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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 03, 2015, 07:27:31 pm
Tonight's YouGov tells the usual picture, but a detail to highlight: LibDems on 5%
2  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Atlasia v. Ogis/Tyrion on: March 03, 2015, 06:42:25 pm
Thank you, Tyrion. I have no further questions.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season XXI: "Scientific Facts Are Not Hard And Fast Rules." on: March 03, 2015, 03:10:17 pm
But you could cook your own comfort food. You might find it surprisingly enjoyable. Control of ingredients and portion sizes would mean that it would be better for on two counts (i.e. what you're eating and what you're spending).
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would Bushie be better off in Soviet Russia? on: March 03, 2015, 03:05:39 pm
He would certainly make a good Communist.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season XXI: "Scientific Facts Are Not Hard And Fast Rules." on: March 03, 2015, 02:58:52 pm
And you feel less lonely with a take-away or a ready meal?
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: If you were a member of Congress, would you attend Netanyahu's speech? on: March 03, 2015, 02:57:15 pm
It's a curious double dubious interference isn't it? Bibi getting involved in the American political process, and the Congressional Republicans getting involved in the Israeli election.
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season XXI: "Scientific Facts Are Not Hard And Fast Rules." on: March 03, 2015, 02:54:04 pm
It's no fun cooking for just one person.

Just cut down on the amounts given in any recipe you're using. Problem solved.
8  General Politics / Book Reviews and Discussion / Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? on: March 03, 2015, 01:33:58 pm
Recently finished H is for Hawk. It's amazing and you should all read it.
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How often should a legislature be elected? on: March 03, 2015, 11:50:54 am
To an extent this depends on the purpose of the legislature; you can get away with very short terms if the executive is not responsible to it (although it is still isn't ideal because of legislative timetabling issues and voter fatigue),* but if you have a parliamentary system of government then three years is probably your absolute minimum (absent snap elections and so on, but that is an entirely different issue). This is because with permanence comes power and with transience comes weakness. The old Chartist demand for annual parliaments is a great idea... if you want the civil service in charge of absolutely everything. Conversely, of course, very long terms are a bad thing for reasons that are closely related; a government that doesn't have to face the electorate for a long time (in political terms) is even more likely to succumb to executive arrogance than average.

*What sort of democratic mandate does a legislature elected on a 30% poll actually have?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 02, 2015, 06:05:53 pm
True enough, though you should also worry when a particularly firm is a bit too bouncy...
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Atlasia v. Ogis/Tyrion on: March 02, 2015, 01:44:54 pm
Mr Tyrion, would you care to provide to the jury a brief outline of your history in Atlasia, paying particular attention to your attitude to the game when you were (if you forgive me) a juvenile delinquent, and to your attitude towards it now that you are an upstanding citizen?
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of John C. Calhoun on: March 02, 2015, 01:32:22 pm
Every good story needs a proper villain or three, and Calhoun rose to that part admirably. HP.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 02, 2015, 01:22:38 pm
As its Monday, a new Populus: Labour 34, Con 32, UKIP 14, LDem 8, Green 5
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Across the pond on: March 02, 2015, 11:39:54 am
Key is a moderate, yes. But the lunatics are still lurking beneath the surface and will doubtless try to take over again when he leaves.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Boston Citizens vs. Harvard Faculty on: March 02, 2015, 11:37:34 am
Buckley was a loathsome louse and a grotesque dishonest charlatan, but (alas) I have to agree with him on this point. I have worked at a university (albeit at the very lowest rung and at one rather less elevated than Harvard) and... um... no, you don't want academic politics to replace actual politics. That would not be good.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: NYC General Discussion - You Hear That Giant Sucking Sound? on: March 02, 2015, 11:30:34 am
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 02, 2015, 11:20:14 am
And how much to numbers change, or individual races change, due to strategic voting in the end? How many voters engage in strategic voting?

Here's the fun part: it is impossible to tell.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 02, 2015, 11:15:26 am
Latest Ashcroft/Rubber Ball poll: Con 34, Labour 31, UKIP 14, Greens 7, LDem 7

(of course what's going to happen now - you can just tell - is that after a whole campaign doubtless bouncing around in all directions, his final poll will flukishly get it about right).
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Griffin's Third Annual "Let's Run in a Feb/Mar At-Large Sen. Special Election"! on: March 01, 2015, 07:30:27 pm
Do you support banning limited liability companies?
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Government / Re: Atlasia v. Ogis/Tyrion on: March 01, 2015, 12:37:51 pm
My client wishes to be placed under oath, Your Honour.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: March 01, 2015, 12:26:13 pm
The LD pulls in the single digits, how many seats would they be expected to lose, and who would pick them up? LD seems to me this odd duck where in some seats, their main competitor is the Tories, and in others, the Tories are near invisible, and the race is with Labor.  It's almost schizophrenic.

On the first point, no one really knows. The LibDems are weirdly optimistic (insisting that their vote will only crash in places where it doesn't matter) but the excessive optimism is in their nature. I note that as recently as 1992 they had just twenty seats and that was with a much higher share of the vote (18%) than currently looks realistic. That isn't a prediction, but a reminder that there's no reason to assume that they will automatically have a large block of MPs.

As for who benefits (perhaps), then it depends where. But it's certainly true that the Tories finished second in most LibDem seats and that many of these seats were reliably Conservative before 1997. Tory hopes of a majority rest (to a considerable extent) on the idea that they can gut their coalition partners while holding their ground elsewhere.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Bihar Assembly elections 2015 on: March 01, 2015, 11:38:24 am
Naturally I support Laloo.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Australia General Discussion on: March 01, 2015, 11:35:55 am
Individual polls may move up and down, it's the overall pattern that is most significant (at least at this stage in a parliament).
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Obama announces executive orders to recognize Palestine, and sanction Israel on: March 01, 2015, 11:32:14 am
U.S. military aid to Israel is in practice primarily a convoluted kickback to American arms contractors and to the politicians that are electorally dependent on having lots of well paid arms industry jobs in their districts. Which ought to answer your question.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Update Season XXI: "Scientific Facts Are Not Hard And Fast Rules." on: February 28, 2015, 09:14:41 pm
Ignore the above post. A strong red goes well with anything.
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