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August 23, 2016, 08:46:13 pm
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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump: I am fighting for "peaceful regime change" in the U.S. on: August 17, 2016, 04:14:32 am
Attacking Trump on this would be a double standard, given the "Regime change starts at home." anti-war slogan.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / WY-AL: Liz Cheney wins GOP primary on: August 17, 2016, 03:58:19 am
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_HOUSE_2016_WYOMING_WYOL-?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: August 14, 2016, 05:17:23 pm
Anyone hazard a guess if and when Clinton will finally gain another state in the polls-plus forecast?
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What magnitude of scandal would it take for Hillary to lose? on: August 13, 2016, 03:50:37 pm
At least an actual indictment.
5  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: How would Ted Cruz be doing now? (My guess is better) on: August 13, 2016, 10:37:04 am
Cruz has a higher floor but a lower ceiling than Trump, so he would be doing better but have less chance of winning.
6  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Any way to stop Trump from hogging media attention even after/if he loses? on: August 13, 2016, 07:00:41 am
Three (unfortunate) words: Sarah Louise Palin
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's election night on: August 12, 2016, 03:43:34 pm
FiveThirtyEight gives Florida a higher "tipping-point chance" than Pennsylvania.
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump, RNC plan another "emergency", "pivotal" Friday meeting on: August 12, 2016, 03:28:03 pm
LOL, they're on a road to nowhere.

They're afraid of Trump burning down the House (of Representatives).
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538: What a Clinton landslide would look like on: August 12, 2016, 03:23:04 pm
Scenario 3 is extreme, but something like a bombshell reveal from his tax returns on top of all that he's already been doing could push it there.

An issue concerning a person's tax returns sounds really mundane for it to cause otherwise die-hard holdout states to finally flip.
10  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If Hillary wins, which Republican will she have in cabinet and what post? on: August 10, 2016, 05:39:09 pm
Huntsman won't be SOS- has endorsed Trump, jumped from his 2011 Job as Amb

How about the fact that Secretary of State is like the most important cabinet position and it not going to a Democrat would not even be close to being contemplated?
11  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CIA Veteran Evan McMullin launching presidential bid on: August 08, 2016, 07:23:56 pm

Yeah.  I thought David French was at the bottom of the barrel, but they managed to find someone even more unknown.

At least this fella has a Wikipedia page

...created only a few hours before the announcement.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: CIA Veteran Evan McMullin launching presidential bid on: August 08, 2016, 12:30:36 pm
It's actually kind of impressive they managed to find someone again with no preexisting Wikipedia article.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Hillary to Police: Don't Endorse Me on: August 07, 2016, 02:07:53 pm
Not seeking one's endorsement=snubbing. Right.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Site that 'unbiases' polls shows Trump is actually ahead on: August 07, 2016, 12:55:05 pm
Could easily be a new election rule (à la those given by poster J. J.):
Whichever side "unskews" the polls is going to lose.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: August 07, 2016, 08:31:47 am
Clinton now also ahead in Arizona according to the polls-only forecast. Still, how ridiculously polarized is this country when only a handful of states can possibly flip given the expected vote margin? For a stunning contrast, compare with the 1988 election.
16  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Civil War in Syria on: July 31, 2016, 12:20:16 pm
It's worth mentioning that al-Nusra has now dissociated itself from Al-Qaeda, although the consensus seems to be not to overstate the importance of this.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: How does the GOP get a new base for their primaries? on: July 30, 2016, 07:35:17 pm
I don't see how, in light of what just happened, the Republicans won't follow the Democrats and force all primaries from now on to award delegates (at least somewhat) proportionally.
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: July 30, 2016, 07:30:26 pm
Trump doing better in the polls-only forecast than the now-cast would suggest a DNC bounce, as the latter is more aggressive in response to new polls.
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Who will succeed Netanyahu as Israel's Prime Minister, and when? on: July 28, 2016, 04:06:01 pm
I do like another plan more, it is called the Palestinian emirates plan and was made by Dr. Mordechai Kedar. http://www.palestinianemirates.com/

Holy apartheid, Batman! And this wouldn't be Bantustans on steroids because of what exactly? Because he gave them the more palatable-sounding term "emirates" instead? At least the original Bantustans were mostly larger than mere cities.

If people are really this deluded to think the plans mentioned here count as either "peaceful" or even realistic, then it's more likely a future Prime Minister of Israel will end up being called Marwan Barghouti (cf. once again South Africa).
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: McAuliffe say Clinton is willing to walk back on TPP. Then reverses his comments on: July 27, 2016, 01:09:00 pm
The worst kind of campaign blunders are those that reinforce negative perceptions of the candidate (see e.g. Romney). In this case it's Mrs. Says Anything To Get Elected.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/27/why-terry-mcauliffes-tpp-gaffe-is-so-damaging-for-hillary-clinton/
21  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What is the chance of an October surprise? on: July 27, 2016, 08:22:58 am
This whole election cycle has been one big October surprise, so the rule of irony dictates there will be none.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Democratic National Convention **live commentary thread** on: July 25, 2016, 03:57:01 pm
How do you do, fellow kids? They're actually streaming this on Twitch.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: In wake of email scandal, Sanders renews call for DWS to resign as DNC chair on: July 24, 2016, 01:14:58 pm
Is this the part where she calls him a self-hating Jew?
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Should Hillary make a pledge to serve only one term? on: July 24, 2016, 06:57:27 am
Does anyone happen to remember whether McCain made some noise in that direction in 2008?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump offered to basically make Kasich president, Trump lead cheerleader on: July 20, 2016, 12:02:32 pm
Because if there is anything this country needs, it's a Cheney on steroids.
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