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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: Today at 08:19:23 am
Worth noting for those who advance the myth that Mulcair conquered a "no-hope" riding in his byelection that Outremont was the NDP's best QC seat for 5 consecutive federal elections before that...

Except as you can see, the NDP had never won a seat before in Quebec, outside of a by-election in 1990.

Of course, Outremont was their best shot at winning a seat, but a long shot at that.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 28, 2015, 04:10:34 pm
This is the only thing on the internet I can find about Duncan Graham:
http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Include=Y&Language=E&rid=158&Search=Det

When he ran again in 1974 he fell to just 3% of the vote!

I'm pretty sure that is a typo in the database and he got no where near that many votes. Notice that if you add up the number of votes cast in Compton in 1968, 1972 and 1974 - in 1972 there are about 10,000 extra votes!

Yep, smells fishy to me too. That database is full of errors.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 28, 2015, 07:10:29 am
Ipsos: 33/30/29.

Interesting because Ipsos/Reid usually gets results that favor the Conservatives.

If polls continue to show similar results such as these, I wonder if it will decrease the incidence of strategic voting as people will think that even if the Conservatives win the most seats, they won't be able to form a government.

If that is the case, it would make sense for the Conservatives to not bring up the coalition thing or the 'party that wins the most seats is the only party entitled to form a government' lie, while it makes sense for the NDP to bring up the notion that the Liberals might back the Conservatives in power.

Despite correcting his recollections of the Beauce riding, I'd sincerely be most interested in hearing Hatman's take on this.

I'm still wrapping my brain around the implications of the Conservatives being in third place. I'm not so sure they are yet, but they are at least in a statistical tie with the Liberals.

It seems that east of Ontario, the Tory decline is helping the NDP, while west of Ontario it is going to the Liberals.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 27, 2015, 03:48:28 pm
The Beauce and thereabouts are historically friendly to right-wing parties, but it would be fallacious to act as though it were a Tory stronghold. It was barely a decade ago that the Liberals beat the Bloc by less than 2300 votes there while the Tories lagged behind at barely 17%. It would certainly go NDP in the right election.

They're nationalists, so I can see them voting Bloc, but that doesn't mean they're open to voting for a social democratic federalist party. Maybe through osmosis they will vote NDP in the future, but not this election.

ETA: Also recall that the Liberal/BQ races were back when the right wing was split between the discredited Tories and the Francophobe Reform/Alliance.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 27, 2015, 02:21:22 pm
Keep in mind that Megantic-Erable was Christian Paradis's seat and he was very personally popular. Its possible that with him out of the picture - all bets are off

That's why Beauce is the safest Tory seat in Quebec.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 27, 2015, 08:34:47 am
NDP polling higher in MB/SK than in BC also strikes as a bit odd to say the least.

However, we've now seen a few polls with quite a surge for the NDP in Quebec, haven't we ? I think it's been 3 showing them over 50%. Would that make for a perfect sweep there ?

I can't see the NDP winning Beauce or Mount Royal. Saint-Laurent is probably safe too, as are some of the other Chaudiere-Appalache ridings.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 27, 2015, 06:51:14 am
lol Forum:

NDP: 40
Lib: 30
Cons: 23

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-reach-of-majority-new-poll-suggests.html
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: MA: Abortion Liberalization Act (FINAL VOTE) on: August 26, 2015, 09:40:21 pm
Abstain
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: MA: Abortion Liberalization Act (Motion for Final Vote) on: August 26, 2015, 10:17:57 am
BUT MAH MEN'S RIGHTS

We get it, you're pro life. This bill is not about implementing the beliefs of the pro-life movement. Quite the opposite.

What does the pro choice movement believe? That a woman has the choice of what to do with her body, which includes the fetus inside her.

That means:
A) If a woman is old enough to be pregnant, she is old enough to have the choice of what do with the fetus inside her. Even if she is a minor. (18 is an arbitrary age anyways; for issues like this, biology is much less arbitrary)
B) Since this doesn't effect the father's body in any way, what he thinks is moot.

I also believe this means that a woman has the right to have an abortion beyond the 20th week, but this belief does not have the majority support in this assembly.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 26, 2015, 10:08:43 am
So Hatman, when are going to see some of those sweet, sweet EKOS numbers?

Friday, I believe.

The Greens are not at 33% on Vancouver Island, folks. They are doing quite well there, yes, but not 33%. They won't even win Victoria.
Yeah, in Al's absence, I will be the one advising caution against small local sub-samples today.

He is usually cautions us against constituency polling. Vancouver Island is a bit bigger than that. But yes, we should pay attention to sample sizes (a number mysteriously missing from their tables).
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Lottery question on: August 26, 2015, 07:30:39 am
No (understands basic math)
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 26, 2015, 07:28:08 am
The Greens are not at 33% on Vancouver Island, folks. They are doing quite well there, yes, but not 33%. They won't even win Victoria.
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Europe-Middle East-Africa Refugee Crisis General Thread on: August 25, 2015, 06:49:33 pm
Despite the mega-influx of asylum seekers (80.000 this year), there are also examples of how it can be done:

http://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/helfen-als-selbstverstaendlichkeit-23-jaehrige-nimmt-30-syrer-auf/147.508.519

A 23-year old woman from a town in my district decided to take up 30 asylum seekers from Syria recently and housed them in the hotel of her parents.

Now, the (Muslim) Syrian men are helping to renovate the local (Catholic) church, voluntarily:



...

So, it's not all bad.

If you treat people like human beings instead of a swarm of locusts, than of course they will feel indebted to the community that does so. Imagine that!
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Paraguay successful at denying 11-year old incest victim abortion on: August 25, 2015, 06:10:12 pm
People with penises are out of touch when it comes to women's issues. News at 11.
15  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: MA: Abortion Liberalization Act (Voting on Amendment) on: August 25, 2015, 11:18:01 am
Aye
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 25, 2015, 10:17:31 am
As someone without much knowledge on Canada police car can someone tell me the parties from most to least conservqtive?
I'm assuming you mean "Canadian politics", and though I might not be the most knowledgable, I could certainly fill you in.

Most conservative:
Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) - standard right-wing party, perhaps not as right-wing as the US Republicans but to the right of European conservatives, has held power since 2006 but did not win a majority in Parliament until 2011 (after another election produced another minority Conservative government in 2008), currently polling about 10 points lower than its 2011 totals, definitely feeling the pressure of "Harper fatigue" after nearly 10 years in power.
Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) - centrist "natural governing party", has ruled Canada for most of its independent history, most recently having won an election in 2004 (albeit with a minority government), currently the 3rd party after the rise of the NDP in 2011 and appears poised to maintain that position, but with significant gains.
New Democratic Party (NDP) - center-left to left-wing social democrats, historically the 3rd party but rose to Official Opposition in 2011 after riding the "orange wave", currently leading the polls and poised to become the largest party in Parliament for the first time in history.
Bloc Quebecois (BQ) - socialist party advocating independence for Quebec, previously held most Quebec seats in Parliament but was reduced to just 4 in 2011 (thanks to the orange wave), and inner turmoil since 2011 and tiredness with the separatist cause in general appears set to demolish the party once and for all.
Green Party - standard greenies, probably going to keep their 1 seat in BC but not expand much elsewhere.
Least Conservative

If anyone more well-versed notices any mistakes or such please feel free to correct me.

2015 Political Compass - http://www.politicalcompass.org/canada2015

- The Canadian Greens actually fall slightly to the right and on the authoritarian side in Canada, a real oddity since most greens tend to be more left wing then the major left-of-centre parties
- The Bloq would be considered the most Centrist of all the parties, almost falling in the dead middle but just slightly Left and Libertarian in their views...
- The Liberals like to campaign and call themselves centrist, but they are really a centre-right party, falling both under Right wing and Authoritarian. They are pretty similar in where they lay to the UK Labour party and the Aussie Labor party... how far have those parties drifted eh
- The NDP is still Social Democratic, progressive albeit less Socialist. They are still Left and Libertarian, best example is just a slightly more centrist Plaid Cymru.


That website loves to put as many parties as possible in the top right corner. I'm surprised they still have the NDP in the lower left (albeit barely).
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2015 on: August 24, 2015, 07:56:21 pm
I expect Wildrose will win it, which is too bad considering Notley needs someone with experience to add to her cabinet, and Hawkesworth has more experience than most of her caucus.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2015 on: August 24, 2015, 10:36:29 am
There will be two by-elections in Quebec. Today, Gilles Ouimet (PLQ) resigned. He was the MNA for Fabre (Laval West). Margeurite Blais (also PLQ) resigned last week. She was the MNA for St-Henri--Ste-Anne (Montreal Southwest).
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 24, 2015, 08:27:47 am
This doesn't belong here, but TnVolunteer's email was hacked.  I just received a pornographic message from his email.  Don't believe there was a virus in it.

There is a thread about it in the Atlas Forum.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 24, 2015, 06:53:15 am
Something tells me Selinger will not be campaigning Tongue
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 23, 2015, 09:46:32 pm
White people living in heavily Chinese ridings are more likely to vote Liberal than in other parts of the GTA.

This doesn't seem right. What is the evidence for this?

I was actually thinking of the provincial election. The Whiter southwest corner of the riding went solidly Liberal, while the Tories did much better in the rest of the riding, which is a majority Chinese. But, this could have had to do with Wynne's sexuality.

Federally, there wasn't much of a pattern in either 2011 or the subsequent by-election in terms of racial voting patterns.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 22, 2015, 10:30:07 pm
Also, East Asians are increasingly voting Conservative in Ontario. But, the two most Chinese ridings still went Liberal in 2011. 

Though the Conservatives won the more heavily Chinese sections of Markham (i.e. Markham-Unionville in the present distribution).


Same with Agincourt, I think. I'm trying to figure out why White people living in heavily Chinese ridings are more likely to vote Liberal than in other parts of the GTA. Maybe they're more tolerant?
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2015 Federal Election - At-Large Senate on: August 22, 2015, 10:27:37 pm
[ 5] Altsomn Stmarken (JoMCaR) of Maine
Federalist Party

[ 4] Cris of Kansas
Civic Renewal

[ 1 ] Evergreen of Maine
Northeast National Party

[ 2 ] Kalwejt of Ohio
Labor Party

[6] NC Yankee of North Carolina

[3] Write in: Harry Truman
Federalist Party
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 22, 2015, 09:11:01 am
Even in 2011?

Many South Asians voted NDP in Ontario, especially in Scarborough-Rouge River and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Historically those are Liberal ridings, and outside of those two ridings, I think most South Asians in Ontario voted Liberal or Conservative.

Also, East Asians are increasingly voting Conservative in Ontario. But, the two most Chinese ridings still went Liberal in 2011.

In BC, some South Asians still vote Liberal. Those in Surrey tend to vote NDP, but in Vancouver South they vote Liberal. In Newton-North Delta, they were more divided.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread) on: August 21, 2015, 05:57:40 pm
Out of curiosity, how do Canadian Asians vote? Don't they break pretty Liberal

Depends on whether they're East or South Asians and whether or not they live in BC or Ontario.

East Asians vote Conservative in BC, Liberal in Ontario
South Asians vote NDP in BC, Liberal in Ontario
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