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April 27, 2017, 11:37:11 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: United Nations Triumvirate Jungle Primary on: Today at 09:06:04 pm
Why do you think Mélenchon is more blatant Putinist than Le Pen? I think most people would say the opposite: that Le Pen is more blatant.
By the way, M5S and Kirchners are also quite pro-Russian.
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Have you seen this test? on: Today at 05:37:43 pm
It's better than the Political Compass or Nolan chart because there are more dimensions, and they seem to be logical: one could be authoritarian but at the same time progressive (e. g. Jacobins or early Bolsheviks) or traditionalist but supportive of liberal democracy. Also a very nice-looking site, typically political test sites look like they came straight out of 90s.

This test has even more dimensions BTW.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Describe a Jospin 1995/Chirac 2002/Sarkozy 2007/Sarkozy 2012/Macron 2017 voter on: Today at 05:23:30 pm
If all of these are second round choices then it just could be a left-winger or a centrist with a strange personal sympathy for Sarkozy. Because Chirac 2002 and Macron 2017 were the only choices for such a person (besides staying home). In 1997, 2002 and 2017 in the first round he/she could pick any leftist or centrist candidate.

Or, alternatively, mainstream (e. g. non-FN) right-wing voter with a personal sympathy for Jospin, or, as per above, who was a PS supporter in 1995.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: United Nations Triumvirate Jungle Primary on: Today at 12:03:19 pm
The RND is obviously mostly right wing, but also includes left-populists who like Melenchon but dislike his party's pro-Russian stance.

So RND includes leftists who don't join Federal Alliance because of Melenchon's supposedly pro-Russian stance but OK with Le Pen's pro-Russian stance?!
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: United Nations Triumvirate Jungle Primary on: Today at 11:57:34 am
Many of these options are bizarre.

Only the following ones seem to have clear ideologies:
UDA - social liberalism
DL - social democracy (although Sanders and especially Corbyn are way to the left of an average social democrat and Gandhi is to the right)
AIU - autonomism/secessionism

LD seems to be just another mainstream social liberal or moderate social democratic party, so it's redundant.

CCB, I guess, supposed to be a pro-Russian/pro-Putin party (though if Putin actually was in charge of it, he wouldn't choose someone as insane as Zhirinovsky), being pro-Russian isn't an ideology but at least there is some logic.

RND and FA just don't make sense in their current shape.

Neither M5S nor Kirchner are nationalist, at least in the same sense Le Pen is nationalist, and they are definitely not right-wing; and while FN and M5S can cooperate on the European level, I don't know what common goal they can share with each other and with Kirchner in the UN.

FA, I presume, is a party for "authoritarian leftists", but actually Mélenchon would better fit into DL (instead of Gandhi), Zinaida Greceanîi would much better fit into CCB and Yermoshina hardly can be described as a leftist at all.

Needless to mention the options lack conservative, Christian democratic and Islamist parties.

And choices are not only France-centric but also ridiculously Moldova-centric (2 candidates from such a tiny country), and a total absence of politicians from mainland China looks strange.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 22, 2017, 06:35:22 pm


Surprisingly only very few 2012 Melenchon voters support Le Pen now, while a significant share of 2012 Hollande voters do this.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread on: April 21, 2017, 09:40:09 pm
Macron - 23.1 %
Le Pen - 23.1 %
Fillon - 21.8 %
Mélenchon - 16.7 %
Hamon - 7.3 %
Dupont-Aignan - 4.3 %
Lassalle - 1.6 %
Poutou - 1.1 %
Asselineau - 0.7 %
Arthaud - 0.2 %
Cheminade - 0.1 %

Turnout: 75.4 %.

Run-off:
Macron - 59.8 %
Le Pen - 40.2 %
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Belgian Politics & Elections on: April 18, 2017, 02:09:43 pm


This map shows MR winning districts in Flanders (around Brussels), how is it possible?
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of political parties that contain their leader's name in their name on: April 17, 2017, 06:13:11 pm
Also, Yabloko started as "Yavlinsky - Boldyrev - Lukin" bloc. There are also parties whose names are abbreviated to their leader's name or initials (En Marche!, KORWiN...) but this is also a somewhat different case.
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of political parties that contain their leader's name in their name on: April 17, 2017, 04:36:02 pm
HP. What are some examples other than the Joe Lieberman for Senate Party or parties with Marx in the name?

Katter's Australian Party, Palmer United Party, Kotleba – People's Party Our Slovakia, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, Lytvyn Bloc came to my mind, though the latter 2 are technically blocs.

Many other parties add name of the leader to their ballot name, seems to be a common practice in Serbia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbian_parliamentary_election,_2016.

But parties with "Marxist" in their name don't count since Marx isn't leader of any of them.
11  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Chechen police are rounding-up, killing, gay men on: April 10, 2017, 06:03:03 pm

AFAiK no reliable news site is reporting this, we'll have to wait to see if this is true

Novaya Gazeta itself doesn't use the words "concentration camps", but it reports that arrested gays are put into a secret prison where they are severely beaten and tortured. Though I don't think it's really a news at all: it was already reported that homosexuals are detained and some of them are dead and it wasn't hard to conclude that they probably died from torture.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 09, 2017, 11:45:01 am
Macron 53% - Mélenchon 47%

Surprisingly good result for Mélenchon. It looks like he gets the bulk of Le Pen voters in this scenario.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Formation of GreenRight on: April 07, 2017, 09:03:48 am
Why is it that PVV does not run candidates in all the municipalities?

Most parties don't run in every municipality.

GL, D66 and SP have a low presence in the Bible belt
SGP doesn't run in most cities
CU and SGP generally stay out of heavy Catholic areas.
PvdA didn't run in 2014 in several smaller municipalities last time like Urk, Renswoude and Nieuwkoop.

But I thought PVV has a significant enough presence in almost all municipalities.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Why is Kaliningrad not part of Lithuania (or Poland)? on: April 03, 2017, 03:28:01 pm
It wasn't uncommon to do odd things with internal borders to divide people up in odd ways: the borders between the Central Asian republics bear little resemblance to anything that really existed before the mid-1930s; they were just drawn up by the top brass in the USSR to abritrarily divide people up into different nationalities that never really existed: and in many ways still don't.

The problem with Central Asia was that there weren't any national identities in the region before the Soviets.

Actually all 5 Central Asian republics exist in the same or roughly similar borders since 1924-1925, although initially most of them were subdivisions within larger entities (Kazakh ASSR was part of the RSFSR, Tajik ASSR was part of the Uzbek SSR etc.). And these borders, unlike pre-revolutionary ones, reflect ethno-linguistic divisions pretty well. But, of course, if people in some area speak the same language, it doesn't yet make them a nation.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: April 03, 2017, 02:26:17 pm
New "Terrain" poll showing Melenchon in 3rd place:

Is this a reliable poll? All others give Melenchon only 15 %.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Why is Kaliningrad not part of Lithuania (or Poland)? on: April 01, 2017, 07:47:34 pm
I doubt Soviet leaders did care about keeping strategically important places within the RSFSR, unless they wouldn't transfer Crimea to Ukraine. It's possible they didn't take into account hypothetical dissolution of the USSR at all, but even if they took it into account, why should they somehow specially care what would happen to post-Soviet Russia which was only one of 15 republics? It's much more likely that Kaliningrad wasn't included into Lithuanian SSR simply because it didn't have a significant Lithuanian population and wasn't intended to be settled with Lithuanians (what prevented Soviet from populating it by Lithuanians is another question).
17  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Explain Ukrainian politics to me on: March 30, 2017, 08:03:23 pm
To be fair, without "independents" PoR and CPU already had together considerably more seats than "orange" parties (217 vs 178) thanks to single-member constituencies. But yes, majority of "independents" joined PoR soon after the election.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: March 30, 2017, 01:33:35 pm
French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

How exactly do they distinguish between realistic and unrealistic runoffs?
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Poll: 37% of young Russians want to restore the monarchy on: March 30, 2017, 12:20:03 am
I've just found a WCIOM poll which is probably the poll mentioned in this article (though it was conducted not by Izvestia, which is a newspaper, but by WCIOM, and some numbers are the same, but some others are different; either way, WCIOM poll deserves more trust than a poll allegedly conducted by a newspaper and cited without any links by a monarchist web site).

Actual results, as usual, depend on what exactly people are asked.

What form of government better is better for Russia?
Monarchy - 8 % (down from 11 % in 2013)
Republic - 88 % (up from 82 %)

What opinion about monarchy is closer to you?
I support monarchy and see a person who could become a monarch - 6 %
I am in principle not opposed to monarchy but do not see a person who could become a monarch - 22 %
I oppose monarchy - 68 %

Younger people tend to be very slightly pro-monarchy (among people aged 18-24 results are 7 %, 26 % and 64 % respectively, among people in 60+ group they are 3 %, 13 % and 79 %, difference with other age groups is less significant). In Moscow and St. Petersburg indeed 37 % chose the first or the second option, although it is obviously incorrect to group them as "supporters of monarchy restoration".

These numbers are believable and are fairly stable since 2006 when this question was asked for the first time. It worth note that restoration of monarchy was never seriously discussed and if it will started to be discussed regularly public opinion can change. For example, in an extremely unlikely case if Putin and Russian media will start agitate people for monarchy (maybe Putin will decide to declare himself a monarch, or, which is less hilarious, to become Russian Francisco Franco), pro-monarchist sentiments could rise massively.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: March 29, 2017, 09:50:33 pm
But PS always was much stronger than PvdA, so at least in the relative terms it's defeat is bigger. Also, I think it has much more chances to suffer a large split in the very near future, and a chance to cease to exist entirely.
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Alexei Navalny? on: March 29, 2017, 08:04:42 pm
Seems like an anti-liberal, (ethnic) nationalist democrat

Why do you think he's anti-liberal?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: March 29, 2017, 07:45:50 pm
I'd say PS is already in the same, if not worse, position as the Dutch Labor Party; now it could fall even lower, though.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Explain Ukrainian politics to me on: March 29, 2017, 02:39:17 pm
Orange parties are definitely more free market. Both Poroshenko Bloc and Fatherland are in the European People's Party.

It's possible that if Party of Regions had any European affiliation, it would join EPP as well. Also, not all EPP members are very pro-market, some are centrist. By the way, this is 2014 Party of Regions economic program (from Wikipedia):
Quote
On 7 April 2014 the party presented its new economic doctrine that consisted of minimal taxes and fees, maximum investor protection, increasing investment attractiveness, as well as deregulation and simplification of licensing procedures, the establishment of a transparent tax system and tax cuts (a reduction of income tax to 12.5%, reducing the income tax rate to 14%), decreasing the inspections of small and medium-sized businesses to not more than once in 5 years, maintaining a 15-year preferential tax system in agriculture, the introduction of effective direct subsidies to farmers to compete on the world market, a compensation of 50% of new fixed assets in crop and livestock in creation of new industries.

Though I do not insist that "blue" parties are more economically right-wing. It's even very likely they are, on average, more economically left-wing (especially if you count Communist Party). What I say is that both "blue" and "orange" political camps include parties and politicians with very different stances on economy and these stances can change very significantly over time (depending, for example, on whether this party is in government or in opposition), so I would avoid making any generalizations.
24  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Explain Ukrainian politics to me on: March 29, 2017, 12:31:40 am
I'm not sure "orange" parties tend to be more right-wing economically and I wouldn't say Opposition Bloc is "socially liberal" (even if they are somehow, by some metrics, happen to be more socially liberal than others, "social liberalism" means nothing to Ukrainian voters, most of American social issues such as abortion don't exist or barely exist in Ukraine). Although in the case of Freedom, I think, label "economically left-wing" can be applied indeed, they are more or less regularly described in this way and call themselves "social nationalists".

Most of Ukrainian parties seem to be populist personal vehicles. Typically, their programs are less relevant than persons of their leaders. Though different leaders appeal to different demographics: firstly there is still a well-known geographical cleavage, secondly, if we speak about the differences between "orange" parties, Radical Party and Fatherland (read: Lyashko and Tymoshenko) electorate is more agrarian and less educated while Self-Reliance (and, I presume, Saakashvili's party) is more popular among urban middle-class voters.

By the way, the most recent poll shows a party named For life, led by Jewish businessman Rabinovych (2014 presidential candidate, though I wouldn't call him a serious candidate and before this he was virtually unknown), at the 3rd place with 11.8 %. It seems to be another "blue" ("South-Eastern", relatively pro-Russian etc.) party. I can only guess, who and why votes for it, apparently South-Easterners disaffected with both the ruling coalition and Opposition Bloc.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2017 French Presidential Election on: March 28, 2017, 01:05:15 pm
Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

So Hamon supports basic income, while Mélenchon, who is to the left of Hamon, opposes it?
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