Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 02, 2014, 01:25:59 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 70
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - October 2014 on: October 01, 2014, 08:36:43 am
Ted Cruz.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ Sen 2016: How will McCain fare if he runs for sixth term? on: September 25, 2014, 11:15:02 am
I would still expect him to win, but by the smallest margin he ever received.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP Primaries: Your Predicted Top Three Only on: September 25, 2014, 10:52:14 am
I decided to change mine around a bit and add a 4th candidate:

Red: Christie
Blue: Paul
Green: Cruz
Yellow: Walker
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Good Post Gallery II on: September 25, 2014, 09:43:58 am
I take it you don't mean such liberal celebrities as Clint Eastwood, Ted Nugent, or the late Anita Bryant and Charlton Heston.  I presume you also don't mean such conservative religious leaders as the Dalai Lama, Rowan Williams, or the late Martin Luther King.  The idea that religion must be conservative is a misconception that unfortunately far too many people believe.  Yeshua bin Miriam was certainly not a conservative.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: West Virginia: What will be Capito's margin of victory? on: September 25, 2014, 09:40:39 am
Between 15 and 24 points; as the consensus seems to be.

In a perfect world, she and Tennant would both lose; and the great Phil Hudok would be the next United States Senator from West Virginia.

Wow... he's terrible - no wonder you like him.


But his website is hilarious.

The Mr. Obama Head.
His website is one of the most amateurish ones that I have ever seen.

Anyway, I could see Capito easily winning by close to 20%.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Robert Sarvis (L-VA) on: September 25, 2014, 09:38:48 am
I would imagine that Robert Sarvis would get around 4 or 5% of the vote. The  final results might turn out to be 55% for Mark Warner, 40% for Ed Gillespie and 5% for Robert Sarvis.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Iowa? on: September 25, 2014, 09:36:35 am
I see Braley winning, but I won't be surprised if Ernst pulls it off.
I feel the same. The Iowa senate race could really go either way at this point.
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you have voted in the preceding election? on: September 25, 2014, 09:25:32 am
Maubus.

1966 Senate election in Tennessee (Frank Clement vs. Howard Baker).
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Two weak candidates in 2016 on: September 23, 2014, 03:06:13 pm
If both candidates are equally weak, it would probably default to generic R vs. generic D. But Biden is a way stronger candidate than Corbett. I agree that a Democratic match for Corbett would be more like Neil Abercrombie or Pat Quinn.
I assume that Jon Huntsman would run as a third-party candidate if Pat Quinn received the Democratic nomination and if Tom Corbett recieved the Republican nomination in this scenario.

I imagine the map would look like this:

Former Ambassador Jon Huntsman (R-UT)/Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV): 366 Electoral Votes
Governor Pat Quinn (D-IL)/Former Governor Neil Ambercrombie (D-HI): 140 Electoral Votes
Former Governor Tom Corbett (R-PA)/Former Congressman Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI): 32 Electoral Votes
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeff Sessions on: September 23, 2014, 12:36:56 pm
WV is more GOP than LA at this point.

Agreed. Even with a fairly weak opponent like Sessions, Clinton would still have her work cut out in attempting to win West Virginia regardless of whether she manages a win in Louisiana. West Virginia would be among the last states to leave the Republican column nationwide; if that state is lost, the party is lucky to have won 50 votes in the electoral college.
That's the reason why I still have Jeff Sessions carrying it in my map. Hillary Clinton would undoubtedly do much better than Obama in West Virginia, but would still end up losing in the end. In addition, I might be wrong, but Jeff Sessions seems like the kind of a Republican who could appeal to white working class voters in West Virginia IMO.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in Arkansas? on: September 23, 2014, 07:22:45 am
I think that Tom Cotton will probably end up winning by a point or two.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeff Sessions on: September 22, 2014, 05:01:56 pm
The Dakotas have elected Democrats to Congress. They could vote against a really bad GOP candidate. I don't know if that's Sessions, though.
Sessions would be a pretty bad candidate and his running-mate in my map would make the Republican ticket even more toxic.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeff Sessions on: September 22, 2014, 01:31:59 pm
This is what Hillary Clinton's ceiling would likely be if she faced off against Jeff Sessions:

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Mark Warner (D-VA): 430 Electoral Votes
Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL)/Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX): 108 Electoral Votes
14  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: How Would Your State Vote on Secession? on: September 22, 2014, 01:22:35 pm
I doubt that more than 5 or 10% of the population of New Jersey would vote in favor of it splitting off from the United States.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Sabato's Gubernatorial Rating Changes on: September 22, 2014, 06:34:23 am
RIP Otter
I guess OC was right in his predictions after all.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeff Sessions on: September 20, 2014, 08:44:52 pm
Sessions vs Clinton would be a Democratic 49 state win,...and like McGovern he'd probably lose his home state by a narrow margin.

Only Mississippi would vote for him.

He'd get Goldwater results against O'Malley or Biden.

And with Bernie Sanders, he'd get a flip of the 1928 election,except instead of Massachusetts and Rhode Island,he'd probably just barely get Utah and Idaho


I really don't see how Jeff Sessions would lose a state that Obama lost by over 20 points (Alabama), but carry a state that Obama only lost by about 12 points (Mississippi). Realistically, if Jeff Sessions were to only carry one state, it would probably be Oklahoma.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which potential GOP candidate is the biggest hawk? on: September 20, 2014, 08:41:50 pm
Probably John Bolton, Peter King, Rick Santorum, Allen West and Chris Christie
18  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of people who purchase vinyl records nowadays on: September 19, 2014, 10:54:09 am
FFs, and I'm one of them. 

I was born in the 90s, so music has been nearly all digital for my entire life.  I like the convenience of CD and MP3 (and the fact that MP3 doesn't degrade like vinyl, cassette, or CD), but vinyl is just plain awesome.  As far as I'm concerned, 8-tracks are junk and not worth my time, and cassettes are a huge pain in the butt because it's so easy to rip the tape out and render them worthless.  Plus, vinyl will sound better than any of them most of the time.  Now before you start chewing me out and pointing to all this science that proves that CD "sounds better," please hear me out: vinyl sounds better because it's usually mastered better, not because of any inherent technical advantage.  The loudness war has pretty much destroyed high fidelity and dynamic range on most CDs and digital files (and even some vinyl), so old vinyl will generally have superior fidelity and dynamics.  I love a lot of old music (especially 50s-80s rock), so vinyl is a natural choice for me because most of that music was originally recorded and mastered for it.  Simply put, it's the way that music was meant to be heard.

On a side note, I noticed that many of my 78RPM records from the late 1950s (around the time that they were finally phased out) sound a whole lot better than their 45RPM counterparts. Several examples of records that I have from the late 1950s that sound better on 78s than on 45s are "Twilight Time" by The Platters, "Little Star" by The Elegants, "Tonight Tonight" by The Mello-Kings, "Walking After Midnight" by Patsy Cline and "Johnny B Goode" by Chuck Berry. By that time those songs were released, the 78RPM format was basically over for the most part, with the exception of jukebox operators and the small number of people who still had older phonograph equipment built prior to the introduction of LP's and 45's in 1948 and 1949.
Those are all awesome songs, IMO.
The 1950s era of music is pretty much my favorite. There was a lot of great music released back then and I am lucky to have many of the songs of the era on the original 78rpm records (which are getting rarer and rarer as time passes). I also agree with you that 8-tracks were a mediocre format for the most part, as the fidelity is extremely poor on most of them and their design had some serious flaws. I really don't know why the 8-track format was able to last from the mid 1960s to the early 1980s.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: September 19, 2014, 09:51:19 am
1984 (George Wallace somehow gets the Democratic nomination):

President Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Vice-President George H.W. Bush (R-TX): 467 Electoral Votes 59.50%
Governor George Wallace (D-AL)/Senator Ernest Hollings (D-SC): 71 Electoral Votes 39.10%
Others (Libertarian, Communist, Socialist Workers, New Alliance, Etc.): 1.40%
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: September 19, 2014, 09:39:32 am
1976:

Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson (D-WA)/Former Governor Jimmy Carter (D-GA): 378 Electoral Votes 53.08%
Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Richard Schweiker (R-PA): 160 Electoral Votes 45.02%
Others (Libertarian, American Independent, Communist, Socialist Workers, Etc.): 0 Electoral Votes 1.90%
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeff Sessions on: September 19, 2014, 08:56:04 am
Jeff Sessions would do very well in parts of the South (namely Alabama (he'd most likely get close to 70% of the vote there given that it is his home state), South Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, etc.) and in some of the Western states like Idaho, Utah and Wyoming, but that's probably about it.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate control after 2014, 2016, and 2018 Senate elections on: September 18, 2014, 04:46:16 pm
2014: 50-50 split with Joe Biden as the tie-breaking vote (Republicans pick up Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota and Iowa, while Greg Orman ekes out a win in Kansas and decides to caucus with the Democrats)
2016: 53-47 Democratic Majority (Republicans pick up Nevada and Colorado, while the Democrats pick up Illinois, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania)
2018: 55-45 Republican Majority (Democrats pick up Nevada, while the Republicans pick up Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin)

Why New Jersey? You think somebody like Kean (or Christie) can beat Menendez?
I am a bit on the fence with New Jersey, but I think that Bob Menendez could be vulnerable in a midterm election that might favor Republicans due his rumored corruption charges. It's possible that Tom Kean Jr. or Chris Christe (assuming that he fully recovers from the Bridgegate fiasco) could be formidable candidates against Menendez, though it still is a bit too early to tell.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate control after 2014, 2016, and 2018 Senate elections on: September 18, 2014, 09:41:41 am
2014: 50-50 split with Joe Biden as the tie-breaking vote (Republicans pick up Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota and Iowa, while Greg Orman ekes out a win in Kansas and decides to caucus with the Democrats)
2016: 53-47 Democratic Majority (Republicans pick up Nevada and Colorado, while the Democrats pick up Illinois, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania)
2018: 55-45 Republican Majority (Democrats pick up Nevada, while the Republicans pick up Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin)
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jindal vs. Clinton on: September 17, 2014, 03:24:48 pm


This, minus Alaska, Indiana, and Kentucky, and maybe add Nebraska 2nd
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Every parties best state in every election on: September 16, 2014, 09:10:20 pm
You should make a note that in 1948 Strom Thurmond had the Democratic ballot line in Mississippi and in 1964 Goldwater had both the Democratic and the Republican, while Truman and Johnson were on third-party ballot lines.  So someone who checked the box to vote for a straight Democratic ticket would have voted for Thurmond or Goldwater.
I never really though of that actually. The fact that Goldwater was on both the Republican and Democratic ballots in Mississippi might have inflated his actual level of support by about 10-15 points.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 70


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines