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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which of the Nordic countries is most conservative? on: Today at 07:53:59 am
LOL at someone actually voting for Sweden.

I did the cultural conservatism rating above. The current politically right wing rating from most to least is:

1. Finland
2. Denmark
3. Iceland (#)
4. Norway
5. Sweden

This is more tricky than the culture thing because there is still a stronger element of Liberalism in the Danish right wing than in the other countries, so whether being to the right of Sweden and Norway in itself makes us more Conservative is up for debate. Note that I consider the Norwegian Progress Party as de facto a rather generic right wing party by now, although still populist. Denmark at this point having the most comprehensive universal welfare state is then a further complication. "Leftist" Sweden has cut far deeper than us.


Size of the welfare state:

1. Denmark
2. Norway
3. Sweden
4. Finland/Iceland

But is having a large universal welfare state necessarily at odds with being Conservative in a Nordic context? (DPP at least claims it isn't..).

# It makes no sense comparing contemporary Icelandic politics to the pre-crash era. The balance is changed and IP has stabilized on a level far below their historical strength. The 2013 PP craze was a populist backlash after disappointed expectations and a dream of an easy way out of the debt, not an expression of an ideological swing to the right - the centre-right government quickly became unpopular and has remained so despite delivering decent economic results because most voters simply disagree with it on fundamental areas.
Iceland has gotten a radical streak and may well be to the left of Norway right now, but since the traditional left is so discredited and 10% of voters are still members of IP (far stronger than any mainland Conservative - or other - party) I place them a bit further to the right, but more likely to move leftwards than any of the mainland Scandinavian countries.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Bobloblaw Theatre of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts V on: Today at 06:48:02 am
Yeah, white people are basically without culture.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Israel general discussion on: Today at 06:03:03 am
Yeah, but their tunnels are even better this time.  Meanwhile, 37,000 tons of concrete sits in a warehouse, about to expire.  Like 95% of Gaza's problems, Hamas is the root, but like 95% of Gaza's problems, useful idiots in the west will blame Israel.

No matter who is to blame a total collapse of Gaza will have serious consequences. People will have to go somewhere - either Egypt, Israel or - if blocked by their neighbours - they will try to reach Europe. So this is another refugee time bomb waiting to happen.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015 on: Today at 05:40:52 am
The Speaker Jógvan á Lakjuni (PP) has had talks with all party leader and the opposition will try to form a government.

The main problem is that Republic/Progress/Home Rule want a roadmap towards independence and SD still being unionists at heart are unwilling to go along with that even if they want a separate Faroese Constitution and more autonomy. It will be hard to land a compromise between Republic/Progress and SD on this, but it will likely be done.

The mutual understanding about where a compromise should be about the economy, taxes, quotas etc. is high after all their previous contacts in the last couple of years, so it is the constitutional future that is the hard part. Despite PP being in the previous government the balance in this one would be a lot more separatist because Republic and Progress are more principled separatists and less willing too compromise on this issue.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015 on: Today at 05:03:02 am
Maps of party strength:

http://kvf.fo/greinar/2015/09/02/si-foroyakortini-soleidis-atkvoddu-foroyingar#.VegZ_7TxlsM

Red = highest
Blue = lowest
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015 on: Today at 04:31:35 am
Yes indeed, there were only two. But previously the Progress Party is also a split of PP and I am not sure if they actually splitted during the previous term 2008-2011. And anything can happen with HR.

What is the economic situation in FO now? There was a huge crisis in the 1990s.


Pretty decent, it is the long term structural problems with an aging population, migration to Denmark (especially young women)/students never returning, combined with necessary investments in the public sector infrastructure that is the problem. And if sea based fish farming, which is very lucrative, can continue at current rate without polluting too much. So more sustainability than cash problems here and now - and then the dream of financing independence for some.

Progress split from PP in March 2011 and the election was in October. It was just Poul Michelsen and Hanna Jensen, some people from PPs youth org HUAX and a few others that left, many of their members are new people not previously engaged in politics. The former chairman of Home Rule Sámal Petur í Grund also switched to Progress.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Israel general discussion on: September 02, 2015, 09:58:51 pm
UN report says Gaza could become "uninhabitable" in five years.

http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2015/09/gaza-united-nations/403570/
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Europe-Middle East-Africa Refugee Crisis General Thread on: September 02, 2015, 09:01:18 pm
But of course, beware the browns right? No matter where they are?

However much you guys like to make this about race it is not the colour of their skin that is the problem, and it is not as simple as "lets just help those in need". Refugee situations can often be boiled down to this, but this one can't. And there have been several attempts to explain why. Ignoring them and just posting a moral reprimand is pointless.

9  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Is killing animals for food moral? on: September 02, 2015, 07:27:34 pm
Yes. Animals kill other animals for food, its perhaps the most natural occurrence in the biological world.
Pretty much this.

I am pro killing animals for food, but something being natural doesn't make it moral, so that is a lousy argument.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 07:16:49 pm
LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-party on the ballot.

This probably benefits ANEL?

Probably a tiny bit, but not much - and ANEL is likely tainted by being allied with Syriza. LAOS is practically irrelevant by now anyway.

Last time ND campaigned to the right on immigration and law & order and got a lot of former LAOS supporters. There is a bloc of floating right wingers that both ND and ANEL could theoretically get, but not sure how much Syriza hurts ANEL among right wingers outside of their core audience. px might know, but it is a "niche-market".

ANEL is hurt not so much because of its collaboration with SYRIZA per se. They are hurt because despite all their anti-austerity hysteria (Kammenos went so far to ask his supporters to lynch a PASOK MP who voted for the first package in 2010), eventually they too voted for the new program.

Agreed. ANEL voters are likely mad they voted for the bailout. If they didn't want to support a SYRIZA coalition, they wouldn't have voted ANEL in the first place, since joining SYRIZA's coalition was a big part of their campaign.

Sure, but the group we (Helsinkian and I) were talking about was not ANEL voters, but the (very) few remaining LAOS voters + the group of former LAOS voters and other right wing Conservative SoCons/nationalists etc. The group identified by ND strategists as the "floating right wingers" last time.

It is obvious why ANEL voters are leaving them, the question is if they can get enough others to join them to pass the threshold.

(I dont think so, but it would be interesting to hear px view and he seemed to just talk about ANEL in general)
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Great Nordic Thread on: September 02, 2015, 07:00:55 pm
SDAs executive committee has decided to call a leadership election to be held next autumn. In the meantime they will try to broaden the partys membership and "bring it back to the mass movement it was intended as" to quote party chairman Árni Páll Árnason and among other things go in dialogue with the unions and tenant associations, but SDA has basically no workers among either membership or elected officials, so I doubt they can convince union members to suddenly join a higher middle class party. Even BF probably has more manual workers among its supporters because of the Best Party legacy. The other four parties certainly have.

I think that the postponed leadership election is a risky strategy. A whole year with Árnason as leader on "borrowed time" will create a lot of instability and jockeying for position.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Current status of SSM in the holdout states (MAP) on: September 02, 2015, 06:16:25 pm
After two weeks, we have an update: 17 holdout and 1 unknown. The one Unknown is Knott, Kentucky.

Seriously Alabama. It's been nearly two months now.

Do you have the names of the 17 holdouts?
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 05:20:56 pm
Also, besides the 2 guys who left SD, there was one guy who left Progress.

(indeed, it can be I am generally skeptical of these Liberal Alliance free market folks)

There were only two defectors. 1 guy left SD for UP and 1 Progress for PP. 
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 05:19:17 pm
But also looking at things from Progress side, it may be true in the end that flirting with the left hitted them. They were overpolled (I think from all parties they were the most overpolled). They were constantly in 4 or 3-4 MP and they got 2 (there is a third awaiting a recount but still...)

In politics it is not just that you agree on some things and you just develop them for a period of time. Always new problems arise and new things to take into account, and in some matters the left/right economic divide may be relevant (we should not forget they come from the PP)

HR may me more unstable but they seem to be OK with almost everything to stay in.

Of course, if they ever needed any help in left-wing economic matters, they could still try to do geometrical vote in the assembly and try to get the support of CP in economic issues. But if the ruling coalition approves same-sex marriage or abortion CP will not tell them even "hello".

By the way, I read somewhere there were also big issues with the Sirian refugees, is that actually that problematic?

I doubt Progress was under polled. I think they collapsed in the final days due to media reports about the "bloc politics".

But I think you underestimate just how much Faroese society needs to be modernized in many ways and how much a tightly woven elite of owners of big trawlers and fishing companies control the economy, which is what the leftists and Progress agree on being against. Also, the two Progress MPs are the two founders of the party, and they have more freedom of moving the party than others would have had. It is basically their party.

Anyway, it is pointless to discuss which coalition might be formed, we will soon know. My point is just that the Faroes is a special place and things that do not make sense in the rest of Europe might make sense in this particular context.

About Syrian refugees: A Danish historian named Lars Hovbakke Sřrensen has gotten a bit of media attention by saying it would determine the election that KLJ had said they should take 1% of Danish refugees back in his New Year speech, but my Faroese contact says it was hardly debated in the campaign.

The proposal was quickly shot down because they lack social workers, various medical facilities and people knowledgable about treatment of torture victims etc. and because many of their municipalities are tiny. They could of course set up refugee camps, but that is not how Danish refugee politics work. SD was critical about the proposal and Hovbakke Sřrensen saw it as "exciting" that the centre-right wanted refugees, but the centre-left was against, but it was mostly a matter of facilities and practical stuff. Not SD xenophobia.

It is logical for a unionist to want to contribute to solving the unions refugee burden, while the separatists want control over immigration policy for ideological reasons. So the separatists - incl. Republic and PP - were also against KLJs plan.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 04:42:55 pm
LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-partyo on the ballot.

This probably benefits ANEL?

Probably a tiny bit, but not much - and ANEL is likely tainted by being allied with Syriza. LAOS is practically irrelevant by now anyway.

Last time ND campaigned to the right on immigration and law & order and got a lot of former LAOS supporters. There is a bloc of floating right wingers that both ND and ANEL could theoretically get, but not sure how much Syriza hurts ANEL among right wingers outside of their core audience. px might know, but it is a "niche-market".
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 04:29:02 pm
Here in Spain there are periods where Parliament do not meet (summer, part of december and january). Otherwise they usually meet.

The legislative process takes long though (first things have to go to commission, then to plenary). I am not sure how these 33 folks work.

In a Spanish city like Madrid or Barcelona they have plenary sessions every month. But of course they are municipalities.

PD: do you think that AJ wants a broader coalition not only because 17 is too tight but also because they are not so confident of Progress Party? Maybe it is me, but I still see it a strange mix.

Probably, but it is also about mavericks in SD. Gerhard Lognberg deserted to UP in this period due to disagreement about a tunnel project (it is the Faroes after all Wink ), and there are both a the Mayor of Torshavn Heđin Mortensen (who was in UP 1988–2004) and Henrik Old, which may both be a risk when they have to make compromises with "strange bedfellows". If they are worried about Progress it is more likely they will just agree with them on a 2 year reform government - do their stuff on the areas they agree on, and then call a new election.

(actually there are two Mayors since Kristin Michelsen from Tvřroyrar kommuna also got elected - together with her deputy Bjarni Hammer, but that is the place on Suduroy where SD polled 57%+ and being on the SD list matters down there, so no worries about them defecting)

Home Rule defecting is actually a bigger risk than Progress since they are centrists and can easily swing to the other side, while Progress can not work with Centre.

All in all, after two MPs switched party in the last term having a buffer would be nice for Aksel Johannesen.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 03:09:28 pm
LAOS has announced they are not running either this time. So one less micro-party on the ballot.

SYRIZA's chief spokesperson now says they're willing to work with PASOK and Potami. New tunes.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 03:01:32 pm
Switch the bonus and you get a centre-right majority of ND, Potami and Union of Centrists.

Isn't ND-Potami-PASOK much more workable and easier? I believe the Union of Centrists has a stated ambition of becoming SYRIZA's junior partner in a coalition.

Yeah, yeah. See px post above (I have already been called out for that brainfart).
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: What about an Italian election game? on: September 02, 2015, 02:47:24 pm
BUMP
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your Favorite Season? on: September 02, 2015, 02:40:14 pm
Based on Danish climate:

Spring-Early Summer
Indian Summer-Early Autumn

Mid-Summer
Mid-Winter

Late Winter-Early to Mid March
Late Autumn-Early Winter

21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 02:10:45 pm
SYRIZA will lose. Even his MPs seem resigned to that reality and are going through the motions of defending the previous government's record.
They have nothing to sell anymore and every day we see reports about massive defections to LAE.

As much as I despise Sryiza and Tsipras this seems to be bad news.  If a ND government comes into power we will have a re-run of 2013-2014 where ND will try to carry out reforms but Sryiza will snipe from the opposition.  It is better to make Syriza own the deal they signed and carry it out.

Only this time SYRIZA will have no credibility criticizing the implementation of a program they negotiated and voted for.
Besides that, they have already clarified that they will support, more or less, the new program even if they lose the election.

Switch the bonus and you get a centre-right majority of ND, Potami and Union of Centrists.

Don't get fooled. Union of Centrists is a joke party headed by a man with clear mental issues that makes Beppe Grillo look like a real statesman.
No serious party will ever even think to hold any kind of talks and legitimize them.

Yeah, I actually know that, but it just slipped my mind. You have so many crazies in Greek politics, it is hard to remember all of them (at least when you stop following it for a year or so, like I did).



Vassilis Leventis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-K5GMKOsWU
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 02:06:38 pm
Is that an Assembly that meets often? I heard (dont know if it is right) that in Greenland they do not meet that often (maybe because of the distances, I do not know).

Yeah, doing constituency work in Greenland sometimes takes a bit of time Wink and would be too costly if they had to go back to Nuuk all the time.

Dunno about the Lřgting actually, but would expect them to meet up fairly regularly. They have a lot of responsibility (being close to running their own little nation state) + distances are short and flights rarely gets cancelled - even in the winter. It is not an extreme climate like Greenland.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 01:50:27 pm
I know you do not completely agree but I think KLJ played badly and led his party to a disaster. IF he was out, they would have another leader to do better. And I do not think this is good for him either, because he is out of everything.


It's called taking a chance.

The alternatives were worse and it could have paid off, the fact it didn't doesn't mean it was the wrong move. It might have been selfishly motivated, but it was unlikely the party could have agreed on an another leader so if he had left it would have meant a nasty and divisive power struggle right before an election. Now they have the personal votes to go by, which is often how the Faroese decide leadership contests (in municipal elections they usually simply appoint whoever got the most votes Mayor regardless of who was on top of the list).

Their last election was unusually good, so they were bound to lose some votes and the present result is not a disaster by any means. They are still one of the Big 4 in Faroese politics and will be back.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 01:39:16 pm
A question: once they decide to form a coalition, either with HR or Progress, are they also obliged to announce a joint manifesto with the main points of their agreement tod evelop in the 4 years time? Or they will simply announce they will govern together?

Just that they will govern together. They will almost certainly agree on an agenda for the government and announce the main points to the public, but they are not obliged to.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015 on: September 02, 2015, 01:15:35 pm
Can still be claimed that the FO is more socially conservative with Sonja J. the third in votes?

It looks like FO went to bed in a convent and woke up in London Soho.

Nah, they are just slowly catching up to the rest of Scandinavia. There are several gay MPs in the other Scandinavian countries and we even have a gay chairman for our Conservatives. There are parts of Western Norway and rural Finland that are as SoCon as the Faroes, but not in Denmark.

At the moment we have two gay party leaders and one gay deputy leader, plus one bisexual deputy leader in our nine parties with representation in Parliament, so LGBT people are actually over represented at the top of Danish politics. It will take decades before a Conservative Faroese party gets a gay leader or even MP.
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