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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Zambia presidential by-election - no later than January 26 2015 on: Today at 06:48:30 am
From Zambia Report:

"Among those said to be vying to be elected as presidential candidate for the PF include;

1. Defence Minister, Justice Minister and PF Secretary General, Edgar Lungu

2. Former Defence Minister, Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba (GBM)

3. Former Secretary General and former Justice Minister, Wynter Kabimba

4. Mayor of Lusaka and president's son, Mulenga Sata (but has Malawian mother...)

5. Finance Minister, Alexander Bwalya Chikwanda

6. Sports Minister, Chishimba Kambwili

7. Deputy Minister of Commerce, Miles Sampa

8. Former Foreign Affairs Minister and former PF Spokesperson, Given Lubinda. (but has Swedish father...)

Others said to be in the race include, "Bashi Nono" Robert Sichinga, Minister of Commerce and Industry, Foreign Affairs Minister Harry Kalaba and a wild card being drawn from Panji Kaunda, Deputy Minister of Works, Supply, Transport and Communication.

THE OPPOSITION

For the opposition, shifting of cards is also underway. Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND), who has been attempting to win the presidency since 2006, hopes that this opportunity gives him the presidency.

The UPND has institutional stability and despite its losses in the last few years, hopes to finally grab power from the PF taking advantage and preying on the internal strife in the ruling party.

Others of interest and waiting in the in the wings include Nevers Mumba, leader of the former ruling party, MMD, who is attempt to fend off Rupiah Banda's recent manauevres.

Others are Elias Chipimo of NAREP, a youthful leader that has never taken advantage of the youth, a block vote that determines who becomes president.

But of interest are speculations about Rupiah Banda's return to politics and his efforts to be the "Opposition's" candidate. Young people are alarmed at the prospect of another old leader. So Banda's chances are dim, as he has to look for a party vehicle to sponsor him and face an electorate that rejected him just three years ago.

Others attempting to seize the chance at the presidency include upstarts like Dora Siliya's Genuine Peoples Platform (GPP) which will join Mike Mlongoti's People's Party (PP), Dr. Fred Mutesa, of the Zambia Empowerment and Development (ZED) and a plethora of many small political parties."


There are three different camp in PF trying to get the party presidency, each having their own financiers trying to bribe members of the 50 seat strog Central Comitee and this needs to be settlled before they can chose a presidential candidate. But it seems Nevers should be the MDM candidate without too much trouble as Banda is considered a has-been.

Notice that both Kabimba and Lubinda (both charismatic guys) have been fired. Kabimba  for corruption and Lubinda for allgedly  "selling party secrets to the Daily Nation and the opposition".
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which Pope is the preceding poster most like? on: Today at 06:14:23 am
Pius X
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which will be harder to fix: New Orleans after Katrina or Detroit, Michigan on: October 31, 2014, 10:13:50 pm
Motown.
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which British Prime Minister Is the Above Poster Most Like? on: October 31, 2014, 09:22:07 pm
Lord Liverpool.
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the degrowth movement on: October 31, 2014, 09:15:48 pm
Like Marxism or Anarchy, it's the best direction and ultimately it's right that growth has to curbed at some point, but ultimately far too naive.


Its a false comparison. There is a huge difference between societal and social goals, which we can live without, and natural boundaries for resource depletion where we don't really have a choice.

Its ultimately a "gun to your head"-situation.

Eternal growth is a very naive idea.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the degrowth movement on: October 31, 2014, 09:09:27 pm
What is your opinion of the degrowth movement?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degrowth

Would you support a political party with this agenda?

A steady state economy is a more attainable goal and would function better, but we could get to the point where actual degrowth is necessary.

In principle some growth can be obtained without increased resource consumption.

The burden of proof is on those who think  eternal growth is possible.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Belgian ministers and their role model function ... on: October 31, 2014, 06:37:14 pm

If I were mean I would say that obesity and francophonie. Tongue

De Block is Flemish.
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Do you believe Senator Lindsey Graham is gay? on: October 31, 2014, 05:01:57 pm
The only complicating factor is that a lot of Southern men seem gay to me.  Maybe it's the accent, I don't know.
Perhaps the "Southern dandy" archetype still lingers in Southern culture?

Could be.  I think it's the accent which seems a bit effeminate, it's the same with people from England. 

There are loads of English accents, which ones do you find effeminate? Received pronounciation?
9  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Belgian ministers and their role model function ... on: October 31, 2014, 04:31:54 pm
If you have decayed teeth you can't even become a dental assistant...

Such discrimination would be illegal in many countries.
10  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: How does this forum full of young left-wing whites define "blackness"? on: October 31, 2014, 04:29:56 pm
Ethnicity is a social construct.

... yes....?

...I would love to read, whether that had anything to do with defining blackness or if it was a comment on my post.

It means that there's little point in trying to "define" it.

Depends how interested you ar in Atlas as a "subculture". Social constructs are a constant negotiation and  it is potentially interesting how we as a group define a concept like blackness compared to how other groups and society at large do it, since the forum is so unrepresentative.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can't we just have one thread for Election Night results? on: October 31, 2014, 04:21:17 pm
As much as I appreciate Tender's initiative in making individual threads, I think this is the best solution:

Four in my opinion

1) House Races
2) Senate Races
3) Gubernatorial contests
4) Down ballot initiatives.  

Of course, what pages do we put these on, the polling ones or the main pages ?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greenland parliamentary election - November 28, 2014 on: October 31, 2014, 03:49:00 pm
New poll from HS Analyse published in weekly Sermitsiaq. They will have another one out on November 21, but that is likely all we get. 2013 result in brackets.

Siumut 34,5% 11 (-3)
IA 40,8% 13 (+3)
Naleraq 9,6% 3 (+3)
Atassut 6,7% 2 (-)
Democrats 6,2% 2 (-)
Partii Inuit 1,6% 0 (-2)
Independents 0,6% 0 (-)
Total 100% 31

This is a lot better for Siumut than expected, so the voters seem to have received new chairman Kim Kielsen well. The big joker is that 30% are undecided and former Siumut voters are overrepresented among them. Since Greenlandic voters generally break heavily towards parties that are gaining Siumut breakaway Naleraq could very well get much higher.

IA is losing 1 seat compared to September and has been sliding since May when they polled 46%. Sermitsiaq speculates that a result like this could lead to an IA/Naleraq coalition as both parties are against uranium mining, but populist Naleraq would be a risky partner for IA.
IA and their former partner the Democrats lack a seat to get a majority.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Without looking, which sacrificial lambs do you recognize? (Gov. edition) on: October 31, 2014, 02:41:09 pm
haha wait there's an actual candidate named Charlie Brown

http://www.charliebrownforcongress.org/

Ex Lt. Colonel in the US Air Force.

14  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Do you believe Senator Lindsey Graham is gay? on: October 31, 2014, 01:40:38 pm
Don't know, don't care, and since he hasn't a history of making comments on gay rights (a la Steve King) that would really come back to haunt him if he were, I don't see where it matters.

Graham scores 0% by the Human Rights Campaign on gay rights, he supports a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage and voted Yes on banning gay adoptions in DC. You could say that it comes with the territory of being a Southern Republican, but it is still enough to make it relevant whether he is gay or not.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Which time do you prefer? on: October 31, 2014, 12:59:15 pm
Daylight savings is awful.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Gully Foyle's African News Thread on: October 31, 2014, 12:56:02 pm
Robert Mugabe yesterday publicly asked his supporters to dump VP Joice Mujuru and her supporters at the December 2-7 ZANU-PF party congress.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201410310112.html
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Election Night - Drink of Choice? on: October 31, 2014, 12:46:35 pm

Sweet tea (not 21)

Either you guys are extremely law abiding or major league hypocrites.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Aristotle vs Plato on: October 31, 2014, 12:41:44 pm
48 state landslide to Aristotle, I'd give Massachusetts and Vermont to Plato.

Looking forward to Nathan's comment on that evaluation.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Simple Truths Silver Mine on: October 31, 2014, 12:32:37 pm
Context:

Water (not 21)

America is a strange place.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Zambia presidential by-election - no later than January 26 2015 on: October 31, 2014, 12:28:32 pm
The latest development in the PF power struggle is that Fred M’membe apparently is trying to recruit Michael Sata's son Mulenga Sata as VP for either a Kabimba or Scott ticket in order to harvest sympathy votes. The back up plan for "The Cartel" is according to Zambia Report to make an alliance with Hakainde Hichilema and support him against concessions if they fail to field their own man as the PF candidate.

A Guy Scott/Mulenga Sata ticket would be a provocation to many since Mulenga's mother is born in Malawi and only entered Zambia in 1967, three years after independence, so even if you interpret the parentage clause as only applying to the post-independence period he is not eligible to become President in case Scott dies.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Zambia presidential by-election - no later than January 26 2015 on: October 31, 2014, 12:07:43 pm
Activist Chilufya Tayali director of the Zambian Voice citizen involvememt NGO will challenge the appointment of Scott in court, the interesting thing is he will likely be joined by PF Youth.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: Aristotle vs Plato on: October 31, 2014, 08:10:36 am
50 state landslide to Aristotle.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Mozambique presidential and parliamentary elections - 15 October 2014 on: October 31, 2014, 06:17:22 am
The National Elections Commission (CNE) has approved the results of the election giving victory to Filipe Nyusi as president with 57% of the vote and Frelimo with 144 of 250 seats in parliament.

The results are close to those predicted by the parallel sample count. But CNE only approved the results by a 10-7 majority, with opposition nominees and some civil society reps voting against. Renamo today filed a formal protest.

CNE was required by law to report today, but  is continuing its investigations into a wide range of complaints including late opening of polling stations, conflicting numbers in different copies of some results sheets (editas), suspected ballot box stuffing, reports of pre-marked ballots in circulation, and opposition ballots improperly made invalid by polling station staff.  Some editais are also missing, but they don't identify how many.

The official results:

Turnout: 48.64%.

President:

Filipe Nyusi 2,761,025 - 57.03%
Afonso Dhlakama 1,762,260 - 36.61%
Daviz Simango 306,884 - 6.36%

Parliament:

Frelimo 144
Renamo 89
MDM 17

Total seats in the 10 provincial parliaments (Maputo City doesn't have a parliament):

Frelimo 485
Renamo 295
MDM 31

A total of 754,113 ballot papers considered invalid at polling stations were sent to Maputo and reconsidered by the CNE, and 174,614 were accepted as valid. This means 23% were accepted, which is higher than in previous elections. Of 466 protested votes, 323 were accepted as valid.

By comparison, the 2009 results were:

Turnout 44.63%

President:

Armando Guebuza 75.01%
Afonso Dhlakama 16.41%
Daviz Simango 8.59%

Parliament:

Frelimo 191
Renamo 51
MDM 8 (only allowed to run in 4 provinces)


MDM joins Renamo in rejection of the results

Like Renamo MDM has rejected the result because misconduct was too widespread. Daviz Simango has demanded that the general elections should be annulled.
In a statement Simango has expressed his “profound sorrow because these elections were stained by an unequal combat during the election campaign, and in proven acts of fraud and violence they have now had final discredit”. The results were “not credible, bearing in mind the countless reports of irregularities denounced by us and known by all of society”.

There was no hint in Simango's statement that MDM will take to the streets against the results, or that its elected MPs will refuse to take their streets.

The problem for MDM is the same as for Renamo. They were part of the electoral apparatus with MDM representatives on all election commissions - on the CNE itself, and on every provincial, district and city elections commission.
MDM polling station monitors did not submit a single appeal or complaint on time to the district courts, which handle all protests against events at the polling stations.

According to the Supreme Court, between them Frelimo, Renamo and the MDM only submitted 24 appeals to the district courts. All the ones from Renamo and MDM either contained no evidence, were submitted beyond the deadline of 48 hours after close of polls, or were addressed to the wrong body (provincial rather than district courts).
The only avenue still open to MDM is an appeal to the Constitutional Council - Mozambique's highest body in matters of constitutional and electoral law.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Romania 2014 - 2/16 November 2014 on: October 31, 2014, 05:30:56 am
Basescu has accused Ponta of being a spy!

“Victor Ponta has to admit being an undercover officer for the Foreign Intelligence Agency [SIE] between 1997 and 2001. I have clear evidence of this and am ready to prove my words”

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/spying-rows-dominates-romania-s-presidential-elections
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Romania 2014 - 2/16 November 2014 on: October 31, 2014, 05:26:54 am
Ponta will get around 40% according to recent polls. Only 52,6% expects to vote according to the latest poll.

"Latest data suggest that Ponta will get around 40 per cent in the first round on November 2, well ahead of the likely runner up, the candidate of the rightist opposition coalition, Klaus Iohannis. Ponta is then expected to win the run-off, which takes place two weeks later."

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/low-turnout-expected-in-romanian-presidential-election
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