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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Will Macron be a better President than Hollande? on: June 25, 2017, 05:14:19 pm
This is France we're talking about - 2 years from now he will have achieved absolutely zero meaningful reform and will be universally hated, just like all his predecessors

Yes. This is the life of the French President. It's a post that was drawn up to suit the particular personality of one very particular personality and the record of those in office after he resigned is what it is...
2  General Politics / Economics / Re: More evidence on the advantages of universal benefits (cc: Torie) on: June 25, 2017, 05:03:51 pm
Going the universal route rather than means testing, is a very expensive way...

Er... no. Universal benefits are pretty much always considerably cheaper than targeted benefits, even if the payments are set at the same level. Sometimes even if the universal ones are more generous. Why? Administrative costs. Means testing is expensive and often frankly uneconomic.
3  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: June 2017 Federal Election on: June 25, 2017, 04:36:52 pm
PRESIDENT

1. Bacon King and Ben Kenobi (HARAMBE FREEDOM PARTY TICKET)
2. Write-in: I now proceed to vote for the candidate who went the furthest in term of seeking support
3. Clyde1998/Siren (LAB)
3. Dfwlibertylover/Goldwater (FED)

HOUSE

1. Write-in: dial up internet connection
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Fremont Voting Booth : June 2017 elections on: June 25, 2017, 04:33:38 pm
Senate

1. Barnes (DA-Lab, WA)
2. Write-in: actual yeast I think. Yes. Yeast. You heard me. Yeast.

Prime Minister

1. Write-in: yeast again I think, yes...

House

1. Write-in: who are all these people
2. anty1961 (Ind-Lab, CA)
3. HenryWallaceVP (LDP-Lab, IA)

Ballot Measure One

1. Nay
2. Write-in: it's still grammatically incorrect folks! Sad!

Ballot Measure Two

1. Nay
2. Write-in: dangerous and sloppy language! Sad!
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: June 24, 2017, 02:22:11 pm
He's Mayor of London, rightly or wrongly voters might blame him too.

Housing is a matter for the borough councils, not the Mayor. This isn't New York. Even were that not the case he's only been in office a year.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 24, 2017, 10:15:06 am
Amazing, it's almost like working class people in Western Europe are still inclined to vote for left-wingers or something

Next thing you know you'll be telling me that the Tories paying for extremely expensive wrap-around newspaper adverts in Barnsley was the most hilarious waste of money in a British election ever.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French Legislative Election 2017 on: June 24, 2017, 06:27:31 am
Offhandedly, what intrigues me is that for all of FN's gains, they not only couldn't win anything in Panzergirl's strongest department, Aisne, but the strongest presidential FN constituency in Aisne actually went for the Socialists!

That constituency has somehow been held consistently by SFIO/PS since 1967 despite increasingly appalling Presidential results there. Think it may be their longest continually held seat now. It's a bunch of spectacularly bleak manufacturing towns, the sort of places you don't ever have to go through unless you actually live in them. But what it does show is the extent to which a lot of FN gains were basically gifted them by the Left going mad and running a thousand candidates per seat; Left candidates can beat the Fash in the properly grim parts of postindustrial Northern France, Macarons can't...
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 24, 2017, 06:06:41 am
Such takes miss out the key fact which is that an average polling lead of over 20pts at the start of the campaign turned into a final PV lead of 2.5pts...
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 23, 2017, 04:39:01 pm
Fun fact: back in 2010 the LibDems actually polled the most votes in Bristol. This year they polled just 4.8% in the city.
10  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: June 23, 2017, 04:29:49 pm
Seven more towers have been shown as having structures similar to Grenfell Tower.

I think you'll find that rather more than seven tower blocks in London are the productions of 1960s/70s system building...

The story is that X number of tower blocks have recently been fitted with similar exterior cladding to Grenfell Tower; not the same thing as structure...

Quote
This could be a huge problem for May, and for Sadiq Khan.

How the Hell would it be a problem for Khan?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 23, 2017, 03:54:10 pm
Define 'well' - e.g. those are historically low percentages in Mid Wales and they failed to win a seat there for the first time ever.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 23, 2017, 03:31:09 pm


---

Minor inconsistencies wrt rounding etc quite likely, but who care. In all cases you see a bigger map with the Power of right click.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 23, 2017, 03:30:24 pm
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 23, 2017, 03:30:00 pm
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 23, 2017, 03:26:50 pm
More critically they won't want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. For the true ideology of the DUP is that of all Irish parties with mass support: Gombeenism.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 21, 2017, 10:58:29 am
Numbers in Parliament for any form of Labour government do not exist. Relations between Labour and the SNP are very bad; actively poisonous actually.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 20, 2017, 02:48:54 pm
What does that mean for us uninitiated? White-collar employees?

People who aren't rich yet are comfortably off whatever their exact occupation (but are vulnerable to economic shocks; often mortgaged up to the hilt etc), who often live in post-1970 detached housing, and generally have very aspirational/materialistic (delete according to taste; I'm assuming you would use the latter word) lifestyles. Increasingly rare under a certain age for obvious reasons.
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Uni Degrees on: June 20, 2017, 01:39:40 pm
They're... um... rather different subjects, be aware.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 20, 2017, 01:26:59 pm
By classic swing voter types you mean MONDEO MAN right al?

Exactly so.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: I'll be away for a while on: June 20, 2017, 12:05:34 pm
As you know, I share a lot of these feelings and sentiments. Wishing you the best.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 20, 2017, 11:34:07 am
Anyway, and this was clear enough from the results but whatever, Labour's coalition at the election = workers, the young and minorities; the Tories coalition at the election = pensioners, managers and yr classic swing voter types. I mean this only in extremely crude terms of course.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 20, 2017, 11:22:00 am
its not an exit poll and although its got a larger sample size than normal; cross tabs that small aren't going to be particularly accurate.

Correct. These are the best numbers you're going to see, but they're hardly ideal.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 20, 2017, 07:04:33 am
Note remarks made previously about the problems with the ABCDE system (though note as well that this firm shows larger differences than YouGov). Ipsos-MORI are confirmed as a firm that classifies nearly all pensioners as DE.

But some spectacularly sh!t takes on the data from media idiots, but that's hardly as surprise. That Ipsos-MORI have joined in as well - hahaha at the spin on the bar charts there, Jesus that's woeful - isn't surprising.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election, 2017 - Election Day and Results Thread on: June 17, 2017, 05:37:57 pm


The picture will be larger if you right click on it. And you can see the full size image - which is Too Big For Atlas - here.
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem on: June 17, 2017, 08:10:10 am
The source appears to be an exploding fridge; quite how that fire got through the wall and onto the external cladding remains to be determined.

The trigger to the Aberfan disaster was several days of heavy rain. Rain, of course, happens in Wales. Similarly, minor fires caused by electrical appliances will happen in residential areas. Normally, in a tower block at least, they are barely a problem (one of the more annoying aspects to the coverage of this has been ignorant people acting as if all tower blocks are death traps in case of fire; actually, no. The opposite is usually the case as the people who designed them - as misguided as they were in certain respects - were not monsters and did consider the issue of fires very carefully). At Aberfan the slag heap collapsed, hurtled down the mountain and killed 144 people; all within a few minutes. At Grenfell Tower the exterior of the building caught fire and it went up like a torch, killing (it now seems quite likely) a broadly comparable number of people, again all within a shockingly short space of time. Neither thing should ever have happened; both did because particular decisions were taken that should not have been (we don't know exactly what they were at Grenfell Tower yet, but we will). Just left hoping that in this instance the legal system is now properly equipped (and prepared) to relieved some form of justice.
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