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October 25, 2014, 01:25:55 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to ban BushOklahoma on: October 24, 2014, 08:16:17 pm
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Swedish artist sentenced for 'racist' art on: October 24, 2014, 07:49:17 pm
How surprising! Denmark endorsing racism.


1. None of this is a government sanctioned arrangement, so Denmark isn't endorsing anything.

2. Dan Park isn't a racist.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish Labour leadership election on: October 24, 2014, 03:49:08 pm
Is Johann a girls name in Scotland? The Wiki article mentions both her parents where Gaelic speakers, is it (also) a Gaelic name?

So Sarwars dad is a rich businessman with shady connections?

4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Botswana general election - October 24, 2014 on: October 24, 2014, 03:11:54 pm
Botswana Gazette's breakdown of the race in the key battlegrounds:



Link to Indepedent Electoral Commission (official, despite the name...)
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee the favorite to win the Adelson primary? on: October 24, 2014, 02:53:40 pm
Huckabee would lose 40 states vs hillary clinton. There is not a single person who did  not vote for Romney, that would vote for him. He appeals to no one.

I think 30-32 is more realistic.
6  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: wikipedia.org has no page for this site on: October 24, 2014, 12:58:37 pm
Doesn't wikipedia use the Atlas as their source for a tons of US elections

does the fact that wikipedia repeatedly uses it as a source count for notability?

Yes and no. They want external sources.
7  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Opinion of Family International on: October 24, 2014, 12:27:39 pm
An evil cult
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Botswana general election - October 24, 2014 on: October 24, 2014, 09:24:02 am
A bit about the economy:

Botswana's GDP grew by 5.4% in 2013 and has experienced consistently high growth since independence Ė but it is facing an impending crisis.

Botswana's economy depends entirely on diamonds and they could start running out as soon as 2027. At which point GDP could plummet by 45%, according to expert estimates. This would be an economic catastrophe. So diversification is a must.

BDPís current plan to preempt this is to exploit the country's plentiful but poor quality coal deposits. But getting the coal to market requires the construction of a multi-billion $ railroad, which would likely make the coal too expensive to be competitive Ė even if Botswana could find someone to fund this massive infrastructure project.

Tourism is a (partial) alternative, but BDP seems to prefer resource extraction to nature.

With a declining democracy  Botswana could go from being one of the richest and most stable societies in Africa to a failed state if something isn't done to reverse the course and think a little out of the box.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mozambique presidential and parliamentary elections - 15 October 2014 on: October 24, 2014, 08:52:01 am
UK based Mozambique Political Process Bulletin has analyzed the fraud situation.

Their basic premise is that reports of impossibly high turnouts is evidence of ballot box stuffing. Turnouts of more than 80% of registered voters are highly unlikely in Mozambique, especially in rural areas where people have to walk long distances. It is much more likely that there has been ballot box stuffing, either putting unused ballot papers into the ballot box, or simply changing the results sheets (editales) at the end of polling day.

The most extreme cases are from the southern Frelimo stronghold Gaza, where five districts report very high turnouts:

Chicualacuala 89%
Chigubo 82%
Mabalane 80%,
Massangena 96%
Massingir 92%.

These results are especially suspect when compared to equally loyal Frelimo areas of Gaza, such as Mandlakazi where the turnout was a more average 56%.

These five are small rural districts, but they have probably added 20,000 false votes for Frelimo and Filipe Nyussi.

"The Electoral Observatory (EO) also points to suspiciously high turnouts in Guija, Gaza, where we do not have a district result yet."

Another suspect district is Ka Nanyaka in Maputo city, which reported a turnout of 79% compared to a city-wide turnout of 60%. Again the EO finds suspiciously high turnouts in the sample polling stations in that district.

Mabote district in neighbouring Inhambane, with 81% turnout, was also reported by EO observers to have an impossibly high turnout.

EO data also point to ballot box stuffing in these districts:

Cabo Delgado: Muidumbe

Inhambane: Inhassoro and Panda

Nampula: Ilha de Mocambique and Nacala-a-Velha

Niassa: Mecula

Tete: Cahora Bassa, Changara and Zumbo

Most of these districts are strongly pro-Frelimo. The Tete districts are majority Frelimo with a significant Renamo vote. The Nampula districts are divided and hard fought. Ilha de Mocambique and Changara have a long history of ballot box stuffing in favour of Frelimo.

Nearly all ballot box stuffing has been in favour of Frelimo and its presidential candidate.

More than 5% of ballot boxes seems likely to have been stuffed

"We estimate that there was significant ballot box stuffing in more than 5% of polling stations, which probably increased the vote for Frelimo candidate Filipe Nyusi by more than 100,000."

Using the Electoral Observatory sample count they also estimate that there were problems such as very late opening or changed location for about 130 polling stations. Observers and party delegates reported cases of polling stations having an additional register book which was not on the official list of polling stations and register books. They suggest this happened in up to 250 polling stations.

The alternative NGO Electoral Observatory sample count collected data from observers in 1770 polling stations which were selected by statistical methods to be an accurate sample of the more than 17,000 polling stations. They use that informationto estimate the scale of problems.

The basic estimate is that any turnout above 80% is irregular and probably indicates ballot box stuffing. And the sample count found that 5% of all polling stations had a higher turnout. If that percentage applies to all polling stations, that suggests that there was significant ballot box stuffing by polling station staff (MMVs, membros das mesas de voto) in more than 850 polling stations, which could have added more than 100,000 votes for Filipe Nyusi. If that 100,000 is removed from his total, his share of the vote in the provisional count would fall nearly 1%, from 56.8% down to 55.9%

Turnouts of over 80% were particularly noted in Tete, Gaza, Inhambane, and Cabo Delgado. So southern and far north Frelimo heartland + ever troublesome Tete.

This estimate is based only on large-scale ballot box stuffing, there is also reported smaller scale ballot box stuffing, of a few extra ballot papers, which cant be identified by statistical methods.

Still, conntrary to last time the amount of fraud is so relatively limited this time, that the result is largely correct. Nyusi did win an outright majority and Frelimo did get over 50% of the seats in parliament, but their margin should have been lower.

The fraud has been slightly more sophisticatred this time. In 2009 there were district with 98-100% turnout (and even some 100%+ turnout district!).
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite Slavic country on: October 24, 2014, 08:12:15 am
Slovenia (normal, sane, etc), though Russia comes close

Plus, you forgot Kosovo

Not Slavic - if you include them you might as well call Austria Slavic based on your minorities.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mozambique presidential and parliamentary elections - 15 October 2014 on: October 24, 2014, 08:09:42 am

In the isolated and often troubled western province of Tete Afonso Dhlakama won, but Frelimo finished first in the parliamentary election.

531,953 people voted out of 971,644 registered voters, so a turnout of 54.75%.

Riots staged by Renamo supporters in the districts of Tsangano and Macanga on polling day led to the destruction of 22 polling stations, so its an incomplete count (the ballot boxes and the votes they contained were burned).

No decision has yet been taken as to whether the elections will be rerun in these parts of the province. Its before the Constitutional Council, Mozambique's highest body in matters of constitutional and electoral law. Until this decision is taken, any results from Tete can only be regarded as provisional.

Dhlakama won the presidential election with 49% of the vote to 46% for Nyusi. In the parliamentary election it was  48% Frelimo against 46% for Renamo.

But the harsh fact is that the Frelimo vote has collapsed in Tete. In 2009 , won 86% and Frelimo did even better, winning 87.2% of the vote.

Dhlakama's vote has soared from 8.8% in 2009 to almost 50% now, while  Simango has dropped from 5.3 to 4.4%

Some caution needs to be taken with the 2009 results, since there was substantial fraud in favour of Frelimo, notably in Changara district, where many polling stations claimed impossible turnouts of 100% or close to 100 per cent (there were even some with turnouts of over 100%, but the electoral bodies threw those out).

Presidential election

Valid Votes - 471,315

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) -231,972 (49.22%)

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 218,850 (46.43%)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 20,493 (4.35%)

Parliamentary election

Frelimo - 208,933

Renamo - 197,922

MDM - 26.343

Exact percentages for the parliamentary election can't be calculated, since the local media don't mention the results for minor parties, who will have picked up a couple of per cent between them.

These results mean that 11 of Tete's 22 seats will go to Frelimo, 10 to Renamo and 1 to the MDM.

In 2009, Tete only had 20 seats. 18 of these went to Frelimo and2 to Renamo (MDM was barred from standing in Tete). So Frelimo will lose seven Tete seats, Renamo will gain eight and MDM one.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sarah Palin has endorsed Walker in AK-Gov race. on: October 24, 2014, 07:54:41 am
I see Alaska's black guy attended the event!

Blacks made up 3,6% of the state population in the 2010 census. Black Alaskans have often military background, so its no surprise if they are Republicans.

13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mozambique presidential and parliamentary elections - 15 October 2014 on: October 24, 2014, 06:25:08 am

Registered voters - 598,276

Number who voted - 327,773

Turnout - 54.78 per cent

Presidential election

Blank ballots - 14,051 (4.29%)

Invalid votes - 11,460 (3.49%)

Valid votes - 302,262 (92.22%)

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) - 228,819 (75.7%)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) - 57,523 (19.03%)

Daviz Simango (MDM) - 15,920 (5.27%)

Parliamentary election

Blank ballots - 25,145

Invalid votes - 15,768

Frelimo - 207,642 (72.05 per cent)

Renamo - 44.055 (15.29 per cent)

MDM - 15,941 (5.18 per cent)

More than 7% of the valid votes were scattered around a large number of minor parties on the ballot papers.

Inhambane has 14 seats in parliament, and 12 will go to Frelimo and 2 to Renamo.

In the last election, in 2009, Inhambane had 16 seats, 15 of which went to Frelimo and 1 to Renamo. So Frelimo will lose 3 Inhambane seats. Renamo gains 1, while the other 2 are lost because of demographic changes.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Jeff Merkley becomes first sitting US senator to endorse marijuana legalization on: October 24, 2014, 01:00:19 am
15  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: wikipedia.org has no page for this site on: October 23, 2014, 10:02:30 pm
Wiki is generally a pain when it comes to establishing notability and there doesn't seem to be any reviews of the site (except some peer reviews) or articles about the site.

Well, there has been at least one article, though it doesn't mention the forum specifically.

It doesn't mention Atlas at all.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Is democracy for everyone? on: October 23, 2014, 07:44:30 pm
False premise. Democracy has nothing to do with the electorate "governing itself." Democracy is about the majority governing the whole. There are some situations in which this is clearly not desirable.

Not necessarily. You can have a government with proportional representation of all the major parties as in Switzerland (especially 1959-2008), or power sharing between ethnic groups as in Northern Ireland or Bosnia (not efficient, but still democratic).

17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Your two favorite South Asian countries on: October 23, 2014, 06:48:44 pm

18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update XVIII: 15 Miles From Lunch on: October 23, 2014, 06:41:44 pm
Gustaf, it's clear you don't like me.  You have the right to like who you want.  I must disagree that I'm not trying to be a good person.  With the risk of bringing faith into this, I am doing my best to worship and honor and glorify my God.  I fall short in many, many areas, and I have never said I'm perfect and have never meant I'm better than anybody else.  You are right that I'm not a good person.  There is no one good, except God, in the truest sense of the word that He created. He is the only definition of good.  Our definitions of what is good and our good works are indeed filthy rags in His sight.  That's why I'm so thankful for His grace that has cleansed me from all unrighteousness and has saved me from eternity in hell.  I know that through the lens of Christ's blood, I am seen as spotless.  That's the only way I can enter heaven.

I appreciate your honesty, and I've always respected you as a moderator because I've always seen you as fair even to those you do not personally like.

Yours truly,


The only definition of ultimate goodness (for a Christian), but clearly there are good people out there and you make it too easy for yourself by just emphasising the dichotomy between God and us sinful humans. You could clearly get much closer to being a good person and act less egotistical - be careful not to use God as an excuse for not pursuing any self improvement.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: RNC: America needs a principled conservative leader-like George W. Bush on: October 23, 2014, 06:22:39 pm
Thatís what America needs right now: a big dose of leadership. The kind of principled conservative leadership President Bush provided our great nation. And the kind of leadership Republicans will deliver when we win a Senate majority.
There is so much wrong with this, its funny. 

A). The idea that Bush was a 'principled conservative'.
B). Promising that they'll be just like Bush when they win the Senate, like its a positive thing.
C). Expecting leadership, or anything other than deadlock, from the Senate.

The idea that Bush wasn't conservative is something political geeks can entertain based on various inane criteria (such as: you are not a conservative if you increase debt or create any new public programs (even if they are based on conservative values), but by common standards he was a conservative.
Atlas posters claiming that politician like Reagan and Bush 43 wasn't really conservative just shows how detached from common discourse this forum is.
20  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: wikipedia.org has no page for this site on: October 23, 2014, 06:06:40 pm
Wiki is generally a pain when it comes to establishing notability and there doesn't seem to be any reviews of the site (except some peer reviews) or articles about the site.

I don't know if this has ever been discussed, but I noticed that there is no page on wiki for this site. I don't know if wikipedians would considered such a page justified, but I was curious what regulars on this forum think of the idea of creating a wiki page for this site.

I know of course that this site has it's own wiki pages, but that is not what I am talking about.
I am talking about wikipedia.org

Its a fine idea, but someone will have to do a lot of tedious work and possibly argue a lot with Wiki-Nazis over notoriety. Are you willing to do that?
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: October 23, 2014, 04:36:42 pm
Thanks. So Labour is being isolated on income tax. What caveats do they have?

The Tory and LibDem party symbols (a kindergarden style doodle three and a golden bird..) don't make much sense. What was the thinking behind them? (if there was any).

EDIT: I see the LibDem supposed to be a "liberty bird"  and some marketing experts have voted it the best logo of the three major parties (with Labour's rose at the bottom!). Definitely not how I would have ranked them.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The Ebola Thread (US Domestic) on: October 23, 2014, 03:43:18 pm
And Rwanda just started screening flights from the U.S. LOL.

23  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: Favorite current US Supreme Court Justice on: October 23, 2014, 03:33:08 pm
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Brazil Election - 5 October 2014 on: October 23, 2014, 02:19:21 pm
What turned this around?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Small Island Developing States Elections on: October 23, 2014, 02:09:10 pm
At least 26 women to run in the Solomon Islands parliamentary election on November 19, which is the highest number ever. Only two women has ever been elected to the National Assembly in the strongly patriarchal and traditionalist Solomons.


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