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October 30, 2014, 08:47:10 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Gov. John Kasich's awkward interview on: Today at 01:11:26 am
Fitzgerald sounded sharper than usual, but I was mildly amused by Kasich's tactics. This is obviously a man who has won re-election.
2  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: RNC Chair: Hillary Clinton not really good at politics on: Today at 12:35:32 am
Hillary Clinton is a solid debater, but a meh-to-poor campaigner. I mean, we'll see, but against most of the GOP, I think she's a good bet. 2016 won't be the year for them to beat her.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: KS-01-Jayhawk Consulting: Democratic internal shows Huelskamp (R) down 7 on: Today at 12:30:58 am
This would require Huelskamp to have a sub-20% approval rating. Throw it in the trash.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2008 Presidential Election: Game Thread on: Today at 12:18:33 am
"No. I don't request recounts because I'm dissatisfied with the result." - Lincoln when asked by the press if she would request recounts for any contests in the Democratic primary.
okay... It's within .04%, perfectly acceptable in recount range, but if you feeling like going negative over that, cool.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 2: Small Growth Act of 2014 on: October 29, 2014, 06:53:02 pm
Amendment is friendly.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 29, 2014, 06:17:53 pm
Mark Udall's new ad hits Cory Gardner on, you guessed it, personhood.

I'm not sure how he doesn't get this. He's run this attack into the ground, got a high powered drill, and then dug deeper. Pathetic.

If they're running it, it's effective. I think I trust Udall's campaign manager over some teenager on a web forum.

It sure is... at getting Gardner's numbers up Tongue
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 29, 2014, 06:09:28 pm
Mark Udall's new ad hits Cory Gardner on, you guessed it, personhood.

I'm not sure how he doesn't get this. He's run this attack into the ground, got a high powered drill, and then dug deeper. Pathetic.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Colorado Megathread: Buck-ing the trend on: October 29, 2014, 04:48:13 pm
Lol that is an awful ad. Just adds a little room to the Great Gardner's margin.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-04 Horsford Might Lose on: October 29, 2014, 04:45:36 pm
The DCCC has sent a good chunk of money to the district. I doubt he loses, but the fact that he's shaking in his boots shows this is going to be a good Republican year. Either that, or Sandoval's coats really do have tails, in which case, Domination Nevada!
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Who will win in NE-2? on: October 29, 2014, 04:30:37 pm
Think about this: In 2012, his challenger got next to no support from the DNC, and he still out-performed Obama and nearly beat Terry (51-49). Now Ashford is a well-funded, well-known challenger who is a moderate and a former Republican. Polls show Terry down 5, I argue it could be even more.

Long term prospects for Ashford aren't promising though - It's a Lean R district, he's 64, and chances are, the Republican bench in this area is good.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Who will win in Maine? on: October 29, 2014, 01:43:20 pm
Cutler's kinda-maybe withdraw definitely helps Michaud, but I still think LePage has momentum in this race, and could win by a point or so. This will be one of the narrowest races in the country though.
12  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Mideast Telegraph Poll: Special at-large Senate election on: October 29, 2014, 01:28:28 pm
Myself
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: HI-01: Civil Beat: Tied on: October 29, 2014, 12:08:41 pm
Takai probably wins by mid-single digits, considering that, except for Aloha vote poll (which guessed Hanabusa would win by 5 and she won by 6), most pollsters got the 2010 race wrong too.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Predict % in Arkansas. on: October 29, 2014, 12:01:34 pm
Asa Hutchinson (R) - 53%
Mike Ross (D) - 45%
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Maine: Cutler kind of sort of unofficially drops out on: October 29, 2014, 12:00:03 pm
Eh. I'm not sure that'll be enough. Cutler will still probably get 5 or 6%, enough to where if LePage continues to improve in his poll numbers as he has, then the Governord can win.

But he hasn't officially dropped out, so, yeah.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: Strategies 360 (D): Udall +1 on: October 29, 2014, 11:56:38 am
Garder is not winning white voters by only 4%

Yeah, this is a terrible poll. Throw it in the trash.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Quinnipiac - Ernst up 4 on: October 29, 2014, 11:53:25 am
Quinnipiac has been super R-friendly this cycle. We'll see if they were right to be on Tuesday.

Quinnipiac gets it closer to right toward the end of the cycle. I'm willing to trust this.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2008 Presidential Election: Game Thread on: October 29, 2014, 11:11:42 am
Howard Dean demands a re-count.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Governor Sink vs Senator Coakley on: October 28, 2014, 11:27:03 pm
Can we stop these threads?
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: NM: Vox Populi - Udall (D) 51; Weh (R) 45 (Udall +4 when undecideds not pushed) on: October 28, 2014, 10:42:19 pm
Vox Populi had Monica Wehby ahead of Jeff Merkley. Throw it in the trash. Udall wins at least by skim double digits.
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which Democrat is worse? on: October 28, 2014, 10:41:31 pm
Weiland. ANY candidate would be struggling in the MA governor's race, as the polls showed (Baker was crushing Grossman/Berwick). Weiland blew this seat for us TWICE, once by forcing out SHS and then again by not dropping out and endorsing Pressler once Pressler surged.

Coakley screwed up twice two. And Presslers numbers fell even harder than Weilands (going from over 30 to below 20 in a matter of weeks).
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Ronald Reagan on: October 28, 2014, 10:37:17 pm
Vile scumbag. If you give any damn about social justice in America, this man is your Hitler.

Okay, back to middle school with ye!
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: The Imperial Dominion of the South's Legislature on: October 28, 2014, 10:31:47 pm
Emperor - Maxwell (DR-LA)
IDS Magistrate - PiT (Fed-LA)

District 1 - Flo (TPP-MS)
District 2 - Dereich (Fed-SC)
At-Large - Dixie (Fed-TN)
At-Large - SJoyce (TPP-FL)
At-Large - Pingvin (Fed-TX)
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Republicans/GOP primary voters only: Chris Christie vs Scott Walker 2.0 on: October 28, 2014, 10:29:05 pm
Even though I disagree with his ebola policy (and surely much else), Christopher Christie is a wonderful man with a wonderful temperament. He would easily carry my vote as the nominee (though I would likely prefer Paul, Ryan, or Huntsman in a primary - very close).

Say what you will on policy, but that is almost definitively false.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: 2008 Presidential Election: Game Thread on: October 28, 2014, 10:23:01 pm
GOTV STRATEGY



Howard Dean Surrogates in New Hampshire
Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter
Ex-State Chair Mike King
State Speaker Terri Norelli
Former President Al Gore
Senator John Kerry
Senator Barack Obama
Former Senator Bill Bradley
Former Governor Lowell Weicker



Using Bill Bradley, Mike King, Terie Norelli, Carol Shea-Porter's intimate knowledge of the state, the Dean campaign has gone through every corner of the state, attempting to increase turnout among rural voters in the nothern part of New Hampshire. Dean, with his messaging on balanced budgets, is also heavily targeting the independents and even some Republican voters, hoping to use the low turnout Republican primary as an advantage to his own, peeling some moderates and anti-war conservatives to his advantage. In addition, workers in New Hampshire are being pushed into hyper-drive, with higher wages for per hour employees and increased wages during the final month. With fundraising continuing to grow after a narrow Iowa win, the Dean campaign feels confident but not overwhelmingly so about their potential performance in the state. Other Dean surrogates in other states are hitting the TVs in order to keep his name in the presses.
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