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January 31, 2015, 05:08:22 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: By-elections of the 44th Australian Parliament (2013-2016) on: January 30, 2015, 09:47:57 pm
I'll go for a Liberal hold, but for Labor to gain around a 5% swing. As I said on another website, Labor winning Davenport is akin to Labor winning the likes of Churchlands or South Perth in WA.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: January 30, 2015, 11:27:18 am
Amazing as always Antonio, to think 1968 would have been so different... makes you wonder how it would have affected future third-party candidacies in this TL.
3  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Favorite Mario Brother on: January 29, 2015, 07:42:59 pm
Mario, although it was a tough choice, given that Luigi can jump higher, for example. On the other hand, Mario has a better golf drive.
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1976 Primaries on: January 28, 2015, 06:41:50 am
As much as I'm a big fan of Reagan, I'm backing the incumbent President.
5  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Donna Summer on: January 27, 2015, 10:13:35 am
I'll have to go with FF, particularly her rendition of MacArthur Park, and other hits such as Hot Stuff and On the Radio.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 27, 2015, 02:12:09 am
I've been doing predictions myself, including Google Earth versions of them (feel free to PM me if you'd like to see those) Will make final revisions day before election day:

KEY:
LNP
ALP
ALP by-election gain
KAP
Independent

Albert - Generally a marginal seat, and keenly contested by both major parties. LNP to hold on with a swing against them.
Algester - Not as safe for the ALP as the past may indicate, however it should be re-gained in 2015.
Ashgrove - Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands - we could see a situation where Newman loses his seat while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.
Aspley - LNP retain.
Barron River - Key contest, LNP favoured.
Beaudesert - Should be an easy LNP retain, with the former KAP leader not contesting, and a general decline in the KAP vote.
Brisbane Central - Robert Cavallucci is a hardworking MP, and although his seat may be trending LNP, it will be difficult for him to hold on in 2015. ALP gain.
Broadwater - More LNP (and National) than ALP historically, should be held by the LNP despite poor performance from the sitting member.
Buderim - Easy LNP retain.
Bulimba - One of the first seats the ALP will re-gain.
Bundaberg - LNP retain, considering the trend to the LNP here. The ALP would have to do really well to win Bundaberg back.
Bundamba - Easy ALP retain.
Burdekin - Labor will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Burleigh - Likely LNP retain, given the traditional LNP strength on the Gold Coast.
Burnett - Easy LNP hold, unless another independent, KAP or even PUP poll strongly, which isn't likely.
Cairns - Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.
Callide - LNP retain, with John Bjelke-Petersen coming second.
Caloundra - Easy LNP retain.
Capalaba - Likely ALP gain, the only Redlands area seat which the ALP have a good chance of taking back in 2015.
Chatsworth - Key contest, likely LNP hold, as the area seems to have trended to them at both levels of government.
Clayfield - LNP retain.
Cleveland - LNP retain, unless the ALP are on track for a sizeable majority.
Condamine - LNP re-gain, although the KAP's Ben Hopper, son of former member Ray Hopper, should come second.
Cook - Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.
Coomera - LNP retain, although with a significantly reduced majority.
Currumbin - LNP retain, given the trend to the conservatives here.
Dalrymple - Easy hold for Shane Knuth.
Everton - Tradtionally an ALP seat, the LNP could hold on here in 2015.
Ferny Grove - Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Gaven - Alex Douglas contesting re-election as an independent, along with the swing away from the LNP, could make this interesting. LNP hold for now, unless Douglas takes a sizeable portion of the vote, which may not flow back as preferences.
Gladstone - Easy ALP gain, given that Liz Cunningham is retiring.
Glass House - LNP retain, and should remain with the LNP on the current boundaries.
Greenslopes - Greenslopes' bellwether history could come to a close - while it's gone with the government since 1960, it's very much low-hanging fruit, and with former MLA Cameron Dick running for the ALP, they stand a good chance here.
Gregory - Easy LNP retain.
Gympie - Easy LNP retain.
Hervey Bay - LNP retain.
Hinchinbrook - Should be an easy LNP hold.
Inala - The ALP's safest seat at the 2012 election, and with its member Annastacia Palaszczuk now Opposition Leader, it should become a lot safer.
Indooroopilly - LNP retain.
Ipswich - ALP gain.
Ipswich West - Likely ALP gain.
Kallangur - Possible LNP retain in a tight contest.
Kawana - Easy LNP retain.
Keppel - Hard to call, the area has leaned conservative generally, right up until 2004, although Vince Lester was a long-serving MP, and no doubt had a decent personal vote. Likely ALP gain.
Lockyer - LNP retain, despite the seat being one of Pauline Hanson's many perennial candidacies.
Logan - One the ALP will definitely win back.
Lytton - Easy ALP gain.
Mackay - Easy ALP retain.
Mansfield - Likely LNP retain, with a significant cut to the margin.
Maroochydore - Easy LNP retain.
Maryborough - With Chris Foley re-contesting and an anti-LNP swing looming, this will be one to watch. I'd say Foley wins this back.
Mermaid Beach - Easy LNP retain.
Mirani - Traditionally a conservative-leaning seat, Mirani absorbed much of the old ALP seat of Fitzroy prior to the 2009 election. With former Fitzroy MLA Jim Pearce recontesting after losing in 2009, along with incumbent member Ted Malone retiring, this is looking like an ALP gain.
Moggill - Easy LNP retain.
Morayfield - Darren Grimwade might be a hardworking MP, but it's hard to see him holding on here in 2015.
Mount Coot-tha - One of the best seats for the Greens in Queensland, this should return to the ALP on the back of a general swing in their direction.
Mount Isa - Should be a fairly easy retain for Rob Katter, and Labor will likely come second, on the back of an anti-LNP swing.
Mount Ommaney - Very much a toss-up, although the Liberals did win here in 1995. I'd go for an LNP retain.
Mudgeeraba - Easy LNP retain.
Mulgrave - Easy ALP retain, particularly given the vote split between the LNP and KAP.
Mundingburra - A bellwether seat, Mundingburra will possibly stay with the LNP in 2015. If the ALP win this back, they will have likely won government.
Murrumba - Key seat, likely to go back to the ALP on current polling.
Nanango - Possible LNP retain, given that Ray Hopper, member for Condamine, is running here in 2015, and could benefit from an anti-LNP swing. This being said, the LNP should hold.
Nicklin - Peter Wellington will win again.
Noosa - Easy LNP retain.
Nudgee - ALP gain.
Pine Rivers - Should be an LNP hold, although the ALP will gnaw off a fair chunk of the margin.
Pumicestone - Key seat, if Labor win this they will most likely be back in government. Should be an LNP hold.
Redcliffe - Will likely be held by the ALP, although with a correction towards the LNP in this tradtionally competitive seat.
Redlands - Despite the controversy surrounding the soon-to-be former member, LNP retain.
Rockhampton - Easy ALP retain.
Sandgate - ALP gain.
South Brisbane - Easy ALP retain.
Southern Downs - The only question here is whether the ALP or KAP come second here.
Southport - Likely LNP retain.
Springwood - Likely LNP retain.
Stafford - The ALP will hold on here, this would have been difficult for the LNP to hold, even without the 2014 by-election.
Stretton - Unless David Forde polls strongly again, and the LNP don't lose too much of their primary vote, ALP gain.
Sunnybank - Given the history in this seat and the likely anti-LNP swing, ALP gain.
Surfers Paradise - Easy LNP retain.
Thuringowa - Will likely revert to an LNP-ALP race in 2015, with Labor in a decent position to re-gain.
Toowoomba North - Traditonally a conservative-leaning seat, Toowoomba North will be hotly contested by both the LNP and ALP. LNP hold in a close one.
Toowoomba South - LNP retain.
Townsville - While Townsville has tended to be a marginal seat, it has had a Labor lean, and the ALP should regain it.
Warrego - Easy LNP retain.
Waterford - Definite ALP gain.
Whitsunday - With the collapse in the KAP vote, along with the seat's history, a very tight contest ensues. Narrow LNP hold for now.
Woodridge - Easy ALP retain.
Yeerongpilly - ALP gain, with the real question being: Does Carl Judge poll like Geoff Shaw, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, or Adele Carles?

On these predictions:

LNP - 50
ALP - 35
Independent - 2
KAP - 2

Just a nitpick here - Dick is running in Woodridge, not Greenslopes.

Overall though good stuff.

Thanks, will amend that now - obviously remembered him being the pre-2012 member in Greenslopes.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Queensland State Election- January 31, 2015 on: January 26, 2015, 08:41:36 pm
I've been doing predictions myself, including Google Earth versions of them (feel free to PM me if you'd like to see those) Will make final revisions day before election day:

KEY:
LNP
ALP
ALP by-election gain
KAP
Independent

Albert - Generally a marginal seat, and keenly contested by both major parties. LNP to hold on with a swing against them.
Algester - Not as safe for the ALP as the past may indicate, however it should be re-gained in 2015.
Ashgrove - Premier Newman has a VERY tough fight on his hands - we could see a situation where Newman loses his seat while the LNP is returned for a second term. With popular MLA Kate Jones coming back for a re-match, this will likely be re-gained by the ALP.
Aspley - LNP retain.
Barron River - Key contest, LNP favoured.
Beaudesert - Should be an easy LNP retain, with the former KAP leader not contesting, and a general decline in the KAP vote.
Brisbane Central - Robert Cavallucci is a hardworking MP, and although his seat may be trending LNP, it will be difficult for him to hold on in 2015. ALP gain.
Broadwater - More LNP (and National) than ALP historically, should be held by the LNP despite poor performance from the sitting member.
Buderim - Easy LNP retain.
Bulimba - One of the first seats the ALP will re-gain.
Bundaberg - LNP retain, considering the trend to the LNP here. The ALP would have to do really well to win Bundaberg back.
Bundamba - Easy ALP retain.
Burdekin - Labor will come second here, but the LNP will retain.
Burleigh - Likely LNP retain, given the traditional LNP strength on the Gold Coast.
Burnett - Easy LNP hold, unless another independent, KAP or even PUP poll strongly, which isn't likely.
Cairns - Another key contest, one the LNP could hold onto despite the trend, and the Labor history in the seat. This being said, the ALP should re-gain this, although not on a big margin.
Callide - LNP retain, with John Bjelke-Petersen coming second.
Caloundra - Easy LNP retain.
Capalaba - Likely ALP gain, the only Redlands area seat which the ALP have a good chance of taking back in 2015.
Chatsworth - Key contest, likely LNP hold, as the area seems to have trended to them at both levels of government.
Clayfield - LNP retain.
Cleveland - LNP retain, unless the ALP are on track for a sizeable majority.
Condamine - LNP re-gain, although the KAP's Ben Hopper, son of former member Ray Hopper, should come second.
Cook - Despite the low LNP margin, Cook could prove to be a tough nut for the ALP to crack. This being said, the ALP are running a quality candidate here, and would have to be favoured.
Coomera - LNP retain, although with a significantly reduced majority.
Currumbin - LNP retain, given the trend to the conservatives here.
Dalrymple - Easy hold for Shane Knuth.
Everton - Tradtionally an ALP seat, the LNP could hold on here in 2015.
Ferny Grove - Perhaps a future bellwether, if federal results in the area are anything to go by. This is a real nail-biter, and to be honest, I think the ALP will narrowly win this back.
Gaven - Alex Douglas contesting re-election as an independent, along with the swing away from the LNP, could make this interesting. LNP hold for now, unless Douglas takes a sizeable portion of the vote, which may not flow back as preferences.
Gladstone - Easy ALP gain, given that Liz Cunningham is retiring.
Glass House - LNP retain, and should remain with the LNP on the current boundaries.
Greenslopes - Greenslopes' bellwether history could come to a close - while it's gone with the government since 1960, it's very much low-hanging fruit, and the ALP stands a good chance here. I think Mansfield and Mundingburra, this election pending, are better seats to use as bellwethers in the future.
Gregory - Easy LNP retain.
Gympie - Easy LNP retain.
Hervey Bay - LNP retain.
Hinchinbrook - Should be an easy LNP hold.
Inala - The ALP's safest seat at the 2012 election, and with its member Annastacia Palaszczuk now Opposition Leader, it should become a lot safer.
Indooroopilly - LNP retain.
Ipswich - ALP gain.
Ipswich West - Likely ALP gain.
Kallangur - Possible LNP retain in a tight contest.
Kawana - Easy LNP retain.
Keppel - Hard to call, the area has leaned conservative generally, right up until 2004, although Vince Lester was a long-serving MP, and no doubt had a decent personal vote. Likely ALP gain.
Lockyer - LNP retain, despite the seat being one of Pauline Hanson's many perennial candidacies.
Logan - One the ALP will definitely win back.
Lytton - Easy ALP gain.
Mackay - Easy ALP retain.
Mansfield - Likely LNP retain, with a significant cut to the margin.
Maroochydore - Easy LNP retain.
Maryborough - With Chris Foley re-contesting and an anti-LNP swing looming, this will be one to watch. I'd say Foley wins this back.
Mermaid Beach - Easy LNP retain.
Mirani - Traditionally a conservative-leaning seat, Mirani absorbed much of the old ALP seat of Fitzroy prior to the 2009 election. With former Fitzroy MLA Jim Pearce recontesting after losing in 2009, along with incumbent member Ted Malone retiring, this is looking like an ALP gain.
Moggill - Easy LNP retain.
Morayfield - Darren Grimwade might be a hardworking MP, but it's hard to see him holding on here in 2015.
Mount Coot-tha - One of the best seats for the Greens in Queensland, this should return to the ALP on the back of a general swing in their direction.
Mount Isa - Should be a fairly easy retain for Rob Katter, and Labor will likely come second, on the back of an anti-LNP swing.
Mount Ommaney - Very much a toss-up, although the Liberals did win here in 1995. I'd go for an LNP retain.
Mudgeeraba - Easy LNP retain.
Mulgrave - Easy ALP retain, particularly given the vote split between the LNP and KAP.
Mundingburra - A bellwether seat, Mundingburra will possibly stay with the LNP in 2015. If the ALP win this back, they will have likely won government.
Murrumba - Key seat, likely to go back to the ALP on current polling.
Nanango - Possible LNP retain, given that Ray Hopper, member for Condamine, is running here in 2015, and could benefit from an anti-LNP swing. This being said, the LNP should hold.
Nicklin - Peter Wellington will win again.
Noosa - Easy LNP retain.
Nudgee - ALP gain.
Pine Rivers - Should be an LNP hold, although the ALP will gnaw off a fair chunk of the margin.
Pumicestone - Key seat, if Labor win this they will most likely be back in government. Should be an LNP hold.
Redcliffe - Will likely be held by the ALP, although with a correction towards the LNP in this tradtionally competitive seat.
Redlands - Despite the controversy surrounding the soon-to-be former member, LNP retain.
Rockhampton - Easy ALP retain.
Sandgate - ALP gain.
South Brisbane - Easy ALP retain.
Southern Downs - The only question here is whether the ALP or KAP come second here.
Southport - Likely LNP retain.
Springwood - Likely LNP retain.
Stafford - The ALP will hold on here, this would have been difficult for the LNP to hold, even without the 2014 by-election.
Stretton - Unless David Forde polls strongly again, and the LNP don't lose too much of their primary vote, ALP gain.
Sunnybank - Given the history in this seat and the likely anti-LNP swing, ALP gain.
Surfers Paradise - Easy LNP retain.
Thuringowa - Will likely revert to an LNP-ALP race in 2015, with Labor in a decent position to re-gain.
Toowoomba North - Traditonally a conservative-leaning seat, Toowoomba North will be hotly contested by both the LNP and ALP. LNP hold in a close one.
Toowoomba South - LNP retain.
Townsville - While Townsville has tended to be a marginal seat, it has had a Labor lean, and the ALP should regain it.
Warrego - Easy LNP retain.
Waterford - Definite ALP gain.
Whitsunday - With the collapse in the KAP vote, along with the seat's history, a very tight contest ensues. Narrow LNP hold for now.
Woodridge - Easy ALP retain.
Yeerongpilly - ALP gain, with the real question being: Does Carl Judge poll like Geoff Shaw, Craig Thomson, Peter Slipper, or Adele Carles?

On these predictions:

LNP - 50
ALP - 35
Independent - 2
KAP - 2
8  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: January 26, 2015, 06:59:25 pm
I definitely approve of the format, and am looking forward to the next elections! No rush Antonio, you've done a great job on this series!
9  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: How would you characterize Front National? on: January 23, 2015, 08:16:28 pm
Xenophobia + Souverainism (regarding the EU, are they complete isolationists like the BNP/NF, or are they like UKIP in wanting Swiss-like relations?) + Islamophobia (with a fair bit of Anti-Semitism in there too).
10  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: 1920 Election (Departure from Normalcy?) on: January 22, 2015, 09:36:24 pm
Harding.
11  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: WINDOWS 10 FREE!!! on: January 22, 2015, 09:30:19 am
It's about time. Apple has been doing this for years.

Can I upgrade Windows 7 to 10 for free? I have windows on my mac for occasions when it's needed.

You sure can, provided you're running W7 SP1.
12  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of the Economic Freedom Fighters on: January 22, 2015, 04:40:21 am
Freedom Name, Mega-Horrible Party.
13  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: HYPO: 2017 French Presidential 2nd Round on: January 22, 2015, 04:38:12 am
Sarkozy, as I've said many times before, I couldn't vote for a literal fascist like Le Pen, even if she'd be deadlocked from Day 1. Plus, despite being too pro-EU for my liking, Sarkozy is much closer to my views than Le Pen. Wouldn't vote for either of them in the first round though.
14  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Favorite U.S. State Tournament CA/WA Runoff Poll on: January 20, 2015, 08:09:29 pm
Washington, because of Microsoft and Frasier being set there.
15  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of Johnny Cash on: January 19, 2015, 10:08:23 pm
Definite FF, no doubt about it.
16  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Opinion of John Denver on: January 19, 2015, 10:04:30 pm
FF, his two-disc compilation is one of my favourite CDs to play in my car.
17  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: Alternate US States on: January 19, 2015, 07:55:34 pm
Well done! It's been great following this, reading all about the alternate states, and imagining how different the US could be if these were the states.

Also, on CS, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the residents of California del Sur wanted to transfer LA County into Pacific, for political reasons. Good job on dividing up CA and TX in particular as well, along with the partitioning of Chicagoland.
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: AK's Australian Election Series - 1999 (Double Dissolution) on: January 18, 2015, 07:34:00 pm
Voting is now closed, thank you for your participation.

Looks like we have another interesting Parliament on the cards...
19  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Are you pro-sex or anti-sex? on: January 18, 2015, 05:19:53 am
Anti-sex (saving it for marriage)
20  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: AK's Australian Election Series - 1999 (Double Dissolution) on: January 18, 2015, 05:03:59 am
Australian politics has really derailed here hasn't it.

Anyway, Democrats.

Looks like it's going to come off the rails even more, based on current figures.

Also, final bump before polls close, voting time will now end at 8am AWST, or in just under 14 hours.
21  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: AK's Australian Election Series - 1999 (Double Dissolution) on: January 17, 2015, 11:30:56 am
Bump.
22  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Do you salt and pepper your food at the table? on: January 16, 2015, 12:13:55 pm
Not too often, the only food I'll put salt on by default, if there's none on there, is chips/fries. Otherwise, I taste my food first, then put some pepper on if I think it needs it.
23  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / Election What-ifs? / Re: "Who would fictional characters vote for?" omnibus thread on: January 16, 2015, 11:20:13 am
In the run up to Australia Day, here's Kingswood Country, originally on Australian TV from 1980-84:

Ted Bullpitt - A working class employee at a putty factory, generally Liberal, although would have supported One Nation in 1998 (this being said, Ted was more the type to dislike anyone and anything, rather than an Archie Bunker or Alf Garnett type).  I think Ted would have voted for Katter's Australian Party in 2013, to "bring back the Kingswood".
Thelma Bullpitt - Ted's wife, I'd say a swing voter, probably sneakily (as in not telling Ted) supported Labor in 1972, when Whitlam came into power.
Greta Bertolucci (nee Bullpitt) - Ted & Thelma's daughter, most likely Labor, both at the time and now, given her progressivism.
Craig Bullpitt - Ted & Thelma's son, a medical student, probably Labor at the time, and the Democrats in the Senate. May be a Greens voter now.
Bruno Bertolucci - Greta's husband, Labor , for similar reasons to his wife, and also because of his ethnicity (Italian) and religion (Catholicism).
Bob Bullpitt - Ted's brother, a used car salesman from Brisbane, most likely voted Liberal, This being said, Bob probably voted for the Nationals at the state level in the 1980s, and was probably tempted by Palmer United in 2013.
Merle Bullpitt - Bob's upwardly mobile wife, I'd think she'd be straight-ticket Liberal at both federal and state levels.
24  Atlas Fantasy Elections / Voting Booth / Re: Mideast Voting Booth: January 2015 Elections on: January 16, 2015, 01:57:10 am
Gubernatorial Election:
[1] Tmthforu94/TDAS04
[   ] Write-In:__________

Assembly Election:
[   ] CrabCake
[3] BMotley (MadmanMotley)
[   ] New Canadaland
[   ] EarlAW (Hatman)
[2] Spiral
[   ] Shua
[1] JohanusCalvinusLibertas (JCL)
[   ] Write-In: ____________
[   ] Write-In: ____________
25  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: AK's Australian Election Series - 1999 (Double Dissolution) on: January 15, 2015, 05:30:20 pm
Naturally Natural Law!

Great to see this back, again. Once again, you did a terrific job!

Thank you, I'll try and make sure the remaining entries are done in a more timely manner too Smiley
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