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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Whitby, ON, North Ward [June 16]) on: May 25, 2016, 07:43:56 pm
There's people like Alain Giguere who ran a bunch of paper campaigns (7 in his case) in Quebec until winning big in 2011.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Whitby, ON, North Ward [June 16]) on: May 25, 2016, 07:18:56 pm
If Shan wins, it would be hilarious for the TDSB would have to run a fifth by-election in just two years. These necessary by-elections with single digit turnouts are going to cripple the board.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (next event: Whitby, ON, North Ward [June 16]) on: May 25, 2016, 07:15:03 pm

You know sometimes these perennial candidates eventually hit the jackpot. Wayne Gates had run and lost for the NDP in Niagara Falls quite a few times before finally winning the byelection in 2014 and then getting re-elected in the general election!

federally Dan Harris won 2011 In Scarborough Southwest, he ran half a dozen times before being elected, before being knocked off by Bill-weed-is-still-a-crime-Blair Tongue

Irene Mathyssen won a bunch of times too, though that was after she was swept up in the 1990 orange crush.

4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Conservatives of atlas, are you aware that it is, in fact, 2016? on: May 25, 2016, 12:02:03 pm
Jesus, did Trudeau's "It's 2015" comment really turn into a meme?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (nxt event: Baie-Comeau & Val-d'Or council: May 15) on: May 25, 2016, 11:02:20 am
Brownsburg-Chatham, a municipality of 7000 people ~70km west of Montreal elected a new mayor Sunday.

Results:
Catherine Trickey: 501 (32.6%)
Daniel Massie: 461 (30.0%)
André McNicoll: 304 (19.8%)
Pierre Leclerc: 269 (17.5%)

Trickey was the councillor for District 5.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of posters who always write "Trump" in all caps on: May 23, 2016, 10:58:41 am
Isn't that how it's supposed to be spelled?
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of 49.8% of Austrian voters on: May 23, 2016, 10:39:21 am
Fascists.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 23, 2016, 10:19:29 am
the fact that a fascist almost won is a bit concerning. Luckily sanity prevailed at the end of the day.
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Earl's Canadian Electoral Reform Proposal Thread on: May 22, 2016, 08:50:42 pm
A couple of questions for Hatman

1) If you are doing regions in advance are you finding many where the winning party wins more FPTP seats than their entitlement like the Liberals did in Atlantic Canada?

2) What is your cap for seats in a region? This doesn't really matter with the one's you've done thus far, but it will once you start looking at Toronto or Montreal.

I'm not that far ahead, and I usually do my calculations when I post, so I don't know of anywhere else yet where a party wins more seats than they are entitled to. I suspect it will happen in rural Alberta, though. Probably will happen in Toronto too.

My regional cap is 12 seats. Toronto will be tricky as it has 25 seats, but I have a few ideas in terms of breaking the city up.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Experts: Most Mass Shooters Aren't Mentally Ill on: May 20, 2016, 04:00:10 pm
Doesn't really change the fact that increased gun control is not likely to help things...

Except it has in every country that has implemented it...
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Earl's Canadian Electoral Reform Proposal Thread on: May 20, 2016, 10:16:18 am
Manitoba

Manitoba also has 14 ridings, but 8 of them are in the Winnipeg area. To protect community of interest, I have decided to split Manitoba into two un-even regions. Winnipeg will have 8 seats (6 constituency, 2 list) and the rest of Manitoba will have 6 (4 and 2 respectively).

To make the 2 regions as close to the provincial quotient as possible, I've added the Sprinfield RM to the Winnipeg region in addition to area that currently exists within Winnipeg's 8 real life ridings (Winnipeg, Headingly RM, East St. Paul RM and West St. Paul RM).

The quotient for Winnipeg is thus 115,813.



For this map, I've drawn inspiration from the early 1980s riding map of the city...

Ridings:

Winnipeg--Birds Hill
(East. St. Paul RM, Springfield RM, and Winnipeg east of the Red River and north of the following line: Trent Ave, Golspie St, Dobbie Ave, Gateway Rd, Munroe Ave, Panet Rd, CN railway, Plessis Rd)
Population: 116,954 (+0.99%)
2015 result: Conservative

St. Boniface--St. Vital--Elmwood
(Winnipeg east of the Red River south of the following line: Trent Ave, Golspie St, Dobbie Ave, Gateway Rd, Munroe Ave, Panet Rd, CN railway, Plessis Rd and north of the following line: River Rd, Vista Ave, Wyoming St, Woodydell Ave, Dakota St, Hawkins Cres, Whitley Dr, Ashworth St, Woodydell Ave, Thunder Bay, Bramton St, Woodydell Ave, Seine River, western prolongation of Kotelko Dr, Hwy 59)
Population: 114,576 (-1.07%)
2015 result: Liberal

Winnipeg South
(Winnipeg south of the following line: McCreary Rd, CN railway, Wilkes Ave, Hurst Way, Parker Ave, Pembina Hwy, Croydon Ave, Red River, River Rd, Vista Ave, Wyoming St, Woodydell Ave, Dakota St, Hawkins Cres, Whitley Dr, Ashworth St, Woodydell Ave, Thunder Bay, Bramton St, Woodydell Ave, Seine River, western prolongation of Kotelko Dr, Hwy 59)
Population: 112,649 (-2.73%)
2015 result: Liberal

Winnipeg--Assiniboine
(Winnipeg west of the following line: Notre Dame Ave, St. James St, Portage Ave, Aubrey St, Waverley St, CN railway, McCreary Rd)
Population: 118,451 (+2.28%)
2015 result: Liberal

Winnipeg North--West St. Paul
(West St. Paul RM and Winnipeg west of the Red River and north of the following line: Notre Dame Ave, Keewatin St, CP railway, McPhillips St, Burrows Ave, Salter St, St. Johns Ave)
Population: 118,371 (+2.21%)
2015 result: Liberal

Winnipeg Centre
(Winnipeg within the following line: Notre Dame Ave, Keewatin St, CP railway, McPhillips St, Burrows Ave, Salter St, St. Johns Ave, Red River, Croydon Ave, Pembina Hwy, Parker Ave, Hurst Way, Waverley St, Aubrey St, Portage Ave, St. James St)
Population: 113,878 (-1.67%)
2015 result: Liberal

2015 results:
Liberal: 52.56% (entitled to 5 seats)
Conservative: 30.44% (2)
NDP: 14.10% (1)
Green: 2.63% (0)
Other: 0.27% (0)

With the constituency seats splits 5/1 the list seats go to the NDP and Conservatives.

Possible MPs:
St. Boniface--St. Vital--Elmwood: Dan Vandal
Winnipeg--Assiniboine: Doug Eyolfson or Jim Carr
Winnipeg--Birds Hill: Lawrence Toet
Winnipeg Centre: Robert-Falcon Ouellette
Winnipeg North--West St. Paul: Kevin Lamoureux
Winnipeg South: Terry Duguid
List: Steven Fletcher
List: Pat Martin





12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Earl's Canadian Electoral Reform Proposal Thread on: May 20, 2016, 08:21:01 am
I approve of this map and any map that gets rid of the stupid Central Nova and West Nova names. Tongue

Yes, I loathe those kinds of provincial directional names, so you won't be seeing me use them. I hope the names I used meet your approval.

For the most part yeah. One minor quibble is that Pictou isn't part of Cape Breton-Highland-Eastern Shore despite being roughly half of the riding. No worries though, it's still miles ahead of the most recent redistribution Tongue

Ah well, I'm trying to avoid having 4 place names in one riding title. Pictou is in the "Highland" tourist region of Nova Scotia, so it's  been covered Wink
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever broke the election law? on: May 19, 2016, 03:45:21 pm
No surprise that a 12 year old Republican would be an awful human being.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever broke the election law? on: May 19, 2016, 02:59:20 pm
Yes, probably for lots of little things. The cutest example though was letting my 5 year old daughter put my ballot in the ballot box in the last federal election. I know she had been denied that privilege in the previous provincial election.

I've done it multiple times with my parents and I'm seeing it all the time. Nobody ever complained about a kid putting a parent's ballot in the ballot box.

Right, but it might be against the law here. At least in provincial elections. Some poll clerks can be very anal about the rules.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever broke the election law? on: May 19, 2016, 02:28:59 pm
Yes, probably for lots of little things. The cutest example though was letting my 5 year old daughter put my ballot in the ballot box in the last federal election. I know she had been denied that privilege in the previous provincial election.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Earl's Canadian Electoral Reform Proposal Thread on: May 19, 2016, 11:20:23 am
Northern Saskatchewan

Same deal as Southern Saskatchewan. 7 seats, 5 constituency, 2 list. Quotient is 104,409.

Map:


Ridings:
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River
(Major communities: Meadow Lake, Nipawin, Tisdale, La Loche, La Ronge)
Population: 93,418 (-9.66%)
2015 result: Conservative

Battlefords--Lloydminster--Sask Valley
(Major communities: North Battleford, Lloydminster, Martensville, Battleford, Unity, Dalmeny)
Population: 101,950 (-1.41%)
2015 result: Conservative

Prince Albert--Humboldt--Dundurn
(Major communities: Prince Albert, Warman, Humboldt, Melfort, Rosthern)
Population: 98,602  (-4.65%)
2015 result: Conservative

Saskatoon West
(Saskatoon west of the South Saskatchewan River to Broadway St to Ruth St. to Lorne St)
Population: 110,276 (+6.64%)
2015 result: NDP

Saskatoon East
(Saskatoon east of the South Saskatchewan River to Broadway St to Ruth St. to Lorne St)
Population: 111,913 (+8.22%)
2015 result: Conservative


2015 results:
Conservative: 45.85% (entitled to 4 seats)
NDP: 28.79% (2)
Liberal: 22.91% (1)
Green: 1.87% (0)
Other: 0.58% (0)

With the constituency seats splits 4/1 the list seats go to the NDP and Liberals

Possible MPs:
Battlefords--Lloydminster--Sask Valley: Gerry Ritz
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River: Rob Clarke
Prince Albert--Humboldt--Dundurn: Randy Hoback
Saskatoon East: Brad Trost
Saskatoon West: Sheri Benson
List: Georgina Jolibois
List: Lawrence Joseph

And just like that, we would have 3 MPs elected who in real life ran in the same riding Tongue



17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you have voted for in 2004 Democratic Primaries on: May 19, 2016, 08:32:25 am
Embarrassingly, I supported Sharpton at the time. In hindsight, I would've backed Clark.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Nate Silver eats crow on: May 18, 2016, 07:30:49 pm
The New York elite bubble will do that to you
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: May 17, 2016, 08:16:11 pm
good policy, but very unpopular.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: May 17, 2016, 03:24:51 pm
My worst fear is that the only reform they go with, which is the worst possible "reform", is to adopt online voting.

May I ask why you are so opposed to the idea? Do you think it's going to be compromised or something?

Yeah, it's always a possibility. This is a good video that explains why it's a bad idea: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w3_0x6oaDmI
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: A Trump-type party in Canada on: May 17, 2016, 12:27:49 pm
It would probably be less outrightly racist (wouldn't suggest banning Muslims), but not that much. If it's anything like Ford Nation, it would do really well in the 905... or anywhere really where the sight of a person on a bicycle is an open invitation to declare war. Tongue
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: May 17, 2016, 12:24:35 pm
I disagree with that assessment. The Liberals would prefer it of course, but no other party would back them on it, so it would look bad if they pushed for a system that only they support.

What is most likely to happen is not much. The Liberals won't pursue IRV without another party supporting, so they will drop the issue, as most other systems would require boundary changes (see my thread) or increasing the size of parliament, and they would not likely do that. My worst fear is that the only reform they go with, which is the worst possible "reform", is to adopt online voting.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Earl's Canadian Electoral Reform Proposal Thread on: May 17, 2016, 10:02:27 am
Time for Saskatchewan.

I'm now done with the provinces that constitute regions in of themselves. Every other province will be divided in to list regions, starting with Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan has 14 seats, so the best way to divide the province is to have two regions of 7 seats each (North and South). A 7 seat region would have 2 list seats each, so both northern and southern Saskatchewan would have 5 constituency seats. In this post, I will just cover southern Saskatchewan.

It would have been easier to just divide Saskatchewan into two regions of 7 ridings each, but such a division would look rather ugly. So, I created my own line. It's more or less straight, but as you can see, I had to snake it around the Saskatoon CMA (metro area). The total population south of this line is 516,337, making the quotient for southern Saskatchewan 103,267.

Map:


Ridings:
Cypress Hills--Grasslands--Heartland
(Major communities: Swift Current, Kinderley, Assiniboia, Rosetown, Outlook, Maple Creek, Biggar, Shaunavon)
Population: 98,232 (-4.88%)
2015 result: Conservative

Sun Country--Parkland
(Major communities: Yorkton, Estevan, Weyburn, Melville, Moosomin, Esterhazy)
Population: 102,850 (-0.40%)
2015 result: Conservative

Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Qu'Appelle
(Major communities: Moose Jaw, Canora, Fort Qu'Appelle, Watrous, Kamsack, Indian Head, Wynyard)
Population: 104,699 (+1.39%)
2015 result: Conservative

Regina East
(Regina and Sherwood RM east of Hwy 6, Edenwold RM, Edenwold, Balgonie, Pilot Butte, White City)
Population: 101,840 (-1.38%)
2015 result: Liberal

Regina West
(Regina and Sherwood RM west of Hwy 6, Grand Coulee, Pense, Belle Plaine, Lumsden, Lumsden RM, Pense RM, Disley, Regina Beach, Buena Vista, Lumsden Beach)
Population: 108,716 (+5.28%)
2015 result: Conservative (by just 791 votes)

2015 results:
Conservative: 51.18% (entitled to 4 seats)
Liberal: 24.78% (2)
NDP: 21.51% (1)
Green: 2.31% (0)
Other: 0.21% (0)

Since the constituency split was 4/1, the NDP and Liberals both get one list seat each.

Possible MPs:
Cypress Hills--Grasslands--Heartland: David Anderson
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Qu'Appelle: Andrew Scheer (though he doesn't live in this district)
Regina East: Ralph Goodale
Regina West: Tom Lukiwski
Sun Country--Parkland: Robert Kitchen or Cathay Wagantall
List: Louis Browne
List: Erin Weir


24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: May 17, 2016, 08:21:43 am
If opt-in panels always over estimate the NDP, then why does ipsos have the NDP lower than any of the other pollsters? Hmmm?

Haha. What other pollsters? BTW... I do know my stuff. So have at 'er! Wink

Howabout the Insights West poll that was posted on this very thread on the previous page? Howabout every other poll published since January 2014?
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Earl's Canadian Electoral Reform Proposal Thread on: May 16, 2016, 08:44:59 pm
I approve of this map and any map that gets rid of the stupid Central Nova and West Nova names. Tongue

Yes, I loathe those kinds of provincial directional names, so you won't be seeing me use them. I hope the names I used meet your approval.

I'm using a GIS program for the maps (then I use Pain to draw the riding boundaries). The thin mauve boundaries are municipal & census tract boundaries. I haven't added a roads layer as that would crash the program.
I approve of this map and any map that gets rid of the stupid Central Nova and West Nova names. Tongue
I look forward to the undoing of the Barrie monstrosity.

Yeah, Barrie will most likely return to being a single district. For now...


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