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December 17, 2014, 02:59:00 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of GaussLaw on: December 15, 2014, 03:09:35 pm
FF.

I'll miss him.
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: What kind of parties could create this election map? on: December 15, 2014, 02:39:20 pm
Maybe Brian Sandolval/Lincoln Chaffee vs Mark Warner/Jim Matheson?
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: McDonalds on: December 15, 2014, 01:20:43 pm
I like McDonald's food, but if I have a choice, I'd rather go elsewhere.  It's the Wal-Mart of fast food; most of it is just cheap and low-quality compared to other outlets.  I haven't been there in months.
Same here. I haven't been to one since this past summer actually.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election with different Republican on: December 15, 2014, 12:40:22 pm
Matt how would Mccain popular vote would be larger then Obama in 2008 beciause I thought the Democrats were more popular in 2000 then the Republicans were in 2008
The reason why I have John McCain winning by a larger margin that George Bush is because he was a much more moderate candidate who had more appeal to moderate voters. Those are the reasons why I have McCain picking up Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Oregon and the electoral vote from Maine's 2nd Congressional District. On the other hand, more conservative voters would have been less receptive to McCain than Bush and decide to either sit out the election or voted for Pat Buchanan. Due to that factor, Al Gore is able to pick up Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Florida and West Virginia in my map.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: December 2014 At-large Senate Election on: December 14, 2014, 07:06:53 pm
AT-LARGE SENATE

[1] Bacon King of Oceania
The People's Party

[2] Cris of Kansas
Federalist Party

[6] JohanusCalvinusLibertas of Indiana
Federalist Party

[3] Lief of Vermont
Labor Party

[5] Polnut of Massachusetts
The People's Party

[4] SomebodyWhoExists of Quebec
Labor Party

[  ] Write-in:______________________________
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2000 Election with different Republican on: December 14, 2014, 06:24:09 pm

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)/Governor John Engler (R-MI) 292 Electoral Votes (48.9%)
Vice President Al Gore (D-TN)/Senator Joe Leiberman (D-CT) 246 Electoral Votes (46.8%)
Others (Reform, Green, Libertarian, etc.) 0 Electoral Votes (4.3%)
7  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: OC vs. Keystone Phil on: December 14, 2014, 09:44:04 am
It would be close at first, but after the debates Phil wins all 50 states. But OC still carries DC.
OC would probably carry Illinois as well cause the Hillary juggernaut will carry ultra liberal Hagan and Begich along with NH, FL, PA, WI, IL, ME and OH to a dem majority in 2016.
8  Forum Community / Forum Community Election Match-ups / Re: Krazen vs BRTD on: December 14, 2014, 09:27:08 am
I actually like both Krazen and BRTD, as both are very entertaining posters.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems on: December 14, 2014, 09:24:48 am
For 2016, I could expect the results to be anywhere between a net gain of 2 seats for the Republicans (they narrowly hold onto Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire and pick up Nevada and Colorado) up to a net gain of 10 seats for the Democrats (they pick up Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Missouri, Arizona and hold onto Nevada and Colorado).
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: When will a Democratic presidential candidate next win a majority of whites? on: December 12, 2014, 06:15:26 pm
Probably not until at least the 2040s or later.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Washington Post: Santorum is running in 2016 on: December 11, 2014, 11:26:27 am
Santorum surged in December of 2011 last year, and reached his peak in February of 2012 (and I don't think the surged even seemed possible until it seemed clear Cain/Gingrich/Perry were all duds). If he's learned a lesson from his last go, it's that no candidate included in the debates can just be discounted.

I don't think he can do as well as in 2012, but after his 2012 performance he should be able to stay relevant, a part of the discussion, promoting his views, which is a significant victory in and of itself. Depending on how Tom Wolf's tenure goes, perhaps he can run for PA Gov in 2018 or 2022, build up relevancy, and then run again at some point in the mid-2020s; he's still only 56 years old and has time to do this sort of thing. Running in 2016 will keep his name in the news.
If the 2018 midterms turn out to be a disaster for the Democrats, could Rick Santorum successfully mount a comeback against Bob Casey or is that out of the question?

LOL at both of these possibilities. I assume neither of you guys have seen Santorum's favorability ratings in PA?

Has there actually been a recent poll taken on his favorability? All I was able to find was the exit poll from 2014, where only 23% of Pennsylvanians said he would make a good president, but that's a different question from favorability. PPP polled him in a Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary in June, he placed 8th with only 8% of the vote, ahead of only Ryan and Walker, and even trailing 'other', but again, that's a different question from favorability.

That being said, I'd be surprised if he's in or close to positive favorability in his home state.


For what it's worth, nationally Santorum isn't terrible - he's at 22/26 favorability as of July. It's interesting that a majority of the U.S. population don't have an opinion of him despite the fact that he almost won the republican nomination last time:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/173402/clinton-best-known-best-liked-potential-2016-candidate.aspx?ref=image

I can't find any from 2013 or 2014, but in 2012 he was pretty consistently underwater, and there's no reason to think that has changed.

In 2006, he was the most unpopular senator in the country. It's not just because of the wave or Casey's popularity that he got thrashed. But hey, I'm just a silly liberal, no need to listen to me. Santorum 2018! Smiley
I know that Rick Santorum is very unpopular today, but was wondering if he could compete against Bob Casey in 2018 if the national environment for the Democrats that year turns out to be as bad as 2006, 1982, 1974, 1958 and 1930 were for the Republicans.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: December 11, 2014, 09:52:22 am
1980 (John Anderson doesn't run):

Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA)/Former Ambassador George H.W. Bush (R-TX): 375 Electoral Votes (52.7%)
President Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Vice President Walter Mondale (D-MN): 163 Electoral Votes (45.1%)
Others (Libertarian, Citizens, Communist, etc.): 0 Electoral Votes (2.2%)

Still a decent margin of victory for Ronald Reagan, though Jimmy Carter does gain a good amount of support in the Northeast and the South.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of the Previous Poster's Signature: The Wrath of Khan on: December 11, 2014, 08:50:59 am
Great picture of Obama.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which states can Hillary improve on Obama 2012 by 3% or more? on: December 11, 2014, 07:37:23 am
IceSpear's list minus Nevada, New Mexico, Maine, and New Hampshire plus New York and maybe Massachusetts and Rhode Island if the Republicans screw up badly.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Past Election What-ifs (US) / Re: 2008: Obama vs. Huckabee on: December 10, 2014, 04:55:41 pm
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Washington Post: Santorum is running in 2016 on: December 10, 2014, 04:46:40 pm
There is no way that'd I'd ever vote for this man. 
Me neither.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Washington Post: Santorum is running in 2016 on: December 10, 2014, 08:12:23 am
Santorum surged in December of 2011 last year, and reached his peak in February of 2012 (and I don't think the surged even seemed possible until it seemed clear Cain/Gingrich/Perry were all duds). If he's learned a lesson from his last go, it's that no candidate included in the debates can just be discounted.

I don't think he can do as well as in 2012, but after his 2012 performance he should be able to stay relevant, a part of the discussion, promoting his views, which is a significant victory in and of itself. Depending on how Tom Wolf's tenure goes, perhaps he can run for PA Gov in 2018 or 2022, build up relevancy, and then run again at some point in the mid-2020s; he's still only 56 years old and has time to do this sort of thing. Running in 2016 will keep his name in the news.
If the 2018 midterms turn out to be a disaster for the Democrats, could Rick Santorum successfully mount a comeback against Bob Casey or is that out of the question?
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: How would past elections go if the electorates had hindsight? on: December 09, 2014, 02:59:01 pm
1824: Andrew Jackson
1828: Andrew Jackson

1832: Henry Clay
1836: William Henry Harrison
1840: Martin Van Buren
1844: James K. Polk
1848: Lewis Cass
1852: Winfield Scott
1856: John Fremont
1860: Abraham Lincoln
1864: Abraham Lincoln

1868: Horatio Seymour
1872: Horace Greeley
1876: Samuel Tilden
1880: Winfield Scott Hancock
1884: Grover Cleveland
1888: Grover Cleveland
1892: Benjamin Harrison
1896: William Jennings Bryan
1900: William McKinley
1904: Theodore Roosevelt
1908: William Jennings Bryan
1912: Theodore Roosevelt
1916: Charles Evans Hughes
1920: James Cox
1924: Calvin Coolidge
1928: Al Smith
1932: Franklin Roosevelt
1936: Franklin Roosevelt
1940: Franklin Roosevelt
1944: Franklin Roosevelt
1948: Thomas Dewey
1952: Dwight Eisenhower
1956: Dwight Eisenhower
1960: Richard Nixon
1964: Barry Goldwater
1968: Hubert Humphrey
1972: George McGovern
1976: Gerald Ford
1980: Ronald Reagan
1984: Ronald Reagan
1988: Michael Dukakis
1992: Bill Clinton
1996: Bill Clinton
2000: Al Gore
2004: John Kerry

2008: John McCain
2012: Mitt Romney
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post random maps here on: December 09, 2014, 02:42:32 pm
1968 (Robert Kennedy Lives):

Senator Robert Kennedy (D-NY)/Senator Edmund Muskie (D-ME): 259 Electoral Votes (44.5%)
Former Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Governor Spiro Agnew (R-MD): 220 Electoral Votes (40.7%)
Former Governor George Wallace (AI-AL)/General Curtis LeMay (AI-CA): 59 Electoral Votes (14.5%)
Others (Socialist Labor, Peace and Freedom, etc.): 0 Electoral Votes (0.3%)

The election then goes onto the House of Representatives, where George Wallace gets to play the role of kingmaker.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Dems: Would you be mad at Hillary if she didn't run? on: December 08, 2014, 04:55:41 pm
No (doesn't pray at Hillary shrine each night)
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Is this the dumbest election prediction in Atlas history? on: December 07, 2014, 12:41:58 pm
Not necessarily. The election predictions made by OC throughout this year were even more inaccurate IMO.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: The Good Post Gallery II on: December 07, 2014, 12:37:35 pm
I don't think that this question is really answerable, since one can't really measure intelligence (well, you can theoretically, but things like IQ are somewhat suspect in my opinion). More to the point, even if we could accurately measure intelligence, how can we do that to the 39 Presidents who are no longer with us. Seems pretty pointless.

Also, if we look at 'intelligence' more subjectively, its an umbrella term that has so many different meanings. For example, whilst I don't think anyone would say that Reagan was the most erudite President, that, in no way, shape or form made him stupid. He was clearly extremely emotionally intelligent and extremely good at crafting a message, as well as being good at recognising his own limitations and seeking advice and help from others. George H.W. Bush on the other hand, although he probably 'knew more' than Reagan, wasn't as good with 'people' (although, to be fair, this perception may in of itself be inaccurate), and, of course, would go down to defeat against the man who practically defines 'people skills' (whilst combining that with a great degree of erudition). People are intelligent in different ways, and the fact that intelligence is a subjective quality makes it very difficult, if not impossible to assess which President was the most intelligent.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: John Kerry 2016? on: December 07, 2014, 11:48:25 am
Howard Dean/Wesley Clark ticket would have done better than the Kerry/Edwards ticket due to whatever Equality Marriage did to the ticket in 2004, not 2014, and Teresa Hinz-Kerry damaged Kerry as well.

Kerry ruined any chance he had to run for prez by promoting a preemptive war with Syria, with the Democratic base, based on the same weapons of mass destructive argument he used against
Bush. He should ride into sunset.
Gay marriage wasn't really a winning issue yet in 2004, as a majority of people did not favor it until 2011. I don't see how campaigning in favor of a position that most people opposed at the time would have helped Howard Dean if he was the Democratic nominee in 2004.
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Hypothetical Florida Senatorial Election, 2016 on: December 07, 2014, 09:37:30 am
crist
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: The New Senators on: December 07, 2014, 09:29:10 am
Probably Peters, Gardner, Capito and Perdue.
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