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September 25, 2016, 05:39:19 am
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News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 Senatorial Election Polls / Re: PA: Morning Call - Toomey + 1 on: September 24, 2016, 11:57:03 pm
the fact that Toomey still can't overperform Trump by any real margin is pretty embarrassing considering he's been running for re-election since 2011. McGinty was not considered a good recruit at first.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2 on: September 24, 2016, 11:38:30 pm
the reason this is close isn't because of whites (which she beats Obama's margin - 17 vs. 20), but because non-whites (73-23) are actually closer than in 2012 (81-18).
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ABC News/Washington Post National: Clinton +2 on: September 24, 2016, 11:25:09 pm
It's pretty beautiful imo that she still leads and her numbers improve when you weed out people less likely to vote.
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Gennifer Flowers at Monday's debate hurt Hillary or Trump more? on: September 24, 2016, 11:23:16 pm
Mark Cuban was a test - whether Donald Trump could let one little thing slide without blowing up. He failed.
No, she failed. Trump's faced tougher opponents than Hillary. He's bluffing and trying to get her to focus in on what he did in the primary debates, which is exactly the type of stuff he won't do on Monday.

Let's just agree to disagree with that (but that Republican field was a god damn clown car of incompetence who would've crashed and burned in the general even harder than Trump or would've had no chance of making it out of the primary anyway).

We really have no idea what he's going to do on Monday's debate, which will make it worth watching. So far his people seem to be saying they're having trouble getting him to have a more conventional debate performance, but perhaps they aired that to lower expectations, which would be very clever of them (and Conway, like her or not, has a few of those up her sleeve).
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Celebrity President: 2020 (Primaries) on: September 24, 2016, 10:53:48 pm
Gotta be Killer Mike.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Gennifer Flowers at Monday's debate hurt Hillary or Trump more? on: September 24, 2016, 10:49:26 pm
Mark Cuban was a test - whether Donald Trump could let one little thing slide without blowing up. He failed.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump appoints Santorum as a policy advisor on: September 24, 2016, 10:48:42 pm
Rick Santorum, the Iraq WMD's truther. Terrific!
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Rubio/Kasich be doing against Clinton/Kaine? on: September 24, 2016, 10:42:58 pm
Rubio was never going to win the primary.

And Rubio wouldn't be doing that much better - unlike Trump, Rubio's backwards and gross statements would actually hurt him. Unlike Trump, being an embarrassing lightweight would hurt him. Rubio has a backlog of people who worked with him who think he's an emptyheaded over-ambitious backstabbing fool, and those people would come out of the shadows quickly. Rubio also has plenty of dirt on him, which could be properly utilized against him. His voting record is as conservative as Ted Cruz's, and true conservatism is god damn toxic with the general electorate.

Rubio is just not ready for prime time.

I'd say Rubio would be up in the polling right now by 2-3, with the map looking similar to what it is now except a lot of state margins would be different (i.e. Florida, Colorado, Texas, Iowa in the wrong direction, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania). 

9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Rubio/Kasich be doing against Clinton/Kaine? on: September 24, 2016, 09:47:13 pm
how many of these threads do we need?
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would have Sanders fared in the G.E.? on: September 24, 2016, 04:43:29 pm
Probably better than Clinton, but worse than the over the top 15 point margins he was leading by early on. The gap would close due to the whole outsider thing no longer being an issue. In addition, a lot of typical Republicans who, thus far, have been apathetic towards Trump would be kissing the ring.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Ohio on: September 24, 2016, 04:25:30 pm
Tossup, Trump
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Nevada on: September 24, 2016, 01:27:41 pm
"liberal hero" Nate Silver

*giggles*
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie did worse to Hillary than what Nader did to Al Gore on: September 24, 2016, 01:03:53 pm
people who go bler bler bler 74 YEAR OLD SOCIALIST are missing the point. Bernie's campaign was incredibly effective at getting out a solid message. He was a strong challenger that would've gained traction regardless of who he ran against.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ME-02-Normington Petts: Trump +4 on: September 24, 2016, 12:38:12 pm
could it be that Maine and New Hampshire are switching positions?
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / Re: Jason Kander: Badass? on: September 24, 2016, 12:13:36 pm
I mean Bond would be considered a relatively moderate Republican now, but Bond spent a lot of his time serving with John Danforth, so Bond would be considered the staunchly conservative one.
16  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which Bush was dumber? on: September 24, 2016, 12:11:14 pm
Jeb has lower EQ, W has lower IQ (if we want to be pseudoscientific about this)

I was about to say the same thing except not as succinct.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: ME-02-Normington Petts: Trump +4 on: September 24, 2016, 12:09:09 pm
Trump over-performing Poliquin i mean what the hell is going on here
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which upset would surprise you least? on: September 24, 2016, 11:58:27 am
1. Trump winning Maine
2. Clinton winning Texas
3. Clinton winning Alaska
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Ted Cruz have fared in the general election? on: September 24, 2016, 11:50:18 am
Cruz is a slimy, nasty guy, and makes Hillary Clinton look downright unpolished and natural. Her likability would soar if Cruz was the Republican nominee. I think there would still be record defections if Cruz was the nominee, just slightly different people (like John Boehner and Peter King endorsing Clinton, for example).
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Which upset would surprise you least? on: September 24, 2016, 09:34:20 am
Bump:

Nate Silver now considers Maine the obvious favorite:
Maine 28.1%
Minnesota 22.2%
New Mexico 21.5%
Rhode Island 17.6%

Montana 17.4%
Alaska 16.1%

Delaware 15.4%
New Jersey 13.3%

South Dakota 12.1%
Kansas 8.8%
Texas 8.3%


that's what weighing Emerson and Google Consumer Surveys highly will do.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-01-Normington Petts: Clinton with commanding lead on: September 24, 2016, 09:04:50 am
So Obama only won this district by 1. Is Frank Guinta really that bad of a candidate that he couldn't run one point ahead of Mittens?

Guinta did endorse Santorum for President that year I believe. He's a terrible fit for the district and only won because of 2010 and 2014 coat-tails.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls / Re: NH-01-Normington Petts: Clinton with commanding lead on: September 24, 2016, 09:01:42 am
goodbye swing state New Hampshire, we hardly knew ye.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GE Wk 8: Who won the week? on: September 24, 2016, 02:51:38 am
Clinton, thanks to literally the worst reversal in history via The Donald.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bernie did worse to Hillary than what Nader to Al Gore on: September 24, 2016, 02:47:06 am
if we're really whining about "muh bernie sanders", we're losing.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: No Fortune 100 CEOs Back Republican Donald Trump on: September 24, 2016, 02:11:12 am
Dems in 2012: Romney is bad for being the candidate of the rich
Dems in 2016: Trump is bad for not being the candidate of the rich.

Cute strawman, but no, we think Trump is bad for... other reasons.


I just mean in regards to this thread. If a bunch of fortune 100 CEOs came out tomorrow and endorsed Trump there would be a thread about how he was in the pocket of big money.

his policies, on their face, benefit the top 100 CEOs in the country by a lot more than Hillary's do. It speaks volumes that Trump doesn't have their confidence.
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