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October 25, 2014, 02:04:32 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Soouth Florida to become its own state? on: October 24, 2014, 09:35:10 pm
I'm not sure if this has been discussed yet, but apparently the city of Miami passed a resolution that favors the secession of South Florida.

South Miami. Difference of about 407,845 people. That said, I'm in full support of this - anything that both makes the University of South Florida's name actually make sense (it'd be the flagship public university of the State of South Florida) and puts my education under the control of someone other than whoever the hell The Villages sends to the state legislature is alright with me.

Likewise, Pasco needs to stay with Hillsborough and Pinellas. Its not as if once you cross the county line you're in Alabama.
The counties I'm unsure where to place are Hernando, Lake and Volusia.

Pasco (and Hernando, as you mentioned) are in a gray area. I'd draw the line along the northern border of Pinellas and Hillsborough going along a pretty fuzzy line (that covers much of Pasco & Hernando). Most of Lake and southern Volusia would also be in that area. Volusia on the whole I'd say would go in North Florida, if only for the whole Dale Earnhardt NASCAR Daytona thing.

Indian River, Brevard, and Polk Counties are not South Florida. What a random map.

Polk is iffy, but Brevard probably goes in the new Southern Florida state we're making here - not exactly a place I'd expect to see boiled peanuts by the roadside. Brevard was largely grown and shaped by the space race of the 60s, after all. Indian River, meanwhile, is New New Jersey (in fairness, Fellsmere isn't, but the county's coast-dominated).

Orlando has more in common with North Florida than South Florida; that applies to pretty much everywhere in the state, to be fair. I'd just break apart everything in the Miami orbit, so everywhere that supports Miami over any other Florida team. That would mean West Palm Beach and down. No reason to stick Tampa and Orlando in a Miami-based state.

Just Broward, Dade, PB and maybe Monroe? Nah... Orange/Osceola is definitely not part of N. Florida. Though the North Orlando metro definitely is. Even East Orlando even feels like S. Florida. Its a looong story how I got to know the area. You could probably take in Tampa without having to take in Pasco, I think. There's NPR, but that's the only metro feeling place in Pasco.

Orlando is my blind spot; I admit don't know that area very well.  However, I do know the Tampa suburbs, Clearwater and to a lesser degree St. Pete and they are MUCH more culturally similar to North Florida than South Florida. I know it doesn't make a very pretty map, but unless there's some measure I'm missing I don't see the justification for grouping Miami with pretty much anywhere else in the state but West Palm Beach.

Orlando, at this point, certainly isn't the south. Maybe a few decades ago, but not now. As for the Bay area, we are home to the largest rebel flag in the world, admittedly, but the area is a better example of a melting pot of both cultures than probably any other in Florida. I'd be hard-pressed to call the area Southern, especially St. Pete.

People need to understand that central Florida--the I-4 corridor and adjacent counties at least--are different from both north and south Florida. Culturally, demographically, and politically.

And of course this is the objectively correct answer.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK-Hellenthal (R): Begich +10 on: October 24, 2014, 05:10:57 pm
lol, what

What is this pollster's track record? I'm getting reminders of that "Democratic pollster" showing Romney ahead by 20 points in Florida.

The difference between this and other Alaska polls is that it's 400 live interviews and 80% of those are cell phones, which is probably fair - 49% of Alaskans rely exclusively on their cell phones, after all.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / AK-Hellenthal (R): Begich +10 on: October 24, 2014, 04:58:23 pm
Dominating.

Begich 49, Sullivan 39.
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2014 General Election - President and Regional Senators on: October 24, 2014, 06:34:04 am
President and Vice President
[1]Lumine von Reuental/SJoyceFla
[2]Marokai Blue/Antonio V
[3]Poirot/Shua

IDS Senate
[1]North Carolina Yankee
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 1: Non controversial Act on: October 23, 2014, 08:43:06 pm
Define littering, tree, yard, and newly constructed.

Yeah, I'll second this request - I'm imagining a situation with a house that has a fairly small yard where two full-size oaks would just look ridiculous.

Perhaps a trees per square foot requirement would be more reasonable?
6  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 1: A Negative War on Poverty Act on: October 23, 2014, 08:39:23 pm
I guess I can support this - I question what regional welfare is supposed to be covering with the expansive federal program as it is already.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Gov, St. Pete Polls: Scott in the lead on: October 23, 2014, 08:37:04 pm
Lacks cell phones, but probably a fair assessment.

How so? A cellphoneless poll seems somewhat untrustworthy.

It's a problem that it excludes cell phones, but the rest of the numbers and samples seem fair and are what I expect of the race at this time (that time?)
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 22, 2014, 04:07:54 pm
Crist and Scott on the execution postponement

If gubernatorial debates were as widely watched as presidential debates, there's absolutely no way Rick Scott would still be in this race. What a brutal exchange.

Man, the criminal is really awkward during debates. I watched the last one, and I thought maybe it was just because he was unnerved from the fan debacle, but it seems to be par for the course.

Why is Scott constantly smiling while Crist is talking about executions? What a jerk.

Not a jerk, just absolutely clueless - rumor has it that he only learned after taking office that he actually had to physically sign death warrants.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac: Ties in both FL and CT on: October 22, 2014, 05:24:55 am
Crist is winning women by 6%, indies by 3%, and Crist's favorabilities (42/47) are marginally better than Scott's (40/48) as well.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 21, 2014, 11:09:47 pm
I watched some of that debate.  Rick Scott embarrassed himself.  How did this clueless boob become governor of Florida?  

$75.1 million of his personal fortune.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 21, 2014, 08:48:25 pm
Winner of tonight's debate was undoubtably George Sheldon. Most notable moment was Scott throwing Bondi under the bus over rescheduling an execution to accommodate a fundraiser.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 21, 2014, 05:23:47 pm
Right now, with a million votes in, the R-to-D margin is 63,000 votes closer than it was in 2010 - the change in partisan early/absentee margins is equivalent to Scott's entire margin of victory.
Good news?

Very good news!

Yep, at one million votes early/absentee in 2010, the GOP advantage was +18.5 and now it's +13. We won day one of early voting by 2.4% this year, after losing it by 11.6% in 2010. We also matched 82.6% of our day one early votes from 2010 despite only 35 counties voting, compared to the GOP only matching 59%. We beat our 2010 vote number in 31/35 counties and improved as a share of the electorate in 23/35. We're obviously not out of the woods yet, not with Scott spending millions more, but we're in a much better place than in 2010, and we only need to do 61,000 votes better.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 21, 2014, 05:00:40 pm
Right now, with a million votes in, the R-to-D margin is 63,000 votes closer than it was in 2010 - the change in partisan early/absentee margins is equivalent to Scott's entire margin of victory.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-St. Pete Polls: Crist up 2 in post-fangate poll on: October 21, 2014, 07:48:35 am
I love how we define "winning" the debate as who looked good or made comments about a fan. Is this what it's come to? Aren't we supposed to be discussing the issues facing the state of FL for the next four years? My god.

Quote from: Charlie Crist
Are we really going to debate about a fan? Or are we going to talk about education, and the environment and the future of our state. I mean, really.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Predict Margin (%) for FL-Gov on: October 21, 2014, 12:40:08 am
Crist: 48%
Scott: 47%
Wyllie: 4%
Others: 1%
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: The Statewide Office Newspaper Endorsements Thread on: October 19, 2014, 07:38:47 am
Crist just picked up the endorsement of the Palm Beach Post as well, leaving the Times-Union and the Democrat as the only major papers not yet to endorse. If the only newspaper Scott can get is the Trib, then Crist is in a really good spot (the Trib is a small, reactionary paper that endorses whoever the Times does not endorse in the hopes of boosting its market share).
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: What Network will you watch Election Night? on: October 18, 2014, 11:27:30 am
Local news (quasi-local - Bay News 9).
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How is your opinion of Charlie Crist affected by his need for fan for his legs? on: October 18, 2014, 07:47:45 am
If you donate $5 the Crist campaign will send you your own fan.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / FL-St. Pete Polls: Crist up 2 in post-fangate poll on: October 17, 2014, 10:11:47 pm
Crist up 45-43, three points better than the St. Pete Polls poll before this one. A plurality of voters think Crist won the debate (38-25), and that the delay because of the fan hurt Scott (41-20). 52% said they watched the debate. Wyllie's at 8%.

The poll samples Republicans by about 3% more than Democrats, and is only 13% black and 8% Hispanic. It also includes breakdowns by media market, which is cool - Charlie leads in Tally, Tampa, West Palm & Miami.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 17, 2014, 09:22:59 pm
With the Herald today, that brings the Crist campaign up to three major papers (Herald, Times, and Sun-Sentinel). Obama only got the Times and Herald.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 17, 2014, 03:46:18 pm
I don't understand why people keep saying "oh it was 90 crist needed that fan " like every building here is air conditioned and it can get very hot under stage lights but why do they keep saying it was 90?

IIRC the candidates were doing all their prep in RVs outside and would be walking right in to debate from outside.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How is your opinion of Charlie Crist affected by his need for fan for his legs? on: October 17, 2014, 03:45:15 pm
I think a more effective (but pretty costly) ad would be to air a commercial with nothing but a fan whirring for however long Scott refused to debate and then say 'this is how long Rick Scott waited to debate because of a fan.

That'd run well over the average length of a commercial break.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 17, 2014, 01:34:51 pm
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 16, 2014, 11:05:35 pm
When I saw the fan incident first on Google News at minimum 12 hours after the conclusion of the debate I could not help but think of four years earlier involving another debate between candidates for Florida governor with Alex Sink and two of her campaign aides. Rick Scott wins in 2010 by 60000 votes; a wider margin. Maybe I think elections are closer than they actually are but 60000 votes is a solid difference between two candidates. A state voting for a presidential candidate who represents the party opposite of the one that holds the state house in the state is not unusual. As a matter of fact a sign of a rejection by the Florida electorate of Rick Scott would be clear had the state gone for Mitt Romney. Rick Scott may well be Florida governor twice because he follows the rules.

See, the difference is that with the Sink thing it was clear to the average voter that Sink was cheating - the debate rules said she couldn't use a cell phone, and yet she used a cell phone to receive info on how to debate. Here, Scott's throwing a tantrum because Crist has a fan on a day when it's 90 degrees outside. General consensus is that this helps Crist - he's probably up 2 or 3 today.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 16, 2014, 09:18:20 pm
Pete Begala on the race.

Quote
No matter. Crist will become governor again, and Rick Scott will slink back under the rock from whence he emerged. But even there, in the gritty grime of the fetid Florida sand, he will be recognized and remembered as the guy who blew it because of a fan.
When Dr. Thompson removed himself from this Earth he had his ashes shot out of a cannon. A spectacular explosion of fireworks scattered Hunter's earthly remains over Colorado. Rick Scott's political demise was considerably less spectacular; the remains of his career as a politician were blown all across Florida by a one-foot-wide electric fan.
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