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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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76  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: July 16, 2015, 08:27:45 pm
I'm just surprised it took 14 pages for this to devolve into the inevitable discussion of Israel.
77  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: July 16, 2015, 07:48:35 am
New St. Pete Polls primary poll has Jolly at 22%, Miller at 12%, CLC at 11%, DeSantis at 9%.
78  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 15, 2015, 07:26:01 pm
Interesting clash between Susannah Randolph (Grayson's district director and wife of Orange County Tax Collector Scott Randolph) and State Sen. Darren Soto seems to be brewing in the Democratic primary for FL-09.
79  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1964 Primaries (The Hearse at Monticello) on: July 15, 2015, 05:59:26 pm
LBJ/Welsh
80  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Mock Court Term Thread Please Sign In on: July 15, 2015, 03:54:07 pm
x Justice Douglas

I second the nomination of Justice Black.
81  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Cheney opposes Iraq war in 1994 on: July 14, 2015, 10:27:42 pm
Went from former SecDef and think-tanker to CEO of Halliburton. Not a hard question.
82  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / AFL-CIO statement on the Walker announcement on: July 13, 2015, 09:10:46 pm


This is the real and total entirety of the statement.
83  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Florida Senator Bill Nelson diagnosed with prostate cancer; will undergo surgery on: July 13, 2015, 04:16:59 pm
Surgery was a complete success
84  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 13, 2015, 10:58:15 am
Jolly in. Announcement next week.
85  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: FL: Rereredistricting on: July 13, 2015, 07:00:29 am
Any clues on the breakdown of FL-7?

Doesn't really matter - FL-7 is Mica's district, and he's well enough entrenched that Dems are best waiting on a retirement. It (along with IRL's seat) could be decent targets in a wave year without incumbency, but with the current incumbents they're all but impossible.
86  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: If you could change 4 Supreme Court cases what would you change on: July 13, 2015, 06:57:02 am
Really? Nobody's mentioned Gregg v. Georgia yet?

Gregg v. Georgia

First one I mentioned. Bad, bad decision.
87  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: July 12, 2015, 10:49:16 pm
And Jolly is an establishment man, right?

That's correct, though I'd imagine there's enough money/votes to go around for both Jolly and CLC to be competitive - ideologies are fairly similar, but they have different bases and largely travel in different circles of allies (CLC being a figure of the Scott administration, those establishment members who aren't big fans of Scott could coalesce around Jolly).
88  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Webb: Democratic Party has moved "way far to the left" on: July 12, 2015, 10:45:21 pm
"Former Reagan administration official runs to be Democratic presidential nomination, is shocked party is well to the left of him."
89  Forum Community / Election and History Games / Re: Mock Court Term on: July 12, 2015, 07:35:32 pm
Name: William O. Douglas
Ideology: Liberal
Desired case: Dennis v. US

Can't let the conservatives have all the fun
90  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: FL-Sen: Murphy In on: July 12, 2015, 02:15:37 pm
What wings are the different GOPHers catering to? Which one is getting the Club for Growth, which is getting K street etc. etc.

DeSantis = Tea Party, FreedomWorks, Club for Growth, ect.
Lopez-Cantera = Establishment
Miller = SoCons, Hawks

All 3 are also getting regional support.

Except that's the thing - the regional support they're getting isn't representative of the whole state. DeSantis has his base in Jax, Miller in the Panhandle, and CLC in Dade County, but none of them are based in (vote and donor-rich) Orlampa. Those voters are up for grabs, and a lot of them, at least in the western half, are waiting to see if Jolly jumps in.
91  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 12, 2015, 10:08:15 am
Some very tentative rumblings are suggesting that Jolly may run for Senate, with the Republican candidate replacing him being former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker - someone with a proven ability to win black voters (albeit in a municipal race), and someone who'd be the frontrunner against anyone save Crist.

Baker said no to running here before St. Pete was added, I don't know why he'd say yes now.

Probably. But i would like to know more about how he gets his crossover appeal. A moderate pragmatist?

As Mayor, Baker focused heavily on investing in Midtown - bringing in a new library, new post office, that kinda thing - and building relationships with the African-American community in St. Pete through moves like appointing a deputy mayor for Midtown (though that was in a race with no partisan labels).
92  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: FL: Rereredistricting on: July 11, 2015, 09:16:15 am
So in the end, are FL democrats going to pick up new seats?

That's a politics question, not a redistricting one. The answer is "yes, probably, but it's the Florida Democratic Party we're talking about so maybe not."
93  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: FL: Rereredistricting on: July 10, 2015, 10:08:50 pm
It looks like wholesale changes in the northern and central districts will be difficult to avoid given the directed changes to FL-5, 13 and 14. FL-3 will get pushed well to the east probably picking up Putnam and most of Marion counties as FL-2 will have to come to the doorstep of Gainesville as it gives up most of Leon and other counties on the GA border. FL-4 may have to chop into FL-6 depending on how FL-3 is configured. The effects of FL-3 and 4 on FL-6 could then push it to take up Deltona from FL-7.

Here's how the north might look under that scenario.



What would be the political breakdown of that new FL-3? I know the FL Rs have long attempted to split or otherwise minimize the influence of Gainesville and even smaller towns like Palatka - does one that largely contains both have any potential for a Dem pickup?
94  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 10, 2015, 12:53:00 pm
How Democratic would Jolly's district be?

The kind that went for Obama by eight or ten points.
95  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 10, 2015, 12:42:17 pm
Some very tentative rumblings are suggesting that Jolly may run for Senate, with the Republican candidate replacing him being former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker - someone with a proven ability to win black voters (albeit in a municipal race), and someone who'd be the frontrunner against anyone save Crist.
96  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 10, 2015, 10:51:06 am
I wonder if there's any chance the legislative Republicans will draw a one-precinct-wide connector from Tampa to the solid Democratic section of Pinellas County just to keep Jolly safe without "crossing Tampa Bay."

Can't see that flying with Fair Districts - the court will just strike it down again.
97  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 10, 2015, 10:08:51 am
Beating Rick Scott was a sure thing too, and look what happened to that.

When Crist carried Pinellas by eleven points?

He didn't campaign exclusively in Pinellas county. There's a difference between winning a congressional district or county in a Gubernatorial race and winning it on a Congressional level.

No, but Crist's strength in Pinellas relative to his performance in the rest of the state, particularly as a trend over several elections, indicates that he has a natural base here that'll boost him in any Pinellas race.

Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.

Of course i don't live in Florida, but disagree - she is generally disliked. And new district will have enough of Leon county (and area in between), where Brown is tremendously unpopular, unlike Graham, for opposite result..

She's not disliked in her district. This'll be a minority-majority seat, with most of that population in Duval.

I saw completely different projected maps of the district on DKE. And it wasn't majority Black, BTW - about 45% White and 45% Black

The Legislature is still the one that gets to redraw the lines. If they see a chance to take out Graham, they'll do it. It's possible to draw an African-American majority district that doesn't touch Graham's, but this is an opportunity to gain a seat to make up for likely losses elsewhere (FL-13, FL-10).

98  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 10, 2015, 09:28:22 am
Beating Rick Scott was a sure thing too, and look what happened to that.

When Crist carried Pinellas by eleven points?
99  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 10, 2015, 08:32:33 am
Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.

Of course i don't live in Florida, but disagree - she is generally disliked. And new district will have enough of Leon county (and area in between), where Brown is tremendously unpopular, unlike Graham, for opposite result..

She's not disliked in her district. This'll be a minority-majority seat, with most of that population in Duval.
100  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Florida Megathread on: July 10, 2015, 06:26:58 am
Obviously - new district will NOT be just that. It will include considerable part of Jacksonville, and it will be substantially less white. And i don't see any reasons why Graham can't win new JACK-TAL district..

Because a majority-Jax district would be won by Corrine Brown.
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