Harry, I guess I’m a little more bullish than you on Trump, depending on what margins he gets! Trump winning with 25 percent of the vote is quite a bit different from him winning with 35 percent of the vote. And it matters how the other candidates line up. If Trump gets 35 percent of the vote or something and the “establishment lane” is a mess, that’s a really excellent result for him and I wouldn’t be too dismissive about his chances going forward.
I get that it borders Vermont, but is that really enough of an explanation given how different the two states are on a political-cultural level? One is a swing state with a libertarian streak, whereas the other could pass as a liberal European country.