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October 25, 2014, 07:46:23 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: List of Alternate Presidents on: October 23, 2014, 09:13:34 am
33.  Harry Truman (D-MO) / Alben Barkley (D-KY); 1945-1949
34.  Thomas Dewey (R-NY) / Earl Warren (R-CA); 1949-1953
35.  Franklin Roosevelt, Jr. (D-NY) / Estes Kefauver (D-TN); 1953-1955 [1]
36.  Estes Kefauver (D-TN) / Hubert Humphrey (D-MN); 1955-1961

37.  Prescott Bush (R-CT) / Richard Nixon (R-CA); 1961-1969
38.  Hubert Humphrey (D-MN) / Henry "Scoop" Jackson (D-WA); 1969-1977
39.  Henry "Scoop" Jackson (D-WA) / Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX); 1977-1978 [2]
40.  Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) / Tip O'Neil (D-MA); 1978-1981  

41.  George H.W. Bush (R-TX) / Howard Baker (R-TN); 1981-1989
42.  Bill Clinton (D-AR) / Mario Cuomo (D-NY); 1989-1993
43.  Bob Dole (R-KS) / Donald Rumsfeld (R-IL); 1993-2001
44.  Donald Rumsfeld (R-IL) / George Allen (R-VA); 2001-2005

45.  John Kerry (D-MA) / Bill Richardson (D-NM); 2005-2013
46.  Mitt Romney (R-MA) / John McCain (R-AZ); 2013-present

[1] President Roosevelt is assassinated in New York City on March 3, 1955.  Vice President Estes Kefauver assumes office; Hubert Humphrey is elected VP alongside Kefauver in 1956.  

[2] President Jackson dies in Washington on October 23, 1978 following a stroke.  Vice President Lloyd Bentsen assumes office; the Senate confirms Speaker of the House Tip O'Neil as Vice President on November 15, 1978.  
That looks like a pretty good list! BTW, does Strom Thurmond mount a third-party bid against President Estes Kefauver in 1956 over the Civil Rights issue?
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which "Clinton but not Obama" states could Hillary carry in 2016? on: October 23, 2014, 06:39:27 am
Maybe Missouri and Arkansas, though both are a bit of a stretch given how far to the right they have trended over the past few years. In addition, even though Hillary Clinton will likely lose the other states listed, her margins in each will be somewhat higher than Obama's (i.e. Instead if only getting 35% if the vote in West Virginia, Hillary Clinton might get closer to 45%).
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: The first election in which each media was used for campaigning on: October 21, 2014, 03:13:26 pm
The first Presidential Election in which radio was used was 1920, as KDKA (the first commercial station) broadcasted the election returns as part of their inaugural broadcast. Radio did not play a big part until the 1928 election however, as both Herbert Hoover and Al Smith used radio as an important venue to give campaign speeches and policy proposals in a way that was much larger than in earlier elections.

The first use of TV in election coverage came about in 1940, as NBC broadcasted most of the Republican National Convention (and filmed portions of the Democratic Convention the day after it ended) along with coverage of President Roosevelt at a Democratic rally in Madison Square Garden on October 28, 1940 and live coverage of the election results as they came in. The first Presidential ads did not appear on TV until 1952 and weren't perfected until the 1960 Election however.

As for internet coverage of Presidential Elections, the first coverage did not appear until 1996 (excluding the earlier usenet posts on the 1980 and 1984 elections), but was mainly based upon websites for the candidates and did not allow for individual users to comment on the candidates and their platforms. It wasn't until 2004 that we saw user-oriented Presidential Election coverage appear on the internet, as that year numerous political blogs and sites such as Atlas Forum began to become popular and more widely-accepted as legitimate sources for campaign information.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Three Term Vice President on: October 20, 2014, 01:06:08 pm
This could've happened to George Clinton, however, he died prior to the 1812 Election.
If he had lived and got elected President in 1816 in James Monroe's place, then we would have had a President Clinton 166 years earlier.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which state would Hillary win by the largest margin (in the general election)? on: October 19, 2014, 03:44:10 pm
Probably New York, as I can see Hillary Clinton potentially getting in the low 60s (around 67 or 68%) in New York due to her home state effect. In addition, if the Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate (i.e. Chris Christie, Jeb Bush or Jon Huntsman), I could see Vermont trend slightly towards the Republicans (i.e. instead of the Republicans getting 33% of the vote, they might get closer to 35 or 36%).
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Andrew Cuomo's margin of victory on: October 16, 2014, 05:31:58 pm
Cuomo: 62%
Astorino: 28%
Hawkins: 10%
7  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: posters you find entertaining on: October 16, 2014, 05:21:58 pm
BRTD
Guntaker
The Obamanation
Lief
HockeyDude
Angus
Gramps
Keystone Phil
OldiesFreak1854
TNF
Barbag
Opebo
Snowstalker
Dixiecrat
Grumps
Angus
Mechaman
Krazen1211
WalterMitty
JoshGreen
King
Bushie
Maistre
KCDem
Bacon King
Cathcon
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What's the oldest book you own ? on: October 16, 2014, 05:14:16 pm
My oldest book is actually a homemade newspaper scrapbook that was originally a farm ledger in the early 1800s. Most of the newspaper articles clipped into it range from the 1880s up until about 1910 or so. I received that particular book from my aunt in 2008. In addition, prior to Hurricane Sandy I had a history book from the 1870s discussing the history of the civil war, but the storm destroyed it. Further old books that I own include two books from 1942 and 1944 discussing the then-cutting-edge technology behind TV and the progress behind TV programming at the time (kind of ironic considering that there were less than 10,000 TV's in use at the time). I also have a book about General Wainwright from 1946 that belonged to my mom's uncle when he was a kid.

I also have a number of old magazines ranging from the 1940s-1970s. Some of the more notable ones are a couple editions of Liberty Magazine and The American Legion Magazine from 1946 and '47 and an issue of Life Magazine from September 16, 1957 (the featured article discusses the Little Rock Integration Crisis and President Eisenhower's reaction to it).
9  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Simple Truths Silver Mine on: October 16, 2014, 04:58:56 pm
Always good to have someone (competent) who isn't beholden to either major party.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who has a better chance of winning? on: October 16, 2014, 04:48:14 pm
It's hard to say. Ernst and Gardner, for however off-the-rails their political beliefs might be, might just be the two best Senate candidates the Republicans have run in the last three cycles.

Tentatively, I'll go for Ernst. Udall hasn't managed to piss away his recognition advantage entirely, and besides, I think someone who's just a bad campaigner is far preferable to someone who is legitimately a useless, arrogant twit.
I never really thought that Cory Gardner was all that extreme. He seems to be more of a generic Republican than anything in my opinion.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which map is more likely by 2024? on: October 16, 2014, 08:50:55 am
We don't know if any of those maps will be accurate. For all we know a map with the Democrats sweeping the South and one with the Republicans sweeping the Northeast and West Coast could be accurate by 2024.
Of course, but its fun to speculate.
That's part of the fun with these threads.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rand Paul meets with NAACP and Urban League on: October 15, 2014, 02:19:12 pm
LOL at the top comment on the article:

Quote
The black community has sold their soul(s) to the Devil, by trading one form of slavery for another.

Here's your 2016 Presidential ticket.

Ted Cruz would do well to unite the base early. All the broken fractions of the Republican party could begin to unite under a Cruz/West ticket, with Rand Paul as the Secretary of the Treasury; he can do what he damn well wants to the Reserve and IRS (Ron Paul could be his personal assistant); Trey Gowdy as Attorney General, restore the rule of law; John Bolton as Secretary of State, he could build our foreign alliances back up and tell our enemies where to get off; Sara Palin as the Secretary of Energy, "Drill Baby Drill!". Scott Walker as Secretary of Labor, gut the unions, Right to Work in every state; Herman Cain Secretary of Commerce, deregulate everything; Ben Carson Secretary of Health and Human Service, end the welfare faction of the USA; David Barton Secretary of Education, get rid of Common Core.

Secretary to the U.N. NO ONE

These are going to be the people who vote in GOP primaries. Cheesy
That is unfortunately what Ted Cruz's cabinet might look like if he won actually.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Which map is more likely by 2024? on: October 15, 2014, 01:12:52 pm
We don't know if any of those maps will be accurate. For all we know a map with the Democrats sweeping the South and one with the Republicans sweeping the Northeast and West Coast could be accurate by 2024.
14  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you consider the preceding poster a liberal, a moderate, or a conservative? on: October 14, 2014, 09:08:07 am
Somewhat liberal.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Will Inhofe and Lankford surpass the 70 percent mark in Oklahoma? on: October 12, 2014, 03:48:49 pm
I don't think that either will, though James Lankford will probably end up doing a few points better that Jim Inhofe. The reason why Lankford might do better is because he is (comparatively speaking) more moderate than Inhofe and also his opponent, Constance Johnson, is a bit too liberal for Oklahoma. The end results could possibly be 60% for Inhofe and 65% for Lankford.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could Jeb Bush win Virginia against Hillary Clinton? on: October 12, 2014, 12:52:21 pm
He could potentially win it, but Hillary Clinton would be slightly favored at first.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Trend Map on: October 12, 2014, 12:51:07 pm

My best guess is that the 2016 trend map would show the South trending towards the Democrats and the Midwest, Great Plains and parts of the Northeast and West Coast trending more towards the Republicans. The trend map might actually look a bit like the results of the 1976 election.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who would YOU vote for in South Dakota? on: October 12, 2014, 11:44:08 am
Pressler would be a far better Senator than Rounds or Weiland, so him.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Who was the most recent presidential loser when you were born? on: October 09, 2014, 06:48:36 pm
Me:George H.W. Bush
Mom: Adlai Stevenson
Dad: Adlai Stevenson
Maternal Grandmother: John Davis
Maternal Grandfather: James Cox
Maternal Great-grandmother: William Jennings Bryan
Maternal Great-grandfather: William Jennings Bryan
20  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to demod politicus on: October 09, 2014, 05:03:55 pm
These threads about banning/demoding certain members of the forum are akin to a virtual pissing contest in a way.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in South Dakota? on: October 09, 2014, 04:51:48 pm
Rounds will probably end up winning by a less than expected margin.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win the Illinois gubernatorial election? (Oct. 2014) on: October 09, 2014, 04:49:36 pm
23  General Discussion / Religion & Philosophy / Re: Christianity on: October 09, 2014, 08:02:41 am
My opinion of Christianity is very high.  My opinion of many self-professed Christians is not as high.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Your overall race ratings for Senatorial Races on: October 09, 2014, 07:59:34 am
Safe D
Rhode Island
Delaware
New Mexico
Illinois
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Hawaii
Virginia
Oregon

Likely D
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire


Lean D
None

Pure Toss-Up
Louisiana
Alaska
Arkansas
Iowa
North Carolina
Colorado
Kansas

Lean R
Kentucky
Georgia (Due to runoff election)

Likely R
South Dakota

Safe R
West Virginia
Montana

Tennessee
Nebraska
Maine
Texas
Mississippi
South Carolina (R)
South Carolina (S)
Oklahoma (R)
Oklahoma (S)
Idaho
Wyoming
Alabama
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Next six presidents on: October 09, 2014, 07:46:50 am
1. Hillary Clinton (2017-2021) (Hillary Clinton decides to step down after one term in office)
2. Rand Paul (2021-2029)
3. Rand Paul's Vice President (2029-2033)
4. Unknown Democrat (2033-2041) (Maybe someone first elected in the 2010s or early 2020s)

After 2040, it begins to become next to impossible to predict who could become president.
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