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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Which party would Theresa May be a member of in the US? on: August 10, 2016, 09:44:23 am
I can see her being a Republican.
2  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: At what point during pregnancy do you personally think life begins? on: August 05, 2016, 08:49:27 pm
Conception.
3  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Poll abortion death penalty on: July 28, 2016, 10:28:26 pm
Pro-life, pro-death penalty (mainly for rapists/murderers and other extremely serious crimes)
4  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Presidential Election Trends / Re: Who will be President in 2024? on: July 28, 2016, 07:48:19 am
Ryan, Haley or maybe Rubio. Can see Gardner or Cotton being Vice-President, to name two.
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you support National ID cards? on: July 21, 2016, 07:04:22 am
No (most people have driver's licences, proof of age cards, or other forms of ID already)
6  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Would you support a law preventing spouses and close relatives of Presidents... on: July 18, 2016, 06:50:11 pm
As much as I dislike Hillary Clinton, for example, this idea is moronic and unconstitutional. No.
7  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Choose a coalition government for the U.S. on: July 15, 2016, 07:22:07 pm
8  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Pauline Hanson on: July 13, 2016, 10:30:28 am
HP, one of my least favourite Australian politicians (not a racialist poof, unlike this guy...)

Better than the liberals, but pretty awful.

Why do you prefer Pauline bloomin' Hanson of all people over the Liberals?
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Theresa May on: July 12, 2016, 08:35:58 am
Preferred Andrea Leadsom, but still an FF on balance. She has a good chance of becoming my favourite UK Prime Minister to serve to my lifetime to date.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 10, 2016, 08:38:51 am
Greater Sydney



Great maps as always, Smid!

Labor at 50.06% of national 2pp, retaking the lead.

Not according to the AEC.

National two-party preferred
Turnout: 72.11%
Party / Coalition   Votes                         Vote %   Swing %
Liberal/National Coalition   5,354,596   50.13   -3.36
Australian Labor Party      5,326,493      49.87     +3.36

But, it seems there's been about a 2.3% increase in informal Senate ballots, code for "people didn't understand the new voting rules"

It's not that hard people... unless that many people were protesting/defacing their ballots? Unlikely if you ask me.
11  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Guess which politician the previous poster likes better on: July 09, 2016, 10:31:03 pm
Wilders.

Malcolm Turnbull or John Key?
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Guess which politician the previous poster likes better on: July 09, 2016, 04:15:31 am
Carter.

Andrea Leadsom or Tony Abbott?
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Tory Election, pick your poison. on: July 07, 2016, 07:39:06 am
Leadsom!
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 06, 2016, 11:23:16 pm
Bob Katter throws support behind Coalition, if they do not gain a majority.
15  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1944 Republican primaries on: July 06, 2016, 09:26:05 am

With Stassen as my 3rd pick.
16  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Favorite State That Favors Your Political Opposition? on: July 05, 2016, 11:23:23 am
Australian State/Territory: Victoria
American State: Maybe one of the New England states? I'll say Massachusetts.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: July 05, 2016, 09:12:53 am
So how many seats do the CLP win?

Most likely low single digits, or even a complete wipe-out, with very safe CLP seats going independent.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Territory Elections, 2016 on: July 04, 2016, 07:58:54 pm
Both of the Australian mainland territories have elections this year.

The first (and funniest) is the 27th August Northern Territory election. The present CLP NT government is one of the biggest farces you will ever see (so much so that I can't even begin to really cover it). After coming in to power with a historic swing against Labor by rural aboriginal voters, everything just ... fell apart immediately (there was a by-election almost immediately afterwards with a +12.4 swing towards the ALP.

They lost their first Chief Minister in less than a year, kicked off in a coup. The new CM Adam Giles, would narrowly avoid the same fate in a ludicrously botched coup himself. His government has been characterised by gaffes (homphobia, misogyny and general stupidity) from him and his senior ministers, by scandals that would be ludicrous in a parish council (like selling off the lease to the Chinese for a completely unspecified sum, a stream of leaks and backstabbing, insane instability at the top levels (there have been seven deputy chief ministers and at least 15 cabinet reshuffles), trying to impeach the Speaker (who is a hilarious person who openly bitches about federal politicians on social media) only to have the parliament immediately reelect her on the secret ballot, the defection of the aboriginal MP's to Palmer United, the defection of the party President, the loss of the majority due to further defections, slush fund allegations, the sacking of the police comissioner and an endless saga surrounding developments on Port Melville (and whether it legally is a port just because it's called "port". Right now its rising star Nathan Barret has been disgraced and kicked from the party for sending videos of himself masturbating to a constituent.

With that in mind, the Labor party under Michael Gunner should have no illusions that he won't be next Chief Minister. Various independents have reason to be cheerful as well. But the CLP itself is in a desperate battle for every single seat they have - there is some talk that it is the last election the (formerly dominant) party will ever contest under the name.

ACT election will be less fun though. The chamber is bigger than last election, with five five-member electorates. No idea who that helps.



What do you think will happen to the CLP? Do you think it will be replaced by a territorial division of the Liberals? As for the ACT, can't see Labor losing government there.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016 on: July 04, 2016, 07:48:27 pm
An Analysis of the seat of swan, where I live would be nice.
Interesting one, was a bit of a disappointment for Labor on the night for mine, because I felt it was gonna be marginal, but no it looks safe-ish for Irons. Looking at the booths, it looks like the swing was patchy, but it appears that Labor did better in the eastern, more swingy booths than the more solidly Liberal Western booths (there's a huge East-West divide here, the West is very much blue blood Liberal, but the rest of the seat is much more swingy). This pattern was not atypical this election, in many seats the Labor vote swung the most in the more naturally Labor-leaning areas.

Probably Anton Kreitzer might know this part of the world better than me, I'm from the other side of the country Tongue

AK reporting here, regarding Swan, while Labor did either win back or improve their performance in a lot of the east of the seat (Cannington, Belmont/Kewdale/Redcliffe, the High Wycombe area from Hasluck, which tends to vote with the overall winner), the strongly Liberal South Perth/Como area held up really well, and indeed, the Liberals got a swing TO them in most of the South Perth and Como booths. In most booths, the swing to Labor was not enough to win back the seat, and areas like Rivervale (the area of Belmont near the casino and new stadium) are getting better for the Liberals.

Irons' incumbency would have helped as well, and also, voters differentiating between state and federal issues. Speaking of which, in next year's state election, expect a big swing to Labor in the state seats of Belmont (most of the northeast of Swan) and Forrestfield (where High Wycombe is, most of this seat is in neighbouring Hasluck).

If you'd like analysis of any other WA seats, feel free to ask Smiley
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you support SafeSpace zones in colleges? on: July 04, 2016, 07:28:09 pm
No (doesn't believe people should be wrapped in cotton wool or bubbles)
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Do you agree or disagree with the FDA's decision to ban trans fats? on: July 04, 2016, 07:21:28 pm
Absolutely not (all a bit asinine for my liking)
22  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: What should be the legal driving age? on: July 03, 2016, 08:09:05 pm
16 for permit, 17 for licence, and make the test harder. Don't do stupid things like passenger restrictions though.
23  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Justin Trudeau on: July 03, 2016, 08:06:48 pm
Not a fan at all (or for that matter, of his father). Definite HP, I miss Harper Sad
24  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1992 two way race, who would you vote for? on: July 03, 2016, 09:55:46 am
Bush, with or without Perot/other third-party candidates in the running.
25  General Politics / Political Debate / Re: U.S. referendum on: July 02, 2016, 08:16:49 am
Given the structure of the US government (strong state/county governments), and constitutional processes, I can't really see any US-wide referendum actually happening.

If one did happen, maybe something like leaving NAFTA?
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