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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Saskatoon Meewasin (prov), SK: Mar 2) on: February 21, 2017, 12:37:29 am
Oh look, lotuslander found a thread that's not about BC. Guess it's finally time to put him on ignore.

You can tell Nik Nanos I say 'hi'.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Saskatoon Meewasin (prov), SK: Mar 2) on: February 20, 2017, 11:00:55 pm
Off topic but still related, what's going on with the sudden drop in support for the Liberals?




Progressives outside of Canada haven't got the memo yet, but lil' Justin has been a huge disappointment. He tells us what we want to hear, but doesn't do what we want to be done. I don't know how many people actually care about electoral reform, but it's probably enough to account for a couple of points in the polls.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada's early history on: February 20, 2017, 12:28:37 pm
Really it's silly that Canada is not a part of the United States.  What's the point?

Have you seen who your President is?
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Worse election defeat on: February 20, 2017, 12:26:05 pm
I agree with IceAge, 1993 PCs wins hands down with out being on the ballot.

Typical that that the OP would forget that. I guess he will try and find away to blame it on socialism?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017 on: February 18, 2017, 06:31:04 pm
O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/
Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!
It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

I miss the days when it was rare for anyone on this forum to actually support the Liberals. It's too bad that American progressives are only exposed to Trudeau's good side.

Honestly, Trudeau seems like a pretty good fit for a lot of Atlas' centre left.

Maybe it's just kids these days. It's been a long time since the Liberals were in power, but people my age remember how disappointing they were.

But anyways, sorry for hijacking the thread.
6  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Canadian Census on: February 18, 2017, 06:28:03 pm
The biggest surprise in my opinion was that Manitoba has a higher growth rate than Ontario.

Oil?

If it was oil, it wouldn't be surprising.

The biggest surprise in my opinion was that Manitoba has a higher growth rate than Ontario.

Oil?
No oil there.

Manitoba has a significantly higher birth rate than Ontario. Most recent data I got (2013) has MB at 1.91 and ON at 1.51.

That might be it. Maybe higher Aboriginal, Filipino and Mennonite populations have something to do with this?

You might be onto something there. I did a quick skim of census growth in Manitoba by riding. Provencher was one of the fastest growing ridings.

Yeah, and I noticed Steinbach saw a large population growth.
7  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Canadian Census on: February 18, 2017, 03:40:09 pm
I mean, Ontario has a lot of declining "Rust Belt"-type areas, doesn't it? While Manitoba doesn't? Toronto is growing quickly but I thought is mostly doing so by sucking all of the people from the rest of province in so doesn't contribute much to net provincial growth.

Well, SW Ontario and the North are declining, but the rest of the provinces is growing.. slowly. Another surprise in the census was how some older suburbs were declining in population (like Markham-Thornhill).
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017 on: February 18, 2017, 03:37:36 pm
O'Leary with slight lead over Leitch in CPC supporters poll, with Bernier in strong 3rd. All other candidates are bit players. More importantly, Leitch and O'Leary are tied for "which candidate would you rank the last". Looks like the CPC leadership race will become an even greater dumpster fire than the Republican primary.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/17/leitch-surges-in-latest-mainstreet-tory-leadership-poll/
Hopefully without the same ultimate electoral result.
http://globalnews.ca/news/3207501/kevin-oleary-justin-trudeau-conservative-leadership-race-poll/
With O'Leary as leader, Liberals and Conservatives would be neck-and-neck. But with either of the other two as leader, the Conservatives would win 26-28% - the worst result for the right in general since Confederation. Sad!
It stands to reason. O'Leary is pretty liberal (for lack of a better term) especially on social issues while Leitch is fairly right wing (especially on social issues). If I were Canadian, I'd still support Trudeau's Liberals but I wouldn't feel like the earth is falling apart if O'Leary Tories won. Can't say I'd feel the same way with Leitch.

Of course, polls were wrong here stateside...

I miss the days when it was rare for anyone on this forum to actually support the Liberals. It's too bad that American progressives are only exposed to Trudeau's good side.
9  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Canadian Census on: February 17, 2017, 02:02:34 pm
The biggest surprise in my opinion was that Manitoba has a higher growth rate than Ontario.

Oil?

If it was oil, it wouldn't be surprising.

The biggest surprise in my opinion was that Manitoba has a higher growth rate than Ontario.

Oil?
No oil there.

Manitoba has a significantly higher birth rate than Ontario. Most recent data I got (2013) has MB at 1.91 and ON at 1.51.

That might be it. Maybe higher Aboriginal, Filipino and Mennonite populations have something to do with this?
10  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northern Voting Booth - February 2017 Regional Election + Referendums on: February 17, 2017, 10:22:39 am
Senate
[1]R2D2/20RP12

Governor
[1]Mike Wells


Assembly
[1] Wolverine
[2] JGibson
[3] Lok1999
[4] DrewMike87
[5] CXSmith

Name Change
[X] No

[1] Atlantic Union
[2] Write in: Nyman



Amendmets
Executive Tiebreaking
[X] Nay

Voter Integrity
[X] Abstain


11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: February 2017 Federal Election on: February 17, 2017, 10:16:39 am
President
[1] NeverAgain / Southern Gothic
[2] Maxwell/smilo
[3] Write in: dfwlibertylover/Poirot

House of Represenatives
[1] Peebs
[2] simossad
[3] OneJ_
[4] 1184AZ
[5] Cashew
[6] North Carolina Yankee
[7] lwp2004
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: February 17, 2017, 10:08:55 am
I love how Forum tries to spin a 416 tie as good news for Wynne. Last poll that had similar 416 # also had Brown +19 provincewide. Tongue

Why are pollsters so foolish when it comes to electoral commentary? Hatman is literally the only person I've heard who both works for a polling firm and understands political geography well.

Thanks Smiley

But a lot of professional pundits don't know anything about political geography, so it's par for the course.

Yes, that was odd reporting by Forum, something like "If the Conservatives want to form a majority government they need to be doing better than a tie in the city of Toronto."

How much can the Tories lose in the Toronto and still form a majority government?  Obviously the numbers can't be calculated in isolation, but my guess would be around by around 10%

We also have to acknowledge that Forum is particularly awful when it comes to political geography, which is ironic, because they usually do the most geographically granular political polling. Sad!

Keep in mind though, knowledge of political geography is not needed for most of my job as a pollster. It comes in handy occasionally for sure, but it's not crucial in the industry.

How much political geographic knowledge does a person need to know that Toronto is normally a very liberal (and Liberal) leaning city?

Especially when said polling firm is based in Toronto?
13  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Canadian Census on: February 16, 2017, 11:19:38 pm
The biggest surprise in my opinion was that Manitoba has a higher growth rate than Ontario.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: February 16, 2017, 11:15:55 pm

Jagmeet is running for the federal leadership...he is playing coy for now but he already has a campaign team working

Yeah, it's painfully obvious that he's running. Why the doubt RB? It doesn't make any sense, other than a lack of knowledge of the NDP...
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Provincial Redistribution, 2017 on: February 15, 2017, 07:14:36 pm
The new Calgary split in the north makes the baby Jesus cry Cry
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: February 15, 2017, 10:38:00 am
I love how Forum tries to spin a 416 tie as good news for Wynne. Last poll that had similar 416 # also had Brown +19 provincewide. Tongue

Why are pollsters so foolish when it comes to electoral commentary? Hatman is literally the only person I've heard who both works for a polling firm and understands political geography well.

Thanks Smiley

But a lot of professional pundits don't know anything about political geography, so it's par for the course.

Yes, that was odd reporting by Forum, something like "If the Conservatives want to form a majority government they need to be doing better than a tie in the city of Toronto."

How much can the Tories lose in the Toronto and still form a majority government?  Obviously the numbers can't be calculated in isolation, but my guess would be around by around 10%

We also have to acknowledge that Forum is particularly awful when it comes to political geography, which is ironic, because they usually do the most geographically granular political polling. Sad!

Keep in mind though, knowledge of political geography is not needed for most of my job as a pollster. It comes in handy occasionally for sure, but it's not crucial in the industry.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Provincial Redistribution, 2017 on: February 15, 2017, 09:31:10 am
Yeah, my problem with Calgary-Klein was that it crossed the Deerfoot. Krago's fix did not address that issue. I know fixing the problem would create a domino effect in other ridings, but I think it would be nice to see what it would look like.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Process / Re: Does the US have a legitimate electoral system? on: February 15, 2017, 09:20:47 am
duh.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian politics : why is Quebec City so conservative? on: February 14, 2017, 06:51:09 pm
Look into Radio Poubelle. Quebec's right wing radio stations have a large following and promote tea-party like views. Andre Arthur, one of the stars, was actually elected as an MNA for a long time from the region. That explains some of the more rabid conservatism, but I think some of the more right leaning following emerges from the Church having retained more cultural (not necessarily sectarian religious influence) influence on the region than in Montreal.

Arthur was actually an MP, even. But actually only served 5 years.  I feel like Quebec City conservatism is more libertarian leaning. Socially moderate, fiscally conservative voters.

Sometimes capital cities can be more polarized...everyone who is not a civil servant is envious and ends of hating the civil service! In Quebec City the inner city seats where all the government buildings are - tend to vote left...just as in Ottawa you don't see Tories winning in Ottawa vanier or Ottawa Centre...the suburbs are a different story - but suburban Ottawa is also surprisingly conservative and there are PC MPPs sitting in Queens Park from suburban Ottawa...but you never see PCs winning equivalent seats in suburban Toronto

This is an interesting thought. Orleans, which has more public servants (more Francophones) tends to be more Liberal leaning.  I think in Ottawa a lot of that anti-public service resentment is from bilingualism. A lot of us maudit anglais find it hard to get jobs in this city, especially in government. 
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: February 14, 2017, 02:26:43 pm
I love how Forum tries to spin a 416 tie as good news for Wynne. Last poll that had similar 416 # also had Brown +19 provincewide. Tongue

Why are pollsters so foolish when it comes to electoral commentary? Hatman is literally the only person I've heard who both works for a polling firm and understands political geography well.

Thanks Smiley

But a lot of professional pundits don't know anything about political geography, so it's par for the course.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017 on: February 14, 2017, 12:14:05 pm
Yeah, Deepak seems to be a genuinely nice person, and is quite humourous. His candidacy is bizarre, but I guess he thought it was 'his turn' because he is the longest serving Tory MP.

Tied with the longest actually.  As Yoda said "No, there is another."  Gerry Ritz was also elected in 1997.

yeah, but how's Gerry's French? Wink
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017 on: February 14, 2017, 09:46:38 am
Yeah, Deepak seems to be a genuinely nice person, and is quite humourous. His candidacy is bizarre, but I guess he thought it was 'his turn' because he is the longest serving Tory MP.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Toronto Ward 42: Feb. 13) on: February 14, 2017, 09:36:38 am
Results:
Neethan Shan: 4765 (45.7%)
Zuhair Syed: 1452 (13.9%)
Hratch Aynedjian: 1058 (10.2%)
26 others: 3143 (30.2%)

With two candidates using red, no wonder Liberals couldn't get behind a candidate!

This ward covers the Malvern community of the city (would be the likely name of the ward if Toronto had proper ward names). It's only 10% White, and 43% South Asian, many of whom are Tamil like Shan. 17% of the ward has Tamil as its mother tongue.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Toronto Ward 42: Feb. 13) on: February 14, 2017, 12:52:02 am
I knew Shan would probably win, but that is certainly an impressive victory. I figured voters would've got sick of him running for election every six months. So what, we are now headed for a third school board by-election to fill his seat? Tongue
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Provincial Redistribution, 2017 on: February 13, 2017, 06:12:01 pm
Much better! Cheesy

Oh, and why is Edmonton-Meadowlark called that IRL? The Meadowlark area is not in the riding Tongue Maybe we should rename it Edmononton-Murphy? Though "West Edmonton" of course is the only acceptable name.
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