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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Terri Schiavo's feeding tube have been removed? on: December 20, 2015, 08:18:02 am
The family wanted the tube removed

Not entire family, there was a conflict between her husband, who wanted the tube removed, and her parents, who were against this.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: The US and EU switch electoral systems on: December 05, 2015, 08:30:47 pm
I think European countries are still too different from each other, with different issues being salient, so it's very hard to say how people would vote. But, probably, we can assume that Nordic countries would be the bluest (using the most common American color scheme, where blue means left-wing and red means right-wing). France and the Netherlands likely would be blue too. Eastern Europe probably would be red; currently Poland and Hungary seem to be the most right-wing in Europe, though I'm not sure if it is an established political tradition or a mere fluctuation (Poland had social democratic President only slightly more than 10 years ago). But at least on most social and cultural issues Eastern Europe tend to be more conservative.

In the USA anti-immigration far-right probably won't be as strong, but at the same time paleocons and radical Christians would be much stronger, and they would be probably part of the same far-right party as anti-immigration activists so overall far-right could be even stronger than in Europe.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Worldwide multi-party election on: December 02, 2015, 12:08:45 am
When I came up with that list I was imagining a system where every country would be guaranteed a certain number of representatives, but they would be allowed to determine how to select those people on their own - thus some countries might to a proportional selection, some might do first-past-the-post, and others (like North Korea) would just have the government appoint them.

It's possible that not only North Korea but many, if not most, other countries (including many democracies) would prefer to simply appoint representatives if they would be allowed this. So this world parliament will start to somewhat resemble the UN General Assembly except that most countries will have more than 1 vote...
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Worldwide multi-party election on: November 29, 2015, 09:36:05 pm
I'm curious how many Maoists in the world outside China still view China as a Communist state?

The answer is very very few.  Most reject Deng Xiaoping Theory and thus the vast majority of the actions taken by the Party since the 1980s.

There are quite a few legitimate old-school Maoists and Neo-Maoist New Left types both inside China as well as the Chinese diaspora who reject Deng Xiaoping Theory too.

Well, the picture is roughly how I imagined it.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Worldwide multi-party election on: November 29, 2015, 08:58:36 pm
Many depends on voting system.

If there will be proportional elections with a threshold on a global level, then we, of course, won't see Zionist Party, Juche Party and most probably even a Shi'a party (Shi'a Muslims make up at best 2-3 % of the world population, they are divided internally and not all of them would vote along religious lines). Latin American leftists will probably either unite with social democrats or form a worldwide coalition of reformed communists and democratic socialists. Greens could join social democrats or split between social democratic, democratic socialist and liberal coalitions. Only India and China could afford to have national parties running in global elections without being a part of any international party/coalition.

If there will be proportional elections on national level without a global threshold (like the EU parliamentary elections) or any kind of majoritarian elections, then already existing parties will continue to run the show (of course, political landscape will change drastically in a countries where there are no currently free competitive multi-party elections, though in many of them currently ruling party would still have a good chance to obtain majority of seats), and in the parliament most of them will form very loose coalitions, probably along the already existing internationals. Regional factor would be big as well: e. g. while many African parties will formally join Socialist or Liberal International, most of them could at the same time form a pan-African group, and division between developing and developed world (or, more likely, more developed and less developed parts of developing world, since developing world would dominate the world parliament due to it's huge population size) probably will be more significant in most cases than ideological differences (especially taking into account how many parties only nominally belong to their declared ideology). But while there will be quite a few of international coalitions of various kinds, it will take a lot of time until a truly worldwide parties (rather than a loose groupings of national parties) will emerge. Even in the EU, national parties still play more important role than pan-European ones.

Speaking about your list of possible parties: some of them will be too insignificant to worth mention, while at the same time you forgot about Christian democratic / conservative party similar to European People's Party which would unite major centre-right parties in Europe and possibly other parts of the world (the USA, Canada, Latin America etc.).

Maoist Party (far-left): Basically the "China party," and not necessarily trying to speak for all Maoists, but rather trying to promote the Chinese agenda.

Though Communist Party of China could try to form some kind of global coalition, Maoists (except CPC itself which is now Maoist in name only) are too weak, and most of them seem to prefer guerilla warfare to participation in legal elections... and I'm curious how many Maoists in the world outside China still view China as a Communist state? More likely, CPC will try to join The United Left (AFAIK Vietnam is as capitalist as China, so if The United Left accepts Vietnamese Communists, they should accept Chinese ones too).

Indigenous People's Party (left-wing): Supports indigenous people around the world, anti-colonialist.

Most of the indigenous peoples are either too small to form even remotely significant voting bloc, or already have their own independent state (so they don't need any anti-colonialism), or don't express desire to have a party that represents specifically their interests, and they are very different culturally and sometimes have contradicting interests... though there probably could be an alliance of separatist movements (similar to the already existing Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization) and it could also include some non-separatist ethnic or regionalist movements.

People's Congress (big tent): India's counterweight to China, no coherent ideology beyond promoting Indian interests.
Zionist Party (big tent): Meant to be the party for Jews around the world, but support is largely concentrated in Israel.

So you think that in India and Israel most of the significant parties will merge into one? Why? Even if this will happen, an opposition to this dominant party will emerge very soon, and after a several elections voters will become tired of the ruling party and opposition will win... In fact, India already was a dominant-party state before the 70s, so the story can repeat itself there. More likely, India and Israel would stay with roughly the same parties as now, though, of course, most of them will have the same or very similar position on many issues affecting Indian or Israeli national interests. Depending on the electoral system, there could be a single Zionist list running outside of Israel to attract some of the Jewish diaspora votes, but even this is unlikely.

Juche Party (left-wing): North Korea's party

By the way, how many people would vote for these guys in a free multi-party elections? In China and many other authoritarian regimes the ruling party is popular and have a good chance to gather majority of votes, but we can only guess what will happen in NK after it's unprecedented information isolation will be lifted or at least after people will be allowed to form opposition parties and freely criticize government (which is a prerequisite for a competitive election). Even if NK will become as democratic as China now, it will be a huge change with unpredictable and probably catastrophic outcome for the Kim dynasty (and, very likely, the entire country too). So I doubt there will be a "Juche party" at all. Though, maybe, the Workers' Party of Korea will survive, reform itself and expel the most odious members; in that case it could re-brand itself as a communist or social democratic party, or abandon socialism entirely and pose itself just as a Korean nationalist party.

Qutbist Party (right-wing): Party for far-right Islamists

How exactly far-right? To the extent of ISIS? Looking at al-Qaeda and ISIS currently fighting each other in Syria, I'm not sure they could form a single party (even if we assume they will be allowed to run in the elections). Though, maybe, you meant less extreme Islamists, like Egyptian al-Nour. Well, there will probably be enough room between your Islamic Justice Party and ISIS for such party.
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Political compass's commentary on the 2012 election on: November 22, 2015, 08:21:18 pm
Aren't these the people who put Labour in the same quadrant right next to the Conservatives?
Yes: https://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010, https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015.
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Politics Test: #44 on: November 15, 2015, 02:44:52 pm
Why do you disagree?
Isn't it obvious? He's a libertarian.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Poland election - October 25 2015 on: October 29, 2015, 08:01:08 pm
Why are Poles in the USA so pro-PiS?
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Poland election - October 25 2015 on: October 26, 2015, 07:26:32 pm
ZL defeat (which seem to be caused, among other things, by voters' shift to Razem right before the elections) looks like a very good news for Razem. I can even imagine Razem emerging as the main (centre-)left party by the next elections.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Election Season in Argentina (General Election, Oct 25) on: October 26, 2015, 12:37:42 pm
It's amusing to see how SaŠ got only 1.67% nationally but still won his family's stronghold San Luis.

11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Poland election - October 25 2015 on: October 26, 2015, 08:14:49 am
According to this, majority of 2011 PPP voters now support PO and PiS and only 4.3% of them voted for ZL. How it is possible? PPP is a small far-left party which is a part of ZL now. Is there some kind of mistake?
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Poland election - October 25 2015 on: October 26, 2015, 08:10:18 am
With these results, Poland will become the most right wing country in Europe, with no left party in 460 seat parlament Smiley
Isn't it already the most right-wing in the EU, with both 2 main parties being right-wing, social democrats diminished to 27 seats and Palikot's party (liberals who proposed to introduce a flat tax) regarded as "left-wing" by Polish standards? In Hungary centre-left at least remains the largest opposition force (though, on the other hand, there is Jobbik in Hungary, which is way to the right of any significant Polish party). And yes, now when there will be no SLD or Palikot at all in parliament, Poland shifts even further to the right.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Poland election - October 25 2015 on: October 23, 2015, 10:33:35 pm
My prediction:

PiS 39%
PO 21%
Kukiz'15 9%
ZL 8%
.N 7%
PSL 5.5%
Razem 4.5%
Others 2%
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who is more left-wing? on: October 19, 2015, 04:21:31 pm
The stupidest thing about using gay marriage as an example is the Democrats got fully behind it before almost ALL European conservative parties, most of which still aren't fully in favor. The only exceptions would be some of the Scandinavian ones and the Dutch VVD.

VVD just isn't conservative, at least on social issues. Though even CDA, the most socially conservative of major Dutch parties, supports same-sex marriage, if I'm not mistaken.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2015 Canadian federal election-Official Predictions Thread Competition on: October 18, 2015, 03:39:05 pm
Liberals: 150
Conservatives: 120
NDP: 63
BQ: 4
Greens: 1
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What was Teddy Roosevelt's ideology? on: October 13, 2015, 11:19:32 pm
17  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: What's better: Absolute Monarchy, Military Dictatorship, or Theocracy? on: October 13, 2015, 11:14:13 pm
The military is normally the worst, as historically they're hardest to get rid of

Most of the military juntas of the 20th century didn't last for more than a decade or two and usually transformed peacefully or relatively peacefully into democracies, while absolute monarchies like Saudi Arabia, Oman or Qatar exist for generations and there is no chance of any significant political reforms in these countries in the foreseeable future...
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Weimar Maps III on: October 11, 2015, 07:52:15 pm
I didn't know Saxony was that industrialized. No surprise it was a stronghold of social democracy.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Poland election - October 25 2015 on: October 06, 2015, 10:22:24 am
Why didn't Razem join Zjednoczona Lewica? They have very few differences with Lewica and no chance to pass the threshold on their own, so now it seems they'll just spoil left-wing votes.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Kyrgyzstan parliamentary elections - October 4, 2015 on: October 04, 2015, 04:19:03 pm
Turnout reported to be 57.56 %, which means that only Social Democratic Party, Respublika - Ata-Zhurt bloc, Kyrgyzstan Party and Onuguu-Progress pass the threshold.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Republika Srpska referendum on most loaded poll question ever - September, 2015 on: July 31, 2015, 06:51:22 pm
So, to sum up: a joke referendum with a joke question in a joke autonomous entity within a joke country.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: 2016 - a bad year for election nerds on: July 31, 2015, 06:28:27 pm
Even Belarussian one are more interesting.
Elections aren't, but post-election protests could be an interesting thing to see...
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek election - January 25th 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 07:11:47 am
Quote from: Swedish Cheese link=topic=204845.msg4464652
Let's not forget that he is one of few leaders who managed to keep all his MPs through the last parliament.

Actually the only one

Isn't KKE also kept all its MPs?
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greek parliamentary election predictions thread on: January 23, 2015, 01:28:09 pm
SYRIZA 35.1%
ND 32.9%
XA 6.6%
To Potami 6.1%
KKE 5.0%
PASOK 4.1%
Kinima 3.1%
ANEL 2.4%
LAOS 1.0%
DIMAR 0.8%
Others 2.9%
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Merry Christmas/whatever from your friendly local Caudillo on: December 28, 2014, 09:23:04 pm
"Northern Front" should be placed somewhere around Baltics, not amidst the Arctic Ocean.

Is that a Tatar regionalist party I see there - the bit of light green in a sea of orangey-brown?

Yes, although I can't give more details. I got the results from a document which is entirely in Russian, so I had a hard time deciphering the party labels. Karelia also seems odd, and I can't vouch for the accuracy of the results there on the map; another source I saw put the SRs victorious there.

In sources I know those who won in green regions are labelled as "Socialists", and I can only guess what exact socialists are meant, but judging by their geography and some other things it seems they indeed were Ukrainian SRs and other regional/ethnic socialists.

Besides Tatars, there were also Chuvash and maybe Mari lists in Kazan Governorate.

In Olonets Governorate (Karelia) 84.63% votes were obtained by "Socialists" and another 13.50% by Kadets. In that case "Socialists" probably means all socialist parties combined, including SRs, Bolsheviks and Mensheviks.
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