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April 27, 2017, 02:20:07 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 25, 2017, 01:07:09 pm
I see the people other than me have noted that David 'The Jews' Ward is indeed an endorsed Liberal Democrat candidate this election.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 24, 2017, 03:55:19 pm
One thing I'll remind everyone of, though, is that landslides and the patterns seen in them are ephemeral. Labour won a majority of seats in Shropshire in 1997 and 2001 for instance (in fact in 2001 the Conservatives were reduced to just one seat in the county). In a way they are the weirdest and least socially reflective of elections.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 24, 2017, 11:05:29 am
Wales had very odd politics during the inter-war years due to the resilience of the Liberal Party in the countryside, so comparisons aren't particularly useful (even if they do add to the psychological response to such figures).

Anyway, this fits within the general framework of YouGov's UK-wide polls so is basically as expected. Would be good (well useful) if other firms polled Wales a few times during the campaign actually.

It is worth noting, just for the record, that Welsh polling does have a long track record of exaggerating support for parties with obvious momentum, even more so than for UK-wide polls.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: April 23, 2017, 07:10:50 pm
Places like Vendée and Haut-de-Seine voting for the de facto "left-wing" candidate while doing terribly every working class area.

Not sure if it makes sense to think of Macron in such terms. He's the latest centrist huckster, except that in its current incarnation centrist hucksterism takes a higher share from the left than in its previous one (but not all previous ones).
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: April 2017 House Election on: April 23, 2017, 07:05:58 pm
1. Clyde
2. Simossad
3. Drew
4. Peebs
5. OneJ
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: April 23, 2017, 02:05:05 pm
Perhaps keep the Grade E level #analysis about GLOBAL TRENDS elsewhere and concentrate on the actual thing happening now?

Oh but who even cares.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: France 2017: Results Thread on: April 23, 2017, 01:33:17 pm
These results could have been a lot worse but are still very bad.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 22, 2017, 05:05:35 pm
It is absolutely a possibility, yes.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 22, 2017, 04:58:14 pm
Anyway there's a distinct possibility that the massive Tory figures (which are, we must note, not shown by everyone) may be like the LibDem surge in 2010 (or the smaller movement to Labour in 2015 even) in which real enthusiasm was picked up as real support (which it wasn't). There are also numerous instances of this happening in elections before then. But it's hard to discuss this sort of thing rationally without sounding like someone in denial, which is a comment in itself.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 22, 2017, 04:55:33 pm
ComRes is dogsh!t but Survation aren't much better. And tbh neither are YouGov, though they do have an excellent PR operation.
Has anyone got the "polling errors" for each pollster from the 2015 election and the 2016 referendum?

You would also want to throw the 2010 GE (which was another fiasco) into the mix.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 22, 2017, 04:52:10 pm
ComRes is dogsh!t but Survation aren't much better. And tbh neither are YouGov, though they do have an excellent PR operation.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 22, 2017, 12:45:45 pm
Theresa May: 49% approval/28% disapproval (net +21)

It's easy to mock firms like Opinium - and right to really - but this is a telling statistic. Those are by no means terrible figures, but they should not be leading to a potential landslide.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 22, 2017, 12:44:24 pm
Opinium;
Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5)

Amusingly blatant herding there.
14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Fremont Voting Booth: April 2017 Elections on: April 21, 2017, 06:52:57 pm
1.

Quote
LongLiveRock
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 21, 2017, 03:30:52 pm
The LibDems have just nominated an unrepentant racist at Bradford East.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 21, 2017, 01:43:37 pm
Because there's no prospect of winning a majority. But don't believe everything you read about campaign strategies (certainly such calculations would not be based on raw majorities - because that varies based on turnout and the size of constituencies - but percentage ones) or, frankly, most rumours repeated by journalists at all.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 20, 2017, 12:40:21 pm
But... lol.. I don't think it's possible to formulate a post that would bug Al any more than that one.

#triggered yes...
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 20, 2017, 02:03:50 am
Is there any way we can ban Americans from posting in this thread unless they pass an IQ test or something?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 19, 2017, 08:55:57 pm
Stop turning this thread into a sewer the lot of you.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 19, 2017, 01:01:04 pm
Tendencies of all sorts exist and people should be aware of them, but the circumstances of each election differ and the polling industry has changed a great deal.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 19, 2017, 11:24:20 am
Just deleted some FAKE NEWS I hope phew.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 19, 2017, 09:12:44 am
Could the table breakers please FIX THEIR POSTS thank you.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 18, 2017, 09:28:39 pm
On the bright side, polling is error-prone in the UK. Unfortunately, those errors are usually in favor of the Conservatives.

Labour were underpolled in 1983 and 2010 which is probably notable.

24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Unpleasant Kuckdom general election 2017: your vote? on: April 18, 2017, 09:27:02 pm
The Labour is pretty much dead to me in its current formation after the way they treated antisemitism inside their party, and their lack of fight against Brexit.

Lib Dem is the only acceptable option for me.

yeah um bout that
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, June 8th 2017 on: April 18, 2017, 01:45:21 pm
In fairness, the NHS crisis this winter was so historically bad that a Kinnock or a Blair (certainly) would have brought the government to it's knees on that one.

And was a direct result of governmental incompetence. Oh well.
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