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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Iran vs Saudi Arabia on: September 26, 2016, 10:50:05 am
Both are awful and disgusting, but still prefer Iran. Saudia Arabia is terrible with their crazy ideology of islam and a sponsor of terrorism.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: FDR vs Trump 2016 on: September 14, 2016, 11:43:21 am
FDR obliterates Trump in a 50 state landslide.
Trump would only win Alabama, West Virginia, and Oklahoma against FDR.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Thurmond 1948/Johnson 1964 voter on: September 14, 2016, 08:16:37 am
A Southern Democrat who changed their views on Civil Rights for African Americans sometime in the 1950s.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: HuffPo: Trump Threatens War Over Hand Gestures on: September 10, 2016, 04:25:05 pm
Any war with Iran would be a suicide mission and end in a humiliating defeat for the US.
5  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: What if Reagan had picked Ford as VP in 1980? on: September 05, 2016, 06:36:11 pm
I would imagine that Ronald Reagan's Presidency would have turned out the same as in RL if he picked Gerald Ford as his running mate. A Dukakis-Ford race in 1988 would have been interesting to see as well. I doubt that Ford would have ran an aggressive campaign like George H.W. Bush did in RL, so Dukakis could have very well won the election.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will a Republican reach 70% in West Virginia in one of the next four elections? on: September 05, 2016, 10:24:31 am
It is likely that Trump will this November.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will Hillary win reelection? on: September 05, 2016, 10:23:28 am
Knowing the G.O.P, when next election comes, they'll nominate Ted Cruz or some other Reactionary-Lite Conservative and lose. Come 2024 though, I think they'll nominate someone more moderate, but still a Conservative. Can't put a name on that person, because they're likely still in the state legislature.

If they nominate Ted Cruz he'll destroy Hillary Clinton in a landslide like this


I do not see Ted Cruz ever carrying Washington, Oregon, Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire, and ME-1. He is a very poor fit for all of those states. Also, Cruz would have trouble in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida as well.
8  General Discussion / Alternative History / WI: Iranian Green Movement More Successful? on: September 04, 2016, 05:55:37 pm
Let's say that the Iranian Green Movement somehow succeeded in overthrowing Ayatollah Khamenei and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and allows Reza Pahlavi and/or Maryam Rajavi to come to power instead with limited US backing. What would have been the effect on contemporary Middle Eastern politics?
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict Clinton's EV range on: August 21, 2016, 07:20:28 am
Anywhere between 213-516 EV.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of TNvolunteer? on: August 16, 2016, 05:51:49 pm
FF (not an angry NH woman)
11  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sam Spade Memorial Good Post Gallery on: August 16, 2016, 05:50:08 pm
Abortion is a weird issue that defies most trends, unlike most issues. But still, people want to "conserve" Roe v Wade and its effects.

But look at other issues. Would anyone really say being anti-slavery is "progressive"? Is being against Jim Crow laws and for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 "progressive"? Is believing women should vote "progressive," at least in the United States? Is supporting Social Security and Medicare?

No. They are the status quo, wanting to keep them is conservative. Being a progressive is about making progress, it's about changing things. And there's always those who want to regress to the way things used to be. If you support same-sex marriage in the United States, you're no longer a progressive on the issue, you're a conservative. You may still be a progressive on gay issues in general, since there's still work to be done, but there's no more work to be done in the United States on the marriage aspect of the issue.

Life moves on.

New generations will bring new issues.

If the progressive agenda that exists now as of 2016 is completely achieved in the next 50 years, then that's not what the progressive agenda of 2116 will be. By then the conservative position might be keeping the social systems of the 20th and 21st centuries in place (maybe even things like single-payer healthcare, free college, the EPA, and Social Security), while the progressives would probably be demanding something totally different.

Yeah, a 90-year-old living today in 2016 probably isn't "progressive" on, say, LGBT issues. But they might have been a fierce progressive fighter in their youth, protesting for Civil Rights and women's rights, for the creation of Medicare and the EPA. But today we would mark that person as a conservative, because they're conservative on today's issues. They fought the good fight, they made progress, and  the progressive agenda moved on with new ideas from new generations. To say they became "more conservative with age" would be completely missing the point.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: which is more likely to get elected president first game on: August 16, 2016, 05:36:11 pm
The proud Scientologist.

Mohammed Reza Pahlavi or Ayatollah Khamenei?
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better) on: August 15, 2016, 10:16:38 am
Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.

He would've been barely competitive/trailing in NC, considering how poorly he consistently did in FL.

BS on Ohio and Wisconsin, even Colorado would be a tossup. If the last polls for even rubio had hillary up in OH over him, then she'd be up even higher on Cruz logically.
North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia would probably be close, but I could see Cruz carrying them by about the same percentage that Mitt Romney received in 2012. I also have have Cruz carrying Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado due to high turnout by evangelical voters (which make up a sizable percentage of voters in all 4 of those states).] On the other hand, Hillary Clinton would be polling about the same in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida and a couple points higher in New Hampshire if Cruz were the nominee.

Incorrect. The evangelical vote has already solidified behind Trump. How can Cruz, thus, put those states in-play on the backs of evangelicals:

http://www.pewforum.org/2016/07/13/evangelicals-rally-to-trump-religious-nones-back-clinton/


Ted Cruz has a much more consistent record in favor of socially conservative values than Donald Trump. For example, Trump was pro-choice up until a few years ago, has a mixed record on same-sex marriage, only offered lukewarm support for the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and is opposed to laws banning transgender individuals from using a bathroom that does not match their gender at birth. On the other hand, Cruz has been a strong opponent of abortion and same-sex marriage since he first entered into politics, strongly supported the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and strongly supports laws banning transgender individuals from using a bathroom that does not match their gender at birth. As a result, I feel that Cruz would have gotten the support of about 80-85% of evangelical voters if he was the Republican nominee as opposed to the 78% of evangelical voters who support Trump.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better) on: August 14, 2016, 06:08:42 am
Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.

He would've been barely competitive/trailing in NC, considering how poorly he consistently did in FL.

BS on Ohio and Wisconsin, even Colorado would be a tossup. If the last polls for even rubio had hillary up in OH over him, then she'd be up even higher on Cruz logically.
North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia would probably be close, but I could see Cruz carrying them by about the same percentage that Mitt Romney received in 2012. I also have have Cruz carrying Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado due to high turnout by evangelical voters (which make up a sizable percentage of voters in all 4 of those states). On the other hand, Hillary Clinton would be polling about the same in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida and a couple points higher in New Hampshire if Cruz were the nominee.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY-Gravis: Clinton +14 on: August 13, 2016, 06:40:23 pm
Trump won't get closer to Hillary than Bernie did here. He's going to lose by at least 20%.
I think that Trump might struggle to get 30% in New York and lose every county in the state if his campaign continues to implode.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better) on: August 13, 2016, 06:36:15 pm
Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Ayad Allawi becomes Iraq's Prime Minister in 2010 on: August 08, 2016, 02:40:27 pm
Depending on his political views (which I don't really know too much about tbh), Ayad Allawi might have convinced the Russian and Iranian governments to join in the fight against ISIS much earlier than in RL if he became the Iraqi Prime Minister in 2010?
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sam Spade Memorial Good Post Gallery on: August 06, 2016, 06:21:13 pm
Doesn't seem like a problem. The US sent political advisors to help Boris Yeltsin get reelected in the 1990s. Putin dining a fringe candidate and a couple Trump surrogates is insignificant by comparison.

I disagree with the Greens on almost everything, but not on a reset with Russia. Continuing a Cold War Era pissing contest over Crimea isn't worth it when Putin could be helping us knock down radical Islamic brutes.

Working with Russia would be great insurance against Chinese ambitions and Muslim caliphates in Western Europe in the next half century too. Make Realpolitik Great Again.

I'm looking forward to the day Russian and US troops can link up somewhere in the Middle East and enjoy some smokes as they did in Berlin in 1945. Bonus - Putin is a benign authoritarian compared to Stalin.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What states will Donald Trump do better than Mitt Romney in? on: August 06, 2016, 06:03:41 pm
Probably West Virginia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and Maine.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump break 60% anywhere? (Now with WY option) on: August 06, 2016, 06:01:18 pm
Trump will get over 70% in Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia and will get about 60% in NE-3 and Kentucky.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Dutchess County NY on: August 05, 2016, 04:07:20 pm
Clinton will easily win Dutchess county (and all the other counties in New York as well).
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who Is The Worst President of All Time? on: August 04, 2016, 07:56:49 pm
Definitely Buchanan, though I would expect most forum members to vote for Ronald Reagan as the worst President.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of US Presidents Series: Chester A. Arthur through Theodore Roosevelt on: August 04, 2016, 07:55:21 pm
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The CrabCake Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: August 03, 2016, 06:44:46 pm
Angry Iranian women will make the country safe-MDP from here on out.
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Hassan Rouhani on: August 03, 2016, 06:43:14 pm
Probably mixed overall. Even though Hassan Rouhani favors gradual reform in Iran, he has little power to implement any real change. That being said, Rouhani is still a much better person than the Shah of Iran ever was and does have a high level of experience in the Iranian political system. On a side note, he might lose reelection in 2017 to either Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Qasem Soleimani.
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