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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Hail, Columbia! (Master Thread) on: May 20, 2016, 12:52:46 pm
Who was the youngest? The oldest?
Miguel Hidalgo (35 on the day of his inauguration) and Benjamin Franklin (78).

Van Buren was 30 on the day of his inauguration in 1813.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: PRC political ideology by Province on: May 13, 2016, 06:24:58 pm
Thanks! It's strange that Shanxi is now one of the poorest provinces, despite it's mercantile traditions.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: PRC political ideology by Province on: May 13, 2016, 03:34:35 pm
Why these 2 isolated provinces in Central China, Shanxi and Hubei, are so "right-wing" despite their GDP per capita and HDI aren't much different from adjacent regions? Hubei is where Wuhan, one of the largest Chinese cities, is placed, but I doubt it affected study results significantly.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Presidential Election (RUNOFF) - Official Prediction Thread on: May 08, 2016, 08:10:16 am
Hofer 58.4 %
Van der Bellen 41.6 %
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: May 07, 2016, 09:23:51 pm
There is a very significant vote swing in Kosovo, where SNS rose from 51.32 % (barely better than average) in 2014 to 69.73 %, while SPS fell from 17.55 % to 9.99 % and Dveri-DSS from 14.54 % to 4.47 % (Kosovo was a DSS stronghold previously). I'm curious what's the reason of this. Suspiciously, turnout in Kosovo also rose by more than 10 %.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What three states are likely to have the highest % of people not voting... on: April 30, 2016, 06:26:39 pm
UT, AK, and NM (assuming Johnson is the Libertarian nominee - otherwise MT)

Why New Mexico? Trump is going to drive Hispanic turnout through the roof, and considering that NM is majority-minority, I don't see how their turnout would be on the lower side of the spectrum. Unless I am missing something here that is specific to New Mexico?

That depends on how you interpret "the highest % of people not voting for either Clinton or Trump in the general election". It could mean either a % of a total voting-age population, or a % of those who voted.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: April 27, 2016, 03:35:04 pm
Will the Progressives continue the coalition with the Socialists now that they have a majority on their own?

They already had a majority after the 2014 elections. If they included SPS in the ruling coalition then, they'll probably prefer to keep this coalition now, when SNS majority is much less solid.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Serbian parliamentary elections - April 24 2016 on: April 27, 2016, 03:29:57 pm
Anyway, Peter has already given the results, except the 30th SPS seat has gone to the Green party, who ran as a minority list and are now entering Parliament for the first time with 1 MP.

There are also 2 nominally Russian parties (which obtained many times more votes than there are Russians in Serbia and I doubt there are any Russians among their prominent members at all) as well as Republican Party led by ethnic Serbs but registered as a party of Hungarian minority. It looks like this "no threshold for minority lists" rule is regularly abused in Serbia.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Peruvian presidential election April 10, 2016 on: April 13, 2016, 07:37:05 pm
Santos' support must have been crazy localized if he only won 4% nationwide but still placed first in Cajamarca...
He is Cajamarca's governor (although he is in Jail) and apparently he is seen like a hero there because he opposed many Mining projects in the department (particularly Conga project).

So his 1st place in Cajamarca isn't surprising at all. His 3rd place (with 20 % of votes!) in Puno, which is at the opposite end of Peru, looks much more strange. Is there any explanation?
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: VP for Cruz on: April 08, 2016, 06:10:37 pm
The only one of those I would find viable is Fiorina, and that's still a long shot. Rubio, Ryan and Kasich are too moderate/establishment to appeal to the disaffected Drumpf voters.

Cruz also needs to appeal to moderate pro-establishment voters. And how many Trump supporters (of those who don't intend to vote for Cruz in the GE) will change their minds if Fiorina runs as VP? I guess not so many.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Can you be left-wing without being a liberal? on: April 08, 2016, 03:25:28 pm
Most of the Communist counties banned homosexuality and abortion.

Specifically abortion isn't a good example: when the Soviet Union re-legalized abortion in 1955 (soon followed by most of it's Eastern European satellite states), it was ahead of most of the Western world, East Germany made abortion legal several years earlier than West Germany, and Cuba is one of only a few Latin American nations where abortion is entirely legal.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Icelandic parliamentary election 2016 on: April 07, 2016, 04:45:24 pm
Progress Party -- 10.8% (down 1.2% since their poll last week, down 13.6% since the 2013 election)

1.2 % is surprisingly little, 2 other polls conducted after the Panama Papers indicate a more significant decline.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: US Presidential Election, 1948 on: March 29, 2016, 07:04:03 pm
Thurmond also would have been the most likely to prevent the loss of China to the reds.

How exactly?

By early 1949, after a series of decisive Communist victories, it was too late.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 10:50:26 pm
From what I remember last time, the ballot stuffing in 2011 was due to overeager regional cronies showing off and I'm willing to bet they'll be instructed to knock that off because it was really embarrassing for Russia.

Vote rigging will happen for sure, but maybe on a smaller scale due to the reasons you've stated.

This time around, there's literally no non-joke opposition that hasn't been pushed off the scene

Actually, there are basically no changes from the last election: all the parties (including those that can be counted as opposition) from 2011 election will probably run, and, moreover, PARNAS (one of the 3 main parties of liberal opposition, together with Yabloko and unregistered Progress Party) have a right to take part in the election this time.

Progress Party members will participate under PARNAS banner, and maybe all 3 parties will try to form a joint list. But even then they will have very little chance to succeed.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 10:19:31 pm
Wasn't there a pro-Kremlin free market party around a few years ago? Are they still around, and if so, how will they do?
Yes, Pravoye Delo. Hailed by free-market Westerners, but also widely regarded as belonging to the category of fake opposition parties. They also belong to the category of 14 parties that do not have to have 150,000 signatures to contend in the elections and I suppose they might contend, although I don't find anything indicating they will do so on their website (but my Russian isn't that good), which is basically full of uninteresting facts. Indicates that even if they contend, they probably won't reach the threshold.

Interesting article on the party here, indicating that they are virtually dead, but I'm not sure if that is still the case. They have seats in the regional parliaments of Ingushetia and Dagestan, presumably because they are fiscally liberal and socially conservative Tongue

Prokhorov created his own party, named Civic Platform, in 2012. By the way, Roizman (mentioned in the article) won 2013 mayoral elections in Yekaterinburg under Civic Platform banner.

But later Prokhorov lost control over his new creation (not sure to what extent it was again due to Kremlin manipulations) and left it. Now both Right Cause and Civic Platform are dead corpses, though they will probably take part in the elections as spoilers.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 10:03:11 pm
The Communists also took over many of United Russia's talking points, e.g. regarding "propaganda" for homosexuality.

Actually, they were anti-gay long before it was cool, I mean, before United Russia started it's anti-LGBT campaign.

Polls have the party around 6%, just over the 5% threshold, but I would be very surprised if the party wouldn't reach the threshold (and that has not much to do with actual electoral popularity).

No, Kremlin won't actively help it to get into the parliament. Maybe initially there was an intention to establish a fake two-party system with "right-wing" United Russia and "left-wing" A Just Russia, but if such plan ever existed, it was abandoned long ago. Ahead of the 2011 elections, A Just Russia went out of control, at least partially, and some of it's members played a major role in 2011-2012 protests together with non-system opposition. Most of them have been expelled from the party since then, and now it seems to be as pro-Kremlin as it was initially. But even in 2007, when A Just Russia was fully loyal to it's masters and close to not passing the threshold, the only party that got "votes" due to rigging was United Russia. And things probably won't change this time.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Russian legislative election, 18 September 2016 on: February 27, 2016, 08:58:12 pm
Oddly, in 2011, the opinion polls put United Russia about 5% higher than they actually got in the Duma election. This might be down to turnout or due to the last poll being two weeks before the elections, rather than anything radical. Also, United Russia were way down on the previous election in 2007.

VCIOM poll (19-20 Nov 2011):
United Russia - 53.7%
Communist - 16.7%
Liberal Dems - 11.6%
A Just Russia - 10.0%

Duma election (4 Dec 2011)
United Russia - 49.3% (-15.0 on 2007)
Communist - 19.2% (+7.6)
A Just Russia - 13.2% (+5.5)
Liberal Dems - 11.7% (+3.5)

That's not to say that there wasn't voting fraud, as it's pretty clear that there was. It would be interesting to know how transparent Russian opinion polling is, though.

This is mostly because of conformism (people give socially desirable responses) and because of undecideds more often tend to support opposition parties in the last moment. By the way, Navalny (one of the main leaders of non-system opposition) called his supporters to vote for any party besides United Russia (though this probably had little direct effect). Note that the poll underestimated KPRF (which is reluctantly supported by many anti-ER voters as the largest alternative and more genuine opposition than other 2 parliamentary parties) and A Just Russia (which is less unacceptable for many voters because, unlike KPRF and LDPR, it doesn't adhere to extremist ideology), but not LDPR. In all other polls, A Just Russia also was at the 4th place.

Turnout probably also affected results. And it's also likely that in the last 2 weeks United Russia actually lost some support.

Polls tend to overestimate pro-government candidates and somewhat overestimate LDPR (because of lower turnout of LDPR supporters). In the 2011 elections the difference between polls and official election results was small due to vote rigging, but in the 2013 Moscow mayoral elections, where there was very little vote fraud, Navalny surprisingly received much more votes than it was predicted by any pollster.
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would Attila the Hun support to be president? on: February 16, 2016, 12:21:58 pm
Attila was pro-immigration, he would never support Trump :-).
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Terri Schiavo's feeding tube have been removed? on: December 20, 2015, 08:18:02 am
The family wanted the tube removed

Not entire family, there was a conflict between her husband, who wanted the tube removed, and her parents, who were against this.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: The US and EU switch electoral systems on: December 05, 2015, 08:30:47 pm
I think European countries are still too different from each other, with different issues being salient, so it's very hard to say how people would vote. But, probably, we can assume that Nordic countries would be the bluest (using the most common American color scheme, where blue means left-wing and red means right-wing). France and the Netherlands likely would be blue too. Eastern Europe probably would be red; currently Poland and Hungary seem to be the most right-wing in Europe, though I'm not sure if it is an established political tradition or a mere fluctuation (Poland had social democratic President only slightly more than 10 years ago). But at least on most social and cultural issues Eastern Europe tend to be more conservative.

In the USA anti-immigration far-right probably won't be as strong, but at the same time paleocons and radical Christians would be much stronger, and they would be probably part of the same far-right party as anti-immigration activists so overall far-right could be even stronger than in Europe.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Worldwide multi-party election on: December 02, 2015, 12:08:45 am
When I came up with that list I was imagining a system where every country would be guaranteed a certain number of representatives, but they would be allowed to determine how to select those people on their own - thus some countries might to a proportional selection, some might do first-past-the-post, and others (like North Korea) would just have the government appoint them.

It's possible that not only North Korea but many, if not most, other countries (including many democracies) would prefer to simply appoint representatives if they would be allowed this. So this world parliament will start to somewhat resemble the UN General Assembly except that most countries will have more than 1 vote...
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Worldwide multi-party election on: November 29, 2015, 09:36:05 pm
I'm curious how many Maoists in the world outside China still view China as a Communist state?

The answer is very very few.  Most reject Deng Xiaoping Theory and thus the vast majority of the actions taken by the Party since the 1980s.

There are quite a few legitimate old-school Maoists and Neo-Maoist New Left types both inside China as well as the Chinese diaspora who reject Deng Xiaoping Theory too.

Well, the picture is roughly how I imagined it.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Worldwide multi-party election on: November 29, 2015, 08:58:36 pm
Many depends on voting system.

If there will be proportional elections with a threshold on a global level, then we, of course, won't see Zionist Party, Juche Party and most probably even a Shi'a party (Shi'a Muslims make up at best 2-3 % of the world population, they are divided internally and not all of them would vote along religious lines). Latin American leftists will probably either unite with social democrats or form a worldwide coalition of reformed communists and democratic socialists. Greens could join social democrats or split between social democratic, democratic socialist and liberal coalitions. Only India and China could afford to have national parties running in global elections without being a part of any international party/coalition.

If there will be proportional elections on national level without a global threshold (like the EU parliamentary elections) or any kind of majoritarian elections, then already existing parties will continue to run the show (of course, political landscape will change drastically in a countries where there are no currently free competitive multi-party elections, though in many of them currently ruling party would still have a good chance to obtain majority of seats), and in the parliament most of them will form very loose coalitions, probably along the already existing internationals. Regional factor would be big as well: e. g. while many African parties will formally join Socialist or Liberal International, most of them could at the same time form a pan-African group, and division between developing and developed world (or, more likely, more developed and less developed parts of developing world, since developing world would dominate the world parliament due to it's huge population size) probably will be more significant in most cases than ideological differences (especially taking into account how many parties only nominally belong to their declared ideology). But while there will be quite a few of international coalitions of various kinds, it will take a lot of time until a truly worldwide parties (rather than a loose groupings of national parties) will emerge. Even in the EU, national parties still play more important role than pan-European ones.

Speaking about your list of possible parties: some of them will be too insignificant to worth mention, while at the same time you forgot about Christian democratic / conservative party similar to European People's Party which would unite major centre-right parties in Europe and possibly other parts of the world (the USA, Canada, Latin America etc.).

Maoist Party (far-left): Basically the "China party," and not necessarily trying to speak for all Maoists, but rather trying to promote the Chinese agenda.

Though Communist Party of China could try to form some kind of global coalition, Maoists (except CPC itself which is now Maoist in name only) are too weak, and most of them seem to prefer guerilla warfare to participation in legal elections... and I'm curious how many Maoists in the world outside China still view China as a Communist state? More likely, CPC will try to join The United Left (AFAIK Vietnam is as capitalist as China, so if The United Left accepts Vietnamese Communists, they should accept Chinese ones too).

Indigenous People's Party (left-wing): Supports indigenous people around the world, anti-colonialist.

Most of the indigenous peoples are either too small to form even remotely significant voting bloc, or already have their own independent state (so they don't need any anti-colonialism), or don't express desire to have a party that represents specifically their interests, and they are very different culturally and sometimes have contradicting interests... though there probably could be an alliance of separatist movements (similar to the already existing Unrepresented Nations and Peoples Organization) and it could also include some non-separatist ethnic or regionalist movements.

People's Congress (big tent): India's counterweight to China, no coherent ideology beyond promoting Indian interests.
Zionist Party (big tent): Meant to be the party for Jews around the world, but support is largely concentrated in Israel.

So you think that in India and Israel most of the significant parties will merge into one? Why? Even if this will happen, an opposition to this dominant party will emerge very soon, and after a several elections voters will become tired of the ruling party and opposition will win... In fact, India already was a dominant-party state before the 70s, so the story can repeat itself there. More likely, India and Israel would stay with roughly the same parties as now, though, of course, most of them will have the same or very similar position on many issues affecting Indian or Israeli national interests. Depending on the electoral system, there could be a single Zionist list running outside of Israel to attract some of the Jewish diaspora votes, but even this is unlikely.

Juche Party (left-wing): North Korea's party

By the way, how many people would vote for these guys in a free multi-party elections? In China and many other authoritarian regimes the ruling party is popular and have a good chance to gather majority of votes, but we can only guess what will happen in NK after it's unprecedented information isolation will be lifted or at least after people will be allowed to form opposition parties and freely criticize government (which is a prerequisite for a competitive election). Even if NK will become as democratic as China now, it will be a huge change with unpredictable and probably catastrophic outcome for the Kim dynasty (and, very likely, the entire country too). So I doubt there will be a "Juche party" at all. Though, maybe, the Workers' Party of Korea will survive, reform itself and expel the most odious members; in that case it could re-brand itself as a communist or social democratic party, or abandon socialism entirely and pose itself just as a Korean nationalist party.

Qutbist Party (right-wing): Party for far-right Islamists

How exactly far-right? To the extent of ISIS? Looking at al-Qaeda and ISIS currently fighting each other in Syria, I'm not sure they could form a single party (even if we assume they will be allowed to run in the elections). Though, maybe, you meant less extreme Islamists, like Egyptian al-Nour. Well, there will probably be enough room between your Islamic Justice Party and ISIS for such party.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Political compass's commentary on the 2012 election on: November 22, 2015, 08:21:18 pm
Aren't these the people who put Labour in the same quadrant right next to the Conservatives?
Yes: https://www.politicalcompass.org/ukparties2010, https://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015.
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The Politics Test: #44 on: November 15, 2015, 02:44:52 pm
Why do you disagree?
Isn't it obvious? He's a libertarian.
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