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December 11, 2016, 01:07:43 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands (GE March 15, 2017) on: December 07, 2016, 02:02:08 pm
A (mostly) nonpartisan government of technocrats (like one Monti lead in Italy) might possibly provide a solution after the next election, although you have to go back to the 19th century for Dutch examples.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 06, 2016, 05:14:11 pm
I guess many people in the rural areas, ESPECIALLY in the tourism-dominated western states, also re-considered for VdB because of what a Hofer-win would mean to tourism: It could have created a bad image abroad and tourists would have stayed away.

Did Austria's tourism sector get any noticeable hit after the FP entered government in 2000?

not a fair comparison cause of the EU sanctions.

I'm still genuinely curious to know.
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Italian Constitutional Referendum, 12/04/2016 on: December 04, 2016, 05:43:35 pm
Brexit, Trump, Renzi gone.  What a 2016 Hat-trick.

One of these things is not like the others, being that governments falling in Italy is like the national sport and all.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 04, 2016, 12:33:39 pm
I guess many people in the rural areas, ESPECIALLY in the tourism-dominated western states, also re-considered for VdB because of what a Hofer-win would mean to tourism: It could have created a bad image abroad and tourists would have stayed away.

Did Austria's tourism sector get any noticeable hit after the FP entered government in 2000?
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016) on: December 04, 2016, 11:49:27 am
So what exactly happened? Why did Hofer lose so badly?

My guesses are:
  • Pushback against/fear of complacency after Brexit and Trump.
  • Relegitimization of the previous run.
6  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Obama/Trump voters on: December 02, 2016, 09:17:16 pm
Anyone able to make an educated guess how many there were?
7  General Discussion / Constitution and Law / Re: State courts and federal constitutionality on: November 30, 2016, 10:30:42 am
Found an answer to my own question in the form of Silverman v. Campbell, in which the South Carolina Supreme Court voided the parts of the state constitution that bar atheists from public office.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands (GE March 15, 2017) on: November 30, 2016, 07:40:06 am
The latest peilingwijzer:

And here is an online tool to find the theoretical majority coalitions for a given distribution of seats. The (ideological) coherence of these will also be scored closer to the election.

The polls are indeed not looking good in terms of governability.
9  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump spreads propaganda about millions of "fake voters" - claims he won PV on: November 27, 2016, 06:58:28 pm
Wow, even in victory, his ego can't stop him from being petty. Enjoy your man-child-in-chief, America.
10  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 22, 2016, 07:37:23 pm
Why not throw in Artur Davis while we're at it?
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: November 21, 2016, 07:14:11 pm
So France is pretty much Poland now, where the choice is between neo-liberal and reactionary.
12  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Transition Team/Cabinet Thread on: November 19, 2016, 07:12:13 pm
The world could have much worse than a Secretary of State Mitt Romney.
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: French presidential election, April 23rd & May 7th, 2017 on: November 18, 2016, 07:26:37 pm
Can we expect a significant amount of tactical voting in the first round? Certainly, the left wouldn't want a repeat of 2002.
14  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: So what's next for Hillary? on: November 18, 2016, 07:03:56 pm
I cannot even begin to fathom how anyone could seriously entertain the notion that Hillary's political career is anything but completely destroyed, after having the Presidency all but handed to her on a silver platter from the very beginning, only to still blow it against a candidate like Trump.
15  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner for a cabinet position? on: November 18, 2016, 06:49:57 pm
#DrainTheSwamp
Yes, drain the swamp and then start a different trend: nepotism.

The kind which would make Suharto blush.
16  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Trump U California settlement for possible 20-25 million $ in the making on: November 18, 2016, 06:46:54 pm
I'd like to know where exactly that money will come from.
17  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Will Trump try to get rid of Obergefell vs. Hodges? on: November 12, 2016, 05:16:32 pm
Who exactly would have standing to ask for gay marriage to be overturned?
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Opinion of Nate Silver's Forecast Map on: November 08, 2016, 06:13:32 pm
Here's the forecast with proper shading:



FiveThirtyEight is also doing a live video.
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2020 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: no on: November 08, 2016, 05:10:03 pm
Curse you, muscle memory!
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: I will now accept my accolades on: November 08, 2016, 03:59:41 pm
I hope you people who recognize this, realize this was 12 years ago. I hope you feel old now.
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Which counries would be classified as neither republics nor monarchies? on: November 07, 2016, 07:00:10 pm
France definitely is in between.

I think you misunderstood the question. He was not asking for countries that have neither a presidential nor a parliamentary system.
22  General Politics / U.S. General Discussion / Re: Michelle Obama Emerges as a Powerful Political Force on: November 07, 2016, 06:56:27 pm
Michelle is a much bigger feminist than Hillary could ever hope to be by refusing to piggyback on her husband to jump start a political career.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: If the Libertarian Party breaks 5%, should they be denied federal funding? on: November 07, 2016, 06:42:45 pm
Accepting funding would be an admission that money has an undue influence in elections, and therefore in life generally, undermining the whole ideology of libertarianism in the first place. It would be like the Confederacy arming slaves.
24  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Maine's 2nd congressional district on: November 07, 2016, 06:02:29 pm
Go.
25  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: 538 Model Megathread on: November 07, 2016, 05:15:13 pm
How can you people be angry at an algorithm? Seriously, does Obamacare cover Nate Silver Derangement Syndrome?
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