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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: February 16, 2017, 04:01:59 pm
Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.
7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.
Some Surinamese Dutch vote PVV, especially those who have become middle-class and live in often declining suburbs in the commuter belts around the big cities. These people's prospensity to vote PVV is pretty similar to that of non-Surinamese Dutch in the same neighborhoods, which actually makes sense. Some Surinamese people in The Hague and Rotterdam also vote PVV. The PVV's performance with Hindustani Surinamese Dutch may be even higher than with ethnic Dutch.

Still, 7 % is surprisingly high, considering that among non-immigrants 8 % voted PVV, basically the same percentage.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: GE March 15, 2017 on: February 16, 2017, 12:27:46 pm
Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: February 13, 2017, 01:06:21 pm
New tracking polls

http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1
OpinionWay
Le Pen 26% (25%)
Macron 22% (21%)
Fillon 21% (20%)
Hamon 15% (16%)
Melénchon 11% (13%)
Dupont-Aignan 3% (3%)
Jadot 2% (1%)

http://cdn-new-parismatch.ladmedia.fr/var/ifop/13-02-2017.pdf
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 26% (26%)
Macron 19.5% (20.5%)
Fillon 18% (17.5%)
Hamon 14.5% (15%)
Melénchon 11.5% (11%)
Bayrou 5.5% (5.5%)
Dupont-Aignan 2.5% (2.5%)
Jadot 1.5% (1.5%)


Fillon stops losing ground and starts to rebound?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: How would you have voted? Russia on: January 17, 2017, 05:10:09 pm
The only two strongly anti-Kremlin parties are Yabloko and Civic Platform.
Not sure if your statement about Civic Platform would be true even in 2012 or 2013, but now it's just a corpse. Prokhorov lost control of it and it became an irrelevant United Russia puppet (it's new leader got a seat in Duma only because United Russia intentionally didn't field it's candidate there).
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Russia 1996: Zyuganov vs Zhirinovsky on: December 21, 2016, 06:35:35 pm
Either one probably leads to a coup. Boris Yeltsin, Anatoly Chubais, Viktor Chernomyrdin, Alexander Lebed, and Alexander Podrabinek would not let Zyuganov or Zhirinovsky rule for long.

Podrabinek never was a powerful person, not even remotely. He isn't politician at all, just journalist and activist. Maybe you confused him with someone else.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Russia 1996: Zyuganov vs Zhirinovsky on: December 21, 2016, 06:33:09 pm
Meanwhile, the nationalists tend to do better in Siberia and other remote areas - basically the areas Yelstin won in 1996 and where Putin and Zhironovsky over-performed in 2012. I made a map of how the parties did in in 2012 relative to their national total a while back for a different thread:


United Russia
Communists
LDPR
Prokhorov
A Just Russia

Places where Putin over-performed are just the places where the largest vote fraud happened. But other parts of the map reflect actual voting patterns very well (e. g. most of the gray regions are indeed "liberal strongholds"). Maps for each candidate or maps like Zyuganov vs Zhirinovsky or Zyuganov vs Prokhorov would be also very interesting. Though I'd say that the most noticeable difference is not between remote and non-remote areas, but between North and South, and I would describe this split as a split between the "Red Belt" (South) and the non-communist North. Not just Zhirinovsky but also liberal candidates tend to over-perform in the North. But yes, it also seems like Zhirinovsky is particularly popular in Siberia and the Far East.

Quote
So, except for Moldova and arguably Transnistria and Belarus, the rulers in the 90s were generally closer in profile to Zhirinovsky than Zyuganov.

I think to lump, say, Zhirinovsky, Gamsakhurdia and Nazarbayev together because they all can be described as nationalists is like say there isn't much difference between Romney, Ron Paul and Trump because they are all Republicans. Even worse, since "nationalism" is an especially vague word. I suspect the first thing that comes to a mind of an average Russian when he thinks about Zhirinovsky is not that he is nationalist but his personal qualities: those who dislike him would say he is a dangerous psychopath or, at best, a clown, and many of his supporters are attracted mostly by his eccentricity and craziness (and he also believed to get a lot of protest votes). Many Russian nationalists also support him, of course (at least as a lesser evil in their eyes)... but many of them also support Zyuganov. Depending on how you define nationalism, it can turn out that Zyuganov and his average voter is more nationalist and more consistent in his nationalism than Zhirinosky and his average voter respectively.

This is probably especially true for 90s: early LDPR included quite a few people not known as nationalists at all but well known for their extravagant and eccentric behavior, e. g. Marychev and Mitrofanov.

Zhirinovsky was a kind of Russian Donald Trump (especially Trump at the early stages of his campaign when not everyone took him seriously; of course, if Zhirinovsky managed to pass in the second round and especially he would win elections, people will start to view him differently too). And Trump probably has a more coherent ideology, actually.

Quote
But again, I doubt the direction of the country would have radically changed either way.

I tend to agree. Despite his seemingly extremist political positions, Zhirinovsky many times cooperated with government both under Yeltsin and under Putin. There is even a theory that he always was a Kremlin provocateur :-).

And Zyuganov's victory also could end up like Voronin's victory in Moldova: some changes would happen, but not radical. But nobody can be sure in anything.
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Greens only: Hitler or Bin Laden? on: December 03, 2016, 07:20:28 pm
Why is hitler winning?

Maybe because he was an animal rights champion Cheesy.
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Vladimir Putin on: September 30, 2016, 04:40:09 pm
Mild FF. I'd outright admire him if he didn't essentially make himself president for life. I admire his piety and zealous defense of Christianity while our pathetic leaders in the godless West worry more about not offending minorities than fighting terrorism and promoting the values that made the West great in the first place. For centuries, Russia was the bulwark of Christendom, and under Putin, she is fulfilling her destiny once more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Russia

Despite a significant reduction in the abortion to birth ratio since the mid-1990s, the countries of the former Soviet Union maintain the highest rate of abortions in the world. In 2001, 1.31 million children were born in Russia, while 2.11 million abortions were performed.[32] In 2005, 1.6 million abortions were registered in Russia;[4] 20% of these involved girls under the age of 18.[33] Official statistics put the number at 989,000 in 2011,[4] though Russian pro-life activists say that number is much higher.[27]

As of 2010, the abortion rate was 37.4 abortions per 1000 women aged 15–44 years, the highest of any country reported in UN data.

Well, you can't blame Putin for this since number of abortions was much higher before him (more data here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#After_WWII).

Neither you can praise him, though. Putin doesn't seem to have anything to do with decreasing abortion rate, it's just a common trend in Russia (both under Yeltsin and under Putin) and other post-Soviet countries.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 22, 2016, 05:46:57 pm
Vladimir Volfovich Eidelstein Zhirinovskiy

Wait.

Wait.

Zhirinovsky is a Jew? Zhirinovsky?!

This isn't even the craziest thing about LDPR. I'd say LDPR is the biggest and the most successful joke party in the world history.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 22, 2016, 05:35:17 pm
Will Putin go full on North Korean and require the three other parties to join a United Front with UR, and then present voters with a single candidate list?

Nah. No need to. More trouble than it is worth.

And, BTW, this would not be North Korea. This is good old Soviet Russia. There were no "other parties" there. There was just the strong and united "Bloc of the Communists and non-party members".

I'm nitpicking, but what he described (several nominally independent parties united in a bloc and a single candidate list) is exactly North Korea (or China, or East Germany etc.) and not the USSR. Wouldn't say there is a difference though (except that these parties can become truly independent in case of democratization like it actually happened in East Germany).
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 18, 2016, 05:30:04 pm
And "United Russia" could win even some more: about half of districts, which went for other parties didn't have "United Russia" candidates at all.

Yes, I forgot to mention this. United Russia didn't field candidates in 18 districts (I thought this number is smaller), including a places where Civic Platform and Rodina leaders run (unsurprisingly since Rodina leader Zhuravlyov is a former UR member). So actually not even a half, but a majority.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 18, 2016, 05:09:58 pm
Didn't win yet, just leading in vote count. It wasn't entirely unexpected for liberal opposition to win a seat or two in some places where they have a strong candidate and vote rigging is small. 3 years ago Yabloko-backed independent won mayoral elections in Petrozavodsk.

Update (single-member districts): United Russia 198, KPRF 7, A Just Russia 5, LDPR 5, Civic Platform 1, Growth Party 1, Yabloko 1, independent 1; another 5 districts didn't report any results yet.

In multi-member constituency United Russia result is 52 % now and this percentage will probably continue to grow.

So the only thing that actually surprised me is a turnout, I expected it to be lower, but not that low.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 18, 2016, 04:00:40 pm
A very preliminary official results for single-member districts: United Russia 180, A Just Russia 6, KPRF 5, LDPR 4, Growth Party 2, Civic Platform 1, Rodina 1 and, notably, Yabloko 1.

Another very notorious fact is that turnout is a record low (40.37 % down from 60.1 % in 2011). And this is despite regional differences clearly show that it was falsified in some places (Kemerovo oblast 80 %, Tymen oblast 74 % etc.). But in most regions turnout doesn't seem to be especially abnormal (map) which, together with not very impressive United Russia result, suggests that overall level of vote fraud probably isn't that high.

So far the 5th place is occupied by Communists of Russia who siphoned off many KPRF votes (they ran under a similar name "Communist Party Communists of Russia" and a very similar logo and many KPRF voters are senile pensioners who can be easily fooled by such tricks).
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: September 13, 2016, 05:45:37 pm
Remember that in 2002 there was a huge mobilisation by the Plural Left in France to elect Chirac by a huge margin in the 2nd round. Several protests in the street against the FN candidate. Endorsements from Mamere, Taubira, Chevenement and of course Jospin. How did Chirac reward them? Jean-Pierre Raffarin as PM. So they probably won't do that again.

I doubt they expected any rewards. More likely they just didn't have any choices other than to actively endorse Chirac because they believed possible Le Pen presidency to be a total disaster.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 10, 2016, 08:06:49 pm
Yabloko stated that they would exchange Crimea for an iPhone

It seems you're wrong.

I became curious where did Yabloko say this, but found out only an article on a not well known site whose author figuratively tells that Yabloko proposes to exchange Crimea for iPhone; in the article he comments a political ad where Yavlinsky parodies iPhone presentation (keep in mind that "Yabloko" means "apple"), but this ad doesn't mention iPhone directly, and doesn't mention Crimea at all, directly or not.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: France: Strauss-Kahn in 2012 on: September 06, 2016, 12:58:18 pm
Strauss-Kahn performed much better in polls than Hollande or any other Socialist candidate in both rounds, so it seems his victory (most likely in a landslide) was almost guaranteed...
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: August 19, 2016, 07:52:39 pm
Anybody who knows more about Russian politics who can tell if any of the above are genuine opposition? Yabloko used to be decent if somewhat incompetent, but ISTR reading that they too had been infiltrated.

Of these 14, People's Freedom Party is certainly a genuine opposition. Yabloko too, maybe somewhat less genuine. It can be argued to what extent KPRF is an opposition.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: August 19, 2016, 07:32:21 pm
Wikipedia map is SVG, it can be rendered in different sizes up to 10000px.

Quick googling didn't find anything better.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would vote for in this hypothetical election? on: August 12, 2016, 01:26:54 pm
Ignoring the candidates, the anti-establishment Party sounds the best.

But the only thing we know about these parties are their candidates...
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Mensheviks on: June 21, 2016, 03:29:50 pm
seizing power when they had the chance
Did they ever had any chance?
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) – June 5, 2016 on: June 08, 2016, 12:58:06 pm
Notice the similarity between Austria and Peru:

In German-speaking Austria, a guy with a Dutch name won a close race.

In Spanish-speaking Peru, a guy with a Polish name seems to be winning a close race.

Also, both of them won despite finishing a distant second in the 1st round.
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Barack Obama vs. Volume 15: Ronald Reagan on: June 07, 2016, 05:49:19 pm
Reagan did far more damage to the United States after he left office

How exactly?
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Barack Obama vs. Volume 15: Ronald Reagan on: June 07, 2016, 05:45:38 pm
Who is the one Democrat who voted Reagan?

It's even more interesting who is the Republican who voted Obama.
[/quote

Not really, as he's answered publicly above. Smiley

Yeah, I didn't notice him. Still, for me it's even harder to imagine Republican supporter of Obama than Democratic supporter of Reagan.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Barack Obama vs. Volume 15: Ronald Reagan on: June 07, 2016, 04:01:12 pm
Who is the one Democrat who voted Reagan?

It's even more interesting who is the Republican who voted Obama.
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Hail, Columbia! (Master Thread) on: May 20, 2016, 12:52:46 pm
Who was the youngest? The oldest?
Miguel Hidalgo (35 on the day of his inauguration) and Benjamin Franklin (78).

Van Buren was 30 on the day of his inauguration in 1813.
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