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May 02, 2016, 04:26:28 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Last Indiana poll on: Today at 02:26:29 pm
I think many Republican voters last week voted for Trump despite not being particularly enthusiastic about him just to close ranks and the same will happen here.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's over. on: April 30, 2016, 07:41:53 am
Quote
You seriously believe he's not an awfully good fit for that state?

Given that the only 2 West Virginians that I know are vastly in the tank for Cruz? I don't see it.

I guess you can't argue with a sample size like that.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: It's over. on: April 30, 2016, 07:37:12 am
Why do all of these predictions have West Virginia for Trump?

You seriously believe he's not an awfully good fit for that state?
4  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Does Trumpism, as a movement that goes beyond the man himself, exist? on: April 29, 2016, 02:35:36 pm
I find Trump's rhetoric very similar to those of European far-right populists. It wouldn't surprise me if he's been taking a cue from the likes of Geert Wilders et al.
5  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grassley: FBI could leak Clinton email investigation on: April 25, 2016, 11:29:48 am
But a leak would *not* be political?
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Cruz is incapable of winning a general election, & Trump is a stronger candidate on: April 24, 2016, 05:14:45 am
I think Cruz doing better than Trump in head-to-head match-ups right now could be explained by him having a higher floor of support.
7  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: BREAKING: Trump calls on Kasich to change spelling of his name on: April 24, 2016, 04:28:32 am
Yet another reason why The Onion might as well close up shop.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK 'Brexit' Referendum on the EU on: April 23, 2016, 06:37:27 pm
Surely many voters will realize that a Brexit could precipitate a new, possibly successful push for Scottish independence, which must affect their eventual decision.
9  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: If Trump wins the Presidency, what are his chances of impeachment? on: April 22, 2016, 03:09:50 pm
Is that just impeachment or also conviction?

Zero percent. He's not winning.

You need to look up how "conditional probability" works.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: VP Biden: US Feels Overwhelming Frustration with Israeli Government on: April 20, 2016, 04:34:28 pm
Also, the ridiculous claim that the "occupation" is causing the violence in Israel is beyond stupid.

Is no one going to call this clown out on the use of these scare quotes? It's amazing the kind of cognitive dissonance a person can conjure in order to deny basic reality because just a factual description of it ("occupation") is by itself already so discomforting. In a way, it's an admission of guilt.
11  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Treasury Sec. to announce Harriet Tubman will replace Jackson on the $20 bill on: April 20, 2016, 12:23:09 pm
Perfect choice, both with respect to who comes off and who gets on.
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Delegates on: April 20, 2016, 08:37:11 am
No, because Trump is not yet guaranteed to win a plurality of delegates.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Trump's fifty-fifty target on: April 20, 2016, 08:21:01 am
How many pledged delegates would Donald Trump have to win for you to say that his chance of winning the Republican nomination (on the first ballot or otherwise) would be the closest to 50%?
14  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: VP Biden: US Feels Overwhelming Frustration with Israeli Government on: April 20, 2016, 08:15:52 am
Anyone believing a Hillary presidency would be fundamentally different on this than Obama's could be in for a rude awakening; the (very slow) change in attitude of the United States towards Israel is simply the result of reality dawning on them. I expect the taboo of a binational state in U.S. discourse to fall in a few years.
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Does Kasich collapse if Cruz beats him in New York? on: April 17, 2016, 05:48:41 pm
Something cannot collapse when it's already lying on the ground.
16  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / The Donald Trump martyrdom conspiracy theory on: April 17, 2016, 08:40:59 am
If it's Trump's (somewhat) secret intention to lose the nomination in a backhanded fashion, allowing him to simultaneously play the martyr while not having any of the responsibility of governing (a la Samuel J. Tilden), then one must admit he's doing a perfect job so far.
This idea may be somewhat out there, but I see it mentioned more and more.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Trump/Sanders Unity Ticket on: April 11, 2016, 02:46:32 pm
Just say no to drugs.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Congressional Elections / House in play? on: April 10, 2016, 09:32:35 am
Can the knowledgeable people here give their opinion on how realistic this assessment is?
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Dutch Elections & Politics (Today: Ukraine Referendum) on: April 06, 2016, 02:05:37 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Participation_criterion#Quorum_requirements
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls / Re: WI ARG: Trump +10, Clinton +1 on: April 05, 2016, 01:52:15 pm
To those who hadn't figured it out already, ARG seems to be blocked outside the States. Wayback Machine to the rescue:

https://web.archive.org/web/http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/rep/wirep.html
https://web.archive.org/web/http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/widem.html
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Huge document leak exposes offshore accounts of world leaders on: April 05, 2016, 11:03:16 am
The Icelandic prime minister has become the first victim over this.
22  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: GOP Strategy for a Brokered Convention on: April 02, 2016, 08:26:49 pm
Unless I'm missing something here, option 1 is simply impossible.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Can Any Republican Win Like President Obama? on: April 02, 2016, 08:02:08 pm
That map is for a 16-point PV vote win.

D+8 means 58-42 (50+8), not D by 8 points (that would be D+4).

Where did you get that idea? Nobody else means it that way.
24  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Grassley reconsidering holding Garland hearings after Iowan outcry on: April 01, 2016, 06:03:13 pm
But couldn't this get him primaried instead?
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Most damaging to the GOP on: March 29, 2016, 01:23:14 pm
Try not just to have November in mind here.
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