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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: July 03, 2015, 06:42:02 pm

I guess the discussion on Danish politics now returns to the Great Nordic thread.

For general discussion, yes. But this was a fairly interesting election and as thread creator I reserve the right to sum up the election after I get back to DK on the 14th.. Looking at trends, big picture etc.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: July 03, 2015, 06:40:56 pm
The Social Democrats voted for Kjaesgaard? God, this party...

SocDem votes for the speaker the majority support, SPP usual do this too. The reason SPP voted against Kjærsgaard was not because her politics, but because they doubted she had the objectivity needed to represent the entire parliament. The Red-Greens voted against because she represented the right, but they saw little difference between her or a potential Venstre candidate for speaker. Alternative voted against her, because they discovered their voters got angry, when they said they would support the majority's candidate in this case Kjærsgaard.

...and now you can throw a hissy fit over the fact that SocDem simply follow tradition, instead of making a meaningless but symbolic stand with no positive practical effect. The Danish parliament are not the hyperpartisan parliament you see in other countries, the weak minority governments make cooperation necessary and it pays not to burn bridges by going after the opponents personal.

Well, if the entire Red Bloc had voted against Pia K. it would have forced a vote where just one defector could have toppled her. It would have been interesting to see if party discipline had been strong enough. Naser Khader would have to personally secure her election (among other things). Little doubt he would have done it, but it would be a nice test.

Even ignoring that I think SD as a minimum should have abstained like SPP and Social Liberals.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: July 01, 2015, 04:55:29 pm
LA has declared their support for Pia K. as Speaker and the Cons support her too. The payment is the chairmanship of the powerful Finance Committee to LA Deputy Chairman Simon Emil Ammitzboell. Pia K. is now almost certain to become Speaker now. Something that would have seemed impossible only 5 years ago. The four Deputy Speakers will be from SD, Libs, LA and Red Greens. A first for both LA and the Red Greens.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal on: June 29, 2015, 08:27:44 pm
The EU is definitely not the US. This is what happens in the US. We subsidize Mississippi year after year. The EU doesn't subsidize Greece.  But somehow, I think a lot of Greece bashers are fine with subsidizing Mississippi.

Quote
The way we deal with this kind of problem in the US is we have fiscal transfers. Mississippi and Alabama never really pay back what they owe California and New York, and that's okay. So you can see the crisis in Greece two ways: you can believe it’s a failure because the Greeks are reneging on their debts or because Germany is not treating Greece like the US treats Mississippi, as a state they have to look after.

http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8863313/theres-a-simple-solution-to-greeces-problems-but-europe-wont-try-it

Well, the EU is a confederation (of sorts) of sovereign states and not a federation, so there is no obligation to subsidize failed states.

Ironically Mississippi and Alabama would be bankrupt if the US was a confederacy.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sri Lanka Parliamentary Election - August 17, 2015 on: June 28, 2015, 09:51:09 pm
I can see Simfan has made a new thread avbout this election, but it should be merged into this one.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 28, 2015, 09:48:11 pm
Reintroducing Hjort as MoF seems like a mistake.  He is yesterdays man and damaged goods and the party has younger people capable of doing the job.

Five women is pathetic - even given it is the Libs we are talking about. They should be able to find more - especially if they had included more non-MPs. Wonder if Loekke tried to lure Lykke Friis back.

It is also a clear middle finger to Kristian Jensen. While it may be prestigious to be Minister of Foreign Affairs (Deputy PM is a ludicrous title), he would have had much more real power as MoF - and it would have been a more obvious post for a man with his experience and background.

Kjaersgaard vs. HTS is interesting. It will test the 90 seat majority right from the start. I doubt LA and Cons can seriously vote against Pia K. It would undermine their relationship to DPP before Blue Bloc has even started to govern.

I had expected HTA to simply resign her seat and move to the UK. Maybe do some consultancy work.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What makes a country support/oppose nuclear? on: June 26, 2015, 06:41:39 pm
Cranberry's latest series as you may have seen, had a wholly unrealistic result: a landslide victory (in Austria) for nuclear power. And that got me thinking. In the UK, Canada, the US, France and most of Scandinavian there is a fairly ephemeral movement opposing nukes; but they have never received significant attention from the public. But in, say, German speaking countries the opposition is persistent, strong and influential enough to swing elections. Why is this?

Of the countries in Scandinavia only Sweden got nuclear power (and Finland if you use the term more broadly), so in general there is not that much to protest against (though not having any didn't stop the Danes from complaining about Swedish nuclear plants..). Further Sweden had a referendum in 1980, the outcome of which was that we should get rid of our nuclear plants. So wouldn't say that the opposition is that weak.

More broadly speaking I would guess that it is associated with having a strong environmentalist movement and a general high regard for "natural" things. Not sure why the Germans generally have a stronger affection for things being "natural" though.. However it seems have quite some history with all sorts of movements appreciating the natural as opposed to the artificial/modern.

Placing a nuclear plant within a radius of 50 km of another country's capital is an obvious provocation.

How? That is basically saying that placing Malmø 20 km from Copenhagen was a provocation..

That is a stupid comparison.

Nuclear plants posses a certain danger and they should not be placed near major cities, that are difficult to evacuate and where the consequences of an accident would be tremendous - that is not hysteria, but prudent risk management. A country may decide to take that risk on behalf of its own citizens, but it is not reasonable to do so for other countries.

Btw Malmoe was obviously "placed" where it is while Scania was Danish.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 26, 2015, 06:30:19 pm
Things turned out as I expected.

Well played by DPP, I think, they got to look responsible and avoided getting responsibility at the same time.

The most interesting now is how Radikale will react. Will they stay in Red Bloc or try a freer role.

Venstre will need either DPP or SD to form a majority and they can not afford to alienate DPP, so DPP will still wield great influence. It is difficult to see how Venstre can satisfy LA (and their own more ideological members) in this scenario.

9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: What makes a country support/oppose nuclear? on: June 25, 2015, 07:21:48 pm
Cranberry's latest series as you may have seen, had a wholly unrealistic result: a landslide victory (in Austria) for nuclear power. And that got me thinking. In the UK, Canada, the US, France and most of Scandinavian there is a fairly ephemeral movement opposing nukes; but they have never received significant attention from the public. But in, say, German speaking countries the opposition is persistent, strong and influential enough to swing elections. Why is this?

Of the countries in Scandinavia only Sweden got nuclear power (and Finland if you use the term more broadly), so in general there is not that much to protest against (though not having any didn't stop the Danes from complaining about Swedish nuclear plants..). Further Sweden had a referendum in 1980, the outcome of which was that we should get rid of our nuclear plants. So wouldn't say that the opposition is that weak.

More broadly speaking I would guess that it is associated with having a strong environmentalist movement and a general high regard for "natural" things. Not sure why the Germans generally have a stronger affection for things being "natural" though.. However it seems have quite some history with all sorts of movements appreciating the natural as opposed to the artificial/modern.

Placing a nuclear plant within a radius of 50 km of another country's capital is an obvious provocation.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Nordic Thread on: June 25, 2015, 05:24:38 pm
Former  NATO SG and Danish PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen hired as consulent for giant Boston Consulting Group (BCG) with defence ministries and arms producers are main areas. He is starting to look more and more like Tony Blair.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 25, 2015, 05:22:13 pm
Poll shows 53% of Danes wants DPP in government (with very different motives likely)
32% prefer a pure LIbeeral government.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Do you ever have weird personal feelings of irrendentism? on: June 25, 2015, 05:11:17 pm

I'm gonna give Jamtland to Norway,

Herjedalen is even more logical and they still speak Norwegian. I would give them Bohuslen as well except the part that is de facto part of greater Gothenburg.
13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Do you ever have weird personal feelings of irrendentism? on: June 25, 2015, 05:08:31 pm
Nordic borders should be returned to this and the white areas on the peninsula given to the Saami.

14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Nordic Thread on: June 25, 2015, 05:01:31 pm
Since no one mentioned it: The Greenlandic parliament unanimously decided to legalize gay marriage on May 27 by adopting the Danish rules. Gay marriage will be legal from October 1. Adds a bit of territory to the same sex marriage map..
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 25, 2015, 04:46:10 pm
Update:

Mette Frederiksen constituted as temporary SD chairman, she will be formally elected on an extraordinary congress next week.


DPP says the current offer from LLR is not good enough for them to enter government. Thulesen Dahl mentions welfare and healthcare as the biggest hindrance. Looks like they are trying to get out of it.


Anders Samuelsen threatens not to support a government unless there are tax cuts for high income earners. This will be hard for DPP to swallow.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Nordic Thread on: June 24, 2015, 11:00:36 pm
Faroese PM Kaj Leo Johannesen (Union Party) deliberately misled the Lagting in a case regarding a tunnel between the two largest islands - according to a report by Ombudsman Hans Gammeltoft Hansen. No news of political consequences as the Lagting does not meet before July 29, but after a fairly bad Folketing election for Johannesen and with Lagting election on October 29 there seems to be growing pressure for him to step down. The current government has been behind in the polls for nearly a year now.

http://sermitsiaq.ag/undersoegelse-lagmanden-forsaetligt-vildledt-lagtinget
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 24, 2015, 10:33:48 pm
On the parliamentarian situation for a DPP-Lib government and a Liberal solo government:

If DPP gets into government the two Greenlanders will be prepared to support a vote of no confidence. Greenlanders consider DPP (and especially their Deputy Chairman and spokesperson on Greenland Soeren Espersen) to be insensitive and neocolonialist. IA prefers not to vote on Danish issues and I doubt they would participate in toppling a Liberal government. Siumut has moved in the same direction in recent years despite their technical cooperation agreement with SD. Faroese Republic will likely stay neutral in both scenarios, they see their MPs role as ambassador for their country.

Radikale will be stuck in Red Bloc if DPP gets into government, but might pursue a more free agent role if the Liberals go solo (at least if the government survives its first year).

So DPP-Liberals will be a mere 90-88 for the government. One deserter from Liberals to Radikale (a new Bjorn Elmquist over civil rights issues or a hardcore Europhile) makes it a tie and two DPPs going Indie or making a mini-party (like Christian Hansen did with Fokus) will make it very unstable.

A Liberal government might be able to create a working relationship with Radikale on economics/welfare - making the situation more unclear. The baseline here is 90-86.

DPP has conducted a very thorough vetting process for new candidates this time (everyone has been interviewed by party leadership and went through extensive background check) to secure that they all tow the party line (and avoid nutters), but with that many new faces and the character of the party there are bound to be a couple of mavericks.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 24, 2015, 10:14:12 pm
It's hilarious how Left Copenhagen is...

Add Frederiksberg and Gentofte and this changes a bit, but yes. "Everybody in that city are Commies.." as it says in a 1950s show tune. Though we have gotten a small right wing enclave in the historically proletarian SW due to recent developing, which sorta spoils the map.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 24, 2015, 10:06:25 pm
Actually I think it may be a reference to referendums on whether the Danish government should maintain its opt-outs on several EU matters. They were agreed before the election.

Yes, sorry for being unclear.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 23, 2015, 05:59:40 pm
One option that has been mentioned by DR political editior Jens Ringberg is worth noticing. A Liberal government with an announcement by LLR and Thulesen Dahl that it will be extended with DPP after a coming EU-referendum. This allows DPP to campaign freely without having a split government and appear responsible. At the same time DPP can hope for a collapse of the government and a new election before they actually have to take responsibility.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 23, 2015, 05:23:58 pm
It is obviously the best option for Venstre (never claimed otherwise), but at the end of the day the DPP is the party that decides. Loekke is in a weak position. He does not have much of a choice.

So far most observers have assumed that DPP would only go into government if they were stronger than the other three blue bloc parties and thereby able to get major influence on European policy. This time the Eurosceptic part of Blue Bloc is stronger than the Europhile, but DPP itself is still weaker than Lib/Con and LA is not a natural ally for DPP. Eurosceptics are a minority in the Folketing and the old parties (Venstre, SD, Radikale and Conservatives) are unlikely to want major changes to Danish EU policy. Being unambiguously pro-European is still seen as vital for corporate and agricultural Denmark and thereby also for Venstre.

If DPP stays out they are in a good position for the next election, if they join, they will almost certainly lose seats. That is the bottom line. They need big concessions for them to be worth it. Even then it seems like an unnecessary risk.

We obviously disagree on this one. ^^ I still say DPP will go into government, giving Venstre a more centre-right economic policy and gaining concessions on Europe.

We will see who are right in the coming days. Wink
If it turns out I'm right I'd just want to point out I predicted it already in January.


How big can DPP grow before it's just silly to stay as simple government support though? I'm sure they like governing from the Folketing benches (we all know government is hazardous for your health) where they can pretend to be the opposition while de facto being in power. But at some point if the DPP continues growing that will become ridiculous. Can there really be a minority government that is smaller in support than the parties in parliament that it relies on? 

I am not saying it wont happen, just that it will be a mistake by the DPP leadership - which I generally consider to be clever operators - and a surprise. In addition to the other things I have mentioned DPP depends on a large bloc of former SDs that can revert to the left if the government cuts too deep on welfare. On Europe such a government would likely frustrate both Europhiles in Venstre (risk of defections to Radikale) and DPP core supporters. It will be more fragile than a pure Venstre government.

DPP is under pressure to appear responsible, but if their long term aim is to become the biggest party in Denmark, they should pass this time.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 22, 2015, 06:42:50 pm
Oh great, another sh*tty election result.

Given the circumstances it is actually quite good for people like you. As noted above the reverse result would have been a disaster for the left.

This might very well be the ouverture for a Frederiksen goverment in 2016 with a weaker Radikale = a more classical SD line. Alternativet is a joker, but if you count them as somewhat leftist/green, this is not bad for the left. DPP won so big that they might be tempted/feel obliged to enter government, which is the safest way to break a right wing populist party - especially such a weak government.

The Thorning/Corydon axis was a guarantee for a all round quite right wing party, both on economics, immigration and civil rights/justice. It was only on the environment that this goverment was (moderately) leftist. If Thorning had stayed on with a decent election result this would have continued.

Thanks for the explanation, that's quite heartening actually.

When will the next SD Congress be held? And who are the leading candidates? Hopefully the next leader will be a left-winger.

It looks like it will be a coronation of Mette Frederiksen and it is hard to see a credible alternative (Corydon does not have the necessary support and Frederiksen and right wing leader Henrik Sass Larsen seems to have a mutual understanding of power sharing between the largest factions - so likely no challenge from his wing). She is the leader of the centrist faction (The Network), but a former left winger (once dubbed belonging to the Hugo Chavez faction of the party by her critics). She has been pragtmatic, but is clearly much closer to a traditional SD line than Thorning. So a move from the right to the center of the party. The actual left wing is rather weak and without a credible candidate right now.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 22, 2015, 06:35:55 pm
A poor result as expected for the Conservatives, but there might be some hope for the party in the 6 candidates it looks like they will get in. The leader Søren Pape Poulsen gets in and managed to improve his party's fortunes in Western Jutland to 4.9%. The former leader Lars Barfoed will not get a seat in Copenhagen, and instead the 27-year old Mette Abildgaard is elected in Northern Zealand. The 55-year old Mike Legarth will not be re-elected in Southern Jutland, while 35-year old Mai Mercado will be elected in Funen. Finally the 38-year old Rasmus Jarlov, who has been the Conservative leader in the Copenhagen City Council, will get into parliament.
So the generational change the party has been longing for, seems to come true. However, with recounts and so on, seats could change again inside the party, but it looks like they will get a completely new start.

Pape, Abilgaard, Jarlov and Mercado... That is four solid right wingers. Who are the last two? Does Pape get a pure right wing group? That would make his political project much more realistic.

Mr. Stop Nazi-Islamism Naser Khader and Brian Mikkelsen. Khader certainly quite right-wing, and after his failures in the New Alliance in explaining economic policies, he seems like he has lost interest in that part. His campaign was very much focus on immigration and extremism.

While Khader has a maverick streak and is a bit unpredictable, that is clearly the most right wing Conservative group post-1929 and possibly since 1920. There are zero moderates in the Christmas-Moeller tradition, which would be the first time since Christmas-Moeller himself was elected back in 1920.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 22, 2015, 06:23:42 pm
Failing to do that makes HTS a failure

That wasn't exactly her fault -  it was Radikale and SF who lost 18 seats between them.

It doesn't make much of a difference for Venstre and SocDem only gaining power matters, that's success everything else is a failure. Svend Auken got some of the greatest election results for SocDem and he's still seen as a failure, because he failed to gain power.

^^^^

Getting votes from your coalition partners is not considered success. when Auken won big in 1990 it was dismissed as a fusion on the left by pundits, because SF lost big.

Besides seen in a historical light the SD result is still among the worst in party history. You can say it is good by "modern standards", but being below 30% is still seen as rather miserable by many.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015 on: June 22, 2015, 06:17:32 pm
It is between a Liberal minority government and a Liberal-DPP coalition. The first option is the logical - unless Thulesen-Dahl has lost his cool. I was very surprised DPP even brought up getting into government in the first place.

Thulesen-Dahl has said that the party should be were it will be able to have the greatest influence, has he not? Let's face it, on immigration DPP will hold the sway no matter if they're in or out of this government, however on other areas, most notably the European Union, it is entirely possible, not to say likely, that a pure Venstre government would run a very pro-European policy with support from across the aisle. If DPP is in the government however they can make sure that Denmark is a close ally to Cameron in the re-negotiations of the EU-terms, and thereby curb intra-EU migration.

On the same time, Lars Lökke has all the reason to want the DPP inside his government. I think your analysis too often assume that Lökke is some docile idiot, and not the sharp ruthless and mean politician he actually is. With a strong coalition partner in the government he will have someone to share the blame with, and since voters always finds a reason to be cross with the government, it is most important as a party to not stand alone in government, especially when your party is already weak.       

In a coalition Lökke would also be able to trade concessions from Venstre on Europe for a more centre-right economic policy, which would please the Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives. Everybody wins, and the blue bloc gets the most stable government they could out of this unstable election result.

That is why the Venstre-DPP coalition is actually the most logical solution.

It is obviously the best option for Venstre (never claimed otherwise), but at the end of the day the DPP is the party that decides. Loekke is in a weak position. He does not have much of a choice.

So far most observers have assumed that DPP would only go into government if they were stronger than the other three blue bloc parties and thereby able to get major influence on European policy. This time the Eurosceptic part of Blue Bloc is stronger than the Europhile, but DPP itself is still weaker than Lib/Con and LA is not a natural ally for DPP. Eurosceptics are a minority in the Folketing and the old parties (Venstre, SD, Radikale and Conservatives) are unlikely to want major changes to Danish EU policy. Being unambiguously pro-European is still seen as vital for corporate and agricultural Denmark and thereby also for Venstre.

If DPP stays out they are in a good position for the next election, if they join, they will almost certainly lose seats. That is the bottom line. They need big concessions for them to be worth it. Even then it seems like an unnecessary risk.
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