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February 24, 2017, 09:41:36 pm
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: The ban just enacted includes legal US residents on: January 31, 2017, 08:38:57 am
If a person fled the Iran in the 70's or 80's to escape the mullahs, say to the U.K. or France, that person would still have Iranian citizenship and would be barred from stepping foot on US soil.

Completely stupid.

My cousin fits that mold exactly. As of now, he can't visit us because he's a dual UK-Iranian citizen.

What the  is going on here?
How would the ban impact Iranians with dual US-Iranian citizenship? The reason I ask is because I am friends with an Iranian-American woman whose parents (who did/still support the Iranian Revolution and participated in it) came to the US around 1984 or '85 due to the Iran-Iraq War (her father served in the war and was present during Operation Beit ol-Moqaddas). My friends has also travelled to Iran 3 times to visit her family, most recently in early 2016.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Have the Democrats lost the White vote forever? on: January 27, 2017, 09:18:41 am
When is the last time the Democrats won the white vote in the first place?  1964?
More likely 1944 or 1948 if I had to guess.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: January 12, 2017, 08:11:52 pm
2020 (Trump vs. Harris):

Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 311 EV (52%)
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 227 EV (46%)
Others: 0 Ev (2%)

Basically, we end up with a map for 2020 with the Republicans making gains in the Midwest, Appalachia, and the Northeast and the Democrats doing well in the Southeast and Southwest.
Unless something radical happens to the country in the next 4 years, most of this is very unlikely (i.e. Republican Florida and Democratic Georgia and North Carolina).

Yeah, how the hell does Arizona and Texas go to the Dems while Florida stays Republican?

As someone from Florida, I could see Trump winning Florida (while still losing the election, NC, and maybe GA) 1. by being a hardliner on Cuba, earning the Cuban-American vote, 2. by sticking close to Israel, helping him with Jewish voters, and 3. benefitting from an unpopular Democrat elected governor in 2018.
All that being said, it would still be pretty crazy if that happened, but hey, so was the idea of President Trump.
That is why I had Trump still holding onto Florida in 2020. Also, Kamala Harris doesn't really seem like she would be a good fit for Florida to be honest, so Trump might still win it against her.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: January 11, 2017, 07:32:27 pm
2020 (Trump vs. Harris):

Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 311 EV (52%)
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 227 EV (46%)
Others: 0 Ev (2%)

Basically, we end up with a map for 2020 with the Republicans making gains in the Midwest, Appalachia, and the Northeast and the Democrats doing well in the Southeast and Southwest.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: December 08, 2016, 12:30:14 pm


321-217
Chris Sununu/Ann Wagner vs John Bel Edwards/David Freudenthal?
6  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: WI: Iranian Green Movement More Successful? on: November 07, 2016, 11:34:22 am
I imagine a President or Shah Reza Pahlavi with a parliamentary system is the most likely outcome.
Your probably right. I bet that Reza Pahlavi would become the monarch and maybe Maryam Rajavi would become the prime minister of Iran if the Green Movement turned out to be more successful. They would both have little support as rulers outside of the northern part of Tehran and would likely slaughter any of the remaining supporters of the former Iranian government.
A Shah Reza Pahlavi would help bring in royalist military officials. Besides that, I'd guess we get a President Hussein-Ali Montazeri and a Prime Minister/Chancellor Yousef Saani.
Both Hussein-Ali Montazeri and Yousef Saani would be good choices for either Prime Minister or President of Iran and would have potentially built support for Reza Pahlavi's rule from the more traditional Iranian communities. Also, both are liberal Muslim clerics and would have supported establishing a more liberal interpretation of Islam in Iran, which might have played well with the younger generation of Iranians.
7  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: WI: Iranian Green Movement More Successful? on: November 04, 2016, 12:24:23 pm
I imagine a President or Shah Reza Pahlavi with a parliamentary system is the most likely outcome.
Your probably right. I bet that Reza Pahlavi would become the monarch and maybe Maryam Rajavi would become the prime minister of Iran if the Green Movement turned out to be more successful. They would both have little support as rulers outside of the northern part of Tehran and would likely slaughter any of the remaining supporters of the former Iranian government.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Competitive House Predictions: NH-01 to NY-22 on: October 29, 2016, 07:16:43 am
Going to be bold and say Democrats across the board. The East Coast is going to be a bloodbath, and I'll happily eat my hat with mustard if I'm proven wrong.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1996 Democratic Presidential Primaries if Clinton lost in 1992? on: October 28, 2016, 01:52:46 pm
Probably either Al Gore or John Kerry.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who are you rooting for to win Utah? on: October 21, 2016, 10:33:40 am
Technically Johnson, but McMuffin.  Anyone not Trump or Hillary. That goes for any of the 50 states and DC.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: Al D'Amato vrs j.f.k jr. on: October 08, 2016, 03:07:49 pm
If they faced each other in the 1992 New York senate race, I feel that John F. Kennedy Jr. would likely defeat Al D'Amato by about a 5% margin. 
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Record longest serving senators: Your least favorite on: September 29, 2016, 11:09:55 am
Thurmond and Byrd.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Iran vs Saudi Arabia on: September 26, 2016, 10:50:05 am
Both are awful and disgusting, but still prefer Iran. Saudia Arabia is terrible with their crazy ideology of islam and a sponsor of terrorism.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: FDR vs Trump 2016 on: September 14, 2016, 11:43:21 am
FDR obliterates Trump in a 50 state landslide.
Trump would only win Alabama, West Virginia, and Oklahoma against FDR.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Thurmond 1948/Johnson 1964 voter on: September 14, 2016, 08:16:37 am
A Southern Democrat who changed their views on Civil Rights for African Americans sometime in the 1950s.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: HuffPo: Trump Threatens War Over Hand Gestures on: September 10, 2016, 04:25:05 pm
Any war with Iran would be a suicide mission and end in a humiliating defeat for the US.
17  General Discussion / Alternative History / Re: What if Reagan had picked Ford as VP in 1980? on: September 05, 2016, 06:36:11 pm
I would imagine that Ronald Reagan's Presidency would have turned out the same as in RL if he picked Gerald Ford as his running mate. A Dukakis-Ford race in 1988 would have been interesting to see as well. I doubt that Ford would have ran an aggressive campaign like George H.W. Bush did in RL, so Dukakis could have very well won the election.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will a Republican reach 70% in West Virginia in one of the next four elections? on: September 05, 2016, 10:24:31 am
It is likely that Trump will this November.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will Hillary win reelection? on: September 05, 2016, 10:23:28 am
Knowing the G.O.P, when next election comes, they'll nominate Ted Cruz or some other Reactionary-Lite Conservative and lose. Come 2024 though, I think they'll nominate someone more moderate, but still a Conservative. Can't put a name on that person, because they're likely still in the state legislature.

If they nominate Ted Cruz he'll destroy Hillary Clinton in a landslide like this


I do not see Ted Cruz ever carrying Washington, Oregon, Michigan, Virginia, New Hampshire, and ME-1. He is a very poor fit for all of those states. Also, Cruz would have trouble in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida as well.
20  General Discussion / Alternative History / WI: Iranian Green Movement More Successful? on: September 04, 2016, 05:55:37 pm
Let's say that the Iranian Green Movement somehow succeeded in overthrowing Ayatollah Khamenei and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and allows Reza Pahlavi and/or Maryam Rajavi to come to power instead with limited US backing. What would have been the effect on contemporary Middle Eastern politics?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict Clinton's EV range on: August 21, 2016, 07:20:28 am
Anywhere between 213-516 EV.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of TNvolunteer? on: August 16, 2016, 05:51:49 pm
FF (not an angry NH woman)
23  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sam Spade Memorial Good Post Gallery on: August 16, 2016, 05:50:08 pm
Abortion is a weird issue that defies most trends, unlike most issues. But still, people want to "conserve" Roe v Wade and its effects.

But look at other issues. Would anyone really say being anti-slavery is "progressive"? Is being against Jim Crow laws and for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 "progressive"? Is believing women should vote "progressive," at least in the United States? Is supporting Social Security and Medicare?

No. They are the status quo, wanting to keep them is conservative. Being a progressive is about making progress, it's about changing things. And there's always those who want to regress to the way things used to be. If you support same-sex marriage in the United States, you're no longer a progressive on the issue, you're a conservative. You may still be a progressive on gay issues in general, since there's still work to be done, but there's no more work to be done in the United States on the marriage aspect of the issue.

Life moves on.

New generations will bring new issues.

If the progressive agenda that exists now as of 2016 is completely achieved in the next 50 years, then that's not what the progressive agenda of 2116 will be. By then the conservative position might be keeping the social systems of the 20th and 21st centuries in place (maybe even things like single-payer healthcare, free college, the EPA, and Social Security), while the progressives would probably be demanding something totally different.

Yeah, a 90-year-old living today in 2016 probably isn't "progressive" on, say, LGBT issues. But they might have been a fierce progressive fighter in their youth, protesting for Civil Rights and women's rights, for the creation of Medicare and the EPA. But today we would mark that person as a conservative, because they're conservative on today's issues. They fought the good fight, they made progress, and  the progressive agenda moved on with new ideas from new generations. To say they became "more conservative with age" would be completely missing the point.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: which is more likely to get elected president first game on: August 16, 2016, 05:36:11 pm
The proud Scientologist.

Mohammed Reza Pahlavi or Ayatollah Khamenei?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better) on: August 15, 2016, 10:16:38 am
Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.

He would've been barely competitive/trailing in NC, considering how poorly he consistently did in FL.

BS on Ohio and Wisconsin, even Colorado would be a tossup. If the last polls for even rubio had hillary up in OH over him, then she'd be up even higher on Cruz logically.
North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia would probably be close, but I could see Cruz carrying them by about the same percentage that Mitt Romney received in 2012. I also have have Cruz carrying Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado due to high turnout by evangelical voters (which make up a sizable percentage of voters in all 4 of those states).] On the other hand, Hillary Clinton would be polling about the same in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida and a couple points higher in New Hampshire if Cruz were the nominee.

Incorrect. The evangelical vote has already solidified behind Trump. How can Cruz, thus, put those states in-play on the backs of evangelicals:

http://www.pewforum.org/2016/07/13/evangelicals-rally-to-trump-religious-nones-back-clinton/


Ted Cruz has a much more consistent record in favor of socially conservative values than Donald Trump. For example, Trump was pro-choice up until a few years ago, has a mixed record on same-sex marriage, only offered lukewarm support for the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and is opposed to laws banning transgender individuals from using a bathroom that does not match their gender at birth. On the other hand, Cruz has been a strong opponent of abortion and same-sex marriage since he first entered into politics, strongly supported the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and strongly supports laws banning transgender individuals from using a bathroom that does not match their gender at birth. As a result, I feel that Cruz would have gotten the support of about 80-85% of evangelical voters if he was the Republican nominee as opposed to the 78% of evangelical voters who support Trump.
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