Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 27, 2016, 08:53:18 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 10
1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 22, 2016, 05:46:57 pm
Vladimir Volfovich Eidelstein Zhirinovskiy

Wait.

Wait.

Zhirinovsky is a Jew? Zhirinovsky?!

This isn't even the craziest thing about LDPR. I'd say LDPR is the biggest and the most successful joke party in the world history.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 22, 2016, 05:35:17 pm
Will Putin go full on North Korean and require the three other parties to join a United Front with UR, and then present voters with a single candidate list?

Nah. No need to. More trouble than it is worth.

And, BTW, this would not be North Korea. This is good old Soviet Russia. There were no "other parties" there. There was just the strong and united "Bloc of the Communists and non-party members".

I'm nitpicking, but what he described (several nominally independent parties united in a bloc and a single candidate list) is exactly North Korea (or China, or East Germany etc.) and not the USSR. Wouldn't say there is a difference though (except that these parties can become truly independent in case of democratization like it actually happened in East Germany).
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 18, 2016, 05:30:04 pm
And "United Russia" could win even some more: about half of districts, which went for other parties didn't have "United Russia" candidates at all.

Yes, I forgot to mention this. United Russia didn't field candidates in 18 districts (I thought this number is smaller), including a places where Civic Platform and Rodina leaders run (unsurprisingly since Rodina leader Zhuravlyov is a former UR member). So actually not even a half, but a majority.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 18, 2016, 05:09:58 pm
Didn't win yet, just leading in vote count. It wasn't entirely unexpected for liberal opposition to win a seat or two in some places where they have a strong candidate and vote rigging is small. 3 years ago Yabloko-backed independent won mayoral elections in Petrozavodsk.

Update (single-member districts): United Russia 198, KPRF 7, A Just Russia 5, LDPR 5, Civic Platform 1, Growth Party 1, Yabloko 1, independent 1; another 5 districts didn't report any results yet.

In multi-member constituency United Russia result is 52 % now and this percentage will probably continue to grow.

So the only thing that actually surprised me is a turnout, I expected it to be lower, but not that low.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 18, 2016, 04:00:40 pm
A very preliminary official results for single-member districts: United Russia 180, A Just Russia 6, KPRF 5, LDPR 4, Growth Party 2, Civic Platform 1, Rodina 1 and, notably, Yabloko 1.

Another very notorious fact is that turnout is a record low (40.37 % down from 60.1 % in 2011). And this is despite regional differences clearly show that it was falsified in some places (Kemerovo oblast 80 %, Tymen oblast 74 % etc.). But in most regions turnout doesn't seem to be especially abnormal (map) which, together with not very impressive United Russia result, suggests that overall level of vote fraud probably isn't that high.

So far the 5th place is occupied by Communists of Russia who siphoned off many KPRF votes (they ran under a similar name "Communist Party Communists of Russia" and a very similar logo and many KPRF voters are senile pensioners who can be easily fooled by such tricks).
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: September 13, 2016, 05:45:37 pm
Remember that in 2002 there was a huge mobilisation by the Plural Left in France to elect Chirac by a huge margin in the 2nd round. Several protests in the street against the FN candidate. Endorsements from Mamere, Taubira, Chevenement and of course Jospin. How did Chirac reward them? Jean-Pierre Raffarin as PM. So they probably won't do that again.

I doubt they expected any rewards. More likely they just didn't have any choices other than to actively endorse Chirac because they believed possible Le Pen presidency to be a total disaster.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: September 10, 2016, 08:06:49 pm
Yabloko stated that they would exchange Crimea for an iPhone

It seems you're wrong.

I became curious where did Yabloko say this, but found out only an article on a not well known site whose author figuratively tells that Yabloko proposes to exchange Crimea for iPhone; in the article he comments a political ad where Yavlinsky parodies iPhone presentation (keep in mind that "Yabloko" means "apple"), but this ad doesn't mention iPhone directly, and doesn't mention Crimea at all, directly or not.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: France: Strauss-Kahn in 2012 on: September 06, 2016, 12:58:18 pm
Strauss-Kahn performed much better in polls than Hollande or any other Socialist candidate in both rounds, so it seems his victory (most likely in a landslide) was almost guaranteed...
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: August 19, 2016, 07:52:39 pm
Anybody who knows more about Russian politics who can tell if any of the above are genuine opposition? Yabloko used to be decent if somewhat incompetent, but ISTR reading that they too had been infiltrated.

Of these 14, People's Freedom Party is certainly a genuine opposition. Yabloko too, maybe somewhat less genuine. It can be argued to what extent KPRF is an opposition.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: August 19, 2016, 07:32:21 pm
Wikipedia map is SVG, it can be rendered in different sizes up to 10000px.

Quick googling didn't find anything better.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would vote for in this hypothetical election? on: August 12, 2016, 01:26:54 pm
Ignoring the candidates, the anti-establishment Party sounds the best.

But the only thing we know about these parties are their candidates...
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Mensheviks on: June 21, 2016, 03:29:50 pm
seizing power when they had the chance
Did they ever had any chance?
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election (2nd round) June 5, 2016 on: June 08, 2016, 12:58:06 pm
Notice the similarity between Austria and Peru:

In German-speaking Austria, a guy with a Dutch name won a close race.

In Spanish-speaking Peru, a guy with a Polish name seems to be winning a close race.

Also, both of them won despite finishing a distant second in the 1st round.
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Barack Obama vs. Volume 15: Ronald Reagan on: June 07, 2016, 05:49:19 pm
Reagan did far more damage to the United States after he left office

How exactly?
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Barack Obama vs. Volume 15: Ronald Reagan on: June 07, 2016, 05:45:38 pm
Who is the one Democrat who voted Reagan?

It's even more interesting who is the Republican who voted Obama.
[/quote

Not really, as he's answered publicly above. Smiley

Yeah, I didn't notice him. Still, for me it's even harder to imagine Republican supporter of Obama than Democratic supporter of Reagan.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Barack Obama vs. Volume 15: Ronald Reagan on: June 07, 2016, 04:01:12 pm
Who is the one Democrat who voted Reagan?

It's even more interesting who is the Republican who voted Obama.
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Hail, Columbia! (Master Thread) on: May 20, 2016, 12:52:46 pm
Who was the youngest? The oldest?
Miguel Hidalgo (35 on the day of his inauguration) and Benjamin Franklin (78).

Van Buren was 30 on the day of his inauguration in 1813.
18  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: PRC political ideology by Province on: May 13, 2016, 06:24:58 pm
Thanks! It's strange that Shanxi is now one of the poorest provinces, despite it's mercantile traditions.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: PRC political ideology by Province on: May 13, 2016, 03:34:35 pm
Why these 2 isolated provinces in Central China, Shanxi and Hubei, are so "right-wing" despite their GDP per capita and HDI aren't much different from adjacent regions? Hubei is where Wuhan, one of the largest Chinese cities, is placed, but I doubt it affected study results significantly.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Presidential Election (RUNOFF) - Official Prediction Thread on: May 08, 2016, 08:10:16 am
Hofer 58.4 %
Van der Bellen 41.6 %
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: May 07, 2016, 09:23:51 pm
There is a very significant vote swing in Kosovo, where SNS rose from 51.32 % (barely better than average) in 2014 to 69.73 %, while SPS fell from 17.55 % to 9.99 % and Dveri-DSS from 14.54 % to 4.47 % (Kosovo was a DSS stronghold previously). I'm curious what's the reason of this. Suspiciously, turnout in Kosovo also rose by more than 10 %.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What three states are likely to have the highest % of people not voting... on: April 30, 2016, 06:26:39 pm
UT, AK, and NM (assuming Johnson is the Libertarian nominee - otherwise MT)

Why New Mexico? Trump is going to drive Hispanic turnout through the roof, and considering that NM is majority-minority, I don't see how their turnout would be on the lower side of the spectrum. Unless I am missing something here that is specific to New Mexico?

That depends on how you interpret "the highest % of people not voting for either Clinton or Trump in the general election". It could mean either a % of a total voting-age population, or a % of those who voted.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: April 27, 2016, 03:35:04 pm
Will the Progressives continue the coalition with the Socialists now that they have a majority on their own?

They already had a majority after the 2014 elections. If they included SPS in the ruling coalition then, they'll probably prefer to keep this coalition now, when SNS majority is much less solid.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: April 27, 2016, 03:29:57 pm
Anyway, Peter has already given the results, except the 30th SPS seat has gone to the Green party, who ran as a minority list and are now entering Parliament for the first time with 1 MP.

There are also 2 nominally Russian parties (which obtained many times more votes than there are Russians in Serbia and I doubt there are any Russians among their prominent members at all) as well as Republican Party led by ethnic Serbs but registered as a party of Hungarian minority. It looks like this "no threshold for minority lists" rule is regularly abused in Serbia.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election April 10, 2016 on: April 13, 2016, 07:37:05 pm
Santos' support must have been crazy localized if he only won 4% nationwide but still placed first in Cajamarca...
He is Cajamarca's governor (although he is in Jail) and apparently he is seen like a hero there because he opposed many Mining projects in the department (particularly Conga project).

So his 1st place in Cajamarca isn't surprising at all. His 3rd place (with 20 % of votes!) in Puno, which is at the opposite end of Peru, looks much more strange. Is there any explanation?
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 10


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines