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December 04, 2016, 07:33:13 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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76  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you need a support group to get past a Trump victory? on: November 10, 2016, 08:48:44 pm
I don't need one for Trump's victory as much as I do for Clinton's loss.
77  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Please stop overreacting on: November 10, 2016, 08:32:06 pm
I agree. Democrats would have won the election had they nominated Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden. All they had to do was nominate someone who actually had actual appeal to midwestern working class white voters.

In other words, a man. You're sadly right.

That being said, the states that put him over were so, so close. She maybe could have pulled it out without Comey, but obviously the closeness would have been a real shocker/reality check. It's too bad we had to jump off the cliff to get that reality check, though, because I think she could have recalibrated after a decently successful first term.
78  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Hillary run again? on: November 10, 2016, 08:27:32 pm
The American electorate does not really understand her the way those of us with sense do. She would fail again, and it would be way too much to bare.

Although the bench does look really terrible, so who knows?

I'm still having such a hard time believing this happened, sigh. Sad She's just so fantastic and resilient and gracious... That concession speech was heartbreaking.
79  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Hillary Clinton so politically inept? on: November 10, 2016, 07:36:36 pm
BS, She isn't politically inept.  She doesn't have the natural charisma and being a woman president only makes it harder. Plus 30 years in public life with constant attacks can wear anyone down.

This.

Also, data drives strategy. She had bad data.
80  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democrats, who is your ideal candidate for 2020 with a >0% chance of running? on: November 10, 2016, 07:04:44 pm
Hillary Rodham Clinton.
81  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The risk of reading too much into the 2016 election results on: November 10, 2016, 07:03:02 pm
Going to the ridiculous left on economics and completely deemphasizing social justice is such a heartbreaking proposition to me. Sigh. When I think about it, Hillary really was my perfect candidate.

Democrats have to be really careful. They're going to misread this and nominate some Marxist lunatic in 2020 who even further ostracizes Rust Belt voters. Ughhhh.
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should the Democrats run a union leader in 2020? on: November 10, 2016, 05:29:08 pm
Elizabeth Shuler has been on my list for a while. I know she has a way with words - not exactly charisma, but a way of speaking that grabs your attention - but she doesn't seem to have political ambitions.

She won't pass the image test for Rust Belt heathens, sadly.

76-year-old Harold Schaitberger, who traitorously abandoned Hillary:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUr2DYoNBIg

He'd resonate up there.
83  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2020 Democratic Primary: Wide Open(NON-REPUBLICAN VOTERS ONLY) on: November 10, 2016, 05:09:24 pm
I'm not sure. A woman can't win yet, though.
84  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders not ruling out 2020 run on: November 10, 2016, 03:34:02 pm
Campaigning for the nominee of your de-facto party is not a death kiss.
85  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie Sanders not ruling out 2020 run on: November 10, 2016, 03:29:15 pm
Age is not an issue to us, but it will be to the kind of people you all naïvely think he'd be able to win over.

And also, f-ck anyone who thinks being too tied to Hillary Clinton would be a problem. She's not a toxic waste heap. Roll Eyes She just didn't make the right appeals to the right people.
86  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders would have won on: November 10, 2016, 02:14:58 pm
I just hate savaging a fundamentally good woman when it is not clear at all that she was as horrible as people are now wanting to say. Trump, apparently, was just really good. That wouldn't have changed against Sanders, and we can't know how he would have done. We do know, though, that we lost the primary, so the whole thing is stupid.

Even so... Michigan has a huge black population that might have been even less motivated by Sanders. Hillary reached other voters that he would have alienated. I just think this is so f-cking silly.
87  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you feel bad for Hillary Clinton? on: November 10, 2016, 02:09:35 pm
So tired of people saying she ran a bad campaign and holding it against her as a cardinal sin. Obviously it can't have been that great because, you know, it lost. But few of you were complaining at the time when the majority of evidence showed her winning by 5+ nationally through the whole damn thing. She would have readjusted if it had been clearer what they dynamics of the race really were, and hindsight is 20/20. Trump made a call to ignore the data and trust his gut. Turns out he was right, but we also can't really call it smart. He just had the winning strategy.

I am in reality extremely proud of the kind of campaign she ran. I'd never felt this way going into an election. A candidate was running on inclusion, competence, and grab basket of clear and positive plans for the country... against an animalistic dope. I guess we've learned that the winning strategy is to walk back all of this, which is perhaps the biggest loss of all.
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you feel bad for Hillary Clinton? on: November 10, 2016, 12:34:25 am
From the very bottom of my heart.
89  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Do you feel bad for Hillary Clinton? on: November 10, 2016, 12:33:25 am
I shed a few tears despite my bitterness; so yes, in a way. Especially after reading an article about how she carriers her bible everywhere and underlines it. But honestly, I don't want to humanize her right now cause it's harder to accept; if I feel like she's a good person it just makes me more depressed so it's easier to jump on the crooked Hillary bandwagon and blame her rather than bigoted Americans.

This is literally awful.
90  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders would have won on: November 10, 2016, 12:08:56 am
Fools. Bernie has spent more time at this game than Hillary and has way fewer accomplishments to his name. He has no existing rapport with minority communities.

People say the Clinton campaign misused Obama by sending him to North Carolina to gin up black turnout? Suit yourselves, but had they not done that she might have done even worse with black voters. They were not enthused, and they'd be even less enthused by a guy like Bernie who chalks everything up to economics (base) and presumes that race is window dressing (superstructure).

He'd be the foolish socialist who's wasted 30 years on misguided and unsuccessful projects. Maybe he does a little better in the electoral college, but there's also no guarantee he would have run away with the debates the way Clinton did (and presumably that helped her).

We are spending a lot of time talking about what the Democrats did wrong and not as much time talking about what Trump did right. He's what the people wanted and knew how to connect in a way that no one else could.
91  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Clinton appealing to nevertrumpers, suburban, educated whites? on: November 09, 2016, 10:02:19 pm
Polling indicated they were winnable and common sense would suggest that they'd be the most vulnerable slice of the GOP coalition under a Trump candidacy. Turns out conventional wisdom didn't apply.

Still, I would rather keep some social justice planks and try to appeal to Republicans who'd be receptive to them than abandon that and go economics, economics, economics.

Interesting to see that those of us interested in identity politics tend to be strong Hillary supporters and those of us interested in economics seem to be the Bernie folk. No wonder Hillary had a more diverse coalition.
92  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should I worry about Trump? on: November 09, 2016, 07:20:21 am
I can think of no other defining moment like this one that so perfectly illustrates privilege. If you aren't worried, you have it.
93  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Did the Russians hack the 2016 US Election? on: November 09, 2016, 05:38:25 am
My mind has certainly gone there, but I'm not inclined to deny facts I don't like.

There were some moments where it looked like we could be heading to a 269-269 tie with multiple very close states. It was looking like a perfect storm of chaos, and at that point I definitely contemplated the possibility.
94  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Was Trump not appealing to the western US? on: November 09, 2016, 05:16:14 am
Your double negative has set this poll up for failure, lol.
95  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why was Atlas so delusional about the election? on: November 09, 2016, 05:15:12 am
We were wrong for the right reasons. You were right for the wrong reasons. If you predicted a Trump win, you relied on gut that was not at the time borne out by factual metrics. But I guess we should start getting used to the "culture of gut" too though, because rationality is now out the window.
96  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How do you feel right now ? on: November 09, 2016, 04:32:59 am
Like I need off this forum. I want off this party, this forum, this whole interest in politics, at least until good sense reasserts itself.

Also this. There's just no decency and no order to things. It doesn't make sense. The whole thing reminds me that our institutions are not infallible things that help us "rise above" our own... materiality. In fact, they maybe amplify it. Because in the end, we're just f-cking animals. Equality, justice, rationality, fairness... they don't exist.

I really don't know where I go from here and where, like, the world goes from here. I feel empty.

I know the feeling, except I know where I'm going - you're already there. BC is my destination - I've got family on Vancouver Island. I can go visit them if things get bad, but what I really want/need is a work visa.

Come say hello if you're ever in Vancouver. We can talk about literally anything other than this election. Tongue
97  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Congratulations To President Donald J. Trump on: November 09, 2016, 04:29:29 am
Enjoy yourselves, Republicans. Now you're married to Trump. Everything bad that happens from here on out, you guys get the blame. The anger from lack of change won't be directed at Obama anymore, and the Trumpsters will turn on Trump like a pack of wolves. Also, about that Republican landslide in two years... yeah, don't think that's going to happen anymore. Your party is already less popular, but wait until Trump is actually expected to do more than talk... Oh boy.

Are you kidding?

There's no way they will, because you're falsely presuming that these people actually thirst for policy change. Things have improved over the last eight years. They don't care about that. They just feel culturally threatened. He can achieve nothing, but in four years all he has to do is start talking sh-t about brown people and the Chinese and they'll eat it up.
98  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump actually appoint a special prosecutor to imprison Clinton? on: November 09, 2016, 04:22:19 am
Deplorable scumbags, you people are. Welcome to Trump's America. Where defending the vulnerable against harassment and bigotry is the same as using degrading slurs.
99  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Clinton Dem Primary Voters - Do you take responsibility for Trump? on: November 09, 2016, 04:18:15 am
Absolutely not.

Bernie had, like, squat appeal to minorities because he hasn't put in the years working with those communities "on the ground."

Honestly, this is what I dread the most: the "Bernie would have won" sh-t. First, we really don't know that. Second, Hillary treated him with kid gloves because she understood the dynamics of the cycle and knew she couldn't afford to isolate his coalition. Trump would have smeared him in ways you couldn't even imagine. Third, his coalition was quite narrow—he lost the primary and couldn't lock down the Democratic base. Fourth, Donald Trump tapped into something unsettling but profound; it would've happened anyway. Fifth... winning is important, but so is actually being able to make the change you promise. We are now, it seems, collectively of a "post-policy mindset" that has no way of ending well. Hillary was disconnected from the popular wave, sure, but she actually presented incremental changes that might have had a chance of getting implemented in a system that really is only able to work incrementally. That will matter again if the thin veneer of Trump's "competence" ever collapses (this will mostly come down to Paul Ryan).

So... I'm not sold on the Bernie thing. Trump was a good fit for the American electorate. It's unfortunate, but seems to be the reality. I will never, ever, ever put this on Hillary.
100  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump supporters: Was this a F you to minorities or something else? on: November 09, 2016, 04:13:50 am
Who cares.
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