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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election Predictions / Re: 2016 Presidential Predictions (General) on: July 30, 2015, 10:59:11 am
Clinton will win Pa.
Hillary Clinton would probably carry Pennsylvania if ether Donald Trump, Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee get the Republican nomination. On the other hand, if she faced off against either Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush or John Kasich, then Pennsylvania would almost certainly be in play for the Republicans.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How do you think the debate next week will turn out? on: July 29, 2015, 05:51:23 pm
I hope it's a debate with fair questions to all candidates, but I have a bad feeling this is going to be the Trump show.
3  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Bobloblaw Theatre of Absurdity, Ignorance, and Bad Posts V on: July 28, 2015, 08:11:18 pm
The bottom part of this post makes no sense at all whatsoever:
The dust bowl drought of 1930's affected the prairies and it lasted way too long. Which reflected KS, NEB and Dakotas transition to the GOP party.

As well as facism and confederate symbols penetrating the region from dixie, during 1940's.
.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: what happened to Nebraska in 1940? on: July 27, 2015, 06:24:39 pm
The dust bowl drought of 1930's affected the prairies and it lasted way too long. Which reflected KS, NEB and Dakotas transition to the GOP party.

As well as facism and confederate symbols penetrating the region from dixie, during 1940's.
.
The Republican Party was very weak in the South up until the 1980s, so I doubt that the spread of Confederate symbols in Nebraska during the 1940s played any role in shifting the state to the Republicans. Also, many Republicans were much more liberal on the Civil Rights issue than the Democrats at the time, so I doubt that they would have viewed Confederate symbols in a positive light and used them to promote their political goals.

If anything, population changes due to the effects of the Dust Bowl, opposition to U.S. involvment in World War 2, and anger towards the Roosevelt Administration's farm policy were probably the main reasons why Nebraska began to vote increasingly Republican starting in 1940.
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Iran Nuclear Deal Saga on: July 25, 2015, 08:28:32 pm
I know this might be a bit irrelevant now, but here is an interesting article written by Kenneth Waltz back in 2012 (and probably already discussed on the forum in the past) that argues that Iran having nuclear weapons may not be as bad as we think and might actually restore stability in the Middle East and reduce tensions between Iran and Israel (probably not to the point were they would establish diplomatic relations with each other though). I was wondering what some of the members of the forum feel about that argument and if they believe it has any validity at this point in time?

http://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~fczagare/PSC%20504/Waltz.pdf
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Inevitable question: Best running mate for Kasich? on: July 21, 2015, 11:01:30 am
Maybe Marco Rubio?
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: July 20, 2015, 01:22:27 pm
Tie-Fighters

Presuming Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina as the most plausible swing states, and assuming that the Democrats and Republicans will each split the other states as expected, these are plausible 269-269 electoral ties:





What if the Democrats get both Virginia and Ohio?



What if the Democrats get Virginia, Ohio, and Florida?



Yes, I didn't include Minnesota as "plausible," and giving the Democrats NE-1 to make it 269-269 is silly, but anything other than a Republican loss if they lose VA, FL, and OH is virtually impossible.

What if the Republicans get Virginia, Ohio, and Florida?



Does anyone else have any other plausible/interesting 269-269 draw maps?
I would say that the second map could be plausible in a Clinton vs. Rubio match-up.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: How Many Terms Does the Second Coming of Feingold Serve? on: July 19, 2015, 12:00:12 pm
Russ Feingold might serve as Senator for the rest of his life assuming that he defeats Ron Johnson in 2016.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Scott Walker, Wisconsin Governor, Says He Is Running for President on: July 18, 2015, 11:51:26 am
I bet pbrower is thrilled that Scott Walker is officially running.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary's best state in the general? on: July 18, 2015, 11:47:40 am
Probably New York. I feel that Hillary Clinton could potentially get in the high 60s-low 70s in New York depending on who the Republicans nominate and stands a good chance at carrying every county in the state as well.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Rate the Presidents, Installment #37: Richard Nixon on: July 14, 2015, 10:23:10 am
The closest we've ever had to a Bond villain as president. 5 stars.
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Assembly Special Election I, July 2015 on: July 12, 2015, 06:01:55 pm
Official Ballot
Northeast Assembly
To fill one seat

[1] DemPGH (Labor - Maine)
[  ] Write-in: ____________________
[  ] None of the Above
13  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Northeast Senate Special Election, July 2015 on: July 12, 2015, 06:01:19 pm
Official Ballot
Northeast Senate
To fill one seat

[2] Clyde1998 (Labor - Massachusetts)
[1] rpryor03 (Civic Renewal - New Jersey)
[  ] Write-in: ____________________
[  ] None of the Above
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Describe a Hillary Clinton 2008, Lincoln Chafee 2016 Primary Voter on: July 11, 2015, 07:22:07 am
Maybe waltermitty?
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: New Hampshire Primary 2016 on: July 10, 2015, 01:09:35 pm
NH is kind to political outsiders. Buchanan won it in '96 and I think Sanders has a very good shot of winning it in '16.
It seems like recently, NH has been better for the 'establishment candidate.  In 2000, Gore won it.  In 2004, Kerry won it.  In 2008, McCain and Clinton won it.  In 2012, Romney won it.

Iowa seems to be more likely to favor insurgent candidates, at least recently.
To be honest, I feel that Bernie Sanders is a much better fit for New Hampshire than Iowa. I don't think that he will win the primary in either state when all is said and done though.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bold predictions. on: July 09, 2015, 11:37:28 am
1. Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination and Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. Trump loses the general election by a landslide and only carries Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming.

2. Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination and John Kasich wins the Republican nomination. Sanders loses the general election by a landslide and only carries Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Maryland, DC, Illinois, Washington, California, and Hawaii.
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: July 2015 Federal Special Election - At-large Senate on: July 05, 2015, 06:53:12 pm
AT-LARGE SENATE - to fill one vacancy

[2] Dkrolga of Massachusetts
Civic Renewal

[1] Harry S Truman of Indiana
The People's Party

[3] Kalwejt of Ohio
Labor Party

[4] Poirot of Quebec
Independent

[  ] Write-in:______________________________
-__________________

[  ] None of the above
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Governor LePage endorses Christie on: July 02, 2015, 10:41:53 am
Interesting. I thought that Paul LePage would have endorsed Ted Cruz.
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the Confederate Flag? on: July 01, 2015, 12:01:50 pm
I don't care if people want to fly the flag on their private property.  But to me it's a symbol of racism, backwardness, and it is apologetic to slaveholders.  
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bold predictions. on: July 01, 2015, 11:56:12 am
1. The first three states are won by three different people. Iowa: Walker New Hampshire: bush South Carolina: Rubio and maybe Nevada goes Paul.
2. The GOP has its first brokered convention in 40 years and bush create a deal with Walker to win the nomination over second place rubio. Leading to a bush/Walker ticket.
3. Bernie wins New Hampshire, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and one more.
4. Hillary nominates Castro.
5. Hillary wins with the Obama map minus Florida , Iowa, Ohio and Colorado leading to the closest elctoral margin in history, 270-268
6 and for fun, an elector goes rogue leading to the biggest constitutional crisis in the 21st century.
At that point, Jeb Bush would be selected by the House pretty easily,whereas Julian Castro may get selected by the Senate (assuming that the Democrats pick up 5 or 6 Senate seats in 2016).
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Would you rather live in Greece or Oklahoma? on: June 30, 2015, 12:06:49 pm
Oklahoma.  I am not Greek, cannot speak Greek, and can't afford a villa on the sea.  So I'll take the miserable OK weather because they do have nice places...mountains and what not.  Also, jobs and affordable housing and Braums.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Atlas banned posters poll #14: Yates on: June 30, 2015, 12:06:02 pm
I never heard of him or read any of his posts.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Rate the Presidents, Installment #22/24: Grover Cleveland on: June 30, 2015, 12:04:07 pm
3 stars.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Democratic Primary Candidates vs Bush in 2004 on: June 30, 2015, 11:57:40 am
Discuss with maps how each candidate would have fared! I'm going to do Dean, Clark, Gephardt, Lieberman, Edwards, Kucinich, and Sharpton.

Bush vs Dean

284-254

Bush vs Clark

311-227

Gephardt vs Bush

289-249
I really don't see Howard Dean defeating Bush in 2004. If anything, he probably loses Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in addition to the states that John Kerry lost in RL.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of Atlas banned posters poll #13: Derek/barfbag on: June 29, 2015, 01:32:17 pm
Massive FF and a very funny poster.
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