Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2015, 08:19:21 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 369
1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Florida vs Texas on: April 23, 2015, 03:44:08 pm
Florida (not great and I want to move out, but still better than Texas)
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1916 Conventions (The Hearse at Monticello) on: April 22, 2015, 07:11:39 pm
I'm on board with Rankin/Sinclair
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MO-GOV: Schweich dead from gunshot wound on: April 21, 2015, 06:19:01 am
There's a pretty good St. Louis Post-Dispatch writeup on how much of a barrier anti-Semitism is in Missouri.

The article concludes that rural [Republican] Missourians just aren't exposed enough to the religion, exacerbating the urban/rural tolerance divide. But a divide of this magnitude just stuns me. The stark difference between voters and Republican politicians (who are so obsessively pro-Israel, not even Democrats who actually ARE Jewish can compare) is so mind numbingly huge, I just don't see how the anti-semitism is so widespread as the article suggests. I think it's just a few high profile bad apples, or am I just naive?

Unless Republican politicians are not actually representing the views of their constituents, which just seems like the gimme answer to this.

Pro-Israel≠pro-Jewish. The Republicans are largely supportive of, say, Saudi Arabia's foreign policy in the region as well, but that doesn't mean Republicans are comfortable with electing Muslim politicians.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: MO-GOV: Schweich dead from gunshot wound on: April 20, 2015, 09:27:57 pm
This is definitely the low-point of my life, but I think kind of sort of agree with BigSkyBob? :/

I mean, the articles linked here seem to rather indicate that this guy had some issues that were triggered by a belief in a whisper campaign that probably wasn't really happening. Or did I miss something?
The whisper campaign has been confirmed by multiple Republicans who have quoted Hancock saying Schweich was Jewish.

A mention isn't a whisper campaign though. I read some of the articles linked here, there didn't seem to be much hard evidence for that going on.

I mean, is it even a thing in the current GOP? They love Israel!

There's a pretty good St. Louis Post-Dispatch writeup on how much of a barrier anti-Semitism is in Missouri.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: April 20, 2015, 06:17:49 pm
what about Ileana Ros-Lehtinen or one of the Diaz-Balarts? are they just house lifers? or would any of them ever seek higher office?

They are lifers and wouldn't make it out of the primary.

Maxwell's probably right - IRL, at least, is definitely a House lifer. Lincoln Diaz-Balert, I believe, was among those considered for the Senate seat when Mel Martinez resigned, and the Diaz-Balerts yanked their endorsements from Charlie Crist when he appointed George LeMieux instead, but neither has shown an interest in higher office apart from that.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: April 20, 2015, 01:53:49 pm
Patrick Murphy is possibly the luckiest man of the cycle.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: April 18, 2015, 09:18:47 pm
Guys, please don't act as if Murphy would beat CLC by 20 points and Grayson would lose by the same margin. CLC and Grayson are not to be underestimated and Murphy is not inevitable.

Obviously, we're still a purple state! It's just some of those out of staters that think that.

I will never underestimate either the tactical ability of the RPOF or the potential incompetence of the FDP.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Under Rick Scott, Florida officials can't use the term "climate change" on: April 18, 2015, 07:50:38 pm
Florida is going to be so screwed by climate change. The highest point in the entire state is 345 feet. There are places in California not even 345 feet horizontally from the ocean higher than that. Marin headlands near the Golden Gate is one such place.
Yeah cuz no country has ever figured out how to house millions below sea level despite the threat of powerful storms with 100mph winds that can last for days, creating immense tidal surges...before the advent of modern technology...nah, that's never happened. 

For the construction necessary for that to happen, you'd have to have some realization on the part of state government that such steps are necessary. This entire thread is about how that's not happening.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Mark B Graham 2016 on: April 17, 2015, 04:32:17 pm
Are you related to Bob?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: April 17, 2015, 02:11:56 pm
If FL Dems nominate Grayson, the party should probably just disband. Nothing of value would be lost. Nelson can run as an independent.
You'd be permanently conceding 10 house seats...

Even in the absence of a Democrat, FL-05 is not going to send a Republican to Congress.
11  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Southern Voting Booth - April 2015 Governor Election on: April 17, 2015, 10:03:57 am
[1] Flo
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: April 2015 At-large Senate Election on: April 17, 2015, 10:03:32 am
[1]Polnut
[2]Cris
[3]Blair
[4]NC Yankee
[5]Lief
[6]Poirot
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 2016 Florida senate race, democratic primary on: April 17, 2015, 07:25:13 am
Voting for Alan Grayson in the primary is EXACTLY the sort of thing the FDP would do. It'd be an encapsulation of everything wrong with the party: automatically jumping at the more well-known name like its a shiny thing, expecting to be saved by RPOF choices, and of course an overestimation of their support in competitive races.

A Grayson primary win followed a campaign where it looks like the Democrats might FINALLY WIN ONE ending in a close but definitive Republican victory in the general is both hilarious and inevitable.

Don't worry, the spoiled rich Republican kid is heavily favored.

I would expect the guy who beat Allen West and who got 60% in a fairly Republican district in 2014 to be favored over the loudmouthed jerk who's going through a really messy divorce (and didn't he accuse his wife of bigamy at some point?).

Dereich's analysis is correct, and yes, Grayson has accused his wife of bigamy, his political opponents of supporting the Taliban, etc, etc. The only explanation is that the FDP saw what fun the RPOF was having with Allen West and attempted to recreate their own version.
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 2016 Florida senate race, democratic primary on: April 16, 2015, 06:08:46 pm
I will be (actually, for the first time) voting for Patrick Murphy.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: April 16, 2015, 11:18:09 am
Quote from: Alan Grayson discussing running for Senate on Democracy Now
Iím giving it a lot of attention. The answer is probably yes but I havenít made up my mind yet once and for all. I hope to do that soon.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: judd gregg for vp on: April 15, 2015, 06:33:27 pm
The correct answer is 'eh'. Expressing any other opinion would require summoning up more emotion than Judd Gregg is capable of provoking.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: April 15, 2015, 05:35:19 pm
If Grayson believes a website poll on The Florida Squeeze is good evidence of primary support, Murphy may have an easier primary than I thought.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: FL-Gov: Rubio for governor in 2018? on: April 15, 2015, 07:35:45 am
So,
Rick Scott is running for senate in 2018, and we will have a messy republican primary for FL governor? Cheesy
I highly doubt Scott will run in 2018; Florida GOP politics are planned out, as SJoyce noted, and I just don't see how Scott running for Senate would fit in with those plans.

Who will the RPOF run for the 2018 seat if Scott doesn't? Assuming that Atwater & Putnam are going to bludgeon each other in the Gov primary - Rooney? Weatherford?

I don't know about Atwater, but I thought Putnam and Bondi were all-but-in (although they may not have the primary field to themselves).  I've heard Rooney is very interested in running for Senate, so he will probably run if he doesn't go for Rubio's open seat.  I could also see Vern Buchanan running (although he may be smart enough to realize Nelson would crush him if he made it past the primary).  If Dennis Ross is interested, he could also be a strong GE candidate although he might be vulnerable to a tea-party flavored candidate in the primary.  Given how Ron DeSantis has already consolidated a bunch of antiestablishment support (from both tea party and non-tea party groups), I suspect Clawson sits out 2016 which means he could potentially fill that ideological niche if he ran in 2018. 

Putnam's been all-but-in for Governor; he's not interested in the Senate. Bondi could be interesting, though I'm not sure how much she wants the job - she's sounded a few notes of antipathy towards the Senate when asked about it this cycle. Can't see Ross being a strong candidate - he's been fairly quiet in Congress, not much to run on. Someone like Rooney would be a more dynamic candidate. Also can't see Buchanan - his ethics issues should sink him. Then again, we elected Rick Scott.

On a different note, I know that Bob Buckhorn is all-but-in for Governor on the Democratic side (and seems like he could be a pretty solid candidate), but I was wondering if anyone else is expected to challenge him for the Democratic nomination (not that I have any objection to Buckhorn at this early date, just curious).

Possibly some South FL Dem seeking a bigger profile - Jack Seiler (mayor of Ft. Lauderdale) or somebody like that. No one who'll present a real threat to Buckhorn.
19  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Why not replace Medicare with Single Payer? on: April 15, 2015, 06:20:36 am
Repealing Medicare's age limits would be much better. In any case, the first priority should be quality of care, then cost afterwards.

How much would that cost?

Given that we spend $400B a year already just on bureaucracy, paperwork, and private insurance marketing...

Assuming that a new 'universal Medicare' program would replace all federal healthcare spending, the state portions of Medicaid, other state & local health programs, all health insurance for government employees, and all tax subsidies for health insurance, I believe you'd approach cost neutrality.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: April 14, 2015, 08:20:57 pm
At this point (disregarding CLC, whose backing seems thin), it looks like it'll be a battle between Jolly and DeSantis for the soul of the RPOF.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: FL-Gov: Rubio for governor in 2018? on: April 14, 2015, 05:21:46 pm
So,
Rick Scott is running for senate in 2018, and we will have a messy republican primary for FL governor? Cheesy
I highly doubt Scott will run in 2018; Florida GOP politics are planned out, as SJoyce noted, and I just don't see how Scott running for Senate would fit in with those plans.

Who will the RPOF run for the 2018 seat if Scott doesn't? Assuming that Atwater & Putnam are going to bludgeon each other in the Gov primary - Rooney? Weatherford?
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: April 14, 2015, 04:44:41 am
This race still Leans GOP, neither Larry Sabato or Stuart Rothenberg has taken out of that category. Pa is the tipping pt state.

If OC says this is Lean R, then this race must be Safe R.

In all seriousness, this is a Tossup, and the GOP primary could get nasty.

Is Atwater this cycle's Brian Schweitzer? Looked like he was going to run and suddenly backed out. Regardless, with him out, the GOP primary could get messy.

Nah, the RPOF's bench is much better and deeper than MT Dems - but yeah, this could be a very messy primary. Hadn't heard about Gaetz wanting to take a shot at it; he could probably get the 'Tally insider' crowd, but he's not that well-known in the rest of the state.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will Atlas ironically support? on: April 13, 2015, 07:15:46 pm
Bumping this, since everybody missed the correct answer: Lincoln Chafee
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: FL-Gov: Rubio for governor in 2018? on: April 13, 2015, 03:30:55 pm
Adam Putnam will be the Republican nominee for Governor of Florida in 2018.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio to announce presidential candidacy on Monday at 5:30pm Eastern on: April 13, 2015, 03:21:44 pm
Hahaha you will be seeing a ton more of him my friend :p

He will either be the 2016 nominee for the republicans or governor of florida in 2018. He's FAR FAR away from going anywhere Wink
Adam Putnam will be Governor in 2018, actually. The RPOF has already decided that.

Hahaha that's very very far in the future. Let's see who gets the nominee in 2016 before we worry about 2018 tho.
No, no, it's not too far in the future. In fact, it is already starting to play out.

Sanchez is right here - the RPOF thinks very far ahead, and the Tally crowd has basically already elected Putnam. Though that's been thrown into a bit of doubt as a result of Atwater's decision to not challenge Murphy, it's still the most likely scenario. The RPOF right now seems to be consumed by coup rumors over the Speaker of the House in 2021 - 2018's already all but settled.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 369


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines