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September 02, 2014, 11:51:06 am
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1952: Kefauver vs Taft, a battle of the runner-ups on: Today at 09:20:41 am
Maybe something like this:


Senator Robert Taft (R-OH)/Governor Earl Warren (R-CA): 355 Electoral Votes
Senator Estes Kefauver (D-TN)/Governor Adlai Stevenson (D-IL): 157 Electoral Votes
Unpledged Electors: 19 Electoral Votes
2  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Recent bans on: Today at 09:11:08 am
He was banned for repeatedly threatening posters with physical violence.

Ah, one of the only legitmate reasons to ban someone. I guess this is a "good ban".
I agree with you regarding TX Conservative Dem. Although I got a good laugh out of many of his posts and was truly entertained by him, he really drew the line by threatening to harm several posters with violence (though he really couldn't do too much to harm them given that he could not track down their exact locations).
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Ukraine Crisis on: Today at 09:07:34 am
One interview-like question-

Where does Putin see Russia in 2024? What does he want the map to look like?
I am probably partially wrong in my analysis, but I would assume that Putin would like to see Russia absorb all of Ukraine, Estonia, Georgia and Poland over the next decade or so.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fallin vs. Clinton on: September 01, 2014, 08:37:35 pm
Clinton would win easily.

Also, who would their running mates be?
I guess Hillary Clinton/Mark Warner and Mary Fallin/Ben Carson.

I do agree that it would be a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton. Mary Fallin might even struggle to hit 55% of the vote in Oklahoma.

I see Fallin picking a senator, maybe Thune or a Portman, maybe another governor; but if Fallin does so horrible in the polls, who would want to run with her?
I think that Rick Santorum, Allen West, Ted Cruz, Steve King and Louie Gohmert in addition to Ben Carson would be some of the only people that would want to be Mary Fallin's running-mate.
5  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How many reported/moderated/infacted posts/points do you have? on: September 01, 2014, 08:27:36 pm
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which U.S. President do you most closely identify with? on: September 01, 2014, 08:22:44 pm
Policy/ideology: Franklin Roosevelt
Governing Style: George H.W. Bush, Dwight Eisenhower
Personality: Ronald Reagan, John F. Kennedy
You trying to be the best of all worlds? Tongue
I guess you can say I am.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Fallin vs. Clinton on: September 01, 2014, 08:17:27 pm
Clinton would win easily.

Also, who would their running mates be?
I guess Hillary Clinton/Mark Warner and Mary Fallin/Ben Carson.

I do agree that it would be a landslide victory for Hillary Clinton. Mary Fallin might even struggle to hit 55% of the vote in Oklahoma.
8  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Which U.S. President do you most closely identify with? on: September 01, 2014, 03:00:05 pm
Policy/ideology: Franklin Roosevelt
Governing Style: George H.W. Bush, Dwight Eisenhower
Personality: Ronald Reagan, John F. Kennedy
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Neel Kashkari on: September 01, 2014, 02:53:40 pm
I think he has a future in the Republican Party. He's the kind of politican the GOP needs. Especially in the next decades, with a growing Latino population, extreme conservatives such as the Tea Party won't win national elections or races in purple or blue states.

He might be Secretary of Treasury in a Christie or Jeb Bush adminstration.
That is what I was thinking as well. Neel Kashkari might make an alright Treasury Secretary or head of the OMB (Office of Management and Budget) in the next Republican administration.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Simple Truths Silver Mine on: August 30, 2014, 09:51:40 pm
Any blue state would be lucky to have a Senator as good as Frank Church. But somehow he served 4 terms in Idaho.
11  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: Women in Combat on: August 30, 2014, 09:50:59 am
There are some logistical problems and potential restrictions, but as a general point, yes.
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1860 Presidential Election on: August 29, 2014, 12:27:10 pm
Lincoln (normal)
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1968: Kennedy/Hearnes vs. Reagan/Case on: August 29, 2014, 12:03:55 pm
I think that Ronald Reagan would have won by a fairly close margin (probably similar to the map below):

Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Senator Clifford Chase (R-NJ): 276 Electoral Votes
Senator Robert Kennedy (D-NY)/Governor Warren Hearnes (D-MO): 262 Electoral Votes

The popular vote is a bit tricky to determine, but I would imagine that it would be something like 51% Reagan 47% Kennedy and 2% for minor candidates.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Can you vote in the 2014 Senate elections? on: August 29, 2014, 11:53:28 am
Yes. I am voting for Corey Booker for the Senate and Frank Pallone for the House of Representatives.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will VA (R) and North Carolina (D) ever again split in the opposite direction? on: August 29, 2014, 11:35:17 am
It could happen, but it would depend more on events affecting Virginia than North Carolina. There is a scenario other than an attack on the nation's capital and Northern Virginia that could throw a wrench in Democratic chances in the Old Dominion: What if the United States went bankrupt and the federal government cut a significant number of jobs? Now, I'm not saying this will happen soon (surely not by 2016), but this kind of event could definitely occur in the long term and cause significant population loss in NoVA, the most Democratic area of the state. North Carolina would probably be adversely affected, but since it doesn't rely on the government to the extent Virginia does for providing jobs, it wouldn't see as much of a change from its current trajectory. In this case, North Carolina might be able to stay Democratic and Virginia could start voting Republican again. Of course, that would also depend on who the blame was laid on regarding the nation's bankruptcy, but I would forsee it as being equally placed on both major parties.

Another way that Virginia could go Republican and North Carolina could vote Democratic in the same presidential election is if Republicans had someone on the ticket from Virginia while Democrats had a candidate from North Carolina. Still, that would necessitate  Republicans winning Governor's Mansion or one of the Senate seats in Virginia first, and barring any crazy circumstances, that can't happen before 2016.

Other than those cases, Virginia should consistently be to the left of North Carolina for quite some time.

John Edwards vs Bob McDonnell 😃
Another possibility would be Roy Cooper (assuming that he defeats Pat McCrory in the 2016 North Carolina Gubernatorial Election) vs Barbara Comstock (assuming that she is elected to the House of Representatives this year and to the Virginia Governorship in 2017).

I could definitely see Cooper and Comstock on their party's respective tickets in 2020.
Who do you see winning/who would you support if Roy Cooper was the Democratic nominee and if Barbara Comstock was the Republican nominee?
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Your current governor on: August 29, 2014, 10:47:47 am
Mike Pence (R - Indiana)


What a joke of a Governor. He rode Daniels' popularity to get elected, and then wastes time forcing a gay marriage ban through the legislature earlier this year instead of dealing with the still-weak economy, infrastructure, and education system.

He also stripped the Superintendent of Education Glenda Ritz (D) of her power (after voters turned out Tony Bennett for being a crooked shill for the GOP agenda of destroying public schools with charter schools, and now he's doing it in Florida) last year by creating a new agency to oversee public education, and stacked it with friends who will continue to drive our schools into the ground by lowering standards and fixing them to make their beloved charter schools look better. He also is giving them 6 figure salaries, which is far more than Superintendent Ritz makes. He crusades against Common Core while not coming up with anything to replace the existing pathetic educational standards just to stick it to Obama and set himself up for 2016, instead of reinstating the good standards we had before.

He has accomplished absolutely nothing of importance that is good. Ab.so.lute.ly.noth.ing. He's done an enormous amount of traveling to speak to conservative groups about how he's turning Indiana into a Teabagger paradise, and is pretty much using the Governor's office as a springboard to the 2016 primaries so he can claim "executive experience". He's done more campaigning than actual Governing. He claims credit for the state's falling unemployment rate (5.9% last month), but like the rest of the country it's just people dropping out of the workforce.

Pence is an authoritarian neocon, who would combine the worst traits of GW Bush and the TEA Party, and he's using Indiana as his experimentation lab to show the US how horrible the future  is going to be if he elect more of his kind.

[/rant of the day]
Unfortunately, Mike Pence will still be re-elected in 2016 and has a pretty good shot at defeating Joe Donnelly in the 2018 Senate race.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Will VA (R) and North Carolina (D) ever again split in the opposite direction? on: August 29, 2014, 07:23:16 am
It could happen, but it would depend more on events affecting Virginia than North Carolina. There is a scenario other than an attack on the nation's capital and Northern Virginia that could throw a wrench in Democratic chances in the Old Dominion: What if the United States went bankrupt and the federal government cut a significant number of jobs? Now, I'm not saying this will happen soon (surely not by 2016), but this kind of event could definitely occur in the long term and cause significant population loss in NoVA, the most Democratic area of the state. North Carolina would probably be adversely affected, but since it doesn't rely on the government to the extent Virginia does for providing jobs, it wouldn't see as much of a change from its current trajectory. In this case, North Carolina might be able to stay Democratic and Virginia could start voting Republican again. Of course, that would also depend on who the blame was laid on regarding the nation's bankruptcy, but I would forsee it as being equally placed on both major parties.

Another way that Virginia could go Republican and North Carolina could vote Democratic in the same presidential election is if Republicans had someone on the ticket from Virginia while Democrats had a candidate from North Carolina. Still, that would necessitate  Republicans winning Governor's Mansion or one of the Senate seats in Virginia first, and barring any crazy circumstances, that can't happen before 2016.

Other than those cases, Virginia should consistently be to the left of North Carolina for quite some time.

John Edwards vs Bob McDonnell 😃
Another possibility would be Roy Cooper (assuming that he defeats Pat McCrory in the 2016 North Carolina Gubernatorial Election) vs Barbara Comstock (assuming that she is elected to the House of Representatives this year and to the Virginia Governorship in 2017).
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Your current governor on: August 28, 2014, 08:49:43 pm
Gov. Chris Christie (R). He's cut taxes, due to the Democratic-controlled legislature, and some property taxes have gone down, it's been going up lately. The jobs situation is so-so. He's in the national spotlight as a tough, no-nonsense governor; also the George Washington Bridge scandal which he is accused of closing due to political retribution, and he may run for president in 2016, I don't know if he would win.
The same here for me. What would you rate Chris Christie's tenure so far?
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: Final 2012 Predictions on: August 28, 2014, 07:46:14 pm
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: PA-F&M: Wolf leads Corbett by more than 2:1 on: August 28, 2014, 09:16:31 am
What are the odds of Tom Wolf getting over 60% of the vote at this point?
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson vs. Democrat on: August 27, 2014, 03:33:03 pm
This is what the map between Ben Carson and Hillary Clinton could potentially look like IMO (especially if Carson runs a particularly bad campaign):


Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Mark Warner (D-VA): 420 Electoral Votes
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson (R-MD)/Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA): 118 Electoral Votes

Lol why in the world would he pick Santorum?
I wasn't really sure on a running-mate for Carson and figured that Santorum would have been the most likely choice for him.

Carson is very conservative, but I suspect he is the kind of candidate who would be willing to choose a more moderate running mate in order to balance the ticket. Cathy McMorris Rodgers wouldn't overshadow him too much, and neither would Kelly Ayotte; unfortunately I'm not sure how the Republican base would accept a ticket comprised of a black man and a white woman Sad

Also, one comment about your map: why wouldn't Louisiana vote Democratic in your map, especially since Hillary Clinton is the party's nominee? Louisiana is more urban than Mississippi, and both have a significant minority presence, so if the latter flips, the former should as well.
Good point about Louisiana. If Hilary Clinton is carrying Mississippi, she would probably win Louisiana as well.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson vs. Democrat on: August 27, 2014, 01:33:38 pm
This is what the map between Ben Carson and Hillary Clinton could potentially look like IMO (especially if Carson runs a particularly bad campaign):


Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Mark Warner (D-VA): 420 Electoral Votes
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson (R-MD)/Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA): 118 Electoral Votes

Lol why in the world would he pick Santorum?
I wasn't really sure on a running-mate for Carson and figured that Santorum would have been the most likely choice for him.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Carson vs. Democrat on: August 27, 2014, 11:35:07 am
This is what the map between Ben Carson and Hillary Clinton could potentially look like IMO (especially if Carson runs a particularly bad campaign):


Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Senator Mark Warner (D-VA): 428 Electoral Votes
Neurosurgeon Ben Carson (R-MD)/Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA): 110 Electoral Votes
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 1976:Carter/Mondale vs. Reagan/Schweiker on: August 25, 2014, 05:32:00 pm
Reagan loses the election, because the country was not ready for such a conservative president in 1976. After Carter won the election over Reagan, I see a comeback for Gerald Ford in 1980. After serving one term (he would have been term limited in 1984) with George Bush as Vice President, Bush might have won the White House in 1984. In 1988 he is reelected and in 1992 the Democrats win again with Bill Clinton.


Former Governor Jimmy Carter/Senator Walter Mondale 311 EV. 51.0%
Former Governeir Ronald Reagan/Senator Richard Schweiker 227 EV. 47.6%
That map looks about right, though Jimmy Carter would have a pretty good shot at winning Vermont and Michigan against Ronald Reagan. Aa for his future after losing, I could see Ronald Reagan getting elected to the Senate in 1980 agains Alan Cranston.
25  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you have a flip phone? on: August 25, 2014, 08:53:46 am
I haven't used one since 2008.
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