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April 30, 2016, 03:49:14 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Manitoba election 2016 on: April 29, 2016, 08:46:04 am
I know this is called the "Atlas" Forum, but why all the interest in maps.  To quote Rita Johnson in her 1991 debate with Mike Harcourt (and Gordon Wilson) "we want the numbers, Mike."

And just like Mike Harcourt was back then, anybody who doesn't provide the numbers is "gutless."

Of course, if you disagree with me on this, that would just be "another classic example of why nothing ever gets done in the legislature Atlas Forum." 

This is an Atlas forum. If you don't like election maps, you can leave Tongue

Trend:



Anyone know what's up with the east-west difference in Winnipeg? Normally I think of Winnipeg as having more of a north-south division.

As mentioned, retiring incumbents have something to do with it, but also the east end of Winnipeg has been trending to the right federally as well (remember when Elmwood-Transcona unexpectedly went Conservative in 2011?) I suspect it's suburbanizing somewhat (though the area of Winnipeg that is expanding is in the SW which actually trended to the NDP), or wealthier people are moving in? Perhaps someone in Manitoba can answer this question better.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Manitoba election 2016 on: April 28, 2016, 11:48:34 am
Realized no one made a final map, so here it is (official results):

3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Age That You First Got Drunk on: April 28, 2016, 10:51:38 am
February 24, 2006. I was 19 (and a half), which is the legal age for such things here.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton says half her Cabinet will be women on: April 28, 2016, 10:48:35 am
the epic FF Justin Trudeau.


No. Just, no.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: April 28, 2016, 09:17:06 am
So the Libs in Newfoundland are planning to shut down half of the province's libraries and are putting a tax on books. Lord tunderin' jesus b'y.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: April 27, 2016, 03:52:43 pm
Well, her dad is going to have a lot more time to help her this time around.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone IV - Hungover on: April 25, 2016, 01:47:20 pm
Thanks for the well wishes Smiley

It's a major life adjustment, but so far I'm managing.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update for Everyone IV - Hungover on: April 25, 2016, 11:42:49 am
I was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes last week Sad
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (nxt event: TDSB trustee by-elxn: June 20) on: April 25, 2016, 08:52:59 am
Thanks, Poirot. We've missed some Quebec municipal by-elections, but there are still some coming up:

May 1: Sainte-Adèle mayoral by-election (and 2 council by-elections)
May 15: Council by-elections in Baie-Comeau and Val-d'Or
May 22: Brownsburg-Chatham mayoral by-election (and 2 council by-elections)
10  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Best system of election for the legislative branch on: April 24, 2016, 07:23:05 pm
Mixed. Anyone who voted FPTP hates democracy and should be monitored by the CIA.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (nxt event: TDSB trustee by-elxn: June 20) on: April 23, 2016, 07:24:57 am
What difference does it make whether those school board byelections are on the same day or not? They are in two totally different parts of the city, there are no cost savings i can think of...

- You can share advertising costs. One ad with information on both by-elections, instead of two separate ads.

While at the subject,
You might need to change the title since Winnipeg has 3 separate school board by-elections for Saturday June 11/2016.  
If you are wondering, Winnipeg has 6+ separate school divisions.

Two of vacancies  were the results of the recent provincial election, and one was the result of a trustee being fired after moving to another school division.

- Louis Riel  - Ward 2 (Colleen Mayer, won the the St Vital seat for the PCs)
- St James James - Assiniboia - King Edward Deer Loge Ward (Scott Johnston, won the St James for the PCs)
- River-East Transcona - Ward 3 (Wayne Ritcher fired for moving to another school division)

Thanks for this. For the title, I'm only including "major" local by-elections. I'm excluding school board elections for all cities except Toronto because school board by-elections tend to get less than 5% turnout while in Toronto they get a bit of a attention for some reason.  (I also excluded a by-election on Monday in Seguin Twp., Ontario, pop. 4,000)

However, that's not to say we can't discuss these Winnipeg school board by-elections. Why does Winnipeg have six boards to begin with?
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: April 2016 Federal Election on: April 22, 2016, 09:28:06 pm
2) cxs018
1) Truman
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: April 22, 2016, 07:24:41 pm
If Canada was warmer than the US instead of colder I would probably be looking into dual citizenship Tongue

It's called a coat.
I'm talking about sunshine and being able to sunbathe on a hammock in your backyard and never deal with shoveling snow or driving in snow

You know, it does get hot here too.

As for the snow, yeah, you live in New England. It's not much worse in Canada. Plus, we have Vancouver.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (nxt event: TDSB trustee by-elxn: June 20) on: April 22, 2016, 07:22:54 pm
Two more costly by-elections for the TDSB and they won't even be on the same day.

really? could they not be? the Toronto-Centre one has not been called. Who calls them?

http://www1.toronto.ca/wps/portal/contentonly?vgnextoid=21193fab14970410VgnVCM10000071d60f89RCRD

Toronto Centre: June 20
York Centre: July 25
15  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II on: April 22, 2016, 02:46:20 pm
If Canada was warmer than the US instead of colder I would probably be looking into dual citizenship Tongue

It's called a coat.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2016 (nxt event: TDSB trustee by-elxn: June 20) on: April 22, 2016, 02:44:32 pm
Two more costly by-elections for the TDSB and they won't even be on the same day.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: April 22, 2016, 01:59:54 pm
Party pooper Sad
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: April 22, 2016, 11:03:53 am
Stop ruining our fun, DL. This isn't the first time we've heard about a REB candidacy. Her story is right out of a movie; I think she would attract a lot of attention. Of course, she may not be able to carry herself in a national campaign (yet), so it would be a gamble. But there's a reason why she was the only NDP MP to see a positive swing in her riding. You can't ignore that kind of hard data.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Manitoba election 2016 on: April 22, 2016, 11:00:33 am
Trend:

20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Manitoba election 2016 on: April 22, 2016, 10:20:06 am
Swing map:



Despite losing the seat, the NDP still managed a positive average swing in Kewatinook thanks to the PC vote tanking there.

Some notes:
-Large swings to the PCs in rural NDP ridings, especially those with no incumbent (Dauphin, Dawson Trail).
-Large swings to the PCs in Winnipeg in NDP ridings with no incumbents (Trancona, Southdale, Assiniboia)
-Smaller PC swings in safe PC seats (Agassiz, Morden-Winkler, Steinbach)
-Smaller PC swings in safe NDP seats in Winnipeg

21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: April 21, 2016, 07:46:53 pm

OMGOMG
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Manitoba election 2016 on: April 20, 2016, 07:44:19 am
The NDP was supposed to lose Winnipeg by more than 15 points, but ended up losing by only 12. That would explain their over performance in seats there.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Manitoba election 2016 on: April 20, 2016, 07:42:19 am
Kewatinook is not that big of a surprise, considering the Liberals won it in the federal election. There are some reserves in the south of the riding that went like 90% Liberal.

Thompson was not a surprise either, most models showed it as being close. I guess it is somewhat of a surprise in that it was the only riding the PCs wrote off in their last minute push in the north (and turned out to be the only seat they won in the north)

Kevin Lamoureux is VERY popular in Winnipeg, so no surprise his daughter won Burrows. I wish I had payed more attention to that race.

NDP did a bit better in Winnipeg than expected, so kudos on them. Selinger lost a lot of his support, but won because his opposition was divided (as predicted).
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Manitoba election 2016 on: April 19, 2016, 09:21:18 pm
Greens off the board now.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Manitoba election 2016 on: April 19, 2016, 09:16:18 pm
Selinger holds his seat.
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