Sorry, I didn't know what you meant by "a candidate like Jagmeet Singh". I would hope that "a candidate like Jagmeet Singh" (the way you've described) could win anywhere.  I'm not sure what makes Ottawa South so different that it would be especially appealing to charismatic candidates like Jagmeet.

Very few Sikhs here, so no. Plus, Ottawa South is post-war suburbia which is very different than his riding, which newer suburbia. Most Ottawa South residents wouldn't even consider the riding to be suburban, at least not the northern half of the riding. The southern half is much newer.

Ottawa South is mostly white, despite the high percentage of Arabs, so running a visible minority isn't necessarily an advantage.

As for NDP strengths in this riding, it does come the multi-ethnic poorer areas. We won the most polls in recent memory in the 2011 election by winning such areas. Before that our only recent poll win was in 2004 with Monia Mazigh winning one poll in Heron Gate.

Heron Gate is probably the NDP's best neighbourhood. It is pretty much one large, high density community housing development. It is pretty diverse, the language breakdown (which I just put on Wikipedia) is  30% English, 10% French, Arabic (19%), Somali (11%), Persian (3%) Creoles (2%), Nepali (2%), Spanish (2%), Urdu (2%), Amharic (1%) and Chinese (1%).

If we run Wali Farah again, he will play well here- and could win it.

Someone voted Liberal. And now we're back to where we were before. Foster trails by 111 votes.

And it will likely take a lot of non PoI votes to get them off the 31 seat maximum. Their worst riding is Leeds South, where they lead by ~850 votes.

It's not so much Muslim as it is Arab. (specifically Lebanese). Many of the Arabs here are Christian. Christian Arabs tend to be less NDP friendly. There are some muslim pockets however, like Heron Gate or any of the community housing areas.

Any reason why you've excluded Canada?

I suppose it shouldn't be that easy for us Canucks to escape

One more Tory vote (Total now at 27)

This means the Tories have doubled their seat total!

(change from last update)

Liberals: 167 (-2)
PoI: 31
McCarthyite: 5
Tory: 2 (+1)
Others: 8 (+1)

For the record, the new Tory riding is York, NB where George Eulas Foster enjoys a 25 vote lead. He might be better suited for leadership than Flavien Dupont.

Then again, the ONDP did tend to do generally better in the Ottawa area (and elsewhere in Eastern Ontario, like Cornwall) in the 70s--there was a fairly strong Cassidy/Gigantes machine going...

Yeah, Gigantes winning where she did is still a marvel to me. Her riding, Carleton East contained mostly suburbs at the time. She got elected in 1975 thanks to a 3-way split. But the NDP back then was generally stronger across the whole province (provincially anyways). But it has never been that strong in Eastern Ontario, even back then.

I don't have the poll breakdowns to prove it, but Ottawa South containing the Glebe and Old Ottawa South and Old Ottawa East is a huge reason why the NDP did "well" in Ottawa South 1967-1995.  Elections Ontario has the poll break down from 1995 at least, so I could look at the numbers (unfortunately, their chart isn't very copy and pasteable).

It's funny, I've seen my Wiki maps pop up all over the place, including in one of my university classes (a professor used a map I made on Wikipedia in a lecture slide).

Sounds like you're not a big fan of Bergeron, Max. Which party do you support?

According to this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottawa_South_%28provincial_electoral_district%29 back in the 70s and 80s and in 1990, the NDP would routinely get 25% to as much as 32% in Ottawa South

Yes, because the riding consisted of the Glebe and Old Ottawa South, two very left wing neighbourhoods. However, since 1999, the riding has been entirely southeast of the Rideau River.

This is clearly a copy, I don't see the differences Inks cited.

PM Earl about it - I think he has contributed a fair amount of stuff to Wikipedia and knows some of the ins and outs of the site.

I could help out, but I don't deal with Wki Commons at all. Inks is probably the best person to talk to.

Speaking of which, I've noticed my outline maps pop up all over Wikipedia. But that's ok, because the originals are there too.

Remember that before the 1990s, the Tories were the centrist party, and the Liberals were the right wing party in Ontario.

Who will be Montreal mayor now? Or will Cowell-Poitras just serve as acting mayor until the Fall?

Aldready discussing this in the Canada General Discussion thread.

Boucher de Boucherville was an Ultramontane Catholic. I doubt that he would be welcomed as a federal Tory leader unless the party wanted to transform itself into the Catholic Crazies of Quebec party.

Fair enough. Senate WASP it is then.

Suggestions are welcome ;-)

Are you guys ready for the current seat totals?

Liberals: 169
PoI: 31
McCarthyite: 5
Tory: 1 (thanks to having one acclaimed candidate)
Others: 7

1)Do you have an estimate of an actual PV that would get those seats? IRL even if every POI candidate got 100% of the vote, they wouldn't do as well as our poll.

2) Are you going to use the acclaimed Tory as the next leader (Flavien Dupont I think) or bring someone in from outside?

I'm using a proportional model, which means that total vote in each riding will not reflect real life, but the total for all candidates remains the same. So, I have taken the amount of votes cast in the 1896 election in RL and divided them up based on the vote total here (removing 'others') This has meant that the PoI have results that are unrealistic (the worst offender is Ontario North where they area ahead 22836 to 757). If you want realistic numbers, which perhaps I should strive for, I can use those numbers as a ratio of the actual vote totals in the riding. This would give us a more reasonable 4506 to 149 result in Ontario North.

As for Mr. Dupont, I suppose he would become leader, but then there is the issue of him dying in 1898. At which point, we're going to have to scour the Senate for leadership materiel

Ah gotcha. If there's no one good in the Senate, this guy is Premier of Quebec.

How customary was it back then to go outside the caucus for leaders? And why would the Premier of Quebec want to take such a job?

Are you guys ready for the current seat totals?

Liberals: 169
PoI: 31
McCarthyite: 5
Tory: 1 (thanks to having one acclaimed candidate)
Others: 7

1)Do you have an estimate of an actual PV that would get those seats? IRL even if every POI candidate got 100% of the vote, they wouldn't do as well as our poll.

2) Are you going to use the acclaimed Tory as the next leader (Flavien Dupont I think) or bring someone in from outside?

I'm using a proportional model, which means that total vote in each riding will not reflect real life, but the total for all candidates remains the same. So, I have taken the amount of votes cast in the 1896 election in RL and divided them up based on the vote total here (removing 'others') This has meant that the PoI have results that are unrealistic (the worst offender is Ontario North where they area ahead 22836 to 757). If you want realistic numbers, which perhaps I should strive for, I can use those numbers as a ratio of the actual vote totals in the riding. This would give us a more reasonable 4506 to 149 result in Ontario North.

As for Mr. Dupont, I suppose he would become leader, but then there is the issue of him dying in 1898. At which point, we're going to have to scour the Senate for leadership materiel

1) Harper
2) Merkel
3) Letta
4) Abe
5) Obama
6) Cameron
7) Hollande
Putin

Well, that answers that question

Are you guys ready for the current seat totals?

Liberals: 169
PoI: 31
McCarthyite: 5
Tory: 1 (thanks to having one acclaimed candidate)
Others: 7

Probably stays Liberal.

Yeah, I think so.  The Tories don't have a well known candidate. (Neither do the Liberals for that matter, no matter what anyone says).  This is just how things stand pre-campaign. Just you wait.

I'm almost afraid of what the Liberals are going to do to our campaign. Stolen signs might not even be the beginning of it. :S

Yay! Finally, a league that matters. Although, I am pretty familiar with the geographic history of the NHL. It would have been neat if you had gone back to 1893 showing all the early amateur leagues that competed for the cup.

It should be noted that the Liberals have a huge machine here, and that might be worth a few extra points. 

Forum has a poll of 690 people in Ottawa South that has the PCs leading with 37% to OLP at 34% and the NDP at 22%....that's actually a very high NDP number in that riding.

Oh good, I can finally comment on a public poll

Those numbers are very good for the NDP And I must re-iterate my "heh" at Eric Grenier.

I do know with the close race at hand, the Liberals are going to be particularly nasty and go after us. They have been quite notorious for that in past elections. Especially if they believe we are 22%.

So what happens if a party with no leader wins?

In this case they aren't running in enough ridings to win more than 15% of the seats. But generally speaking, they'd select someone within the new caucus or from outside. Often happened IRL in the early '20s with the United Farmers and other protest parties.

Yes, assuming they form official opposition, I'll pick one of the two candidates who were elected in real life.

As for next election, if they form OO then I feel compelled to keep them on. I will do some research to find how many of their candidates also ran in 1900 (under other banners) and count that towards the next election. I'll merge in a couple of Labour candidates if I have to. I'm looking for candidates in 5% of the ridings as a threshold.

If that can't be done, I'll make up some story about a deal with Laurier or something.