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May 25, 2016, 11:58:51 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Corbyn vs the Pigdiddler on: Today at 10:04:53 am
The law was deliberately written in such a way as to prevent it from being easily politicised.
2  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Hypothetical: God is disproved on: May 23, 2016, 05:47:09 pm
...and importantly this silly question isn't being raised as a 'haha I has a question now lol' but as a barely concealed broadside. Inevitably the tone of responses is not going to be particularly friendly.
3  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Hypothetical: God is disproved on: May 22, 2016, 02:34:04 pm
So, you're effectively making the argument that I just rebutted.  Please explain why you disagree with the rebuttal.

Which rebuttal is this?

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It's kind of aggravating to deal with something that starts as a really specific statement, and then becomes incredibly vague.  I'm not a dumb guy, and I have no idea what you're talking about, or why people "pedantic" or "boring" would make an argument invalid.

Which part is vague?

I don't know whether boring pedantry is automatically invalid, but who honestly has the time for it?

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How is it stupid to accept the plausibility of a premise and then to answer the (interesting) possibilities that would follow?

Let's not shift things too much. It was the question I labeled as stupid. I'd argue that any philosophical question that can't be addressed honestly is kind of stupid. I suppose I'm using 'stupid' to mean 'pointless and unproductive' rather than 'lacking in intelligence', but that's not unusual in this context. No one else has to agree, but that's my settled view.

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Are you arguing against engaging counterfactuals?

Quite possibly. You can't know how you'd react to most hypotheticals which does make them problematic from the honesty perspective (which is important). The idea that we have control over our feelings is risible.

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You totally ignored both my main rebuttal of my argument, and my challenge to your consistency, and just repeated your position.  And then you attacked the intention of the question-asker, which has absolutely nothing to do with the merit of the argument/question.  Do you get this defensive about other counterfactuals, or only ones that relate to a personal sacred cow like religion?

I'm not sure if I am being defensive.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential Election: April 24 & May 22) on: May 22, 2016, 01:19:24 pm
But generally if you fill out a postal ballot you aren't wavering in the slightest.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Tajik referendums, 22 May on: May 22, 2016, 10:08:37 am
Are these electoral type events or will the results somewhat reflect how people voted?

Unless Tajikistan has changed remarkably in recent years, the former. The head of the country's official anticorruption watchdog is the President's son.
6  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Hypothetical: God is disproved on: May 21, 2016, 07:07:08 pm
That's not obvious to me.  Please explain.

God must exist beyond that which is objectively verifiable else God is not God.

Or, rather, the only conception of God that might be technically objectively provable/disprovable would be a particularly boring and pedantic Deistic conception (which I would not recognise as 'God' in any case) and, frankly, don't we all have better things to be worrying about that that?

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It's no more impossible to work with this premise than others that would require some unknown factor to make them logically possible ("what if the Earth were made of Jell-O?!").

But a) stupid and b) ultimately masturbatory and therefore not honest and therefore, from one point of view, impossible to truly answer.

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Hell, IIRC you have argued in the past that faith is reasonable outside of logic, and now you're arguing that this is unanswerable, presumably because the premise it rests on is logically untenable/dubious.  So how can you now reject considering a premise based on the logical difficulty of accepting the premise?  IIRC, you've expressed support in believing a premise regardless of the logical difficulty of accepting that premise.

If a question can't be answered honestly (this one can't) then it's a useless question and is probably only being asked for rhetorical purposes. Or at least that's my suspicion.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 21, 2016, 06:24:50 pm
Mind clarifying that comment on Prince Zylinski?

That part of Ealing isn't far off 15% Polish born.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Northern Ireland Assembly 2016 on: May 21, 2016, 09:20:13 am
Of course expecting the UUP and SDLP to provide a competent opposition may well be asking just a little bit too much...
9  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Hypothetical: God is disproved on: May 20, 2016, 08:58:13 pm
I asked how people would feel and how they'd live their lives if somehow there was 100% concrete evidence there was no higher power and no afterlife.

An impossible question for anyone to answer for reasons that should be fairly obvious. However. Why do you think this question is one worth asking? Now that is an interesting question.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 20, 2016, 12:20:07 pm
Where did the Green\Libdem\Ukip (I assume Romford) do best?

Berry (Green) - Herne Hill (Lambeth) 15.3%, Pidgeon (LibDem) - Surrey Docks (Southwark; yuppie flats) 17.3%, Whittle (UKIP) - Heaton (Havering; one of the Harold Hill wards so what most people would think of as Romford even if not in the parliamentary constituency) 19.5%.

The candidate of the Women's Equality Party polled best in (looooool) Crouch End (5.4%), George Galloway in one of the North Kensington wards (Golborne) 5.7% which was not expected and Prince Zylinski in Greenford Green (5.1%) which absolutely was.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: World's most demented electoral system? on: May 20, 2016, 10:11:07 am
There have been other systems far more demented, but particular form of PR used in the Weimar Republic was quite special.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ireland General Discussion on: May 20, 2016, 10:03:34 am
lawd
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How Coal Country is Voting (Images) on: May 20, 2016, 10:02:15 am
Most American coalfields are dead or dying (have been for decades as well; the big mines in southern WV and eastern KY basically all went in the 1980s) and so are social disaster areas. This (and its implications) really shouldn't be a hard point to grasp and yet...
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 20, 2016, 08:51:37 am
Great to see North London backing Khan in big numbers. So what was Khan best Ward?

Little Ilford (East Ham in 'Newham') with 77% of the vote. Fun fact about Little Ilford: the largest census-designated ethnic group there (Bengalis) make up less than 20% of the population.

Goldsmith's was (this will shock everyone) Knightsbridge & Belgravia with 76%.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 20, 2016, 08:46:49 am
How do the Khan and Goldsmith areas of strength compare with typical GE behavior? That is, are there areas where Khan/Goldsmith performed disproportionately well compared with Labour/Conservative parliamentary candidates (besides the aforementioned non-Muslim South Asian areas)?

Well there's the obvious issue of only two parties having much strength which confuses things in certain places. As well as that Khan underperformed in majority white areas in the outer ring (partly because Labour supporters there are less likely to vote in London elections, partly for other reasons; no one mentioned the latter during the campaign because - unlike the Gujarati esp. thing - this was auto-factored in and no mystery) though actually by less than Livingstone tended to, and overperformed in inner South London, particularly in his own borough and especially in his own constituency.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 19, 2016, 05:20:06 pm
What's up with those two Labour wards in southeastern Croydon? I thought so far out south was basically already Surrey, which the wards around it seem to affirm looking at those results.

New Addington; big LCC overspill estate.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 19, 2016, 12:22:00 pm
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: India 2016 Assembly elections - April 4 to May 16 2016 on: May 19, 2016, 08:43:38 am
Starting to look almost a little bit terminal for the WB Commies isn't it?
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Bullies force halt to vote on allowing alcohol sales in Pine Ridge on: May 18, 2016, 06:53:18 pm
Oh and guys stop being racists please, thnx. This is a difficult enough issue even without all that effluent to wade through...
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Bullies force halt to vote on allowing alcohol sales in Pine Ridge on: May 18, 2016, 06:52:08 pm
Well maybe if Natives placed more value as a culture on education and not being trash this wouldn't be a problem. And yes I would say the same for poor whites in the Southeast before you predictably try to play that card.

Why is this reprobate still posting here? Didn't he claim that he would Never Post Again after that nasty business (wasn't it involving AIDS or something?) a while back? Sad!
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should John Bercow, MP, be a moderator here? on: May 18, 2016, 06:43:56 pm
He's not bad. I liked his predecessor better though. He has a rather unnecessarily pompous approach.

Michael Martin? He always seemed to me as rather unassuming individual with a poor voice (poor for a Speaker, given the job description).

No, Torie means Selwyn Lloyd.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 17, 2016, 01:43:56 pm
This is always an interesting issue; I'm starting with a non-modified map (though lots of shades at the lower end, which should make it easy to mentally 'adjust'; using lead % rather than vote % helps here I think as you can immediately see which wards were close) mostly to get familiar with the data so to have more fun with candidate/party vote maps, but intend to do a modified one later.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Myth of Donald Trump's Upper-Class Support on: May 16, 2016, 06:26:43 pm
Basically you read a lot of sh!t Torie.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Myth of Donald Trump's Upper-Class Support on: May 16, 2016, 06:25:03 pm
This is a really sh!tty and dishonest article. Obviously any article that starts with a lengthy and screed full of ugly generalisations presented as fact ('Liberals want reality to conform to their heroic narratives about life.') is one that is rarely worth taking seriously, and given this I guess no one should be surprised that almost immediately we hit on that old classic of claiming that people who you disagree with/dislike have argued something other than that they actually have:

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'Unfortunately, after you factor in the century and country we live in, the evidence that the Trump voter is especially well-off is pretty thin.'

Has anyone actually argued that Trump primary voters are especially well off? The usual argument (and one that happens to be backed up by, you know, election returns) is that the critical mass behind Trump's victory has been ordinary affluent Republicans living in the outer suburbs, not that Trump's supporters look like Trump. Acknowledging this is not the same as saying that Trump has not done very well amongst those few voters in depressed areas who have voted; it is just a matter of pointing out that you cannot win a Republican primary with those votes alone, and Trump hasn't...

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Household income numbers are not all that revealing

This is a genuinely bizarre statement and one that is not backed up or justified in any meaningful way at all. Instead we just get this strange ramble about the need to take age and other family related factors into account because the 'strain' on income caused by Wholesome Republican Family Values are apparently worse than other 'strains' on income (c.f. renting). This is blinkered ideological bilge.

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Telling us the household income of Trump supporters without describing the age and number of the earners and dependents tells us not much at all. A 24-year-old single and unmarried Bernie Sanders supporter who makes $28,000 a year may have a college degree and may expect to make a six-figure income by middle age. He may have parents that help him make rent when he comes up short.

What planet does this idiot live on? Not that this hypothetical 'typical' Sanders supporter is at all relevant to the sociology of Trump's primary support (and neither is he/she exactly typical of Sanders supporters. Ignoring the almost sweet ignorance of what life is like for young people these days, the assumption that Sanders has not attracted significant support from Americans with the sort of lifestyle this buffoon trumpets is telling).

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But under household-income numbers alone, that Sanders supporter looks more desperate than a Trump supporter who heads a family of five, in which two working parents in their peak earning years make $68,000 as a household. Sometimes being "rich" means you can spend a few years earning $24,000 at a job you love. Sometimes being working class means taking a dangerous job at six figures, but go on disability in your mid-40s. Pay gaps between America's classes are small early in the life-cycle of a career.

And note that, surprise surprise, we're seeing the questionable archetype presented earlier being presented as 'typical' of Sanders support (again, how is Sanders' support relevant to Trumps?) and extreme and unusual career paths being presented as typical. It also displays an amusing lack of knowledge as to wage earning patterns in working class households.

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And so this raw data leads intelligent journalists to say insane things, as when Matthew Yglesias described the Trump-voting Staten Island as an "affluent" community.

But Staten Island is an affluent community. And not only is it affluent but its employment structure leans heavily towards the managerial and the white collar, so we can't even pull the tired old trope of 'affluent workers' out of retirement. Of course Staten Island is also unfashionable and the people that live there speak with an accent, but this doesn't make it a working class community.*

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When people think of "affluent" they think of neighborhoods they'd move into if they became wealthy.

Oh dear.

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But the borough is defined by a culture of New York's public sector workers like sanitation men, NYPD, and FDNY whose incomes look "affluent" by national standards, but don't feel like it in such close proximity to Manhattan.

In fact the people he's talking about look affluent in the city they live in, at least once you ignore the people who work in financial servics etc (who don't interact in the normal economy anyway) but whatever. The fact that they are not rich is irrelevant to the fact that they are affluent.

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More truth is found out about Staten Island on Urban Dictionary, or in the character of Ray from HBO's Girls,

Abort Abort Abort

It's been obvious all along that this is not serious analysis. It is now clear that it is not serious journalism either.

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The Staten Island example fits with some of the other data that Silver, Yglesias, and others breeze over. Staten Island was Trump-central, while truly affluent neighborhoods voted for John Kasich. Even though his campaign was a joke by this point, Kasich did best against Trump in truly affluent New York suburbs, like Darien and Westport, Connecticut. Trump dominated with voters in "affluent" Maryland that were over 50 or had no college degree. He did best with people reporting less than $100,000 in total family income.

This is hilarious. Shouldn't have to point out why.

And there follows further ranting that I can't be bothered to read.

*Actually part of Staten Island is working class but its also the part full of minorities.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: May 15, 2016, 07:32:38 pm
Anyway there's a strong class element to Australian voting patterns (as you'd expect given its history), but things differ in different parts of the country. Broadly speaking its strongest in large industrial towns (in which I'm going to trollishly include Adelaide ahahaha) and weakest in historically prosperous agricultural districts. In the big cities it has historically been starker in Sydney than Melbourne (not that it's a minor issue in the latter) although less so in recent decades. But then you have e.g. Tasmania and backwoods Queensland in which sometimes class voting is a huge thing (and Labor does well) and sometimes it isn't (and Labor gets crushed).
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