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March 04, 2015, 07:17:18 pm
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Question about West Virginia's Republican primary results on: March 03, 2015, 02:53:20 pm
Had Rick Santorum stayed in the race, would he have won the West Virginia primary?
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Lief Reservoir of Simple Truths and Smart One-Liners on: March 02, 2015, 07:59:10 pm
The entire country is pretty much Republican. The most watched news network is Fox. The most listened to talk radio show is Rush Limbaugh. There are 50 Governors, only 18 of them are Democrats. The Republicans just gained more seats in the House and Senate than they have had in decades.

The entire country is pretty much Republican, which is why the Republicans haven't comfortably won a presidential election since 1988! It all makes sense now.
Even though the Republicans have issues on the Presidential level, they are actually quite strong on the State and Congressional level at this point in time. The only areas of the country where the Democrats are that strong on those levels are the East and West coast and some of the more urban areas. In addition, most people generally support the conservative position on a majority issues with the exception of economic issues such as reducing benefits from programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, taxing the rich and the minimum wage and also on certain social issues such as gay marriage and marijuana legalization. The reason as to why I added Reaganfan's post to the thread was because he made some valid points pointing out that the conservative policies and ideals that the Republican Party espouses are widely-accepted in most of the country.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Midterm election issues since 1934 on: March 02, 2015, 02:29:46 pm
The Contract with America was not a big issue in 1994; exit poll's show only a quarter of Americans ever heard of it, and the majority of those who had heard of it voted Democratic. The real issues of that year were health care and gun control. If the Republicans had campaigned on the Contract, I doubt they would have won nearly as well.

1982 also had the "nuclear freeze" phenomenon, which evaporated as soon as it appeared.

The Gulf War was surprisingly not a big part of 1990, it was mostly the economic decay of the time.

I would add education to 1998, unemployment to 1986, minimum wage to 2006, and inflation to 1970. Otherwise your list is fairly good.

Inflation was less then 6% in 1970 which isnt that bad. The 1994 Republican Revolution Documentary said every Republican signed it and the Contract was hung in many polling places. Wasn't the unemployment in 1986 lowest since 1979.



6% was more than the public had seen for a while, the crisis had begun. I don't know what documentary you refer too. Yes, GOP congressional candidates signed it, but it was nonetheless ignored by the major media until the 104th Congress was inaugurated. And again, 1994 exit polls showed only a quarter ever heard of it and most who did voted Democratic. As for 1986, I meant to say rise in poverty and decline in living standard.


Living standards did not decline in 1986,  the economy was the best in 1986 since probably 1973 and the poverty rate in 1986 was lowest in 5 years(http://www.nytimes.com/1986/08/27/us/poverty-rate-down-slightly-in-1985-level-of-81.html).   Living standards didnt start to decline until around 2002 or 2003. And poverty consistently went down from Reagan (From 1983 on) to the end of Clinton's term and started rising again when Bush JR took office

Reagan early that year signed the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act, then the most draconian austerity measure in U.S. history.

Here are poberty rates by year:
1975 12.3%
1976 11.8
1977 11.6
1978 11.4
1979 11.7
1980 13.0
1981 14.0
1982 15.0
1983 15.2
1984 14.4
1985 14.0
1986 13.6
1987 13.4
1988  13.0
1989  12.8
1990 13.5

So, yes, poverty was high under Reagan, although somewhat lower in 1986.

To me that was more due to the early 80s reccession which had resulted in the worst economy since the Depression at the team. The Horrid economy which began in the early 70s peaked in around Jan 1983. As you can see poverty rates started to go down once the economy started to build steam.

Poverty rates go down due to the economy getting better

Povert rates go up due to the economy getting worse
Good point. It can also be argued that another reason why the poverty rate was relatively high in the 1980s was due to the increased usage of drugs such as cocaine and crystal meth and the rise in single parent households.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which state is most likely to vote for only one party over the next century? on: March 02, 2015, 02:03:21 pm
Democrats:
New York
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Maryland

Republicans:
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
Oklahoma
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Massachusetts trends on: March 02, 2015, 01:57:27 pm
From 1948 to 1996, Massachusetts used to be more D than New York. Nowadays, both states are equally D.

However, Massachusetts doesn't elect Republican representatives because there is no strong spatial concentration of party strengh.
In New York, there are some Republican districts in the countryside. NYC is more than 80% Democratic.
It's also possible that New York might vote more Democratic than Massachusetts in 2016, especially with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Describe a Charlie Crist (R)/Charlie Crist (I)/Charlie Crist (D) voter on: March 02, 2015, 12:46:57 pm
*raises hand*
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - March 2015 on: March 01, 2015, 09:13:36 pm
Scott Walker at this point, though Jeb Bush would have a chance if Walker flounders as a candidate.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Lief Reservoir of Simple Truths and Smart One-Liners on: February 28, 2015, 11:00:44 am
The entire country is pretty much Republican. The most watched news network is Fox. The most listened to talk radio show is Rush Limbaugh. There are 50 Governors, only 18 of them are Democrats. The Republicans just gained more seats in the House and Senate than they have had in decades.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which state do you think would vote Democratic first: Arizona or Georgia? on: February 28, 2015, 10:57:42 am
AZ is a lot less religious and racially polarized than Georgia. Plus it has a libertarian streak like Colorado so it can be a pretty socially liberal state. Gay marriage and pot could pass in AZ if it was a referendum, not so much in GA.
I might be wrong, but didn't Doug Ducy's anti-gay rights position help him to a point in the Arizona Gubernatorial election last year?
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Midterm election issues since 1934 on: February 27, 2015, 11:20:54 am
You list looks pretty good for the most part, though I added a few things to it (which are in bold):

1934- Great Depression, Referendum on New Deal
1938- Unemployment going back up to 18% , FDR court packing scheme,
1942- World War 2, The Politics of Wartime Rationing
1946- Beginning of the Cold War, Postwar Economic Reconversion
1950-  China Falling to Communists,  Korean War,  Soviet Nuke Test
1954- McCarthyism, Beginnings of Civil Rights Movement
1958- Recession, Sputnik, Civil Rights
1962- Civil Rights, Cuba
1966- Vietnam War, Civil Rights, The Great Society Social Programs
1970- Vietnam War, Civil Rights (specifically the issue of desegregation busing)
1974-  Watergate, Inflation
1978- Bad Economy, Energy Crises
1982- Horrendous Economy, Millatery Spending
1986- Iran-Contra, Good Economy, Winding Down of the Cold War, High Budget Deficit
1990- Gulf War, Economy, Taxes
1994- Contract With America, Clinton Tax Increases, Clinton Healthcare Plan
1998- Clinton's Impeachment, Budget Surplus and Good Economy
2002- War on Terrorism, Iraq Invasion
2006- Iraq War, Opposition to Bush
2010- Horrendous Ecomomy , Deficits, Obamacare
2014- Obamacare, Isis
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP primary in Indiana on: February 25, 2015, 04:08:56 pm
Probably Rand Paul or Scott Walker.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: PA-Muhlenberg College/Morning Call: Toomey up 2 on generic D on: February 25, 2015, 02:26:28 pm
The G O P has changed the rules in terms of funding the department of homeland security and it is dividing the blue state GOP like Kirk from the red state GOP like Blunt. This race will be the tipper of the election, Dems have a chance to win OH, IL, WI, Pa and pick up MO or NH or FL in the quest for a 51-49 senate control and picking off 4-5 incumbants.
I do agree that Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and possibly Ohio (if Ted Strickland runs and/or if Rob Portman gets selected as the Republican VP nominee) are in play for the Democrats, whereas Nevada and Colorado are in play for the Republican. I think that Marco Rubio should be ok for now, as the Florida Democrats don't have a strong bench of candidates and feel that Roy Blunt is pretty safe in his re-election bid, as he is leading Jason Kander by 13 points.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which NYC Republican can defeat Bill De Blasio in 2017? on: February 25, 2015, 02:16:35 pm
I don't see any Republican winning the mayoral election in NYC anytime soon. The Democratic Party is so strong in NYC that even Hugo Chavez or Joseph Stalin could have won so long as there was a "D" after their names.

I wouldn't be so optimistic about democrats there. There's going to be another republican mayor of NYC, but I see no way for de blasio to lose at this point.
Eventually a Republican will be elected NYC mayor, but probably not until the later part of the 2020s or early 2030s.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Democrats only: Opinion of this 2016 scenario on: February 25, 2015, 12:54:59 pm
I rather see Mitch and Gary elected. I think Democratic senators from deep south are finished.

Funnily, Gary may be way too conservative to win a New Orleans mayoral election.

With Clinton's help and a diaper-loving opponent, Mary may stand a chance.
Since David Vitter stands a good chance at being elected Governor of Louisiana in 2015, I think that a more likely race would be Mary Landrieu vs Jeff Landry. I think that Landrieu could do better than in 2014 and might win the Jungle Primary but not by enough to avoid the runoff election. In the runoff election, I can see Landry winning 51-49 or 52-48 against Landreiu when all is said and done.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Which NYC Republican can defeat Bill De Blasio in 2017? on: February 25, 2015, 12:47:26 pm
I don't see any Republican winning the mayoral election in NYC anytime soon. The Democratic Party is so strong in NYC that even Hugo Chavez or Joseph Stalin could have won so long as there was a "D" after their names.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA: LG. Northam planning on running for Governor on: February 25, 2015, 12:42:38 pm
Who do the Republicans really have in New Jersey that would be acceptable Gubernatorial candidates? My guess is Steven Fulop takes it.
The only Republican candidate who is strong enough win the nomination is Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno, but her scandals are just as bad as Chris Christie's are and her record as Lieutenant Governor is weak at best. In the end, I would expect Steven Fulop to defeat her handily, maybe with over 60% of the vote.
17  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Iggy Azalea on: February 25, 2015, 08:01:36 am
bad at rapping, but good at being very attractive
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: VA: LG. Northam planning on running for Governor on: February 25, 2015, 07:50:58 am
I doubt that the Democrats can hold onto the VA governorship in 2017, as the Republicans have a decent bench of candidates such as Ed Gillespie, Bill Bolling and Barbara Comstock. In addition, Hillary Clinton's Presidency could likely be facing a backlash by then that could hurt the Democrats chances down the ballot.

While we are still on the subject of the 2017 Gubernatorial races, I think that the Democrats will easily pick up the NJ governorship in 2017 regardless of Hillary Clinton's popularity. Much like the VA Republicans, the NJ Democrats have a strong bench of candidates such as Steve Fulop, Frank Pallone and Steve Sweeney. In addition, Chris Christie's popularity might still be low in 2017, so the Democrats can use that as a campaign issue and tie whoever the Republicans nominate to him.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Jeb Bush or Scott Walker on: February 25, 2015, 07:27:30 am
Ideologically, I am much closer to Jeb Bush, but I would expect Scott Walker to have an easy path to the Republican nomination due to the fact that he can appeal to both conservatives and moderates and is a much fresher candidate than Bush.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans only: Choose from just the "formally exploring" candidates. on: February 24, 2015, 07:08:20 pm
1. Jeb Bush
2. Chris Christie
3. Lindsey Graham
4. George Pataki
5. Scott Walker
6. Rick Perry
7. Ben Carson
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 election thrown into congress on: February 24, 2015, 02:34:03 pm
Who would Governor John Rowland have appointed to Joe Leiberman's Senate seat?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Most Important Election Issues in every Election Since 1932 on: February 24, 2015, 08:25:32 am
You list seems about right, though I would add Civil Rights and the Cold War to 1960 and maybe the economic recovery as an issue in the 2012 election.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Primary candidates that lost their home states on: February 24, 2015, 08:19:15 am
I also heard that Chris Christie could potentially end up losing the NJ primary to Scott Walker in 2016 if his unpopular continues to increase.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will we have a President who served in Vietnam? on: February 23, 2015, 06:16:45 am
If Clinton choses not to run. In that scenario, I support OMalley due to his tenure as mayor of Baltimore.
Martin O' Malley was 10 when the Vietnam War ended, so he was way too young to have served during the war (though some of his relatives might have served in Vietnam).
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will New Jersey become competitive? on: February 23, 2015, 06:12:05 am
I know that Hillary Clinton will probably carry NJ by a comfortable margin in 2016 (maybe with 60% of the vote), but assuming that Clinton steps down in 2020 and is succeeded by Rand Paul, could he win the state in his 2024 re-election bid if his approval ratings are high enough and if his Democratic opponent is weak?
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