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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: How would a Free Scotland be politically different from the UK? on: September 19, 2014, 10:05:30 pm
So, Scotland would be the fiscal conservatives, and Britain would be the social conservatives right??? amirite???

Twenty years ago it would actually be the other way round. Now Scotland is mostly Liberal in the US sense.

(or: "lame joke is lame", to quote Kitteh)

It's a reference to a now-infamous post from outofbox6, who claimed that "Western Ukraine is more fiscally conservative while Eastern Ukraine is more socially conservative"

Exactly, and it is a lame joke.
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Edinburgh on: September 19, 2014, 09:56:52 pm
One of the finest and most beautiful cities in Europe. Studied a semester on UoE and there is no major city in the UK I would rather live in.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: How would a Free Scotland be politically different from the UK? on: September 19, 2014, 09:33:10 pm
So, Scotland would be the fiscal conservatives, and Britain would be the social conservatives right??? amirite???

Twenty years ago it would actually be the other way round. Now Scotland is mostly Liberal in the US sense.

(or: "lame joke is lame", to quote Kitteh)
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Hot or Not: Elena Ritchie on: September 19, 2014, 09:21:21 pm
Your sig is basically saying that the poorer areas in and around Glasgow with many Catholic Hiberno-Scots and non-White immigrants are fake Scotland, while the most Presbyterian "Old Scots" areas are the real Scotland. That's kinda problematic...
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: If you don't think you have any racial prejudices, you better watch this video on: September 19, 2014, 08:46:08 pm

Stupid. I thought it would link to an actual experiment.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The West Lothian Question? on: September 19, 2014, 08:33:40 pm
I'm inclined to go for English votes on English laws, although that does raise the potentially thorny question of what happens when the opposition party has a majority of seats in England.

The biggest problem with ELOEV in Britain is that it is ill suited to a two party system - and therefore FPTP. If you go by English votes on English laws the government needs a majority in both the UK and England. If one party doesn't get it, then there needs to be a coalition or its gridlock. EVOEL works better with PR and a multiparty system where you normally relatively easy could form coalitions with both a UK and an England majority.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 07:28:31 pm
A short resume of a poll from Lord Ashcroft Polls on why Scots voted no. The entire study can be found on http://lordashcroftpolls.com/.

All age groups below 55, except (interestingly) 18-24 (52% No), voted Yes. But pensioners voted No with 73% and there are a lot of old folks in Scotland Smiley.

Best Yes group 16-17 (71%), second best 25-34 (59%).

45% of Yes voters think there will be a new referendum within 5 years, 25% of No voters think  its settled forever. Talk about wishfull thinking!

47% of No voters mention economic issues as their most important reason to vote No.

Gender gap was only 3% point.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/7-fascinating-insights-into-why-scotland-voted-against-indep#1mgriif
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 07:02:32 pm
538 on why the polls where off. We have covered all of the factors at one point or another, but if someone wants the arguments presented in one place its a decent article:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-pollsters-think-they-underestimated-no-in-scotland/
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Fiji general election - September 17 2014 on: September 19, 2014, 05:11:12 pm
The Election Commission has declared the election to be free and fair despite the complaints - no surprise there of course.

They are finished counting the personal votes in roughly half the precincts and there are a few surprises.

The final results are said to be published Sunday or at the very latest Monday.

The Commonwealth General Secretary Kamalesh Sharma has also approved the election and commended the Fijian government for is administration and organization of it, so it looks like their suspension is going to be revoked.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: If you could bring one former poster, who would that be? on: September 19, 2014, 04:56:21 pm
Lewis.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite country of the United Kingdom on: September 19, 2014, 03:50:32 pm
Torn between Wales and Scotland, both among my favourite countries, but gotta go with Scotland, if forced to choose, because of the Highlands, Shetland and greater cultural closeness in general.
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The West Lothian Question? on: September 19, 2014, 03:16:25 pm
As a Dane I always wonder why this is so hard, because we have solved this quite easily.

We too have a conglomerate state with a common parliament where the vast majority (98%) of the population lives in the biggest unit - which doesn't have a separate parliament, while two smaller countries have their own. Our WLQ (which is relevant in close votes) is simply solved with Greenlandic and Faroese MPs not voting on bills that are only relevant for Denmark. This is done by tradition and mutual consensus (so not part of our written constitution), but is a well established custom that everyone follows. Such an informal and pragmatic arrangement would seem to be very British.

So since you have an unwritten constitution based on custom and tradition, is it not possible to simply agree that Welsh, Northern Irish and Scottish MPs don't vote on English bills and establish this as a constitutional custom?  

(There are of course some important differences: England has about 85% of your population, so its less dominant than Denmark in its state = possibility for a non-"main country" majority in parliament, and the size of the countries involved is much larger, but the fundamentals are the same)
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mozambique presidential and parliamentary elections - 15 October 2014 on: September 19, 2014, 02:58:19 pm
This isn't going all that well (violence, abuse of public funds etc) allthough probably not worse than one could expect.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201409181626.html

The circumstances of the election are rather special since RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama only came out of hiding in the bush on September 4 after fighting government forces for a couple of years together with some of his old guerrillas from the 80s and early 90s.

Dhlakama then returned to the capital Maputo to sign a peace deal together with President Armando Guebuzaique, ending his two-year conflict with FRELIMO government forces, which the old rebel leader launched after accusing the state of reneging on the Rome General Peace Accords from 1992 that ended Mozambique’s brutal civil war (1977-92).

(the real problem being the RENAMO bosses don't get a cut of all the lucrative business deals in the energy sector and big construction/infrastructure projects)
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 02:40:00 pm
Which means we also know more or less exactly who the twenty to thirty percent of Labour supporters (as highlighted by basically every poll) who voted Yes are. It makes a degree of logical sense; less attachment to the British state and - in a more functional sense - to the rest of the UK.

(Btw, have you ever considered a variant of 'this thing of ours' a generic jokey semi-euphemism for it?)

It's a shame that we don't have lower level results, because I'm now fairly sure that ethnoreligious background was a factor.

Evidently. Excluding Dundee it seems that support for independence was actually at it's highest in the areas that were Labour's last stand in 2011. Which in turn also correlated to 'thethingyouretalkingabout.'

So SNP projecting socially and culturally inclusive nationalism backfired and anti-Catholic bigotry resurfaced? But why now? SNP's has had broadly the same concept since Salmond got control of the party. Was it just because it got serious now?

The areas that voted strongly in favour of independence were more than likely areas with high Catholic populations. What's important to note that these areas in 2011 also (and this was most clearly seen within Glasgow itself at that time) remained Labour 'boltholes' in an otherwise sea of yellow that year. For that reason, with a bit of intuition, it seemed to me that in west central Scotland those who voted Labour in 2011 may have been more inclined to vote Yes in 2014. What is also striking, excluding E.Duns and E.Ren, the borders, and the islands which have their own special way of thinking is that the parts of the country where the SNP was strong didn't back Yes, or indeed backed No much more heavily.

These areas of the country are richer, have faster growing populations, low Catholic populations and high areas of 'No Religion' in the census amongst the young and high levels of Presbyterianism amongst the old. One would have expected the opposite result across the country. It would be helpful, though it is impossible to see, what the results by council would have been with the over 65's stripped back.

What is all the more curious is that Catholics in 1979 were less inclined to back the Assembly on the basis that there was a not too illegitimate fear that Scotland would become another Ulster. At that time there was a feeling that unionism (not that Catholics ever backed political Unionism in the Scottish sense) was a stalwart against state Presbyterianism.

I don't think there was anything remotely anti-Catholic about the vote. Given that it is likely that Yes led amongst almost all age groups until those in their 60's if anything the map doesn't tell us as much as it ought to. There's a bit of a 'grey mist' that makes meaningful interpretation difficult.


Well, I though a resurface of anti-Catholicism at this point sounded weird, but then Al made the reference to the Orange Order march.

This reverse pattern with Labour/Irish/Catholic areas voting Yes and SNP/"Old Scottish" Presbyterian/Agnostic areas voting No is really strange, even if it correlates with a socio-economic geographical and/or demograhic divide. Could SNP have avoided it with a different type of campaign?

The point about most under 60 voters being Yes is of course important.

What do you think of the turnout at 82,1% of all voters/84,6 of registered?  Worse than you expected or fine? Had Yes won with a 90%+ turnout IYO?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 01:37:13 pm
It's a shame that we don't have lower level results, because I'm now fairly sure that ethnoreligious background was a factor.

Evidently. Excluding Dundee it seems that support for independence was actually at it's highest in the areas that were Labour's last stand in 2011. Which in turn also correlated to 'thethingyouretalkingabout.'

So SNP projecting socially and culturally inclusive nationalism backfired and anti-Catholic bigotry resurfaced? But why now? SNP's has had broadly the same concept since Salmond got control of the party. Was it just because it got serious now?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 01:10:57 pm
This sums it up pretty well:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/06/snp-nicola-sturgeon-alex-salmond-scottish-independence-referendum
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 12:52:10 pm
I assume all the jokes about a PM called Salmond whose second-in-command is called Sturgeon have already been made long before I became aware of this fact, but regarldess...

ROFLMAO!!!

What is life like in the Sea N Pee? Is it a dogfish eat dogfish world? Is everyone united for a common porpoise? Or do they all split off in their own special groupers? Well, one tragic story indicates it's not so perfect down there.

"There was once a brilliant Sturgeon on the staff of the Scottish community health fishility. She was in fact one of it's flounders. Wiser than Salmond, a fin fellow who would never shrimp from his responsibilities, she was successful and happy and always whistled a happy tuna.
One day one of her patients, a mere whipper snapper, started trouting around telling everyone the Sturgeon's treatments had made him more eel than he had been and conked her with a malpractice suit.
Well, the Sturgeon was in a real pickeral. The board chased her off the staff and demanded her oyster. But fortunately the case smelt to high heaven so the judge denied the plaintiff's clam.
The board tried to hire the Sturgeon back but by then she had hit the bottlenose pretty hard. But what's really shad about the story is that the Sturgeon ended up on squid-row..."




18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Mozambique presidential and parliamentary elections - 15 October 2014 on: September 19, 2014, 12:33:10 pm
Thought we should make a thread with less than a month to go. Current President is barred from running again, so they'll get a new leader. They also elect the Assembleia da República with 250 members and provincial assemblies.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozambican_general_election,_2014


Parties:

FRELIMO (Mozambique Liberation Front), the old Marxist guerrillas turned pro-business party of power
RENAMO Mozambican National Resistance), the old South Africa backed "contras" fighting FRELIMO
MDM, pro-democracy breakaway from RENAMO founded by Beira Mayor Daviz Simango

Presidential candidates:

Filipe Nyussi (FRELIMO)
Alfonso Dhlakama (RENAMO)
Daviz Simango (MDM)
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the Previous Poster's Signature: The Wrath of Khan on: September 19, 2014, 11:49:08 am
So what do you hate about the IRC in particular?

Huh

It's not a quote about the IRC. It just so happened to be posted on IRC. But I put it in my sig because I think it is the most perfectly fitting description for so many things.


SKIP

HuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuh

SKIP

Sanchez was pretty obviously joking - and you missed it, that's all.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: France General Discussion II: Living under Marxism on: September 19, 2014, 09:39:14 am
Marine le Pen vs. Sarkozy in the second round?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Sweden election results thread (Sept 14, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 09:22:27 am
This thread is getting way too sage for its own good.

What do you expect? Its a Sweden thread without any Swedes to give us some proper analysis (most of them are probably drowning their sorrows, Gustaf might actually be celebrating). Idle speculation, sagery and rhetorical grand standing is bound to fill the void.

Why would I be celebrating?

The "leftists" managing to throw away what looked like a certain victory, likely paving the way for a swift return of the centre-right in a couple of years. For an Alliance supporter this result is as good as it could realistically get.

Anyway, that post was obviously not 100% serious.

So according to val.se, the official results have just finished to be counted a couple minutes ago. Tongue

Turnout is at 85.80% (+1.23), the highest figure since 199
4. The only good thing to come out of this election, I guess.

And 1,21% higher than the Scottish referendum - a testimony to the failure of Scotland's Choice that they couldn't get a higher turnout for their nation's choice of a lifetime than a regular Scandinavian parliamentary election.

The British and Americans could learn a thing or two from the Swedes. Hold an election, get a result that's 99,9% accurate in 4 hours and then finish the "fine counting" in 4,5 days. That's the way to do it.

As much as I like to be smug about every superior quality in all things Scandinavian, and I do like that very much...

No one should have Swedish style ballots, no one are harmed by the fact it took a night to count the Scottish vote, but th Swedish semi-open ballot do harm people by bringing a social pressure to be open about your vote and thereby votes for the right party or parties.

Wasn't talking about their ballots at all.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 08:56:51 am
This was far from a "neat" and well structured result. Lots of quirks and oddities. I wonder if we without an exit poll will ever really know in depth exactly what happened?

A politologist from University of Strathclyde said that level of unemployment was actually the best correlation of Yes votes, so poor, run down areas vote Yes and well to do No is the overall pattern. The second - unsurprisingly - being if one identified with being British. Also important was large "immigrant" population from the rest of Britain and abroad vs.native Scots. But generally the pattern seems to be more complex than in an average election or referendum.

Regarding SNP strategy they seemed to mostly have been successful with promising a better future to the disfortunate (what Al calls utopia, I would say genuine Social Democracy..), and not with their centre-right voters among the Tartan Tories in rural and small town Scotland, who voted with their vallets.



 
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Fiji general election - September 17 2014 on: September 19, 2014, 06:20:38 am
Its getting late again in the South Pacific and while turnout results from obscure village halls on faraway islands keep coming in we may have to wait until tomorrow for the final result.

Even if there likely was massive fraud SODELPA also ran a bad campaign, as exiled Indo-Fijian journalist and corruption fighter Victor Lal puts it after learning his own brother voted for his persecutors in Fiji First:

"All my warnings to SODELPA campaign apparatchiks and top leadership came true: PLEASE stop parroting on chiefs, church, GCC, qoliqoli, and land and indigenous rights. A vast majority of commoner urban and progressive Fijians, especially native Fijian youth voters, are not interested in these issues. And worst, it will frighten the hell out of voters - native Fijians, Indo-Fijians and Others - will conclude that a vote for Sodelpa on these issues will translate to a vote for another COUP."

#GCC is the abolished Great Council of Chiefs
# qoliqoli areas are beach, lagoon and reef, which were tranferred to indigenous land owners from the state in 2006

24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Oxford School of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts IV on: September 19, 2014, 05:43:36 am
This thread: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=198977.0
With an honourable mention to:

Scotland is Vermont? 

I was thinking more like West Virginia or Western Pennsylvania. 
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014) on: September 19, 2014, 05:26:55 am
For what its worth the unofficial leaks from those counting says its 53-47 No. Just in case anybody wants to go to bed...

Spot on. It turned out to be 53,08% No and 46,92 Yes. Glad I didn't wait up!
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