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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Other Frontrunner on: Today at 11:52:50 am
100% of Republicans want Joe Biden to be the Dem Nominee.
I could see the Republican candidate winning with over 300 Electoral Votes if Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What states could Elizabeth Warren win that Obama didn't? on: Today at 11:51:06 am
Elizabeth Warren could potentially win North Carolina and maybe Georgia if the Republicans nominate an awful candidate like Rick Santorum or Ted Cruz. If the Republicans nominate a competent candidate like Jeb Bush, Chris Christie or Scott Walker, I could see Warren losing Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire at the very least though.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: TXCD Memorial Thread on: July 22, 2014, 10:37:34 pm
All the timelines that TX Conservative Dem ever made are so ridiculous and disjointed that they almost belong in the Comedy Goldmine Thread.   
4  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Ray Goldfield on: July 21, 2014, 12:49:20 pm
I never heard of him or read any of his posts yet.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Have you ever been to a KZ (concentration camp) ? on: July 21, 2014, 12:47:17 pm
No, but my grandfather was present at the liberation of some of them when he was in the military during World War 2.
6  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Simple Truths Silver Mine on: July 21, 2014, 12:45:53 pm
No, Hillary will lose Texas by double digits like every Dem has done so since 2000.
7  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition to ban TX Conservative Dem on: July 21, 2014, 10:14:30 am
Anyone wanna post any other entertaining/frightening PMs they got from this guy? Gonna be a lot less entertaining without him
TX Conservative Dem never sent me any threatening PMs (Ironically he was actually on my buddies list), but he did sent one to an old user named Guntaker a few months ago due to the fact that he was reprimanded by Guntaker for posting excessively on his timelines.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Good Post Gallery II on: July 19, 2014, 01:23:13 pm
Radical Republicans were indeed fighters for freedom. Corruption would have came to any government which took over the defeated Southern states. Transitions are rarely pretty and one can only applaud the Freedmen's Bureau and most of the Republicans governments of the South for trying to treat freedmen and freed women as citizens. Perhaps if the Freedmen's Bureau had been given half a chance to succeed great good could have come from it.
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Should Russia be put on the State Department's State Sponsors of Terrorism list? on: July 19, 2014, 01:19:31 pm
Yes, and I think that would have been appropriate even before this week.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: The Romney Downfall - or is it? on: July 17, 2014, 01:19:31 pm
Who's going to benefit if Romney implodes?


Probably Rick Santorum, as he would likely become the nominee for the Republicans. I think that Santorum would do worse than Romney against Obama though, as he would probably end up losing at least North Carolina, Arizona, Montana and Georgia due to how toxic of a candidate he is.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of John Boehner on: July 16, 2014, 12:40:58 pm
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1972 with a Johnson victory in 1968 on: July 16, 2014, 11:47:41 am
How do we know if LBJ's health would've been holding up to allow him to serve a full 9 1/2 years in office ?


I think that Lyndon Johnson would have died by 1971 if he ran for a second term and was elected over Richard Nixon and George Wallace mostly due to the demands of being President at a time of tumult.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1976: Reagan vs. Carter on: July 16, 2014, 11:44:03 am
How does Carter lose his home state of Georgia ?

But if Reagan had lost in 1976, he never would be taken seriously for 1980.


I agree with you. I think that out of all the Southern states, Ronald Reagan would only end up carrying Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Florida, Texas, Virginia, Oklahoma and maybe Louisiana if he faced off against Jimmy Carter. In addition, Reagan would have done much worse than Ford in the Northeast, losing Vermont, Maine, Connecticut and New Jersey.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1964: Kennedy/Johnson vs Goldwater/Tower on: July 16, 2014, 08:19:12 am
Kennedy wins Florida, too.
In RL, Lyndon Johnson only won it by 2 or 3 points against Barry Goldwater. Had Kennedy lived, Goldwater probably would have won Florida by a margin similar to the one George W. Bush received against John Kerry in 2004 (52-47).
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: MS-PPP: Sen. Cochran (R) ahead by double-digits, many still undecided on: July 15, 2014, 11:03:26 am
Btw, Cochran leads the DINO Childers by 1 among Blacks (by 2 in the Reform-less matchup).
It would be interesting if Thad Cochran ends up winning more than a quarter of the black vote against Travis Childers.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in the Dairyland? on: July 15, 2014, 10:30:51 am
It will be close, but I think that Mary Burke will end up winning by less than 5 points.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Who was the most "electable" candidate for both parties, by year? on: July 10, 2014, 02:33:29 pm
Republicans (1932-Present):
1932: John J. Blaine (Blaine still would have lost to Roosevelt, but would have been a fresh face when compared to Hoover)
1936: William Borah (Borah would have done slightly better in the western states than Landon)
1940: Wendell Wilkie (Had Thomas Dewey won the 1938 New York Gubernatorial race, he would have been the strongest candidate for the Republicans in 1940 though)
1944: Thomas Dewey
1948: Thomas Dewey
1952: Dwight Eisenhower
1956: Dwight Eisenhower
1960: Richard Nixon
1964: Nelson Rockefeller (Despite that fact that he would have done very poorly in the South, Nelson Rockefeller could have held onto some of the traditionally Republican states in the Northeast and Great Plains)
1968: Nelson Rockefeller
1976: Gerald Ford
1980: Ronald Reagan (John Anderson would have done good as the Republican nominee as well)
1984: Ronald Reagan
1988: George H.W. Bush
1992: George H.W. Bush
1996: Richard Lugar
2000: John McCain
2004: George W. Bush
2008: Mike Huckabee (Huckabee could have possibly held onto Indiana, North Carolina and Florida. In addition, he was a much more likable candidate than John McCain and could not be tied that easily to the Bush Administration as much as McCain was)
2012: Jon Huntsman (I think that Jon Huntsman could have actually beaten Obama, albiet by a slim margin. On the other hand, Rick Santorum could have easily mounted a third-party bid if Huntsman was the nominee as well)
2016: I guess either Jeb Bush or Rand Paul. Pre-Bridgegate Chris Christie could have been a formidable candidate as well.

Democrats (1932-Present):
1932: Franklin Roosevelt
1936: Franklin Roosevelt
1940: Franklin Roosevelt
1944: Franklin Roosevelt
1948: Harry Truman
1952: Estes Kefauver
1956: Estes Kefauver
1960: John F. Kennedy (While Lyndon Johnson could have carried Oklahoma, Florida, Virginia, Tennessee and Kentucky against Nixon, he would have likely lost states such as New York, Missouri, New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Michigan due to the fact that his record on racial issues prior to the mid-1950s was mixed at best. Hell, Nixon might have actually won the black vote against the 1960 version of Johnson)
1964: Lyndon Johnson
1968: Bobby Kennedy
1972: Ed Muskie
1976: Henry “Scoop” Jackson or Frank Church
1980: Ted Kennedy   
1984: John Glenn (Glenn could have kept Reagan at about 55-56% of the popular vote and had much more concrete policy proposals than Gary Hart, who was essentially an “empty suit” in a way)
1988: Al Gore
1992: Bill Clinton
1996: Bill Clinton
2000: Al Gore
2004: John Edwards (Edwards might have been able to pick up North Carolina and Virginia, which would have been enough for him to win even if Bush held onto Ohio, Florida, New Mexico and Iowa)
2008: Hillary Clinton (Clinton could have carried all the Obama states with the possible exception of Indiana and Colorado and potentially picked up Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, West Virginia, Louisiana, Missouri and Montana as well)
2012: Barack Obama
2016: Probably Hillary Clinton. If Clinton decides not to run, Andrew Cuomo and Mark Warner would obviously be the strongest choices for the Democrats
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Robert Carlyle Byrd on: July 10, 2014, 07:40:41 am
HP (but FF from 2002-Present)
Pretty much this^ I doubt that I would have ever voted for him though (With the exception of 2006 given that his opponent, John Raese was even worse).
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: De Gaulle finishes his term on: July 09, 2014, 10:27:01 pm
What year would De Gaulle's 3rd term end though ?


I think 1974 if I'm not mistaken.
20  General Discussion / History / Re: In 1959 Alabama Senate decreed Hugo Black must never be buried in the state. on: July 09, 2014, 06:18:24 pm
I guess it was due to the fact that he was a key player in numerous Supreme Court decisions that repudiated the doctrine of Jim Crow segregation.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1992: Jimmy Carter is the Democratic nominee on: July 09, 2014, 12:14:56 pm


Maybe I'm overestimating Bush's performance somewhat, but I don't see how Carter could do much better than this.



Carter - 34.2 - 271
Bush - 33.9 - 157
Perot - 30.7 - 110
Other - 1.2

Perot overperforms his actual '92 results outside of the South - people are even more disillusioned with their choices.  Carter only hits 50% in GA, AR, LA, and WV; 45% in TN, NC, SC, KY, MS, AL, NY, MA, RI, MD; 40% in TX, FL, MO, OK, OH, IL. He manages 35-40% in CA, MI, WI, IN, VA, NJ, DE, PA, and CT but still loses them.  

...no.
Your map looks about right, though I have Vermont flipping from Bush to Carter due to the fact that it did trend heavily towards the Democrats throughout the 1980s and early 1990s.
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Vermont/Virginia Governors on: July 09, 2014, 12:03:46 pm
Both FFs.

Mcauliffe has currently a good record as governor: pro minimum wage, pro medicaid,...


Pretty much this^
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: George W. Bush was the worst president since..? on: July 09, 2014, 12:00:04 pm
Probably since Nixon, though Bush was far better when compared to Nixon. Bush was more inept and inexperienced with Washington politics than anything and did not surround himself with the proper advisors, while Nixon actively pursued destructive policies in order to appeal to certain voter groups and make his chances for re-election greater than they would have been otherwise.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 RNC Convention will be in Cleveland, Ohio on: July 09, 2014, 09:39:44 am
If it wasn't enough that they have perhaps one of the strongest GOP Presidential candidates in Ohio, it's also state that tilts R
A state that's considered the quintessential bellwether, has a big union population, and went for Obama twice tilts R?

In 2000, the nation voted 48.84% for Gore, but Ohio voted 49.97% for Bush.
In 2004, the nation voted 50.73% for Bush, but Ohio voted 50.81% for him.
In 2008, the nation voted 52.86% for Obama, but Ohio voted only 51.38% for him.
In 2012, the nation voted 51.06% for Obama, but Ohio voted only 50.58% for him.

Ohio consistently over-votes Republican in every election back to 1920 (save 1972 & 1964). It definitely leans-R, which is why Republicans obsess over it so much. It's low-hanging fruit, same with Florida and North Carolina.

Back to the topic, maybe I can be in attendance. Smiley And wouldn't it be smashing if the Dems also held theirs somewhere in the Midwest? I could roadtrip with the pals to both!
Those numbers are pretty close to the national average.
It seems that Ohio is the inverse of Virginia; a state that leans slightly to the right, but will ultimately vote for the winner in a Presidential election with a margin close to the national average.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Sage Garden II on: July 09, 2014, 08:46:00 am
As awful and indiscriminate as the Hamas attacks are, the reaction by the conniving Israeli government has been far worse and has only further shown that the colonists show less and less regard for the basic human rights of any Arab in what they consider their rightful land--the final goal being lebensraum stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates. And the Western media cheers them on while they bludgeon children to death in "self-defense", of course.
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