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August 22, 2017, 10:05:26 am
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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment Megathread on: August 21, 2017, 10:16:34 pm

Smart Move. Imagine he'll likely challenge Gardner in 2020 and become the Dem nominee favorite and will start as the GE favorite.

why would he run for Senate when he quit instead of running for Governor? doesn't seem like Perlmutter wants a promotion.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY-PPP (D): McConnell trails Generic D by 7 points, Paul leads by 12 on: August 21, 2017, 09:59:08 pm
didn't McConnell start out fairly far behind in 2014 too? McConnell has that seat as long as he wants it because he runs bloody as hell campaigns.

I mean he beat Grimes by 15 even with just horrible approval ratings. Now that might be a reflection on Grimes, but still.

Grimes ran a terrible campaign in 2014 and the race started as a dead-heat.

If you named a Democrat, McConnell would probably be ahead at the moment (perhaps by 1 or 2, but ahead nevertheless)
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you support the RAISE Act? on: August 21, 2017, 06:07:39 pm
Nah.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: OK-SEN 2020: Scott Pruitt potentially running on: August 21, 2017, 06:04:06 pm
Not all together that surprising - Pruitt has been running the EPA like a political post, and to his credit has been the most effective member of Trumps cabinet. That will probably make him the frontrunner should Inhofe retire in 2020.
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KY-PPP (D): McConnell trails Generic D by 7 points, Paul leads by 12 on: August 21, 2017, 06:01:11 pm
didn't McConnell start out fairly far behind in 2014 too? McConnell has that seat as long as he wants it because he runs bloody as hell campaigns.

I mean he beat Grimes by 15 even with just horrible approval ratings. Now that might be a reflection on Grimes, but still.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ Sen-If she ran, could Fmr. Gov Napolitano win? on: August 20, 2017, 09:50:28 pm
i mean probably. I don't think winning Flake's senate seat should be that difficult. If Dems can't win it against a Senator with 18% approval rating then its a sign that the Dems are a failed party.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Describe A Clinton 2016/Trump 2020 Voter on: August 20, 2017, 09:45:34 pm
A conservative Republican whose main concern with Trump was that he would steer the Republican Party away from conservatism.

this.

also, probably Glenn Beck.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Failures are Like Skinned Knees: The Presidency of H. Ross Perot on: August 20, 2017, 09:32:39 pm
Does Perot have any allies in Congress?

Is he attempting to put together some kind of independent movement that will run candidates that aid his agenda?
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Protestors Topple Confederate Monument in North Carolina on: August 20, 2017, 08:53:46 pm
There's no reason any of these statues should be in museums. That's just a pure Moderate Hero stance.

Maybe in a museum of the Jim Crow era? IDK
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: US-SEN 2020: Which seats should Democrats go after? on: August 20, 2017, 08:50:55 pm
I mean obviously Dems should go after all of them, but the ones that Dems need to most pay attention to, and I'm doing this in order of priority.

Colorado - GOP Senator in a state that trended against Trump is a perfect target, especially a GOP Senator who is very uncomfortable with President Trump and will have to spend time finding wiggle room. While I think Gardner is politically adept, he's not Rob Portman in the way that he's so bland he can get away with it, and I think he may shed Trump support over some potential statements he may make. Nevertheless, Gardners vote record shows his lack of actual independence, so Gardner needs to be defeated.

North Carolina - Thom Tillis is just now realizing he's in a swing state and has been acting accordingly, but nevertheless he's still a very marginal political talent, and resources need to be placed here.

Georgia - This race got a lot hotter since David Perdue backed the RAISE Act. I think he put a much larger target on his back. This definitely needs some resources.

Montana - Despite Trumps popularity here, Montana is very flexible in terms of who its willing to support, and Daines didn't exactly win here with a globe trotter result. I think this is a very possible seat should dems play their cards right. We probably shouldn't nominate Rob Quist again though.

Alaska - I actually place Alaska ahead of Iowa for a couple of reasons - Alaska is trending in the opposite direction of Iowa, and the fact is I think that Dan Sullivan is a much duller and weaker political actor than Joni Ernst. Sullivan barely beat Mark Begich even in a fairly massive Republican wave in 2014.

Iowa - I think Joni Ernst probably wins here - she's already fitting into that same mold that Chuck Grassley has been in for years. I'd be very surprised if she lost. Nevertheless, Iowa isn't a far right state yet, and so if we can find a great candidate there is no question we need to invest here. I'm just very pessimistic.

Maine - Here just in case Susan Collins retires or, hehe, Susan Collins gets defeated in a GOP primary. Dems should recruit a great candidate just in case and they should fight Collins, but definitely Collins winning would make it very tough for a Democrat to have a chance.

We should put a couple of nickels towards Texas (where Cornyn has never won that impressively) and maybe a couple of pennies toward South Carolina (In case Graham gets ousted by Richard Spencer's dog handler or some weird neo-nazi) and then not even bother in West Virginia unless the second coming of Ken Hechler decides to run.

He won by 18 points??

After the original incumbent had to quit due to plagiarism? In a GOP wave? Against a candidate generally considered to be a seat filler? In a state Trump won by 20? Not really.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: US-SEN 2020: Which seats should Democrats go after? on: August 20, 2017, 05:22:22 pm
I mean obviously Dems should go after all of them, but the ones that Dems need to most pay attention to, and I'm doing this in order of priority.

Colorado - GOP Senator in a state that trended against Trump is a perfect target, especially a GOP Senator who is very uncomfortable with President Trump and will have to spend time finding wiggle room. While I think Gardner is politically adept, he's not Rob Portman in the way that he's so bland he can get away with it, and I think he may shed Trump support over some potential statements he may make. Nevertheless, Gardners vote record shows his lack of actual independence, so Gardner needs to be defeated.

North Carolina - Thom Tillis is just now realizing he's in a swing state and has been acting accordingly, but nevertheless he's still a very marginal political talent, and resources need to be placed here.

Georgia - This race got a lot hotter since David Perdue backed the RAISE Act. I think he put a much larger target on his back. This definitely needs some resources.

Montana - Despite Trumps popularity here, Montana is very flexible in terms of who its willing to support, and Daines didn't exactly win here with a globe trotter result. I think this is a very possible seat should dems play their cards right. We probably shouldn't nominate Rob Quist again though.

Alaska - I actually place Alaska ahead of Iowa for a couple of reasons - Alaska is trending in the opposite direction of Iowa, and the fact is I think that Dan Sullivan is a much duller and weaker political actor than Joni Ernst. Sullivan barely beat Mark Begich even in a fairly massive Republican wave in 2014.

Iowa - I think Joni Ernst probably wins here - she's already fitting into that same mold that Chuck Grassley has been in for years. I'd be very surprised if she lost. Nevertheless, Iowa isn't a far right state yet, and so if we can find a great candidate there is no question we need to invest here. I'm just very pessimistic.

Maine - Here just in case Susan Collins retires or, hehe, Susan Collins gets defeated in a GOP primary. Dems should recruit a great candidate just in case and they should fight Collins, but definitely Collins winning would make it very tough for a Democrat to have a chance.

We should put a couple of nickels towards Texas (where Cornyn has never won that impressively) and maybe a couple of pennies toward South Carolina (In case Graham gets ousted by Richard Spencer's dog handler or some weird neo-nazi) and then not even bother in West Virginia unless the second coming of Ken Hechler decides to run.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-SEN 2018: Who wins GOP primary? on: August 20, 2017, 05:10:42 pm
Anyone familiar with the Nevada political landscape know the odds of Heller getting a stronger Republican opponent? And if so, who could that be?

yeah idk most Nevada Republicans are pretty loyal and the ones that aren't are no hopers and jokers like Michele Fiore, Sharron Angle, or Danny Tarkanian. Tarkanian, thanks to his name, is probably the strongest challenge but he'll have a high floor and a low ceiling because even far righties think he's kind of a joke.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Donald Trump vs. Ross Perot on: August 20, 2017, 03:50:41 pm
Perot's campaign was based on gross austerity politics, but Perot wasn't outright hateful, so Perot.
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Falwell Jr:Trump praised white supremacist rally cuz he had ‘inside information’ on: August 20, 2017, 12:55:30 pm
The Falwell family are horrible trash and need to be run out of town.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2018 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: JMC analytics: Moore +19 over strange on: August 20, 2017, 12:47:48 pm
And the thing about this is - Strange has already spent millions putting his name out and trashing other candidates. It's getting him nowhere.

and now that President Trump's preferences seem more muddled, Strange is in even more danger.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Post Random Maps Here 2.0. on: August 19, 2017, 11:26:14 pm
Trump as Carter 2020



Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) - 49.9%, 389 EV's
President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) - 40.2%, 149 EV's
Fmr. Governor John Kasich (I-OH)/Fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper (I-CO) - 6.4%, 0 EV's
Others - 3.5%, 0 EV's

Pence as Mondale 2024



President Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Vice President Cory Booker (D-NJ) - 52.3%, ~410 EV's
Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)/Fmr. Secretary of State Nikki Haley (R-SC) - 43.5%, ~120 EV's
Others - 4.2%, 0 EV's


Booker as Bush I, Greitens as Dukakis 2028



Vice President Cory Booker (D-NJ)/Senator Shenna Bellows (D-ME) - 50.0%, ~350 EV's
Fmr. Governor Eric Greitens (R-MO)/Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) - 46.3%, ~180 EV's
Others - 3.7%, 0 EV's
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / 2000 Republican Primary - Full List on: August 19, 2017, 10:19:34 pm
How would you vote in this situation?

I mean this would've been a fascinating GOP field if all of these people stayed in, but the Bush money machine just demolished the field to a point where only the bravest or the most Quixotic contenders remained. 

These were all the major candidates who, at one point, ran in the 2000 GOP primary.

Funny enough - McCain may be the best option on this list and I'm not a big McCain fan.
18  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Lincoln Voting Booth: August 2017 on: August 19, 2017, 08:00:31 pm
Scott for Senate

1. bruhgmger2
2. Lok
19  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: August 2017 House Election on: August 19, 2017, 07:59:40 pm
[1] vivaportugalhabs
[2] LLR
[3] Governor Illiniwek
[4] Peebs
[5] WI: Maxwell
[6] WI: Matt from VT
[7] Potus
[8] WI: Bacon Kingham, Attorney at Law
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NV-SEN 2018: Who wins GOP primary? on: August 19, 2017, 02:23:51 pm
Dean Heller, but not by enough to where he should be running confidently.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: WV-SEN 2018 GOP primary: Who would Trump endorse? on: August 19, 2017, 02:23:20 pm
Raese or Blankenship. Anyone else is too poor to endorse.
22  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite BRICS leader on: August 19, 2017, 02:07:51 pm
uhhh President Xi because he has the most phenomenal choclate cake?
23  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Congress is Historically Unproductive in 2017 on: August 19, 2017, 02:06:18 pm
Makes sense - the GOP has become more and more of an anti-governance party, and has kind of settled into its role as an opposition party so much that it's having a remarkably tough time transitioning into a governing party.

Similarly, Democrats are still having a tough time accepting their role as an opposition party, as much as Chuck Schumer is pushing them towards.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Next Secretary of State? on: August 19, 2017, 02:03:37 pm
A bucket of coal?
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: U.S. SEN 2018: Which GOP Senator will lose their primaries? on: August 19, 2017, 01:44:40 pm
I'd say Flake is 40-60 for the primary. He is now a distinct underdog, because he has a President willing to go after him in a state where, while Trump is unpopular overall thanks to low levels of support from independents, has a solid base of Republicans.

Dean Heller is more like 60-40 for the primary. He'll probably win but not by a lot, and will have to spend a lot of extra time and energy fending off Tarkanian.
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