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January 29, 2015, 07:24:34 am
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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Napoleon Memorial Thread #RIP on: January 28, 2015, 08:00:22 am
I'm gonna change back to D-MN so no one confuses it with memorializing this creep.
I though the reason you had a D-NY avatar was because of something to to with Hillary Clinton and her impending Presidential campaign.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When Will DC Become Competitive? on: January 27, 2015, 06:03:33 pm
I suppose it could drift toward 70/30 Dem, but that 70% is probably unbreakable in a general election unless the Dem candidate is filmed committing a violent crime.  
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Should I change my avatar? on: January 26, 2015, 06:59:32 pm
D-MO, just like Opebo, wifikitten, KCDem and semocrat08.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Challenge: Describe a 2000-2004 Bush, 2008 Obama, 2012 Romney Voter? on: January 26, 2015, 09:39:16 am
That's sort of like my mom actually (though she voted for McCain in 2008 and Obama in 2012).
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Of the 5 candidates who have declared, who would do best? on: January 25, 2015, 12:17:52 pm
Vermin Supreme should pick Basil Marceaux as his running mate. That would be the funniest Presidential ticket ever IMO.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Here's my prediction. on: January 25, 2015, 12:14:54 pm
2016 : I predict that Governor Scott Walker will win the election. Why ?

1. Obama Fatigue..... Democrat or Republican, you got to admit that Obama is damaged goods. So Probably Republicans will present their candidate as new and fresh and that leads me to the second one.

2. Hillary Clinton. Now I have a lot of respect for her. But her age and her connections to Obama kind of puts her in a disadvantage compared to Marco Rubio should he decide to run. And  don't forget about the Benghazi thing.

3. Governing Experience. One of the many reasons why we have dysfunction in Washington is because Obama with all due respect has no Governing record. Governor Walker on the other hand has a strong governing record.

4. The Republican Party will be much more united then in 2012. In 2012, Romney came out of it bruised and tattered thanks to all the crazy canidates out their. I think that the Tea Party base will warm up to Walker more.

What do you guys think ? And can anyone provide a map ? And who thinks should be Walker's running mate should he run ?


No, way will Scott Walker win the election over Hilary.  If Jeb has problems on common core, so will Scott Walker.  He has vastly had problems with the teacher's union in pension reform.  Union voters will be energized to defeat Scott Walker.  It will be jEB V hILLARY
I am leaning towards Jeb Bush winning the Republican nomination as well at this point in time. The two tickets in 2016 could very well be Hillary Clinton/Martin Heinrich and Jeb Bush/Nikki Haley
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Theodore Roosevelt on: January 25, 2015, 11:07:29 am
FF (not a hack).  One of our best presidents.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sarah Palin: "Of course" interested in 2016 White House bid on: January 25, 2015, 09:00:41 am
Palin/Cruz 2016!!!!
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Senate seats in play in 2016 on: January 24, 2015, 11:15:45 am
We already been over this, this race is tossup, the rating of Lean R, is misleading.  We have a 50/50 chance at this race.

And I will believe, not a PPP, but a Quinnepiac poll, when is due.



This is my dream map scenario in 2016
That actually looks like a plausible 2016 Senate map, though I believe that the Democrats have a much better shot at picking up Florida, North Carolina and Arizona than they do in Ohio.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Best Case Scenarios for both parties on: January 23, 2015, 07:06:54 pm
GOP best case (in 2016):


DEM best case (in 2016):


Colorado was a mistake I'm guessing?

Yes, definitely was.  I'll fix that.
Then again Hillary Clinton isn't polling that great in Colorado when compared to Obama, so it might be a Republican pick up in 2016.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Rubio vs Clinton on: January 23, 2015, 07:03:11 pm
Rubio has proven he's a lightweight time and time again. Hillary wins easily, Obama 08 + MO.



Clinton - 369
Rubio - 169

Can you at least TRY to be a bit more objective? I mean, seriously, but... Indiana? Nebraska's 2nd CD? Missouri? North Carolina? Colorado? ... Indiana was only a narrow victory for Obama because Obama was from neighboring IL and African American turnout was SKY HIGH... Obama lost the state by 10 points (!) in 2012. I can't see Hillary winning a state that Obama lost by 10 points despite the Obama coalition turning out for him in large numbers...

Barack Obama stayed away from Indiana and Missouri because of Senate races that were worth more than the 21 electoral votes of those two states marginal in 2008.
He gave up 21 electoral votes... for no reason?

Are you daft?
It's not that unusual for Presidential candidates to ignore states that they have a legitimate chance to carry. For example, Bill Clinton actually did the same thing in 1996 that Obama did in 2012. Polling from Septemb er of that year had him ahead in Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, South Dakota, Colorado and Montana, but Clinton instead decided to focus on winning Florida and Arizona, two states that he wanted to win badly and also to help several Democratic Senate candidates in tight races.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Santorum: Cruz & Paul are "bomb throwers" with no accomplishments on: January 22, 2015, 11:50:02 am
I actually agree with Rick Santorum. Ted Cruz is a bomb thrower with no accomplishments.

And Mike Huckabee, besides his social views, is actually a good Republican.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: How will Larry Hogan (R-MD) and Charlie Baker (R-MA) do as governors? on: January 21, 2015, 06:32:39 pm
Baker will probably have an easy reelection, though Hogan will have a much tougher fight on his hands. It may even be in his best interest to not even run for reelection and instead run for the open senate seat if Mikulski retires.

That's ridiculous. 1st of all, Mikulski's seat is up in 2016, so I think you meant to say Cardin's. Do you really think Hogan will have an easier race for Senate than for Governor? Most of Hogan's campaigning was around state-based issues, and the reasons why he was elected Governor have nothing to do with national politics. There's value in incumbancy, remember. Hogan will lose that value if he runs for Senate.
And I hope you didn't mean 2016, because presidential-year turnout will never elect a Republican in Maryland.
Actually I daresay the right "type" of Republican could win in Maryland in a great Republican Presidential year.

That would be a sign of a realignment if it happened.  Maybe if Rand Paul was running and lost MD by only 5%.  Otherwise, I just can't see it.  Maryland is way too urban to do the split ticket Senate thing.
I meant as a Senator, not Presidential election. Also I had meant to say the person would most likely be an incumbent Senator.


I didn't mean to say a hypothetically perfect Republican would never win Maryland. I meant in reality, in Earth-616, there are 0 Republicans in Maryland who could a: get elected to the Senate in a midterm and then b: win reelection.
2018 will be a good year for Republicans imo. I feel like Hogan can at least hold his numbers from last year.

In terms of the senate, 2016 is sfae Dem, 2018 is probably at least lean Dem.
Maybe Boyd Rutherford will pull a Michael Steele and run for Senate in 2018 if he proves to be a popular Lieutenant Governor.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Which Party would these people be for today on: January 21, 2015, 01:39:55 pm
Barry Goldwater: Libertarian-leaning Republican (Barry Goldwater would probably support Rand Paul in 2016)
Henry "Scoop" Jackson: Moderate Democrat (Though I believe he would have supported Ronald Reagan in 1984 and George W. Bush in 2004 due to the fact that Walter Mondale and John Kerry weren't that strong on national defense issues)
Dwight Eisenhower: Liberal Republican (Probably close to Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan ideologically)
Joe McCarthy: Far-right Republican (Joe McCarthy would probably be similar ideologically to Ted Cruz, Steve King or Allen West)
Robert Taft: Libertarian-leaning Republican (Like Barry Goldwater, Robert Taft would probably be a strong supporter of Rand Paul in 2016)
Henry Wallace:
George Wallace: Independent (I can see George Wallace supporting Democratic Senators such as Joe Manchin, Mark Pryor and Mary Landreiu and Republican Presidential candidates such as Mike Huckabee)
John F. Kennedy: Moderate Democrat (I can easily see John F. Kennedy strongly supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016)
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Hardest one yet: Describe a Wallace '68/McGovern '72 voter on: January 21, 2015, 01:25:29 pm
A Poor, Southern, Racist, White Democrat.

The Person liked Wallace for his populism and mostly his segregation views but in 1972, he or she couldn't get around to the idea of  voting for Nixon because Nixon was a Republican and represented the policies of big business and corporations up in the north.

However, the Democrat also thought McGovern represented his interests better by McGovern's populist economic policy for the poor.

Or just a person, who dis-regarded Wallace's racist, segregationist views and just voted for him because of his populism. This Person would probably be a Northern, Blue Collar, Unionized Worker.

Also maybe an Anti-War activist. Arguably, Wallace was the most anti- Vietnam war candidate in 1968. 
That's actually interesting that George Wallace was the most-anti-Vietnam War candidate in 1968. I was always under the impression that he was the most hawkish of the three major candidates on Vietnam and national defense issues in general.
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of OC on: January 21, 2015, 07:55:02 am
MI, IL, ME, MA, MD, WI should flip with Stabenow, Baldwin, and Warren running.

I mentioned FL as well as OH because Brown will be running for reelection and he is good, unless he is picked for VP. But Brown or whoever replaces Nelson of FL can win without gubernatorial coattails.

This was on a thread of a Republican problem of being too southern.
I goaded him a bit in that thread actually.
17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Your 5 favorite banned posters on: January 21, 2015, 07:51:56 am
Mechaman
Opebo
TX Conservative Dem
Guntaker
Barfbag
18  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of smilio on: January 20, 2015, 06:53:28 pm
Pretty cool guy, definite FF.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Guess the next POTUS on: January 20, 2015, 05:36:47 pm
Probably Hillary.


Kasich Jeb Bush is my second bet.
20  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Happy Birthday, Snowstalker! on: January 20, 2015, 11:02:03 am
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1968: Kennedy-Nixon rematch on: January 20, 2015, 10:52:44 am
What is the story here?  No term limits?  JFK somehow loses the election in 64 and pulls a Cleveland in 68?
I think that Bobby Kennedy is the Democratic nomination in this scenario.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict the two tickets on: January 19, 2015, 08:21:37 pm
Democrats:
Clinton/Warner
Clinton/Kaine
Clinton/Brown
Clinton/Heinrich

Republicans:
Bush/Martinez
Bush/Scott
Bush/Walker
Bush/Haley
Bush/Walker

23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: List your preferred GOP primary field on: January 18, 2015, 01:26:17 pm
Jeb Bush
Mitt Romney
Chris Christie
Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Is the Republican's problem that they're too Southern? on: January 18, 2015, 01:18:09 pm
MI, IL, ME, MA, MD, WI should flip with Stabenow, Baldwin, and Warren running.

I mentioned FL as well as OH because Brown will be running for reelection and he is good, unless he is picked for VP. But Brown or whoever replaces Nelson of FL can win without gubernatorial coattails.
Out of all states that you mentioned, I only think that the Democrats could possibly win Illinois and Florida due to the fact that the Republicans are likely to do well in the 2018 midterm elections if Hillary Clinton is President. The Republicans could also make further gains in the 2018 gubernatorial races by picking up Colorado, Connecticut and maybe Alaska if they play their cards right.  


Again, I don't accept that, we will do well in MI, IL, WI, and MA, and MD and possibly ME because Baldwin, Stabenow, King, Cardin, and Warren will easilly be reelected. Just because it is a midterm, Obama will be out of office.

GOP picks up AK for sure,
Usilly, the party that controls the Presidency does poorly in midterm elections. I believe that the only midterm elections in which the party that controlled the Presidency gained seats were 1904, 1934, 1962, 1998 and 2002. Regardless of what Hillary Clinton does, I don't see her bucking the usual midterm election trend in 2018.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Good Post Gallery II on: January 18, 2015, 12:29:46 pm
1789: Not really a realignment, but the first alignment of the American electorate, in which Federalists were able to succeed by their support for the Constitution and with George Washington as their unofficial leader.
1800: Pretty obvious; Federalists never elected another president after this.
1828: Democratic Party forms and enjoys its first golden age in the years during and after Jackson's presidency, losing the presidency only once.
1860: Although Republicans had already replaced the Whigs as a major party, it was only with Lincoln's election and the Civil War that they sealed their dominance.
1932: The Democrats' second golden age, ushered in by the stock market crash in 1929 and the Great Depression.  Poor and working class voters become solidly Democratic, while blacks and Jews abandon the GOP in increasing numbers.  The two Republicans who are elected president (Ike and Nixon) are considered moderates.
1980: The South becomes solidly Republican at the national level as Reagan makes conservative politics more acceptable to a mainstream electorate, partially due to the malaise of Carter's presidency and the increasing strength of religious conservatives in the GOP.
1992: After 12 years of the GOP dominating the presidency and conservatism growing more popular, Democrats reassert their dominance with the election with the Clinton coalition of moderates, suburban women, and wealthy social liberals.

Partial/Regional Realignments
1824: The split within the old Republican party creates the conditions for the formation of new parties and for Jackson's election.
1856: While Democrats hold the presidency, the new Republicans supplant the Whig party as the major opposition once and for all.
1896: The Panic of 1893 and Bryan's radicalism reasserts Republican dominance, particularly in the Northern states.
1968: Wallace splits the Democratic vote and causes the party's base to collapse from underneath.  Nixon takes advantage of the split, along with demographic shifts, to put the South in play, and campaigns as a moderate who rejects both ideological extremes.  However, conservative Republicans are largely ignored until Reagan's election.

I could see a case for 2008, but I think it's still too early to tell.



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