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February 11, 2016, 06:27:37 pm
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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: What happens to the GOP if Cruz turns out to be Goldwater 2.0? on: February 08, 2016, 07:37:58 am
I really don't see Ted Cruz losing by all that big of a margin. In a Clinton vs. Cruz race, the only Romney state that Clinton has a reasonable chance at picking up is North Carolina, while Cruz on the other hand, has a great chance at picking up Iowa, Colorado, and Ohio. Cruz will also perform very well in the South and get over 60% of the vote in most states in that region (he may even crack 70% in Oklahoma and West Virginia).
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 2012- Santorum vs Obama on: February 04, 2016, 03:06:12 pm

President Barack Obama (D-IL)/Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE): 358 EV (52%)
Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)/Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI): 180 EV (46%)
Others: 0 EV (2%)

Pretty much the same as in RL, with the exception of Obama picking up North Carolina and Arizona and coming closer in Montana, Georgia, Missouri, and Indiana. Ohio, Colorado, and Iowa are also very close due to high evangelical turnout for Santorum, but Obama still narrowly carries them. 
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: JFK Survives Assassination Attempt, Healthy Enough to Run Again in 1964 on: February 04, 2016, 02:40:57 pm


John F Kennedy/Lyndon B Johnson          429
Barry Goldwater/William E Miller              109
Seems about right, though I might flip California, Florida, Oklahoma, and Virginia to Goldwater. Either way, I am thinking that the results will be about 56% for JFK and 42 or 43% for Goldwater.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump v Cruz on: January 31, 2016, 12:16:19 pm
With Trump, you can at least get a good laugh at his campaign and policy positions.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Screw this election on: January 31, 2016, 12:13:11 pm
Looks like I'm going to vote for Hillary so that Republicans get a better candidate in 4 years.
Unfortunately, it looks like Tom Cotton stands a good chance at winning the Republican nomination in 2020 and his main goal as President would be to go to war with Iran.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Be Bold: WHO WINS IOWA? on: January 28, 2016, 03:50:36 pm
I am going to bet that both Trump and Sanders will win the Iowa Caucus by a somewhat close margin.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Is a GOP controlled congress 100% certain if Trump wins? on: January 28, 2016, 03:48:27 pm
I am not too sure. I personally feel that Iillinos, Wisconsin, Florida, and New Hampshire all have better than a 50% chance to flip to the Democrats regardless of who will win in 2016. Considering that factor, the Senate may have a 50-50 split in 2016.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Blowin' in the Wind: A Timeline from the 1960s Onward on: January 01, 2016, 01:50:06 pm
Excellent timeline so far!
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Have you Decided who you are going to vote for/ support yet??? on: December 13, 2015, 07:33:00 pm
Whoever isn't Trump or Hillary.

Why would you oppose the 2 best candidates in the race?
LOL Clinton and Trump are the two worst candidates in the race.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Have you Decided who you are going to vote for/ support yet??? on: December 13, 2015, 11:43:36 am
I am probably going to end up voting third party (either for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein) if it's a Trump vs. Clinton race.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What happens in Clinton vs. Trump? on: December 11, 2015, 11:01:41 am
Hillary Clinton narrowly picks up North Carolina, but Donald Trump picks up Ohio, Iowa, Colorado due to high turnout among white working class voters and does slightly better in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan than Mitt Romney in 2012.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH - PPP - Clinton generally underperforming Obama '12 on: December 10, 2015, 11:51:22 am
Seems about right. New Hampshire should go for Hillary Clinton by about 6% when all is said and done. The only Republicans that could conceivably with the state are Marco Rubio or John Kasich, but their chances at winning the nomination are not that strong at this point.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NC: PPP: Clinton trails all but Bush, Sanders trails all but Fiorina on: December 10, 2015, 11:47:31 am
In the end I think Trump and possibly Cruz will say enough stupid things to lose the state to Hillary. That said, it will not be a tipping point and is the Dems pretty clear 347th electoral vote.

Also get the feeling that southern whites will hold up well for Cruz/Trump while northern whites would swing D, possibly considerably in rich suburbs. NC also doesn't have many Hispanics and black turnout could fall slightly, although more minorities will be eligible voters in 2016 than 2012. A state like FL is a bigger risk for Trump/Cruz where Hispanics will be like 3% greater and whites 3% less than 2012 and Romney already got 39% of them (mostly older Cubans).

Trump or Cruz could easily make up for losing North Carolina by picking up Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado.
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1956 Presidential Primaries (Politics, Politics Never Changes) on: December 09, 2015, 11:26:50 am
Re-elect Ronnie!
15  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Your Favorite and least favorite class every year in highschool on: December 08, 2015, 12:32:00 pm
High School
9th Grade:
Favorite: World History
Least Favorite: TV Production

10th Grade:
Favorite: US History 1, General Business
Least Favorite: Gym

11th Grade:
Favorite: US History II, Computer Science
Least Favorite: Algebra II

12th Grade:
Favorite: AP US History, AP English
Least Favorite: I liked all my classes in 12th grade

College
Fall 2012 Semester:
Favorite: US History I
Least Favorite: Pre-Algebra

Spring 2013 Semester:
Favorite: US History II
Least Favorite: Speech

Fall 2013 Semester:
Favorite: Intro to Political Science
Least Favorite: Statistics, Biology

Spring 2014 Semester:
Favorite: Early American Literature
Least Favorite: Macroeconomics

Fall 2014 Semester:
Favorite: Environmental Science (my teacher was also smokin' hot in that class!)
Least Favorite: Intercultural Communication (the class was an easy A, but not a very interesting class at all)

Spring 2015 Semester:
Favorite: State, County, and Local Government
Least Favorite: Intro to Scoiology

Fall 2015 Semester;
Favorite: Business and Economic History of the US
Least Favorite: International Law
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: December 08, 2015, 11:07:24 am
2016 (Clinton vs. Rubio)

Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)/Governor John Kasich (R-OH): 288 EV (50%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/ HUD Secretary Julian Castro (D-TX): 250 EV (48%)
Others: 0 EV (2%)

The closest states are Pennsylvania, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Florida.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Marco Rubio Even Win a Primary? on: December 04, 2015, 11:32:28 am
Rubio probably has a shot at winning Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Florida, Puerto Rico, Delaware, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine in the Republican primaries, but that is definately not enough to win the nomination.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Could the Republicans Improve Their Numbers in New York? on: December 04, 2015, 11:29:10 am
I doubt that they could in 2016, considering the fact that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee and possibly get 70% of the vote in New York. In the coming decades, the Republicans might improve their numbers in New York (but not by enough to win the state) if they moderate on social and economic issues and make a play at improving their support among minority voters. 
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If only Trump, Cruz, Rubio were in the race... what % would each have? on: December 03, 2015, 05:13:16 pm
Trump: 40%
Rubio:35%
Cruz: 25%
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Quinnipiac national poll: Clinton and Sanders lead all Republicans by 1-10 pts on: December 03, 2015, 08:36:07 am
So does Quinnipiac think the Democrats are going to win California and New York by 40 points or what? Because their national polls and state polls don't make any sense other wise.
That's not really out of the cards. I could see Hillary Clinton easily hitting 70% of the vote in New York (even against Trump) due to her immense popularity in the state and because of the strong Democratic lean in New York. In California, the most that I can see her winning by is about 63 or 64% however.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Is the 2016 winner a one-term-president? on: December 01, 2015, 02:44:52 pm
If it is Clinton I think so.  A GOP that is libertarian/fiscally conservative can certainly beat her.  Especially if the status quo is basically the same as now or slightly worse (low growth, political gridlock).
Rand Paul could easily win in 2020 against an incumbent President Hillary Clinton (or her running-mate assuming that she steps down after one term).
22  About this Site / The Atlas / Re: Please ban Col Roosevelt on: November 29, 2015, 04:21:51 pm
X MATTROSE94
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: Shock: Rand 2nd in Iowa on: November 28, 2015, 12:50:49 pm
TRUMP AT 41%

DOMINATING

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
Trump probably has the nomination all but locked up at this point.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: The next white male Democratic president on: November 27, 2015, 04:01:34 pm
Joseph P. Kennedy III in 2028 (after 4 years of Hillary Clinton and 8 years of Rand Paul).
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: More likely: Rubio wins with 2004 map or Hillary wins with 2008 map? on: November 23, 2015, 05:11:42 pm
Probably closer to 2004. I can see Rubio carrying Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and Pennsylvania without too much difficulty but losing Virginia narrowly to Clinton.
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