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1  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Mideast Telegraph Poll: Special at-large Senate election on: October 30, 2014, 08:32:37 pm
Maxwell, probably.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: St. Pete Polls: Crist leads Rick Scott in Pinellas, his home county, 50% to 40% on: October 28, 2014, 02:19:05 pm
Take county polls with a big grain of salt. And especially take attempts to prognosticate statewide results from that poll with an even larger degree of skepticism.

SPP is usually spot-on in Pinellas, though. They've been largely accurate in FL-13.

Yeah, plus they went with a massive sample size for the survey (over 3,000).
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 28, 2014, 10:02:26 am
Just passing by to say I early voted on Saturday in Broward. Brought my sis who is just turned 18 and my mom. Polling site was busy.  There's more Scott signs than Scott voters in south florida. Three more for Charlie
I live up here in Palm Beach County, and I have seen a ton of Scott signs as well, and God knows this is not exactly Scott country Tongue.

I actually don't think I've seen any Scott signs, but if there's anywhere that's less Scott country than South Florida it'd be southern Pinellas.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Seats doomed to flip with retirement on: October 27, 2014, 06:05:31 pm
In the house, Collin Peterson's and John Barrow's distircts would be hard to maintain for the Democrats, as would Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Frank LoBiondo for the Republicans

Her district is R+2. Why would it be hard to maintain? (Assuming a decent candidate and a neutral year).

The seat went for Obama over Romney 53-46 despite being a two-point McCain win. Rapidly Democratizing district, plus the misfortune of being in the region where Democrats actually have some semblance of a bench.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 27, 2014, 05:24:50 pm
FL Republicans know that they are losing & release a brutal Anti-Crist ad:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMjfK4RZr7Y

If you want to talk about a war on women...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-1saGudoRE
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 27, 2014, 05:21:33 pm
Black turnout is also up massively relative to 2010 - 44% in Broward, 61% in Dade, and 195% in Duval.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: Gravis: Crist up 2 on: October 27, 2014, 12:57:41 pm
Crist winning this sample is ominous news for Scott

But don't we all trash Gravis?...

We trash Gravis because they're usually ridiculously pro-GOP.
8  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Lumine & SJoyce - A New Course for Atlasia (Victory!) on: October 27, 2014, 11:27:14 am

Good morning! I'd like to begin by thanking Marokai and Antonio for their words of congratulations, and I'm happy to appear here as the unofficial Vice President-elect. Lumine and I won this election through an agenda of real change, a new course for Atlasia, as it were. Now, the task falls to us to make those policy and mechanical changes to make a better Atlasia and a better game. It's time to do what is necessary to help the less-fortunate and to ensure that Atlasia will survive and find success well after both of us have exited the White House.

I'd especially like to thank Marokai, Poirot, and even Al, for running respectable, solid campaigns. Marokai and Poirot both ran campaigns of ideas, again reminding us why they're seen as some of this nation's foremost policymakers. Labor may not have won this round, but Labor ran a positive, ideas-focused campaign whose loss has more to do with national climate than any fault of the candidate. We extend an open hand to the candidates and their supporters, and invite them now to work with us to build a better Atlasia.

And to the 65 Atlasians who cast a ballot for us: thank you, and thank you to all who have been kind enough to congratulate here. I'm confident that Atlasia couldn't have chosen a better President-elect. I look forward to a productive administration, and to beginning the transition process as soon as everything gets certified. Until then, thank y'all again.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: MW Governor FitzGerald Refuses to State How Old the Earth Is on: October 26, 2014, 10:53:06 pm
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky on: October 26, 2014, 08:46:38 pm
Both the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Courier-Journal just endorsed Grimes. Pretty strongly worded editorials as well.

Are those both Democratic papers? What are their endorsement records?

Yes; both went for Obama twice, and Kerry before that. However, it was an interview with the Courier-Journal's editorial board where Grimes refused to say who she voted for in 2012.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY Senate Race 2014: Getting lucky in Kentucky on: October 26, 2014, 07:40:33 pm
Both the Lexington Herald-Leader and the Courier-Journal just endorsed Grimes. Pretty strongly worded editorials as well.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which Democratic Congressmen/Governors DON'T support SSM? Which Republicans DO? on: October 26, 2014, 07:50:02 am
Surely Steve Beshear and Earl Tomblin still oppose it.

“Our state is known for its kindness and hospitality to residents and visitors alike. I encourage all West Virginians—regardless of their personal beliefs—to uphold our statewide tradition of treating one another with dignity and respect.” - Earl Ray Tomblin, on the legalization of same-sex marriage in West Virginia.

Rep. David Jolly (R-FL) also supports gay marriage.
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of MW Governor LeBron FitzGerald (GOTV for Labor!) on: October 25, 2014, 09:59:40 pm
I grew up in a very conservative, Roman Catholic household and thankfully, I'm finished with private school. I'm currently attending a public university that doesn't force their beliefs on me. Does that mean my views will change? No guarantee on that. I take liberal stances on things like gay rights and women's reproductive rights which the church opposes, but I'm also a strong believer in God and that he created us with a purpose.

Wait, are you saying that you're a pro-choice creationist here?
14  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 2: Environmental Act on: October 25, 2014, 12:02:13 pm
Aye.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Soouth Florida to become its own state? on: October 25, 2014, 11:03:16 am
Orlando has more in common with North Florida than South Florida; that applies to pretty much everywhere in the state, to be fair. I'd just break apart everything in the Miami orbit, so everywhere that supports Miami over any other Florida team. That would mean West Palm Beach and down. No reason to stick Tampa and Orlando in a Miami-based state.

Just Broward, Dade, PB and maybe Monroe? Nah... Orange/Osceola is definitely not part of N. Florida. Though the North Orlando metro definitely is. Even East Orlando even feels like S. Florida. Its a looong story how I got to know the area. You could probably take in Tampa without having to take in Pasco, I think. There's NPR, but that's the only metro feeling place in Pasco.

Orlando is my blind spot; I admit don't know that area very well.  However, I do know the Tampa suburbs, Clearwater and to a lesser degree St. Pete and they are MUCH more culturally similar to North Florida than South Florida. I know it doesn't make a very pretty map, but unless there's some measure I'm missing I don't see the justification for grouping Miami with pretty much anywhere else in the state but West Palm Beach.

Orlando, at this point, certainly isn't the south. Maybe a few decades ago, but not now. As for the Bay area, we are home to the largest rebel flag in the world, admittedly, but the area is a better example of a melting pot of both cultures than probably any other in Florida. I'd be hard-pressed to call the area Southern, especially St. Pete.

Where exactly is NOT a melting pot in Florida?

Inglis.

NOWHERE in Florida is like the South as people here seem to see it, at least not east of Leon. Tallahassee, Gainesville, Daytona, and Jacksonville are mostly bland middle class suburbs you'd find anywhere in the country, just with more blacks. If you were dropped in a Jacksonville suburb you'd find zero cultural differences from one in Tampa, Northern Orlando (the only part of the city I know) or St. Pete.

I'd agree that Gainesville and (more marginally) Jacksonville aren't Southern. Tally definitely has more of a Southern culture from my visits - think Bradley's Country Store, but also the accents have a more Southern flavor than in Orlampa, and Tally actually had some actual Civil War battles (Natural Bridge).

I agree that Central Florida does have its differences, but if you're only splitting the state into 2 parts I cannot see where anyone could possibly put them with the South over the North; from everything I've seen of it Miami is just a completely different creature from anything else in the state.

South Florida (those three-four counties) certainly have a very distinct feel from the rest of the state, but I interpreted this movement more as an effort to split off the region that is concerned about climate change and which will be most affected by it to secure a government that cares about combating it, and one that aimed in taking in as much of Florida that isn't explicitly Southern as it can, to create a stronger and more influential state that can devote much of its resources to preventing Miami from sinking.

Here are my questions for the Floridian posters. Has there ever been an effort to separate Central FL (esp. Tampa and Orlando) with South FL before this? Is there any clamor in CF for separation like there has been in SF?

Apart from assorted neoconfederates in north Florida and all that the Conch Republic has done, never, not that I can recall at least. The nucleus has always been in the three counties of the South Florida metro; their proposals just vary in how much of the rest of the state they'd take with them.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Soouth Florida to become its own state? on: October 24, 2014, 09:35:10 pm
I'm not sure if this has been discussed yet, but apparently the city of Miami passed a resolution that favors the secession of South Florida.

South Miami. Difference of about 407,845 people. That said, I'm in full support of this - anything that both makes the University of South Florida's name actually make sense (it'd be the flagship public university of the State of South Florida) and puts my education under the control of someone other than whoever the hell The Villages sends to the state legislature is alright with me.

Likewise, Pasco needs to stay with Hillsborough and Pinellas. Its not as if once you cross the county line you're in Alabama.
The counties I'm unsure where to place are Hernando, Lake and Volusia.

Pasco (and Hernando, as you mentioned) are in a gray area. I'd draw the line along the northern border of Pinellas and Hillsborough going along a pretty fuzzy line (that covers much of Pasco & Hernando). Most of Lake and southern Volusia would also be in that area. Volusia on the whole I'd say would go in North Florida, if only for the whole Dale Earnhardt NASCAR Daytona thing.

Indian River, Brevard, and Polk Counties are not South Florida. What a random map.

Polk is iffy, but Brevard probably goes in the new Southern Florida state we're making here - not exactly a place I'd expect to see boiled peanuts by the roadside. Brevard was largely grown and shaped by the space race of the 60s, after all. Indian River, meanwhile, is New New Jersey (in fairness, Fellsmere isn't, but the county's coast-dominated).

Orlando has more in common with North Florida than South Florida; that applies to pretty much everywhere in the state, to be fair. I'd just break apart everything in the Miami orbit, so everywhere that supports Miami over any other Florida team. That would mean West Palm Beach and down. No reason to stick Tampa and Orlando in a Miami-based state.

Just Broward, Dade, PB and maybe Monroe? Nah... Orange/Osceola is definitely not part of N. Florida. Though the North Orlando metro definitely is. Even East Orlando even feels like S. Florida. Its a looong story how I got to know the area. You could probably take in Tampa without having to take in Pasco, I think. There's NPR, but that's the only metro feeling place in Pasco.

Orlando is my blind spot; I admit don't know that area very well.  However, I do know the Tampa suburbs, Clearwater and to a lesser degree St. Pete and they are MUCH more culturally similar to North Florida than South Florida. I know it doesn't make a very pretty map, but unless there's some measure I'm missing I don't see the justification for grouping Miami with pretty much anywhere else in the state but West Palm Beach.

Orlando, at this point, certainly isn't the south. Maybe a few decades ago, but not now. As for the Bay area, we are home to the largest rebel flag in the world, admittedly, but the area is a better example of a melting pot of both cultures than probably any other in Florida. I'd be hard-pressed to call the area Southern, especially St. Pete.

People need to understand that central Florida--the I-4 corridor and adjacent counties at least--are different from both north and south Florida. Culturally, demographically, and politically.

And of course this is the objectively correct answer.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AK-Hellenthal (R): Begich +10 on: October 24, 2014, 05:10:57 pm
lol, what

What is this pollster's track record? I'm getting reminders of that "Democratic pollster" showing Romney ahead by 20 points in Florida.

The difference between this and other Alaska polls is that it's 400 live interviews and 80% of those are cell phones, which is probably fair - 49% of Alaskans rely exclusively on their cell phones, after all. I doubt it's +10, but anywhere from a marginal Begich edge (like half a point) to even +5 Begich is where I think the race'll end up.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / AK-Hellenthal (R): Begich +10 on: October 24, 2014, 04:58:23 pm
Dominating.

Begich 49, Sullivan 39.
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: October 2014 General Election - President and Regional Senators on: October 24, 2014, 06:34:04 am
President and Vice President
[1]Lumine von Reuental/SJoyceFla
[2]Marokai Blue/Antonio V
[3]Poirot/Shua

IDS Senate
[1]North Carolina Yankee
20  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 1: Non controversial Act on: October 23, 2014, 08:43:06 pm
Define littering, tree, yard, and newly constructed.

Yeah, I'll second this request - I'm imagining a situation with a house that has a fairly small yard where two full-size oaks would just look ridiculous.

Perhaps a trees per square foot requirement would be more reasonable?
21  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 1: A Negative War on Poverty Act on: October 23, 2014, 08:39:23 pm
I guess I can support this - I question what regional welfare is supposed to be covering with the expansive federal program as it is already.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL-Gov, St. Pete Polls: Scott in the lead on: October 23, 2014, 08:37:04 pm
Lacks cell phones, but probably a fair assessment.

How so? A cellphoneless poll seems somewhat untrustworthy.

It's a problem that it excludes cell phones, but the rest of the numbers and samples seem fair and are what I expect of the race at this time (that time?)
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 22, 2014, 04:07:54 pm
Crist and Scott on the execution postponement

If gubernatorial debates were as widely watched as presidential debates, there's absolutely no way Rick Scott would still be in this race. What a brutal exchange.

Man, the criminal is really awkward during debates. I watched the last one, and I thought maybe it was just because he was unnerved from the fan debacle, but it seems to be par for the course.

Why is Scott constantly smiling while Crist is talking about executions? What a jerk.

Not a jerk, just absolutely clueless - rumor has it that he only learned after taking office that he actually had to physically sign death warrants.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac: Ties in both FL and CT on: October 22, 2014, 05:24:55 am
Crist is winning women by 6%, indies by 3%, and Crist's favorabilities (42/47) are marginally better than Scott's (40/48) as well.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: October 21, 2014, 11:09:47 pm
I watched some of that debate.  Rick Scott embarrassed himself.  How did this clueless boob become governor of Florida?  

$75.1 million of his personal fortune.
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