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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Mensheviks on: June 21, 2016, 03:29:50 pm
seizing power when they had the chance
Did they ever had any chance?
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) June 5, 2016 on: June 08, 2016, 12:58:06 pm
Notice the similarity between Austria and Peru:

In German-speaking Austria, a guy with a Dutch name won a close race.

In Spanish-speaking Peru, a guy with a Polish name seems to be winning a close race.

Also, both of them won despite finishing a distant second in the 1st round.
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Barack Obama vs. Volume 15: Ronald Reagan on: June 07, 2016, 05:49:19 pm
Reagan did far more damage to the United States after he left office

How exactly?
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Barack Obama vs. Volume 15: Ronald Reagan on: June 07, 2016, 05:45:38 pm
Who is the one Democrat who voted Reagan?

It's even more interesting who is the Republican who voted Obama.
[/quote

Not really, as he's answered publicly above. Smiley

Yeah, I didn't notice him. Still, for me it's even harder to imagine Republican supporter of Obama than Democratic supporter of Reagan.
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Barack Obama vs. Volume 15: Ronald Reagan on: June 07, 2016, 04:01:12 pm
Who is the one Democrat who voted Reagan?

It's even more interesting who is the Republican who voted Obama.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Hail, Columbia! (Master Thread) on: May 20, 2016, 12:52:46 pm
Who was the youngest? The oldest?
Miguel Hidalgo (35 on the day of his inauguration) and Benjamin Franklin (78).

Van Buren was 30 on the day of his inauguration in 1813.
7  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: PRC political ideology by Province on: May 13, 2016, 06:24:58 pm
Thanks! It's strange that Shanxi is now one of the poorest provinces, despite it's mercantile traditions.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: PRC political ideology by Province on: May 13, 2016, 03:34:35 pm
Why these 2 isolated provinces in Central China, Shanxi and Hubei, are so "right-wing" despite their GDP per capita and HDI aren't much different from adjacent regions? Hubei is where Wuhan, one of the largest Chinese cities, is placed, but I doubt it affected study results significantly.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Presidential Election (RUNOFF) - Official Prediction Thread on: May 08, 2016, 08:10:16 am
Hofer 58.4 %
Van der Bellen 41.6 %
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: May 07, 2016, 09:23:51 pm
There is a very significant vote swing in Kosovo, where SNS rose from 51.32 % (barely better than average) in 2014 to 69.73 %, while SPS fell from 17.55 % to 9.99 % and Dveri-DSS from 14.54 % to 4.47 % (Kosovo was a DSS stronghold previously). I'm curious what's the reason of this. Suspiciously, turnout in Kosovo also rose by more than 10 %.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What three states are likely to have the highest % of people not voting... on: April 30, 2016, 06:26:39 pm
UT, AK, and NM (assuming Johnson is the Libertarian nominee - otherwise MT)

Why New Mexico? Trump is going to drive Hispanic turnout through the roof, and considering that NM is majority-minority, I don't see how their turnout would be on the lower side of the spectrum. Unless I am missing something here that is specific to New Mexico?

That depends on how you interpret "the highest % of people not voting for either Clinton or Trump in the general election". It could mean either a % of a total voting-age population, or a % of those who voted.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: April 27, 2016, 03:35:04 pm
Will the Progressives continue the coalition with the Socialists now that they have a majority on their own?

They already had a majority after the 2014 elections. If they included SPS in the ruling coalition then, they'll probably prefer to keep this coalition now, when SNS majority is much less solid.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: April 27, 2016, 03:29:57 pm
Anyway, Peter has already given the results, except the 30th SPS seat has gone to the Green party, who ran as a minority list and are now entering Parliament for the first time with 1 MP.

There are also 2 nominally Russian parties (which obtained many times more votes than there are Russians in Serbia and I doubt there are any Russians among their prominent members at all) as well as Republican Party led by ethnic Serbs but registered as a party of Hungarian minority. It looks like this "no threshold for minority lists" rule is regularly abused in Serbia.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election April 10, 2016 on: April 13, 2016, 07:37:05 pm
Santos' support must have been crazy localized if he only won 4% nationwide but still placed first in Cajamarca...
He is Cajamarca's governor (although he is in Jail) and apparently he is seen like a hero there because he opposed many Mining projects in the department (particularly Conga project).

So his 1st place in Cajamarca isn't surprising at all. His 3rd place (with 20 % of votes!) in Puno, which is at the opposite end of Peru, looks much more strange. Is there any explanation?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: VP for Cruz on: April 08, 2016, 06:10:37 pm
The only one of those I would find viable is Fiorina, and that's still a long shot. Rubio, Ryan and Kasich are too moderate/establishment to appeal to the disaffected Drumpf voters.

Cruz also needs to appeal to moderate pro-establishment voters. And how many Trump supporters (of those who don't intend to vote for Cruz in the GE) will change their minds if Fiorina runs as VP? I guess not so many.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Can you be left-wing without being a liberal? on: April 08, 2016, 03:25:28 pm
Most of the Communist counties banned homosexuality and abortion.

Specifically abortion isn't a good example: when the Soviet Union re-legalized abortion in 1955 (soon followed by most of it's Eastern European satellite states), it was ahead of most of the Western world, East Germany made abortion legal several years earlier than West Germany, and Cuba is one of only a few Latin American nations where abortion is entirely legal.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Icelandic parliamentary election 2016 on: April 07, 2016, 04:45:24 pm
Progress Party -- 10.8% (down 1.2% since their poll last week, down 13.6% since the 2013 election)

1.2 % is surprisingly little, 2 other polls conducted after the Panama Papers indicate a more significant decline.
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: US Presidential Election, 1948 on: March 29, 2016, 07:04:03 pm
Thurmond also would have been the most likely to prevent the loss of China to the reds.

How exactly?

By early 1949, after a series of decisive Communist victories, it was too late.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 10:50:26 pm
From what I remember last time, the ballot stuffing in 2011 was due to overeager regional cronies showing off and I'm willing to bet they'll be instructed to knock that off because it was really embarrassing for Russia.

Vote rigging will happen for sure, but maybe on a smaller scale due to the reasons you've stated.

Quote
This time around, there's literally no non-joke opposition that hasn't been pushed off the scene

Actually, there are basically no changes from the last election: all the parties (including those that can be counted as opposition) from 2011 election will probably run, and, moreover, PARNAS (one of the 3 main parties of liberal opposition, together with Yabloko and unregistered Progress Party) have a right to take part in the election this time.

Progress Party members will participate under PARNAS banner, and maybe all 3 parties will try to form a joint list. But even then they will have very little chance to succeed.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 10:19:31 pm
Wasn't there a pro-Kremlin free market party around a few years ago? Are they still around, and if so, how will they do?
Yes, Pravoye Delo. Hailed by free-market Westerners, but also widely regarded as belonging to the category of fake opposition parties. They also belong to the category of 14 parties that do not have to have 150,000 signatures to contend in the elections and I suppose they might contend, although I don't find anything indicating they will do so on their website (but my Russian isn't that good), which is basically full of uninteresting facts. Indicates that even if they contend, they probably won't reach the threshold.

Interesting article on the party here, indicating that they are virtually dead, but I'm not sure if that is still the case. They have seats in the regional parliaments of Ingushetia and Dagestan, presumably because they are fiscally liberal and socially conservative Tongue

Prokhorov created his own party, named Civic Platform, in 2012. By the way, Roizman (mentioned in the article) won 2013 mayoral elections in Yekaterinburg under Civic Platform banner.

But later Prokhorov lost control over his new creation (not sure to what extent it was again due to Kremlin manipulations) and left it. Now both Right Cause and Civic Platform are dead corpses, though they will probably take part in the elections as spoilers.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 10:03:11 pm
The Communists also took over many of United Russia's talking points, e.g. regarding "propaganda" for homosexuality.

Actually, they were anti-gay long before it was cool, I mean, before United Russia started it's anti-LGBT campaign.

Quote
Polls have the party around 6%, just over the 5% threshold, but I would be very surprised if the party wouldn't reach the threshold (and that has not much to do with actual electoral popularity).

No, Kremlin won't actively help it to get into the parliament. Maybe initially there was an intention to establish a fake two-party system with "right-wing" United Russia and "left-wing" A Just Russia, but if such plan ever existed, it was abandoned long ago. Ahead of the 2011 elections, A Just Russia went out of control, at least partially, and some of it's members played a major role in 2011-2012 protests together with non-system opposition. Most of them have been expelled from the party since then, and now it seems to be as pro-Kremlin as it was initially. But even in 2007, when A Just Russia was fully loyal to it's masters and close to not passing the threshold, the only party that got "votes" due to rigging was United Russia. And things probably won't change this time.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 08:58:12 pm
Oddly, in 2011, the opinion polls put United Russia about 5% higher than they actually got in the Duma election. This might be down to turnout or due to the last poll being two weeks before the elections, rather than anything radical. Also, United Russia were way down on the previous election in 2007.

VCIOM poll (19-20 Nov 2011):
United Russia - 53.7%
Communist - 16.7%
Liberal Dems - 11.6%
A Just Russia - 10.0%

Duma election (4 Dec 2011)
United Russia - 49.3% (-15.0 on 2007)
Communist - 19.2% (+7.6)
A Just Russia - 13.2% (+5.5)
Liberal Dems - 11.7% (+3.5)

That's not to say that there wasn't voting fraud, as it's pretty clear that there was. It would be interesting to know how transparent Russian opinion polling is, though.

This is mostly because of conformism (people give socially desirable responses) and because of undecideds more often tend to support opposition parties in the last moment. By the way, Navalny (one of the main leaders of non-system opposition) called his supporters to vote for any party besides United Russia (though this probably had little direct effect). Note that the poll underestimated KPRF (which is reluctantly supported by many anti-ER voters as the largest alternative and more genuine opposition than other 2 parliamentary parties) and A Just Russia (which is less unacceptable for many voters because, unlike KPRF and LDPR, it doesn't adhere to extremist ideology), but not LDPR. In all other polls, A Just Russia also was at the 4th place.

Turnout probably also affected results. And it's also likely that in the last 2 weeks United Russia actually lost some support.

Polls tend to overestimate pro-government candidates and somewhat overestimate LDPR (because of lower turnout of LDPR supporters). In the 2011 elections the difference between polls and official election results was small due to vote rigging, but in the 2013 Moscow mayoral elections, where there was very little vote fraud, Navalny surprisingly received much more votes than it was predicted by any pollster.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would Attila the Hun support to be president? on: February 16, 2016, 12:21:58 pm
Attila was pro-immigration, he would never support Trump :-).
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Terri Schiavo's feeding tube have been removed? on: December 20, 2015, 08:18:02 am
The family wanted the tube removed

Not entire family, there was a conflict between her husband, who wanted the tube removed, and her parents, who were against this.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: The US and EU switch electoral systems on: December 05, 2015, 08:30:47 pm
I think European countries are still too different from each other, with different issues being salient, so it's very hard to say how people would vote. But, probably, we can assume that Nordic countries would be the bluest (using the most common American color scheme, where blue means left-wing and red means right-wing). France and the Netherlands likely would be blue too. Eastern Europe probably would be red; currently Poland and Hungary seem to be the most right-wing in Europe, though I'm not sure if it is an established political tradition or a mere fluctuation (Poland had social democratic President only slightly more than 10 years ago). But at least on most social and cultural issues Eastern Europe tend to be more conservative.

In the USA anti-immigration far-right probably won't be as strong, but at the same time paleocons and radical Christians would be much stronger, and they would be probably part of the same far-right party as anti-immigration activists so overall far-right could be even stronger than in Europe.
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