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July 23, 2017, 07:42:40 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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26  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: al-Baghdadi dead: Syrian Observatory for Human Rights on: July 11, 2017, 12:56:52 pm
I won't believe it until ISIS itself admits it.

Not that I trust ISIS, but when terrorist organizations say "yep our leader is dead", he's probably dead.
27  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Hypothetical 2018 Egyptian Presidential Election on: July 11, 2017, 12:53:26 pm
This election is fortunately not happening, but I'd write in Sisi.
Yes, because supporting a dictator is so noble.
28  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: CO: Perlmutter Dropping Out on: July 10, 2017, 05:28:40 pm
Aw, I wanted to see a trend of Colorado governors with goofy surnames...
29  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-03: Any thoughts? on: July 10, 2017, 05:20:57 pm
Well, since no Democrat in hell will ever stand a chance in this district, I guess Curtis is the man to pull for. I'll take an establishment Utah Republican over the far-right likes of Chaffetz any day.
Chaffetz is far-right? Chaffetz is your run of the mill establishment Republican. I support Herrod, he was the Cruz Chairman in UT for 2016.
Chaffetz was the original "challenge the incumbent for heresies on immigration" proto-Tea Party type. That's how he beat Chris Cannon, and he hasn't moved left or right since, everyone else has just been moving that way.
30  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: NDP Leadership Convention 2017 (2018) on: July 10, 2017, 05:18:49 pm
So why isn't Singh "catching fire", so to speak? He seems like an obvious front-runner for the NDP leadership, especially since he seems to have the charisma that the other candidates lack.
31  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Study: cities rely more on fines for revenue if they have more black residents on: July 10, 2017, 05:15:18 pm
Blue lives matter.

Blue incomes matter, you mean.
32  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you support a New Deal style public works program for Appalachia? on: July 08, 2017, 02:26:30 pm
Obviously not. The New Deal is a horrible fiscal policy, especially when our national debt is 20 trillion.

Sure, but here's the thing: who is going to collect on the debt? Anyone who makes a serious attempt to collect will crash their own economy too.
33  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you vote for a robot (ai) president? on: July 08, 2017, 02:24:52 pm
Yes, of course.
34  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: IF you live in Utah ONLY Who will you support in November 2018 on: July 08, 2017, 12:50:29 am
McMullin, and the Democrat if he doesn't run. We already know a Democrat can't win here, so might as well take a chance with an independent McMullin.
35  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Is the United States the greatest country in the world? on: July 07, 2017, 03:34:03 pm
It could be.
36  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Election that never was: Tory Leadership Round 1 on: July 07, 2017, 11:55:40 am
Warsi because why not?
37  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Best and Worst Governors of the Past 25 Years: Utah on: July 07, 2017, 11:54:24 am
Bangerter was actually pretty good, and relatively moderate. So he's the best.

And Herbert is a corrupt "good 'ol boy" who in a less Republican state would have been thrown out of office.
38  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-03: Any thoughts? on: July 06, 2017, 11:37:08 pm
Most of the candidates have already been chosen at the respective conventions.

From politics1.com

District 3 - Special Election 2017:
Filing Deadline (Major Parties): May 26, 2017
Filing Deadline (Independents): June 12, 2017
Primary: August 15, 2017 - General: November 7, 2017
[ Jason Chaffetz (R)* - Resigned effective June 30, 2017. ]
Tanner Ainge (R) - Businessman, Attorney & Son of Boston Celtics GM Danny Ainge
John Curtis (R) - Provo Mayor, Businessman & '07 State Rep. Candidate
Chris Herrod (R) - Ex-State Rep., Loan Officer, Ex-Teacher & '12 US Sen. Candidate
Kathryn Allen (D) - Physician
Jason Christensen (IAP) - Audio Systems Consultant & Frequent Candidate
Joe Buchman (Libt) - State Party Chair, College Professor, '08 US Rep. Nom & '16 State Sen. Nom.
Jim Bennett (United Utah) - Party Exec. Director, Marketing Writer & Son of Ex-US Sen Bob Bennett
Sean Whalen (Ind) - Businessman & Motivational Speaker
Russell Paul Roesler (Write-In)

I expect Chris Herrod to win the Republican Primary.  He also won at the Republican convention.
Republican primary voters are significantly more moderate-ish than convention voters. For example, they overwhelmingly chose Governor Herbert over his convention-backed far-right opponent Jonathan Johnson last year, and in 2012 primary voters gave Hatch the win over his far-right challenger Dan Dan Liljenquist.

So convention voters choose the conservative firebrand, and primary voters generally choose the establishment-y types. That's how it usually goes in Utah, though only a few convention battles went to a primary because of the rules.

So I would argue that Curtis has the best shot at winning the primary, though Tanner Ainge might split the non-convention vote and allow Herrod to win.

Not much else is of note on that list, besides Jim Bennett's ability to be on the ballot as a United Utah candidate being in question due to not filing on time. He may have to settle for being an Independent with UUP backing.

Also Jason Christensen of the IAP is of note solely because last year, also as a IAP candidate, he said that a LGBT teen who committed suicide "committed the sins of homosexuality and murder". Also, he has run against John Curtis before, as has Herrod.
39  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: So apparently Hobby Lobby is now an Indiana Jones villain? on: July 06, 2017, 11:20:48 pm
There's no way the higher ups didn't know about this. Their whole "thing" is being a Biblical-focused, "Christian" business. They knew they were getting artifacts illegally.
40  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Are these the dumbest people on DailyKos? on: July 06, 2017, 01:40:29 pm
Daily Kos users are f**king insufferable, yes. I used to read Daily Kos Elections pretty regularly until Dave Nir started his "Anyone who criticizes Hillary Clinton gets banned" policy, and pretty much purged the site of anyone not mentally stuck in 2005. Kos himself is also a massive idiot.

The last time I checked in the comments section was calling Jeremy Corbyn too radical for the UK and agonizing over him not resigning.

To be fair, DKE is slowly turning towards being impressed with Corbyn, and making fun of how weak May is.

And primary talk overall is banned, and always has been.
41  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How is Kamala Harris a better candidate than Hillary Clinton on: July 06, 2017, 12:10:45 am
She doesn't have the baggage.

Oh, she has plenty of baggage. She was a DA and there will be some case where didn't prosecute 'XX bad guy' or gave a plea bargain to this bad guy.
That's nothing compared to Trump or Clinton (or even Bernie)'s baggage.
42  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NPR Tweeted Declaration Of Independence, Trump Supporters Flip Out on: July 05, 2017, 11:19:17 pm
At least some of the Tea Party read the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution; this new breed of Trumpist conservative hasn't even done that.
43  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Police find drugs, gay sex, in top Papal Adviser's apartment on: July 05, 2017, 11:17:11 pm
Sounds like a party.
44  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-03: Any thoughts? on: July 05, 2017, 11:14:33 pm
He isn't running in the special this year, however. And I think he wants to go for Senator in 2018 instead of the House anyway.
45  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which Christian Right Candidate Do You Prefer? on: July 05, 2017, 11:06:15 pm
Santorum wasn't a complete idiot (thanks Carson), and neither was he anti-Mormon (thanks Huck), so Santorum wins by default I guess.
46  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Battlefield Casualties and BallotBox Defeat:Did the Bush-Obama Wars Cost Clinton on: July 04, 2017, 11:55:34 am
Don't they realize that she has suffered too by having to dodge sniper fire?
Yes, that was a dumb statement, but not one that needs to be dwelled on.
47  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: UT-03: Any thoughts? on: July 04, 2017, 11:48:40 am
How do you think the new UUP will do?
Less than 5%. They couldn't even formally register for a party in time, and if they get on the ballot, it'll only be due to a judge's order. They're a mess.

As for the Democrat, they'll get 35% at best.

The real question is which Republican will win the primary:

1) Former state representative Chris Herrod, a proto-Trumpist who was anti-immigration, anti-refugee, and an angry loudmouth long before Trump, and who is the choice of the convention delegates.

2) Provo Mayor John Curtis, an ideological moderate or pragmatist who is absurdly popular in Provo, the population center of the district (something like 80+ percent approval). He ran as a Democrat for state senate in 2000, which is something he'll be attacked on.

3) Tanner Ainge, son of BYU basketball and Boston Celtics legend Danny Ainge. Has no concrete views or policies. I consider him a trust fund kid, since his most notable feature is throwing his dad's money around to get on the primary ballot via signature gathering.

Of the three, I think Curtis is the front-runner and most likely to win. Herrod was chosen as the delegate choice, but he's much too conservative for a primary electorate. Ainge is a trust fund kid with no ideological backing. Curtis, however, has high name recognition and is beloved by most Provoans, and will likely have support in the more moderate part of the district in Salt Lake County.
48  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: When will Josh Mandel win an Ohio Senate seat? on: July 04, 2017, 12:00:37 am
When he looks older than 12.
49  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: US SEN 2018: Will any Senators run unopposed? on: July 02, 2017, 01:51:25 am
Who will our sacrificial lamb in Utah be this time?

It appears to be Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson, whose dad Ted Wilson (a former Salt Lake City Mayor himself), challenged Hatch in the 80s and did fairly well. Jenny herself isn't a bad candidate either, she's not a fire-breathing ultra-progressive.

She'll still lose, but cracking 35-40% might be possible.
50  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Appalachian Wrestling's Greatest Villain: 'The Progressive Liberal' on: July 02, 2017, 01:48:53 am


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