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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: June 22, 2017, 05:46:35 pm
Could QS become a serious competitor? That would be great.

They will do as they always do, and gain one more seat (Hochelaga-Maisonneuve to be exact). At this rate, they will get a majority government in ~250 years.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: June 22, 2017, 01:40:38 pm
No surprise. The question is if he stays on after the government is voted out.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Nanaimo, BC mun. council: July 8) on: June 21, 2017, 04:06:36 pm
Campeau won the seat by just 3 points last time, it is an easy NDP pick up.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Nanaimo, BC mun. council: July 8) on: June 20, 2017, 01:56:34 pm
I did a post mortem analysis of the Point Douglas by-election, if anyone is interested: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/06/point-doulgas-by-election-post-mortem.html
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Nanaimo, BC mun. council: July 8) on: June 20, 2017, 07:54:55 am
Hébert: Couillard wants Lebel to run for him, status TBD. By-election will be a 4-way race, presumably around the time Dippers choose a new leader.

Lebel would have a hard time winning for the PLQ in Lac-Saint-Jean, and he can't run in Roberval, as that's Couillard's seat. He'd be given a safe seat somewhere.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Nanaimo, BC mun. council: July 8) on: June 19, 2017, 09:18:39 am
The Conservative federal MP, Denis Lebel, will retire this summer.  By-election to come in Lac-Saint-Jean.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201706/18/01-5108772-denis-lebel-tire-sa-reverence.php
With the NDP way down in Quebec, liberals may have a chance for a pickup.

Tough call at this point. It's very pro-sovereignty area of the province, but it is also a riding that is not that committed to voting for pro-sovereignty parties.

- The Liberals have not won it since 1980, but a lot of ridings in Quebec had the distinction before 2015. Provincially, they hold the western half of the riding (Roberval), but that's only because it's the Premier's seat.
- This isn't exactly a traditional Conservative seat. They did do well in 2006, which helped them pick the seat up in a by-election in 2007. Provincially though, the CAQ/ADQ has no history in this part of Quebec.
- This could've been an NDP target once upon a time. The 2015 redistribution added Alma to the district, which was swept by the NDP in 2011 (and again in 2015!).
- The eastern half of this riding has been represented by the PQ since 1976.


7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Nanaimo, BC mun. council: July 8) on: June 18, 2017, 11:22:30 am
Also, it looks like there is more of a correlation with the 2015 federal election result than the 2016 provincial election. The NDP's best areas were North Point Douglas and Lord Selkirk Park, just like in the federal election. Meanwhile, their best poll from 2016 went Liberal!
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Nanaimo, BC mun. council: July 8) on: June 18, 2017, 10:23:22 am

Looks like the Filipino areas voted Liberal, while the Aboriginal areas voted NDP. No surprise, really.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Nanaimo, BC mun. council: July 8) on: June 16, 2017, 08:29:43 am
What is the Nanaimo municipal council election for?  We're well more than half way through the 4 year mandate of councils, so I understand they don't have to hold a by-election.

City council. Cllr Wendy Pratt resigned in April in connection to some sort of scandal involving the city council.

We're more than a year away from the next municipal elections, so I fully support them having a by-election.

There are 13 candidates running.  Profiles: https://www.ournanaimo.com/index.php/candidate-bios/

10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: June 14, 2017, 03:32:23 pm
This is all so stupid a ridiculous. Why don't all the regular pundits realize this? I'd rather some sort of grand coalition with Clark as Premier than to head to the polls again because Andrew Coyne says so.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Closest US Ally on: June 13, 2017, 10:53:34 pm
We are your most important trade partner and your next door neighbour. We are definitely your closest ally.

I always cringe when the media speaks of the US/UK "special relationship". I will grant that the UK is your most important ally, but certainly not your closest.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Point Douglas, MB prov.: June 13) on: June 13, 2017, 10:40:58 pm
With all polls reporting:

NDP: 44.3% (-13.5)
Lib: 29.1% (+9.6)
PC: 16.2% (-0.3)
MP: 5.2%
Grn: 4.2% (-0.8)
Comm: 0.8% (-0.3)

Turnout: 32.3% (-10.2)

2 party avg. swing: 11.5% NDP to Liberal
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Point Douglas, MB prov.: June 13) on: June 13, 2017, 10:30:25 pm
Well, it will make for a more interesting map.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Point Douglas, MB prov.: June 13) on: June 13, 2017, 08:51:53 pm
Looks like they probably won't break 50% Sad Not a good result.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Point Douglas, MB prov.: June 13) on: June 13, 2017, 08:36:09 pm
Even with just a few polls in, it's obvious the NDP has won it. Looking at a worse result than in 2016 though, but still too early to determine.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Point Douglas, MB prov.: June 13) on: June 13, 2017, 03:49:04 pm
Is this the kind of thing people would be interested in me doing more of in the future?

17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Point Douglas, MB prov.: June 13) on: June 13, 2017, 02:49:49 pm
So I did get some time today to do a write up on my blog Smiley

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2017/06/point-douglas-by-election-preview.html
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Point Douglas, MB prov.: June 13) on: June 13, 2017, 08:21:09 am
I have none.  What is the Poe Lock?



(hey, I have personal ethnic licence ;-) )

As for the Soo, the far west is rural-dominated, right?

You guys are dating yourselves with these All in the Family references!

Anyways, geographically the far west is 'dominated' by a lot of farms, but I'd imagine most of the population is urban.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017 on: June 12, 2017, 05:00:53 pm
http://conservative.ca/leadership/en/results

Here is an excellent link from the Conservative Party of Canada for the leadership voting.

You can check the national vote, each province, each constituency, each ballot.

Gee, thanks. This exact link was posted the day of their election.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Point Douglas, MB prov.: June 13) on: June 12, 2017, 04:59:36 pm
further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  Cheesy (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.

Thanks.

I liked my joke about the Soo. I'm sure nobody has ever come up with that before!  Cheesy

oh wow, I hadn't even noticed!
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec redistricting, 2015 on: June 12, 2017, 03:42:15 pm
So, critics panned the decision to rename a federal riding after the Rocket, so now they're going to try and do it provincially? Looking forward to the new riding of "Céline-Dion" (née L'Assomption) as well.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Nova Scotia Elections (Past) on: June 12, 2017, 03:37:38 pm
Riding maps and results going back to 1967 available here: http://election-atlas.ca/ns/
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Point Douglas, MB prov.: June 13) on: June 12, 2017, 03:34:50 pm
further evidence that most of the vote switching in the Soo is anti-NDP. Reliably NDP west end went NDP, while the normally Liberal east end went Tory. 

Interestingly, the far west end (Ward 6) went PC. That's the ward that both the NDP and PC candidate represented on council.

Soo what?  Cheesy (sorry)

Any thoughts aboot the Point Douglas by-election?

I may or may not do a write up on it tomorrow.  But, it should be an easy NDP hold. Potentially a future Liberal target in the distant future, but they're too much in disarray on the provincial level.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Provincial Redistribution, 2017 on: June 12, 2017, 03:28:50 pm
Ok, the proposed Hudson Bay District would not be as lobsided as I thought, but still overwhelmingly NDP. The quick & dirty results from the last election would be:

NDP: 68.4%
Lib: 18.4%
PC: 9.3%
Grn: 4.0%

With a total turnout of just 4372 (35.4%), and that's just of registered voters.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Provincial Redistribution, 2017 on: June 12, 2017, 02:46:46 pm
The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission in Ontario was announced on May 8.  They are required to issue their report by August 1, and the government must introduce legislation by October 30.

Here are some sample maps prepared by the Commission.

My guess is they go with map 1. All the others have significant draw backs.

My main complaint with all of them is that they put in some White communities (Red Lake, Pickle Lake, etc) into the new district. Also, with the big Hudson Bay district, you have no air links between the east half and the west half. That's the advantage of the current map.

The second and third maps are dumb because they make Timmins its own electoral district (making it the least populous in the province in map #2, and still laughably undersized in map #3). Map #4 creates for a ridiculously underpopulated James Bay riding.

Anyways, this proposal would be great for the NDP, as they're likely to get 80-90% in this new district(s), and will still probably win Kenora-Rainy River and whatever riding Timmins finds itself in (Timmins-Kapuskasing?).

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