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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: What do DC beltway pundits want more? on: October 01, 2014, 10:24:48 pm
The first one (normal)

They also want Wendy Davis to win in Texas, but that's beside the point.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: LA-PPP: Cassidy (R) up 3. on: October 01, 2014, 09:14:26 pm
This and CNN confirm that FOX was only polling Bill O'Reilly and Sean Hannity when they showed Cassidy dominating. I'm not sure how you mix up those two names and "the state of Louisiana", but who am I to judge?

Eh, Cassidy is still dominating, in spite of being Cassidy.

Both PPP and CNN have him up 3. FOX has him up 13.

I know. I saw the poll. Fox News generally isn't bad (at polling) but that poll was clearly an outlier.

At the same time, Republicans are coming home and Cassidy is starting to take hold of this race, inspite of his seemingly constant fumbling of the ball (HOW DARE LANDRIEU HELP A STUDENT HAVE A GOOD TIME!). 

I'll be upset if that nonsense actually becomes a reason she loses, even though I'd be glad to see Mary Landrieu out of a job.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Braley +1 in internal on: October 01, 2014, 09:02:33 pm
The thing is, there is not a whole lot of variance between this poll and PPP's.

And, in 2010, internals were more accurate that pollsters. Sharron Angle was up in every independent poll, but Reid's internals showed a different story, so there are exceptions. Ground game can make up a 1-2 point gap and full expect Braley to do that.

Citing one situation does not make it true, especially a situation as odd as Angle v. Reid.
4  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 2: Small Growth Act of 2014 on: October 01, 2014, 09:00:42 pm
I like tax credits over deductions because generally, the credit gives employers a higher refund than a deduction does.

We did some of this at the federal level during my presidency, including making these credits cash convertible in the event a business was new and didn't pay taxes yet. I support doing it at the regional level too because 10% unemployment isn't acceptable at any level of government.

I do recall that, and yes, tax credits are good. And making it cash convertible is actually a very good idea, encouraging not just small businesses, but new businesses.
5  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 2: Small Growth Act of 2014 on: October 01, 2014, 08:31:58 pm
Nobody want to talk about this? I'll pull this if there isn't any debate on it. There's no point in passing it if nobody reads it.

I just asked Sirnick if he would give this and my other tax bill a cost estimate.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Braley +1 in internal on: October 01, 2014, 08:03:52 pm

Democratic internals have consistently been more accurate than Republican ones. Bury your head in the sand all you want, but you're not entitled to your own facts.

And Democratic internals are not more accurate than gold standard polls like Selzer and PPP.
7  Forum Community / Survivor / Re: 2014 Democratic Senate Candidates Survivor on: October 01, 2014, 07:55:38 pm
Schatz for Survivor.

I'm a bit surprised Begich will win this given how much controversy he's caused among liberals for his views on things like oil drilling, guns and free trade agreements.

A lot of people voting aren't liberals, so there you go.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out on: October 01, 2014, 07:49:42 pm
Now Orman just needs to put out any actual beliefs, and he may pull this out. Roberts still has one move - to paint Orman as an indecisive fool who touts his independence to cover up a lack of substance.

Orman has substance - it's just that alot of his policies are more liberal than the Democrat who was in the race.

This is of course Kansas, too. So fleshing out any of his policies would surely be a disaster.

Did you see the debate? He spent most of the time agreeing with Pat Roberts.
9  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Democratic-Republican Party Convention, October 2014 on: October 01, 2014, 07:40:48 pm
x Maxwell
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: KS-Suffolk: Orman +5 on: October 01, 2014, 07:39:45 pm
PPP, 17 August: Orman + 10
PPP, 14 September: Orman + 10
Fox News, 16 September: Orman + 6
Rasmussen, 17 September: Orman +5
Suffolk, today: Orman +5

From +10 in August, now we have Orman at +5.
The impression is that Roberts is closing the gap, but I'm not sure that he will win re-election.

Comparing polls by different pollsters doesn't show a definite trend.  That's comparing apples to oranges.  The only thing that shows a definite trend is polls by the same pollster using the same methodology.

This x 1,000,000

I want to see a PPP poll showing Orman's lead closing before I believe it.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MD: Race Tightening with Brown Holding Narrow Lead Over Hogan on: October 01, 2014, 07:36:35 pm
Larry Hogan isn't the right candidate to actually win (David Craig could've), but I wouldn't be surprised if Brown is held to a single digit margin.

For reference - Gonzales had O'Malley within the margin of error of Ehrlich in July. Then again, so did PPP. Ehrlich's campaign had its own little scandal, so I think the margin being this close this far means this race is very likely Democratic, but I don't think it's completely off the table.

I suspect, however, Democrats come home and Brown wins convincingly.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out on: October 01, 2014, 06:24:30 pm
Now Orman just needs to put out any actual beliefs, and he may pull this out. Roberts still has one move - to paint Orman as an indecisive fool who touts his independence to cover up a lack of substance.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: IA: Braley +1 in internal on: October 01, 2014, 06:13:09 pm
Oh yeah! Well my internal has it tied just like PPP! HA!

wait, oops.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: College Republicans Make [horrendous] Videos for 'Pub Governors on: October 01, 2014, 05:12:53 pm
College Republicans are somehow even less connected to today's youth than Republican Grandparents

Because it's their mission to rebel against what they consider to be the "status quo" at their colleges. It's really that simple. I just watched a few seconds of the Rick Scott one and vomited in my mouth.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: OK-Gov: The Darkest and Horsiest race of 2014? on: October 01, 2014, 04:18:19 pm
One of his newer ads positions him as more conservative on guns than Mary Fallin (Dorman gets an A+ from the NRA). This certainly gets me more on board than I already am, but it's a good strategy considering the type of Democrats we have in this state (very conservative).

He's sort of sticking to the basics - pro-gun, fiscally responsible, pro-education. Exactly what a Democrat needs to win.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! on: October 01, 2014, 04:10:11 pm
I feel like he may be Frank Underwood.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out on: October 01, 2014, 01:42:16 pm
Orman continues to use Roberts' attack ads to bolster his own nonpartisan/independent message: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2GqyWbmQr-A

Good ad.

He bobbles his head a little too much, but that is a very good ad, and probably defuses Roberts ads now. Not that that will stop him from continuing the self-destruct strategy though.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Best Vice-President for Rand Paul? on: October 01, 2014, 12:44:30 pm
If Cory Gardner wins that Senate race, he will be a top contender for VP, and I think he would be the best choice for Paul.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 2016 Republican Nomination Poll - October 2014 on: October 01, 2014, 12:43:22 pm
Burke proving to be a temporary presence, I'm back to Walker winning the nomination.
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: IL: Rasmussen: Quinn leading on: October 01, 2014, 12:41:23 pm
The only thing better than seeing Rauner going down in flames is reading the out-of-state Republican whining on here.

Quinn isn't going to win this; Rauner is going to lose this. It's not a "mistake" or a "blunder" by the people of Illinois. They know what they want, and it isn't lower taxes on the rich, a lower minimum wage, gutted school funding, attacks on collective bargaining, or attacks on social programs.

They, myself included, will take the status quo over that nonsense.

The only reason he was leading at all was protest.

Thank you oh gracious voice of Illinois Roll Eyes
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: Marquette: Walker +5 with LVs on: October 01, 2014, 12:34:17 pm
Nah man, Marquette is a fraud, R-pollster created by Karl Rove. Polling is skewed, Burke will hand Walker his ass to him obviously.
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: Rasmussen: Gardner +1 on: October 01, 2014, 11:13:38 am
a GOP up 1 in a Rasmussen CO poll is not a good thing.

Public Policy Polling had Gardner up by 2. Next.

Either way, Udall being down at all is embarrassing for him.
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Atlas Fantasy Elections / Re: Office of President DemPGH (Peace and Prosperity) on: October 01, 2014, 11:12:22 am
Also, who else would want to do the role? Cabinet roles, to be frank, are awful.

Take it from me: it's always easy to bitch about the choices, but not so much to stand up and offer oneself for the role. I propose we pass an amendment that automatically confirms for a cabinet position the first person that bitches about the selection for said office

I have tremendous sympathy for anyone having to fill and maintain a Cabinet. It's pain of a job. But we have a right to question the virtue of a President's nomination. Frankly, this pick warrants it more than most.

No question. That's not my qualm.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: OH: Quinnipiac University: Kasich+22 on: October 01, 2014, 11:08:59 am
Pure domination! Fitzgerald will receive a massive flogging in November!

Kasich pulls a full 25% of Democrats. Wow.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: SC-Winthrop: Graham & Scott to be re-elected on: October 01, 2014, 09:41:01 am
Brad Hutto probably would've done better if he ran against Scott.
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