Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2017, 05:44:59 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Show Posts
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 97
1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: An American House of Cards: The Kennedy Dynasty on: April 17, 2017, 07:18:14 pm
Great timeline!, though I would probably give Vermont to MacNider, as Vermont was still a solidly Republican state in 1940.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Bold 2018 predictions? on: April 13, 2017, 08:04:14 pm
LOL that delusion again :-D

Reality: GOP near the Filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a smaller House majority in the ranks of the first 6 Bush years.
I have the Republicans having a net gain of 4 Senate seats (I feel that the Democrats will gain Arizona, Nevada, and Texas, but losing Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Ohio) and the Democrats retaking the House by a decent margin. My gut intuition is that 2018 is going to be a strange midterm election.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which of these monarchies will still exist in 2050? on: April 10, 2017, 07:50:34 pm
Probably all except Bahrain (I feel that the oppressed Shi'a majority will overthrow the monarch and possibly merge with Iran) and Saudi Arabia (I feel that Saudi Arabia's support for the anti-Assad forces in Syria, intervention in the Yemeni Civil War, and continued repression of its Shi'a population will eventually tear the country apart within the next 5-10 years).
4  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: WI: Shah of Iran Overhrown in 1963 on: April 06, 2017, 08:39:34 pm
This, if it occurs, will be a headache for whoever is President during this time.
I agree. I think that Iran would initially have descended into open conflict between the left-wing and the religious factions if the Shah was overthrown in 1963 that might have lasted into the late 1960s. I also feel that Ayatollah Khomenei would have joined the Arab Coalition in the 1967 Six Day War despite Iran's religious and ideological differences with the Arab states. Having Iran intervene in the war on the side of the Arabs definitely would have denied Israel a victory in the war and would have likely convinced the Iranian people to support their new government much like how the Iran-Iraq War did in RL.
It would have served to boost the Mullah government's popularity at home, yes. Long-run, this has massive butterflies in Isreali politics; Labor likely holds on power for longer.
It is also possible that Iran's presence in the Arab coalition during the Six-Day War would have resulted in Israel's destruction, as Iran has the largest and most well-equipt military in the Middle East during the 1960s in RL. Even though an earlier Iranian Revolution would have weakened the Iranian military to a point (I assume many of the military members connected to the Shah would have either been executed of forced into retirement by the government of Ayatollah Khomeini), Iran's military would have still been formidable.

I also feel that people such as Ali Shariati, Ebrahim Yazdi, Mostafa Chamran, and Mehdi Bazargan would have been major figures in the new Iranian government in this TL.
5  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: WI: Shah of Iran Overhrown in 1963 on: April 03, 2017, 04:40:00 am
This, if it occurs, will be a headache for whoever is President during this time.
I agree. I think that Iran would initially have descended into open conflict between the left-wing and the religious factions if the Shah was overthrown in 1963 that might have lasted into the late 1960s. I also feel that Ayatollah Khomenei would have joined the Arab Coalition in the 1967 Six Day War despite Iran's religious and ideological differences with the Arab states. Having Iran intervene in the war on the side of the Arabs definitely would have denied Israel a victory in the war and would have likely convinced the Iranian people to support their new government much like how the Iran-Iraq War did in RL.
6  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: WI: Shah of Iran Overhrown in 1963 on: April 02, 2017, 09:48:00 am
Does anyone want to take on this scenario, or is it a bit far-fetched?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How will Donald Trump be remembered in 2066? on: April 02, 2017, 09:46:35 am
He'll be on historian's lists of the worst presidents in US history, alongside James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, Franklin Pierce, Millard Fillmore, and Warren G. Harding.

The worst of the worst.
I agree. Trump is a pretty horrible President overall with a flawed domestic policy and a reckless foreign policy, as I feel that Trump will launch military strikes against Iran and North Korea within the coming months in addition to stepping up US presence in the Yemen Civil War. He will probably be in the bottom 10 US Presidents when all is asaid and done. Hillary Clinton probably wouldn't have been much better though, as she would have increased US presence in the Syrian Civil War and would have ramped up tensions with Russia that could have eventually lead to a confrontation with both countries (I know Putin is an brutal autocrat and does not respect human rights, but our hands are kind of tied due to the fact that Russia is a nuclear-armed state and could easily retaliate against the US militarily). The only area in which Clinton was markedly superior to Trump IMO  was on environmental policy and education policy. Still, I opposed both Clinton and Trump and felt they were both extremely flawed candidates and instead voted for Gary Johnson (I voted straight Democratic for all other offices though). 
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: NJ SEN 2000: Bob Franks beats Jon Corzine on: April 02, 2017, 07:32:51 am
I am thinking that Bob Franks gets re-elected in 2006 (as the Democrats didn't really have that strong of a bench if candidates that year other than Bob Melendez), but still dies in 2010 as in RL. I assume that Governor Christie probably appoints Tom Kean Jr. to Bob Frank's old seat. Tom Kean Jr. probably gets elected to a full term in 2012, but likely loses to Steve Fulop in 2018 due to President Trump's very high disapproval rating in New Jersey and general dissatisfaction with the policies pursued by the New Jersey Republican Party in recent years.
9  General Discussion / Alternative History / WI: Shah of Iran Overhrown in 1963 on: March 24, 2017, 11:38:35 am
In June of 1963, there was a series of major protests in Iran due to imprisoning of Ayatollah Khomeini and in response to the policies implemented by the Shah through the "White Revolution". Ultimately, the protests were crushed by the Iranian military and forces loyal to the Shah, but assuming that they weren't and instead increased in intensity to the point in which the Shah was forced to abdicate and ultimately be replaced as the leader of Iran by Ayatollah Khomeini, how do you think Iranian politics would have played out?
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bill de Blasio's floor on: March 19, 2017, 01:02:18 pm
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The ban just enacted includes legal US residents on: January 31, 2017, 08:38:57 am
If a person fled the Iran in the 70's or 80's to escape the mullahs, say to the U.K. or France, that person would still have Iranian citizenship and would be barred from stepping foot on US soil.

Completely stupid.

My cousin fits that mold exactly. As of now, he can't visit us because he's a dual UK-Iranian citizen.

What the  is going on here?
How would the ban impact Iranians with dual US-Iranian citizenship? The reason I ask is because I am friends with an Iranian-American woman whose parents (who did/still support the Iranian Revolution and participated in it) came to the US around 1984 or '85 due to the Iran-Iraq War (her father served in the war and was present during Operation Beit ol-Moqaddas). My friends has also travelled to Iran 3 times to visit her family, most recently in early 2016.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Have the Democrats lost the White vote forever? on: January 27, 2017, 09:18:41 am
When is the last time the Democrats won the white vote in the first place?  1964?
More likely 1944 or 1948 if I had to guess.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: January 12, 2017, 08:11:52 pm
2020 (Trump vs. Harris):

Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 311 EV (52%)
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 227 EV (46%)
Others: 0 Ev (2%)

Basically, we end up with a map for 2020 with the Republicans making gains in the Midwest, Appalachia, and the Northeast and the Democrats doing well in the Southeast and Southwest.
Unless something radical happens to the country in the next 4 years, most of this is very unlikely (i.e. Republican Florida and Democratic Georgia and North Carolina).

Yeah, how the hell does Arizona and Texas go to the Dems while Florida stays Republican?

As someone from Florida, I could see Trump winning Florida (while still losing the election, NC, and maybe GA) 1. by being a hardliner on Cuba, earning the Cuban-American vote, 2. by sticking close to Israel, helping him with Jewish voters, and 3. benefitting from an unpopular Democrat elected governor in 2018.
All that being said, it would still be pretty crazy if that happened, but hey, so was the idea of President Trump.
That is why I had Trump still holding onto Florida in 2020. Also, Kamala Harris doesn't really seem like she would be a good fit for Florida to be honest, so Trump might still win it against her.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: January 11, 2017, 07:32:27 pm
2020 (Trump vs. Harris):

Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 311 EV (52%)
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 227 EV (46%)
Others: 0 Ev (2%)

Basically, we end up with a map for 2020 with the Republicans making gains in the Midwest, Appalachia, and the Northeast and the Democrats doing well in the Southeast and Southwest.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: December 08, 2016, 12:30:14 pm


321-217
Chris Sununu/Ann Wagner vs John Bel Edwards/David Freudenthal?
16  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: WI: Iranian Green Movement More Successful? on: November 07, 2016, 11:34:22 am
I imagine a President or Shah Reza Pahlavi with a parliamentary system is the most likely outcome.
Your probably right. I bet that Reza Pahlavi would become the monarch and maybe Maryam Rajavi would become the prime minister of Iran if the Green Movement turned out to be more successful. They would both have little support as rulers outside of the northern part of Tehran and would likely slaughter any of the remaining supporters of the former Iranian government.
A Shah Reza Pahlavi would help bring in royalist military officials. Besides that, I'd guess we get a President Hussein-Ali Montazeri and a Prime Minister/Chancellor Yousef Saani.
Both Hussein-Ali Montazeri and Yousef Saani would be good choices for either Prime Minister or President of Iran and would have potentially built support for Reza Pahlavi's rule from the more traditional Iranian communities. Also, both are liberal Muslim clerics and would have supported establishing a more liberal interpretation of Islam in Iran, which might have played well with the younger generation of Iranians.
17  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: WI: Iranian Green Movement More Successful? on: November 04, 2016, 12:24:23 pm
I imagine a President or Shah Reza Pahlavi with a parliamentary system is the most likely outcome.
Your probably right. I bet that Reza Pahlavi would become the monarch and maybe Maryam Rajavi would become the prime minister of Iran if the Green Movement turned out to be more successful. They would both have little support as rulers outside of the northern part of Tehran and would likely slaughter any of the remaining supporters of the former Iranian government.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Competitive House Predictions: NH-01 to NY-22 on: October 29, 2016, 07:16:43 am
Going to be bold and say Democrats across the board. The East Coast is going to be a bloodbath, and I'll happily eat my hat with mustard if I'm proven wrong.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1996 Democratic Presidential Primaries if Clinton lost in 1992? on: October 28, 2016, 01:52:46 pm
Probably either Al Gore or John Kerry.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who are you rooting for to win Utah? on: October 21, 2016, 10:33:40 am
Technically Johnson, but McMuffin.  Anyone not Trump or Hillary. That goes for any of the 50 states and DC.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: Al D'Amato vrs j.f.k jr. on: October 08, 2016, 03:07:49 pm
If they faced each other in the 1992 New York senate race, I feel that John F. Kennedy Jr. would likely defeat Al D'Amato by about a 5% margin. 
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Record longest serving senators: Your least favorite on: September 29, 2016, 11:09:55 am
Thurmond and Byrd.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Iran vs Saudi Arabia on: September 26, 2016, 10:50:05 am
Both are awful and disgusting, but still prefer Iran. Saudia Arabia is terrible with their crazy ideology of islam and a sponsor of terrorism.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: FDR vs Trump 2016 on: September 14, 2016, 11:43:21 am
FDR obliterates Trump in a 50 state landslide.
Trump would only win Alabama, West Virginia, and Oklahoma against FDR.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Thurmond 1948/Johnson 1964 voter on: September 14, 2016, 08:16:37 am
A Southern Democrat who changed their views on Civil Rights for African Americans sometime in the 1950s.
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 97


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines