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April 19, 2015, 04:27:48 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: April 18, 2015, 10:28:04 pm
Yeah, the rest of the riding isn't that Conservative at all, really. Maybe Louis-Hebert is a better fit after all.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: PEI General Election 2015 on: April 18, 2015, 04:04:30 pm
Let's hope the NDP doesn't follow the same strategy as they did in NB where they didn't target any specific ridings, and ended up empty handed.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: April 18, 2015, 04:02:51 pm
Well, half of it is, and those exurban Gatineau communities are fertile territory for the NDP. The riding also contains the village of Wakefield which is basically full of aging hippies.

While it is only a small part of the riding (the riding should probably have a better name), the Pontiac MRC is very conservative (very Anglo- basically a continuation of Renfrew County across the river), and so it gives the riding a higher than usual Tory floor for a Quebec riding.
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Where Do You Rank on the Male Social Hierarchy? on: April 18, 2015, 12:45:42 pm
Beta negative sounds like your typical libertarian.

5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: April 18, 2015, 12:29:42 pm
Yeah, the Tories barely won it in 2006, and lost it in 2008. I would think Pontiac would be a better fit.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: April 18, 2015, 12:21:28 pm
Well, L-H conforms more with his original provincial turf than Pontiac does...

Ahh, good point. Forgot he was an MNA, but that was over 20 years ago. He served as a Gatineau City councillor more recently, so I figured he has more connections to the Outaouais.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: PEI General Election 2015 on: April 18, 2015, 12:11:36 pm
The Greens are running a near full slate. First time in three elections where the NDP is running more candidates than the Greens.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - 2015 on: April 18, 2015, 12:10:04 pm

Weird; doesn't think he can win Pontiac back?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election, 2015 on: April 18, 2015, 12:09:13 pm
What happens if the Liberals are shut out of legislature?

It means there is a Trudeau leading the federal party.

I'm not trying to conflate the federal and provincial parties, but the polling I've seen has the federal Liberals far out-polling their provincial namesake. From what I've seen, the federal Liberals are polling at roughly 25% in Alberta. Based on current polling in Alberta, the federal Liberals may very well outnumber the provincial Liberals after both new elections have been held, which incidentally hasn't happened since Pierre Trudeau's first election in 1968.

I was just pointing out that the last time the Liberals were shut out in Alberta in a provincial election, Pierre Trudeau was Prime Minister.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election, 2015 on: April 17, 2015, 04:36:10 pm
NDP & PC running full slates, Wildrose not running against Notley and Liberals are running 56 candidates (more or less). Alberta Party running in less than half.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: April 2015 At-large Senate Election on: April 17, 2015, 12:44:23 pm
[3] Blair2015 of Massachusetts
Labor Party

[5] Cris of Kansas
Civic Renewal

[1] Lief of Vermont
Labor Party

[6] North Carolina Yankee of North Carolina
Federalist Party

[2] Poirot of Quebec
Independent

[4] Polnut of Massachusetts
The People's Party
12  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs Thread (final bracket set) on: April 17, 2015, 12:41:33 pm
Can we talk about PK Subban not getting disciplined for that slash on Stone though? Broke the dude's wrist. There has to be at least one game for that. I know he got a misconduct to begin with, but you can't just break a dude's wrist like that.
Oh, come on now. Subban was not intending to harm Stone. He's not that kind of player. We're not talking Matt Cooke here... I maintain that he was trying to either break Stone's stick or move it out of position. Stupid choice by Subban and I get the 5 minute penalty, but a game misconduct/the suspension proposed by some fans is excessive. Anyway, Stone kind of overreacted by jumping as if a sniper hit him. Hell, he returned at the end of the game and participated in a scrum. He came back and probably deepened the injury. It clearly wasn't that serious. If you ask me, the slash in the Rangers game was just as bad, but didn't go punished.

Also, here's my prediction:

EAST
Montreal vs Ottawa
Tampa vs Detroit
New York Rangers vs Pittsburgh
New York Islanders vs Washington

WEST
St Louis vs Minnesota
Chicago vs Nashville
Anaheim vs Winnipeg
Calgary vs Vancouver

You're not biased at all are you, vivaportugalhabs
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: If you had to choose one of these labels to describe yourself... on: April 17, 2015, 12:39:22 pm
True leftist, I guess.
14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs Thread (final bracket set) on: April 17, 2015, 09:28:32 am
..at least your coverage isn't headed by a well known outed Habs fan Sad

15  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs Thread (final bracket set) on: April 17, 2015, 09:26:26 am
lol nhl network
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will there ever be another peacetime president? on: April 17, 2015, 08:15:18 am
Typically speaking being a "peacetime President" isn't something you choose.


Reagan could have chosen not to invade Granada.


I had no idea the US invaded Spain!
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Inappropriate content on the forum on: April 17, 2015, 06:43:16 am
Those kinds of threads will be all over the place with Update gone. Get ready for the deluge.

Yep. The great stabilizer is gone, so anything can happen now.

Remember when people were complaining about Update taking up too much space in the FC board? At least those threads were about real issues. People have no idea how awful this board is going to become post-Update.

[Update Executive Producer Eraserhead is led out into the courtyard by Atlas forum moderators, where he will soon be burned at the stake.]

Dave: Eraserhead, you have been called the King of Forum Community.  The Atlas forum only has one king.  Bend the knee.  I promise you mercy.

Kneel and live.

thanks,
Dave

Eraserhead: This was my home for many years.  I wish you good fortune, in the flame wars to come.


Who will be the Jon Snow in this situation?
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election, 2015 on: April 17, 2015, 06:38:06 am
I would never stay home, even if it meant voting Liberal. Usually there's a fringe candidate I would back before I would have to take such drastic action. Of course living in Ontario where the ridings are bigger, there's less chance of having to make such a choice, but ironically more fringe candidates to choose from.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: RIP UPDATE on: April 16, 2015, 05:14:27 pm
Bushie is back?

RIP Bushie.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election, 2015 on: April 16, 2015, 03:24:04 pm
How do you plan to distribute the Liberal and AB vote when they inevitably fail to nominate candidates in about half the ridings? If the Liberals are polling at ~12% then around 4% of that will have no Liberal candidate to vote for!

If the Liberals are still polling at 12% after the candidate deadline, and they're only running in half of the ridings, then I would expect a sudden surge in my model in every seat the Liberals are running in. One would *hope* that a respondent wouldn't tell a pollster they're voting Liberal if they do not have a Liberal candidate to vote for.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election, 2015 on: April 16, 2015, 02:58:01 pm
Ok guys, here's my first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/2015-alberta-election-projection-1.html

22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election, 2015 on: April 16, 2015, 02:00:36 pm
What happens if the Liberals are shut out of legislature?

It means there is a Trudeau leading the federal party.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015 on: April 16, 2015, 01:58:19 pm
Endorsements from Gretzky and now Modi?  Look out for the Brown train!
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Alberta General Election, 2015 on: April 16, 2015, 10:03:20 am
Most Liberals will vote PC in a PC vs. Wildrose race. That much is obvious, isn't it? If they can't stand Prentice, they'll stay home or vote NDP / AP / Green
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the (hypothetical) %-results of Hillary vs. GOPers in your state/country on: April 16, 2015, 06:53:14 am
Hillary would win Canada 70-30 probably.
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