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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: It's against the law in Canada to defend yourself in your own home on: August 17, 2017, 10:28:21 pm
at least we didn't elect a fascist.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Saskatchewan Party leadership election 2017/8 on: August 16, 2017, 06:47:25 pm
Tina Beaudry-Mellor is the first entrant of the race, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/tina-beaudry-mellor-leadership-bid-1.4247897

She's the current Social Services Minister and is a first term MLA.  She's my MLA and I really doubt she'd hold onto her seat, even if she was leader. The NDP's polling lead is huge in Regina, and Eric Grenier will likely have her down at least 20-30 points below the NDP candidate come the next provincial election, not exactly the kind of position you would want from a leader.

If Grenier thinks she will lose by 20-30 then we will know for sure she will not lose by 20-30.

I like to think that we can do a better job of analysis then him.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: August 15, 2017, 11:35:28 am
Would May beat Corbyn in Canada? We did a poll on this in April:



Of course, this was before the last minute swing to Labour.

I also can confirm Merkel is very popular in Canada. We did another poll a few years ago and she was basically the most popular world leader at the time (moreso than even Harper!).

Personally, I wouldn't put Trudeau in the same discussion as Wynne, Notley and Horgan. To be a centre-left politician, you have to actually do progressive things, not just say them.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017 on: August 13, 2017, 12:06:14 am
Whither the Alberta Liberals, then?  (Might they strike a "marriage of convenience" with the Alberta Party?)

I think they will.  I think you will see a unite the centre between the Alberta Liberals and Alberta Party and likewise they will include many Red Tories from the former Alberta PCs which are not comfortable with the merged party.  Doubt they will go that far in 2019, but I think in 2023 they have a much better chance for a breakthrough.

I disagree. I think it's more likely the Liberals will disappear into irrelevancy (if they have not done so already) like they did in Saskatchewan.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: August 13, 2017, 12:05:02 am
he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...
Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

Actually, post-1993, NI-Powell River (or some such equivalent) only went NDP in 2006 and 2015.  Most of the rest you mention are indeed "candidate-specific" (uh, how is Berthier-Maskinongé *not* because of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau?) or easily swayable to other parties--Outremont would probably have gone Liberal if not for Mulcair last time.

And conversely, the PCs were in as much of if not more of a "can't put any seat at risk" situation when Joe Clark was byelected in Kings-Hants.


True enough although I think the federal Liberals agreeing not to run a candidate against him probably played a big role as the NDP at that time was very weak in rural Nova Scotia (largely Halifax and Cape Breton Island then) and the Canadian Alliance was never popular in Atlantic Canada so they were no threat.  Had the federal Liberals put up a candidate then they might have not done so, and my suggestion on ipolitics was the Conservatives and Liberals should as a courtesy agree not put up a candidate against him (there is precedence for this, Chretien in Beausejour, Stockwell Day in Okanagan-Coquihalla, Stephen Harper in Calgary Southwest, and Joe Clark in Kings-Hants) so long as it is an existing NDP riding (If he runs in a vacant Liberal or Tory held riding then they will put up a candidate).

Why should the Liberals and Conservatives afford him a courtesy that the NDP has never afforded either party? The NDP always runs in these kinds of by-elections, and should expect no different from their rivals.
6  General Politics / Economics / Re: An Independent American South Would be World's 6th Largest Country on: August 12, 2017, 11:49:24 pm
climate change will put a stop to this nonsense 
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: August 12, 2017, 11:40:15 pm
he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

I think Jenny Kwan would rather enjoy the much higher paycheque and prestige being an MP offers. She also has the seat for as long as she wants, which could reasonably be decades. Melanie Mark, Kwan's successor, also isn't going anywhere either, besides maybe the Premier's office one day.

I could see some of the Windsor MP's vacating a seat for Singh, and him winning, but none of them  seem old enough to want to retire.

Singh does have some Windsor roots, but I wouldn't call either seat safe, so it would be a risk.

Singh is better off waiting for the next election. The embarrassment of losing a by-election a la John Tory would make leading the party impossible. However, if any Brampton or Surrey based riding suddenly become vacant, it would be too tempting not to contest.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Kamloops, BC mayor: Sept 30) on: August 12, 2017, 10:44:31 pm
Saskatoon Fairview by-election set for Sept 7.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017 on: August 12, 2017, 07:07:08 pm
Fildebrandt was in at least one of my classes in university, and I can confirm the man is a nutcase. He had a big reputation as being the most right wing person on campus. No wonder he moved to the most right wing part of Alberta to start his political career. (Actually, this practice is quite common for young conservatives to move to Alberta to get in to politics; there are many examples of this).

With the above in mind, I think Hatman will smile while he reads this story.

Fildebrandt is blaming Jean for leaking this. He's already doing damage control by offering to donate the money back, but considering this guy's old job with the Canadian Taxpayers' Federation, this looks terrible.

Yes this does bring a smile to my face Cheesy

My take on Alberta polarization is that it's not a left vs. right polarization but a centrist vs. right polarization. The NDP united the centre and centre left in 2015, while the right (which has a bigger slice of the pie) was divided. If the centre still likes the NDP going forward (most still do), I don't see the Alberta Party going anywhere. Notley may be hated by the right in Alberta, but I still think she's respected by most people in the middle. Perhaps someone in Alberta would know better though.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: August 12, 2017, 06:53:34 pm
he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta United Conservative Party Leadership Election, 2017 on: August 03, 2017, 06:53:09 am
Nice to see that weasel Kenney is polling worse than Jean.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: August 02, 2017, 10:23:27 am

Now there's a prediction I take no issue with Wink (providing that she actually wins the nomination)
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Kamloops, BC mayor: Sept 30) on: July 31, 2017, 05:25:14 pm
Mea culpa, Hatman. Didn't know about redistribution. In related news, Tories polling at 50% (!!!) in 416?

No worries; I can be cranky in the morning.

Speaking of the new Toronto Centre riding, I don't think the Tories can win it without Rosedale, so it will be a two-way fight.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: July 31, 2017, 01:09:57 pm
Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

This is why I support him too. Though I acknowledge his candidacy could be a risky proposition, but the NDP needs to throw a hail Mary right about now.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Kamloops, BC mayor: Sept 30) on: July 31, 2017, 09:20:04 am
Few if any safer Grit seats.

Why do you always make these wild proclamations? Your first prediction for the Soo by-election was that it would be a Liberal-NDP race for pete's sake.

Toronto Centre used to vote for the Tories, and with Kathleen Wynne being so unpopular, in a by-election scenario I could see a lot of the voters switching to them, and if the NDP targets, we could see a 3 way race. There have been two by-elections in recent history, in 2010 the NDP won 33% (provincial) and in 2013 the NDP won 36% (federal).

If there is no by-election, then the new Toronto Centre riding will be a pure toss up. The redistributed federal results from 2011 had the Liberals win the riding by just three points. Safe seat indeed! Roll Eyes  
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: July 31, 2017, 08:40:26 am
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? Wink I just created my own crosstabs!

Yes. That was poor wording on my part.

Are you guys polling BC enough to get a large enough sample for meaningful crosstabs? Atlantic crosstabs are crappy enough, and the Okanagan is smaller than that

We had a lot of data across the country available during the federal election. It's why my (our) seat by seat predictions were the best; I was able to identify trends that no one else could possibly know (except those working on the campaigns).

17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread on: July 31, 2017, 08:38:14 am
Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.

How do you get that?
Those results don't break down by area.  I think Surrey First won virtually every poll, though obviously some were closer than others.

I suppose that's possible, but with a ward system, I think Surrey would quickly develop a two party system, instead of being ruled by a mushy centre-right party that holds all of the seats.

Although Surrey Mayor Linda Heppner doesn't seem to be doing as badly as she did in her first year or so in office as mayor when I thought she was just hopeless, I would be very surprised if Surrey First won every council seat in 2018.

Well, they could get 51% of the vote and still win all 8 seats because of the at-large voting system, so I'm not holding my breath.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Has the left hit rock bottom in terms of international political power? on: July 30, 2017, 10:27:14 am

Canada - the globalist left


lol.

/thread
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: July 30, 2017, 10:19:14 am
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? Wink I just created my own crosstabs!
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread on: July 30, 2017, 10:12:25 am
Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.

How do you get that?
Those results don't break down by area.  I think Surrey First won virtually every poll, though obviously some were closer than others.

I suppose that's possible, but with a ward system, I think Surrey would quickly develop a two party system, instead of being ruled by a mushy centre-right party that holds all of the seats.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: July 29, 2017, 09:59:04 pm
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2018 BC Liberal leadership race megathread on: July 29, 2017, 09:48:57 pm
Seeing those council results in Surrey makes me very disappointed that there is no ward system there. Surrey is a very polarized city, and having one party hold every single seat in the city is just awful.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: July 28, 2017, 02:46:24 pm
Any hot takes on the Trudeau Rolling Stone cover/"Why can't he be our President" lolness?

horribly cringeworthy. My favourite part is when they called the RCMP the "Royal Canadian Mountain Police"
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: July 28, 2017, 02:45:04 pm
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Kamloops, BC mayor: Sept 30) on: July 28, 2017, 01:21:58 pm
In addition to resigning as BC Liberal leader, Christy Clark will also be resigning her seat.
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