Robinson: 662 (20.0%)
Chris van der Vliet: 472 (14.3%)
Gary Hugh Strange: 462 (14.0%)
Lisa McFarland: 316 (9.6%)
Peter Rodrigues: 275 (8.3%)
6 other candidates: 404 (12.2%)

Results: http://www.pickering.ca/en/cityhall/2016UnofficialWard1By-ElectionResults.asp
So now Pickering will have an all male city council.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Pickering (ON) Ward 1: Jan. 25) on: January 25, 2016, 10:52:57 pm
Forgot about that by-election for the Toronto District School Board, filling the vacancy that was created when Liberal Shaun Chen was elected to the House of Commons for the riding of Scarborough North.

NDPer Neethan Shan won in a landslide, defeating 19 candidates:

Neethan Shan, 4197 (53.6%)
Jack Wang 1258 (16.1%)

Results: http://election.toronto.ca/epr2014/eprDetail.do?121#1453780182280

The boundaries of the district are basically the old Scarborough-Rouge River riding, where Shan has run for the NDP in the past. Turnout was 7826, which is probably around 9%.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Pickering (ON) Ward 1: Jan. 25) on: January 25, 2016, 07:55:52 pm
The whole city of Pickering has just three city councillors?

No, each ward has a city and regional councillor. Each regional councillor also sits on city council, so there is a total of 6 councillors, plus the mayor.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: FOX NH/IA Dem Polls: Sanders up 22 in NH, Clinton up 6 in IA on: January 25, 2016, 06:42:29 pm
JUNK POLL!
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Snow day! on: January 25, 2016, 01:40:14 pm
"Snow days" are rare here, as the whole city doesn't shut down when there is a couple inches of snow :p

Seriously though, 2 feet of snow would cause some delays, but not a state of emergency here.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Pickering (ON) Ward 1: Jan. 25) on: January 25, 2016, 10:26:20 am
Pickering's Ward 1 by-election is today.

Pickering is the city immediately east of Toronto. The city has three wards, each represented by a city and a (Durham) regional councillor. Ward 1 is located in the southwest corner of the city, bordering Toronto. It normally votes Liberal provincially and federally, but went Conservative in the 2011 federal election.

The ward was represented on city and regional council by Jennifer O'Connell until she was elected to parliament (for the Liberals) in last October's federal election in the riding of Pickering-Uxbridge. She represented Ward 1 from 2006 to 2015. In the 2014 municipal election, she was easily re-elected with 72% of the vote against four other candidates.  The ward's city councillor, Kevin Ashe has taken over her spot on regional council as well, so the vacancy will be for the city council position.

Past election results:
2014: O'Connell def. Nick Tsetsakos 72% to 9% and three other candidates
2010: O'Connell def. regional councillor Bonnie Littley 55% to 45%
2006: O'Connell def. Kevin Ashe 45% to 43% for city council; Littley def. Maurice Brenner for regional council.

There are 12 candidates running, including former councillors Maurice Brenner and Peter Rodrigues

24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio for Vice President. on: January 24, 2016, 08:38:13 pm
Not after these gay rumours
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Pickering (ON) Ward 1: Jan. 25) on: January 24, 2016, 02:15:35 pm
Interestingly, that district has been held by Liberals recently

Recent results:

2012: future Liberal MP Darren Fisher def. NDP MLA Jerry Pye 69%-31%
2009 by-election: Darren Fisher wins
2008: future Liberal MLA Andrew Younger acclaimed
2004: Younger def. councillor Brian Warshick 52%-44%
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