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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / Re: 2012 Election Results - Data Collection on: November 12, 2012, 10:34:20 pm
My hope is to start mapping them out at the precinct level - as soon as they start releasing them. The last time i checked, The Guardian's data set isn't quite complete, but I'll have it mapped/released as soon as I can.

Do you know about how long it takes the counties to complete the precinct level results by chance?
2  General Politics / Political Geography & Demographics / Re: Analysis of precinct-level returns alleges voting fraud on: November 02, 2012, 07:41:12 pm
They've run these same analyses on the Russian and Ukrainian elections, and they can be useful. I'll see if I can find the paper. Its by a couple of guys at the University of Oregon
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results / 2012 Election Results - Data Collection on: November 02, 2012, 07:30:23 pm
For the 2008 election, I came across a thread where people were combining election results at the county/precinct level for all the states. I think it was originally run by Dave?

Would anyone be interested in doing something similar for 2012? I'm guessing they'll be more data available this time around than in 08, so it should be an easier task. I'll be collecting data for my thesis regardless, so I figured I'd share what I end up putting together.
4  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Defense Sequestration and Colorado Precinct Results on: November 02, 2012, 07:23:24 pm
Hey everyone,

I've mapped out the last few elections for a grad school project. I've posted a couple of maps for Colorado that might be of interest at justinbumstead(dot)ca

I'll admit off the bat that I don't know much about U.S. politics, and even less about US geography. I had a friend offer a theory that defense sequestration/budget cuts might hurt Obama in Colorado/Virginia. I don't have precinct data for Virginia, so I mapped out Colorado.

Does anyone know which parts of the state have big military/defense industry presences? Would these areas be fully Republican, and if so, could all the stuff with defense cuts boost GOP turnout?

Any insight anyone could offer on Colorado would be greatly appreciated.

5  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: How shocked would you be if Romney won the election? on: November 02, 2012, 07:05:35 pm
It wouldn't surprise me. I'd say the big thing comes down to the "right direction/wrong direction" point. Romney's favourables are still strong, and most Americans seem unimpressed with the direction of the country, even if they like President Obama on a personal level.
6  Election Archive / 2012 Elections / Re: Will Low Ohio voter turnout hurt Obama? on: November 02, 2012, 06:57:34 pm
It looks like turnout is going to be a key factor in a couple of states. I've been going through the precinct level data in a couple of states, and turnout was abysmal in a bunch of suburbs in 2008.

If you want the turnout breakdowns from 2008, I mapped them out last night and posted them on my site.  justinbumstead (dot) ca
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Shapefiles and Data Tables - Int'l on: July 12, 2012, 01:01:45 am
Alright, good to know there is interest. I'm hoping to start putting resources together on the UK, Australia, and Russia. I know the files exist for those ones.

I'd recommend QGIS if you are looking to dip your toes into this type of stuff. It is great for running the statistics behind the maps.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian Liberal Leadership Election 2013 on: July 12, 2012, 12:59:26 am
I've heard him speak a couple of times, and even as someone with no great love for him or his party, I'll admit he is a heck of a speaker.

He could probably use a couple more years of development in terms of policy understanding. He isn't in the same league as his dad intellectually, but could probably fake it in the short term.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012 on: July 12, 2012, 12:57:21 am
I'll see if I have the Etobicoke and Durham data handy. I'm 5 posts away from links, so I should be able to start posting maps pretty quick here
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012 on: July 12, 2012, 12:55:39 am
If you have any specific ridings you want #s from, let me know. I have the full data sets for the provincial and federal campaigns for most of the country
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012 on: July 12, 2012, 12:55:06 am
I still haven't hit the post count to allow for links, but the summaries for Calgary are up on my blog under "Federal Politics". They'll give the breakdown for the new ridings using the 2011 federal data, and the 2012 provincial election data.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Canadian by-elections, 2012 on: July 12, 2012, 12:44:52 am
Have you done any work on Durham Earl? If there aren't any maps up yet, I can take a run at it this weekend.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Quebec 2012/2013 on: July 12, 2012, 12:43:37 am
By the sounds of it, Charest is hoping for the lower turnout. I wouldn't be surprised to see the CAQ pick up a few seats, just due to the motivation factor.

How are the student strikes playing with mainstream Quebecers by the way? I'd guess not well, but I've never been able to understand Quebec poltiics
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: 2015 election scenarios for Canada: orange vs. blue on: July 09, 2012, 09:42:58 pm
I would say the most important factor is going to be the Liberal leader, and whether or not they can finally revitalize their party. If the Liberals are weak, you'll see progressive voters break left, which might swing a bunch of ridings in Ontario and BC. If you end up with a competent, charismatic leader, and a functional party organization, I think you'll see the Tories retain government.

We will also have to wait and see how the new boundaries line up. We'll probably have a good idea how it will play out by late 2013.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Canada with Australian Parties on: July 09, 2012, 09:37:35 pm
Do you have any data for Argentina or Brazil? I'd be curious to start playing with more international elections. I've only really done Canada and the US.

Unfortunately, my Spanish/Portuguese  aren't good enough to navigate their websites
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Canada with Australian Parties on: July 09, 2012, 08:12:42 pm
If you don't mind my asking Sharif, could you point me in the direction of the poll level data for France? That's another one that's been high on my list to track down
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Canada with Australian Parties on: July 09, 2012, 07:52:19 pm
You'll have to bear with me as I figure this stuff out. The Australian Bureau of Statistics is showing the Census Local Area as the smallest geographic level. Is that the same general name? or do they just not release the lower levels. I know Stats Can doesn't release our CDA or CDB data.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Shapefiles and Data Tables - Int'l on: July 09, 2012, 07:41:38 pm
I thought I'd post this, and see if anyone was interested. I know the owner of this site has built numerous data tables for US elections, and I was hoping to do something similar for the international data, basically a common site with all types of geographic and electoral data open for public use.

I have the shapefiles and data for most of the Canadian elections, but thought I'd see if anyone knows of other international data that might be available. If anyone is interested in GIS, and wanting to do their own mapping, a single post might be a great data source.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Canada with Australian Parties on: July 09, 2012, 07:37:32 pm
Thanks for the comments, always good to hear. I'll be posting a breakdown of the senate results from Edmonton sometime in the next day or so, depending how work goes. I've always just worked with ArcGIS, and shapefiles (Academic license), so it makes the mapping process quite easy.

@Earl: I've been following your site for awhile now. Your work is fantastic. I've been meaning to send a hello.

Any chance there is demographic data available from the Australian national census? If we have that, we can identify the demographic relationships with certain parties, and just use 2006 Canadian census data to extrapolate the results. As the poll data is different for Australia, we might have to run it at the riding level, but it is still doable. It'd just be a question of building proper models to account for regional eccentricities. I've been meaning to learn about Australian politics, so I'm quite excited for the chance :p
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012 on: July 09, 2012, 07:22:23 pm
I have the poll-by-poll data sets for the province, and can run the numbers if you are curious about the population/2011 results from any of the new ridings. Perhaps a bit easier than figuring it out off the maps from Alan Hall.
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Canada with Australian Parties on: July 08, 2012, 12:03:40 am
Thanks for the warm welcome. I've had a bunch of blog traffic come from this site, so I thought I'd take a look. I'm from western Canada, and I've done a fair amount of work on electoral geography.

I have poll by poll results/maps for Canada, and can match (roughly) results to my data set. It'd be a rough estimation, but it might be interesting to see. Is data available at the poll level for Australia?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International What-ifs / Re: Canada with Australian Parties on: July 06, 2012, 07:20:33 pm
I'd actually be willing to take this on. Does anyone have Australian demographic data on hand? I can build the models and run the stats for it if you can point me to the data.
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