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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: July 28, 2015, 08:08:57 am
Sad news: Former NDPer Hunter Tootoo will be seeking the Liberal nomination in Nunavut.
2  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: So, let's take a breath here and I'll try to explain about what's going on. on: July 27, 2015, 12:01:59 pm
Meanwhile, it appears your mods have decided to lock the suicide thread hoping to hide that nasty incident pretending that nothing happened.

Or maybe it had something to do with the second half of the thread being an unrelated flamewar between Antonio and bgwah?

Anyway if your theory were actually true the thread would have been deleted, not locked.

How very convenient Tongue

I must apologize though, I had forgotten you resigned as a mod, meaning the discussion is a moot point anyways.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2015 on: July 27, 2015, 06:53:19 am
The Ontario Liberals won last year with 39% of the vote. Polls now show them as low as 24%... That's a huge drop

A lot of that 15% drop still did not like the Liberals, I'd imagine.
4  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: So, let's take a breath here and I'll try to explain about what's going on. on: July 26, 2015, 09:56:18 pm
Meanwhile, it appears your mods have decided to lock the suicide thread hoping to hide that nasty incident pretending that nothing happened.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Infraction Point System Poll on: July 26, 2015, 08:40:42 pm
I think it's a decent method of dealing with offenders.  It's not perfect, but no system is flawless.  It can be subjective in its administering, but sometimes it has to be to determine exactly what category a particular offense falls into.  I agree it has gotten a lot better post-Inks, but again no matter what is done, Dave cannot make everyone happy.  There will always be dissenters no matter what he does.  If there is a better system out there, then I'm all for trying it out, but if the consensus is to keep the point system, I'd be okay with that, too.  I really don't have a strong opinion one way or the other.  I might lean toward keeping it, but I'm not adamant about it.

Says the guy whose idea it was.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: July 26, 2015, 08:20:09 pm
Selling more memberships doesn't mean you're going to win. Just because you sold someone a membership doesn't mean that person is going to vote for you.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2015 on: July 26, 2015, 04:31:35 pm
The Liberals were still unpopular in the general election. Not as unpopular as now, but still weren't popular. Of course, the Tories were hated just as much, and the NDP was no better for a lot of people.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: July 26, 2015, 04:29:29 pm
Just found out. RIP.

One of the Red Tories that jumped to the NDP after the merger.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2015 on: July 26, 2015, 12:02:35 pm
In the leadership race, didn't Wynne put extra effort into wooing Central Ontario?  Maybe they were returning the favour (to a degree)

Wynne did do well in some of Central Ontario:

10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: July 24, 2015, 01:31:39 pm
The political journalists in this town are full of sh[inks]
11  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Leip, one of your mods is encouraging people to kill themselves. on: July 24, 2015, 09:11:38 am
So in other words, Joe got another slap on the wrist and will remain a mod. Just as expected. 

I don't know the full background on any past issues with Joe, but I'm personally reluctant to make this a "straw that broke the camel's back" issue.  It's hard to concisely explain how (reasonably) upset most of us are with Tweed's conduct.  The content is indefensible but the anger is understandable.  That said, this isn't a "slap on the wrist."  Dave's been clear that this was not OK, and personally speaking, if similar behavior repeats I'll be on the warpath.

It'll be a "slap on the wrist" if he is still a moderator.

If you'd like to PM me background (other than the Rochambeau incident and this) of your objections, I will broach this on the Mod Forum.  Lacking any background information, there's not much I can do.  I don't think people feel that this post alone justifies demodding.  Either way, I wouldn't exactly call what seems to me like an implied ultimatum to be a "slap on the wrist."

What is the "implied ultimatum". Is it "Joe can you please not threaten people again. OR ELSE we might possibly maybe consider demodding you in the future." Sounds like a slap on the wrist to me.
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: Mideast Assembly Thread on: July 24, 2015, 08:59:07 am
I would like to re-nominate Harry S Truman for the speakership.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Swearing in of New Officeholders on: July 24, 2015, 08:56:58 am

I, EarlAW, do solemnly affirm that I will faithfully execute the office of Mideast Representative and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the Mideast Region, so help me Dave.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: July 24, 2015, 08:55:57 am
RIP Canadian Senate. FF.
15  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Leip, one of your mods is encouraging people to kill themselves. on: July 23, 2015, 02:58:57 pm
So in other words, Joe got another slap on the wrist and will remain a mod. Just as expected. 

I don't know the full background on any past issues with Joe, but I'm personally reluctant to make this a "straw that broke the camel's back" issue.  It's hard to concisely explain how (reasonably) upset most of us are with Tweed's conduct.  The content is indefensible but the anger is understandable.  That said, this isn't a "slap on the wrist."  Dave's been clear that this was not OK, and personally speaking, if similar behavior repeats I'll be on the warpath.

It'll be a "slap on the wrist" if he is still a moderator.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Lewis Trondheim/minionofmidas on: July 23, 2015, 06:59:23 am
One of the greatest.
17  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Leip, one of your mods is encouraging people to kill themselves. on: July 23, 2015, 06:53:52 am
So in other words, Joe got another slap on the wrist and will remain a mod. Just as expected. 
18  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Atlas Forum Feedback on: July 23, 2015, 06:50:41 am
Did we even need a poll? The obvious choices are leading in every match up.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: July 23, 2015, 06:36:50 am
It makes sense that the NDP would be leading in Guelph if they're going to form government. I'd expect a couple more seats in that area too (Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford)
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2015 on: July 23, 2015, 06:34:59 am
And the ONDP (w/the same candidate as in 2011) fell a titch in share, too.

For whatever reason, Kathleen Wynne actually overachieved in a lot of Central Ontario Heartland seats; maybe she came across as a bit of a Sensible Red Tory in Liberal clothing...


I'm still trying to figure out what happened in Central Ontario. I know the Liberals targeted the outer GTA heavily (to much success), but I'm not sure why they saw such large gains in some Central Ontario seats.
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Canadian Federal Election on: July 22, 2015, 11:33:07 am
hahaha still no Liberal votes
22  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Montreal v Toronto on: July 22, 2015, 11:31:36 am
Montreal (normal)
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: July 21, 2015, 10:26:05 pm
Respectfully, that's complete conjecture. In the absence of data indicating what motivated people to vote a given way (exit polls, demographic break downs augmented by qualitative surveys, even anecdotal evidence with some corroboration) it's reasonable to assume that the standard factors affecting vote patterns were at play: economic trends, candidate profile, campaign efficiency, historical voting trends.

Meanwhile, there's every reason to believe based on scholarly work examining strategic voting that it has a very small influence at best (and according to one study, less so in marginal seats).

And, again, in your words: "The only reason JT won it in 2011 is because the race in 2008 was close, so a lot of would-be NDP voters strategically voted for either him or the BQ, thus suprressing the NDP vote." [emphasis added]

Well, don't I feel silly.

Anyways, from what I've seen anyalysing thousands of election maps is that strategic voting is a thing that happens. It has an effect on a few seats, and it just so happens that there is a correlation between the closeness of the 2008 result in Quebec ridings and the NDP swing to 2011. You can chalk it up to whatever factors you want, but my theory is it has to do with strategic voting (and we're only talking about 10% of the electorate, anyways). 
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: July 21, 2015, 05:04:58 pm
The only reason JT won it in 2011 is because the race in 2008 was close, so a lot of would-be NDP voters strategically voted for either him or the BQ, thus suprressing the NDP vote. You can tell this, because the NDP swing was lower in Papineau than in other ridings on the island, while the swing away from the Liberals and BQ was lower.  

If Papineau had the same swing as neighbouring Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, JT would have lost by about 10 points.  Admittedly, Rosemont is not the best comparison as it's very different demographically, but the next best riding (Ahuntsic) also a depressed NDP vote for the same reason as Papineau.



Trudeau won in 2008 and 2011 because he had built up a ground game that was strong enough to overcome incumbent advantage and one-time wave over-performance, respectively. That's what reduced the swing away from the Libs/BQ and toward the NDP.

Also, it's myopic to believe that anyone (except perhaps contributors to this forum) would decide their vote based on strategic considerations extrapolated from data analytics derived from the preceding election.


Then how come the same thing happened in Ahuntsic and in Brossard-La Prairie? Both of those ridings are outliers in terms of swing, and all of them saw close races in 2008.

Come on man, it's not "data analytics". Strategic voting is a thing, and the #1 resource strategic voters use to do so is the past result in their district.

I've mapped the swing in the election, and those three ridings stood out as outliers. What else do they have in common that could result in that?

A good ground game. Or better fundraising. Or good campaign messaging/literature. Or clever deployment of resources before/on election day. Or local endorsements ...

My point wasn't that strategic voting wasn't a factor in any Papineau voters' minds in 2011, just that inferring from a uniform swing pattern that strategic voting was the "only reason" for Trudeau winning (or those other ridings coming up with the results they did) is rather fanciful.

Perhaps I went too far when I implied virtually no one would decide their vote on strategic grounds, but in general I think strategic voting is overestimated. Research on this is largely inconclusive, or at least contested, and even the studies that show it exists ascribe low single digits to it (in terms of percentage of votes cast) at best.

In short, singular explanations are seldom sufficient, but if I was going to pick one for why Trudeau won in 2011, I'd say a good ground game was more important than strategic voting by a long shot.





Never, ever did I say strategic voting was the only reason, but it absolutely exists. All you got to do is look at voting patters in adjacent ridings. I know you're originally from Ottawa, so let's look at Ottawa for an example. The neighbourhood of Carlington is split down the middle, with the eastern half in Ottawa Centre and the western half in Ottawa West-Nepean. Not much difference between both halves demographically. Yet, the NDP won the eastern half, and did not win the western half. Progressives in the eastern half voted NDP because Paul Dewar was the MP, and they knew they had to vote for him to stop the Conservatives. In the western half, where the NDP has never won before, progressives were split. Some voted NDP due to the surge, while others voted Liberal, knowing that the NDP never does well there. As a result, the Conservatives won most of the polls there due to vote splitting.
25  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: June Mideast Assembly elections + Constitutional amendment on: July 21, 2015, 10:17:13 am
Oh, I missed that. I scanned the post looking for numbers, but he wrote out "seventy-two hours" when it is common practice not to write out numbers larger than 10.
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