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76  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 17, 2012, 09:32:35 am
Obama, convincingly. Romney did about the same as last time, but it wasn't enough to win at all.

That Libya exchange is going to go up there with Ford in 1976 and Dukakis in 1988 - it's a defining moment of the election.

How can Obama win while, as you say, making a historic "election defining" gaff ? ? ?
77  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Can Mitt Romney recover? on: October 17, 2012, 09:28:12 am
I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...].  

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.    

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:


OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       



OH is not in Mitt's column.  If it ever is, VA will already be there.  Are you worried about Obama winning with 47% there because of Goode?
Right, I think OH will move into Mitt's column shortly, he finally has traction and will continue to move that state hi way. 

I think VA will probably be there for Mitt, but I see a plausible scenario where he loses close because Obama has a large immovable constituency for him there and that could be enough to build a firewall (win by a sliver).  Obama could lose ground everywhere and gain ground in VA if he focused his efforts theoretically, so I keep that possibility open. 

 
78  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: The Debate Bounce on: October 17, 2012, 09:15:18 am

Romney might stop gaining at 50-51
Obama might gain a point or two off his 45-46
OR
Romney hits 52+ territory.

0 to -2.
79  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is it possible to be "cool" and support Mitt Romney? on: October 17, 2012, 09:10:35 am
Yes.  In fact the types that support Obama/dems are increasingly uncool every year.  I coach a High School sports team and 9 of the 10 coolest kids are Romney supporters.  The Obama kid only is cool because he is funny and good at making fun of himself like a clown.  It's hard to like someone who's super serious about supporting BO because typically they have no logical basis to do so.     

The serious case for Obama is that his government spending/hiring is the only thing keeping unemployment out of the teens and GDP growth positive right now.  Unfortunately for him, it's a challenging and very hypothetical case to make.  Hence the repeated warnings about going back to Bush policies. 
That is somewhat logical, but
1) Most people aren't that coherent in forming a rational for BO.  
2) Under basic examination that line breaks down and becomes extremely hard to defend, at which point illogical things inevitably come out in an emotional torrent.  

It's hard to like someone who's super serious about supporting BO because typically they have no logical basis to do so.    

Unless they're not rich.
 
I'm not sure what your point is.  "Only rich people are Republicans?"  
Dems are the party of the super rich and powerful and they try to "buy" the cheapest/easiest votes they can in order to keep/use power to preserve/improve their power structure.  
That being the case, I can't make out your point.    
80  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Can Mitt Romney recover? on: October 17, 2012, 08:51:42 am
I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...].  

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.    

Guys, Romney better keep gaining, because he hasn't gained enough yet - Obama's still at a 277 victory:


OH, WI, IA, NV are basically within a point.  Romney's campaign is basically just starting in WI and (I believe NV).  The traction Romney has finally picked up in OH points to him probably winning there.  I can see VA possibly holding close as an Obama firewall.  So Romney is probably at 266 with 25 in play.  Boy, we go through all this and we will probably just end up with a Bush map (maybe flipping 1 or 2 states).  Although it wouldn't be surprising for Mitt to win those 25 in play (if he wins by 4 nationally), giving him 301.       

81  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: In an electoral tie with a Democratic sentate on: October 17, 2012, 08:30:58 am
I can see some 'For the Good of America and Our National Security' calls for the Senate to elect Ryan -- especially if Romney wins the PV

I wouldn't count on it.  If there is a 269-269, we will most assuredly have a Romney/Biden administration.  Dems won't back down, and hey, why should they?

it may only take 1 or 2 defectors.

Yeah, and imagine yourself in Joe Manchin's shoes in this scenario, especially if Romney wins the popular vote. 

If Biden was effectively frozen out of the Romney administration, I wonder who Romney would delegate all the usual veep business to. One of the cabinet members? Or would he appoint someone (possibly keeping Ryan on) to be a "special adviser" to the president, basically acting as an unofficial VP.

If 269-269 ever happens, the electoral college will likely be removed soon thereafter.

This.

That would be an interesting/weird role for Ryan. 

Scenarios:
Ryan keeps his house seat... would they make him speaker?

If Biden is considered "disabled" could he be removed from office ? 

A lame duck Senate could vote Biden in as VP and then the new Republican majority could vote on impeachment to remove him from office. 
82  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Can Mitt Romney recover? on: October 17, 2012, 08:04:53 am
I wouldn't be surprised if Romney made gains from this.  When it came down to all of the specific questions on CNN and such, they all tended to favour Romney [who would run the economy better, etc...]. 

This.  Like Biden, Obama can claim "victory" as he loses votes across the country.  Alienating woman and losing every important issues is a damning cocktail.  Also, having no plan, vision, or reason to reelect you is a major problem.     
83  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Is it possible to be "cool" and support Mitt Romney? on: October 17, 2012, 08:00:23 am
Yes.  In fact the types that support Obama/dems are increasingly uncool every year.  I coach a High School sports team and 9 of the 10 coolest kids are Romney supporters.  The Obama kid only is cool because he is funny and good at making fun of himself like a clown.  It's hard to like someone who's super serious about supporting BO because typically they have no logical basis to do so.     
84  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 17, 2012, 07:50:55 am
CNN and CBS polling show Obama "won" the debate (largely because he beat expectations), but Romney won on every major issue.  I'll buy that.  As things go forward you can use substance wins much more than "hey, I beat expectations!"
85  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: DEVELOPING: Candy Crowley admits Romney was correct on Libya on: October 17, 2012, 12:21:46 am
I think the story will the GOP whining about the moderator... and even if the specific story gets a lot of exposure - they play the video of Obama's speech, which wraps Benghazi VERY clearly into the 9/11 discussion.

There was no epic lie.
than 14 days completely contradicting your narrative,  Joe Biden's comments last week.  You lose three ways and you aren't even making an argument 1 way effectively. 
86  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: DEVELOPING: Candy Crowley admits Romney was correct on Libya on: October 17, 2012, 12:11:12 am
You think arguing about the placement of a phrase in a statement... is going to be the story tomorrow?

Ah, ha.

Have you been awake the last month?  Romney went from 5 down to 5 up and this story has been going the entire time.  Add an epic lie by the president in front of a national audience and you think it will go away???  why would it go away?
87  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: DEVELOPING: Candy Crowley admits Romney was correct on Libya on: October 17, 2012, 12:06:11 am
She walked back her mess up short of admitting she was wrong.  For her, that quickly, is basically admitting wrongdoing though.  This Obama screw up will dominate the news the next few days.  Even if he said Bengazi was a organized terror attack on 9.12, he and his administration than lied for the next 14 days which is worse than not saying it on 9.12 in some ways.    

I think in the context, where Rice and the Press Secretary said it was a (nonexistent) mob, after Obama's comment, it clearly wasn't regarded as an "act of terror," and certainly not a terrorist attack.

That said, I think someone screwed up, and I can't for the life of me figure out why they kept the story going for two weeks, why Biden gave his statement in his debate and why Obama just didn't use a Bay of Pigs line (and this was no where nearly as serious as the Bay of Pigs).

exactly, even their cover up/ screw up is epically bad. 
88  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 11:42:24 pm
It won't stop Obama's slide.  If he had actually outlined policy, I think he would have won.

Didn't the slide already stop?
Not really, the polling showing Romney up 49-45 and 50-46 mostly came out the last two days. 
89  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 11:20:44 pm
Candy Crowley basically called Romney out as a liar in front of 60-65 million people on the Libya comments...it's laughable that anyone can call that a win for Romney...there is no way the Republicans can spin that

Apparently Crowley is admitting she was wrong because well she obviously was. 

Romney tried to imply Obama didn't call the attack an act of terrorism. Obama did in fact do sototally false and made up; the administration didn't, however, call it an attack from a terrorist organization until it knew for sure that it was. Romney was arguing stupid semantics you're trying to but failing, he wasn't "right" about anything. everything he said was trueWhat he attacked Obama for in that moment was wrong. Full stop.nothing was wrong and you can't find anything
Obama didn't call it an act of terrorism.


Crowley is walking back hard... oops!!  
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=athcyCTnTTs
90  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:58:31 pm
Candy Crowley basically called Romney out as a liar in front of 60-65 million people on the Libya comments...it's laughable that anyone can call that a win for Romney...there is no way the Republicans can spin that
Apparently Crowley is admitting she was wrong because well she obviously was. 
91  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:50:49 pm
Bush didn't say the Dutch hit us on 9-11(2001) because we characterized Santa Claus in an offensive way for two weeks after the attacks.  The presidential lie about the rose garden press conference will dominate the news for the next few days.  I mean he lied to the American people for two weeks and than he still can't get it straight a month later, than he tells an insane lie in a presidential debate to top it off.  Foreign policy credibility in free fall.     

The desperation is palpable. You really are living in your own world. Did you even watch the debate.

Huh I said I watched the 2nd half and listened to the first half in the car.  Who's desperate? My guy is winning and your guy is digging himself into big holes everyday.  Try making a better post next time.  
92  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:44:17 pm
Thanks to Libya, an Obama landslide.

If the Libya exchange hadn't happened, it would have been a pretty solid Obama win. Not a blowout though.

What?Huh?  Obama is getting crushed on Libya and his ridiculous lie tonight is going to keep the issue in the spotlight.  Romney missed a kill shot because he was a little stunned by the lie and Crawly jumped in to save Barrack, but Obama will lose huge on that exchange.  

I listened to the first half in the car, so I don't have a visual feel.  Romney dominated on substance, Obama did a little better than last time, but still has no answer on the most important issues.  Dems will claim victory Romney will increase his gains in the polls.  Obama failed to defend himself or give a reason to reelect him.  

Disagree emphatically.  He took Libya off the table for good and made Romney look small and partisan in the process.  Short of CIA leaks implicating Obama in something, Libya as an issue is over.

That Libya is even a political issue amazes me.  Can you imagine if Tom Daschle had blamed the Bush administration and Republicans for letting 9/11 happen on national TV on the day of the attacks?  It would have been unthinkable.

Bush didn't say the Dutch hit us on 9-11(2001) because we characterized Santa Claus in an offensive way for two weeks after the attacks.  The presidential lie about the rose garden press conference will dominate the news for the next few days.  I mean he lied to the American people for two weeks and than he still can't get it straight a month later, than he tells an insane lie in a presidential debate to top it off.  Foreign policy credibility in free fall.     
93  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Pew poll shows Biden lost the debate on: October 16, 2012, 10:37:43 pm
No one cares who won the VP debate.
Nobody votes for President because of who the Vice President is.
Nobody votes for President because of who the Vice President is.
Tell that to the people who specifically voted against Sarah Palin and the septuagenarian with remissive cancer that she shared a ticket with.

Exactly, people don't vote FOR the VP (especially based on the debate), but they will vote against them.  Which is why Biden did so much damage and clearly lost the debate. 
94  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Who won the debate? on: October 16, 2012, 10:28:06 pm
Thanks to Libya, an Obama landslide.

If the Libya exchange hadn't happened, it would have been a pretty solid Obama win. Not a blowout though.

What?Huh?  Obama is getting crushed on Libya and his ridiculous lie tonight is going to keep the issue in the spotlight.  Romney missed a kill shot because he was a little stunned by the lie and Crawly jumped in to save Barrack, but Obama will lose huge on that exchange.  

I listened to the first half in the car, so I don't have a visual feel.  Romney dominated on substance, Obama did a little better than last time, but still has no answer on the most important issues.  Dems will claim victory Romney will increase his gains in the polls.  Obama failed to defend himself or give a reason to reelect him.  
95  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Predict your home county on: October 16, 2012, 02:44:50 pm
Washington County, WI
Romney: 70
Obama : 29

Waukesha County, WI
Romney: 68
Obama : 31

That's probably the floor for Romney, he may well do 5 points better in each. 
96  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Obama could become the first completely minority president on: October 16, 2012, 02:32:37 pm
He also would have the least number or least diverse combination of 'American Nations' in the Modern Era.


Dems look to win Yankeedom and (Yankeedom's off spring) the Left coast.  1 state of El Norte (New Mexico).   So, That's 1of9 nations or 2of10 depending on how you look at it. 
97  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: paul ryan lost the debate on: October 16, 2012, 02:21:47 pm
Biden's debate performance may have slow down the  Romney momentum. I noticed Romney's leads have disappeared.
LOL!!!!!  LOL!!!!  LOL!!!! LOL!!!! LOL!!! LOL!!!
98  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Romney best path through Obama firewall? on: October 16, 2012, 02:15:19 pm
Each requires a different strategy to win, Romney will probably win 2 of 3, if he only wins 1 of 3 it's probably Ohio. 
99  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: paul ryan lost the debate on: October 14, 2012, 11:29:30 pm
Looks like Biden's angry, aggressive, disrespectful buffoon act didn't play well with nonpartisans:

More polling data the Romney Ryan ticket was the real winner in the VP Debate.
Survey USA results:
 Tampa/St. Pete… Ryan wins debate 42-38
       Change vote? yes: 73% to Romney 27% to Obama!

In New York area, Biden wins debate 54-30
       But vote switchers still went 54%-38% in favor of Romney…

CA Biden wins debate  48% to 41%
but vote switchers favor Romney  59% to 40%
http://www.surveyusa.com/

doubt we will see any more of the lefties claiming Biden won after this.   
100  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: paul ryan lost the debate on: October 13, 2012, 02:23:43 am
It is ridiculous how Ryan is soooo concerned over the national debt these days when he voted for the Iraq War which was financed off-budget, both rounds of Bush tax cuts and a Medicare Part D drug benefit which the Bush Administration lied about the true costs of.  We HAD a surplus when Clinton left office in 2000.  And what did we have when Bush left office after 2008?

It was lovely to see Biden point that out that Ryan criticizes Obama's stimulus plan when he himself sought funding from that stimulus for his district because "it will create growth and jobs." (Ryan's words).  I suppose this behavior should not be surprising from someone whose convention speech was filled with lies.


You know this reminds me...

I find it extremely annoying when the post debate commentary shifts from 'lets discuss what happened in the debate' with 'lets continue the debate on this program/thread/newspaper/etc.' All of the networks do it.

Look I'm okay with "so and so should have said blah or shouldn't have said blah' because its still about the debate performance, but starting up right where the 2 just left off is absolutely annoying.

Does that bother anybody on here as well? I figured others on here hate that as well because after a debate I don't want to hear more talking pts(that I've already heard) I want to hear exclusively analysis about how the debate affected the race and what ways and what transpired, etc.

It's easy to see why you'd rather not discuss Paul Ryan's voting record, given how it contradicts his current rhetoric.  His explanation is that he was "miserable during the last [GOP] majority."  rotfl, cry me a river.  The Right tries to present him as some principled fiscal conservative.  Where was the courage of his convictions back then?  Can you tell us?

Ryan looked like a charlatan in that debate trying to defend a no specifics, faith-based tax policy.  Especially when he said he wanted to have a "big bipartisan agreement" and "we want to work with Congress on how best to achieve this."  When, exactly, has Paul Ryan been this big bipartisan deal maker in Congress?  Was it his budget which ignored the Supercommittee's mandated cuts to defense spending and pushed all the cuts onto the discretionary side?  How bipartisan.

dude, Biden lost, get over it.  Than you think you can make a wonk like Ryan wrong about stuff he's right about, than you pick a fight with wonkish.  What are you trying to prove?
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