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August 27, 2016, 04:59:23 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Predict Clinton's EV range on: August 21, 2016, 07:20:28 am
Anywhere between 213-516 EV.
2  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of TNvolunteer? on: August 16, 2016, 05:51:49 pm
FF (not an angry NH woman)
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sam Spade Memorial Good Post Gallery on: August 16, 2016, 05:50:08 pm
Abortion is a weird issue that defies most trends, unlike most issues. But still, people want to "conserve" Roe v Wade and its effects.

But look at other issues. Would anyone really say being anti-slavery is "progressive"? Is being against Jim Crow laws and for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 "progressive"? Is believing women should vote "progressive," at least in the United States? Is supporting Social Security and Medicare?

No. They are the status quo, wanting to keep them is conservative. Being a progressive is about making progress, it's about changing things. And there's always those who want to regress to the way things used to be. If you support same-sex marriage in the United States, you're no longer a progressive on the issue, you're a conservative. You may still be a progressive on gay issues in general, since there's still work to be done, but there's no more work to be done in the United States on the marriage aspect of the issue.

Life moves on.

New generations will bring new issues.

If the progressive agenda that exists now as of 2016 is completely achieved in the next 50 years, then that's not what the progressive agenda of 2116 will be. By then the conservative position might be keeping the social systems of the 20th and 21st centuries in place (maybe even things like single-payer healthcare, free college, the EPA, and Social Security), while the progressives would probably be demanding something totally different.

Yeah, a 90-year-old living today in 2016 probably isn't "progressive" on, say, LGBT issues. But they might have been a fierce progressive fighter in their youth, protesting for Civil Rights and women's rights, for the creation of Medicare and the EPA. But today we would mark that person as a conservative, because they're conservative on today's issues. They fought the good fight, they made progress, and  the progressive agenda moved on with new ideas from new generations. To say they became "more conservative with age" would be completely missing the point.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: which is more likely to get elected president first game on: August 16, 2016, 05:36:11 pm
The proud Scientologist.

Mohammed Reza Pahlavi or Ayatollah Khamenei?
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better) on: August 15, 2016, 10:16:38 am
Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.

He would've been barely competitive/trailing in NC, considering how poorly he consistently did in FL.

BS on Ohio and Wisconsin, even Colorado would be a tossup. If the last polls for even rubio had hillary up in OH over him, then she'd be up even higher on Cruz logically.
North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia would probably be close, but I could see Cruz carrying them by about the same percentage that Mitt Romney received in 2012. I also have have Cruz carrying Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado due to high turnout by evangelical voters (which make up a sizable percentage of voters in all 4 of those states).] On the other hand, Hillary Clinton would be polling about the same in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida and a couple points higher in New Hampshire if Cruz were the nominee.

Incorrect. The evangelical vote has already solidified behind Trump. How can Cruz, thus, put those states in-play on the backs of evangelicals:

http://www.pewforum.org/2016/07/13/evangelicals-rally-to-trump-religious-nones-back-clinton/


Ted Cruz has a much more consistent record in favor of socially conservative values than Donald Trump. For example, Trump was pro-choice up until a few years ago, has a mixed record on same-sex marriage, only offered lukewarm support for the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and is opposed to laws banning transgender individuals from using a bathroom that does not match their gender at birth. On the other hand, Cruz has been a strong opponent of abortion and same-sex marriage since he first entered into politics, strongly supported the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, and strongly supports laws banning transgender individuals from using a bathroom that does not match their gender at birth. As a result, I feel that Cruz would have gotten the support of about 80-85% of evangelical voters if he was the Republican nominee as opposed to the 78% of evangelical voters who support Trump.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better) on: August 14, 2016, 06:08:42 am
Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.

He would've been barely competitive/trailing in NC, considering how poorly he consistently did in FL.

BS on Ohio and Wisconsin, even Colorado would be a tossup. If the last polls for even rubio had hillary up in OH over him, then she'd be up even higher on Cruz logically.
North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia would probably be close, but I could see Cruz carrying them by about the same percentage that Mitt Romney received in 2012. I also have have Cruz carrying Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Colorado due to high turnout by evangelical voters (which make up a sizable percentage of voters in all 4 of those states). On the other hand, Hillary Clinton would be polling about the same in Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Florida and a couple points higher in New Hampshire if Cruz were the nominee.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NY-Gravis: Clinton +14 on: August 13, 2016, 06:40:23 pm
Trump won't get closer to Hillary than Bernie did here. He's going to lose by at least 20%.
I think that Trump might struggle to get 30% in New York and lose every county in the state if his campaign continues to implode.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better) on: August 13, 2016, 06:36:15 pm
Cruz would probably be well ahead in all the Romney 2012 states and a couple points ahead in Iowa, Colorado, Ohio, and Wisconsin as well if he was the Republican nominee.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Ayad Allawi becomes Iraq's Prime Minister in 2010 on: August 08, 2016, 02:40:27 pm
Depending on his political views (which I don't really know too much about tbh), Ayad Allawi might have convinced the Russian and Iranian governments to join in the fight against ISIS much earlier than in RL if he became the Iraqi Prime Minister in 2010?
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sam Spade Memorial Good Post Gallery on: August 06, 2016, 06:21:13 pm
Doesn't seem like a problem. The US sent political advisors to help Boris Yeltsin get reelected in the 1990s. Putin dining a fringe candidate and a couple Trump surrogates is insignificant by comparison.

I disagree with the Greens on almost everything, but not on a reset with Russia. Continuing a Cold War Era pissing contest over Crimea isn't worth it when Putin could be helping us knock down radical Islamic brutes.

Working with Russia would be great insurance against Chinese ambitions and Muslim caliphates in Western Europe in the next half century too. Make Realpolitik Great Again.

I'm looking forward to the day Russian and US troops can link up somewhere in the Middle East and enjoy some smokes as they did in Berlin in 1945. Bonus - Putin is a benign authoritarian compared to Stalin.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What states will Donald Trump do better than Mitt Romney in? on: August 06, 2016, 06:03:41 pm
Probably West Virginia, Alabama, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and Maine.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump break 60% anywhere? (Now with WY option) on: August 06, 2016, 06:01:18 pm
Trump will get over 70% in Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia and will get about 60% in NE-3 and Kentucky.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who will win Dutchess County NY on: August 05, 2016, 04:07:20 pm
Clinton will easily win Dutchess county (and all the other counties in New York as well).
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Who Is The Worst President of All Time? on: August 04, 2016, 07:56:49 pm
Definitely Buchanan, though I would expect most forum members to vote for Ronald Reagan as the worst President.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of US Presidents Series: Chester A. Arthur through Theodore Roosevelt on: August 04, 2016, 07:55:21 pm
16  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The CrabCake Bureau of Funny Post Archival on: August 03, 2016, 06:44:46 pm
Angry Iranian women will make the country safe-MDP from here on out.
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Hassan Rouhani on: August 03, 2016, 06:43:14 pm
Probably mixed overall. Even though Hassan Rouhani favors gradual reform in Iran, he has little power to implement any real change. That being said, Rouhani is still a much better person than the Shah of Iran ever was and does have a high level of experience in the Iranian political system. On a side note, he might lose reelection in 2017 to either Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Qasem Soleimani.
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Will your county vote for Trump? on: August 03, 2016, 06:38:01 pm
I don't see Donald Trump winning Monmouth County. It is trending towards the Democrats and Bill and Hillary Clinton are very popular here.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated Ceilings For Both Candidates on: August 03, 2016, 01:43:09 pm
Clinton:


Trump:
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Alternative Elections / Re: 2020 Republican Primary on: August 02, 2016, 05:45:50 pm
Candidates I would support:
Rand Paul
Charlie Baker
Bob Corker
Nikki Haley
Bruce Rauner

Candidates I am neutral on:
Ben Sasse
Greg Abbott
Marco Rubio

Candidates I would never support:
Ted Cruz
Tom Cotton
Mike Pence
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trend Maps as of Today? on: August 02, 2016, 07:33:07 am
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: Barack Obama (D) vs. George Allen (R) in 2012 in a Gore-wins-in-2000-scenario on: August 01, 2016, 09:30:51 pm
Also, here are my own thoughts on this:

George Allen/Mitt Romney (R): 52.08% PV; 326 EVs
Barack Obama/Evan Bayh (D): 46.11% PV; 212 EVs



Basically, the recovering economy in 2011-2012 (in spite of President Allen's previous misguided austerity policies in 2009-2010) along with the rapidly escalating and extremely high tensions between Saddam Hussein's Iraq and Iran cause most Americans to agree with President Allen's argument that the U.S. Presidency isn't a place for-on-the job training--especially given the current situation in the Middle East.
Seems about right. With regards to the rising tensions in the Middle East in this scenario, would you feel that President Allen would be more likely to support either Iraq, Iran, or neither. Personally, I feel that President Allen may decide to support Iraq if Saddam Hussien promises to allow the US to install Reza Pahlavi (the Shah of Iran's son) into power if the Iraqi army is able to successfully remove the Iranian government from power.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Clinton be doing against Marco Rubio? on: August 01, 2016, 04:15:59 pm
I think that "Little Marco" would have been a much stronger nominee that Donald Trump and that he would have ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton in the general election by winning all the Romney 2012 plus Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and ME-2.
24  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sam Spade Memorial Good Post Gallery on: August 01, 2016, 09:58:38 am
I mean this question sincerely and it is especially directed to my fellow American citizens.

I, as an immigrant from the United Arab Emirates, was very proud a little more than two years ago when I had the great honor to become a citizen of the United States. Ever since I am very proud to be a citizen of the United States and grateful for the opportunities America and California gave to me. This country was always, and is still of course, a beacon of hope to me and a symbol for democracy despite all the deep seated problems we face. I have always admired the unique history of America and the progress this nation has made: From the declaration  of independence, over the liberation of slaves and women’s suffrage to the civil rights movement in the 20th century. I have every reason to believe, the current problems can be solved in the future.

But as a citizen, I am really ashamed and embarrassed that we have major party nominee for president like Donald Trump. And this is not about political differences, not left versus right or liberal versus conservative. I have the same differences with former GOP contenders like Jeb, Rubio, Carson, Kasich, Cruz or Paul as well, but I do not question their character. But with Trump, we have a candidate who insults an entire religion, attacks parents of a fallen solider viciously, makes sexist comments about women, mocks a reporter with a disability, calls for terrorists families to be killed or denounces a prisoner of war (McCain), although he himself was never on the battlefield. Here we have a candidate who says a judge can’t to his job because of his Mexican heritage and who makes the claim an opponent’s father was involved in the JFK assassination without any proof. And last but not least, who seems totally unable to accept any criticism. No matter from who.

I have nothing against it when candidates speak their mind, make fun of opponents like calling them “low energy”, but here we have a dude who has no respect for anything, except himself. It’s all about him and how bad he has been treated by the press and so on. He did not misspoke, because he did it too often. And he hasn’t had the courage in any case to apologize. To say “I was wrong. I’m sorry”. No, he’s always right. He knows the system better than anybody, knows more about ISIS than the generals. Meanwhile, he hasn’t even a clue about basic things in foreign policy. Let even alone all his other cheating like Trump University, unpaid bills in Atlantic City and so on. I think it’s a disgrace in the eyes of the world to have such a candidate. “The world is laughing at us”, the Trumpster claimed. If that has ever been true, then now, because of his candidacy. But unfortunately, it is not funny at this stage where we are now. Not anymore. As I see it, Trump has already damaged the American reputation around the globe.

I mean, you can agree with some of his proposals like a stronger border, no citizenship for illegal immigrants, renegotiated trade deals and no TPP, less gun control, less taxes and regulations, more military spending, abortions and a repeal of Obamacare. All issues you can argue about. But even if you adopt the Republican positions, aren’t we better than Trump? Do we really want a president with this kind of character? Sure, Hillary is not perfect and she made mistakes. No question. (I’m not even writing this as a Hillary-supporter, only as a citizen.)


Any thoughts on this?

25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who do you support? - August 2016 on: August 01, 2016, 09:55:49 am
Still Gary Johnson/William Weld. I despise Donald Trump for his virulent racism against Hispanics, African-Americans, and Muslim-Americans and the anti-intellectual bent of his campaign and was never a huge fan of Hillary Clinton and strongly disagree with her foreign policy stances regarding Russia and Syria. I feel more comfortable to vote for Gary Johnson because New Jersey will likely go for Clinton with over 60% of the vote.
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