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August 28, 2015, 12:26:40 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-PPP: Sanders and Trump ahead on: August 25, 2015, 09:17:22 am
Bush: 7%

Glorious news.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Bush clarifies 'anchor babies' wasn't anti-Hispanic slur, it was about Asians on: August 24, 2015, 05:35:55 pm
This is the part where one posts a facepalm image.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / [REQUEST] Stickied drop-out polls on: August 24, 2015, 01:19:26 pm
Would any of the moderators be willing to put up a stickied poll asking people to predict the next Republican candidate to drop out and then replace it every time one does?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why is Jeb Bush "the man to beat" in the GOP primaries, anyways? on: August 23, 2015, 06:17:05 pm
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-endorsement-primary/
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are the odds of the GOP primary going to the convention? on: August 22, 2015, 08:06:55 pm
The elephant in the room here is that most states don't actually allocate their Republican delegates in an unconditional winner-take-all manner (many are WTA only under the condition of one candidate getting an absolute majority of the votes). Given a multitude of candidates (each that can be propped up indefinitely by now almost completely unconstrained super PACs), I don't see how the chances of a brokered convention can't be considered significant.

There are only something like 6 or 7 states that are statewide WTA.  But many/most of the others are WTA by congressional district.  Which means that if you win the state by a decent margin, even if it's well short of 50%, you get nearly all the delegates.

E.g., California is WTA by congressional district.  In 2008, it was:

McCain 42%
Romney 35%
Huckabee 12%
Giuliani 4%
Paul 4%
Thompson 2%

But McCain won over 90% of the delegates, because he won almost every congressional district.

What I'm taking away from skimming through the FrontloadingHQ blog, is that (as a result of new RNC rules) the states have become more proportional this cycle, including at the district level.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary Clinton email megathread on: August 22, 2015, 07:49:56 pm
The thing is that, if this story does have meat, it then becomes a case of the boy crying wolf.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What are the odds of the GOP primary going to the convention? on: August 22, 2015, 06:50:16 pm
The elephant in the room here is that most states don't actually allocate their Republican delegates in an unconditional winner-take-all manner (many are WTA only under the condition of one candidate getting an absolute majority of the votes). Given a multitude of candidates (each that can be propped up indefinitely by now almost completely unconstrained super PACs), I don't see how the chances of a brokered convention can't be considered significant.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: KY caucus may be called off, threatening Paul's candidacy **Decision this AM** on: August 22, 2015, 01:55:58 pm
I wonder where Paul's support would go to in the GOP primary.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Inevitable question: Best runningmate for deez nuts? on: August 21, 2015, 10:06:19 pm
Dem Klaunz
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Your honest reaction if Donald Trump wins the presidency on: August 21, 2015, 08:38:18 pm
If the world can manage to survive George Walker Bush, then it can certainly survive Donald John Trump.
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Who do you most want to see drop out? on: August 21, 2015, 07:40:57 pm
Definitely Jeb Bush, because I can just see him insidiously sneaking himself into the White House.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: O'Malley [is] a 'disgusting, little, weak, pathetic baby' on: August 21, 2015, 07:36:18 pm
Trump now sounds like the Heavy Weapons Guy.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Kasich: I would ban teachers' lounges on: August 19, 2015, 05:42:03 pm
Trumpification is a real thing!
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Megathread: Congressional Vote on the Iran Deal on: August 19, 2015, 05:23:55 pm
It's going to be like that flag burning amendment, isn't it?
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: What will Barack Obama be doing in the year 2025? on: August 19, 2015, 05:22:42 pm
Anyone dare say "Supreme Court Justice"?
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: AZ-Gravis: Trump and Clinton ahead on: August 19, 2015, 05:17:09 pm
Amazing. All of the never-elected politicians are topping both these polls.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Huckabee to hold fundraiser in West Bank settlement on: August 18, 2015, 08:10:50 pm
Are candidates now trying to 'out-Israel' each other? And yeah, its illegal land. Any of these guys except maybe Rand would be a complete apologist for anything Israel permits or does, and that's a sad state of affairs.

Did you just wake up from a coma or something? Israel has been a bipartisan third rail for decades.
18  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Megathread: Congressional Vote on the Iran Deal on: August 18, 2015, 03:27:25 pm

Joe Donnelly agrees.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Updated CNN debate average + why it may be the same 10 people on: August 16, 2015, 10:38:24 am
Given that the first kiddie debate was such a boon to her, I don't see why she should mind making it in another one.
20  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Do you support the abolition of slavery? on: August 14, 2015, 08:02:55 pm
No. Both the abolitionists and pro slavery demagogues are wrong on this issue.They are dividing and destroying the country with their rhetoric. We need a mindful moderate approach that respects the landowners and the farmers in the territories. We must respect tradition but ensure that it does not spread beyond the existing slave states in the south. I support banning slavery in the territories, but allowing the South to maintain their traditions and way of life.

(Moderate hero circa 1860)

Opposition to the expansion of slavery into new territories was actually the official position of the Republican Party at the time and was itself incendiary enough to spark the Civil War. The "moderate" position would be the one espoused by the Northern Democrats, namely to have the people of each territory decide for themselves whether to allow slavery or not.
21  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Megathread: Congressional Vote on the Iran Deal on: August 14, 2015, 05:24:26 pm
Does anyone have any idea in what order the two chambers would vote on any veto override?
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is Bush doing? on: August 13, 2015, 07:32:56 pm
He also seems to be OK with torture now.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Ted Cruz stealing donor support from Rick Perry and Rand Paul on: August 13, 2015, 08:55:05 am
Ted Cruz being friendly to libertarians is one of the most ludicrous claims possible. He is akin to the kind of fictional Presidents that get portrayed in theocratic dystopias.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: The Queen of Paradox and the Crumbling Stone Wall on: August 13, 2015, 07:37:55 am
Those sound like alternative rock band names.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: NH-Boston Herald: It Happened on: August 12, 2015, 01:04:20 pm
Maybe this could trigger Biden to enter the race.
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