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February 27, 2017, 08:00:53 pm
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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What's your accent? on: February 24, 2017, 04:11:39 pm
Top three cities are Lexington (KY), Tally, and Jacksonville, which makes sense to me. My family's from Kentucky, so Lexington makes sense, and while most of the South is red, a couple answers (sunshower, panther) tagged me as a Floridian. Least similar were Buffalo, Milwaukee, and Providence.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: College Students Are Ridiculously Infuriating Safe-Space/Mega-thread on: February 09, 2017, 01:39:16 pm
At what point does the FBI step in and stop this madness? It is descending into domestic terrorism.
Some college students get mean emails and you think it's a federal crime? People who can't cope with a few mean words without demanding a safe space are so ridiculous. I'm sorry that College Republicans are such snowflakes and get triggered so easily, but they're gonna have to learn to deal with the real world.

How are Republicans snowflakes?  They aren't the ones being coddled and protected from other people's views.
Your buddy here thinks people getting mean emails is somehow "domestic terrorism."

More broadly, conservatives have established a bizarre conception of Schrödinger's college student, somehow both a weak snowflake prone to retreating into safe spaces at the slightest provocation and a dangerous domestic terrorist. I think it's funny.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: College Students Are Ridiculously Infuriating Safe-Space/Mega-thread on: February 09, 2017, 11:59:55 am
At what point does the FBI step in and stop this madness? It is descending into domestic terrorism.
Some college students get mean emails and you think it's a federal crime? People who can't cope with a few mean words without demanding a safe space are so ridiculous. I'm sorry that College Republicans are such snowflakes and get triggered so easily, but they're gonna have to learn to deal with the real world.
4  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of McDonald's on: February 09, 2017, 09:28:55 am
Honestly cannot understand going to McDonald's for breakfast when Chick-Fil-A exists.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Lief Reservoir of Simple Truths and Smart One-Liners on: February 09, 2017, 08:46:23 am
Not exactly a simple truth, but I thought this was revealing

I'm sure that a group this big includes good and bad people, just like rich people.  But, while I know plenty of middle and upper class people, I don't think I know any poor people, so I can't really answer.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NRCC Target Seats on: February 09, 2017, 12:08:45 am
State Sen. David Simmons, who represents much of the area and is termed out next year,is interested,
He is termed out in 2020, but more importantly, he wants to be a lawyer. He's supposedly leaning towards the AG race, but I wouldn't be surprised if he returns to private practice. "I want to be AG, but I'm also thinking about Congress or staying in the private sector" is not the statement of somebody who wants to run for Congress.

as is a younger Puerto Rican State Rep.
Cortes is 15 years older than Murphy. His connections to the Puerto Rican community are noteworthy, but ultimately this is a seat Clinton won by 7 points with a Democratic candidate who managed to upset a heavily entrenched Republican incumbent with more money than anyone could need. Murphy's formidable in her own right, and unless the GOP is able to draw a bigger name than Bob Cortes I doubt she'll be in serious trouble.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Florida results on: February 08, 2017, 11:00:29 pm
and in the area going from Fort Myers to Sarasota in FL SW Coast( Lee, Charlotte, Sarasota, Manatee)...
I'm pulling this out because there was not a substantial difference in the SWFL vote this cycle. Trump's total out of those areas was only around 40k over Romney's. They turned out in massive numbers for the GOP nominee, but they always do that.

-Except Donald Trump improved over Romney in the rural panhandle. I was kind of surprised by that myself.
Marginally, and by relatively unimportant numbers (in real numbers he got maybe 40k more votes). Clinton did better in Duval than any Dem since '76, which is what really matters in the region. I-10 did its job—the loss came from other parts of the state.

Seems like Trump did a lot better than Romney among "ethnic" whites (e.g., Italians, Eastern Euro, Catholics).
There is very little "ethnic" identity that exists among Floridians. This is not a useful way to distinguish among different groups of voters.

in the days just prior Election, I read some pieces even talking about how Dems were going to flip historically Republican Polk County in I-4, which actually Trump ended up winning by a double margin respect to Romney's
Talk about Clinton winning Imperial Polk was based largely on the early vote, all of which pointed to a Clinton win statewide. She had a 10-point edge in Hillsborough, the lead in Duval, and had banked 100K out of Orange and 200K out of both Broward and Dade. All the signs out of early voting suggested she'd win, and Trump was only able to win through a massive turnout on Election Day.

I was surprised to see that demographically these aren't counties overwhelmingly white, so I'm even more upset that Trump gained there the votes he needed to win Florida...what did happen there?
The loss happened specifically in suburban/exurban I-4—Schale did the numbers, and by pulling out the big urban counties in I-4 (Hills/Pinellas in the Bay, Orange/Osceola/Seminole in Orlando) Trump improved on Romney by around 230K there. Those counties are all less diverse than the state, and almost all had turnout well above 2012 levels. I'll put it up to increased turnout among infrequent white voters that wouldn't be captured by turnout models.

Florida's 2016 results should remind everyone that Florida is still a southern state in many ways. At some point the Democrats will max out of Hispanic and college-educated areas. Pinellas county is a good example of a place where conventional wisdom would've said Clinton would win cuz it was suburban/urban, but in reality it's very working class.
I wouldn't describe Pinellas as "very working class." It's just a county that's always been close in both party registration and election results—it was the first place Republicans made significant victories in the state following Reconstruction. Save for Gore in 2000 (and that's debatable) it's gone with the statewide winner in every Presidential election since 1980. As for culture, it's more Midwestern than Southern.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NRCC Target Seats on: February 08, 2017, 08:55:36 pm
FL-07 and FL-13 aren't happening. Maybe the NRCC throws a little money there, but the RPOF is unlikely to be interested in seriously pursuing those seats. Every dollar of state money that goes there is money that doesn't go to the Senate race (a chance to take out the only statewide D) and the governor's race, as well as holding the row offices and defending Curbelo/IRL. It's also a pretty tough year for the GOP in the State Senate, as even-numbered seats are on the ballot and that class includes a number of competitive seats, including SD-08 in Gainesville, SD-18 in Tampa, and SD-36 and SD-40 in Miami. There's too much to defend and too many better targets to make a serious effort at picking off Dem incumbents in Dem seats.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread on: February 08, 2017, 04:13:53 pm
I would say I hope we nominate literally anybody else, but I remembered that Pritzker is probably running. Ugh.
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who would you vote for in the first round of the French presidential election? on: February 08, 2017, 11:42:34 am
Why would anyone vote for Hamon? Do you want Le Pen or Fillon to win?
Is your assumption here that Macron would do better in a runoff than Hamon? Because that seems ill-founded.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1972 Democratic National Convention Third Ballot on: February 08, 2017, 11:40:41 am
McGovern, then Muskie, then 3rd party.
12  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Will you visit the Obama Presidential Library? on: February 07, 2017, 02:39:09 pm
It's a 10 minute walk from where I live now, so i figure I'll go some time.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Have you heard of the preceding politician? on: February 06, 2017, 10:02:26 am
Of course—he's a Cook County Democrat.

Kurt Summers
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Did Barack Hussein Obama deserve his Nobel? on: February 06, 2017, 08:23:29 am
I love that eharding uses "Barack HUSSEIN Obama" like a freerepublic poster who's been in a coma since 2009.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Senators that don't deserve to be in the Senate? on: February 06, 2017, 12:40:27 am
Besides Marco Rubio.
I saw the thread title and immediately thought of Lil Marco. Glad to see he was in the OP (though, in all fairness, Patrick Murphy would probably also be on this list had he won).
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you vote on Trump's cabinet appointees? on: February 06, 2017, 12:38:20 am
State: Rex Tillerson - NAY
Defense: James Mattis - NAY
Treasury: Steven Mnuchin - NAY
Justice: Jeff Sessions - NAY
Interior: Ryan Zinke - NAY
Agriculture: Sonny Perdue - NAY
Commerce: Wilbur Ross - NAY
Labor: Andrew Puzder - NAY
HHS: Tom Price - NAY
HUD: Ben Carson - NAY
Transportation: Elaine Chao - NAY
Energy: Rick Perry - NAY
Education: Betsy DeVos - NAY
Veterans: David Shulkin - NAY
Homeland Security: John Kelly - NAY

UN Ambassador: Nikki Haley - NAY
CIA Director: Mike Pompeo - NAY
17  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Poll on the meaning of life on: February 05, 2017, 02:06:09 pm
Option #10 is closest to my personal views.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will the Super Bowl halftime show be anti-Trump? on: February 05, 2017, 11:37:50 am
If Budweiser, of all companies, will run an anti-Trump ad during the Super Bowl, then I don't see why Lady Gaga (!) won't.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Space Age Swampland: A Florida Election Series (1966 primaries) on: February 04, 2017, 10:08:44 pm
His liberal views on civil rights have accelerated a rift in the party, with the segregationist wing led by former Jacksonville Mayor W. Haydon Burns resisting High in the legislature at every turn. High started off his term with a massive PR win, standing at a podium flanked by Walt and Roy Disney to announce Florida as the site of the new East Coast Disneyland. In other minor successes, High presided over the inaugural season of Florida’s first football team, the AFL’s Miami Dolphins, and the opening of Florida International University. Apart from those, however, he has only managed to pass a bill to expand the state park system, with the rest stymied by legislative opposition. A court-ordered remapping to bring the state in line with the demands of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, however, has threatened to break the power of the rural North Florida legislators known as the Pork Choppers, who view Burns' candidacy as their last shot at maintaining power in the party.

Threatened by the influx of retirees and immigrants with no ancestral loyalty to the Democratic Party, gubernatorial elections have been moved to off-years and governors are allowed to run for re-election. High has served only two years, and is now up for re-election. In what is largely a re-run of the primary, he faces Mayor Burns and State Senator Scott Kelly again, with Burns representing the conservative wing and Kelly a moderate concerned with preserving the party. Sam Foor, the publisher of the Porkchop News (a Tallahassee publication filled with the capital’s rumor and gossip), is running a semi-serious campaign.

On the Republican side, businessman Claude Kirk is running a fierce and spirited campaign, hoping to capitalize on the growing rift on the other side of the aisle while emphasizing his opposition to higher taxes. He faces Brevard County Commissioner Richard Muldrew, a former state legislator, in the Republican primary. The contest is less one of ideas and more one of character; the quiet, subdued Muldrew is the polar opposite of Kirk, an outspoken self-promoter the Miami Herald has already dubbed Claudius Maximus.

List of Governors of Florida:
#34: Doyle E. Carlton, Jr. (D-Wauchula, 1961-65)[/color=red]
#35: Robert King High (D-Miami, 1965-67)[/color=red]
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in New York City or East Tennessee? on: February 04, 2017, 09:30:16 pm
East Tennessee is prettier, and Knoxville’s enough of a city that I could live with it. I have a lot of family in east TN, and despite the political differences it’s people that I like and a culture that I appreciate. Plus, I could actually afford to live there.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever embodied your ethnic stereotype? on: February 04, 2017, 09:15:49 pm
Can't speak to ethnic stereotypes at all, but I got sweet tea at Chick-Fil-A today so I guess I'm embodying that Southern stereotype.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015-2020 on: February 04, 2017, 08:55:50 pm
The Incredible Flying Brick?
On a comprehensive platform of progressive reforms, including:
  • Abolishing gravity, effective immediately
  • Introducing piranha into the Trent
  • Developing the Stoke-on-Trent Civic Centre into an intergalactic space port
  • Promoting Pottermus Hippo to leader of the Stoke City Council
  • Fuelling all European trains with gravy
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Dutch election, March 15 2017 on: February 04, 2017, 08:44:20 pm
There are really only three options:
-Communist Front (PvdA, SP, GroenLinks, PvdD, DENK, Nieuwe Wegen)
-Fascist Alliance (VVD, PVV, CDA, ChristenUnie, SGP, 50Plus, VNL, FVD)
-D66
You've got to be trolling now, right? I hope you are. Otherwise I have no words.
lol, I just tried to sort them based on kingpoleon's theory to see what kind of bizarre party system it would create. I don't actually think CDA is a fascist party or whatever his idea is.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Dutch election, March 15 2017 on: February 04, 2017, 08:18:26 pm
There are really only three options:
-Communist Front (PvdA, SP, GroenLinks, PvdD, DENK, Nieuwe Wegen)
-Fascist Alliance (VVD, PVV, CDA, ChristenUnie, SGP, 50Plus, VNL, FVD)
-D66
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Dutch election, March 15 2017 on: February 04, 2017, 03:56:24 pm
Other (JEZUS LEEFT)

Were I actually Dutch I'd vote SP.
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