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April 29, 2017, 08:33:21 am
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017 on: Today at 08:16:20 am
Got my ballot today. I know who my top 3-4 are and I know who my bottom picks are, but I have no idea what I'm doing with the middle of my ballot. Thoughts?

Are you putting the social conservative options (like Trost or Lemieux) first, or are you going with electability (so presumably Raitt or Chong)? I'd ask you to put Bernier high, but he really doesn't seem like your style of conservative...

Fringe socons, then Scheer is my electable socon. After that I don't know. I want some sort of mix between liking personality, policies, and their electability.

My ballot currently looks like

1) Lemieux
2) Trost
3) Scheer
4-10) Huh

Ballot cutoff
O'Leary
Leitch
Blaney
Peterson

Lemieux? why put him above Trost? Personally, the man makes my skin crawl. I used to intern for an MP that was in the same committee as him, and he did not leave a good impression on me. Though, I can't imagine Trost being much better.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017 on: April 28, 2017, 08:48:23 am
Sadly Canada's next PM is likely Kellie Leitch. 

LOL

Hot take alert! Hot take alert!
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017 on: April 26, 2017, 02:50:17 pm
Do Conservatives just blindly follow the endorsements of candidates who drop out? I don't think we can assume Bernier will win. His style of libertarianism may be toxic with many in the party.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: April 24, 2017, 09:45:59 am

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

In my experience, if you think response rates to IVR surveys are low among the general public...its nothing compared to how low those response rates are among "New Canadians" (i.e. South Asians, Chinese etc...)...and the people from those ethnic communities who do take part in surveys are usually third generation people who are totally assimilated.

I somewhat don't concur. I'm "first-generation" (but I was here since 6) and I answer polls..

While technically first generation, I don't think it really counts. If you immigrate in early childhood, you're going to be more similar to a 2nd generation person.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 23, 2017, 08:58:27 am
There has been a long line to reach the voting place in Montreal all day. Voters have said they waited 2 hours. At the close there was still a long line and those people will still be able to vote.

57000 people are registered to vote in Montreal (vs 44000 in 2012).
The news story mentions people wanting to vote against the extremist candidates.

Video of the line during the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SblCuZVOk8s

that video said the lineup was 3 hours! In that time, they could've driven to the embassy in Ottawa (2 hour drive), and waited in the much shorter 1 hour line up.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many different countries were your great grandparents born in? on: April 20, 2017, 06:00:36 pm
Canada
UK (England & Northern Ireland)
Germany
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you have ADD or ADHD? on: April 20, 2017, 05:34:40 pm
ADD. Once they threatened me with switching schools, I smartened up though. Never had to take ritalin, thankfully.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 20, 2017, 12:26:30 pm
Is there any way we can ban Americans from posting in this thread unless they pass an IQ test or something?

The poster in question should be banned from this forum in general.

But... lol.. I don't think it's possible to formulate a post that would bug Al any more than that one.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: April 20, 2017, 12:24:26 pm
Pat Stogran is officially in. Will be very interesting to see how well he does. The juxtaposition between him and Niki Ashton on the debate stage would be sight to see!
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Provincial Redistribution, 2017 on: April 20, 2017, 08:26:48 am
The Consultants hired to draw Oshawa's ward boundaries released their proposed maps today, only a couple of hours before a public hearing scheduled to discuss them!

Here is the report.

And here is my favourite map:



rofl. Whoever designed that map needs to be arrested for anti-democratic treason. It actually appears to be a gerrymander to ensure that left wing councillors aren't elected.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: April 19, 2017, 09:51:54 am
The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

Very interesting. Usually this sort of stuff is "whites somewhat right, everyone else left".

Not the case in Canada at all. Visible minorities tend to vote Liberal (and increasingly Conservative). Since Canada is so overwhelmingly White, Whites tend to be close to the mean, but are less likely to vote Liberal, and more-so for the NDP & Conservatives.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: federal by-elections: Apr 3) on: April 19, 2017, 09:23:04 am
Toronto might hold another City Council by-election, Scarborough ward 44 Councillor Ron Moeser has died
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2017/04/18/toronto-councillor-ron-moeser-dies.html

How popular was he? Every election he's been in since 2003 has been razor close.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: April 18, 2017, 05:37:08 pm
The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.

I guess social democracy and neoliberalism are all the same to you?
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 18, 2017, 12:46:38 pm
SHOCK HORROR AS POLITICAL COMPASS DOESN'T PLACE EVERY CANDIDATE IN TOP RIGHT



still wrong obviously

lol Macron
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 18, 2017, 10:55:47 am
Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.
Because the official opposition cannot say no to a GE, it's like admitting they're pointless

Snap elections are incredibly unpopular. The Tories can spin that any way they like, but I can't see it overcoming the population's disgust with having to go to the polls again. Now Labour can't use this issue as leverage.


What about the 2000 federal? Chretien called the Alliance's bluff and won an even bigger majority.


It is a pretty good analogy, yes. I know I'm grasping at straws here, but the 1997-2000 term was 3.5 years long, while my Ontario and Alberta examples are closer to an even 3. Perhaps those six months made all the difference in voter's minds? Tongue Anyways, the UK election will only be 2 years after the last one, which is extremely reckless in my mind, and would never fly over here.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: April 18, 2017, 10:36:28 am

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

In my experience, if you think response rates to IVR surveys are low among the general public...its nothing compared to how low those response rates are among "New Canadians" (i.e. South Asians, Chinese etc...)...and the people from those ethnic communities who do take part in surveys are usually third generation people who are totally assimilated.

Yes, I'm well aware. See Mainstreet's bombing of the Scarborough-Rouge River by-election, even while having Chinese and Tamil versions of their IVR survey available.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 18, 2017, 10:31:47 am
Incredibly ironic that the Republicans would get the endorsement of a pretender.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: April 18, 2017, 10:28:53 am
The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 18, 2017, 10:24:13 am
Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.
Because the official opposition cannot say no to a GE, it's like admitting they're pointless

Snap elections are incredibly unpopular. The Tories can spin that any way they like, but I can't see it overcoming the population's disgust with having to go to the polls again. Now Labour can't use this issue as leverage.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: April 18, 2017, 08:43:03 am
I recall the only black guy in Amos, Quebec got elected as mayor not too long ago. Also, the first black mayor in Canadian history was in Mattawa, Ontario.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 18, 2017, 08:39:33 am
Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 British Columbia election on: April 15, 2017, 08:37:17 am
Mainstreet has a new poll with big honking sample size of over 5,000!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-ndp-gain-campaign-begins/

NDP 39% (up 3%)
BC Libs 35% (up 2%)
Greens -19% (unchanged)
Conservatives 7% (down 4%)

It must be very very very distressing to the BC Liberals that they are not benefiting from the inevitable collapse of the moribund BC Conservatives...but this is consistent with how previous polls showed that relatively few Conservative supporters had the Liberals as their second choice. Let's face it, its hard to imagine a BC Liberal leader who would be more repulsive to diehard small "c" conservatives than Christy Clark. She is gltzy, elitist, wears furs and is a dyed in the wool federal Liberal. If you are a rightwing populist federal Conservative type in the interior - you take one look at Christy and all you can think is "stinkeroo"!

It gets worse for the Liberals. The Green vote is very soft and if and when their vote declines as people start to vote "strategically" - for every one vote the Libs get, the NDP will get 4 or 5.

Wow NDP and Greens are tied on Vancouver island!

The same thing happened in the federal election (according to our numbers), with about 2 weeks to go. Then the Green vote collapsed as people started voting strategically.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: April 12, 2017, 10:57:18 am
I find it interesting that the NDP might be optimistic enough to think Canadians will elect a brown guy Prime Minister.

Are we not supposed to say that? I have no faith in our people whatsoever.

The locals from my native Timmins-James Bay wouldn't be so hot on him, and it's an NDP stronghold.

What makes you say this?  I also grew up in Timmins, and tend to disagree with you.  Of course, Angus would probably be their first choice because he is the local MP, but TJ-B is very much an NDP stronghold, like you mentioned.  Singh is very pro union, and supports many of the "left-populist" issues that Northern Ontario NDP supports agree with.

Because he is a brown you see, and apparently Northern Ontarians are racist.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: April 05, 2017, 01:47:51 pm
I think the former is more likely, actually. Hard to see the NDP forming government in this province (not until everyone who was of voting age during the Bob Rae premiership dies off), but making seat gains federally? Not at all unlikely.

Funny the number of people in Ontario who will never vote NDP again due to the Bob Rae government, but hardly anybody seems to hold the Dalton McGuinty government against either the provincial or federal liberals.

This is common in many jurisdictions. People hold the NDP to a different standard, because they rarely form government.

Would be nice to see a provincial poll come out of Saskatchewan. The budget was very unpopular with both city and rural folk, and I wouldn't be surprised to see if the Sask Party's 30 point victory evaporated into a single digit lead in a poll.

Mainstreet did a post-budget poll.

47% would vote for the Sask Party, 42% NDP. NDP lead in Regina, narrow lead in Saskatoon and Sask dominates outside the cities.

Wall has a 46% approval rating, 45% disapproval.

http://leaderpost.com/news/politics/new-poll-shows-walls-popularity-falls-as-taxes-and-cuts-rise


Holy sh*tsnacks!
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: federal by-elections: Apr 3) on: April 04, 2017, 07:53:37 pm
Btw, Emilie Taman is a superb candidate. The next Ontario provincial election is. A year away and while the federal Liberals are still relatively popular, the Ontario Liberals most definitely are not. The Ontario Liberals are so unpopular they could be reduced to half a dozen seats. I wonder if Taman could be convinced to run for the Ontario NDP in Ottawa Centre (where she actually lives)

And Vanier would be one of those half dozen seats!

Exactly. That seat has been a Grit stronghold since 1935. The Ontario Liberals will probably do horrendously poorly at the provincial election, but I don't see that having much of an indicative effect federally.

Don't forget, there was just a provincial by-election in Ottawa-Vanier, where the Liberals still won by a large margin.
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