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October 21, 2014, 03:00:35 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: TX-University of Houston: Davis and Van de Putte both down by double digits on: Today at 01:36:10 pm

This, but there's no way Wendy's gonna win this race, unfortunately Sad

Well, yes, because she's run an awful campaign.

Yeah, that's definitely true. Still, she could've run an amazing campaign...she's still known as a pro-choice liberal...in Texas. There's not much that could be done.

Sure. I mean, I think she could've gotten within single digits if she had a competent campaign, albeit like within 8 or 9.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: PPP says Gardner+3 on: Today at 12:55:14 pm
Rasmussen aside, final PPP was Buck +1, final Marist was Buck +4, final CNN was Buck +1

Which is a +2 Buck margin, which is well-within the general margin of error for most polls.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: AZ: Rasmussen: Ducey +5 on: Today at 12:54:18 pm
This is such a weird race. No idea why everyone's basically ignored it.

Probably because of the 2012 Senate race, where Carmona pulled up to a lead for a while before Arizona voters realized they were Arizona voters.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: PPP says Gardner+3 on: Today at 12:26:31 pm
The pundit in me just can't see a Udall going down unceremoniously in Colorado. The pollster in me acknowledges it's not looking good. Considering Hickenlooper and the almighty Colorado Brewer interests are also trying to pack this thing, it would not surprise me to see a Quinn/Reid 2010 thing happen here.

Or hell, the final RCP average for Bennet-Buck was Buck+3.

Can people stop citing RCP averages while at the same time yelling junk poll whenever Rassy polls? PICK ONE PEOPLE.
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Better President, of these two (Bill Clinton vs. Barack Obama) on: Today at 12:12:19 pm
Clinton (I)
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: AZ: Rasmussen: Ducey +5 on: Today at 12:08:40 pm
That's not a great margin for Ducey, but I really doubt DuVal wins.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO-Monmouth: Gardner +1 on: Today at 12:01:15 pm
Didn't Bennet win with sub-40 approvals as well ?

Anyway, still way too early to call this for Gardner. Udall still has a chance.

Yes, but his net-negatives weren't nearly as high as Udall's is right now. (Bennet was at -7, Udall is at -15). Also, unlike Buck, Gardner has a narrowly positive favorable rating.

No question Udall still has a shot at this.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: AZ-2016: McCain taking steps towards reelection run on: Today at 11:56:10 am
Please tell me someone in the congressional delegation will primary him.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: PPP for National Journal: Walker +1 on: Today at 11:29:08 am
Democrats usually do slightly better on election day than they do in the polls (even if they end up losing anyway).

Walker did overperform some polls in the 2012 recall (PPP's final poll of the 2012 recall had Walker up 3, and he ultimately won by 7), so Democrats overperforming their poll numbers might not apply to this race. On the other hand, Walker underperformed in 2010 compared to the polls. My point is that the picture isn't very clear regarding which side will overperform their poll numbers on November 4.

PPP has an iffy track record in Wisconsin. They were actually the most pro-Ron Johnson poll in 2010.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: WI: PPP for National Journal: Walker +1 on: Today at 10:14:56 am
That is a fascinating headline - PPP for the freaking national journal.

Continues the trend that this race is up in the air with the narrowest of narrow tilts for Walker. We'll see on election day though.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: CO: PPP says Gardner+3 on: Today at 09:38:38 am
Seems like an interestingly high number of undecideds, but nevertheless, this is good news.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 House Election Polls / Re: NH-01/NH-02-YouGov: Shea-Porter up 17, Garcia up 5 on: October 20, 2014, 11:57:40 pm
This is the second poll in a row with results like this and they agree with my own hunch of these two races. I don't really see what's so incredulous here.

A 17 point margin for Shea-Porter is pretty incredulous
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Rasmussen: Coakley trails Baker on: October 20, 2014, 07:49:39 pm

People here are such bad losers. And Coakley can definitely still pull it out. It's a god damn Rassy poll for god sakes.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections / Re: Predict Margin (%) for FL-Gov on: October 20, 2014, 07:48:11 pm
Charlie Crist: 47%
Rick Scott: 44%
Adrian Wyllie: 7%
Others: 2%
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-Hendrix College: Cotton +8 on: October 20, 2014, 07:30:16 pm
Does this poll have a decent track record?

yes
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MA: Rasmussen: Coakley trails Baker on: October 20, 2014, 07:28:48 pm
Ahahaha I love this!
17  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 1: State Representation Act on: October 20, 2014, 06:50:54 pm
Just put it up for a vote Flo.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict the ranking of the South Dakotan candidates. on: October 20, 2014, 06:47:25 pm
Do you both really think that Howie will get 5%? Isn't it rather unusual for such a close three-way race?

There's a lot of conservative dissatisfaction with Rounds, so I think Howie is going to have a solid showing.
19  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Replace a Sitting Senator on: October 20, 2014, 06:46:28 pm
Angus King --> Olympia Snowe

Didn't Miss Snowe leave because she was tired of the nutjob teabaggers poisoning Congress' ability to get anything done? Maybe you should follow her lead. Wink

No she didn't, I don't know how many times I have to refute this
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: AR-Hendrix College: Cotton +8 on: October 20, 2014, 06:39:01 pm
I'm overjoyed that Pryor is going to get a routing. He ran a primal, anti-intellectual campaign that deserved a shellacking.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Predict the ranking of the South Dakotan candidates. on: October 20, 2014, 05:32:35 pm
Probably ends up -

36% Rounds
32% Weiland
27% Pressler
5% The Other Guy
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: Maryland-Gravis: Hillary with double digit leads on: October 20, 2014, 04:25:20 pm
But I wanted to know how Jon Huntsman would do against Bernie Sanders in Maryland Sad
23  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Regional Governments / Re: IDS 2: Environmental Act on: October 20, 2014, 04:18:52 pm
Omnibus Green Energy Policy Act

I'm linking federal law here so that we don't overlap.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls / Re: MN-SUSA: Dayton +10 on: October 20, 2014, 03:59:38 pm
Worth noting that Dayton way overpolled last time.  He led +5.2 in the RCP average and won by +0.5.  I don't know if this was just a fluke, but it's worth considering.

I suspect that's because of a lack of enthusiasm for Dayton due to his terrible record in the Senate and the 2010 wave. I think it'll be different this time around, but we'll see.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: NRCC triages ME-02 on: October 20, 2014, 03:53:27 pm
I was surprised that people were talking this up as a pick-up possibility. I thought that died when Kevin Raye lost the primary to Polquin in the first place.
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