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October 30, 2014, 01:57:49 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: Today at 06:24:22 am
The Liberals aren't progressives though, they're centrists. When Progressives vote Liberal, they're suggesting they're OK with the country swinging to a centre vs centre-right dichotomy.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: October 29, 2014, 09:53:00 pm
Ricky's gonna be pissed.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: October 29, 2014, 09:52:15 pm
Don't forget the Ontario Liberals were to the right of the Tories in the 1970s and early 80s.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: October 29, 2014, 07:39:57 pm
Aside from the political and cultural differences, who's to say we have it wrong in Canada, whereas the US has it right? I would love it if the US had its own social democratic party.

But, I have to go back to my earlier point. The Liberals and Tories have a lot more in common than the Liberals and NDP. Look no further than the Toronto mayoral election. Liberals in Toronto had the choice between a conservative (John Tory) and a New Democrat (Olivia Chow) and overwhelmingly backed Tory.  A lot of that was to stop Ford, but remember, Chow had been leading at one point.

Similarly, we saw in the federal election, a lot of Liberals switching to the Conservatives to stop the NDP.

In a lot urban centres there are a lot of people who switch between the NDP and Liberals, but they pale in comparison between the Liberal-Conservative swing voters in the more populous suburbs.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: October 29, 2014, 06:53:52 pm
Is what seperates the NDP and the Liberals worse than what seperates Tony Blair and Tony Benn? Bill Clinton and Dennis Kucinich? No. They could be one damn party.

Yes, in a sense. The Liberals are a corporatist party. No way the rank and file NDPers would tolerate becoming a corporatist party.  Dennis Kucinich doesn't seem to have that problem.

Would Bernie Sanders become a Democrat? No.
6  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: October 29, 2014, 02:54:26 pm
Oh please please please have Doug Ford run for leader of the PCs.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: October 28, 2014, 07:57:46 pm
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-election-john-tory-elected-mayor-1.2814902



John Tory was elected Mayor of Toronto today, meaning that the Queen City will have a sane mayor for the first time since December 2010.

As of 10:20 EST the top five are as follows;

Legislative Assemblyman/2003 Mayoral Candidate (Progressive Conservative) John Tory 40.272%
Toronto City Councillor Doug Ford (Independent) 33.737%
Former Member of Parliament Olivia Chow (New Democrat) 23.145%
Criminal Lawyer Ari Goldkind (Independent) 0.399%
Some Lady Selina Chan (Independent) 0.238%


lol, New York Express...

We have a thread about these elections you know

It's worth pointing out the conversation about said election could be entirely different here, than in the election thread, and I'd probably be more detailed in the election thread.

No, the election thread is full of maps. Much better than here.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: October 28, 2014, 07:56:09 pm
Even if all the left wing and centrist parties merged in Alberta, it would be nowhere near close enough to even form official opposition.

A lot of progressives backed (and still back) the PCs, to stop Wildrose. I think one of our posters here, njall is one such example.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread on: October 28, 2014, 07:53:39 pm
Proof that electing school board trustees is a waste of time. Last election, a candidate was elected to the Catholic board just because he had the same name as a famous local politician.

A 20-year old Mike Ford with only a high school diploma and family business experience defeated a highly-qualified, experienced, centre-right incumbent in Toronto city council. That Ford barely even campaigned. Democracy just doesn't work when voters don't understand their options. Downballot municipal elections suffer from this.

I think you mean Trustee. Mike Ford won as a trustee. But, I think we all knew Mike Ford would win. It is Ford Nation after all.

10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins on: October 28, 2014, 04:13:23 pm
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-election-john-tory-elected-mayor-1.2814902



John Tory was elected Mayor of Toronto today, meaning that the Queen City will have a sane mayor for the first time since December 2010.

As of 10:20 EST the top five are as follows;

Legislative Assemblyman/2003 Mayoral Candidate (Progressive Conservative) John Tory 40.272%
Toronto City Councillor Doug Ford (Independent) 33.737%
Former Member of Parliament Olivia Chow (New Democrat) 23.145%
Criminal Lawyer Ari Goldkind (Independent) 0.399%
Some Lady Selina Chan (Independent) 0.238%


lol, New York Express...

We have a thread about these elections you know
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread on: October 28, 2014, 02:44:08 pm
A candidate for Catholic school board trustee who had pulled out of the race got elected anyways: http://www.ottawasun.com/2014/10/28/school-board-trustee-elected---but-doesnt-want-job

Proof that electing school board trustees is a waste of time. Last election, a candidate was elected to the Catholic board just because he had the same name as a famous local politician.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: October 28, 2014, 10:35:38 am
The similarities between Toronto and Alberta are hard to ignore.

Wildrose = Ford Nation
PCs = John Tory
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread on: October 28, 2014, 09:31:26 am
Compare:
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread on: October 28, 2014, 08:46:31 am
More maps:


15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread on: October 28, 2014, 06:41:30 am
I find it utterly bizarre that the parts of Toronto which managed to elect a Liberal MP in 2011, with the exception of Centre, all voted for Doug Ford.  Your suburban Liberals are weird, Ontario

You mean, minorities? I think they're the Ford Liberal types.

Calgary is weird, too. A gay progressive Muslim got like 70% of the vote there I think. Issues are different. But with Ford it's more like the absence of issues. A you vs. the elite type of appeal with the working class. Party ID is a factor. PCs have no seats in Toronto but with independent labels many conservative councillors, including Rob Ford who has returned in a landslide, were voted in. But, yes Ford/Wynne voters I really don't understand. Not to mention the polls showing Ford carrying a third of Green voters and a fifth of NDPers. With the high turnout there must have been a lot of these voters.

Nenshi isn't gay.

That we know of.

Anyways, I found this map which might explain the situation a little.


It's very class based in addition to downtown vs suburb.
We can see Tory won wealthy areas irrespective of location.
Poor + downtown = Chow (downtown is wealthier so not much purple)
Poor + suburb = Ford

So it seems anti-elitism is why Tory never caught on with lower-income Ford Nation that much. He absorbed Chow and minor candidate supporters - the anybody but Ford vote.
Rich suburbs which voted for Rob now backtracked to Tory after four years in office.
The question is why down-scale suburbanites love Ford. Even in the 2011 federal conservative breakthrough, the CPC never won Toronto ridings overwhelmingly, and their gains in places like York or Scarborough were more cracks than clean sweeps. Again, class seems to explain the different pattern of support for the CPC and Ford. Note the CPC won high-income Don Valley while it was a John Tory stronghold.
The Liberals and NDP do have a much better hold on lower-class suburbs than municipal progressives. Many Ford supporters aren't engaged beyond the special place they hold for the Fords in their hearts, even if the Fords are still filthy rich themselves. Urban populism isn't something the PCs or CPCs can wield and again different issues cause these voters to side with other parties. I would imagine it's much harder to convince voters that say, Hudak would be best for the working class.

The comparison is striking.

So Chow lost ward 20 then? A shame, really. I guess it is the wealthier half of her old riding. But, I suppose I should be happy she won any wards.  Interesting to see that John Tory finished third in a handful of lower income areas.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: October 28, 2014, 06:34:46 am
I know a lot of non-ideological people on the left want the Liberals and NDP to merge, but there are more similarities between Liberals and Tories than there are between Liberals and the NDP. Better for the Liberals and Alberta Party to merge.

Interesting results. Not a bad night for the Tories. A terrible night for Wildrose. All four ridings are fairly wealthy, especially Elbow and Whitemud, and it appears the wealthy in Alberta do not like Wildrose. Jim Prentice is a natural fit for the Alberta upper class.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 10:49:04 pm
Terrible news for Wildrose to lose Calgary-West.

Great news for the Alberta Party. They have proved they are still relevant. I'm not sure where their natural base is though?

Also, it looks like the NDP will finish 2nd in Whitemud. This is fabulous news. Hopefully this means the party can win a handful of seats in the city.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 09:45:23 pm
PCs now ahead in Calgary-West. Looks like the WRP is having trouble winning in their key areas, specifically Signal Hill. I think the Tories will win it.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 09:13:09 pm
WRP up by 4% over PCs in Calgary-West (presumably from advance votes)

Yes it was: http://results.elections.ab.ca/27BE.htm

Alberta, the only province to tell us what polls are reporting. Should make the night a lot more fun.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2014 on: October 27, 2014, 09:04:40 pm
Polls have closed in the 4 Alberta by-elections
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread on: October 27, 2014, 08:53:52 pm
Only one sitting councillor lost in Toronto, in Don Valley West where John Tory endorsed his buddy against another conservative.

Ottawa had two incumbents losing. I predicted on my blog that those very two councillors were in jeopardy.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread on: October 27, 2014, 08:34:38 pm
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread on: October 27, 2014, 08:18:54 pm
Turnout in Toronto at 64%. That's higher than federal elections.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread on: October 27, 2014, 08:07:33 pm
CBC showed a map of who was winning each ward. Quite bizarre. Chow is winning in 4 wards (Trinity-Spadina, south Davenport and Parkdale.

Ford winning in Etobicoke and the Western North York area and Scarborough. Tory ahead everywhere else.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread on: October 27, 2014, 08:01:16 pm
Ford just all but announced he's running in 2018.

lol

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