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April 24, 2014, 11:14:56 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Balance of Power - Russo-Japanese War (1903) (Phase One Results) on: Today at 09:02:37 am
We would hope for a resolution to this conflict, but doubt the willingness of the Russians to negotiate in good faith. There is a certain irony to being the nation to declare war and next to present oneself as the one advocating for peace, and to declaring war on a nation partially because of their naval buildup while going through a naval buildup oneself. If the Russians are willing to present evidence that they will negotiate fairly, then we will do so, but we will not waste breath in fruitless negotiations.
2  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Balance of Power (Gameplay Thread) - Early 1903 on: April 23, 2014, 02:56:26 pm

The Empire of Japan continues to be deeply disturbed by Russian actions - from a naval buildup, to their extensions into Manchuria, to their proclamation regarding Korea, we have seen that Russian aims are ambitious, imperialist, and threatening to the continuing territorial integrity of Japan and her allies. The most recent incident only confirms the hostile intentions of the Russian presence, an attack on neutral vessels in international waters. The Empire of Japan officially declares that a state of war exists between her and the Russian Empire. We urge our allies in the Three Power Alliance, as well as those in the Quadruple Alliance, to join us in our effort. Russian aggression in the region must be checked.

Russian private assets in Japan shall be frozen, and state assets shall be seized to fund the war. The remainder of our war moves shall occur in the war thread.

To: the Korean Empire, the Qing Empire, France.
The Empire of Japan harbors no ill-will towards your nations and does not desire war. Should you not intervene in the current war between Japan and Russia, none of your nations shall see any disturbance from the Japanese military and your current territorial status shall remain free from any Japanese interference over the course of the war.
3  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Obama wants to privatize the Tennessee Valley Authority on: April 22, 2014, 08:53:48 pm
It'll be entertaining to see Republicans forced into the position of opposing privatization.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Crist leading by 5 on: April 22, 2014, 08:25:35 pm
The Florida Democratic Party is terribly disorganized and has been loosing easily winnable races for years.
Is it all a problem with having few big donors?

A natural gerrymander amplified by Republican gerrymander leading to a lack of reason for big donors to donate to legislative Dems, a resulting lack of a bench (amplified by poor candidate recruitment), a resulting focus on winning big (federal) races rather than making a legislative bench, and, of course, poor management.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Florida 2014 Congressional Races on: April 22, 2014, 07:40:10 pm
Curt Clawson will be the next Representative from FL-19.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which Democrat is more competitive against Rick Scott? on: April 22, 2014, 07:39:21 pm
Well roughly 85% still don't know enough about Nan Rich to vote for her, but if she did pull an upset in the primary, while she's not as well-funded, she would still do better among her liberal base and should still be able to win indies against a criminal, so she would win. Crist despite a lot of aggression, everyone knows who he is most lefties will just bite their tongue and vote for him anyways over the Green candidate. He's off to a terrible start, though he would have the better chance of dethroning the now "pro-Medicaid", anti-computer, voting purger. Pick your flip-flopper.

Despite his fiscal conservatism and terrible stances on immigration, guns and separation of church and state, I know I would vote for him. Not in the primary of course, but for the general, hey, he's the best Florida's going to get for now and he'll at least be term-limited again after another 4 years.

So many things wrong with this - first, of course, is that Crist can run for re-election in 2018. Florida law limits one to two consecutive gubernatorial terms. But to get to the main point - people don't know Nan Rich. They sure as hell know Rick Scott. And yet, despite all the allegations of being a criminal, he's still crushing Rich. Rich simply doesn't have the money, name recognition, or political skill to go against Scott and expect to win. At this point, Crist is our only hope.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which Democrat is more competitive against Rick Scott? on: April 22, 2014, 06:44:40 pm
Crist is the objectively correct answer.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Florida 2014 Congressional Races on: April 21, 2014, 11:41:50 pm
FL-19 primary is tomorrow.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: April 21, 2014, 10:11:50 pm
Rev. Sykes is in. He's the President of the St. Pete NAACP and the pastor of Bethel Community Baptist (the most influential African-American church in the city). Military background too.

Does he have any notable policy positions besides those mentioned in the article?

I know that he's been active in the gun control push around here, and he's also been an advocate of Rubio's voucher plan, which could prove problematic in a primary against Ehrlich. Other than that he's a pretty solid D.

However, I doubt Ehrlich runs for the seat. She seems happy at Fox.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004 Presidential Election: GAME THREAD on: April 21, 2014, 09:42:54 pm
Breaking: Edwards Hospitalized


Senator John Edwards, until now a strong insurgent candidate threatening to become the Democratic frontrunner for the nomination, has been taken to the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics. On the eve of a crucial debate in New Hampshire, Edwards had finished an appearance in Iowa City (where he appeared normal, if a bit pale) and was heading to the Des Moines airport when he complained of chest pain, dizziness, and shortness of breath. Cardiologists at the hospital refused requests for interviews, but the campaign released a statement claiming that it involved a non-life-threatening heart condition, but one that requires treatment by cardiologists and means he should avoid travel. The Senator will undergo treatment immediately. The telegenic candidate is expected to return to the trail within a few weeks, though whether he'll still have a shot at the nomination remains to be seen. A campaign spokesperson confirmed that the candidate intended to return to the trail once his medical issue was resolved.

OOC: I'll be out of town until next week.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Alex Sink running for Bill Young's old house seat on: April 21, 2014, 08:51:30 pm
Rev. Sykes is in. He's the President of the St. Pete NAACP and the pastor of Bethel Community Baptist (the most influential African-American church in the city). Military background too.
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 1: Housing First Act (Debating) on: April 21, 2014, 04:58:35 pm
I fully support this legislation. Scott's presented well-thought-out legislation that's based on something entirely successful IRL. I don't see this becoming a problem.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: who is the best governor in the us? on: April 21, 2014, 04:18:19 pm
I'll go with Dayton.

Mine Tongue.

Jesus.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: is the preceding atlasian more conservative or more liberal than your rep.? on: April 21, 2014, 04:11:12 pm
Certainly to the left of David Jolly.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who here has political ambitions? on: April 21, 2014, 04:09:45 pm
I've been involved in local campaigns - wouldn't rule it out yet.
16  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS1: The Take the Power Back Act of 2014 [Voting on Override] on: April 21, 2014, 02:21:53 pm
Nay.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul facing more intense criticism from right and left — which he says is on: April 20, 2014, 07:26:41 pm
I'm sorry, but I wanted to slightly anger my dear Chairmansanchez Cheesy.

Pretty sure Sanchez is a year older than I am.

Sjoyce, I'm sure you won't vote for him. You're slightly improving. Firstly, you don't support Ted Cruz anymore (a big LOL you have supported him). Maybe you will finally realize Paul is far from being a "libertarian left leaning" like you.

Depends on who the Dems put up and how the climate is. I'll also be in college then, so where I go could influence how I vote as well - if I get into somewhere like GW or American then I'll vote for whoever (probably third party), since it's DC. Different calculations if I stay in-state.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: FL: SUSA: Crist leading by 5 on: April 20, 2014, 07:24:41 pm
I still think Scott stands a decent shot here - he is going to have the financial advantage. Scott is also polling at only 71% with Republicans - once the attacks start on Crist I suspect most will come home to him. And in a "race to the bottom", I think he has a somewhat easy task at destroying Crist's favorably. I would not be surprised to see both under 40% on Election Day.

Financial advantage hasn't done him much good so far. I'd suspect there's a lot of Republicans who are privately backing Charlie - people like Mike Fasano and Paula Dockery come to mind - which could explain the numbers with Republicans. And Crist's favorabilities are a lot more resistant than you give credit for. This is Charlie Crist, after all. The man's the physical embodiment of sunshine. Personable, telegenic, and (as we saw with the Lopez-Cantera interview) funny (or, in other words, the opposite of Scott).
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: why is being a northeast liberal governor considered a bad thing... on: April 20, 2014, 01:50:02 pm
Guntaker's right - they don't add anything special. No outreach to any swing state or minorities.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul facing more intense criticism from right and left which he says is on: April 20, 2014, 01:48:35 pm
Question - how is this a 'general election poll'?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul facing more intense criticism from right and left — which he says is on: April 20, 2014, 01:10:14 pm
Fortunately, most of his fans won't be able to vote in 2016.

As the forum's resident "Paultard Democrat" I'll be able to vote in 2016 Smiley

As will pretty much anyone on the forum now, save the 13 and 14-year-olds.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: FL-19/News-Press: Clawson up big on: April 19, 2014, 04:18:55 pm
Do you think this or the St Pete's Poll showing Clawson narrowly ahead is closer to the mark? Clawson's definitely winning the yard sign race from my observations, not that that's worth anything.

I honestly don't know - I'm not tuned in to Southwest FL politics as much as I should be. This poll has a smaller sample size, but it's more recent and probably by a more reliable pollster (PPP). My guess is that Clawson wins with around 40% of the vote.
23  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: People who wear bow ties tend to be... on: April 19, 2014, 02:21:41 pm


A CPAC attendee. So yeah, right-wing frat boy types trying to be cool.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / FL-19/PPP: Clawson up big on: April 19, 2014, 08:05:52 am
Commissioned by The News-Press, a Gannett paper in Southwest Florida. Conducted by PPP.

Businessman Curt Clawson: 38%
State Sen. Lizbeth Benacquisto: 19%
Businessman Michael Dreikron: 18%
Fmr. State Rep. Paige Kreegel: 17%
Undecided: 7%

Survey of 669 Republicans. Poll is here.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2004: Mission Accomplished! on: April 19, 2014, 07:23:40 am
I take it Vitter and Isakson both won their runoffs as well? Still, excellent results.
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