racist Melenchon

Why do you consider him racist?

Any predictions ?

55% Maduro
44% Capriles
1% others

In Brazil's History is very uncommon a president that fails to get reelected

AFAIK it's not only uncommon, it never happened.

Due to proximity and natural resources in its borders, I honestly expect Afghanistan to fall into the Chinese sphere of influence after we leave.

What proximity?

Afghanistan and China share a (minuscule) border.

There are no roads that cross said border, though. All routes from Afghanistan to China go through Tajikistan (or other countries). And Kashgar is not exactly the most Chinese city in China.

True.

Actually getting to Afghanistan is almost certainly easier from Russia and India than from China. Oh, and from Iran, of course.

India? Probably you meant Pakistan?

Perfect party for me would be socially liberal (gay rights, drug legalization [even though I'm not taking any]) but at the same time fiscally conservative (small government, little to no deficit spending...i.e. the exact opposite of what appears to be happening within the eurozone right now).

So the only reason you can't support FDP is its pro-euro stance?

Note that politics in most of the western world is also largely deideologized

...and politics outside the western world is generally even more deideologized than in the western world.

Why would the CIA assassinate Capriles?

Maybe Maduro thinks that USA is going to blame him and other Chavists for Capriles' assisination (and, of course, to disrupt election and to destabilize situation in Venezuela, but this aims can be achieved by Maduro's assassination too)?

And why would Maduro warn about that?

To show how fair and honest he is even with a bitter rival?

In theory I suppose four candidates could make it to the run-off if turnout were high and the candidates split the first-round vote quite evenly.

Yes, and this occurred in the past. In early times of the Fifth Republic, when the threshold was lower, there were even 6-candidate run-offs.

La Repubblica has Berlusconi 0.4% higher than Google Politics & Elections but all the other numbers are the same. Any idea why?

Because Google doesn't include Grande Sud - MPA into Berlusconi's coalition.

Maybe it's too late, but I try to predict results too:
Bersani - 34.3%
   PD - 30.0%
   SEL - 3.4%
   DC - 0.5%
   SVP - 0.4%
Berlusconi - 29.3%
   PdL - 19.5%
   LN - 5.2%
   LD - 1.7%
   FdI - 1.6%
   Others - 1.3%
M5S - 18.9%
Monti - 10.3%
   SC - 6.9%
   UdC - 2.7%
   FLI - 0.7%
RC - 3.4%
FID - 2.4%
AGL - 0.5%
Others - 0.9%

Wikipedia states that UDEUR is now a part of Project South list which in turn is a part of Berlusconi's coalition.

For Senate elections bonus applied, but on a regional rather than national basis.

China holds indirect national elections.

There are worse major options even within Japan (the JRP, and to an extent New Komeito).

Why do you consider New Komeito to be worse? It is moderate and (as I heard) less corrupt party than LDP.

1. Don't even claim to be democracies (Saudi Arabia, Swaziland, China)

China claims to be democracy.

Anyway, if we're considering "parties which have a chance of forming government" as major and limiting it to only democratic systems:

Fidesz (Hungary)
Republican Party (United States)
BJP (India)
ANC (extremely sad to put them on this list, but in their modern form they count)
LDP (Japan)
PRI (Mexico)
Likud (Israel)

The above are in no particular order. There are probably more that I'm not thinking of right now.

Some other pretenders:
Party of Regions (Ukraine)
FJP (Egypt)
PdL (Italy)
Law and Justice (Poland)
Justice and Development Party (Turkey)

If we include countries that can hardly be called democracies but nevertheless aren't one-party dominant states then 1st place goes to Hezbollah or one of the Iranian conservative parties.

Are these major parties?

Both parties are major according to topicstarter's definition.

I'm confused. How could a party with "Democratic" in its name be anything but good?

It is "democratic" only in name.

being that there are black folks in both parties I don't think they'd support either.

Presense of black people in both major parties didn't prevent David Duke from being Democrat and then Republican.

What is the Amnistia Giustizia Liberta?

Do I understand correctly that support for JH-NU grows at the expense of Likud Beiteinu?

is there a chance that M5S would join the "Anti Corruption" coalition or are they really not joining anyone as I believe they previously stated?

According to Wikipedia, Grillo refused to join Civil Revolution.

Wikipedia also contains information about some liberal list named Stop the Decline (Fermare il Declino): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop_the_Decline. Are there any more information about it in English? Can it join, for example, Monti coalition?

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

Are there still any chances that Berlusconi and Monti will form united right-wing coalition?

Another 2 questions:
1. What are main differences between Hatnuah, Yeash Atid and Kadima besides different party leaders? I understand only that Hatnuah is probably to the left of others on Palestinian issue.
2. Am Shalem is a split from right-wing and religious Shas. So why is it situated in centre on compass, on some issues even to the left of centrist parties? Is Am Shalem simply a moderate version of Shas?