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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Will Trump win the black vote? on: September 02, 2015, 09:41:13 am
No. And he won't win it in the primaries either (Carson will).
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: 2020, President Trump versus Kanye West on: September 02, 2015, 09:39:50 am
I would pretty easily vote for President Donald Trump in this scenario because I don't care for Kanye West on a personal level and never liked his music.
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Jimmy Carter on: August 27, 2015, 02:42:48 pm
Has accomplished more after his Presidency than most Presidents have during their terms.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: August 20, 2015, 11:44:39 am
This map is all about me:
Green is the states you lived in and yellow is the states you've travelled to?
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Could the Republicans have won in 2008? on: August 20, 2015, 11:15:10 am
Only if John Kerry won in 2004.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections on: August 18, 2015, 08:53:36 am
Here is 1988-2012:

1988:

George H.W. Bush: 351 EV (52%)
Michael Dukakis: 187 EV (46%)

1992:

Bill Clinton: 341 EV (36%)
George H.W. Bush: 124 EV (34%)
Ross Perot: 73 EV (30%)

1996:

Bill Clinton: 440 EV (52%)
Bob Dole: 98 EV (38%)
Ross Perot 0 EV (10%)

2000:

Al Gore: 281 EV (50%)
George W. Bush: 257 EV (49%)

2004:

John Kerry: 337 EV (51%)
George W. Bush: 201 EV (47%)

2008:

Barack Obama: 316 EV (53%)
John McCain: 222 EV (45%)

2012:

Barack Obama: 311 EV (52%)
Mitt Romney: 227 EV (46%)
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 1960 - 2012: predict election outcomes like it was BEFORE the elections on: August 18, 2015, 08:39:30 am
I decided to add 1948-1956 to my list, so here is 1948-1984:

1948:

Thomas Dewey: 355 EV (51%)
Harry Truman: 138 EV (36%)
Strom Thurmond: 38 EV (8%)
Henry Wallace: 0 EV (4%)

1952:

Dwight Eisenhower: 454 EV (57%)
Adlai Stevenson: 77 EV (42%)

1956:

Dwight Eisenhower: 492 EV (60%)
Adlai Stevenson: 39 EV (39%)

1960:

Richard Nixon: 298 EV (51%)
John F. Kennedy: 220 EV (48%)
Unpledged Electors: 19 EV (1%)

1964:

Lyndon Johnson: 440 EV (65%)
Barry Goldwater: 98 EV (34%)

1968:

Richard Nixon: 319 EV (42%)
Hubert Humphrey: 147 EV (40%)
George Wallace: 72 EV (18%)

1972:

Richard Nixon: 439 EV (61%)
George McGovern: 99 EV (37%)

1976:

Jimmy Carter: 369 EV (53%)
Gerald Ford: 169 EV (45%)

1980:

Ronald Reagan: 366 EV (50%)
Jimmy Carter: 172 EV (41%)
John Anderson: 0 EV (6%)

1984:

Ronald Reagan: 452 EV (62%)
Walter Mondale: 86 EV (36%)
8  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Rate the Countries #1 - United States on: August 17, 2015, 11:32:14 am
5 stars. Invented freedom.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who Will ACTUALLY be the Nominee? on: August 12, 2015, 05:01:35 pm
The Republican nominee will turn out to be either Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker or Donald Trump.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Fox: Clinton tops all except Bush on: August 12, 2015, 09:55:20 am
Fox is pro Bush

It certainly seems so. I forget who it was, but one of the liberal TV pundits made the point In 2012 that for Fox did not have a pro-Republican bias, but a pro-Romney bias, often defending him against attacks from the right, even if he was down in the polls. I think the same dynamic is developing in 2016 with Bush.
I though that Fox News was pro-Santorum during the 2012 Republican primaries.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: August 10, 2015, 07:00:45 pm
2016 (Clinton vs. Kasich):

Governor John Kasich (R-OH)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL): 302 EV (50%)
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) 236 EV (48%)
Others: 0 EV (2%)
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which Republican will win the New Hampshire primary? on: August 08, 2015, 06:54:26 pm
Probably either John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Scott Walker, or Donald Trump.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Aides Worried about Possible Biden Candidacy on: August 08, 2015, 06:52:50 pm
Biden was thinking about in April and should of gotten in before Sanders.

He's not gonna beat the first female president😍
LOL! It's not 100% assured that Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 Election. If the Republicans nominate either John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and maybe Scott Walker, she could have a pretty serious fight on her hands. Also Hillary Clinton isn't polling that great at this point, which may indicate a close race for 2016.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News 1st tier GOP candidate debate @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: August 06, 2015, 08:25:17 pm
Hopefully Kasich wins this debate and eventually the nomination & presidency. He's a great guy and I plan to vote for him.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News 1st tier GOP candidate debate @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: August 06, 2015, 08:17:10 pm
"We vetoed"

Christie is so obese he's more than 1 person.
LOL!
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News 1st tier GOP candidate debate @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: August 06, 2015, 08:15:30 pm
Hate to say this, but Ted Cruz performed the best in the debate up to this point.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News 1st tier GOP candidate debate @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: August 06, 2015, 08:06:56 pm
Rand Paul attacking Trump
Thats probably going to be one of the highlights of the debate IMO.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fox News 1st tier GOP candidate debate @9pm ET **live commentary thread** on: August 06, 2015, 08:05:09 pm
LOL @ Donald Trump!
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General) on: July 30, 2015, 10:59:11 am
Clinton will win Pa.
Hillary Clinton would probably carry Pennsylvania if ether Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee get the Republican nomination. On the other hand, if she faced off against either Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush or John Kasich, then Pennsylvania would almost certainly be in play for the Republicans.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How do you think the debate next week will turn out? on: July 29, 2015, 05:51:23 pm
I hope it's a debate with fair questions to all candidates, but I have a bad feeling this is going to be the Trump show.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Bobloblaw Theatre of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts V on: July 28, 2015, 08:11:18 pm
The bottom part of this post makes no sense at all whatsoever:
The dust bowl drought of 1930's affected the prairies and it lasted way too long. Which reflected KS, NEB and Dakotas transition to the GOP party.

As well as facism and confederate symbols penetrating the region from dixie, during 1940's.
.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: what happened to Nebraska in 1940? on: July 27, 2015, 06:24:39 pm
The dust bowl drought of 1930's affected the prairies and it lasted way too long. Which reflected KS, NEB and Dakotas transition to the GOP party.

As well as facism and confederate symbols penetrating the region from dixie, during 1940's.
.
The Republican Party was very weak in the South up until the 1980s, so I doubt that the spread of Confederate symbols in Nebraska during the 1940s played any role in shifting the state to the Republicans. Also, many Republicans were much more liberal on the Civil Rights issue than the Democrats at the time, so I doubt that they would have viewed Confederate symbols in a positive light and used them to promote their political goals.

If anything, population changes due to the effects of the Dust Bowl, opposition to U.S. involvment in World War 2, and anger towards the Roosevelt Administration's farm policy were probably the main reasons why Nebraska began to vote increasingly Republican starting in 1940.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Iran Nuclear Deal Saga on: July 25, 2015, 08:28:32 pm
I know this might be a bit irrelevant now, but here is an interesting article written by Kenneth Waltz back in 2012 (and probably already discussed on the forum in the past) that argues that Iran having nuclear weapons may not be as bad as we think and might actually restore stability in the Middle East and reduce tensions between Iran and Israel (probably not to the point were they would establish diplomatic relations with each other though). I was wondering what some of the members of the forum feel about that argument and if they believe it has any validity at this point in time?

http://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~fczagare/PSC%20504/Waltz.pdf
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Inevitable question: Best running mate for Kasich? on: July 21, 2015, 11:01:30 am
Maybe Marco Rubio?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: July 20, 2015, 01:22:27 pm
Tie-Fighters

Presuming Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina as the most plausible swing states, and assuming that the Democrats and Republicans will each split the other states as expected, these are plausible 269-269 electoral ties:





What if the Democrats get both Virginia and Ohio?



What if the Democrats get Virginia, Ohio, and Florida?



Yes, I didn't include Minnesota as "plausible," and giving the Democrats NE-1 to make it 269-269 is silly, but anything other than a Republican loss if they lose VA, FL, and OH is virtually impossible.

What if the Republicans get Virginia, Ohio, and Florida?



Does anyone else have any other plausible/interesting 269-269 draw maps?
I would say that the second map could be plausible in a Clinton vs. Rubio match-up.
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